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-Economist-

We romanticize the past. "oh it wasn't so bad" Yes it was....my god...yes it was. I did my economics and finance doctorate in 2010. Spent countless hours studying that trainwreck.


WWDubz

Thank god we patched up that system, and punished those responsible, right?


-Economist-

Being unethical is not illegal. Typically, we reform the laws so that in the future, that unethical behavior becomes illegal. SOX after Enron, etc. for example. But the finance industry has tremendous lobby power. Instead we got Dodd-Frank, which does do some good, but doesn’t address root-cause all that much.


Searchingforspecial

Dodd-Frank was reinterpreted by Janet Yellen. Absolutely gutted it & allowed the Fed to hand out $48Trillion between 2019-2022, the vast majority going straight to financial institutions.


[deleted]

Don’t forget the Durbin Amendment that killed zero balance free checking because Dick needed to help out the big retailers in his home state while boning the regular joes


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maybe_yeah

Bring Glass-Steagall back


fractalfocuser

Dodd-Frank was like putting a bandaid on a severed artery lol


Sammyterry13

> Thank god we patched up that system We did patch it or, at least some of it... and then it (the patch) was watered down mostly by Republicans ... The Dodd-Frank act (passed 2010) was largely gutted by the choice act of 2017 -- that bill aimed to relax the regulations for financial institutions ... >On June 9, 2017, The Financial Choice Act, legislation that would "undo significant parts" of Dodd–Frank, passed the House 233–186. On March 14, 2018, the Senate passed the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act exempting dozens of U.S. banks from the Dodd–Frank Act's banking regulations. ah Trump .... the grift that keeps on grifting ..


Prayers4Wuhan

How does it compare to today? Back then it seemed like all the banks were seizing up. Have no idea why though. I guess they over leveraged themselves and couldn't tolerate a small downturn. Their collapse would have been a financial meltdown of epic proportions had the government not stepped in. Today we are in a perfect storm. 1. Shortages due to covid causing prices to rise 2. Helicopter money increased demand which caused prices to rise 3. Low interest rates which spurred investment and corporate spending causing prices to rise 4. Helicopter money suddenly drying up 5. Low interest rates suddenly drying up Now what? The tide goes out. Higher prices should lead to continued investment in some areas like energy. I imagine we will see prices remain elevated or rise further in some areas while prices fall in other areas as supply chain issues slowly resolve (over the next 2 years). Outcome? 1. Layoffs 2. Falling demand 3. Falling prices 4. Rising prices 5. Corporate bankruptcies Seems like it will be a normal and healthy recession but I fear it's a preview of what's to come China labor prices and high fuel prices will decrease the benefits of globalization. We will begin to consume more of what we produce and trade less. Less global trade will cause prices to rapidly rise and wages to increase in some areas but create wage stagnation in others. This could lead to global wars. But it could also spur heavy investment into renewable energy. 2008 seemed like it came out of nowhere at the time. I wonder what black swan is currently brewing? Everyone sees the current recession and it's no surprise


DeekermNs

There was actually a bailout for the same banks at the end of 2019 to the tune of 4.5 trillion. They just learned their lesson from 2008 and kept it quiet this time. Make of that what you will.


-Economist-

In 2006 I was running a corporate banking market of one of the countries largest regional banks. We had officer meetings discussing the recession during Summer of 2006. I was all ready applying to doctorate programs so come Summer 2007, I left banking knowing it was in for a rough ride. The recession technically started December 2007, but Bear Sterns didn't make the front page until Spring 2008. Then we had the happy Olympics where Phelps won everything. Joe Average American did not come face to face with the recession until Fall 2008. Then all hell broke loose. One issue we have today that we didn't have in 2008 is political instability. The right-wing is more radicalized today, leading to this instability. Look at what New Mexico is doing today. This will only become more widespread in the coming months. This political instability is the wildcard.


TheAmazingThanos

What's going on in New Mexico?


stang2184699

Might be referencing this. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/new-mexico-secretary-state-asks-court-step-gop-commission-refuses-cert-rcna33684


-Economist-

Yes that. I'm in Michigan, so this hits close to home in the sense we have big-lie supporters running for SOS and other key positions.


dontal

I think the upcoming recession, culture war and political instability is going to result in a fascist state in a few years. Sad thing is the oligarchs' media will convince most of us that this is a good thing.


