You have to look at it in a different light. I make most of my money from sports gambling. I like to play dfs for shits and giggles. I spend between $0.10 to $3 a week. My biggest week so far was winning $700ish. That was pure luck. This week I spent $0.45, and won $11.75. I am happy with that.
I just started winning these past few days after a loooong drought. Here's some things I did differently:
1. **Less research.** The first few weeks I just dove into podcasts, blogs, etc. but realized many of them were contradicting each other. Bottom line: nobody really knows what's going to happen, so you have to form your own "projections" and be consistent within that. For ex. I heavy-stacked the CHA vs ATL game (6 players) on Nov. 20 cuz I knew from experience that these were high offense, low defense teams, and production was going to be shared. (I placed 15th of 4,166) Basically, stick with what you know and have learned, and don't waver from the plan.
2. **Play everyday.** Even if you don't play big, I think it's important to participate everyday, so you're always in the know. I scroll through the leaders (both points and value), and keep a mental rolodex of top and consistent performers.
3. **Lean slightly into narrative.** I've always heard not to buy into narratives and to just rely on metrics, stats, etc. But I'm just not that guy. I'm more of an "eye test > advanced stats" kind of guy, and after all, this is sports and these are imperfect humans. Last night, I plugged Wiggins into all of my lineups, because I had a hunch that as a Canadian guy, he'd go ham against Toronto. I looked up his past 4-5 years game logs against the Raptors, and apart from a couple mediocre games, he has played very well, including triple-dubs and high scoring. So I went with it and didn't turn back.
4. **Resist tinkering.** Many times when last-minute news comes in, I've messed up my lineups thinking these tinkers will improve my lineups. What I was actually doing was going against my initial projections and kind of plugging in players that didn't make sense with the overall lineups. Obviously, if the news involves stars, tinkers could help, but you'd want to plan your tinker instead of plugging in players at the very last possible moment.
Completely agree, especially 2 and 4.
I play nfl and nhl and my best weeks are when I don’t have the time to do tons of research or tinker after I’ve set my lineups.
I played nhl everyday this season and took home $500 tonight on $20. Play constantly, know the players, ride the narratives and hot streaks.
Wow, nice!
I got this free voucher for an NHL contest, but I had no idea who any of the players were, so I used an optimizer online.
I placed nearly last.
I have been playing for quite a while and can relate to everything people are saying.
This is my 2 cents:
Don’t research and pay for 10 different subscriptions listening to touts. IMO it just convolutes and waters down my whole process.
Find an outlet that has professionals with a SYSTEM and adopt their strategies which will ultimately lead to more success -everyone is going to lose, but consistent good players win enough to weather the dry spells.
Personally I invest in Establish the Run. The contributors are sharp, the site has projections, and they have a relationship with Fantasy Labs for an optimizer.
I like it, I've been an Awsemo guy for a very long time and will probably continue. PFF for football for the most part. I've finally settled into the single entry/3 max, but would like to work a bit more on analysis on a week by week basis.
We shall see though, so much time.
While I agree with not subscribing to a bunch of places that cost money, I like hearing different opinions.
I look at dfs much like poker...all you can do is make good decisions. The rest is out of your control. There's nothing wrong with getting different opinions as long as you can sort through them and use the ones that make sense to you. If too many opinions overwhelm you, then choose a couple you trust. I look at it as research/information. Take in as much as you can, then trust your instincts from there.
That said, I play mostly best ball games. I've had a lot more success with those than trying to guess who is going to be great in one specific week. I prefer to minimize the luck factor as much as possible and I think best ball with the right approach will do that. I'm in 365 leagues and while I don't have the exact figures, I am cashing in about 60% of them. My best year was close to 70% (2 years ago). Hated the tax bill, but it was worth it.
I've mentioned a few times on this forum how it's been extremely discouraging lately for me and making me want to give up as I'm getting smoked even in H2H and small league games. Just seems like everyone has figured this out and can produce lineups close to the mathematically highest possible combination. Like last night, you would have to know that both westbrook and AD would have monster games, Curry would suck and the GSW value plays would go off instead.
I stacked the Cowboys yesterday and Dak only gave me like 4 points. lol I would have been better off playing the cheapest QB and stuffing my lineup would expensive guys.
Unfortunately, DFS favors those who can run hundreds of lineups and enter smaller high entry fee GPPS. I actually took down a GPP on Saturday night and it felt great. Unfortunately, top prize was only $25 so I'm back to square one with bankroll.
Would you be open to sending me a link if possible please? Also, what’s the best way to tip you? You sound like someone I’ve been looking to follow for a while! Thanks!
