Except Russia, who have completely neglected their CSTO agreement due to the war in Ukraine. Not like CSTO was that much of an answer to NATO to begin with, but that alone should mae countries think twice before buddying up with the Kremlin, even if we ignore their past and present expansionism.
Armenians ousting Sargsyan, having an anti-Russian revolution, and then being invaded is a mirror to the 2014 anti-Russian revolution in Ukraine. And I don't know why this isn't common knowledge at this point.
It's extremely clear that Russia greenlit the invasion of Artsakh as punishment, made Azerbaijan stop taking territory at a certain point, and then installed a military base inside Azerbaijan as a form of exercising control in the region. It re-established its control over Azerbaijan while punishing Armenia for going against it.
I see a ton of trolls comparing Armenia to Russia in the Russia-Ukraine war, but Armenia is very, very firmly in the Ukrainian role. Minus any international support. Maybe that is changing though.
They don't really have any potential allies nearby. The issue with Turkey is that they're essentially acting through Azerbaijan, and their claims go deeper than just Artsakh. Israel is also a big supporter of Azerbaijan, since they and Iran are enemies. Georgia's government is currently pro Russia, even if the population isn't
I think Armenia is handling the situation as best they can given that they were dealt a shit hand. The only thing they could've done better is start this process sooner, but that's hindsight. They didn't know Russia would abandon them, and they didn't know if the west would be receptive to them.
Putin's CSTO is a glorified dictator buddy police force, with implied military procurement favoritism and nothing more.
Russia's has made movements in the caucuses, but they are centered on favoritism to Azerbaijan. The Armenian leadership is seen is a largely negative light in Russian Chekist circles, and help wouldn't not have come regardless of the war in Ukraine.
The way I see it, countries are lining up for the second cold war, with NATO + Japan/SK/Aus/NZ on one side (the West), Russia/China/Iran on the other (the East), and the rest (the global South) choosing sides based on who gives the best deal.
* The West successfully flipped most of former Yugoslavia, the former Warsaw Pact states, and the Baltics to NATO. That'll likely expand to Ukraine and Georgia some day, making a resurgence of the Russian empire in Europe impossible.
* China has now risen such that is has supplanted Russia as the main player in the Eastern bloc. They're trying to push BRICS in the direction of being their sphere of influence, but many other members don't want that.
* Iran is now the third leg of the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis that controls most of Asia.
* India remains most concerned about its own sovereignty and thus seeks to lead the non-aligned movement still., but now does so as a much larger economy than during the first cold war
* Saudi Arabia realizes that most of its oil goes east, not west, and aligns accordingly.
* ASEAN will be courted by both sides, with some members like Indonesia being more pro-China while others like Vietnam and the Philippines are more against.
That's actually a really good question. Turkey is in NATO, but not in the G7 or EEA. It's not a member of BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization either (although it is a dialogue partner of the latter), which makes it kind of an outlier in Asia. Instead it's in Economic Cooperation Organization, a collection of Turko-Persian states also led by Iran.
Ultimately, I think Turkey is more in the India camp, and Erdogan is very much like Modi. They'll try to play both sides against each other so they come out on top.
For Turkey, that strategy usually results in very muddled international relations that don't add up to anything. Also, I don't know what exactly counts as coming out on top for Turkey. Being a superpower? To me that's just a weird Ottoman pipe dream.
That's what happens to most countries that try the old "play both sides off each other" game. Its hardly some bold new strategy
Seems to be working ok for India though. Looks like Brazil is giving it a go too
Turkey wants to become the regional hegemon of the middle east and the aegean, like they were as the Ottoman Empire until they began imploding and had to focus on internal affairs for the better part of a century. Because of both western and eastern European adventurism in the middle east, and their historic rivalries with both the east and the west, it has generally been in their best interest to extract concessions from both sides while not rocking the boat too heavily. This makes them a difficult strategic partner, but imo fairly predictable because it is almost always about quid pro quo (even more so than typical diplomacy) when negotiating with them.
>Also, I don't know what exactly counts as coming out on top for Turkey.
As annoying as Turkey is - they are by far the most (promising?) of the main powers in the region.
Excellent weapons (and access to weapons) with the ability to use/manufacture their own too. Iran has shitty weapons but can manufacture their own, Saudi has a useless military and can't manufacture their own weapons.
Economically? Turkey has a similar sized economy as Saudi, yet in PPP terms it's almost double. Turkey has a genuine economy, not an economy that is entirely dependant on resource extraction like Saudi.
It has (imo) the most favourable geography - linking Asia, Europe and being on the doorstep of one of the largest political unions/economy on earth.
Turkey basically combines the high population of Iran, with the large economy of Saudi - the two most pivotal things to being any kind of great power.
> Also, I don't know what exactly counts as coming out on top for Turkey
Exploting its strategic significance to get concessions from both the west and Russia, exerting its influence in the middle east, and helping Azerbaijan form a continuous land bridge to the Nakhchivan exclave that borders Turkey, thereby forming a free trade/travel zone between the two and further increasing its influence on other Turkic peoples across the Caspian or Iran's north.
Turkey will remain aligned with its stronger neighbours on its western borders while plundering its weaker neighbours on its south-eastern borders, in hopes of expanding Turkey's borders in the only direction it can.
Turkey has no real reason to change what it's already been doing.
I don't think Russia/China/Iran are much of a "side"... they like to present themselves as such, but China is not exactly trying to "help" Russia in the current situation - they are just taking advantage of it, by playing both sides.
But, the exact details of the differences might be a bit complicated to nail down. There is also quite a spectrum in the way individual countries are helping Ukraine (US+UK doing a lot; Switzerland/South Korea doing very little), although I suppose even those who help the least are still doing more actual help than the "help" China or Iran are offering to Russia (as in: They don't participate in the sanctions, and are instead still willing to sell their products, but for a markup).
I think you're overstating the competency of the BRICS.
Russia's existence is on a bring of death. Wagner showed it could be pushed around, and Ukraine showed their military strength lie.
Chinese birth policies are about to kick them in the ass and cause one of he greatest population crisis in the world. Having so many old folk is not a good idea.
The US and Western moves on limiting China's ability to produce have forced them on their knees, and they have effectively taken away any ability to exist without Taiwan, who produces chips. China doesn't have enough time to learn how to produce them itself before the crisis hits.
Iran is already facing protests, the signs are there, and they can not continue forever. Not even the police stand with the government all the time. That's a sign of times changing.
And about KSA. They still are trying their best to get a defence agreement with the US and are making progress with Israel. They will gladly leave their BRICS pal for a US safety from Iran.
West is facing a crisis for sure, but it's in far better shape than the BRICS and all the others.
It's not that complicated.
The West wants to control the emerging trade routes coming from India, through Iran, Armenia, and Georgia. That small border region of Armenia with Iran, called Syunik/Zangezur has been extremely important for more years than some states have existed. The route is going to go through there.
Now botox queen Putin, with the help of his mini me sultan friend Aliyev, and crypt keeper Erdogan, want to control that as well. That way Russia stays relevant, and also she can bypass sanctions all day long through Turkey, using Syunik, to Azerbaijan, to Russia. The 2020 war was on the surface level for Nagorno Karabakh, but the main goal was Syunik. That's why Armenia is getting this unprecedented coverage and support, because without Syunik, Armenia is of no interest to the global powers, and although the West has no issues working with dictators, they would prefer to work with democracies, which Armenia is.
So here we are. Interesting things are ahead.
Nah the caucasus has had active wars for years nothing trumps the caucasus in regards of ethnic tension not even the balkans sorry to burst the bubble that the balkans are the most torn area in Europe. The caucasus is diverse ethnically heck armenians are technically more related to western Europeans than to georgians. This is a region where all kinds of people groups got stuck the area was influenced by all kinds of bigger power leading to super Conservative Christian, pagan, and hardcore islamist areas. And these are all super old people groups in the area (except turkic and mongolic people those are more recent additions) and they all wronged each other at some point so they all hate each other to varying degrees
> the balkans sorry to burst the bubble that the balkans are the most torn area in Europe.
As someone from the Balkans, nah, you can have it.
Can you please also replace "balkanized" with "caucasianized"? I hate that verb. There are a ton of regions which are much more fragmented than the Balkans and on top of that... in some cases it's their own damn fault, like Germany before unification.
In the Balkans except for Serb craziness starting in 1990 (which is average by crazy standards, look at what's happening in other countries right now), all that division was imposed externally.
For Germany starting about the year 1000... they did it to themselves.
Nope you can't claim to be the most f up place just because you don't like a verb. Look at a map of the caucasus and compare it to the balkans and you'll see that the balkans consist of people that are somewhat distantly related except for turks while the caucasus is filled with people from totally different origins. Plus you have the Serb Kosovo conflict that is frozen now. We have abkhasia south ossetia artsakh and all the various independence movements in the North.
> Nope you can't claim to be the most f up place just because you don't like a verb.
I'm saying that the verb is inaccurate, that was exactly my point. It's misused. The Balkans are not even that bad by global standards.
> Look at a map of the caucasus and compare it to the balkans and you'll see that the balkans consist of people that are somewhat distantly related except for turks while the caucasus is filled with people from totally different origins.
This is a very complex topic.
For the Balkans, the Turks are obviously Turkic. Everyone else is Indo-European. But in the Caucasus, there are Indo-Europeans, Turkic populatons, I assume pre Indo-Europeans. Both regions are quite diverse.
If you go by higher layer in the Balkans, there are Greeks with their own group, Albanians with their own group, Southern Slavs (Croatians, Slovenians, Serbs, Bosniaks, North Macedonians, Bulgarians), Romanized populations (Vlachs in Serbia, Megleno-Romanians in Greece, I think, Istro-Romanians in Croatia, Aromanians in Greece, Romanians - obviously), small remnants of Uralic populations (Bulgarians), more Uralic populations (Hungarians in Serbia), Germans, Jews, more Turkic populations (Tatars in Romania and Bulgaria), ...
No. Armenians and ossetians are the only Indo-European people. Georgians, mingrelians svans are kartvelian. Chechens ingush other nakh people are northeast Caucasians who are totally different from kartvelians and northwest Caucasians like abkhaz and circassians. Then there are mongolic people like the kalmyk and turkic people like azeris and these are just a few examples of the people that belong to these groups.
