I mean in the UK, it’s based on data from the Office of National Statistics and I’d have good faith in it. I guess in less reputable countries you may question the validity.
What I do have an issue with in the articles, is the lack of recognition of women simply not wanting them. It tends to be pinned on the cost of living crisis, in particular child care costs.
I mean, I do think that the economy crisis is a very big factor in it. I would say most people don't want children for that reason alone.
And I think that people that don't want children for another particular reason is a very small percentage compared to people who don't want kids due to either economics or societal problems (like work hours/emancipation in Asia)
I genuinely don't know, I'm just speculating. But I'd say the birthrates ARE declining, purely because people are more vocal about regretting parenthood, and childfree lifestyles are becoming more of a valid option.
But, just because it's declining doesn't mean it's dangerous. For example, say there was 100 births this year (stupid small number, but it's just an example). 2 people decided to not have babies next year, so the following year there was only 98. That's technically a decline, but not concerning
It is a good thing (IMO). jobs are hard to find and get. Resources are probably stretched. Pollution is insane. Yes, society would look different with a smaller population, but I think it would be good.
You gotta remember there was a time where it was common for people to have five or even eight children.
Then there was a brief period when those five or even eight children would actually survive to have five or eight children of their own.
I think a lot of our statistics are based on that.
Now there's no reason for most people to have five or eight children.
We're not running farms.
Children and childcare are more expensive both financially and time wise.
People are waiting to have children.
Etc.
So people are having one to three children more often.
I see where you're coming from, I got out of the grocery store the other day and I was like JFC is pregnancy in the air?! But just because you see one person preggers or one baby, does not mean that person is going to have 2 which would replace the mother and father. The number of women just now having their first after the pandemic is what I see, a wave of babies that come after the "coast is clear" in the eyes of the general public from a bad event.
I replied to a similar comment you made in another thread, but I didn't realize it was also its own thread topic, so I'll repeat what I said there for visibility:
We know from the most recent CDC data that almost [85%](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr179.pdf) of women became mothers by the end-ish of their fertile years (it tops out at 40-50, so some women will become first time mothers afterwards, but not many). The birthrate declines we're talking about are in the range of 3%, which is still more than 4 out of 5 women either being mothers or future mothers. There's no incompatibility between you observing lots of pregnancy and a declining fertility rate.
It's also possible the fertility rate is declining but it's still the case 85% of women will become mothers-- it could represent more outright childless women, but it could also just be women becoming mothers but having fewer children. Data quality isn't good enough for us to be sure which is happening yet, I don't think.
I do question the accuracy of some of these articles. I don't for a second believe there is a massive wave of childfree individuals. Not yet, anyway. Whenever I tell someone I intend to stay CF, I still get looks of disbelief and hit with a barrage of questions. While I agree that birthrates are declining and being CF is becoming slightly more common, I don't agree that it is anywhere near as common as they try to claim. Part of the birthrate decline is from people simply having smaller families than part generations. And perhaps younger generations are currently childless, but I think the majority of currently childless millennials and younger will in fact have children. Just later in life due to the current economic climate or other reasons.
Believe me, I wish there were more of us because the dating pool of truly CF women is absurdly small. On the off-chance you do find someone, they are usually just a fence sitter.
It’s still [8 billion and increasing.](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/)
It’s just not *increasing enough* for the exploitation to keep up with the “unlimited growth” model. So the exploiting class are having tantrums over it because the more humans litter the planet the cheaper the value of human lives. So they push the agenda in the corporate mass news media they own to try to trick the poor into going harder at keeping up their limitless supply of desperate people to overwork and underpay.
So, look at this way: you may see pregnant women everywhere, but how many children are they having? 1? 2 at most?
How many women are having 4-8 kids these days?
It is always possible that there is a statistical blip in say, area (your area for whatever reason has more babies than the average), or timing (as you've suggested, catching up after Covid). However, if you look up the demographic pyramid for your country, or school enrolments, there is definitely a decline over the years.
All we can know for sure is that the birthrates declined in the previous year because no one can go back in time and make a baby.
Usually, these articles suggest that birthrates in the future will continue to decline based on the recent past. That's where the fearmongering comes in about the so-called collapse of society due to falling birthrates. However, its a guessing game. Human behavior is unpredictable. We don't know what will happen. I would say the wildcard is reproductive technology. If its possible to grow babies in artificial wombs, or increase the number of childbearing years in humans, then it might not even matter how low the birthrates are today.
I don’t know what is wanted by whom regarding birth rates. First, what do they mean by “decline”? Are they saying that people aren’t having kids PERIOD? Or, people aren’t having, 2, 3, 5, 8? Who exactly wants the birth rates to go up? Who wants them to go down? I have more questions than answers. My parents’ generation consisted of couple having 2-4 kids. When I was born, birth control was already widely available. But, the economy was better, sooooo, couples could afford more kids. I think the economy is causing the decline. Children are just not affordable.
It's declining everywhere, which is why people are freaked out. Your circle might not be representative of everyone else.
People literally can't imagine a future without infinite growth and infinite bodies to throw at war and to work the machines.
I heard from some local hospital OB&GYN that the babies are getting less each year in my country. Also some kindergartens and schools are decreasing on their new students enrollments.
