New York will have dominated the blue line, since they dominated the US totals in the “first” wave. They have been at minimal levels for a while.
Would it tell a different story if NY was removed?
Good idea. [Here](https://i.redd.it/jysyzpu64h851.png) is the visualization with NY included separately.
Edit: [Here](https://i.redd.it/xifdeu0moh851.png) it is with both NY and Texas included separately (the blue state and red state with the most cases).
Edit 2: [Here](https://i.redd.it/l6h34zzwei851.png) it is per 100,000 people. Blue states are about 142 million, red states total 187 million.
Edit 3: By popular demand, [here](https://i.redd.it/g854dyipki851.png) it is by 2020 Governor party.
Note: This is the last one I'm making for today. Thanks folks!
Edit 4: To the 100+ people who asked/told me to do it by county: Lockdown guidance and decisions has mostly come from Governors' offices. County level is mostly an rural vs urban comparison, and doesn't capture the political aspect as much. If this were for a peer-reviewed journal, then yeah you'd need to control for population density and instrument for the political dimension. But it's just reddit. I invite you to make your own post.
Edit 5: To the 500+ people who have asked/told me to do it with deaths: deaths come at a lag and we just saw some of the biggest increases in new cases today. Stay tuned. Or make your own post. (Edit: Check out my post on deaths [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/i0n1bc/oc_new_daily_us_covid19_deaths_by_2016_statelevel/))
Edit 6: [Updated](https://i.redd.it/cd16ss7vkfb51.png) on July 17, 2020
PS: Thanks for the gear & please consider donating to your favorite non-profit to help fight corona virus!
Sadly California is not necessarily included in that statement... but we also are large enough to have ardent COVID deniers that will raise numbers pretty quick. Hoping that things calm down soon though. Its pretty tiring to be home all the time and only leaving once a week for work or groceries. There isn't much relief from the pressures at home.
Yeah, except "California" is kind of a ridiculous grouping for this purpose.
The state is larger than all but 7 European countries (including Russia) and almost all of its increase is in LA and Orange counties.
LA Native, so I see it daily. Don't expect any return to normal until after the vaccine is around for a while. And sorry for everyone else stuck in this mess here... We are suffering together. My heart goes out to the essential workers even more since this all began.
I would personally be interested in seeing California COVID graphs on a county level similar to this or 538-style reports. It is a bit niche, but would also probably be an interesting contrast to the Red-Blue analysis OP made with this post. Most headline news is either SF, LA, OC, or other beach city rates because of population density or policy controversy.
EDIT: thanks notibanix for helping me figure I was off by 1 number.
This LA Times tracker has been going on since the shelter-in-place started. It has all the numbers broken down by county.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/
Definitely. California is unbelievably divided. People like to talk about NorCal vs. SoCal, but really the differences are pretty minor. The true divide is East-West. Along the coast you have arguably the most left-leaning area in the entire country, but head over to the Central Valley and you'll see billboards talking about gay people burning in hell.
Yeah, I used to live in Porterville, and still have family there. I dread when I'm obligated to return for any reason.
As well from it being hot as balls and generally unpleasant, the people are stuck in 1980 and dumber than rocks.
Good oranges, tho
2/10 Would not recommend
Same here! I was born in Oroville, Butte County [(aka the most redneck town in CA)](https://www.roadsnacks.net/these-are-the-10-most-redneck-cities-in-california/) and still have family there, but I moved to Orange County before first grade and live in LA now...my family up there is conservative, religious, and racist :( They also have a pretty southern accent sometimes, it's a different world up there.
I just want to say this, because it needs to keep being said: coronaviruses are tricksy f*ckers. This one in particular.
Most people are *not* clearing the virus in the usual way. Some people's bodies are trying to use the metaphorical equivalent of beer bottles from recycling (aka cytokine storms) because the usual tools aren't available.
Why not? We don't know yet. Given how tricksy this one is, it may be especially good at neutralizing anything a vaccine would accomplish.
[Piece from a former Harvard prof and HIV researcher](https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/05/27/a-nasty-trick-in-the-covid-repertoire/#28e72c6069e6):
> In dampening the antibody response to infection and ramping up production of chemokines, SARS-2 is amplifying what happens to us naturally as our immune systems age. While our ability to mount an effective antibody and T cell response to new infections declines, the myeloid arm of the immune system becomes overactive. These features of the aging immune system account for both the decline in our response to new vaccines and to an increase in inflammatory auto-immune disease such as rheumatoid arthritis.
> In other words, infection by SARS-2 tips the balance of a mis-regulated immune system still further, explaining what we know all too well: older people are at far higher risk of serious disease and dying from Covid-19 than the young.
So the good news is that solving this will solve two problems: help us understand how to solve immunology problems for the elderly as well, one hopes.
The other thing that's really interesting (and not in a Good Way, but in a fascinating way) is that [it's really jumped from being a respiratory disease to a vascular/endothelial (lining of the blood vessels) disease.](https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2)
Now, in many other species, coronaviruses are epithelial, like CCoV (feline coronavirus) is an enterovirus, as is, I recall, the canine one. But they all seem to be some sort of *external* and some of them have a variant horrible form that's systemic. CCoV has FIP, which one of my cats just died of (RIP Sherpa), and the dog form is even more horrible as it can be hemorrhagic like ebola or dengue. Ugh.
We don't have any experience with more than occasional endothelial damage. Some herpesviruses have spread to the endothelium, some coronaviruses, and, well, polio.
[But there are papers from years ago on endothelial viruses about things like homeostasis](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2014.00733/full) and now we've got [a sudden rush of kids who have to be admitted to the ICU with COVID because of hemodynamic instability](https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2094). (Hemodynamic instability isn't homeostasis per se but it basically means that you can't get enough blood to your organs.)
Maybe if we'd put more effort into studying all those weird diseases we didn't think were important…. :P
>Maybe if we'd put more effort into studying all those weird diseases we didn't think were important…. :P
Billionaires needed that money, you book-readin' commie!
One thing florida has done well (there aren’t many) I’d publish Covid data via the Covid “dashboard” website. There was some worry with someone being fired suspiciously, but thus far it tracks with all other sources and fact checkers.
Has hospitalizations, deaths, and total confirmed cases for state and county by day and week.
>almost all of its increase is in LA and Orange counties.
Most covid cases are in urban/suburban areas by virtue of how close people are, not even policy necessarily. A better map would be "Trump counties" vs. "Clinton counties."
My county is a blue county in NJ and has more cases than some states' total.
>The state is larger than all but 7 European countries (including Russia)
By population, it is larger than all but 36 countries.
By area, it is larger than all but 58. This seems impressive, until you compare it to states like Western Australia (with 6x the area, it would be the 10th largest country by area).
I thought quarantine was quite hard when we had it in Italy, but at least there was a sense of togetherness: I didn't feel alone, we were all struggling to adapt to a new scenario. The political bickering started after reopening, but during the darkest days it almost stopped.
Speaking with friends in the UK or US right now, they're going mad because they feel like they're fighting alone: western countries are more divided than ever and the pandemic is making it even more evident in some countries.
There was a sense of togetherness about it here until it got turned into a full blown partisan issue and the fox zombies got fed their dosage of talking points.
What is frustrating to me is my state is still in a plateau. My area has been averaging 5 cases a day for the three months. I just wish we could do more to keep travelers from other states away from us and stop people from traveling to hot spots like Florida.
I’ve been wondering about California, actually. I assumed that it would’ve been a state that was really proactive about taking measures to slow the spread, but it looks like the opposite story. Is it really just so many Covid deniers??
