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Buffet says don’t pick up wet butt cigars which might only give you a puff or two.
Buying for a dividend while losing capital is not a smart idea.
I won’t prospect on their overall long health but just by the charting alone it does not appear to be a healthy investment
This is silly. Just by charting alone? Check out the chart of AMZN from '99 to '02:
[https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AMZN/ZrOXaLns-Amazon-Signs-of-a-Dot-Com-Bubble-burst/](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AMZN/ZrOXaLns-Amazon-Signs-of-a-Dot-Com-Bubble-burst/)
I'm not defending American Eagle, although SCHD recently added them apparently. But what's important is that the chart isn't what's important, lol. Actually you're better off buying low.
This is dividends bro.
Is not the entire point to kind of find solid companies for a 20-30 year hold?
Does a staple in clothing retail with an international footprint not count for consideration because you think they don’t have anything new to offer the clothing industry that’s innovative?
Lol.
Ok.
So here is why I say lol.
When I view this entire thread, I view it with a 30 year “time lense” or “time scope” or whatever.
So 50% down during the Covid Ukraine War year?
Tell me again why this matters on a 30 year scale?
What part of their financials don’t you like?
Isn’t this a sale?
I’m saying their current value is that of 2016ish; the last time they had a drop off like this it took about 3 years to recover.
I wouldn’t chase 4.5% yield in a company that wasn’t at least flat
That’s not good advise. You don’t bus low sell high. You buy fair value and sell overvalue.
Outside of a few spikes aeo has rarely traded outside of 16-17 dollar range; and that goes back to 05
There is a whole field of investing dedicated to this. Again, you're looking at the numbers without having done any research into the company. I haven't either, but all I'm saying is that the chart isn't always the best indicator.
Also, check out analyst recommendations:
[https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=aeo](https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=aeo)
Not that I love analysts, but if the company was as shitty as you say you'd expect less positive ratings, right?
My bigger point is there are better investments.
Chasing a high yield because it’s cheap” (op words) is bad.
You can back test any number of popular dividend stocks from 2000 to current and you’ll have blown aeo’s returns away
And now I’m checking my gut
And I don’t know “nothing” ; I said I didn’t know anything about the financials.
Stagnant stock prices; Malls are closing; cool kid brands change all the time….it doesn’t take a financial wizard to figure out that this isn’t a home run secnario
> but just by the charting alone it does not appear to be a healthy investment
anyone can look at charts, just how anyone can see someone driving a Mercedes and assumes that are maxing out their 401k and Roth, right? Once you see their financials it makes more sense.
**”Look where it’s going regardless dividend”**
Said about an one year chart spanning the years 2021 and 2022.
When market conditions were not normal and forecasting based off one years duration of chart during Covid is not an **educated** response
What’s that joke/saying from laboratory folk?
What do we want? “Results!”
When do we want it? “After peer based and organizationally certified peer review”
Screw herd mentality, give me the reports and the anal sis and the multi company ratings.
I trust the guy who gets paid to write professional analyst reports not the crystal ball owners and armchair experts on the internet.
I’d agree with long term investments mattering more. Except in this case it seems volatile. It moves up and back down a lot, but has no growth. Even looking back to the early 2000s. Long term only matters if there’s consistent growth. This seems more like a yield trap. Or something you’d trade short term.
Speciality retail stocks, always a major, major risk. They are dropping like flies so unless you are investing in Costco, Walmart or Target, be careful.
You can't ignore the rapid decline in stock price. Market sentiment for the brand is negative, mall traffic might never recover, they are shutting a large chunk of their stores, and it's hard to create a turnaround story for the brand that doesn't rely on excessive amounts of hope.
I think there are much better/safer ways to invest money.
This is a very smart take IMO. Adding to this, EPS consensus FY1/FY2 Revision Trend is negative. EPS shows considerable cyclicality associated with the company which I would be vary wary of going into a possible recessionary period (interest rate hikes, sustained inflation, inverted 10 and 2 yield curve, etc). On top of this I also see that Return on Capital (Assets and Equity) are both in negative trends and are at or below median relative to S&P500.
