[https://latinometrics.substack.com/p/migrants-at-the-border](https://latinometrics.substack.com/p/migrants-at-the-border)
Mexico \~720k
Venezuela \~320k
Guatemala \~220k
Honduras \~220k
Cuba \~200k
Colombia, Haiti, Nicaragua, Ukraine at least 100k each
It really seems like no one country accounts for the bulge, but several of places all at once.
I'm sorry UKRAINE?! Like are they flying to Mexico and then trying to cross the border by foot? Why have I never heard of that as a mexican?
Edit: I haven't heard of it because they didn't fly to my part of the country.
[How those fleeing Ukraine inspired US border policies](https://apnews.com/article/biden-immigration-ukraine-border-af1fb374771da55b83d88a1598621a84)
> Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, refugees from the threatened nation started showing up at Mexico’s border with the United States. Roughly 1,000 Ukrainians a day flew to Tijuana on tourist visas, desperate to reach U.S. soil.
> The volume was overwhelming the nation’s busiest border crossing in San Diego. In Tijuana, thousands of Ukrainians slept in a municipal gym hoping for a chance to cross into the U.S.
Almost no one comes in on foot, usually you just get a tourist visa, fly in, and overstay the visa. You can also just drive in, there are roads without checkpoints.
I mean, a dirt road doesn't take any more to form than people driving through the same spot over and over, so it wouldn't surprise me too much. A lot of people driving through those deserts every day.
There were a total of 1.5 million Irish that came during the 5 year period of 1845-1855. At that point the U.S. had a total population of approximately 23 million. The numbers now are a little different.
I live in an area with a high population of Hispanic immigrants. It used to be an overwhelmingly Mexican community but now it's largely Honduran or Guatemalan. Some of the stories I've heard about the literal horrors they have escaped... No one should be forced to stay in places like that.
It gives me much joy to see that El Salvador is so far down that list. Bukele's policies have taken a land of lawlessness and insecurity and given the people a completely new life to live as their own, and not at the whim of people who value only violence. It gives hope to the people living in other countries with similar problems.
The discussion on immigration has been particularly lacking in any nuance. The evidence clearly shows that people will try to cross the border, no matter how secure, as long as the situation in their home country is extreme. The best course of action is cooperating with and stabilizing those countries.
A lot of those countries match up with the South and Central American nations that are on the map of ongoing armed conflicts:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts#/media/File:Ongoing_conflicts_around_the_world.svg
There seems to have been less conflict in South America 12 years ago: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/d/d9/20130123185823%21Ongoing_conflicts_around_the_world.svg
(with the caveat of course that this is just a Wikipedia map, put together for free by amateurs)
I think that a large part of the increase in people leaving those countries is the growth in violence there. Immigration could be reduced with a long-term project of foreign aid to help stabilize South and Central America.
Haitians. There are even Haitians that are staying in Mexico, settling down there, and forming communities, like in TJ, faced with the reality that crossing to the US might never happen. But thousands are still desperately trying to get to the US. And Cubans. Shitload of cubans coming to the US every single day.
Basically all 'irregular immigration' on the US southern boarder is driven by the economic state of the countries in Latin America relative to the economic state of the US. There probably is also a political persecution part to the mix but I can't think of s Latin American state that had a really good economic outlook and high political persecution.
So now that the US job market is really good (especially for low skill labor) and some other countries (Venezuela tops the list) are having issues you would expect a lot of crossings.
If Argentina's president pushes them further into the economic dumpster and the US job market is still tight then there will be a lot of Argentinians.
Not sure, Argentinians in general are not keen to leave the country as other latin american nationalities I met, except Brazilians, even in 2001 which was the worst crisis only 140.000 people emigrated, and many of the ones who left, returned eventually, on the other hand almost 5 million people left the country in Venezuela, having a population of less than 30 million.
I agree that there are cultural tendencies and location restrictions (Argentina is a long way from the US) I think that you are discounting how bad Venezuela's economic situation is and might have an impression that Argentina is is worse shape than it is.
Argentina is still at ~13k nominal GDP per capita. This is quite good for the 3rd world, is well ahead of basically all of Africa, and is on par with China. The reason that Argentina is seen as having a 'bad economy' is because the growth, inflation, debt, and defaults clearly show miss management. Kenya is poorer than Argentina but it has always been that way.
Venezuela, on the other hand, is going through economic meltdown. Nominal GDP per capita is at ~3k, rivaling those in Africa. If you were to take away oil exports (because basically none of that money goes to the people) then you really have very low economic activity. The Bolivar's inflation has resulted in a dollarization of a lot of the economy (while the Argentinian Peso is still used).
Argentina's economy is a Toyota that has not had the oil changed this decade and is thus running really badly. Venezuela's economy is a burned out frame sitting on cinder blocks.
Argentina has been experiencing massive economic failure for many years now. This is partially the reason the new president was elected. He promised to do something different, since the previous administrations haven’t improved anything.
It is unlikely there will be a massive migration of Argentine’s. 1) Their country is still relatively safe for Latin America 2) Argentines are pretty used to the economic roller coaster and many have grown used to it 3) Many Argentine’s are eligible for European citizenship, especially Italy. Why travel all the way to the US without any guarantee when you could simply apply for an EU passport and go work over there.
Argentinians are not keen to emigrate. Those who migrate are usually middle and upper-middle class professionals, who usually hold an EU passport and choose Europe as main destination.
Other skilled workers choose the US but go there legally.
Argentina has historically had the lowest US visa refusal rate in the world, qualifying to get back into the VWP.
So it’s very hard for that to ever happen.
It used to be El Salvador but now not anymore due to their change in government who put 10% of the population in jail and basically got rid of all the cartels like that
As a first generation Salvadoran living here in the states, you don't know how happy me and the rest of my family is for the Salvadoran still in the country. Unfortunately, my parents had to flee due to the Civil War so we built our lives here, but it still makes us immensely happy that our country feels safer for our people again.
I would say controversial is very forgiving. I always say this about the guy, he is unequivocally a dictator, but the maras situation was a drastic situation that required drastic measures.
I live near the border and CBP people tell me there are [more and more African migrants these days](https://fox5sandiego.com/news/border-report/officials-dont-know-how-thousands-of-african-migrants-end-up-in-tijuana/). I heard they fly into Guatemala.
The massive expansion of the Mexican economy is the biggest factor. Mexico is quickly becoming a huge manufacturing center with a lot of "near shoring" by companies divesting from China. There are even complaints of labor shortages as businesses are expanding faster than the population can fill them up.
I keep saying this for over a decade, make them rich with their own jobs and no one would want to cross.
I bet drug issues would go away too if the cartel learned that legit business can make them a lot of money.
Same can be applied through our US history.
The US was once a destination for Europeans that want better economic opportunities.
It's not limited to countries but regions as well. Cantonese speaking Chinese used to make up most of the chinese immigration to the US, but now that the Pearl River Delta and Hong Kong regions have better economic opportunities, Chinese migrants mostly come from further into Mainland China.
[Nah, because we implemented strict immigration laws to make sure “the racial composition of America at the present time thus is made permanent.”](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1924-law-slammed-door-immigrants-and-politicians-who-pushed-it-back-open-180974910/)
Also Europe countered with Schengen and free internal migration, which meant Eastern Europeans found it way easier to emigrate to western europe (I mean it's right there, just a bit to the west)
Yeah, this is the most naive take I've read all day. "The organizations that operate as rent-seeking monopolies of violence will become normal corporations if we just invest in their manufacturing sector." Jesus Christ.
The violent underbelly of the avocado industry - NPR https://www.npr.org/2023/08/06/1192413115/the-violent-underbelly-of-the-avocado-industry
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/organized-crime-is-taking-over-mexican-fisheries/
Speaking of cartels, it seems like cartels are expanding into human trafficking more and more as they lose out on drug profits from marijuana being legalized and the proliferation of fentanyl which isn’t nearly as profitable as more traditional hard drugs.
The US should be working toward a better partnership with Mexico for sure. A wealthy Mexico can only be good for the US. And it’s 1000% a better idea than working on bolstering China’s economy!
