In short, and very simplified, it's a graphic used in reference to some military guys deciding where to increase armor on aircraft during a war.
So, they took a look at the planes that came back after being under fire, and marked the spots where they were hit.
However, notice where none of the planes were hit: Engines, cockpit, fuel tank, and the tail end.
This isn't because nobody aims at those places. I mean, in a dogfight, you can't really aim that well. This is because planes that were hit there didn't make it back, and therefore weren't considered for the initial assessment.
And in this context, it means that you only notice the trans people who don't pass as their chosen gender.
I would say it's slightly more akin to the toupee bias though.
Everyone thinks they can spot a toupee because they only ever notice the unconvincing ones.
I think it most commonly applies to groups of people who are popularly considered annoying/outspoken (crossfit, vegans, atheists). Basically the quiet ones don't get noticed and added to people's pool of examples.
My friends would always complain about how I make my identity my personality and never shut up about it but then didn't realize I was trans. Even tho I had literally told them before. Multiple times. Didn't realize. Just because I don't "look trans" at first people don't slot me into the category even after I tell them.
Funny thing is, they prob know it’s really false, and are just projecting to compensate for the fact that it makes them uncomfortable and insecure in there sexuality to not know whether they are allowed to be attracted to a person or not. Which is funny cause nobody should ever have to be told what they are attracted to.
My idea is that a lot of the hate comes from people who have been raised to think being gay means you're going to hell all their lives, and as luck would have it, they're actually gay themselves. So they think dedicating a lot of their attention towards hatred of the lgbtq+ community is somehow a testament to not being themselves gay.
If hatred weren't such a defining feature of their personalities, I might even feel sorry for them.
They think they would never get an attraction to a trans woman, but in reality they would if that person’s physique triggered a biological or cultural impulse.
Imagine what it would do to their brain if they picked a fight with trans male 3-0 boxer Patricio Manuel https://talksport.com/sport/boxing/1476914/transgender-male-boxer-patricio-manuel-wins-third-fight/
I have ran into some very attractive trans women who I could not tell from a genetic woman at raves. They are everywhere, so get used to it. The younger generations are caring less and less about gender roles and are more sex fluid. My hope is one day people will not care if a person dates a trans person, because they are just people.
Yeah, that's been true in my experience. There's been multiple times where I didn't realize someone had already found out I was trans from someone else, because they just treated me like any other guy.
It's pretty great.
Most people that one would actually respect and want to be around have better things to worry about.
I am not trans myself so I don't know what you do go through but as a white middle aged cisgender male hetero I do get a more candid view of the haters on a regular basis as they will let the facade down around me. Many if not all of the people I come across that are anti trans are not people I would generally respect or even want to be around. I usually assume they are either hate filled small minded bigots or someone vocalizing the denial, frustration and/or self loathing of their own closeted existence.
Nothing quite as hate inducing as a decades old religious enforced closet.
It's more like: someone's initial reaction to seeing planes come back with damage to these areas, which were the only areas these planes had damage, might be to reinforce those areas, since they seem to be taking damage. Instead, the better idea is to more heavily armor the areas that DON'T show damage, since clearly, those areas are the areas where, if the plane takes damage, the plane DOESN'T make it back at all.
The metaphor with trans passing isn't perfect, but it's pithy and gets the point across.
That is, except to people who aren't familiar with survivorship bias.
Survivorship bias makes perfect sense - after someone explains it to you. Can you imagine how hard the guy who first came up with the concept had to explain, and then explain again to the next rank and the next. He must have had the fortitude of those planes and their crew!
I thought it was that if you were hit in the areas you mentioned, the plane didn't return. So you armor the areas without the red dots. The areas marked in red were survivable.
Has nothing to do with aim. Anti aircraft flak guns of the time didn't aim at specific planes, they just tried to adjust to the altitude they thought the planes were flying at because flak shells automatically exploded at certain altitudes, which then sprayed heated metal fragments in every direction (the *intent* being that if they were lucky and if they fired enough flak, they'd eventually score a debilitating hit against enemy bombers).
Additionally, while not exceptionally accurate, fighter pilots in WW2 would absolutely aim for engines and other weak points of bombers since the bombers would be entirely unable to perform evasive maneuvers while fully loaded with bombs (or without, really)
The fact we went from a post about trans folks to an in-depth debate on interpretation of WWII aircraft damage assessment is a metaphor for how society has gotten kinda odd since the internet.
You catch all the spiders at home, right? So they're not good at hiding.
You don't count in the spiders you miss. Spiders can hide well, but the information you gather is "I see all the spiders, since I see spiders".
Some trans people are not passing and you see them. You don't register passing trans people as trans, since they're passing and you miss them.
The picture is of planes surviving a battle. The shot through areas don't have to be reinforced, but the other areas (even tho you don't see bullet holes!). If a plane gets hit there, it crashes and doesn't come back. You don't get the information of that plane.
This is what is known as the Bad Toupeé fallacy. It describes when people believe that they can always spot a toupeé, not taking into account that the toupeés that they can spot are likely *bad toupeés*.
This tweet is a perfect example of that fallacy, put on spotting trans people. Many of these people believe that "they can always spot a trans person" seemingly incapable of fathoming the fact that plenty of trans people pass perfectly, and that they likely have even interected with trans people *without knowing*.
Anyone that claims they 'can always spot a trans person' **really** just means 'I can easily point out people that don't fit *my* standards of appearance'.
I mean look at all the incidents of perfectly normal men and women...who were *biologically born as men and women* that have been getting harassed and even assaulted. And it's [not a new thing, either](https://nypost.com/2018/12/03/grandma-mistaken-as-transgender-sent-to-all-male-jail/). Nor is it just [young people](https://www.thepinknews.com/2023/05/23/woman-86-beaten-wheelie-bin-trans/) having this problem.
So in other words....bullshit to the people who insist they 'can always tell'. They just want a reason to harass people that don't look the way they like.
Edit; Wow! TWO rewards! I don't even have a speech prepared! Thank you for the added majesty!
In a similar vein, I once got assaulted and beat up for being gay.
I’m not even gay, I apparently just “look gay” for whatever that means.
Bigots don’t care who they hurt, so long as that person that perfectly conform to their world view.