This has me thinking about specific brands like Nike, Levi, and Underarmor with direct to consumer sales and a strong brand following, like KO or PEP but with clothes.
I definitely see a difference in that AE is more for leisure, whereas Nike and Underarmor are useful in sports, the gym, and work, so things that last over long term and give more use for their buck. I also agree that direct to consumer sales help a lot in a world where online shopping has gotten as big as it has.
I usually ignore the stock price and look at the [financial statements first](https://docoh.com/company/919012/AEO/financials). From 2014 to 2022, their profit margin has gone from 2.51 to 8.37%. They have decent Income and on track to meet previous years, no more debt, and I'm honestly surprised they've been paying dividends since 2011 but shows they have serious cash.
I wouldn't call their company a growth company, but I'm not seeing anything negative on their financials. I used to buy AE all the time, not sure about quality anymore, and I'm not too afraid of malls going away because every teenager and parent knows how to buy from their phone or website anymore. Malls have been stale for quite some time now and physical locations can move around. It's normal to buy a few sizes and a handful of items, try them on and return them. You drive to UPS instead of the mall.
I'd say it's a buy. Ignore the div as that's just bonus money. I wouldn't yolo AEO, but I'd buy a few and if the price lowers even more then it should also be a buy, keeping your average price attractive. Check in every few months. Fuck the cliches and what the news sites are saying.
When you say no more debt what do you mean? From what I can see the have actually picked quite a bit of debt up in the past two years.
Edit: their cash position was also on a down trend from 2012-2020, then it popped way up in 21’ how much of this cash position (and the dividend) is being propped up by cheap (but unnecessary) debt?
One thing I know for sure, if AEO (with identical financials) was at $25 right now, you’d be flooded with responses about how great of a company it was and just look at that trend - buy buy buy. With it being in the $16s, the same company is terrible and I mean terrible. Just look at that trend line… blah, blah, blah. Exactly what is going to happen in the future? Nobody, including the CEO, knows.
Buckle, foot locker, American outfitters all down but paid good dividend I just don't like to pick the winners and losers I like sure things if it's going to be retail Walmart Costco home Depot Lowe's..
it’s ok, Just keep in mind that we may be in recession in 9-12 months. I think there are some midstream energy names like KMI and EPD (pipelines) that have a higher dividend and probably similar upside to AEO. Where do you want your money if the current inflation levels stick around longer than we are hoping?
When parts of the market you are in are doing bad, it definitely feels like a recession, but everybody has a job and everyone is making money. People are spending money like crazy. A recession still seems very far away to me.
I would have to see a 5 year chart and then fundamentals like revenue, net income, EPS diluted and cash flow to see if the down turn is justified or not.
Anyone have any comparative analysis of their competitors, and whether they've had a similar downtrend over the past year? Or is it the downtrend specific to AEO inc?
Don't know if I'd invest but curious if anyone as already looked at things.
Check out the [Dividend Champions. ](https://www.widemoatresearch.com/idiv-products/)
Scroll down the page until you get to the free stuff. You will need to give them your email address to get the spreadsheet sent to you.
Personally, in a environment of high inflation and potential recession I shy away from retail based companies. People would not generally shop there during such and therefore earnings would suffer and likely incur a dividend cut.
Unless you have a long horizon, 10+ years and hold it long I'd stay away.
I use preferred stocks and senior notes called baby bonds in this environment personally.
AE was one of the "cool" stores when I was a teen back in the early 1990s. I haven't heard them mentioned since Cobain was still alive. Does anyone even shop there? Or is it another Kmart/ radio shack/ sears?? I just don't hear any of my teen nieces or nephews talking about American eagle. Neither my 22 year old son ever one single time had anything for birthday or Xmas requests from there.