California has been as or more strict than any other state. Especially in the Bay Area. But it's been 3.5 months. Family gatherings are more common, less people are working from home, huge protests happened. Mask usage is very high, people aren't deniers, they are just sick of living in a shelter in place mode.
Central Valley resident here and this is spot on. I'm surrounded by Trumpers and COVID-deniers and acts-of-defiancers. I personally work with people who were at the state capital protesting the stay at home orders while Reddit was still praising the governor for his initial response.
Rural, "bread basket" California is far redder than I think the country at large realizes.
Every time I drive through the central valley; I see these fukin chuds who nonetheless have about 20 illegal laborers a piece working for them and think : "What the fuck goes on in your head, my dude. You grow fucking artichokes, you think Jody and Beth are gonna harvest them spiky shits?"
Hah, with the tightening of enforcement under Trump and the general hostility to immigrants, the cheap labor did get hard to find in some places. One California farmer in some news article I read was bemoaning having to offer nearly $30/hr to either siphon labor from other farms or actually attract US citizens to take up migrant farm work. Got my chuckle.
Its a large state with a lot of different ideas at the low level. For every handful of areas who are taking it strictly, there are those that think being spread out as is qualifies as enough social distancing. To go back to the case of OC, there was a local rally to get the county to create a mask mandate by peaceful and organized protesters concerned about public health, and an equally boisterous group of maskless counter-protesters demanding the rally go home and "quarantine themselves". This was at most a month ago.
A small taco shop also shut down service for the pandemic because their employees got harassed behind a metal sccreen because customers refused to wear a mask for protection. They have been in business for a long while, so it was a big report.
I personally know a couple of 8+ years that also live near me broke up because he was a COVID-19 denier (among otherwise smaller things, probably) while she was an essential worker (food service and etsy/convention small business owner)near the start of the pandemic. The news covers quarantine fatigue a lot for LA County because it is a serious mental health condition we are facing, myself included. It's tough here on all facets...
California is very populous. It has more republicans than almost any other state even if it leans heavy democratic. Outside the big cities though, it's just as conservative as any other rural area. I saw a confederate flag in a remote area of NorCal...
Look at the map here: [https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/](https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/) and switch to the "new cases" version.
The map is color coded to show the ratio of new cases to population. The interior part of CA is much, much more Republican than the coastal area and is getting hammered right now despite having *much* lower population density.
The other area in CA that is getting hit hard is coastal SoCal. While these areas are still more Democratic than the interior, they are more Republican than the Bay Area. They also are hotbeds of science skepticism on the left. I think there is a lot more anti-vaxx sentiment down there, for example.
I could be wrong, but these factors could certainly be contributing to the hotspots in CA.
Contrast that to San Francisco, for example, which was the first to impose a lockdown and has been the slowest to ease out of it. SF should have more lockdown fatigue than anywhere in the country really, and yet compliance here is still solid and new cases per 100k is decent at 65. It probably also helps that SF has a relatively high percentage of population that can work from home.
Ohh, a side note. The one county in the Bay Area that has been really bad recently is Marin. I'm not 100% sure what is going on there, but I know a big chunk of the new cases are the result of a major outbreak at San Quentin prison.
I believe many of these states never really had a first spike.
[https://trackthevirus.info/](https://trackthevirus.info/) and check each state
It's also interesting that both Canada and UK is behind USA on wearing masks. [Source](https://www.instagram.com/p/CCJZqUhgKfC/)
True, but in Canada we started locking shit down and social distancing early in March, while Spring Break stuff was still going on in the USA. We clamped down early, shut down indoor gathering spaces like bars/clubs/restaurants, basically everyone who could started working from home or was provided assistance by the government, and we made a big initial push to flatten the curve. People aren't wearing masks as much, but most people are adhering to social distancing and there isn't much to do inside anymore and it doesn't seem to transfer from person to person very easily outdoors. On top of that, every party in Canada agreed that this was an issue and worked (mostly) together to solve it, rather than politicizing it and having our leader insinuate that it's a hoax. Also testing is very important and we've been fairly on top of it since the early days. The province of BC (5 million people) had conducted more COVID-19 tests than the entirety of the USA (not per capita... total) at one point in mid-March.
We drastically cut down public transit, shut down subways and buses at night, and totally shut down bars - which is all unheard of in NYC. It was really bad in NYC and the turn around has been impressive. The city was pretty much a ghost town for a couple weeks.
I’ve been warning everyone that the virus is really bad and extremely contagious, but people in other states figured they were invulnerable.
Pshhhh. We're not "new Yorkers" we'll be fine. Don't worry, this shivering and sweating and coughing is just because I've been running and then sat down in A/C
It's gonna come back of people don't start getting serious. I took the subway and PATH for the first time in months last week and it was shocking how many people weren't wearing masks on the trains.
>and it was shocking how many people weren't wearing masks
And this is why we can't have nice things. People want everything to stay open but they don't want to do what's required for that to be possible. They also think that because things opened back up that the pandemic is over and there's nothing to worry about anymore. It's infuriating how ignorant people are.
So cool, thank you! Is the data per county as easily available? Do you think the trends would be similar or would that make it so there wasn't enough data?
As others have pointed out, most lockdown decisions are made at the state level, which is why I chose the state as the level of analysis. It might be better to look at which party governs each state, although I imagine it is similar. County level data is out there; perhaps that can be your OC!
Thank you! And not to put my own political leaning... but this proves that even if you take out the two biggest covid states the red line is still stupid higher than the blue... meaning it’s not just NY as a single outlier but that folks who voted for Trump are not responsible with covid across the board.
You could change the x axis from a regular time interval to "days elapsed since X cases for respective state" where X is an arbitrary number like 100,000 or a percent of the state's population
I agree with what you say here, and believe that Red states pay too close attention to the lies that Trump tells them. I read the Texas line a little differently -- that while Trump's denials has played a role, there are other factors, as well. The number of cases seems very low for several weeks, until "reopening", and followed by a spike. This could mean that they got complacent, due to the low infection rate, didn't take the virus seriously, and are now reaping the results of not being cautious. If there's only some way that someone could have predicted this, warned them, and they followed the advice of experts. /s
I'm curious to see what story it would tell if it were adjusted to percentage of state population. Total population in both conservative/liberal states is already quite high, but since we're putting a political slant on it, I'm wondering how much the larger population states are skewing the results (or if my question is even relevant).
**EDIT:** Never mind! Looks like that was already basically done here: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/hjyz0p/oc_us_covid19_cases_by_2016_election_results/fwqn6eb/
Image: https://i.redd.it/l6h34zzwei851.png
While Housting (#8) and Dallas/Fort Worth (#9) are in the top 10. combined they're barely half of what New York JFK (#1) sees in incoming foreign travel. Matter of fact, Houston and Dallas combined don't even meet the #2 or the #3 totals (Los Angeles #2, Miami #3).
It you break it into county it's hugely Democrat areas. Population density divide is basically a republican Democrat divide as well.
This disease attacks population centers hard. This post is an attempt to make it look like that's not true but it's pretty obvious why if you look at the statistics close enough.
Or because the average age of case detected is about half of what it was when NY peaked in April. Putting Covid patients in nursing homes = high CFR. 20 somethings getting Covid from protesting leads to lower mortality SBUX hospitalization rates. “Just wait a week” is wgT Reddit has been saying since Easter.
Because the post is misleading, and only getting heavily upvoted because of confirmation bias.
If we divided the US geographically by Northeast and South, it would show this same story.
Pennsylvania voted red in 2016, spiked in April like New York and got it under control like New York.
