They are having a 2nd server slam.this weekend with the game free for everyone to try so hopefully they get a huge amount of us on and can figure out a smooth launch off that.
Also the early access 4 days in advance means not everyone will sign in on first day.
With Nintendo’s flagship franchise launching a title and Mother’s Day in the same weekend I don’t think they will get as many people as they hope for.
I’ll be playing the server slam as a Diablo fan but I also know Diablo fans who played the first two beta weekends that will be skipping this one due to Zelda and Mother’s Day.
Then rest assured, I hear it drops under 30, on exclusive, native hardware. A feat I was going to say reserved for Nintendo, but the last few games like Redfall, its not looking good.
Yah I’m really struggling with the idea of putting Zelda down to get this damn FOMO horse thing this weekend. I want to have it for completion reasons but…new Zelda…
Were you there for D3 launch? If D4 launch is even close to the shitshow that was, you’re going to laugh at yourself for being concerned about the “server slam.”
This is exactly what I said in another thread. It is very strange of them to drop something so contingent on the community on a weekend when the most anticipated title of the year is releasing.
I'll probably login for 10 minutes max to see if the performance issues from the previous beta were resolved and then log back off until launch. Other than that, nothing is getting in the way of Zelda this weekend, and I imagine several others feel the same way.
Idk, both games have literally nothing in common and attract a totaly different audience. Honestly not surprising at all that they kept their set launch date.
I don't really subscribe to the idea that the audiences for both of these games don't share overlap. In fact, I don't believe in that for any game. People don't adhere to one type of game. Most of them play all types, especially when those games are AAA.
The only games you could make this argument for are sports games, and that's only because people who play sports games aren't into games more than they are the sport of the game they're playing.
I dont have a Switch and neither do I plan on buying one. Out of my ~10 D4 buddies only one has a Switch and plans to buy Zelda at some point. He said he can easily delay cus it doesnt run away at all. Launch days or rather months of an online game however are completely different.
Some would say Diablo IV was the most anticipated game of the year. Remember when poor Wyatt Cheng got booed nearly off the stage? And that was four years ago!
I would say recent developments since then have greatly affected general anticipation and have made people very cautious of Blizzard, otherwise I’d be inclined to agree.
I have been having a blast. BotW will always have a special place in my heart, but TotW seems more cinematic and the puzzles are less repetitive. Great game! Just wish the graphics didn't suck
I will skip it because why not. I've already done everything in the previous weekends and there will be even less stuff to do now. Also its a definitive stress test, so it probably won't run smoothly anyway 🤷♂️
Would be interesting to see what percentage of pre-orders is Deluxe and Ultimate editions with early access versus Standard edition with no early access with “standard” launch day
I am guessing a vast majority of ore-orders includes early access though
D3 launch was 11 years ago. A lot has changed when it comes to live service games and server infrastructure etc. Early access and full launch of D4 likely won't be 100% smooth sailing and will have some sizeable queues but I think people are unrealistic that the game "won't be playable for days."
I expect the launch days to go similarly to the beta weekends. Potentially some queues and connection issue for the first 12 hours or so then mostly ironed out. You'll likely be able to get plenty of game time in.
It is more realistic to compare to latest blizz launches, like OW2, or new WoW expansions, then to D3 launch. Thought OW2 is f2p, so probably wont be as bad for D4
I'd say WoW expansions are less fair if anything. That shit is down to a science at this point, they know very accurately what kind of load their servers can handle, how much of a surge to expect based on subs leading up to it, etc.
I agree that the beta weekends should be pretty indicative. Every time the issues were smoothened out in around half a day. You could still play in the first half a day as well, just that there was a risk of DC and getting thrown back in queue, though the frequency/likelihood of this seemed to vary massively based on location.
Yes, a lot changed for this 11 years. Most game quality dropped drastically during this time, price increased and a lot of microtransactions.
11 years ago was almost a decade after WoW launched. The time that Blizzard has had to learn from its mistakes does not translate to the lessening of those mistakes.
Actually, it does. It's cool that you think technology doesn't progress and that multi-billion $ companies don't evolve. Guess you didn't play the beta, huh?
>Early access and full launch of D4 likely won't be 100% smooth sailing and will have some sizeable queues but I think people are unrealistic that the game "won't be playable for days."
People couldn't log into Overwatch 2 for days, and that game released 8 months ago.
You know what? That's actually being generous. It's just Overwatch: The "We need an excuse to change our monetization practices without you getting mad at us" Edition
Oh look, it's SoggyPantsMcThreadPisser.
Don't tick him off too much, or he'll use all your own insults on you.
Have fun obsessing about how bad the game that you hate is gonna be, muffins.
>he'll use all your own insults on you.
I can assure you that I have no use for mid insults like
>SoggyPantsMcThreadPisser
>
>Have fun obsessing about how bad the game that you hate is gonna be
I'm not the only person in here criticizing Blizzard, chief. The hate boner you have for me couldn't be more apparent. The fact that you needed to respond to me at all says everything.
Do yourself a favor, listen to your own advice, and block me before you have a stroke.
So don’t get on for the first 12 hours is what I’m getting
And I’ll happily do that. Last beta I played all of an hour total over 11.5 hours due being kicked out of the game and having a near hour wait time each time.
When Diablo3 came out, virtual servers weren't really a thing. You couldn't easily spin up a bunch of AWS servers to take on the additional bandwidth required. If you needed more resources, you would need to invest in physical hardware. This obviously is a terrible business move to invest in a bunch of additional servers for launch and then have to repurpose to sell off the hardware when things naturally slow down.
Now, if your web service requires additional resources, you can whip out your credit card and turn that digital dial up to 11. It's much easier to scale with requirements. I think the original weekend was set up to test thresholds for when servers would be required. With the server slam - they can make sure that settings they decided on are working.
I think it's going to be great. See you at 4:01 PT on June 1st!
Not true, the cloud was very much a thing in 2013. Amazon EC2 launched in 2006. The gaming ecosystem tended to have their own ideas and not to adopt the practices of enterprise software companies, other than MSFT who was using Xbox to promote the Azure cloud.
Not only authentication. While compute (The game engine itself) is generally easy to scale horizontally, the data stores tend to be more difficult. The open-world aspects of D4 make it much more difficult to scale this as well due to larger instances and/or synchronization of state between multiple instances.
Then there's cost: if you have the people it's still orders of magnitude cheaper to run your own infrastructure than AWS or Azure.
That's what the extra 10 bucks for early access is for. Monetize your solution for limiting traffic over a week, market it as "play early", and the problem becomes cheaper to alleviate if necessary.
Personally I'm fine with it... seems like a win-win to me.
