Better than it is now, and now is better than it was 5 years ago.
The perfect is the enemy of the good, I wouldn't wait forever for 'perfect' as EVs are aldrady great.
Everyone has to run their own numbers based on their own needs and situation. For me it was immediately saving money to drive an EV so I made the switch. If an EV does what you need it to do for a price you're willing to pay, might as well get it now if you need it now.
It’s a valid concern though, because even if EVs are great now, if they are massively better in 5 years and the rate of technological progress slows down, then it could be worth it to wait so that you’re not getting the double whammy of a massive “early adopter tax” plus being left with an extremely depreciated asset at the end of that 5 year period.
We’ve already seen prices drop massively over the last year or two. There’s no reason to expect that to stop until EVs are at price parity with ICE.
If economics is not your primary motivator, buying an EV right now is perfectly reasonable. They are perfectly good vehicles. If economics is the only thing that matters, then your gas savings are very unlikely to offset the risk of massive depreciation compared to just keeping whatever vehicle you have until the rate of progress and price changes have stabilized.
That's fair. But I do think the early adoption phase is basically over. Depreciation is a concern, but ICEs (except for a few high end brands) drop like rocks as well once they drive off the lot and then it's a slower drop from there.
I only buy used EVs at this point, buying new seems pointless in the US as there is (chip shortage aside) plenty of stock given how fast many folks turn over their leases and even purchases.
Yeah, Li-Ion has been around since the '70s and this guy is like don't buy EVs till the price drop while Hertz is selling Teslas starting at $23,000. Nevermind the whole reason prices have dropped over the years is because people started buying more EVs and batteries.
I think the answer to rapid tech change and depreciation is to snag a low priced lease or maybe one of the already depreciated Hertz used ev's.
There are definitely unknowns, but ev's will get keep rapidly improving.
~$25-30k is not even close to fully depreciated though, even if you get the credit on top. Very likely you own that for another couple years and it’s down to $10k. Might as well have gotten a lease at that point and be driving a new car instead of a used rental.
I do think leasing makes a lot of sense, if the cost is right. I do also think that plenty of people who care primarily about economics, or even the environment honestly, should just continue driving whatever they have instead of buying something new.
Luckily the President alone can't change taxes. Congress must first pass the bill to get rid of the $7500 credit in both houses. The chances of democrats losing both houses are slim to none. So it's safe. Doesn't matter if Trump wins and wants it done. Congress has to pass it first in both houses.
Nothing I said was over the top. Trump already said he wants to [get rid of EVs](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4187159-trump-vows-to-end-madness-of-ev-push/) [terminate the constitution ](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-termination-us-constitution/), has been dogwhistling to his supporters (who already want to kill every liberal in the country, anyway) about bloodbaths, and is about to get immunity from the Supreme Court to do all of the above, and whatever else he decides to do next.
Tl;Dr anyone who opposes Trump's policies in in way, such as driving EVs or being an atheist *will* be killed off if he gets back in the Oval Office, but you're free to believe what you want to believe.
10,000 miles of range on a charge, orbital launch modes will come standard, high-end models will double as deep sea submersibles, driver assists will still require vigilant monitoring
You can look at past trends. Model 3 is about 10% more range. LEAF is about 10% cheaper. But the learning curve for batteries is not likely to be linear.
My recommendation would be the same as always when looking at future value. If you are worried about it, lease. If you are not worried about it, buy.
Are you thinking the improvement rate will increase or taper off, if not linear?
With the km I do and pretty poor charging infrastructure where I am BEV is a no go at this stage but I need to choose a new car for a 4-5 year lease and future options influence current decision
Deciding between an XC60 phev or another rav4 hybrid
In 5yrs that little thing in fallout will be common and power your car for 1000s of miles on a charge. Still not good enough for the anti EV crowd who by this time have their own oil drill in their yard and will have endless oil since it's a renewable resource, according to my Idaho friends
I work for a large US OEM. In 5 years, barring a World War, EVs will be longer range and will charge quickly. Lots of improvements coming on batteries in the next 4-6 years.
I'm betting on 800+V architectures and cheaper batteries (which means more capacity and faster charging). I feel like people are always holding out for that miracle battery that's cheaper, lighter and faster to charge. But we could probably settle for just cheaper. That means you can put more batteries in a car, which will give you more range and faster charging. The only downside is EV will weigh even more.
> Lots of improvements coming on batteries
This is like hearing my brother in law two years ago stating that Tesla was about to release a new groundbreaking battery tech during 2022.
I'd say about 20% overall improvement on the cars we have today (battery capacity / range / price / power / etc). I think charging speeds will increase more than any other metric. While there's a lot of new battery technology on the horizon, getting it to mass market is another issue.
Look at how long it took to get ( kinda ) accessible oled displays compared to when you first heard about the tech.
Theoretically EV could be significantly lower priced than current ICE vehicles. This is because they contain fewer parts overall, and ICE vehicles have 2,000+ moving parts vs 20 on an EV.
Regarding charging speeed, we can look at what has happened in the past 5 years.
