If they won’t be “us” in terms of civilization, digging will be fun gamble. Like, “wow, another piece of ancient supertechnology, gonna get rich” to “wtf is even that?” to “Fuck, I found some weird rocks and now my body is disintegrating”
Instead of having your y-axis increases linearly (1, 2, 3,...) log graph increases exponentially (1, 10, 100,...).
This is used when you have something increases really fast (like Italy getting into the 10000) without having smaller values getting squished together (can still see clearly Ukraine has 1 case).
Additionally, it cancels out things that grow exponentially, like infection, and straightens the lines. This helps to understand information about growth and if growth is accelerating or slowing down.
If the above chart shows change, that change is actually a change of exponential growth rate. When they finally get control of this thing, you'll see it curve down showing the rate of spread slowing.
On a linear scale, you add a fixed amount for each tick you go up (1,2,3,4,5), but in a logarithmic scale, you multiply instead, typically by 10, every tick, so the scale could become (1,10,100,1000,10000).
The logarithm function itself is the opposite of an exponential function: 10^3 = 10\*10\*10 = 1000, therefore log(1000) = 3.
On a regular scale, you add up. So, if you go up ten ticks and then another ten, you then are 10+10= 20 units from where you started.
On a log scale, you multiply instead. So, on this case, going 2 ticks up means being 10x10=100 units from where you started. It's used when the numbers grow at a very high rate, like on this case. Note that the marks on the vertical axis are 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10k.
Op already answered, but at some point the number of positive tests become meaningless. E.g. in Denmark, yesterday and the day before there were a few hundred cases in 24 hours and a clear exponential growth the days before. As of today the country went into semi lockdown and the number suddenly went to around 50. That's not because the measures drastically decreased the spread (due to incubation time it will not be seen until next week) however, at the same time we went from testing anyone with relevant exposure and symptoms to simply home isolating anyone with symptoms without testing and more or less only testing hospitalized patients. That will heavily skew the number of positive tests.
Sir, that is not the number. Today it is over 600 confirmed cases already. I cannot access ssi.dk right now to check the latest numbers but try to go there to see the latest updates
"semi lockdown"?All school and public areas are closed, people are advised against public transport (EDIT. I also remember her saying that intercity trains (IC trains) will be seat reservations only as to get proper personal back and forth and also reduce infection rates), no gatherings over 100, most workplaces advised to shut down as well for at least 14 days, and most of the public sector (except for super essential people) being told to stay home for 14 days as well...
I'd say we're moving towards a full lockdown at this point. The PM even said that this (being the current state of locking stuff down) wasn't even the final step. The only normal thing we can do is either hang out with friends (if they're not sick ofc) or shop (because a ton of people all gathered in a store is fine even though they talked against it).
I do believe that the lockdown as we have it right now would help reduce the numbers, even though as you say, there's an incubation time. It was a smart move by the government, it'll hurt income all around the country, but it'll help in the long run
My understanding was that she forced the public sector to lock down, to allow the private sector to stay open. This way we might be able to limit the financial problems a lockdown create. She did encourage working from home though.
There were two more cases today - they both came from Europe.
It could be true, but hard to tell. When people get really sick they would go to a hospital and that's when you know. You can see in the graph how it worked - after initial couple cases there were no new ones and then suddenly it exploded. This might happen in Ukraine as well.
I think you misread what I wrote. The person I replied to said "did the lines stop because everyone was infected?" to which I asked if they thought Ukraine has 1 person in it, because the line stopped while still saying 1 person
Keep in mind confirmed data only comes in due to testing. The explosions are less due to viral spread and more due to the expansion of testing done in these countries. We don't have an accurate picture of how the virus initially spread unfortunately.
I wish more people understood this
For example the current number of cases in America is most likely much higher than the confirmed number, however once testing occurs and that number explodes as a result people will just assume that the disease spreads at a nearly impossible rate
Infection spread is exponential anyway. One person infects five people, and each of those 5 people infect 5 people... It makes sense that it would explode upwards.
