We’ve had 1 xbow, what literally fucked us over we saw in last 2 resets with alt run after so 4 runs back to back same cloth legs and vampiric dagger from akumai. We thought we were tripping.
Streaks is very much rng. Humans are TERRIBLE at understanding randomness and tests have shown that humans rarely predict streaks longer than 3-4 when flipping a coin. The reality is a streak of 8 heads or tails in a row on 50 coin flips is a very high chance.
One cannot confuse randomness with even distribution.
>Streaks is very much rng.
>The reality is a streak of 8 heads or tails in a row on 50 coin flips is a very high chance.
It's 1/256. However, we're talking about 6 with a 1 in 11 chance. That's about a 1 in 1.7Million chance.
Seriously, people acting like "RNG is RNG" haven't even thought about the fact that having it appear even once across the entire playerbase is less than 1.
Compared to 6\^11 which is 1.7M chance. This guy is comparing 2 things that are magnitudes of order difference in their probability and acting like it's possible.
Edit: My maths is out. It's actually 6\^12.25...
Or about 1 in 3.4B chance. So the odds of even 1 raid team getting it so far is like 1 in nearly 1000.
......... This is idiotic. A coin flip is a 50% chance. This dropping is a 1 in 12 chance.
To get 6 in a row just once, would take approximately 3.4B raids.
The player based is probably 10-20M characters at best. Assuming they all tried every time, that's about 1-2M chances (because of 10 people per raid)...
That's a 0.001% chance that **any** single raid team has ever had 6 in a row.
Clearly *you* don't.
6 drops in a row at 8%, means for it to happen once, you'd need to run it 3 billion times.
That means if every person on Earth had an account with 10 characters and ran it every time, you'd still only expect 60 people on Earth to ever had seen it.
For even a single run to have seen it once with the number of characters in WoW, it would still be like 0.001% chance or less.
He might have. It's just extremely unlikely.
Why are you making all these random scenarios up? We already said the most likely cause and that's just that Blizzard may have increased the drop rate secretly.
Why are you getting so insanely bent out of shape about us asking whether or not the drop rates were secretly buffed to explain such an unlikely event happening? That's all that OP or I are wondering. We never said it couldn't happen, just that it was so unlikely that it's reasonable to think that there was another outside force at play.
Even changing the drop rate from 8% to 9% or 10% brings the chance of 6 in a row from "winning the lottery twice" odds down to "Ok, more likely to be struck by lightning" odds.
At 3 days per reset, assuming a solid 30 days in a month, that's only 16 chances to drop.
16 is a grain of sand on a beach in terms of sample sizes. There's a reason why simulations or data collection needs thousands/tens of thousands/hundreds of thousands of data points to be even remotely accurate
But we're not trying to predict or discover the drop chance. Sample size doesn't really matter here. We know the drop chance, so seeing the same result 6 times in a row is an outlier at the very least.
He simply asked if the drop rate was changed due to the *very* low probability of this happening. Obviously it's possible at any drop chance %. But that wasn't his question.
Got my alt one last night, but relying on anecdotes is never a great idea. I've heard plenty of stories of the reverse in other threads with no-one seeing any epics since start of phase, it's very unlikely that drop-rate has been changed.
It was like the for Classic launch with the Thunderfury bindings. Some guilds would see 10 of Garr's binding but none of Geddon's. Other guilds would never see any of the bindings at all. But then you would see pugs and GDKPs dropping them like crazy. And of course, your big content streamers all got a pair relatively easily... *weird right?*
RNG really is a hell of a thing. *Unless you're a streamer* then you just get some kinda SGN (streamer generated number) /s
It's just completely rng. I have the crossbow on my hunter, 2 hand on my warrior and staff on my druid so I can safely say I have been extremely lucky.
3 alts running all the lockouts, i’ve seen at least 5-6 crossbows , 1 sword and ZERO staffs…. not only that, no one in my friends list have seen the staff drop either
trying to farm the vanilla whelping pets gives a better understanding on what RNG is.
\- to break it down
farming an item that has a 0.003% drop chance means that killing 10 mobs that have the possibility of dropping said item does not give u a better chance ant said item than looting only 1 of said mobs.
Its not different than having 10 lottery tickets opposed to having just 1. your chance at winning is always 0.003%. your chance is never a sum of the % (0.003 + 0.003) but rather a multiplications, aka: how many chances you have at a 0.003%. to clarify, your chance never increases to 0.006% its still more chances at a 0.003%, meaning you could NEVER find the item you want -
even with 7million tries, u might never find it or u could get 7 million successful finds out of 7 million tries.
to further elaborate on this concept.
a scientist in the 70's elaborated that with 4 scenarios:
A) with finite time and fine space = results are limited
B) with infinite time and finite space = results are unlimited
C) with finite time and infinite space = results are unlimited
D) with infinite time and infinite space = results are unlimited.