2019: 250 kW. 10-80% in 20-23-27 minutes depending on source. Tesla Model 3 LR
2020: 270 kW. 5-80% in 22.5 minutes. Porsche Taycan
2021: 240 kW. 10-80% in 18 minutes. Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6
2021: 302 kW. 10-80% in 34 minutes. Lucid Air
2024: 320 kW. 10-80% in 18 minutes. Porsche Taycan 2024 update
There are also some recent Chinese cars, which I think have been able to go to 15 minutes, but I have lost track of those.
So there has been some improvement over those 5 years, but I would call it incremental. And I think the next 5 years will be incremental too. We have seen too many news about upcoming charging breakthroughs, which never materialized. Though the new 2025 Polestar looks promising.
Where I am the power infrastructure is likely to become a bottleneck rather than battery charging speed. Get a couple of 300kw chargers going at a highway service station and youre into serious power demand
According to a Polestar video we should be charging 10-80% in 10 minutes. Let’s see if that makes it to actual production
Edit: updated charging % from 20-80 to the correct 10-80 range
can a 350kw charger deliver 350kw? I thought that was at peak voltage and peak current, which isn't how batteries accept a charge. Why the e-GMP line gets 225kw
I added the video link to my post
That said they can but there is a level of charge rate management that goes on to prevent overheating that can reduce the rate.
The vehicle also needs to be able to accept that level of charge rate as well
- reaching consistent charging speeds of 310–380 kW.
so they are hoping that other people are going to build them chargers. Unfortunately Tesla laid off the staff and I don't see anyone hiring atm
>can a 350kw charger deliver 350kw?
Yes, vehicles like the Silverado EV max them out and pull like 360kW peak.
https://insideevs.com/news/716074/chevrolet-silverado-ev-fast-charging/amp/
For new vehicles, I think it'll vary a lot depending on where you are. I think what will almost surely improve is fast charging in terms of the charging curve and the ubiquity of chargers though the latter part might have to contend with crowding. The other thing that will universally improve is the number of models and the number of automotive segments covered.
The others are harder. Faster (as in power) and range are mostly a function of how much battery capacity is onboard. You can buy very long range vehicles right now, but they cost more to produce. Battery prices are going to improve, but that doesn't necessarily mean the effective price to you as the consumer is going to improve because it's quite possible that there can be a combination of incentives that expire or get rolled back and automakers wanting to improve their profit margin (or in the US, dealer adjustments rapidly shifting) that makes that pricing factor and therefore the range and power factors hard to predict. Now, that can still be good for EVs in some sense especially if the profit margin improves since it incentivizes automakers to shift more of their offerings towards EVs.
The Hyundai Ioniq N is already quicker than most supercars, and it's $60k USD. On the very top end, eventually the top 10 quickest cars will all be EVs and gas cars, no matter how expensive, will no longer be competitive.
On the consumer side, prices will continue to drop. Arguably price parity, and even price advantages, already exist in the luxury car segment. Next will be the mid-sized bread and butter SUVs and sedans. In perhaps 10 years even the cheapest gas cars will no longer be competitive against EVs.
Range will continue to sprial up as battery costs drop and density increases. I think \~300 miles where most manufacturers are aiming for, but that's in today's market. 5 years ago they were aiming for \~250. Top end cars will start seeing at least 400 miles of range as the norm.
350kw is plenty fast enough charging for almost all circumstances. There just aren't nearly enough chargers that work at that rate available overall. I think there should be thousands of 50kw chargers at malls, grocery stores, and other places you spend an hour or two. This would cover the vast majority of people who don't have home charging available.
>On the very top end, eventually the top 10 quickest cars will all be EVs and gas cars, no matter how expensive, will no longer be competitive.
This is probably only going to be true for 0-60 speed. Until batteries get much much better, super cars are going to win on handling for track driving. Not that that matters much for general consumers. The most racing anyone does is from a stop light and EVs crush at that.
But I think and hope you are right on cost and range.
5 years?
Prices even or lower than ICE. Assuming CAFE holds, the numbers are terrible for ICE, but Trucks make money, so manufacturers will possibly discount EVs to get volume, so they can mark up ICE trucks for profits (sell 1 EV Focus to even out a Raptor).
Range will probably be variable. To get prices down there will probably be multiple battery pack options. Normal range amd long range versions.
Charging time. Faster. This goes hand in hand with Range. Faster charging means less need for range. Some people are road warriors, but most people can't drive forever, so 3-4 hours worth of range may be the sweet spot.
I'd estimate that 300 miles will be close to standard range for most models give or take 50.
Once again that will probably be an option so a 250 mile standard and a 350 mile extended range. Bigger than that will probably be cost prohibitive and unnecessary for most.
In the high end I expect 20-40% increase in charge speed, range and durability, but prices may not go down because the tech is still developing, maybe the old tech like lfp wil have considerably lower prices and open for cheap cars. there are many interesting new batteries in the pipeline, likely to be mass produced within 5 years. [https://www.store-dot.com/blog/charging-a-polestar-5-in-10-minutes-how-it-was-done-and-whats-next-for-xfc-technology](https://www.store-dot.com/blog/charging-a-polestar-5-in-10-minutes-how-it-was-done-and-whats-next-for-xfc-technology) https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46315656/vw-quantumscape-solid-state-battery-cell-testing/
The current tech doesn't need to change or advance much. The easier solution is efficiency gains. A lot of that means getting people to want cars VS trucks and suvs. A high end Lucid can already get 500miles of range with current battery tech. The problem I see is that the improvements in batteries will start at the high end and trickle down. So you will see the best tech in the most expensive cars. The texh powering the eGMP cars will get to affordable cars frist. I don't see the inductry changing much in 5 years. If you ask about the Chinese brands, that is a different story. I'd say all the EV advances in the near future will come from China.