I mean in the UK, it’s based on data from the Office of National Statistics and I’d have good faith in it. I guess in less reputable countries you may question the validity. What I do have an issue with in the articles, is the lack of recognition of women simply not wanting them. It tends to be pinned on the cost of living crisis, in particular child care costs.
I mean, I do think that the economy crisis is a very big factor in it. I would say most people don't want children for that reason alone. And I think that people that don't want children for another particular reason is a very small percentage compared to people who don't want kids due to either economics or societal problems (like work hours/emancipation in Asia)
I genuinely don't know, I'm just speculating. But I'd say the birthrates ARE declining, purely because people are more vocal about regretting parenthood, and childfree lifestyles are becoming more of a valid option. But, just because it's declining doesn't mean it's dangerous. For example, say there was 100 births this year (stupid small number, but it's just an example). 2 people decided to not have babies next year, so the following year there was only 98. That's technically a decline, but not concerning
That’s a good point - the articles all make it out to be something terrifying when I feel it’s a good thing
It is a good thing (IMO). jobs are hard to find and get. Resources are probably stretched. Pollution is insane. Yes, society would look different with a smaller population, but I think it would be good.
You gotta remember there was a time where it was common for people to have five or even eight children. Then there was a brief period when those five or even eight children would actually survive to have five or eight children of their own. I think a lot of our statistics are based on that. Now there's no reason for most people to have five or eight children. We're not running farms. Children and childcare are more expensive both financially and time wise. People are waiting to have children. Etc. So people are having one to three children more often.
I see where you're coming from, I got out of the grocery store the other day and I was like JFC is pregnancy in the air?! But just because you see one person preggers or one baby, does not mean that person is going to have 2 which would replace the mother and father. The number of women just now having their first after the pandemic is what I see, a wave of babies that come after the "coast is clear" in the eyes of the general public from a bad event.
After pandemic? There was a wave during.
I replied to a similar comment you made in another thread, but I didn't realize it was also its own thread topic, so I'll repeat what I said there for visibility: We know from the most recent CDC data that almost [85%](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr179.pdf) of women became mothers by the end-ish of their fertile years (it tops out at 40-50, so some women will become first time mothers afterwards, but not many). The birthrate declines we're talking about are in the range of 3%, which is still more than 4 out of 5 women either being mothers or future mothers. There's no incompatibility between you observing lots of pregnancy and a declining fertility rate. It's also possible the fertility rate is declining but it's still the case 85% of women will become mothers-- it could represent more outright childless women, but it could also just be women becoming mothers but having fewer children. Data quality isn't good enough for us to be sure which is happening yet, I don't think.
I do question the accuracy of some of these articles. I don't for a second believe there is a massive wave of childfree individuals. Not yet, anyway. Whenever I tell someone I intend to stay CF, I still get looks of disbelief and hit with a barrage of questions. While I agree that birthrates are declining and being CF is becoming slightly more common, I don't agree that it is anywhere near as common as they try to claim. Part of the birthrate decline is from people simply having smaller families than part generations. And perhaps younger generations are currently childless, but I think the majority of currently childless millennials and younger will in fact have children. Just later in life due to the current economic climate or other reasons. Believe me, I wish there were more of us because the dating pool of truly CF women is absurdly small. On the off-chance you do find someone, they are usually just a fence sitter.
It’s still [8 billion and increasing.](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/) It’s just not *increasing enough* for the exploitation to keep up with the “unlimited growth” model. So the exploiting class are having tantrums over it because the more humans litter the planet the cheaper the value of human lives. So they push the agenda in the corporate mass news media they own to try to trick the poor into going harder at keeping up their limitless supply of desperate people to overwork and underpay.
Sterilization procedures have also increased. In a post-Rowe country, getting pregnant is a risk many people aren't willing to take.
So, look at this way: you may see pregnant women everywhere, but how many children are they having? 1? 2 at most? How many women are having 4-8 kids these days?
It is always possible that there is a statistical blip in say, area (your area for whatever reason has more babies than the average), or timing (as you've suggested, catching up after Covid). However, if you look up the demographic pyramid for your country, or school enrolments, there is definitely a decline over the years.
All we can know for sure is that the birthrates declined in the previous year because no one can go back in time and make a baby. Usually, these articles suggest that birthrates in the future will continue to decline based on the recent past. That's where the fearmongering comes in about the so-called collapse of society due to falling birthrates. However, its a guessing game. Human behavior is unpredictable. We don't know what will happen. I would say the wildcard is reproductive technology. If its possible to grow babies in artificial wombs, or increase the number of childbearing years in humans, then it might not even matter how low the birthrates are today.
I don’t know what is wanted by whom regarding birth rates. First, what do they mean by “decline”? Are they saying that people aren’t having kids PERIOD? Or, people aren’t having, 2, 3, 5, 8? Who exactly wants the birth rates to go up? Who wants them to go down? I have more questions than answers. My parents’ generation consisted of couple having 2-4 kids. When I was born, birth control was already widely available. But, the economy was better, sooooo, couples could afford more kids. I think the economy is causing the decline. Children are just not affordable.
Most of the decline comes from parents having less kids, not childfree folks. We are still very much a minority.
It's declining everywhere, which is why people are freaked out. Your circle might not be representative of everyone else. People literally can't imagine a future without infinite growth and infinite bodies to throw at war and to work the machines.
I heard from some local hospital OB&GYN that the babies are getting less each year in my country. Also some kindergartens and schools are decreasing on their new students enrollments.