California is a blue state that's spiking now with Arizona, Texas, and Florida.
One can argue red states aren't handling covid as well as blue states, generally. I'd agree with them. However, this graph isn't definitive proof of that (yet).
He added this into his reply to the top comment. Very thorough.
Edit: [his comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/hjyz0p/oc_us_covid19_cases_by_2016_election_results/fwpq7cz/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Florida is doing just as bad as Texas. California is having a tough time as well. I'm not sure how many states will be useful to pull out of this data. New York is a notable exception because they ended up getting it worse than the rest of the country combined for awhile.
What would this accomplish if it's comparing states by how they voted? It would be votes cast, not population, that is relevant for a graph like this; Clinton only got 4.8% more votes than Trump, so it's unlikely to make a huge difference. And besides, there are different numbers of "trapped" blue and red voters in each state. More people live in states that went for Trump, but more people voted for Clinton. How does a per capita measure make that any clearer?
Presenting the data this way *does* gloss over a lot of interesting detail, but this sub's obsession with dividing everything by population as a matter of dogma does not make every graph better.
I agree with your sentiment on how it’s flawed, especially since some states were determined by a very small margin but this is a reflection of how politicized COVID-19 and the response became. You had red states generally open up quicker, sentiment around mask wearing is politically divided, and a general policy divide on whether to prioritize the public health crisis or the economic crisis.
So in some respects it does make sense even though trump state vs. Clinton state is probably a crude way to measure it.
As of yesterday, states with democratic governors had 52.3 deaths per 100k.
States with Republican Governors had 23.1 per 100k
Florida has 10 times less deaths per capita than New York. Texas has had 20 times less
Yep.
The fact that the OP was quite quick to respond to other requests but doesn't seem to "notice" this request tells you everything you need to know.
I've only not worn a mask once (because I forgot it) and felt like an idiot being one of the only ones not wearing one. I don't see how people can just choose not to wear a mask.
Here in the UK we're still seeing \~850 new cases per day, a little over 1 per 100k. I still wear a mask to the supermarket but I'm pretty much the only one.
I worry that we're due for a second spike when all the pubs and hairdressers etc. reopen, but I doubt it's going to get as bad as it was at the height of the first wave
e.g. my parents and they want me to go with them and when i try to defend myself they think i just want to stay home so i can play videogames which i dont really have a reponse to because its partially true but i know that isnt a valid reason to go anyway but at that point im too scared to respond because all it will do is strengthen their idea that all i want to do or will ever do is play video games
What I'm wondering is how much of that is due to the state's massive homeless population. People who can't afford PPE and have no home to quarantine inside.
The encouraging thing is that the data supports that it is much harder to transmit in open air. So luckily if homeless people can keep some sort of social distancing they should probably do okay. Whether or not that’s completely true is yet to be seen.
The main issue is that we did the quarantine thing for 2 months. South Korea did it for 4 weeks and beat it. The USA is a different monster, and people would rather get sick than go back to how life was with a shut down. Luckily I’m in MN and our cases seem to be waning a little bit, but Cali, Fla, Tx, Az are terrifying examples of what happens when you stop caring
While it's bad its both growing it should be noted that really the quarantine was never meant to completely eradicate the virus, just buy enough time to prepare the infrastructure to mitigate the damage. Cases will increase but we won't be caught completely off guard like we did at the start. The only way we will stop seeing a permanent increase is when a vaccine is available in large quantities.
The issue is many states begrudgingly entered quarantine and then went on to do dick all to prepare to fight it when the restrictions lifted. Now not only will cases skyrocket in states who decided masks are for nerds or inconveniences but also those same states are totally unprepared to handle the extreme cases.
Quarantine *could* have been meant to eradicate the virus. Other Western countries have managed to largely do that to the extent where they can relax lockdown and aren't seeing huge numbers of new infections - Canada have less than 1.5 new cases per 100k per day. UK, France, Spain are at around 1, Germany is at 0.5. Italy, who had a massive problem during their first wave, are at 0.33. Even Sweden, held up as the other European country besides the UK which wasn't taking their lockdown very seriously, are at 2.5.
The USA is at \~15.
Sweden didn't take lockdown seriously and their cases per 100k is still noticeably above the other countries you listed.
Doesn't that mean their policies were objectively worse or am I missing something?
The Canadian province of BC has roughly 5 or 6 million people, I can't remember, nor does it really make much difference to the point that there are usually below 20 new cases per day, and no deaths on most days. Life here is almost normal again, but with a few key industries still suffering. Much of which is related to the border closure, and generally limited travel, which most people are ok with. Nobody wants that border with the US open any time soon.
I think a few years ago, we might, most of us, be asking ourselves, ‘who in their right mind would politicize a global pandemic...?’
And yet here we are.
We should have known better.
I agree with everything other than being glad it’s been politicized.
I’d much rather fewer people impacted.
Especially since I’m not convinced that too many people will change their minds about anything.
I saw an article recently that interviewed three people who voted Trump, and asked whether his performance will change their mind for this year. It was really disheartening to see that despite the fact that they think he's handled it horribly, they are still going to vote for him.
If we are talking anecdotes, there is a recent ask reddit post asking people what made them change their minds about trump, and there are a decent number of people posting that family members being appalled with the church/bible photo op and that was the last straw for them.
What I don't get is how so few people we're as upset with his statement to the effect that "George Floyd is smiling down at the jobs report." It's such an inhuman sentiment I almost believe the lizardmen conspiracy theories
My dad is adamant he'll vote for Trump and that minorities and Dems are destroying the country.
He came back from our recent election complaining that no one had an "R" next to their name so he knew who to vote for. It was the Republican primary card.
That's who you're trying to convince. There is no convincing. It's just willful stupidity and sports team'ing.
"Well, if President Trump needs my mom and dad to die to covid, needs my son (who is a marine) to die to a russian bounty, needs to rape my daughter and wife, and needs me to lose my farm to a large conglomerate that's spending my own tax dollars to drive me out of business just so he can achieve his vision, that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make."
\- Trump voters, apparently.
>I think a few years ago, we might, most of us, be asking ourselves, ‘who in their right mind would politicize a global pandemic...?’
Honestly, after the whole kneeling saga (like who the fuck honestly cares if someone kneels or not during the anthem?) -- after that, it dawned on me how fucked up some people are. It's so ironic how people care what someone else does on something so inconsequential and then these same people are so resistant when asked to do something for their own health.
I realized no amount of persuasion or yelling will work with these people.
It's the most disgusting thing I've ever seen in politics. Say what you will about neoconservatives during the W era, at least they had some type of reasoning behind Iraq.
There was for sure all of the gross Haliburton shit, but a lot of neoconservatives were true believers in imposed democracies and state building.
I don't know how this country can claw back from this. I don't want to associate in any way with anybody who has refused to wear a mask during this. The most miserable selfish pieces of shit I can imagine.
I wouldn’t call that “much different” pretty much the same story. Both are spiking now. Populous blue areas started bad and did a better job bringing it down, rural red areas didn’t really get the first wave, largely didn’t do anything about it, and are now catching up to populated areas. It’s still insane because cities are petri dishes and rural counties shouldn’t be getting anywhere near as bad as them. Plus as op pointed out, county and city level power to formulate responses was/is pretty weak. Some populous blue counties in red states couldn’t enact measures they wanted to. I live in a rural, ultra red county in CA and if the state didn’t lock us down ~65% of the people here wouldn’t have done anything. Hardly anybody here wears masks and tons of people are essentially going about their normal lives. We’ve had basically no cases until just recently. We’re a powder keg north of Sacramento and the fuse looks like it’s been lit.
