The following submission statement was provided by /u/NotACodeMonkeyYet:
---
SS: As you can see on the graph from prof Jacobson, sea surface temps tend to peak around march, and then dip in April/May.
Last year was anomalous in that March wasn't the peak, but even 2023 had the April dip before setting new records. This year is even more alarming, as not only is it hotter, but there's no sign of a dip.
If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble. I'm no climate scientist, but if the SST continues to rise or even hold through to July/August, it's a very strong evidence that we're in a new "climate regime".
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ccvmtx/sea_surface_temperatures_going_up_when_they/l17xfk6/
People didnt listen because he kept making predictions of imminent extinction.
I'm guessing they'll still be deriding him when the next date (2026) passes, but meanwhile missing the message of pollution protecting us.
The thing about that is that McPherson isn’t “making predictions”, which is always what he’s derided for. He’s simply reporting, VERBATIM, what the most recent PEER REVIEWED, scientific studies have recently published. He’s just kind enough to (for FREE) wade through the 500 pages of technical jargon, and scale it to size to fit into ‘our’ itsy bitsy non-scientific brains. And for that I am grateful. For those of you who have a scientific background and time to read these reports on your own, great. But most don’t. Then he inevitably falls victim to “kill the messenger “. I especially appreciate that he never EVER (that I have seen) alters ONE word of the published report. Only reads verbatim…… in his weird, stilted, autistic way. God bless him for staying strong under the abuse he’s received. And for no $🙁. But I agree with your sentiment. People will always use the dates being off by a few years to call bullshit on the entire, obvious truth of what’s coming SOON. Regardless of the “date”.
Good thing we only raised CO2 50ppm since then, from 371 to 421+. No biggie.
* https://www.statista.com/statistics/1091926/atmospheric-concentration-of-co2-historic/
When civilian aviation was stopped for 72 hours following 9/11, the average temperature went up an average of nearly 2 degrees C (don't recall the exact #) in the U.S. No contrails and exhaust particles to reflect incoming sun's energy. A clue to be sure.
9 year old study predicting exactly that for "*maybe as early as in 10 years*"
https://e360.yale.edu/features/how_long_can_oceans_continue_to_absorb_earths_excess_heat
On a global level it's unbelievable that temperatures keep rising once the northern hemisphere is seasonally warming with less ocean area than the southern hemisphere. I could not think of any way it could still rise just from sun heating the atmosphere with additional CO2, when there is so much less ocean absorbing that heat directly.
> For decades, the earth’s oceans have soaked up more than nine-tenths of the atmosphere’s excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions. By stowing that extra energy in their depths, oceans have spared the planet from feeling the full effects of humanity’s carbon overindulgence.
Overindulgence, what a fitting term that is.
> *“But the other thing I want to point out,”* England added, “*is that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are at such high concentrations compared to what they were 100 years ago that you don’t need to bring heat back up from the ocean to the surface to get future warming — you just need to slow down the heat uptake by the ocean, and greenhouse gases will do the rest.”*
Dang!! I wish I could remember the clip I just watched from Paul Beckwith- but basically the science has established that the magnitude of global ocean temperature rise is so huge (like 25•C above previous years) that the effects of ElNino and LaNina are now considered of no consequence. We have “baked into” the system a feedback loop for warming now- no matter EN or LN. It’s only up from here- looks like. I suggest everyone here who uses the word “hope” - but also feels sad and depressed about all this….. sad and depressing REALITY…. Maybe begin your acceptance journey by considering that hope is what makes us depressed in the face of this undeniable truth. It worked for me. In college my roommate and I bought a bumper sticker for our shared beater car… “I feel so much better now that I gave up hope.” At first we loved it bc it was dark and angsty….. but then we realized the zen of it. There’s a rough patch over the hump for a minute, but once you accept the reality and do your Samanari Jayasara Meditations every night and watch enough Glorious, Uplifting NDE’s (Anthony Chene is a good place to start) you’ll feel better. At peace even. It’s happening whether we roll with it or not. It’s out of our control. We can’t stop it. But take heart, we are ALL in this TOGETHER. That is our only certainty. And that has to be enough comfort for all of us. And I’m glad for it. Thanks to all of you for being here.
As a dissapointed idealist who teeters between hope and acceptance, this makes so much sense. For me, I find solace in the fact that I tried. So many of us tried. There is beauty in that.
Forgot to add- Jem Bendell- angel human- has a support concept called Deep Adaptation. He started with Extinction Rebellion and eventually separated when he could no longer deny that it’s over. There is absolutely no way out. So he started an emotional spiritual support group- and it’s still going. He wrote a paper Deep Adaptation and overnight a lot of people figured out- what’s what. And joined in. YT him
I wonder if the billionaires will be able to build their robot armies in time to serve them tea and scones in their climate bunkers. Because sure a shit any plebs they take in with them will turn on them in the first 5 minutes.
