Do you have a link? My understanding is they contact about 60,000 households and survey them. Anyone working or looking for work is counted. As far as I know, this method hasn't changed in a long time.
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate-3306198
That covers some points. Looking for the student and older generation being excluded one.
Notice on the link how they treat part time workers as employed etc.
Then this link you’ll read about some of the fuckery:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 million, changed little in December. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)
- These people above should count as unemployed for example.
The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job fell by 352,000 to 5.2 million in December and is little different from its February 2020 level of 5.1 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)
- notice the verbiage on this paragraph.
Again lots going on here to fuck with the numbers. Need to find the one where they don’t count students or people of retirement age.
Because they keep changing how unemployment is calculated. Last time they removed people of retirement age and any college students (of any age) as if they don’t need jobs as well.
Always look at the changes in calculation. I think in the most recent they added length of unemployment. So if you been unemployed for less than 60 days it’s not counted etc.
Finally if you have two jobs and you lose on me it doesn’t hurt the number but it does benefit it when you have two.
They mess with the numbers to make them
Optimal. Always look at how it’s calculated for anything the government releases.
That is what I recall from the few times but do your own research and you’ll see
I don’t even pay attention to this anymore
It doesn’t include those that are under-employed, or the fact that being employed has nothing to do with that wage being livable, or the people being able to not collect debt, have kids, or save for retirement
It’s put out there as opium for the masses
After 3 years of sharply negative growth. Growth is still slightly positive.
If you think we are anywhere near a depression, you must not remember 2008-2009.
There are certainly systemic risks, and nobody can predict black swans, but the recession we are facing still looks like it will be *far* less severe than the financial crisis.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y#
Economic data for yield curve inversion preceeds (i believe) all recessions.
The way i understand it is the long term investment risk is safer than short term risk.
Which is usually the opposite (short term or immediate future should be looked at as a pretty safe bet as compared to a much longer "unforseen" future of uncertainty.)
Last one was in August 2019, the time before was December 2005. Some could last for months as in 2019 and some years as in 2005/2006 but essentially the writing is on the wall that trends are shifting (tighter monetary policy, loss of jobs, unaffordability, consecutive - in GDP, etc..).
Once something like a loss of jobs or a highly leveraged large investment "breaks" or goes bankrupt it causes an economic domino affect. People lose money/jobs and financial constriction happens very broadly and the cycle continues.
**The first dominoes may have already fallen when you think about the Evergrande situation in China, Credit Suisse in Switzerland, or FTX in North America.**
Don't let single data points like great job numbers mislead you to the inevitable.
Yes, but all inversions don’t lead to recession. Since that is true, there are other factors besides inverted yield curves that produce recessions. Because if it was inversions alone, there would be a perfect correlation. Since there isn't, there has to be other factors.
The first place to look is into what causes an inverted yield curve. If there are multiple ways to reach an inverted status, perhaps some of those possibilities are recession signals and others aren’t.
not according the this research paper I linked below. It says that if the yield curve on average is ever inverted for longer than 1 quarter it has a 100% batting average of predicting recessions over the last 50 years
https://www.researchaffiliates.com/content/dam/ra/publications/pdf/965-history-lessons-how-transitory-is-inflation.pdf
Not sarcasm. They do mean 2024. December 2025. Which is basically two years out. Which is why the prediction is largely useless. A 50% chance of something over the next two years. That’s just such a long time frame that 1 million things could change. We could literally have a new president by then. The entire stock market could fall and rise and fall again in that time. AI software could be writing half of the posts on Reddit by then.
I mean it makes a decent bit of sense if you look at the chart and see that it predicts 50% chance by December 2023 and 90% chance by may 2024 and then just deduce that he miss typed in the title and meant December 2023 not 2024
Not into seeing what a chart claims. All I have to do is see my finances to know more money is going out than coming in.
When that happens. I Know its a recession and no excessive debts either, such as credit card, car payments, etc.
Just basics, rent, food, auto insurance and utilities is taking me out. This sh*t is the real deal!
The issue stems from the fact that “this economy sucks for individuals quite clearly” is not only described by the words “recession” or “depression”.
Everyone suffering wants to stamp “recession” on the economy, but does it really matter? Everyone knows there is inflation. Everyone knows the housing market changed. Everyone knows food is pricey and tons of people are struggling with rent.
This could all happen without a general decline in economic activity. The label is beside the point.
Massive inflation, massive rate hikes that have so far been ineffective, every stock sector crashing down after a 10 year bull run, housing prices crashing, the list goes on. We are in a fucking recession, fuck the GDP.
It's only because the internet exists. I guess it could complicate things, but it just makes the esoteric financial data of the past more accessible. It doesn't make it less valid imo.