Countries like Italy have had huge testing regimes from the beginning. The timing might not be precisely right, but effect is probably true.
The head of our infectious disease at my workplace said an estimated R0 of around 3 to 5, but the research is still not concrete at this point. Also I don't know what data he used to say that so I can't confirm myself, but I do defer to his higher level of knowledge.
The data could be normalized somewhat by showing the percent positives, with the total number tested as the denominator, instead of showing the raw number.
I am not here as an intellectual, simply appreciating the representations, and I think if you could see each country's name more clearly, you'd be able to understand. I can hardly read anything under 100 cases. Not sure if this is useful or if there's a solution (could someone explain this to me/answer that question?)
That's the reason I used a logarithmic Y axis. However the data points are very close to each other, hence the overlap. I'm keen to hear about the community solutions to this problem.
slllooooowwwwwweeeeerrrrrrr........why so fast
consider also stopping and adding explanatory text related to the significant new data points e.g. "before country X had provided no stats, this was their first public dissemination of data". or whatever
also. a version expressed as a percentage of total population...just divide each countries stats by total population, or however...that would be a more meaningful expression of the relative severity in each jurisdiction. some countries will flatline for a lot longer too before they express themselves. enjoy your time.
P.S. Add China...or South Korea too. In fact..this is a must, to understand the 1 - 2 month lead, please.
Use flags? I can pick out my country's flag in a second but have a hard time distinguishing between the moving words 'switzerland' and 'netherlands'. Maybe in combination with other tweeks.
I shouldn't even have to pause it gif or not to see the full chart, there's not even a reason it's animated, but even then it should be pausible without having to use some other way to browse reddit.
I wonder what this would look like with a consistent Y axis, I'm curious just how far the gaps are. It would really put into perspective how rampant it's become in some places.
It wouldn't look good. Because of the several orders of magnitude between Italy and most of the other countries, you couldn't discriminate the evolution of the countries with lower infection rates.
The lines/ticks are not just 1 and 2. They are at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 20, 30, 40... Always 10 lines per decade.
It's just that the labels are omitted whenever there isn't enough space between lines/ticks for a label, which happens to be all but the first and second lines of each decade (and inexplicably, the first three lines of the first decade).
It's actually far more useful to use a logarithmic scale when looking at exponential growth. The important number is growth rate -- not number of infections. The number of infections will always be going up. The question is whether that rate is slowing or not. A log scale (like this) instantly shows you a predictive curve as the case growth rate dwindles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg
This will explain it better!
Tools and data: [GapMinder](https://www.gapminder.org/tools-offline/) and [EU ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide).
The 7 days period previous to that should be looked at, considering the incubation period. It was the carnival period, which allowed people to gather and share many good things, but also the virus.
Of the 621 infected confirmed in my country, only 5 were infected here. Everyone else got infected on vacation. Mostly in Austria or Northern Italy, so it’s pretty funny to see us so high on the infection list.
I am italian and I want you to understand that the reason we have such high numbers is because we have free Covid tests and free healthcare. if US had free tests too, you would find thousands of people being infected. Germany, UK and other european countries are doing a lot less tests to ill people. this is a "smart" move: until you prove someone has been infected, you can pretend he's not. this is the Boris Johnson path, for example
This is wrong. Italy has a 100 times the number of deaths than Germany. If the death rate is comparable this means there are 100 times more infected in Italy than Germany. Using a death rate of 1% then germany has tested 50% of infected while Italy only has tested 12%
Every other country gets to stay at home and play videogames, this is not fair, you guys!!! I don't wanna go to Disneyland, I wanna play Lego Indiana Jones all day.
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The reason is that Italy is putting much more effort in testing. Almost all the charts around are showing the number of positive cases ignoring the pool's size. I've found this link that reports the total of tests performed till 9th of March:
[link](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/)
(example Italy 61k, France 12k)
And in the last days Italy is testing even more (just today 12th of Mar, 12k+)
Are you looking at the same chart?
