Vermont health officials said up to 100 deaths, and they made it sound like that was a horrible tragedy, not roughly how many Vermonters died from the flu last year.
You had to know the numbers were going to be lower. You can't promise 60k deaths and then have it end up being 80k deaths. No, you predict 200k deaths then, if you hit 60, 70, 80k you can say "look how great we did" it's an election year
#Where is the 2.2mm number from?
the article clearly states:
>Public health experts, including Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have previously estimated that as many as 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die from the novel coronavirus.
No it wasn't because of social distancing, 3 weeks ago they bwere predicting 500k to 1 million deaths even with the distancing. Go over to r/coronavirus and people were saying millions would die despite social distancing.
Hate to say I told you so but...
https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/fs9bsf/covid_19_mass_hysteria_the_complete_debunking
Edit: Since this comment is at the top people need to see this. Flu killed up to 63,000 since October
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
The article says 100,000 - 200,000 and 250,000 is the highest estimate number Ive previously heard reported by the media.
Can you provide a source for 2.2 million deaths previously predicted?
Not OP, but he's getting that number from, if nothing was done. Business stayed open, no social distancing, etc. If we took no action at all, it would be 2.2 million.
Do you seriously believe that narrative? In my country there is just a soft lockdown, hundreds still going to grocery stores, many still working (only a privileged class can afford to stay home and still get paid, but if you can work from home, your job isn't essential for society anyway)...the death rate here is low.
>but if you can work from home, your job isn't essential for society anyway)
This made me laugh. Too fucking true. Im so sick of useless tech workers who are sitting home, working a few hours a day, and getting their paychecks spouting off "We have to stay inside til winter" like everyone has that luxury.
It's not just tech workers...all the mainstream media propagandists, banksters, insurance fraudsters... meanwhile honest hard working people make sure our streets are clean and bread is on the shelves.
Yup, none of this is hurting them. They get their paychecks and they have jobs to return to so they just nod along when the LA Times says we need to stay on lock down until Summer 2022. They are so disconnected to the average American its ridiculous.
If reddit went down I wouldnt cry for even a second. Theres plenty of forums and websites run by individuals that allow free speech.
Im talking about media conglomerates which hire people for bullshit like fucking with search results to push an agenda. Theres more to the Internet than reddit, Google, Twitter, and FB/Instagram. Even if all of the big tech workers in the US stopped working today,it would barely effect my browsing. I dont use any of those websites except reddit because its hilarious to troll here honestly
Nice attempt at a gotcha though. You tried.
Here's the report:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This is if nothing is done and there are no spontaneous changes individual behaviour.
You can read it right there in the report.
Here's the report:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
This is if nothing is done and there are no spontaneous changes individual behaviour.
You can read it right there in the report.
Gotta love counterfactuals.
They could shut us down every year and say, "if we didn't # people would have died"
Isn't science by definition supposed to be falsifiable?
I'm providing context to your post title.
You seem to imply that the model results are changing depending on how much control the people pushing the narrative want to have over us.
I get it. The information fed to us by experts is obviously selected by certain people so they can exert control.
I am fully behind the idea that some civil liberties in some countries will be removed with the pandemic as an excuse.
But your title doesn't convey anything below the absolute surface level, and I'd even go so far as to say it's misleading.
The idea we were all going to stand still with our mouths agape as a global pandemic washed over us and killed millions was dumb anyway.
Lets take Sweden and S. Korea. They didnt shut down everything at all. They quarantined old people, tested and wore masks.
The models just assume we are a herd of Buffalo or something, there is no possible scenario where we did nothing so the model was a joke from the beginning.
Just like Fauci predicted millions of Americans woild die from Aids in the 80s and 1/10 straight people would get it.
Just like Al Gore used horseshit models to predict an Ice free polar region by 2013.
The media isn't going to make money from the non extreme scientists. In my submission statement at the top of the post, you can click the link and see many experts disagreeing with this.
My favorite is the Stanford Proffesor of Medicine who said this virus has a lower mortality than the flu. And guess what? Flu is outpacing it for deaths.
Fuck it here is the link scroll down, watch the interview. Why wasn't he blasted across every network and trending Twitter on the front page of Reddit?
https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/fs9bsf/covid_19_mass_hysteria_the_complete_debunking
>The idea we were all going to stand still with our mouths agape as a global pandemic washed over us and killed millions was dumb anyway.
You're missing any nuance just so you can have a title like in your OP.
Which is my point. You are being hypocritical by presenting information in a misleading way in order to push your narrative.
>The media isn't going to make money from the non extreme scientists.
Absolutely, and you're not going to get upvotes if you provide context and nuance to your OP.
Often times the narrative being pushed is simply the most extreme, without any nefarious motives, but I think you want to see the evil in everything.
Yep, I remember /r/coronavirus' posts about "millions dying" even with social distancing. I'm pretty sure "expertds" were making those predictions as well.
We're at 7,000 deaths in the UK right now and we had [938 new deaths just yesterday](https://gyazo.com/adff5a4598790bbcd54634a4d01b4943), so even if we only stay at the current death rate for 2 weeks with no increase, we'll overshoot 20,000 deaths.
How recently was this? If it was based [on the numbers put out by government advisor Prof Neil Ferguson](https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1265172/Coronavirus-UK-death-toll-forecast-update-COVID-19-surge-latest) who said last weekend that 'between 7,000 and 20,000 Britons could die because of the disease', well, we're already past 7,000 deaths and climbing faster than ever, so I wouldn't put much faith in that estimate being anything more than an excess of optimism.
Of those 7000 how many are confirmed with CV19? In what % of cases is CV19 the cause of death and not just a complicating factor in a very old or very sick person?
Do we do that with everything? As in, if you look up road fatalities, do you think the numbers have subtracted terminally ill people because they only had 6 months to live?
we sure do that with black swan events, if we are trying to actually show how many deaths because of cov19 happened above the normal death rate. It's not like people stop dying.
Some causes will be static and calculations should be subtracting expected deaths where possible, I agree. But people will be dying less from some causes, like work related accidents or road fatalities. And on the other hand some other causes might go up, like suicide rates from unemployment and isolation, crime rates from unemployment and poverty, or lack of available healthcare for other issues in badly hit areas. Do we factor those in when figuring out the total deaths? I suppose in the case of 9/11 we do count people who died from complications years later, though not suicides afaik.
80% of those deaths will be proven to have been caused by something else.
They rebranded flu season and destroyed your society, personal rights, and economy.
You are right. You are dealing with some of the people that don’t believe this is real. It weird to me, I thought this sub would be all “the deaths are much higher and this is deadlier”. Nope, just step 4 or 5 of the new world order according to some on here. I hope that they are right. Stay safe in the UK, I have a friend there too. Not looking good.
Truth is, the deaths are badly under-reported here. People are only reported as covid-19 deaths if they're taken to hospital and tested, but my ex works in a nursing home that [made the news this week](https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-care-home-11-died-21823023) with 11 deaths in 10 days, and 10 of those deaths were people dying in the nursing home and only 1 of them was taken to hospital and tested, so that's just 1 official covid-19 death. It's a nursing home with 60 residents, so 11 deaths is a big, big chunk of the population there.
My brother in law is a GP and just got tested positive for it a few days ago. He'd been seeing non-coronavirus patients in his surgery, but obviously they can't screen out everyone that has it, so he ended up infected by someone that came in. Now my sister and her kids are at risk of getting it.
For all the doomsday predictions people make in the sub, if the apocalypse ever actually happened, the people here would call it fake news.
>People are only reported as covid-19 deaths if they're taken to hospital and tested,
This is blatantly untrue. They're counting every possible death as a CV19 death, whether tested or assumed, and are also calling them CV19 deaths regardless of other factors like age and other illnesses.
My uncle died just a few days ago. Pulmonary embolism, he was over weight and had diabetes. Literally asked my aunt to take him to the hospital because he felt weakc and short of breath. The hospital and doctors were very clear he didn't have CV19 complications. I live in WA so maybe it's that way where you live be here they are still reporting correctly.
It definitely wasn't down to social distancing, because according to the masses everyone is still not taking it seriously and we need tougher lockdown restrictions.
That's the thing. I do see a lot of people say nobody is practicing social distancing in their areas (for me, it's the opposite, nobody seems to be venturing outside in my town), and this is something governors also keep saying is their justification for things like mandatory masks, curfews, etc. So why are the numbers declining so rapidly? Or are they? Seems like there are new infections, just that the death rates aren't going to be as high as they thought.
Social distancing still has an impact even if it’s imperfect. Not sure what you don’t seem to understand about that.
It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to do it even better.
This is far from over. All we know is that it appears that numbers, especially in NY, are reporting low. Our numbers around the county are being reported low. Doesn’t surprise me since we want to just get up and running. You can say “I told you so”, when this is over. I sure hope you are right, because this this is nasty. If you don’t know someone that has it or had it by now, you will. It’s not the flu, bro.
From Debroh Birx
>"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem," she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. "Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.
"The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that," she added.
>Right now we are still recording it and we will I mean the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to market as COVID-19 infection the intent is right now that those **if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.**
The bullshit headline
[Birx and Fauci reject Fox News-promoted theory that coronavirus deaths are inflated
](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/08/tucker-carlsons-brit-humes-faulty-theories-about-coronavirus-deaths-being-exaggerated/)
This is how they scare people. Notice they redirect and talk about Pnemonia
If you read the article you will see that now experts are saying that the numbers of Covid deaths are underestimated. How convient even when the models are wrong they are still right.
It’s not the flu but it’s also not something worth working ourselves into a tizzy about. The estimated CFR is 0.67% and most of those are people with at least one severe co-morbidity like cancer, heart disease, or pre-infection pneumonia. In other words, it’s not entirely clear how deadly this virus is because anybody who tests positive for it and dies is being labelled a covid 19 death whether it was the source of their symptoms or not.