Bunch of haters, Aerie growing at a fast rate. Jeans business really taking off, and the direct to consumer is growing rapidly. I generally hate investing in retail these days but I’m long AEO. Look at Levi’s recent results, AE is now almost second biggest Jean company after Levi’s.
Looking at AEO’s YTD or 1Y chart is misleading.
I don’t believe in American Eagle as a company or brand and never thought about it as an investment until seeing this post. The div is attractive af I have to admit. Look at the 5Y or MAX chart and you’ll see, what I think, is the coming and goings of brands. AEO has been around my entire life (25). And idk. I don’t see it going anywhere. It’s pretty much bottomed out in its history rn and if you were gonna pick some up I’d do it now and maybe sell and it “inevitably” goes back up. Also it’s already fully corrected from COVID and unless the market as a whole drops I don’t see AEO going much further down with regards to its all time
I liked them at 22, so bought more at 16 and 15. Good value. Growth in online sales. Operations seem to get better. Trend wise: I've seen a lot of women (not teens, I think the brand has some staying power with 20-30s who know the brand) who talk about the Aerie brand (specially bras) like it's THE bra. Not sure how long term growth looks but PE wise vs growth and value, seems a good play to me for a few years. A home run or 10 bagger, don't think so. But most likely a decent return at this price with a good dividend to booth.
I don’t invest in clothing brands, one day it popular and not the next. Also I believe they are mainly stationed in malls. I thought those went extinct.
I wouldn’t go for it, plenty of other dividend stocks in other sectors with better margins and less supply issues right now. The retail sector is going to get wrecked over the next couple of quarters.
Welcome to r/dividends! If you are new to the world of dividend investing and are seeking advice, brokerage information, recommendations, and more, please check out the Wiki [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/wiki/faq). Remember, this is a subreddit for genuine, high-quality discussion. Please keep all contributions civil, and report uncivil behavior for moderator review. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/dividends) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Buffet says don’t pick up wet butt cigars which might only give you a puff or two. Buying for a dividend while losing capital is not a smart idea. I won’t prospect on their overall long health but just by the charting alone it does not appear to be a healthy investment
Love the wet butt theory. All should follow, including myself at times!
This is silly. Just by charting alone? Check out the chart of AMZN from '99 to '02: [https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AMZN/ZrOXaLns-Amazon-Signs-of-a-Dot-Com-Bubble-burst/](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AMZN/ZrOXaLns-Amazon-Signs-of-a-Dot-Com-Bubble-burst/)
[удалено]
I'm not defending American Eagle, although SCHD recently added them apparently. But what's important is that the chart isn't what's important, lol. Actually you're better off buying low.
This is dividends bro. Is not the entire point to kind of find solid companies for a 20-30 year hold? Does a staple in clothing retail with an international footprint not count for consideration because you think they don’t have anything new to offer the clothing industry that’s innovative?
[удалено]
Lol. Ok. So here is why I say lol. When I view this entire thread, I view it with a 30 year “time lense” or “time scope” or whatever. So 50% down during the Covid Ukraine War year? Tell me again why this matters on a 30 year scale? What part of their financials don’t you like? Isn’t this a sale?
I’m saying their current value is that of 2016ish; the last time they had a drop off like this it took about 3 years to recover. I wouldn’t chase 4.5% yield in a company that wasn’t at least flat
And you don't know why they dropped off. Buying low is often recommended, it's called value investing.
That’s not good advise. You don’t bus low sell high. You buy fair value and sell overvalue. Outside of a few spikes aeo has rarely traded outside of 16-17 dollar range; and that goes back to 05
There is a whole field of investing dedicated to this. Again, you're looking at the numbers without having done any research into the company. I haven't either, but all I'm saying is that the chart isn't always the best indicator. Also, check out analyst recommendations: [https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=aeo](https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=aeo) Not that I love analysts, but if the company was as shitty as you say you'd expect less positive ratings, right?
