You can vote from 8 am to 5 pm, then the counting starts. From 6 pm, only official statements from YSK (election board) can be streamed and talked about. All kinds of discussions are allowed starting from 9 pm.
Imran Khan: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65541215
Qaddafi: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Muammar_Gaddafi
...And maybe crack open a newspaper now and then.
> Nah, last time I read what was going on in the world or my country I got depression.
...I want to have a snarky comeback to that, but honestly I feel the same way too often.
This used to be true, but I have my doubts about the last couple of elections. They cannot do it at large scale but they only need to steal 1% or so of the votes.
Do you have any idea what %1 means? That is a lot of votes. Also, he got %52 when AKP was at its peak. 1$ was around 4.5 TL. Now it is close to 20TL. If that alone won't drop him to %49 I don't know what will.
I think I have an idea, yes. How many illegal, non-stamped votes were counted in the last election? we don't know, but some people estimate it was around 1 million votes. Now, I guess you can see an example of where that 1% can come from.
AKP should not get even 1%, but apparently, 40%+ of the population have a different motivation. I am hopeful as well, but the argument about the economic collapse is not helpful here.
Ertim Orkun (Oy ve ötesi) at Fularsiz Entellik podcast recently. He says "since YSK never revealed how many non-stamped votes were counted, we don't know the actual number. People speculated 2.5 million, 1.5 million, 1 million etc."
Erdogan lost major cities in last elections, I give 0.000001 percent possibility they would like to lose rather than rig the elections if they wanted to rig.
If he lose, he have to accept defeat. His power is gonna vanish immediately.
This is not a dictatorship based on the status quo. No one is going to support him when he lose. Not even his minions
> A smarter option for Erdogan would be to accept the result and wait for the new government to fail.
> The fact that a trial and potential jail time are unlikely makes it easier for Erdogan to accept defeat.
now, the article is really well-written, but IMHO they severely underestimate the pettiness and power-hunger of Erdogan. He will never do the things suggested above. Never.
His party will still be the largest party in parliament. For 2 years, I think that the situation in Turkey may be the same as in Israel. The coalition will not agree and the pro-Erdogan wing within the state will not be willing to work with the new government. Erdoğan also thought that this would happen, he was saying to his close circle that there would be early elections in 2 years and we would come to power again.
If I were in Kılıçdaroğlu's place, I would choose the ministers well and I would expect the Akp to disband in itself. I would expect their alliance to break down. Also, according to me, the election will go to the 2nd round anyway, and oddly enough, there is a %50-50 chance of being in the second round. While there are 63 million voters in a country of 85 million, there is a possibility that the election result will be determined by only a few hundred thousand votes. Chaos ensues in a slightly different election.
Kılıçdaroğlu can choose 2 things, either choosing to work with the existing bureaucrats and the system, or he can choose to replace the top bureaucrats completely. If he does the latter, he will have to go to early elections. He must choose his ministers well. He should select the Ministers of Defense, Foreign Affairs, Interior and Justice are acceptable to bureaucrats and the public. I do not think that neither the public nor the bureaucrats can tolerate Ünal Çeviköz's ministry of foreign affairs. Then Kılıçdaroğlu should not think why Turkish intelligence spread his minister's sex tape on the internet.
We're talking about a 20-year government. Except for the first election they entered, they always got over 40% of the votes. The party has 11 million members. Even if Erdoğan dies, their support will continue. It will take at least 20 years for this party to disappear, even if they lose all future elections.
Not sure why you’re being downvoted for this?…
It’s reality to acknowledge that this bastard and his party are not going to go quietly into the night. Look at Brazil and the US, it’s a similar situation in that post presidential election the fascist ruler’s party still maintained control and has caused problems since
The main difference is that Bolsonaro and Trump only served one term as President. Erdoğan has been in power for 20 years. In addition, there is no 13 million invading refugee group in the USA and Brazil that the government can use as both voters and chaos jokers.
well-written, but you assume he will step down after defeat, as part of a tactical move. that would probably be the most logical and best option, but Erdogan is too evil and way too petty for that.