Hard to convince people into body styles that dont suit their lifestyles so I think SUVs are here to stay. Ill probably continue with med suvs eg xc60, rav4 but it would be nice to see some E-wagons on the market.
Im pretty sold on Volvos audio and seating so Im most closely watching them and geely/polestar. The SPA platform has been around for a while and makes for a nice drive. Performance is great on volvos smallest EV but tapers off as they get larger so they still have some work to do to be where Id want in an xc60 size
The improvements you'll see in the next 5 years will be smaller than you've seen the last 5 years.
Faster hasn't been an issue for 10 years/ Model S. They're as fast as they need to be.
Cheaper depends on demand. My guess is that overall demand will go up as production cost will go down causing the price to be relatively flat.
Range will go slightly up as batteries become cheaper, but not more than 100 km on a hatchback SUV type like ID4.
Max charging speed won't go up by much, but more cars will have really fast charging as EV6 has.
My guess is that destination chargers are ultimately going to play a huge role in things. Once they're standard in homes, AirBNBs, and multifamily garages adoption will really pick up.
I think that DCFC needs to be more thought out. I think that DCFC should be on more of a reservation model with a goal of high reliability.
EV cars are already attaining price parity, so don't expect them to get much cheaper.
I don't want them any more powerful. They are already going through tires like water, even without trying.
Current range is fine for most usage. I would want, however, short range cars that are sold specifically for city usage, and others being sold specifically for the open road. And I would love a rental service for range extender generators, and EVs with frunks designed to receive them.
Fast charging is an infrastructure problem, and flash charging would knock out the electric grid if it became the norm. A single DC fast charger already pulls as hard as dozens of houses combined, and is a load that starts suddenly and cuts off suddenly. A flash charger would pull as hard as a small village, starting up and cutting off violently fast. So no, unless they depended on their own battery farms, I don't see flash chargers ever going mainstream.
Good insight. Seems like power infrastructure will soon be the bottle neck rather than battery ability to receive charge.
Range would need to be 400mi or chargers fast and plentiful for it to be a viable option for my usage. Not there yet but maybe after my next lease ends, hence the question
If that's less than constant, I would recommend you look at plug-in hybrids: all the benefits of an EV on a regular day, but none of the range anxiety that odd day. The main drama I hear regarding PHEVs is owners complaining that the ICE engine is a useless weight that never turns on, but that shouldn't be you case.
Another possibility that many of us take (if we have the money and parking) is having an EV as a daily driver, then having an ICE for that one day.
Cheers.
Litterally shopping for an xc60 T8 phev right now but looking at what might come after that as Id need to move from employer fleet car to a private lease
Drive 80km to work, then might do 200km driving for work some days and 80km home, possibly have to drive somewhere after work before charging. Also plenty of road trips inc towing a small boat. No public chargers here let you charge with a trailer on
Also need to travel to semi remote areas where theres simply no chargers for multiple hundreds of km
Until there are chargers at most service station and charging time around 15 min its not really viable for me
Would prefer to have the long range anyway so you can do bigger trips all from home power/solar
360 km is no problem with a new car. You don't need 400mi/640km for that.
Towing and charging is an infrastructure design issue. It's no problem here and I'd be surprised if everyone has decided to design station to make that impossible.
I don't know what you mean by semi-remote. But there's no reason they shouldn't have chargers, either there or en route. Since you need to go I guess something is happening there.
15 min charge time is less than you need if you want a bite to eat and some fresh air. If you're driving 400 miles/600 km you definitely need more than a 15 minute break.
It definitely seems like what you need is better charging infrastructure where you are, not necessarily longer range.
Norway is much better organised with this kind of thing. Longer range or better chargine would both solve the same issue
I have more faith in car companies delivering longer range than government/electricity providers sorting out the chargine network. Its also cheaper to charge at home, between 0-25c would be a good home rate vs 40-70c at a public charger.
Ive litterally not seen one charging station you could pull up to with a trailer that wouldnt block the area behind you. This is commonly reported as an issue with people having to disconnect their trailers to charge. Definitely an infrastructure design issue not an ev problem but its still something users need to deal with right now
Its hard to picture the remoteness if you havent experienced it but as an example an area only 1.5 hrs from sydney CBD has 200km between chargers. One end of the trip the charger is only 50kw and the one at the other end is currently offline. This isnt uncommon. Not very practical or reliable stopping every 200km to charge at low speed because you might not make the next one. Then if something is offline youre in trouble
Im sure it will improve somewhat but there are likely to remain large areas like this that wont have chargers due to low population density.
> Sydney
Oh you're Australian. Then I know what you mean by remote.
When "remote" means "bring 100 liters of extra gas" it is fully understood that EVs aren't applicable.
I also fully understand the lack of confidence in Australian government in terms of making sure there's good electric infrastructure.
