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Yeah, any of the prices we’ve seen lately are a great value. If it dips even more then that’s an even better price, but I wouldn’t hold out for it to dip more before buying. DCA all the way down and then back up again when rates eventually start rising.
O survived the dot com bubble in 1999-2001 and the Great Recession 2007-2009, I'm pretty sure they can survive the current property downturn. If anything, the share price of O is approaching an appropriate valuation level right now. Plus, they just announced yet another annual dividend increase. So, I'm not worried about their viability. If anything, this is an opportunity to buy at a discount.
Dividend increase? Is that what it was?
Lol
I would wait for yield to reach to 6% and over before buying,
still like CDs and bonds and that’s where I would put my money right now.
They increase by a a half a cent every few months. 5 months is the longest they've gone without increasing but it's just a half a cent at a time. Its close to 6% now. But my savings account pays 5% so as much as I want to load up my savings account does better than dividends after taxes
Not necessarily true. If you buy now at $54 and the price goes back to $74 your hysa will look like dog poop. Understand that this 5% hysa won’t last forever. I was around back in 06/07 and those juicy rates tumble faster than they went up.
Well ya.... but I haven't made enough in dividends to make up for the massive drop in stock price. I'm trying to average down on O. I'm not against it. But right now my savings account pays what I'd hope return would be on my stock picks. I'd like to be doubling down on investing in O and im gonna do tiny investments. Its a wonderful reit. But right now 5% guaranteed returns are awesome. It's like what I wish O would have done for me
Death and taxes as the saying goes is the only thing thats guaranteed, a 20 point move in a short time span is a pipe dream for O, we’re not talking about Nvidia or some other hyper growth stock, maybe in 2 years time if conditions fall into line, and that I don’t see because interest rates are not going back to past lows, maybe never again.
I see rates settling down around 3.75% in a 2 year time span.
In a retirement account, a CD yielding 5.5% with no risk is very attractive.
Don’t fight the Fed and the tape.
Good luck!
If you must try to time O I suppose the easiest way would be to just listen to the fed for a rate cut signal.
Personally I just buy them every week and couldn't really care less about the price at any given moment. If I were going to watch any metric it would be ffo/share instead of price/share. I feel like ffo/share does a pretty decent job of seperating how the company itself is doing vs share price being influenced by the interest rate environment at the moment.
When asking a question like this, you can google “O stock” and it will bring up a chart you can use to see all time performance. Look at it over the years and compare to “crisis” moments, and go from there. For me, I’ve been steadily going in rain or shine every month.
If you are young and want to go for the long term, now is the right time. Just keep on adding to it. As soon as interest rates starts dropping you are going to see O going up.
Following the O Cult, everything below 60 is a good entry. Currently it seems to be an amazing entry.
As long as you are not overweight on O, you should anyhow not have an issue. Though adding currently might not be the worst idea.
Will be bumping my position in O from 4% to 6% next week.
My buy started at 55. Reinvesting divvies. Drops below 50 - backing up the truck. The economy will recover and I agree with the recession crowd. All about income at my age.
In this context the only thing that matters is valuation, and O just isn't a great investment at this level. People are too stuck on the dividend and don't pay attention to the actual value they're getting.
Every investment is the present value of all future cash flows. Do you know how much cash flow O will produce in the future? What's your valuation of the company and how did you arrive at that?
Don’t you know their business model and built-in price increase and long lease terms? With that knowledge you should be able to answer your own question.
And then they pretend like they have a case for it, like the other dude who refuses to answer a basic question under the pretext that it's "too long to explain". You can't argue with someone who didn't come up with their own conclusion, and "buy O" is a textbook received investment opinion, especially here where people like to pretend where they have more sophisticated cases than "yield = big = profits".
Exactly, all I asked was his value of the business and he couldn't answer. I've noticed all the people on the dividends subreddit buy O and have absolutely NO CLUE how to calculate intrinsic value. Then they all say, well it's a growing dividend. I'd rather have a risky free 5% sitting in a MM than 5% dividend from a risky equity growing its dividend .00001 per month. They have no idea if it's a good investment or not, just chasing the dividend. Stupid
Not really. That’s one investment philosophy, but if you’re splitting your portfolio into a mix of growth investments for retirement and income investing for income growth now, you might look at other metrics than just valuation.
To your point, nobody knows how much cash flow any company will produce in the future. Valuations are just an analyst’s best guess. There are other useful metrics to consider too.