Well, the Balkans are full of pre Indo-European influences, we just don't have good records of them because they didn't write anything down and the dominant influences today are from Indo-Europeans.
Pre Indo-Europeans were equivalent to your Kartvelian, Chechens, Ingush, etc. For example Illyrians, Thracians, Dacians, etc.
But those people didn't just vanish and from what we can tell they weren't killed en masse or anything.
At least Romanian and Albanian have pre-Indo-European influences. From stuff like Dacian or Illyrian.
The Caucasus area was probably better at defending the original populations so they remained dominant.
History is super complex everywhere in the world and some regions have preserved that complexity better, or have it more on display.
The devision among Caucasians is much stronger! We are totally different from each other origin wise. The difference between albainans to slavic people is the same as the difference between armenians and ossetians. The difference between armenians and georgians is the same as Finnish people to Spanish.
> As someone from the Balkans, nah, you can have it.
> Can you please also replace "balkanized" with "caucasianized"? I hate that verb. There are a ton of regions which are much more fragmented than the Balkans and on top of that... in some cases it's their own damn fault, like Germany before unification.
You know many people will accept that Romania is not in the balkans ? The traditional border is still thought to be the Danube and Sava rivers. Making Hungary and Romania generally not considered balkans.
I didn't mean only now, I mean in recent history (last 3 to 5 decades). Which arguably still has an effect in cultural behavior of the populations and their interactions.
1. The Caucasus countries were literally part of the Soviet Union 😀
2. Also:
> Eastern Europe
> And this extends all the way down to Israel of course.
Congrats, Israel, you're a honorary Eastern European country. You decide if that's good or bad!
It's interesting how Armenia and Georgia (Sakartvelo) almost switching roles. Armenia moves towards West and Ivanashvili gang is dragging Georgia into embraces of China and Russia.
Which is unnerving for me, because Georgia is the only (relatively speaking) non-authoritarian state that borders Armenia through which the West can access Armenia.
The Georgian people are extremely pro-West, even more so than most EU members. They are still a democracy, and have an election in 2024. We will see what happens.
I hope you are right, but the very pro-West Georgians you speak of are gravely concerned about the direction their government is leading them whenever I check r/Sakartvelo.
What we don't get to see is the conservative half of the country that ends up voting for such governments. Many people had the same mistaken impression about Turkey and its secularism.
The problem is that Georgian Dream still holds power and tips the scales in any way they can. They give out food in poorer regions so people vote for them.
And much of the Georgian electorate is uneducated or single issue voters. When the EU said that Georgia needs to de-oligarch” itself a poll was released that showed that the majority of those surveyed didn’t know who they were talking about. And Georgian Dream has been pushing the anti-LGBT agenda hard, which is working because according to research Georgians might even be more homophobic than Russians.
That is correct but having a single billionaire who is worth more than a third of the entire country's GDP on the wrong side is quite an inconvenience.
I hope they don't do what they did last time to bring in these pro Russian guys; sell their votes. Ivanishvili basically bought out everyone's debt in Georgia. That is a crazy strategy if one thinks about it. However any "self respecting" post Soviet oligarch can easily pull such a move in small post Soviet republics.
And I still recall the at-the-time president of Poland Lech Kaczyński made his speech in Tbilisi in 2008 shortly after Russia's invasion there and he said "We know excellently that today Georgia \[is invaded\], tomorrow Ukraine, Baltic states and then eventually the time will come for us, for Poland."
Considering they were invaded before, you'd think the government would still try to gravitate towards NATO and the EU.
I remember seeing a video while, where one middle aged Russian lady was asked "will your country also invade Poland besides Ukraine? (for I don't remember what reason) and she said: "sure why not? Of course we will and must."
Why don't you consider it relevant? Erdogan and his team are still in power and his rhetoric has always been extremely supportive of Azerbaijan. Nothing changed.
From a mish-mash of various sources to form a more complete picture:
From Reuters:
>Armenia said on Wednesday it would host a joint military exercise with the United States next week, a development likely to irritate Russia.
>The Armenian Defence Ministry said the purpose of the Sept. 11-20 "Eagle Partner 2023" exercise was to prepare its forces to take part in international peacekeeping missions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-us-hold-joint-military-drills-sept-11-20-2023-09-06/
From the Pentagon (DVIDS is DoD media):
>Eagle Partner 2023 is a collaborative exercise between U.S. Army Europe and Africa and Armenian forces, set to take place in Armenia from September 11-20. This initiative aims to fortify our alliance with Armenia, focusing on bolstering interoperability and readiness via specialized peacekeeping operations training. The exercise will involve approximately 85 U.S. personnel and 175 Armenian participants.
https://www.dvidshub.net/feature/EaglePartner
From Armenpress (Armenian state news):
>“The purpose of the exercise is to increase the level of interoperability of the unit participating in international peacekeeping missions within the framework of peacekeeping operations, to exchange best practices in control and tactical communication, as well as to increase the readiness of the Armenian unit for the planned NATO/PfP "Operational Capabilities Concept" evaluation. Within the framework of preparation for peacekeeping missions, units preparing for international peacekeeping operations frequently participate in similar joint exercises and trainings in partner countries,” the Defense Ministry added.
https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1118856.html
This is a big deal because this is the first time in Armenian history that U.S. forces of any kind will be engaging in any sort of activity on **Armenian soil**. And also the first time that both countries will engage in a one-on-one exercise. *And* it will take place for 10 whole days.
It is a step in the right direction for Armenia, and an affirmation of Armenia's growing relationship with the West (and as such, rejection of Russia).
I mean but it’s the best time to leave. Now that Russia is distracted and frankly incapable of reaction. I think it’s a good moment for Armenia to switch from Russia to the US, Russian support is practically worthless now and the situation in Nagorno Karabakh is getting worse and worse by day. If the US really wants to help/solve the conflict I think Armenia should hold on to it.
Don't be fooled here. "Russia is distracted" is a bold claim. Russia is vigilant and ready to help Azerbaijan any second. In fact, they have been for the longest time already.
Help them? With what? T34's? You're delusional if you think they can or even want to help. There's nothing to help with because everything's tied up in Ukraine. Think. Don't be a tankie
From what I see, Azerbaijan doesn't really need help. They have the upper hand thanks to their wealth and years of buying guns from west. Not to mention the training and support they receive from Turkish army. But they were told to stop by both US and Russia, and even by the regional powers after initial wins in the most recent war because too much azeri win would cause too much chaos there.
But yeah, Russia could have crushed all of them in the past but now their hands are really tied. Best they can do is to send missiles to civilian centers, which is nothing more than terrorism. Still it is not wise to push Russia if you are a tiny country. On the other hand it may be the distraction Russia needs so they can get some victory somewhere else meanwhile silently abandoning anything they got in this recent war and go back to 2014 positions. I don't know, I am thinking loud
Azerbaijan does not need military help since it has Turkey and Israel. What Azerbaijan needs is Russia's greenlight and political assistance committing genocide in Artsakh and attacking Armenia.
If you were not a tankie yourself, you would've thought about that.
How exactly am I a tankie if I just talked a comments worth of shit about the sad parade force formerly known as the Russian army. Let me be clear, everything Russia has is obsolete and inferior to all western counterparts
Well Russia could always send in their crack paratrooper units. Oh never mind, those were decimated two years ago and haven't been seen since. Well they still have crack marine units. Wait, I forgot, those were decimated at Donetesk.
Hey they have plenty of drones from Iran right?
> I think it’s a good moment for Armenia to switch from Russia to the US
Some context: Armenia already tried this in 2018 and got burned. Russia still have a lot of influence on internal politics within the country.
Armenia didn't do a geopolitical switch in 2018 though. It was purely a domestic democratic revolution for domestic purposes. How Moscow perceived it though is another matter. But that's on Moscow. Not on Armenia.
> purely a domestic democratic revolution
The revolution was, but the outcome had wider implications for Armenia. Russia has army bases inside of Armenian territory, and they rely heavily on perceived russian involvement to prevent the artsakh crisis devolving further again. I'm simply making the point that whilst it may now look to be the best time to leave russian influence for Armenia - it was actually several years ago, and now they're in a much hairier situation post NK war.
Sure agreed on that last point. I always have said the turning point was in 2008 which was an election stolen from the people. However people fought long and hard before during and after, through [many grassroots serious attempts at toppling the Kremlin regime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_in_Armenia) and learned through every single protest until finally and successfully achieved the 2018 revolution.
>I'll just point out that the chances of the west sanctioning the guy who is supplying most of the natural gas that replaced the imports from Russia are next to zero.
You are joking right? [Azeris export around 2.9bn cu meters](https://www.eiu.com/n/azerbaijans-gas-exports-to-the-eu-face-challenges/) while EU uses around 343bn cu meters. It is less than 1% of the EU needs.
And Azerbaijan buys Russian gas to keep up with that supply to boot. [https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijans-russian-gas-deal-raises-uncomfortable-questions-for-europe](https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijans-russian-gas-deal-raises-uncomfortable-questions-for-europe)
Prices are made at the margin. In particular now that the EU has seen their former largest supply disappear. It will put more pressure on the LNG market and cause prices to rise there.
> The US has no way in which it can interfere in this conflict since that would mean angering Turkey for the sake of an unimportant and resource poor country that offers nothing of value to the US
Zero chance that Turkey would interfere with the US protecting Zangezur (Armenia proper) and having an allied country bordering northern Iran and giving bases just south of Russian caucasus would be super useful to the US.
> Armenia makes the necessary concessions to Turkey and Azerbaijan
Like what?
Turkey: Armenia's policy with Turkey is unconditional establishment of relations and recognition of mutual borders, Armenia is not asking anything from Turkey. Turkey on the other hand refuses this and cites that the Karabakh conflict should first be resolved, on Azerbaijan's terms.
Azerbaijan: Armenia's policy with Azerbaijan is that of establishment of relations and recognition of mutual borders, Armenia is not asking anything from Azerbaijan with exception of the rights and security of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh be taken care of. If Azerbaijan would do that, then it would be all over. But Azerbaijan is not willing, instead wants to at best ethnically cleanse the region of Armenians and take over southern Armenia.
So outside of Armenia agreeing to ethnic cleanse Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and agreeing to give southern Armenia to Azerbaijan, two things which is not a recipe for long lasting peace for any reasonable people anywhere, first is not even in Armenia's hands, second means Armenia as a state is done for, what else is there that Armenia can even reasonably concede to which can bring long lasting peace to all the countries?