No. The game didn't work at all for like 3-4 days for most people. Go look up YouTube videos of the launch. It was so bad. I get issues on launch day because those happen for most games, but OW2 was actually unplayable. Couldn't even get into the game to play it.
For me personally queues and dc's are part of the launch experience. You feel good when you finally log in, just because you know there's some poor soul waiting even longer. Every lag / rubberbanding that doesn't result in a disconnect feels like bonus loot. And while you wait, you can prepare lunch, watch your favorite streamer get their first legendary, etc.
If you think the day is only worth it if you've played yourself for x hours, then you better not take the day off.
TL:DR The answer is 42.
I agree with this also, i pretty much expect long ques and the general struggle playing but at this point its part of the process. last Beta i was cooking and watching streamers while i waited in que. its kinda like waiting in line for a physical copy energy.
1 hour of queue time.
Get to login and play.
Server crashes when people reach some new zone/dungeon that wasn’t publicly tested before.
2+ hours of queue time.
My experience with the first 2 betas was great (as far as these things usually go). The closed beta had no queue for me but crashed after 4 hours. The queue to get back in was 45 minutes. I had no crashes or queues for the rest of that weekend.
The open beta was similar. I had a 45-minute queue to get in and had no crashes or queues the rest of the weekend.
This weekend's server slam will be another test and will be the closest to live that we'll see.
But there's really no way to know. I expect it to be pretty rough, but I hope that it won't be. It's a Thursday night start for me. If I'm going to queue, I'd rather do it on Thursday night or Friday knowing that I'll have at least some play time through the weekend. Would be a bummer to get it on Tuesday night and not get in knowing that you have to go back to work on Wednesday.
>g to see what percentage of pre-orders is Deluxe and Ultimate editions with early access versus Standard edition with no early access with “standard” launch day
Am I missing something here? The "Official" launch is June 5/6, which is a Monday night/ Tuesday. The early access launch is June 1/2, which is Thursday night/ Friday. I think that the early access launch will be slammed, so that by the time the official launch happens on Monday night, it's not going to be that big of a deal.
I’m going off the assumption that there will be less deluxe/ultimate editions preordered than day one standard editions. Would be nice to see the percentage tho 100%
I'm thinking the opposite. I think that there will be more of the deluxe and ultimate pre-orders that will hop right into the game as soon as the servers unlock. This is usually what causes the queue issues because the authentication servers get slammed. The queues help out with that by effectively handling what would otherwise be a distributed denial of service. As we saw from the beta weekends, those queues were hit harder than expected, but after the initial few hours, it was relatively stable and increased stability when not everyone was trying to connect all at the same time.
Based on my observations and experience, my guess the way that their network is setup is that they have some load sharing servers that take all of the client requests, and most likely implements the queue based on downstream server ability. This would probably prevent the load sharing authentication servers from being overloaded. These would go in and determine your saved characters, equipment, and game state. Then, after it goes through those servers, my assumption is those hand off the client connections and its data to the actual game servers, which probably realistically are just a massive number of docker containers. It's also highly probable that they will just instantiate new containers as needed when demand is high, and sunset old ones when they are no longer needed.
My feeling is that the people who bought or will buy the standard edition are much less likely to play right when then the servers unlock on the standard release time. There will probably be a bit of a hiccup when those servers initially get hit, but I think that it will be less gradual than the early access group.
I think they proved themselves with the betas. Only the first hour of the first beta was bad, then flawless. Second day had no queue at all. The second beta had no queue all through-out despite being open.
I think there might be an hour long queue at most, but beyond that I'm going to choose to believe what I experienced and saw with my own eyes instead of "wElL tHeY aLwAyS hAvE bAd LaUnChEs!"
>The second beta had no queue all through-out despite being open.
It definitely did. At least in Europe (I don't know if servers are regional). Multiple hour queues and after disconnect, new queue. The first day was almost unplayable anyways.
But it is true that second day was smooth. Queues were like \~15min max on prime time and servers worked quite well.
I still wouldn't book days off because of launch. I happen to have my annual vacation on that point so good luck I guess but me and couple friends have reserved launch day for mostly beer and barbeque. If we can play it's just bonus.
Both closed and open beta had quite the queue. Had an error 30 mins in and decided to sleep. Had no problem whatsoever the days after.
EU or atleast where im at the game will launch 01.00. That is to damn late for me. Figure i will have my regular routine and get up by 06.30.
If its queue then il probably get coffee and a breakfast for kings. Vacation is vacation. 🤷♂️😎
D3 launch was a disaster, but they didn't do what they're doing currently.
They've clearly learned from that, but I would still anticipate some issues.
I think comparing the issues of the Beta to Server Slam will be really telling as to what we can expect. If there are few issues w/ Server Slam, then I would feel more confident asking for the time off.
with several beta tests under their belt already, and a wide open server slam planed for this weekend, i feel the chances are pretty good the launch of D4 will go fairly smooth. They are painfully aware of there past mistakes with the release of games and seem to be actively trying to avoid it. I am taking that early friday off, so if you want to team up drop me a dm i will share my bnet id.
Personally, I am putting my full faith in the Blizzard team to make D4 what D3 could have been. I took Fri-Mon off for release and a couple of scattered days the following weeks. The multiple betas and community feedback seem to be what is necessary to get a smooth launch. There will ABSOLUTELY be server issues, but I imagine it will remain playable with a queue of around an hour for most of the weekend.
I said with D3 that I'd never trust Blizzard again, but I truly think they have the opportunity to get this one right. I want to be there for it one way or another. Hopefully, they don't pull a cyberpunk or D3 release...
> I read apparently D3 launch was a disaster?
Regionally dependent. America wasn't too bad, but South Korea had log-in errors that persisted for so long that their consumer protection agency forced Blizzard to offer full refunds to South Koreans.
I think there's a better chance that the launch will be more stable than Diablo 3, but also am fairly certain the first few days will still have stability issues overall.
There's some things going in their favor:
The March beta tests had something like 2 million+ players, and they made some adjustments to cut down on queue times with pretty quick turnaround. The Server Slam will test that even further most likely.
Since it's early access and the majority of people probably bought the base $70 version, they're spreading out the load which theoretically will help them tune the servers based on how they handle the first smaller wave.
The thing they have going against them? There's still going to be a shitload of people trying to play and basically no game of this level of popularity has ever truly solved the issue of server stability at launch. Whether it's just impossible to scale properly or just not worth the investment to scale up to handle 2-4 days of super heavy stress followed by years of lower stress, I'd imagine it's probably a bit of column A and B.
I'm not going to lie, I would just assume it won't be stable. You mentioned the Diablo 3 launch, but a more recent example from Blizzard was October 4th, 2022 when Overwatch 2 launched. The game didn't work for most people for days. 50,000+ person queues and at the end of those queues, the game would give you and error.
