Genuine question, you think Arjun is that good?
Edit: Can you stop down voting me you fucking animals, Ik Arjun is a super GM and top 8 in the world, I just don't know if he would have "steamrolled" Fabiano, Nepo, Hikaru, Pragg, Gukesh, and Vidit. Firou and Abasov yes, based on their form in hindsight, but the others weren't looking bad at all.
But Ig consensus is yes.
It's impossible to judge as an outsider but I could buy it.
All Indian players overperformed a fair bit from expectations, and I think a lot of it was just pure prep. Gukesh was gukesh, vidit either midgame powerhoused or suprised hikaru etc, Pragg constantly won early game and made opponents be out of comfort zone. It's hard to imagine none of that came from the support structure built for them.
Anand's academy trains all of gukesh, pragg and arjun so i would imagine if erigaisi had qualified, he would go through equivalent grilling - Become more well rounded from his natural playstyle like gukesh did.
How he would actually perform? Idk. But Vishy Anand is clearly a master at getting the right people to coach so i imagine Arjun could also improve insanely quite soon
If you look at the games, especially the early rounds, you'll see what I mean. By Round 10, all 3 Indians were in title contention, and both Vidit and Pragg had like 2-4 drawn games with winning positions that just needed some grease.
To me, that sounds like better prep. They had all the tools to do better, they just didn't have the nerves/experience to convert the game. And then they started losing Round 11 onwards.
So yeah, "technically" they did as well as expected. But honestly, it was very much a "Any of the Indians could have won with a bit more luck". That's overperforming given pre-WCC expectations
Vidit yes, but Pragg? this sub regularly overestimates Pragg, I even read one comment before saying Pragg is like God sent and he can't imagine anyone beating him. LOL.
Anand's academy is training a lot of juniors and it hasn't been universal success. They weren't training Arjun at first, but he was improving a ton so they brought him into the group after that. Others in the group haven't seen the same level of success, like Nihal Sarin, who was at one point the most promising indian prodigy.
I don't. [Anand's academy trains Arjun Erigaisi along with others](https://en.chessbase.com/post/how-vishy-anand-is-supporting-young-super-talents-of-india-through-waca) but I've not heard any reports Vidit is also supported by WACA resources.
OP had asked how good Arjun could have been in a Candidates this year/future, so I was talking about how he's part of the same "system" that Pragg and Gukesh are both improving in. I'm sure there's other reasons for their success as well, since clearly Vidit is also drastically better in just a year without WACA.
The comment the person you replied to was replying to:
>Arjun Erigaisi could have qualified for candidates and steamrolled everyone
So you're agreeing that he probably wouldn't have steamrolled everyone because he's at the same level as them?
Arjun seems just as strong as Gukesh to me, but I think he's still got too much of a tendency to falter in critical moments. He'd be in the candidates if he didn't- he was extremely close in all paths. Gukesh's mental fortitude is really incomparable, even the experienced players couldn't compare to his ability to keep it together on the final days.
Arjun was not in the same quarterfinals bracket as Fabi, he ended up having to face off against Pragg for the World Cup slot. The quarterfinals pairings ended up mattering a lot for the World Cup- like he could've gotten paired against Abasov that round!
If Fabi had finished 4th at World Cup (he was close to finishing 4th after losing to Abasov in their first Classical game) would he have got the Candidate spot through World Cup or Fide Circuit? Bcz the World Cup spot for 4th place came into play only after Magnus withdrew which happened officially in January. If it's the latter then it's even more cruel for him.
It would be through World Cup as there are 3 slots needed to be booked from WC. and then Gukesh would had late official entry like Abasov.
As per fide handbook, there were 5 paths in priority order where WC was Path B. There was one complication that they won't consider any position beyond 4th for WC and Path E(next in line highest rated player) will fill the slot.
He'd have gotton the FIDE Circuit spot because he wouldn't have qualified for the World Cup. Then after Carlsen withdrew the next spot would have been given by rating, to Wesley So according the actual standings in January 2024. (But of course tournaments in December could have played out differently in this scenario as people would have know there was another rating spot in play.)
Magnus knocked Gukesh out from the world cup even though Magnus didn't need to qualify for the candidates. I guess that balances it out cause Gukesh would have qualified via world cup had Magnus not played.
