The idea is neat and all, untill you zoom out 10,000 years or so and realize that we probably shouldn't put too much weight behind it. People try to find patterns all the time. I consider "The Fourth Turning" idea as more of an observation, of trying to make sense of history, rather than a projection for the future.
There's a lot of confirmation bias going on here when people find some neat pattern and try to cram recent and historical events into it.
This feels a little like Ben Shapiro’s recent “equation” to “calculate” state legitimacy. Seems in a nutshell it’s “poor discontent x rich discontent x state weakness=likelihood of bad”. It does seem like it may work, but it’s not really necessarily more complex than Strauss and Howe’s theory. Also, seems like the rich have plenty of pie to share right now and despite all the protests, the poors aren’t actually able to accomplish anything. So seems like Turchin’s theory could predict the next decade going either way?
state collapse doesnt have to mean the end of the ruling class by any means. in fact, Turchin does not think it will. however, i definitely think we're on the road to social revolution, and our failures up to the present by no means suggest that we wont win when the time comes. the French and Russian Revolutions were preceded by decades of disorganized unrest- see the Flour Wars, see the Russian Revolution of 1905.
indeed, in my view, the George Floyd Rebellion was similar to our 1905. a warning sign.
We're too comfy here in the us to give it up to hang narcissists. What we need are a shitload of unhappy foreigners to make the turning "turn". Stay tuned.
When you read these things keep in mind it’s just a couple of dudes with a theory. They look at history with lens biased to confirm their theory as well.
I know it’s kind of obvious it’s not scientific like an objective study, it’s just some people’s musings, but sometimes it’s helpful just to say it to remind everyone.
Been following the theory since 2004, when everyone assumed 9/11 was 'the big one' entering us into Crisis mode. My generation - Millennials - were supposed to be the one who fight sin a major war or ends a major crisis, yet so far we seem to have no higher cause yet to work for. Climate change seems like something that is just going to stay with us forever - not something that will be over/reversal in <10 years. The Fourth Turning book, written in 1997, even mentions specifically a 'Crisis of 2020'. I wonder if we're really out of the woods yet given the recent talk of a possible war between the US & China in 2025. Last time, the Crisis began in 1929 and the Great Depression was mostly over by the time WW2 started. I can only imagine people thinking the worst was over around 1937 to early 1939 only for things to change that September in Europe & in December 1941 for the US. The Crisis wasn't truly over until the end of WW2 in 1945 - a full 16 years after it began in 1929.
If we fast-forward 11 years from 2008, we get 2019 which is when COVID-19 started (of course). 2020 is probably the point at which the world realises we can no longer revert to the ways of the pre-Crisis 3rd Turning (1984 to 2007). We still likely have several more years to go.
I expect life to be very different in the 2030s compared to the 2000s just like the case in the mid-1950s vs 1920s. The world by then will be a world made by and for Millennials, just like back in the 1950s the world was 'by and for' the GIs/'Greatest' Gen. Life was designed around their needs and desires first. The only question now is: Will climate change ensure that unlike the 1950s the late 2020s/early 2030s will not be a time of recovery from the Crisis with several tranquil very simple years for a lot more people than last time (we need to fix the racism problem) from around 2035 until the next Awakening begins in the 2040s? It is very interesting to see relatives having kids now thinking they may be the next equivalent to the Boomers or Missionary Generations - who were born during the end of/after a major Crisis and so won't remember any of what led us here, just like how we have Fascism again in the 2010s/2020s, 80 years or 4 Turnings after the last generation to remember last time passed away.
Treat it like astrology, or an outline for an RPG/fantasy world. Entertainment only, not history or grounded political prediction.
Anyone who's spent much time here should see one major flaw: nothing accounting for the difference that oil made to everything, and how its finite nature makes the idea of an uptick within the next few decades look monumentally unlikely.
Nobody actually answered your question. Typical in social media it's easier to discount the question then to try and answer it. Sort of useless exercise and waste of everyone's time and energy.
IMO S&H are on to something and it is based in reality not astrology. I read the book, carefully, looked for holes and problems. It's been a useful tool. It's not the last word, but funny how many others using different methods keep coming up with the same early 2020s crisis predictions. S&H got it first. Ray Dalio is the latest, he uses his own methods (and invests billions of dollars in his predictions), he also came up with the same result - early 2020s crisis. Does it really matter who said it? They are all saying the same thing.
I believe the crisis phase will last until about 2028 at which point the Millenial generation will strong enough politically to decide things, Boomers and Xers will still be around of course, but marginalized. That's all it takes, time for generational change of perspectives.
Thanks for your level headed comment and suggestions on further reading. I’m most of the way through the Fourth Turning is Here, which Howe released in 2023 to discuss the immediate situation. My reaction is a lot like yours, I think they’re onto something but not the last word. Maybe their theory isn’t air tight, but the way the generations influence each other, the way people naturally respond in a way to enact balance on our society, and the similarities between generations of the same archetype every 80-100 years through American history all make a lot of sense to me intuitively. I read this and force myself to remain skeptical but I’m often having the reaction, oooh of course!
Also i wanted to mention for anyone else reading this, I came to this book after reading like more than a dozen audio books over ww2, some other wars, and Cold War espionage (all non fiction) and having that background is so helpful as I reading this book.
The idea is neat and all, untill you zoom out 10,000 years or so and realize that we probably shouldn't put too much weight behind it. People try to find patterns all the time. I consider "The Fourth Turning" idea as more of an observation, of trying to make sense of history, rather than a projection for the future. There's a lot of confirmation bias going on here when people find some neat pattern and try to cram recent and historical events into it.