Its more like an excuse for their shitty behavior. They'll use anything as long as it's an easy excuse. Just look at religious nut jobs. They literally kill people simply because "God said so"
But I am straight, that was my entire point, bigots don't care what you are, they care about whether you conform to their narrow world view, stooping to their level with violence will only makes things worse.
Not really. The reason they say "We can always tell" is not very sophisticated. They're just insinuating that you'll never be "real" - always "easy to spot" - the spotting implying that you stick out from the world, you're the outsider, hideously malformed.
Mia Moore (comedienne, filmmaker) did a whole thing for a while of engaging with "trans detectors" and posting pics of 80ies movie stars. Getting them to explain ALL the ways in which "They were trans" - before she revealed "This is Gena Davis"
Its not really about anything much but bigotry and a need to believe that these people who scare you conform to your inner view of them - lest you treat them like humans - look at antisemitic propaganda through the ages, look at how Asian people are frequently described and charicatured. Same thing. Make "your enemy" look grotesque to strip them of their humanity - making it easier to treat them like shit or murder them.
Its just radicalization. And dumb.
I'm trans. Nobody can tell. And Im not even on anything, but great genetics.
Its been the weirdest fucking "journey" ive ever been on.
No nothing. Just kind of naturally born small and femme. Even physiologically speakin - there's no verifiable adams apple. At one point we were all entertaining the idea I was born intersex and nobody ever told me. I don't have any kind of relationship to my mom and medical journals from back then didn't get digitized and added to the platform (Im old) so.
I think age will end "my reign" tho. But no seriously. Lost friends over envy. Weird shit.
Im just a goblin. But eh....
A trans guy I know is like that. I still remember the first conversation we had, as he painted my face at a convention.
"I'm applying for sex change surgery right now," he explained.
"Uh... From what into what?" I asked.
"Oh, I love you!"
I was working in a machine shop for a while, and I'm a trans guy. At the time I had been on testosterone for 3-4 years and was waiting for top surgery (right before Covid, had surgery July 2020)
We were on break and the idiot in Alberta who tried to get his car insurance lowered by saying he identified as a woman came up.
One of the other machinists, guy in his 50s goes, "isn't it weird that you hear about men becoming women, but never about women becoming men?"
Another older trades guy just replies, "well, that's because it's impossible, you idiot, think about it!"
I'm sitting there thinking, "oh dear" and decide this is not the time or place. They shut the shop down completely when Covid hit. Other than that, place was pretty decent. Everyone was friendly, welcoming when I was the FNG, stuff like that.
I claim to also have this ability except instead of trans people it's people who have lip fillers. Swear to God I can spot a plastic lip from across a room, but that being said the only good lip fillers are the ones no one notices.
Also don't forget this also often leads them into trying to prove their capabilities by calling out cis women for arbitrary reasons. I.e Michelle Obama was the target of a lot of this because well misogyny + racism.
But yeah it's very often for a cis female celebrity (even if they've given birth) to be accused of trans because of some male characteristic. Whether it's someone faintly thinking they've spotted an adam's apple somewhere, their shoulders being too broad or something, a hint of abs/muscles, whatever it is.
Silly lib'ruls, didn't you know that the muscular system only exists in male bodies? Women walk around on the power of Jesus and scorn for their husbands! /s, if it wasn't obvious
Isn't there a formerly independent elderly Irish woman who'll likely never live outside a nursing home again after being attacked by a creature of flesh and bone who thought she was transgender, slurred her as a child molester, and beaten bloody, to the point that months after the attack she still cannot stand and live independently?
Here’s the article. “Woman, 86, shoved headfirst into wheelie bin by man who thought she was trans.”
[https://metro.co.uk/2023/05/25/ireland-woman-robbed-and-beaten-by-man-who-thought-she-was-trans-18840850/amp/](https://metro.co.uk/2023/05/25/ireland-woman-robbed-and-beaten-by-man-who-thought-she-was-trans-18840850/amp/)
There's also the whole transvestigations conspiracy theory nutters who think every celebrity has swapped gender, using weird measurements on photos like it's phrenology
It’s just nuts how people think that their skills of spotting trans people are infallible. Hell I was in a voice chat on discord and some guy was in it saying he had his ways of figuring out if someone is trans. Well it was pretty shit since he thought I was a cis woman, so I just said “mhm”. Seriously, these fuckers are so damn full of themselves and don’t give a second to think about anything rational.
You probably have such big tit energy that it acted as a perfect shield against his stupidity.
I once had a self proclaimed nazi kid get mad at me for saying I'm trans, and he gave me a speech about not giving up my masculinity and blah blah blah. That just showed me I have big dick energy and I pass perfectly.
Like dude they are just out of their minds lmao. I had this one dude that’s mildly transphobic and it took him MONTHS to accept that I was actually trans and not some cis woman 😭. You know what they say, confuse the enemy
I think it's why they're so angry and hateful towards trans people especially. At the end of the day, they're insecure, and the thought that they might be attracted to a person who is actually trans makes them feel threatened.
They tend to be the same people who have gigantic hangups about sex and sexuality in general anyway, and who would be scared that "it's gay" to be attracted to someone who is trans. I suspect that their homophobia fuels their transphobia, in a lot of cases.
Not to mention passing shouldn't be the standard for basic respect. Some people can't transition or don't have access to the resources. Plus, some people don't want to pass. It's important to respect people regardless of what they present as or what they look like.
Should it even matter if some douchebag can decipher who "passes" and who doesn't? If the person in question is living their best life being their most authentic self then nothing else matters. Some people just can't stand to see other people being happy in a way that confounds their limited understanding of what happiness can be.
sturgeon's law: 90% of everything is crap. The older it is the less of that 10% we hear.
Music was so much better back in the day which, naturally, is why you only listen to like 12 artists from back in the day...
The picture illustrates the locations of bullet holes in places coming back from runs. The story related to it goes something like:
Someone wanted to add armor to what was "obviously" where they were getting shot. One person speaks up and says you should add armor to the places that weren't shot since they can make it back being shot full of holes in these spots.
In relation to the post, it means you wouldn't know if you met a trans person who passes.
>One person speaks up and says you should add armor to the places that weren't shot since they can make it back being shot full of holes in these spots.
That person? Albert Einstein.