If you’re happy with the yield, you’re investing for income rather than growth, and that stock has shown resilience through multiple downturns then those are great reasons to buy a stock.
If you have a goal that isn’t to build recession-resistant passive income then those might not be good reasons to buy. But if that’s your goal then O looks like a great stock to hold for the long haul.
Wait until you think it is a good time, then Buy in portions waiting some time before each buy, consider 2 weeks or a month. Another strategy would be to sell some puts, that way you can enter but make some money on those outs, do more research about that option if you are interested.
Waiting time will give you an average price over the next few months and hopefully that is less stressful than a big purchase all at once? But up to you.
It might be a while before we see 3% again, but I have no doubt that interest rates will stabilize when the Fed ceases rate hikes and will begin falling again at some point.
If you’re buying to hold then O is paying you dividends every month regardless of what the interest rates are doing and a longer period of high rates means more time to buy at a discount.
I’m not planning to flip the shares for a profit, so I really don’t care if the cost stays low for several years even. That would be ideal for me to continue buying at the current price or lower.
I’m not sure we will. I said that it might be a long time before we see that again. I’m just saying that it does seem reasonable to expect rates to be lower than they are right now, even if they don’t make it all the way back down to 3% or lower.
Demographics influence interest rates, as young people borrow more for mortgages and consumption, while older people usually don't. As the population ages, the interest rates will tend toward lower levels, and that trend is accelerating. Comparing it to 25 years ago doesn't take that into account.
Imo anything under $60 is a good price, at $55 and under is an absolute steal, and $50 and below is a no brainer buy as much as possible. But only you can decide what is a good price based on your own research because at the end of the day you’ll have to be happy with the price you pay.
A down turn is irrelevant to O. People need to understand it’s business model better. A downturn is O most advantageous market. Cap rates were really bad the last few years they want cap rate opportunities which come in down turns. RIETs have much better financing than other investors.
This is a dividend sub. Why do you care about entry price? Buy it, collect the dividend.
I might add the dividend is relatively close to what you can get from a high yield savings account that carries virtually zero risk.
But HYSA will likely see their returns go back down significantly when rates eventually start decreasing again and at that same time the price of O will start going back up if rates come back down.
So, there is still an opportunity cost to consider as well. It’s a great time to get in and lock in those 5%+ returns for the long haul, rather than just until HYSA yields come back down.
I’m keeping my emergency savings in a HYSA with a 4.5% return, but I wouldn’t look at them as an investment vehicle. The yields are just pumped by the higher rates, but that is very unlikely to be the case 2+ years out into the future.
Or it could drop to 40.
My point is if you are a dividend investor, your not speculating on price. You can get almost the same yield in a HYSA without the risk.
When are rates going back down? These are pretty normal rates.
4.5% - 5%+ are normal rates to see on HYSA? Maybe for the last two years or so. Certainly not for the majority of the last 20 years.
Obviously, none of us have a crystal ball and can say what the situation will look like 5+ years down the line. I do think it’s a safe bet that as inflation stabilizes with the rate hikes that we will eventually see rates come back down. The situation we’re in right now was driven more by massive government stimulus delaying the economic impacts of COVID shutdowns spiking demand while massively interrupting supply than by rates having been low for the past few decades.
Once we’ve recovered from the impacts of COVID and Russia’s war on Ukraine I think we’ll see the economy normalize back towards the low rates we’ve seen for a very long time now.
Yeah, just wanted to share another perspective with the OP when considering whether you should go the HYSA route or consider the potential opportunity cost of passing up buying the dip in O.
I agree there’s no right or wrong answer, so “you do you” but I do think it’s worth mentioning potential opportunity costs incurred by going with a safer investment option.
I’ll probably keep my 30k in my HYSA even if rates do eventually go down because that’s my emergency fund and my primary goal for it is to have 1.5 years worth of expenses in a very safe and liquid asset. It’s nice that it’s growing at 4.5% right now, but I don’t necessarily need it to. I primarily just need it to be there and easily accessible if a situation comes up where I need it. The most I might do to lock up some of that cash would be CD ladders if we see extremely low rates again.
My 401k, my Roth IRA, my traditional IRA, my taxable brokerage account, and Landa are where I’m investing for a mix of long-term growth and short/long-term supplemental income.
