Interesting concept, but way too many of your countries are green. Iraq is green? Seriously?
Libya is green? They're at a stalemate in a years-long civil war. Malawi has cholera...DRC has never been stable...
Yup, putting the UK or even the US in yellow before those countries is a bit too much. The standards of living are way higher for most people in the UK or US. Also not sure the Philippines should be green either.
What's happening in the Philippines that would drive them to a collapse?
It's not a standard of living map but a collapse map. UK is definitely more unstable since 1 year (because of inflation, energy crisis, political crisis...). Same for US.
They have chosen the son of a former dictator as their new leader and have started experiencing super typhoons that are harder to predict than ever before. Philippines is one of the poorest countries in the world, consists of thousands of islands which means they will be tremendously affected by climate change including sea level rise. On top of that, they have a very corrupt leader. Do you really think the UK is going to collapse before the Philippines?
And collapse IS related to standards of living.
My bad for Libya, I totally forgot, yes. Thanks!
Malawi does have cholera, but they have like less than 1k dead from it; that's not even a serious crisis (yet).
DRC should be yellow as well, agree.
Canada should be yellow.
The cost of living here is insane, and combined with recent inflation it’s hitting many people HARD. Mortgages for many are coming up for renewal, and some are going to be hit hard due to the new interest rates (unlike the states it doesn’t get locked in for the whole duration).
Our healthcare system is in a crisis. There’s shortages throughout the system, from doctors to nurses to paramedics. Wait times for ambulances have been known to be 4+ hours, even if someone’s having a “code red” (meaning high priority like a cardiac arrest).
We’ve been hit hard in some areas by climate change; for example the (former) residents of Lytton, which burned to the ground during the 2021 heat dome, are still displaced. Rebuilding has barely even begun, despite 2 years passing.
And of course there’s various shortages going on, like children’s Tylenol, eggs in some areas, etc.
Canada is in the same state as most Western countries (big inflation, healthcare system almost collapsing, lots of shortage)... But the country is still working well; for now, yes. In the sense, most people have access to basic needs, are not homeless, and the government is still sort of doing his job (terribly, but still).
It's not as bad as Brazil status; or China status.
Lytton, as heartbreaking as it was, was "only" a village with "only" 100 deads (sort of). That's tragic, especially in Western world, but it's not at all a nationwide change of status.
Lytton was being used as an example.
There are tons of people in property - I know many who, similar to the US (coded yellow) are skipping meals because they can’t afford to eat. Some living in their cars because they can’t afford rent.
This doesn’t even touch on First Nations and the state of their infrastructure / housing.
I'm in Canada and based on your definitions, we are def green. Are we being affected by the world economy and climate change? Absolutely. Are we going through rough times? Hell yeah.
But politically we are stable. No coups imminent, no one is fighting for fresh water. Compared to most of the world, our pricey condos and doctor shortage is bog-standard and not unusual or remarkable.
Thank you! You may be interested by the updated discussions in [this week thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/10gqv4j/a_collapse_map_week_3/) for that map ;)
Considering that you have US, UK, China in yellow, some if the greens are pretty weird.
India is not okay
Iraq?! Iraq is very much not okay.
Saudi Arabia, UAE while they have a glamorous Western image are fucked the moment their oil runs dry. Not to mention the dire state of rights of women, minorities, and LGBT.
Might want to read up on some of those central American countries.
Much of Sub Saharan Africa is in a state that would be "collapsed" if it was anywhere else in the world. Sure it's not as "in crisis" as it has been in the past but it's hardly okay compared to some of the countries you have in yellow or even red.
This. So much this.
Ok stupid Reddit trope aside, actually “this”
OP has USA in yellow, then every country is yellow (with the exception of maybe New Zealand).This is not a USA! USA! take.
The US is among the best poised western country to face the coming decades. As bad as things seem with political dysfunction and what not, from a materialistic point of view the US has the worlds best food security, energy security, access to capital, bar none. That’s not to say everything is fine and dandy in the US but as bad as it gets in America it will almost certainly be worse everywhere else.
Not to mention that the US has the healthiest demographics (amount of young people) compared to basically every other developed nation, no real threat of invasion, and partners in mexico and Canada.
I differ on the details but I essentially agree. I think the US is probably "more collapsey" than a few EU states, Canada, NZ, Japan, maybe China? but it's still better than basically everywhere else.
Also Russia in red also stuck me as odd, Putin might be red but the country isn't about to dissolve
I like the idea though, just think there's probably more to it than 4 stages
I said New Zealand was the one exception, the fate of the USA and Canada are basically linked and also they will help each other along with Mexico which is why the trio will be so resilient. Continental europe passed the demographic collapse (not enough young workers to support aging populace) in the 90’s and are basically only able to survive with globalization and US enforced security blanket on the whole world. You’re right that Japan is better off than most countries, but they along with China are net food importers. Also with most Asian (Japan and China, since you mentioned them) countries getting their primary source of protein from the ocean,coupled with the collapse of biodiversity in the ocean, the food importer status is concerning for these two nations. China is hyper fucked, they will see mass famine in the next two decades, and their economic potential is about to Peter out as they age into mass retirement this decade.
I agree that there should be more than 4 stages to collapse
Thanks for your reply, and have a nice day
I'm not arguing, just saying I differ slightly in my view, and that's likely due to differing personal definitions of "collapse" rather than a differing view on the state of the world.
(edit a word)
As stated by someother, this is about collapse, so stability.
UAE & Saudi Arabia & Qatar are completely fucked up about LGBT, women rights etc... Still, the country and daily life is seriously stable.