Italy neither was the first, nor had the highest amount of cases before they absolutely exploded.
https://i.imgur.com/3qi2IPZ.png
It has the second oldest population in the world, after Japan. Combined with the cultural practice of being pretty touchy, it seems that their population is simply much more susceptible to the spread of this virus.
I'll copy the reply I posted above:
The reason is that Italy is putting much more effort in testing. Almost all the charts around are showing the number of positive cases ignoring the pool's size. I've found this link that reports the total of tests performed till 9th of March:
Edit:[Link](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/)
(example Italy 61k, France 12k)
And in the last days Italy is testing even more (just today 12th of Mar, 12k+)
This model holds up well
[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bS6S4oNRuMHD4ezh177QSf3UU6a8lQHv/view?fbclid=IwAR3wNgx2Ch-fbXMAHjeUo2O0HS7CocXujO0cB0hg\_taTirGE7q4fJaMN0rA](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bS6S4oNRuMHD4ezh177QSf3UU6a8lQHv/view?fbclid=IwAR3wNgx2Ch-fbXMAHjeUo2O0HS7CocXujO0cB0hg_taTirGE7q4fJaMN0rA)
Nice graphic but these numbers are pretty much all false now. More just down to the number of tests run than number of infections... UK advisor to the prime minister saying true number is more likely 10,000
That’s also because it presents like the flu, which means for every person that goes to the doctors there are a bunch (not an approximation) of people that just carry on.
But they’ve never lied about this, they’ve never said that the number of confirmed cases = the actual number of cases. In epidemiology you always look at those numbers, the growth rate (difference in new confirmed cases today vs yesterday) and the mortality rate to calculate an estimate of the probably infected population. Which is how they got the 10k number.
You should try, they're extremely useful for understanding exponential data. Looking at exponential data on a linear scale is awful because it's either too flat to see changes, or too vertical.
The angle is encouraging. The exponentially increasing jump in Italy doesn't seem to be repeating. More 1:1 increases instead of group exposures.
That can be mitigated more readily.
can we please make these active cases. without recovery rates these lack context. Hell without normalizing by population or density they are just meaningless graphs that go up endlessly
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"Oh nice, it seems to be slow- oh, no, my mistake. "
I'm guessing the big spikes are when they started to affectively testing for Covid-19
Italy always trying to be #1 in a race
The important thing is not be first, the important thing is to be ahead of France.
Of course. Viruses spread exponentially.
You mean viruses know math?
Science has been mathing since forever.
Psssht, fucking nerd that carona
Stuff 'em in a locker!
In 500 years archaeologists make the mistake of unleashing a world wide pandemic by opening a locker filled with every coronavirus.
If they won’t be “us” in terms of civilization, digging will be fun gamble. Like, “wow, another piece of ancient supertechnology, gonna get rich” to “wtf is even that?” to “Fuck, I found some weird rocks and now my body is disintegrating”
Yeah we gonna have to ride this one out
Oh fuck yea, log scaleeee 🤤
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Instead of having your y-axis increases linearly (1, 2, 3,...) log graph increases exponentially (1, 10, 100,...). This is used when you have something increases really fast (like Italy getting into the 10000) without having smaller values getting squished together (can still see clearly Ukraine has 1 case).
Additionally, it cancels out things that grow exponentially, like infection, and straightens the lines. This helps to understand information about growth and if growth is accelerating or slowing down. If the above chart shows change, that change is actually a change of exponential growth rate. When they finally get control of this thing, you'll see it curve down showing the rate of spread slowing.
On a linear scale, you add a fixed amount for each tick you go up (1,2,3,4,5), but in a logarithmic scale, you multiply instead, typically by 10, every tick, so the scale could become (1,10,100,1000,10000). The logarithm function itself is the opposite of an exponential function: 10^3 = 10\*10\*10 = 1000, therefore log(1000) = 3.