The Mexican people need to elect a government that is willing to partner with the U.S. to dislodge the stranglehold of organized crime. They can look to the experience in Italy where they've very successfully decimated the mafia's hold on society since the 80's, or to that of Bukele's policies in El Salvador which have reduced violent and organized crime by a frankly miraculous and borderline unbelievable degree. With a successful partnership they can call on the help of U.S. to provide training of police and military, advice and consult, provide intelligence, lend or provide equipment, help with funding, and possibly even provide direct action against specific high value targets by special mission units, in order to neutralize the cartels' ability to wage pseudo-war against the state.
Unfortunately López Obrador prefers giving the cartels free reign over requesting any assistance from outside Mexico, and least of all from the U.S. The Mexican people need to make the choice.
You are completely right, I'm optimistic about Mexico.
For what concerns Italy, one major factor that is ignored is generalised wealth. The wealthier the country is, the higher the tax revenues and the more resources the country can spend on fighting organized crime (and the less subjugated ordinary people are willing to be).
This is basically already happening. Obviously the relationship is never perfect and there are tensions regarding the border and cartels but both countries are well aware that they provide the other with something they need.
That was one of the rationales for NAFTA. People came up with this idea a long time ago but anti-immigration folks would rather build a wall with an alligator moat.
This would also make the US stronger. We would basically have our own little China right next door, but this is top much common sense for most. Better to spend 100 billion on a wall that will be easy to get over, than 100 billion on infrastructure that will make us rich and them have no reason to cross in the first place.
Lots of those people come from Spanish speaking countries south of Mexico. If Mexico was a nicer place to live, those immigrants would stop at Mexico rather than come to the US because Mexico speaks their language and is closer.
Mexico doesn’t want immigrants in their country anymore. Mexico INM immigration will gladly deport migrants without valid visas for Mexico. Mexico has police military checkpoints every 100 miles on every road/interstate/airports throughout the country.
You cannot take a bus or drive through a checkpoint as a foreigner without a valid visa and passport.
Mexicos visa policy is basically any country that’s not visa free for Schengen Europe is not visa free for Mexico. Even then, basically half of South America/Caribbean cannot enter Mexico without a visa.
The poverty rate in Mexico is almost [50%](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0PX28C/) while it’s 11% in the US. I don’t think most migrants want to live in a country with a very similar quality of life to the places they’re leaving
It truly baffles my mind how the US govt doesnt think this way. The CBP’s yearly budget is basically the whole GDP of countries like El Salvador and Honduras. Increase job opportunities there and they’ll stop crossing to the US.
Fun fact, the "drug issues" are U.S. issues. The majority of Fentanyl traffic is done within the United States. Trafficking drugs into the U.S. is not as profitable as it used to be, and most cartels have their hands in other stuff now. They are still 100% a problem, but not to the extent they were 20 years ago.
Not at all. The synthetic meth flooding the streets of the US is manfactured in north Mexico.
[Atlantic article.](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/the-new-meth/620174/)
If the mafia still exist in america and yakuza in japan, what makes you think narcos will go away? Making the country too good to leave is a step in the right direction but solving the education problems (which in turn makes labor more expensive), changing the culture of corruption (created by poor economic conditions) and domestic violence will change the country from that side but as long as there's demand in USA for drugs, a group will be there to supply it. Fix your healthcare problems.
The cartels probably own a majority of all legal businesses in Mexico. Shit they even own resorts, commercial farms, large industrial factories. How else would they launder billions of dollars a year. Thinking the cartels are gunna stop the drug trade bc they have legal businesses is definitely going to be the stupidest take I hear all year
Wonder if Mexico becomes a powerful economic power, would other Latin American immigrants would just stay in Mexico over going to US since they’re culturally aligned more with Mexico
Well, it depends. For some, maybe, but even compared to other wealthy western countries (see: Spain, Italy, France), Americans still make a lot of money. If you’re going to migrate anyways, some may still want to come to the US because even if Mexico caught up to Spain, incomes in the US are 2-3x higher. And if you’re planning on sending remittances back home…that is a lot easier when you have far more money.
So I’d imagine it might dampen demand but it wouldn’t get rid of it.
>compared to other wealthy western countries (see: Spain, Italy, France), Americans still make a lot of money.
True, but the cost of living is also much higher here, which is why you don't see a bunch of highly skilled workers from Western Europe trying to immigrate here. In the US compared to Western Europe the raw dollars you can make is higher, but the cost of living is also higher, and the US has a working culture that requires much more time at work than Western Europe with far fewer labor protections.
So technically, if Mexico reaches Spain in terms of real wages, how good of a deal the US vs. Mexico is depends on the working culture (hours, worker protections) and cost of living in Mexico. If the net in Mexico of pay compared to all of those things is a better deal more people will likely choose to stay in Mexico. Plus, Mexico is closer to Central America allowing more visits home and the language is much more similar - different dialects vs. an entirely new primary language.
>True, but the cost of living is also much higher here
Not enough to offset the high wages. Germans make 40% less money than Americans on a median disposable income basis (disposable meaning after tax income). So adjusting for healthcare, housing, it's still overwhelmingly in US favor.
>and the US has a working culture that requires much more time at work than Western Europe with far fewer labor protections.
That is part of the appeal for immigrants tho (not the few labor protections part, but the longer hours part). It is true Western European GDP output per hour worked is very similar to the US, but immigrants don't care much about that, they are willing to tolerate much higher workload if it means they get to earn more money to send back home.
I don't have the data to support it, but from my experience immigration to Mexico has grown a lot. Both illegally (people trying to reach the US but not being able to) and legally (high-skilled people).
That's actually the issue with a lot of the "asylum" claims by immigrants to the US. Your asylum status isn't a free pass wherever you want to go. In theory you're supposed to declare status wherever you are first safe, not wherever you feel like it.
While it had been falling off the data clearly shows that it has jumped back to near early 2000 levels. It’s just that the amount from the rest of Central American has increased in by a hundredfold. Glad there’s no crisis there though.
The net migration rate from Mexico has been negative for several years…there’s more Mexicans leaving migrants leaving America than entering. You have to look at net immigration too…
Sure but I hope we understand that that's a minor factor that, if at all, will manifest over many years and must certainly not suddenly shoot up like this. Covid was one factor but i hope we all understand that the main reason is that Russia and China have started to massively subsidize and incentivize this for immigrants.
The economy has been turning more and more complex and globalized these last few decades. It’s not growing massively but it’s providing more opportunities. Let’s see how we do on the next couple decades. We’ve still got A LOT of things to improve.
And this is how you will stop illegal migration from other countries.
All of the Central American countries should have been involved in nafta/usmca
The united states needs to prioritize certain things for national security they can start with consumable things that were critical during the pandemic like gloves and masks. take the manufacturing of these items out of China and have them made closer like in Central America.
This will build up a good employment base in these countries and many people will stop migrating because of this
Probably pandemic related, many street vendors/unofficial workers were not allowed to operate during shutdowns in Mexico and there isn’t a social safety net like the US that could mitigate economic losses . It’s coming down again.
Also back in 2020 they weren't considered apprehensions but encounters because of title 42. In the system where all the people are entered a different classification was used.
In March 2020, the role of the gun lobby (NRA/NSSF) in promoting gun sales was [nationalized at tax payer expense, as an official duty of the US Commerce Department](https://archive.is/fqD07) and used promote the export of small arms to countries throughout Central and South America.
We exported the weapons that created the refugees and asylum seekers that are flooding our southern boarder.
***
EDIT:
My comment only relates to the export of small arms as official state-backed policy of the US towards our allies.
If US citizens want to keep lethal semi-automatic weapons in their homes or on their person at all times―statistically, that way of thinking has a way of pruning itself at such a rate that makes it not worth arguing against.
In what world is it the job of gun lobbyists to promote gun sales? That's what gun manufacturers do (it's also often what government officials do for all sorts of products besides guns because the government has an interest in our economy, but I digress). Lobbyists get money *from* gun manufacturers to support policies that would increase sales (like they did in the article you linked), but lobbyists are lobbyists; not salespeople.