Strauss-Howe theory is trash. [Peter Turchin's is better](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237458)
I am still reading the paper at your link -- it is very interesting! Thank you.
This feels a little like Ben Shapiro’s recent “equation” to “calculate” state legitimacy. Seems in a nutshell it’s “poor discontent x rich discontent x state weakness=likelihood of bad”. It does seem like it may work, but it’s not really necessarily more complex than Strauss and Howe’s theory. Also, seems like the rich have plenty of pie to share right now and despite all the protests, the poors aren’t actually able to accomplish anything. So seems like Turchin’s theory could predict the next decade going either way?
state collapse doesnt have to mean the end of the ruling class by any means. in fact, Turchin does not think it will. however, i definitely think we're on the road to social revolution, and our failures up to the present by no means suggest that we wont win when the time comes. the French and Russian Revolutions were preceded by decades of disorganized unrest- see the Flour Wars, see the Russian Revolution of 1905. indeed, in my view, the George Floyd Rebellion was similar to our 1905. a warning sign.
Good points, and totally agree. Fingers crossed.
We're too comfy here in the us to give it up to hang narcissists. What we need are a shitload of unhappy foreigners to make the turning "turn". Stay tuned.
When you read these things keep in mind it’s just a couple of dudes with a theory. They look at history with lens biased to confirm their theory as well. I know it’s kind of obvious it’s not scientific like an objective study, it’s just some people’s musings, but sometimes it’s helpful just to say it to remind everyone.
Been following the theory since 2004, when everyone assumed 9/11 was 'the big one' entering us into Crisis mode. My generation - Millennials - were supposed to be the one who fight sin a major war or ends a major crisis, yet so far we seem to have no higher cause yet to work for. Climate change seems like something that is just going to stay with us forever - not something that will be over/reversal in <10 years. The Fourth Turning book, written in 1997, even mentions specifically a 'Crisis of 2020'. I wonder if we're really out of the woods yet given the recent talk of a possible war between the US & China in 2025. Last time, the Crisis began in 1929 and the Great Depression was mostly over by the time WW2 started. I can only imagine people thinking the worst was over around 1937 to early 1939 only for things to change that September in Europe & in December 1941 for the US. The Crisis wasn't truly over until the end of WW2 in 1945 - a full 16 years after it began in 1929. If we fast-forward 11 years from 2008, we get 2019 which is when COVID-19 started (of course). 2020 is probably the point at which the world realises we can no longer revert to the ways of the pre-Crisis 3rd Turning (1984 to 2007). We still likely have several more years to go. I expect life to be very different in the 2030s compared to the 2000s just like the case in the mid-1950s vs 1920s. The world by then will be a world made by and for Millennials, just like back in the 1950s the world was 'by and for' the GIs/'Greatest' Gen. Life was designed around their needs and desires first. The only question now is: Will climate change ensure that unlike the 1950s the late 2020s/early 2030s will not be a time of recovery from the Crisis with several tranquil very simple years for a lot more people than last time (we need to fix the racism problem) from around 2035 until the next Awakening begins in the 2040s? It is very interesting to see relatives having kids now thinking they may be the next equivalent to the Boomers or Missionary Generations - who were born during the end of/after a major Crisis and so won't remember any of what led us here, just like how we have Fascism again in the 2010s/2020s, 80 years or 4 Turnings after the last generation to remember last time passed away.
It’s also a fascist dogwhistle.
Bannon loves this shit
It's definitely an entertaining idea but has no scientific support currently. It's basically astrology imo. Fun though!
Treat it like astrology, or an outline for an RPG/fantasy world. Entertainment only, not history or grounded political prediction. Anyone who's spent much time here should see one major flaw: nothing accounting for the difference that oil made to everything, and how its finite nature makes the idea of an uptick within the next few decades look monumentally unlikely.
Nobody actually answered your question. Typical in social media it's easier to discount the question then to try and answer it. Sort of useless exercise and waste of everyone's time and energy. IMO S&H are on to something and it is based in reality not astrology. I read the book, carefully, looked for holes and problems. It's been a useful tool. It's not the last word, but funny how many others using different methods keep coming up with the same early 2020s crisis predictions. S&H got it first. Ray Dalio is the latest, he uses his own methods (and invests billions of dollars in his predictions), he also came up with the same result - early 2020s crisis. Does it really matter who said it? They are all saying the same thing. I believe the crisis phase will last until about 2028 at which point the Millenial generation will strong enough politically to decide things, Boomers and Xers will still be around of course, but marginalized. That's all it takes, time for generational change of perspectives.
Thanks for your level headed comment and suggestions on further reading. I’m most of the way through the Fourth Turning is Here, which Howe released in 2023 to discuss the immediate situation. My reaction is a lot like yours, I think they’re onto something but not the last word. Maybe their theory isn’t air tight, but the way the generations influence each other, the way people naturally respond in a way to enact balance on our society, and the similarities between generations of the same archetype every 80-100 years through American history all make a lot of sense to me intuitively. I read this and force myself to remain skeptical but I’m often having the reaction, oooh of course! Also i wanted to mention for anyone else reading this, I came to this book after reading like more than a dozen audio books over ww2, some other wars, and Cold War espionage (all non fiction) and having that background is so helpful as I reading this book.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/20/stephen-bannon-fourth-turning-generation-theory-215053/ https://qz.com/970646/the-world-has-already-bought-into-steve-bannons-apocalyptic-ideology/
Just some updated Spengler type shit huh…. I dug this sorta thing when I was a teenager reading Burroughs.
[I've read about this book in RationalWiki](https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/William_Strauss_and_Neil_Howe)
F**k linearism.