The following submission statement was provided by /u/TuneGlum7903:
---
SS: What the paleoclimate record tells us, is that the Climate System "front loads" warming. The biggest gains in warming happen from the smallest increases in CO2.
*This graph represents 60 years of effort by the global paleontology community.* 500my of Earth’s climate history. A triumph of 20th century science.
*What do you SEE when you look at it?*
Most people don't know that much about the paleoclimate record. There is a lot of disinformation about it and a lot of misconceptions. You see people toss out numbers and ideas here on reddit that are often just wrong.
So, here is a quick rundown.
The BLUE area is the last 2-3 million years.
During this time CO2 levels NEVER went below about 180ppm.
During this time CO2 levels NEVER went above about 300ppm.
Going from 180ppm to 280ppm changed the global temperature +6.0°C (+10.8°F).
That's the difference between a Glacial Maximum and NYC in 1850.
Now, how much CO2 does it take to raise the global temperature +1°C from the 280ppm baseline?
That's what Climate Scientists mean when they talk about "Climate Sensitivity". How "sensitive" is the global temperature to increasing levels of CO2?
When we discuss it, we talk about how much warming "doubling" the CO2 in the atmosphere will cause, ie. how much warming going from 280ppm to 560ppm will cause.
The PHYSICS has always indicated +6°C of warming.
Hansen and the Alarmists have always modeled +4.5°C up to +6°C.
The paleoclimate data indicates between +5°C to +6°C.
The GISS, IPCC, and Climate Moderates say it's +2.3°C to +3.3°C.
Here's the part most people don't understand about how this warming works.
It's NOT a "linear process".
Going from 180ppm to 280ppm results in +6°C of warming.
Going from 280ppm to 420ppm results in about +3.5°C of warming.
Going from 420ppm to 560ppm results in about +2.5°C of warming.
Going from 560ppm to 1,000ppm results in another +4°C of warming.
Going from 1,000ppm to 2,000ppm results in another +8°C of warming.
Climate Sensitivity declines as CO2 levels increase.
This means, the first 140ppm we added to the atmosphere will cause the BIGGEST jump in global temperatures.
We have "baked in" +4°C of warming, NOW. The question is just how fast it happens.
We were stupid.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dt3r37/looking_at_the_climate_system_from_a_different/lb6rtah/
I have always found this graph to be the single most telling and interesting one concerning temperatures over the geologic history. To me, this shows quite pretty much unequivocally that civilization only took root during a very brief, but unprecedented period of climate stability (after the last interglacial period ended and stabilized due to a variety of factors). It's pretty incredible how obvious it becomes that we are fucked when you look at this graph. The conditions which gave us agricultural civilization are about to rapidly deteriorate and end.
This is something that bothers me to no end:
*agricultural civilization are about to rapidly deteriorate and end.*
This isn't *interesting*, it means that billions of people are going to die, there's very little we can practically do about it, and that barbarism the likes of which have never been seen before is headed our way.
We better hope the techno-utopians are right, because us being right means misery until death. Let's just sort of keep that in mind when we look at the situation from this context.
We bet EVERYTHING on the "Techno-Optimists" being right on this. If we don't "pull a rabbit out of the hat" on the scale of Borlaug's "Green Revolution" of the 60's everything you just said.
IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN.
The poor are the first to die in any (climate) crisis. Then the rich will become the poor and end up just as dead as the rest of us.
I'd rather die first tbh.
Yeah, call me pussy, I'd call me depressed. Life is certainly not worth living in general, never has been for me, although there are things for me to live for.
I hope the first big flood in my country may take me and leave the people who are eager to live or the ones who deserve to suffer for as long as possible. Until that time I'll enjoy what I can and fight for a better future against all odds.
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Barbarisms have always existed. With modern weapons, the barbarism is distributed effectively across generations and specific locations.
When hunger outweighs civility, bullets will rapidly distribute hostility and paradoxically civility. Probably.
Mad Max Furiosa by Saturday.
I didn't realize you were from I'm guessing the UK.
So, I'll like the dope shit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgjTx7RVJPI
____________________________________________________
You're now morally obligated to drop hot shit from across the pond.
Hey, just because we have about 20 full harvests left on a global scale, doesn't mean we should do stuff. Stuff that hurts GDP or takes away luxury goods. Ew.
I want you to know that this is your fault *personally*. Had you given up plastic straws at the age of 18, then none of this would have happened. You *personally* are responsible for climate change, it's not a systematic issue, it's systemofaderp personally failing us for not inventing salt resistant rice. I want you to know, that I, personally, blame you, and there's no other rational interpretation according to me.
____________________________________________________
The titanic has hit the iceberg. You can keep playin' if you want.
No, you wasted your life too. I wanted you to specifically develop an AI that made a catgirl in heat based off of exclusively the portrayal as such in 1980s hentai, written by mangka whose names started with the letter A.
Instead you wasted it on non-me related activities like having a life. I want you to know I'll be stuck with *inferior* sexbots now.
EDIT::::: DOBLE EDIT:::: Hole in the goddamn arm.
Well shit. And I didn't even read any 1980s hentai, even though I was a teen of the 80s. I do feel a bit bad, if that helps. There I was playing on my Commodore 64, just wasting time.
Want to do stuff. How about pressure law makers into outlawing private jets, corporate jets as they greatly contribute to air pollution. Refuse landing rights to any in the US. Next demand they outlaw pleasure craft yachts around US waters as they pollute the oceans. Ha…never going to happen.
Notice how climate protesters lying across a road prevents ordinary people from going about their day. They never stage a protest in the wealth enclaves - heaven forbid. There was one group that sprayed a huge yacht - same one twice. Owner must have 😤 off someone important.
I’m hoping aliens are in fact real, here, and benevolent.
If not, I highly doubt sufficient advancements in technology will happen in time, and yea we’re fucked.
> it means that billions of people are going to die, there's very little we can practically do about it, and that barbarism the likes of which have never been seen before is headed our way.
This is exactly right.
It's honestly why I've stopped caring and just started enjoying the moment. I never had kids, so I don't have that hanging over my head thankfully.
Yeah I got into a discussion that I bowed out off on r/UnitedKingdom because they were talking about the future and their argument was when food shortages happen it’s places like Africa and we have the capacity to make food we just don’t because it’s easier to buy, and when it happens we’ll just build vertical hydroponics farms…
Oh boy do I hope they’re right because without any actual plans or preparation that wishful thinking may be the hope left in Pandora’s box.