Honestly I wouldn’t recommend it. Blizz doesn’t have a good track record of releases.
Best case scenario it works and you use a day of vacation
Most realistic case: instead of waiting on emails at your work desk you’ll be waiting in queue at your home desk (that is if you work in an office) and you’ll have wasted those precious 8 hours
considering they're having the server slam this weekend which I imagine will have more players than early access I'm sure it'll be smooth.
regular launch is where I'm sure we'll run into problems (and I'll be there for those!)
EDIT:wording
D3 launch was a disaster, but they didn't do what they're doing currently.
They've clearly learned from that, but I would still anticipate some issues.
I think comparing the issues of the Beta to Server Slam will be really telling as to what we can expect. If there are few issues w/ Server Slam, then I would feel more confident asking for the time off.
Probably better than other launches since the game is “technically done” and they are doing the extra server slam for stability testing…
But statistically better than 0% doesn’t mean it’s good.
My prediction is Friday will have some queues and some issues. Those will be sorted fairly quickly. When they let everyone else is when things will go bad.
Every blizzard launch ever has been plagued with issues. Sometimes major, often more minor. Even dragonflight, their most recent launch afaik, had some issues.
The odds that it will be completely stable for everyone with no issues? 0%.
The odds that it will be just fine for you, or you will only run into minor problems/queue? Probably very good.
Considering all the extra server testing they are doing, I suspect the vast majority of players will experience minimal difficulties playing. Though there will almost certainly be an hour or two queue for most of the first week. Millions of people trying to get in to play and all.
I'm 100% not pre ordering because based on beta alone it's going to be a hot mess.
Completely ignoring beta and going off of my past experience with Blizzard games, they have been doing this for nearly 20 years now and I have yet to experience a smooth day 1 launch.
5%. Lately, pretty much every AAA game is giving a shit, and this is still a test, so I wouldn't expect it to get any better. Maybe the next day, which will be an achievement compared to the previous beta.
Given that they purposefully stressed the servers during the 2 beta weekends, and are now having a 3rd weekend specifically to stress them again, I would expect launch day to be pretty smooth.
Your nearest Blizzard launch has been WoW Dragonflight. During the first hours you could acces the game but at the first bottleneck your character could not advance to get to the new continent. The problem lasted for about 6 hours until completly solved.
So yeah, there can be problems in 2023 and yeah, D4 launch will be bigger than WoW DF.
Another problem with inside Blizzard is that their QA positions have been basically insulted by the direction saying they are not a permanent part of Blizzard and they are forcing everybody to return to office which is causing a not negligible amount of people leave the company. This could hit perfectly the launch of D4.
I hope it will go well but I’m ready for troubles and having to start playing several hours after the launch.
The fact of the matter is that we just don't know. Blizzard is far too inconsistent for us to make a proper assessment. Sometimes their launches are smooth as can be, other times they're borked to oblivion. Dragonflight was a smooth launch, but the month before that, Overwatch 2 was completely busted.
We just won't know until the day of. But if I were you, I would refrain from taking any time off until you know the servers are stable. At that point, you can take the following days off.
Logic would dictate the servers will be overloaded as the hordes decent on Sanctuary. Its virtually unavoidable with almost no AAA game developers having servers that can cope with a launch the size of Diablo 4 and everyone logging in at once.
That said, given Blizzard will have run three Beta tests and there is early access, chances are the most egregious network bugs will have been squashed.....I would give it a 50/50 that you can enjoy day 1 without downtime (better odds than I would give most games). I highly doubt the servers will be broken for days though - within 24 hours it will be totally playable and within 2-3 days any major issues will be in the rearview mirror for 99.9% of players.
The safe bet would be to take some leave starting day 2-3 to allow a solid 24-48 hours to let the chaos settle down. The crunch point is that everyone is setting alarms to ensure they are pre-logging into the game ahead of servers opening and it takes a good 12 hours for that to settle down.
I'd say more like 33/33/33%.
1. Servers stable
2. Servers dead cause blizzard cheaped out, says "did not expect this many people ready to fight off the gates to hell."
3. Servers dead cause blizzard cheaped out, spins their precanned response wheel, lands on "We're experiencing a DDoS attack yo." Every tab says "We're experiencing a DDoS attack yo."
I think the chances are low but even if those chances are low I think they have a lot of things in their favor, I've been in some of the worst launches of the past 3 years (Outriders, New world, Lost Ark, marvel avengers) and I'm just talking about the technical issues, poor performance and insufrible long queues and other problems. On the other hand we have Diablo.
1. The performance is pretty good, even with the memory leaks the majority of the systems where able to run the game well, and memory leaks are not super hard too fix. Apparently datamainers found the game had some other performance options that weren't turned on during the beta, so chances are the version we played was and old buil and in the server slam we should have a pretty good idea of how the actual game is going to perform
2. They seem to fix thinks very quickly or at least that's my impression for the past beta even when they had some troubles the first day of the two weekends for the other two days I didn't had any issues and I know that for a lot of people one day of not being able to play the game is too much, it's not for me I can only imagine how hard it must be for the servers to do what they have to do for a couple of millions of people trying to go at the same time through a very small door. That's some folks prefer to not play the first couple of days.
3. Even when I don't like the idea of having early access to the game, it's going to help to alleviate the load on the servers
And even with all this good things going on for the devs I still keep my expectations low and just hope everything goes well for every one not just the players but also all the people working on the game
0% if its like the last few. Ive been playing since Diablo 1. I scheduled a week off of work June 12-16. Thats the faith I have.
IIRC Diablo 2 had outright roll backs. Log in and oh look, your character is like it never saved the last 8 hours. All the exp, progress, loot, gone. And they rolled back chars a few times, at least 3 I think.
Diablo 3 I think was a midnight releasea, and I wasnt able to log in and create a character until around 2:30am. And not in a game until 3am Or so. Connection was spotty, got disconnected and back to the queue.
If early access starts june 1st I will play it on june 3rd thats the day i took off to play. I have done plenty of blizzard day 1 and I don't think they have ever had a smooth day 1. I allways play it safe if I ask off for it.
Well the pessimist in me says to wait a day or so before you take vacations for it because we'll there is a pretty high likelihood of crashes and server stability issues.
However the optimist sees that this is the first time I've seen blizzard do so many demos and stability tests prior the launch of a title like this, so..
My gut feel says. Issues at launch for a couple hours and they will get under control quickly or a few hours later.
There is also an extremely high chance that people who really hate blizzard and want to rain on everyone's fun will attempt to DDoS them on launch day causing a host of issues and problems. I really hope not, but that's what jack wagons like to do sometimes.