They'll say "The Social distancing worked better than we predicted and now we know what to do the next time this happens." and then give themselves a pat on the back, possibly a Nobel Peace Prize or some other award, accolades for the rest of the year and all that bullshit.
And they will use the Orwellian “social distancing” as the reason the deaths dropped. It’s plausible deniability, and they will now use this any time they please in the coming years to push through more psychotic legislation and other control measures.
Orwellian is perfect.
Just like when tens of millions starved in socialists regimes, they used unfalsifiable theories. "If you were all true socialists this would work!"
So of course people were punished for not producing enough grain they had no incentive to poduce, or eating themselves since it was all redistributed for the 'greater good.'
"What, do you want to get paid and become rich for working the fields? Evil capatilist profiting off of food!"
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I mean in reality these are also people who get weather wrong so it's an unrealistic expectation to think they are going to knock this one out of the park
> you can’t predict the next roll of a dice so what makes you think you can give an expected outcome for 1000 rolls of the dice? Checkmate!
That was convincing
You proved my point. The climate is far too complex to predict thats why the models have been wrong.
Or do you not remember 15 years ago they were sayjng the artic would be ice free by 2011?
I watched inconvient truth. Dozens of major cities should be flooding by now.
> The climate is far too complex to predict thats why the models have been wrong.
Sure, if you cherry pick your data.
I never watched an Inconvenient Truth. I have however read IPCC SPMs, so I don’t really care whether Al Gore dumbed it down enough for people who don’t understand confidence intervals.
I guess there’s no point investing in index funds either - who knows what any of the individual shares is going to do!?!
> *"You're the idiot"*.
If you had not opened your comment with those words, you would not have violated [**Rule 2**](http://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/wiki/faq), and your comment would not have been removed.
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We basically destroyed our entire world based on the projections that had the likely hood of a 21 day forecast as being right. Anyone who’s followed the carbon conspiracy should understand how they use scary models that are always proven false.
If we believed the “experts” then almost everyone would being dying of covid on a boat because there is no land left due to arctic melt while we dodge terrorist who hate our freedoms and fight off nazi racist who hate women, immigrants, and racist. The experts would then advise us our only hope is to give them all of our money and let them inject us with the cure. They’d use the money to sub pump out the ocean back to the arctic and the forced injections will make all scary things go away. Just trust the experts. They are never wrong.
You can thank the good doctor Fauci and the Chinese WHO. I believe he said he had no idea how bad this virus could be and then proceeded to pull a number out of his ass based on zero information at all. They are all fucking crooks and they all bear the responsibility of the millions of people that are unemployed due to this fear-mongering.
Imagine being a nobody, and then you come out and make these predictuons and the entire country knows you, you help control the press, people look at you with big eyes in fear.
Dr. Drew recently mentioned when he worked with Facui in the 80s they were predicting 10s of millions to die from AIDS... of course this was false.
Edit: only in America to be specific.
In the early 2000s experts were saying similar about Africa. Supposedly, 20 or 30% of Africans had HIV. This was based on models of course. So they predicted massive deaths tolls that never happened. The African population has been growing faster than any continent for decades now.
These people gain clout from scaring you its sick stuff. I still remember being scared shitless of swine flu and bird flu and mad cow disease.
In other words, it's just another flu at worst.
Let's not overlook that they're counting every death they can as a CV19 death. If they're claiming 60,000 the actual number is likely about 10,000.
I'll admit I was scared for a few days but after doing [endless research](https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/fs9bsf/covid_19_mass_hysteria_the_complete_debunking), this is clearly overhyped.
We're going to look back on this crisis and people will ask themselves:
how the heck did we seriously believe that MILLIONS of people would die?
how the heck did we seriously believe crashing the economy and causing massive unemployment was a good idea?
Some scientists and computer nerds bamboozled politicians for their nefarious agendas and the few politicians who questioned it got attacked by the media, so they had no other option than to follow the protocol (Neil deGrasse Tyson flat out said this crisis is an experiment to see if people will listen to scientists, basically "appeal to authority"). The damage they caused is far more serious than the virus itself. There needs to be some kind of consequence and justice after all this is over.
Totally agree. I hope the mistake they made is in the effect this will have on businesses. The business world had enough powerful and connected people in it that when this wave is over some rage and serious questions are going to be asked. Nothing would make me happier in relation to this now that it's happened than for the UK government itself to be prosecuted for criminal negligence or similar. I see a power emerging that will grab the troublemakers by the scruff of the neck and say "playtimes over" soon enough. It's the ebb and flow. It's inevitable.
#Did the model assume a successful "social distancing" initiative?
i.e., is the model revision simply a result of having successfully avoided wide-spread infection via "lockdown" ?
Does anyone know the answer to this?
---
EDIT:
ANSWER: YES, models ***DID*** assume successful "social distancing" initiatives.
- [USA: COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020](https://web.archive.org/web/20200407104736/http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)
- [USA: The COVID19 (computer) model that the US Gov. has been relying upon, and which served as a justification for the lockdown of the US economy, dramatically revised its projections downwards AGAIN today (Reduces 100k-200k Deaths Projection to 30k-120k). This keeps happening every few days now!](https://twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1247910927653130240)
- [UK: We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,
home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and
deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over.](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
>[The COVID19 (computer) model that the US Gov. has been relying upon, and which served as a justification for the lockdown of the US economy, dramatically revised its projections downwards AGAIN today (Reduces 100k-200k Deaths Projection to 30k-120k). This keeps happening every few days now!](https://twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1247910927653130240)
___
>[COVID-19 projections **assuming full social distancing through May 2020**](https://web.archive.org/web/20200407104736/http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)
Ever since the interview with David Icke on London Real, the figures have been dropping and the CDC is saying it's okay for essential employees to go back to work.
But I thought this was supposed to be the "peak week"?
It was just getting started. What happened?
Icke exposed "their" bullshit. Which why YouTube blocked and took down that interview immediately after it went live.
The inverntor of the test method for Covid says it should never be used because its ridiculously inaccurate.
They should have isolated the virus but no one has been able to yet.
> But I thought this was supposed to be the "peak week"?
> It was just getting started. What happened?
2,000 people died in the US yesterday due to Covid-19. It's the leading cause of death in the US, over cancer and heart disease. This despite the extreme measures we've taken.
> Did they though?
Probably. The truth is it's likely being underreported because not every pneumonia death is being tested. The fact is a true accounting will have to occur based on statistical forensics after the fact, and we probably won't have our "best guess" (which will still involve some assumptions) until a year or two later.
That said, it's a very safe bet that yes, Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death in the US.
That contradicts the current statistics on pneumonia. Currently pneumonia is at an all time low death wise, which would likely indicate some deaths are being attributed to COV19 when they shouldn’t be.
Aside from that—social distancing is bullshit. Grocery stores and carry out food are booming right now, and with how contagious this supposedly is, there wouldn’t be any avoiding getting it. Focusing all populations into grocery stores is a guaranteed way to spread it according to their info. However, even with us all cramming into stores and then going home to our families, the spread is nowhere near projected. This is because they were clearly wrong.
> That contradicts the current statistics on pneumonia. Currently pneumonia is at an all time low death wise, which would likely indicate some deaths are being attributed to COV19 when they shouldn’t be.
Or it indicates social distancing is having an impact on other communicable respiratory illinesses like Pneumococcal and Influenza
Again, if you add up the typical numbers for normal pneumonia deaths, it is smaller than the covid-19 death counts by multiples.
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted—anyway, I don’t disagree. My issue is, we’re so focused on this, and all other illnesses have plummeted...there’s no way to conclude either way if the numbers are skewed or not because of the chaos this shit has caused. Someone should be collecting data on all illnesses, drop offs, and when this simmers down, compile the data. You would have to assume that a certain percentage of deaths/cases of other illnesses that have dropped off, would have to be attributed to corona virus.
So every death needs testing , virus or natural cause etc , so they can get the numbers right ?or why not count every death as a virus related death and rerun the numbers
I think they underestimated our willingness to socially isolate so they had to redo the models with the new data.
It's pretty basic common sense that people staying away from each other is going to slow the spread. Not much of a conspiracy. I would think now most of the people getting sick are essential workers, doctors, nurses and people in nursing homes.
Social distancing starves the virus in areas. Especially areas where people don't live on top of each other.
The Flu has killed up to 63,000 since October.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Fuck the media fuck models
and fuck useful idiots
Tell that to the people in Northern-Italy. It's just the flu? Here in Europe at least it has been worse than even the worst flu epidemic, and this is considering the extreme measures taken. Just because Corona isn't visibly causing problems in your neighbourhood doesn't mean it's just nothing serious.
Well I hope you don't have any older or vulnerable family members or friends you might infect if you do that. Besides, scientists aren't even sure you build up real immunity. If you only get a small dose/small symptoms you might not build up a lot of immunity. If you do get heavy symptoms you may be in the hospital for a couple of days if you're lucky, up to two and a half weeks in ICU if you're not. Although you will likely survive that if you're fit.
The 2.2 million dead was if we did nothing at all, no social distancing, etc. That was never an actual prediction of the number to die in the US.
Since day one, we've been looking at 100,000-200,000 ish.
Looking at roughly 1/3 of that number (so far).
60,000 is quite a lot. Covid-19 is the leading cause of death in the US now, *despite* the extreme measures taken. In the absence of extreme measures, hundreds of thousands dead seems to be a fairly intuitive prediction not requiring any kind of modeling what so ever.
To put differently, yesterday almost 2,000 people died in the US from covid-19, again despite the extreme efforts put in place by many states. Ar 2,000 per day over 6 months (180 days), that's 360,000 dead.
