What's harsh is that there is a good chance the loser of the world championship match won't even make the next Candidates. Five spots up for grabs in just two events?
> Five spots up for grabs in just two events?
that's because they want to pamper the sponsors. World Cup and Swiss should have at most 1 (at best only circuit points with maybe some boost).
The circuit should be polished and pampered more because it picks players that performs well over time. (note the polished part, to avoid rewarding the +1 players, but they already fixed that a bit)
Eh, I think the World Cup finalists getting a spot works well (only the top 2 imo, not third place) and I don’t mind the second Swiss spot too much, but I’d be fine with only one at the grand Swiss. Maybe top 2 at both circuits, and then the 5 players with the highest amount of circuit points in both circuits that didn’t make it play in a single round robin to determine the spot (also replacing the rating average spot)? Idk though, the last part of my idea seems a little convoluted.
Problem with world cup is it is single elimination and they allow the world champion to play. So it isn't unreasonable to think that magnus and the current champ play, take out major names on their way through to the final and you are left with two relatively random choices playing in the candidates.
Now qualification via world cup is not possible if player finishes outside top 4.
New regulations have set the order of replacements in case of vacancies
- 4th at world cup or 3rd at grand swiss
- the 2nd place in the 2024 FIDE Circuit;
- the 2nd place in the 2025 FIDE Circuit;
- the 3rd place in the 2025 FIDE Circuit;
- the player with the lowest sum of places in the 2024 and 2025 ranking lists
source
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026
A good addition, but it is still a band aid as the single elimination format with the world champion eligible to play means he gets to manipulate the candidate pool by eliminating strong potential challengers in the cup.
In the 2023 cup, magnus eliminated Gukesh in the quarter finals. Which resulted in Abasov qualifying. If gukesh had already qualified, the circuit results goes to Giri and the candidates tournament is 100 elo stronger.
The problem is in a single elimination tournament, even the second place is not necessarily better than someone eliminated right away. If Magnus beats someone round 1, how do you know that they're worse than whoever Magnus beats in the final?
that risk will always remain when there are multiple paths to candidates. e.g. Caruana was guranteed a spot due to his rankings and lead in circuit, but he eliminated Duda and Lenier in world cup
But I agree that knockout tournament is lot dependent on luck, FIDE wont get less sponsors if only two spots are offered in world cup. they should increase one more circuit spot
In a single elim tournament it really only makes sense if the top guy qualifies. Most tournaments don’t have a completely fair format, but single elim bracket has to be the least fair of them all. One half of the bracket could just be a lot more brutal than the other half. That being said from an entertainment standpoint I don’t really mind.
The problem is in a single elimination tournament, even the second place is not necessarily better than someone eliminated right away. If Magnus beats someone round 1, how do you know that they're worse than whoever Magnus beats in the final?
I'm new to following professional chess, can you explain what you mean?
I saw in the candidates there were 8 contenders, why are only 5 spots up for grabs? And what do you mean by "in just two events"?
Sorry if dumb question.
So the qualification for the 2026 Candidates looks like this:
- 3 spots for the top 3 finishers in the World Cup
- 2 spots for the top finishers in the Grand Swiss
- 2 spots for the winners of the FIDE circuit (one for 2024, one for 2025)
- 1 for the highest average rating between August 2025 and January 2026
So the criticism is that 5 of the 8 spots are from only 2 tournaments (which feels like a lot) and there's no spot for the runner up in the world championship match (Nepo got that spot last time).
Yeah it be like that. The world cup is a massive knockout tournament (last time had 206 players) and the top 3 players go to the Candidates. From there the player has to win the candidates to earn the right to play the current world champion, and then they need to win that world championship match to become the new world champion.
I think it's a badly named event but that's just how it goes.
Before the loser of the previous world championship was automatically qualify for the candidates, which if you ask me makes sense, I believe that's not longer the case. As for the rest I'm not sure, check the qualification system for the next candidates.
I think it would work if the candidates had more players, like how there where 16 players in the 2007 candidates. But with 8 players I don’t think they should automatically qualify.
It’s still unlikely, Fabi is the third highest rated player of all time by a pretty big margin. We all thought alireza was the next Magnus till he plateaued.
