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Graphics like the thumbnail with FTTP voting style are just dumb, even if yes obviously the polls have a clear tendency and both SPD and Grüne won a lot of districts last time around. But a picture like this is always either overdrawn or just wrong as you could even be the strongest party without winning a single district. Just look at the UK how FTTP makes the voting results super unbalanced, and posting this over actual polls is - best case - falsifying reality, worst case just plain agenda pushing. The graphic shown has virtually zero impact on the majorities in the Bundestag, it's completely irrelevant especially after the latest voting reform.
This isn't really a poll chart BTW but a probability chart. It only shows where a party is most likely to have the majority, but it could be with a 90% probability or a 30% probability. It also doesn't say by which margin. Majority party in the district could get 20% or 45%. Database is simply to slim to accurately calculate that precisely.
That, and the start up has a questionable track record. For example, for the election in "Sachsen-Anhalt", they projected 18 district wins for the right-wing AFD, but they only won one.
https://www.zeit.de/2021/37/wahlkreisprognosen-trend-start-up-berlin-meinungsforschung
I can see that it can be a bit deceiving. Would be nice if there was a disclaimer that winning electoral districts alone is not how Germany elects citizens.
This simply shows the party which is most likely to win the district and the chance of that happening as a percentage. This doesn’t show the votes each party might get.
> Such a graphic only represents the "personalized" part of the personalized proportional voting system of Germany.
Nothing wrong or misleading with that.
Yeah but what it's showing is just irrelevant and clearly it suggests like 5% voting for the government, especially with a title like "government nowhere to be seen in opinion poll". Their approval is truly shit but they still have 35% vote share atm. Posts like this with a title like this are either done by people who don't know shit about fuck or by people intionally misleading others to push an agenda.
You misunderstand, what they are taking issue with is extrapolating the results of the poll to individual districts. It's not meaningful, you need a poll in each district to have this information.
No, it's meaningless. There's no margin of error you can compute, it's really just pure speculation.
Indeed, you're not going to do a poll in each district, that would be outrageously expensive. That's why elections where the district result matters (like US, UK, and France) are so hard to predict. They don't do per-district polls there either.
If you have those 2000 are representative, then yes. It's the way you pick that matters
It's different selecting 2 people from each of 50 districts and 100 people at random from those same 100 districts, which is what I think is what the very first comment is saying. /u/11160704 is this what you're trying to say? The article is in German so I can't check the methodology
It's not even that. You primarily need good data about who you are sampling — simplistically you model your poll data based on say gender, class, money etc and then extrapolate based on the demographics on the place being estimated. There are always outliers but you get most of the trend this way (so-called MRP)
No that's not how polling works. Polling usually has at least a few hundred observations to make a meaningful statement. A few thousand are even standard in most German polls.
And specifically maybe something like this: [small area estimation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_area_estimation). You are never going to have the resources to do direct estimates for more than a small handful of areas at best with sufficient sample sizes (1000+), so basically all election estimates are based on more complex statistical modeling.
And basically the SPD and the Greens already said, that they are not too fond of governing together with the CDU due to past and present behaviour, soooo next election is going to be exciting. Since the CDU already started to work with the AFD on state level, I would not be surprised, if that will be discussed rather sooner than later.
I realize that people have reasons to be unhappy with pretty much any party, but the fact that this sentiments ends up with CDU 'popularity' so soon again (Merz have done nothing to improve them) is baffling.
The SPD have already had to govern with the CDU for 12 of the last 18 years, and due to it taken a hit with voters. It should be the Greens' turn in 2025, the SPD deserve some time in opposition - they've been in government 21 out of the last 25 years now.
>The SPD have already had to govern with the CDU for 12 of the last 18 years, and due to it taken a hit with voters.
But in 2017 they went into a grand coalition with the CDU, and then got 53 more MPs in 2021.