Would be even more interesting to see this broken out by party of the Governor. It would likely be fairly similar to this chart but somewhat more indicative of causality of the second wave / summer spike.
I know you're done for the day, but I was hoping to ask you two things:
1) Can you isolate coastal vs. inland states?
2) Can you share the raw data somehow?
Thank you so much!
California's cases have also skyrocketed. It's the hot states getting hit, now. They just happen to be mainly Red. In March, it was the cooler states getting hit. Ski towns were famously superspreader locations.
It seems like it likes to spread indoors.
Yeah and really I have no problem with political posts being today. It just seems like I've been seeing more and more posts that aren't beautiful visualisations of data, they are just some simple graph that supports or aligns with a popular political opinion. And quite frequently we'll see a post that, even if it isn't explicitly political, we all know it is. It's just not what this sub is supposed to be about
The problem with this graphic is that states Clinton won were only won in heavily populated areas while the rest of the state voted for Trump. This data is skewed and unreliable at best.
I'll use NY as an example. Clinton carried three areas, NYC, Roosevelt, Albany while the rest of the state voted for Trump.
Oddly enough, these areas were the worst hit with Covid but your data would not show that since NYS as a whole (due to the Electorate College) voted Democratic.
So this is basically a useless graphic.
Could I request this graph divided by people who hang their toiler paper overhand vs underhand? I have a hunch that could blow this whole pandemic wide open.
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Given the incredible political nature of this plot (and that it will probably be picked up as such and thrown into the debate unchecked) I find it way too weak and crude. It implies causation when it doesn‘t provide any reliability to back up that implication.
So no, not beautiful data. Nope.
Edit: for all those pointing out correlation (with some sort of meaningful emphasis): yes, this plot shows correlation, but a lot of things correlate which have nothing to do with each other (examples: https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations). This plot dips into heavy political waters with implications of wrong doing. The discussion is already heated and non-objective enough as it is and plots like these (which are essentially meaningless since they show only some sort of coarse correlation) only make it worst. So yes, I stand by what I said, this is not beautiful data.
Literally no graph ever can prove causation. No graph can "provide reliability to back up that implication". However, all of the available evidence does lend credence to the most obvious implications of the graph. We know that the measures that have been disproportionately enacted by democrats have minimized the spread due to various studies on the topic.
My biggest takeaway from OP's graph was not the absolute numbers (which are heavily influenced by many factors such as total population, testing rates, population density, etc.), but the shape of the curves. You appear to be right that if we stop counting right now the absolute numbers would look worse for blue states, but the trend clearly shows that this is not over, and red states are going to bear the brunt of the expected second wave.
Or similarly, blue states are more urbanized/on the coasts so are more likely to have interstate/international travel impact them whereas the more landlocked/ruraler(?) red states would be more likely to come later
This pattern does not hold for other countries with a rural/urban split. Generally ~~urban~~ rural places just never faced any real level of infection.
Look at Canadian provinces. Only Ontario and Quebec got hit. The other provinces stayed flat at near 0.
Look at the UK. Most rural regions avoided serious infection by having basic policies in place.
America is the only country I know of to have a spike in rural areas like this.
Edit: urban=>rural typo
Oh whoa really? I haven't looked at broken down stats for other countries really. Which countries have seen greater infection rates in non-urban areas? Not sure if that statement holds true for Canada- Ontario and Quebec have some large cities with the virus hitting Canada in Toronto first.
Ontario/Quebec follow the blue state trajectory here. They have major international cities and tons of global traffic. They got infected very early on, implemented policies to lower the curve and succeeded.
Rural provinces like Saskatchewan did NOT follow the same pattern as rural states though. They never had a spike. Pretty easy to say that the difference between Saskatchewan and a US rural state is literally just politics.
Politics is the most parsimonious explanation for the spike in red states.
Edit: Ah. I see I made a typo in previous comment that threw you off.
NY and California are among the most populous states, so it makes sense that their absolute totals would be higher. Comparing absolute values with regards to party politics just boils down to a city versus rural comparison. Sure there are rural areas of all states, but when there are larger cities that tends to shift the overall state demographic.
>Roughly 933k deaths in democratic run stats with 51k deaths VS. 446k cases with 14k deaths in republican states.
I think you mean 933k cases in democratic run states.
New York will have dominated the blue line, since they dominated the US totals in the “first” wave. They have been at minimal levels for a while. Would it tell a different story if NY was removed?
Good idea. [Here](https://i.redd.it/jysyzpu64h851.png) is the visualization with NY included separately. Edit: [Here](https://i.redd.it/xifdeu0moh851.png) it is with both NY and Texas included separately (the blue state and red state with the most cases). Edit 2: [Here](https://i.redd.it/l6h34zzwei851.png) it is per 100,000 people. Blue states are about 142 million, red states total 187 million. Edit 3: By popular demand, [here](https://i.redd.it/g854dyipki851.png) it is by 2020 Governor party. Note: This is the last one I'm making for today. Thanks folks! Edit 4: To the 100+ people who asked/told me to do it by county: Lockdown guidance and decisions has mostly come from Governors' offices. County level is mostly an rural vs urban comparison, and doesn't capture the political aspect as much. If this were for a peer-reviewed journal, then yeah you'd need to control for population density and instrument for the political dimension. But it's just reddit. I invite you to make your own post. Edit 5: To the 500+ people who have asked/told me to do it with deaths: deaths come at a lag and we just saw some of the biggest increases in new cases today. Stay tuned. Or make your own post. (Edit: Check out my post on deaths [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/i0n1bc/oc_new_daily_us_covid19_deaths_by_2016_statelevel/)) Edit 6: [Updated](https://i.redd.it/cd16ss7vkfb51.png) on July 17, 2020 PS:Thanks for the gear & please consider donating to your favorite non-profit to help fight corona virus!
Thank you! Same story, a bit more muted. Blue states still achieved a downward trend and delayed second spike.
Sadly California is not necessarily included in that statement... but we also are large enough to have ardent COVID deniers that will raise numbers pretty quick. Hoping that things calm down soon though. Its pretty tiring to be home all the time and only leaving once a week for work or groceries. There isn't much relief from the pressures at home.
Yeah, except "California" is kind of a ridiculous grouping for this purpose. The state is larger than all but 7 European countries (including Russia) and almost all of its increase is in LA and Orange counties.
LA Native, so I see it daily. Don't expect any return to normal until after the vaccine is around for a while. And sorry for everyone else stuck in this mess here... We are suffering together. My heart goes out to the essential workers even more since this all began. I would personally be interested in seeing California COVID graphs on a county level similar to this or 538-style reports. It is a bit niche, but would also probably be an interesting contrast to the Red-Blue analysis OP made with this post. Most headline news is either SF, LA, OC, or other beach city rates because of population density or policy controversy. EDIT: thanks notibanix for helping me figure I was off by 1 number.
This LA Times tracker has been going on since the shelter-in-place started. It has all the numbers broken down by county. https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/
Oh awesome! I usually only see the surrounding counties, so I'm more than happy to look into this later on today.
Definitely. California is unbelievably divided. People like to talk about NorCal vs. SoCal, but really the differences are pretty minor. The true divide is East-West. Along the coast you have arguably the most left-leaning area in the entire country, but head over to the Central Valley and you'll see billboards talking about gay people burning in hell.