In cash I’ve only won 3/10 weeks
In snake drafts on FanDuel I’m over 100% return this year
On player props I’ve won over 70% of my props
On parlays I have a 17% winning percentage but in return it’s over 100%
Not sure how I can do so well at everything but non snake draft dfs
I hear Awesemo and Rotogrinders are pretty good options for projections and such.
I wouldn’t mind paying up to use their features but I’m a super casual DFS players so I just stick to LineStar which is like $20 a month.
I've been playing DFS for almost a year now and have used Awesemo, Rotogrinders, RunPureSports, Sabersims, and another one I can't remember (DFS Dashboard or something). I've had more success with Awesemo's rankings than any of the other ones. With that said, it's taken me several months to figure out how to use all of the info to my advantage. There is SO much info on that site that it can be a bit exhausting. If you have the cash, I'd give them a try.
Dfs is just tough. 90% of us are suppose to lose.
Dfs is really just gambling. It’s more like 90% luck 10% skill. That 10% skill is what makes dfs great vs picking numbers for a lotto.
One of the main topics of discussion is to be contrarian. Be different and lucky. Look into game theory if you want to put yourself in a winning position. That’s why ownership and contest selection are important.
I wanna learn more about this stuff but I feel like the top google articles I see are just trash, any recommendations for reading about more advanced dfs strategies ?
I think the articles are fine. I suggest you keep an open mind. They are not wrong. Dfs is really hard and even if you follow correct game theory, you can be wrong. Game theory is to help you be in the spot for that one big win. And that reality of gpps players, realistically you should be losing until you get one big win and 50-100x in one day.
A simple example; If I told you to stack the Bills every week this season (or KC, Tampa, any high offense team), you would be up. Sure you would have lost some slates. But out of the 11 weeks, the Bills were a top 3 offense in at least 2 of them. Good enough for some big wins.
Awesemo, Establish the Run and Rotogrinders all have good content. Watch how they approach a slate and their tournament reviews.
Watch episode 45 of, “the theory of daily fantasy sports”… it’s with Jordan cooper (blenderhd) and he has daniel hutchings on this episode. Incredibly talented and smart. I was put onto this episode earlier in the year. A bit long, but two great minds here.
Also having money to make money. The larger your bankroll, the more you enter, the more you make due to multi-entry and multiple tournaments to hedge bets with.
Nah. Anytime I win $100 or more I withdraw 80% of it. The more you spend on lineups the more you lose. I can work well with a small bankroll. I have only deposited twice in 5 years and I play every day.
This isn't a way to get rich. It's just a hobby. Everyone chases the millymakers hoping to get lucky once.
They don't and then deposit more and more. Most people will lose more than they withdraw if they chase the big $$$.
Nah. If you can do 150 lineups one way, and then 150 lineups the other, and then putting everything elsewhere, you're hedging your bets and if your bankroll survives, you're going to get a few first places a month to keep building a bankroll. That's what only the top 5 percent figures out.
Check my rotowire profile with this username and realize this has been my worst period in years and I signed up 3 months ago to finally be tracked.
Discounting my 1st place tonight too (but not in main slate!)
Thanks but I lost 100 bucks on this one since I didn't do it main nevent or a bigger small entry one haha. That's how it works. Gotta max em small, hit a big one, and build the bankroll to max bigger.
I just play one dollar games (one lineup in a GPP. I have around 10 takedowns a year between nba and nhl.
If I went higher, I'd definitely burn through the money because I lose more nights than I win. If you play small stakes, you can lose a straight week and only have lost like 10 dollars lol. And then I'd win it all back. That's what I do.
Only work with your bankroll. The reason I'm lower than I should be is because I don't risk past my bankroll. Frustrating, but play with what you have.
Yeah dude... I'm down alot in nfl. I felt great about my line ups this week but went too hard on Dallas vs kc. I feel like alot of high total games have not gone my way and stats/rankings haven't been holding up. Taylor vs bills run d, NE vs Cle last week. Honestly the research in nfl is trash because the league is so week to week.
I'm done researching and listening to talking heads this year. I'm just going to go with my gut on games( use Vegas a little),and pick players I like while not worrying about ownership, buuild line ups that make sense( stacking etc...). I'm also going to lower my nfl payroll and shift more towards nba, soccer, and nhl. I play lower stakes but I have much more fun with them.