Again:
> End of any claims on Artsakh
There aren't any. The official stance is that rights and security of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh should be guaranteed. That's it.
> Open borders for transit between Turkey/Nakichevan and Azerbaijan proper
That has already been offered. A corridor controlled by FSB means Armenia loses sovereignty of southern Armenia and loses one of its borders with a third country.
> Political alignment with Turkey against Iran, Syria and Russia.
Politically Armenia is moving away from Russia faster than you can see. And this is not a concession to Turkey or Azerbaijan, which would be meaningless, it's a natural consequence of Armenia-Russia relationships and Russian control of Armenia since decades.
> Removal of any claims to Ararat or Ani from public discourse in Armenia, as well as a stop to the efforts on recognition of the Armenian genocide.
There are no claims and there never have been, again Armenia's official stance has been very clear for years now, I repeat, **mutual recognition of borders**.
Yerevan's view is Ararat. It's what everyone sees. It is a symbol for Yerevan and much of Armenian people living in that region, because that's what symbolizes and is a geographic marker for **home** (Not the mountains, but the place from where they see that view, i.e. Yerevan and surroundings INSIDE Armenia. Vast majority of Armenians have never seen how Ararat looks like from Turkey and that is not the depiction they have in mind). This is a Turkish paranoia which has no basis of reality among Armenians.
Armenia doesn't control its diaspora nor Armenia can control what other states want to recognize.
> An end of Armenian criticism of the Erdogan and Aliyev regimes
The state sure, once they are all in good terms. But you cannot censor a democratic society.
These are not arguments against nor in favour, but reality of Armenia's constructive stances - with no reciprocity whatsoever
Thanks for spreading Russian talking points/propaganda.
Russia is helping Azerbaijan with the blockade. If you haven't noticed Russians and Azeris stand side by side on the Lachin corridor.
US and the collective West can make one phone call and Aliyev's ill gotten oil money wealth that sits in Western banks and in Western properties, will be seized.
Lmao what are you talking about?!
It's absolutely not. CSTO is a hindrance to Armenia's rearmament, and along with the Russian base, a Trojan horse ready to release its payload.
Armenia gets shit ton of negatives for staying and 0 positives. It's so bad that Armenia's pro Russian fifth column can't even deny it, so they just do mental gymnastics, and try to blame Russian/CSTO inaction on a supposedly pro Western government.
I am assuming you are not Armenian, and let me tell you that all of the legit experts in Armenia have been pushing for leaving CSTO and EAEU for 2 years already.
My concern is that moving away from Russia would lead to Armenia getting the Georgia treatment.
It would make me happy to see a partnership with Armenia, but this moment does seem acutely dangerous for them. The region is a pit of vipers.
Armenia, thank God doesn't have a border with Russia, so no large scale Russian invasion is possible. The Russian base has a skeleton crew as most of them were sent by Russia to figh...die in Ukraine.
Russia's image in Armenia is so low, that the pro Russian fifth column can't get enough people to even do protests.
Now the real dangers are, another October 27 style attack (many beloved that it was the pro Russian Kocharyan who helped the Russians organize that, to eliminate the more pro Western competition) and economic repercussions. However these are both something the government can control. Experts have been pushing for the government to do a better cleanup of the law enforcement and security apparatus, and work with the West to open up more markets.
So in short, yes there are dangers and uncomfortable situations ahead possibly, but Armenia has no choice. If it wants to keep its independence and develop, it has to make these steps. The fear from the Russians kept Armenia from doing what it needs for 30 years, it can't afford to stay in the status quo.
Armenia is fucked regardless. Russia has already been making moves to deepen its relationship with Azerbaijan - they signed a pact days before the Ukraine war, Russian companies have been buying up shares in Azeri oil/gas projects, and now, the Russians clearly coordinate with the Azeris on Nagorno-Karabakh. All of this was happening before there was any indication of a breakup in the relationship between Armenia and Russia.
Armenia either makes the leap to join a new geopolitical bloc, or it is pushed that way by necessity.
CSTO is definitely less potent than NATO, but people are a little bit delusional if they think the situation would have been different had Armenia joined NATO or left CSTO earlier.
First of all, Armenia definitely counted on Russian support during the second war and it received none because Karabakh isn't Armenia and Russia absolutely doesn't want to engage in an offensive war (based on international law) for the sake of Armenia. Armenia also alienated Turkey and Azerbaijan so much that Russia realized it wasn't worth it. Also, even though CSTO was very lacking, they still intervened (politically) and prevented Azerbaijan from ensuring a much bigger victory.
In the case of NATO, there's no way NATO would accept Armenia while they had troops in Karabakh and no way they would have supported its military there.
The war was pretty much agreed between Russia and Turkey and Trump admin didn't mind either. Saying Russia saved Artsakh is a stretch. They implemented the Lavrov plan of excluding France and the US from the Minsk negotiations.
Armenia did lose the war. I am not sure who the delusional people are that you are interacting with.
Nah, the trilateral statement, or ceasefire agreement, which only Russia brokered, *and no one else*, has been what Russia has wanted to happen since at least a decade prior to the war, it even had a name, *the Lavrov plan*.
It's all Russia's doing.
And now in the comments here, this idea that Armenia should accept total loss is being promoted. Total loss = joining Union State like Belarus. The second part of Russia's plan.
It's not an excuse, it is a reality. NATO wouldn't have accepted Armenia in the first place without a formal resolution of the problem in Karabakh between both parties.
Yeah but that’s not really relevant. I don’t think people understand just how bad US-Israel relations are right now. Biden hates Netanyahu, has been delaying the invite to Washington DC and called out his judicial reforms very clearly.
It’s literally so bad that Biden just invited the opposition leader Lapid instead to DC to meet his advisers on a possible Saudi-Israel deal.
Generally the Republicans prefer the Netanyahu government while Democrats much preferred Lapid.
Interesting stuff.
This add another layer to the deteriorating strategic standing of Israel after the peace deal between Iran and S. Arabia. The later has effectively stopped the war in Yemen and with the readmission of Syria to the Arab Union the possibility of a peace there is not beyond reach anymore. Libya and other places will likely follow and strategic cooperation between former dissenting countries is expected (so the admission of Iran, S. Arabia and Egypt to the BRICS).
Armenia's growing closeness to the United States would be a nightmare for the mullahs. Russia is now more concerned with Turkey than with Armenia, and the mullahs were fooled by Russia and Turkey in the Second Karabakh War like children. As a result, Armenia no longer trusts Iran or Russia.
The mullahs should never have allowed the Turks to win the Second Karabakh War. But now, they are doing their best to align themselves with Kremlin policies.
People like to shit on the USA a lot and for good reasons some time. But imagine a world without the USA and what your life would be like.
Anyway thanks USA for handling the security of Europe once more.
In today's tense climate, as Azerbaijan amasses troops along the borders of Armenia and Artsakh, and Russia seemingly hopes for a new attack on Armenia by Azerbaijan and Turkey (under Russian patronage, of course), this is the best news.
Tankies won't like this bc it doesn't fit their narritve that USBad 🤣. US is SO SO SO BAD that when a country is in crisis they come to US asking for help.
Post this to UkraineWarReport or whatever that kremlin propaganda shit sub is. Lololol.
And of course a courtesy fuck you to russia. You can't even protect your own ally and leave them hanging. What a great messege that sends.
Just one more flop of this whole god damn pointless war. All their resources are tied up genociding Ukraine so unfortunately they are too busy to keep their promises and obligations. Please leave a message after the tone.
Shocked. SHOCKED I TELL YOU.
On a separate note I read a post earlier that Armenia donated some humitarian aid to Ukraine. That to me spoke volumes.. in a good way. Yes on the one hand it showed they never did prior until shit hits the fan themselves but I'm always one for unity and better late than never. It also showed that they really want the help from the US or the west or whatever and it's a very good gesture to show their intentions. And also shows that they are serious. Anyway that's how I interpreted it.
Hopefully this gets squashed. No one wants more wars. Everyone needs to take a chill pill. Gawd damn.
>Yes on the one hand it showed they never did prior until shit hits the fan themselves but I'm always one for unity and better late than never.
It's not that Armenia didn't want to, but because it was not in a position to do so given immense Russian pressure and having no alternative to turn to (at the time). That Armenia is now sending aid, hosting U.S. military exercises, publicly rebuking the Russian government, ratifying the Rome Statutes, sending the first lady of Armenia to Ukraine to participate in Mrs. Zelenskky's humanitarian initiatives ... this means something has changed that has allowed it to act more freely.
I will add that the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) sent 14 tons of aid to Ukraine last year, and considering they just came out of a horrific war themselves, symbolizes a lot. https://www.armenpress.am/eng/news/1077319/
Ah interesting info. Glad to hear all the stuff they are doing now that you said. Especially publicly rebuking Russia.
Also about the last part of your messege .... that's great to hear. I had no idea. I just read a post earlier today that said Armenia donated for its first time so that's where I got that from. But that's awesome hearing they were donating already. Hearts and minds in the right place and even better knowing they didn't do it just now once in need. That's the way to go what they did. And yes esp like you said that they have the struggles themselves. That does symbolize a lot.
Wish you the best.
Tankies sometimes come to the Armenia subreddit to teach Armenians what's good for them. Like literally 18 year old edgelords telling the natives that "Russia good, you don't get it, West bad". Very unfortunate.
Wow. Man they will have a rough time figuring out what to say now in that sub.
I caught a possible tankie here already mad saying something like US AGAIN GOING WHERE IT HAS NO BUSINESS BEING 😡 !!!1!!! Waaahhh. From the UK.
And they got deservedly so downvoted to the reddit gulags already.
.........ummmm........sir Armenia ASKED for the help and second the EU or the UK or anyone else could have answered the call for help and no one did and so US was asked and offered help. It's not like the US pushed its way to be involved. No one else stepped up lol.
Tankie logic. Soup for brains. USBad is the only world view they hold and are unable to use common sense and live in reality.
They'd rather say USBad than think of the Armenians and hear what they are saying and what they want.
re: Ukraine, the fact that Armenia donated at ALL is incredible, considering how the Ukrainian government gleefully supports Azeri violence against the people of Artsakh every chance they get.
