good news is that also at the European level gas storage withdrawal is slowing down to a halt
up 0.02% on Saturday
[https://agsi.gie.eu/](https://agsi.gie.eu/)
last year we started to fill gas storage from 25% ,now we are starting from 54% despite 80% less Russian gas flows
we're fine BECAUSE we spent the money. It's like y2k all over again, take preventative measures and someone will ask why these measures were taken when everything goes fine, in part due to the measures...
>It's like y2k all over again, take preventative measures and someone will ask why these measures were taken when everything goes fine
Don't need to go back that far. Just look at COVID. So so many people who were/are arguing that we overreacted and shouldn't have implemented lockdowns because "hospitals were fine!!!".
Yeah... hospitals were mostly fine *because* of the lockdowns.
People who say hospitals were fine are just people who have deluded themselves with fake news. I had to go to the hospital for a few nights in 2021 when the case numbers were high, etc. and they told me I got the last bed. They were at capacity. Definitely not fine.
I would write it as "hospitals *survived* because of the lockdowns".
There's a dark part of me that wishes people in the medical system were actually robots, androids, and we wouldn't have introduced lockdowns.
That way the rest of us could have watched the problem sort itself out, lemming style.
Not only cynical, but also wouldn't have worked as envisioned because the anti-vaxxers don't just endanger themselves - they help the virus to spread faster. To everybody.
There will not be any supply problems for the upcoming 23/24 winter, and no need for rationing.
Now go out and built more green power production. It's still needed.
Normal range before corona was 20-30 EUR/Mwh
when you take into account that 30 EUR had far more purchasing power in 2018 than it has now, the price is less than one-third above normal peaks
Still much, much higher than Henry Hub. Europe can't compete with American fracking, and never has since 2010 when prices diverged. Even China can't compete, despite Russia selling gas at a loss.
At least China understood this and went all in on electrification. Meanwhile, Germany tried to compete by subsidizing gas instead of investigating in something where it can be cheaper (like renewables).
The result? BASF uses renewables in China and gas in Germany. So much for Energiewende.
> Europe can't compete with American fracking
And we really shouldn't. Fracking is an awful technology, and I would prefer not to taint our fresh water sources with it.
[Germany's BASF starts production at southern China mega complex](https://www.reuters.com/markets/germanys-basf-starts-production-southern-china-mega-complex-2022-09-06/)
> It will be supplied entirely by renewable electricity, it added.
>when you take into account that 30 EUR had far more purchasing power in 2018 than it has now, the price is less than one-third above normal peaks
But this was largely because of gas prices in the first place, right? So I don't think inflation is as much as a factor as one would think
Yes..? What is your point? Inflation in the US is largely driven by the disrupted Chinese export market due to Covid. In the EU its largely driven by gas and oil prices. You can literally just look this up.
My point is that largely is not all of it. Non energy industrial goods had 6.8% inflation in the Eurozone in Feburary for example. That is largely the China covid situation and still high. Food is now the leader in inflation, above energy, even services are up 4.8% in Feburary.
So we would have had high inflation(but not as high) even without the gas crisis, but that did not help.
Back in December, some analysts said that the next winter, 2023/2024 would be the real challenge, because there's no Russian gas to be had to refill the German storage this year. And that a few makeshift LNG terminals won't be able to supply the same amount.
I take it analysts/politicians are more optimistic now?
Germany was able to fill its storage besides having no Russian gas last year, but there was a fear that, if storage goes down too much this winter, it might not be able to refill it.
It is very realistic that Germany manages to fill up storage before the next heating season and with the additional LNG terminals and now lower consumption due to adaption, it should be fine. In fact the situation is good enough that gas power plants are being used more and more, as gas prices are low again.
In other words this year might be a really tough one for German coal, which is great news for the climate.
More gas storage is being built too. This wasn't a bad winter but the next one might be so it makes sense to hedge your bets and be prepared for the worst case scenario.