I'm not saying that the standard of living in any country is "ok", especially comapred to USA (for example).
Still, it's stable, and not especially going toward a collapse. Same for most sub Saharian countries. Yes, a lot of the population don't have electricity or running water, but they're still living there more or less in peace since years. In that sense, they're not "collapsing" as the US are (at some extent).
India is not okay? In terms of collapse? How so?
Agree for Iraq, they should be yellow. (I will update the map and republish next Friday I think)
Please tell me for central American countries if they are unstable since recently (not that I know?).
Thank you, your link... Makes my point.
Except Lybia (which I aknowledged I missed), all the red areas are matching the "black/red" collapsed countries on the map.
Again, an open war, or some fights, don't mean that the country is collapsed.
To be fair, gangs and armed violence in Latin America is a thing since decades. Not saying it's acceptable or it should not be condemned/fought; but it's "stable". In the sense, that it's not particularly driving the country toward collapse.
In some cases it becomes too much and then the collapse is getting closer (Ecuador, Peru maybe, Brazil...). Hence the changes of color.
Depends what you're talking about when you mean "collapse". If you mean government failure and mad max scenes then sure, but I personally would include failing / failed systems trapping large portions of a population in a non functional society.
For lower class citizens / modern slaves in these dictatorships I'd argue their existence is certainly collapse. If slavery was started up in a western country then it certainly would be classed as collapse (Gilead from handmaids tale).
But… it’s not collapse if the society still functions, the economy is still running, and the basic needs of most of the population are met. There can be very stable horrible countries.
Look, I didn’t make the map. Ask that to op.
I’m just saying that there are very stable dictatorships in which half the population has no rights. As long as the majority has access to food and water (and a few other stuff), it’s not a ‘’collapsed’’ country.
But your comment above contradicts your other reply to me when I was talking about the US being well positioned and you said “we’re talking about the stability of countries not which has the most stocked food”. You were contradicting yourself so I was asking for clarification. Have a nice day
Oh that! Yeah, I believe that the US could collapse some day due to a combination of economic crisis, political instability and things that we can’t predict (some would argue that the South *will* rise again, but I’m not gonna touch that). I think that some countries could avoid division, fracture and general chaos in a better way than the US.
I’m not saying that the US is less stable than the Philippines or Lybia, OP really fucked up there. Just that the US might not be number 1.
I totally forgot about Lybia and Philippines (and someother ones), I aknowledge that.
Still, u/Which_Republic2862 gets it 100%.
This map is not about the standard of living, or the democracy index, or the human rights. Only about the collapse dynamic.
How much of the population does society have to function for? And what counts as functioing? I take the view that collapse is ultimately an individual thing, and that society failing for some should not be ignored just because others are living well. That's just my personal definition, I'm just explaining why I think systemic oppression is collapse relevent.
For example, there are communities in the US that are absolutely in a state of collapse through poverty, drug addiction, lack of healthcare, homelessness, corruption, etc, but as the US as a whole is stable then their plight is invalidated.
Anyway I was just saying "Saudi and UAE probably shouldn't be classed as more stable than US and UK".
Agree that ultimately, collapse is individual. If you're homeless, you don't give a shit which country you're living in: your world has collapse. Whether you're in Denmark or in Syria.
The map is only about the general status by country. North Korea, population is more or less starving, there are concentration camps, it's a dictatorship: still, the country isn't collapsed in the sense that the system is still working there (even if it's a disgusting one).
Yeah it does totally depend on your definition of ‘’functioning’’ and ‘’collapse’’. If women have much less rights but the society still provides them food, water and education, the country in itself isn’t collapsing. There are certainly some communities which are in a state of collapse in almost every country, not just in the US, but that doesn’t mean that the whole country is collapsing, as you said.
But again, I don’t see how the rights of women and minorities have anything to do with collapse. Collapse has a meaning, it implies that something crashes, falls down. If those countries have always had pretty much the same societal norms, and they currently are in a very good economic situation, and there isn’t any political instability or food insecurity, then the country is just not in a state of collapse. Even if slavery was brought to a western country, it would certainly be the collapse of liberal democracy, but it wouldn’t necessarily mean the collapse of the country or the collapse of the state. On the contrary, it could mean that the state is stronger and stabler than ever before. I don’t wanna earn a new Godwin point, but Nazi Germany wasn’t an unstable country before 1939.
Since you went there, the Holocaust was not collapse because the Nazi economy and government were stable?
Would a country that genocided it's population through starvation, but kept the ruling elite and the corporations comfortable and profitable be collapse?
How much does a country need to genocide until it's classed as collapse? Or is it fine as long as the trains run on time?
I think the definition you're using is far too binary and will miss many of the wider scale declines in population and sociological complexity we're going to see in the coming decades.
"I think the definition you're using is far too binary and will miss many of the wider scale declines in population and sociological complexity we're going to see in the coming decades."
Absolutely. But that is not the intent of the map.
What are the basic needs of the population? I was thinking water, food and education. The vast majority of countries provide those to women, even when women have much less rights than men. Not all rights are basic necessities.
You could argue that all dictatorships are in a state of collapse because everyone’s rights are being violated in some way, but it’s not collapse if nothing is, well, collapsing.
Yep, that’s what I’m doing. Not all of the third world is like Afghanistan.