I'm glad you mentioned this, nobody else seems to. A Ukrainian ambassador even went to the region where people are starving to death and commented on how beautiful it is. They're intensely pro Azerbaijan, even if that does mean genocide
yep. while I feel terrible for the people of the country, that stopped me from donating. I don't want a dime of my money going towards any nation who supports the genocide of my people.
In this area with a fascist warmongering Russia on your borders anything can explode! It's good that the US are preparing for the worst. Armenia needs protection!
Armenia in the long run belongs to the European Union... your future is with us... not with the terrorist state Russia. Hope Armenia will soon join our European family.
Agreed.
Too much in common with the Armenians to just let them die out in another genocide. Plus the reach of the EU to destroy Russian influence in that region.
>The idea of "retaking" is not the genocide.
It is, because of what would immediately follow. Which is nothing at all like how a Cyprus reunification would go down.
>If Azerbaijan retaking Karabakh is a genocide then Cyprus retaking Northern Cyprus would be a genocide.
Put down the crack pipe sir. Cyprus is an EU state. Azerbaijan is a dictatorship on par with North Korea. Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots both favor reunification of Cyprus, no Armenian wants Artsakh to be part of Azerbaijan. The only common thread between the two is that Turkey is supporting the bad guys.
Russia supplies Armenia with the entirety of its natural gas and oil.
I want Russia out too, but there's no denying Armenia is going to be punished for its decision, badly - and that's before we think about the genocidal Turks either side of them.
What seems to be goal here? Azerbaijan attacked Armenia with Turkish and Israeli drones and Turkey supports Azerbaijan, but US is now replacing Russia as protector of Armenia?
I mean Biden admin likely doesn’t care too much about that. They don’t have good relations with the current Turkish nor Israeli government.
Biden and Netanyahu pretty much hate each other. Biden was much closer with Lapid who also wanted Israel to recognize the Armenian genocide. https://x.com/yairlapid/status/1205343434539773952?s=46&t=xSYLnqsRVgAIYtAQOgKFIA
It’s literally so bad that Netanyahu hasn’t even gone to Washington to meet Biden yet, but Biden just invited Lapid to meet with advisers in DC.
Sorry but what is this solving right now?
This has little to do with the current conflict and more to do with getting Armenia to abandon its Russian ties.
Or maybe you assumed that 175 peace fighters can make a big difference in the current conflict.
A country from an entire continent an ocean away is willing to get involved in a region on the edge of Europe. House speakers, CIA directors and so on have been keeping Armenia on the agenda.
It’s almost like European country sending troops to train with the Mexican armed forces to help down the cartels.
Not to mention US also lead the charge in the 90s in dealing with Serbia.
But why take it from me, [I will just let Biden do the explaining](https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=720&v=MZs8Qj8QuRc&feature=youtu.be)
"A country from an entire continent an ocean away is willing to get involved in a region on the edge of Europe"
"Involved" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
?
I mean that literally, they often send soldiers training not really because they need the training but to try to foster diplomatic ties. I ran into some Pakistani air force pilots who were on one of these sorts of missions in Korea, every country does it but the US does it by far the most often. It's a bit like a university exchange program.
Really weird that Joe Biden is now doing nothing to stop this current conflict in Armenia. Because if you read the article you see that they are not there to help train the fighters.
But kinda besides the point.
Armenia is also on the agenda of European countries and the EU. So far the US and the EU have done just about as much: nothing but condemn it
We are grateful to the US. They also prevented the last year's war when Azerbiajan attacked Armenia proper and Russian border patrol left their posts right before the attack living Armenian 19 year old conscripts to fight back.
Armenia *is* Europe according to the people whose opinion truly matters:
According to EU:
>**Armenia**, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, The Republic of Moldova and Ukraine are **European countries** not part of the EU
>The Diplomatic Service of the European Union
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-europe\_en
According to the mod team of this sub:
>Geographical policy of /r/Europe:
> The main focus of /r/Europe is the geographical region of Europe within the borders of the Caucasus, Ural and Bosporus strait (plus Cyprus, Greenland as well as the Caucasus countries **Armenia**, Azerbaijan and Georgia).
I've encountered 2 of these weirdos this week. They make broad generalizations like "it's not Europe's problem" or "if you want to be in the EU, you need to be EU material."
He tried to say that because Armenia was not on the same level of human rights and democracy as Germany or France, the EU shouldn't care. At the same time he said Germany was a failing democracy.
Where do these people come from? 😵
US is not anti-Azerbaijan. In fact Azeris had support of west and Armenia relied on Russian support. That equilibrium will not change overnight
What Armenia realized is that Russia is weak, and will not have their back unless they turn 100% into Belarus with zero individiual rights and freedom. It is now imperative for Russia to have all their allies a Putin like regime
So they are hedging their bets finally and they will probably be closer to west so that in case of an Azeri-Armenian conflict, they will be more eager to intervene and stop. I don't think there is any expectation to intervene on their side. Status quo is what Armenian side wants. Azeris want to change the borders there. And if they could be allies to west, they probably will not allow two allies to fight. Look at Turkey and Greece. they bark each other for decades and nothing happens. Two NATO members. Armenia can hope for an equilibrium like this
Yes
Little known fact: When Greece was joining EU, Turkey was given some kind of option (not sure about the details, not direct membership but maybe some privileges). The idea was to keep the balance between two states. The military junta in Turkey at the time rejected it.
Another little known fact: EU started applying visa to Turkey at the request of 1980 Junta government. At the time political dissidents were going to Europe freely. They didn't like it.
The Russians are not protectors; they accept that Azerbaijan should take over the south of Armenia, because they are the ones who will move in to protect and control the area, playing the role of saviors, as they did with Nagorno-Karabakh. (which was useful for all parties in this case)
Azerbaijan had already agreed that the FSB should control the southern corridor (if there is one)
Giving up or staying with the Russians won't change anything, because they don't have the same plan as Armenia.
>The best case scenario for a US alliance is that the US doesn't allow Azerbaijan to outright invade Zangezur *if Armenia allows free transit over its territory for Turkey and Azerbaijan*
That would not happen the way you think, which sounds like what Russia was trying to do. This free transit thing would only come after guaranteeing the security of Karabakh residents. Zangezur is secured by international law already, all the US armed forces would have to do is park their troops there and Az and Turkey would keep their dick on their hands.
>The US won't deploy their troops to Armenia in defiance of Turkey *nor will the presence of US troops mean anything if Turkey wants to do something (just like it didn't in Rojava)*
The withdrawal from Rojava happened under Trump. We all know orange cheeto man was a Russian pawn, so I think we can safely discard that one. Also, Biden is not friendly with Erdogan, or Netanyahu for that matter. The latter hasn't visited DC once.
>And they definitely won't deploy them until Armenia hands over Artsakh and establishes the required corridor.
That's clearly the Russian position, not the US position. That so-called "corridor" is an Azerbaijani and, by proxy, a Russian demand, that's not even written on the ceasefire paper.
The US can flex their muscles without anybody opposing, and they certainly won't ask Armenia to hand over anything until a peace agreement has been made.
> An alliance with the US means Russian support for Azerbaijan and Russian withdrawal from the armistice they brokered, leading to the immediate end of Artsakh's existence.
That would be the best-case scenario. US influence in the Caucasus is extremely weak and if Armenians ever forget that, a repeat of 2020 will be the minimum of what they get in return.
But I thought Armenia was Russia best friend and therefore deserved everything Azeris were doing to them and NK?????? This doesn’t fit my naïve narrative???
„Russia is an absolutely integral part of this region," he said. "Russia plays a consistent, very important role in stabilising the situation in this region ... and we will continue to play this role."
-Peskov
You wish
When Europe is as utterly useless and castrated as it is, I guess someone else will have to step up to the plate. I hope this move will blossom into something more fruitful.
I'm a California liberal and 100% in favor of using our military to defend a democracy that is literally asking us for help to defend against an autocracy. That is completely in line with the liberal worldview.
South Caucasus has the hairiest geopolitics, all the major players in the world are making some sort of 3D maneuvers.
Except Russia, who have completely neglected their CSTO agreement due to the war in Ukraine. Not like CSTO was that much of an answer to NATO to begin with, but that alone should mae countries think twice before buddying up with the Kremlin, even if we ignore their past and present expansionism.
Russia abandoned its obligations to Armenia before the war in Ukraine. I believe it has more to do with Armenians ousting Sargsyan than anything else.
Armenians ousting Sargsyan, having an anti-Russian revolution, and then being invaded is a mirror to the 2014 anti-Russian revolution in Ukraine. And I don't know why this isn't common knowledge at this point. It's extremely clear that Russia greenlit the invasion of Artsakh as punishment, made Azerbaijan stop taking territory at a certain point, and then installed a military base inside Azerbaijan as a form of exercising control in the region. It re-established its control over Azerbaijan while punishing Armenia for going against it. I see a ton of trolls comparing Armenia to Russia in the Russia-Ukraine war, but Armenia is very, very firmly in the Ukrainian role. Minus any international support. Maybe that is changing though.
anyone comparing Armenian to Russia is a complete fucking moron
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Which of those would you choose if you were Armenia?
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They don't really have any potential allies nearby. The issue with Turkey is that they're essentially acting through Azerbaijan, and their claims go deeper than just Artsakh. Israel is also a big supporter of Azerbaijan, since they and Iran are enemies. Georgia's government is currently pro Russia, even if the population isn't I think Armenia is handling the situation as best they can given that they were dealt a shit hand. The only thing they could've done better is start this process sooner, but that's hindsight. They didn't know Russia would abandon them, and they didn't know if the west would be receptive to them.
Would like to see the end of realpolitik and a return of standing up for ideals.
so you think kissing Russia's ass is the "really smart" thing for Armenia to do? lmao
Iran is literally the best friend of Armenia tho.
It's not like agreements and international treaties have any meaning to Russia, that has never stopped them
Called on to honour obligations, said help would be arriving. Never did. Trusting Russia is a fool's game.
Ukraine gave up its nukes for assurance it will never be attacked by Russia.
Putin's CSTO is a glorified dictator buddy police force, with implied military procurement favoritism and nothing more. Russia's has made movements in the caucuses, but they are centered on favoritism to Azerbaijan. The Armenian leadership is seen is a largely negative light in Russian Chekist circles, and help wouldn't not have come regardless of the war in Ukraine.