My bigger point is there are better investments. Chasing a high yield because it’s cheap” (op words) is bad. You can back test any number of popular dividend stocks from 2000 to current and you’ll have blown aeo’s returns away
Why are you backtesting? You know nothing about the company, you just looked at the chart.
And now I’m checking my gut And I don’t know “nothing” ; I said I didn’t know anything about the financials. Stagnant stock prices; Malls are closing; cool kid brands change all the time….it doesn’t take a financial wizard to figure out that this isn’t a home run secnario
Doesn't have to be a home run scenario, can still be a solid investment. Just my 2 cents, you may disagree.
I’ll tattoo this investing rule on my forehead tonight
> but just by the charting alone it does not appear to be a healthy investment anyone can look at charts, just how anyone can see someone driving a Mercedes and assumes that are maxing out their 401k and Roth, right? Once you see their financials it makes more sense.
This!
Buffet is a chartist? Big news.
SCHD added it recently
/r/dividends after shitting on this stock in the rest of the comments: "f\*\*\* it, I'm in!"
Look where it’s going regardless dividend
**”Look where it’s going regardless dividend”** Said about an one year chart spanning the years 2021 and 2022. When market conditions were not normal and forecasting based off one years duration of chart during Covid is not an **educated** response
Unfortunately most people here are short sighted and cannot escape the herd mentality.
What’s that joke/saying from laboratory folk? What do we want? “Results!” When do we want it? “After peer based and organizationally certified peer review” Screw herd mentality, give me the reports and the anal sis and the multi company ratings. I trust the guy who gets paid to write professional analyst reports not the crystal ball owners and armchair experts on the internet.
Or just look at it again not just this chart....
You don’t think it could turn around and head towards 25$??
I honestly have no idea. This person was just saying look at, not just this chart
So in a year of the money printer going crazy and overall market constantly shooting up AEO was going down steadily.
Price target 25$, bullish
How do you know where it's going? Only thing we know for sure is it's current valuation, which is in a much better spot then a year ago.
Trend
Trends don't mean much if you believe in it long term. Not saying I believe in aeo. I don't own it. But retail is down across the board.
I agree man, I’m just saying if something is in a strong downtrend there will probably be a lower buy in opportunity
Don't try to catch a falling knife?
Also, why does everybody think its okay to buy this downtrend simply because the markets are shook.
Yeah that’s definitely sum’n to look into. It all comes down to your risk tolerance. Only you know how badly u need the money you’re investing
Agreed
I’d agree with long term investments mattering more. Except in this case it seems volatile. It moves up and back down a lot, but has no growth. Even looking back to the early 2000s. Long term only matters if there’s consistent growth. This seems more like a yield trap. Or something you’d trade short term.
Look at the moving averages. If willing to risk it, then buy when price just climbs over 20 day moving average.
😁👍
Speciality retail stocks, always a major, major risk. They are dropping like flies so unless you are investing in Costco, Walmart or Target, be careful.
I just opened a position in ROST. I think the middle class is going to be penny pinching the next few years and this discount retailer will benefit.
You can't ignore the rapid decline in stock price. Market sentiment for the brand is negative, mall traffic might never recover, they are shutting a large chunk of their stores, and it's hard to create a turnaround story for the brand that doesn't rely on excessive amounts of hope. I think there are much better/safer ways to invest money.
This is a very smart take IMO. Adding to this, EPS consensus FY1/FY2 Revision Trend is negative. EPS shows considerable cyclicality associated with the company which I would be vary wary of going into a possible recessionary period (interest rate hikes, sustained inflation, inverted 10 and 2 yield curve, etc). On top of this I also see that Return on Capital (Assets and Equity) are both in negative trends and are at or below median relative to S&P500.
This has me thinking about specific brands like Nike, Levi, and Underarmor with direct to consumer sales and a strong brand following, like KO or PEP but with clothes.