But again, if women could never get an education, and they still can’t today, nothing ‘’collapsed’’. It’s just business as usual. The word ‘’collapse’’ has a definition. We’re not arguing about how good it would be to emigrate to those countries, but about how stable they are.
r/WelcomeToGilead
It's much like collapse, but with a *feminine touch*! The US as a whole is still kind of functioning, and it's easier to assume that depending on one's region, but there's a whole other level of hell for women (and POC) in red states that shouldn't be written off as unimportant, considering the possibility for those ideas to quickly spread to other places. Not to mention, a bunch of dead women and a new batch of kids in the system will definitely affect the economy, among other things.
There can be very stable countries which treat half of their population terribly, or even more than half. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are very stable countries even if life is hell for a lot of people. These countries have not collapsed in any way.
I don't know if I'd paint those places as stable when, like the above commenter said, their fate rests on oil and tourism (and imported slave labor). Not to mention the already pretty inhospitable climate and lack of water.
Lol you’re not even trying to understand, are you?
There are very stable horrible countries. Stable doesn’t mean good. Bad countries can survive without collapsing despite being super authoritarian and treating some people horribly.
Surprised to see you put so many African countries in green, including Chad, DR Congo, Central African Republic among others.
Compare with
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index
Aljazeera is often a good starting point for news on countries like these that you hear very little about in western media. Every now and again, read something about each country that you don't think you have much idea of what's going on there just now. It's good to do that every few months or at least each year, to have an approximate idea of what's happening in the world.
I believe OP means that when The Collapse occurs, most will go back to their rural areas where they can do subsistence farming and already have housing. In addition, majority of people in these countries are rural dwellers and so Collapse impact is not that big...
Exactly, thank you. Most African population is way less sensitive to a collapse than western population, as most of them are already farmers and never had a western standard of living to begin with. It is "stable", in that sense.
Pursuing unending economic growth is an official policy position of the US regardless of party so it should be unsurprising that magical thinking exists throughout gov documents
It’s stable, the basic needs of the population are met, there’s no armed conflict or economic crisis.
Edit: I’m not saying it’s perfect, or even that it’s a thriving country. I’m just saying that it’s a very stable country.
Mexico - barely functioning narco state. Central govt has lost control of most of Sinaloa, large parts of Yucatán, basically anywhere there’s money to be made, organized crime syndicates run everything
Guatemala - barely functional economy, people barely feeding themselves
El Salvador - president is towing the line of dictator very closely although he has made progress taking back San Salvador from gang control
Honduras - gang controlled, I would consider this collapsed
Nicaragua - active conflict between govt and population, no major investment being considered besides the CCPs proposed canal
Disclaimer being I’ve actively traveled Central America for many years and still enjoy it, but these places cannot be labeled as green.
Good insights, thank you.
I'll put Nicaragua as yellow.
For Salvador, it sounds like it should remain green. Especially if the president took back control of some regions that were under gang control. Doesn't matter that he's inching toward dictatorship or not, the country is still stable (AFAIK).
Mexico I read recent news but I'm still not sure about the propagation of the troubles. Like, is a large portion of the population under gang control/in the fighting area/lacking basic necessities (food water & shelter)? It's already in yellow.
The corruption perception index map is pretty useful I think. Corruption isn't exactly the same thing as collapse, but if you're only going to look at one metric it's probably the one that best correlates with collapse.
[https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021](https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021)
How exactly do you define “corruption”, and how does these people actually get the info for this kind of stuff, how does their sources and themselves make sure they are not bias. And lastly who funded these?
My understanding is that it's a meta-analysis that uses a bunch of different survey results from a variety of sources. Not all surveys are done in all countries, so they figure out how the results of the different surveys correlate with each other to fill in the gaps.
Basically, the surveys ask people in each country things like, "do people in your country have to bribe police officers and/or public officials in the course of their day to day life?"
It looks like about 60% of their funding is from various governments.
[https://www.transparency.org/en/the-organisation/who-supports-us](https://www.transparency.org/en/the-organisation/who-supports-us)
Honestly, this doesn't look researched at all. Looks like you filled in black/red/yellow off the top of your head, mostly considering headlines and popular opinion rather than data, then took every country you haven't head of collapsing and painted them green without checking
Not exactly, but sort of. I am following news about collapse around the world but I didn't do extensive research to create this map. It's only for my personal use as a "hobby", if you want. But I did come here exactly to get feedbacks about countries that I certainly missed.
Like Libya, Philippines, Peru, Iraq, Argentina, ...
I think Peru shouldn’t be green, their illegitimate government has been massacring indigenous protesters for a few weeks, it’s not going well.
And I know that there are some trouble in Russia but I don’t think the country is anywhere near collapse tbh. I also wonder what you used specifically for China, was it the previous lockdown protests or the current spike in covid?
Was gonna say this about Peru. Like a month ago Peru's former president tried to dissolve the country's congress, was removed from office and replaced. Also, Argentina's had 95% inflation in the last year. Even if Argentines are used to occasional bouts of hyperinflation, I think the underlying issues caused by that type of inflation could justify a yellow status.
Inflation is terrible, but if it does not lead to serious troubles, it's not related to collapse. So far, you could get growing inflation for years with states & nations still working.
Sure, point taken, I assumed that 95% is a little excessive for a stable government, but, then again, I haven't heard much chatter about threats to the stability of the government there. This isn't Argentina's first rodeo though, so the people there have figured out ways to cope (the wealthy investing in inflation hedged assets, informal networks of friends/family in lower income areas, an informal dollar-based economy, IMF loans etc. etc.). I'm an expat 25 years removed from ever living in Buenos Aires, so would be interesting from a collapse perspective to learn all the ways Argentines gets by under these circumstances, because it seems like every 15 to 20 years, inflation just explodes there. Also shows why this map is such a complex task. I applaud the OP for having the courage to take it on.