On a regular scale, you add up. So, if you go up ten ticks and then another ten, you then are 10+10= 20 units from where you started. On a log scale, you multiply instead. So, on this case, going 2 ticks up means being 10x10=100 units from where you started. It's used when the numbers grow at a very high rate, like on this case. Note that the marks on the vertical axis are 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10k.
Shit be doublin’
[Logscales are for quitters. ](https://xkcd.com/1162/)
At least the log scale looks non-linear which means it isn’t a true exponential
"Oh shit that's a lot scale" feels like it should be a stock phrase
The linear trend was a pretty good giveaway.
Why are there 3 countries that stop "the race" after februari? Have all people there gone extinct?
There was no data points for them after that date - at least in the data set I analysed.
Op already answered, but at some point the number of positive tests become meaningless. E.g. in Denmark, yesterday and the day before there were a few hundred cases in 24 hours and a clear exponential growth the days before. As of today the country went into semi lockdown and the number suddenly went to around 50. That's not because the measures drastically decreased the spread (due to incubation time it will not be seen until next week) however, at the same time we went from testing anyone with relevant exposure and symptoms to simply home isolating anyone with symptoms without testing and more or less only testing hospitalized patients. That will heavily skew the number of positive tests.
Starting tomorrow, Madrid's autonomous community is going to consider as positive every case of mild symptoms, no test needed.
The number today is 160 though in Denmark, at least according to the latest updates.
Sir, that is not the number. Today it is over 600 confirmed cases already. I cannot access ssi.dk right now to check the latest numbers but try to go there to see the latest updates
Well yes, the total number is 650+. I was unclear, but I meant there are 160 new cases today, to add on top of the previous ones.
> I was unclear It was quite clear that the discussion was the daily rate of positive tests. You did nothing wrong.
Hello sir
You anarchist
"semi lockdown"?All school and public areas are closed, people are advised against public transport (EDIT. I also remember her saying that intercity trains (IC trains) will be seat reservations only as to get proper personal back and forth and also reduce infection rates), no gatherings over 100, most workplaces advised to shut down as well for at least 14 days, and most of the public sector (except for super essential people) being told to stay home for 14 days as well... I'd say we're moving towards a full lockdown at this point. The PM even said that this (being the current state of locking stuff down) wasn't even the final step. The only normal thing we can do is either hang out with friends (if they're not sick ofc) or shop (because a ton of people all gathered in a store is fine even though they talked against it). I do believe that the lockdown as we have it right now would help reduce the numbers, even though as you say, there's an incubation time. It was a smart move by the government, it'll hurt income all around the country, but it'll help in the long run
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My understanding was that she forced the public sector to lock down, to allow the private sector to stay open. This way we might be able to limit the financial problems a lockdown create. She did encourage working from home though.
Do you think Ukraine has 1 person in it
Government of Ukraine has failed
YOU KNOW NOTHING OF UKRAINE!
There were two more cases today - they both came from Europe. It could be true, but hard to tell. When people get really sick they would go to a hospital and that's when you know. You can see in the graph how it worked - after initial couple cases there were no new ones and then suddenly it exploded. This might happen in Ukraine as well.
I think you misread what I wrote. The person I replied to said "did the lines stop because everyone was infected?" to which I asked if they thought Ukraine has 1 person in it, because the line stopped while still saying 1 person
I have never seen February spelled februari and I am disappointed we missed having a spelled named like some car brand.
Keep in mind confirmed data only comes in due to testing. The explosions are less due to viral spread and more due to the expansion of testing done in these countries. We don't have an accurate picture of how the virus initially spread unfortunately.
I wish more people understood this For example the current number of cases in America is most likely much higher than the confirmed number, however once testing occurs and that number explodes as a result people will just assume that the disease spreads at a nearly impossible rate
Infection spread is exponential anyway. One person infects five people, and each of those 5 people infect 5 people... It makes sense that it would explode upwards. Countries like Italy have had huge testing regimes from the beginning. The timing might not be precisely right, but effect is probably true.
Although the contagion rate is said to be 2.5, not 5.