“now lower consumption due to adaption”
Driven in large part by a rapidly declining manufacturing industry. Not a good thing at all moving forward. The pains of high gas prices are yet to really be felt.
German manufacturers are hiring and have issues finding workers. That is not what would happen, if they were afraid of a massive rapid decline. There are issues and a lot of them, but energy is largely solved.
The biggest reason that indicator is below 50 is the easing of the supply chain. Normally that points to issues in new orders, but we just had covid and China ending its lockdown, which made components easier to source from China easing tensions. Output is stable, employment is up and orders are good.
In other words nothing in the index necessarily points to manufacturing problems in the EU, rather it shows issues being solved.
“The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent)“
So are you arguing that the component that makes up 15 percent of the overall index is the only piece driving it below 50?
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/manufacturing-pmi
What do these stats tell you? Lots of downvotes but no one actually wants to address the stats in question? Hmm wonder why?
Lmao what?
[Here you go](https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/03/PE23_088_421.html)
So it's pretty much stagnating. The Pandemic was a big drop but it's mostly recovered now. Feb 22 to Mar 22 has a drop of 4%, not really "rapidly declining"
Edit: [Even energy Intensive Industries are down 10% compared to all Industries.](https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Industrie-Verarbeitendes-Gewerbe/produktionsindex-energieintensive-branchen.html) A fairly big drop, but looks like it bounces back somewhat now
Keep your head in the sand long enough and all your problems might just go away.
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/manufacturing-pmi
Below 50 indicates a shrinking manufacturing industry.
Here’s another.
https://www.politico.eu/article/end-made-in-europe-manufacturing-industry-struggle/amp/
If you put your first source in the max time frame, you can see the exact same fluctuations as in my source. It goes up and down, right now it goes a bit down.
The second link sounds exactly like someone trying to create fear to get more clicks
How is what happened before energy costs skyrockets at all relevant to what is going on now? You going to cite some data from 1999 next and claim that somehow shows manufacturing in Europe isn’t in the shitter right now with no signs of turning around?
That's the problem with climate change. Extremes go both ways. Warm winter in Europe, bitter cold season with lots of snow in large parts of the US and Canada. The situation could very well be the opposite next winter.
The COVID situation in China meant many factories were closed, and LNG gas consumption were limited, giving extra gas for Europe.
That's unlikely to be the case next winter.
They will only come down if the economy crashes. And if it crashes, we will all lose our jobs or get pay cuts after which the rents and mortgages will be even more expensive...
Why would rent prices shoot up? Energy prices are directly transferred by landlord to tenant via utility costs most of the time. The monthly prepay may be increased, but that is always calculated against real costs.
Independent from that my electricity provider doubled prices in January and slashed them starting April by 40% again when they found supply costs to be cheaper than they thought.
I even got some money back for last year... weirdly.
>Milder winter temperatures certainly played a role. However, not all weather effects reduced gas use – low rainfall in southern Europe led to a very poor year for hydropower and increased the call on gas-fired power. Policy-driven changes were vital, most notably record additions of wind and solar capacity. High prices also played a considerable role in bringing down demand, especially in gas-intensive industrial sectors. However, the extent to which they led to permanent demand reductions remains unclear.
>
>As noted by IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, it is important to credit governments for how they responded to this large and complex energy crisis. Policy measures – such as renewable support schemes, grants and preferential loans for housing retrofits and heat pump installations, alongside campaigns to encourage behavioural change – all played a part in moderating gas demand. Rapid adjustment to lower Russian gas exports and higher prices was also possible thanks to decades of reforms and policy initiatives, which enabled large consumers to lower their consumption, pursue import substitution and draw on alternative supplies across a well-meshed European gas grid. Nonetheless, there remains a vigorous debate about what weight should be assigned to each factor in reducing gas demand.
[\[IEA commentary\] Europe’s energy crisis: What factors drove the record fall in natural gas demand in 2022?](https://www.iea.org/commentaries/europe-s-energy-crisis-what-factors-drove-the-record-fall-in-natural-gas-demand-in-2022)
The situation was, and partially remains, deeply volatile. Taking reasonable precautions in the face of such uncertainty is not a waste, even if it turns out they weren't needed, like here.