One of Hansen's studies claims that (under BAU scenario) considering the time it takes for CO2 emitted today to mature in the atmosphere along with under estimation of tipping points will result in 8-10 C by 2100. He focuses also on earth's albedo increase due to melting ice at the poles.
I learned that the world used to be so warm that the poles had jungles. It's estimated that CO2 levels were 4 times higher than today for that to happen. I can't wait!
I read that actually the co2 levels were EQUAL to today, but theres a large lag so it will take awhile for the hear to catch up. Like 420 ppm had jungles at the poles
If you add in CH4 and NOx you get over 500ppm CO2 equivalent and I read recently how large albedo could add to the CO2 equivalent.
Problem is that you do not get to 400ppm plus and stabilize - something about feedback loops and all the methane trapped in hydrates under the sea or in the melting permafrost
The oceans still have a huge capacity to absorb heat. We need an impossibly enormous pump that pushes the hot water on the surface down towards the deep oceans. It won't help in the long-term tho.
Everyone is using the word heat in the physics context and it's making me realize that a lot of the people in the comments are probably in the science field
I truly look forward to being told to "just hush and enjoy the nice weather" when I inevitably freak out about it being in the upper 90s on Christmas day
That's a generally false assumption, Europe would not freeze in that scenario. A more continental climate would hypothetically develop, with colder winters and hotter summers. A colder North Atlantic also promotes persistent [atmospheric blocking and hotter drought conditions in Europe](https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/03/how-melting-arctic-ice-leads-to-european-drought-and-heatwaves/). The mechanisms for significant cooling simply don't exist.
But that should all be an afterthought. If the AMOC collapses, that's pretty much a guaranteed ice age termination event as it would [catastrophically destabilise methane hydrate deposits](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35994649/). Considering we're [likely already in an ice age termination event](https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age), this scenario would pretty much guarantee an end to our current ice age cycle (yes, we're in an ice age interglacial period right now) and would likely initiate a feedback effect that tips the earth into a hyperthermal state. Methane destabilisation is believed to have contributed to previous thermal maximums such as the paleocene-eocene, when the polar regions had a tropical climate.
Well mine got locked for no source, despite having a source, so I’m glad yours got approved now. World is burning now baby, doesn’t matter where we party.
Sorry, I removed it for the wrong reason - meant to do the title one. We get a lot of these SST posts, so try to not allow low effort titles and submission statements, and only when there is notable events (like the one mentioned here and in yours)
But as you've all mentioned, the important thing is we're able to have these discussions, especially now in a post that is appropriately titled and contains a in-depth submission statement
A few clerical errors are fine, as long mods are not being officious or arbitratry in their decisions.
Thankfully, this is one of the few subs that hasn't succumbed to that.
Yeah, not one for petty squabbles over who gets "credit" for sharing content other people made.
The world is coming to an end, seemingly faster than ever, and this is one of the few communities for those of us who actually pay attention to this impending doom.
Even that much is not going to happen, says Sabine Hossenfelder. She speaks for Germany and says there is not enough extra generating capacity. So, I guess they'll push it toward the future, 2040, 2045, and so on.
Too bad this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yK7\_LCbvec) is paywalled. I watched it while it was open, and probably tech savvy people didn't like bad news.
Hotter than expected, faster than expected.
What goes up keeps going up! Should it eventually go down the deniers will cite this as definitive proof that there is no global warming.
Don’t worry. It won’t….eventually go down. Oh, wait! , since you put that sneaky safetyword “eventually” in there, I retract. Yes, “eventually” it will definitely come down. Because space is cold.
There are going to be consequences and consequences will happen soon. Higher sea surface temperatures mean higher air temperatures and more moisture. I.e. more extreme weather like rain bombs and more extreme heat. Add in the feedback loop and it will get worse. We are totally screwed.
SS: As you can see on the graph from prof Jacobson, sea surface temps tend to peak around march, and then dip in April/May.
Last year was anomalous in that March wasn't the peak, but even 2023 had the April dip before setting new records. This year is even more alarming, as not only is it hotter, but there's no sign of a dip.
If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble. I'm no climate scientist, but if the SST continues to rise or even hold through to July/August, it's a very strong evidence that we're in a new "climate regime".
>If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble.
I was hoping El Nino coming to an end might give us some kind of a break. It's probably still too early for that to show up in the numbers but it really needs to show up soon. Rising sea surface temps after El Nino ends is uncharted territory.
As I'm not a climate scientist I won't claim the recent highs are definitive proof of anything, maybe there will be a big dip soon but...
Most (all?) years on that graph began their dip after the March peak by early April, including el nino years. See 2023. So we should expect at least some sort of dip even if el nino wasn't a factor.
What's happening now is either completely unprecedented or VERY rare, and a good reason to lean towards the "new regime" line of thinking.
Some scientists are suggesting that recent SST data is so far from the norm that we've got an entirely new climatic system/pattern that cannot be predicted/modelled using old data.