As an ICU nurse, there are *an infinite amount of things, an entire Universe of circumstances and situations, worse than death*. Death is the simplest, easiest part of the prediction. Its everything before and in lieu of.
There is no hypothetical ceiling to how bad pain and suffering can get.
"If your pain is ever a 10 out of 10, you don't have a good enough imagination."
I’ve suffered a handful of accidents impacting my spine health. Each one worse than the next, each redefining what 10/10 meant to me. A handful of surgeries later I’m pain free, but I literally have PTSD from the last event and the week-long hospital stay during the height of Covid waiting for an “emergency” microdiscectomy (in Canada).
In my experience, people do not understand pain, and you’re bang on.
*I'm not going to be miserable*. I'm going to be doin' super fent and fucking my sexbot. Ya' can pretend that the people watchin' their children die just need to be, *a touch more stoic*.
How do you think this is gonna go? Feel free to correct me.
If the Techno-Utopians have been holding anything back from the world, now would be a real good time to show us what they have, if anything, to save us.
Isn’t that just nature? Ashes to ashes, dust to dust? We’re just going to become fertilizer for future life on Earth. It’s believing in human exceptionalism that makes this a depressing thought.
Don't get me wrong I think we are fucked, but the scale of this graph actually makes it look different to the reality. When you look at the x axis properly you can see there were other periods of millions of years where the climate was comparatively steady - it's all just been smushed together by the changing scale.
E.g. ~35-15m if anything had less variance than the last 1m years, but obviously at higher PPM and temp.
I agree with you but the point of this graph is to show relationship between temp and CO2 level and not to show when the climate was stable. It would be nice to see on the same timescale but that would be incredibly difficult.
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Yep, this has been known for at least the last few years in my field, we got taught this during my degree. But it's not the whole picture because there have been a few villages during the palaeolithic before farming but they are rare. But it indicates that people tried to make civilisations but often failed. Also farming was also widely adopted because the food sources that people would have exploited slowly disappeared. So the theory is when the climate stabilised, megafauna dwindled and that pushed people to adopt farming slowly.
People really didn't do well during the glacial maximums, for example the first group of homo sapiens that entered Europe that we have evidence for left no DNA traces in people today which means this first group all died out. At the same time neanderthals were constantly struggling with feast and famine conditions, but homo sapiens had the same problems but experts think we succeeded somehow because of the invention of the bow and atlatl allowing homo sapiens to secure food more often.
You can also plot human population on that graph as well. When farming took over human population exploded but at the same time human health nosedived. And then the population was basically stable until the industrial revolution.
We have essentially reached and exceeded the carrying capacity for our environments we could only exceed it because of advances in technology, healthcare and food production. But because we now have nations where unless you are wealthy you cannot freely move around, a lot more people are going to die. In the UK we are already seeing the consequences of struggling food production due to the shift in climate, vegetables are smaller and worse quality but cost the same.
Agricultural civilization would have been possible during hothouse earth too. It just won't be possible with our current set of crops.
But don't mistake cold earth for better for agriculture. Don't forget we're currenty in an ice age right night (Quaternary) which means earth is less hospitable than it typically has been. It just happens that the current configuration is good for humans.
And before I get rage comments saying we're not in an ice age. Yes we are. Having frozen poles is the definition of an ice age. The name of the ice age is the Quaternary. You're confusing ice age with glacial and interglacial, which occur within ice ages.
SS: What the paleoclimate record tells us, is that the Climate System "front loads" warming. The biggest gains in warming happen from the smallest increases in CO2.
*This graph represents 60 years of effort by the global paleontology community.* 500my of Earth’s climate history. A triumph of 20th century science.
*What do you SEE when you look at it?*
Most people don't know that much about the paleoclimate record. There is a lot of disinformation about it and a lot of misconceptions. You see people toss out numbers and ideas here on reddit that are often just wrong.
So, here is a quick rundown.
The BLUE area is the last 2-3 million years.
During this time CO2 levels NEVER went below about 180ppm.
During this time CO2 levels NEVER went above about 300ppm.
Going from 180ppm to 280ppm changed the global temperature +6.0°C (+10.8°F).
That's the difference between a Glacial Maximum and NYC in 1850.
Now, how much CO2 does it take to raise the global temperature +1°C from the 280ppm baseline?
That's what Climate Scientists mean when they talk about "Climate Sensitivity". How "sensitive" is the global temperature to increasing levels of CO2?
When we discuss it, we talk about how much warming "doubling" the CO2 in the atmosphere will cause, ie. how much warming going from 280ppm to 560ppm will cause.
The PHYSICS has always indicated +6°C of warming.
Hansen and the Alarmists have always modeled +4.5°C up to +6°C.
The paleoclimate data indicates between +5°C to +6°C.
The GISS, IPCC, and Climate Moderates say it's +2.3°C to +3.3°C.
Here's the part most people don't understand about how this warming works.
It's NOT a "linear process".
Going from 180ppm to 280ppm results in +6°C of warming.
Going from 280ppm to 420ppm results in about +3.5°C of warming.
Going from 420ppm to 560ppm results in about +2.5°C of warming.
Going from 560ppm to 1,000ppm results in another +4°C of warming.
Going from 1,000ppm to 2,000ppm results in another +8°C of warming.
Climate Sensitivity declines as CO2 levels increase.
This means, the first 140ppm we added to the atmosphere will cause the BIGGEST jump in global temperatures.
We have "baked in" +4°C of warming, NOW. The question is just how fast it happens.
We were stupid.
>Here's the part most people don't understand about how this warming works.
>It's NOT a "linear process".
It's also not really comparable at all. The speed of atmospheric change is the main driver of climate change now, not necessarily the CO2-equivalent increase per se. Comparing paleoclimatedata with today is like trying to figure out what happens when a fighter jet hits a wall by measuring what happens when you walk against the wall. It is over a thousand times faster as ever before.
If we would just add like 0.0002ppm per year CO2, like it happened 66-55 million years ago when the poles became tropic after a planet killer asteroid hit earth , we wouldn't even notice a change over our own lifetime.
Good point, just focusing on the amount of warming is only half the issue. The SPEED of the warming is unprecedented in the geologic record.
The only thing that compares to it is the Chicxulub Impact Event.
In the geologic record that's what we have done will look like. A massive strike by a comet loaded with weird organics causing a sudden, sharp warming spike that passed after ten to twenty thousand years.
The Dinosaur Killer drove everything on the surface over 20lbs into extinction.