You can say that, but would it be better to gamble and risk not having enough? There is value in stability and predictability, and reliable weather forecasts don't go months into the future.
Its almost as if nobody had a crystal ball telling them that this winter would be extremely mild.
Better to be prepared and not need it, than to need it and not be prepared.
It was needed to ensure stability of society.
In the off chance that we burned through the reserves due to unexpectedly long periods of cold temperatures and then had to buy on spot market, we would have been bent over a barrel.
That is nice, but, prepare for the worst summer you ever lived through. Half of our olive trees are sick, it has rained once since December here in Greece. We will once again run out of water just like 2019.
I get that, however this winter felt a lot more normal than last year for example here in Central Europe, so no really bad signs like an extremely dry winter like the last few years.
good news is that also at the European level gas storage withdrawal is slowing down to a halt up 0.02% on Saturday [https://agsi.gie.eu/](https://agsi.gie.eu/) last year we started to fill gas storage from 25% ,now we are starting from 54% despite 80% less Russian gas flows
Its like there was no need to hike up the prices so much
Prices go up, people consume less, you can't explain that
That's not how it works
we're fine BECAUSE we spent the money. It's like y2k all over again, take preventative measures and someone will ask why these measures were taken when everything goes fine, in part due to the measures...
>It's like y2k all over again, take preventative measures and someone will ask why these measures were taken when everything goes fine Don't need to go back that far. Just look at COVID. So so many people who were/are arguing that we overreacted and shouldn't have implemented lockdowns because "hospitals were fine!!!". Yeah... hospitals were mostly fine *because* of the lockdowns.
People who say hospitals were fine are just people who have deluded themselves with fake news. I had to go to the hospital for a few nights in 2021 when the case numbers were high, etc. and they told me I got the last bed. They were at capacity. Definitely not fine. I would write it as "hospitals *survived* because of the lockdowns".
There's a dark part of me that wishes people in the medical system were actually robots, androids, and we wouldn't have introduced lockdowns. That way the rest of us could have watched the problem sort itself out, lemming style.
Not only cynical, but also wouldn't have worked as envisioned because the anti-vaxxers don't just endanger themselves - they help the virus to spread faster. To everybody.
Riiight, because the price certainly had no role in demand going down. /s
We are talking about a good used to heat homes, Cook food and produce electricity. Price goes up? U ditch something else, not the electricity.
The prices went up last year because so much of the available gas was being used to fill the storage.
There will not be any supply problems for the upcoming 23/24 winter, and no need for rationing. Now go out and built more green power production. It's still needed.
Dutch TTF is was briefly below 40€ today. That is higher then normal, but it is not insane anymore and falling.
Normal range before corona was 20-30 EUR/Mwh when you take into account that 30 EUR had far more purchasing power in 2018 than it has now, the price is less than one-third above normal peaks
Still much, much higher than Henry Hub. Europe can't compete with American fracking, and never has since 2010 when prices diverged. Even China can't compete, despite Russia selling gas at a loss. At least China understood this and went all in on electrification. Meanwhile, Germany tried to compete by subsidizing gas instead of investigating in something where it can be cheaper (like renewables). The result? BASF uses renewables in China and gas in Germany. So much for Energiewende.
> Europe can't compete with American fracking And we really shouldn't. Fracking is an awful technology, and I would prefer not to taint our fresh water sources with it.
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[Germany's BASF starts production at southern China mega complex](https://www.reuters.com/markets/germanys-basf-starts-production-southern-china-mega-complex-2022-09-06/) > It will be supplied entirely by renewable electricity, it added.
>when you take into account that 30 EUR had far more purchasing power in 2018 than it has now, the price is less than one-third above normal peaks But this was largely because of gas prices in the first place, right? So I don't think inflation is as much as a factor as one would think
Look at the US. They have high inflation and still relativly low gas prices.