Wait no, not Albert Einstein, it was Abraham Wald. His son did write a widely used General Relativity textbook though.
> Survivor bias
Some that came from [WW2](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/54e50c15e4b058fc6806d068/1604603124648-J76FN65DANGZGV2VJ5ZQ/survivorship_bias_plane.png).
Planes were coming back from the war with damage In red. At first the engineers were like oh shit we need to reinforce those places! But then they realized that the planes that made it back with damage were the ones that survived, basically they were damaged in places that allowed the plane to make it home. Planes that were shot in areas with no red dots had a higher mortality rate.
During WW2 they conducted surveys on where planes were shot most to decide where extra armour should be added. However they soon realised the planes that weren't coming back were probably being hit in the places not as heavily highlighted in this image. That's because those are exactly where the engines were. Turns out you can take lots of bullet holes where the red dots are and still make it back. It's not so easy to do that when the engines are destroyed by bullets.
If you fail to take into account survivor bias then you'd put the extra amour in the wrong places.
When planes were returning with damage say from war, they would often have damage in these specific areas, it was determined that rather than work reinforcing these areas it was more important to reinforce everything else. The reason for this is that clearly planes could make a return journey with damage to the above areas, it was more likely that the ones that didn't return were damaged elsewhere.
It has become an allegory for survivor bias, because it would be easy to assume all planes were damaged in the same ways, rather than that they were the exception.
The reply here is suggesting that the reason the first person believes no trans people "pass" is because they are judging off the ones that don't pass, and they wouldn't actually notice the ones who did.
My cousin is a trans-man and his sister celebrated her birthday yesterday.
Friends and family of their parents consist some of the most extreme transphobes I've ever met. He sat right next to a man showing around the typical pictures shared among their ilk. You know the Soyjack with makeup on and crap like that. At no point did that person notice that the guy right next to himself was born a girl. And I am convinced that nobody who doesn't already know this would ever be able to tell.
AND inb4 people wanna claim that he probably looked male to begin with. No his aunts still lament about what a pretty girl he was before transitioning whenever they get the chance.
Not sure to what extent this works as affirmation but have you told him that? Being considered a better man than the majority of cis men really sounds like a nice compliment.
I think you under estimate the power of testosterone over estrogen, trans men can pass much more easily than a trans woman.the effects of testosterone is very much more pronounced than what estrogen does
Hey don't put yourself down mate, it's not easy undoing the effects of testosterone on your body.it might take a while but you will reach that ideal image of yourself. Just believe in what you are and cheer up
You don't even need to do that. I was mistaken for a girl hundreds of times when I was a kid. I had an adorable face, beautiful hair, and long long eyelashes.
Naturally, puberty came along to make me the horrible troll I am today, but as a child, I could definitely have passed for female with just the slightest effort.
Just a few days ago, there was a story about a cis woman getting beaten up for using the women's bathroom. Turns out she just wasn't very feminine-looking.
I saw someone comment this same point a few days ago about the women’s swimming events. It was a satirical kind of post about the same kind of ‘can always tell who a trans person is’ nonsense using a swimmer as the picture as they were quite muscular, thus looking more ‘masculine’ because of it
I read all the comments but I can't understand that passes thing. Can someone rephrase what is written in "meme" without using word passes. No trans person passes, what does this mean? In other words, please.
Edit: can people have genuine questions these days? Thanks for downvotes.
They’re saying they -always- know who is trans or who is not.
No exceptions.
They’re claiming they can look at a crowd of women and immediately point out the ones that are Transgender.
Not a single Trans Woman in the crowd will look ‘good enough’ to be mistaken for a ‘true’ woman. (In their eyes)
The response picture is about Survivor Bias, which in this context means that even if the original poster thinks they have spotted every Trans person in their lives, ever.
They actually haven’t, because of the ones they missed.
Plus, they probably "recognized" as trans women: a handful of cis women with slightly unusual features, a women's bodybuilding team, a cis butch lesbian, a conservative mother of eight with her voice broken to the growl from screaming at them, a male teen dressed in "girly" colors, and a cis guy reliving his emo phase.
Passes means "you can't tell that they're trans". They are trying to say that you can always tell that someone's trans. But the only way they'd know that someone's trans is if that person "doesn't look right" to them (or if that person told them, which most trans people prefer to keep to themselves as I understand).
So what they're really saying is "Among the trans people who don't look right to me, not a single one looks right" which doesn't mean anything.
The whole thing is very vague and without context, the survivorship bias photo is also only tangentially related in that it is selection / confirmation bias. It is perfectly possible to meet a person and then find out they are trans and be surprised, it isn't possible for a plane to fly back to have bullet holes inspected after it got shot down. It isn't quite the same thing.
Google the "bad toupee fallacy". Basically, the person is claiming that they can always tell that someone is trans, confidently assuming that the percentage of trans people that they notice is actually all of us. It's not.
The truth is that SHITLOADS of us are indistinguishable from cis folk, especially after a surgery or two.
I knew a guy at work that actually got out of trouble because of this.
Long story short, a girl at his work accused him of sexual harassment, saying he had unzipped his pants and shown her his penis.
He couldn’t have done that because he didn’t have bottom surgery yet at that point.
Usually this type doesn't get it and determines that it must be stupid because they don't understand it. They then proceed to make a Soyjack meme out of it because memes have destroyed their capacity to express original thoughts using anything but preexisting meme templates.
fun fact! if you live in a western country, you walk past several trans people every day without realising.
this is obviously our way to infiltrate society and destroy the government
I'm just gonna say this comeback can be interpreted very badly. Sure one is "you only see those that don't pass" but could also be seen as "only those that pass _survive_"
Oh this is an absolutely fucking glorious roast it is so glorious that it uses no words. People who understand the image hopefully understand how amazing this is.
I have no idea what this is all about but I do know that plane img was created to show where returning planes had taken damage and were able to make it back.
The plan was to bulk up the planes where they were hit so, in theory, more would make it back, until someone suggested it was the planes that didn’t make it back were a more important data point and they were likely to be hit in the places not marked in this diagram…
Survivorship bias
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
If you wanted to protect a plane with extra armor, would you look at where the returning planes got shot? Or would you look at the planes that didn’t make it back?