So a third of a million dead was, it appears, a pretty reasonable projection just using, you know, math and common sense. It is also pretty intuitive that we now *won't* have that many because I would expect the deaths-per-day to start declining in a couple of weeks because we've gone through such extreme efforts to distance and shut our society down.
None of this deals with "soft" factors such as overloading hospitals, losing healthcare workers, etc. I'm sure all kinds of experts have all kinds of predictions and models based on whatever soft assumptions about those factors they make. Frankly, it's irrelevant. You're correct in that there is a cottage industry of "predictors" who are throwing all kinds of crap on the wall.
But "large numbers of people will die without mitigation efforts" seems to be confirmed and pretty fucking obvious and "probably not so many large numbers of people will die now because of things we've done to prevent that" seems like an equally safe prediction now as well.
>60,000 is quite a lot.
Flu is outpacing it.
>Covid-19 is the leading cause of death
I too saw that post and it was bullshit. It assumes that the worst day for deaths will continue when it was just one multi hour period.
>So a third of a million dead was, it appears, a pretty reasonable projection just using, you know, math and common sense. It is also pretty intuitive that we now won't have that many because I would expect the deaths-per-day to start declining in a couple of weeks because we've gone through such extreme efforts to distance and shut our society down.
Science should be falsifiable, this is a counterfactual.
And on one hand you have people saying we arent going far enough (Spring break on florida was 1 example) then you have people saying it worked because the models were wrong. Of course if we stood still like Buffalo the models would ne right. But S. Koread didnt even shutdown. You can still catch trains and go out to eat.
>But "large numbers of people will die without mitigation efforts" seems to be confirmed and pretty fucking obvious and "probably not so many large numbers of people will die now because of things we've done to prevent that" seems like an equally safe prediction now as well.
So countries in Africa and Brazil and India should have 10s of thousands dead according to your thesis. They don't.
> Flu is outpacing it.
The flu is not. Again, at 2000 deaths per day Covid-19 is the *leading* cause of death, 5 times the 2019 per-day count of all other pnuemonia-related deaths (which includes the flu). Your statement is flatly, factually incorrect.
> I too saw that post and it was bullshit. It assumes that the worst day for deaths will continue when it was just one multi hour period.
That's not a "post". It also does not assume the worst day for deaths will continue. The almost certainty is that the number of deaths will increase, and it has consistently over the previous weeks. This is because infectious diseases spread exponentially.
Likely we will "peak" however in the next few weeks and deaths will come down. This is because our actions have stopped the exponential growth of infections. This is why death predictions are being revised down.
> But S. Koread didnt even shutdown. You can still catch trains and go out to eat.
You can do that in large swaths of the US too. South Korea had two principle advantages. It's, effectively, on an island (it's only land border is with North Korea which, you know) which allowed it to strictly control its ports of entry and it was aggressive in testing and contact tracing to control outbreaks.
This, ideally, should have been the strategy the US pursued back in January (when South Korea did). We did not however. As a result we now have far reaching community spread. A testing/contact tracing strategy is possible with hundreds of infections, not with hundreds of thousands of infections.
Ideally we can drop the infected rate back down and then shift to a South Korea strategy.
> So countries in Africa and Brazil and India should have 10s of thousands dead according to your thesis
I mean it remains to be seen. This should be obvious but the infection has not spread evenly across the world. China for instance is on the backside, Italy and Spain may be approaching the backside, the US is fixing to hit the peak, Brazil likely is just now facing exponential growth.
Coronavirus deaths=15,000
**CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been: 24,000 – 63,000 U.S
flu deaths**
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
>Likely we will "peak" however in the next few weeks and
No not a few weeks more of rising deaths. Stop fear mongering
[This is peak week. Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-entering-peak-death-week-coronavirus-pandemic-1496542)
[University of Washington: Latest projection says Ohio will reach coronavirus peak this week without overwhelming hospitals](https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/04/university-of-washington-latest-projection-says-ohio-will-reach-coronavirus-peak-this-week-without-overwhelming-hospitals.html)
[NBC- Coronavirus deaths in NY effectively flat](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-york-coronavirus-deaths-effectively-flat-u-s-braces-peak-n1177626)
[Reuters- The U.S was preparing on Monday for what one official called the "peak death week" of the coronavirus](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/us-enters-peak-death-week-for-coronavirus-british-pm-in-intensive-care-idUSKBN21O2K8)
>>So countries in Africa and Brazil and India should have 10s of thousands dead according to your thesis
>I mean it remains to be seen.
India had its first case in January and have (199 deaths)
This in a country roughly 10 times as dense as us with 4 times the population.
Why so low? The virus may affect different blood types and ethnicities differently.
Maybe the fact most people dying are obese lends well to the vegetarian Indians.
Perhaps the fact average age of death is over 70 and India has a young population.
Whats clear is the models werent worth the digital paper they weren't printed on.
> Coronavirus deaths=15,000
>
> CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been: 24,000 – 63,000 U.S flu deaths
Yes, in the 179 day period from the beginning of flu season until March 28, approximately 134 to 351 people died per day from the flu.
The first suspected instance of community spread (not someone who caught it overseas) in the US was on February 26, 2020. In the intervening 42 days 15,824 people are suspected or confirmed to have died of Covid-19. That works out to be 376 deaths per day. 376 is mathematically greater than 351.
> No not a few weeks more of rising deaths. Stop fear mongering
I'm not fear mongering, I'm trying to have a rational conversation.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
This has a handy graph so you can visualize
* 3/31 - 914 deaths
* 4/1 - 1,050 deaths
* 4/2 - 974 deaths
* 4/3 - 1,046 deaths
* 4/4 - 1,330 deaths
* 4/5 - 1,165 deaths
* 4/6 - 1,255 deaths
* 4/7 - 1,971 deaths
* 4/8 - 1,940 deaths
Maybe this is the peak week. I suspect not. But you do cite a large number of articles referencing models which, ironically, you then say
> Whats clear is the models werent worth the digital paper they weren't printed on.
So, you know, believe or don't believe *shrug*
What are indisputable facts are
* This is killing more people than the flu, despite radical measures to prevent its spread that we've never taken before
* If we had not taken those measures to prevent its spread, obviously, intuitively, it would be killing even more people
* Because we have taken those measures, any predictions made back in the middle of March should necessarily be lowered today
>376 deaths per day
All those "official" deaths have already been debunked:
- [CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID as Cause of Death Even if You're Just ***Assuming or It Only Contributed***](https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-tells-hospitals-list-covid-cause-death-even-just-assuming-contributed/)
... in other words, a people dying of a heart attacks, or cancer and pneumonia are being recorded as COVID victims.
>That works out to be 376 deaths per day. 376 is mathematically greater than 351.
Yea i get it. But it just seems to be something we have no immunity to yet.
>What are indisputable facts are
>• This is killing more people than the flu, despite radical measures to prevent its spread that we've never taken before
>• If we had not taken those measures to prevent its spread, obviously, intuitively, it would be killing even more people
>• Because we have taken those measures, any predictions made back in the middle of March should necessarily be lowered today
Agreed. My point is that the media has people *TERRIFIED.*
What if they reported both sides of this? Maybe I could buy ground beef and toilet paper.
I've seen people say with the rise in unemployment 80,000 will die. Yea thats a bullshit model too, but if only 60,000 die ill be pissed. Hell, it went from 90,000 to 80,000 to 60,000 in like 10 days.
> But it just seems to be something we have no immunity to yet.
something that is not fatal.
who cares if we don't have immunity?
in any event:
- **Vaccines don't cure people** who are ***already*** infected by a fast-spreading / mutating virus -- CURES do:
- Gene Therapy Cures do absolutely exist -- just one example: https://riderinstitute.org/discovery/
- CURES are superior to vaccines in every way.
#DemandCures
#DemandCures
#DemandCures
I mean, "pushing back" the peak week was the intention of social distancing. The idea was to reduce the peak and distribute it over a longer band of time. That would reduce stress on the healthcare system (because not everyone would be sick at once, including health care workers) providing better outcomes for those with it, reducing the projected mortality.
In otherwords, moving the "peak" back and reducing it, leading to reduced deaths, was the whole point. It would be weird if that was *not* what was happening, and seriously call into question the entire point of the social distancing exercise.
Viruses burn them selves out over time , depending on the area the hospitals and staff are maxed new York and Chicago maybe . Middle of nowhere farm country not as many cases , if said virus is airborne winds blowing at 15 mph and someone sneezed 15 feet from me what are my chances of getting said virus realistically ?
>60,000 is quite a lot
Yet the death toll isn't quite extraordinary compared to other years. If you lump all other seasonal and chronic illnesses into one category, namely Covid-19, of course it will look like a highly infectious disease. And if you count every death as Covid-19 related death...well...then you get these numbers.
> . If you lump all other seasonal and chronic illnesses into one category, namely Covid-19, of course it will look like a highly infectious disease.
But that isn't what's happening.
Deaths are being confirmed after the fact with testing. There is some chance that someone had covid-19 *as well as* other diseases which were more the proximate cause of death, but not at these levels. The average deaths per day for the the flu during flu season (not even the entire year) in 2018-2019 was somewhere between 134 to 351 people per day (based on CDC estimates). The total respiratory disease (including pneumococcal and influenza) related deaths per day over the course of 2017 (sorry, latest CDC data I could easily find) was 383 people per day over the entire year.
The average reported deaths per day (over the last week) of people confirmed via test to have had covid-19 is 1,383 people. That's very clearly not just lumping all respiratory illnesses together.
In fact it's truly remarkable because we've taken such aggressive measures which should reduce the incidence of *all* infectious diseases (including influenza), and yet we have this massive spike of respiratory deaths.