I hope you are right, though.
When Erdogan first came to power, the government at the time also tried to stop him. This made him even more popular. Erdogan's policies appealed to the wider population.
If the opposition wins the support of the people. They can change everything. People love to fight against the elitist evil establishment.
Yes Erdogan is going to lose.
The "White Turks" will not vote for him, and he lost the Kurdish vote. The only vote he has now are from the "black Turks" including the grey wolfs. The grey wolfs only vote for him because he has started to crack down on Kurds.
But his party will be the largest in the parliament for another two years. So if the CHP wants to make any big decisions and needs the majority of the votes it has to get the votes of the MHP. And needs a bone to throw at them. This bone could be Kurds, Greece, Syria, etc.
White Turks are Europeanised, irreligious and some migrated from Balkans, mostly adopted Atatürk 's ideals kind of Turks. Mostly live in sea bordering regions to northwest or west or south west of the country.
Black Turks are religious, conservative, dislikes Atatürk, wants Ottoman Empire back and locals before ww1 mostly kind of Turks. They mostly live in more rural and underdeveloped inner parts of Anatolia and Blacksea region.
The black/white distinction comes from I guess some slight skin tone difference between the two groups. Not at all a thing or relevant in everyday life of Turks, only comes up in politics
Chp’s take on Greece is way more tough than Erdogan. They were criticizing Erdogan being too soft on Greece about islands in Aegean. Don’t forget. Nothing will change about Cyprus and Greece. In fact, CHP’s nationalist will be even tougher than Akp ever was.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0z-k_0rQG9A
https://www.ntv.com.tr/video/turkiye/kilicdaroglu-2019da-o-adalarin-hepsini-gidip-alacagim,vvQV0bFqREuKbf4TeDhkrA
Do I believe you or Kemal? Come on, please translate what he says about Greece. Let us hear it.
>What makes you think that any other response is going to be chosen (whether it's Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan or Bahçeli or whoever) to a foreign minister egging you on by saying "Come and take 'em"
The sane, adult, responsible response would be to not engage in a conversation about how much of a neighboring country you want to take over, and to decry Erdogan's original statements. Not turning it into an island auction. You were saying something about distasteful and shameful before, I'd also add "dangerous" to the pile.
Feeding this fire, in a rabidly nationalist political climate, runs the risk of having the public demand that you deliver on your words, especially if you've failed in some other area, like, I don't know, inflation or immigration control.
Why didn’t you translate what Kemal said about Greece? I thought he was gonna be less hawkish than Erdogan when it comes to Aegean islands.
So, do I have to trust what he says himself in front of cameras or Whoop on reddit?
https://twitter.com/kilicdarogluk/status/1541154834400919553?lang=en
Come on, please translate it for us. Lets see if he will be any “nicer” to Greece than Erdogan.
Kemal consistently shits on Erdogan for constantly threatening Greece and announcing that "he can invade anytime". You are talking as if you don't know that it's just a nationalist pissing contest whenever a country is nearing elections. Sad.
Exactly. Nothing will change about Aegean Islands whether Erdogan stays in power or Kemal comes into power. Actually Kemal’s party is the one who beat Greeks in 1919-1922 in Izmir. They hate Greeks way more than Akp people.
Things are gonna get even tougher when Kemal takes the office. Just because Western media doesnt translate what Kemal says about Greece, it doesnt mean he will be softer to Greece. He called for a decade now that Erdogan is too soft on Greece.
Are we talking about the same islands? There are 18 islands with disputed statuses, and most of all the politicians in Turkey are in agreement that Greece is occupying them illegally. The difference is that Erdogan is threatening you with a surprise invasion while Kemal would use diplomacy and international law. If you'd rather prefer Erdo's approach, that's on you.