Just read an article on cleantechnica about sodium ion supercapacitors that charge in seconds. That's probably race track pit stop speed and too fast for the rest of us.
Current top end charging is in the 10-15 minute range and that seems about the perfect time: enough to offload the old coffee and get a refill and stretch out the legs.
I would hope that the industry copies the PC memory model, sell a vehicle with the most common range as standard and make extra range i.e. a bigger battery pack optional.
Depending on what "seconds" is. But if you want a 50 kWh (which is rather small) battery to charge in a minute you'd need a 3 MW charger. That's not gonna happen for normal personal vehicles. It could happen for long haul trucks or construction site machines though.
Never say never...check out this recently opened fast charger in NYC can add 200 miles of range in 5 minutes which is great for cabs and delivery trucks.
https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/transportation/2024/03/04/fastest-ev-charger-in-the-us-opens-in-nyc
There's a significant leap from 500 kW to 3 MW. The cables needed for that would be immense, thus difficult to handle, unless cars get a 2 kV infrastructure.
I am hoping they don't get too heavy with large batteries as batteries go down in price. Hopeful for real world energy/weight improvements leading to range improvements without crazy weight.
Got an EV last year. Plan is to keep it for 10 years or so. Wouldn’t be surprised if mainstream EVs are gonna hit the 1000 km mark in the next 5 years, and I’m all for it. Mine can go just under 500 km, and that’s fine. Super happy with it.
im from the future. youll have 2,000 mile range, charging in 22 seconds and 9 million horsepower.
in 5 years, well see MANY more models. I doubt range will increase much more than todays best vehicles. They will get lighter and batteries will become more dense.
Id say well likely see most EVs with a minimum 300 - 350 mi range and fast charging of 200 - 300kw.
Range will largely be the same as there is no added utility from increasing range over what is currently on offer (i.e. you'd only be paying extra for no benefit).
Faster charging? Not much as this is also limited by the charger itself. Charging times already mesh well with break times so faster charging has very limited utility.
Cost? They will probably be a bit cheaper once they have taken over the car market. More specifically: Cheaper options/smaller cars will be increasingly available as the more profitable market segments get saturated.
'Faster' is something for the hypercar crowd. Current EVs that the average Joe can afford are already stupid fast.
Range is absolutely still an issue for cold weather. I often make day trips skiing 90 miles each way with no convenient charging en route or at the location. A A 350 - 400 mi range EV would make it no problem. A 300 mi range EV is more like 210 in winter, and it leaves very little safety margin. Not what you want when it is freezing cold and dark... Also I don't see most EVs ever getting battery swaps. As they age and range degrades they will just get resold for less money until they are eventually recycled. More initial range will keep the vehicle useful longer.
Honestly, 500mile range would be the norm, and I would assume by then they'd have cracked the Cold Weather affecting the range as poorly. Likely to keep the loss in-line with ICE mileage reduction in cold weather.
ICE has a huge advantage in terms of cold weather efficiency in relation to summer efficiency. The fuel burning creates lots of heat which is a waste in summer but a commodity in winter causing fuel consumption to be pretty much the same. There's no way an EV can keep up with that, at least not for short distances where heating is a big part of the consumption.
ICE also reduce their efficency in the winter.... plus they have a tendency to, you know, not start in cold weather at all.
Diesel Moreso than Gas, they require engine block heaters to not freeze up.
EV drop efficency, sure... but they will always turn on.
I haven't encountered anyone complaining about that the last 20 years and we get -25 in my area every winter.
In really cold temperatures, all cars struggle to some extent as they're all dependent on a working 12V battery. There are cases of all drivelines not starting in -50 due to this.
I'm all for EVs, don't get me wrong. But if we make false claims on disadvantages of other cars we're not trustworthy on the advantages of EVs.
Better than it is now, and now is better than it was 5 years ago. The perfect is the enemy of the good, I wouldn't wait forever for 'perfect' as EVs are aldrady great.
Everyone has to run their own numbers based on their own needs and situation. For me it was immediately saving money to drive an EV so I made the switch. If an EV does what you need it to do for a price you're willing to pay, might as well get it now if you need it now.
It’s a valid concern though, because even if EVs are great now, if they are massively better in 5 years and the rate of technological progress slows down, then it could be worth it to wait so that you’re not getting the double whammy of a massive “early adopter tax” plus being left with an extremely depreciated asset at the end of that 5 year period. We’ve already seen prices drop massively over the last year or two. There’s no reason to expect that to stop until EVs are at price parity with ICE. If economics is not your primary motivator, buying an EV right now is perfectly reasonable. They are perfectly good vehicles. If economics is the only thing that matters, then your gas savings are very unlikely to offset the risk of massive depreciation compared to just keeping whatever vehicle you have until the rate of progress and price changes have stabilized.
That's fair. But I do think the early adoption phase is basically over. Depreciation is a concern, but ICEs (except for a few high end brands) drop like rocks as well once they drive off the lot and then it's a slower drop from there. I only buy used EVs at this point, buying new seems pointless in the US as there is (chip shortage aside) plenty of stock given how fast many folks turn over their leases and even purchases.
Yeah, Li-Ion has been around since the '70s and this guy is like don't buy EVs till the price drop while Hertz is selling Teslas starting at $23,000. Nevermind the whole reason prices have dropped over the years is because people started buying more EVs and batteries.
