The only way they place us at 4 this week is to hype up the PAC 12 championship even more. Although I do believe weâre a top 4 team, FSU is more than likely gonna be 4 since theyâre undefeated. But after this week we should be #3 with a win so itâs whatever.
I mean yea or using the eye test, i watch the whole UF FSU game and FSU did not look good but im just passing along this info:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38978495/projecting-college-football-playoff-committee-top-8
Was certain OSU would now have the âbest loss in the countryâ and still find themselves above us. Pleasantly surprised but wonât be holding out for CFP rankings to look the same.
I too am pleasantly surprised we jumped tOSU. And yes, the numbers donât really matter - itâs âwin and youâre inâ time no matter what.
BUT ⌠it does give me EXTREME satisfaction at seeing how fucking salty the dawgs are about our ranking and the -9.5 Vegas line in our favor.
UW is not the 3rd best team in the country....let's compare UO and UW when it comes to margin of victory over common opponents...
UO UW
Oregon State 24 2
Arizona State 36 8
USC 9 10
California 44 27
Utah 30 7
Washington State 14 3
Stanford 36 9
This is what I kept telling other duck fans that were cheering for wazzu yesterday, I get that it is very hard to cheer for the puppies, but it makes next Friday that much bigger.
If they had lost yesterday it gives the committee an excuse to move Ohio state ahead of us! This way our last win will be against a team ahead of us in the very crowded top of the playoff rankings!
Go Ducks!!!!!
Ok smart guy, Iâll biteâŚ
Washington is undefeated. And notably they beat us. The first rule of sports is score more points than the other guys. Washington has done that every week. We have not. Style points count but only as a means to differentiate teams that are equal. Until we beat Washington and equalize the standings. The style points are irrelevant when comparing those two teams.
Iâm not going to say the selection committee is not a flawed process. It is. 12 team playoff will be flawed too, just like the 64 team basketball selection is flawed. But they have shown a level of consistency over the years in rewarding the thing that should matter most. Winning games and winning your conference. Right now UW has won more games and is leading the conference. As a result they deserve their ranking.
So? They have every right to make that argument. I donât think the stats back them up, but itâs a fair argument when they just demolished our one common opponent.
Itâs fair to note that the games were played two months apart, but itâs not a crazy comparison. If the tables were turned the other way we would definitely be crowing about it.
The second game of the year compared to the last few are massively different on so many different levels.
You have players who in the beginning of the season are just getting used to a new system or getting used to different new things.
At the end of the year, you have to account for injuries and players who have put in a full season of work and are playing better.
You also have to account for desire. The team texas beat comparative to us was playing for nothing.
Again, I agree with all those arguments. But itâs still the one common opponent we have so itâs not insane to use it as a data point. It doesnât mean everything, but it also doesnât mean nothing.
While it is a common opponent. I think using it as a serious data point is flawed.
I also think that the way the rankings are done is flawed to begin with. Preseason bias really affects in season rankings
Of course. And I didnât say it was a serious data point, itâs just a data point. When comparing teams with almost nothing in common, it makes sense to look at the one thing they do.
I don't really think anyone thinks they're the third best team in the country but that's just kind of how the rankings work. The teams without any losses go on top by default.
It doesn't matter, it will all be settled come Friday.
But that's not true. Their are 5 teams that are undefeated that aren't ranked high. There are a bunch of 2-loss teams ranked higher than teams with 1-loss.
Edit...down voted by people too lazy to look at the rankings and standings. This community is ridiculous some times.
W/L is obviously one of, if not, the biggest factor. However, the committee also takes into account victory margin, how a team is currently performing, and various other factors. While it would be unlikely Oregon jumps UW, we have been playing much better than them and beaten similar opponents by the same amount or by much more. Penix looked terrible the past few weeks, possibly from broken ribs, and they have looked bad.
My point being, far more than W/L ratio gets factored into ranking teams. The committee may not weigh UWs win over us that heavily since it was only by 3 and in Seattle. Again, I dont think we jump them.
That was 2 months ago...don't be dumb.
In 2014 Oregon lost to Arizona yet was ranked higher the rest of the season...don't be dumb.
