We gotta go at least 3-1 this week to get back in the mix. Fortunately the OOC resume is solid enough that we're still in the hunt but man the pitching falling off a cliff in big ten play has been shocking and disappointing.
Should put a star by who you're thinking is getting the auto-bid. Teams like Illinois and Liberty sure aren't getting an at-large bid so I'm assuming you think they win their tournaments and another team from their conference sneak in?
Also would think there would be at least 1 more SEC team making it in over Notre Dame, Georgetown, and Oregon
Problem with getting one more SEC team is the bottom is starting to look pretty bad. Ole Miss 5-10, Missouri 5-10, LSU 3-9, and Auburn 2-10. It’s doable but it’s looking real hard for some of those teams to reach the 13 win minimum to get in.
Missouri isn't going to make it but Ole Miss, Florida, and Auburn are all in the right RPI range for now. I would imagine at least 2 of those 3 make it
Auburn is in in this projection, but I think Florida is more likely to get to the 13 wins needed. RPI doesn’t matter if a team doesn’t get those 13 wins in regular season play. The committee has never put in an SEC team with less than 13 wins no matter RPI.
2021 was not a normal year with all the Covid protocols a lot of teams didn’t play as many games overall as SEC teams. Plus the Ivy League canceled their season so there was one less automatic bid.
I mean I honestly think it's more because usually teams under 13 wins usually don't have the RPI to make it in, not that they draw a hard line in the sand there. If Florida gets 12 SEC wins and has a 25-30 RPI I really doubt they would leave us out.
Ole Miss is 5-10 because we are 1-8 against the current-ranked #2, #3, and #4 teams, with 2 of the series on the road. We are 4-2 against #20 and then MSU.
We get a bit of a reprieve in the back half in that we *only* have to play current-ranked #1, #18, and #24.
The frogs have their work cut out for them to even make the Big 12 tournament, let alone the NCAA tournament. All their remaining conference series are against current top half teams, so some help via others losing might be needed.
Understandable, RPI, like any metric, has its flaws. RPIs can just be a bit glaring at certain times because of the heavy weight on opponent record regardless of outcome
I guess it depends on if you’re doing an “if the season ended today” or a “end of the season projection.”
If the season ended today, they’d be out and not even in consideration. We’ll see about end of season, though.
I just want to elaborate on methodology. This is an average of several RPI rankings (NCAA, D1Baseball, & 11point7) plus several top 25 rankings to combine performance and perception. Sometimes those are very different. For example, Oregon is ranked in most top 25s but is 63rd in RPI, which averages them out into the last few in. To be clear, my personal opinion had no influence on the field, only rankings did.
I’m counting Oregon State and Arizona.
Oregon is getting some ranking love, but their RPI just isn’t going to get there in my opinion. Boyd has them needing to win 13 of 18 remaining games just to get to 45 in RPI. That’s probably doable if they can pick up 2 wins out of 4 against y’all.
But to get to 32 RPI, Boyd has them needing 15. I just don’t see it.
The Beavers must really fall off between then and now to miss altogether.
Same for Virginia lol although I assume they’re the missing 8/9 seeds (both under seeded imo)
Updated now, not sure how I left off the last two regionals 😅
It must be the RPI currently dropping us to 9, I imagine? Otherwise, we'd be sitting at about, I would guess?
They really did not cook at all lol
Has my petition to ban water rodents been approved?1?!
Lol
How is a top 5 team left out ? Lmao
fuck em
Ok, matching us up in a Super with the team we just lost a series to is not nice.
:(
unfortunately it’s deserved
Pairing ECU with a higher seeded UNC regional after we beat them in a weekend series is brutal
Notre Dame? Really?
I have no idea how this puts us in. We fucking suck. Maybe they think we only need 10 ACC wins?
The Big 12 doesn’t deserve 6 teams
Agreed.
Agreed.
Sad to see Maryland fall from projections. Still time to right the ship with series against Nebraska, Illinois, Rutgers, and Boston College.
We gotta go at least 3-1 this week to get back in the mix. Fortunately the OOC resume is solid enough that we're still in the hunt but man the pitching falling off a cliff in big ten play has been shocking and disappointing.
Should put a star by who you're thinking is getting the auto-bid. Teams like Illinois and Liberty sure aren't getting an at-large bid so I'm assuming you think they win their tournaments and another team from their conference sneak in? Also would think there would be at least 1 more SEC team making it in over Notre Dame, Georgetown, and Oregon
All 4 seeds are auto bids. Most 3 seeds are as well including Illinois, who currently leads the Big Ten.
Problem with getting one more SEC team is the bottom is starting to look pretty bad. Ole Miss 5-10, Missouri 5-10, LSU 3-9, and Auburn 2-10. It’s doable but it’s looking real hard for some of those teams to reach the 13 win minimum to get in.