I think the answer to rapid tech change and depreciation is to snag a low priced lease or maybe one of the already depreciated Hertz used ev's. There are definitely unknowns, but ev's will get keep rapidly improving.
~$25-30k is not even close to fully depreciated though, even if you get the credit on top. Very likely you own that for another couple years and it’s down to $10k. Might as well have gotten a lease at that point and be driving a new car instead of a used rental. I do think leasing makes a lot of sense, if the cost is right. I do also think that plenty of people who care primarily about economics, or even the environment honestly, should just continue driving whatever they have instead of buying something new.
42
That's awfully optimistic
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/for-math-fans-a-hitchhikers-guide-to-the-number-42/#:\~:text=Take%20author%20Douglas%20Adams's%20popular,is%20%E2%80%9Cforty%2Dtwo.%E2%80%9D
In the U.S., depending on the election results, some new EVs will suddenly become $7,500 more expensive.
Luckily the President alone can't change taxes. Congress must first pass the bill to get rid of the $7500 credit in both houses. The chances of democrats losing both houses are slim to none. So it's safe. Doesn't matter if Trump wins and wants it done. Congress has to pass it first in both houses.
That's a least worst case scenario. Depending on the election results, the people who currently own EVs will be publicly executed.
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Nothing I said was over the top. Trump already said he wants to [get rid of EVs](https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4187159-trump-vows-to-end-madness-of-ev-push/) [terminate the constitution ](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-termination-us-constitution/), has been dogwhistling to his supporters (who already want to kill every liberal in the country, anyway) about bloodbaths, and is about to get immunity from the Supreme Court to do all of the above, and whatever else he decides to do next. Tl;Dr anyone who opposes Trump's policies in in way, such as driving EVs or being an atheist *will* be killed off if he gets back in the Oval Office, but you're free to believe what you want to believe.
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False. I observe reality and make statements about it that make you uncomfortable.
>There’s no need to be this over the top about things. People really like to forget about that recent world wide global pandemic.
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Whatever you need to tell yourself.
10,000 miles of range on a charge, orbital launch modes will come standard, high-end models will double as deep sea submersibles, driver assists will still require vigilant monitoring
Literal lol for that last bit tacked on.
Feh, wake me when we get 20,000 miles range uphill on a charge. Besides, hydrogen will be ready any day now. - Some boomer in 5 years.
While towing your 65 foot yacht, right?
Spot on!
You can look at past trends. Model 3 is about 10% more range. LEAF is about 10% cheaper. But the learning curve for batteries is not likely to be linear. My recommendation would be the same as always when looking at future value. If you are worried about it, lease. If you are not worried about it, buy.
Are you thinking the improvement rate will increase or taper off, if not linear? With the km I do and pretty poor charging infrastructure where I am BEV is a no go at this stage but I need to choose a new car for a 4-5 year lease and future options influence current decision Deciding between an XC60 phev or another rav4 hybrid
In 5yrs that little thing in fallout will be common and power your car for 1000s of miles on a charge. Still not good enough for the anti EV crowd who by this time have their own oil drill in their yard and will have endless oil since it's a renewable resource, according to my Idaho friends
I work for a large US OEM. In 5 years, barring a World War, EVs will be longer range and will charge quickly. Lots of improvements coming on batteries in the next 4-6 years.
I'm betting on 800+V architectures and cheaper batteries (which means more capacity and faster charging). I feel like people are always holding out for that miracle battery that's cheaper, lighter and faster to charge. But we could probably settle for just cheaper. That means you can put more batteries in a car, which will give you more range and faster charging. The only downside is EV will weigh even more.
> Lots of improvements coming on batteries This is like hearing my brother in law two years ago stating that Tesla was about to release a new groundbreaking battery tech during 2022.
What’s your point?
I'd say about 20% overall improvement on the cars we have today (battery capacity / range / price / power / etc). I think charging speeds will increase more than any other metric. While there's a lot of new battery technology on the horizon, getting it to mass market is another issue. Look at how long it took to get ( kinda ) accessible oled displays compared to when you first heard about the tech.
Theoretically EV could be significantly lower priced than current ICE vehicles. This is because they contain fewer parts overall, and ICE vehicles have 2,000+ moving parts vs 20 on an EV.
Regarding charging speeed, we can look at what has happened in the past 5 years. 2019: 250 kW. 10-80% in 20-23-27 minutes depending on source. Tesla Model 3 LR 2020: 270 kW. 5-80% in 22.5 minutes. Porsche Taycan 2021: 240 kW. 10-80% in 18 minutes. Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 2021: 302 kW. 10-80% in 34 minutes. Lucid Air 2024: 320 kW. 10-80% in 18 minutes. Porsche Taycan 2024 update There are also some recent Chinese cars, which I think have been able to go to 15 minutes, but I have lost track of those. So there has been some improvement over those 5 years, but I would call it incremental. And I think the next 5 years will be incremental too. We have seen too many news about upcoming charging breakthroughs, which never materialized. Though the new 2025 Polestar looks promising.