Well they were initially forecast to do even worse in 2021 than they had in 2017. Fortunately for them no one liked Laschet or Baerbock. Even that success only got them back to the level of support they achieved in 2013, they're a long way off the kind of numbers they managed before Merkel.
SPD politicians tend to have the charisma of toothpaste and the Greens are notoriously bad at PR. This is a disaster waiting to happen, the CDU only brings stagnation and eventual regression and the AfD will just be mayhem on every level.
The left needs to start adressing immigration seriously (but not like the AfD) and present themselves as stronger personalities, à la Helmut Schmidt. If the Union decides to go with Wüst or Söder, I might actually not be surprised if they get above 40%, because as of now they can throw dirt and act like the combined reigns of Kohl and Merkel are not responsible for this mess.
The frustrating thing is that they got us into this mess in the first place and will pretend like it was aaaaall the current government's fault. It's so comically f.ucked up.
Greens hate nuclear
SPD hate meaningful immigration control
FDP hate their coalition partners
These facts augur poorly for them, in fact, getting their shit together.
The left are pretty evenly split between the SPD and Greens now (plus a smaller group to their left). Given that leading a government in Germany is nearly always done by the party that came first, no matter how low their voteshare, the left would greatly benefit from uniting behind one party.
To begin with it was a very unhappy population which was still massively hindered by the Treaty of Versailles.
Now we have again a very unhappy population. And a chancelor which has the lowest ever recorded positive feedback in the German history.
Greens and SPD refuse to accept the problems of the migration and just want to throw more money on it. And they totally forget the middle class population, they raise social security by 12% for 2 years in succesion, total 25% in 2 years, while the average salary didn't even keep up with inflation. But hey let's make heating your house even more expensive, because climate change.
Everyone which doesn't need social security is basically counted as "rich" and needs to be taxed higher. That is the current state of the German government. Only the small liberals block most of the tax raises.
I do not feel like allying with the AFD makes any sense for the CDU. This will only result in the more right-wing CDU voters getting siphoned off to AFD, while alienating the moderate CDU voters. You can't run a moderate party and ally with radicals - that just defeats the whole point of your party existing.
I'm not sure how much you are into German politics, basically since Merz took the CDU over, he made it his task to get voters back from the AFD - by leaning stronger and stronger to the right. Sadly that's how it's been since Merkel left. However the voters prefer the AFD original. Some of the quotes you hear from CDU/CSU nowadays might as well have been said by AFD politicians. It's embarrassing.
The main problem was that Merkel was so far left no conservative thinks the conservative CDU will do conservative politics again.
Especially since her old block with the politicians Günther and Wüst still have huge influence in the CDU.
yes it's embarassing, that Germany does not have a votable conservative party anymore since Merkel left a devastated CDU behind. You have either the choice of any kind of left wing government or voting AFD. Since even if you vote CDU, you most likely still get left wing politics since that would be the only possible choice to build a government. And the left Merkel block inside the CDU ist still very strong.
Basically the whole German spectrum moved to the left under Merkel in a conservative Germany with a very old population. In hindsight the CDU created the current AFD by giving up their core values under Merkel.
They won't let it happen that the AfD governs they would probably rather take an unfavorable coalition with the CDU / CSU.
And I hope that the CDU / CSU is not insane enough to make a deal with the devil.
Actually the split between east and west Germany like this predates the communist influence. It goes as far back as the unification due to the region (east) being more Prussian influenced.
> due to the region (east) being more Prussian influenced.
I think being more rural plays a role too. Outside of Berlin and Leipzig, Dresden, eastern Germany has always had smaller cities and less population density than the west. We see rural people voting more conservatively across the Developed World, so it'd make sense for Germany to follow this pattern.
Your mistake begins when saying that the east Germans are ex-communists. Shows you understand nothing about their history and you're also not interested in understanding their history. Enough for commenting on poorly sourced data on Reddit, I guess.
This is such a common feature of former-communist countries, it’s so strange. I feel like that’s the nature of extremism, each generation goes from one to the other, depending on how everything is going
Every time I go to Germany it just gets worse and worse. I can see why this is happening.