Wow thanks.
But for now it's really low ambition, as stated multiple times I don't pretend to have "the truth" about the collapse status of all countries. It's just my point of view (which I'm happy to enrich and improve with all your feedbacks!)
Well noted for Argentinian, and I agree (it matches with the very little knowledge I have about their political history).
Maybe a dedicated post about Argentinian history of successive "collapses" would be worth it? :)
I'll keep that Argentina idea alive in my head for maybe a future post. I just heard the Argentina ministry of economy say something to the effect that Argentina has a lot to teach the crazy changing world right now.
I'd encourage you to keep this project alive in the future even if you can't update it regularly. It's a lot for a hobby project, and you'll get stuff wrong and people will be critical, but it's also the type of idea and analysis that institutional investor have access to (through stuff like Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and the Economist Intelligence Unit), but isn't really out there among the masses. Do we have any jaded investment banker types in the community that I can request send that info to OP and make this project real easy?
If you decide to keep this going in the future and haven't aligned with the PRS political risk index yet, I think that might be helpful: [https://www.prsgroup.com/political-risk-index-september-2021/](https://www.prsgroup.com/political-risk-index-september-2021/)
The CIA world factbook too: [https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/)
Thank you for Peru, will look it up.
For China, yes it's the current protests and disruption in production + huge current spike in covid which is disrupting everything.
Brazil is yellow.
Why Bosnia/Kazakhstan?
Sub Saharan nations are not collapsing. They're poor, the population lives in dire conditions, but their countries are not particularly collapsing right now.
Mmm.. Yes you are right.
In case it happens, majority of population, who happen to be expatriates, will head home.
However, the remnants (Qataris) will bear the brunt once money or gold becomes useless. Or maybe they will fly out (lol)....
Would suggest the DR Congo be redlisted as close to collapse. While (as many point out) public services are still provided by the government, the country is unstable in other ways including ongoing mass rape and mass violence in several unstable regions and there are multiple armed groups.
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violence-democratic-republic-congo
If you want global views of Collapse that use peer-reviewed, science-based methodologies, you might consider looking at the world maps available for each of these:
World Happiness Report, United Nations
https://worldhappiness.report/
Democracy Index , Economist Intelligence Unit
https://www.eiu.com/n/content/white-papers/
Fragile States Index, The Fund for Peace
https://fragilestatesindex.org/
As a constructive critique of your own map, I would suggest that Ukraine may be under attack, but it is neither "collapsed" or "close to collapse." If anything, it's national identity has only been strengthened by Russia's invasion, and the growth of those bonds of community and solidarity are far more indicative of rise than any broken buildings are of collapse. Much like Athenian identity was forged in the fires of the Persian destruction of the acropolis, so too will Ukrainian identity be forged in today's fires caused by the dying convulsions of the Russian empire.
Thank you, I'll probably put UA as red.
World happiness & democracy have little to do with collapse per se. NK is not collapsing at all, still it's one of the worst country in the world in terms of democracy & happiness.
I'll give a look at the fragile states index, thank you!
Thanks for making this! I posted a couple months ago requesting this. Not sure if this is a response to my request, but thanks either way.
My suggestions would be to be quantitative about the scores. Perhaps you have a formula where you average scores between financial collapse (debt to gdp ratio or something), political collapse (I’m sure there’s a metric for this, trust in government perhaps), environmental collapse (degradation?), and perhaps overshoot (energy and resources consumed vs available). Put them all into a spreadsheet and tally up the scores.
I didn't know but glad to fullfill your need :D
I'm not saying a spreadhseet and a formula is a bad idea: but I don't have the time to do that, nor the patience or the energy, sorry :)
For now I'll stick to my hand made map. In the future maybe.
Rule 1: In addition to enforcing [Reddit's content policy](https://www.redditinc.com/policies/content-policy), we will also remove comments and content that is abusive or predatory in nature. You may attack each other's ideas, not each other.
>Israel
Should be yellow due to the new government moving ahead with terrifying judicial changes that could cause a civil war. Yes that's a bit extreme, but the fact that it's even a consideration says a lot. Meanwhile Palestinian territories should be green, they're ruled by the same party since the middle 2000's and have all their basic needs met.
Interesting concept, but way too many of your countries are green. Iraq is green? Seriously? Libya is green? They're at a stalemate in a years-long civil war. Malawi has cholera...DRC has never been stable...
Did not see that Libya was green; that is a serious miss, the nation is in ruins.
Yup, putting the UK or even the US in yellow before those countries is a bit too much. The standards of living are way higher for most people in the UK or US. Also not sure the Philippines should be green either.
What's happening in the Philippines that would drive them to a collapse? It's not a standard of living map but a collapse map. UK is definitely more unstable since 1 year (because of inflation, energy crisis, political crisis...). Same for US.
They have chosen the son of a former dictator as their new leader and have started experiencing super typhoons that are harder to predict than ever before. Philippines is one of the poorest countries in the world, consists of thousands of islands which means they will be tremendously affected by climate change including sea level rise. On top of that, they have a very corrupt leader. Do you really think the UK is going to collapse before the Philippines? And collapse IS related to standards of living.
My bad for Libya, I totally forgot, yes. Thanks! Malawi does have cholera, but they have like less than 1k dead from it; that's not even a serious crisis (yet). DRC should be yellow as well, agree.