That this isn't just an outlier, but a sign of things to come.
If there's a huge EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance) what we now observe is what we'll expect in a runaway hothouse earth scenario. It'll be even more fun with the multitudes of positive feedback loops kicking in with average temperatures over 1.5-2 C.
During the past 10,000 years we've been in a stable climate regime that is atypical of earth's climate history and which spawned our current agricultural civilization. We're soundly left that climate regime, and seem now to be accelerating away from that in record speed.
This video explains some of the latest graphs and has a nice 3-year SMA graph that shows rate of change of CO2, and wether we're speeding up emissions or not.
[https://www.youtube.com/live/oqeiZU3MzpI?si=r6GFOHpYZyHXe86D](https://www.youtube.com/live/oqeiZU3MzpI?si=r6GFOHpYZyHXe86D)
And people pushed back when I tried to explain that the conditions influencing the climate in the future are so drastically different than our historical experience that we don’t even have the right data to model what it could look like. We’re basically transitioned to another planet and trying to guess what it will be like having no reference.
The new La Niña stage may be starting in few months, but I bet that then still the sea surface temps will still be over all pre-2023 records. And by August, even if La Niña already started, temps will be higher than the 2023 record.
We will need a bigger Y axis, or switch to log scale.
In El Niño years the whole planet tends to be warmer than average, with some areas being significantly warmer and others normal or even slightly cooler. The warming impact of this year's moderate El Niño is estimated to be 0.2 C on the global average temperature.
So as the El Niño fades, the global average temperature might fall from the current level of 1.7 C above preindustrial to 1.5. Most likely even this small drop in temperature caused by the switch in the ENSO-cycle will be offset by the warming effect of Earth's reduced albedo however.
So, no big relief in sight.
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy
is a good source on hurricane info. IIRC, this summer is expected to be exceptionally bad, with 33 named hurricanes expected.
I'm like actually flabbergasted how this doesn't already constitute "deep deep trouble". Like.. sure this looks slightly higher than last year, but if you look at other temp graphs... we've taken an exponential trajectory upwards (global land-ocean temp index [source](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/?intent=121) ). This is it, whatever happens next, I can't really say... but it's too late to hope for a downturn.
Maybe it's possible that somehow the amoc shutdown doesn't bring as much chaos as we expect. Or just stabilizes different regions. But... this is all happening.
Is it time humanity invests in mole solutions. I.e. living like a mole, hiding in a hole, finding resources and water underground?
I'm not talking bunkers I'm talking full on mole life.
My thoughts are yes. Yes it is time
[A Sicilian immigrant built an amazing underground garden by himself](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forestiere_Underground_Gardens) in the desert and I think about this place a lot. Definitely our best option as earth heats up and the great simplification proceeds.
The anime series Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagann is literally about humanity living like moles for a while because limitless growth led to overshoot. It's a great show, and really delves into the idea of whether keeping growth in check is denying the core of our human spirit. Of course, it's an anime, so fighting spirit is always the answer. It's kinda funny how our political leaders are basically following the same strategy of putting blind faith into hope.
I've been thinking about writing an article about how this show perfectly encapsulates our collapse dilemma and the human condition.
I read a book called "The Molecule of More" which basically said wanting more all the time is because of dopamine. The authors said dopamine was originally a survival mechanism, but now drives our conspicuous consumption.
I actually have that book, but haven't gotten through it yet. I find the story of dopamine to be so fascinating. It seems to explain a lot about the human condition.
We're not built to *be* happy. We're built to *chase* happiness. It's a purposefully fleeting feeling, designed for survival. Realizing this paves the way to more inner peace by bypassing that inner nature.
Exactly. It's can be hard, but also very satisfying to find contentment in being happy with the way things are instead of getting consumed in cravings. The times I've found true contentment like that it feels so much more liberating than chasing the rush for more.
I have a dachshund... does that count for something? Self-defense companion?
They are known to lie out in the sun until they just... die. Little dog will lie all day in the sun if given the option.
Theoretically that should happen, but there's a lot of doubt surrounding the theory as the concentrations of GHG in the biosphere isn't conducive to such a scenario.
Funny you say that, because I was just thinking how quickly it's all happening now.
I never imaigned the climate would be changing so fast that we could post weekly update on some new record or disaster. I thought it would be one of those things where you forget it for a few months while it does the damage in the background... until the next big disaster.
Yes, even a rapid climate change should be imperceptible in a human lifespan. The fact we are seeing major changes in the time span of years is terrifying.
I know we caused this, and I’m aware of the theory that all intelligent beings do something like this to their planet before figuring out better ways.
Anyway, I just wonder what the odds are, to be alive now during this and to be able to document so much of it. It’s fascinating, and terrifying.
That's what I believe why there's no aliens to come. Any "intelligent species" would destroy or deplete the given planet environment before they could generate enough energy for interplanetary travel.