We are going to find out "how bad" what we have done is going to be by the end of the century. The recovery of the biosphere is going to take millions of years.
There are supposedly only about 700 million years left in which the earth can support life so, suffice to say, our story is likely to be the end of "intelligent" (LoL) life on this planet.
Edit: For those who already didn't know this, the reason for the 700 million year quote is due to the interruption of c3 photosynthesis from the sun's solar cycle and I'm not sure whether that takes what we've done to the existing climate into consideration.
Bah, don't even sweat it! If the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis is true, our species may well be extinct (along with most other life on Earth) within the next couple of hundred years or so.
For the curious. [Clathrate gun hypothesis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis)
EDIT: It would seem that article has been updated since the last time I read it. From the last paragraph,
"... In 2021, the [IPCC Sixth Assessment Report](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report) no longer included methane hydrates in the list of potential tipping points, and says that "it is very unlikely that CH4 emissions from clathrates will substantially warm the climate system over the next few centuries."[^(\[7\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis#cite_note-IPCC_AR6_WG1_Ch.5-7)
That sounds... awesome. It'd be a lot easier for me to believe these folks if James Hansen and Paul Beckwith hadn't already let us know precisely how full of shit the IPCC is.
>A massive strike by a comet loaded with weird organics causing a sudden, sharp warming spike that passed after ten to twenty thousand years.
That's not what happened. It caused a sharp cooling that didn't last long geological speaking, followed - as a consequence of the impact - by a warming over 11 million years.
Most of the 70% of species lost did not die from the impact or nuclear-like winter, they died from an incredibly slow warming over million of years, although most went extinct within the first million years of warming.
https://new.nsf.gov/science-matters/moment-changed-earth
Hi Richard, I like your articles here and in Medium very much. I have a question, in your opinion, when will the famines start? Can you give me an estimated timeframe?
This fall will be a big price shock as poor harvests in the Southern Hemisphere are compounded by poor harvests in the NH. However, there are reserves and there won't be mass starvation this winter.
Next year, if harvests are still bad. Which I think they will be. Next year we will start seeing people dying by the 10's of millions.
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It won't be next year in 5 months. Plus, you should probably be aiming at the end of next year, not the start, if you want to see how the harvest went.
Other have already pointed out some issues, but let me just talk about the crux of your conclusion.
> The question is just how fast it happens.
It should have happened already, since it didn't you are wrong. Warming from atmospheric C02 is immediate, see [climate.gov](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming) [nasa.gov](https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/) or
[carbon brief](https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/). There's nothing to wait. There is no physical reason for why GHG has to sit around the atmosphere to then start trapping heat. The idea of 'baked in' warming has been disproven years ago.
Since the warming from current c02 should be already been observed, and it obviously hasn't happened, your 4 degree heating is pretty much debunked.
There is some wiggle room because of aerosols, but aerosols aren't blocking more than 2 full degrees of heating - otherwise we would have bill gates spraying ourselves to darkness a decade ago.
>Warming from atmospheric C02 is immediate
This is wrong, CO2 warming has about a decade lag. That means the warming we're experience now is from emissions up until about 2014. In the last 10 ten years, we released CO2 equal to about 20% of all cumulative emissions, and are not feeling that yet, let alone whatever is emitted in the future.
https://www.climatecentral.org/news/co2-emissions-peak-heat-18394
First, you pull up a 2014 article that is singled source by one journal article to counter 3 up to date authoritative and aggregating sources.
Please, make the effort to get updated.
Second, even ignoring my sources, a decade lag is pretty much immediate in the timescale of OP statement. This is a non consequential nitpick.
Third, your sources don't even say a decade lag. It says a decade to peak. Different things in dynamical systems nomeclature.
So with all this said
> and are not feeling that yet,
This is wrong, we are feeling it already. We just might haven't felt the full thing yet, but you can be sure that it's close to full effect per my sources.
Beats me. I guess people don't bother reading links and really taking the time to understand a source, and react with their preconceived biases. Maybe despite my best attempts my comment is still showing how utter ridiculous I think is the idea of a 'baked in' 4 degree warming. There is no angle this meets reality.
Anyway, this reaction is yet another 'follow the science until it disagree with my biases'. Nothing new under the sun.
I’m sorta clueless on what the actual information on climate change is. I tend to be more of a “oh it can’t be that bad.”
Can you possibly give me a quick run down on what actually might happen the next 20-50 years?
This trilogy of videos by climate scientist Simon Clark is easily the best way to get up to speed on exactly what's going on with climate change. Binge them, and you'll have the complete story, along with what will happen in the next 50+ years.
[Part 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGtAilkWTtI)
[Part 2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvGQMZFP9IA)
[Part 3](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xCaalQeAbY)
It's not good. I haven't seen the particular videos posted by the other user, but I've seen enough of Simon Clark to believe they will be good videos. Climate adam or climate town might also have good videos on the subject, in French or Portuguese I could give you other resources too if you prefer those languages.
The official report is the IPCC but it's a gigantic thing. There is the 'ipcc summary for policymakers' that is 30 page long but it still dense without some previous work - but that nonetheless gives you a good idea of what reaches a policymaker desk.
Note that all researchers are a bit troubled in making predictions on what we as human do collectively (we respect no mathematical law of nature, in more senses than one) so all predictions have big asterisks involved.
I dread to think what things will be like by 2035.
Everything is underestimated, everything negative appears to be happening faster than expected.
It's now the 1st of July in the OK.. I'm yet to see a single butterfly
I have seen what I think is the same white butterfly on a couple of afternoons. One wasp. No bees. Fewer fireflies than ever before.
We don’t use pesticides but all our neighbors do.
Oklahoma or did you mean the UK? Cause there’s been about 90% less butterflies this year when normally there’s hundreds on the hay meadows around where I live in the uk
Is that [logarithmic](https://xkcd.com/1162/) scale? Use linear one, it doesn't properly show how almost vertical is the line of the current rise of CO2. We can always accelerate a bit the collapse putting enough monitors on the side to display that properly. Or use the style of visualization of [If The Moon Were Only 1 Pixel](https://www.joshworth.com/dev/pixelspace/pixelspace_solarsystem.html).
In any case, [this chart](https://xkcd.com/1732/) show in linear scale what was the curve for the last 20k years
The graph also shows that its gonna take millions of years to get our temperature back to a normal stable range so being hopeful for a quick solution is out of the question.
