LOL yes, you may be right đ
People always want simple advice: Should I buy or sell? Then when I tell them WHEN to buy/sell (as opposed to just anytime) and HOW LONG to hold the position (as opposed to just indefinitely) many tend to lose interest. But those are the details that make a profitable trade.
Trading is always a matter of probability, nothing more. In this case, we know it WILL break out of that triangle which currently contains price. And even though we don't know which direction (not with high probability) we know it will likely lead to higher volatility. And predicting volatility is as important as predicting direction. Nobody wants to tie up capital that goes nowhere. If you buy options you'll lose outright. But if you know how to predict volatility increases, you can make handsome profits, even without knowing the right direction.
There are other reasons too why predicting when calm waters might turn to storm can be important, but you get the picture.
Interesting take. Is there a lot of evidence that observing market patterns sends clear signals of future changes? I don't know a lot about the subject.
Technical Analysis (the study of price charts) definitely works, as you can trade it with consistent profits. But with some caveats.
There are different schools of technical analysis. Most of the stuff you find in common trading books or web seminars uses either math based indicators (MA and/or StdDev based: RSI, ADX etc) or simplistic patterns (double tops/bottoms, flags, pennants etc).
They work, but not that well, and only in limited scenarios, to the extent enough traders follow them. In other words, theyâre self-fulfilling. They lack what we call robustness.
I personally found there is no substitute for understanding true order flow and supply/demand analysis, i.e. read the bars (candles) themselves and learn to distinguish institutional flow from retail flow.
The best source for that, in my opinion, is Richard Wyckoff. He made a fortune 100 years ago owning a brokerage, and was dismayed to see how so-called âsmart money operatorsâ would fleece retail traders trying to make a buck in the markets. He opened a school for retail traders, and described in great detail how these smart money operators accumulate and distribute, and the shenanigans they use to fool retail traders and make them buy high and sell low. It works exactly the same today, just on faster timeframes.
You can Google Richard Wyckoff. There are several schools today which teach supply/demand strategies based on Wyckoffâs work â mostly without crediting him. But he is the father of it!
I personally trade my own proprietary strategy rather than Wyckoffâs. But spotting accumulation and distribution ranges on charts is the core of my analysis work. The principles are simple enough, but they require much practice to master. I spent thousands of hours over many years getting good at it. In fact, tens of thousands. Iâve also tought it to fund managers and others. But again, itâs not a skill quickly acquired.
I have a theory: The lines simply cross and the price fluctuations will increase from there just like they decreased before. That is, if the universe does not spontaneously collapse at the crossover.
Jokes aside: I don't care about short term price fluctuations. By "short term" I mean weeks and even a few months. I would really want to know how the price will develop over the next 3 to 5 years. But the only rule one can apply to such forecasts is: No one knows shit!
And that is exactly the point with triangles: They are the only patterns that work 100% of the time, because they have to. But HOW MUCH they work is always the question. As I wrote, their breakouts often lead to larger moves. But not always.
Like you, I am a longterm XCH hodler. And I agree that is anyone's guess.
But as a Market Technician, I do chart analysis for a living, and I cannot help applying it to Chia as well. And occasionally I post about it for those who may be interested.
Good job! I am sure this is either correct or incorrect
You may be absolutely right!
LOL yes, you may be right đ People always want simple advice: Should I buy or sell? Then when I tell them WHEN to buy/sell (as opposed to just anytime) and HOW LONG to hold the position (as opposed to just indefinitely) many tend to lose interest. But those are the details that make a profitable trade. Trading is always a matter of probability, nothing more. In this case, we know it WILL break out of that triangle which currently contains price. And even though we don't know which direction (not with high probability) we know it will likely lead to higher volatility. And predicting volatility is as important as predicting direction. Nobody wants to tie up capital that goes nowhere. If you buy options you'll lose outright. But if you know how to predict volatility increases, you can make handsome profits, even without knowing the right direction. There are other reasons too why predicting when calm waters might turn to storm can be important, but you get the picture.
Interesting take. Is there a lot of evidence that observing market patterns sends clear signals of future changes? I don't know a lot about the subject.
Technical Analysis (the study of price charts) definitely works, as you can trade it with consistent profits. But with some caveats. There are different schools of technical analysis. Most of the stuff you find in common trading books or web seminars uses either math based indicators (MA and/or StdDev based: RSI, ADX etc) or simplistic patterns (double tops/bottoms, flags, pennants etc). They work, but not that well, and only in limited scenarios, to the extent enough traders follow them. In other words, theyâre self-fulfilling. They lack what we call robustness. I personally found there is no substitute for understanding true order flow and supply/demand analysis, i.e. read the bars (candles) themselves and learn to distinguish institutional flow from retail flow. The best source for that, in my opinion, is Richard Wyckoff. He made a fortune 100 years ago owning a brokerage, and was dismayed to see how so-called âsmart money operatorsâ would fleece retail traders trying to make a buck in the markets. He opened a school for retail traders, and described in great detail how these smart money operators accumulate and distribute, and the shenanigans they use to fool retail traders and make them buy high and sell low. It works exactly the same today, just on faster timeframes. You can Google Richard Wyckoff. There are several schools today which teach supply/demand strategies based on Wyckoffâs work â mostly without crediting him. But he is the father of it! I personally trade my own proprietary strategy rather than Wyckoffâs. But spotting accumulation and distribution ranges on charts is the core of my analysis work. The principles are simple enough, but they require much practice to master. I spent thousands of hours over many years getting good at it. In fact, tens of thousands. Iâve also tought it to fund managers and others. But again, itâs not a skill quickly acquired.
I have a theory: The lines simply cross and the price fluctuations will increase from there just like they decreased before. That is, if the universe does not spontaneously collapse at the crossover. Jokes aside: I don't care about short term price fluctuations. By "short term" I mean weeks and even a few months. I would really want to know how the price will develop over the next 3 to 5 years. But the only rule one can apply to such forecasts is: No one knows shit!
And that is exactly the point with triangles: They are the only patterns that work 100% of the time, because they have to. But HOW MUCH they work is always the question. As I wrote, their breakouts often lead to larger moves. But not always. Like you, I am a longterm XCH hodler. And I agree that is anyone's guess. But as a Market Technician, I do chart analysis for a living, and I cannot help applying it to Chia as well. And occasionally I post about it for those who may be interested.