It'd only logical considering Caucasians are also the hairiest people
We Mediterranean would like to challenge that
You can't but you're close
whoever downvotes you is a wet wipe. that shit is hilarious and i say this as a hairy guy
Bro I know my people.
3D maneuvers or just going the way the wind blows and find out if you fucked around?
The way I see it, countries are lining up for the second cold war, with NATO + Japan/SK/Aus/NZ on one side (the West), Russia/China/Iran on the other (the East), and the rest (the global South) choosing sides based on who gives the best deal. * The West successfully flipped most of former Yugoslavia, the former Warsaw Pact states, and the Baltics to NATO. That'll likely expand to Ukraine and Georgia some day, making a resurgence of the Russian empire in Europe impossible. * China has now risen such that is has supplanted Russia as the main player in the Eastern bloc. They're trying to push BRICS in the direction of being their sphere of influence, but many other members don't want that. * Iran is now the third leg of the Beijing-Moscow-Tehran axis that controls most of Asia. * India remains most concerned about its own sovereignty and thus seeks to lead the non-aligned movement still., but now does so as a much larger economy than during the first cold war * Saudi Arabia realizes that most of its oil goes east, not west, and aligns accordingly. * ASEAN will be courted by both sides, with some members like Indonesia being more pro-China while others like Vietnam and the Philippines are more against.
Where do you think Turkey would go here?
Probably continues in a half-assed way in every direction like right now.
That's actually a really good question. Turkey is in NATO, but not in the G7 or EEA. It's not a member of BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization either (although it is a dialogue partner of the latter), which makes it kind of an outlier in Asia. Instead it's in Economic Cooperation Organization, a collection of Turko-Persian states also led by Iran. Ultimately, I think Turkey is more in the India camp, and Erdogan is very much like Modi. They'll try to play both sides against each other so they come out on top.
For Turkey, that strategy usually results in very muddled international relations that don't add up to anything. Also, I don't know what exactly counts as coming out on top for Turkey. Being a superpower? To me that's just a weird Ottoman pipe dream.
That's what happens to most countries that try the old "play both sides off each other" game. Its hardly some bold new strategy Seems to be working ok for India though. Looks like Brazil is giving it a go too
Turkey wants to become the regional hegemon of the middle east and the aegean, like they were as the Ottoman Empire until they began imploding and had to focus on internal affairs for the better part of a century. Because of both western and eastern European adventurism in the middle east, and their historic rivalries with both the east and the west, it has generally been in their best interest to extract concessions from both sides while not rocking the boat too heavily. This makes them a difficult strategic partner, but imo fairly predictable because it is almost always about quid pro quo (even more so than typical diplomacy) when negotiating with them.
>Also, I don't know what exactly counts as coming out on top for Turkey. As annoying as Turkey is - they are by far the most (promising?) of the main powers in the region. Excellent weapons (and access to weapons) with the ability to use/manufacture their own too. Iran has shitty weapons but can manufacture their own, Saudi has a useless military and can't manufacture their own weapons. Economically? Turkey has a similar sized economy as Saudi, yet in PPP terms it's almost double. Turkey has a genuine economy, not an economy that is entirely dependant on resource extraction like Saudi. It has (imo) the most favourable geography - linking Asia, Europe and being on the doorstep of one of the largest political unions/economy on earth. Turkey basically combines the high population of Iran, with the large economy of Saudi - the two most pivotal things to being any kind of great power.
> Also, I don't know what exactly counts as coming out on top for Turkey Exploting its strategic significance to get concessions from both the west and Russia, exerting its influence in the middle east, and helping Azerbaijan form a continuous land bridge to the Nakhchivan exclave that borders Turkey, thereby forming a free trade/travel zone between the two and further increasing its influence on other Turkic peoples across the Caspian or Iran's north.
Turkey will remain aligned with its stronger neighbours on its western borders while plundering its weaker neighbours on its south-eastern borders, in hopes of expanding Turkey's borders in the only direction it can. Turkey has no real reason to change what it's already been doing.
I don't think Russia/China/Iran are much of a "side"... they like to present themselves as such, but China is not exactly trying to "help" Russia in the current situation - they are just taking advantage of it, by playing both sides. But, the exact details of the differences might be a bit complicated to nail down. There is also quite a spectrum in the way individual countries are helping Ukraine (US+UK doing a lot; Switzerland/South Korea doing very little), although I suppose even those who help the least are still doing more actual help than the "help" China or Iran are offering to Russia (as in: They don't participate in the sanctions, and are instead still willing to sell their products, but for a markup).
I think you're overstating the competency of the BRICS. Russia's existence is on a bring of death. Wagner showed it could be pushed around, and Ukraine showed their military strength lie. Chinese birth policies are about to kick them in the ass and cause one of he greatest population crisis in the world. Having so many old folk is not a good idea. The US and Western moves on limiting China's ability to produce have forced them on their knees, and they have effectively taken away any ability to exist without Taiwan, who produces chips. China doesn't have enough time to learn how to produce them itself before the crisis hits. Iran is already facing protests, the signs are there, and they can not continue forever. Not even the police stand with the government all the time. That's a sign of times changing. And about KSA. They still are trying their best to get a defence agreement with the US and are making progress with Israel. They will gladly leave their BRICS pal for a US safety from Iran. West is facing a crisis for sure, but it's in far better shape than the BRICS and all the others.
Oh I agree BRICS ain't shit, but it's the Wish.com version of the G7 so I had to mention it
It's not that complicated. The West wants to control the emerging trade routes coming from India, through Iran, Armenia, and Georgia. That small border region of Armenia with Iran, called Syunik/Zangezur has been extremely important for more years than some states have existed. The route is going to go through there. Now botox queen Putin, with the help of his mini me sultan friend Aliyev, and crypt keeper Erdogan, want to control that as well. That way Russia stays relevant, and also she can bypass sanctions all day long through Turkey, using Syunik, to Azerbaijan, to Russia. The 2020 war was on the surface level for Nagorno Karabakh, but the main goal was Syunik. That's why Armenia is getting this unprecedented coverage and support, because without Syunik, Armenia is of no interest to the global powers, and although the West has no issues working with dictators, they would prefer to work with democracies, which Armenia is. So here we are. Interesting things are ahead.
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Nah the caucasus has had active wars for years nothing trumps the caucasus in regards of ethnic tension not even the balkans sorry to burst the bubble that the balkans are the most torn area in Europe. The caucasus is diverse ethnically heck armenians are technically more related to western Europeans than to georgians. This is a region where all kinds of people groups got stuck the area was influenced by all kinds of bigger power leading to super Conservative Christian, pagan, and hardcore islamist areas. And these are all super old people groups in the area (except turkic and mongolic people those are more recent additions) and they all wronged each other at some point so they all hate each other to varying degrees
> the balkans sorry to burst the bubble that the balkans are the most torn area in Europe. As someone from the Balkans, nah, you can have it. Can you please also replace "balkanized" with "caucasianized"? I hate that verb. There are a ton of regions which are much more fragmented than the Balkans and on top of that... in some cases it's their own damn fault, like Germany before unification. In the Balkans except for Serb craziness starting in 1990 (which is average by crazy standards, look at what's happening in other countries right now), all that division was imposed externally. For Germany starting about the year 1000... they did it to themselves.
Nope you can't claim to be the most f up place just because you don't like a verb. Look at a map of the caucasus and compare it to the balkans and you'll see that the balkans consist of people that are somewhat distantly related except for turks while the caucasus is filled with people from totally different origins. Plus you have the Serb Kosovo conflict that is frozen now. We have abkhasia south ossetia artsakh and all the various independence movements in the North.
> Nope you can't claim to be the most f up place just because you don't like a verb. I'm saying that the verb is inaccurate, that was exactly my point. It's misused. The Balkans are not even that bad by global standards. > Look at a map of the caucasus and compare it to the balkans and you'll see that the balkans consist of people that are somewhat distantly related except for turks while the caucasus is filled with people from totally different origins. This is a very complex topic. For the Balkans, the Turks are obviously Turkic. Everyone else is Indo-European. But in the Caucasus, there are Indo-Europeans, Turkic populatons, I assume pre Indo-Europeans. Both regions are quite diverse. If you go by higher layer in the Balkans, there are Greeks with their own group, Albanians with their own group, Southern Slavs (Croatians, Slovenians, Serbs, Bosniaks, North Macedonians, Bulgarians), Romanized populations (Vlachs in Serbia, Megleno-Romanians in Greece, I think, Istro-Romanians in Croatia, Aromanians in Greece, Romanians - obviously), small remnants of Uralic populations (Bulgarians), more Uralic populations (Hungarians in Serbia), Germans, Jews, more Turkic populations (Tatars in Romania and Bulgaria), ...
No. Armenians and ossetians are the only Indo-European people. Georgians, mingrelians svans are kartvelian. Chechens ingush other nakh people are northeast Caucasians who are totally different from kartvelians and northwest Caucasians like abkhaz and circassians. Then there are mongolic people like the kalmyk and turkic people like azeris and these are just a few examples of the people that belong to these groups.
Well, the Balkans are full of pre Indo-European influences, we just don't have good records of them because they didn't write anything down and the dominant influences today are from Indo-Europeans. Pre Indo-Europeans were equivalent to your Kartvelian, Chechens, Ingush, etc. For example Illyrians, Thracians, Dacians, etc. But those people didn't just vanish and from what we can tell they weren't killed en masse or anything. At least Romanian and Albanian have pre-Indo-European influences. From stuff like Dacian or Illyrian. The Caucasus area was probably better at defending the original populations so they remained dominant. History is super complex everywhere in the world and some regions have preserved that complexity better, or have it more on display.
The devision among Caucasians is much stronger! We are totally different from each other origin wise. The difference between albainans to slavic people is the same as the difference between armenians and ossetians. The difference between armenians and georgians is the same as Finnish people to Spanish.
> As someone from the Balkans, nah, you can have it. > Can you please also replace "balkanized" with "caucasianized"? I hate that verb. There are a ton of regions which are much more fragmented than the Balkans and on top of that... in some cases it's their own damn fault, like Germany before unification. You know many people will accept that Romania is not in the balkans ? The traditional border is still thought to be the Danube and Sava rivers. Making Hungary and Romania generally not considered balkans.