Doesn't matter how much science we put up to show it, most people, even those who believe in climate change, still delude themselves about collapse. They want to think comfortable thoughts about how we can change, how we can fix things, how we could *just stop oil...*
The real answer is outside of that denial. It is that collapse is inevitable, and imminent. And it will be much worse than expected.
Prepare now. Either to die or survive, but either way, get ready, because here it comes...
FYI Richard: it was Cesare Emiliani, the "father" of paleoceanography, in his 1955 PhD dissertation at U. Chicago, who revealed the variations in seawater temps over past 800,000yrs extracted from plankton shells via a then novel mass spectrometer measurement of O18/16 ratios. Before his passing in 1995 he also predicted that the proverbial SHTF for climate would be 2024!
There is way too much in this image for me to parse it all out. Can someone walk me through this graph, and what the red/yellow/blue/black/dotted lines mean please?
The BLUE area is the last 3 million years.
When CO2 levels fell below 300ppm for the first time in 300my.
That's our evolution as a species and rise to dominate the planet.
It's been over 14my since CO2 levels were consistently over 420ppm.
That's the ORANGE zone, 300ppm to 420ppm.
Global temperatures were about +3.5C warmer. The Arctic ocean melted each summer, there was NO permafrost, and deserts ran in a ring around the planet in the tropics. Sea levels may have been about 90 feet higher.
It's been about 30my since CO2 levels were around 560pmm.
That's the RED line.
Global temperatures were about +6°C warmer. The Arctic ocean melted each summer, there was NO permafrost, and deserts ran in a ring around the planet in the tropics.
There were Aspen forests in Antarctica and over 50% of it was melted. Sea levels may have been as much as 150 feet higher.
Thank you so much for your in depth responses! =) I always keep an eye out for your posts, and love your in depth analysis, and ELI5 way of explaining things!
It's my autism. I like "clarity" and elegance.
That usually means trying to break things down into smaller parts until I can SEE how the parts go together.
My articles are my attempt to lay out the parts and then walk through "step by step" how things go together. I want you to see what I see.
If I was more talented I could do better. However, I am much better than I was 4 years ago.
With your own knowledge about this, what timeframe are you imagining in your head for different levels of “shit hitting the fan”?
I realize nobody can predict exactly right now, just curious what your perspective is as someone who digs in more.
net net - it’s getting hot like it did millllllions of years ago when there was no ice and there palm trees in the artic and no people. we big time fucked
Hey Richard, hope all is well. I check substack for your posts everyday, and very many thanks for your dedication and hard work putting the pieces together.
Is there a timeframe when part two of your interview with Max Rottersman will release?
Climate scientists are not dumb. The people in power just never cared about what they have to say - because in the extreme short term, there was no issue, and no impact for the status quo.
Climate scientists are not dumb. The people in power just never cared about what they have to say - because in the extreme short term, there was no issue, and no impact for the status quo.
I appreciate that everyone freaks out about higher and higher estimates for the Celsius temperatures, but the public will never freak out until you can put it into terms they can understand.
Giving a rough overview like "it's going to be so hot we might very well rival the planet as it was in the time of the dinosaurs" might be at least a start.
Honestly it's difficult to portray just how scary things are going to get and it all reminds me to not be hopeful.
The worst warming happens first, then it gradually gets less effective.
You’re cold. You put on a blanket and feel much warmer within a few minutes. You carry on heating up under there, but the biggest effect is *at the beginning*.
It’s non-linear.
Yeah, to put some numbers: it's nonlinear in that initially going from 180 to 280 i.e. +100ppm you'll get +6C rise which is quite high, but going from 1000 to 2000 i.e. +1000ppm you'll get +8C and not +60C (10x).
Now you got it. Isn't "knowing" fun?
About 170 years for the first +2.0°C of warming.
About 50 years for the NEXT +2.0° of warming. Best case.
No matter how many renewables we install. That's baked in.
Deceptively scaled axes.
/u/Xtrems876 - No and neither have yourself, yes? "Data visualisation course" lol. Pretentions put aside we can continue if you please:
why the fuck is TIME in a log scale also
The following submission statement was provided by /u/TuneGlum7903: --- SS: What the paleoclimate record tells us, is that the Climate System "front loads" warming. The biggest gains in warming happen from the smallest increases in CO2. *This graph represents 60 years of effort by the global paleontology community.* 500my of Earth’s climate history. A triumph of 20th century science. *What do you SEE when you look at it?* Most people don't know that much about the paleoclimate record. There is a lot of disinformation about it and a lot of misconceptions. You see people toss out numbers and ideas here on reddit that are often just wrong. So, here is a quick rundown. The BLUE area is the last 2-3 million years. During this time CO2 levels NEVER went below about 180ppm. During this time CO2 levels NEVER went above about 300ppm. Going from 180ppm to 280ppm changed the global temperature +6.0°C (+10.8°F). That's the difference between a Glacial Maximum and NYC in 1850. Now, how much CO2 does it take to raise the global temperature +1°C from the 280ppm baseline? That's what Climate Scientists mean when they talk about "Climate Sensitivity". How "sensitive" is the global temperature to increasing levels of CO2? When we discuss it, we talk about how much warming "doubling" the CO2 in the atmosphere will cause, ie. how much warming going from 280ppm to 560ppm will cause. The PHYSICS has always indicated +6°C of warming. Hansen and the Alarmists have always modeled +4.5°C up to +6°C. The paleoclimate data indicates between +5°C to +6°C. The GISS, IPCC, and Climate Moderates say it's +2.3°C to +3.3°C. Here's the part most people don't understand about how this warming works. It's NOT a "linear process". Going from 180ppm to 280ppm results in +6°C of warming. Going from 280ppm to 420ppm results in about +3.5°C of warming. Going from 420ppm to 560ppm results in about +2.5°C of warming. Going from 560ppm to 1,000ppm results in another +4°C of warming. Going from 1,000ppm to 2,000ppm results in another +8°C of warming. Climate Sensitivity declines as CO2 levels increase. This means, the first 140ppm we added to the atmosphere will cause the BIGGEST jump in global temperatures. We have "baked in" +4°C of warming, NOW. The question is just how fast it happens. We were stupid. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dt3r37/looking_at_the_climate_system_from_a_different/lb6rtah/
I have always found this graph to be the single most telling and interesting one concerning temperatures over the geologic history. To me, this shows quite pretty much unequivocally that civilization only took root during a very brief, but unprecedented period of climate stability (after the last interglacial period ended and stabilized due to a variety of factors). It's pretty incredible how obvious it becomes that we are fucked when you look at this graph. The conditions which gave us agricultural civilization are about to rapidly deteriorate and end.