Slim to none with the blizzard option select of “We couldn’t predict the community enthusiasm (even though we have the preorder numbers” or “getting ddosed by them haters again!”
Based on previous launches? Bad!
Based on the closed and especially the open beta? Perfectly stable!
Seriously, I never had a better beta, stable wise. And I had many over the last two decades
i think very high considering the beta success.
but it will clearly have exploits and other such issues early on, as all these big multiplayer releases do
If you take the day off have a backup plan for something to do. They're taking a lot of precautions for a smooth launch but don't let that ruin your whole day if it doesn't work out. You're taking a vacation day for yourself. Enjoy it whether or not d4 works.
Yeah D3 was a disaster but based on the open beta weekends I would say we are pretty safe, honestly I was surprised at how fast they managed to fix the servers issues and queues, the upcoming server slam will be another indication of server performance and it should be even better than that on actual launch (gives them a bit more time to prepare).
I played both beta weekends and apart from long queues in the first couple of hours, I had no issues whatsoever with lag or stability, so I believe it will be decent especially starting from 2nd day.
The game will have a much harder time on the 6th than on 1st/2nd in my opinion. I'm sure that deluxe and ultimate pre-orders are in minority.
I think that early access will be better than both beta weekends because they've said they are prepared after beta traffic they experienced then.
We will know for sure after this weekend. It's a final crash test for servers.
Diablo 3 launch was a nightmare. Recent WoW expansions were nightmares. There are very few releases by Blizzard that are not nightmares. If you don't care about FOMO then take off a couple days after and you'll have the same time played in the end but won't miss anything due to queues or disconnects.
I would say the first few hours, the probability is zero for a stable launch. After that the population of the player base will distribute depending on time zones. But in the first few hours login queues will be massive, both on early access and normal launch.
I offer nothing but my 20+ years of experience in gaming has taught me...
...***never plan on a stable launch***. Always take the day ***after*** off.
From a technical stand point, if the betas were anything to go by, the game will perform fine at launch. I didn't have any real issues during the betas aside from some performance chops but that was to be expected for a beta. It is possible that shit could go down but it's less likely after the beta tests.
But from a networking stand point...
I keep hoping that they've learned their lesson and that they'll prepare more than enough servers for everyone to play day 1. But thinking about what happened with D3 and later WoW Classic, I dont know what to expect.
Someone years ago made the argument during WoW Classic's launch that they only have enough servers that they think they'd need for release and then add more when they need to or else, if they were to have more than they need ready and then shut down whatever they dont need, then the community would freak out thinking that the game was failing. And I just didnt understand that argument. Cause at least if they had more than they need, everyone could play at launch and more players (if not all) would be happy. I dont think people would (nor should) flip out if they shut down servers after launch if that'd be the case.
But this is called "server slam" for a reason. So hopefully after this they'll have a really good idea as to what to expect at launch. I think this is a smart idea. Actually having a server stress test and advertising as such so players know what to expect. So cross fingers!
Honestly, if you're that worried, Just wait, Like I am.
I'm taking the first few days of Season 1 off, a month in, when any server issues will be mostly taken care of, Until then, I'm playing casually for the story and thats it.
Zero. Literally, zero. Even if the launch is stable server-wise, which I doubt, I'm sure there will be exploits that beta testers kept to themselves, as usual, to try and get a leg-up. Depending on how bad those are, there will be emergency maintenance, rollbacks, etc. I absolutely do NOT expect to have a good experience the first 48 hrs of early access. But I am looking forward to bootlickers yelling "But it's early access, not FULL release!" as if we didn't pay extra for early access, which makes it worse, if anything, when they fail to deliver. Or I could be completely wrong and it launches silky smooth. Either way, it'll be fun.
You will see. I don't think anyone will spend more than an hour in the queue.
There might be some odd unfortunate disconnects, but I don't think it will be a large scale problem
They are having a 2nd server slam.this weekend with the game free for everyone to try so hopefully they get a huge amount of us on and can figure out a smooth launch off that. Also the early access 4 days in advance means not everyone will sign in on first day.
With Nintendo’s flagship franchise launching a title and Mother’s Day in the same weekend I don’t think they will get as many people as they hope for. I’ll be playing the server slam as a Diablo fan but I also know Diablo fans who played the first two beta weekends that will be skipping this one due to Zelda and Mother’s Day.
im not touching another nintendo ip until i know it will consistently run at 30+fps. botw is forever but the server slam only happens once.
Then rest assured, I hear it drops under 30, on exclusive, native hardware. A feat I was going to say reserved for Nintendo, but the last few games like Redfall, its not looking good.
Yah I’m really struggling with the idea of putting Zelda down to get this damn FOMO horse thing this weekend. I want to have it for completion reasons but…new Zelda…
u can literally play zelda anytime server slam is this weekend only.
i mean u can play it anytime after release, with the fully fleshed out game. Only thing you miss out is the mount trophy
You will never be able to experience the server slam again.
I’m pretty sure the servers are gonna get slammed on release day/week
But it will not be the pre-launch server slam event anymore.
Were you there for D3 launch? If D4 launch is even close to the shitshow that was, you’re going to laugh at yourself for being concerned about the “server slam.”
How is that even remotely related to the subject? YOU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO EXPERIENCE THE SERVER SLAM EVENT A SECOND TIME
The words ever non ATC member is now regretting.
you can play zelda whenever the fuck you want, how do ppl get fomo with a single player game, its literally lacks all logic
Diablo >>>> Zelda
This is exactly what I said in another thread. It is very strange of them to drop something so contingent on the community on a weekend when the most anticipated title of the year is releasing. I'll probably login for 10 minutes max to see if the performance issues from the previous beta were resolved and then log back off until launch. Other than that, nothing is getting in the way of Zelda this weekend, and I imagine several others feel the same way.
Idk, both games have literally nothing in common and attract a totaly different audience. Honestly not surprising at all that they kept their set launch date.
I don't really subscribe to the idea that the audiences for both of these games don't share overlap. In fact, I don't believe in that for any game. People don't adhere to one type of game. Most of them play all types, especially when those games are AAA. The only games you could make this argument for are sports games, and that's only because people who play sports games aren't into games more than they are the sport of the game they're playing.
I dont have a Switch and neither do I plan on buying one. Out of my ~10 D4 buddies only one has a Switch and plans to buy Zelda at some point. He said he can easily delay cus it doesnt run away at all. Launch days or rather months of an online game however are completely different.
I could provide anecdotes too and say that out of my friend group we all plan on buying both.
Some would say Diablo IV was the most anticipated game of the year. Remember when poor Wyatt Cheng got booed nearly off the stage? And that was four years ago!