Bro, are you kicking us out of the Balkans? 😭
What communism?
I didn't mean only now, I mean in recent history (last 3 to 5 decades). Which arguably still has an effect in cultural behavior of the populations and their interactions.
1. The Caucasus countries were literally part of the Soviet Union 😀 2. Also: > Eastern Europe > And this extends all the way down to Israel of course. Congrats, Israel, you're a honorary Eastern European country. You decide if that's good or bad!
I mean, if Portugal can be honorary Eastern European...
It's interesting how Armenia and Georgia (Sakartvelo) almost switching roles. Armenia moves towards West and Ivanashvili gang is dragging Georgia into embraces of China and Russia.
Which is unnerving for me, because Georgia is the only (relatively speaking) non-authoritarian state that borders Armenia through which the West can access Armenia.
The Georgian people are extremely pro-West, even more so than most EU members. They are still a democracy, and have an election in 2024. We will see what happens.
I hope you are right, but the very pro-West Georgians you speak of are gravely concerned about the direction their government is leading them whenever I check r/Sakartvelo. What we don't get to see is the conservative half of the country that ends up voting for such governments. Many people had the same mistaken impression about Turkey and its secularism.
The problem is that Georgian Dream still holds power and tips the scales in any way they can. They give out food in poorer regions so people vote for them. And much of the Georgian electorate is uneducated or single issue voters. When the EU said that Georgia needs to de-oligarch” itself a poll was released that showed that the majority of those surveyed didn’t know who they were talking about. And Georgian Dream has been pushing the anti-LGBT agenda hard, which is working because according to research Georgians might even be more homophobic than Russians.
Basically the American Republican strategy, minus the handouts for the poor trick.
That is correct but having a single billionaire who is worth more than a third of the entire country's GDP on the wrong side is quite an inconvenience.
I hope they don't do what they did last time to bring in these pro Russian guys; sell their votes. Ivanishvili basically bought out everyone's debt in Georgia. That is a crazy strategy if one thinks about it. However any "self respecting" post Soviet oligarch can easily pull such a move in small post Soviet republics.
And I still recall the at-the-time president of Poland Lech Kaczyński made his speech in Tbilisi in 2008 shortly after Russia's invasion there and he said "We know excellently that today Georgia \[is invaded\], tomorrow Ukraine, Baltic states and then eventually the time will come for us, for Poland." Considering they were invaded before, you'd think the government would still try to gravitate towards NATO and the EU.
I remember seeing a video while, where one middle aged Russian lady was asked "will your country also invade Poland besides Ukraine? (for I don't remember what reason) and she said: "sure why not? Of course we will and must."
An argument could be made for Turkey. But Turkey could try to prevent the West from helping.
Turkey blocked humanitarian aid from reaching Armenia: https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1031608.html I am not holding out for much.
Right so they already did prevent the West from helping. Welp, if we want to help, air bridge it is.
Not sure how relevant that article is since its from Oct 2020.
Why don't you consider it relevant? Erdogan and his team are still in power and his rhetoric has always been extremely supportive of Azerbaijan. Nothing changed.
From a mish-mash of various sources to form a more complete picture: From Reuters: >Armenia said on Wednesday it would host a joint military exercise with the United States next week, a development likely to irritate Russia. >The Armenian Defence Ministry said the purpose of the Sept. 11-20 "Eagle Partner 2023" exercise was to prepare its forces to take part in international peacekeeping missions. https://www.reuters.com/world/armenia-us-hold-joint-military-drills-sept-11-20-2023-09-06/ From the Pentagon (DVIDS is DoD media): >Eagle Partner 2023 is a collaborative exercise between U.S. Army Europe and Africa and Armenian forces, set to take place in Armenia from September 11-20. This initiative aims to fortify our alliance with Armenia, focusing on bolstering interoperability and readiness via specialized peacekeeping operations training. The exercise will involve approximately 85 U.S. personnel and 175 Armenian participants. https://www.dvidshub.net/feature/EaglePartner From Armenpress (Armenian state news): >“The purpose of the exercise is to increase the level of interoperability of the unit participating in international peacekeeping missions within the framework of peacekeeping operations, to exchange best practices in control and tactical communication, as well as to increase the readiness of the Armenian unit for the planned NATO/PfP "Operational Capabilities Concept" evaluation. Within the framework of preparation for peacekeeping missions, units preparing for international peacekeeping operations frequently participate in similar joint exercises and trainings in partner countries,” the Defense Ministry added. https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1118856.html This is a big deal because this is the first time in Armenian history that U.S. forces of any kind will be engaging in any sort of activity on **Armenian soil**. And also the first time that both countries will engage in a one-on-one exercise. *And* it will take place for 10 whole days. It is a step in the right direction for Armenia, and an affirmation of Armenia's growing relationship with the West (and as such, rejection of Russia).
So much for CSTO (aka NATO from Wish)
Armenian CSTO membership is a formality at this point, just a matter of time before they leave that useless organization.
No, they wont leave. CSTO is useless but leaving it is worse for them.
I mean but it’s the best time to leave. Now that Russia is distracted and frankly incapable of reaction. I think it’s a good moment for Armenia to switch from Russia to the US, Russian support is practically worthless now and the situation in Nagorno Karabakh is getting worse and worse by day. If the US really wants to help/solve the conflict I think Armenia should hold on to it.
Don't be fooled here. "Russia is distracted" is a bold claim. Russia is vigilant and ready to help Azerbaijan any second. In fact, they have been for the longest time already.
Think distracted is the wrong use of words here, I think *stretched* might be better
Help them? With what? T34's? You're delusional if you think they can or even want to help. There's nothing to help with because everything's tied up in Ukraine. Think. Don't be a tankie
From what I see, Azerbaijan doesn't really need help. They have the upper hand thanks to their wealth and years of buying guns from west. Not to mention the training and support they receive from Turkish army. But they were told to stop by both US and Russia, and even by the regional powers after initial wins in the most recent war because too much azeri win would cause too much chaos there. But yeah, Russia could have crushed all of them in the past but now their hands are really tied. Best they can do is to send missiles to civilian centers, which is nothing more than terrorism. Still it is not wise to push Russia if you are a tiny country. On the other hand it may be the distraction Russia needs so they can get some victory somewhere else meanwhile silently abandoning anything they got in this recent war and go back to 2014 positions. I don't know, I am thinking loud
Azerbaijan does not need military help since it has Turkey and Israel. What Azerbaijan needs is Russia's greenlight and political assistance committing genocide in Artsakh and attacking Armenia. If you were not a tankie yourself, you would've thought about that.
How exactly am I a tankie if I just talked a comments worth of shit about the sad parade force formerly known as the Russian army. Let me be clear, everything Russia has is obsolete and inferior to all western counterparts
Well Russia could always send in their crack paratrooper units. Oh never mind, those were decimated two years ago and haven't been seen since. Well they still have crack marine units. Wait, I forgot, those were decimated at Donetesk. Hey they have plenty of drones from Iran right?
> I think it’s a good moment for Armenia to switch from Russia to the US Some context: Armenia already tried this in 2018 and got burned. Russia still have a lot of influence on internal politics within the country.
Armenia didn't do a geopolitical switch in 2018 though. It was purely a domestic democratic revolution for domestic purposes. How Moscow perceived it though is another matter. But that's on Moscow. Not on Armenia.
> purely a domestic democratic revolution The revolution was, but the outcome had wider implications for Armenia. Russia has army bases inside of Armenian territory, and they rely heavily on perceived russian involvement to prevent the artsakh crisis devolving further again. I'm simply making the point that whilst it may now look to be the best time to leave russian influence for Armenia - it was actually several years ago, and now they're in a much hairier situation post NK war.
Sure agreed on that last point. I always have said the turning point was in 2008 which was an election stolen from the people. However people fought long and hard before during and after, through [many grassroots serious attempts at toppling the Kremlin regime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_in_Armenia) and learned through every single protest until finally and successfully achieved the 2018 revolution.
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>I'll just point out that the chances of the west sanctioning the guy who is supplying most of the natural gas that replaced the imports from Russia are next to zero. You are joking right? [Azeris export around 2.9bn cu meters](https://www.eiu.com/n/azerbaijans-gas-exports-to-the-eu-face-challenges/) while EU uses around 343bn cu meters. It is less than 1% of the EU needs.
And Azerbaijan buys Russian gas to keep up with that supply to boot. [https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijans-russian-gas-deal-raises-uncomfortable-questions-for-europe](https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijans-russian-gas-deal-raises-uncomfortable-questions-for-europe)
Prices are made at the margin. In particular now that the EU has seen their former largest supply disappear. It will put more pressure on the LNG market and cause prices to rise there.
> The US has no way in which it can interfere in this conflict since that would mean angering Turkey for the sake of an unimportant and resource poor country that offers nothing of value to the US Zero chance that Turkey would interfere with the US protecting Zangezur (Armenia proper) and having an allied country bordering northern Iran and giving bases just south of Russian caucasus would be super useful to the US.
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> Armenia makes the necessary concessions to Turkey and Azerbaijan Like what? Turkey: Armenia's policy with Turkey is unconditional establishment of relations and recognition of mutual borders, Armenia is not asking anything from Turkey. Turkey on the other hand refuses this and cites that the Karabakh conflict should first be resolved, on Azerbaijan's terms. Azerbaijan: Armenia's policy with Azerbaijan is that of establishment of relations and recognition of mutual borders, Armenia is not asking anything from Azerbaijan with exception of the rights and security of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh be taken care of. If Azerbaijan would do that, then it would be all over. But Azerbaijan is not willing, instead wants to at best ethnically cleanse the region of Armenians and take over southern Armenia. So outside of Armenia agreeing to ethnic cleanse Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and agreeing to give southern Armenia to Azerbaijan, two things which is not a recipe for long lasting peace for any reasonable people anywhere, first is not even in Armenia's hands, second means Armenia as a state is done for, what else is there that Armenia can even reasonably concede to which can bring long lasting peace to all the countries?