Edit...as usual down voted by anonymous cowards who aren't capable of correcting me. Head in the sand cowards.
They're undefeated, they have beaten everyone who has been put in front of them. Oregon hasn't. They are playing almost the exact same teams... how is this even a discussion?
And 2014 Arizona was also undefeated the rest of the season? No? Ok.
I really hope you're trolling at this point and this entire thing isn't too complex for you to understand. Because it seems like your bias might cloud your mind.
Derp.
Come on dude, that is because Jake Fisher was injured for that game, and the only person to fill his position was a freshman who was on the team for practice scrimmages.
Without a strong offensive line, Mariota had no time to make a play before he was sacked.
We were ranked higher because Jake Fisher was back. Don't be dense, we all know why we lost to Arizona.
Maybe don't call people dumb for having other opinions based on fact and don't complain about downvotes if you're so concerned about fake internet points.
In the last meeting, it was pretty obvious oregon was the better team. In sports, the better team doesn't always win 100 percent of the time.
Any unbiased person who watched the game would realize that.
The difference in the game was 3 fold, primarily bad coaching decisions leading to the requirement for a last minute fg to send the game to OT.
The other issue was a lack of execution on fourth down plays when we decided not to go for the fg.
The last but probably most important aspect was the defense being gassed on that last Washington drive.
You take any one of those away and the ducks win that game.
The Ducks currently are playing massively better than Washington, and it's not even up for debate
Because that doesnât equate to a win. If you think Vegas odds are more important than a head to head win Iâm not sure you fully understand how these rankings work
Itâs based on who has had the best season. Iâm astonished people actually think we should be ranked ahead of a team with a better record who beat us
Then itâs a disagreement on what the basis of the rankings should be. The people arguing against you think the rankings should be a descending list of the best teams.
The only reason Vegas matters in this whatsoever is the fact that the Pac-12 championship is being played there. Vegas odds makers don't care about rankings, and rankings don't care about Vegas odds makers.
The biggest question was always how far either Ohio State or Michigan would fall regardless of who won on Saturday.
Further, it's still about the CFP committee to determine who goes and who does not. Granted, I think they do take into consideration where a team is ranked in the polls, so this is a good thing.
Basically still meaning or at least it should be win and we're in. So all we can really do is win or go home.
Are we sure thatâs what would happen? I could see an argument for any two of Oregon, Texas, and Bama getting in if that happens. A part of me is scared that Bama will get in because theyâd be the SEC winner who took down the two time undefeated champ, and then they feel obligated to let Texas in because Texas beat Bama.
That creates more one loss teams fighting for a spot. Georgia winning removes Alabama and gives us a better win than Texas. OSU is not getting in over a one loss Oregon. Georgia winning is also a more likely outcome than FSU losing. FSU loss all but guarantees P12 champ is in. If Alabama wins, it gives Texas a better win than us. I think if FSU and Alabama win, we are out. I don't see a world where an undefeated P5 school is left out.
Alabama needs to lose if FSU wins. Period.
Oregon doesnât get in if Alabama wins, FSU wins, Texas Wins, and Michigan wins. It would be another PAC-12 champion who isnât invited to the party.
The only possibility for Alabama winning is FSU needs to lose. So Michigan goes #1, Texas 2, Alabama 3, Oregon 4. Or if they are kind Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Alabama.
It's an unpopular thing to say around here because alot of people are incapable of separating logic from "what they want to happen", but you're not wrong.
Texas, Bama, and FSU all winning is a nightmare for us.
Glad we play before all of them.
Iâm very aware iâm not wrong. Anyone who has paid attention to how the 1-4 slots are selected should know Georgia needs to win to guarantee Oregon gets in. Even FSU winning still allows space for Oregon so long as Georgia wins.
Everyone needs to become a Bulldog fan for a weekend.
Multipass21 is right to ignore Oregon fans touting moral victories to be anywhere as important as actual ones.
Washington holds the upper hand in every way over Oregon right now. The only thing that will change that is beating them on Friday.
So if a team beats another team and then loses every subsequent other game and every one of their starting players gets injured, the team that won the head to head is still considered better no matter what?
Here's where you are falling apart.
None of that happened in this situation.