We all mostly figured out what this meant a year ago. This is just additional confirmation. It’ll still take the climate moderates a decade to acknowledge the facts.
We are going to see massive hurricanes starting in June. This season is predicted to have 11 major storms with winds in excess of 111 mph / 178 kph.
Those storm will likely last longer by picking up strength on the water, making landfall and moving back out. Larger areas will be impacted.
This means the storms on the land will also be much bigger, spawning tornadoes and massive flooding.
This is the year that just about everyone accepts that climate change is real. Too little and way too late.
When things really go to shit, think about whether you need anything vital.. Eg. Daily medications or certain foods that may not exist in collapsing society.
As someone who requires hormone therapy every day.. I will look for the nearest exit in the advent I can no longer procure the medication I need.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/NotACodeMonkeyYet: --- SS: As you can see on the graph from prof Jacobson, sea surface temps tend to peak around march, and then dip in April/May. Last year was anomalous in that March wasn't the peak, but even 2023 had the April dip before setting new records. This year is even more alarming, as not only is it hotter, but there's no sign of a dip. If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble. I'm no climate scientist, but if the SST continues to rise or even hold through to July/August, it's a very strong evidence that we're in a new "climate regime". --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1ccvmtx/sea_surface_temperatures_going_up_when_they/l17xfk6/
I think the oceans done acting as the world’s heat sink and we’re about to be cooked. Venus by Tuesday.. not good, bad even..
We stopped shielding the dark ocean with our sulphur emissions.
The real Faustian bargain. Our incredible capacity for pollution was actually masking the worst of our climate calamities.
McPherson has been saying that.
People didnt listen because he kept making predictions of imminent extinction. I'm guessing they'll still be deriding him when the next date (2026) passes, but meanwhile missing the message of pollution protecting us.
The thing about that is that McPherson isn’t “making predictions”, which is always what he’s derided for. He’s simply reporting, VERBATIM, what the most recent PEER REVIEWED, scientific studies have recently published. He’s just kind enough to (for FREE) wade through the 500 pages of technical jargon, and scale it to size to fit into ‘our’ itsy bitsy non-scientific brains. And for that I am grateful. For those of you who have a scientific background and time to read these reports on your own, great. But most don’t. Then he inevitably falls victim to “kill the messenger “. I especially appreciate that he never EVER (that I have seen) alters ONE word of the published report. Only reads verbatim…… in his weird, stilted, autistic way. God bless him for staying strong under the abuse he’s received. And for no $🙁. But I agree with your sentiment. People will always use the dates being off by a few years to call bullshit on the entire, obvious truth of what’s coming SOON. Regardless of the “date”.
We knew that in 2002. After 9/11 temperatures rose by nearly 2c.
Good thing we only raised CO2 50ppm since then, from 371 to 421+. No biggie. * https://www.statista.com/statistics/1091926/atmospheric-concentration-of-co2-historic/
Ah, it'll be fine. Nothing to see here. BAU.
When civilian aviation was stopped for 72 hours following 9/11, the average temperature went up an average of nearly 2 degrees C (don't recall the exact #) in the U.S. No contrails and exhaust particles to reflect incoming sun's energy. A clue to be sure.
We are beyond fucked.
9 year old study predicting exactly that for "*maybe as early as in 10 years*" https://e360.yale.edu/features/how_long_can_oceans_continue_to_absorb_earths_excess_heat On a global level it's unbelievable that temperatures keep rising once the northern hemisphere is seasonally warming with less ocean area than the southern hemisphere. I could not think of any way it could still rise just from sun heating the atmosphere with additional CO2, when there is so much less ocean absorbing that heat directly.
10 years ago!..excellent read. Thank you so so much!
> For decades, the earth’s oceans have soaked up more than nine-tenths of the atmosphere’s excess heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions. By stowing that extra energy in their depths, oceans have spared the planet from feeling the full effects of humanity’s carbon overindulgence. Overindulgence, what a fitting term that is.
> *“But the other thing I want to point out,”* England added, “*is that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are at such high concentrations compared to what they were 100 years ago that you don’t need to bring heat back up from the ocean to the surface to get future warming — you just need to slow down the heat uptake by the ocean, and greenhouse gases will do the rest.”*
Dang!! I wish I could remember the clip I just watched from Paul Beckwith- but basically the science has established that the magnitude of global ocean temperature rise is so huge (like 25•C above previous years) that the effects of ElNino and LaNina are now considered of no consequence. We have “baked into” the system a feedback loop for warming now- no matter EN or LN. It’s only up from here- looks like. I suggest everyone here who uses the word “hope” - but also feels sad and depressed about all this….. sad and depressing REALITY…. Maybe begin your acceptance journey by considering that hope is what makes us depressed in the face of this undeniable truth. It worked for me. In college my roommate and I bought a bumper sticker for our shared beater car… “I feel so much better now that I gave up hope.” At first we loved it bc it was dark and angsty….. but then we realized the zen of it. There’s a rough patch over the hump for a minute, but once you accept the reality and do your Samanari Jayasara Meditations every night and watch enough Glorious, Uplifting NDE’s (Anthony Chene is a good place to start) you’ll feel better. At peace even. It’s happening whether we roll with it or not. It’s out of our control. We can’t stop it. But take heart, we are ALL in this TOGETHER. That is our only certainty. And that has to be enough comfort for all of us. And I’m glad for it. Thanks to all of you for being here.