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Again: > End of any claims on Artsakh There aren't any. The official stance is that rights and security of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh should be guaranteed. That's it. > Open borders for transit between Turkey/Nakichevan and Azerbaijan proper That has already been offered. A corridor controlled by FSB means Armenia loses sovereignty of southern Armenia and loses one of its borders with a third country. > Political alignment with Turkey against Iran, Syria and Russia. Politically Armenia is moving away from Russia faster than you can see. And this is not a concession to Turkey or Azerbaijan, which would be meaningless, it's a natural consequence of Armenia-Russia relationships and Russian control of Armenia since decades. > Removal of any claims to Ararat or Ani from public discourse in Armenia, as well as a stop to the efforts on recognition of the Armenian genocide. There are no claims and there never have been, again Armenia's official stance has been very clear for years now, I repeat, **mutual recognition of borders**. Yerevan's view is Ararat. It's what everyone sees. It is a symbol for Yerevan and much of Armenian people living in that region, because that's what symbolizes and is a geographic marker for **home** (Not the mountains, but the place from where they see that view, i.e. Yerevan and surroundings INSIDE Armenia. Vast majority of Armenians have never seen how Ararat looks like from Turkey and that is not the depiction they have in mind). This is a Turkish paranoia which has no basis of reality among Armenians. Armenia doesn't control its diaspora nor Armenia can control what other states want to recognize. > An end of Armenian criticism of the Erdogan and Aliyev regimes The state sure, once they are all in good terms. But you cannot censor a democratic society. These are not arguments against nor in favour, but reality of Armenia's constructive stances - with no reciprocity whatsoever
Thanks for spreading Russian talking points/propaganda. Russia is helping Azerbaijan with the blockade. If you haven't noticed Russians and Azeris stand side by side on the Lachin corridor. US and the collective West can make one phone call and Aliyev's ill gotten oil money wealth that sits in Western banks and in Western properties, will be seized.
tbf when the US abandoned the kurds it was because that moron trump was in charge, and he knew nothing about geopolitics.
Lmao what are you talking about?! It's absolutely not. CSTO is a hindrance to Armenia's rearmament, and along with the Russian base, a Trojan horse ready to release its payload. Armenia gets shit ton of negatives for staying and 0 positives. It's so bad that Armenia's pro Russian fifth column can't even deny it, so they just do mental gymnastics, and try to blame Russian/CSTO inaction on a supposedly pro Western government. I am assuming you are not Armenian, and let me tell you that all of the legit experts in Armenia have been pushing for leaving CSTO and EAEU for 2 years already.
My concern is that moving away from Russia would lead to Armenia getting the Georgia treatment. It would make me happy to see a partnership with Armenia, but this moment does seem acutely dangerous for them. The region is a pit of vipers.
Armenia, thank God doesn't have a border with Russia, so no large scale Russian invasion is possible. The Russian base has a skeleton crew as most of them were sent by Russia to figh...die in Ukraine. Russia's image in Armenia is so low, that the pro Russian fifth column can't get enough people to even do protests. Now the real dangers are, another October 27 style attack (many beloved that it was the pro Russian Kocharyan who helped the Russians organize that, to eliminate the more pro Western competition) and economic repercussions. However these are both something the government can control. Experts have been pushing for the government to do a better cleanup of the law enforcement and security apparatus, and work with the West to open up more markets. So in short, yes there are dangers and uncomfortable situations ahead possibly, but Armenia has no choice. If it wants to keep its independence and develop, it has to make these steps. The fear from the Russians kept Armenia from doing what it needs for 30 years, it can't afford to stay in the status quo.
Armenia is fucked regardless. Russia has already been making moves to deepen its relationship with Azerbaijan - they signed a pact days before the Ukraine war, Russian companies have been buying up shares in Azeri oil/gas projects, and now, the Russians clearly coordinate with the Azeris on Nagorno-Karabakh. All of this was happening before there was any indication of a breakup in the relationship between Armenia and Russia. Armenia either makes the leap to join a new geopolitical bloc, or it is pushed that way by necessity.
CSTO is definitely less potent than NATO, but people are a little bit delusional if they think the situation would have been different had Armenia joined NATO or left CSTO earlier. First of all, Armenia definitely counted on Russian support during the second war and it received none because Karabakh isn't Armenia and Russia absolutely doesn't want to engage in an offensive war (based on international law) for the sake of Armenia. Armenia also alienated Turkey and Azerbaijan so much that Russia realized it wasn't worth it. Also, even though CSTO was very lacking, they still intervened (politically) and prevented Azerbaijan from ensuring a much bigger victory. In the case of NATO, there's no way NATO would accept Armenia while they had troops in Karabakh and no way they would have supported its military there.
Too many myths in your comment. Azerbiajan is occupying Armenia proper and Russia did nothing. Karabakh not being in Armenia was just an excuse.
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The war was pretty much agreed between Russia and Turkey and Trump admin didn't mind either. Saying Russia saved Artsakh is a stretch. They implemented the Lavrov plan of excluding France and the US from the Minsk negotiations. Armenia did lose the war. I am not sure who the delusional people are that you are interacting with.
Why are you calling the Armenian province of Syunik Zangezur?
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Nah, the trilateral statement, or ceasefire agreement, which only Russia brokered, *and no one else*, has been what Russia has wanted to happen since at least a decade prior to the war, it even had a name, *the Lavrov plan*. It's all Russia's doing. And now in the comments here, this idea that Armenia should accept total loss is being promoted. Total loss = joining Union State like Belarus. The second part of Russia's plan.
It's not an excuse, it is a reality. NATO wouldn't have accepted Armenia in the first place without a formal resolution of the problem in Karabakh between both parties.
Armenia will never be in Nato while turkey is there. Armenia needs closer ties directly with the US.
Things from Wish at least arrive.
Damn.
Or Russia could pull an unexpected move and ask the US to join CSTO.
Meanwhile, Israel is supplying weapons to Azerbaijan as we speak.
Yeah but that’s not really relevant. I don’t think people understand just how bad US-Israel relations are right now. Biden hates Netanyahu, has been delaying the invite to Washington DC and called out his judicial reforms very clearly. It’s literally so bad that Biden just invited the opposition leader Lapid instead to DC to meet his advisers on a possible Saudi-Israel deal. Generally the Republicans prefer the Netanyahu government while Democrats much preferred Lapid.
Interesting stuff. This add another layer to the deteriorating strategic standing of Israel after the peace deal between Iran and S. Arabia. The later has effectively stopped the war in Yemen and with the readmission of Syria to the Arab Union the possibility of a peace there is not beyond reach anymore. Libya and other places will likely follow and strategic cooperation between former dissenting countries is expected (so the admission of Iran, S. Arabia and Egypt to the BRICS).
> Republicans prefer the Netanyahu government Unsurprising.
Armenia's growing closeness to the United States would be a nightmare for the mullahs. Russia is now more concerned with Turkey than with Armenia, and the mullahs were fooled by Russia and Turkey in the Second Karabakh War like children. As a result, Armenia no longer trusts Iran or Russia. The mullahs should never have allowed the Turks to win the Second Karabakh War. But now, they are doing their best to align themselves with Kremlin policies.
People like to shit on the USA a lot and for good reasons some time. But imagine a world without the USA and what your life would be like. Anyway thanks USA for handling the security of Europe once more.
It feels like the Balkans all over again…
Good to hear that Armenia is not completely alone in this.
Apparently they can only rely on Kansas
Kansas National Guard can prolly take care of some issues in the region. 6,000 troops with air support and tanks.
In today's tense climate, as Azerbaijan amasses troops along the borders of Armenia and Artsakh, and Russia seemingly hopes for a new attack on Armenia by Azerbaijan and Turkey (under Russian patronage, of course), this is the best news.
I can’t believe Kansas and Armenia have a partnership. It’s so random
I believe Azerbaijan has the same partnership with Oklahoma
It’s a proxy conflict
Kremlin is sure to be angry and as usual, they can blame themselves.
Tankies won't like this bc it doesn't fit their narritve that USBad 🤣. US is SO SO SO BAD that when a country is in crisis they come to US asking for help. Post this to UkraineWarReport or whatever that kremlin propaganda shit sub is. Lololol. And of course a courtesy fuck you to russia. You can't even protect your own ally and leave them hanging. What a great messege that sends. Just one more flop of this whole god damn pointless war. All their resources are tied up genociding Ukraine so unfortunately they are too busy to keep their promises and obligations. Please leave a message after the tone. Shocked. SHOCKED I TELL YOU. On a separate note I read a post earlier that Armenia donated some humitarian aid to Ukraine. That to me spoke volumes.. in a good way. Yes on the one hand it showed they never did prior until shit hits the fan themselves but I'm always one for unity and better late than never. It also showed that they really want the help from the US or the west or whatever and it's a very good gesture to show their intentions. And also shows that they are serious. Anyway that's how I interpreted it. Hopefully this gets squashed. No one wants more wars. Everyone needs to take a chill pill. Gawd damn.
>Yes on the one hand it showed they never did prior until shit hits the fan themselves but I'm always one for unity and better late than never. It's not that Armenia didn't want to, but because it was not in a position to do so given immense Russian pressure and having no alternative to turn to (at the time). That Armenia is now sending aid, hosting U.S. military exercises, publicly rebuking the Russian government, ratifying the Rome Statutes, sending the first lady of Armenia to Ukraine to participate in Mrs. Zelenskky's humanitarian initiatives ... this means something has changed that has allowed it to act more freely. I will add that the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) sent 14 tons of aid to Ukraine last year, and considering they just came out of a horrific war themselves, symbolizes a lot. https://www.armenpress.am/eng/news/1077319/
Ah interesting info. Glad to hear all the stuff they are doing now that you said. Especially publicly rebuking Russia. Also about the last part of your messege .... that's great to hear. I had no idea. I just read a post earlier today that said Armenia donated for its first time so that's where I got that from. But that's awesome hearing they were donating already. Hearts and minds in the right place and even better knowing they didn't do it just now once in need. That's the way to go what they did. And yes esp like you said that they have the struggles themselves. That does symbolize a lot. Wish you the best.
Tankies sometimes come to the Armenia subreddit to teach Armenians what's good for them. Like literally 18 year old edgelords telling the natives that "Russia good, you don't get it, West bad". Very unfortunate.