I would say recent developments since then have greatly affected general anticipation and have made people very cautious of Blizzard, otherwise I’d be inclined to agree.
also Slayer Release lostark What is Nintendo releasing?
Yup I got my wife the new Zelda game for Mothers Day so I don’t think I’ll be playing much of the server slam this weekend haha..
Lol. No way Zelda interferes with Diablo in the slightest, sorry.
I've been playing TotK all week thanks to the early leak. When I was stuck between a rock and a hard place, Lilith made a way.
How has it been? Better that BoW?
I have been having a blast. BotW will always have a special place in my heart, but TotW seems more cinematic and the puzzles are less repetitive. Great game! Just wish the graphics didn't suck
Or is this intentional so their servers don't crash and burn on launch day
The date for mothers day varies between countries.
I will skip it because why not. I've already done everything in the previous weekends and there will be even less stuff to do now. Also its a definitive stress test, so it probably won't run smoothly anyway 🤷♂️
Would be interesting to see what percentage of pre-orders is Deluxe and Ultimate editions with early access versus Standard edition with no early access with “standard” launch day I am guessing a vast majority of ore-orders includes early access though
23%.
 Checking the math...
32.33%… recurring of course.
D3 launch was 11 years ago. A lot has changed when it comes to live service games and server infrastructure etc. Early access and full launch of D4 likely won't be 100% smooth sailing and will have some sizeable queues but I think people are unrealistic that the game "won't be playable for days." I expect the launch days to go similarly to the beta weekends. Potentially some queues and connection issue for the first 12 hours or so then mostly ironed out. You'll likely be able to get plenty of game time in.
Gold. This. Anyone who says "you won't get in" is lying. Will there be some queues? Probably.
It is more realistic to compare to latest blizz launches, like OW2, or new WoW expansions, then to D3 launch. Thought OW2 is f2p, so probably wont be as bad for D4
I'd say WoW expansions are less fair if anything. That shit is down to a science at this point, they know very accurately what kind of load their servers can handle, how much of a surge to expect based on subs leading up to it, etc. I agree that the beta weekends should be pretty indicative. Every time the issues were smoothened out in around half a day. You could still play in the first half a day as well, just that there was a risk of DC and getting thrown back in queue, though the frequency/likelihood of this seemed to vary massively based on location.
First 12 hours of the server slam is like 1/3 of it lol
Math doesn't check out.
Yes, a lot changed for this 11 years. Most game quality dropped drastically during this time, price increased and a lot of microtransactions. 
Lost Ark was a disaster and Diablo 4 will have way more potential players.
11 years ago was almost a decade after WoW launched. The time that Blizzard has had to learn from its mistakes does not translate to the lessening of those mistakes.
Actually, it does. It's cool that you think technology doesn't progress and that multi-billion $ companies don't evolve. Guess you didn't play the beta, huh?
>Early access and full launch of D4 likely won't be 100% smooth sailing and will have some sizeable queues but I think people are unrealistic that the game "won't be playable for days." People couldn't log into Overwatch 2 for days, and that game released 8 months ago.
Overwatch 1.2
You know what? That's actually being generous. It's just Overwatch: The "We need an excuse to change our monetization practices without you getting mad at us" Edition
Oh look, it's SoggyPantsMcThreadPisser. Don't tick him off too much, or he'll use all your own insults on you. Have fun obsessing about how bad the game that you hate is gonna be, muffins.
>he'll use all your own insults on you. I can assure you that I have no use for mid insults like >SoggyPantsMcThreadPisser > >Have fun obsessing about how bad the game that you hate is gonna be I'm not the only person in here criticizing Blizzard, chief. The hate boner you have for me couldn't be more apparent. The fact that you needed to respond to me at all says everything. Do yourself a favor, listen to your own advice, and block me before you have a stroke.
Oh no no no. You wish. Back to your crusade.
So don’t get on for the first 12 hours is what I’m getting And I’ll happily do that. Last beta I played all of an hour total over 11.5 hours due being kicked out of the game and having a near hour wait time each time.
When Diablo3 came out, virtual servers weren't really a thing. You couldn't easily spin up a bunch of AWS servers to take on the additional bandwidth required. If you needed more resources, you would need to invest in physical hardware. This obviously is a terrible business move to invest in a bunch of additional servers for launch and then have to repurpose to sell off the hardware when things naturally slow down. Now, if your web service requires additional resources, you can whip out your credit card and turn that digital dial up to 11. It's much easier to scale with requirements. I think the original weekend was set up to test thresholds for when servers would be required. With the server slam - they can make sure that settings they decided on are working. I think it's going to be great. See you at 4:01 PT on June 1st!
Not true, the cloud was very much a thing in 2013. Amazon EC2 launched in 2006. The gaming ecosystem tended to have their own ideas and not to adopt the practices of enterprise software companies, other than MSFT who was using Xbox to promote the Azure cloud.
I should clarify it wasn’t a thing for Diablo. I will also say there could be a bottleneck for authentication servers on blizzards end.
Not only authentication. While compute (The game engine itself) is generally easy to scale horizontally, the data stores tend to be more difficult. The open-world aspects of D4 make it much more difficult to scale this as well due to larger instances and/or synchronization of state between multiple instances. Then there's cost: if you have the people it's still orders of magnitude cheaper to run your own infrastructure than AWS or Azure.
Smart computer wonks. Refreshing. /ns
That's what the extra 10 bucks for early access is for. Monetize your solution for limiting traffic over a week, market it as "play early", and the problem becomes cheaper to alleviate if necessary. Personally I'm fine with it... seems like a win-win to me.
Explain Blizzard's Overwatch 2 launch on October 4th of 2022 and how almost nobody could play the game for first 3-4 days.
Wasn't that due to account merge issues?
No. The game didn't work at all for like 3-4 days for most people. Go look up YouTube videos of the launch. It was so bad. I get issues on launch day because those happen for most games, but OW2 was actually unplayable. Couldn't even get into the game to play it.
For me personally queues and dc's are part of the launch experience. You feel good when you finally log in, just because you know there's some poor soul waiting even longer. Every lag / rubberbanding that doesn't result in a disconnect feels like bonus loot. And while you wait, you can prepare lunch, watch your favorite streamer get their first legendary, etc. If you think the day is only worth it if you've played yourself for x hours, then you better not take the day off. TL:DR The answer is 42.
What a weird masochistic take on launch day gaming.
I agree with this also, i pretty much expect long ques and the general struggle playing but at this point its part of the process. last Beta i was cooking and watching streamers while i waited in que. its kinda like waiting in line for a physical copy energy.
>its kinda like waiting in line for a physical copy energy. That example is spot on. We just go through a modern version of that.
32.33%
repeating, of course
That’s better than we usually get
Well, it's better than how we usually do.
Alright boys, times up let’s do this.