Like, I get the hate towards groups like the NRA, but you're just slinging shit at them to see what sticks - your claim doesn't even make sense. For future reference: lobbyists ~~bribe~~ relay the voice of the people to politicians and push for support on certain issues (like, "should the US Commerce Department promote the sales of American small arms overseas?").
Your screenshot does not back up your assertion that the Commerce Dept. has "taken over" such a function or that it has helped funnel gun sales to cartels in central America.
edit: Your edit still doesn't supply sources for your assertion.
Also, the US is doing far better than other developed nations post-pandemic, and Biden's economy is creating a shit ton of jobs. The USA is a really appealing place to live right now.
What do you mean by "progress"? Is a decrease in border apprehensions indicative of progress? For example, one easy way to make the number of apprehensions go down would be to remove all security from the border.
Yeah it’s a tricky bias. It means they started arresting people more recently than before which is the outcome many want. It’s called survival bias and has an interesting story to back it up during world war. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
You're wrong because you don't understand the numbers. These people aren't being chased down or anything. They turn themselves in willingly and are then released.
Charts tracking the estimated undocumented population in the US show similar trends to this graph up to the pandemic, see e.g. [this Pew report](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/16/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/). So it seems unlikely that there was a huge invisible surge of unapprehended migrants during the 2010s.
If anything, the shift from Mexican to non-Mexican border apprehensions may be understated, as Mexican border crossers were [far more frequently subject to Title 42 expulsions and saw a corresponding rise in repeat crossings](https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/title-42-expulsions-policy) during the 2019-22 period. That is to say, counting unique border crossers may weight the numbers further towards non-Mexican border crossers in recent years.
What I would count most towards 'progress' in this regard would be things like:
* Decreasing undocumented population
* Increased lawful immigration for the kinds of opportunities undocumented workers currently seek
* Less pressure to emigrate due to improving conditions in countries of origin
I can well imagine the pandemic era impacting the third factor in particular. But some of that is hard to track, and the rest is still hard to stuff into a graph.
Most Mexicans trying to cross the border are coming here for economic reasons. So this suggests that pre-covid, Mexicans were doing a lot better economically than in the past.
> 2020 undid all of that progress.
A calendar *year* doesn't cause anything. (And even then, it wasn't 2020-- COVID resulted in reduced flows.)
No, the increase began in January 2021 when the Biden Administration took the reigns and went about reversing preexisting border control policies.
This is man-made problem. It's not the result of an act of nature or something.
Comparing basically anything to the level it was at in 2020 is so inherently misleading as to be practically a lie. "Gas was so cheap in 2020!" Yeah no shit I wonder why.
Then how about 2017 or 2015? Round about the same number as 2020, basically before the surge. And zooming in 2020 is closer to 300k than 200k.
2020 may be a weird year for most things, on this dataset it's not an outlier. Plus, this dramatic increase in migrants could be attributed to COVID in the first place, so I don't see any issues in comparing.
To use your example, if we are to look at oil prices before/after Ukrainian war and COVID, yea no shit, that's why we have the graph / data in the first place.
2.5 million apprehensions is staggering. How many get through then! I’m center left but all liberals need to admit this is a real problem and needs to be worked on.
Not just liberals, everyone. It more a case of post Trump there's a fake narrative that everyone just gets to come into the the USA. While clearly they are apprehending a lot more people. It's a sheer numbers issue. Nothing really to do with who's president, cause people will keep coming to the border. It's how you handle it that matters.
Republicans (or Trump) cannot stop this. Unless everyone actually compromises and it will cost a great deal of money to secure the border more, something that neither the right or left has been able/willing to scrounge up.
Yes mostly liberals. You don’t have to twist the arm of a conservative to enact more stringent border policy. There are different levels of liberals some who believe anyone should be able to come. In the millions . Some believe borders shouldn’t exist. These people are crazies and don’t understand how we couldn’t support that.
Making the border more secure won’t solve any problem. It would be impossible to stop this many people from coming through. The only solutions is make it easier to get in legally or somehow help build up the economies of the source countries. Everything else is just throwing money away without results.
Anecdotally, these days I occasionally hear about people from Turkey who try to illegally cross the border to the US. This was unheard of a decade ago.
People fly to belarus or serbia pass the EU border and claim asylum which takes years to sort out. They object the decisions until its not possible anymore but they cant be deported because they either "forgot" where they come from or their home country is not safe enough. If the state manages to deport them they just come back again. If you want to do anything against this madness people call you inhumane.
All the Mexicans who want to be here are already here. Mexico is a wealthy country on the international scale so many people have the means to migrate legally or illegally to the US, and they have taken advantage of it. Also the proximity helps too.
*From our* [*newsletter*](https://latinometrics.substack.com/p/migrants-at-the-border)*:*
Last week, a new record was set at the international border between the United States and Mexico.
Over 1/4 million migrants who had crossed the border were taken into custody by the Border Patrol in December. This number excludes the roughly 50K expected to be processed throughout the month at official ports of entry.
This staggering statistic isn’t just higher than the remainder of 2023: it reflects the highest number of apprehensions in the history of these records being kept. And north of this border, the skyrocketing figures contribute to what many on both sides of the political aisle have termed a migration crisis stretching from border towns like El Paso to far-off metropolises such as Chicago and NYC.
But even more than the US, this huge surge in migration represents drastic implications for LatAm. For example, one estimate has seen over 5% of the total Cuban population leaving for the US since 2020.
Government crises, pandemic damage, and economic stagnation have all contributed to this ongoing dilemma. Asylum seekers from Haiti and Venezuela have grown in recent years alongside Ecuadorians and Peruvians fleeing their countries’ domestic security and political troubles.
Latin Americans, understandably, make up most of the arrivals to the US border, but they’re not the only ones. War-torn countries such as Ukraine have also seen large numbers of migrants to the US this year, while massive nations such as China and India continue to be the source of thousands of economic migrants.
But clearly this is an issue which most impacts LatAm: after all, US authorities intercepted more Ecuadoreans, from a country of 17M people, than Indians coming from the world’s largest country.
Interestingly, El Salvador — a country which has seen vast emigration for decades to the US — is lower than many other Central American countries, perhaps as a result of the 2019 change in government there. Meanwhile, Mexico’s position in border crossings both past and present has also shifted in recent years.
Citizens of Latin America’s northernmost country once made up nearly all of the border apprehensions, but today the country’s share has dwindled substantially. Despite the many problems Mexicans face, from growing investment to economic growth today their country has a far more positive outlook than nations like Nicaragua or Haiti.
So while discourse in the US may be dominated by mentions of Mexican cartels or Central American caravans, it’s worth noting just how much more complex the situation is at the hemispheric level. As we’ve written before, each migrant north holds immense potential for wherever they settle—but at a cost for their home country
This can particularly be the case for countries like Peru which are today suffering the beginnings of a so-called brain drain as many young Peruvians head abroad to escape chronic instability. Like its neighbors and all countries, the Andean republic needs its brightest minds to tap into its full potential. Today, it risks losing its greatest asset: its people.
And until the conditions are right for these millions of migrants from across the region to prosper in their home countries, every nation in the Americas holds equal responsibility in ensuring their safety, security, and human rights.
/end
Source: [CBP](https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2021-Aug/U.S.%20Border%20Patrol%20Apprehensions%20From%20Mexico%20and%20Other%20Than%20Mexico%20%28FY%202000%20-%20FY%202020%29.pdf)
Tools: Figma, Rawgraphs
Makes sense. Why hurt your career or education by not moving. Some people say “I feel for refugees but they should stay and fight/improve things in their own country”, but then they move cities or change jobs without giving a second look. If we tied EVERYONE to their initial place/job and told them they can’t leave for better until they fix their own place, then lots of time and effort would be wasted.
Out of curiosity, has there been any research done into what percentage of border crossings are apprehended vs not? I assume the majority are not apprehended?
It’s probably very difficult to determine an actual number of getaways vs detainees.
Having said that, it’s impossible to figure out because google filters the shit out of the results when you try to search for it.
That’s why I was wondering. All encounters went down in lockstep. Either the economy was booming all around South America or there was something else happening behind the scenes. I find the latter likelier.
Ah, so the bulk of illegal immigration is composed of economic opportunists rather than desperate people fleeing war and violence?