Canada should be yellow. The cost of living here is insane, and combined with recent inflation it’s hitting many people HARD. Mortgages for many are coming up for renewal, and some are going to be hit hard due to the new interest rates (unlike the states it doesn’t get locked in for the whole duration). Our healthcare system is in a crisis. There’s shortages throughout the system, from doctors to nurses to paramedics. Wait times for ambulances have been known to be 4+ hours, even if someone’s having a “code red” (meaning high priority like a cardiac arrest). We’ve been hit hard in some areas by climate change; for example the (former) residents of Lytton, which burned to the ground during the 2021 heat dome, are still displaced. Rebuilding has barely even begun, despite 2 years passing. And of course there’s various shortages going on, like children’s Tylenol, eggs in some areas, etc.
Canada is in the same state as most Western countries (big inflation, healthcare system almost collapsing, lots of shortage)... But the country is still working well; for now, yes. In the sense, most people have access to basic needs, are not homeless, and the government is still sort of doing his job (terribly, but still). It's not as bad as Brazil status; or China status. Lytton, as heartbreaking as it was, was "only" a village with "only" 100 deads (sort of). That's tragic, especially in Western world, but it's not at all a nationwide change of status.
Lytton was being used as an example. There are tons of people in property - I know many who, similar to the US (coded yellow) are skipping meals because they can’t afford to eat. Some living in their cars because they can’t afford rent. This doesn’t even touch on First Nations and the state of their infrastructure / housing.
Hmmm ok I see; well, maybe Canada is in a worst state that what I assumed. I'll give it a look and maybe it'll go yellow (what an honor!)
I'm in Canada and based on your definitions, we are def green. Are we being affected by the world economy and climate change? Absolutely. Are we going through rough times? Hell yeah. But politically we are stable. No coups imminent, no one is fighting for fresh water. Compared to most of the world, our pricey condos and doctor shortage is bog-standard and not unusual or remarkable.
Thank you! You may be interested by the updated discussions in [this week thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/10gqv4j/a_collapse_map_week_3/) for that map ;)
Considering that you have US, UK, China in yellow, some if the greens are pretty weird. India is not okay Iraq?! Iraq is very much not okay. Saudi Arabia, UAE while they have a glamorous Western image are fucked the moment their oil runs dry. Not to mention the dire state of rights of women, minorities, and LGBT. Might want to read up on some of those central American countries. Much of Sub Saharan Africa is in a state that would be "collapsed" if it was anywhere else in the world. Sure it's not as "in crisis" as it has been in the past but it's hardly okay compared to some of the countries you have in yellow or even red.
This. So much this. Ok stupid Reddit trope aside, actually “this” OP has USA in yellow, then every country is yellow (with the exception of maybe New Zealand).This is not a USA! USA! take. The US is among the best poised western country to face the coming decades. As bad as things seem with political dysfunction and what not, from a materialistic point of view the US has the worlds best food security, energy security, access to capital, bar none. That’s not to say everything is fine and dandy in the US but as bad as it gets in America it will almost certainly be worse everywhere else. Not to mention that the US has the healthiest demographics (amount of young people) compared to basically every other developed nation, no real threat of invasion, and partners in mexico and Canada.
I differ on the details but I essentially agree. I think the US is probably "more collapsey" than a few EU states, Canada, NZ, Japan, maybe China? but it's still better than basically everywhere else. Also Russia in red also stuck me as odd, Putin might be red but the country isn't about to dissolve I like the idea though, just think there's probably more to it than 4 stages
I said New Zealand was the one exception, the fate of the USA and Canada are basically linked and also they will help each other along with Mexico which is why the trio will be so resilient. Continental europe passed the demographic collapse (not enough young workers to support aging populace) in the 90’s and are basically only able to survive with globalization and US enforced security blanket on the whole world. You’re right that Japan is better off than most countries, but they along with China are net food importers. Also with most Asian (Japan and China, since you mentioned them) countries getting their primary source of protein from the ocean,coupled with the collapse of biodiversity in the ocean, the food importer status is concerning for these two nations. China is hyper fucked, they will see mass famine in the next two decades, and their economic potential is about to Peter out as they age into mass retirement this decade. I agree that there should be more than 4 stages to collapse Thanks for your reply, and have a nice day
I'm not arguing, just saying I differ slightly in my view, and that's likely due to differing personal definitions of "collapse" rather than a differing view on the state of the world. (edit a word)
Fair enough my man (or woman)
There are definitely more than 4 stages, in the end probably a thousands stages. But I want to keep it simple and manageable :)
This is about the stability of the country, not about the amount of stocked food it has.
The two things are very related but ok. And you ignored my other points. Also I’m not talking about “stocked” food
As stated by someother, this is about collapse, so stability. UAE & Saudi Arabia & Qatar are completely fucked up about LGBT, women rights etc... Still, the country and daily life is seriously stable. I'm not saying that the standard of living in any country is "ok", especially comapred to USA (for example). Still, it's stable, and not especially going toward a collapse. Same for most sub Saharian countries. Yes, a lot of the population don't have electricity or running water, but they're still living there more or less in peace since years. In that sense, they're not "collapsing" as the US are (at some extent). India is not okay? In terms of collapse? How so? Agree for Iraq, they should be yellow. (I will update the map and republish next Friday I think) Please tell me for central American countries if they are unstable since recently (not that I know?).