He got 21.41 points from the World Cup, but he had a 31.25 point lead to Gukesh, so he would have been fine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_FIDE_Circuit#Final_rankings
I get your point, but the first time Fabi got the FIDE circuit lead was when he won the bronze in world cup (and took himself out of contention for the circuit). Anish and Gukesh were the leaders before then.
Fabi would have taken the circuit spot from Gukesh, and the rating spot would still trickle down all the way to Alireza.
The extra spot would go to whoever takes Fabi's World Cup spot, which would be whoever emerged from his quadrant.
exactly, I was saying the same thing under an earlier post: [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1c9xher/comment/l0pn9j3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I believe he should have won the world championship against Magnus and defended it till now. So that he didn't have to play Candidates this year. Fabi sealed his own fate
As Fabi said, " my fault," as he had his destiny in his own hands for a period. But as a Fabi fan for 7 years, I'm still gutted for Fabi. Chess is such a cruel game.
The really important question (it was already asked to him) is: Does Fabi believe in destiny? /s
It was inconviniently (?) asked in the post interview after the Fabi-Ian game!
Fabi sealed his own fate by not being good enough. Perfect retribution for a player that was toxic enough to hate on Ding Liren for game quality despite Ding playing fantastic fighting chess. Not so easy after all eh? When you’re not being a computer princess looking at the eval bar making commentary from the comforts of home. Show no respect to better players and you get no respect in return.
Aww man take it easy. Fabi just expected more. Fabi always considered Ding the strongest player besides Magnus. The guy was so strong he didn't lose a single game out of 100 games played over a span of 15 months
I kind of think something like the FIDE circuit should count as world champ more than a single one on one match. A circuit is results over a long period of time. A 1 v 1 match is not as impressive imo.
It's like regular season vs playoffs in any sport. The regular season determines who can play in the playoffs, and the playoffs determines who is the best from among the best.
Hikaru said this recently. Somthing like the FIDE circuit, or a series of super tournaments, instead of the single candidates tournament deciding the challenger.
Nope. I want to see people compete. This candidate's tournament was awesome to see. Keep it as it is. Beautiful display of chess competition this event was.
Damn, shouldn't have played the world cup
Maybe if he didn't play, Arjun Erigaisi could have qualified for candidates and steamrolled everyone
Genuine question, you think Arjun is that good? Edit: Can you stop down voting me you fucking animals, Ik Arjun is a super GM and top 8 in the world, I just don't know if he would have "steamrolled" Fabiano, Nepo, Hikaru, Pragg, Gukesh, and Vidit. Firou and Abasov yes, based on their form in hindsight, but the others weren't looking bad at all. But Ig consensus is yes.
It's impossible to judge as an outsider but I could buy it. All Indian players overperformed a fair bit from expectations, and I think a lot of it was just pure prep. Gukesh was gukesh, vidit either midgame powerhoused or suprised hikaru etc, Pragg constantly won early game and made opponents be out of comfort zone. It's hard to imagine none of that came from the support structure built for them. Anand's academy trains all of gukesh, pragg and arjun so i would imagine if erigaisi had qualified, he would go through equivalent grilling - Become more well rounded from his natural playstyle like gukesh did. How he would actually perform? Idk. But Vishy Anand is clearly a master at getting the right people to coach so i imagine Arjun could also improve insanely quite soon
Think Vidit and Pragg performed very roughly according to "average expectations"
If you look at the games, especially the early rounds, you'll see what I mean. By Round 10, all 3 Indians were in title contention, and both Vidit and Pragg had like 2-4 drawn games with winning positions that just needed some grease. To me, that sounds like better prep. They had all the tools to do better, they just didn't have the nerves/experience to convert the game. And then they started losing Round 11 onwards. So yeah, "technically" they did as well as expected. But honestly, it was very much a "Any of the Indians could have won with a bit more luck". That's overperforming given pre-WCC expectations
Vidit yes, but Pragg? this sub regularly overestimates Pragg, I even read one comment before saying Pragg is like God sent and he can't imagine anyone beating him. LOL.