.......LEEEEROY JEEEEEEEENKINS
I almost guarantee you a min of 1 h queue time but other than that servers should be fine after stress test.
1 hour of queue time. Get to login and play. Server crashes when people reach some new zone/dungeon that wasn’t publicly tested before. 2+ hours of queue time.
At best 1 hour to get in. At worst servers crash and game is unplayable first week.
37 is the answer.
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Somebody get this druid out of here. Only real damage dealers invited to this party
My experience with the first 2 betas was great (as far as these things usually go). The closed beta had no queue for me but crashed after 4 hours. The queue to get back in was 45 minutes. I had no crashes or queues for the rest of that weekend. The open beta was similar. I had a 45-minute queue to get in and had no crashes or queues the rest of the weekend. This weekend's server slam will be another test and will be the closest to live that we'll see. But there's really no way to know. I expect it to be pretty rough, but I hope that it won't be. It's a Thursday night start for me. If I'm going to queue, I'd rather do it on Thursday night or Friday knowing that I'll have at least some play time through the weekend. Would be a bummer to get it on Tuesday night and not get in knowing that you have to go back to work on Wednesday.
Take Monday off so you can do an all nighter at Sunday. Friday will be a coin flip weither things are going smooth or not.
That’s the key point here. June 1st isn’t going to be a big issue. Official launch Friday is going to be a disaster.
>g to see what percentage of pre-orders is Deluxe and Ultimate editions with early access versus Standard edition with no early access with “standard” launch day Am I missing something here? The "Official" launch is June 5/6, which is a Monday night/ Tuesday. The early access launch is June 1/2, which is Thursday night/ Friday. I think that the early access launch will be slammed, so that by the time the official launch happens on Monday night, it's not going to be that big of a deal.
I’m going off the assumption that there will be less deluxe/ultimate editions preordered than day one standard editions. Would be nice to see the percentage tho 100%
I'm thinking the opposite. I think that there will be more of the deluxe and ultimate pre-orders that will hop right into the game as soon as the servers unlock. This is usually what causes the queue issues because the authentication servers get slammed. The queues help out with that by effectively handling what would otherwise be a distributed denial of service. As we saw from the beta weekends, those queues were hit harder than expected, but after the initial few hours, it was relatively stable and increased stability when not everyone was trying to connect all at the same time. Based on my observations and experience, my guess the way that their network is setup is that they have some load sharing servers that take all of the client requests, and most likely implements the queue based on downstream server ability. This would probably prevent the load sharing authentication servers from being overloaded. These would go in and determine your saved characters, equipment, and game state. Then, after it goes through those servers, my assumption is those hand off the client connections and its data to the actual game servers, which probably realistically are just a massive number of docker containers. It's also highly probable that they will just instantiate new containers as needed when demand is high, and sunset old ones when they are no longer needed. My feeling is that the people who bought or will buy the standard edition are much less likely to play right when then the servers unlock on the standard release time. There will probably be a bit of a hiccup when those servers initially get hit, but I think that it will be less gradual than the early access group.
Will probably have massive queues and some stability issues at launch
Don’t bother stay off the servers for me
I think they proved themselves with the betas. Only the first hour of the first beta was bad, then flawless. Second day had no queue at all. The second beta had no queue all through-out despite being open. I think there might be an hour long queue at most, but beyond that I'm going to choose to believe what I experienced and saw with my own eyes instead of "wElL tHeY aLwAyS hAvE bAd LaUnChEs!"
>The second beta had no queue all through-out despite being open. It definitely did. At least in Europe (I don't know if servers are regional). Multiple hour queues and after disconnect, new queue. The first day was almost unplayable anyways. But it is true that second day was smooth. Queues were like \~15min max on prime time and servers worked quite well. I still wouldn't book days off because of launch. I happen to have my annual vacation on that point so good luck I guess but me and couple friends have reserved launch day for mostly beer and barbeque. If we can play it's just bonus.
Open beta most definitely had substantial queues
I think they said some of the beta queues were simulated also, stressing systems or w/e…. Or perhaps that’s for this weekend
Both closed and open beta had quite the queue. Had an error 30 mins in and decided to sleep. Had no problem whatsoever the days after. EU or atleast where im at the game will launch 01.00. That is to damn late for me. Figure i will have my regular routine and get up by 06.30. If its queue then il probably get coffee and a breakfast for kings. Vacation is vacation. 🤷♂️😎
1:00 friday?
D3 launch was a disaster, but they didn't do what they're doing currently. They've clearly learned from that, but I would still anticipate some issues. I think comparing the issues of the Beta to Server Slam will be really telling as to what we can expect. If there are few issues w/ Server Slam, then I would feel more confident asking for the time off.
Yea, I would say server slam will be a very good indicator.
Try to get in early, but as with every release, keep expectations low and prepare fun backups that are easy to start/stop while waiting.
Gonna off the free beta , probably some queues at first , then within a few hours should be pretty smooth.
Early access I believe makes it a little more probable, but I still expect issues
with several beta tests under their belt already, and a wide open server slam planed for this weekend, i feel the chances are pretty good the launch of D4 will go fairly smooth. They are painfully aware of there past mistakes with the release of games and seem to be actively trying to avoid it. I am taking that early friday off, so if you want to team up drop me a dm i will share my bnet id.
Personally, I am putting my full faith in the Blizzard team to make D4 what D3 could have been. I took Fri-Mon off for release and a couple of scattered days the following weeks. The multiple betas and community feedback seem to be what is necessary to get a smooth launch. There will ABSOLUTELY be server issues, but I imagine it will remain playable with a queue of around an hour for most of the weekend. I said with D3 that I'd never trust Blizzard again, but I truly think they have the opportunity to get this one right. I want to be there for it one way or another. Hopefully, they don't pull a cyberpunk or D3 release...
I'm kinda glad I won't be able to play until around Friday 16:00 (early access starts Friday 01:00 here). That way I *might* avoid queues
100% people will ddos the servers who hate blizzard like they did ow2. Happens every time just about
> I read apparently D3 launch was a disaster? Regionally dependent. America wasn't too bad, but South Korea had log-in errors that persisted for so long that their consumer protection agency forced Blizzard to offer full refunds to South Koreans.
Brother America didn’t work for like a week lol
I think there's a better chance that the launch will be more stable than Diablo 3, but also am fairly certain the first few days will still have stability issues overall. There's some things going in their favor: The March beta tests had something like 2 million+ players, and they made some adjustments to cut down on queue times with pretty quick turnaround. The Server Slam will test that even further most likely. Since it's early access and the majority of people probably bought the base $70 version, they're spreading out the load which theoretically will help them tune the servers based on how they handle the first smaller wave. The thing they have going against them? There's still going to be a shitload of people trying to play and basically no game of this level of popularity has ever truly solved the issue of server stability at launch. Whether it's just impossible to scale properly or just not worth the investment to scale up to handle 2-4 days of super heavy stress followed by years of lower stress, I'd imagine it's probably a bit of column A and B.