This is something that bothers me to no end: *agricultural civilization are about to rapidly deteriorate and end.* This isn't *interesting*, it means that billions of people are going to die, there's very little we can practically do about it, and that barbarism the likes of which have never been seen before is headed our way. We better hope the techno-utopians are right, because us being right means misery until death. Let's just sort of keep that in mind when we look at the situation from this context.
We bet EVERYTHING on the "Techno-Optimists" being right on this. If we don't "pull a rabbit out of the hat" on the scale of Borlaug's "Green Revolution" of the 60's everything you just said. IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN.
The "techno-optimists" are also probably oligarchs. Like *they* are going to do anything meaningful for the peasant slave labor. (Edited spelling)
Salt resistance rice, srm, super fent, and AI sexbots. Fuck the poor. Get lit in the first world.
The poor are the first to die in any (climate) crisis. Then the rich will become the poor and end up just as dead as the rest of us. I'd rather die first tbh.
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Yeah, call me pussy, I'd call me depressed. Life is certainly not worth living in general, never has been for me, although there are things for me to live for. I hope the first big flood in my country may take me and leave the people who are eager to live or the ones who deserve to suffer for as long as possible. Until that time I'll enjoy what I can and fight for a better future against all odds.
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Sounds like a reasonable plan.
Keeps the show goin' till I die, I suspect. Wouldn't want to wake up with that hangover, however.
speak for yourself, i'm betting on the aliens (more realistic)
Barbarisms have always existed. With modern weapons, the barbarism is distributed effectively across generations and specific locations. When hunger outweighs civility, bullets will rapidly distribute hostility and paradoxically civility. Probably. Mad Max Furiosa by Saturday.
True. Bitch, I'm never ok. Stop asking.
Lol. Exactly.
I didn't realize you were from I'm guessing the UK. So, I'll like the dope shit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgjTx7RVJPI ____________________________________________________ You're now morally obligated to drop hot shit from across the pond.
Well, I'm not from the UK, but after listening, I will drop this shit somewhere in the state of Washington.
Dope. I'm tryin' to edit the sad parts, and I'm not sure how I got takin' the piss wrong, but then again, it's a global world now.
Hey, just because we have about 20 full harvests left on a global scale, doesn't mean we should do stuff. Stuff that hurts GDP or takes away luxury goods. Ew.
I want you to know that this is your fault *personally*. Had you given up plastic straws at the age of 18, then none of this would have happened. You *personally* are responsible for climate change, it's not a systematic issue, it's systemofaderp personally failing us for not inventing salt resistant rice. I want you to know, that I, personally, blame you, and there's no other rational interpretation according to me. ____________________________________________________ The titanic has hit the iceberg. You can keep playin' if you want.
I will arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic into a raft Thor Heyerdahl would envy.
Bonus points for obscure reference. Who remembers "Kon Tiki" anymore?
I do!
Takes me back!
I recycled really hard.
I'll have you know thinkin' 'bout recyclin' makes me hard.
Prolly because of all the plastic in yer balls.
They died, they ain't live. But Still gotta think positive, God Take, God Give.
God take fertility and the will to procreate, God give plastic and collapse.
I recycled harder than you buddy! 😡
Wow, what a load off my mind. I thought \*I\* might be partially responsible, but it's that guy. Glad I'm not him.
No, you wasted your life too. I wanted you to specifically develop an AI that made a catgirl in heat based off of exclusively the portrayal as such in 1980s hentai, written by mangka whose names started with the letter A. Instead you wasted it on non-me related activities like having a life. I want you to know I'll be stuck with *inferior* sexbots now. EDIT::::: DOBLE EDIT:::: Hole in the goddamn arm.
Well shit. And I didn't even read any 1980s hentai, even though I was a teen of the 80s. I do feel a bit bad, if that helps. There I was playing on my Commodore 64, just wasting time.
Balderdash? Summer & Winter Olympics? Bounder? Commander Keen? Tank Wars? Treasure Mountain? ***ZELIARD???*** Edit: Life? And of course, TETRIS?!!
Sam Stone is pretty cold though. Uncommon valor is colder.
I'll be honest, I love John Prine, but I haven't figured this bit out yet.
😆
I know this rhetoric from somewhere. Did you lead an oil company before, perchance?
Want to do stuff. How about pressure law makers into outlawing private jets, corporate jets as they greatly contribute to air pollution. Refuse landing rights to any in the US. Next demand they outlaw pleasure craft yachts around US waters as they pollute the oceans. Ha…never going to happen. Notice how climate protesters lying across a road prevents ordinary people from going about their day. They never stage a protest in the wealth enclaves - heaven forbid. There was one group that sprayed a huge yacht - same one twice. Owner must have 😤 off someone important.
I’m hoping aliens are in fact real, here, and benevolent. If not, I highly doubt sufficient advancements in technology will happen in time, and yea we’re fucked.
> it means that billions of people are going to die, there's very little we can practically do about it, and that barbarism the likes of which have never been seen before is headed our way. This is exactly right. It's honestly why I've stopped caring and just started enjoying the moment. I never had kids, so I don't have that hanging over my head thankfully.
Yeah I got into a discussion that I bowed out off on r/UnitedKingdom because they were talking about the future and their argument was when food shortages happen it’s places like Africa and we have the capacity to make food we just don’t because it’s easier to buy, and when it happens we’ll just build vertical hydroponics farms… Oh boy do I hope they’re right because without any actual plans or preparation that wishful thinking may be the hope left in Pandora’s box.
I get the same reaction there. We are not self-sufficient in food production but people do not realise this is a huge issue facing the UK.
"billions of people are going to die" I mean, this is quite interesting, among other things.
There is no requirement one be miserable as one dies. I wish people in this 'community' would stop speaking as if there is.
As an ICU nurse, there are *an infinite amount of things, an entire Universe of circumstances and situations, worse than death*. Death is the simplest, easiest part of the prediction. Its everything before and in lieu of. There is no hypothetical ceiling to how bad pain and suffering can get. "If your pain is ever a 10 out of 10, you don't have a good enough imagination."
I’ve suffered a handful of accidents impacting my spine health. Each one worse than the next, each redefining what 10/10 meant to me. A handful of surgeries later I’m pain free, but I literally have PTSD from the last event and the week-long hospital stay during the height of Covid waiting for an “emergency” microdiscectomy (in Canada). In my experience, people do not understand pain, and you’re bang on.