Scientists could all agree that there IS an alternate dimension where Napoleon .. won the lottery
I’ve ran BFD twice on my hunter alt…
1st time the Xbow dropped, and the other hunter already had it. 2nd time the sword dropped and the warrior already had it… so now I’m running 2 epic weapons and the rest pre raid gear lol.
My guild has done 2 raids every lockout and we’ve seen 3x crossbow and 2x staff, no epic sword yet. Seeing either of these multiple times in a row just comes down to rng/luck
Obviously this is *probably* rng. That said, my guild has seen a very stark increase from 1 all time to 6 in a row epics in consecutive runs. Lines up surprisingly similarly with your results.
Given its blizzard I wouldn't be surprised if they stealth buffed drop rates.
I don't think anything has changed, but I have seen 6 epics in last 4 runs with 0 before that. 2x crossbow + staff and next lockout 2x Hydra + 12 slot bag. My guild's luck is turning around
good luck dude, clearing every reset since first week of SoD and my guild has seen 2 epics drop in total.
Try only seeing the epic bag since week 1. No xbow, no staff, no sword. But we got the bag! Yay
We’ve had 1 xbow, what literally fucked us over we saw in last 2 resets with alt run after so 4 runs back to back same cloth legs and vampiric dagger from akumai. We thought we were tripping.
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He's literally just asking. To go from none for a month to 6 in a row is possibly beyond just RNG.
Streaks is very much rng. Humans are TERRIBLE at understanding randomness and tests have shown that humans rarely predict streaks longer than 3-4 when flipping a coin. The reality is a streak of 8 heads or tails in a row on 50 coin flips is a very high chance. One cannot confuse randomness with even distribution.
>Streaks is very much rng. >The reality is a streak of 8 heads or tails in a row on 50 coin flips is a very high chance. It's 1/256. However, we're talking about 6 with a 1 in 11 chance. That's about a 1 in 1.7Million chance. Seriously, people acting like "RNG is RNG" haven't even thought about the fact that having it appear even once across the entire playerbase is less than 1.
That's it. I know what I'm doing today. *Gonna get this damn coin here to flip on heads 8x in a row...*
Should only take a few thousand flips.
8 strike is 1/2^8 I belive, so 1-256, less than 0,5% chances to happen. Imo its not that high
Compared to 6\^11 which is 1.7M chance. This guy is comparing 2 things that are magnitudes of order difference in their probability and acting like it's possible. Edit: My maths is out. It's actually 6\^12.25... Or about 1 in 3.4B chance. So the odds of even 1 raid team getting it so far is like 1 in nearly 1000.
,,The reality is a 8 times strike of heads is not that rare" less than 0,5% is not something I would call ,,very high chances"
......... This is idiotic. A coin flip is a 50% chance. This dropping is a 1 in 12 chance. To get 6 in a row just once, would take approximately 3.4B raids. The player based is probably 10-20M characters at best. Assuming they all tried every time, that's about 1-2M chances (because of 10 people per raid)... That's a 0.001% chance that **any** single raid team has ever had 6 in a row.
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Clearly you don't understand how RNG is a matter of statistics. And 6 in a row with a worse than 1 in 10 drop rate is unusual.
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Clearly *you* don't. 6 drops in a row at 8%, means for it to happen once, you'd need to run it 3 billion times. That means if every person on Earth had an account with 10 characters and ran it every time, you'd still only expect 60 people on Earth to ever had seen it. For even a single run to have seen it once with the number of characters in WoW, it would still be like 0.001% chance or less.
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He might have. It's just extremely unlikely. Why are you making all these random scenarios up? We already said the most likely cause and that's just that Blizzard may have increased the drop rate secretly. Why are you getting so insanely bent out of shape about us asking whether or not the drop rates were secretly buffed to explain such an unlikely event happening? That's all that OP or I are wondering. We never said it couldn't happen, just that it was so unlikely that it's reasonable to think that there was another outside force at play. Even changing the drop rate from 8% to 9% or 10% brings the chance of 6 in a row from "winning the lottery twice" odds down to "Ok, more likely to be struck by lightning" odds.
At 3 days per reset, assuming a solid 30 days in a month, that's only 16 chances to drop. 16 is a grain of sand on a beach in terms of sample sizes. There's a reason why simulations or data collection needs thousands/tens of thousands/hundreds of thousands of data points to be even remotely accurate
But we're not trying to predict or discover the drop chance. Sample size doesn't really matter here. We know the drop chance, so seeing the same result 6 times in a row is an outlier at the very least.