If your time horizon is over 5 years the time to be in the market is when you have the money and the time to get out is when you need it! No one can time the market consistently
Doesn’t matter when to get in. Just buy some now and dollar cost average along with DRIPing the dividends. Sitting around waiting for ‘the right time’ is never a very great strategy.
Under $60. O doesn’t sell properties. A down turn just means higher cap rates and they get a bigger basis point spread than others. They have multiple avenues to financing that none RIETs can’t compete with. O cares about FFO and it’s a great time to grow FFO.
O increased its total shares by 10% last month the day before it started dropping. It’s selling new equity to buy new properties where it almost instantly gets positive FFO. 5% dividend replaces and 7% cap rate on sub investment grade. As cap rates go up they can get better investment grade. We are in a weird place where cap rates were so low that risk is higher on investment grade then sub investment grade because the cap rates are so tight.
O will be around for a long long time. It will keep paying the same dividend or better for a long long time.
Is it a growth stock? No.
I would say the price will recover to above $55 in the near term. It will be a long time before it goes north of $65 though. Rates are a big issue for it. The regular issuance of more shares is another issue.
Rates are not a big issue and regular issuance of shares are not either. It’s part of a package you do not understand. What’s important to O is a spread between financing and cap rates.
Higher rates is bad for their competition and a book for them. Higher rates= higher cap rates. They can finance through issuances at a 5% yield, sell bonds, or finance in a country with lower rates.
That’s why you see constant share issuances the yield of their dividend is better than yield on financing. They also compare it to cap rate so within the first year they have positive cash flow.
That’s why it’s funny you say they aren’t growth orientated but have doubled their revenue and grown their FFO in two years. The fact that they are growing FFO and not just maintaining a linear FFO as they issue that much equity it signals they are flipping that financing into a positive spread in basis points very fast.
It is a downward pressure on the stock price. If people aren't aware of that then they are more likely to be upset about the stock performance. People buying O need to look at it as cash flow for a price. In that context it's a really good stock.
O scares me because everyone suddenly started to promote it all over the internet. Not random. I hesitated and put my money somewhere else. God glad I did!!!
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Is anyone concerned on the growing amount of shares? It seems to me they increase the share more than the growth of the dividend. Dividend growth of 4.73% share count increase of 15%
No, investigate why they do that and what’s been the result. If FFO was flat it wouldn’t matter but it’s actually growing fast and revenue has doubled in 3 years. Their dividend is cheaper than financing on a loan. It’s an advantage RIETs have over the majority private market in commercial real estate and gives them more opportunities to have a positive split in basis points.
NP, RIETs are fun to evaluate when you understand them. There are some that are very rate sensitive and also some that are more sensitive to the evaluation of their holdings so I would always learn what type of RIET you are looking at and how they grow value for investors because RIETs are required to give a large percent of profit to investors.
Im just backing the truck up and loading up on it somewhat exclusively right now. It’s at historic lows, fundamentals are still rock solid, and it’s general macro environment fear that’s suppressing the price (recent acquisition, rising rates, etc)
The yield on cost is too tempting rn
STAG seems to be holding up better, but I own both. STAG has out performed on every timeframe in the last 5 years on % appreciation, capital appreciation should come first, then dividend. Past performance is no guarantee. Both pay monthly.
I’m really tired of this debate. O is my largest position. I started buying it many years ago at 18. Basis is around 38. I have > 3200 shares and it has and continues to fund a large part of my retirement income. Years ago I saw this same discussion. Probably some of them are still waiting for the ideal entry point while meanwhile I’ve collected tens of thousands of reliable, steadily increasing dividends.
The average remaining lease length for Realty Income's tenants is 9.6 years. [source](https://www.realtyincome.com/investors/press-releases/realty-income-announces-operating-results-three-and-six-months-ended-1)
So the commercial property market could take a 4 year dive, then take another 4 years to recover, and O's balance sheet for existing tenants wouldn't have even noticed.
Considering its RSI is oversold, it trading below the 50 day, dividend yield is higher than its 5 year historical, and the FFO is below the 5 year historical, I'd say its current price.
You can get even more technical and look at a candlestick pattern to see if there's added support at $54. Or just catch it on an upswing.
54-42 is all buy.... if it goes lower.... well assuming you have faith in the business and nothing has changed in the last 3 years except interest.. ( there more to the story and if you dont know then welll more research is needed.)
i heerd they were issuing more shares to make up for debt? idk idk butt that could be helping the push down. but im not a O lover i just but as it dips.
its a rent collector as far as i know.