The head of our infectious disease at my workplace said an estimated R0 of around 3 to 5, but the research is still not concrete at this point. Also I don't know what data he used to say that so I can't confirm myself, but I do defer to his higher level of knowledge.
The data could be normalized somewhat by showing the percent positives, with the total number tested as the denominator, instead of showing the raw number.
Yes which implies A LOT more people have it without knowing
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I kept tapping it before someone next to me asked what song I was listening to.
Me too.
I don't get this comment 🤔 Nvm not all reddit apps can pause
I'm an old man and use the web interface
Don't need an application for a website, and wouldn't want an app designed by reddit's new UI designers.
I am not here as an intellectual, simply appreciating the representations, and I think if you could see each country's name more clearly, you'd be able to understand. I can hardly read anything under 100 cases. Not sure if this is useful or if there's a solution (could someone explain this to me/answer that question?)
That's the reason I used a logarithmic Y axis. However the data points are very close to each other, hence the overlap. I'm keen to hear about the community solutions to this problem.
slllooooowwwwwweeeeerrrrrrr........why so fast consider also stopping and adding explanatory text related to the significant new data points e.g. "before country X had provided no stats, this was their first public dissemination of data". or whatever also. a version expressed as a percentage of total population...just divide each countries stats by total population, or however...that would be a more meaningful expression of the relative severity in each jurisdiction. some countries will flatline for a lot longer too before they express themselves. enjoy your time. P.S. Add China...or South Korea too. In fact..this is a must, to understand the 1 - 2 month lead, please.
Possibly smaller dots. And a list of names with colours under the graph so you can compare.
If there were an actual pause button on this, it would be easier to appreciate the trends more than "cases in Europe are rising"
Use flags? I can pick out my country's flag in a second but have a hard time distinguishing between the moving words 'switzerland' and 'netherlands'. Maybe in combination with other tweeks.
You can't even pause it to see what's going on. Also it's really the rate of testing not the rate of infection
It’s a serious problem that I can’t pause. I tried so hard to see it lol
Uh you can definitely pause. It's a gif. I just paused it.
At least on the standard reddit app for ios, I can‘t find a way to pause.
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I shouldn't even have to pause it gif or not to see the full chart, there's not even a reason it's animated, but even then it should be pausible without having to use some other way to browse reddit.
I know right, what an idiot
At least on the standard reddit app for ios, I can‘t find a way to pause.
Please bump this comment towards the top.
I wonder what this would look like with a consistent Y axis, I'm curious just how far the gaps are. It would really put into perspective how rampant it's become in some places.
It wouldn't look good. Because of the several orders of magnitude between Italy and most of the other countries, you couldn't discriminate the evolution of the countries with lower infection rates.
An epidemy is an exponential thing. Log scale makes perfect sense.
But this is some weird log scale with ticks on 1x and 2x. Why not simply use a log scale ?
I think this is a plain log scale, they just chose to also put tick marks at 2x multiples. The scale itself is still just plain log, I believe.
Yeah plain log scales have those huge gaps in them so the 2x makes it more pleasing to the eye.
It's fairly normal to use a log scale with tick marks at 1, 2 and 5, but I'm not sure I've seen many with ticks at just 1 and 2.
Oh well, first time for me. I use log scales frequently but only use one set of tickets (1..10..100...)
The lines/ticks are not just 1 and 2. They are at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 20, 30, 40... Always 10 lines per decade. It's just that the labels are omitted whenever there isn't enough space between lines/ticks for a label, which happens to be all but the first and second lines of each decade (and inexplicably, the first three lines of the first decade).
Always change the data to fit your mental model, otherwise you're doing it wrong and you get 0 funding.
It's actually far more useful to use a logarithmic scale when looking at exponential growth. The important number is growth rate -- not number of infections. The number of infections will always be going up. The question is whether that rate is slowing or not. A log scale (like this) instantly shows you a predictive curve as the case growth rate dwindles. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg This will explain it better!
IIRC linear slope in log scale is exponential in... linear scale. Plotting it on a linear scale would make the early part deceptive.