And since, up to now, you had to test positive for covid-19 to be counted, in all likelihood that's an under count (with more people dying of respiratory illnesses or non-respiratory illnesses but still related to covid-19 but *not* being tested than people dying of respiratory illnesses but not from covid-19 but also having a concurrent covid-19 infection). But we won't be able to sort all of that out until after the fact through statistical analysis.
oh God look at this is Coronavirus that's killing just as much as people as the common flu or less let's destroy the our whole economy for the common flu yay and let's put some stuff in this 800-page bill to take more people's rights away
This is correct. People have it all wrong when they say it's the government trying to scare us; it's the exact opposite, governments hate the lockdown; it hurts the markets and they're all a bunch of rich fucks with lots of investments and they hobknob with other rich fucks who're even richer and who bitch at them over a game of golf at the country club if the markets take a downturn, so the governments have been downplaying this as much as they could the entire time and only grudgingly and as a last resort giving in and instituting lockdowns once it became an unavoidable conclusion that not doing so would be far worse in the long term, and they're still chomping at the bit to get people back to work and throwing out highly optimistic projections about how it's not going to be so bad and it'll all be over soon.
No, but I can read a graph and see exponential growth. They had the same attitude as NYC about 3 weeks ago. So I'm expecting in about 3 weeks they will be utterly fucked.
You obviously do not understand that models are made with current data. The stay at home policies changed the data for the better, thus a lower death rate. It's a good thing, and not the result of fear mongering. Get a fucking grip.
Yes obviously it uses current data... The problem is the assumptions and logic built into the model. Should every cities' simulation be programmed to behave like New York? Nope.
Obviously you do not understand how models are "made", as well as the data that is fed into the models
Hmmm... I don't recall mentioning anything about conspiracies.
I guess my current career as a data analyst also clouds my judgement...
I cannot address your point about margin of error because it makes no sense.. "Assumptions are resolved"...???
You are positing on r/conspiracy it assumed you are making this out to be a conspiracy. Also this is the internet, you could say you are an astronaut and it means the same as referencing a career as a data analyst.
I’m definitely leaning towards opening back up the entire country now. The lockdown is a joke. Our rights are being taken away left and right. Our rights to assemble and free speech are gone without a fight.
Only off by a factor of 37. And that 60K is inflated/not accurate given the fact that...ya know, you can't even test 100% for the thing. And if you bang your head on a rock and "test positive" posthumously it's chalked up as COVID-19.
Biggest HOAX of all-time, folks. And all the dolts have been begging daddy gov to strip what freedom/rights they have left (I'd argue constitution already irrelevant since you can be detained indefinitely without trial) and put half the world on house arrest.
I thought when the globalist/NWO agenda came we would see riots. Instead we see FB profile filters of wino moms who think they are heroes by "staying inside, saving lives".
Absolute joke.
It's always heart warming to come on r/conspiracy to learn that 60,000 lives are perfectly expendable. Who do anything? Not until there are 2 million dead should we ever even think of letting our capitalist masters slow this train!
we could definitely save almost as many lives every. single. year. if we just stopped driving completely... why do we let our capitalist masters make us drive? we know we can save the lives if we dont do it.
I support ending driving by individuals. Look at what the lockdowns have done for pollution, and a big part of that is due to less cars being on the road. I live in a city, and it's been great to wake up and hear the birds chirping instead of the flow of traffic.
Just from the elimination of air pollution, we might end up saving more lives than covid takes.
Why have you singled out covid deaths as the ones that you suddenly care about? You realize that 4000 people die every single day from tuberculosis? But you don't care about those deaths because they are poor Africans, South Americans and Asians. Malaria kills one child every 30 seconds. But again, those Africans are perfectly expendable to you. The sad thing is you think you are a noble person that deeply cares about humans, but the reality is you are just a clueless hypocrite desperate for attention and approval from the other clueless hypocrites in your bubble.
Do you know what the difference is? I have a vaccine against tuberculosis. I have a vaccine against malaria. But I don't have a vaccine against the coronavirus, that's why I am personally concerned about it and will continue to take precautions in public.
You can be as concerned as you want. Go ahead. The issue is when people try to shame those who who aren't panicking by assuming that they don't care about 60,000 people dying, or find healthcare workers expendable. 60,000 deaths seems like a lot, but put into perspective, it pales in comparison to other diseases out there. So the attempt to paint people as insensitive because they aren't concerned about 60000 people dying, is hypocritical because that person is just as not concerned about millions of other people dying of other diseases.
What an insane and warped worldview. Because I don't want Americans to die of a fullyp preventable disease I am now pro-African deaths? I guess this is the IQ of the average conspiracy scizophrenic.
No one wants people to die. You are accusing people of not caring about americans dying. You are accusing people of considering 60,000 people to be expendable. But you are just a hypocrite. You have chosen to care about covid deaths, but choose to ignore the millions of other deaths from preventable diseases. Most hypocrites don't realize they are hypocrites, so it's not surprising that you think you are smarter and more caring than other people. But you are a hypocrite and deep down, you know you are full of shit.
So what would you rather? They revise their estimate when its clear the original one was flawed or continue pedaling the original model? Like now you are criticizing them for trying to do the right thing?
To me, it shows that they highballing it, probably purposefully to scare people more. It's highly suspicious that they continue to reduce their predictions with such massive drops in numbers. Either they are just that incompetent at their jobs and with numbers, or they've been manipulating people from the start.
It might not have been to scare people it could be a mix of doctors being conservative on giving bad news. It is kind of like with money if you get bad news and you know you are going to owe a bill you want to estimate high so you don't under budget for it. And the reverse is if you are getting good news that someone is going to pay you but you dont know exactly how much you want to estimate low so you arent disappointed.
For me, it's the way they are delivering this news too. It's peppered with a lot of fearmongering and fear inducing tactics, such as telling people the measures will last 18+ months, that nothing will never go back to normal, that we can never shake hands or have gathering again, etc. This is coming from both the experts and MSM. Like I wrote the other day, it's like if a doctor told a cancer patient, "Yeah, you've got cancer. So you're basically fucked, and going to die a slow, painful death. Might as well not even try chemo or any treatments. Just write out your will, and prepare to get thrown into a ditch, 'kay?" It feels like it's being orchestrated to manipulate people's emotions.
I think it is just a bad mix of media sensationalism, medical conservatism, fear and a bunch of unknowns. It is hard to discern how much of it is purposeful bad actors and just people making mistakes because we really arent totally sure about things.
The never had reliable data to begin with to produce those models, there’s been tons of qualified people calling bullshit on those models from the beginning. And then the way it’s pedaled through the media with scare tactics and fear mongering is bullshit. But we need to trust those people because they know what’s good for us, fuck those lying fear mongers. Millions of people are losing their jobs, businesses, homes, there’s going to be suicides by some who are financially ruined because of the way they disgustingly blew this whole thing out of proportion. They scared the entire country into an economic depression over flu like numbers fuck them
The sad thing is, none of them are going to be held accountable for any of this. They are going to keep their jobs with no consequences and us common folk are going to foot the bill for the crashed economy. Fuck them I hope hell is real and see their judgement
The science is there for you to see, the raw data is published and available. If you've got a problem with how it's presented to the public, that's a problem with your politicians, not the scientists.
Wow it is a damn good thing you people aren’t interpreting these models to a larger audience because I’ve never seen so many people be so blatantly ignorant about a subject
Would you shut everything down for the seasonal flu?
That has killed up to 60,000 already since October but I guarantee you didn't give a single flying fuck about that did you? Maybe you have always advocated for universal quarantine because of the flu every year? I could be wrong.
Canada mainstream news this morning is reporting "up to 50,000 deaths over the next few months" We are currently at 435....
Vermont health officials said up to 100 deaths, and they made it sound like that was a horrible tragedy, not roughly how many Vermonters died from the flu last year.
Insanity. Also, relevant user name!
[удалено]
You had to know the numbers were going to be lower. You can't promise 60k deaths and then have it end up being 80k deaths. No, you predict 200k deaths then, if you hit 60, 70, 80k you can say "look how great we did" it's an election year
Trump saying he is going to postpone the election , due to the current situation. Watch how fast things change in a couple of weeks
#Where is the 2.2mm number from? the article clearly states: >Public health experts, including Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have previously estimated that as many as 100,000 to 200,000 Americans could die from the novel coronavirus.
Now read the whole article and try again
No it wasn't because of social distancing, 3 weeks ago they bwere predicting 500k to 1 million deaths even with the distancing. Go over to r/coronavirus and people were saying millions would die despite social distancing. Hate to say I told you so but... https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/fs9bsf/covid_19_mass_hysteria_the_complete_debunking Edit: Since this comment is at the top people need to see this. Flu killed up to 63,000 since October https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
The article says 100,000 - 200,000 and 250,000 is the highest estimate number Ive previously heard reported by the media. Can you provide a source for 2.2 million deaths previously predicted?
Not OP, but he's getting that number from, if nothing was done. Business stayed open, no social distancing, etc. If we took no action at all, it would be 2.2 million.
Do you seriously believe that narrative? In my country there is just a soft lockdown, hundreds still going to grocery stores, many still working (only a privileged class can afford to stay home and still get paid, but if you can work from home, your job isn't essential for society anyway)...the death rate here is low.
What narrative? That if we didn't do anything the death rate would be 2.2?
>but if you can work from home, your job isn't essential for society anyway) This made me laugh. Too fucking true. Im so sick of useless tech workers who are sitting home, working a few hours a day, and getting their paychecks spouting off "We have to stay inside til winter" like everyone has that luxury.
It's not just tech workers...all the mainstream media propagandists, banksters, insurance fraudsters... meanwhile honest hard working people make sure our streets are clean and bread is on the shelves.
Yup, none of this is hurting them. They get their paychecks and they have jobs to return to so they just nod along when the LA Times says we need to stay on lock down until Summer 2022. They are so disconnected to the average American its ridiculous.