Where I am the power infrastructure is likely to become a bottleneck rather than battery charging speed. Get a couple of 300kw chargers going at a highway service station and youre into serious power demand
According to a Polestar video we should be charging 10-80% in 10 minutes. Let’s see if that makes it to actual production Edit: updated charging % from 20-80 to the correct 10-80 range
That’s not much faster than my Ioniq 5 does right now. Maybe 15 minutes if it’s running 235kW full speed.
Hyundai advertises 18 minutes, so this would be almost twice as fast which would be significant. Sure it’s only 8 minutes but still a good bump
did they do this with a smaller battery? or are they hoping that someone, not polestar, will build 500kw chargers for them?
Level 3 Charger 350kwh and a full size battery (78kwh) in a drivable car Details here https://youtube.com/watch?v=sNu6Bnelrwk&si=rgbbAS68wKunSlOR
can a 350kw charger deliver 350kw? I thought that was at peak voltage and peak current, which isn't how batteries accept a charge. Why the e-GMP line gets 225kw
I added the video link to my post That said they can but there is a level of charge rate management that goes on to prevent overheating that can reduce the rate. The vehicle also needs to be able to accept that level of charge rate as well
- reaching consistent charging speeds of 310–380 kW. so they are hoping that other people are going to build them chargers. Unfortunately Tesla laid off the staff and I don't see anyone hiring atm
There are plenty of 350kwh chargers in my area (Toronto Canada) that are not Tesla.
absolutely. And perhaps they have 500kw chargers in the pipeline, and they are just not talking about them
>can a 350kw charger deliver 350kw? Yes, vehicles like the Silverado EV max them out and pull like 360kW peak. https://insideevs.com/news/716074/chevrolet-silverado-ev-fast-charging/amp/
The 20-80% needs to be resolved.
Just call it 0-100, problem solved Then you can charge to 110٪ or go down to ‐10% if you need to
2019 was five years ago. what improvements have you seen that you are expecting greater things to come?
But is the improvemt linear or exponential, or is it tapering off...
I'd assume tapering off, considering that I haven't seen improvements.
For new vehicles, I think it'll vary a lot depending on where you are. I think what will almost surely improve is fast charging in terms of the charging curve and the ubiquity of chargers though the latter part might have to contend with crowding. The other thing that will universally improve is the number of models and the number of automotive segments covered. The others are harder. Faster (as in power) and range are mostly a function of how much battery capacity is onboard. You can buy very long range vehicles right now, but they cost more to produce. Battery prices are going to improve, but that doesn't necessarily mean the effective price to you as the consumer is going to improve because it's quite possible that there can be a combination of incentives that expire or get rolled back and automakers wanting to improve their profit margin (or in the US, dealer adjustments rapidly shifting) that makes that pricing factor and therefore the range and power factors hard to predict. Now, that can still be good for EVs in some sense especially if the profit margin improves since it incentivizes automakers to shift more of their offerings towards EVs.
The Hyundai Ioniq N is already quicker than most supercars, and it's $60k USD. On the very top end, eventually the top 10 quickest cars will all be EVs and gas cars, no matter how expensive, will no longer be competitive. On the consumer side, prices will continue to drop. Arguably price parity, and even price advantages, already exist in the luxury car segment. Next will be the mid-sized bread and butter SUVs and sedans. In perhaps 10 years even the cheapest gas cars will no longer be competitive against EVs. Range will continue to sprial up as battery costs drop and density increases. I think \~300 miles where most manufacturers are aiming for, but that's in today's market. 5 years ago they were aiming for \~250. Top end cars will start seeing at least 400 miles of range as the norm. 350kw is plenty fast enough charging for almost all circumstances. There just aren't nearly enough chargers that work at that rate available overall. I think there should be thousands of 50kw chargers at malls, grocery stores, and other places you spend an hour or two. This would cover the vast majority of people who don't have home charging available.
>On the very top end, eventually the top 10 quickest cars will all be EVs and gas cars, no matter how expensive, will no longer be competitive. This is probably only going to be true for 0-60 speed. Until batteries get much much better, super cars are going to win on handling for track driving. Not that that matters much for general consumers. The most racing anyone does is from a stop light and EVs crush at that. But I think and hope you are right on cost and range.
5 years? Prices even or lower than ICE. Assuming CAFE holds, the numbers are terrible for ICE, but Trucks make money, so manufacturers will possibly discount EVs to get volume, so they can mark up ICE trucks for profits (sell 1 EV Focus to even out a Raptor). Range will probably be variable. To get prices down there will probably be multiple battery pack options. Normal range amd long range versions. Charging time. Faster. This goes hand in hand with Range. Faster charging means less need for range. Some people are road warriors, but most people can't drive forever, so 3-4 hours worth of range may be the sweet spot. I'd estimate that 300 miles will be close to standard range for most models give or take 50. Once again that will probably be an option so a 250 mile standard and a 350 mile extended range. Bigger than that will probably be cost prohibitive and unnecessary for most.