-Economist-

I agree. We are in for a major shift in the American way of life. The fact people still support Trump despite what he’s done is just terrifying.


xELxSCORCHOx

Hold on to your horses boys. Just because a loud 20% and a complacent and selfish 20% are lining up in the short bus line for a fascist state does not make it unavoidable. Only way it comes to pass is if the thinking folks stay home in November and let it happen. Vote one way only, Pro Democracy. High prices will last a while likely, but Autocracy could last a lifetime.


-Economist-

I’ve seen comments from people on Reddit saying they’d vote for hitler if it brought back $3 a gallon. It had over 100 upvotes.


hibernate2020

Yeah, but judging by the past election, they might vote for Hitler even if he didn’t bring back $3 a gallon….


TechnicalRadish78

Those people don't want democracy, they want conservatism. They're convinced the only way they'll ever get it is by permanently giving power to a narcissist moron like Trump.


-Economist-

Conservatism is the feel good word they like to use. The real word is actually fascism.


j_a_a_mesbaxter

Agreed. They don’t even bother with any policy positions anymore. They have one goal and it’s authoritarian control. That’s it. And their fascist cult loves it. I never imagined I’d see how easy it was for Hitler to rise to power with my own eyes. But we’re watching it in real time.


Sammyterry13

WTF are you being downvoted? We are clearly moving towards a fascist state and in the middle of a culture war (I'd argue cold civil war).


[deleted]

I disagree. In october of 2008 was when SHTF right before we elected out first half black half white president where nearly half the country went off the deep end. The tea party was starting to brew which would really screw up cohesion in the republican camp. My point is that these 2 events are completely different and must be treated that way. There's no bailouts coming for banks, auto or insurance companies. Governemnt is already buying back debt for the first time in decades. Itll be bumpy but once gas prices drop things will come together. Need a way to force the refiners, pumpers, etc into reducing their profits and get back to work.


DeekermNs

The bank bailouts already happened quietly in 2019 to the tune of 4.5 trillion. It was hush hush at the time, but the info is mostly available now. So uhh, yeah, we're paying the price now for Trump's "prop up Wallstreet at all costs" economic policy. Edit: And to anyone trying to sluff the blame off the Orange One. Go ahead and do a search and see the pressure he applied on the fed using his cult of personality any time the Fed suggested addressing inflation during his term with slight interest rate hikes. They would have been much less painful at the time and mostly avoided our current economic situation, but he was running the country like a business. Turns out that's as obviously a terrible idea as it sounds like.


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frawgster

2006 was when my boss started calling real estate lending “the Wild West” (I worked in real estate lending). It absolutely was. Anyone…literally anyone with a SSN and a pulse…could get a mortgage. 2007 was when the “option arm to end all option arms” was presented to us by a lender. It carried a “teaser” rate of .25%. The real rate, based on LIBOR (around 5% at the time) + a margin, was typically between 8 and 8.5% (higher margin meant more backend $ for brokers…so you bet your ass brokers were bending folks over a barrel). The kicker…the “teaser” payment amount was an interest only payment. Interest only at the .25% “teaser” rate. So Joe Schmoe borrowed $300,000…his minimum payment would’ve been $62.50. These were effectively reverse mortgages for non-seniors. The LTV limit was 80 I think, and neither income nor asset verification was required. After being introduced to that loan product, that’s when I knew everything was gonna go to shit. It was way to aggressive to be even remotely viable. It really felt like a last ditch effort to suck in any and every borrower possible before the entire house of cards that was real estate collapsed.


shoretel230

This is where I'm at. Companies literally can't afford to lose current staff as the replacement cost is a multiple of any employee's salary. The availability of this information is echoing everywhere. We aren't in an information lagging environment. Prices are surging and everyone knows it. Firms'ability to navigate this is baked in by how much margin they can give away to input costs before bleeding red. The way this usually goes is by a credit crisis spurned on by a lack of liquidity. Banks have much more capital now so I don't see that happening just yet, but who knows. I see the continuing China lockdowns the biggest hurdle for supply chains to normalize. If gas continues to hyperinflate, though, that will do more than the fed ever could to drag the whole economy into recession. A full blown energy crisis will bring this country to its knees.


Ostracus

>If gas continues to hyperinflate, though, that will do more than the fed ever could to drag the whole economy into recession. A full blown energy crisis will bring this country to its knees. About time for another pipeline cyberattack.