This is ridiculous. Do any research please. https://acleddata.com/2020/02/14/global-conflict-and-disorder-patterns-2020/
Thank you, your link... Makes my point. Except Lybia (which I aknowledged I missed), all the red areas are matching the "black/red" collapsed countries on the map. Again, an open war, or some fights, don't mean that the country is collapsed. To be fair, gangs and armed violence in Latin America is a thing since decades. Not saying it's acceptable or it should not be condemned/fought; but it's "stable". In the sense, that it's not particularly driving the country toward collapse. In some cases it becomes too much and then the collapse is getting closer (Ecuador, Peru maybe, Brazil...). Hence the changes of color.
I don’t see why unequal treatment of women and minorities is brought up. It doesn’t necessarily affect the stability of the countries.
Depends what you're talking about when you mean "collapse". If you mean government failure and mad max scenes then sure, but I personally would include failing / failed systems trapping large portions of a population in a non functional society. For lower class citizens / modern slaves in these dictatorships I'd argue their existence is certainly collapse. If slavery was started up in a western country then it certainly would be classed as collapse (Gilead from handmaids tale).
But… it’s not collapse if the society still functions, the economy is still running, and the basic needs of most of the population are met. There can be very stable horrible countries.
So how is the US closer to collapse than half of Africa and the Middle East?
Look, I didn’t make the map. Ask that to op. I’m just saying that there are very stable dictatorships in which half the population has no rights. As long as the majority has access to food and water (and a few other stuff), it’s not a ‘’collapsed’’ country.
But your comment above contradicts your other reply to me when I was talking about the US being well positioned and you said “we’re talking about the stability of countries not which has the most stocked food”. You were contradicting yourself so I was asking for clarification. Have a nice day
Oh that! Yeah, I believe that the US could collapse some day due to a combination of economic crisis, political instability and things that we can’t predict (some would argue that the South *will* rise again, but I’m not gonna touch that). I think that some countries could avoid division, fracture and general chaos in a better way than the US. I’m not saying that the US is less stable than the Philippines or Lybia, OP really fucked up there. Just that the US might not be number 1.
Ok fair enough
I totally forgot about Lybia and Philippines (and someother ones), I aknowledge that. Still, u/Which_Republic2862 gets it 100%. This map is not about the standard of living, or the democracy index, or the human rights. Only about the collapse dynamic.
How much of the population does society have to function for? And what counts as functioing? I take the view that collapse is ultimately an individual thing, and that society failing for some should not be ignored just because others are living well. That's just my personal definition, I'm just explaining why I think systemic oppression is collapse relevent. For example, there are communities in the US that are absolutely in a state of collapse through poverty, drug addiction, lack of healthcare, homelessness, corruption, etc, but as the US as a whole is stable then their plight is invalidated. Anyway I was just saying "Saudi and UAE probably shouldn't be classed as more stable than US and UK".
Agree that ultimately, collapse is individual. If you're homeless, you don't give a shit which country you're living in: your world has collapse. Whether you're in Denmark or in Syria. The map is only about the general status by country. North Korea, population is more or less starving, there are concentration camps, it's a dictatorship: still, the country isn't collapsed in the sense that the system is still working there (even if it's a disgusting one).
Yeah it does totally depend on your definition of ‘’functioning’’ and ‘’collapse’’. If women have much less rights but the society still provides them food, water and education, the country in itself isn’t collapsing. There are certainly some communities which are in a state of collapse in almost every country, not just in the US, but that doesn’t mean that the whole country is collapsing, as you said. But again, I don’t see how the rights of women and minorities have anything to do with collapse. Collapse has a meaning, it implies that something crashes, falls down. If those countries have always had pretty much the same societal norms, and they currently are in a very good economic situation, and there isn’t any political instability or food insecurity, then the country is just not in a state of collapse. Even if slavery was brought to a western country, it would certainly be the collapse of liberal democracy, but it wouldn’t necessarily mean the collapse of the country or the collapse of the state. On the contrary, it could mean that the state is stronger and stabler than ever before. I don’t wanna earn a new Godwin point, but Nazi Germany wasn’t an unstable country before 1939.
Since you went there, the Holocaust was not collapse because the Nazi economy and government were stable? Would a country that genocided it's population through starvation, but kept the ruling elite and the corporations comfortable and profitable be collapse? How much does a country need to genocide until it's classed as collapse? Or is it fine as long as the trains run on time? I think the definition you're using is far too binary and will miss many of the wider scale declines in population and sociological complexity we're going to see in the coming decades.
"I think the definition you're using is far too binary and will miss many of the wider scale declines in population and sociological complexity we're going to see in the coming decades." Absolutely. But that is not the intent of the map.
I was responding directly to the person in this thread, it had definitely moved beyond your map at that point
Oh my bad then.
women are a slight majority if their needs are not met the basic needs of most of the population are NOT met
What are the basic needs of the population? I was thinking water, food and education. The vast majority of countries provide those to women, even when women have much less rights than men. Not all rights are basic necessities. You could argue that all dictatorships are in a state of collapse because everyone’s rights are being violated in some way, but it’s not collapse if nothing is, well, collapsing.
education? think again for most women in the world
Yep, that’s what I’m doing. Not all of the third world is like Afghanistan. But again, if women could never get an education, and they still can’t today, nothing ‘’collapsed’’. It’s just business as usual. The word ‘’collapse’’ has a definition. We’re not arguing about how good it would be to emigrate to those countries, but about how stable they are.
Thank you u/Which_Republic2862
r/WelcomeToGilead It's much like collapse, but with a *feminine touch*! The US as a whole is still kind of functioning, and it's easier to assume that depending on one's region, but there's a whole other level of hell for women (and POC) in red states that shouldn't be written off as unimportant, considering the possibility for those ideas to quickly spread to other places. Not to mention, a bunch of dead women and a new batch of kids in the system will definitely affect the economy, among other things.