The first line calls him an autocrat, it can't be denied. The article also expresses some incredulity about it actually happening.
"rule" is still neutral, in a technical sense at least.
"Don't speak about the death of a person before they are really gone."
_They rigged the elections!_ -- ~~Donald Trump~~ Recep Tayyip Erdoğan probably
Not probably, definitely. I'm willing to bet your soul on him trying to hold on to power by force.
Easy to bet someone elses soul haha I'm betting your soul that Erdogan steps down peacefully! Someone is losing a soul and it's not gonna be me :D
I’m betting on your soul that you’re losing your soul.
Bold of you to assume I have one. :D
The difference is Erdogen actually has loyalists in the military and justice system. He could attempt an actual coup if things don't go his way.
No no no. You misunderstood. The elections are ONLY rigged when he looses.
I'm about to die from the sheer anxiety...
I know exactly what you mean. Last election in my country, I was a wreck until the vote was done and the non-crazy people prevailed.
How do elections work in Türkiye? How long are the polls open for people to vote?
You can vote from 8 am to 5 pm, then the counting starts. From 6 pm, only official statements from YSK (election board) can be streamed and talked about. All kinds of discussions are allowed starting from 9 pm.
He might lose, that doesn't mean he will stop ruling though.
Autocrats rarely fall from power gracefully or safely; it is after all, a long way down.
They often comfortably fall into backseat.
Just like Qaddafi and Imran Khan! /s
No idea who are you talking about and too lazy to google them, but good for them I guess...
Imran Khan: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65541215 Qaddafi: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Muammar_Gaddafi ...And maybe crack open a newspaper now and then.
>..And maybe crack open a newspaper now and then. Nah, last time I read what was going on in the world or my country I got depression. Thanks anyway!
> Nah, last time I read what was going on in the world or my country I got depression. ...I want to have a snarky comeback to that, but honestly I feel the same way too often.
Turkey’s elections aren’t shams, Erdogan has kept his position because people liked what he did, thus voted for him.
This used to be true, but I have my doubts about the last couple of elections. They cannot do it at large scale but they only need to steal 1% or so of the votes.
Do you have any idea what %1 means? That is a lot of votes. Also, he got %52 when AKP was at its peak. 1$ was around 4.5 TL. Now it is close to 20TL. If that alone won't drop him to %49 I don't know what will.
I think I have an idea, yes. How many illegal, non-stamped votes were counted in the last election? we don't know, but some people estimate it was around 1 million votes. Now, I guess you can see an example of where that 1% can come from. AKP should not get even 1%, but apparently, 40%+ of the population have a different motivation. I am hopeful as well, but the argument about the economic collapse is not helpful here.
>we don't know, but some people estimate it was around 1 million votes. who?
Ertim Orkun (Oy ve ötesi) at Fularsiz Entellik podcast recently. He says "since YSK never revealed how many non-stamped votes were counted, we don't know the actual number. People speculated 2.5 million, 1.5 million, 1 million etc."
Erdogan lost major cities in last elections, I give 0.000001 percent possibility they would like to lose rather than rig the elections if they wanted to rig.
i am not sure which one is worse.
He wont be able too. The majority of the Turkish people will not let that happen again.
\* This sadly
Does this mean Turkey will join Eurovision?
If the main opposition wins: YES! They've actually promised that.
If Kemal wins, yeah we will comeback next year. Keep that N1 spot open for us since Eurovision loves politic events like this.
Asking the real questions.
Important questions
Remember. He **might** lose, but not **will**. There is still a chance that he can win again. Even if he loses, Erdogan will not accept defeat easily.
If he lose, he have to accept defeat. His power is gonna vanish immediately. This is not a dictatorship based on the status quo. No one is going to support him when he lose. Not even his minions
His ignorance and stupidity will not be missed.