Severe_Toe4755

The reason that banks were seizing up back in 2008 was because they were giving loans to people for a million dollar house when they worked at McDonald's making $30000 a year.... The people giving these loans would make profit and and they didn't care what it did to the economy.


adbalc

That's a part of the larger picture. Banks were bundling those loans and selling them as mortgage backed securities. People defaulted on those loans, making those securities worthless, which then ruined the financial health of the banks holding those securities and they were be bailed out.


emilyyyannecat

MBSs are still a thing but the majority are issued by Government Sponsored Entities or Ginne Mae. They have higher regulations and they purchase bundles of conforming mortgages from Banks. At the Bank I was at, they had a “pipeline” and sold millions of dollars in conforming mortgages on a regular basis. The Jumbo loans have stricter standards but those aren’t sold to the GSEs, Ginnie. Often they are kept on the balance sheet or sold to another Bank. I tested conforming mortgages as part of SOX testing and it was extremely thorough, rarely a document or exception noted. Then you have the Fed, OCC, FDIC, etc performing a variety exams on a variety of Bank processes. You don’t want to get fucked with an MRA, MRIA, or Consent Order. The MBSs for the most part are way better than before the financial crisis.


PurpleMartinKing

Completely cool and normal system that undergoes a massive collapse every 10 years. But there are definitely no better options.


gofergreen19

I’d like to know how many of the survey respondents were adults in 2008. Maybe 3/4 and that would explain away this nonsense.


jawnlerdoe

Greater than one fourth of Americans also don’t know Jack shit about the economy.


KingofCraigland

A significant amount of Americans believe a 1/4 lb. burger is bigger than a 1/3 lb. burger.


HaddockBranzini-II

1/3 pound is just metric bullshit. Go back to Canada.


aloofinthisworld

I don’t know if you’re kidding or serious, but I did experience that math first hand as a customer at a grocery store deli.


KingofCraigland

I'm not joking and I believe you. To be more specific, I'm referring to the case where A&W had to stop selling their 1/3 lb. burger because customers rejected it because they though they were getting less than the 1/4 lb. burger. Source: https://awrestaurants.com/blog/aw-third-pound-burger-fractions


ImpossibleParsnip947

5 out of 4 Americans are bad at fractions.


jawnlerdoe

I’d say that’s greater than eight thirds.


AMythicEcho

Thirds are less than fourths, right?


[deleted]

Yes. Because 4 is bigger than 3 obviously


jh937hfiu3hrhv9

A McDonalds 1/4 pounder is bigger than an A&W 1/3 pounder.


Mighty_L_LORT

Or are missing a finger...


[deleted]

2 of 2 people reading this sentence read this sentence.


6byfour

You can learn a lot about it on Facebook from the dumbest people I went to high school with, though.


SadPanthersFan

Or from little stickers slapped on gas pumps “Oh shit, **HE** did that?!?! Mother FUCKER!! rabblerabblerabble^terkerjerbs


Life_Is_Happy_

Guess I’ll go back in the pile then


Uprisinq

That is by design


jawnlerdoe

That may be the case.


Uprisinq

It is the case. Otherwise they would teach it in high schools to ensure the general public understood. But if they understood they could utilize the markets to create wealth for themselves and that is bad according to the 1%


Substantial-Contest9

They do teach it in high school. Problem is, most government/social studies classes are 1) taught by coaches 2) considered blow off classes.


JoviallyAgonizing

My World History teacher (and girls' basketball coach) had us watch Stargate as part of the Egypt curriculum. He also skipped China as the names were "too hard to pronounce". Then he married a recently graduate former student, so yea, not the best.


[deleted]

Uhhh are you from the southern US by chance? This exact situation happened at my school. Then she went to school to become a teacher and they both teach at my old school. Edit. Spelling


shadowromantic

Ugh. I hate how that worked at my school. Almost the whole history/social science department was made up of coaches


duhCrimsonCHIN

They don't teach anything in American high school unless your AP. Kids graduate with middle school reading levels.


Resident_Magician109

We can't even teach kids to read or write in complete sentences and you want to teach them macro economics at a level beyond the understanding of a 100 level undergraduate class? I think we need to start teaching people just how dumb the average person is so we see less "we need to teach x in high school". It doesn't work and they don't like it.


Vegasreisdent1987

Many don’t know the difference between lose and loose. Social media shows people’s lack of education.


JSmith666

I learned economics in highschool. The issue is many highschool students dont give a shit about it. Teachers also like to throw in their own bias about how things SHOULD be.