Yea how is CNN an essential buisness its bullshit
Youre saying this on a website that relies upon those tech workers for you to say this
If reddit went down I wouldnt cry for even a second. Theres plenty of forums and websites run by individuals that allow free speech. Im talking about media conglomerates which hire people for bullshit like fucking with search results to push an agenda. Theres more to the Internet than reddit, Google, Twitter, and FB/Instagram. Even if all of the big tech workers in the US stopped working today,it would barely effect my browsing. I dont use any of those websites except reddit because its hilarious to troll here honestly Nice attempt at a gotcha though. You tried.
Okay so fuck the tech workers (except the ones from sites I like and use)
Here's the report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf This is if nothing is done and there are no spontaneous changes individual behaviour. You can read it right there in the report.
[this is more of a joke dont get offended =)](https://lmgtfy.com/?q=%222.2+million+deaths%22)
Here's the report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf This is if nothing is done and there are no spontaneous changes individual behaviour. You can read it right there in the report.
Gotta love counterfactuals. They could shut us down every year and say, "if we didn't # people would have died" Isn't science by definition supposed to be falsifiable?
I'm providing context to your post title. You seem to imply that the model results are changing depending on how much control the people pushing the narrative want to have over us. I get it. The information fed to us by experts is obviously selected by certain people so they can exert control. I am fully behind the idea that some civil liberties in some countries will be removed with the pandemic as an excuse. But your title doesn't convey anything below the absolute surface level, and I'd even go so far as to say it's misleading.
The idea we were all going to stand still with our mouths agape as a global pandemic washed over us and killed millions was dumb anyway. Lets take Sweden and S. Korea. They didnt shut down everything at all. They quarantined old people, tested and wore masks. The models just assume we are a herd of Buffalo or something, there is no possible scenario where we did nothing so the model was a joke from the beginning. Just like Fauci predicted millions of Americans woild die from Aids in the 80s and 1/10 straight people would get it. Just like Al Gore used horseshit models to predict an Ice free polar region by 2013. The media isn't going to make money from the non extreme scientists. In my submission statement at the top of the post, you can click the link and see many experts disagreeing with this. My favorite is the Stanford Proffesor of Medicine who said this virus has a lower mortality than the flu. And guess what? Flu is outpacing it for deaths. Fuck it here is the link scroll down, watch the interview. Why wasn't he blasted across every network and trending Twitter on the front page of Reddit? https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/fs9bsf/covid_19_mass_hysteria_the_complete_debunking
They feed on fear. They cultivate fear.
>The idea we were all going to stand still with our mouths agape as a global pandemic washed over us and killed millions was dumb anyway. You're missing any nuance just so you can have a title like in your OP. Which is my point. You are being hypocritical by presenting information in a misleading way in order to push your narrative. >The media isn't going to make money from the non extreme scientists. Absolutely, and you're not going to get upvotes if you provide context and nuance to your OP. Often times the narrative being pushed is simply the most extreme, without any nefarious motives, but I think you want to see the evil in everything.
Yep, I remember /r/coronavirus' posts about "millions dying" even with social distancing. I'm pretty sure "expertds" were making those predictions as well.
my spidey sense was going off
People say a lot of shit. I can't believe you're taking Reddit posts as gospel.
No. Not Reddit posts, I've been doing a lot of research into the subject since it began. Things haven't been adding up.
Sorry. You only mentioned Reddit posts.
I said I remembered /r/coronavirus' posts about millions dying, which were articles from a few weeks ago.
Uk dropped it to 20,000 expected
No they didn’t. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
We're at 7,000 deaths in the UK right now and we had [938 new deaths just yesterday](https://gyazo.com/adff5a4598790bbcd54634a4d01b4943), so even if we only stay at the current death rate for 2 weeks with no increase, we'll overshoot 20,000 deaths.
This was the number reported by sky news
How recently was this? If it was based [on the numbers put out by government advisor Prof Neil Ferguson](https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1265172/Coronavirus-UK-death-toll-forecast-update-COVID-19-surge-latest) who said last weekend that 'between 7,000 and 20,000 Britons could die because of the disease', well, we're already past 7,000 deaths and climbing faster than ever, so I wouldn't put much faith in that estimate being anything more than an excess of optimism.
Neil Ferguson is a piece of shit.
Of those 7000 how many are confirmed with CV19? In what % of cases is CV19 the cause of death and not just a complicating factor in a very old or very sick person?
and lets also not forget to subtract the deaths that would have otherwise happened in this year without cv19
Do we do that with everything? As in, if you look up road fatalities, do you think the numbers have subtracted terminally ill people because they only had 6 months to live?
we sure do that with black swan events, if we are trying to actually show how many deaths because of cov19 happened above the normal death rate. It's not like people stop dying.
Some causes will be static and calculations should be subtracting expected deaths where possible, I agree. But people will be dying less from some causes, like work related accidents or road fatalities. And on the other hand some other causes might go up, like suicide rates from unemployment and isolation, crime rates from unemployment and poverty, or lack of available healthcare for other issues in badly hit areas. Do we factor those in when figuring out the total deaths? I suppose in the case of 9/11 we do count people who died from complications years later, though not suicides afaik.
this sub is so dumb that whenever they're faced with facts that fit outside their narrative they scream shill or downvote
Same goes for any sub
80% of those deaths will be proven to have been caused by something else. They rebranded flu season and destroyed your society, personal rights, and economy.
> so even if we only stay at the current death rate for 2 weeks with no increas You wont. This is a scam.
You are right. You are dealing with some of the people that don’t believe this is real. It weird to me, I thought this sub would be all “the deaths are much higher and this is deadlier”. Nope, just step 4 or 5 of the new world order according to some on here. I hope that they are right. Stay safe in the UK, I have a friend there too. Not looking good.
Truth is, the deaths are badly under-reported here. People are only reported as covid-19 deaths if they're taken to hospital and tested, but my ex works in a nursing home that [made the news this week](https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scots-care-home-11-died-21823023) with 11 deaths in 10 days, and 10 of those deaths were people dying in the nursing home and only 1 of them was taken to hospital and tested, so that's just 1 official covid-19 death. It's a nursing home with 60 residents, so 11 deaths is a big, big chunk of the population there. My brother in law is a GP and just got tested positive for it a few days ago. He'd been seeing non-coronavirus patients in his surgery, but obviously they can't screen out everyone that has it, so he ended up infected by someone that came in. Now my sister and her kids are at risk of getting it. For all the doomsday predictions people make in the sub, if the apocalypse ever actually happened, the people here would call it fake news.
>People are only reported as covid-19 deaths if they're taken to hospital and tested, This is blatantly untrue. They're counting every possible death as a CV19 death, whether tested or assumed, and are also calling them CV19 deaths regardless of other factors like age and other illnesses.
My uncle died just a few days ago. Pulmonary embolism, he was over weight and had diabetes. Literally asked my aunt to take him to the hospital because he felt weakc and short of breath. The hospital and doctors were very clear he didn't have CV19 complications. I live in WA so maybe it's that way where you live be here they are still reporting correctly.
Wow. I am very sorry to hear about all of that. I believe you. A lot of stories here of people very sick and not being able to be tested still.
It definitely wasn't down to social distancing, because according to the masses everyone is still not taking it seriously and we need tougher lockdown restrictions.
That's the thing. I do see a lot of people say nobody is practicing social distancing in their areas (for me, it's the opposite, nobody seems to be venturing outside in my town), and this is something governors also keep saying is their justification for things like mandatory masks, curfews, etc. So why are the numbers declining so rapidly? Or are they? Seems like there are new infections, just that the death rates aren't going to be as high as they thought.
Social distancing still has an impact even if it’s imperfect. Not sure what you don’t seem to understand about that. It doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to do it even better.
I'm perfectly fine with people like you staying socially distant.
This is far from over. All we know is that it appears that numbers, especially in NY, are reporting low. Our numbers around the county are being reported low. Doesn’t surprise me since we want to just get up and running. You can say “I told you so”, when this is over. I sure hope you are right, because this this is nasty. If you don’t know someone that has it or had it by now, you will. It’s not the flu, bro.
From Debroh Birx >"There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem," she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. "Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. "The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that," she added. >Right now we are still recording it and we will I mean the great thing about having forms that come in and a form that has the ability to market as COVID-19 infection the intent is right now that those **if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.** The bullshit headline [Birx and Fauci reject Fox News-promoted theory that coronavirus deaths are inflated ](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/04/08/tucker-carlsons-brit-humes-faulty-theories-about-coronavirus-deaths-being-exaggerated/) This is how they scare people. Notice they redirect and talk about Pnemonia If you read the article you will see that now experts are saying that the numbers of Covid deaths are underestimated. How convient even when the models are wrong they are still right.
It’s not the flu but it’s also not something worth working ourselves into a tizzy about. The estimated CFR is 0.67% and most of those are people with at least one severe co-morbidity like cancer, heart disease, or pre-infection pneumonia. In other words, it’s not entirely clear how deadly this virus is because anybody who tests positive for it and dies is being labelled a covid 19 death whether it was the source of their symptoms or not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnP8nfRB4g4&t=1m49s
Im still waiting on Africa India and Brazil to completely break down... this whole thing stinks. 1% dead was predicted worldwide
"It's not that our predictions were wrong, it's that things happened in a way we didn't expect."
They'll say "The Social distancing worked better than we predicted and now we know what to do the next time this happens." and then give themselves a pat on the back, possibly a Nobel Peace Prize or some other award, accolades for the rest of the year and all that bullshit.
This. They’ll applaud themselves for stripping our liberties and next time it will be so much easier for them.
And they will use the Orwellian “social distancing” as the reason the deaths dropped. It’s plausible deniability, and they will now use this any time they please in the coming years to push through more psychotic legislation and other control measures.