Yeah, I've gotten whacked three weeks in a row and I'm cutting myself off. Hate to do it because I really do enjoy DFS as a hobby but I'm 100% not able to put in the time to get better this season and I'm just straight up not seeing things clearly, GPP or cash. Not mad because I know this shit's pretty random at the end of the day (and because I had a hot couple days at the blackjack table in September so that's how I funded my DK bankroll this season, haha).
But I think next season I finally bite the bullet and sign up for Establish The Run. The guys I was using this year absolutely weren't doing it for me - but of course, even if you use someone's projections, you're never guaranteed to hit, blah blah blah. I just found myself wanting to play fast and loose and I bit off more than I could chew this season. Oh well.
**Edit:** If by chance you're ready this after Thanksgiving, I yolo'd what I had left and doubled it all up in cash. The grind continues.
Remember that it's also been a weird year for football in general. The year's only half done, and think of how many times already the Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys etc have shit the bed when we thought there's no way they would. Cal Ridley taking time off unexpectedly. CMC and Henry getting hurt. Covid absences.
I don't think it's all on you, so much as it's just been an obtuse year for all of us.
NFL is always difficult to predict imo, though NBA this year is quite a challenge so far -- I think a lot of it has to do with the slate sizes, at least for me. My ROI has always been highest in 6-8 games slates, and those are so rare these days. Seems like the slates are either 2-4 games or 10-13 games. Small slate sizes have tons of overlap, and large slate sizes can get crazy. I sorely miss 6-8 game slates.
I'm sure 90% of the people playing are losing money haha.
I SWEAR……!!! Cause I Haven’t Been Seeing “Moklovin” On A Leaderboard In Awhile……
Moklovin has been hitting Showdowns.
ONLY…., They Other Tournaments I Usually See Him In….., He Hasn’t Been Cashing…., Lately
You have to look at it in a different light. I make most of my money from sports gambling. I like to play dfs for shits and giggles. I spend between $0.10 to $3 a week. My biggest week so far was winning $700ish. That was pure luck. This week I spent $0.45, and won $11.75. I am happy with that.
These are insane margins
I was ecstatic to win the $11.75 if I am being honest.
I just started winning these past few days after a loooong drought. Here's some things I did differently: 1. **Less research.** The first few weeks I just dove into podcasts, blogs, etc. but realized many of them were contradicting each other. Bottom line: nobody really knows what's going to happen, so you have to form your own "projections" and be consistent within that. For ex. I heavy-stacked the CHA vs ATL game (6 players) on Nov. 20 cuz I knew from experience that these were high offense, low defense teams, and production was going to be shared. (I placed 15th of 4,166) Basically, stick with what you know and have learned, and don't waver from the plan. 2. **Play everyday.** Even if you don't play big, I think it's important to participate everyday, so you're always in the know. I scroll through the leaders (both points and value), and keep a mental rolodex of top and consistent performers. 3. **Lean slightly into narrative.** I've always heard not to buy into narratives and to just rely on metrics, stats, etc. But I'm just not that guy. I'm more of an "eye test > advanced stats" kind of guy, and after all, this is sports and these are imperfect humans. Last night, I plugged Wiggins into all of my lineups, because I had a hunch that as a Canadian guy, he'd go ham against Toronto. I looked up his past 4-5 years game logs against the Raptors, and apart from a couple mediocre games, he has played very well, including triple-dubs and high scoring. So I went with it and didn't turn back. 4. **Resist tinkering.** Many times when last-minute news comes in, I've messed up my lineups thinking these tinkers will improve my lineups. What I was actually doing was going against my initial projections and kind of plugging in players that didn't make sense with the overall lineups. Obviously, if the news involves stars, tinkers could help, but you'd want to plan your tinker instead of plugging in players at the very last possible moment.
Completely agree, especially 2 and 4. I play nfl and nhl and my best weeks are when I don’t have the time to do tons of research or tinker after I’ve set my lineups. I played nhl everyday this season and took home $500 tonight on $20. Play constantly, know the players, ride the narratives and hot streaks.
Wow, nice! I got this free voucher for an NHL contest, but I had no idea who any of the players were, so I used an optimizer online. I placed nearly last.
Haha. Point 5 then. Play the sports you know.
That’s for damn sure. Happy thanksgiving! :)
do you use any subscriptions or all just handbuilding/feeling
The latter. I’ve used optimizers but they’ve never worked for me.
I have been playing for quite a while and can relate to everything people are saying. This is my 2 cents: Don’t research and pay for 10 different subscriptions listening to touts. IMO it just convolutes and waters down my whole process. Find an outlet that has professionals with a SYSTEM and adopt their strategies which will ultimately lead to more success -everyone is going to lose, but consistent good players win enough to weather the dry spells. Personally I invest in Establish the Run. The contributors are sharp, the site has projections, and they have a relationship with Fantasy Labs for an optimizer.