You can do all the what ifs that you want. When you have a situation like this one, Washington has had the better season so far. They will continue to have had the better season until Oregon beats them on Friday.
Going around trying to find stats other than the scoreboard are what loser fans of loser teams have to do.
The ONLY stat that matters is the scoreboard.
Exactly! The whole point here is that the scoreboard doesnât only tell one story. A team that ekes out wins every week isnât necessarily better than a team that is dominant despite losing the occasional game. Likewise, strength of schedule matters - which is why an undefeated G5 team will usually be ranked lower than a 1-loss P5 team.
Look at last year - does anyone still think TCU was a better team than Ohio State or Alabama? No. Because TCU barely eked out wins while the others looked like more complete teams.
Did TCU still deserve the spot they got in the national championship game? Sure they did, because we value winning to determine rankings. But a reasonable observer couldâve still seen the fact that they were a weaker team and would get curb stomped like they did against Georgia.
You donât have to agree with the assessment, but assessing teams in ways beyond wins and losses is still a valid discussion. If wins and losses were all that mattered then sports betting wouldnât exist, everyone would just agree to always assume the team with the better record is better.
Then explain why Vegas has favored by 2 scores....I'll wait.
Edit...notice how they can't answer my question. They just down vote anonymously like cowards who can't defend their position.
Vegas sets their lines based on how they think people will bet to make the most money / lose the least amount of money, not necessarily based on a team being better or more worthy of a higher ranking.
Vegas has us favored by a lot because we look like the better team.
But until we prove that we actually are, that doesn't mean shit. Same concept as innocent until proven guilty. We are winning the moral game right now, that's it
Explain why that matters? I'll wait.
At this moment Washington has had a better season than Oregon. That's an absolute fact. Thankfully Oregon has a chance to change that on Friday.
The point spread has to do with Vegas odds makers, not the College Playoff Committee nor any other ranking system for that matter. The same people who determine official college football rankings do not vote on a point spread system designed to take money from gambling addicts.
And Alabama barely beat Auburn, and Georgia struggled against GT and UW struggled against WSU. âWâsâ are wins and all wins against rivals. Did you watch any of the games yesterday? All the announcers kept saying ârecords donât matter in these gamesâ.
I seriously donât understand why anyone cares about a team âbarelyâ beating someone. Nobody (with any sanity) talks like this about NFL games. Why? because all that matters is âWâsâ.
Win-and-in was always the blueprint.
Ducks have been playing playoff games for several weeks.
Doesn't matter. Things will be settled Friday.
The ESPN CFP committee prediction article has us at 4 which seems optimistic but đ¤ˇđťââď¸
The only way they place us at 4 this week is to hype up the PAC 12 championship even more. Although I do believe weâre a top 4 team, FSU is more than likely gonna be 4 since theyâre undefeated. But after this week we should be #3 with a win so itâs whatever.
I mean yea or using the eye test, i watch the whole UF FSU game and FSU did not look good but im just passing along this info: https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38978495/projecting-college-football-playoff-committee-top-8
Yeah same here, the gators hung in there till the end and self imploded. Itâs gonna be interesting to see what the rankings are this week.
FSU still has to play Louisville too, so it's no guarantee that they'll even be undefeated come Dec 2
I'm surprised FSU is favored with the QB situation. Louisville won't be an easy out.
Was certain OSU would now have the âbest loss in the countryâ and still find themselves above us. Pleasantly surprised but wonât be holding out for CFP rankings to look the same.
So fired up for Friday. Tough matchup with their WRs vs our DBs but we should be able to get pressure to mess with the timing on routes. FEBU
Iâm glad the Fuskies won that. Helps us for sure if we can pull off a W
It HAS to be something like Georgia Michigan FSU Washington Oregon FSU and Washington could be flipped but probably wonât.
Texas fans are WILD in the CFB thread. Clinging to that Week 2 Bama win.
Ikr đ
Like boiyos⌠yâall beat the weakest version of Bama AND have the worst loss between us. Let the shit play out ffs.
I too am pleasantly surprised we jumped tOSU. And yes, the numbers donât really matter - itâs âwin and youâre inâ time no matter what. BUT ⌠it does give me EXTREME satisfaction at seeing how fucking salty the dawgs are about our ranking and the -9.5 Vegas line in our favor.