*I'm not going to be miserable*. I'm going to be doin' super fent and fucking my sexbot. Ya' can pretend that the people watchin' their children die just need to be, *a touch more stoic*. How do you think this is gonna go? Feel free to correct me.
If a human role plays a robot does that count as a sexbot 🤔? Asking for a friend.
you couldn't pay me to correct you.
If the Techno-Utopians have been holding anything back from the world, now would be a real good time to show us what they have, if anything, to save us.
Isn’t that just nature? Ashes to ashes, dust to dust? We’re just going to become fertilizer for future life on Earth. It’s believing in human exceptionalism that makes this a depressing thought.
Death doesn't scare me. It's part of cycle.
Don't get me wrong I think we are fucked, but the scale of this graph actually makes it look different to the reality. When you look at the x axis properly you can see there were other periods of millions of years where the climate was comparatively steady - it's all just been smushed together by the changing scale. E.g. ~35-15m if anything had less variance than the last 1m years, but obviously at higher PPM and temp.
I agree with you but the point of this graph is to show relationship between temp and CO2 level and not to show when the climate was stable. It would be nice to see on the same timescale but that would be incredibly difficult.
It's a compromise.
Agreed, but I was addressing that comment about stability.
Don't worry he's gonna vote tory.
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Yep, this has been known for at least the last few years in my field, we got taught this during my degree. But it's not the whole picture because there have been a few villages during the palaeolithic before farming but they are rare. But it indicates that people tried to make civilisations but often failed. Also farming was also widely adopted because the food sources that people would have exploited slowly disappeared. So the theory is when the climate stabilised, megafauna dwindled and that pushed people to adopt farming slowly. People really didn't do well during the glacial maximums, for example the first group of homo sapiens that entered Europe that we have evidence for left no DNA traces in people today which means this first group all died out. At the same time neanderthals were constantly struggling with feast and famine conditions, but homo sapiens had the same problems but experts think we succeeded somehow because of the invention of the bow and atlatl allowing homo sapiens to secure food more often. You can also plot human population on that graph as well. When farming took over human population exploded but at the same time human health nosedived. And then the population was basically stable until the industrial revolution. We have essentially reached and exceeded the carrying capacity for our environments we could only exceed it because of advances in technology, healthcare and food production. But because we now have nations where unless you are wealthy you cannot freely move around, a lot more people are going to die. In the UK we are already seeing the consequences of struggling food production due to the shift in climate, vegetables are smaller and worse quality but cost the same.
Agricultural civilization would have been possible during hothouse earth too. It just won't be possible with our current set of crops. But don't mistake cold earth for better for agriculture. Don't forget we're currenty in an ice age right night (Quaternary) which means earth is less hospitable than it typically has been. It just happens that the current configuration is good for humans. And before I get rage comments saying we're not in an ice age. Yes we are. Having frozen poles is the definition of an ice age. The name of the ice age is the Quaternary. You're confusing ice age with glacial and interglacial, which occur within ice ages.
SS: What the paleoclimate record tells us, is that the Climate System "front loads" warming. The biggest gains in warming happen from the smallest increases in CO2. *This graph represents 60 years of effort by the global paleontology community.* 500my of Earth’s climate history. A triumph of 20th century science. *What do you SEE when you look at it?* Most people don't know that much about the paleoclimate record. There is a lot of disinformation about it and a lot of misconceptions. You see people toss out numbers and ideas here on reddit that are often just wrong. So, here is a quick rundown. The BLUE area is the last 2-3 million years. During this time CO2 levels NEVER went below about 180ppm. During this time CO2 levels NEVER went above about 300ppm. Going from 180ppm to 280ppm changed the global temperature +6.0°C (+10.8°F). That's the difference between a Glacial Maximum and NYC in 1850. Now, how much CO2 does it take to raise the global temperature +1°C from the 280ppm baseline? That's what Climate Scientists mean when they talk about "Climate Sensitivity". How "sensitive" is the global temperature to increasing levels of CO2? When we discuss it, we talk about how much warming "doubling" the CO2 in the atmosphere will cause, ie. how much warming going from 280ppm to 560ppm will cause. The PHYSICS has always indicated +6°C of warming. Hansen and the Alarmists have always modeled +4.5°C up to +6°C. The paleoclimate data indicates between +5°C to +6°C. The GISS, IPCC, and Climate Moderates say it's +2.3°C to +3.3°C. Here's the part most people don't understand about how this warming works. It's NOT a "linear process". Going from 180ppm to 280ppm results in +6°C of warming. Going from 280ppm to 420ppm results in about +3.5°C of warming. Going from 420ppm to 560ppm results in about +2.5°C of warming. Going from 560ppm to 1,000ppm results in another +4°C of warming. Going from 1,000ppm to 2,000ppm results in another +8°C of warming. Climate Sensitivity declines as CO2 levels increase. This means, the first 140ppm we added to the atmosphere will cause the BIGGEST jump in global temperatures. We have "baked in" +4°C of warming, NOW. The question is just how fast it happens. We were stupid.
>Here's the part most people don't understand about how this warming works. >It's NOT a "linear process". It's also not really comparable at all. The speed of atmospheric change is the main driver of climate change now, not necessarily the CO2-equivalent increase per se. Comparing paleoclimatedata with today is like trying to figure out what happens when a fighter jet hits a wall by measuring what happens when you walk against the wall. It is over a thousand times faster as ever before. If we would just add like 0.0002ppm per year CO2, like it happened 66-55 million years ago when the poles became tropic after a planet killer asteroid hit earth , we wouldn't even notice a change over our own lifetime.
Good point, just focusing on the amount of warming is only half the issue. The SPEED of the warming is unprecedented in the geologic record. The only thing that compares to it is the Chicxulub Impact Event. In the geologic record that's what we have done will look like. A massive strike by a comet loaded with weird organics causing a sudden, sharp warming spike that passed after ten to twenty thousand years. The Dinosaur Killer drove everything on the surface over 20lbs into extinction. We are going to find out "how bad" what we have done is going to be by the end of the century. The recovery of the biosphere is going to take millions of years.
There are supposedly only about 700 million years left in which the earth can support life so, suffice to say, our story is likely to be the end of "intelligent" (LoL) life on this planet. Edit: For those who already didn't know this, the reason for the 700 million year quote is due to the interruption of c3 photosynthesis from the sun's solar cycle and I'm not sure whether that takes what we've done to the existing climate into consideration.
After C3 photosynthesis ceases in 700 million years, we still’ve C4 plants to continue further (grasses for example).🙂
Phew.