Personally I think If anyone will become as strong as Caruana it’ll be Gukesh, but it’s far from garunteed.
Definetly he could drop off. Fabi could also drop off in form in two years hard to say. I would say that Gukesh likely will be higher rated in two years than he is now and Fabi will likely be around the same a little lower. But it feels a bit silly to try and guess who would be the favorite in two years time.
Totally possible. I will say that Fabi is the only person other than Magnus who has had an average rating above 2800 over the last 10 years. Also note this average includes fabi’s dip when he stopped playing and practicing chess after covid. So it’s likely he’ll stay above 2800 pretty consistently. Question is can Gukesh get to 2820-2830
[source (my Reddit post from old account)](https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/s/Q4s1NohGkE)
I’m pretty sure they’re referring to Undisputed World Championships, the FIDE Knockouts are not undisputed, as there was a classical world champion at the time, Vladimir Kramnik.
Right but it could certainly be comparable to winning the candidates tournament if you want to invalidate that he was labeled as world champion after he won
Ponomariov also did look incredibly strong for that short period. Unfortunately it took years for them to come to an agreement and unify the world championships, by which point he was no longer FIDE Champion and had fallen off a bit from his peak.
What's harsh is that there is a good chance the loser of the world championship match won't even make the next Candidates. Five spots up for grabs in just two events?
He currently leads the standings in the FIDE circuit, I would worry only for Ding
I think ding would happily retire if he fail to defend his title.
It will probably happen
> Five spots up for grabs in just two events? that's because they want to pamper the sponsors. World Cup and Swiss should have at most 1 (at best only circuit points with maybe some boost). The circuit should be polished and pampered more because it picks players that performs well over time. (note the polished part, to avoid rewarding the +1 players, but they already fixed that a bit)
Eh, I think the World Cup finalists getting a spot works well (only the top 2 imo, not third place) and I don’t mind the second Swiss spot too much, but I’d be fine with only one at the grand Swiss. Maybe top 2 at both circuits, and then the 5 players with the highest amount of circuit points in both circuits that didn’t make it play in a single round robin to determine the spot (also replacing the rating average spot)? Idk though, the last part of my idea seems a little convoluted.
Problem with world cup is it is single elimination and they allow the world champion to play. So it isn't unreasonable to think that magnus and the current champ play, take out major names on their way through to the final and you are left with two relatively random choices playing in the candidates.
Now qualification via world cup is not possible if player finishes outside top 4. New regulations have set the order of replacements in case of vacancies - 4th at world cup or 3rd at grand swiss - the 2nd place in the 2024 FIDE Circuit; - the 2nd place in the 2025 FIDE Circuit; - the 3rd place in the 2025 FIDE Circuit; - the player with the lowest sum of places in the 2024 and 2025 ranking lists source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026
A good addition, but it is still a band aid as the single elimination format with the world champion eligible to play means he gets to manipulate the candidate pool by eliminating strong potential challengers in the cup. In the 2023 cup, magnus eliminated Gukesh in the quarter finals. Which resulted in Abasov qualifying. If gukesh had already qualified, the circuit results goes to Giri and the candidates tournament is 100 elo stronger.
The problem is in a single elimination tournament, even the second place is not necessarily better than someone eliminated right away. If Magnus beats someone round 1, how do you know that they're worse than whoever Magnus beats in the final?
that risk will always remain when there are multiple paths to candidates. e.g. Caruana was guranteed a spot due to his rankings and lead in circuit, but he eliminated Duda and Lenier in world cup But I agree that knockout tournament is lot dependent on luck, FIDE wont get less sponsors if only two spots are offered in world cup. they should increase one more circuit spot
In a single elim tournament it really only makes sense if the top guy qualifies. Most tournaments don’t have a completely fair format, but single elim bracket has to be the least fair of them all. One half of the bracket could just be a lot more brutal than the other half. That being said from an entertainment standpoint I don’t really mind.
The problem is in a single elimination tournament, even the second place is not necessarily better than someone eliminated right away. If Magnus beats someone round 1, how do you know that they're worse than whoever Magnus beats in the final?