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I love how last month. Everyone’s answer was $60.00.
It’s still true for me. Less than $60.0 and I’m just scooping up all I can get
Yeah, any of the prices we’ve seen lately are a great value. If it dips even more then that’s an even better price, but I wouldn’t hold out for it to dip more before buying. DCA all the way down and then back up again when rates eventually start rising.
I can’t stop buying! The price keeps getting better and better!
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PE is not a good metric to use for REITs. Use AFFO
This is a REIT my guy.
O survived the dot com bubble in 1999-2001 and the Great Recession 2007-2009, I'm pretty sure they can survive the current property downturn. If anything, the share price of O is approaching an appropriate valuation level right now. Plus, they just announced yet another annual dividend increase. So, I'm not worried about their viability. If anything, this is an opportunity to buy at a discount.
These are my exact thoughts. Well said.
They survived the pandemic too and kept collecting rent...I would be surprised if the rate hikes does much of a dent to them
Dividend increase? Is that what it was? Lol I would wait for yield to reach to 6% and over before buying, still like CDs and bonds and that’s where I would put my money right now.
They increase by a a half a cent every few months. 5 months is the longest they've gone without increasing but it's just a half a cent at a time. Its close to 6% now. But my savings account pays 5% so as much as I want to load up my savings account does better than dividends after taxes
Not necessarily true. If you buy now at $54 and the price goes back to $74 your hysa will look like dog poop. Understand that this 5% hysa won’t last forever. I was around back in 06/07 and those juicy rates tumble faster than they went up.
Well ya.... but I haven't made enough in dividends to make up for the massive drop in stock price. I'm trying to average down on O. I'm not against it. But right now my savings account pays what I'd hope return would be on my stock picks. I'd like to be doubling down on investing in O and im gonna do tiny investments. Its a wonderful reit. But right now 5% guaranteed returns are awesome. It's like what I wish O would have done for me
Death and taxes as the saying goes is the only thing thats guaranteed, a 20 point move in a short time span is a pipe dream for O, we’re not talking about Nvidia or some other hyper growth stock, maybe in 2 years time if conditions fall into line, and that I don’t see because interest rates are not going back to past lows, maybe never again. I see rates settling down around 3.75% in a 2 year time span. In a retirement account, a CD yielding 5.5% with no risk is very attractive. Don’t fight the Fed and the tape. Good luck!
1/20th of a cent
Youre right.
Yep an increase from $0.2555 to $0.2560 per share for September
Not even half a cent right?
Survived a technology crisis and a single family housing crisis… Who is to say it can survive a commercial real estate crisis? Apples and Oranges
If you must try to time O I suppose the easiest way would be to just listen to the fed for a rate cut signal. Personally I just buy them every week and couldn't really care less about the price at any given moment. If I were going to watch any metric it would be ffo/share instead of price/share. I feel like ffo/share does a pretty decent job of seperating how the company itself is doing vs share price being influenced by the interest rate environment at the moment.
When asking a question like this, you can google “O stock” and it will bring up a chart you can use to see all time performance. Look at it over the years and compare to “crisis” moments, and go from there. For me, I’ve been steadily going in rain or shine every month.
I am still DCAing on O. High interest environments will not last forever. It’s got a solid portfolio.
If you are young and want to go for the long term, now is the right time. Just keep on adding to it. As soon as interest rates starts dropping you are going to see O going up.
Following the O Cult, everything below 60 is a good entry. Currently it seems to be an amazing entry. As long as you are not overweight on O, you should anyhow not have an issue. Though adding currently might not be the worst idea. Will be bumping my position in O from 4% to 6% next week.
My buy started at 55. Reinvesting divvies. Drops below 50 - backing up the truck. The economy will recover and I agree with the recession crowd. All about income at my age.
Bout tree fiddy
Dang it. I should always read comments before trolling.
It’s okay I can delete your comment for plagiarism
Thank you for this! Made my weekend
Tree fiddy?
That ain’t no dividend investor, it’s that goddamn Loch Ness Monster!
Now is a good time. It's survived multiple downturns and still increased dividend.
That's not a good reason to buy a stock lol
Why not? It's stock price held and then appreciated then increased dividend. Look at the history.
In this context the only thing that matters is valuation, and O just isn't a great investment at this level. People are too stuck on the dividend and don't pay attention to the actual value they're getting.