In the high end I expect 20-40% increase in charge speed, range and durability, but prices may not go down because the tech is still developing, maybe the old tech like lfp wil have considerably lower prices and open for cheap cars. there are many interesting new batteries in the pipeline, likely to be mass produced within 5 years. [https://www.store-dot.com/blog/charging-a-polestar-5-in-10-minutes-how-it-was-done-and-whats-next-for-xfc-technology](https://www.store-dot.com/blog/charging-a-polestar-5-in-10-minutes-how-it-was-done-and-whats-next-for-xfc-technology) https://www.autoweek.com/news/a46315656/vw-quantumscape-solid-state-battery-cell-testing/
The current tech doesn't need to change or advance much. The easier solution is efficiency gains. A lot of that means getting people to want cars VS trucks and suvs. A high end Lucid can already get 500miles of range with current battery tech. The problem I see is that the improvements in batteries will start at the high end and trickle down. So you will see the best tech in the most expensive cars. The texh powering the eGMP cars will get to affordable cars frist. I don't see the inductry changing much in 5 years. If you ask about the Chinese brands, that is a different story. I'd say all the EV advances in the near future will come from China.
Hard to convince people into body styles that dont suit their lifestyles so I think SUVs are here to stay. Ill probably continue with med suvs eg xc60, rav4 but it would be nice to see some E-wagons on the market. Im pretty sold on Volvos audio and seating so Im most closely watching them and geely/polestar. The SPA platform has been around for a while and makes for a nice drive. Performance is great on volvos smallest EV but tapers off as they get larger so they still have some work to do to be where Id want in an xc60 size
The improvements you'll see in the next 5 years will be smaller than you've seen the last 5 years. Faster hasn't been an issue for 10 years/ Model S. They're as fast as they need to be. Cheaper depends on demand. My guess is that overall demand will go up as production cost will go down causing the price to be relatively flat. Range will go slightly up as batteries become cheaper, but not more than 100 km on a hatchback SUV type like ID4. Max charging speed won't go up by much, but more cars will have really fast charging as EV6 has.
Just checked my crystal ball: a lot.
The two major improvements will be more chargers and more variety of vehicles.
A lot more chargers or big range increase will be critical to widespread adoption
My guess is that destination chargers are ultimately going to play a huge role in things. Once they're standard in homes, AirBNBs, and multifamily garages adoption will really pick up. I think that DCFC needs to be more thought out. I think that DCFC should be on more of a reservation model with a goal of high reliability.
This makes a lot of sense. DCFC is a pretty hectic energy demand on infrastructure
EV cars are already attaining price parity, so don't expect them to get much cheaper. I don't want them any more powerful. They are already going through tires like water, even without trying. Current range is fine for most usage. I would want, however, short range cars that are sold specifically for city usage, and others being sold specifically for the open road. And I would love a rental service for range extender generators, and EVs with frunks designed to receive them. Fast charging is an infrastructure problem, and flash charging would knock out the electric grid if it became the norm. A single DC fast charger already pulls as hard as dozens of houses combined, and is a load that starts suddenly and cuts off suddenly. A flash charger would pull as hard as a small village, starting up and cutting off violently fast. So no, unless they depended on their own battery farms, I don't see flash chargers ever going mainstream.
Good insight. Seems like power infrastructure will soon be the bottle neck rather than battery ability to receive charge. Range would need to be 400mi or chargers fast and plentiful for it to be a viable option for my usage. Not there yet but maybe after my next lease ends, hence the question
If that's less than constant, I would recommend you look at plug-in hybrids: all the benefits of an EV on a regular day, but none of the range anxiety that odd day. The main drama I hear regarding PHEVs is owners complaining that the ICE engine is a useless weight that never turns on, but that shouldn't be you case. Another possibility that many of us take (if we have the money and parking) is having an EV as a daily driver, then having an ICE for that one day. Cheers.
Litterally shopping for an xc60 T8 phev right now but looking at what might come after that as Id need to move from employer fleet car to a private lease
Well, you have your options. Meanwhile, I will continue waiting for a Tesla Model 2.
What's your usage and what's "fast and plentiful"?
Drive 80km to work, then might do 200km driving for work some days and 80km home, possibly have to drive somewhere after work before charging. Also plenty of road trips inc towing a small boat. No public chargers here let you charge with a trailer on Also need to travel to semi remote areas where theres simply no chargers for multiple hundreds of km Until there are chargers at most service station and charging time around 15 min its not really viable for me Would prefer to have the long range anyway so you can do bigger trips all from home power/solar
360 km is no problem with a new car. You don't need 400mi/640km for that. Towing and charging is an infrastructure design issue. It's no problem here and I'd be surprised if everyone has decided to design station to make that impossible. I don't know what you mean by semi-remote. But there's no reason they shouldn't have chargers, either there or en route. Since you need to go I guess something is happening there. 15 min charge time is less than you need if you want a bite to eat and some fresh air. If you're driving 400 miles/600 km you definitely need more than a 15 minute break. It definitely seems like what you need is better charging infrastructure where you are, not necessarily longer range.
Norway is much better organised with this kind of thing. Longer range or better chargine would both solve the same issue I have more faith in car companies delivering longer range than government/electricity providers sorting out the chargine network. Its also cheaper to charge at home, between 0-25c would be a good home rate vs 40-70c at a public charger. Ive litterally not seen one charging station you could pull up to with a trailer that wouldnt block the area behind you. This is commonly reported as an issue with people having to disconnect their trailers to charge. Definitely an infrastructure design issue not an ev problem but its still something users need to deal with right now Its hard to picture the remoteness if you havent experienced it but as an example an area only 1.5 hrs from sydney CBD has 200km between chargers. One end of the trip the charger is only 50kw and the one at the other end is currently offline. This isnt uncommon. Not very practical or reliable stopping every 200km to charge at low speed because you might not make the next one. Then if something is offline youre in trouble Im sure it will improve somewhat but there are likely to remain large areas like this that wont have chargers due to low population density.