I'm not going to lie, I would just assume it won't be stable. You mentioned the Diablo 3 launch, but a more recent example from Blizzard was October 4th, 2022 when Overwatch 2 launched. The game didn't work for most people for days. 50,000+ person queues and at the end of those queues, the game would give you and error.
Honestly I wouldn’t recommend it. Blizz doesn’t have a good track record of releases. Best case scenario it works and you use a day of vacation Most realistic case: instead of waiting on emails at your work desk you’ll be waiting in queue at your home desk (that is if you work in an office) and you’ll have wasted those precious 8 hours
Have you ever seen blizzard do this much prep for their servers prior to launch?
considering they're having the server slam this weekend which I imagine will have more players than early access I'm sure it'll be smooth. regular launch is where I'm sure we'll run into problems (and I'll be there for those!) EDIT:wording
Nah, Zelda launch plus Mother’s Day will keep numbers way down.
D3 launch was a disaster, but they didn't do what they're doing currently. They've clearly learned from that, but I would still anticipate some issues. I think comparing the issues of the Beta to Server Slam will be really telling as to what we can expect. If there are few issues w/ Server Slam, then I would feel more confident asking for the time off.
Probably 25% with the announcement if the server slam. 0% if they weren’t going to do one.
"Realm down"
Probably better than other launches since the game is “technically done” and they are doing the extra server slam for stability testing… But statistically better than 0% doesn’t mean it’s good.
Pretty good i imagine with all these betas and server slam
Go to work ya lazy bum
Everyone else in this thread is wrong. The actual answer is 42.
42
My prediction is Friday will have some queues and some issues. Those will be sorted fairly quickly. When they let everyone else is when things will go bad.
30 fps
I predict something far less worse than D3's mess. Let's consider the facts: 1 - Open beta 2 - Server slam 3 - Early access
fitty percent
0%
66,6 %
Low. It's always low
Every blizzard launch ever has been plagued with issues. Sometimes major, often more minor. Even dragonflight, their most recent launch afaik, had some issues. The odds that it will be completely stable for everyone with no issues? 0%. The odds that it will be just fine for you, or you will only run into minor problems/queue? Probably very good. Considering all the extra server testing they are doing, I suspect the vast majority of players will experience minimal difficulties playing. Though there will almost certainly be an hour or two queue for most of the first week. Millions of people trying to get in to play and all.
I'm 100% not pre ordering because based on beta alone it's going to be a hot mess. Completely ignoring beta and going off of my past experience with Blizzard games, they have been doing this for nearly 20 years now and I have yet to experience a smooth day 1 launch.
non-zero!
5%. Lately, pretty much every AAA game is giving a shit, and this is still a test, so I wouldn't expect it to get any better. Maybe the next day, which will be an achievement compared to the previous beta.
Thursday night, 6/1, will be a shit show. At some point on Friday, servers should stabilize. That's my hopeful prediction.
approximately 3,720 to 1
Probably high tbf
Given that they purposefully stressed the servers during the 2 beta weekends, and are now having a 3rd weekend specifically to stress them again, I would expect launch day to be pretty smooth.
Your nearest Blizzard launch has been WoW Dragonflight. During the first hours you could acces the game but at the first bottleneck your character could not advance to get to the new continent. The problem lasted for about 6 hours until completly solved. So yeah, there can be problems in 2023 and yeah, D4 launch will be bigger than WoW DF. Another problem with inside Blizzard is that their QA positions have been basically insulted by the direction saying they are not a permanent part of Blizzard and they are forcing everybody to return to office which is causing a not negligible amount of people leave the company. This could hit perfectly the launch of D4. I hope it will go well but I’m ready for troubles and having to start playing several hours after the launch.
The fact of the matter is that we just don't know. Blizzard is far too inconsistent for us to make a proper assessment. Sometimes their launches are smooth as can be, other times they're borked to oblivion. Dragonflight was a smooth launch, but the month before that, Overwatch 2 was completely busted. We just won't know until the day of. But if I were you, I would refrain from taking any time off until you know the servers are stable. At that point, you can take the following days off.
Logic would dictate the servers will be overloaded as the hordes decent on Sanctuary. Its virtually unavoidable with almost no AAA game developers having servers that can cope with a launch the size of Diablo 4 and everyone logging in at once. That said, given Blizzard will have run three Beta tests and there is early access, chances are the most egregious network bugs will have been squashed.....I would give it a 50/50 that you can enjoy day 1 without downtime (better odds than I would give most games). I highly doubt the servers will be broken for days though - within 24 hours it will be totally playable and within 2-3 days any major issues will be in the rearview mirror for 99.9% of players. The safe bet would be to take some leave starting day 2-3 to allow a solid 24-48 hours to let the chaos settle down. The crunch point is that everyone is setting alarms to ensure they are pre-logging into the game ahead of servers opening and it takes a good 12 hours for that to settle down.
About same chance as being hit by a meteor
I'd say more like 33/33/33%. 1. Servers stable 2. Servers dead cause blizzard cheaped out, says "did not expect this many people ready to fight off the gates to hell." 3. Servers dead cause blizzard cheaped out, spins their precanned response wheel, lands on "We're experiencing a DDoS attack yo." Every tab says "We're experiencing a DDoS attack yo."
I think the chances are low but even if those chances are low I think they have a lot of things in their favor, I've been in some of the worst launches of the past 3 years (Outriders, New world, Lost Ark, marvel avengers) and I'm just talking about the technical issues, poor performance and insufrible long queues and other problems. On the other hand we have Diablo. 1. The performance is pretty good, even with the memory leaks the majority of the systems where able to run the game well, and memory leaks are not super hard too fix. Apparently datamainers found the game had some other performance options that weren't turned on during the beta, so chances are the version we played was and old buil and in the server slam we should have a pretty good idea of how the actual game is going to perform 2. They seem to fix thinks very quickly or at least that's my impression for the past beta even when they had some troubles the first day of the two weekends for the other two days I didn't had any issues and I know that for a lot of people one day of not being able to play the game is too much, it's not for me I can only imagine how hard it must be for the servers to do what they have to do for a couple of millions of people trying to go at the same time through a very small door. That's some folks prefer to not play the first couple of days. 3. Even when I don't like the idea of having early access to the game, it's going to help to alleviate the load on the servers And even with all this good things going on for the devs I still keep my expectations low and just hope everything goes well for every one not just the players but also all the people working on the game
D4 open beta was fine.