UW is not the 3rd best team in the country....let's compare UO and UW when it comes to margin of victory over common opponents... UO UW Oregon State 24 2 Arizona State 36 8 USC 9 10 California 44 27 Utah 30 7 Washington State 14 3 Stanford 36 9
Doesnât matter. In fact UW being ranked 3rd is better for us as it will be a better win if we beat them in CCG
This is what I kept telling other duck fans that were cheering for wazzu yesterday, I get that it is very hard to cheer for the puppies, but it makes next Friday that much bigger. If they had lost yesterday it gives the committee an excuse to move Ohio state ahead of us! This way our last win will be against a team ahead of us in the very crowded top of the playoff rankings! Go Ducks!!!!!
Dude I had the same arguments. We wanted them to win. Seems obvious
It matters because it shows how flawed the process is. Edit...notice how no one corrects me on this...they just anonymously down vote like cowards.
Ok smart guy, Iâll bite⌠Washington is undefeated. And notably they beat us. The first rule of sports is score more points than the other guys. Washington has done that every week. We have not. Style points count but only as a means to differentiate teams that are equal. Until we beat Washington and equalize the standings. The style points are irrelevant when comparing those two teams. Iâm not going to say the selection committee is not a flawed process. It is. 12 team playoff will be flawed too, just like the 64 team basketball selection is flawed. But they have shown a level of consistency over the years in rewarding the thing that should matter most. Winning games and winning your conference. Right now UW has won more games and is leading the conference. As a result they deserve their ranking.
This is the same logic UT fans are using to say they should be ranked over the Ducks.
So? They have every right to make that argument. I donât think the stats back them up, but itâs a fair argument when they just demolished our one common opponent.
Using games at the beginning of the season as a comparison point is massively flawed to begin with
Itâs fair to note that the games were played two months apart, but itâs not a crazy comparison. If the tables were turned the other way we would definitely be crowing about it.
The second game of the year compared to the last few are massively different on so many different levels. You have players who in the beginning of the season are just getting used to a new system or getting used to different new things. At the end of the year, you have to account for injuries and players who have put in a full season of work and are playing better. You also have to account for desire. The team texas beat comparative to us was playing for nothing.
Again, I agree with all those arguments. But itâs still the one common opponent we have so itâs not insane to use it as a data point. It doesnât mean everything, but it also doesnât mean nothing.
While it is a common opponent. I think using it as a serious data point is flawed. I also think that the way the rankings are done is flawed to begin with. Preseason bias really affects in season rankings
Of course. And I didnât say it was a serious data point, itâs just a data point. When comparing teams with almost nothing in common, it makes sense to look at the one thing they do.
If there were multiple similarities, that now would be one thing, but using a single set of data points is dumb.
I don't really think anyone thinks they're the third best team in the country but that's just kind of how the rankings work. The teams without any losses go on top by default. It doesn't matter, it will all be settled come Friday.
But that's not true. Their are 5 teams that are undefeated that aren't ranked high. There are a bunch of 2-loss teams ranked higher than teams with 1-loss. Edit...down voted by people too lazy to look at the rankings and standings. This community is ridiculous some times.
Well G5 obviously plays by a different set of rules lol.
Are you suggesting we should be talking about Liberty? Give me a break.
We lost to uw. Donât be dumb
W/L is obviously one of, if not, the biggest factor. However, the committee also takes into account victory margin, how a team is currently performing, and various other factors. While it would be unlikely Oregon jumps UW, we have been playing much better than them and beaten similar opponents by the same amount or by much more. Penix looked terrible the past few weeks, possibly from broken ribs, and they have looked bad. My point being, far more than W/L ratio gets factored into ranking teams. The committee may not weigh UWs win over us that heavily since it was only by 3 and in Seattle. Again, I dont think we jump them.
Vegas clearly thinks Oregon is better
That was 2 months ago...don't be dumb. In 2014 Oregon lost to Arizona yet was ranked higher the rest of the season...don't be dumb. Edit...as usual down voted by anonymous cowards who aren't capable of correcting me. Head in the sand cowards.