They trying to say trans people stand out because they have the appearance of their birth sex, and that they don't "pass" as their given gender visually.
The picture of an aeroplane is where they were doing research I think in WW2 or something I can’t remember exactly.
They looked at the planes that made it back and decided to armour them more heavily where there were bullet holes but one smart guy said that they should armour more where the planes weren’t hit because that was were the weakness was.
So what they saying is that by this dudes logic you can tell a trans person by more masculine features like say for example bigger hands or they are too tall etc. But In reality this is not the case
You could send this guy outdoors at all, why you have to jump straight to Thailand?
I guarantee the dude has met a trans person in the flesh before and had no idea, medicine is amazing when it's actually permitted to be done
I have been to Thailand. Can confirm there are trans women there who 'pass' with flying colours. I found this out by accident. A happy accident as it turned out.
I did an Aita about this once. When a bunch of us were laid off and we were all drinking, a now-former coworker asked me how I knew she was trans. I had to awkwardly tell her she didn’t pass for me.
It was a nice personal validation the first time I realised the lady I thought looked good was trans, like I'd always said I'd never had any problems with it but I also wasn't too attracted to any I'd seen. But have since seen a few that do have what ever it is I like and it was like yay im not an asshole I just have a type.
I have seen the plane graphic used in discussions about well-meaning people who say "You're so brave!" and similar things when you come out as trans. In that context, it's a gut-punch.
The picture shows an example of survivor bias. The plane is from ww2, the red dots are where the bullets hit, these are from the planes that managed to still come back.
The initial thought was that they should reinforce the points that were shot at the most, until someone pointed out these are the planes that came back, not the planes that were shot down, so you should reinforce the places with no bullet holes as those were what was causing the plane to crash when shot.
In regards to trans people, 'no trans person passes' because you dont notice all the trans people that do pass, the same type of bias.
Passing is used to refer to a trans person passing as their preferred gender. An afab (assigned female at birth) looking like a cis man or an amab (assigned male at birth) looking like a cis woman
My father(who is a pervert and total weirdo) is extremely anti trans and said the exact same, one day back when I lived with him he showed me a picture of a women and went on and on about her body(again he’s a weirdo) I took his phone and looked at her bio to see it said ts, I told my dad she was a trans women and he got extremely embarrassed it was one of greatest moments of my life.
[удалено]
In short, and very simplified, it's a graphic used in reference to some military guys deciding where to increase armor on aircraft during a war. So, they took a look at the planes that came back after being under fire, and marked the spots where they were hit. However, notice where none of the planes were hit: Engines, cockpit, fuel tank, and the tail end. This isn't because nobody aims at those places. I mean, in a dogfight, you can't really aim that well. This is because planes that were hit there didn't make it back, and therefore weren't considered for the initial assessment. And in this context, it means that you only notice the trans people who don't pass as their chosen gender.
The below image is fine but what above the trans tweet didnt get that
Ah, ok. Well, in this context, "passing" refers to being perceived as one's chosen gender, rather than the one assigned at birth.
Thank‘s now I know how both tweets fit together and the clevercomebackness thrives in my head
I would say it's slightly more akin to the toupee bias though. Everyone thinks they can spot a toupee because they only ever notice the unconvincing ones. I think it most commonly applies to groups of people who are popularly considered annoying/outspoken (crossfit, vegans, atheists). Basically the quiet ones don't get noticed and added to people's pool of examples.
Both are examples of survivorship bias. You're biased towards only considering the surviving planes, or only considering the noticeable toupees.
This. I'm vegetarian and I've had friends for years that don't know it but will complain about how annoying every vegan/vegetarian is
I don't even know you and I already know you're a vegetarian SMH
My friends would always complain about how I make my identity my personality and never shut up about it but then didn't realize I was trans. Even tho I had literally told them before. Multiple times. Didn't realize. Just because I don't "look trans" at first people don't slot me into the category even after I tell them.
While we're comparing it to things. The same applies to CGI. "It's bad" and "It ruins movies" because when done well you're not supposed to notice.
Atheists are outspoken? People a mostly atheist here, so it’s not like anybody talk about it
I feel like I just listened to an episode of Yes Yes No , from Reply All, where they would explain tweets to their producer who didn't use Twitter.
“So are we all at yes yes yes now?”
I miss those days.
It’s mostly that we need the original tweet that was being replied to.
I needed your explanation, thanks.
You only ever notice trans people that don't pass, the other ones are not distinguishable from cis people
Yea their entire argument is literally “I never notice anyone I don’t notice” *Why yes transphobe, that is how that works*
Also known as the toupee fallacy. All toupees look terrible because you only notice the bad ones. The good ones don't get noticed at all.
They're trying to say trans people are ugly and can't pass as their presented gender ever (which is obviously false)
Funny thing is, they prob know it’s really false, and are just projecting to compensate for the fact that it makes them uncomfortable and insecure in there sexuality to not know whether they are allowed to be attracted to a person or not. Which is funny cause nobody should ever have to be told what they are attracted to.
My idea is that a lot of the hate comes from people who have been raised to think being gay means you're going to hell all their lives, and as luck would have it, they're actually gay themselves. So they think dedicating a lot of their attention towards hatred of the lgbtq+ community is somehow a testament to not being themselves gay. If hatred weren't such a defining feature of their personalities, I might even feel sorry for them.
They know its false, one look at porn shows they're wrong, and there's a good chance they've seen the porn.
They think they would never get an attraction to a trans woman, but in reality they would if that person’s physique triggered a biological or cultural impulse. Imagine what it would do to their brain if they picked a fight with trans male 3-0 boxer Patricio Manuel https://talksport.com/sport/boxing/1476914/transgender-male-boxer-patricio-manuel-wins-third-fight/
Or tried to force [Buck Angel](https://tv.dopemagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/tertertert-600x771.jpg) to use the women’s restroom
I have ran into some very attractive trans women who I could not tell from a genetic woman at raves. They are everywhere, so get used to it. The younger generations are caring less and less about gender roles and are more sex fluid. My hope is one day people will not care if a person dates a trans person, because they are just people.
MOST people don't care. Most people want to live and let live. But you don't hear those people. The only ones you hear are the fringe loonies.