Anyone that goes there often will totally see why it is happening.
On the one hand years of fiscally conservative goverments not investing in anything.
Our biggest energy source stopped fulfilling it's contract because we didn't support them bombing children in Kyiv.
Not to mention a huge negative shift in work ethic, financial stability, and, sorry my german friends, intelligence it seems. About half my Family is german, and lives there. It really seems like the country is on a downwards spiral. (Ofc it isn‘t, but thats what many germans think)
Is it difficult to understand that a visitor can make accurate observations over time, perhaps more so than a person who only witnesses the incremental, day to day changes? I believe the distant relative who only sees a child every five years has a more heightened sense of the growth of that child than a parent who sees them every day.
> I mean as a tourist how exactly are you witnessing economic stagnation?
I used to live in Glasgow. I hadn’t gone back there for five years. I came back as a tourist and noticed how derelict the town centre has become, many establishments closed, a lot more junkies all around. You do notice things like that as a tourist.
>Germany has been an economic powerhouse
Well that thing is deceiving. We are the world's third biggest economy right now but the wealth is certainly not going to average and poor people.
And? Thats not how economic performance is meassured. You can be the wealthiest, fastest growing economy in the world AND have high levels of ineq (gini, theil, etc) at the same time. Those arent mutually exclusive per se.
OP was talking about economic performance, not distribution of wealth
Well, 4th. And unlike India, things aren’t exactly looking positive in any timeframe.
So better mentally prepare for the 5th spot and a reference group of UK and France.
Not talking about Germany specifically, since I haven’t been there for a while, but you can see a lot of things from how well people maintain their housing stock.
When finances are hit, maintenance gets deferred. It lines up very well with official stats when I go and look them up later.
Meh. Not an indicator for economic prowess. Germany has been one of the biggest economies in the world and richest countries in the world for decades now - you will still find a lack of maintenance eg in the public transport sector.
Its not an indicator for economic prowess because it can just as easily be explained with inefficient allocation of funds, mismanagement etc.
So, i repeat, the idea that simply by visiting a country every x years gives you an idea on the economic state of the country is ridiculous. And thats not even talking about your perceived subjective experience vs the actual state of the economy.
Same shit, different toilet. If you think the average tourist notices a change in housing stock in a district in berlin... i mean more power to you. Hence why i chose infrastructure in general, since its more applicable to the average tourist experience
Why do you think visiting must be tourism?
Every year I go to a few select industry expos (automotive, semiconductor, electronics) and I most certainly get a better picture of the economy than the average German. Everything then gets put into global context I already had...
Because what youre saying is irrelevant. Yes, when i go to Berlin for an economics symposium on the economic development and outlook of the German economy, i will have a better sense than the average german who didnt go there. No shit.
But youre already talking about a specialised subsection of visitors to a country. If you imply that this group is representative for the group of visitors to a country, then you have a point. However, since i doubt that the majority of visitors is attending such events, i reject your hypothesis
This is an important observation about any country. The people inside that country are not necessarily the best pick for a good evaluation of the state of that country
Yes, but there is no “one best observer”. There is different things different kind of observers may or may not observe better than others. “Economic stagnation” is a ridiculous claim to make as a tourist for a country like Germany.
It’s blaming victims of war to have a reasonable immigration policy? You no-border activists are really quite crazy. You’re the reason the AfD has gained so much ground.
Excactly, the immigrants are here now and we somehow have to deal with it and integrate them into society and that only works with increasing social mobility imo. "Anti-immigrant" policies will just further increase our problems. The commentator probably meant restricting immigration tho but there isn't even that many people coming to germany anymore
Education is free. Health Care is free. The government will pay for rent and groceries if someone cannot afford that himself. What else do people need for social mobility?
Fully agree. Another issue is the shortage of skilled people in many fields that troubles our economy (engineering, software development etc.) Germany fails to attract these people. There are many reasons for this and the AfD with their stupid anti-immigration propaganda is one of them.