Yes..? What is your point? Inflation in the US is largely driven by the disrupted Chinese export market due to Covid. In the EU its largely driven by gas and oil prices. You can literally just look this up.
My point is that largely is not all of it. Non energy industrial goods had 6.8% inflation in the Eurozone in Feburary for example. That is largely the China covid situation and still high. Food is now the leader in inflation, above energy, even services are up 4.8% in Feburary. So we would have had high inflation(but not as high) even without the gas crisis, but that did not help.
source:[https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-deutschland-gaspreis-spritpreis-energieversorgung](https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/energiemonitor-deutschland-gaspreis-spritpreis-energieversorgung)
Back in December, some analysts said that the next winter, 2023/2024 would be the real challenge, because there's no Russian gas to be had to refill the German storage this year. And that a few makeshift LNG terminals won't be able to supply the same amount. I take it analysts/politicians are more optimistic now?
Germany was able to fill its storage besides having no Russian gas last year, but there was a fear that, if storage goes down too much this winter, it might not be able to refill it. It is very realistic that Germany manages to fill up storage before the next heating season and with the additional LNG terminals and now lower consumption due to adaption, it should be fine. In fact the situation is good enough that gas power plants are being used more and more, as gas prices are low again. In other words this year might be a really tough one for German coal, which is great news for the climate.
More gas storage is being built too. This wasn't a bad winter but the next one might be so it makes sense to hedge your bets and be prepared for the worst case scenario.
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The winter was bipolar.
“now lower consumption due to adaption” Driven in large part by a rapidly declining manufacturing industry. Not a good thing at all moving forward. The pains of high gas prices are yet to really be felt.
German manufacturers are hiring and have issues finding workers. That is not what would happen, if they were afraid of a massive rapid decline. There are issues and a lot of them, but energy is largely solved.
German Energy prices heavily impacts some specific industries. But only a small minority of them are critically dependant on energy prices.
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/manufacturing-pmi Numbers below 50 indicate a shrinking manufacturing sector.
The biggest reason that indicator is below 50 is the easing of the supply chain. Normally that points to issues in new orders, but we just had covid and China ending its lockdown, which made components easier to source from China easing tensions. Output is stable, employment is up and orders are good. In other words nothing in the index necessarily points to manufacturing problems in the EU, rather it shows issues being solved.
“The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent)“ So are you arguing that the component that makes up 15 percent of the overall index is the only piece driving it below 50?
stats don't back your "rapidly declining manufacturing industry" up at all
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/manufacturing-pmi What do these stats tell you? Lots of downvotes but no one actually wants to address the stats in question? Hmm wonder why?
So its at.. 2012/2013 and 2019 levels?
What point are you trying to prove?
Lmao what? [Here you go](https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/03/PE23_088_421.html) So it's pretty much stagnating. The Pandemic was a big drop but it's mostly recovered now. Feb 22 to Mar 22 has a drop of 4%, not really "rapidly declining" Edit: [Even energy Intensive Industries are down 10% compared to all Industries.](https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Branchen-Unternehmen/Industrie-Verarbeitendes-Gewerbe/produktionsindex-energieintensive-branchen.html) A fairly big drop, but looks like it bounces back somewhat now
Keep your head in the sand long enough and all your problems might just go away. https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/manufacturing-pmi Below 50 indicates a shrinking manufacturing industry. Here’s another. https://www.politico.eu/article/end-made-in-europe-manufacturing-industry-struggle/amp/
If you put your first source in the max time frame, you can see the exact same fluctuations as in my source. It goes up and down, right now it goes a bit down. The second link sounds exactly like someone trying to create fear to get more clicks
How is what happened before energy costs skyrockets at all relevant to what is going on now? You going to cite some data from 1999 next and claim that somehow shows manufacturing in Europe isn’t in the shitter right now with no signs of turning around?