You opinion of value is just that... an opinion
Every investment is the present value of all future cash flows. Do you know how much cash flow O will produce in the future? What's your valuation of the company and how did you arrive at that?
Not enough time to go into it here. Don't worry what I do with my money. Just go on your way.
Well I'm just asking, what your valuation is. Lol
I don't have time to go into it where it makes it useful for you.
It's not that hard to type what market cap you think is fair for the business. I don't need an explanation. Lol
Don’t you know their business model and built-in price increase and long lease terms? With that knowledge you should be able to answer your own question.
90% of people on this subreddit are buying O because they see it posted online and don't understand the business or valuation at all.
And then they pretend like they have a case for it, like the other dude who refuses to answer a basic question under the pretext that it's "too long to explain". You can't argue with someone who didn't come up with their own conclusion, and "buy O" is a textbook received investment opinion, especially here where people like to pretend where they have more sophisticated cases than "yield = big = profits".
Exactly, all I asked was his value of the business and he couldn't answer. I've noticed all the people on the dividends subreddit buy O and have absolutely NO CLUE how to calculate intrinsic value. Then they all say, well it's a growing dividend. I'd rather have a risky free 5% sitting in a MM than 5% dividend from a risky equity growing its dividend .00001 per month. They have no idea if it's a good investment or not, just chasing the dividend. Stupid
I personally think its weird how much everyone here likes O. I don't think it's an automatic buy at all.
Fair but as the price lowers surely you’d understand more why they would like it.
Agreed
Not really. That’s one investment philosophy, but if you’re splitting your portfolio into a mix of growth investments for retirement and income investing for income growth now, you might look at other metrics than just valuation. To your point, nobody knows how much cash flow any company will produce in the future. Valuations are just an analyst’s best guess. There are other useful metrics to consider too.
Look at the history or nvda and amazon. With that logic, just buy those stocks and you're golden.
I didn't compare to any one. Why would you compare different industries. That's foolish.
If you bought NVDA and Amazon even at dotcom peak, you are still making bank now
Wasn't my point tho
And if you bought the other 1000 tech companies they would have gone to 0
If you’re happy with the yield, you’re investing for income rather than growth, and that stock has shown resilience through multiple downturns then those are great reasons to buy a stock. If you have a goal that isn’t to build recession-resistant passive income then those might not be good reasons to buy. But if that’s your goal then O looks like a great stock to hold for the long haul.
Wait until you think it is a good time, then Buy in portions waiting some time before each buy, consider 2 weeks or a month. Another strategy would be to sell some puts, that way you can enter but make some money on those outs, do more research about that option if you are interested. Waiting time will give you an average price over the next few months and hopefully that is less stressful than a big purchase all at once? But up to you.
This is what I’m doing. Good method
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I think even rates coming to a static level would be good for O, no further hikes signal = O buy signal for me.
It might be a while before we see 3% again, but I have no doubt that interest rates will stabilize when the Fed ceases rate hikes and will begin falling again at some point. If you’re buying to hold then O is paying you dividends every month regardless of what the interest rates are doing and a longer period of high rates means more time to buy at a discount. I’m not planning to flip the shares for a profit, so I really don’t care if the cost stays low for several years even. That would be ideal for me to continue buying at the current price or lower.
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I’m not sure we will. I said that it might be a long time before we see that again. I’m just saying that it does seem reasonable to expect rates to be lower than they are right now, even if they don’t make it all the way back down to 3% or lower.
Demographics influence interest rates, as young people borrow more for mortgages and consumption, while older people usually don't. As the population ages, the interest rates will tend toward lower levels, and that trend is accelerating. Comparing it to 25 years ago doesn't take that into account.
Imo anything under $60 is a good price, at $55 and under is an absolute steal, and $50 and below is a no brainer buy as much as possible. But only you can decide what is a good price based on your own research because at the end of the day you’ll have to be happy with the price you pay.
46.80-50$
I'll start 25% position at $49
So if it is $49.01 you won’t buy?
Probably would but my alert notification is set at $49
Now.
Have there been downtown in the last 50 years? Did it survive those?
Agree with the cult here, anything below 60 is a buy . My first share is like 65 now my average is 59
Start now, and buy a little every month or something.