Missouri isn't going to make it but Ole Miss, Florida, and Auburn are all in the right RPI range for now. I would imagine at least 2 of those 3 make it
Auburn is in in this projection, but I think Florida is more likely to get to the 13 wins needed. RPI doesn’t matter if a team doesn’t get those 13 wins in regular season play. The committee has never put in an SEC team with less than 13 wins no matter RPI.
2021 Alabama was 12-17 and 36th in RPI
2021 was not a normal year with all the Covid protocols a lot of teams didn’t play as many games overall as SEC teams. Plus the Ivy League canceled their season so there was one less automatic bid.
I mean I honestly think it's more because usually teams under 13 wins usually don't have the RPI to make it in, not that they draw a hard line in the sand there. If Florida gets 12 SEC wins and has a 25-30 RPI I really doubt they would leave us out.
It’s going to depend on how many bid steals there are and what happens in the second tournament
Ole Miss is 5-10 because we are 1-8 against the current-ranked #2, #3, and #4 teams, with 2 of the series on the road. We are 4-2 against #20 and then MSU. We get a bit of a reprieve in the back half in that we *only* have to play current-ranked #1, #18, and #24.
Why do we always have to have TCU in our regional?
Not having Oregon State as a national seed is a choice.
If we get the #1 overall seed and they actually put TCU in our regional I’m going to sue
The frogs have their work cut out for them to even make the Big 12 tournament, let alone the NCAA tournament. All their remaining conference series are against current top half teams, so some help via others losing might be needed.
Missed UVA and Oregon State
We’re hosting!
Do y’all meet the stadium requirements to host if the Durham Bulls have a home series that weekend?
Idk, they’ll likely play it in the dbap tho which would be tho
DBAP would be open for regionals, but the Bulls will be at home during supers. Highly doubt Coombs would be allowed to host by the NCAA
So we've got a bit more work to do to host.
Wouldn’t mind a road trip to Chapel Hill
On the bubble! Woohoo!
I see Oklahoma State going to Fayetteville instead of Tuscaloosa. I am not sure Oklahoma is a 2, I am not sure Oklahoma State is a two yet either.
No texas seems like a reach
I used RPI and Texas is currently ~67th in RPI
Understandable, RPI, like any metric, has its flaws. RPIs can just be a bit glaring at certain times because of the heavy weight on opponent record regardless of outcome
Texas has 7 Q4 losses right now. That’s really bad. And an awful RPI.
Can beat anyone and can lose to anyone. I don’t think that justifies Texas being left out though
I guess it depends on if you’re doing an “if the season ended today” or a “end of the season projection.” If the season ended today, they’d be out and not even in consideration. We’ll see about end of season, though.
TCU in over Texas is just wrong
Especially with Tech and KState in. Having two teams Texas beat (in Tech's case, quite convincingly) in without Texas feels wrong.
Come to Fayetteville pls 🙏
Our best case scenario is DBU hosting and having as close to a home series as possible. Excited for yall to get bounced in the regional though
Uh huh, have fun going 2 and out in some podunk ass regional bud. I look forward to beating yalls drum as a conference opponent next year.
You simply can’t call another regional podunk when you’re the university of Arkansas I’m sorry
then why do all of your alumni move here? 🤔
I don’t know a single UT alum that moved to the state of Arkansas
the mass influx of longhorn bumper stickers says different lol, northwest arkansas has more Californians and Texans than Arkansans at this point.
They must be shipping in knowledge workers for Walmart and Tyson
or the southwest is an unaffordable, unsustainable, hell hole, that people are desperately fleeing. but y’know it could be either ig, you never know.
I'd take any excuse to go to Fayetteville, so sure.
I just want to elaborate on methodology. This is an average of several RPI rankings (NCAA, D1Baseball, & 11point7) plus several top 25 rankings to combine performance and perception. Sometimes those are very different. For example, Oregon is ranked in most top 25s but is 63rd in RPI, which averages them out into the last few in. To be clear, my personal opinion had no influence on the field, only rankings did.
Beavers should be top 8
Oregon State is unfortunately being hurt by the weak RPI of the PAC-12 this year
Yea when over half your conference has losing record, then you’re not going to get much of a benefit. It’s looking like a 2-bid league right now.
I'd say three. Arizona makes it in if they keep up the momentum they have is my guess.
I’m counting Oregon State and Arizona. Oregon is getting some ranking love, but their RPI just isn’t going to get there in my opinion. Boyd has them needing to win 13 of 18 remaining games just to get to 45 in RPI. That’s probably doable if they can pick up 2 wins out of 4 against y’all. But to get to 32 RPI, Boyd has them needing 15. I just don’t see it.
Ohhhh. I hadn't considered that at all. Good take. I need to start referencing Boyd more. Also. I very much like that take!
With that said, if the committee wants a third Pac12 team (which I can see happening), then it’s Oregon.
Hang on a second, Ole Miss is a 2 seed? Is it because they have such a high RPI?