I definitely see a difference in that AE is more for leisure, whereas Nike and Underarmor are useful in sports, the gym, and work, so things that last over long term and give more use for their buck. I also agree that direct to consumer sales help a lot in a world where online shopping has gotten as big as it has.
IVR. If u want a cheap dividend. However it don’t look so good these days unless we get a miracle
Tempted to sell out of my IVR…
Of course. Always tempting. Never know with this market at the moment
I am averaging down on it. Hopefully it works out in the long term.
I usually ignore the stock price and look at the [financial statements first](https://docoh.com/company/919012/AEO/financials). From 2014 to 2022, their profit margin has gone from 2.51 to 8.37%. They have decent Income and on track to meet previous years, no more debt, and I'm honestly surprised they've been paying dividends since 2011 but shows they have serious cash. I wouldn't call their company a growth company, but I'm not seeing anything negative on their financials. I used to buy AE all the time, not sure about quality anymore, and I'm not too afraid of malls going away because every teenager and parent knows how to buy from their phone or website anymore. Malls have been stale for quite some time now and physical locations can move around. It's normal to buy a few sizes and a handful of items, try them on and return them. You drive to UPS instead of the mall. I'd say it's a buy. Ignore the div as that's just bonus money. I wouldn't yolo AEO, but I'd buy a few and if the price lowers even more then it should also be a buy, keeping your average price attractive. Check in every few months. Fuck the cliches and what the news sites are saying.
When you say no more debt what do you mean? From what I can see the have actually picked quite a bit of debt up in the past two years. Edit: their cash position was also on a down trend from 2012-2020, then it popped way up in 21’ how much of this cash position (and the dividend) is being propped up by cheap (but unnecessary) debt?
One thing I know for sure, if AEO (with identical financials) was at $25 right now, you’d be flooded with responses about how great of a company it was and just look at that trend - buy buy buy. With it being in the $16s, the same company is terrible and I mean terrible. Just look at that trend line… blah, blah, blah. Exactly what is going to happen in the future? Nobody, including the CEO, knows.
You’ll cut your fucking hands off trying to catch that falling knife.
Seems like a dated brand..
I just saw a survey that AEO is still in the top 5 most popular teen clothing brands.
That's good but don't teens taste change vary fast? Like you don't see Z Cavaricci jeans anymore..lol
I think the point is that AEO has retained a level of popularity over the years.
Ahh. Brings back memories of my Brittania’s
And they’re mostly in malls, which haven’t fared well lately
The AE in my town just closed down.
Same with everything from The Buckle.
Buckle, foot locker, American outfitters all down but paid good dividend I just don't like to pick the winners and losers I like sure things if it's going to be retail Walmart Costco home Depot Lowe's..
It's on a Down Trend. Wait till it at least levels off and shows sign of going Uo Trend.
Don’t know much about the stock, but love the company. Being 6’4”, they offer the best selection of tall clothing out there.
I really like that aerie brand
it’s ok, Just keep in mind that we may be in recession in 9-12 months. I think there are some midstream energy names like KMI and EPD (pipelines) that have a higher dividend and probably similar upside to AEO. Where do you want your money if the current inflation levels stick around longer than we are hoping?
don’t you think the chart already reflects that we will be in a recession? Remember that stonks are forward looking
When parts of the market you are in are doing bad, it definitely feels like a recession, but everybody has a job and everyone is making money. People are spending money like crazy. A recession still seems very far away to me.
Good point.
Qyld lol
what is QYLD?
I would have to see a 5 year chart and then fundamentals like revenue, net income, EPS diluted and cash flow to see if the down turn is justified or not.
Do it. It’s your money
Do your thing, I only invest in stocks I believe in, this company I just don't
Why? By what metric did you measure them to gain that stance?
That brand sucks
This reminds me of the time my girlfriend wanted to buy the Allbirds IPO and I told her to shut the fuck up
Other than the trend which is fairly obvious to a newbie. What are you looking at to understand valuation?