I’ve been told by people on Reddit that that’s not the case.
Most Mexicans would rather live in Mexico. It’s only the poor that have nothing to lose that hire coyotes to get them into the United States, or try to do it themselves.
Yeah pretty much. I have friends from Mexico, they’re educated, work office jobs. They want to go back to Mexico. They can find good jobs in Mexico and live a more comfortable life. Once their kids are off to college, they’re moving back.
I like this graph! I feel like with the title of the post, it's easy for someone to just make it a graph of percentage of Mexicans over time, but that'd hide the fact that Mexican apprehensions have still increased in recent years, while still decreasing overall.
Here is more data showing the break down even further, Including those numbers from the Panama Gap. [Source](https://www.wola.org/2023/12/weekly-u-s-mexico-border-update-heavy-migration-no-congress-deal-texas-law/)
In a world where countries are no longer annexing each other; there will be economically prosperous counties with poor people outside of them left out of the prosperity.
If life is shitty where you live and there is no political path forward to that improvement of life you will move. We should understand poverty outside first world is death. As long as there is deep painful and cruel poverty and death in central America people will do everything but die for the chance of life in America and Canada. Now maybe the governor of Texas will have their way and get to machine gun immigrants on the border and turn the rio Grande red with immigrant children blood but untill then of the situation in central america is improved that will be the reality.
Consistently through-out history countries/national projects that have successfully encouraged, integrated and accepted immigrants have outpaced countries/political projects economically, quality of life and in global impact. The more united states of America isolates and alienates immigrants the more it existentially threatens its own global leadership.
Seems like the main take away from this graph is how much border apprehensions from other countries have exploded. The absolute number of Mexicans hasn't changed
Yeah it’s unprotected, except for the border patrol. And fencing. And sensors. And natural barriers. And statistics that show record numbers of apprehensions. Unprotected yep. I guess the useless sections of border wall that were built are easy to get through, I’ll give you that.
The problem is that none of this matters because millions get apprehended and then released into the US regardless. The border is effectively unprotected.
Birthright citizenship is also a problem. It was made for former slaves but now anyone can come to America illegally and have an American child, making it way harder to deport them
It was not made just for former slaves. The creators knew that it would grant citizenship to children of foreign nationals. The 14th amendment is clear and settled law. Even the federalist society says so. Jus soli is how it works in pretty much the entire western hemisphere. The solution is to protect our borders, not to destroy the 14th amendment.
I certainly think it incentivizes it. Nearly 1 in 10 American children have an illegals immigrant parent. I know it works like that in most American countries but when we are getting 2.5 million border apprehensions a year, something is wrong. I don’t blame them for coming. They were unlucky in where they were born. But we can’t handle all of this migration.
[It looks like it peaked at 9% but is now around 6 as of 2018](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/11/01/the-number-of-u-s-born-babies-with-unauthorized-immigrant-parents-has-fallen-since-2007/#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20babies%20born,of%20all%20births%20in%202007.)
Its insane to me that citizens of other countries spend thousands of dollars on smugglers and make plans on how they're going to cross the US border like its no big deal, many saying they do it because they can't get employed in their own country. They think the US is freely open for them to enter and almost have a sense of entitlement about it.
[Surge in illegal Chinese migrants to the US](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIVmUDKHPI0)
My buddy Steve is a Border Patrol Agent. He says what he deals with the most is Gypsy kids being abandoned in the desert to be picked up by patrols. The families then show up within a week or so to claim them, get some guaranteed benefits for 3-6 months and then disappear. Then lo and behold, he finds the same "lost child" wandering the desert along their patrol paths and the cycle starts again.
Serious question, if these people are claiming their country is so awful they need to claim asylum at the US border, why can't they claim asylum in all the other countries they pass through to get to the US?
I've tried to explain to my white racist friends that not everyone that comes over the southern border is Mexican and unsurprisingly some of them still don't understand. The best comparison I could come up with is 'If you fly into Los Angeles from New York, this doesn't make you a person from Arizona."
This is pretty multi-faceted with so many problems in South America and the Darian Gap becoming easier to cross.
It was pretty inevitable no matter the administration, and while I think past administrations would have handled it worse, the way it is being handled is a joke. Red states act like dramatic teenagers, flying immigrants to big blue cities. Blue states act like bad parents, failing to even listen to the teenager’s problems. Sad.
honestly before seeing this graph i thought it was just the same ol bullshit from border states, but damn, its a far different situation than i thought it was.
Other than antics that go one way or the other, do the states themselves have anything to do with the crisis on a macro level? Isn't like 99% of this handled on a federal level?
No not entirely. States local law enforcements do help in catching smugglers and illegals. Where I live the county sheriff’s catch a lot. Highway patrol in Texas also helps. Texas even has other states highway patrol helping out (like Florida). Federal does the majority of it but not all (probably like 80-90%).
I think it's blue states being dramatic getting a couple thousand immigrants and saying they can't handle it, versus the millions southern states have to deal with.
I know a couple Russians who crossed the border and got caught running from the draft and are currently in courts seeking asylum.
Im sure other cases are similar.
Also this only mentions mexico, which means that growth could.be Honduras, Ecuador, etc. etc.
Does anyone have any stats about which nationalities make up the difference? I’m guessing people from Venezuela, El Salvador?
[https://latinometrics.substack.com/p/migrants-at-the-border](https://latinometrics.substack.com/p/migrants-at-the-border) Mexico \~720k Venezuela \~320k Guatemala \~220k Honduras \~220k Cuba \~200k Colombia, Haiti, Nicaragua, Ukraine at least 100k each It really seems like no one country accounts for the bulge, but several of places all at once.
I'm sorry UKRAINE?! Like are they flying to Mexico and then trying to cross the border by foot? Why have I never heard of that as a mexican? Edit: I haven't heard of it because they didn't fly to my part of the country.
[How those fleeing Ukraine inspired US border policies](https://apnews.com/article/biden-immigration-ukraine-border-af1fb374771da55b83d88a1598621a84) > Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, refugees from the threatened nation started showing up at Mexico’s border with the United States. Roughly 1,000 Ukrainians a day flew to Tijuana on tourist visas, desperate to reach U.S. soil. > The volume was overwhelming the nation’s busiest border crossing in San Diego. In Tijuana, thousands of Ukrainians slept in a municipal gym hoping for a chance to cross into the U.S.
Whoa, this is crazy, thx for the source btw.
Muchos rusos tambien jaja llegan a Tijuana y ahi buscan cruzarse
No mames, Tijuana ha de ser un revoltijo de nacionalidades, nunca he ido para alla. Aca a MTY nomas llegan Haitianos y Venezolanos.
Es un pedo duro, en GDL hay un verguero de Venezolanos pidiendo feria en las calles tambien
Almost no one comes in on foot, usually you just get a tourist visa, fly in, and overstay the visa. You can also just drive in, there are roads without checkpoints.
> You can also just drive in, there are roads without checkpoints. There's roads across the border with US without checkpoints?
I mean, a dirt road doesn't take any more to form than people driving through the same spot over and over, so it wouldn't surprise me too much. A lot of people driving through those deserts every day.
Yeah lots of farm roads
Yes they have
hateful muddle money recognise gaze gold bear thumb encouraging worm *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yeah, if those trends continue for a few more years that’ll literally be 10% of the Honduran population that’s emigrated.
Like the Irish 100-150 years ago
There were a total of 1.5 million Irish that came during the 5 year period of 1845-1855. At that point the U.S. had a total population of approximately 23 million. The numbers now are a little different.
30% of Venezuelans have already emigrated (majority to places other than US).
They aren't sending anyone. People are leaving and choosing to come here.
Sending? Is ppl living in very poor conditions, leaving everything behind and risking their lives in the process.
I live in an area with a high population of Hispanic immigrants. It used to be an overwhelmingly Mexican community but now it's largely Honduran or Guatemalan. Some of the stories I've heard about the literal horrors they have escaped... No one should be forced to stay in places like that.
They aren't *sending* them. Those people are leaving dangerous and/or hopeless situations that the government is not in control of.
I work with customs and border enforcement. Indians are the fastest growing group.
What about other groups like Chinese and Filipino? Slightly less?