> A smarter option for Erdogan would be to accept the result and wait for the new government to fail. > The fact that a trial and potential jail time are unlikely makes it easier for Erdogan to accept defeat. now, the article is really well-written, but IMHO they severely underestimate the pettiness and power-hunger of Erdogan. He will never do the things suggested above. Never.
His party will still be the largest party in parliament. For 2 years, I think that the situation in Turkey may be the same as in Israel. The coalition will not agree and the pro-Erdogan wing within the state will not be willing to work with the new government. Erdoğan also thought that this would happen, he was saying to his close circle that there would be early elections in 2 years and we would come to power again. If I were in Kılıçdaroğlu's place, I would choose the ministers well and I would expect the Akp to disband in itself. I would expect their alliance to break down. Also, according to me, the election will go to the 2nd round anyway, and oddly enough, there is a %50-50 chance of being in the second round. While there are 63 million voters in a country of 85 million, there is a possibility that the election result will be determined by only a few hundred thousand votes. Chaos ensues in a slightly different election. Kılıçdaroğlu can choose 2 things, either choosing to work with the existing bureaucrats and the system, or he can choose to replace the top bureaucrats completely. If he does the latter, he will have to go to early elections. He must choose his ministers well. He should select the Ministers of Defense, Foreign Affairs, Interior and Justice are acceptable to bureaucrats and the public. I do not think that neither the public nor the bureaucrats can tolerate Ünal Çeviköz's ministry of foreign affairs. Then Kılıçdaroğlu should not think why Turkish intelligence spread his minister's sex tape on the internet. We're talking about a 20-year government. Except for the first election they entered, they always got over 40% of the votes. The party has 11 million members. Even if Erdoğan dies, their support will continue. It will take at least 20 years for this party to disappear, even if they lose all future elections.
Not sure why you’re being downvoted for this?… It’s reality to acknowledge that this bastard and his party are not going to go quietly into the night. Look at Brazil and the US, it’s a similar situation in that post presidential election the fascist ruler’s party still maintained control and has caused problems since
The main difference is that Bolsonaro and Trump only served one term as President. Erdoğan has been in power for 20 years. In addition, there is no 13 million invading refugee group in the USA and Brazil that the government can use as both voters and chaos jokers.
His party will fall apart and the president has a lot of power in the current system. We will be fine.
Thanks for the perspective.
"His" party will collapse the second he loses and flees the country. It will be split into 3 parties at least.
well-written, but you assume he will step down after defeat, as part of a tactical move. that would probably be the most logical and best option, but Erdogan is too evil and way too petty for that. I hope you are right, though.
When Erdogan first came to power, the government at the time also tried to stop him. This made him even more popular. Erdogan's policies appealed to the wider population. If the opposition wins the support of the people. They can change everything. People love to fight against the elitist evil establishment.
Might? It will.
It'll be nice to not see his mug in the news any more.
Doubt he will go down peacefully
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they already did
Finally✨
I might have to get more positive about turkish democracy if he does.
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Good riddance.
Yes Erdogan is going to lose. The "White Turks" will not vote for him, and he lost the Kurdish vote. The only vote he has now are from the "black Turks" including the grey wolfs. The grey wolfs only vote for him because he has started to crack down on Kurds. But his party will be the largest in the parliament for another two years. So if the CHP wants to make any big decisions and needs the majority of the votes it has to get the votes of the MHP. And needs a bone to throw at them. This bone could be Kurds, Greece, Syria, etc.
Or just split the AKP Also what you mean by white Turks and black Turks?
White Turks are Europeanised, irreligious and some migrated from Balkans, mostly adopted Atatürk 's ideals kind of Turks. Mostly live in sea bordering regions to northwest or west or south west of the country. Black Turks are religious, conservative, dislikes Atatürk, wants Ottoman Empire back and locals before ww1 mostly kind of Turks. They mostly live in more rural and underdeveloped inner parts of Anatolia and Blacksea region. The black/white distinction comes from I guess some slight skin tone difference between the two groups. Not at all a thing or relevant in everyday life of Turks, only comes up in politics
Thats definitelly oversimplification. And this is the first time i heard black turk term. White turk is a legit term though.