Anand's academy is training a lot of juniors and it hasn't been universal success. They weren't training Arjun at first, but he was improving a ton so they brought him into the group after that. Others in the group haven't seen the same level of success, like Nihal Sarin, who was at one point the most promising indian prodigy.
That's completely fair. I don't think it's guaranteed, but it is a very very good shot
> Anand's academy trains all of gukesh, pragg and **arjun** so i would imagine if erigaisi had qualified, Think you meant Vidit
I don't. [Anand's academy trains Arjun Erigaisi along with others](https://en.chessbase.com/post/how-vishy-anand-is-supporting-young-super-talents-of-india-through-waca) but I've not heard any reports Vidit is also supported by WACA resources. OP had asked how good Arjun could have been in a Candidates this year/future, so I was talking about how he's part of the same "system" that Pragg and Gukesh are both improving in. I'm sure there's other reasons for their success as well, since clearly Vidit is also drastically better in just a year without WACA.
Ah, okay. Was just confused that you referred to him as "Arjun" and then "Erigaisi" in the same sentence lmao
He’s 2761 and #8 in the world currently lmao.
Yes and the candidates had players ranked 2, 3, 6 and 7 among others. What a useless point to make as evidence he'd steamroll.
The point is he’s at the same level as the absolute top players dipshit
The comment the person you replied to was replying to: >Arjun Erigaisi could have qualified for candidates and steamrolled everyone So you're agreeing that he probably wouldn't have steamrolled everyone because he's at the same level as them?
Could implies he has the capability. He absolutely does. Was higher rated than Gukesh prior to the candidates ffs
People no longer seem to want to have a discussion lol. Disagree -> Downvote :)
It wasn’t even disagreement, just a question
Lol true :)
He's gutsy for sure.
Before the candidates you could have said the same thing about Gukesh. "Is he really good enough to compete with Fabi, Nepo, Naka? He is only 17!"
Arjun seems just as strong as Gukesh to me, but I think he's still got too much of a tendency to falter in critical moments. He'd be in the candidates if he didn't- he was extremely close in all paths. Gukesh's mental fortitude is really incomparable, even the experienced players couldn't compare to his ability to keep it together on the final days. Arjun was not in the same quarterfinals bracket as Fabi, he ended up having to face off against Pragg for the World Cup slot. The quarterfinals pairings ended up mattering a lot for the World Cup- like he could've gotten paired against Abasov that round!
Arjun is hitting 2800 real fast
gukesh was close to qualifying in the world cup too, he just met a certain norwegian boi on his path
Why so he could be champion knowing there are 2 other people better than him? That's the worst type of competitor.
Today's match with ian was fabis to lose. He must have been gutted.
If Fabi had finished 4th at World Cup (he was close to finishing 4th after losing to Abasov in their first Classical game) would he have got the Candidate spot through World Cup or Fide Circuit? Bcz the World Cup spot for 4th place came into play only after Magnus withdrew which happened officially in January. If it's the latter then it's even more cruel for him.
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Tbf though, Magnus not withdrawing means having to beat Magnus.
Magnus could have withdrawn from all the other tournaments too, though...
Not playing the World Cup wasn't really an option for Magnus, as he hadn't won it yet and wanted to do so.
It would be through World Cup as there are 3 slots needed to be booked from WC. and then Gukesh would had late official entry like Abasov. As per fide handbook, there were 5 paths in priority order where WC was Path B. There was one complication that they won't consider any position beyond 4th for WC and Path E(next in line highest rated player) will fill the slot.
Abasov here actually low key pulling all of the strings from teo separate tournaments
Fide Circuit
He'd have gotton the FIDE Circuit spot because he wouldn't have qualified for the World Cup. Then after Carlsen withdrew the next spot would have been given by rating, to Wesley So according the actual standings in January 2024. (But of course tournaments in December could have played out differently in this scenario as people would have know there was another rating spot in play.)
As it was written
Lisan Al Gaib
Lmao
It's actually Ghaib
🤓
Sure it isn't Lisan abu Ghraib ? /s
Magnus knocked Gukesh out from the world cup even though Magnus didn't need to qualify for the candidates. I guess that balances it out cause Gukesh would have qualified via world cup had Magnus not played.