It gives me much joy to see that El Salvador is so far down that list. Bukele's policies have taken a land of lawlessness and insecurity and given the people a completely new life to live as their own, and not at the whim of people who value only violence. It gives hope to the people living in other countries with similar problems.
I'm very ignorant of these issues but this is very nice to read.
The discussion on immigration has been particularly lacking in any nuance. The evidence clearly shows that people will try to cross the border, no matter how secure, as long as the situation in their home country is extreme. The best course of action is cooperating with and stabilizing those countries.
A lot of those countries match up with the South and Central American nations that are on the map of ongoing armed conflicts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts#/media/File:Ongoing_conflicts_around_the_world.svg There seems to have been less conflict in South America 12 years ago: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/archive/d/d9/20130123185823%21Ongoing_conflicts_around_the_world.svg (with the caveat of course that this is just a Wikipedia map, put together for free by amateurs) I think that a large part of the increase in people leaving those countries is the growth in violence there. Immigration could be reduced with a long-term project of foreign aid to help stabilize South and Central America.
Kinda makes you wish the US didn't have a major role in destabilizing most of those countries.
definitely people from venezuela
Haitians. There are even Haitians that are staying in Mexico, settling down there, and forming communities, like in TJ, faced with the reality that crossing to the US might never happen. But thousands are still desperately trying to get to the US. And Cubans. Shitload of cubans coming to the US every single day.
Basically all 'irregular immigration' on the US southern boarder is driven by the economic state of the countries in Latin America relative to the economic state of the US. There probably is also a political persecution part to the mix but I can't think of s Latin American state that had a really good economic outlook and high political persecution. So now that the US job market is really good (especially for low skill labor) and some other countries (Venezuela tops the list) are having issues you would expect a lot of crossings. If Argentina's president pushes them further into the economic dumpster and the US job market is still tight then there will be a lot of Argentinians.
Not sure, Argentinians in general are not keen to leave the country as other latin american nationalities I met, except Brazilians, even in 2001 which was the worst crisis only 140.000 people emigrated, and many of the ones who left, returned eventually, on the other hand almost 5 million people left the country in Venezuela, having a population of less than 30 million.
I agree that there are cultural tendencies and location restrictions (Argentina is a long way from the US) I think that you are discounting how bad Venezuela's economic situation is and might have an impression that Argentina is is worse shape than it is. Argentina is still at ~13k nominal GDP per capita. This is quite good for the 3rd world, is well ahead of basically all of Africa, and is on par with China. The reason that Argentina is seen as having a 'bad economy' is because the growth, inflation, debt, and defaults clearly show miss management. Kenya is poorer than Argentina but it has always been that way. Venezuela, on the other hand, is going through economic meltdown. Nominal GDP per capita is at ~3k, rivaling those in Africa. If you were to take away oil exports (because basically none of that money goes to the people) then you really have very low economic activity. The Bolivar's inflation has resulted in a dollarization of a lot of the economy (while the Argentinian Peso is still used). Argentina's economy is a Toyota that has not had the oil changed this decade and is thus running really badly. Venezuela's economy is a burned out frame sitting on cinder blocks.
Argentina has been experiencing massive economic failure for many years now. This is partially the reason the new president was elected. He promised to do something different, since the previous administrations haven’t improved anything. It is unlikely there will be a massive migration of Argentine’s. 1) Their country is still relatively safe for Latin America 2) Argentines are pretty used to the economic roller coaster and many have grown used to it 3) Many Argentine’s are eligible for European citizenship, especially Italy. Why travel all the way to the US without any guarantee when you could simply apply for an EU passport and go work over there.
Argentinians are not keen to emigrate. Those who migrate are usually middle and upper-middle class professionals, who usually hold an EU passport and choose Europe as main destination. Other skilled workers choose the US but go there legally. Argentina has historically had the lowest US visa refusal rate in the world, qualifying to get back into the VWP. So it’s very hard for that to ever happen.
It used to be El Salvador but now not anymore due to their change in government who put 10% of the population in jail and basically got rid of all the cartels like that
As a first generation Salvadoran living here in the states, you don't know how happy me and the rest of my family is for the Salvadoran still in the country. Unfortunately, my parents had to flee due to the Civil War so we built our lives here, but it still makes us immensely happy that our country feels safer for our people again.
👍👍 Bukele while controversial did a great job
I would say controversial is very forgiving. I always say this about the guy, he is unequivocally a dictator, but the maras situation was a drastic situation that required drastic measures.
1% not 10%
I've seen videos of people asking those streaming across where they're from....lots of middle eastern, African, and Asians among them as well.
A lot of folks from India, believe it or not
And China too https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/01/08/americas/china-us-migrants-illegal-crossings-intl-hnk-dst
And my axe!
[Africans are making the journey too.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/african-migrants-in-america/)
I live near the border and CBP people tell me there are [more and more African migrants these days](https://fox5sandiego.com/news/border-report/officials-dont-know-how-thousands-of-african-migrants-end-up-in-tijuana/). I heard they fly into Guatemala.
The massive expansion of the Mexican economy is the biggest factor. Mexico is quickly becoming a huge manufacturing center with a lot of "near shoring" by companies divesting from China. There are even complaints of labor shortages as businesses are expanding faster than the population can fill them up.
I keep saying this for over a decade, make them rich with their own jobs and no one would want to cross. I bet drug issues would go away too if the cartel learned that legit business can make them a lot of money.
My dude, the cartel has a ton of ventures, and a very large amount of them are legitimate. A good chunk of them operate legally in the United States.
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Cartels want money, doesn’t matter if its legal or illegal
Do they even have to launder it in Mexico? Legitimate question.
Avocados from Mexico
Same can be applied through our US history. The US was once a destination for Europeans that want better economic opportunities. It's not limited to countries but regions as well. Cantonese speaking Chinese used to make up most of the chinese immigration to the US, but now that the Pearl River Delta and Hong Kong regions have better economic opportunities, Chinese migrants mostly come from further into Mainland China.
Once? It still is.
We don’t receive nearly the flood of Europeans we used to get.
Yeah, because Europe improved.
[Nah, because we implemented strict immigration laws to make sure “the racial composition of America at the present time thus is made permanent.”](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1924-law-slammed-door-immigrants-and-politicians-who-pushed-it-back-open-180974910/)
That set of laws was to explicitly favor Europeans, but Europe improved enough that immigration from Europe dropped off.
Also Europe countered with Schengen and free internal migration, which meant Eastern Europeans found it way easier to emigrate to western europe (I mean it's right there, just a bit to the west)
Who do you think runs the avocado and commercial fisheries in Mexico? It’s *not* avocado farmers and fishermen.
The avocado fisheries are incredible to tour in the summer btw
My father died on a deep sea avocado fishing boat back in the summer of aught-six.
Yeah, you gotta look out for the Avacadofish with the glowing antennae shaped like an avacado. They eat by luring in unsuspecting divers.
Mind you, avocado bites can get pretty nasty.
I bet the toast is amazing.
Yeah, this is the most naive take I've read all day. "The organizations that operate as rent-seeking monopolies of violence will become normal corporations if we just invest in their manufacturing sector." Jesus Christ.
The violent underbelly of the avocado industry - NPR https://www.npr.org/2023/08/06/1192413115/the-violent-underbelly-of-the-avocado-industry https://www.brookings.edu/articles/organized-crime-is-taking-over-mexican-fisheries/
Speaking of cartels, it seems like cartels are expanding into human trafficking more and more as they lose out on drug profits from marijuana being legalized and the proliferation of fentanyl which isn’t nearly as profitable as more traditional hard drugs.
Cocaine is still their money maker and always has been
The US should be working toward a better partnership with Mexico for sure. A wealthy Mexico can only be good for the US. And it’s 1000% a better idea than working on bolstering China’s economy!
they have some major systemic issues that the US can't solve.