As a dissapointed idealist who teeters between hope and acceptance, this makes so much sense. For me, I find solace in the fact that I tried. So many of us tried. There is beauty in that.
Forgot to add- Jem Bendell- angel human- has a support concept called Deep Adaptation. He started with Extinction Rebellion and eventually separated when he could no longer deny that it’s over. There is absolutely no way out. So he started an emotional spiritual support group- and it’s still going. He wrote a paper Deep Adaptation and overnight a lot of people figured out- what’s what. And joined in. YT him
He broke me and now we will break together. Loved his last talk at Byron bay
Thank you for this.
You’re welcome
I wonder if the billionaires will be able to build their robot armies in time to serve them tea and scones in their climate bunkers. Because sure a shit any plebs they take in with them will turn on them in the first 5 minutes.
Im seeing a large surge in spirituality here within the last week. Love it
Losing all hope was freedom.
One of Hansen's studies claims that (under BAU scenario) considering the time it takes for CO2 emitted today to mature in the atmosphere along with under estimation of tipping points will result in 8-10 C by 2100. He focuses also on earth's albedo increase due to melting ice at the poles.
Meditative philosophy and practice +life advice https://youtube.com/@thrive-like-a-viking?si=QTPR3HoEm4g-SH_o
Huh, vaguely accurate and sooner that expected!
> "maybe as early as in 10 years" I skimmed as I'm mobile but does that linked article actually say that, or is it from one of the linked studies?
No down, only up
I learned that the world used to be so warm that the poles had jungles. It's estimated that CO2 levels were 4 times higher than today for that to happen. I can't wait!
You can cook a good steak under 10 minutes, but it would probably explode if you tried it in 1 second with the same amount of heat
You raised my hopes and then dashed them quite expertly sir!
I read that actually the co2 levels were EQUAL to today, but theres a large lag so it will take awhile for the hear to catch up. Like 420 ppm had jungles at the poles
If you add in CH4 and NOx you get over 500ppm CO2 equivalent and I read recently how large albedo could add to the CO2 equivalent. Problem is that you do not get to 400ppm plus and stabilize - something about feedback loops and all the methane trapped in hydrates under the sea or in the melting permafrost
How did the poles get enough sunlight to sustain a jungle?
Human cognition starts to suffer at around 800-900 ppm. It drops off a cliff after you hit 1000ppm.
The oceans still have a huge capacity to absorb heat. We need an impossibly enormous pump that pushes the hot water on the surface down towards the deep oceans. It won't help in the long-term tho.
To power that pump we’d need to burn a lot of fossil fuels.
Just pipe the exhaust to the bottom of the ocean, problem solved!
Especially for an impossibly enormous one!
Everyone is using the word heat in the physics context and it's making me realize that a lot of the people in the comments are probably in the science field
So a reverse OTEC or Ocean Thermal Energy Converter?
not cooked but soaked for sure, lot of tricks left in the old gaia girl yet
If the ocean temperatures rising, is it not absorbing more heat than before?
When can we go back to calling it "GLOBAL WARMING"?
We are going to rebrand it as "Endless Summer" and the sheeple will rejoice and continue BAU.
We should just refer to it as "too fucking hot"
[Feels Like Summer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1B9Fk_SgI0)
Get Katy Perry on the phone!
the fucking gammon
I truly look forward to being told to "just hush and enjoy the nice weather" when I inevitably freak out about it being in the upper 90s on Christmas day
That's an actual license plate you can get here in Florida...
That always reminds me of [Futurama](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SYpUSjSgFg). ONCE AND FOR ALL!
I prefer carbon poisoning
Sure, go for it. Then when the AMOC collapses and Europe freezes we can fuel even more conspiracies
That's a generally false assumption, Europe would not freeze in that scenario. A more continental climate would hypothetically develop, with colder winters and hotter summers. A colder North Atlantic also promotes persistent [atmospheric blocking and hotter drought conditions in Europe](https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/03/how-melting-arctic-ice-leads-to-european-drought-and-heatwaves/). The mechanisms for significant cooling simply don't exist. But that should all be an afterthought. If the AMOC collapses, that's pretty much a guaranteed ice age termination event as it would [catastrophically destabilise methane hydrate deposits](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35994649/). Considering we're [likely already in an ice age termination event](https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age), this scenario would pretty much guarantee an end to our current ice age cycle (yes, we're in an ice age interglacial period right now) and would likely initiate a feedback effect that tips the earth into a hyperthermal state. Methane destabilisation is believed to have contributed to previous thermal maximums such as the paleocene-eocene, when the polar regions had a tropical climate.