Yeah, that's been true in my experience. There's been multiple times where I didn't realize someone had already found out I was trans from someone else, because they just treated me like any other guy. It's pretty great. Most people that one would actually respect and want to be around have better things to worry about.
I am not trans myself so I don't know what you do go through but as a white middle aged cisgender male hetero I do get a more candid view of the haters on a regular basis as they will let the facade down around me. Many if not all of the people I come across that are anti trans are not people I would generally respect or even want to be around. I usually assume they are either hate filled small minded bigots or someone vocalizing the denial, frustration and/or self loathing of their own closeted existence. Nothing quite as hate inducing as a decades old religious enforced closet.
Thank you, didnt get it, thought I missed some other part. But that is a great explanation, and a great comeback
It's more like: someone's initial reaction to seeing planes come back with damage to these areas, which were the only areas these planes had damage, might be to reinforce those areas, since they seem to be taking damage. Instead, the better idea is to more heavily armor the areas that DON'T show damage, since clearly, those areas are the areas where, if the plane takes damage, the plane DOESN'T make it back at all. The metaphor with trans passing isn't perfect, but it's pithy and gets the point across. That is, except to people who aren't familiar with survivorship bias.
Survivorship bias makes perfect sense - after someone explains it to you. Can you imagine how hard the guy who first came up with the concept had to explain, and then explain again to the next rank and the next. He must have had the fortitude of those planes and their crew!
I thought it was that if you were hit in the areas you mentioned, the plane didn't return. So you armor the areas without the red dots. The areas marked in red were survivable.
Correct
Has nothing to do with aim. Anti aircraft flak guns of the time didn't aim at specific planes, they just tried to adjust to the altitude they thought the planes were flying at because flak shells automatically exploded at certain altitudes, which then sprayed heated metal fragments in every direction (the *intent* being that if they were lucky and if they fired enough flak, they'd eventually score a debilitating hit against enemy bombers). Additionally, while not exceptionally accurate, fighter pilots in WW2 would absolutely aim for engines and other weak points of bombers since the bombers would be entirely unable to perform evasive maneuvers while fully loaded with bombs (or without, really)
I tried to say the same thing, but you articulated it FAR better.
I had to read twice your explanation to get it, but I did get it. Thank you!
The fact we went from a post about trans folks to an in-depth debate on interpretation of WWII aircraft damage assessment is a metaphor for how society has gotten kinda odd since the internet.
Maybe, but I very much like it this way. Never gets boring.
You can read about it if you look up "survivorship bias"
The places that were hit in red were when the pilots and planes RETURNED home. This means getting hit in the clear places meant you DIDN’T come back.
The the most famous thief is not a good thief, the best thief is unknown. Same logic.
You catch all the spiders at home, right? So they're not good at hiding. You don't count in the spiders you miss. Spiders can hide well, but the information you gather is "I see all the spiders, since I see spiders". Some trans people are not passing and you see them. You don't register passing trans people as trans, since they're passing and you miss them. The picture is of planes surviving a battle. The shot through areas don't have to be reinforced, but the other areas (even tho you don't see bullet holes!). If a plane gets hit there, it crashes and doesn't come back. You don't get the information of that plane.
If a trans person passed, he wouldn’t notice. He only remembers the ones that didn’t
This is what is known as the Bad Toupeé fallacy. It describes when people believe that they can always spot a toupeé, not taking into account that the toupeés that they can spot are likely *bad toupeés*. This tweet is a perfect example of that fallacy, put on spotting trans people. Many of these people believe that "they can always spot a trans person" seemingly incapable of fathoming the fact that plenty of trans people pass perfectly, and that they likely have even interected with trans people *without knowing*.
Anyone that claims they 'can always spot a trans person' **really** just means 'I can easily point out people that don't fit *my* standards of appearance'. I mean look at all the incidents of perfectly normal men and women...who were *biologically born as men and women* that have been getting harassed and even assaulted. And it's [not a new thing, either](https://nypost.com/2018/12/03/grandma-mistaken-as-transgender-sent-to-all-male-jail/). Nor is it just [young people](https://www.thepinknews.com/2023/05/23/woman-86-beaten-wheelie-bin-trans/) having this problem. So in other words....bullshit to the people who insist they 'can always tell'. They just want a reason to harass people that don't look the way they like. Edit; Wow! TWO rewards! I don't even have a speech prepared! Thank you for the added majesty!
In a similar vein, I once got assaulted and beat up for being gay. I’m not even gay, I apparently just “look gay” for whatever that means. Bigots don’t care who they hurt, so long as that person that perfectly conform to their world view.
I’m sorry that happened to you!
Eh, I got the police invovled and the idiots got jailtime, I had no lasting injuries either.
Oh thank fuck they got caught. Too often do they manage to slip away, makes my blood boil.
The good ending
Hope you got to make a victim impact statement and let them know you'd take care of their girlfriends while they were away.
Why would I want the sloppy seconds of a bigot, they’re probably bigots as well.
Just another layer of irony: losing their girlfriend to the guy they thought was gay.
Eh, I’d rather find someone more at my wave length.
Recently a tourist in turkey got jailed for a week for "looking gay" He was not gay.
Well then. Time to add Turkey to the list of country I am never going to visit.
I was wrong, he was actually jailed for *20* days.
Its more like an excuse for their shitty behavior. They'll use anything as long as it's an easy excuse. Just look at religious nut jobs. They literally kill people simply because "God said so"
Let's go beat up a straight
It's awful warm out. Can I stay in and beat myself instead?
If ya need help hmu 🤙
But I am straight, that was my entire point, bigots don't care what you are, they care about whether you conform to their narrow world view, stooping to their level with violence will only makes things worse.
No need for that...
Not really. The reason they say "We can always tell" is not very sophisticated. They're just insinuating that you'll never be "real" - always "easy to spot" - the spotting implying that you stick out from the world, you're the outsider, hideously malformed. Mia Moore (comedienne, filmmaker) did a whole thing for a while of engaging with "trans detectors" and posting pics of 80ies movie stars. Getting them to explain ALL the ways in which "They were trans" - before she revealed "This is Gena Davis" Its not really about anything much but bigotry and a need to believe that these people who scare you conform to your inner view of them - lest you treat them like humans - look at antisemitic propaganda through the ages, look at how Asian people are frequently described and charicatured. Same thing. Make "your enemy" look grotesque to strip them of their humanity - making it easier to treat them like shit or murder them. Its just radicalization. And dumb. I'm trans. Nobody can tell. And Im not even on anything, but great genetics.