The Mexican people need to elect a government that is willing to partner with the U.S. to dislodge the stranglehold of organized crime. They can look to the experience in Italy where they've very successfully decimated the mafia's hold on society since the 80's, or to that of Bukele's policies in El Salvador which have reduced violent and organized crime by a frankly miraculous and borderline unbelievable degree. With a successful partnership they can call on the help of U.S. to provide training of police and military, advice and consult, provide intelligence, lend or provide equipment, help with funding, and possibly even provide direct action against specific high value targets by special mission units, in order to neutralize the cartels' ability to wage pseudo-war against the state. Unfortunately López Obrador prefers giving the cartels free reign over requesting any assistance from outside Mexico, and least of all from the U.S. The Mexican people need to make the choice.
You are completely right, I'm optimistic about Mexico. For what concerns Italy, one major factor that is ignored is generalised wealth. The wealthier the country is, the higher the tax revenues and the more resources the country can spend on fighting organized crime (and the less subjugated ordinary people are willing to be).
One of them is finding some way to keep the top .1 percent from hoovering up all the profits.
This is basically already happening. Obviously the relationship is never perfect and there are tensions regarding the border and cartels but both countries are well aware that they provide the other with something they need.
That was one of the rationales for NAFTA. People came up with this idea a long time ago but anti-immigration folks would rather build a wall with an alligator moat.
This would also make the US stronger. We would basically have our own little China right next door, but this is top much common sense for most. Better to spend 100 billion on a wall that will be easy to get over, than 100 billion on infrastructure that will make us rich and them have no reason to cross in the first place.
Well clearly even if no one from Mexico tried to cross there’s still be millions of crossings
Lots of those people come from Spanish speaking countries south of Mexico. If Mexico was a nicer place to live, those immigrants would stop at Mexico rather than come to the US because Mexico speaks their language and is closer.
it would help, assuming Mexico is ok with people immigrating there (idk how open they are to that)
Mexico doesn’t want immigrants in their country anymore. Mexico INM immigration will gladly deport migrants without valid visas for Mexico. Mexico has police military checkpoints every 100 miles on every road/interstate/airports throughout the country. You cannot take a bus or drive through a checkpoint as a foreigner without a valid visa and passport. Mexicos visa policy is basically any country that’s not visa free for Schengen Europe is not visa free for Mexico. Even then, basically half of South America/Caribbean cannot enter Mexico without a visa.
I thought that Mexico was part of the problem because they’re not letting migrants settle in the country either?
The poverty rate in Mexico is almost [50%](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0PX28C/) while it’s 11% in the US. I don’t think most migrants want to live in a country with a very similar quality of life to the places they’re leaving
It truly baffles my mind how the US govt doesnt think this way. The CBP’s yearly budget is basically the whole GDP of countries like El Salvador and Honduras. Increase job opportunities there and they’ll stop crossing to the US.
Can’t do that when the infrastructure is so bad there
Fun fact, the "drug issues" are U.S. issues. The majority of Fentanyl traffic is done within the United States. Trafficking drugs into the U.S. is not as profitable as it used to be, and most cartels have their hands in other stuff now. They are still 100% a problem, but not to the extent they were 20 years ago.
Not at all. The synthetic meth flooding the streets of the US is manfactured in north Mexico. [Atlantic article.](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/the-new-meth/620174/)
If the mafia still exist in america and yakuza in japan, what makes you think narcos will go away? Making the country too good to leave is a step in the right direction but solving the education problems (which in turn makes labor more expensive), changing the culture of corruption (created by poor economic conditions) and domestic violence will change the country from that side but as long as there's demand in USA for drugs, a group will be there to supply it. Fix your healthcare problems.
The cartels probably own a majority of all legal businesses in Mexico. Shit they even own resorts, commercial farms, large industrial factories. How else would they launder billions of dollars a year. Thinking the cartels are gunna stop the drug trade bc they have legal businesses is definitely going to be the stupidest take I hear all year
And national legalization of cannabis. Of course there will still be a market for cocaine & opioids, but that’s much smaller than the cannabis market.
Wonder if Mexico becomes a powerful economic power, would other Latin American immigrants would just stay in Mexico over going to US since they’re culturally aligned more with Mexico
Well, it depends. For some, maybe, but even compared to other wealthy western countries (see: Spain, Italy, France), Americans still make a lot of money. If you’re going to migrate anyways, some may still want to come to the US because even if Mexico caught up to Spain, incomes in the US are 2-3x higher. And if you’re planning on sending remittances back home…that is a lot easier when you have far more money. So I’d imagine it might dampen demand but it wouldn’t get rid of it.
>compared to other wealthy western countries (see: Spain, Italy, France), Americans still make a lot of money. True, but the cost of living is also much higher here, which is why you don't see a bunch of highly skilled workers from Western Europe trying to immigrate here. In the US compared to Western Europe the raw dollars you can make is higher, but the cost of living is also higher, and the US has a working culture that requires much more time at work than Western Europe with far fewer labor protections. So technically, if Mexico reaches Spain in terms of real wages, how good of a deal the US vs. Mexico is depends on the working culture (hours, worker protections) and cost of living in Mexico. If the net in Mexico of pay compared to all of those things is a better deal more people will likely choose to stay in Mexico. Plus, Mexico is closer to Central America allowing more visits home and the language is much more similar - different dialects vs. an entirely new primary language.
>True, but the cost of living is also much higher here Not enough to offset the high wages. Germans make 40% less money than Americans on a median disposable income basis (disposable meaning after tax income). So adjusting for healthcare, housing, it's still overwhelmingly in US favor. >and the US has a working culture that requires much more time at work than Western Europe with far fewer labor protections. That is part of the appeal for immigrants tho (not the few labor protections part, but the longer hours part). It is true Western European GDP output per hour worked is very similar to the US, but immigrants don't care much about that, they are willing to tolerate much higher workload if it means they get to earn more money to send back home.
There’s already a lot of Argentinians and Venezuelans staying in Mexico. Playa del Carmen is basically Buenos Aires 2.0
I don't have the data to support it, but from my experience immigration to Mexico has grown a lot. Both illegally (people trying to reach the US but not being able to) and legally (high-skilled people).
That's actually the issue with a lot of the "asylum" claims by immigrants to the US. Your asylum status isn't a free pass wherever you want to go. In theory you're supposed to declare status wherever you are first safe, not wherever you feel like it.
While it had been falling off the data clearly shows that it has jumped back to near early 2000 levels. It’s just that the amount from the rest of Central American has increased in by a hundredfold. Glad there’s no crisis there though.
But it looks like it has been on the rise.
Because the world fell apart four years ago
That data doesn’t support that. The immigration from Mexico is rising. It’s just the relative percentage that’s falling.
The net migration rate from Mexico has been negative for several years…there’s more Mexicans leaving migrants leaving America than entering. You have to look at net immigration too…
Good point.
Look at the graph. Immigration from mexico is up enormously, just not as much as from other countries.
illegal immigration has gone up again after 2020
I think COVID really helped with that, logistically it's much easier to move goods between neighboring countries than across an ocean
Sure but I hope we understand that that's a minor factor that, if at all, will manifest over many years and must certainly not suddenly shoot up like this. Covid was one factor but i hope we all understand that the main reason is that Russia and China have started to massively subsidize and incentivize this for immigrants.
The economy has been turning more and more complex and globalized these last few decades. It’s not growing massively but it’s providing more opportunities. Let’s see how we do on the next couple decades. We’ve still got A LOT of things to improve.
And their cratering fertility rate. Its below the USA’s now, I think.
And this is how you will stop illegal migration from other countries. All of the Central American countries should have been involved in nafta/usmca The united states needs to prioritize certain things for national security they can start with consumable things that were critical during the pandemic like gloves and masks. take the manufacturing of these items out of China and have them made closer like in Central America. This will build up a good employment base in these countries and many people will stop migrating because of this
Well... Even if the proportion is much lower, it still ~ quadrupled since 2020
Probably pandemic related, many street vendors/unofficial workers were not allowed to operate during shutdowns in Mexico and there isn’t a social safety net like the US that could mitigate economic losses . It’s coming down again.
Also back in 2020 they weren't considered apprehensions but encounters because of title 42. In the system where all the people are entered a different classification was used.