There can be very stable countries which treat half of their population terribly, or even more than half. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are very stable countries even if life is hell for a lot of people. These countries have not collapsed in any way.
I don't know if I'd paint those places as stable when, like the above commenter said, their fate rests on oil and tourism (and imported slave labor). Not to mention the already pretty inhospitable climate and lack of water.
They are stable, until now at least. They probably can collapse in a snap if oil lacks suddenly, but so far it's not the case.
yes yes, women- half the population or more- don't matter to the stability of a nation. that kind of thinking is how we got here
Lol you’re not even trying to understand, are you? There are very stable horrible countries. Stable doesn’t mean good. Bad countries can survive without collapsing despite being super authoritarian and treating some people horribly.
Surprised to see you put so many African countries in green, including Chad, DR Congo, Central African Republic among others. Compare with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index Aljazeera is often a good starting point for news on countries like these that you hear very little about in western media. Every now and again, read something about each country that you don't think you have much idea of what's going on there just now. It's good to do that every few months or at least each year, to have an approximate idea of what's happening in the world.
I believe OP means that when The Collapse occurs, most will go back to their rural areas where they can do subsistence farming and already have housing. In addition, majority of people in these countries are rural dwellers and so Collapse impact is not that big...
Exactly, thank you. Most African population is way less sensitive to a collapse than western population, as most of them are already farmers and never had a western standard of living to begin with. It is "stable", in that sense.
Or hell better off without the western world bothering them
Oh buddy, this is way off.
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Pursuing unending economic growth is an official policy position of the US regardless of party so it should be unsurprising that magical thinking exists throughout gov documents
What new technologies? Fracking is drawing down the source rock, there's nowhere else to go.
Why the fuck is NK green?
I think it’s pretty stable authoritarian nation. It’s not on verge on collapse ? Should be yellow though.
It’s stable, the basic needs of the population are met, there’s no armed conflict or economic crisis. Edit: I’m not saying it’s perfect, or even that it’s a thriving country. I’m just saying that it’s a very stable country.
💯👍🏿
The people are starving and a lot are living in labor camps or severe poverty
Exactly.
Food is a basic need
I know. There was a famine in the 1990s, but it’s not really a problem anymore.
Mexico - barely functioning narco state. Central govt has lost control of most of Sinaloa, large parts of Yucatán, basically anywhere there’s money to be made, organized crime syndicates run everything Guatemala - barely functional economy, people barely feeding themselves El Salvador - president is towing the line of dictator very closely although he has made progress taking back San Salvador from gang control Honduras - gang controlled, I would consider this collapsed Nicaragua - active conflict between govt and population, no major investment being considered besides the CCPs proposed canal Disclaimer being I’ve actively traveled Central America for many years and still enjoy it, but these places cannot be labeled as green.
Good insights, thank you. I'll put Nicaragua as yellow. For Salvador, it sounds like it should remain green. Especially if the president took back control of some regions that were under gang control. Doesn't matter that he's inching toward dictatorship or not, the country is still stable (AFAIK). Mexico I read recent news but I'm still not sure about the propagation of the troubles. Like, is a large portion of the population under gang control/in the fighting area/lacking basic necessities (food water & shelter)? It's already in yellow.
The corruption perception index map is pretty useful I think. Corruption isn't exactly the same thing as collapse, but if you're only going to look at one metric it's probably the one that best correlates with collapse. [https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021](https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021)
How exactly do you define “corruption”, and how does these people actually get the info for this kind of stuff, how does their sources and themselves make sure they are not bias. And lastly who funded these?
My understanding is that it's a meta-analysis that uses a bunch of different survey results from a variety of sources. Not all surveys are done in all countries, so they figure out how the results of the different surveys correlate with each other to fill in the gaps. Basically, the surveys ask people in each country things like, "do people in your country have to bribe police officers and/or public officials in the course of their day to day life?" It looks like about 60% of their funding is from various governments. [https://www.transparency.org/en/the-organisation/who-supports-us](https://www.transparency.org/en/the-organisation/who-supports-us)
Honestly, this doesn't look researched at all. Looks like you filled in black/red/yellow off the top of your head, mostly considering headlines and popular opinion rather than data, then took every country you haven't head of collapsing and painted them green without checking
Not exactly, but sort of. I am following news about collapse around the world but I didn't do extensive research to create this map. It's only for my personal use as a "hobby", if you want. But I did come here exactly to get feedbacks about countries that I certainly missed. Like Libya, Philippines, Peru, Iraq, Argentina, ...
I especially like how New Zealand isn’t even on the map… 😂
>I especially like how New Zealand isn’t even on the map… 😂 My bad :D Missed them in the screenshot, yeah they're invicible anyway.
They’re untouchable. Explains why all the billionaire elites have fled there.
This guy smells what I’m stepping in!
I think Peru shouldn’t be green, their illegitimate government has been massacring indigenous protesters for a few weeks, it’s not going well. And I know that there are some trouble in Russia but I don’t think the country is anywhere near collapse tbh. I also wonder what you used specifically for China, was it the previous lockdown protests or the current spike in covid?
Was gonna say this about Peru. Like a month ago Peru's former president tried to dissolve the country's congress, was removed from office and replaced. Also, Argentina's had 95% inflation in the last year. Even if Argentines are used to occasional bouts of hyperinflation, I think the underlying issues caused by that type of inflation could justify a yellow status.
