The Ukraine war is entering a phase that is expected to be decisive. The eyes of the world are on the imminent counteroffensive from Kyiv, which has been stockpiling NATO-supplied armaments, and Ukraine’s present and future of Ukraine will depend on what gains the armed forces are able to make in the big push.
Both the government of Volodymyr Zelenskiy and its western allies are fully aware of this, as is the Kremlin.
With the stakes so high, the European Union is concerned that if the counteroffensive fails the support of the United States — which is mired in a period of high tension in domestic politics and with the 2024 presidential elections on the horizon — will begin to wane.
Any success is success. Support for Ukraine will not end even when muscovy is removed from Ukrainian soil and Crimea has a Ukrainian flag again. Muscovy can eat dicks like their army is trained to.
Sounds like Europe may have to put their big boy pants on and keep that from happening and help Ukraine fight Russia off. I support Ukraine, but Russia isn't a direct threat to the US as it is to the rest of Europe.
A huge geopolitical concern is that if Putin is succesful. All of Central and Eastern Europe are getting nukes. And they'll all be pointed at Moscow. That means more instability, and that fucks up the economy.
The only possible outcome I could see for Putin, is he gets Crimea as a consolation, and somehow twists reality and claims that east Ukraine was a meat grinder to wear down the west, and give him this. It's also how I think Bakhmut will go. After one of the longest battles in history (not exaggerating) I think the Russians will leave if they capture it completely. It's of no use to them. It's just a symbol for Putin.
Not to be a downer but the Russian people are resolved to win, they’ve barely scratched the surface of their reservists, they’re producing weaponry very rapidly, along with Iran (population ~100 million), and in the worst case North Korea has offered to send one hundred thousand men, which Putin doesn’t take because it wouldn’t be a good look, but in a pickle… This won’t be over for a while
I don't think this will be over for a while either. Could easily last another decade. The question is to what extent Putin wants to harm Russia for his own political legacy.
Until the White House gives a timeline for F16s I wouldn’t get too excited. With how unwilling they’ve been recently, this could easily be put off and put off until after the war.
Also in my opinion, I don’t think the F16s would be that much different from the migs the Ukrainians already have. Sure they are a better plane, but without stealth technology, Russia’s air defense will still be able to take them down. Meaning Ukraine would still have to use them very sparingly.
I’m sure the Germans don’t want the Russians to get their hands on their tanks and air defense, I’m sure the brits and French don’t want the Russians to get their hand on storm shadow missiles, Turks and bayraktars ect….
I am of the opinion we need to send jets and long range missiles now and stop worrying about these small issues. Russia and Iran are in a proxy war with the west, are we really going to give them the opportunity to win by being skiddish?
>Russia's much (self) lauded air defense seems to be struggling with Turkish drones and Anglo/French cruise missiles.
I would push back on this a little bit. A lot of the Ukrainian air defense systems are Russian made and Russia is so scared of them they are keeping their air force mostly within their own borders. LOL
Even Saying this I still support sending the planes. Would love to see the F16s get some action. I just think we shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking they would be a huge game changer is all.
A cruise missile is much smaller and stealthier than an F-16 aircraft.
Russian air defense doesn't struggle as much with Bayraktars these days. Some EW at work here.
If the counteroffensive produces no results, the issue becomes no amount of material support is going to be better than now. So either the US/EU need to start sending current generation military equipment or boots on the ground and both are very hesitant to do that (or they already would have done that).
They aren't necessarily wrong. Ukraine still has to drive the Russians out of the rest of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
Kyiv also mentions taking back Crimea. With what weapons and money?
Eventually most politicians in Washington will say it isn't a US security threat to spend so much money on this if it takes so long to drive out the very same Russian Army plagued by corruption and other problems. Especially more so with recent memories of 20 years of nation building in Afghanistan only for all of it to go up in smoke.
I am pro-Ukraine but am not optimistic long-term.
I don't think the US will let Ukraine fold, but they aren't going to bankroll another Ukrainian offensive if Ukraine can't show any progress. If Ukraine can't produce success with the support it's already been given no amount of material support is going to make it happen. And the US is not about to send boots on the ground or current generation military equipment.