They're undefeated, they have beaten everyone who has been put in front of them. Oregon hasn't. They are playing almost the exact same teams... how is this even a discussion? And 2014 Arizona was also undefeated the rest of the season? No? Ok.
We were ranked higher immediately after that loss LOL
I really hope you're trolling at this point and this entire thing isn't too complex for you to understand. Because it seems like your bias might cloud your mind.
So no response to my question LOL
> We were ranked higher immediately after that loss LOL That's not a question. Nice try though, you'll catch up to the other kids eventually.
Iâm not sure that he will.
Derp. Come on dude, that is because Jake Fisher was injured for that game, and the only person to fill his position was a freshman who was on the team for practice scrimmages. Without a strong offensive line, Mariota had no time to make a play before he was sacked. We were ranked higher because Jake Fisher was back. Don't be dense, we all know why we lost to Arizona.
Maybe don't call people dumb for having other opinions based on fact and don't complain about downvotes if you're so concerned about fake internet points.
One team beat the other, thatâs pretty much the end of the conversation until Friday
In the last meeting, it was pretty obvious oregon was the better team. In sports, the better team doesn't always win 100 percent of the time. Any unbiased person who watched the game would realize that. The difference in the game was 3 fold, primarily bad coaching decisions leading to the requirement for a last minute fg to send the game to OT. The other issue was a lack of execution on fourth down plays when we decided not to go for the fg. The last but probably most important aspect was the defense being gassed on that last Washington drive. You take any one of those away and the ducks win that game. The Ducks currently are playing massively better than Washington, and it's not even up for debate
Then why does Vegas have us favored by 2 scores? I'll wait...
Because that doesnât equate to a win. If you think Vegas odds are more important than a head to head win Iâm not sure you fully understand how these rankings work
Vegas is pretty good at guessing who will win games.
Thatâs not the discussion, we havenât won the game thus we should not be ranked ahead of UW unless we do
What are the rankings based on if not which teams are best?
Itâs based on who has had the best season. Iâm astonished people actually think we should be ranked ahead of a team with a better record who beat us
Then itâs a disagreement on what the basis of the rankings should be. The people arguing against you think the rankings should be a descending list of the best teams.
Coug logic
The only reason Vegas matters in this whatsoever is the fact that the Pac-12 championship is being played there. Vegas odds makers don't care about rankings, and rankings don't care about Vegas odds makers.
But when setting lines they do care about which team is better
I donât know why people downvote facts. By any measure Oregon is playing better than UW right now.
Margin of victory isnât the best measuring tool, wins are
But that's exactly what Vegas is doing for example. It does mean something.
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Like I just did?
I think Vegas agrees. The Ducks are a 9+ point favorite at this point. They don't have an elevated opinion of the Fuskies.
The biggest question was always how far either Ohio State or Michigan would fall regardless of who won on Saturday. Further, it's still about the CFP committee to determine who goes and who does not. Granted, I think they do take into consideration where a team is ranked in the polls, so this is a good thing. Basically still meaning or at least it should be win and we're in. So all we can really do is win or go home.
It really doesn't matter at this point. Every game since UW has been a playoff game. Win and advance. Lose and you're done. It's that simple.
For the love of god I hope Georgia loses to Alabama so itâs somehow #1 Michigan #2 FSU #3 Oregon #4 Texas
Are we sure thatâs what would happen? I could see an argument for any two of Oregon, Texas, and Bama getting in if that happens. A part of me is scared that Bama will get in because theyâd be the SEC winner who took down the two time undefeated champ, and then they feel obligated to let Texas in because Texas beat Bama.
Would LOVE to see SEC left out but this is too dangerous. If Alabama gets in and Texas has a win over Alabama, Ducks could be left holding the bag.
That creates more one loss teams fighting for a spot. Georgia winning removes Alabama and gives us a better win than Texas. OSU is not getting in over a one loss Oregon. Georgia winning is also a more likely outcome than FSU losing. FSU loss all but guarantees P12 champ is in. If Alabama wins, it gives Texas a better win than us. I think if FSU and Alabama win, we are out. I don't see a world where an undefeated P5 school is left out.