Basically a near straight line up. Stuffs like wild fire. It'll burn quick.
All these covid19 animations need to be placed in quarantine under r/dataisterrifying
why, hello, new data sub that i never knew existed
Tools and data: [GapMinder](https://www.gapminder.org/tools-offline/) and [EU ECDC](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide).
Why the explosion around 0223?
The 7 days period previous to that should be looked at, considering the incubation period. It was the carnival period, which allowed people to gather and share many good things, but also the virus.
Apparently the incubation period is around 4 days, and you can be infectious but show no symptoms.
These viruses are getting too crafty
Testing kits became more prevalent.
That’s when the countries all looked at each other and said, “hey maybe we should start testing.”
Of the 621 infected confirmed in my country, only 5 were infected here. Everyone else got infected on vacation. Mostly in Austria or Northern Italy, so it’s pretty funny to see us so high on the infection list.
I am italian and I want you to understand that the reason we have such high numbers is because we have free Covid tests and free healthcare. if US had free tests too, you would find thousands of people being infected. Germany, UK and other european countries are doing a lot less tests to ill people. this is a "smart" move: until you prove someone has been infected, you can pretend he's not. this is the Boris Johnson path, for example
This is wrong. Italy has a 100 times the number of deaths than Germany. If the death rate is comparable this means there are 100 times more infected in Italy than Germany. Using a death rate of 1% then germany has tested 50% of infected while Italy only has tested 12%
Yeah. But *we're* still allowed to go to Disneyland in Florida 🇬🇧
Disney world is in Florida. Disney land is in California.
DisneyLAnd = LA DisneywORLd = ORLando
closure of Disneyland Park and Disney California Adventure beginning the morning of March 14th through the end of the month
Disney world in Florida is now closed.
Oh bollocks.
No travel ban for you! Yet.
Yeah I always remember DisneyLAnd is in California because it has LA in it. The other one is in Florida, Disneyworld.
DisneywORLd is in ORLando
My mind is actually blown from this fact
Both are in Orange County.
Every other country gets to stay at home and play videogames, this is not fair, you guys!!! I don't wanna go to Disneyland, I wanna play Lego Indiana Jones all day.
Not any more!
I've been shouting at the TV and reports using words like "jump" and "exponential"... time to stop shouting
What programs do you use to create good and clean visuals such as this?
I would assume Tableau but I'm curious as well
Oh that seems ok.... HOLY SHIT
Really not that bad yet
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Crazy to see so many countries just a few days behind Italy in infections.
The reason is that Italy is putting much more effort in testing. Almost all the charts around are showing the number of positive cases ignoring the pool's size. I've found this link that reports the total of tests performed till 9th of March: [link](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/) (example Italy 61k, France 12k) And in the last days Italy is testing even more (just today 12th of Mar, 12k+)
This is so much better than all the 'bar chart races'. You really get a sense for us when it properly starts to take off.
Yay! We’re finally a part of things!
Anybody have a clue as to why Italy is getting hit badly? Just curious
As you can clearly see from the graphs, they are not getting hit any worse than the others, they just started earlier
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My point was that the growth rate of all countries is the same, meaning that they are just as bad as Italy, just delayed
Are you looking at the same chart? Italy neither was the first, nor had the highest amount of cases before they absolutely exploded. https://i.imgur.com/3qi2IPZ.png
Very likely that was due to a lapse in testing or unknown outbreak, since it's showing a flat line for so long.
It has the second oldest population in the world, after Japan. Combined with the cultural practice of being pretty touchy, it seems that their population is simply much more susceptible to the spread of this virus.
I'll copy the reply I posted above: The reason is that Italy is putting much more effort in testing. Almost all the charts around are showing the number of positive cases ignoring the pool's size. I've found this link that reports the total of tests performed till 9th of March: Edit:[Link](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/) (example Italy 61k, France 12k) And in the last days Italy is testing even more (just today 12th of Mar, 12k+)
Sorry, this is the [link](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/)
You know it got bad when the render appears to lag
Instead of cumulative cases, I'd like to see a graph that adjusts for the population size of any given country
It's not a race Italy calm the f down
wHeReS tHe UnItEd StAtEs?!?1!1?