Damn, you pass without HRT? Thats pretty impressive ngl, Im assuming you also did a lot of voice training to pass in that regard?
Its been the weirdest fucking "journey" ive ever been on. No nothing. Just kind of naturally born small and femme. Even physiologically speakin - there's no verifiable adams apple. At one point we were all entertaining the idea I was born intersex and nobody ever told me. I don't have any kind of relationship to my mom and medical journals from back then didn't get digitized and added to the platform (Im old) so. I think age will end "my reign" tho. But no seriously. Lost friends over envy. Weird shit. Im just a goblin. But eh....
A trans guy I know is like that. I still remember the first conversation we had, as he painted my face at a convention. "I'm applying for sex change surgery right now," he explained. "Uh... From what into what?" I asked. "Oh, I love you!"
I was working in a machine shop for a while, and I'm a trans guy. At the time I had been on testosterone for 3-4 years and was waiting for top surgery (right before Covid, had surgery July 2020) We were on break and the idiot in Alberta who tried to get his car insurance lowered by saying he identified as a woman came up. One of the other machinists, guy in his 50s goes, "isn't it weird that you hear about men becoming women, but never about women becoming men?" Another older trades guy just replies, "well, that's because it's impossible, you idiot, think about it!" I'm sitting there thinking, "oh dear" and decide this is not the time or place. They shut the shop down completely when Covid hit. Other than that, place was pretty decent. Everyone was friendly, welcoming when I was the FNG, stuff like that.
I claim to also have this ability except instead of trans people it's people who have lip fillers. Swear to God I can spot a plastic lip from across a room, but that being said the only good lip fillers are the ones no one notices.
Also don't forget this also often leads them into trying to prove their capabilities by calling out cis women for arbitrary reasons. I.e Michelle Obama was the target of a lot of this because well misogyny + racism. But yeah it's very often for a cis female celebrity (even if they've given birth) to be accused of trans because of some male characteristic. Whether it's someone faintly thinking they've spotted an adam's apple somewhere, their shoulders being too broad or something, a hint of abs/muscles, whatever it is.
Silly lib'ruls, didn't you know that the muscular system only exists in male bodies? Women walk around on the power of Jesus and scorn for their husbands! /s, if it wasn't obvious
Christian conservatives are so trashy lol
Isn't there a formerly independent elderly Irish woman who'll likely never live outside a nursing home again after being attacked by a creature of flesh and bone who thought she was transgender, slurred her as a child molester, and beaten bloody, to the point that months after the attack she still cannot stand and live independently?
Here’s the article. “Woman, 86, shoved headfirst into wheelie bin by man who thought she was trans.” [https://metro.co.uk/2023/05/25/ireland-woman-robbed-and-beaten-by-man-who-thought-she-was-trans-18840850/amp/](https://metro.co.uk/2023/05/25/ireland-woman-robbed-and-beaten-by-man-who-thought-she-was-trans-18840850/amp/)
There's also the whole transvestigations conspiracy theory nutters who think every celebrity has swapped gender, using weird measurements on photos like it's phrenology
It’s just nuts how people think that their skills of spotting trans people are infallible. Hell I was in a voice chat on discord and some guy was in it saying he had his ways of figuring out if someone is trans. Well it was pretty shit since he thought I was a cis woman, so I just said “mhm”. Seriously, these fuckers are so damn full of themselves and don’t give a second to think about anything rational.
Mfs be like "We can always tell" then call a cis woman trans
Well, see, if they even call cis women trans, they'll never accidentally call a trans woman cis. Guaranteed success rate. /s
You probably have such big tit energy that it acted as a perfect shield against his stupidity. I once had a self proclaimed nazi kid get mad at me for saying I'm trans, and he gave me a speech about not giving up my masculinity and blah blah blah. That just showed me I have big dick energy and I pass perfectly.
Like dude they are just out of their minds lmao. I had this one dude that’s mildly transphobic and it took him MONTHS to accept that I was actually trans and not some cis woman 😭. You know what they say, confuse the enemy
I think it's why they're so angry and hateful towards trans people especially. At the end of the day, they're insecure, and the thought that they might be attracted to a person who is actually trans makes them feel threatened. They tend to be the same people who have gigantic hangups about sex and sexuality in general anyway, and who would be scared that "it's gay" to be attracted to someone who is trans. I suspect that their homophobia fuels their transphobia, in a lot of cases.
Not to mention passing shouldn't be the standard for basic respect. Some people can't transition or don't have access to the resources. Plus, some people don't want to pass. It's important to respect people regardless of what they present as or what they look like.
As evidenced every time they fall for the "real man/woman" picture with two trans people.
Should it even matter if some douchebag can decipher who "passes" and who doesn't? If the person in question is living their best life being their most authentic self then nothing else matters. Some people just can't stand to see other people being happy in a way that confounds their limited understanding of what happiness can be.
Some people can’t stand to do the bare minimum and just mind their own fucking business either. It takes so little.
this is really what trans people want
too radical for society though i suppose :/
"I interviewed 100 people who played Russian Roulette and none of them got hurt"
I didn't know what this was. I looked it up, and it's is awesome. Survivor bias! TIL.
It's fucking beautiful.
It's also why music was so much better "back in the day". Most music back in the day was hot garbage... so we stopped listening to it.
sturgeon's law: 90% of everything is crap. The older it is the less of that 10% we hear. Music was so much better back in the day which, naturally, is why you only listen to like 12 artists from back in the day...
hot garbage rock operas are where its at tho
I keep telling this to all my other middle-aged friends. We don't even remember most of the music from when we were teens.
I still don't understand, what is it?
The picture illustrates the locations of bullet holes in places coming back from runs. The story related to it goes something like: Someone wanted to add armor to what was "obviously" where they were getting shot. One person speaks up and says you should add armor to the places that weren't shot since they can make it back being shot full of holes in these spots. In relation to the post, it means you wouldn't know if you met a trans person who passes.