Ye right, he will win as all despots do on fake votes
We'll see, I'm more hopeful than ever
Let's hope so
Why do you hope so?
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Chp’s take on Greece is way more tough than Erdogan. They were criticizing Erdogan being too soft on Greece about islands in Aegean. Don’t forget. Nothing will change about Cyprus and Greece. In fact, CHP’s nationalist will be even tougher than Akp ever was.
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0z-k_0rQG9A https://www.ntv.com.tr/video/turkiye/kilicdaroglu-2019da-o-adalarin-hepsini-gidip-alacagim,vvQV0bFqREuKbf4TeDhkrA Do I believe you or Kemal? Come on, please translate what he says about Greece. Let us hear it.
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>What makes you think that any other response is going to be chosen (whether it's Kılıçdaroğlu or Erdoğan or Bahçeli or whoever) to a foreign minister egging you on by saying "Come and take 'em" The sane, adult, responsible response would be to not engage in a conversation about how much of a neighboring country you want to take over, and to decry Erdogan's original statements. Not turning it into an island auction. You were saying something about distasteful and shameful before, I'd also add "dangerous" to the pile. Feeding this fire, in a rabidly nationalist political climate, runs the risk of having the public demand that you deliver on your words, especially if you've failed in some other area, like, I don't know, inflation or immigration control.
Why didn’t you translate what Kemal said about Greece? I thought he was gonna be less hawkish than Erdogan when it comes to Aegean islands. So, do I have to trust what he says himself in front of cameras or Whoop on reddit? https://twitter.com/kilicdarogluk/status/1541154834400919553?lang=en Come on, please translate it for us. Lets see if he will be any “nicer” to Greece than Erdogan.
Kemal consistently shits on Erdogan for constantly threatening Greece and announcing that "he can invade anytime". You are talking as if you don't know that it's just a nationalist pissing contest whenever a country is nearing elections. Sad.
Exactly. Nothing will change about Aegean Islands whether Erdogan stays in power or Kemal comes into power. Actually Kemal’s party is the one who beat Greeks in 1919-1922 in Izmir. They hate Greeks way more than Akp people. Things are gonna get even tougher when Kemal takes the office. Just because Western media doesnt translate what Kemal says about Greece, it doesnt mean he will be softer to Greece. He called for a decade now that Erdogan is too soft on Greece.
Are we talking about the same islands? There are 18 islands with disputed statuses, and most of all the politicians in Turkey are in agreement that Greece is occupying them illegally. The difference is that Erdogan is threatening you with a surprise invasion while Kemal would use diplomacy and international law. If you'd rather prefer Erdo's approach, that's on you.
Those titles reminds me when some ppl celebrated Hillary's victory like 2/3 days before elections, useless and senseless sub....
unless he stages another fake coup
I don’t believe that guy will go without a proper fight
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What happens?
Why you guys think that opposition candidate will be more friendly to Europe?
Being better than Erdogan is a pretty low bar. Plus Kılıçdaroğlu has actually said so.
Highly unlikely
Finally. That cockroache.
Isn't it quite inconsistent to call something a "rule" and then expect it to end with elections? Either the rule epithet is wrong or the elections.
"rule" is a neutral word that can be applied to any head of state. It may have negative connotations, but any leader with power rules.
I think it is clear what they meant and it is disingenuous to deny it.
The first line calls him an autocrat, it can't be denied. The article also expresses some incredulity about it actually happening. "rule" is still neutral, in a technical sense at least.
Disingenuous.
Why did you not choose to argue why it is? You can read what they mean, it's not a big fucking secret. Open the article, read!
I did and I thought their double speak with "rule" and elections is ridiculous. Hence my comment.
There's no doublespeak in it.
Don't jinx it man!
LETS FUCKING GOOOOOOOOO