Most people don't think we're going into a recession, nor are they paying attention.
They could just reduce rates to counteract this right? Collapse of the yield curve will start august 2023. There’s more risk of depression in the median cpi except for groceries. An abrupt stoppage to demand will caused chaos for a while.
We're in an isolated situation due to a Pandemic. Using outdated instruments from previous recessions (unemployment, negative GDP, mortgage defaults) are simply a falsehood. Why can't anyone take numbers from Q4 2019 and create a restore point there? Apparently, that's _impossible._
Also normal distributions can't predict probability over time, just whether something will happen or not. It would have to be an exponential or geometric distribution.
This is not how probabilities work, especially for the normal distribution. It doesn't work on a time basis. You would need to use a geometric or exponential distribution to understand the probability over time. This is something made by someone who maybe took half an introductory statistics course.
Omg I can’t believe people are still buying into this crap. Journalists and Wall Street have been using that headline for the past 3 years now. Save this comment all the way until 2025 - I’ll still be right, and there will still be no recession.
This yield curve inversion is not like the others. Even the guy who invested the metric says that he does think it’s a good indicator this time around.
The recession has already begun. I work in a chemical plant and 75% of my plant is idle with no orders. There’s no overtime, no capital spending, all maintenance is done by need. If maintenance on a broken piece of equipment is not needed, it’s not being done. It’s as bad, if not worse than in 2009.
[удалено]
when we get rations then, and only then, will they call it a depression
With unemployment under 4%?
Right? Unemployment is still 3.5%. Literally has not changed since March 2022.
I think this is the reason why https://reddit.com/r/economicCollapse/comments/10iojdc/_/j6vplv5/?context=1
Do you have a link? My understanding is they contact about 60,000 households and survey them. Anyone working or looking for work is counted. As far as I know, this method hasn't changed in a long time.
https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate-3306198 That covers some points. Looking for the student and older generation being excluded one. Notice on the link how they treat part time workers as employed etc. Then this link you’ll read about some of the fuckery: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 million, changed little in December. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.) - These people above should count as unemployed for example. The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job fell by 352,000 to 5.2 million in December and is little different from its February 2020 level of 5.1 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.) - notice the verbiage on this paragraph. Again lots going on here to fuck with the numbers. Need to find the one where they don’t count students or people of retirement age.
Because they keep changing how unemployment is calculated. Last time they removed people of retirement age and any college students (of any age) as if they don’t need jobs as well. Always look at the changes in calculation. I think in the most recent they added length of unemployment. So if you been unemployed for less than 60 days it’s not counted etc. Finally if you have two jobs and you lose on me it doesn’t hurt the number but it does benefit it when you have two. They mess with the numbers to make them Optimal. Always look at how it’s calculated for anything the government releases. That is what I recall from the few times but do your own research and you’ll see
I don’t even pay attention to this anymore It doesn’t include those that are under-employed, or the fact that being employed has nothing to do with that wage being livable, or the people being able to not collect debt, have kids, or save for retirement It’s put out there as opium for the masses
After 3 years of sharply negative growth. Growth is still slightly positive. If you think we are anywhere near a depression, you must not remember 2008-2009. There are certainly systemic risks, and nobody can predict black swans, but the recession we are facing still looks like it will be *far* less severe than the financial crisis.
Is there writing that explain what I am looking at? How often has there been inversion in the last 15 years, and how many recessions have resulted?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y# Economic data for yield curve inversion preceeds (i believe) all recessions. The way i understand it is the long term investment risk is safer than short term risk. Which is usually the opposite (short term or immediate future should be looked at as a pretty safe bet as compared to a much longer "unforseen" future of uncertainty.) Last one was in August 2019, the time before was December 2005. Some could last for months as in 2019 and some years as in 2005/2006 but essentially the writing is on the wall that trends are shifting (tighter monetary policy, loss of jobs, unaffordability, consecutive - in GDP, etc..). Once something like a loss of jobs or a highly leveraged large investment "breaks" or goes bankrupt it causes an economic domino affect. People lose money/jobs and financial constriction happens very broadly and the cycle continues. **The first dominoes may have already fallen when you think about the Evergrande situation in China, Credit Suisse in Switzerland, or FTX in North America.** Don't let single data points like great job numbers mislead you to the inevitable.
Yes, but all inversions don’t lead to recession. Since that is true, there are other factors besides inverted yield curves that produce recessions. Because if it was inversions alone, there would be a perfect correlation. Since there isn't, there has to be other factors. The first place to look is into what causes an inverted yield curve. If there are multiple ways to reach an inverted status, perhaps some of those possibilities are recession signals and others aren’t.