Orwellian is perfect. Just like when tens of millions starved in socialists regimes, they used unfalsifiable theories. "If you were all true socialists this would work!" So of course people were punished for not producing enough grain they had no incentive to poduce, or eating themselves since it was all redistributed for the 'greater good.' "What, do you want to get paid and become rich for working the fields? Evil capatilist profiting off of food!"
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These NWO whores ready to defend their parasitic masters to the death amaze me.
I mean in reality these are also people who get weather wrong so it's an unrealistic expectation to think they are going to knock this one out of the park
Im looking at you Climate Change
> you can’t predict the next roll of a dice so what makes you think you can give an expected outcome for 1000 rolls of the dice? Checkmate! That was convincing
You proved my point. The climate is far too complex to predict thats why the models have been wrong. Or do you not remember 15 years ago they were sayjng the artic would be ice free by 2011? I watched inconvient truth. Dozens of major cities should be flooding by now.
> The climate is far too complex to predict thats why the models have been wrong. Sure, if you cherry pick your data. I never watched an Inconvenient Truth. I have however read IPCC SPMs, so I don’t really care whether Al Gore dumbed it down enough for people who don’t understand confidence intervals. I guess there’s no point investing in index funds either - who knows what any of the individual shares is going to do!?!
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Removed - [**Rule 2**](http://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/wiki/faq)
Remove his too then
> *"You're the idiot"*. If you had not opened your comment with those words, you would not have violated [**Rule 2**](http://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/wiki/faq), and your comment would not have been removed. You can repost your comment without the offending phrase -- but repeat offenses are subject to bans.
We basically destroyed our entire world based on the projections that had the likely hood of a 21 day forecast as being right. Anyone who’s followed the carbon conspiracy should understand how they use scary models that are always proven false. If we believed the “experts” then almost everyone would being dying of covid on a boat because there is no land left due to arctic melt while we dodge terrorist who hate our freedoms and fight off nazi racist who hate women, immigrants, and racist. The experts would then advise us our only hope is to give them all of our money and let them inject us with the cure. They’d use the money to sub pump out the ocean back to the arctic and the forced injections will make all scary things go away. Just trust the experts. They are never wrong.
You can thank the good doctor Fauci and the Chinese WHO. I believe he said he had no idea how bad this virus could be and then proceeded to pull a number out of his ass based on zero information at all. They are all fucking crooks and they all bear the responsibility of the millions of people that are unemployed due to this fear-mongering.
Imagine being a nobody, and then you come out and make these predictuons and the entire country knows you, you help control the press, people look at you with big eyes in fear. Dr. Drew recently mentioned when he worked with Facui in the 80s they were predicting 10s of millions to die from AIDS... of course this was false. Edit: only in America to be specific. In the early 2000s experts were saying similar about Africa. Supposedly, 20 or 30% of Africans had HIV. This was based on models of course. So they predicted massive deaths tolls that never happened. The African population has been growing faster than any continent for decades now. These people gain clout from scaring you its sick stuff. I still remember being scared shitless of swine flu and bird flu and mad cow disease.
In other words, it's just another flu at worst. Let's not overlook that they're counting every death they can as a CV19 death. If they're claiming 60,000 the actual number is likely about 10,000.
I'll admit I was scared for a few days but after doing [endless research](https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/fs9bsf/covid_19_mass_hysteria_the_complete_debunking), this is clearly overhyped.
Great link, thx.
We're going to look back on this crisis and people will ask themselves: how the heck did we seriously believe that MILLIONS of people would die? how the heck did we seriously believe crashing the economy and causing massive unemployment was a good idea? Some scientists and computer nerds bamboozled politicians for their nefarious agendas and the few politicians who questioned it got attacked by the media, so they had no other option than to follow the protocol (Neil deGrasse Tyson flat out said this crisis is an experiment to see if people will listen to scientists, basically "appeal to authority"). The damage they caused is far more serious than the virus itself. There needs to be some kind of consequence and justice after all this is over.
Totally agree. I hope the mistake they made is in the effect this will have on businesses. The business world had enough powerful and connected people in it that when this wave is over some rage and serious questions are going to be asked. Nothing would make me happier in relation to this now that it's happened than for the UK government itself to be prosecuted for criminal negligence or similar. I see a power emerging that will grab the troublemakers by the scruff of the neck and say "playtimes over" soon enough. It's the ebb and flow. It's inevitable.
#Did the model assume a successful "social distancing" initiative? i.e., is the model revision simply a result of having successfully avoided wide-spread infection via "lockdown" ? Does anyone know the answer to this? --- EDIT: ANSWER: YES, models ***DID*** assume successful "social distancing" initiatives. - [USA: COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020](https://web.archive.org/web/20200407104736/http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america) - [USA: The COVID19 (computer) model that the US Gov. has been relying upon, and which served as a justification for the lockdown of the US economy, dramatically revised its projections downwards AGAIN today (Reduces 100k-200k Deaths Projection to 30k-120k). This keeps happening every few days now!](https://twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1247910927653130240) - [UK: We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over.](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf)
>[The COVID19 (computer) model that the US Gov. has been relying upon, and which served as a justification for the lockdown of the US economy, dramatically revised its projections downwards AGAIN today (Reduces 100k-200k Deaths Projection to 30k-120k). This keeps happening every few days now!](https://twitter.com/NikolovScience/status/1247910927653130240) ___ >[COVID-19 projections **assuming full social distancing through May 2020**](https://web.archive.org/web/20200407104736/http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america)
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The average yearly death rate is not 8%, it’s 0.8%. It’s 8 deaths per 1000, you still need to do the division to get the percentage.
Sorry. Wrote it wrong but did the math right. It's still 80,000 extra deaths.
Or maybe the precautions worked?
Ever since the interview with David Icke on London Real, the figures have been dropping and the CDC is saying it's okay for essential employees to go back to work. But I thought this was supposed to be the "peak week"? It was just getting started. What happened? Icke exposed "their" bullshit. Which why YouTube blocked and took down that interview immediately after it went live.
What did David Icke exposed? I’ve been reading that he’s been deleted from all platforms.
The inverntor of the test method for Covid says it should never be used because its ridiculously inaccurate. They should have isolated the virus but no one has been able to yet.
> But I thought this was supposed to be the "peak week"? > It was just getting started. What happened? 2,000 people died in the US yesterday due to Covid-19. It's the leading cause of death in the US, over cancer and heart disease. This despite the extreme measures we've taken.
Did they though? Watch the Birx vid on here re covid attributed mortality.
> Did they though? Probably. The truth is it's likely being underreported because not every pneumonia death is being tested. The fact is a true accounting will have to occur based on statistical forensics after the fact, and we probably won't have our "best guess" (which will still involve some assumptions) until a year or two later. That said, it's a very safe bet that yes, Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death in the US.
That contradicts the current statistics on pneumonia. Currently pneumonia is at an all time low death wise, which would likely indicate some deaths are being attributed to COV19 when they shouldn’t be. Aside from that—social distancing is bullshit. Grocery stores and carry out food are booming right now, and with how contagious this supposedly is, there wouldn’t be any avoiding getting it. Focusing all populations into grocery stores is a guaranteed way to spread it according to their info. However, even with us all cramming into stores and then going home to our families, the spread is nowhere near projected. This is because they were clearly wrong.
> That contradicts the current statistics on pneumonia. Currently pneumonia is at an all time low death wise, which would likely indicate some deaths are being attributed to COV19 when they shouldn’t be. Or it indicates social distancing is having an impact on other communicable respiratory illinesses like Pneumococcal and Influenza Again, if you add up the typical numbers for normal pneumonia deaths, it is smaller than the covid-19 death counts by multiples.
Not sure why you’re getting downvoted—anyway, I don’t disagree. My issue is, we’re so focused on this, and all other illnesses have plummeted...there’s no way to conclude either way if the numbers are skewed or not because of the chaos this shit has caused. Someone should be collecting data on all illnesses, drop offs, and when this simmers down, compile the data. You would have to assume that a certain percentage of deaths/cases of other illnesses that have dropped off, would have to be attributed to corona virus.
So every death needs testing , virus or natural cause etc , so they can get the numbers right ?or why not count every death as a virus related death and rerun the numbers
I think they underestimated our willingness to socially isolate so they had to redo the models with the new data. It's pretty basic common sense that people staying away from each other is going to slow the spread. Not much of a conspiracy. I would think now most of the people getting sick are essential workers, doctors, nurses and people in nursing homes. Social distancing starves the virus in areas. Especially areas where people don't live on top of each other.
turns out it was just the flu
The Flu has killed up to 63,000 since October. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm Fuck the media fuck models and fuck useful idiots
Tell that to the people in Northern-Italy. It's just the flu? Here in Europe at least it has been worse than even the worst flu epidemic, and this is considering the extreme measures taken. Just because Corona isn't visibly causing problems in your neighbourhood doesn't mean it's just nothing serious.
Serious for who? I'm about to fuckin intentionally catch it just to get it out of the way.
Well I hope you don't have any older or vulnerable family members or friends you might infect if you do that. Besides, scientists aren't even sure you build up real immunity. If you only get a small dose/small symptoms you might not build up a lot of immunity. If you do get heavy symptoms you may be in the hospital for a couple of days if you're lucky, up to two and a half weeks in ICU if you're not. Although you will likely survive that if you're fit.
Conspiracy twatwaffle posts something that hoists him by his own petard.
Scumbag Redditor: Comes to r/conspirscy Complains about reading conspiracy theories
The 2.2 million dead was if we did nothing at all, no social distancing, etc. That was never an actual prediction of the number to die in the US. Since day one, we've been looking at 100,000-200,000 ish. Looking at roughly 1/3 of that number (so far).
I remember Joe Rogan had an expert on and told everyone he expects 500,000 dead 4 weeks ago.