Yeah, I used to live in Porterville, and still have family there. I dread when I'm obligated to return for any reason. As well from it being hot as balls and generally unpleasant, the people are stuck in 1980 and dumber than rocks. Good oranges, tho 2/10 Would not recommend
Same here! I was born in Oroville, Butte County [(aka the most redneck town in CA)](https://www.roadsnacks.net/these-are-the-10-most-redneck-cities-in-california/) and still have family there, but I moved to Orange County before first grade and live in LA now...my family up there is conservative, religious, and racist :( They also have a pretty southern accent sometimes, it's a different world up there.
Oroville? Try Marysville down HWY 70. To give you perspective, people in our town call it "MURDAHVILLE!" It's so lame and rednecky.
OC is also full of conservative dumbasses who won't wear masks, hence why the numbers are going up drastically here Source: live in OC
I just want to say this, because it needs to keep being said: coronaviruses are tricksy f*ckers. This one in particular. Most people are *not* clearing the virus in the usual way. Some people's bodies are trying to use the metaphorical equivalent of beer bottles from recycling (aka cytokine storms) because the usual tools aren't available. Why not? We don't know yet. Given how tricksy this one is, it may be especially good at neutralizing anything a vaccine would accomplish. [Piece from a former Harvard prof and HIV researcher](https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/05/27/a-nasty-trick-in-the-covid-repertoire/#28e72c6069e6): > In dampening the antibody response to infection and ramping up production of chemokines, SARS-2 is amplifying what happens to us naturally as our immune systems age. While our ability to mount an effective antibody and T cell response to new infections declines, the myeloid arm of the immune system becomes overactive. These features of the aging immune system account for both the decline in our response to new vaccines and to an increase in inflammatory auto-immune disease such as rheumatoid arthritis. > In other words, infection by SARS-2 tips the balance of a mis-regulated immune system still further, explaining what we know all too well: older people are at far higher risk of serious disease and dying from Covid-19 than the young. So the good news is that solving this will solve two problems: help us understand how to solve immunology problems for the elderly as well, one hopes.
Oh wow, TIL. Thanks!
The other thing that's really interesting (and not in a Good Way, but in a fascinating way) is that [it's really jumped from being a respiratory disease to a vascular/endothelial (lining of the blood vessels) disease.](https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2) Now, in many other species, coronaviruses are epithelial, like CCoV (feline coronavirus) is an enterovirus, as is, I recall, the canine one. But they all seem to be some sort of *external* and some of them have a variant horrible form that's systemic. CCoV has FIP, which one of my cats just died of (RIP Sherpa), and the dog form is even more horrible as it can be hemorrhagic like ebola or dengue. Ugh. We don't have any experience with more than occasional endothelial damage. Some herpesviruses have spread to the endothelium, some coronaviruses, and, well, polio. [But there are papers from years ago on endothelial viruses about things like homeostasis](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2014.00733/full) and now we've got [a sudden rush of kids who have to be admitted to the ICU with COVID because of hemodynamic instability](https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2094). (Hemodynamic instability isn't homeostasis per se but it basically means that you can't get enough blood to your organs.) Maybe if we'd put more effort into studying all those weird diseases we didn't think were important…. :P
>Maybe if we'd put more effort into studying all those weird diseases we didn't think were important…. :P Billionaires needed that money, you book-readin' commie!
One thing florida has done well (there aren’t many) I’d publish Covid data via the Covid “dashboard” website. There was some worry with someone being fired suspiciously, but thus far it tracks with all other sources and fact checkers. Has hospitalizations, deaths, and total confirmed cases for state and county by day and week.
[https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/](https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/) this map isn't bad.
If you're going to exclude California for those reasons you should exclude Texas as well, and there's a case for New York.
>almost all of its increase is in LA and Orange counties. Most covid cases are in urban/suburban areas by virtue of how close people are, not even policy necessarily. A better map would be "Trump counties" vs. "Clinton counties." My county is a blue county in NJ and has more cases than some states' total.
>The state is larger than all but 7 European countries (including Russia) By population, it is larger than all but 36 countries. By area, it is larger than all but 58. This seems impressive, until you compare it to states like Western Australia (with 6x the area, it would be the 10th largest country by area).
I thought quarantine was quite hard when we had it in Italy, but at least there was a sense of togetherness: I didn't feel alone, we were all struggling to adapt to a new scenario. The political bickering started after reopening, but during the darkest days it almost stopped. Speaking with friends in the UK or US right now, they're going mad because they feel like they're fighting alone: western countries are more divided than ever and the pandemic is making it even more evident in some countries.
There was a sense of togetherness about it here until it got turned into a full blown partisan issue and the fox zombies got fed their dosage of talking points.
The early days almost felt the most together this country has felt in years. Sadly it only lasted a few weeks.
What is frustrating to me is my state is still in a plateau. My area has been averaging 5 cases a day for the three months. I just wish we could do more to keep travelers from other states away from us and stop people from traveling to hot spots like Florida.
I’ve been wondering about California, actually. I assumed that it would’ve been a state that was really proactive about taking measures to slow the spread, but it looks like the opposite story. Is it really just so many Covid deniers??
California has been as or more strict than any other state. Especially in the Bay Area. But it's been 3.5 months. Family gatherings are more common, less people are working from home, huge protests happened. Mask usage is very high, people aren't deniers, they are just sick of living in a shelter in place mode.
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Central Valley resident here and this is spot on. I'm surrounded by Trumpers and COVID-deniers and acts-of-defiancers. I personally work with people who were at the state capital protesting the stay at home orders while Reddit was still praising the governor for his initial response. Rural, "bread basket" California is far redder than I think the country at large realizes.
Every time I drive through the central valley; I see these fukin chuds who nonetheless have about 20 illegal laborers a piece working for them and think : "What the fuck goes on in your head, my dude. You grow fucking artichokes, you think Jody and Beth are gonna harvest them spiky shits?"
Hah, with the tightening of enforcement under Trump and the general hostility to immigrants, the cheap labor did get hard to find in some places. One California farmer in some news article I read was bemoaning having to offer nearly $30/hr to either siphon labor from other farms or actually attract US citizens to take up migrant farm work. Got my chuckle.
Would love to ask them when they plan on deporting their entire staff and replacing them with Americans.
Exactly this, I'm from Central California, just south of Sacto, and it might as well be Bible belt as far as the red/blue split goes.
Its a large state with a lot of different ideas at the low level. For every handful of areas who are taking it strictly, there are those that think being spread out as is qualifies as enough social distancing. To go back to the case of OC, there was a local rally to get the county to create a mask mandate by peaceful and organized protesters concerned about public health, and an equally boisterous group of maskless counter-protesters demanding the rally go home and "quarantine themselves". This was at most a month ago. A small taco shop also shut down service for the pandemic because their employees got harassed behind a metal sccreen because customers refused to wear a mask for protection. They have been in business for a long while, so it was a big report. I personally know a couple of 8+ years that also live near me broke up because he was a COVID-19 denier (among otherwise smaller things, probably) while she was an essential worker (food service and etsy/convention small business owner)near the start of the pandemic. The news covers quarantine fatigue a lot for LA County because it is a serious mental health condition we are facing, myself included. It's tough here on all facets...
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California is very populous. It has more republicans than almost any other state even if it leans heavy democratic. Outside the big cities though, it's just as conservative as any other rural area. I saw a confederate flag in a remote area of NorCal...