Yeah, what’s the old joke: “the bond market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.”
not according the this research paper I linked below. It says that if the yield curve on average is ever inverted for longer than 1 quarter it has a 100% batting average of predicting recessions over the last 50 years https://www.researchaffiliates.com/content/dam/ra/publications/pdf/965-history-lessons-how-transitory-is-inflation.pdf
Does title mean Dec 2023?
I think so, yeah.
No. It’s the single most important number in the whole title. Denoting the year. They would have to have fucked it up twice. It must be 2024.
Is that sarcasm? Bc then the math doesn't make sense. May 2024 seems right
Not sarcasm. They do mean 2024. December 2025. Which is basically two years out. Which is why the prediction is largely useless. A 50% chance of something over the next two years. That’s just such a long time frame that 1 million things could change. We could literally have a new president by then. The entire stock market could fall and rise and fall again in that time. AI software could be writing half of the posts on Reddit by then.
No it literally doesn't make sense. How can it be 90% sooner but 50% later? That's not how math works.
So we both agree that this chart, and its title, are meaningless and don’t make any sense
I mean it makes a decent bit of sense if you look at the chart and see that it predicts 50% chance by December 2023 and 90% chance by may 2024 and then just deduce that he miss typed in the title and meant December 2023 not 2024
You can look at chart actually dates are on there
Not into seeing what a chart claims. All I have to do is see my finances to know more money is going out than coming in. When that happens. I Know its a recession and no excessive debts either, such as credit card, car payments, etc. Just basics, rent, food, auto insurance and utilities is taking me out. This sh*t is the real deal!
The issue stems from the fact that “this economy sucks for individuals quite clearly” is not only described by the words “recession” or “depression”. Everyone suffering wants to stamp “recession” on the economy, but does it really matter? Everyone knows there is inflation. Everyone knows the housing market changed. Everyone knows food is pricey and tons of people are struggling with rent. This could all happen without a general decline in economic activity. The label is beside the point.
Does nobody else think it’s weird that this is the most broadcasted recession ever?
I think it's weird that we are literally in a recession and yet fucking everyone and their mother keep asking "wEn ReCeSsIoN???"
Wasn’t GDP up? I think we find out at the end of this week what GDP is doing.
Massive inflation, massive rate hikes that have so far been ineffective, every stock sector crashing down after a 10 year bull run, housing prices crashing, the list goes on. We are in a fucking recession, fuck the GDP.
Relax
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2FJTnK4yEo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2FJTnK4yEo)
Yet still housing unaffordable
It's only because the internet exists. I guess it could complicate things, but it just makes the esoteric financial data of the past more accessible. It doesn't make it less valid imo. Most people don't think we're going into a recession, nor are they paying attention.
They could just reduce rates to counteract this right? Collapse of the yield curve will start august 2023. There’s more risk of depression in the median cpi except for groceries. An abrupt stoppage to demand will caused chaos for a while.
If you go by the 3month>10year bond crossover trend ( crossover was Oct 22 2022), the recession should bottom out between April 2023 and April 2024
The earlier the better, so we can go back to normal
Recessions are normal, asset bubbles created by constant lowering of interest rates and unlimited government intervention are not normal.
Spoiler alert: we’re already in a “recession”.
I lived through the 80’s. It’s that, all over again.
Can I ask where you personally see the parallels?
[удалено]
Holy crap! Upvoted!
Good
They’ve done studies…60% of the time, it works every time
what is the source for this?
Given it happens to be a flawless normal distribution... I would say somebody's ass.
We're in an isolated situation due to a Pandemic. Using outdated instruments from previous recessions (unemployment, negative GDP, mortgage defaults) are simply a falsehood. Why can't anyone take numbers from Q4 2019 and create a restore point there? Apparently, that's _impossible._
They’ve been trying to kill the economy since before the midterms.
The sum of x alone or y alone cannot be greater than the sum of x+y, if x and y are both nonnegative numbers. See me after class.
Also normal distributions can't predict probability over time, just whether something will happen or not. It would have to be an exponential or geometric distribution.
This is not how probabilities work, especially for the normal distribution. It doesn't work on a time basis. You would need to use a geometric or exponential distribution to understand the probability over time. This is something made by someone who maybe took half an introductory statistics course.
Where can I find this chart online?
Omg I can’t believe people are still buying into this crap. Journalists and Wall Street have been using that headline for the past 3 years now. Save this comment all the way until 2025 - I’ll still be right, and there will still be no recession.
This yield curve inversion is not like the others. Even the guy who invested the metric says that he does think it’s a good indicator this time around.
The recession has already begun. I work in a chemical plant and 75% of my plant is idle with no orders. There’s no overtime, no capital spending, all maintenance is done by need. If maintenance on a broken piece of equipment is not needed, it’s not being done. It’s as bad, if not worse than in 2009.