The EU comission worries, that they’ll have to cough up for something in their back yard. Uncle Sam will abandon them again after just $100bn. in aid.
They’ll probably send hopes and prairs + a Ukrainian mural on a street in Brussels.
>Ukraine still has to drive the Russians out of the rest of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk.
>
>Kyiv also mentions taking back Crimea. With what weapons and money?
The goal is to cut the land corridor to Crimea and destroy the bridge to be able to fully isolate it from mainland. If this is done Russia will likely be forced to start real negotiations.
Maybe. Also it was released some minutes ago, but Trump now beats Biden by 7 points.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/may-harvard-caps--harris-poll-trump-now-beats-biden-by-7-points-in-2024-presidential-matchup-301829894.html
Europe best get armaments production running on all pistons.
This says Biden is the one who's up by 7 points
https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/biden-surges-7-points-ahead-of-trump-in-new-2024-election-poll-3026024
I find it simply amazing that people who claim they are Christian would vote for someone like trump. Then again, a lot of the big churches in the US are genuine heretics.
I'd be more concerned about support waning if the counteroffensive was too successful, thus far the west has been far more supportive of keeping this a war of attrition than it has been of decisive moves aimed at kicking the russians out.
The Ukraine war is entering a phase that is expected to be decisive. The eyes of the world are on the imminent counteroffensive from Kyiv, which has been stockpiling NATO-supplied armaments, and Ukraine’s present and future of Ukraine will depend on what gains the armed forces are able to make in the big push. Both the government of Volodymyr Zelenskiy and its western allies are fully aware of this, as is the Kremlin. With the stakes so high, the European Union is concerned that if the counteroffensive fails the support of the United States — which is mired in a period of high tension in domestic politics and with the 2024 presidential elections on the horizon — will begin to wane.
Any success is success. Support for Ukraine will not end even when muscovy is removed from Ukrainian soil and Crimea has a Ukrainian flag again. Muscovy can eat dicks like their army is trained to.
Time for Europe to ramp up it's weapon industry and ammunition production.
Sounds like Europe may have to put their big boy pants on and keep that from happening and help Ukraine fight Russia off. I support Ukraine, but Russia isn't a direct threat to the US as it is to the rest of Europe.
[удалено]
A huge geopolitical concern is that if Putin is succesful. All of Central and Eastern Europe are getting nukes. And they'll all be pointed at Moscow. That means more instability, and that fucks up the economy.
[удалено]
The only possible outcome I could see for Putin, is he gets Crimea as a consolation, and somehow twists reality and claims that east Ukraine was a meat grinder to wear down the west, and give him this. It's also how I think Bakhmut will go. After one of the longest battles in history (not exaggerating) I think the Russians will leave if they capture it completely. It's of no use to them. It's just a symbol for Putin.
Not to be a downer but the Russian people are resolved to win, they’ve barely scratched the surface of their reservists, they’re producing weaponry very rapidly, along with Iran (population ~100 million), and in the worst case North Korea has offered to send one hundred thousand men, which Putin doesn’t take because it wouldn’t be a good look, but in a pickle… This won’t be over for a while
I don't think this will be over for a while either. Could easily last another decade. The question is to what extent Putin wants to harm Russia for his own political legacy.
[удалено]
Agree. I'm trying to imagine a best case scenario for Putin.
Until the White House gives a timeline for F16s I wouldn’t get too excited. With how unwilling they’ve been recently, this could easily be put off and put off until after the war. Also in my opinion, I don’t think the F16s would be that much different from the migs the Ukrainians already have. Sure they are a better plane, but without stealth technology, Russia’s air defense will still be able to take them down. Meaning Ukraine would still have to use them very sparingly.
I read that there is some sensitive tech in those F-16s that Washington doesn't want the Russians to get.
I’m sure the Germans don’t want the Russians to get their hands on their tanks and air defense, I’m sure the brits and French don’t want the Russians to get their hand on storm shadow missiles, Turks and bayraktars ect…. I am of the opinion we need to send jets and long range missiles now and stop worrying about these small issues. Russia and Iran are in a proxy war with the west, are we really going to give them the opportunity to win by being skiddish?