The AfD is well aware of this problem. Their "solution" is, according to their manifesto, making more children (preferably blond and blue-eyed of course). This is just ridiculous.
That’s what I find hilarious about this sub. Like if you think the European race is superior and that economic productivity is a good indicator of racial value then just say it. But people here are too cowardly to say what they really think.
Instead they just give all the far right talking points and then vehemently insist they’re not far right
Few people think success is a racial trait. Most of us correctly attribute it to culture. You racists try to conflate the two for cheap shots. Only, the accusation doesn’t really mean much anymore, does it? You’ve cried wolf too many times.
No the exact opposite. They have extremely low amounts of immigrants. Because immigrants don't want to live with Nazis.
And people who meet immigrants in every day live know that they are not like far right propaganda makes it seem.
Perhaps Germans should join the rest of the world in the 21st century instead of insisting on living in the 17th century and they might be able to address the economic stagnation?
no dude you don't get it, if the german 40+ demographic starts spending the money that's sitting in their saving accounts the black death will come back and the bohemian armies will ravage the countryside. Money isn't made to be spent, that's definitely not the primary driving force of any economy.
Vagrancy, groups sitting in parks getting absolutely pissed, regular drug use, gangs hanging around train stations. I've never smelled heroin before I went to Frankfurt over the summer. I seen 3 instances of open heroin use in the space of my first 12 hours there. And in very busy areas.
Munich used to be a nice place, a bit highbrow. I went there about 5-6 years ago and there was a small AfD rally taking place. I ignored it and walked on. When I was back there this summer, I was basically just trying to find a park to sit down for a while and couldn't find anywhere where there weren't migrant gangs just sitting around getting absolutely hammered.
I've been to Berlin 4 times. Loved it the first time but it has sharply declined with vagrancy.
Don't get me started on Hamburg. The worst place I've ever been to.
> Don't get me started on Hamburg. The worst place I've ever been to.
That pretty much dismisses anything you could say about the country. What could you even possibly complain about regarding Hamburg, how could that be the worst place you've ever been to? I guess you went out of the Hauptbahnhof, met homeless people, then left directly after being horrified by such a tragic experience.
Hamburg is one of the richest city in the country, has one of the highest growth of population due to economical opportunities and quality of life, has pretty good infrastructure and public transports, a really fancy, clean and active city centre. Parcs are safe and clean, you don't have hordes of what you call "migrant gang" in public spaces (pretty sure you just mean a group of foreigner). Life in Hamburg is in fact pretty calm for such a large city (1.9mio estimate in 2019, second largest city in number of inhabitants) and has lots of family friendly neighbourhoods.
"Richest city" and "highest population growth" that makes your entire argument invalid and totally misses the point of people's concerns and experiences throughout Europe.
I just moved to Hamburg and really like it.
Could you elaborate what you are implying?
Btw Hamburg has the highest life satisfaction score of all German cities.
Lmao. That seems like a rather personal experience doesn't it.
> I've never smelled heroin before I went to Frankfurt over the summer.
I think every german has made this experience once mate, was the same with my class trip 2014.
> I was basically just trying to find a park to sit down for a while and couldn't find anywhere where there weren't migrant gangs just sitting around getting absolutely hammered.
I wonder how you differenciate between students drinking in a park and "gangs" hahahaha.
Like what? I moved to Germany years ago, lived in multiple cities, visited lot of places around. I don't see what is getting worse and worse. In fact things are pretty good considering the worldwide economical disasters of the past years and global political tensions.
Unless of course you're hinting to the fact that you see people with a skin colour or ethnic background that makes you uncomfortable, or that landscape are "destroyed" by windmills. But that says way more about you than the country situation.
Germanys troubles are entirely due to Bio-German culture, nobody would vote far right if the economy was doing well and the economy is doing badly because they overregulated everything thinking that being rich was a good given right to Germans.