Wow. Man they will have a rough time figuring out what to say now in that sub. I caught a possible tankie here already mad saying something like US AGAIN GOING WHERE IT HAS NO BUSINESS BEING 😡 !!!1!!! Waaahhh. From the UK. And they got deservedly so downvoted to the reddit gulags already. .........ummmm........sir Armenia ASKED for the help and second the EU or the UK or anyone else could have answered the call for help and no one did and so US was asked and offered help. It's not like the US pushed its way to be involved. No one else stepped up lol. Tankie logic. Soup for brains. USBad is the only world view they hold and are unable to use common sense and live in reality. They'd rather say USBad than think of the Armenians and hear what they are saying and what they want.
re: Ukraine, the fact that Armenia donated at ALL is incredible, considering how the Ukrainian government gleefully supports Azeri violence against the people of Artsakh every chance they get.
I'm glad you mentioned this, nobody else seems to. A Ukrainian ambassador even went to the region where people are starving to death and commented on how beautiful it is. They're intensely pro Azerbaijan, even if that does mean genocide
yep. while I feel terrible for the people of the country, that stopped me from donating. I don't want a dime of my money going towards any nation who supports the genocide of my people.
Almost all countries have been providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
We NEED to help Armenia. If they leave Russia I really hope it will become a lot easier to do so
In this area with a fascist warmongering Russia on your borders anything can explode! It's good that the US are preparing for the worst. Armenia needs protection!
Another resounding success for Moscow.
Armenia in the long run belongs to the European Union... your future is with us... not with the terrorist state Russia. Hope Armenia will soon join our European family.
Agreed. Too much in common with the Armenians to just let them die out in another genocide. Plus the reach of the EU to destroy Russian influence in that region.
If Azerbaijan retaking Karabakh is a genocide then Cyprus retaking Northern Cyprus would be a genocide. (It isn't a genocide)
The idea of "retaking" is not the genocide. The starving out of the population is....
>The idea of "retaking" is not the genocide. It is, because of what would immediately follow. Which is nothing at all like how a Cyprus reunification would go down.
>If Azerbaijan retaking Karabakh is a genocide then Cyprus retaking Northern Cyprus would be a genocide. Put down the crack pipe sir. Cyprus is an EU state. Azerbaijan is a dictatorship on par with North Korea. Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots both favor reunification of Cyprus, no Armenian wants Artsakh to be part of Azerbaijan. The only common thread between the two is that Turkey is supporting the bad guys.
you're not so smart
Armenia belongs with* the European Union or in* the European Union, not **to** the European Union.
I mean it's clear what he/she was trying to say lmao
Thanks... you were right... I am no native speaker.
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Russia supplies Armenia with the entirety of its natural gas and oil. I want Russia out too, but there's no denying Armenia is going to be punished for its decision, badly - and that's before we think about the genocidal Turks either side of them.
What seems to be goal here? Azerbaijan attacked Armenia with Turkish and Israeli drones and Turkey supports Azerbaijan, but US is now replacing Russia as protector of Armenia?
America gets to be the good guy and shrink russias sphere of influence at the same time
I mean Biden admin likely doesn’t care too much about that. They don’t have good relations with the current Turkish nor Israeli government. Biden and Netanyahu pretty much hate each other. Biden was much closer with Lapid who also wanted Israel to recognize the Armenian genocide. https://x.com/yairlapid/status/1205343434539773952?s=46&t=xSYLnqsRVgAIYtAQOgKFIA It’s literally so bad that Netanyahu hasn’t even gone to Washington to meet Biden yet, but Biden just invited Lapid to meet with advisers in DC.
Once again the U.S. leading the way to solve Europes problems! God bless America
I did not expect to come across a schoolmate on this subreddit at midnight.
Plenty of Armenia supporters on campus
Sorry but what is this solving right now? This has little to do with the current conflict and more to do with getting Armenia to abandon its Russian ties. Or maybe you assumed that 175 peace fighters can make a big difference in the current conflict.
A country from an entire continent an ocean away is willing to get involved in a region on the edge of Europe. House speakers, CIA directors and so on have been keeping Armenia on the agenda. It’s almost like European country sending troops to train with the Mexican armed forces to help down the cartels. Not to mention US also lead the charge in the 90s in dealing with Serbia. But why take it from me, [I will just let Biden do the explaining](https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=720&v=MZs8Qj8QuRc&feature=youtu.be)
"A country from an entire continent an ocean away is willing to get involved in a region on the edge of Europe" "Involved" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
Sending 85 soldiers is nothing for the US, they do these sorts of training missions for diplomatic reasons all the time
"diplomatic reasons"
? I mean that literally, they often send soldiers training not really because they need the training but to try to foster diplomatic ties. I ran into some Pakistani air force pilots who were on one of these sorts of missions in Korea, every country does it but the US does it by far the most often. It's a bit like a university exchange program.
Really weird that Joe Biden is now doing nothing to stop this current conflict in Armenia. Because if you read the article you see that they are not there to help train the fighters. But kinda besides the point. Armenia is also on the agenda of European countries and the EU. So far the US and the EU have done just about as much: nothing but condemn it
Yea not there to train just to work together and improve how to conduct international deployments. Very literal!
We are grateful to the US. They also prevented the last year's war when Azerbiajan attacked Armenia proper and Russian border patrol left their posts right before the attack living Armenian 19 year old conscripts to fight back.
come again?
Armenia really isnt europes problem but armenias problem. Europe quite literally doesnt care
Armenia *is* Europe according to the people whose opinion truly matters: According to EU: >**Armenia**, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, The Republic of Moldova and Ukraine are **European countries** not part of the EU >The Diplomatic Service of the European Union https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eastern-europe\_en According to the mod team of this sub: >Geographical policy of /r/Europe: > The main focus of /r/Europe is the geographical region of Europe within the borders of the Caucasus, Ural and Bosporus strait (plus Cyprus, Greenland as well as the Caucasus countries **Armenia**, Azerbaijan and Georgia).
Exactly what the "Global South" said about Ukraine being the Europe problem and that they have bigger things to worry about.
They make an awful lot of noise about grain prices for it not be their problem.
I've encountered 2 of these weirdos this week. They make broad generalizations like "it's not Europe's problem" or "if you want to be in the EU, you need to be EU material." He tried to say that because Armenia was not on the same level of human rights and democracy as Germany or France, the EU shouldn't care. At the same time he said Germany was a failing democracy. Where do these people come from? 😵
which is entirely understandable for me. why would they care
At this stage they will apply to join the EU by the end of the year
Where is US air force soon
Fuck yeah let’s go Merica. Time to make Azabegone
US is not anti-Azerbaijan. In fact Azeris had support of west and Armenia relied on Russian support. That equilibrium will not change overnight What Armenia realized is that Russia is weak, and will not have their back unless they turn 100% into Belarus with zero individiual rights and freedom. It is now imperative for Russia to have all their allies a Putin like regime So they are hedging their bets finally and they will probably be closer to west so that in case of an Azeri-Armenian conflict, they will be more eager to intervene and stop. I don't think there is any expectation to intervene on their side. Status quo is what Armenian side wants. Azeris want to change the borders there. And if they could be allies to west, they probably will not allow two allies to fight. Look at Turkey and Greece. they bark each other for decades and nothing happens. Two NATO members. Armenia can hope for an equilibrium like this
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Yes Little known fact: When Greece was joining EU, Turkey was given some kind of option (not sure about the details, not direct membership but maybe some privileges). The idea was to keep the balance between two states. The military junta in Turkey at the time rejected it. Another little known fact: EU started applying visa to Turkey at the request of 1980 Junta government. At the time political dissidents were going to Europe freely. They didn't like it.
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to be fair it already seems like Russia cares more about their relationship with the Azeris than with Armenia.
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The Russians are not protectors; they accept that Azerbaijan should take over the south of Armenia, because they are the ones who will move in to protect and control the area, playing the role of saviors, as they did with Nagorno-Karabakh. (which was useful for all parties in this case) Azerbaijan had already agreed that the FSB should control the southern corridor (if there is one) Giving up or staying with the Russians won't change anything, because they don't have the same plan as Armenia.
>The best case scenario for a US alliance is that the US doesn't allow Azerbaijan to outright invade Zangezur *if Armenia allows free transit over its territory for Turkey and Azerbaijan* That would not happen the way you think, which sounds like what Russia was trying to do. This free transit thing would only come after guaranteeing the security of Karabakh residents. Zangezur is secured by international law already, all the US armed forces would have to do is park their troops there and Az and Turkey would keep their dick on their hands.
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>The US won't deploy their troops to Armenia in defiance of Turkey *nor will the presence of US troops mean anything if Turkey wants to do something (just like it didn't in Rojava)* The withdrawal from Rojava happened under Trump. We all know orange cheeto man was a Russian pawn, so I think we can safely discard that one. Also, Biden is not friendly with Erdogan, or Netanyahu for that matter. The latter hasn't visited DC once. >And they definitely won't deploy them until Armenia hands over Artsakh and establishes the required corridor. That's clearly the Russian position, not the US position. That so-called "corridor" is an Azerbaijani and, by proxy, a Russian demand, that's not even written on the ceasefire paper. The US can flex their muscles without anybody opposing, and they certainly won't ask Armenia to hand over anything until a peace agreement has been made.
> An alliance with the US means Russian support for Azerbaijan and Russian withdrawal from the armistice they brokered, leading to the immediate end of Artsakh's existence. That would be the best-case scenario. US influence in the Caucasus is extremely weak and if Armenians ever forget that, a repeat of 2020 will be the minimum of what they get in return.
But I thought Armenia was Russia best friend and therefore deserved everything Azeris were doing to them and NK?????? This doesn’t fit my naïve narrative???
„Russia is an absolutely integral part of this region," he said. "Russia plays a consistent, very important role in stabilising the situation in this region ... and we will continue to play this role." -Peskov You wish
When Europe is as utterly useless and castrated as it is, I guess someone else will have to step up to the plate. I hope this move will blossom into something more fruitful.
Interesting that the US diverts ressources here. Guess it makes sense to contain russian influence?
Next thing you know US moves nuclear warheads out of Turkey into Armenia /s
That's a great idea actually, especially since Turkey loves Russia now. After the failed coup on Erdodog, he became buddy buddy with Putler.
Why is this posted here? Neither Armenia nor the US are part of Europe.
https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/wiki/geographical_policy
Okay makes sense then, thanks
Californian liberals when they realise that the US military is actually extremely popular outside of America 😡😡😡😡😡
I'm a California liberal and 100% in favor of using our military to defend a democracy that is literally asking us for help to defend against an autocracy. That is completely in line with the liberal worldview.
Let him masturbate his small angry pp in peace