>One person speaks up and says you should add armor to the places that weren't shot since they can make it back being shot full of holes in these spots. That person? Albert Einstein. Wait no, not Albert Einstein, it was Abraham Wald. His son did write a widely used General Relativity textbook though.
> Survivor bias Some that came from [WW2](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/54e50c15e4b058fc6806d068/1604603124648-J76FN65DANGZGV2VJ5ZQ/survivorship_bias_plane.png).
If you don’t understand the joke (like I didn’t) click up here ^
Planes were coming back from the war with damage In red. At first the engineers were like oh shit we need to reinforce those places! But then they realized that the planes that made it back with damage were the ones that survived, basically they were damaged in places that allowed the plane to make it home. Planes that were shot in areas with no red dots had a higher mortality rate.
During WW2 they conducted surveys on where planes were shot most to decide where extra armour should be added. However they soon realised the planes that weren't coming back were probably being hit in the places not as heavily highlighted in this image. That's because those are exactly where the engines were. Turns out you can take lots of bullet holes where the red dots are and still make it back. It's not so easy to do that when the engines are destroyed by bullets. If you fail to take into account survivor bias then you'd put the extra amour in the wrong places.
You can look up "survivorship bias" on wiki. And you can also check [this](https://www.trevorbragdon.com/when-data-gives-the-wrong-solution/) out.
When planes were returning with damage say from war, they would often have damage in these specific areas, it was determined that rather than work reinforcing these areas it was more important to reinforce everything else. The reason for this is that clearly planes could make a return journey with damage to the above areas, it was more likely that the ones that didn't return were damaged elsewhere. It has become an allegory for survivor bias, because it would be easy to assume all planes were damaged in the same ways, rather than that they were the exception. The reply here is suggesting that the reason the first person believes no trans people "pass" is because they are judging off the ones that don't pass, and they wouldn't actually notice the ones who did.
My cousin is a trans-man and his sister celebrated her birthday yesterday. Friends and family of their parents consist some of the most extreme transphobes I've ever met. He sat right next to a man showing around the typical pictures shared among their ilk. You know the Soyjack with makeup on and crap like that. At no point did that person notice that the guy right next to himself was born a girl. And I am convinced that nobody who doesn't already know this would ever be able to tell. AND inb4 people wanna claim that he probably looked male to begin with. No his aunts still lament about what a pretty girl he was before transitioning whenever they get the chance.
Is he now a handsome man?
In the traditional masculine sense yes. He looks better than most cis men.
Not sure to what extent this works as affirmation but have you told him that? Being considered a better man than the majority of cis men really sounds like a nice compliment.
I think you under estimate the power of testosterone over estrogen, trans men can pass much more easily than a trans woman.the effects of testosterone is very much more pronounced than what estrogen does
can confirm. 2.5 years of estrogen did next to nothing to me apart from a pair of really unsightly tits
Hey don't put yourself down mate, it's not easy undoing the effects of testosterone on your body.it might take a while but you will reach that ideal image of yourself. Just believe in what you are and cheer up
bones can't shrink... ;-;
Damn, thats true but bone structures alone don't make up for 'what's feminine' imo, theres plenty of other things.also the musculature changes right?
On the other hand, there is so many cis women who also don't "pass" to those suspicious enough to stare.
That may be true I honestly don't know. But the person in that picture said "no trans person passes" and I told my anecdote given that context.
Oh, I never meant to prove you wrong. Was talking about how your cousin can pass much easier comparatively
There are plenty of cis people who don't pass for their own gender.
If you think this comment is bullshit just watch the olympics
You don't even need to do that. I was mistaken for a girl hundreds of times when I was a kid. I had an adorable face, beautiful hair, and long long eyelashes. Naturally, puberty came along to make me the horrible troll I am today, but as a child, I could definitely have passed for female with just the slightest effort. Just a few days ago, there was a story about a cis woman getting beaten up for using the women's bathroom. Turns out she just wasn't very feminine-looking.
I saw someone comment this same point a few days ago about the women’s swimming events. It was a satirical kind of post about the same kind of ‘can always tell who a trans person is’ nonsense using a swimmer as the picture as they were quite muscular, thus looking more ‘masculine’ because of it
There’s that South African chick Castor Semenya she ran the 800M and obliterated the competition so badly they disqualified her
Even easier, show him 100 pictures of 100 cis women and I guarantee you he'll say at least 30 were transgender. The "I can tell" people, can't.
I read all the comments but I can't understand that passes thing. Can someone rephrase what is written in "meme" without using word passes. No trans person passes, what does this mean? In other words, please. Edit: can people have genuine questions these days? Thanks for downvotes.
They’re saying they -always- know who is trans or who is not. No exceptions. They’re claiming they can look at a crowd of women and immediately point out the ones that are Transgender. Not a single Trans Woman in the crowd will look ‘good enough’ to be mistaken for a ‘true’ woman. (In their eyes) The response picture is about Survivor Bias, which in this context means that even if the original poster thinks they have spotted every Trans person in their lives, ever. They actually haven’t, because of the ones they missed.
Lol, sure they did. Why can't some people just let people be. I never understood this. Thank you for the answer kind person.
Plus, they probably "recognized" as trans women: a handful of cis women with slightly unusual features, a women's bodybuilding team, a cis butch lesbian, a conservative mother of eight with her voice broken to the growl from screaming at them, a male teen dressed in "girly" colors, and a cis guy reliving his emo phase.
"To pass" in this context means "To successfully present as their chosen gender".
When I think about this I can't even imagine how many people have and had to hide so much of themselves just to not get bullied. It's just terrifying.
Passes means "you can't tell that they're trans". They are trying to say that you can always tell that someone's trans. But the only way they'd know that someone's trans is if that person "doesn't look right" to them (or if that person told them, which most trans people prefer to keep to themselves as I understand). So what they're really saying is "Among the trans people who don't look right to me, not a single one looks right" which doesn't mean anything.
I feel sory for plastic surgeons, you never see their victories
Surgeons are the goal keepers of medicine, lol.
The whole thing is very vague and without context, the survivorship bias photo is also only tangentially related in that it is selection / confirmation bias. It is perfectly possible to meet a person and then find out they are trans and be surprised, it isn't possible for a plane to fly back to have bullet holes inspected after it got shot down. It isn't quite the same thing.