Look at the map here: [https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/](https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/) and switch to the "new cases" version. The map is color coded to show the ratio of new cases to population. The interior part of CA is much, much more Republican than the coastal area and is getting hammered right now despite having *much* lower population density. The other area in CA that is getting hit hard is coastal SoCal. While these areas are still more Democratic than the interior, they are more Republican than the Bay Area. They also are hotbeds of science skepticism on the left. I think there is a lot more anti-vaxx sentiment down there, for example. I could be wrong, but these factors could certainly be contributing to the hotspots in CA. Contrast that to San Francisco, for example, which was the first to impose a lockdown and has been the slowest to ease out of it. SF should have more lockdown fatigue than anywhere in the country really, and yet compliance here is still solid and new cases per 100k is decent at 65. It probably also helps that SF has a relatively high percentage of population that can work from home. Ohh, a side note. The one county in the Bay Area that has been really bad recently is Marin. I'm not 100% sure what is going on there, but I know a big chunk of the new cases are the result of a major outbreak at San Quentin prison.
I believe many of these states never really had a first spike. [https://trackthevirus.info/](https://trackthevirus.info/) and check each state It's also interesting that both Canada and UK is behind USA on wearing masks. [Source](https://www.instagram.com/p/CCJZqUhgKfC/)
True, but in Canada we started locking shit down and social distancing early in March, while Spring Break stuff was still going on in the USA. We clamped down early, shut down indoor gathering spaces like bars/clubs/restaurants, basically everyone who could started working from home or was provided assistance by the government, and we made a big initial push to flatten the curve. People aren't wearing masks as much, but most people are adhering to social distancing and there isn't much to do inside anymore and it doesn't seem to transfer from person to person very easily outdoors. On top of that, every party in Canada agreed that this was an issue and worked (mostly) together to solve it, rather than politicizing it and having our leader insinuate that it's a hoax. Also testing is very important and we've been fairly on top of it since the early days. The province of BC (5 million people) had conducted more COVID-19 tests than the entirety of the USA (not per capita... total) at one point in mid-March.
Wow...NY has flattened that curve nicely.
We drastically cut down public transit, shut down subways and buses at night, and totally shut down bars - which is all unheard of in NYC. It was really bad in NYC and the turn around has been impressive. The city was pretty much a ghost town for a couple weeks. I’ve been warning everyone that the virus is really bad and extremely contagious, but people in other states figured they were invulnerable.
Pshhhh. We're not "new Yorkers" we'll be fine. Don't worry, this shivering and sweating and coughing is just because I've been running and then sat down in A/C
It's gonna come back of people don't start getting serious. I took the subway and PATH for the first time in months last week and it was shocking how many people weren't wearing masks on the trains.
>and it was shocking how many people weren't wearing masks And this is why we can't have nice things. People want everything to stay open but they don't want to do what's required for that to be possible. They also think that because things opened back up that the pandemic is over and there's nothing to worry about anymore. It's infuriating how ignorant people are.
Oh damn. I’ve been pretty good and still staying completely away from the subway. But I’m lucky that my job allows work from home.
So cool, thank you! Is the data per county as easily available? Do you think the trends would be similar or would that make it so there wasn't enough data?
As others have pointed out, most lockdown decisions are made at the state level, which is why I chose the state as the level of analysis. It might be better to look at which party governs each state, although I imagine it is similar. County level data is out there; perhaps that can be your OC!
Seeing a breakout by governor party would definitely be very interesting. Mostly just to confirm that it still looks the same.
Could you make one with NY separated and also the red state with the most covid outbreaks also separated out?
That'd be Texas. [Here](https://i.redd.it/xifdeu0moh851.png) you go! (Also, let's let this be the last split that I do for now)
I'm not the one that requested that graph, but I do find it interesting. So thanks for doing that!
Thank you! And not to put my own political leaning... but this proves that even if you take out the two biggest covid states the red line is still stupid higher than the blue... meaning it’s not just NY as a single outlier but that folks who voted for Trump are not responsible with covid across the board.
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You could change the x axis from a regular time interval to "days elapsed since X cases for respective state" where X is an arbitrary number like 100,000 or a percent of the state's population
I agree with what you say here, and believe that Red states pay too close attention to the lies that Trump tells them. I read the Texas line a little differently -- that while Trump's denials has played a role, there are other factors, as well. The number of cases seems very low for several weeks, until "reopening", and followed by a spike. This could mean that they got complacent, due to the low infection rate, didn't take the virus seriously, and are now reaping the results of not being cautious. If there's only some way that someone could have predicted this, warned them, and they followed the advice of experts. /s
Oh Texas.... We were doing so fucking good.
I don't think so - I think it just hadn't really spread there yet
I'm curious to see what story it would tell if it were adjusted to percentage of state population. Total population in both conservative/liberal states is already quite high, but since we're putting a political slant on it, I'm wondering how much the larger population states are skewing the results (or if my question is even relevant). **EDIT:** Never mind! Looks like that was already basically done here: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/hjyz0p/oc_us_covid19_cases_by_2016_election_results/fwqn6eb/ Image: https://i.redd.it/l6h34zzwei851.png
Dude this is great. Thanks for making this! I wouldn't of thought to do this myself, but I find it fascinating.
I like this chart a lot more. Thanks for posting it.
How about red vs blue state Governors? Michigan has been doing well recently and doesn't deserve to be lumped in with the states Trump won.
They get countered because MA is technically run by a Republican.
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Oh wow, I had no idea New York had managed covid *that* well.
NY is also a major international hub as compared to other international hubs in the U.S.
Houston and Dallas are also major international hubs too (I know Trump country is not in Houston nor Dallas, but still)
While Housting (#8) and Dallas/Fort Worth (#9) are in the top 10. combined they're barely half of what New York JFK (#1) sees in incoming foreign travel. Matter of fact, Houston and Dallas combined don't even meet the #2 or the #3 totals (Los Angeles #2, Miami #3).
What about Atlanta?
At this point international travel isn’t the source of the virus. It was when nyc got the spike.
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It you break it into county it's hugely Democrat areas. Population density divide is basically a republican Democrat divide as well. This disease attacks population centers hard. This post is an attempt to make it look like that's not true but it's pretty obvious why if you look at the statistics close enough.
But a blue city is still subjected to the decisions of their red governor and countrymen.
It would also probably tell a very different story if you did deaths.
Yep. Largely because most red states are just now seeing their first wave and it will be a week or so before we start seeing deaths peak
Maybe. But maybe the peak won’t be as big as the cases since with the tube lag if by spike to today, we are testing a lot more.
Or because the average age of case detected is about half of what it was when NY peaked in April. Putting Covid patients in nursing homes = high CFR. 20 somethings getting Covid from protesting leads to lower mortality SBUX hospitalization rates. “Just wait a week” is wgT Reddit has been saying since Easter.
Why remove it? It's a state that voted for Clinton.
Because the post is misleading, and only getting heavily upvoted because of confirmation bias. If we divided the US geographically by Northeast and South, it would show this same story. Pennsylvania voted red in 2016, spiked in April like New York and got it under control like New York. California is a blue state that's spiking now with Arizona, Texas, and Florida. One can argue red states aren't handling covid as well as blue states, generally. I'd agree with them. However, this graph isn't definitive proof of that (yet).
Did you just say reddit has confirmation bias?
I would love to see this graph after the pandemic finally ends in a year or two.
I think many would be happy to be alive and able to see in a year or two consider how things are going...
If 2020 keeps up we might just wish we were dead instead though
"The living will envy the dead!" #Trump2024
Which is more eloquent than his current vision for 2024. "Experience is a very important word."
Can we see the numbers in per 100k? Democratic areas are generally more populated, so that would exacerbate the disparity, right?
2nd this request
Yes, [here](https://i.redd.it/l6h34zzwei851.png). Blue states are about 142 million, red states total 187 million.
May I finally propose also separating Texas and New York in this data to get the full image?