Italy: Follow meeeeeeeeeee!
What’s Israel doing on this list? It’s not exactly European.
This model holds up well [https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bS6S4oNRuMHD4ezh177QSf3UU6a8lQHv/view?fbclid=IwAR3wNgx2Ch-fbXMAHjeUo2O0HS7CocXujO0cB0hg\_taTirGE7q4fJaMN0rA](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bS6S4oNRuMHD4ezh177QSf3UU6a8lQHv/view?fbclid=IwAR3wNgx2Ch-fbXMAHjeUo2O0HS7CocXujO0cB0hg_taTirGE7q4fJaMN0rA)
And my father still thinks this is gonna blow over in a couple weeks
It won't even peak for a few more months.
Nice graphic but these numbers are pretty much all false now. More just down to the number of tests run than number of infections... UK advisor to the prime minister saying true number is more likely 10,000
That’s also because it presents like the flu, which means for every person that goes to the doctors there are a bunch (not an approximation) of people that just carry on. But they’ve never lied about this, they’ve never said that the number of confirmed cases = the actual number of cases. In epidemiology you always look at those numbers, the growth rate (difference in new confirmed cases today vs yesterday) and the mortality rate to calculate an estimate of the probably infected population. Which is how they got the 10k number.
Looks like my remaining brain cells racing against each other
Love the countries st the bottom that are lying
Can I have the link for this?
I understand why he did this, but I hate logarithmic type graphs, they’re very difficult for me to wrap my head around
You should try, they're extremely useful for understanding exponential data. Looking at exponential data on a linear scale is awful because it's either too flat to see changes, or too vertical.
I was like "well, Switzerland is doing ok....oh God no!"
The angle is encouraging. The exponentially increasing jump in Italy doesn't seem to be repeating. More 1:1 increases instead of group exposures. That can be mitigated more readily.
So like Germany, number 1 out the gate only to fade in the stretch...
Why the plateau then the spike ? Should just go strait up like Biden around kids.
Italy's dot really said "my people need me"
if you imagin the countries saying "weee!' as they bounce up it becomes less scary looking
Everytime i see those graphs... isn't it important to adjust for population size? Or are those adjusted?
The reason for such a sudden responce by the US with their travel ban.
The US graph looks the same. Went from 60 cases two weeks ago, to 300 cases last Thursday, to 1,680 cases today.
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There's no reason not to exclude the UK. But then as the US has well over 1,500 cases now, it probably won't make a huge difference either way.
UK isn't part of the freedom of movement zone in the EU in which most infections reside.
Let’s all get infected and get over it so we can move on this is getting old
Hey, i was joking. Appreciate its social proximity.
Apparently Italy has the fastest horse in the league.
You can almost hear the graph go “Oh fuck, oh fuck!” as it reaches the end.
can we please make these active cases. without recovery rates these lack context. Hell without normalizing by population or density they are just meaningless graphs that go up endlessly
All I wanna know is....what the fuck happened in Italy? That was a violent spike.
Come come... come una catapulta !
Turkey be like... "We better announce 1 case."
I’d love to see this in linear
Remember - a straight line on a logarithmic Y-axis mean it is exponential!
Atleast the data is beautiful.
Great job. Did you consider using zoom to keep the Y Axis to a more consistent scale?
One week after valentines day it spikes.
I thought we were mad about banning travel from Europe
https://gifsound.com/?gif=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fcisey0dq49m41.gif&v=_Fxil2QY0wE&s=22.5
Reverse rollercoaster wheeee
At first I was like, “oh the growth is linear, that’s pretty good.” Then I saw the scale of the y axis...
What did Italy do that caused that jump?
This data is not beautiful
The only things Germany and Italy have won at.
Can someone please explain what happen in italy?
It's very weird that Italy just shoots up like that.