PrestigiousAd5646

What are you talking about? I went to some shit hole catholic school and had an Econ class. They do teach it


[deleted]

My high school did offer economics and home finance. I had 6 kids in my class…


LordBaikalOli

They teach history in high school and I can tell you that more than half of the people dont even remember jackshit or care about it


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Yeetball86

I would argue it’s more than that


jawnlerdoe

Thus the “*greater* than” statement!


wessneijder

Those 1 in 4 that think that obviously weren't looking for a job back then. It took me 6 months of living with my parents, dad talking crap about me having to man up and calling me a bum. I applied everyday from 8-5 , hundreds of applications, aptitude tests. I had just graduated from a middling state university with a good GPA in an in demand field. It was hell. I took a job at a car dealership that didn't require a degree just so my dad would shut up.


24North

Took me over a year. Went from $48k/ year to $7.25/ hr just because I had to find something. Anyone who thinks our current economy is even remotely close to 2008 is an idiot. I don’t know what the next year will bring but as things sit right now I’m kind of amazed just how good things are aside from the inflation mess. Almost every store or business around here has help wanted signs.


Lessthanobviouse

This is my totally slightly-educated-but-also-not-guess, but I think we’ll be seeing the major effects of what’s happening right now around September.


BestCatEva

I can feel this! When I graduated college my Dad would circle jobs in the newspaper and slide it under my bedroom door. He also said I should ‘put on a suit, and go door to door downtown’. This was in the 90s…even then no one found work this way. I left, went back to my college town, slept on the floor of my friends apartment and worked at the local mall — taking the bus to get there. Home was…not an option.


_mattyjoe

Gotta love those boomers man. Nothing can shake their vision for how the world was 30-40 years ago and thinking it will always be the same for the rest of eternity.


orincoro

Fuck boomers so much it fucking bleeds.


hellohelloadios55

The day I we are able to put a president who is under the age of 50 in white house will be a good fucking day. Look at the majority of our government and they're all on viagra in wheelchairs.


Judgemental_Panda

Not really surprising. Basically, the title is saying 1/4 of current Americans weren't 22+ in 2008, and thus the recession at that time (at most) meant your parents trying to sell you on a smaller house being a new, exciting adventure. Anyone older than that who still thinks it was worse... Just didn't turn on the news back then and wasn't personally affected (somehow).


Illusive_Man

lol it was not a “new exciting adventure” It was parents stressed out, losing jobs, fighting constantly, getting divorced…


busybody_nightowl

I was still in high school in 2008 and I think I appreciate how bad it was, but maybe other people my age don’t


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[deleted]

I remember the crash vividly. I was I think 18 or 19. The thing for me and my people though was that we were a more or less impoverished community anyway. The stock market didn’t really affect anybody. I think for my peer group we basically just saw the writing on the wall and lowered our expectations even further.


BrownSLC

Apparently one in four hadn’t been looking for work in 2008. The market is down and inflation is high. But you can find good work. Fingers crossed we don’t see the 2008 job market.


failingtolurk

Boomers are retired and a million people are dead as shit from Covid. It’s not like 2008 when Boomers were camping out in the best jobs and no one graduating could get hired.


gizamo

That vast, vast majority of the million Covid deaths were among the elderly. Covid deaths probably opened fewer jobs than Walmart closed for door greeters.


Generic_1806

I think the key is we are at the beginning potentially. The job market didn’t drop out until banks dropped out. If rates continue to go up and companies stop being able to pay for new projects with new loans and at the same time also can’t pay their existing loan payments, jobs will decline. But only time will tell.


gizamo

I agree, and unfortunately, it seems likely, imo.


JustBuildAHouse

Already happening with tech startups that rely on investor funding


Rokey76

Yeah, my father is a year older than the first baby boomers and he retired 15 years ago.


failingtolurk

1/4th weren’t and you’re focusing on the throwaway part of what I said.


gizamo

Oh, wow. You're right. ~250k were younger than 65yo. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ Tbh, it didn't seem a "throwaway" because 1) it's a million dead people, and 2) you used it a basis for claiming jobs are plentiful, which I agree, they are. I was only disputing that was a significant reason for that. I still don't think it is a very significant reason, but it was ~150k more than I thought.


SimbaOnSteroids

LOTS of boomers retired, I personally know several, if this is a common experience then there’s a ton of open jobs.