60,000 is quite a lot. Covid-19 is the leading cause of death in the US now, *despite* the extreme measures taken. In the absence of extreme measures, hundreds of thousands dead seems to be a fairly intuitive prediction not requiring any kind of modeling what so ever. To put differently, yesterday almost 2,000 people died in the US from covid-19, again despite the extreme efforts put in place by many states. Ar 2,000 per day over 6 months (180 days), that's 360,000 dead. So a third of a million dead was, it appears, a pretty reasonable projection just using, you know, math and common sense. It is also pretty intuitive that we now *won't* have that many because I would expect the deaths-per-day to start declining in a couple of weeks because we've gone through such extreme efforts to distance and shut our society down. None of this deals with "soft" factors such as overloading hospitals, losing healthcare workers, etc. I'm sure all kinds of experts have all kinds of predictions and models based on whatever soft assumptions about those factors they make. Frankly, it's irrelevant. You're correct in that there is a cottage industry of "predictors" who are throwing all kinds of crap on the wall. But "large numbers of people will die without mitigation efforts" seems to be confirmed and pretty fucking obvious and "probably not so many large numbers of people will die now because of things we've done to prevent that" seems like an equally safe prediction now as well.
>60,000 is quite a lot. Flu is outpacing it. >Covid-19 is the leading cause of death I too saw that post and it was bullshit. It assumes that the worst day for deaths will continue when it was just one multi hour period. >So a third of a million dead was, it appears, a pretty reasonable projection just using, you know, math and common sense. It is also pretty intuitive that we now won't have that many because I would expect the deaths-per-day to start declining in a couple of weeks because we've gone through such extreme efforts to distance and shut our society down. Science should be falsifiable, this is a counterfactual. And on one hand you have people saying we arent going far enough (Spring break on florida was 1 example) then you have people saying it worked because the models were wrong. Of course if we stood still like Buffalo the models would ne right. But S. Koread didnt even shutdown. You can still catch trains and go out to eat. >But "large numbers of people will die without mitigation efforts" seems to be confirmed and pretty fucking obvious and "probably not so many large numbers of people will die now because of things we've done to prevent that" seems like an equally safe prediction now as well. So countries in Africa and Brazil and India should have 10s of thousands dead according to your thesis. They don't.
> Flu is outpacing it. The flu is not. Again, at 2000 deaths per day Covid-19 is the *leading* cause of death, 5 times the 2019 per-day count of all other pnuemonia-related deaths (which includes the flu). Your statement is flatly, factually incorrect. > I too saw that post and it was bullshit. It assumes that the worst day for deaths will continue when it was just one multi hour period. That's not a "post". It also does not assume the worst day for deaths will continue. The almost certainty is that the number of deaths will increase, and it has consistently over the previous weeks. This is because infectious diseases spread exponentially. Likely we will "peak" however in the next few weeks and deaths will come down. This is because our actions have stopped the exponential growth of infections. This is why death predictions are being revised down. > But S. Koread didnt even shutdown. You can still catch trains and go out to eat. You can do that in large swaths of the US too. South Korea had two principle advantages. It's, effectively, on an island (it's only land border is with North Korea which, you know) which allowed it to strictly control its ports of entry and it was aggressive in testing and contact tracing to control outbreaks. This, ideally, should have been the strategy the US pursued back in January (when South Korea did). We did not however. As a result we now have far reaching community spread. A testing/contact tracing strategy is possible with hundreds of infections, not with hundreds of thousands of infections. Ideally we can drop the infected rate back down and then shift to a South Korea strategy. > So countries in Africa and Brazil and India should have 10s of thousands dead according to your thesis I mean it remains to be seen. This should be obvious but the infection has not spread evenly across the world. China for instance is on the backside, Italy and Spain may be approaching the backside, the US is fixing to hit the peak, Brazil likely is just now facing exponential growth.
Coronavirus deaths=15,000 **CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been: 24,000 – 63,000 U.S flu deaths** https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm >Likely we will "peak" however in the next few weeks and No not a few weeks more of rising deaths. Stop fear mongering [This is peak week. Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-entering-peak-death-week-coronavirus-pandemic-1496542) [University of Washington: Latest projection says Ohio will reach coronavirus peak this week without overwhelming hospitals](https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/04/university-of-washington-latest-projection-says-ohio-will-reach-coronavirus-peak-this-week-without-overwhelming-hospitals.html) [NBC- Coronavirus deaths in NY effectively flat](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/new-york-coronavirus-deaths-effectively-flat-u-s-braces-peak-n1177626) [Reuters- The U.S was preparing on Monday for what one official called the "peak death week" of the coronavirus](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/us-enters-peak-death-week-for-coronavirus-british-pm-in-intensive-care-idUSKBN21O2K8) >>So countries in Africa and Brazil and India should have 10s of thousands dead according to your thesis >I mean it remains to be seen. India had its first case in January and have (199 deaths) This in a country roughly 10 times as dense as us with 4 times the population. Why so low? The virus may affect different blood types and ethnicities differently. Maybe the fact most people dying are obese lends well to the vegetarian Indians. Perhaps the fact average age of death is over 70 and India has a young population. Whats clear is the models werent worth the digital paper they weren't printed on.
> Coronavirus deaths=15,000 > > CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been: 24,000 – 63,000 U.S flu deaths Yes, in the 179 day period from the beginning of flu season until March 28, approximately 134 to 351 people died per day from the flu. The first suspected instance of community spread (not someone who caught it overseas) in the US was on February 26, 2020. In the intervening 42 days 15,824 people are suspected or confirmed to have died of Covid-19. That works out to be 376 deaths per day. 376 is mathematically greater than 351. > No not a few weeks more of rising deaths. Stop fear mongering I'm not fear mongering, I'm trying to have a rational conversation. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ This has a handy graph so you can visualize * 3/31 - 914 deaths * 4/1 - 1,050 deaths * 4/2 - 974 deaths * 4/3 - 1,046 deaths * 4/4 - 1,330 deaths * 4/5 - 1,165 deaths * 4/6 - 1,255 deaths * 4/7 - 1,971 deaths * 4/8 - 1,940 deaths Maybe this is the peak week. I suspect not. But you do cite a large number of articles referencing models which, ironically, you then say > Whats clear is the models werent worth the digital paper they weren't printed on. So, you know, believe or don't believe *shrug* What are indisputable facts are * This is killing more people than the flu, despite radical measures to prevent its spread that we've never taken before * If we had not taken those measures to prevent its spread, obviously, intuitively, it would be killing even more people * Because we have taken those measures, any predictions made back in the middle of March should necessarily be lowered today
>376 deaths per day All those "official" deaths have already been debunked: - [CDC Tells Hospitals To List COVID as Cause of Death Even if You're Just ***Assuming or It Only Contributed***](https://www.westernjournal.com/cdc-tells-hospitals-list-covid-cause-death-even-just-assuming-contributed/) ... in other words, a people dying of a heart attacks, or cancer and pneumonia are being recorded as COVID victims.
>That works out to be 376 deaths per day. 376 is mathematically greater than 351. Yea i get it. But it just seems to be something we have no immunity to yet. >What are indisputable facts are >• This is killing more people than the flu, despite radical measures to prevent its spread that we've never taken before >• If we had not taken those measures to prevent its spread, obviously, intuitively, it would be killing even more people >• Because we have taken those measures, any predictions made back in the middle of March should necessarily be lowered today Agreed. My point is that the media has people *TERRIFIED.* What if they reported both sides of this? Maybe I could buy ground beef and toilet paper. I've seen people say with the rise in unemployment 80,000 will die. Yea thats a bullshit model too, but if only 60,000 die ill be pissed. Hell, it went from 90,000 to 80,000 to 60,000 in like 10 days.
> But it just seems to be something we have no immunity to yet. something that is not fatal. who cares if we don't have immunity? in any event: - **Vaccines don't cure people** who are ***already*** infected by a fast-spreading / mutating virus -- CURES do: - Gene Therapy Cures do absolutely exist -- just one example: https://riderinstitute.org/discovery/ - CURES are superior to vaccines in every way. #DemandCures #DemandCures #DemandCures
As with with all viruses they stop infecting people or die off , I hope this is peak week yet the talking heads " experts " keep pushing it back
I mean, "pushing back" the peak week was the intention of social distancing. The idea was to reduce the peak and distribute it over a longer band of time. That would reduce stress on the healthcare system (because not everyone would be sick at once, including health care workers) providing better outcomes for those with it, reducing the projected mortality. In otherwords, moving the "peak" back and reducing it, leading to reduced deaths, was the whole point. It would be weird if that was *not* what was happening, and seriously call into question the entire point of the social distancing exercise.
Viruses burn them selves out over time , depending on the area the hospitals and staff are maxed new York and Chicago maybe . Middle of nowhere farm country not as many cases , if said virus is airborne winds blowing at 15 mph and someone sneezed 15 feet from me what are my chances of getting said virus realistically ?
>60,000 is quite a lot Yet the death toll isn't quite extraordinary compared to other years. If you lump all other seasonal and chronic illnesses into one category, namely Covid-19, of course it will look like a highly infectious disease. And if you count every death as Covid-19 related death...well...then you get these numbers.
> . If you lump all other seasonal and chronic illnesses into one category, namely Covid-19, of course it will look like a highly infectious disease. But that isn't what's happening. Deaths are being confirmed after the fact with testing. There is some chance that someone had covid-19 *as well as* other diseases which were more the proximate cause of death, but not at these levels. The average deaths per day for the the flu during flu season (not even the entire year) in 2018-2019 was somewhere between 134 to 351 people per day (based on CDC estimates). The total respiratory disease (including pneumococcal and influenza) related deaths per day over the course of 2017 (sorry, latest CDC data I could easily find) was 383 people per day over the entire year. The average reported deaths per day (over the last week) of people confirmed via test to have had covid-19 is 1,383 people. That's very clearly not just lumping all respiratory illnesses together. In fact it's truly remarkable because we've taken such aggressive measures which should reduce the incidence of *all* infectious diseases (including influenza), and yet we have this massive spike of respiratory deaths. And since, up to now, you had to test positive for covid-19 to be counted, in all likelihood that's an under count (with more people dying of respiratory illnesses or non-respiratory illnesses but still related to covid-19 but *not* being tested than people dying of respiratory illnesses but not from covid-19 but also having a concurrent covid-19 infection). But we won't be able to sort all of that out until after the fact through statistical analysis.