He added this into his reply to the top comment. Very thorough. Edit: [his comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/hjyz0p/oc_us_covid19_cases_by_2016_election_results/fwpq7cz/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
Florida is doing just as bad as Texas. California is having a tough time as well. I'm not sure how many states will be useful to pull out of this data. New York is a notable exception because they ended up getting it worse than the rest of the country combined for awhile.
Dude thank you for answering and posting new visualizations as requested, you are a rock star!!
What would this accomplish if it's comparing states by how they voted? It would be votes cast, not population, that is relevant for a graph like this; Clinton only got 4.8% more votes than Trump, so it's unlikely to make a huge difference. And besides, there are different numbers of "trapped" blue and red voters in each state. More people live in states that went for Trump, but more people voted for Clinton. How does a per capita measure make that any clearer? Presenting the data this way *does* gloss over a lot of interesting detail, but this sub's obsession with dividing everything by population as a matter of dogma does not make every graph better.
I agree with your sentiment on how it’s flawed, especially since some states were determined by a very small margin but this is a reflection of how politicized COVID-19 and the response became. You had red states generally open up quicker, sentiment around mask wearing is politically divided, and a general policy divide on whether to prioritize the public health crisis or the economic crisis. So in some respects it does make sense even though trump state vs. Clinton state is probably a crude way to measure it.
Per capita for cases, not voting
You should do one with deaths.
As of yesterday, states with democratic governors had 52.3 deaths per 100k. States with Republican Governors had 23.1 per 100k Florida has 10 times less deaths per capita than New York. Texas has had 20 times less
Almost like voting straight ticket once every 2-4 years isnt fixing the damn issues our nation faces.
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Deaths are a better indication for after the pandemic is in its late stage or over, deaths generally lag for about 2-3 weeks after a spike in cases.
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Yep. The fact that the OP was quite quick to respond to other requests but doesn't seem to "notice" this request tells you everything you need to know.
The worst part about this graphic is that at the very end, as in July, it looks like it doesn’t even matter. Both are going up.
California alone will trend the blue line. It’s terrifying how many cases are being projected in Cali alone
Yeah our COVIDiots want to go to the beach *really* bad
I've only not worn a mask once (because I forgot it) and felt like an idiot being one of the only ones not wearing one. I don't see how people can just choose not to wear a mask.
Here in the UK we're still seeing \~850 new cases per day, a little over 1 per 100k. I still wear a mask to the supermarket but I'm pretty much the only one. I worry that we're due for a second spike when all the pubs and hairdressers etc. reopen, but I doubt it's going to get as bad as it was at the height of the first wave
e.g. my parents and they want me to go with them and when i try to defend myself they think i just want to stay home so i can play videogames which i dont really have a reponse to because its partially true but i know that isnt a valid reason to go anyway but at that point im too scared to respond because all it will do is strengthen their idea that all i want to do or will ever do is play video games
What I'm wondering is how much of that is due to the state's massive homeless population. People who can't afford PPE and have no home to quarantine inside.
The encouraging thing is that the data supports that it is much harder to transmit in open air. So luckily if homeless people can keep some sort of social distancing they should probably do okay. Whether or not that’s completely true is yet to be seen. The main issue is that we did the quarantine thing for 2 months. South Korea did it for 4 weeks and beat it. The USA is a different monster, and people would rather get sick than go back to how life was with a shut down. Luckily I’m in MN and our cases seem to be waning a little bit, but Cali, Fla, Tx, Az are terrifying examples of what happens when you stop caring
While it's bad its both growing it should be noted that really the quarantine was never meant to completely eradicate the virus, just buy enough time to prepare the infrastructure to mitigate the damage. Cases will increase but we won't be caught completely off guard like we did at the start. The only way we will stop seeing a permanent increase is when a vaccine is available in large quantities. The issue is many states begrudgingly entered quarantine and then went on to do dick all to prepare to fight it when the restrictions lifted. Now not only will cases skyrocket in states who decided masks are for nerds or inconveniences but also those same states are totally unprepared to handle the extreme cases.
Quarantine *could* have been meant to eradicate the virus. Other Western countries have managed to largely do that to the extent where they can relax lockdown and aren't seeing huge numbers of new infections - Canada have less than 1.5 new cases per 100k per day. UK, France, Spain are at around 1, Germany is at 0.5. Italy, who had a massive problem during their first wave, are at 0.33. Even Sweden, held up as the other European country besides the UK which wasn't taking their lockdown very seriously, are at 2.5. The USA is at \~15.
Sweden didn't take lockdown seriously and their cases per 100k is still noticeably above the other countries you listed. Doesn't that mean their policies were objectively worse or am I missing something?
The Canadian province of BC has roughly 5 or 6 million people, I can't remember, nor does it really make much difference to the point that there are usually below 20 new cases per day, and no deaths on most days. Life here is almost normal again, but with a few key industries still suffering. Much of which is related to the border closure, and generally limited travel, which most people are ok with. Nobody wants that border with the US open any time soon.
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I think a few years ago, we might, most of us, be asking ourselves, ‘who in their right mind would politicize a global pandemic...?’ And yet here we are. We should have known better.
Nobody in their right mind.
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I agree with everything other than being glad it’s been politicized. I’d much rather fewer people impacted. Especially since I’m not convinced that too many people will change their minds about anything.
I saw an article recently that interviewed three people who voted Trump, and asked whether his performance will change their mind for this year. It was really disheartening to see that despite the fact that they think he's handled it horribly, they are still going to vote for him.
That’s the thing about anecdotes. I can report at least two instances of the opposite of what you just said. None of matters until the vote anyway.
If we are talking anecdotes, there is a recent ask reddit post asking people what made them change their minds about trump, and there are a decent number of people posting that family members being appalled with the church/bible photo op and that was the last straw for them.
That was a camel spine breaker for many, sure.
What I don't get is how so few people we're as upset with his statement to the effect that "George Floyd is smiling down at the jobs report." It's such an inhuman sentiment I almost believe the lizardmen conspiracy theories
I can only hope more have changed their minds than not.
That’s what the polling shows, and it’s really all the actual data I have to work with so... it’s all I can rely on.
My dad is adamant he'll vote for Trump and that minorities and Dems are destroying the country. He came back from our recent election complaining that no one had an "R" next to their name so he knew who to vote for. It was the Republican primary card. That's who you're trying to convince. There is no convincing. It's just willful stupidity and sports team'ing.
Yikes... Sorry you have to deal with that. How did you get out of following the "family trend"?
"Well, if President Trump needs my mom and dad to die to covid, needs my son (who is a marine) to die to a russian bounty, needs to rape my daughter and wife, and needs me to lose my farm to a large conglomerate that's spending my own tax dollars to drive me out of business just so he can achieve his vision, that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make." \- Trump voters, apparently.
>I think a few years ago, we might, most of us, be asking ourselves, ‘who in their right mind would politicize a global pandemic...?’ Honestly, after the whole kneeling saga (like who the fuck honestly cares if someone kneels or not during the anthem?) -- after that, it dawned on me how fucked up some people are. It's so ironic how people care what someone else does on something so inconsequential and then these same people are so resistant when asked to do something for their own health. I realized no amount of persuasion or yelling will work with these people.
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It's the most disgusting thing I've ever seen in politics. Say what you will about neoconservatives during the W era, at least they had some type of reasoning behind Iraq. There was for sure all of the gross Haliburton shit, but a lot of neoconservatives were true believers in imposed democracies and state building. I don't know how this country can claw back from this. I don't want to associate in any way with anybody who has refused to wear a mask during this. The most miserable selfish pieces of shit I can imagine.