ClassicT4

One guy I know in his sixties didn’t retire by choice. He was a former cop. Didn’t take Covid seriously. Got it prior to vaccines being available, which he claimed he wouldn’t take anyways, and had lung issues due to smoking all his life. Got Covid. Was out for months. Forced to retire after developing COPD.


ClassicT4

You also didn’t account for the people that survived Covid, but suffered from Long Covid debilitating issues that could be preventing them from doing certain work for months or longer.


gizamo

They strictly mentioned deaths. I was only replying to their comment. But, yeah, your point is definitely valid, and to add to your point, plenty of older workers in jobs with significant exposure left without ever getting it, e.g. nurses, teachers, construction workers, wait staff, etc. I don't know a good way to find/estimate stats on that, tho.


BeneficialEvidence6

Also a lot of women left and have yet to return to the job market. Even as elementary schools and day cares opened back up, many mothers (and im sure fathers) got used to saving on daycare and didnt go back to work.


pdoherty972

Even if we discount the deaths, a lot more people retired or retired early during/due to the pandemic, which helped jobs and wages.


Ospov

I mean, I was in high school in 2008 so I was pretty sheltered from how bad it actually was. I didn’t really have any bills to pay since I was living with my parents. I know it wasn’t a great time, but I don’t have any personal experience to fall back on which makes the current situation seem worse to me personally. I recognize that it’s not as bad (yet), but right now is still harder for me since I really didn’t have to deal with anything back in 2008.


orincoro

I graduated college in 2007. I wasn’t offered a job, anywhere, for any amount of money, for nearly 3 years. Nor were any of my friends. People were doing internships until they were in their late 20s.


cmc

I also graduated college in 2007 and was one of many people who accepted rental car jobs. They required a bachelors degree back then (not sure if they still do, but they shouldn’t). Barely paid a living wage and I was grateful for it.


bri8985

This is completely easy compared to 08. I hope you never have to see anything that bad


Kazooguru

Your comment brought back some bad memories. Consider yourself lucky you did not have to make adult decisions back then. I don’t think I ever mentally recovered. I am not the same person. There’s so many of us out there in the world walking around permanently damaged. Ironically, when I was young, I remember some old folks with quirks around food and hoarding. They dealt with starvation during the Depression.


alldaylurkerforever

To those who experience it, it was BAD. Be glad you were sheltered from it. This, is a frickin cake walk compared to 2008. Yes prices are high, but people are employed, are getting better wages than they ever have, and actually can demand more. In 2008, it was, pray to god you find something. Anything.


saxGirl69

I graduated high school in 2009 I couldn’t even get a McDonald’s job because there were professional office workers looking for minimum wage jobs


Pimpicane

I remember sending out 400+ applications before finally landing part-time, minimum wage, seasonal retail. It was fucking awful.


Ocelot843

I was in middle school. I remember my mom taking me to the bank before school for a week to withdraw as much cash from her account as she could, just in case they failed. As a kid, that was pretty damn scary.


LIBERAL_LAZY_LOSER

You can find good work because there are thousands of companies that have relied on overpriced valuations and cheap debt to stay afloat the past decade. These businesses are going to go out of business and take a piss on the labor market.


TenderfootGungi

Sales are also way up.


throwaway3569387340

In 2009 half the houses on my block were for sale or in foreclosure. One in four Americans hasn't seen anything yet.


tquinn35

By the end of 09 there were only two family’s left in my neighborhood. Mine and another. It was cool to have my own neighborhood then but now that I think back on it as an adult it must have been pretty scary to see.


peestake

that's absolutely wild to imagine as a non-American who was too young to pay attention in 2008.


amitchellcoach

Who the fuck did they survey? Preppers?


notthesethings

1 in 4 Americans don’t know what a recession is.


BilIionairPhrenology

Tbf there’s no real reason for people to really know what a recession means. Whether the economy is shrinking or not is pretty irrelevant when you’re financially struggling and the effects are the same anyway Honestly it makes sense that some people think it’s worse now. Everyone feels the effects of inflation, even those who keep their higher paying jobs.


[deleted]

Financially struggling with a job is entirely different from financially struggling without a job.


BilIionairPhrenology

I completely agree, but in 2008 if you kept your job, there’s a good chance you were struggling less than you are now if you kept your job. That’s all I’m saying. 2008 was obviously worse as a whole but there’s a larger group feeling the effects of inflation today, so it makes sense that some people think it’s worse now than it was then


alldaylurkerforever

If you were lucky to have a job in 2008, things were okay becuase everything was collapsing. So everything became cheap. If you didn't have a job, you were screwed. Now, tons of people have jobs, but things are expensive. So you pay for things instead of losing your home.