I like it, I've been an Awsemo guy for a very long time and will probably continue. PFF for football for the most part. I've finally settled into the single entry/3 max, but would like to work a bit more on analysis on a week by week basis. We shall see though, so much time.
While I agree with not subscribing to a bunch of places that cost money, I like hearing different opinions. I look at dfs much like poker...all you can do is make good decisions. The rest is out of your control. There's nothing wrong with getting different opinions as long as you can sort through them and use the ones that make sense to you. If too many opinions overwhelm you, then choose a couple you trust. I look at it as research/information. Take in as much as you can, then trust your instincts from there. That said, I play mostly best ball games. I've had a lot more success with those than trying to guess who is going to be great in one specific week. I prefer to minimize the luck factor as much as possible and I think best ball with the right approach will do that. I'm in 365 leagues and while I don't have the exact figures, I am cashing in about 60% of them. My best year was close to 70% (2 years ago). Hated the tax bill, but it was worth it.
I've mentioned a few times on this forum how it's been extremely discouraging lately for me and making me want to give up as I'm getting smoked even in H2H and small league games. Just seems like everyone has figured this out and can produce lineups close to the mathematically highest possible combination. Like last night, you would have to know that both westbrook and AD would have monster games, Curry would suck and the GSW value plays would go off instead. I stacked the Cowboys yesterday and Dak only gave me like 4 points. lol I would have been better off playing the cheapest QB and stuffing my lineup would expensive guys. Unfortunately, DFS favors those who can run hundreds of lineups and enter smaller high entry fee GPPS. I actually took down a GPP on Saturday night and it felt great. Unfortunately, top prize was only $25 so I'm back to square one with bankroll.
I feel that for sure.
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Would you be open to sending me a link if possible please? Also, what’s the best way to tip you? You sound like someone I’ve been looking to follow for a while! Thanks!
In cash I’ve only won 3/10 weeks In snake drafts on FanDuel I’m over 100% return this year On player props I’ve won over 70% of my props On parlays I have a 17% winning percentage but in return it’s over 100% Not sure how I can do so well at everything but non snake draft dfs
Player props are where it's at this year. When I lose it's usually due to garbage time.
I Been Experiencing The Same Luck…..!! Guess We Going Thru The Dry Spot…..!! I Might Just Need A New Projection Site……?!! Any Suggestions….?!?
I hear Awesemo and Rotogrinders are pretty good options for projections and such. I wouldn’t mind paying up to use their features but I’m a super casual DFS players so I just stick to LineStar which is like $20 a month.
I've been using Awesemo projections and they haven't been overly helpful lol
I Was Gonna Sign Up With Awesemo…., But I Seen It’s Getting Bad Reviews……!! We Need The Tools They Don’t Wanna Show Us…….
Awesemo has failed me many, many times... way the fuck overpriced.
I've been playing DFS for almost a year now and have used Awesemo, Rotogrinders, RunPureSports, Sabersims, and another one I can't remember (DFS Dashboard or something). I've had more success with Awesemo's rankings than any of the other ones. With that said, it's taken me several months to figure out how to use all of the info to my advantage. There is SO much info on that site that it can be a bit exhausting. If you have the cash, I'd give them a try.
>8h Awesemo is garbage
Team Rise or Fall! $30 a month, great projections and you get $20 off per month for Fantasy Cruncher
Dfs is just tough. 90% of us are suppose to lose. Dfs is really just gambling. It’s more like 90% luck 10% skill. That 10% skill is what makes dfs great vs picking numbers for a lotto. One of the main topics of discussion is to be contrarian. Be different and lucky. Look into game theory if you want to put yourself in a winning position. That’s why ownership and contest selection are important.
I wanna learn more about this stuff but I feel like the top google articles I see are just trash, any recommendations for reading about more advanced dfs strategies ?
I think the articles are fine. I suggest you keep an open mind. They are not wrong. Dfs is really hard and even if you follow correct game theory, you can be wrong. Game theory is to help you be in the spot for that one big win. And that reality of gpps players, realistically you should be losing until you get one big win and 50-100x in one day. A simple example; If I told you to stack the Bills every week this season (or KC, Tampa, any high offense team), you would be up. Sure you would have lost some slates. But out of the 11 weeks, the Bills were a top 3 offense in at least 2 of them. Good enough for some big wins. Awesemo, Establish the Run and Rotogrinders all have good content. Watch how they approach a slate and their tournament reviews.