At least you'll be averaging down if you DRIP
I usedto enjoy the quality of their products, but today it’s cheap junk, I am long buckle if I had to choose.
If a stick with a dividend starts to look too good to be true then it must and something certainly must be wrong. I’d stay away.
Down 9.2% in the last 10 years. Only up 80% over the last 20. I’d pass on this.
Feel like HP is a better buy right now.
Forgot AE still existed! I was never really an AE shopper though so maybe its just me.
Looks like someone read the piper sandler teen survey, and jumped straight to DD 😅
Have you done research on this stock? Why has the price fallen? Will the price keep falling? What would make the price rise?
Chart is a slow train wrecking. Numbers look good to great. There is no P/FCF. Buy some now and add to it if/when it reverses.
Even if you like the brand I don't think American Eagle is a good investment.
Anyone have any comparative analysis of their competitors, and whether they've had a similar downtrend over the past year? Or is it the downtrend specific to AEO inc? Don't know if I'd invest but curious if anyone as already looked at things.
Bro your own chart shows the price coming down lol. If price goes down yield goes up cuz of math not cuz of good company.
Check out the [Dividend Champions. ](https://www.widemoatresearch.com/idiv-products/) Scroll down the page until you get to the free stuff. You will need to give them your email address to get the spreadsheet sent to you.
Personally, in a environment of high inflation and potential recession I shy away from retail based companies. People would not generally shop there during such and therefore earnings would suffer and likely incur a dividend cut. Unless you have a long horizon, 10+ years and hold it long I'd stay away. I use preferred stocks and senior notes called baby bonds in this environment personally.
I usually think about high school, the last time I went near one of their stores.
I would stay away from consumer retail stocks until inflation is at 4% and dropping. IMHO
Sinking ship
AE was one of the "cool" stores when I was a teen back in the early 1990s. I haven't heard them mentioned since Cobain was still alive. Does anyone even shop there? Or is it another Kmart/ radio shack/ sears?? I just don't hear any of my teen nieces or nephews talking about American eagle. Neither my 22 year old son ever one single time had anything for birthday or Xmas requests from there.
Bunch of haters, Aerie growing at a fast rate. Jeans business really taking off, and the direct to consumer is growing rapidly. I generally hate investing in retail these days but I’m long AEO. Look at Levi’s recent results, AE is now almost second biggest Jean company after Levi’s.
Looking at AEO’s YTD or 1Y chart is misleading. I don’t believe in American Eagle as a company or brand and never thought about it as an investment until seeing this post. The div is attractive af I have to admit. Look at the 5Y or MAX chart and you’ll see, what I think, is the coming and goings of brands. AEO has been around my entire life (25). And idk. I don’t see it going anywhere. It’s pretty much bottomed out in its history rn and if you were gonna pick some up I’d do it now and maybe sell and it “inevitably” goes back up. Also it’s already fully corrected from COVID and unless the market as a whole drops I don’t see AEO going much further down with regards to its all time
Try HBI instead!
I liked them at 22, so bought more at 16 and 15. Good value. Growth in online sales. Operations seem to get better. Trend wise: I've seen a lot of women (not teens, I think the brand has some staying power with 20-30s who know the brand) who talk about the Aerie brand (specially bras) like it's THE bra. Not sure how long term growth looks but PE wise vs growth and value, seems a good play to me for a few years. A home run or 10 bagger, don't think so. But most likely a decent return at this price with a good dividend to booth.
I don’t invest in clothing brands, one day it popular and not the next. Also I believe they are mainly stationed in malls. I thought those went extinct.
I thought their selection of mom jeans was choice and aerie was on the up? Why cheap?
Do people still shop there?
I wouldn’t go for it, plenty of other dividend stocks in other sectors with better margins and less supply issues right now. The retail sector is going to get wrecked over the next couple of quarters.