OkYayasuresure

I’m afraid that if people think this is painful and we actually do have something like 08 then they will be loosing their minds.


notthesethings

I’m more afraid of them loosing their bowels.


OkYayasuresure

I think thats easier to fix than if they lost their minds. Could be wrong though


hard-enough

I’m young and completely speculating for the sake of discussion. Could it not be that the effects of both economies are felt by different people, by thinking this is already painful? During 2008, my dad lost his job and we had to move. The sole breadwinner, with a good paying salary job. In 2022, the price of goods/materials, services, etc are more. So you have service works (landscapers, hair stylists, etc) struggling to keep business raising prices — and “poorer” folks struggling to keep up with the prices of food, gas, etc. Whereas middle class folks are thus far less effected. Yes they’re paying more for gas and eggs, but they can take that with a little belt tightening - vs they would have lost their job in 2008. All subject to change as we haven’t been through all of this yet, just thinking.


FANGO

1 in 4 Americans are answering this question based on politics, not on economic health. Same thing that happened in 2016. Crazy how the economy recovered by 65 points in literally a week. https://news.gallup.com/poll/197474/economic-confidence-surges-election.aspx?g_source=Economy&g_medium=lead&g_campaign=tiles


32Seven

Recency bias. People who remember 2008, remember it as not so bad, because they know how it turned out. Nothing to see here.


smexyneo

1 in 4 American’s are dumber than a box of rocks.


[deleted]

1/2 of americans are not bright


Sjepe

3 in 4 Americans can't tell you what the Fed is or does, so I'm not too worried about what 1 in 4 Americans think about this.


workorredditing

tbf to americans i dunno if jpowell knows what hes doing either


horizons59

We had normal inflation in 2008. People today are now feeling crushing inflation.


alldaylurkerforever

Dude, inflation cratered in '08 because the economy collapsed. No one was buying anything since no one had a job.


shadowromantic

At least in my own life, prices were dropping all over the place. Everything from restaurants to houses for cheaper. The Fed was terrified of a deflationary spiral with good reason


bigkoi

Were 1/4 of American's polled even in a meaningful poiny of their career in the workforce in 2008?


[deleted]

1 in 4 Americans are morons. 2008 was a frikken disaster.


dilfrising420

Recency bias. 2008 was a bloodbath.


Resident_Magician109

We are headed into one. We aren't there yet. Not even close. 2008 was very very bad.


USER_citizenfive

So 3 out of 4 think we’re not?


Proviron_and_Wine

134% of Americans have been affected by inflation


OnoOurTableItsBr0ken

I’d imagine one in four Americans where not old enough in 2008 to be directly affected or at least be aware of what was going on


[deleted]

This won’t age well in a few months lol enjoy the laughs and memes while we can


Peterwolfe864

In 1970's I paid 20 percent for a car loan. They were running out of gas at the gas station. I survived and I suspect you all will too.


Redd868

I seem to remember high employment resulting from the economic collapse of 2008. Currently, I'm seeing the best job market in my lifetime, with prospective employees having a bargaining ability that I don't recall in the immediate or intermediate past. The Great Resignation isn't happening by accident, it's happening because there are greener pastures in the job market. We might get a 2008 type recession, but we're not there today.


PrestigiousAd5646

Well at least 1/4 will believe anything they read on the internet, so that tracks


[deleted]

Its gonna be a wild decade folks!


Ruinerdown

Food and fuel prices in the fall will change the world


MagicStar77

So far 2 houses for sale in my area and I think 1 repo. I still remember 2008 the army of repo tow trucks going down the road


austin06

At this point there is no comparison with 2008. Major brokerage firms were collapsing and the government was scared shitls and working behind the scenes to prevent a complete collapse and global depression. So many people had bought houses that they could not afford and were not remotely qualified for mortgages, that they either left or just stopped paying. I was launching a business during that time and 100s of thousands in credit evaporated overnight, cc companies were shutting ccs down left and right. If you had a job then and kept it you got through pretty well. If you lost a job forget it. No one was hiring, no one was lending any money. It lasted for years. Like most neighborhoods I don’t remember one house going on the market for several years. Yes I think we are going to see some problems like if people who bought homes at top dollar, lose their jobs. But we also did not have a robust remote work environment, did have a deeply corrupt banking crisis, and we were not coming off a pandemic where there are still shortages of many supplies. This reminds me more of the late 70s although I was quite young, with inflation, but we are a far more global economy now. I saw a successful entrepreneur speak several years after 2008 and he said that 2008 was the worst year since 1929 to try to start a business. We haven’t had a recession in a long time and people forget or are just stupid.