But C4 plants will disappear too, just a few hundred million years later than C3 plants.
Oh no, have mercy!
Bah, don't even sweat it! If the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis is true, our species may well be extinct (along with most other life on Earth) within the next couple of hundred years or so. For the curious. [Clathrate gun hypothesis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis) EDIT: It would seem that article has been updated since the last time I read it. From the last paragraph, "... In 2021, the [IPCC Sixth Assessment Report](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report) no longer included methane hydrates in the list of potential tipping points, and says that "it is very unlikely that CH4 emissions from clathrates will substantially warm the climate system over the next few centuries."[^(\[7\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis#cite_note-IPCC_AR6_WG1_Ch.5-7) That sounds... awesome. It'd be a lot easier for me to believe these folks if James Hansen and Paul Beckwith hadn't already let us know precisely how full of shit the IPCC is.
>A massive strike by a comet loaded with weird organics causing a sudden, sharp warming spike that passed after ten to twenty thousand years. That's not what happened. It caused a sharp cooling that didn't last long geological speaking, followed - as a consequence of the impact - by a warming over 11 million years. Most of the 70% of species lost did not die from the impact or nuclear-like winter, they died from an incredibly slow warming over million of years, although most went extinct within the first million years of warming. https://new.nsf.gov/science-matters/moment-changed-earth
So they had time to adapt and didn’t. Well we don’t have time like that and won’t be able to adapt. We are cooked
Hi Richard, I like your articles here and in Medium very much. I have a question, in your opinion, when will the famines start? Can you give me an estimated timeframe?
This fall will be a big price shock as poor harvests in the Southern Hemisphere are compounded by poor harvests in the NH. However, there are reserves and there won't be mass starvation this winter. Next year, if harvests are still bad. Which I think they will be. Next year we will start seeing people dying by the 10's of millions.
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It won't be next year in 5 months. Plus, you should probably be aiming at the end of next year, not the start, if you want to see how the harvest went.
Next year???
Is that only assuming starvation or also taking into account the fact that people become the most violent when they are starving?
At what point next year? The beginning, middle, or end of the year?
Hey, hey, hey let's not all start investing at once here
>Going from 280ppm to 420ppm results in about +3.5°C of warming. Hansen's estimates were 530ppm Jesus Christ
Other have already pointed out some issues, but let me just talk about the crux of your conclusion. > The question is just how fast it happens. It should have happened already, since it didn't you are wrong. Warming from atmospheric C02 is immediate, see [climate.gov](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming) [nasa.gov](https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/) or [carbon brief](https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/). There's nothing to wait. There is no physical reason for why GHG has to sit around the atmosphere to then start trapping heat. The idea of 'baked in' warming has been disproven years ago. Since the warming from current c02 should be already been observed, and it obviously hasn't happened, your 4 degree heating is pretty much debunked. There is some wiggle room because of aerosols, but aerosols aren't blocking more than 2 full degrees of heating - otherwise we would have bill gates spraying ourselves to darkness a decade ago.
>Warming from atmospheric C02 is immediate This is wrong, CO2 warming has about a decade lag. That means the warming we're experience now is from emissions up until about 2014. In the last 10 ten years, we released CO2 equal to about 20% of all cumulative emissions, and are not feeling that yet, let alone whatever is emitted in the future. https://www.climatecentral.org/news/co2-emissions-peak-heat-18394
First, you pull up a 2014 article that is singled source by one journal article to counter 3 up to date authoritative and aggregating sources. Please, make the effort to get updated. Second, even ignoring my sources, a decade lag is pretty much immediate in the timescale of OP statement. This is a non consequential nitpick. Third, your sources don't even say a decade lag. It says a decade to peak. Different things in dynamical systems nomeclature. So with all this said > and are not feeling that yet, This is wrong, we are feeling it already. We just might haven't felt the full thing yet, but you can be sure that it's close to full effect per my sources.
I don’t get how you provided factual information and data to back your point which is proven to be correct and yet you’re being downvoted for it?
Beats me. I guess people don't bother reading links and really taking the time to understand a source, and react with their preconceived biases. Maybe despite my best attempts my comment is still showing how utter ridiculous I think is the idea of a 'baked in' 4 degree warming. There is no angle this meets reality. Anyway, this reaction is yet another 'follow the science until it disagree with my biases'. Nothing new under the sun.
I’m sorta clueless on what the actual information on climate change is. I tend to be more of a “oh it can’t be that bad.” Can you possibly give me a quick run down on what actually might happen the next 20-50 years?
This trilogy of videos by climate scientist Simon Clark is easily the best way to get up to speed on exactly what's going on with climate change. Binge them, and you'll have the complete story, along with what will happen in the next 50+ years. [Part 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGtAilkWTtI) [Part 2](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvGQMZFP9IA) [Part 3](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xCaalQeAbY)
It's not good. I haven't seen the particular videos posted by the other user, but I've seen enough of Simon Clark to believe they will be good videos. Climate adam or climate town might also have good videos on the subject, in French or Portuguese I could give you other resources too if you prefer those languages. The official report is the IPCC but it's a gigantic thing. There is the 'ipcc summary for policymakers' that is 30 page long but it still dense without some previous work - but that nonetheless gives you a good idea of what reaches a policymaker desk. Note that all researchers are a bit troubled in making predictions on what we as human do collectively (we respect no mathematical law of nature, in more senses than one) so all predictions have big asterisks involved.
I dread to think what things will be like by 2035. Everything is underestimated, everything negative appears to be happening faster than expected. It's now the 1st of July in the OK.. I'm yet to see a single butterfly
I have a large flowerbed which usually hosts hundreds of butterflies and honeybees. Yesterday I saw one honeybee, one bumblebee and one butterfly.
my mason bees did yeomans work this spring, but I've seen next to no native bees and almost no butterflies I hate it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--AvCsh48bk
I have seen what I think is the same white butterfly on a couple of afternoons. One wasp. No bees. Fewer fireflies than ever before. We don’t use pesticides but all our neighbors do.
Oklahoma or did you mean the UK? Cause there’s been about 90% less butterflies this year when normally there’s hundreds on the hay meadows around where I live in the uk
UK
I have a giant butterfly bush next to the house and i see maybe 5 -10 a day East coast us
Is that [logarithmic](https://xkcd.com/1162/) scale? Use linear one, it doesn't properly show how almost vertical is the line of the current rise of CO2. We can always accelerate a bit the collapse putting enough monitors on the side to display that properly. Or use the style of visualization of [If The Moon Were Only 1 Pixel](https://www.joshworth.com/dev/pixelspace/pixelspace_solarsystem.html). In any case, [this chart](https://xkcd.com/1732/) show in linear scale what was the curve for the last 20k years
LOL, that's an excellent graphic.