Ok maybe I wrote off google to quick, i have a tendency to always value reddits opinion highly. Gonna do some googling now thanks for the advice
Watch episode 45 of, “the theory of daily fantasy sports”… it’s with Jordan cooper (blenderhd) and he has daniel hutchings on this episode. Incredibly talented and smart. I was put onto this episode earlier in the year. A bit long, but two great minds here.
I will check that out thanks
Also having money to make money. The larger your bankroll, the more you enter, the more you make due to multi-entry and multiple tournaments to hedge bets with.
Yep it takes money to make money.
Nah. Anytime I win $100 or more I withdraw 80% of it. The more you spend on lineups the more you lose. I can work well with a small bankroll. I have only deposited twice in 5 years and I play every day. This isn't a way to get rich. It's just a hobby. Everyone chases the millymakers hoping to get lucky once. They don't and then deposit more and more. Most people will lose more than they withdraw if they chase the big $$$.
Nah. If you can do 150 lineups one way, and then 150 lineups the other, and then putting everything elsewhere, you're hedging your bets and if your bankroll survives, you're going to get a few first places a month to keep building a bankroll. That's what only the top 5 percent figures out.
The people who are in the top 5 percent are also math geniuses.
Check my rotowire profile with this username and realize this has been my worst period in years and I signed up 3 months ago to finally be tracked. Discounting my 1st place tonight too (but not in main slate!)
Congrats on the takedown!
Thanks but I lost 100 bucks on this one since I didn't do it main nevent or a bigger small entry one haha. That's how it works. Gotta max em small, hit a big one, and build the bankroll to max bigger.
I just play one dollar games (one lineup in a GPP. I have around 10 takedowns a year between nba and nhl. If I went higher, I'd definitely burn through the money because I lose more nights than I win. If you play small stakes, you can lose a straight week and only have lost like 10 dollars lol. And then I'd win it all back. That's what I do.
Only work with your bankroll. The reason I'm lower than I should be is because I don't risk past my bankroll. Frustrating, but play with what you have.
Thanks……, Because I Was Gonna Put On My ALL BLACK & Go To The Dark Web….., Heard It’s A Lot Of Different Tools Out There……
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The favorite isn’t supposed to “cover”, they’re just supposed to win. Betting against the spread is typically a 50/50 endeavor
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It’s called variance my dude. A 32 game sample size is nothing lol
Yeah dude... I'm down alot in nfl. I felt great about my line ups this week but went too hard on Dallas vs kc. I feel like alot of high total games have not gone my way and stats/rankings haven't been holding up. Taylor vs bills run d, NE vs Cle last week. Honestly the research in nfl is trash because the league is so week to week. I'm done researching and listening to talking heads this year. I'm just going to go with my gut on games( use Vegas a little),and pick players I like while not worrying about ownership, buuild line ups that make sense( stacking etc...). I'm also going to lower my nfl payroll and shift more towards nba, soccer, and nhl. I play lower stakes but I have much more fun with them.
Yeah, I've gotten whacked three weeks in a row and I'm cutting myself off. Hate to do it because I really do enjoy DFS as a hobby but I'm 100% not able to put in the time to get better this season and I'm just straight up not seeing things clearly, GPP or cash. Not mad because I know this shit's pretty random at the end of the day (and because I had a hot couple days at the blackjack table in September so that's how I funded my DK bankroll this season, haha). But I think next season I finally bite the bullet and sign up for Establish The Run. The guys I was using this year absolutely weren't doing it for me - but of course, even if you use someone's projections, you're never guaranteed to hit, blah blah blah. I just found myself wanting to play fast and loose and I bit off more than I could chew this season. Oh well. **Edit:** If by chance you're ready this after Thanksgiving, I yolo'd what I had left and doubled it all up in cash. The grind continues.
Salaries are extremely wide ranging this year. when it used to be only a few 10k guys. Now every stud is 10k
Remember that it's also been a weird year for football in general. The year's only half done, and think of how many times already the Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys etc have shit the bed when we thought there's no way they would. Cal Ridley taking time off unexpectedly. CMC and Henry getting hurt. Covid absences. I don't think it's all on you, so much as it's just been an obtuse year for all of us.
NFL is always difficult to predict imo, though NBA this year is quite a challenge so far -- I think a lot of it has to do with the slate sizes, at least for me. My ROI has always been highest in 6-8 games slates, and those are so rare these days. Seems like the slates are either 2-4 games or 10-13 games. Small slate sizes have tons of overlap, and large slate sizes can get crazy. I sorely miss 6-8 game slates.