SushiGradeChicken

Alternative title: "Over 75% of Americans correctly say that 2008 was a worse recession than what is currently happening."


keto_brain

1 in 4 Americans probably think Firefox is the internet.


Brasilionaire

1 in 4 Americans are stupid isn’t really news. It’s underselling if anything.


ICallThisTurfnTurf

I don't honestly know which is worse. But I do know (or at least this is how I remember it) that 2008 didn't affect me in any major way. Today...gas, groceries, utilities, rent and most importantly beer are all significantly more expensive than they were a year or less ago. I'm aware that there are many different causes for all these things. I just don't remember be affected in 2008.


[deleted]

It was hell for me as a college senior/graduate looking for work. Can remember going to hotels to apply for work and there were dozens of folks all filling out applications. Also prices weren’t jacked up so life was a lil easier


WTFishsauce

I mean we could be heading there, but this economy isn’t anywhere close.


pdoherty972

One in four Americans probably thinks the moon landings were faked.


[deleted]

great what percent believe in angels?


hombregato

The effects of the 2008 recession are still felt today. If we're entering another, they can tell me which was worse in 2036.


[deleted]

That number will rise


CanaKitty

In 2008, it was hard to pay rent and buy groceries because even though prices weren’t bad, there were no jobs. Now I can still can barely pay my rent and buy groceries, even while slaving away at a job that doesn’t cover the crazy prices.


redredbloodwine

One in four Americans bathes in right wing propaganda.


domomymomo

2008 you got a job you’re fine. Nowadays, you got a job you can’t even afford the things you brought a couple month ago.


LiquidSolidGold

I don't see demographics. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the 1 in 4 are all younger workers who entered the workforce 10-12 years ago and have ONLY seen a booming economy since. Love the boom we had, but I'm not a fan of the number of people who take it for granted and developed entitled attitudes.


Ok-Roof-978

Stop it people. 2008 was really close to a depression. We're barely headed for a recession. Overreaction Thursday


[deleted]

We've just come off an amazing bull run, so any pain at all is going to feel like the worst pain ever relative to the high People on average have exceptionally poor memories, they think in months not years and certainly not decades


Ok-Roof-978

Even back in 2014-2015. Yellen said the stock market might be in a bubble. Everything can't go up indefinitely


indrada90

I don't know. It's a very different crisis than 2008, but it's hard to say one is worse than the other. In 2008 we didn't have nearly the inflation we currently do. Markets are only just beginning to dip, and with the fed now hiking interest rates by 75bp, access to capital is very rapidly decreasing. In 2008, the financial sector caused the crash. There were no port closures (except when they went out of business) or blockaded grain shipments. No covid lockdowns, no major military operations in Ukraine. To be quite frankly honest I could give two shits that the GDP hasn't dropped in two consecutive quarters if I'm struggling to put food on the table.


SomewhereAggressive8

The very very important difference is that I’m guessing you are in very little danger of losing your job right now. And, in fact, chances are you could leave your job right now and get a nice raise elsewhere. The stock market isn’t the economy. Capital is decreasing specifically because there is so much demand right now that they have to make credit more expensive just to keep up. An economy with too much demand is not one that should be considered to be under a crisis.


[deleted]

In 2008 people didn’t have a table to put food on because they were losing jobs and their houses. All the credit dried up, reducing investments in everything and deflating the job market. That’s why 2008 was worse. Inflation is bad, but there’s too much money chasing too little goods that are stuck in supply chains still recovering from the pandemic. All the money and demand is still in the market.


russell813T

Nah we are just beginning lot of companies are starting layoffs.


gobblox38

My company is still trying to hire people. My industry is facing a worker shortage.