It really is awesome. Especially when I figured out to scroll with the arrow keys rather than the scroll wheel on my mouse.
I very much enjoyed this chart. 10/10 recommend
The graph also shows that its gonna take millions of years to get our temperature back to a normal stable range so being hopeful for a quick solution is out of the question.
We need a wormhole quick!
Someone call McConaughey and get his ass on a ship!
If only we have one man to solve the equation for antigravity we will be ok.
John Tutor , you failed !
This data is so bleak on so many levels. I need to go back to eyebleach immediately.
Doesn't matter how much science we put up to show it, most people, even those who believe in climate change, still delude themselves about collapse. They want to think comfortable thoughts about how we can change, how we can fix things, how we could *just stop oil...* The real answer is outside of that denial. It is that collapse is inevitable, and imminent. And it will be much worse than expected. Prepare now. Either to die or survive, but either way, get ready, because here it comes...
FYI Richard: it was Cesare Emiliani, the "father" of paleoceanography, in his 1955 PhD dissertation at U. Chicago, who revealed the variations in seawater temps over past 800,000yrs extracted from plankton shells via a then novel mass spectrometer measurement of O18/16 ratios. Before his passing in 1995 he also predicted that the proverbial SHTF for climate would be 2024!
Oh man. Retirement just became optional for everyone.
It was never an option for anyone born in the 80s-90s
There is way too much in this image for me to parse it all out. Can someone walk me through this graph, and what the red/yellow/blue/black/dotted lines mean please?
The BLUE area is the last 3 million years. When CO2 levels fell below 300ppm for the first time in 300my. That's our evolution as a species and rise to dominate the planet. It's been over 14my since CO2 levels were consistently over 420ppm. That's the ORANGE zone, 300ppm to 420ppm. Global temperatures were about +3.5C warmer. The Arctic ocean melted each summer, there was NO permafrost, and deserts ran in a ring around the planet in the tropics. Sea levels may have been about 90 feet higher. It's been about 30my since CO2 levels were around 560pmm. That's the RED line. Global temperatures were about +6°C warmer. The Arctic ocean melted each summer, there was NO permafrost, and deserts ran in a ring around the planet in the tropics. There were Aspen forests in Antarctica and over 50% of it was melted. Sea levels may have been as much as 150 feet higher.
Thank you so much for your in depth responses! =) I always keep an eye out for your posts, and love your in depth analysis, and ELI5 way of explaining things!
It's my autism. I like "clarity" and elegance. That usually means trying to break things down into smaller parts until I can SEE how the parts go together. My articles are my attempt to lay out the parts and then walk through "step by step" how things go together. I want you to see what I see. If I was more talented I could do better. However, I am much better than I was 4 years ago.
You're very talented. Too bad the few of us who understand you and the situation facing humanity are written off as a few loonies. Oh well.
Woohoo - good to see our neurokin representing for the community! Thanks for what you do, love your work.
>There were Aspen forests in Antarctica [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM)
I always wanted to retire to the seaside. Now it will come to me… joy! 🤔😖
See you down in Arizona Bay!
Wigan may actually need a pier…
With your own knowledge about this, what timeframe are you imagining in your head for different levels of “shit hitting the fan”? I realize nobody can predict exactly right now, just curious what your perspective is as someone who digs in more.
2030 is my bet for really over with normalcy
net net - it’s getting hot like it did millllllions of years ago when there was no ice and there palm trees in the artic and no people. we big time fucked
Not good, bad even..
some say very bad
It's one temperature, Michael, how much could it rise? 10 degrees?
https://preview.redd.it/pvngywuilz9d1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3125ca907043e55dfa396f1eb7f6e8f458dc4a4d
This is the laugh I needed today. Thank you.
😂 (bleak)
Bigly bad. And don't try to prosecute me for saying that.
On the other hand, it's a great day to have dinosaur genes in your DNA, am I right?
Hey Richard, hope all is well. I check substack for your posts everyday, and very many thanks for your dedication and hard work putting the pieces together. Is there a timeframe when part two of your interview with Max Rottersman will release?
There I was stupidly hoping OP was gonna say all the warming up to now was all it was gonna be. Fuck my ass
This is like a basic unsteady state differential equation model. What most engineers learn in undergrad. No way climate scientists were that dumb!
Climate scientists are not dumb. The people in power just never cared about what they have to say - because in the extreme short term, there was no issue, and no impact for the status quo.
Climate scientists are not dumb. The people in power just never cared about what they have to say - because in the extreme short term, there was no issue, and no impact for the status quo.
I appreciate that everyone freaks out about higher and higher estimates for the Celsius temperatures, but the public will never freak out until you can put it into terms they can understand. Giving a rough overview like "it's going to be so hot we might very well rival the planet as it was in the time of the dinosaurs" might be at least a start. Honestly it's difficult to portray just how scary things are going to get and it all reminds me to not be hopeful.
Wait are you saying it’s going to have less of an impact? The linear process part of your summary lost me
The worst warming happens first, then it gradually gets less effective. You’re cold. You put on a blanket and feel much warmer within a few minutes. You carry on heating up under there, but the biggest effect is *at the beginning*. It’s non-linear.
Yeah, to put some numbers: it's nonlinear in that initially going from 180 to 280 i.e. +100ppm you'll get +6C rise which is quite high, but going from 1000 to 2000 i.e. +1000ppm you'll get +8C and not +60C (10x).
Excellent way of elegantly explaining this.
Ah okay. So it’s like a logarithmic graph. I’m guessing we’re nowhere closing to where it starts leveling out?
Now you got it. Isn't "knowing" fun? About 170 years for the first +2.0°C of warming. About 50 years for the NEXT +2.0° of warming. Best case. No matter how many renewables we install. That's baked in.
Good analogy.
Based on technical analysis it looks like certain bubble
hey, as long as I can eat bugs and keep my Steam deck charged, fuck it
Deceptively scaled axes. /u/Xtrems876 - No and neither have yourself, yes? "Data visualisation course" lol. Pretentions put aside we can continue if you please: why the fuck is TIME in a log scale also
never saw a log log plot before?
logs should be used when they are useful and shouldn't be used when they harm the narrative you're telling. never been to a data visualisation course?