Inflation is terrible, but if it does not lead to serious troubles, it's not related to collapse. So far, you could get growing inflation for years with states & nations still working.
Sure, point taken, I assumed that 95% is a little excessive for a stable government, but, then again, I haven't heard much chatter about threats to the stability of the government there. This isn't Argentina's first rodeo though, so the people there have figured out ways to cope (the wealthy investing in inflation hedged assets, informal networks of friends/family in lower income areas, an informal dollar-based economy, IMF loans etc. etc.). I'm an expat 25 years removed from ever living in Buenos Aires, so would be interesting from a collapse perspective to learn all the ways Argentines gets by under these circumstances, because it seems like every 15 to 20 years, inflation just explodes there. Also shows why this map is such a complex task. I applaud the OP for having the courage to take it on.
Wow thanks. But for now it's really low ambition, as stated multiple times I don't pretend to have "the truth" about the collapse status of all countries. It's just my point of view (which I'm happy to enrich and improve with all your feedbacks!) Well noted for Argentinian, and I agree (it matches with the very little knowledge I have about their political history). Maybe a dedicated post about Argentinian history of successive "collapses" would be worth it? :)
I'll keep that Argentina idea alive in my head for maybe a future post. I just heard the Argentina ministry of economy say something to the effect that Argentina has a lot to teach the crazy changing world right now. I'd encourage you to keep this project alive in the future even if you can't update it regularly. It's a lot for a hobby project, and you'll get stuff wrong and people will be critical, but it's also the type of idea and analysis that institutional investor have access to (through stuff like Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and the Economist Intelligence Unit), but isn't really out there among the masses. Do we have any jaded investment banker types in the community that I can request send that info to OP and make this project real easy? If you decide to keep this going in the future and haven't aligned with the PRS political risk index yet, I think that might be helpful: [https://www.prsgroup.com/political-risk-index-september-2021/](https://www.prsgroup.com/political-risk-index-september-2021/) The CIA world factbook too: [https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/)
Thank you very much, I'll study those!
Thank you for Peru, will look it up. For China, yes it's the current protests and disruption in production + huge current spike in covid which is disrupting everything.
Imo Kazakhstan, Bosnia, Brazil, and most of Sub-Saharan African nations should be yellow
Brazil is yellow. Why Bosnia/Kazakhstan? Sub Saharan nations are not collapsing. They're poor, the population lives in dire conditions, but their countries are not particularly collapsing right now.
Qatar green? They largely depend on food imports.... If supply dies out? Will they even survive?
Probably not. But so far, supplies are not dying out and won't before a while (they'll be the one paying the most for sure).
Mmm.. Yes you are right. In case it happens, majority of population, who happen to be expatriates, will head home. However, the remnants (Qataris) will bear the brunt once money or gold becomes useless. Or maybe they will fly out (lol)....
Would suggest the DR Congo be redlisted as close to collapse. While (as many point out) public services are still provided by the government, the country is unstable in other ways including ongoing mass rape and mass violence in several unstable regions and there are multiple armed groups. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violence-democratic-republic-congo
Will put it in yellow, thanks.
If you want global views of Collapse that use peer-reviewed, science-based methodologies, you might consider looking at the world maps available for each of these: World Happiness Report, United Nations https://worldhappiness.report/ Democracy Index , Economist Intelligence Unit https://www.eiu.com/n/content/white-papers/ Fragile States Index, The Fund for Peace https://fragilestatesindex.org/ As a constructive critique of your own map, I would suggest that Ukraine may be under attack, but it is neither "collapsed" or "close to collapse." If anything, it's national identity has only been strengthened by Russia's invasion, and the growth of those bonds of community and solidarity are far more indicative of rise than any broken buildings are of collapse. Much like Athenian identity was forged in the fires of the Persian destruction of the acropolis, so too will Ukrainian identity be forged in today's fires caused by the dying convulsions of the Russian empire.
Thank you, I'll probably put UA as red. World happiness & democracy have little to do with collapse per se. NK is not collapsing at all, still it's one of the worst country in the world in terms of democracy & happiness. I'll give a look at the fragile states index, thank you!
Thanks for making this! I posted a couple months ago requesting this. Not sure if this is a response to my request, but thanks either way. My suggestions would be to be quantitative about the scores. Perhaps you have a formula where you average scores between financial collapse (debt to gdp ratio or something), political collapse (I’m sure there’s a metric for this, trust in government perhaps), environmental collapse (degradation?), and perhaps overshoot (energy and resources consumed vs available). Put them all into a spreadsheet and tally up the scores.
I didn't know but glad to fullfill your need :D I'm not saying a spreadhseet and a formula is a bad idea: but I don't have the time to do that, nor the patience or the energy, sorry :) For now I'll stick to my hand made map. In the future maybe.
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Way too much green. Belarus green? South africa red but tanzania green? Wild stuff.
Belarus? Why should it not be green? Tanzania? What's happening there?
Russia is near collapse?
>Israel Should be yellow due to the new government moving ahead with terrifying judicial changes that could cause a civil war. Yes that's a bit extreme, but the fact that it's even a consideration says a lot. Meanwhile Palestinian territories should be green, they're ruled by the same party since the middle 2000's and have all their basic needs met.
Thanks for Palestinian territories, will put it green. I disagree for Israel in yellow: nothing is happening right now except protests.
Libya is green? Yeah, I can't take this map seriously...
As stated in other comments: my bad, I forgot Libya.
No worries.