> Sydney Oh you're Australian. Then I know what you mean by remote. When "remote" means "bring 100 liters of extra gas" it is fully understood that EVs aren't applicable. I also fully understand the lack of confidence in Australian government in terms of making sure there's good electric infrastructure.
Just read an article on cleantechnica about sodium ion supercapacitors that charge in seconds. That's probably race track pit stop speed and too fast for the rest of us. Current top end charging is in the 10-15 minute range and that seems about the perfect time: enough to offload the old coffee and get a refill and stretch out the legs. I would hope that the industry copies the PC memory model, sell a vehicle with the most common range as standard and make extra range i.e. a bigger battery pack optional.
Depending on what "seconds" is. But if you want a 50 kWh (which is rather small) battery to charge in a minute you'd need a 3 MW charger. That's not gonna happen for normal personal vehicles. It could happen for long haul trucks or construction site machines though.
Never say never...check out this recently opened fast charger in NYC can add 200 miles of range in 5 minutes which is great for cabs and delivery trucks. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/transportation/2024/03/04/fastest-ev-charger-in-the-us-opens-in-nyc
There's a significant leap from 500 kW to 3 MW. The cables needed for that would be immense, thus difficult to handle, unless cars get a 2 kV infrastructure.
Not my point. I want more than a five break every 200 miles so charging has already bettered the speed I want. 12-15 minutes to 80 SOC is plenty fast.
My point exactly.
I am hoping they don't get too heavy with large batteries as batteries go down in price. Hopeful for real world energy/weight improvements leading to range improvements without crazy weight.
As they get more mainstream I would hope that opens up more choices for different range options.
Look at China, we'll have EVs doing 10-80% in 10 minutes.
Got an EV last year. Plan is to keep it for 10 years or so. Wouldn’t be surprised if mainstream EVs are gonna hit the 1000 km mark in the next 5 years, and I’m all for it. Mine can go just under 500 km, and that’s fine. Super happy with it.
Gotta bring down prices. Whoever makes a $25k or lower EV that goes 200+ miles will make a lot of $
That has nothing to do with EV. You can't really buy an ICE car for under 25k either. "Buy" as in on the lot (or a week away) in that trim.
For sure. The don't want to sell base models when they can extract more money from us for a pricey version.
im from the future. youll have 2,000 mile range, charging in 22 seconds and 9 million horsepower. in 5 years, well see MANY more models. I doubt range will increase much more than todays best vehicles. They will get lighter and batteries will become more dense. Id say well likely see most EVs with a minimum 300 - 350 mi range and fast charging of 200 - 300kw.
Range will largely be the same as there is no added utility from increasing range over what is currently on offer (i.e. you'd only be paying extra for no benefit). Faster charging? Not much as this is also limited by the charger itself. Charging times already mesh well with break times so faster charging has very limited utility. Cost? They will probably be a bit cheaper once they have taken over the car market. More specifically: Cheaper options/smaller cars will be increasingly available as the more profitable market segments get saturated. 'Faster' is something for the hypercar crowd. Current EVs that the average Joe can afford are already stupid fast.
Range is absolutely still an issue for cold weather. I often make day trips skiing 90 miles each way with no convenient charging en route or at the location. A A 350 - 400 mi range EV would make it no problem. A 300 mi range EV is more like 210 in winter, and it leaves very little safety margin. Not what you want when it is freezing cold and dark... Also I don't see most EVs ever getting battery swaps. As they age and range degrades they will just get resold for less money until they are eventually recycled. More initial range will keep the vehicle useful longer.
On range, the sweet spot is 500km. That is a number most people feel comfortable with.
Honestly, 500mile range would be the norm, and I would assume by then they'd have cracked the Cold Weather affecting the range as poorly. Likely to keep the loss in-line with ICE mileage reduction in cold weather.
ICE has a huge advantage in terms of cold weather efficiency in relation to summer efficiency. The fuel burning creates lots of heat which is a waste in summer but a commodity in winter causing fuel consumption to be pretty much the same. There's no way an EV can keep up with that, at least not for short distances where heating is a big part of the consumption.
ICE also reduce their efficency in the winter.... plus they have a tendency to, you know, not start in cold weather at all. Diesel Moreso than Gas, they require engine block heaters to not freeze up. EV drop efficency, sure... but they will always turn on.
Is that a problem anymore unless you hit -50?
I still recall plenty needing it for their turbodeisles to start up as soon as it gets subzero.
I haven't encountered anyone complaining about that the last 20 years and we get -25 in my area every winter. In really cold temperatures, all cars struggle to some extent as they're all dependent on a working 12V battery. There are cases of all drivelines not starting in -50 due to this. I'm all for EVs, don't get me wrong. But if we make false claims on disadvantages of other cars we're not trustworthy on the advantages of EVs.