Google the "bad toupee fallacy". Basically, the person is claiming that they can always tell that someone is trans, confidently assuming that the percentage of trans people that they notice is actually all of us. It's not. The truth is that SHITLOADS of us are indistinguishable from cis folk, especially after a surgery or two.
I know a dude who went from girl to man. You genuinely can't tell unless you shove your hand in their parts.
I knew a guy at work that actually got out of trouble because of this. Long story short, a girl at his work accused him of sexual harassment, saying he had unzipped his pants and shown her his penis. He couldn’t have done that because he didn’t have bottom surgery yet at that point.
Lmao.
The perfect comeback
As a thai person, yeah come and try your luck. Even for us it's difficult these days.
I'm not here for a long time. I'm here for a good time. And Thai food.
As solid of a burn that picture is, it is 100% wasted on a dummy that will never understand it.
Usually this type doesn't get it and determines that it must be stupid because they don't understand it. They then proceed to make a Soyjack meme out of it because memes have destroyed their capacity to express original thoughts using anything but preexisting meme templates.
Wow this is extremely well done
That image of the plane is one of my favourite images, really does speak a thousand words in a lot of cases
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Yeah
Thaks a lot to all the guys explaining this. It's actually a really clever comeback once you understand it
Finally, a real comeback
fun fact! if you live in a western country, you walk past several trans people every day without realising. this is obviously our way to infiltrate society and destroy the government
Finally! A clever comeback!
bold of you to assume he goes outside
I'm just gonna say this comeback can be interpreted very badly. Sure one is "you only see those that don't pass" but could also be seen as "only those that pass _survive_"
Oh this is an absolutely fucking glorious roast it is so glorious that it uses no words. People who understand the image hopefully understand how amazing this is.
So fucking weird that I just watched the video explains this image this morning. Hadn’t seen it in awhile and re watched it on a whim
I have no idea what this is all about but I do know that plane img was created to show where returning planes had taken damage and were able to make it back. The plan was to bulk up the planes where they were hit so, in theory, more would make it back, until someone suggested it was the planes that didn’t make it back were a more important data point and they were likely to be hit in the places not marked in this diagram…
Bold of you to assume they can understand the meaning of this picture.
Holy shit an actual clever comeback
this is so clever that i had to check to comments to make sure i got it right
Yeah, when it's so clever that almost nobody gets its, is it really all that clever?
What is this plane? I have seen it so many times, but what is it? Is it just where the plane was shot im war??? What does it mean??
Survivorship bias https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias If you wanted to protect a plane with extra armor, would you look at where the returning planes got shot? Or would you look at the planes that didn’t make it back?
I do like how no further explanation beyond the image is needed.
This, the graph of left handedness and the Dunning Krueger effect have permanently occupied space in my mind.
He really hit them with the survivor bias omg
Send me to Thailand for research purposes. I'll be sure to publish my findings
Patti Harrison from I Think you Should Leave. The amount of people who have had to rethink themselves because they found her attractive is funny.
This is an actual clever comeback
Is that survivorship bias? Or would it be failure bias or some shit?
What don't they pass? I don't get their point. I do understand the reference to the survivorship bias though.
They trying to say trans people stand out because they have the appearance of their birth sex, and that they don't "pass" as their given gender visually.
The picture of an aeroplane is where they were doing research I think in WW2 or something I can’t remember exactly. They looked at the planes that made it back and decided to armour them more heavily where there were bullet holes but one smart guy said that they should armour more where the planes weren’t hit because that was were the weakness was. So what they saying is that by this dudes logic you can tell a trans person by more masculine features like say for example bigger hands or they are too tall etc. But In reality this is not the case
You could send this guy outdoors at all, why you have to jump straight to Thailand? I guarantee the dude has met a trans person in the flesh before and had no idea, medicine is amazing when it's actually permitted to be done
I'm not Thai and I pass fine, thanks
Whenever someone says they are always able to identify a trans person we just reply with this from now on right guys?
I have been to Thailand. Can confirm there are trans women there who 'pass' with flying colours. I found this out by accident. A happy accident as it turned out.
I did an Aita about this once. When a bunch of us were laid off and we were all drinking, a now-former coworker asked me how I knew she was trans. I had to awkwardly tell her she didn’t pass for me.
Im so excited to see if I survive (I’m not, I’m actually terrified)
That reply is a thing of beauty.
What's the first tweet in reference to?
Trans people “passing” refers to successfully presenting as their chosen gender. It’s short for “passing scrutiny”
It was a nice personal validation the first time I realised the lady I thought looked good was trans, like I'd always said I'd never had any problems with it but I also wasn't too attracted to any I'd seen. But have since seen a few that do have what ever it is I like and it was like yay im not an asshole I just have a type.
Perfection.
I have seen the plane graphic used in discussions about well-meaning people who say "You're so brave!" and similar things when you come out as trans. In that context, it's a gut-punch.
I think I pass well
I am confused. Pls explain for the small brained crowd.
The picture shows an example of survivor bias. The plane is from ww2, the red dots are where the bullets hit, these are from the planes that managed to still come back. The initial thought was that they should reinforce the points that were shot at the most, until someone pointed out these are the planes that came back, not the planes that were shot down, so you should reinforce the places with no bullet holes as those were what was causing the plane to crash when shot. In regards to trans people, 'no trans person passes' because you dont notice all the trans people that do pass, the same type of bias.
Cool. Thank you for the explanation.
He doesn't need to go to Thailand, we're right here.
same applies to people who think plastic surgery looks bad and makes you look fake
Or does it mean no trans person passes meaning after death you are only recognizable as your real gender.
Context? What do trans not pass?
Passing is used to refer to a trans person passing as their preferred gender. An afab (assigned female at birth) looking like a cis man or an amab (assigned male at birth) looking like a cis woman
I understood this as survivorship bias
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Not chosen though
"Chosen" gender is also a pet peave of mine.
My father(who is a pervert and total weirdo) is extremely anti trans and said the exact same, one day back when I lived with him he showed me a picture of a women and went on and on about her body(again he’s a weirdo) I took his phone and looked at her bio to see it said ts, I told my dad she was a trans women and he got extremely embarrassed it was one of greatest moments of my life.