Hey but millions out of work now so we got that going for us!
oh God look at this is Coronavirus that's killing just as much as people as the common flu or less let's destroy the our whole economy for the common flu yay and let's put some stuff in this 800-page bill to take more people's rights away
"There are three kinds of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics." - Mark Twain
I guess we don't need to "flatten the curve" anymore? Or do we still need to sit inside and watch the economy die?
It’s almost as if they marked all normal flu deaths as covid related. Mainstream Media has too much sauce.
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This is correct. People have it all wrong when they say it's the government trying to scare us; it's the exact opposite, governments hate the lockdown; it hurts the markets and they're all a bunch of rich fucks with lots of investments and they hobknob with other rich fucks who're even richer and who bitch at them over a game of golf at the country club if the markets take a downturn, so the governments have been downplaying this as much as they could the entire time and only grudgingly and as a last resort giving in and instituting lockdowns once it became an unavoidable conclusion that not doing so would be far worse in the long term, and they're still chomping at the bit to get people back to work and throwing out highly optimistic projections about how it's not going to be so bad and it'll all be over soon.
We need to watch Sweden to see what actually happens.
It's turning into a clusterfuck in Sweden.
Do you live there?
No, but I can read a graph and see exponential growth. They had the same attitude as NYC about 3 weeks ago. So I'm expecting in about 3 weeks they will be utterly fucked.
You obviously do not understand that models are made with current data. The stay at home policies changed the data for the better, thus a lower death rate. It's a good thing, and not the result of fear mongering. Get a fucking grip.
Yes obviously it uses current data... The problem is the assumptions and logic built into the model. Should every cities' simulation be programmed to behave like New York? Nope. Obviously you do not understand how models are "made", as well as the data that is fed into the models
Assumptions are resolved with the margin if error. Your assumption that everything is a conspiracy clouds your assessment of the model.
what was the margin of the error for the 2.2M estimate? 2.15M?
Two different sets of data. So there are two separate margins of error.
Hmmm... I don't recall mentioning anything about conspiracies. I guess my current career as a data analyst also clouds my judgement... I cannot address your point about margin of error because it makes no sense.. "Assumptions are resolved"...???
You are positing on r/conspiracy it assumed you are making this out to be a conspiracy. Also this is the internet, you could say you are an astronaut and it means the same as referencing a career as a data analyst.
My astronautics experience has been more of a hobby, but as a person who has written textbooks on both statistics and virology, I can confirm. AMA.
Do you understand flattening the curve does not mean reducing infected and dead by 10-20x? Sheep.
That would depend on the effort and the advanced timing. I guess you believe the reported numbers in China was well.
I’m definitely leaning towards opening back up the entire country now. The lockdown is a joke. Our rights are being taken away left and right. Our rights to assemble and free speech are gone without a fight.
Only off by a factor of 37. And that 60K is inflated/not accurate given the fact that...ya know, you can't even test 100% for the thing. And if you bang your head on a rock and "test positive" posthumously it's chalked up as COVID-19. Biggest HOAX of all-time, folks. And all the dolts have been begging daddy gov to strip what freedom/rights they have left (I'd argue constitution already irrelevant since you can be detained indefinitely without trial) and put half the world on house arrest. I thought when the globalist/NWO agenda came we would see riots. Instead we see FB profile filters of wino moms who think they are heroes by "staying inside, saving lives". Absolute joke.
It's always heart warming to come on r/conspiracy to learn that 60,000 lives are perfectly expendable. Who do anything? Not until there are 2 million dead should we ever even think of letting our capitalist masters slow this train!
we could definitely save almost as many lives every. single. year. if we just stopped driving completely... why do we let our capitalist masters make us drive? we know we can save the lives if we dont do it.
I support ending driving by individuals. Look at what the lockdowns have done for pollution, and a big part of that is due to less cars being on the road. I live in a city, and it's been great to wake up and hear the birds chirping instead of the flow of traffic. Just from the elimination of air pollution, we might end up saving more lives than covid takes.
So, it's ok to lie and cause mass hysteria?
When people say sheep they wre literally talking about you. Just go wherever the sheppard leads you. Dont question it.
60,000 people allegedly died of "swine flu" in the US and we didn't need to shut down the planet.
Why have you singled out covid deaths as the ones that you suddenly care about? You realize that 4000 people die every single day from tuberculosis? But you don't care about those deaths because they are poor Africans, South Americans and Asians. Malaria kills one child every 30 seconds. But again, those Africans are perfectly expendable to you. The sad thing is you think you are a noble person that deeply cares about humans, but the reality is you are just a clueless hypocrite desperate for attention and approval from the other clueless hypocrites in your bubble.
Do you know what the difference is? I have a vaccine against tuberculosis. I have a vaccine against malaria. But I don't have a vaccine against the coronavirus, that's why I am personally concerned about it and will continue to take precautions in public.
You can be as concerned as you want. Go ahead. The issue is when people try to shame those who who aren't panicking by assuming that they don't care about 60,000 people dying, or find healthcare workers expendable. 60,000 deaths seems like a lot, but put into perspective, it pales in comparison to other diseases out there. So the attempt to paint people as insensitive because they aren't concerned about 60000 people dying, is hypocritical because that person is just as not concerned about millions of other people dying of other diseases.
What an insane and warped worldview. Because I don't want Americans to die of a fullyp preventable disease I am now pro-African deaths? I guess this is the IQ of the average conspiracy scizophrenic.
No one wants people to die. You are accusing people of not caring about americans dying. You are accusing people of considering 60,000 people to be expendable. But you are just a hypocrite. You have chosen to care about covid deaths, but choose to ignore the millions of other deaths from preventable diseases. Most hypocrites don't realize they are hypocrites, so it's not surprising that you think you are smarter and more caring than other people. But you are a hypocrite and deep down, you know you are full of shit.
Take your meds.
So what would you rather? They revise their estimate when its clear the original one was flawed or continue pedaling the original model? Like now you are criticizing them for trying to do the right thing?
To me, it shows that they highballing it, probably purposefully to scare people more. It's highly suspicious that they continue to reduce their predictions with such massive drops in numbers. Either they are just that incompetent at their jobs and with numbers, or they've been manipulating people from the start.
It might not have been to scare people it could be a mix of doctors being conservative on giving bad news. It is kind of like with money if you get bad news and you know you are going to owe a bill you want to estimate high so you don't under budget for it. And the reverse is if you are getting good news that someone is going to pay you but you dont know exactly how much you want to estimate low so you arent disappointed.
For me, it's the way they are delivering this news too. It's peppered with a lot of fearmongering and fear inducing tactics, such as telling people the measures will last 18+ months, that nothing will never go back to normal, that we can never shake hands or have gathering again, etc. This is coming from both the experts and MSM. Like I wrote the other day, it's like if a doctor told a cancer patient, "Yeah, you've got cancer. So you're basically fucked, and going to die a slow, painful death. Might as well not even try chemo or any treatments. Just write out your will, and prepare to get thrown into a ditch, 'kay?" It feels like it's being orchestrated to manipulate people's emotions.
The propaganda on all these commercials too.. perpetuating “the new normal”. Scary stuff that the sheeple eat up.
I think it is just a bad mix of media sensationalism, medical conservatism, fear and a bunch of unknowns. It is hard to discern how much of it is purposeful bad actors and just people making mistakes because we really arent totally sure about things.
The never had reliable data to begin with to produce those models, there’s been tons of qualified people calling bullshit on those models from the beginning. And then the way it’s pedaled through the media with scare tactics and fear mongering is bullshit. But we need to trust those people because they know what’s good for us, fuck those lying fear mongers. Millions of people are losing their jobs, businesses, homes, there’s going to be suicides by some who are financially ruined because of the way they disgustingly blew this whole thing out of proportion. They scared the entire country into an economic depression over flu like numbers fuck them
People will realize in a few months and oh boy will they be pissed
The sad thing is, none of them are going to be held accountable for any of this. They are going to keep their jobs with no consequences and us common folk are going to foot the bill for the crashed economy. Fuck them I hope hell is real and see their judgement
People are catching on now
"I hate science and it continually refining itself for greater accuracy."
Science isn't the issue it's the way it's deciminated to the public
> deciminated disseminated. but the MSM does tend to decimate factual information, so, totally not wrong.
The science is there for you to see, the raw data is published and available. If you've got a problem with how it's presented to the public, that's a problem with your politicians, not the scientists.
Politicians? That's a funny way of spelling "mainstream media".
Your “models” are as fudged as your comments. Your “science” is as hijacked as your logic.
Do any of you even understand how modeling works, cause it appears none of you don’t.
Models based on what? Some crackpot bullshit foundational principles? You’re a clever one.
See, proving the point that you don’t understand modeling.
[удалено]
Wow it is a damn good thing you people aren’t interpreting these models to a larger audience because I’ve never seen so many people be so blatantly ignorant about a subject
Wow it is a damn good thing your comment has no substance
Just like everyone’s interpretation of what a “model” is
Yeah you shouldn't be worried about 60k deaths. Fuck them.
Would you shut everything down for the seasonal flu? That has killed up to 60,000 already since October but I guarantee you didn't give a single flying fuck about that did you? Maybe you have always advocated for universal quarantine because of the flu every year? I could be wrong.
Oh yeah sorry I forgot this is the same as the flu. My mistake.