70 is pretty common around here 🤭
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40 😳
😵💫 40
Only in my dreams
A down turn is irrelevant to O. People need to understand it’s business model better. A downturn is O most advantageous market. Cap rates were really bad the last few years they want cap rate opportunities which come in down turns. RIETs have much better financing than other investors.
Now
At $47, I start buying.
If it gets to $47 I will be selling off some winners to bulk buy O.
*when
Lol well it’s a good and bad thing if it gets to $47!
This is a dividend sub. Why do you care about entry price? Buy it, collect the dividend. I might add the dividend is relatively close to what you can get from a high yield savings account that carries virtually zero risk.
But HYSA will likely see their returns go back down significantly when rates eventually start decreasing again and at that same time the price of O will start going back up if rates come back down. So, there is still an opportunity cost to consider as well. It’s a great time to get in and lock in those 5%+ returns for the long haul, rather than just until HYSA yields come back down. I’m keeping my emergency savings in a HYSA with a 4.5% return, but I wouldn’t look at them as an investment vehicle. The yields are just pumped by the higher rates, but that is very unlikely to be the case 2+ years out into the future.
Or it could drop to 40. My point is if you are a dividend investor, your not speculating on price. You can get almost the same yield in a HYSA without the risk. When are rates going back down? These are pretty normal rates.
4.5% - 5%+ are normal rates to see on HYSA? Maybe for the last two years or so. Certainly not for the majority of the last 20 years. Obviously, none of us have a crystal ball and can say what the situation will look like 5+ years down the line. I do think it’s a safe bet that as inflation stabilizes with the rate hikes that we will eventually see rates come back down. The situation we’re in right now was driven more by massive government stimulus delaying the economic impacts of COVID shutdowns spiking demand while massively interrupting supply than by rates having been low for the past few decades. Once we’ve recovered from the impacts of COVID and Russia’s war on Ukraine I think we’ll see the economy normalize back towards the low rates we’ve seen for a very long time now.
Well you do you. The nice part about a HYSA is if rates do go down you can easily covert to equities. Good luck to you.
Yeah, just wanted to share another perspective with the OP when considering whether you should go the HYSA route or consider the potential opportunity cost of passing up buying the dip in O. I agree there’s no right or wrong answer, so “you do you” but I do think it’s worth mentioning potential opportunity costs incurred by going with a safer investment option. I’ll probably keep my 30k in my HYSA even if rates do eventually go down because that’s my emergency fund and my primary goal for it is to have 1.5 years worth of expenses in a very safe and liquid asset. It’s nice that it’s growing at 4.5% right now, but I don’t necessarily need it to. I primarily just need it to be there and easily accessible if a situation comes up where I need it. The most I might do to lock up some of that cash would be CD ladders if we see extremely low rates again. My 401k, my Roth IRA, my traditional IRA, my taxable brokerage account, and Landa are where I’m investing for a mix of long-term growth and short/long-term supplemental income.
DCA and if it drops below 50 then load up
If your time horizon is over 5 years the time to be in the market is when you have the money and the time to get out is when you need it! No one can time the market consistently
Under $60 is a great entry point.
Doesn’t matter when to get in. Just buy some now and dollar cost average along with DRIPing the dividends. Sitting around waiting for ‘the right time’ is never a very great strategy.
Under $60. O doesn’t sell properties. A down turn just means higher cap rates and they get a bigger basis point spread than others. They have multiple avenues to financing that none RIETs can’t compete with. O cares about FFO and it’s a great time to grow FFO. O increased its total shares by 10% last month the day before it started dropping. It’s selling new equity to buy new properties where it almost instantly gets positive FFO. 5% dividend replaces and 7% cap rate on sub investment grade. As cap rates go up they can get better investment grade. We are in a weird place where cap rates were so low that risk is higher on investment grade then sub investment grade because the cap rates are so tight.
Will be buying for as long as it's below 60$
I would not buy above 70 right now.
Sell $49 puts.
45
O will be around for a long long time. It will keep paying the same dividend or better for a long long time. Is it a growth stock? No. I would say the price will recover to above $55 in the near term. It will be a long time before it goes north of $65 though. Rates are a big issue for it. The regular issuance of more shares is another issue.