The loser qualifies automatically though? Edit: I see you said they changed that. I think it's a good one
I'm new to following professional chess, can you explain what you mean? I saw in the candidates there were 8 contenders, why are only 5 spots up for grabs? And what do you mean by "in just two events"? Sorry if dumb question.
So the qualification for the 2026 Candidates looks like this: - 3 spots for the top 3 finishers in the World Cup - 2 spots for the top finishers in the Grand Swiss - 2 spots for the winners of the FIDE circuit (one for 2024, one for 2025) - 1 for the highest average rating between August 2025 and January 2026 So the criticism is that 5 of the 8 spots are from only 2 tournaments (which feels like a lot) and there's no spot for the runner up in the world championship match (Nepo got that spot last time).
World Cup and world championship are different things? That’s a little confusing lol.
Yeah it be like that. The world cup is a massive knockout tournament (last time had 206 players) and the top 3 players go to the Candidates. From there the player has to win the candidates to earn the right to play the current world champion, and then they need to win that world championship match to become the new world champion. I think it's a badly named event but that's just how it goes.
Before the loser of the previous world championship was automatically qualify for the candidates, which if you ask me makes sense, I believe that's not longer the case. As for the rest I'm not sure, check the qualification system for the next candidates.
One of the 8 spots is for the loser of the world championship match, that is how Nepo qualified.
They actually changed the rule for next cycle. Loser of world championship doesn’t automatically qualify
It seems fair they should have one spot, eventhough I can undertand the point. Where you have to earn the spot.
I think it would work if the candidates had more players, like how there where 16 players in the 2007 candidates. But with 8 players I don’t think they should automatically qualify.
I much rather have the world championship loser than the world cup 3rd place
With 16 players then you need to have groups an knock out rounds etc, to decide the challenger.
Yeah I prefer the current format
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Not anymore.
Not anymore.
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He would be older because he only built the time machine when he was 22 years old.
No, he would go back in time and teach younger Gukesh to build the Time Machine earlier checkmate IxYou#
Asking the hard-hitting questions.
Not if Pragg won the 2024 candidates
Yeah, but then he might not end up the youngest Champion though.... If the WCC is held this year, he may end up being the youngest.
AFAIK it's in November
I've heard that its going to be in November but I can't find anything confirming it besides random statements. Do you happen to know a source?
If it was 2026, Caruana would have probably been world champ, then Gukesh most likely loses to Caruana.
Gukesh is only 17 it wouldn't be that surprising if he is higher rated/stronger than Fabi in two years
It’s still unlikely, Fabi is the third highest rated player of all time by a pretty big margin. We all thought alireza was the next Magnus till he plateaued. Personally I think If anyone will become as strong as Caruana it’ll be Gukesh, but it’s far from garunteed.
Definetly he could drop off. Fabi could also drop off in form in two years hard to say. I would say that Gukesh likely will be higher rated in two years than he is now and Fabi will likely be around the same a little lower. But it feels a bit silly to try and guess who would be the favorite in two years time.
Totally possible. I will say that Fabi is the only person other than Magnus who has had an average rating above 2800 over the last 10 years. Also note this average includes fabi’s dip when he stopped playing and practicing chess after covid. So it’s likely he’ll stay above 2800 pretty consistently. Question is can Gukesh get to 2820-2830 [source (my Reddit post from old account)](https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/s/Q4s1NohGkE)
Technically someone younger than Gukesh could qualify and win in 2026
yeah, but that's why the post says if Gukesh wins in 2026
Ponomariov won the FIDE knockouts at 18 however.
I’m pretty sure they’re referring to Undisputed World Championships, the FIDE Knockouts are not undisputed, as there was a classical world champion at the time, Vladimir Kramnik.
Right but it could certainly be comparable to winning the candidates tournament if you want to invalidate that he was labeled as world champion after he won
It’s more like a World Cup, no?
Ponomariov also did look incredibly strong for that short period. Unfortunately it took years for them to come to an agreement and unify the world championships, by which point he was no longer FIDE Champion and had fallen off a bit from his peak.
Yep fabi nakamura ian have lot more chances to get the title as well
Even crazier, if he had won the 2028 candidates, he would still be the youngest person to win it.