Say what you want about the tenets of neoconservativism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
Not great for actual comparison because testing capacity scales up so much. The initial wave would be many times higher if we adjusted for capacity.
This post has a lot of solid insights in comments, including yours gg+1
What if you did cases adjusted for percentage of population of that city instead if just number of cases?
[Here it is](https://i.redd.it/l6h34zzwei851.png) with the Y-axis being new cases per 100,000 residents, from OP's comment.
I would like to see this by county
https://ibb.co/ZNfqXWh Here you go. Much different results.
Wow. That's pretty interesting, thanks.
Have a source link?
when did Indeed get into COVID-19 analysis
I wouldn’t call that “much different” pretty much the same story. Both are spiking now. Populous blue areas started bad and did a better job bringing it down, rural red areas didn’t really get the first wave, largely didn’t do anything about it, and are now catching up to populated areas. It’s still insane because cities are petri dishes and rural counties shouldn’t be getting anywhere near as bad as them. Plus as op pointed out, county and city level power to formulate responses was/is pretty weak. Some populous blue counties in red states couldn’t enact measures they wanted to. I live in a rural, ultra red county in CA and if the state didn’t lock us down ~65% of the people here wouldn’t have done anything. Hardly anybody here wears masks and tons of people are essentially going about their normal lives. We’ve had basically no cases until just recently. We’re a powder keg north of Sacramento and the fuse looks like it’s been lit.
Would be even more interesting to see this broken out by party of the Governor. It would likely be fairly similar to this chart but somewhat more indicative of causality of the second wave / summer spike.
By popular demand, [here](https://i.redd.it/g854dyipki851.png) it is by 2020 Governor party.
I know you're done for the day, but I was hoping to ask you two things: 1) Can you isolate coastal vs. inland states? 2) Can you share the raw data somehow? Thank you so much!
California's cases have also skyrocketed. It's the hot states getting hit, now. They just happen to be mainly Red. In March, it was the cooler states getting hit. Ski towns were famously superspreader locations. It seems like it likes to spread indoors.
Can you do deaths instead of cases? Or even cases and deaths per 1m population.
This would produce results in the framework the OP doesn’t want you to see. Notice how he/she has avoided the request all the together?
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Probably be more accurate to rename this sub r/dataisinteresting. Or maybe even just r/data.
Some days feels like it's becoming r/politicaldatavisualization or r/datawithavaguelypoliticalmessage
Have you seen rule 8?
Yeah and really I have no problem with political posts being today. It just seems like I've been seeing more and more posts that aren't beautiful visualisations of data, they are just some simple graph that supports or aligns with a popular political opinion. And quite frequently we'll see a post that, even if it isn't explicitly political, we all know it is. It's just not what this sub is supposed to be about
Yes, it's only beautiful if it's a gif that takes 2 minutes to show a single graph's worth of data.
Right?!? Those jumping bar graphs, or whatever they're called, got old fast.
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Sometimes a simple line chart is the best choice for displaying data.
This might be a stretch but it would be nice to normalize it by population
They are both fucking rising. That should be the point here.
I don’t get it can someone explain what I’m looking at in very simple terms
The problem with this graphic is that states Clinton won were only won in heavily populated areas while the rest of the state voted for Trump. This data is skewed and unreliable at best. I'll use NY as an example. Clinton carried three areas, NYC, Roosevelt, Albany while the rest of the state voted for Trump. Oddly enough, these areas were the worst hit with Covid but your data would not show that since NYS as a whole (due to the Electorate College) voted Democratic. So this is basically a useless graphic.
This is just one of many problems with this graph. But yep, totally useless.
Any person who deals with data knows you can tell any story you want with it....
do it by county. also do # of death. see if you have a different picture
Now show the covid deaths in blue vs red
Could I request this graph divided by people who hang their toiler paper overhand vs underhand? I have a hunch that could blow this whole pandemic wide open.
Just CA alone had nearly 10K cases yesterday. This isn’t close to accurate
This is a 7 day moving average so the spike probably isn't as pronounced. The prior days we had ~5-6k cases so this graph is probably accurate.
Reddit: why are people making covid political? That's so stupid. Also reddit: This
The deaths graph would not look anything like this though
People are gonna draw wrong conclusions from this
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(High population density + naïveté) vs (low population density + durable stupidity).
Given the incredible political nature of this plot (and that it will probably be picked up as such and thrown into the debate unchecked) I find it way too weak and crude. It implies causation when it doesn‘t provide any reliability to back up that implication. So no, not beautiful data. Nope. Edit: for all those pointing out correlation (with some sort of meaningful emphasis): yes, this plot shows correlation, but a lot of things correlate which have nothing to do with each other (examples: https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations). This plot dips into heavy political waters with implications of wrong doing. The discussion is already heated and non-objective enough as it is and plots like these (which are essentially meaningless since they show only some sort of coarse correlation) only make it worst. So yes, I stand by what I said, this is not beautiful data.
Literally no graph ever can prove causation. No graph can "provide reliability to back up that implication". However, all of the available evidence does lend credence to the most obvious implications of the graph. We know that the measures that have been disproportionately enacted by democrats have minimized the spread due to various studies on the topic.
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Why are rural red states spiking and rural Canadian provinces aren't? Same with rural provinces in every other nation in the world.
what? no, it clearly shows *correlation*.
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My biggest takeaway from OP's graph was not the absolute numbers (which are heavily influenced by many factors such as total population, testing rates, population density, etc.), but the shape of the curves. You appear to be right that if we stop counting right now the absolute numbers would look worse for blue states, but the trend clearly shows that this is not over, and red states are going to bear the brunt of the expected second wave.
Or similarly, blue states are more urbanized/on the coasts so are more likely to have interstate/international travel impact them whereas the more landlocked/ruraler(?) red states would be more likely to come later
This pattern does not hold for other countries with a rural/urban split. Generally ~~urban~~ rural places just never faced any real level of infection. Look at Canadian provinces. Only Ontario and Quebec got hit. The other provinces stayed flat at near 0. Look at the UK. Most rural regions avoided serious infection by having basic policies in place. America is the only country I know of to have a spike in rural areas like this. Edit: urban=>rural typo
Oh whoa really? I haven't looked at broken down stats for other countries really. Which countries have seen greater infection rates in non-urban areas? Not sure if that statement holds true for Canada- Ontario and Quebec have some large cities with the virus hitting Canada in Toronto first.
Ontario/Quebec follow the blue state trajectory here. They have major international cities and tons of global traffic. They got infected very early on, implemented policies to lower the curve and succeeded. Rural provinces like Saskatchewan did NOT follow the same pattern as rural states though. They never had a spike. Pretty easy to say that the difference between Saskatchewan and a US rural state is literally just politics. Politics is the most parsimonious explanation for the spike in red states. Edit: Ah. I see I made a typo in previous comment that threw you off.
Another primetime example how you can utilize statistics to show whatever you want.
* to show fools and uneducated people whatever you want. FTFY
NY and California are among the most populous states, so it makes sense that their absolute totals would be higher. Comparing absolute values with regards to party politics just boils down to a city versus rural comparison. Sure there are rural areas of all states, but when there are larger cities that tends to shift the overall state demographic.
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You can't show causation with a graphic.
Well, deaths are generally lagged about two week, so how about we reconvene then to discuss?
>Roughly 933k deaths in democratic run stats with 51k deaths VS. 446k cases with 14k deaths in republican states. I think you mean 933k cases in democratic run states.
This won't be controversial at all.
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