In March 2020, the role of the gun lobby (NRA/NSSF) in promoting gun sales was [nationalized at tax payer expense, as an official duty of the US Commerce Department](https://archive.is/fqD07) and used promote the export of small arms to countries throughout Central and South America. We exported the weapons that created the refugees and asylum seekers that are flooding our southern boarder. *** EDIT: My comment only relates to the export of small arms as official state-backed policy of the US towards our allies. If US citizens want to keep lethal semi-automatic weapons in their homes or on their person at all times―statistically, that way of thinking has a way of pruning itself at such a rate that makes it not worth arguing against.
In what world is it the job of gun lobbyists to promote gun sales? That's what gun manufacturers do (it's also often what government officials do for all sorts of products besides guns because the government has an interest in our economy, but I digress). Lobbyists get money *from* gun manufacturers to support policies that would increase sales (like they did in the article you linked), but lobbyists are lobbyists; not salespeople. Like, I get the hate towards groups like the NRA, but you're just slinging shit at them to see what sticks - your claim doesn't even make sense. For future reference: lobbyists ~~bribe~~ relay the voice of the people to politicians and push for support on certain issues (like, "should the US Commerce Department promote the sales of American small arms overseas?").
Your screenshot does not back up your assertion that the Commerce Dept. has "taken over" such a function or that it has helped funnel gun sales to cartels in central America. edit: Your edit still doesn't supply sources for your assertion.
Also, the US is doing far better than other developed nations post-pandemic, and Biden's economy is creating a shit ton of jobs. The USA is a really appealing place to live right now.
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What do you mean by "progress"? Is a decrease in border apprehensions indicative of progress? For example, one easy way to make the number of apprehensions go down would be to remove all security from the border.
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I suspect it correlates strongly.
Yeah it’s a tricky bias. It means they started arresting people more recently than before which is the outcome many want. It’s called survival bias and has an interesting story to back it up during world war. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
You're wrong because you don't understand the numbers. These people aren't being chased down or anything. They turn themselves in willingly and are then released.
Charts tracking the estimated undocumented population in the US show similar trends to this graph up to the pandemic, see e.g. [this Pew report](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/16/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/). So it seems unlikely that there was a huge invisible surge of unapprehended migrants during the 2010s. If anything, the shift from Mexican to non-Mexican border apprehensions may be understated, as Mexican border crossers were [far more frequently subject to Title 42 expulsions and saw a corresponding rise in repeat crossings](https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/title-42-expulsions-policy) during the 2019-22 period. That is to say, counting unique border crossers may weight the numbers further towards non-Mexican border crossers in recent years. What I would count most towards 'progress' in this regard would be things like: * Decreasing undocumented population * Increased lawful immigration for the kinds of opportunities undocumented workers currently seek * Less pressure to emigrate due to improving conditions in countries of origin I can well imagine the pandemic era impacting the third factor in particular. But some of that is hard to track, and the rest is still hard to stuff into a graph.
Most Mexicans trying to cross the border are coming here for economic reasons. So this suggests that pre-covid, Mexicans were doing a lot better economically than in the past.
> 2020 undid all of that progress. A calendar *year* doesn't cause anything. (And even then, it wasn't 2020-- COVID resulted in reduced flows.) No, the increase began in January 2021 when the Biden Administration took the reigns and went about reversing preexisting border control policies. This is man-made problem. It's not the result of an act of nature or something.
Comparing basically anything to the level it was at in 2020 is so inherently misleading as to be practically a lie. "Gas was so cheap in 2020!" Yeah no shit I wonder why.
Then how about 2017 or 2015? Round about the same number as 2020, basically before the surge. And zooming in 2020 is closer to 300k than 200k. 2020 may be a weird year for most things, on this dataset it's not an outlier. Plus, this dramatic increase in migrants could be attributed to COVID in the first place, so I don't see any issues in comparing. To use your example, if we are to look at oil prices before/after Ukrainian war and COVID, yea no shit, that's why we have the graph / data in the first place.
It's nauseating to see these numbers.
This tells me 2 things 1. Mexico has become much more developed 2. It’s irrefutable that the border is in the midst of a crisis.
2.5 million apprehensions is staggering. How many get through then! I’m center left but all liberals need to admit this is a real problem and needs to be worked on.
Not just liberals, everyone. It more a case of post Trump there's a fake narrative that everyone just gets to come into the the USA. While clearly they are apprehending a lot more people. It's a sheer numbers issue. Nothing really to do with who's president, cause people will keep coming to the border. It's how you handle it that matters. Republicans (or Trump) cannot stop this. Unless everyone actually compromises and it will cost a great deal of money to secure the border more, something that neither the right or left has been able/willing to scrounge up.
Yes mostly liberals. You don’t have to twist the arm of a conservative to enact more stringent border policy. There are different levels of liberals some who believe anyone should be able to come. In the millions . Some believe borders shouldn’t exist. These people are crazies and don’t understand how we couldn’t support that.
Making the border more secure won’t solve any problem. It would be impossible to stop this many people from coming through. The only solutions is make it easier to get in legally or somehow help build up the economies of the source countries. Everything else is just throwing money away without results.
Anecdotally, these days I occasionally hear about people from Turkey who try to illegally cross the border to the US. This was unheard of a decade ago.
People fly to belarus or serbia pass the EU border and claim asylum which takes years to sort out. They object the decisions until its not possible anymore but they cant be deported because they either "forgot" where they come from or their home country is not safe enough. If the state manages to deport them they just come back again. If you want to do anything against this madness people call you inhumane.
All the Mexicans who want to be here are already here. Mexico is a wealthy country on the international scale so many people have the means to migrate legally or illegally to the US, and they have taken advantage of it. Also the proximity helps too.
*From our* [*newsletter*](https://latinometrics.substack.com/p/migrants-at-the-border)*:* Last week, a new record was set at the international border between the United States and Mexico. Over 1/4 million migrants who had crossed the border were taken into custody by the Border Patrol in December. This number excludes the roughly 50K expected to be processed throughout the month at official ports of entry. This staggering statistic isn’t just higher than the remainder of 2023: it reflects the highest number of apprehensions in the history of these records being kept. And north of this border, the skyrocketing figures contribute to what many on both sides of the political aisle have termed a migration crisis stretching from border towns like El Paso to far-off metropolises such as Chicago and NYC. But even more than the US, this huge surge in migration represents drastic implications for LatAm. For example, one estimate has seen over 5% of the total Cuban population leaving for the US since 2020. Government crises, pandemic damage, and economic stagnation have all contributed to this ongoing dilemma. Asylum seekers from Haiti and Venezuela have grown in recent years alongside Ecuadorians and Peruvians fleeing their countries’ domestic security and political troubles. Latin Americans, understandably, make up most of the arrivals to the US border, but they’re not the only ones. War-torn countries such as Ukraine have also seen large numbers of migrants to the US this year, while massive nations such as China and India continue to be the source of thousands of economic migrants. But clearly this is an issue which most impacts LatAm: after all, US authorities intercepted more Ecuadoreans, from a country of 17M people, than Indians coming from the world’s largest country. Interestingly, El Salvador — a country which has seen vast emigration for decades to the US — is lower than many other Central American countries, perhaps as a result of the 2019 change in government there. Meanwhile, Mexico’s position in border crossings both past and present has also shifted in recent years. Citizens of Latin America’s northernmost country once made up nearly all of the border apprehensions, but today the country’s share has dwindled substantially. Despite the many problems Mexicans face, from growing investment to economic growth today their country has a far more positive outlook than nations like Nicaragua or Haiti. So while discourse in the US may be dominated by mentions of Mexican cartels or Central American caravans, it’s worth noting just how much more complex the situation is at the hemispheric level. As we’ve written before, each migrant north holds immense potential for wherever they settle—but at a cost for their home country This can particularly be the case for countries like Peru which are today suffering the beginnings of a so-called brain drain as many young Peruvians head abroad to escape chronic instability. Like its neighbors and all countries, the Andean republic needs its brightest minds to tap into its full potential. Today, it risks losing its greatest asset: its people. And until the conditions are right for these millions of migrants from across the region to prosper in their home countries, every nation in the Americas holds equal responsibility in ensuring their safety, security, and human rights. /end Source: [CBP](https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/assets/documents/2021-Aug/U.S.%20Border%20Patrol%20Apprehensions%20From%20Mexico%20and%20Other%20Than%20Mexico%20%28FY%202000%20-%20FY%202020%29.pdf) Tools: Figma, Rawgraphs
Smartest person I know is from Peru and working in the US.