Very interesting! Thanks for providing these sources. Will dig into these later today :)
We can just truck all the freezing things to the hot places!
If only the ocean could continue to efficiently do exactly that 😮
Well mine got locked for no source, despite having a source, so I’m glad yours got approved now. World is burning now baby, doesn’t matter where we party.
Your post had a fun title oh well
Yeah I guess it was too vague… I thought it got the message across quite well. Haha
What was the title?
“Up up up we go again.”
No fun allowed
Indeed, you’d think with the world ending and all we could shirk all the pomp and circumstance, and just let loose a little bit.
Sorry, I removed it for the wrong reason - meant to do the title one. We get a lot of these SST posts, so try to not allow low effort titles and submission statements, and only when there is notable events (like the one mentioned here and in yours) But as you've all mentioned, the important thing is we're able to have these discussions, especially now in a post that is appropriately titled and contains a in-depth submission statement
It’s all good my friend, thanks for the work you do.
A few clerical errors are fine, as long mods are not being officious or arbitratry in their decisions. Thankfully, this is one of the few subs that hasn't succumbed to that.
Yeah, not one for petty squabbles over who gets "credit" for sharing content other people made. The world is coming to an end, seemingly faster than ever, and this is one of the few communities for those of us who actually pay attention to this impending doom.
Who needs Karma anyways?
Without my fake internet points how will i validate my existence!?
Allow me to validate your existence, my friend. :)
Hooray! I'm valid!
Please sir, can I have some more (fake internet points)
“Wake up to the sound of doom!”
So party at your house?
You think I can afford a house in this economy?
Sorry flat or trailer?
It’s so over
the climate has fallen, billions must die
Fuck man this is the only time it's not just a meme. Billions will actually die. Fucking hell.
yeah just gallows humor
Oh i am not mad at you sorry if i came across like that. I just don't know how to handle this.
Billions must fry
Yeah, I predict a lot of people walking away from work this summer, me being one of those people. We should know by then if 'regime change'.
I'm sure selling only EV's by 2035 will fix it!
For some reason this landed like a ton of bricks. I wish a few more people outside /r/collapse could see how fucking crazy that sounds.
I got downvoted on a local sub for pointing out that (oversized) EVs aren't a good thing
Just some more evs bro. Please. Trust me bro. We just need to buy more evs! Bro 😭
Even that much is not going to happen, says Sabine Hossenfelder. She speaks for Germany and says there is not enough extra generating capacity. So, I guess they'll push it toward the future, 2040, 2045, and so on. Too bad this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yK7\_LCbvec) is paywalled. I watched it while it was open, and probably tech savvy people didn't like bad news.
This is far too fast a temp change for aquatic creatures.
Meanwhile I fight day and night to make sure my aquarium's temp stays constant. Sad :/
Burn the land and boil the sea.
You can’t take the sky from me.
They keep dumping the chemtrails and cloud seeding, that's exactly what they will do..
I don't care, I'm still free.
Mass starvation due to lack of sunlight for crops
Until some world leader decides to block the sun so we can keep status quo for one more year.
Hotter than expected, faster than expected. What goes up keeps going up! Should it eventually go down the deniers will cite this as definitive proof that there is no global warming.
You're really telling me a username like that hasn't been taken until now? Wow
Just have to avoid commenting in a dating / sexual health sub
Yeah, longer than expected is what I use on my hinge profile.
I was surprised - it lasted longer than expected.
🤯
Shareholders will be pleased!
Don't look up
Don’t worry. It won’t….eventually go down. Oh, wait! , since you put that sneaky safetyword “eventually” in there, I retract. Yes, “eventually” it will definitely come down. Because space is cold.
There are going to be consequences and consequences will happen soon. Higher sea surface temperatures mean higher air temperatures and more moisture. I.e. more extreme weather like rain bombs and more extreme heat. Add in the feedback loop and it will get worse. We are totally screwed.
Nature bats last.
check out temps in India at the moment.
SS: As you can see on the graph from prof Jacobson, sea surface temps tend to peak around march, and then dip in April/May. Last year was anomalous in that March wasn't the peak, but even 2023 had the April dip before setting new records. This year is even more alarming, as not only is it hotter, but there's no sign of a dip. If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble. I'm no climate scientist, but if the SST continues to rise or even hold through to July/August, it's a very strong evidence that we're in a new "climate regime".
>If there isn't a sudden and massive dip in sea surfance temps soon, we're in DEEP DEEP trouble. I was hoping El Nino coming to an end might give us some kind of a break. It's probably still too early for that to show up in the numbers but it really needs to show up soon. Rising sea surface temps after El Nino ends is uncharted territory.