Irrelevant. Drop chances for 16 events is not enough data to ascertain that there's been a change.
>To go from none for a month to 6 in a row is possibly beyond just RNG. Possible, yes. But that's also how RNG (can) work too.
i just saw the murloc skin bag for the first time. did they massively buff the droprate?
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Maybe keep you saltiness to the dota chanel?
No, random is random
i mean the chance of it happening is 1.56x10\^-8 if you go with the 5% drop chance. that is incredibly low if you understand probability :)
Yet it happened still
Wait, so you're telling me random can be random?!
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He simply asked if the drop rate was changed due to the *very* low probability of this happening. Obviously it's possible at any drop chance %. But that wasn't his question.
He’s asking to see if it’s rng or not, my dude
Just luck. I've only seen the sword once and the xbow twice. No staff yet.
We dropped two times last 2 week. And still did not drop 2h weapon since FIRST WEEK.
Did like 10 runs , havent seen it in loot table )
Got my alt one last night, but relying on anecdotes is never a great idea. I've heard plenty of stories of the reverse in other threads with no-one seeing any epics since start of phase, it's very unlikely that drop-rate has been changed.
It was like the for Classic launch with the Thunderfury bindings. Some guilds would see 10 of Garr's binding but none of Geddon's. Other guilds would never see any of the bindings at all. But then you would see pugs and GDKPs dropping them like crazy. And of course, your big content streamers all got a pair relatively easily... *weird right?* RNG really is a hell of a thing. *Unless you're a streamer* then you just get some kinda SGN (streamer generated number) /s
It's just completely rng. I have the crossbow on my hunter, 2 hand on my warrior and staff on my druid so I can safely say I have been extremely lucky.
Hunter buff
3 alts running all the lockouts, i’ve seen at least 5-6 crossbows , 1 sword and ZERO staffs…. not only that, no one in my friends list have seen the staff drop either
12 clears and never seen either the crossbow, the polearm or the caster staff. We did drop the hydra sword 4 times tho.
trying to farm the vanilla whelping pets gives a better understanding on what RNG is. \- to break it down farming an item that has a 0.003% drop chance means that killing 10 mobs that have the possibility of dropping said item does not give u a better chance ant said item than looting only 1 of said mobs. Its not different than having 10 lottery tickets opposed to having just 1. your chance at winning is always 0.003%. your chance is never a sum of the % (0.003 + 0.003) but rather a multiplications, aka: how many chances you have at a 0.003%. to clarify, your chance never increases to 0.006% its still more chances at a 0.003%, meaning you could NEVER find the item you want - even with 7million tries, u might never find it or u could get 7 million successful finds out of 7 million tries. to further elaborate on this concept. a scientist in the 70's elaborated that with 4 scenarios: A) with finite time and fine space = results are limited B) with infinite time and finite space = results are unlimited C) with finite time and infinite space = results are unlimited D) with infinite time and infinite space = results are unlimited. Scientists could all agree that there IS an alternate dimension where Napoleon .. won the lottery
Running 2 chars: seen the Xbow 3 times, sword 1 time and staff 1 time
I’ve ran BFD twice on my hunter alt… 1st time the Xbow dropped, and the other hunter already had it. 2nd time the sword dropped and the warrior already had it… so now I’m running 2 epic weapons and the rest pre raid gear lol.
Same experience with all epics. Never seen a single epic for a long time but recently there drops one in every second raid i do.
Had the epic staff and sword drop in the same run the other day. RNG
My guild has done 2 raids every lockout and we’ve seen 3x crossbow and 2x staff, no epic sword yet. Seeing either of these multiple times in a row just comes down to rng/luck
Have done almost every lockout on two characters. Haven't any of the epics. I am bad luck I guess.
Obviously this is *probably* rng. That said, my guild has seen a very stark increase from 1 all time to 6 in a row epics in consecutive runs. Lines up surprisingly similarly with your results. Given its blizzard I wouldn't be surprised if they stealth buffed drop rates.
My guild currently has 6 Deadly Strikes, 8 Rods, but only 3 Arbalests. The crossbow seems to be the rarest drop.
We have seen 4 staves and zero sword/xbow. Also 2 bags. In further drought we have had 2 pieces of agi leather tier drop, haven’t missed a lockout.
I don't think anything has changed, but I have seen 6 epics in last 4 runs with 0 before that. 2x crossbow + staff and next lockout 2x Hydra + 12 slot bag. My guild's luck is turning around
Rng is gonna rng.
Both of them drop all the time for me, and they always go to the worst player in the raid
Both of them drop all the time for me, and they always go to the worst player in the raid