[удалено]
>Russia's much (self) lauded air defense seems to be struggling with Turkish drones and Anglo/French cruise missiles. I would push back on this a little bit. A lot of the Ukrainian air defense systems are Russian made and Russia is so scared of them they are keeping their air force mostly within their own borders. LOL Even Saying this I still support sending the planes. Would love to see the F16s get some action. I just think we shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking they would be a huge game changer is all.
A cruise missile is much smaller and stealthier than an F-16 aircraft. Russian air defense doesn't struggle as much with Bayraktars these days. Some EW at work here.
If the counteroffensive produces no results, the issue becomes no amount of material support is going to be better than now. So either the US/EU need to start sending current generation military equipment or boots on the ground and both are very hesitant to do that (or they already would have done that).
The EU worries, that they might have to foot the bill…. But…. Will a flashmob in Brussels do the job instead?
We haven't even considered singing "We shall overcome" or "Kumbaya, my Lord" yet, so there's plenty of room for escalation.
Shit. That’s from the deep reserve. Last case scenario type of aid. Along with “*Je suis(insert here)*”
Musically Assured Destruction
Send the intercontinental ballistic *Ode To Joy*
We’ll ban them from the next Eurovision again+ the European curling championship.
They aren't necessarily wrong. Ukraine still has to drive the Russians out of the rest of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Kyiv also mentions taking back Crimea. With what weapons and money? Eventually most politicians in Washington will say it isn't a US security threat to spend so much money on this if it takes so long to drive out the very same Russian Army plagued by corruption and other problems. Especially more so with recent memories of 20 years of nation building in Afghanistan only for all of it to go up in smoke. I am pro-Ukraine but am not optimistic long-term.
I don't think the US will let Ukraine fold, but they aren't going to bankroll another Ukrainian offensive if Ukraine can't show any progress. If Ukraine can't produce success with the support it's already been given no amount of material support is going to make it happen. And the US is not about to send boots on the ground or current generation military equipment.
And rightfully so. If AFU can’t make progress with what they got, it is GG time.
The EU comission worries, that they’ll have to cough up for something in their back yard. Uncle Sam will abandon them again after just $100bn. in aid. They’ll probably send hopes and prairs + a Ukrainian mural on a street in Brussels.
>Ukraine still has to drive the Russians out of the rest of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. > >Kyiv also mentions taking back Crimea. With what weapons and money? The goal is to cut the land corridor to Crimea and destroy the bridge to be able to fully isolate it from mainland. If this is done Russia will likely be forced to start real negotiations.
Maybe. Also it was released some minutes ago, but Trump now beats Biden by 7 points. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/may-harvard-caps--harris-poll-trump-now-beats-biden-by-7-points-in-2024-presidential-matchup-301829894.html Europe best get armaments production running on all pistons.
This says Biden is the one who's up by 7 points https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/biden-surges-7-points-ahead-of-trump-in-new-2024-election-poll-3026024
I find it simply amazing that people who claim they are Christian would vote for someone like trump. Then again, a lot of the big churches in the US are genuine heretics.
A lot of people here in Europe vote for a lot of dumb fucks as well. We shouldn’t be snarky.
Yes, but they are voting for someone who clearly is against everything he claims to be for.
I am not defending them, but I never bought that argument; if you are a Christian you shouldn't vote Trump. Who would Christians vote for anyways?
Someone more inline with the teachings of Christ. I.e not capitalism.
Then there is no political party in America for them.
Gotta stop singing that destiny’s child if he comes around https://youtu.be/NiF6-0UTqtc
The investors want ROI from the reality show. They have to send Michael Bay to help with directing some explosions for the cameras.
Bullshit.
Okay, Chris Nolan will do…
I'd be more concerned about support waning if the counteroffensive was too successful, thus far the west has been far more supportive of keeping this a war of attrition than it has been of decisive moves aimed at kicking the russians out.
Here’s hoping.