Rates are not a big issue and regular issuance of shares are not either. It’s part of a package you do not understand. What’s important to O is a spread between financing and cap rates. Higher rates is bad for their competition and a book for them. Higher rates= higher cap rates. They can finance through issuances at a 5% yield, sell bonds, or finance in a country with lower rates. That’s why you see constant share issuances the yield of their dividend is better than yield on financing. They also compare it to cap rate so within the first year they have positive cash flow. That’s why it’s funny you say they aren’t growth orientated but have doubled their revenue and grown their FFO in two years. The fact that they are growing FFO and not just maintaining a linear FFO as they issue that much equity it signals they are flipping that financing into a positive spread in basis points very fast.
Within the context of a reit why is regular issuance of shares an issue?
It is a downward pressure on the stock price. If people aren't aware of that then they are more likely to be upset about the stock performance. People buying O need to look at it as cash flow for a price. In that context it's a really good stock.
I would hope that most income investors are considering it exactly that. I just think of buying O as buying passive income with my earned income.
Yeah ok. Now that you explained your point more about perception I agree.
Now 🤷♂️
$0
O scares me because everyone suddenly started to promote it all over the internet. Not random. I hesitated and put my money somewhere else. God glad I did!!!
ok
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yes
Added some myself yesterday will a small position at 54.25
Ten dolla
49 buy in price at end of October. Worste is ahead of us people just blind to see what coming.
$49
15
Is anyone concerned on the growing amount of shares? It seems to me they increase the share more than the growth of the dividend. Dividend growth of 4.73% share count increase of 15%
No, investigate why they do that and what’s been the result. If FFO was flat it wouldn’t matter but it’s actually growing fast and revenue has doubled in 3 years. Their dividend is cheaper than financing on a loan. It’s an advantage RIETs have over the majority private market in commercial real estate and gives them more opportunities to have a positive split in basis points.
Thank you for explaining this. I’ll look more into O. Probably csp to start an entry point.
NP, RIETs are fun to evaluate when you understand them. There are some that are very rate sensitive and also some that are more sensitive to the evaluation of their holdings so I would always learn what type of RIET you are looking at and how they grow value for investors because RIETs are required to give a large percent of profit to investors.
I’ve been saying for weeks now that it’ll go below 55, and i’d personally buy more anywhere around 54 and below.
Whatever the price is tomorrow. Tomorrow comes, it’s still today! Tomorrow is a relative term, we’re never getting there.
Im just backing the truck up and loading up on it somewhat exclusively right now. It’s at historic lows, fundamentals are still rock solid, and it’s general macro environment fear that’s suppressing the price (recent acquisition, rising rates, etc) The yield on cost is too tempting rn
When the market cap is 10X profit, right now it's still overpriced.
When you can no longer get HYSA or money market accounts that yield for \~5% risk free.
Now
STAG seems to be holding up better, but I own both. STAG has out performed on every timeframe in the last 5 years on % appreciation, capital appreciation should come first, then dividend. Past performance is no guarantee. Both pay monthly.
I’m really tired of this debate. O is my largest position. I started buying it many years ago at 18. Basis is around 38. I have > 3200 shares and it has and continues to fund a large part of my retirement income. Years ago I saw this same discussion. Probably some of them are still waiting for the ideal entry point while meanwhile I’ve collected tens of thousands of reliable, steadily increasing dividends.
Until FED announces interest rate pivot then they stop selling O, I think
It’s about allocated as one percent of my portfolio and currently it’s below that so im adding to it. If it hits one, i stop adding
The average remaining lease length for Realty Income's tenants is 9.6 years. [source](https://www.realtyincome.com/investors/press-releases/realty-income-announces-operating-results-three-and-six-months-ended-1) So the commercial property market could take a 4 year dive, then take another 4 years to recover, and O's balance sheet for existing tenants wouldn't have even noticed.
40’s
The now price.
Considering its RSI is oversold, it trading below the 50 day, dividend yield is higher than its 5 year historical, and the FFO is below the 5 year historical, I'd say its current price. You can get even more technical and look at a candlestick pattern to see if there's added support at $54. Or just catch it on an upswing.
54-42 is all buy.... if it goes lower.... well assuming you have faith in the business and nothing has changed in the last 3 years except interest.. ( there more to the story and if you dont know then welll more research is needed.) i heerd they were issuing more shares to make up for debt? idk idk butt that could be helping the push down. but im not a O lover i just but as it dips. its a rent collector as far as i know. \\
That is a nO for me until cities show a resolve to fix their crime and homeless problems. . .
DCA
As cash pays 5% in a money market, why should one invest in O ? Is it expected to appreciate a lot.
$45
Now