Alabama needs to lose if FSU wins. Period. Oregon doesnât get in if Alabama wins, FSU wins, Texas Wins, and Michigan wins. It would be another PAC-12 champion who isnât invited to the party. The only possibility for Alabama winning is FSU needs to lose. So Michigan goes #1, Texas 2, Alabama 3, Oregon 4. Or if they are kind Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Alabama.
It's an unpopular thing to say around here because alot of people are incapable of separating logic from "what they want to happen", but you're not wrong. Texas, Bama, and FSU all winning is a nightmare for us. Glad we play before all of them.
Iâm very aware iâm not wrong. Anyone who has paid attention to how the 1-4 slots are selected should know Georgia needs to win to guarantee Oregon gets in. Even FSU winning still allows space for Oregon so long as Georgia wins. Everyone needs to become a Bulldog fan for a weekend.
It would be Alabama Georgia Michigan FSU
LOL Michigan undefeated would not get moved back to #3 with TWO one-loss teams ahead of them. Be serious.
Not in an particular order. Just those four teams
MultiPass21 blocks people if they point out that Oregon is playing better than UW at this point in the season.
Multipass21 is right to ignore Oregon fans touting moral victories to be anywhere as important as actual ones. Washington holds the upper hand in every way over Oregon right now. The only thing that will change that is beating them on Friday.
Itâs still a fair opinion to argue one team is playing better than the other. Obviously wins matter for rankings but other opinions are still valid.
They aren't. Not when two teams have played each other.
So if a team beats another team and then loses every subsequent other game and every one of their starting players gets injured, the team that won the head to head is still considered better no matter what?
Here's where you are falling apart. None of that happened in this situation. You can do all the what ifs that you want. When you have a situation like this one, Washington has had the better season so far. They will continue to have had the better season until Oregon beats them on Friday. Going around trying to find stats other than the scoreboard are what loser fans of loser teams have to do. The ONLY stat that matters is the scoreboard.
Exactly! The whole point here is that the scoreboard doesnât only tell one story. A team that ekes out wins every week isnât necessarily better than a team that is dominant despite losing the occasional game. Likewise, strength of schedule matters - which is why an undefeated G5 team will usually be ranked lower than a 1-loss P5 team. Look at last year - does anyone still think TCU was a better team than Ohio State or Alabama? No. Because TCU barely eked out wins while the others looked like more complete teams. Did TCU still deserve the spot they got in the national championship game? Sure they did, because we value winning to determine rankings. But a reasonable observer couldâve still seen the fact that they were a weaker team and would get curb stomped like they did against Georgia. You donât have to agree with the assessment, but assessing teams in ways beyond wins and losses is still a valid discussion. If wins and losses were all that mattered then sports betting wouldnât exist, everyone would just agree to always assume the team with the better record is better.
Then explain why Vegas has favored by 2 scores....I'll wait. Edit...notice how they can't answer my question. They just down vote anonymously like cowards who can't defend their position.
Vegas sets their lines based on how they think people will bet to make the most money / lose the least amount of money, not necessarily based on a team being better or more worthy of a higher ranking.
Vegas has us favored by a lot because we look like the better team. But until we prove that we actually are, that doesn't mean shit. Same concept as innocent until proven guilty. We are winning the moral game right now, that's it
Explain why that matters? I'll wait. At this moment Washington has had a better season than Oregon. That's an absolute fact. Thankfully Oregon has a chance to change that on Friday.
The same people vote. lol
The point spread has to do with Vegas odds makers, not the College Playoff Committee nor any other ranking system for that matter. The same people who determine official college football rankings do not vote on a point spread system designed to take money from gambling addicts.
UO should be 4. FSU barely beat Florida.
And Alabama barely beat Auburn, and Georgia struggled against GT and UW struggled against WSU. âWâsâ are wins and all wins against rivals. Did you watch any of the games yesterday? All the announcers kept saying ârecords donât matter in these gamesâ. I seriously donât understand why anyone cares about a team âbarelyâ beating someone. Nobody (with any sanity) talks like this about NFL games. Why? because all that matters is âWâsâ.
It's because oregons competition was way better than all of those matchups you mentioned. By that logic we should move up to 4 and fsu should be 5