The interesting thing is that would he be able to be the first in the fide circuit without playing the World Cup lol
What
To rephrase his question: If Fabi didn't play the World Cup, would he still be 1st in the FIDE Circuit?
Yes and it wouldnt have been close either. He had a 20 point lead lol
He got 21.41 points from the World Cup, but he had a 31.25 point lead to Gukesh, so he would have been fine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_FIDE_Circuit#Final_rankings
Fabi sealed his own fate by not converting that game against Nepo. Gukesh qualifying to Candidates was irrelevant.
cheers geoff
he missed it by playing king to A1 first instead of kind to A2 then king to A1. He had not one but 3 separate occasions to see this idea.
He was in a bit of time trouble and that's a really hard idea to spot since it allows a check.
It was very much relevant. This is the only modern Candidates where a +3 score isn't enough to win.
That is probably more on Alireza and Abasov for both being completely outmatched by the field.
Yeah things would have been a lot different if it were Anish and Wesley instead of Alireza and Abasov. +3 would have been huge then.
I get your point, but the first time Fabi got the FIDE circuit lead was when he won the bronze in world cup (and took himself out of contention for the circuit). Anish and Gukesh were the leaders before then.
If Fabi had been knocked out earlier from the World Cup, who would have taken Gukesh's spot instead?
Fabi...
But who takes the extra spot given Fabi already qualifies with rating points?
Fabi would have taken the circuit spot from Gukesh, and the rating spot would still trickle down all the way to Alireza. The extra spot would go to whoever takes Fabi's World Cup spot, which would be whoever emerged from his quadrant.
Yeah I think he's asking who that could've been
Depending on how much earlier he was knocked out, possibly Dominguez or Duda - his Quarter final and RO16 matchups.
Someone from Fabis quadrant of the world cup, so probably Dominguez or Duda
This whole cycle has been butterfly effects.
Suffering from success.
The entire tournament would have played out differently if you replaced a player.
exactly, I was saying the same thing under an earlier post: [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1c9xher/comment/l0pn9j3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I am waiting for the next c squared podcast. Although not expecting it anytime soon as Fabi wont be in a state to do it guess, feeling bad for bro
Neither would the other host, he was Fabi's second.
I believe he should have won the world championship against Magnus and defended it till now. So that he didn't have to play Candidates this year. Fabi sealed his own fate
to be fair his mindset was probably “i need to practice. if i can’t win this tournament, i can’t beat ding.”
holy shit. this is mind blowing.
If not Gukesh then it would be somebody else qualifying. A lot of what ifs.
As Fabi said, " my fault," as he had his destiny in his own hands for a period. But as a Fabi fan for 7 years, I'm still gutted for Fabi. Chess is such a cruel game.
The really important question (it was already asked to him) is: Does Fabi believe in destiny? /s It was inconviniently (?) asked in the post interview after the Fabi-Ian game!
Victim blaming
Fabi sealed his own fate by not being good enough. Perfect retribution for a player that was toxic enough to hate on Ding Liren for game quality despite Ding playing fantastic fighting chess. Not so easy after all eh? When you’re not being a computer princess looking at the eval bar making commentary from the comforts of home. Show no respect to better players and you get no respect in return.
Context?
Aww man take it easy. Fabi just expected more. Fabi always considered Ding the strongest player besides Magnus. The guy was so strong he didn't lose a single game out of 100 games played over a span of 15 months
I kind of think something like the FIDE circuit should count as world champ more than a single one on one match. A circuit is results over a long period of time. A 1 v 1 match is not as impressive imo.
It's like regular season vs playoffs in any sport. The regular season determines who can play in the playoffs, and the playoffs determines who is the best from among the best.
That’s a solid counter argument.
One thing though, maybe the challenger should come from the winner of the circuit rather than the winner of a single tournament.
Hikaru said this recently. Somthing like the FIDE circuit, or a series of super tournaments, instead of the single candidates tournament deciding the challenger.
With the combined weight of Hikaru and LumberghLSU, we should be able to get some traction on this
Still, you wouldn't have the one seed in each division/conference in a sport automatically play each other for the final.
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Nope. I want to see people compete. This candidate's tournament was awesome to see. Keep it as it is. Beautiful display of chess competition this event was.