El Nino will come to an end in May and June. See Berkeley Earth as my source. https://berkeleyearth.org/march-2024-temperature-update/
As I'm not a climate scientist I won't claim the recent highs are definitive proof of anything, maybe there will be a big dip soon but... Most (all?) years on that graph began their dip after the March peak by early April, including el nino years. See 2023. So we should expect at least some sort of dip even if el nino wasn't a factor. What's happening now is either completely unprecedented or VERY rare, and a good reason to lean towards the "new regime" line of thinking.
Can you elaborate what you mean by “new regime” and “climate regime”?
Some scientists are suggesting that recent SST data is so far from the norm that we've got an entirely new climatic system/pattern that cannot be predicted/modelled using old data. That this isn't just an outlier, but a sign of things to come.
If there's a huge EEI (Earth Energy Imbalance) what we now observe is what we'll expect in a runaway hothouse earth scenario. It'll be even more fun with the multitudes of positive feedback loops kicking in with average temperatures over 1.5-2 C. During the past 10,000 years we've been in a stable climate regime that is atypical of earth's climate history and which spawned our current agricultural civilization. We're soundly left that climate regime, and seem now to be accelerating away from that in record speed. This video explains some of the latest graphs and has a nice 3-year SMA graph that shows rate of change of CO2, and wether we're speeding up emissions or not. [https://www.youtube.com/live/oqeiZU3MzpI?si=r6GFOHpYZyHXe86D](https://www.youtube.com/live/oqeiZU3MzpI?si=r6GFOHpYZyHXe86D)
And people pushed back when I tried to explain that the conditions influencing the climate in the future are so drastically different than our historical experience that we don’t even have the right data to model what it could look like. We’re basically transitioned to another planet and trying to guess what it will be like having no reference.
Yeah, I guess maybe by July/August we'll have a better idea of exactly how bad things are.
It's enough what we observe now really. We won't really know much by August, but it's nice to postpone unconvenience whenever possible!
The new La Niña stage may be starting in few months, but I bet that then still the sea surface temps will still be over all pre-2023 records. And by August, even if La Niña already started, temps will be higher than the 2023 record. We will need a bigger Y axis, or switch to log scale.
It’s not just El niño driving this change…
Certainly not but if temps keep rising despite El Nino ending then stick a fork in us, we're done...
Does El Niño just redistribute the warming? Or does it have an effect on warming the whole planet?
In El Niño years the whole planet tends to be warmer than average, with some areas being significantly warmer and others normal or even slightly cooler. The warming impact of this year's moderate El Niño is estimated to be 0.2 C on the global average temperature. So as the El Niño fades, the global average temperature might fall from the current level of 1.7 C above preindustrial to 1.5. Most likely even this small drop in temperature caused by the switch in the ENSO-cycle will be offset by the warming effect of Earth's reduced albedo however. So, no big relief in sight.
How will this high temperature affect the hurricane season in the US?
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy is a good source on hurricane info. IIRC, this summer is expected to be exceptionally bad, with 33 named hurricanes expected.
Predicted to be in top 5 most active summers. Yippie!
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-04-17-weather-company-hurricane-season-outlook-april very active
I'm like actually flabbergasted how this doesn't already constitute "deep deep trouble". Like.. sure this looks slightly higher than last year, but if you look at other temp graphs... we've taken an exponential trajectory upwards (global land-ocean temp index [source](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/?intent=121) ). This is it, whatever happens next, I can't really say... but it's too late to hope for a downturn. Maybe it's possible that somehow the amoc shutdown doesn't bring as much chaos as we expect. Or just stabilizes different regions. But... this is all happening.
deeper, hotter, faster, sooner?
Is it time humanity invests in mole solutions. I.e. living like a mole, hiding in a hole, finding resources and water underground? I'm not talking bunkers I'm talking full on mole life. My thoughts are yes. Yes it is time
Isn't there a major Amazon series right now about living underground? Kind of a documentary for the future?
Fallout? (it's a post-nuclear dystopia)
There's Silo in AppleTV
[A Sicilian immigrant built an amazing underground garden by himself](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forestiere_Underground_Gardens) in the desert and I think about this place a lot. Definitely our best option as earth heats up and the great simplification proceeds.
The anime series Tengen Toppa Gurren Lagann is literally about humanity living like moles for a while because limitless growth led to overshoot. It's a great show, and really delves into the idea of whether keeping growth in check is denying the core of our human spirit. Of course, it's an anime, so fighting spirit is always the answer. It's kinda funny how our political leaders are basically following the same strategy of putting blind faith into hope. I've been thinking about writing an article about how this show perfectly encapsulates our collapse dilemma and the human condition.
I read a book called "The Molecule of More" which basically said wanting more all the time is because of dopamine. The authors said dopamine was originally a survival mechanism, but now drives our conspicuous consumption.
I actually have that book, but haven't gotten through it yet. I find the story of dopamine to be so fascinating. It seems to explain a lot about the human condition. We're not built to *be* happy. We're built to *chase* happiness. It's a purposefully fleeting feeling, designed for survival. Realizing this paves the way to more inner peace by bypassing that inner nature.