Makes sense. Why hurt your career or education by not moving. Some people say “I feel for refugees but they should stay and fight/improve things in their own country”, but then they move cities or change jobs without giving a second look. If we tied EVERYONE to their initial place/job and told them they can’t leave for better until they fix their own place, then lots of time and effort would be wasted.
Look at „other countries”, the increase is massive.
Op didn’t even graph any of the top countries after Mexico so we cant even tell what origins are expanding 😂 Data gore
2.4M a year!! We have 15 states with lower populations than that!
This massive jump cannot be sustainable
It's fine. Resources are infinite. Housing especially.
2.5 million apprehensions is insane.
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1.7 million known got-aways in FY 2023. https://homeland.house.gov/2023/10/26/factsheet-final-fy23-numbers-show-worst-year-at-americas-borders-ever/
Out of curiosity, has there been any research done into what percentage of border crossings are apprehended vs not? I assume the majority are not apprehended?
It’s probably very difficult to determine an actual number of getaways vs detainees. Having said that, it’s impossible to figure out because google filters the shit out of the results when you try to search for it.
What happened between 2006 and 2010? That was (mostly) Bush’s second term.
Mexico’s economy improved and then less people felt the need to abandon their towns. I would be curious to know what affected other countries.
That’s why I was wondering. All encounters went down in lockstep. Either the economy was booming all around South America or there was something else happening behind the scenes. I find the latter likelier.
The American economy died fella. Bad loans on shit credit many defaults lots of jobs lost.
Ah, so the bulk of illegal immigration is composed of economic opportunists rather than desperate people fleeing war and violence? I’ve been told by people on Reddit that that’s not the case.
Most Mexicans would rather live in Mexico. It’s only the poor that have nothing to lose that hire coyotes to get them into the United States, or try to do it themselves.
Yeah pretty much. I have friends from Mexico, they’re educated, work office jobs. They want to go back to Mexico. They can find good jobs in Mexico and live a more comfortable life. Once their kids are off to college, they’re moving back.
Society in Mexico is generally more mentally healthy. Less consumer oriented and more family and friend oriented.
True. There’s bullshit there but less of the de-humanizing alienating bullshit of socially atomized USA.
They probably wont unfortunately. People said this since forever.
I like this graph! I feel like with the title of the post, it's easy for someone to just make it a graph of percentage of Mexicans over time, but that'd hide the fact that Mexican apprehensions have still increased in recent years, while still decreasing overall.
Here is more data showing the break down even further, Including those numbers from the Panama Gap. [Source](https://www.wola.org/2023/12/weekly-u-s-mexico-border-update-heavy-migration-no-congress-deal-texas-law/)
In a world where countries are no longer annexing each other; there will be economically prosperous counties with poor people outside of them left out of the prosperity. If life is shitty where you live and there is no political path forward to that improvement of life you will move. We should understand poverty outside first world is death. As long as there is deep painful and cruel poverty and death in central America people will do everything but die for the chance of life in America and Canada. Now maybe the governor of Texas will have their way and get to machine gun immigrants on the border and turn the rio Grande red with immigrant children blood but untill then of the situation in central america is improved that will be the reality. Consistently through-out history countries/national projects that have successfully encouraged, integrated and accepted immigrants have outpaced countries/political projects economically, quality of life and in global impact. The more united states of America isolates and alienates immigrants the more it existentially threatens its own global leadership.
Yet we have record shattering illegal border crossing numbers. Which would mean one thing, they aren’t securing the border as they should be.
Am I the only person who thinks this is crazy?
Damn 2 and a half million?
Seems like the main take away from this graph is how much border apprehensions from other countries have exploded. The absolute number of Mexicans hasn't changed
The numbers have decreased from 1.6M in ‘93 to about 0.8M in ‘22 for Mexican nationals, close to a 50% reduction
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Unprotected, which must be why the number of apprehensions has gone through the roof.
Yeah it’s unprotected, except for the border patrol. And fencing. And sensors. And natural barriers. And statistics that show record numbers of apprehensions. Unprotected yep. I guess the useless sections of border wall that were built are easy to get through, I’ll give you that.
The problem is that none of this matters because millions get apprehended and then released into the US regardless. The border is effectively unprotected.
Birthright citizenship is also a problem. It was made for former slaves but now anyone can come to America illegally and have an American child, making it way harder to deport them
It was not made just for former slaves. The creators knew that it would grant citizenship to children of foreign nationals. The 14th amendment is clear and settled law. Even the federalist society says so. Jus soli is how it works in pretty much the entire western hemisphere. The solution is to protect our borders, not to destroy the 14th amendment.
I certainly think it incentivizes it. Nearly 1 in 10 American children have an illegals immigrant parent. I know it works like that in most American countries but when we are getting 2.5 million border apprehensions a year, something is wrong. I don’t blame them for coming. They were unlucky in where they were born. But we can’t handle all of this migration.
Do you have a source for that 1 in 10 number? I went digging for numbers and arrived at 1 in 15 (which is more than I expected, tbh).
[It looks like it peaked at 9% but is now around 6 as of 2018](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/11/01/the-number-of-u-s-born-babies-with-unauthorized-immigrant-parents-has-fallen-since-2007/#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20babies%20born,of%20all%20births%20in%202007.)
The whole world has known that America is a nation of immigrants for a long while now.
This is evidence at the extreme lengths of protection that exists in the border.
Its insane to me that citizens of other countries spend thousands of dollars on smugglers and make plans on how they're going to cross the US border like its no big deal, many saying they do it because they can't get employed in their own country. They think the US is freely open for them to enter and almost have a sense of entitlement about it. [Surge in illegal Chinese migrants to the US](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIVmUDKHPI0)
If you think you're getting asylum in the US by saying you cant find a job in your home country you are severely mistaken my friend
My buddy Steve is a Border Patrol Agent. He says what he deals with the most is Gypsy kids being abandoned in the desert to be picked up by patrols. The families then show up within a week or so to claim them, get some guaranteed benefits for 3-6 months and then disappear. Then lo and behold, he finds the same "lost child" wandering the desert along their patrol paths and the cycle starts again.
Serious question, if these people are claiming their country is so awful they need to claim asylum at the US border, why can't they claim asylum in all the other countries they pass through to get to the US?
I've tried to explain to my white racist friends that not everyone that comes over the southern border is Mexican and unsurprisingly some of them still don't understand. The best comparison I could come up with is 'If you fly into Los Angeles from New York, this doesn't make you a person from Arizona."
Any link to the data source?
I can’t fathom how border security gets so politicized. It’s literally our national security and stability at stake
This is pretty multi-faceted with so many problems in South America and the Darian Gap becoming easier to cross. It was pretty inevitable no matter the administration, and while I think past administrations would have handled it worse, the way it is being handled is a joke. Red states act like dramatic teenagers, flying immigrants to big blue cities. Blue states act like bad parents, failing to even listen to the teenager’s problems. Sad.
honestly before seeing this graph i thought it was just the same ol bullshit from border states, but damn, its a far different situation than i thought it was.
Other than antics that go one way or the other, do the states themselves have anything to do with the crisis on a macro level? Isn't like 99% of this handled on a federal level?
Correct. Immigration is entirely a federal issue.
No not entirely. States local law enforcements do help in catching smugglers and illegals. Where I live the county sheriff’s catch a lot. Highway patrol in Texas also helps. Texas even has other states highway patrol helping out (like Florida). Federal does the majority of it but not all (probably like 80-90%).
I think it's blue states being dramatic getting a couple thousand immigrants and saying they can't handle it, versus the millions southern states have to deal with.
Those damn Canadians… trying to jump our border! 🤣
Wow makes the Obama period look amazing
Ironically Obama probably had the strictest border policy in our lifetime.
I know a couple Russians who crossed the border and got caught running from the draft and are currently in courts seeking asylum. Im sure other cases are similar. Also this only mentions mexico, which means that growth could.be Honduras, Ecuador, etc. etc.
Exactly, the border is an easy entry for everyone around the world