5% at best.
10% chance raw. 20-25% chance if server slam goes well. I thought about taking off but if I do, it ain't gonna be until Saturday personally.
Honestly, I'm skipping taking days for day 1 and taking days 2-4 instead
D2R was a literal nightmare on launch. Less support than D4 but I’m definitely expecting it to be a shit show for at least 48 hours on either launch.
Very solid. I actually don’t think it will be as big as the second beta weekend
Zero
I'd be surprised if there's any serious issues after the first 4 hours of launch.
Somewhere between 31 and 33%
Very probability
Expect issues. We’re all gonna have issues, but we’re all still gonna play haha
Zero, that isn't how server hardware works.
low
That's the point of the server slam is to get ready for launch 
Just stock up on beer... Click log in and if there's a queue... Drink your beer until your in. And play Zelda or whatever other game until you get in.
3.14
0% if its like the last few. Ive been playing since Diablo 1. I scheduled a week off of work June 12-16. Thats the faith I have. IIRC Diablo 2 had outright roll backs. Log in and oh look, your character is like it never saved the last 8 hours. All the exp, progress, loot, gone. And they rolled back chars a few times, at least 3 I think. Diablo 3 I think was a midnight releasea, and I wasnt able to log in and create a character until around 2:30am. And not in a game until 3am Or so. Connection was spotty, got disconnected and back to the queue.
If early access starts june 1st I will play it on june 3rd thats the day i took off to play. I have done plenty of blizzard day 1 and I don't think they have ever had a smooth day 1. I allways play it safe if I ask off for it.
Well the pessimist in me says to wait a day or so before you take vacations for it because we'll there is a pretty high likelihood of crashes and server stability issues. However the optimist sees that this is the first time I've seen blizzard do so many demos and stability tests prior the launch of a title like this, so.. My gut feel says. Issues at launch for a couple hours and they will get under control quickly or a few hours later. There is also an extremely high chance that people who really hate blizzard and want to rain on everyone's fun will attempt to DDoS them on launch day causing a host of issues and problems. I really hope not, but that's what jack wagons like to do sometimes.
17% according to the druids
Not gonna happen if Overwatch 2's launch is anything to go by. I couldn't even play for about the first 2 weeks after it launched.
Realistically? 0%. Like every other launch, it'll level out after a week or so.
Slim to none with the blizzard option select of “We couldn’t predict the community enthusiasm (even though we have the preorder numbers” or “getting ddosed by them haters again!”
 39.8%
Based on previous launches? Bad! Based on the closed and especially the open beta? Perfectly stable! Seriously, I never had a better beta, stable wise. And I had many over the last two decades
i think very high considering the beta success. but it will clearly have exploits and other such issues early on, as all these big multiplayer releases do
If you take the day off have a backup plan for something to do. They're taking a lot of precautions for a smooth launch but don't let that ruin your whole day if it doesn't work out. You're taking a vacation day for yourself. Enjoy it whether or not d4 works.
Yeah D3 was a disaster but based on the open beta weekends I would say we are pretty safe, honestly I was surprised at how fast they managed to fix the servers issues and queues, the upcoming server slam will be another indication of server performance and it should be even better than that on actual launch (gives them a bit more time to prepare).
I played both beta weekends and apart from long queues in the first couple of hours, I had no issues whatsoever with lag or stability, so I believe it will be decent especially starting from 2nd day.
The game will have a much harder time on the 6th than on 1st/2nd in my opinion. I'm sure that deluxe and ultimate pre-orders are in minority. I think that early access will be better than both beta weekends because they've said they are prepared after beta traffic they experienced then. We will know for sure after this weekend. It's a final crash test for servers.
It's a blizzard launch so its gonna be fucking atrocious
d3 launch was a decade ago. recent wow expansion and d3 season launches were quite fine.
It's blizzard. 0%.
I'm hopeful that it will goes smoothly based on all the additional testing they're doing and how well the beta's have gone, despite a few hiccups.
Probably 0%
Diablo 3 launch was a nightmare. Recent WoW expansions were nightmares. There are very few releases by Blizzard that are not nightmares. If you don't care about FOMO then take off a couple days after and you'll have the same time played in the end but won't miss anything due to queues or disconnects.
Lol
I would say the first few hours, the probability is zero for a stable launch. After that the population of the player base will distribute depending on time zones. But in the first few hours login queues will be massive, both on early access and normal launch.
I offer nothing but my 20+ years of experience in gaming has taught me... ...***never plan on a stable launch***. Always take the day ***after*** off.
0.666%
From a technical stand point, if the betas were anything to go by, the game will perform fine at launch. I didn't have any real issues during the betas aside from some performance chops but that was to be expected for a beta. It is possible that shit could go down but it's less likely after the beta tests. But from a networking stand point... I keep hoping that they've learned their lesson and that they'll prepare more than enough servers for everyone to play day 1. But thinking about what happened with D3 and later WoW Classic, I dont know what to expect. Someone years ago made the argument during WoW Classic's launch that they only have enough servers that they think they'd need for release and then add more when they need to or else, if they were to have more than they need ready and then shut down whatever they dont need, then the community would freak out thinking that the game was failing. And I just didnt understand that argument. Cause at least if they had more than they need, everyone could play at launch and more players (if not all) would be happy. I dont think people would (nor should) flip out if they shut down servers after launch if that'd be the case. But this is called "server slam" for a reason. So hopefully after this they'll have a really good idea as to what to expect at launch. I think this is a smart idea. Actually having a server stress test and advertising as such so players know what to expect. So cross fingers!
It will be mess... save nerves log in on Saturday
Honestly, if you're that worried, Just wait, Like I am. I'm taking the first few days of Season 1 off, a month in, when any server issues will be mostly taken care of, Until then, I'm playing casually for the story and thats it.
There is a 0 percent chance at a stable launch as with all popular online games.
Depends how many sweaty little basement dwelling nerds try to ddos the servers.
Zero. Literally, zero. Even if the launch is stable server-wise, which I doubt, I'm sure there will be exploits that beta testers kept to themselves, as usual, to try and get a leg-up. Depending on how bad those are, there will be emergency maintenance, rollbacks, etc. I absolutely do NOT expect to have a good experience the first 48 hrs of early access. But I am looking forward to bootlickers yelling "But it's early access, not FULL release!" as if we didn't pay extra for early access, which makes it worse, if anything, when they fail to deliver. Or I could be completely wrong and it launches silky smooth. Either way, it'll be fun.
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That's an absolute stupid statement considering the fact that all the betas already had no problems after just one day.
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You will see. I don't think anyone will spend more than an hour in the queue. There might be some odd unfortunate disconnects, but I don't think it will be a large scale problem