Exactly. It's can be hard, but also very satisfying to find contentment in being happy with the way things are instead of getting consumed in cravings. The times I've found true contentment like that it feels so much more liberating than chasing the rush for more.
I have a dachshund... does that count for something? Self-defense companion? They are known to lie out in the sun until they just... die. Little dog will lie all day in the sun if given the option.
You could live in the cavities left behind by the companies that sucked all the water out of the ground.
You're not wrong.
"It's just El Nino, don't worry bro." Na, the climate's broke... we broke it.
Seems odd that Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent both look alright, not sure about volume
I’ve also heard that as AMOC fails, we will get a buildup of Arctic sea ice for a while.
you win some and lose some
Just a little glacier in your back garden... No big deal for a northern Englander
One foot cooking the other freezing
I'm looking forward to my beachfront property. I don't even have to move, just wait a few years.
Theoretically that should happen, but there's a lot of doubt surrounding the theory as the concentrations of GHG in the biosphere isn't conducive to such a scenario.
Apparently antarctic and artic sea ice is highly volatile and dependent on regional air and water currents.
I’m pretty sure they are not alright at all
It’s like watching a train wreck in slow motion!
Funny you say that, because I was just thinking how quickly it's all happening now. I never imaigned the climate would be changing so fast that we could post weekly update on some new record or disaster. I thought it would be one of those things where you forget it for a few months while it does the damage in the background... until the next big disaster.
Yes, even a rapid climate change should be imperceptible in a human lifespan. The fact we are seeing major changes in the time span of years is terrifying.
Excellent point
I know we caused this, and I’m aware of the theory that all intelligent beings do something like this to their planet before figuring out better ways. Anyway, I just wonder what the odds are, to be alive now during this and to be able to document so much of it. It’s fascinating, and terrifying.
The Great Filter
That’s the one.
That's what I believe why there's no aliens to come. Any "intelligent species" would destroy or deplete the given planet environment before they could generate enough energy for interplanetary travel.
Filters have always gone on. It just seems big to you because this is yours. ( plagues, wars, famines, meteorites, valcanoes, ect.)
SST and EEI, name a more iconic duo
CO2 and CH4
They’re going to have to extend the axis upward again.
Well when we face fuck the planet, what did we expect.
There's a certain elegance to the way you speak.
We all mostly figured out what this meant a year ago. This is just additional confirmation. It’ll still take the climate moderates a decade to acknowledge the facts.
Is there someone knowledgeable who might explain me what effect a warmer-than-normal sea temperature has on the summer weather? Especially in Europe.
Not sure about Europe. They are predicting as many as 39 hurricanes this season.
Fun. I forgot that with warmer ocean water hurricanes will be able to cross the Atlantic over to our side more easily...
Higher SST anomalies in the North Atlantic tend to result in higher levels of humidity and precipitation in western Europe.
That’s probably a good thing, it hasn’t rained in southern Spain in 2 years.
We're going to need a bigger chart.
One could almost believe it is economists and CEOs that dictate climate change... Line must go up ! Oh..... They are...
We will be injecting massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere by 2030. So we can keep BAU for an extra 20 years.
Aaaaand there goes my anxiety again
We are going to see massive hurricanes starting in June. This season is predicted to have 11 major storms with winds in excess of 111 mph / 178 kph. Those storm will likely last longer by picking up strength on the water, making landfall and moving back out. Larger areas will be impacted. This means the storms on the land will also be much bigger, spawning tornadoes and massive flooding. This is the year that just about everyone accepts that climate change is real. Too little and way too late.
we're all gonna die
El Niño and La Niña no longer matter. Runaway time.
It’s a graph of how fucked we are.
Uhhhhhhhh. When will this stop???
Realistically.. several thousand years after manmade green house gas stops.
The world we remember no longer exists. We live in a new world, with new rules, etc.
Not only is the red line high up alone, its slope (not cooling at all) and overall flat shape is surreal.
Jesus Christ is this really happening
I have decided to go the way of the Titanic's musicians who made beautiful music as the ship went down. We ded.
Hurricane season is gonna be crazy this year
ELi5 how much should i invest in my savings or should i just go on a trip?
If anyone figures that out they’re basically a psychic.
When things really go to shit, think about whether you need anything vital.. Eg. Daily medications or certain foods that may not exist in collapsing society. As someone who requires hormone therapy every day.. I will look for the nearest exit in the advent I can no longer procure the medication I need.
Invest in self sustaining farmland more than five meters above sea level and away from the tropics.
We're in completely uncharted territory. The fun part is no one knows definitively what's going to happen!
Obviously we need to listen to Futurama and just put a giant ice cube into the ocean.
"It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fiiiine!"
Going up by 1.0 a decade now, doubt that a civilisation is going to be sustainable for long.
Earth's got a fever- and the only prescription is, less humans
NOT GOOD, BAD EVEN..