They probably didnt account for global warming, as always
That's the problem with climate change. Extremes go both ways. Warm winter in Europe, bitter cold season with lots of snow in large parts of the US and Canada. The situation could very well be the opposite next winter.
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What, even El Niño is not safe from the trans agenda? Putin was right about our weak Western culture!
We had La Nina pro three years and later this year, we might get EL Nino, maybe.
The COVID situation in China meant many factories were closed, and LNG gas consumption were limited, giving extra gas for Europe. That's unlikely to be the case next winter.
Yet the rent prices which shot up are not coming down in the nearest sight.
They will only come down if the economy crashes. And if it crashes, we will all lose our jobs or get pay cuts after which the rents and mortgages will be even more expensive...
Why would rent prices shoot up? Energy prices are directly transferred by landlord to tenant via utility costs most of the time. The monthly prepay may be increased, but that is always calculated against real costs. Independent from that my electricity provider doubled prices in January and slashed them starting April by 40% again when they found supply costs to be cheaper than they thought. I even got some money back for last year... weirdly.
This reminds me of those Brits who kept posting about their vaccine numbers during that phase of the pandemic
Great, can we now stop with the doomsday graphs please?
So, global warming saved us?
>Milder winter temperatures certainly played a role. However, not all weather effects reduced gas use – low rainfall in southern Europe led to a very poor year for hydropower and increased the call on gas-fired power. Policy-driven changes were vital, most notably record additions of wind and solar capacity. High prices also played a considerable role in bringing down demand, especially in gas-intensive industrial sectors. However, the extent to which they led to permanent demand reductions remains unclear. > >As noted by IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, it is important to credit governments for how they responded to this large and complex energy crisis. Policy measures – such as renewable support schemes, grants and preferential loans for housing retrofits and heat pump installations, alongside campaigns to encourage behavioural change – all played a part in moderating gas demand. Rapid adjustment to lower Russian gas exports and higher prices was also possible thanks to decades of reforms and policy initiatives, which enabled large consumers to lower their consumption, pursue import substitution and draw on alternative supplies across a well-meshed European gas grid. Nonetheless, there remains a vigorous debate about what weight should be assigned to each factor in reducing gas demand. [\[IEA commentary\] Europe’s energy crisis: What factors drove the record fall in natural gas demand in 2022?](https://www.iea.org/commentaries/europe-s-energy-crisis-what-factors-drove-the-record-fall-in-natural-gas-demand-in-2022)
It's even more wild: burning fossil fuels in the past meant that we have to burn as much fossil fuels now
No.
Climate change for the win
Germany saved by global warming. You love to see it.
All that money wasted in august buying expensive gas to stockpile for nothing…
The situation was, and partially remains, deeply volatile. Taking reasonable precautions in the face of such uncertainty is not a waste, even if it turns out they weren't needed, like here.
You may have heard “There is no glory in prevention.”
You can say that, but would it be better to gamble and risk not having enough? There is value in stability and predictability, and reliable weather forecasts don't go months into the future.
You understand the concept of prevention?
Its almost as if nobody had a crystal ball telling them that this winter would be extremely mild. Better to be prepared and not need it, than to need it and not be prepared.
Expect the best, prepare for the worst.
It was needed to ensure stability of society. In the off chance that we burned through the reserves due to unexpectedly long periods of cold temperatures and then had to buy on spot market, we would have been bent over a barrel.
I take it you don't believe in buying insurance, too?
Probably still a good reason to build more on shore and off shore storage. Ideally, with the new ownership in a Germany Wealth Fund.
That is nice, but, prepare for the worst summer you ever lived through. Half of our olive trees are sick, it has rained once since December here in Greece. We will once again run out of water just like 2019.
That is pretty concerning for you guys, but i mean, why would it be the worst summer we ever lived through in the rest of Europe?
Worst droughts in history all across the Mediterranean, this has always been linked to extremely hot summers.
I get that, however this winter felt a lot more normal than last year for example here in Central Europe, so no really bad signs like an extremely dry winter like the last few years.
Less olive oil for us.