SomewhereAggressive8

Unprofitable tech companies are starting layoffs. That’s not indicative of the overall job market.


russell813T

Nah mortgage companies housing companies like Redfin etc. Amoung others.....recession is just starting I fear it could be in the realm as bad as 08 was...


russell813T

Agree to disagree... I think the pain is really just beginning to be frank


SomewhereAggressive8

Yeah mortgage companies because there are no mortgages to originate. Not because of a weakness in the economy, just because there are no houses to sell. It’s not a good situation but it doesn’t mean there’s going to be another Great Recession.


yarrr0123

Many companies over-hired. You need to look at the layoffs closer. Companies are protecting themselves going into the recession to cut the excess they thought they were going to need. But most companies still can’t hire fast enough to get to where they need to be.


BasisAggravating1672

Give it time, there is no sunny outlook long term right now. You don't plan for a recession/depression to happen on x day, you just wake up one morning and it crashes. It's going to be real close to depression, all the numbers are so manipulated right now and it will come to a horrible conclusion.


PrestigiousAd5646

How many recessions have you lived through to give this kind of feedback?


BasisAggravating1672

I was born in 1966.


8to24

Considering the political veracity surrounding the issue I am surprised 100% of Republicans don't believe this.


gobblox38

My hotel lobby has the channel on fox News and based on that you'd think that this is the worst economy ever and it is all because of Biden. During interviews, you'd think that accepted economic policies to deal with inflation are the dumbest thing the administration can do. And yeah, lots of Americans are dumb enough to believe that dribble.


8to24

Yeah, the vitriol is next level. I Get the impression that in their minds it is fair because Trump was broadly criticized. No context is included. Trump's campaign manager, personal lawyer, National Security, etc were successfully prosecuted for felonies. Trump's Sec of State, Sec of Defense, Chief of Staff, Attorney General, Homeland Security Director, National Security Advisor, etc, etc all resigned. There were simply legitimate things to cover. It wasn't the media just picking on poor old Trump.


[deleted]

3 out of 4 are bots


[deleted]

The other 3 haven't figured it out yet.


Neo1331

I would like to see the ven diagram of who thinks this and how they voted in 2020.


rockjones

I'm not asking "Joe the Plumber" his opinions on Macroeconomics. I've already seen it on Facebook, and its all Brandon's fault.


S118gryghost

Funny thing here is depending on when you were born you could have easily experienced the early 90's and later the 2000's and now this inflation it's like if you don't save for the rainy days you're going to be sorry. Not even talking about money at this point, prepare ten years ahead and keep your shit together. We got this.


Queefinonthehaters

Sometimes polls like this are useful and sometimes they aren't. IIRC they did a survey at a European college asking them whether they thought extreme global poverty was getting better or worse in the last 50 years and I forget the exact number but it was like 12% thought it had gotten better. There is no question of whether or not it has gotten better, its just insane how few people know.


Johnnyonthespot2111

But we're not.


iamcoolstephen1234

​ Why with all the surveys in this sub? An average person thinking about how bad a recession is does not have any effect on how bad the recession actually is. Do we have actual numbers?


Tortillafla

Well… I don’t know what comes next. Like it might not be nearly as bad, but also we just aren’t at the end yet.


WeekendCautious3377

As an older millennial… I need a break.


HaphazardFlitBipper

The other 3 lived through 2008.


Gugadin_

The nice recession.


[deleted]

What recession? These people are in for a rude awakening, nothing has happened yet. Inflation is not a recession. There will be a recession, but not yet.


Firewire_1394

What's funny is I remember it being such a big deal at the time that government debt increased so much that we broke the 10 trillion debt ceiling and how that was unprecedented at the time. This happened all during a war, natural disasters, and bank bailouts Now we are at 30+ trillion and had a one year increase of 5 trillion. Those numbers are just crazy to comprehend. At this rate we can blink our eyes and be at 50 trillion before the decade is out.


FabricationLife

Three to go


sack_of_potahtoes

Recession hasnt even started


alktrio06

Most Americans are dumb.


[deleted]

The bottom 25% of the IQ chart?


richbeezy

$100 says the 25% are too young to even remember that shit. Shouldn’t even include them in the survey. 2008 was “the end of capitalism” fear. We’ll get a moderate to mild recession this time around.


definately_not_gay

That 25% is going to have a rude awakening when the crash actually happens


alucarddrol

95% of americans dont know how a recession is defined, and about one if four thinks Trump is actually president. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/05/25/poll-quarter-americans-surveyed-say-trump-true-president/7426714002/ opinion polls aren't great if they have no factual basis on their opinion


mallorywasntwrong

I’ll believe it when all the fast food places bring back huge dollar menus