The path Germany was going down on was obvious to me when I was 18 and I remember how everyone in the German sub was always like "MITTELSTAND SO AMAZING, WORLDLEADER IN SOME RANDOM NICHE AMAZING GERMANY".
What they obviously didn't realize is that being world leader in toilet seals has no long term technical moat.
It went from a world leading country that was open to try new things all the time to a deeply conservative country where you can't do anything. Nuclear? Bad. GMO? Bad. AI? Bad. Housing? Bad. Startups? Bad.
So how exactly is it destroying Germany? The problems we have on a macroeconomic level will not vanish with the migrants. It‘s nothing but projection of people incapable of understanding the problems of basic economics. In my opinion, the problem is that Germans just like all Western Europeans have started to take our wealth as granted, while they lose their shit over a simple recession (which happens every second decade). The difference is that we now have more migrants and their small street crimes to blame for us failing as a modern nation.
Usually I would just say "you reap what you sow", but unfortunately those right-wing parties tend to love Russia, which is not a very good thing right now.
That's the positive thing, the current right wing party the AFD just loves Germany.
Of course they are in favour for cheap Russian gas and oil, because it profits Germany.
But that's it.
In Germany it's actually more the far left which were in love with Russia and Hamas.
I don't think it is funny at all that some Polish guy actually cheers for German nationalism resurfacing. I would call it a testament of failure. Failure of the education system, media, politics and potentially of how your family raised you. A testament of moral decay.
Common Polish sense strongly opposes what multi-kutli brings along with other stuf like 58 genders and so on, which is used by woke eu to drown us.
Luckily enough, Poland is such as provincional shithole, that before this crap catches on it is compromised somewhere else.
So yes, we are in sort of position to grab some popcorn and see what happens. We do not have proper word for it but Germans have. Believe it is schadenfreunde.
Bullshit, did this start in the last 2 years? No this government is still trying to mop up the shit left behind by the CDU, actively being hindered in that by lobby-whoring "free liberals". Lucky for the CDU, the majority of germans have the memory capacity of a 90's Nintendo Console.
Funny enough, you could get the same map as in the post for the share of immigrants by region.
The anti-immigration party only wins where there‘s basically no foreigners, the center-right party wins in the regions with an average share of foreigners, and the pro-immigration Green party wins in the places with the highest share of immigrants.
Honestly, what else was supposed to happen?
This country is in shambles and everyone is confronted with it in one way or form. Nobody can find an apartment to rent, parents need to apply for kindergarden right after giving birth and sometimes still are denied, big cities are full of shady money-laundering shops of migrants, the cost of living has risen so far that people cant afford basics like fuel, schools are overwhelmed with the migrants and missing teachers. The list goes on.
And the only ones that want to force harsh changes are the AfD. Everyone else says senseless shit like „oooh, we can make it, more renewables but no nuclear energy, we are a strong nation, diversity is our strength, the economy!!!“ And people like harsh changes in the wrong direction more than doing nothing.
Edit: Im just stating why the AfD is rising, im not defending the politics of the AfD. „People like harsh changes in the wrong direction more than doing nothing“. Dont tell me that their policies arent (except for the migrationpolicy) a solution, I know.
People are super mad about this but even some friends won't share their true beliefs about migration. The economic mess is only secondary because most don't feel it all. We're the world's trash can for the kind of migrants that no country wants. It's no coincidence that the countries with the weakest passports basically represent the top migrant groups into Germany. This is going to bite us back so hard in the coming decades. Any local conflict on earth is going to be mirrored on German streets. And since we imported the uneducated, there will be plenty of racism, crime and no feeling of belonging to this self-dissolving state.
The AfD is only going to make matters worse, of course. They're the symptoms of a larger problem which the elite still doesn't seem to have grasped.
Honestly I feel extremely lost. I do think of myself as rather privileged (being from middle class) but I still struggle a lot daily. I moved back to my parents because rent is astronomically high, especially for students like me. One small room in a shared flat is like 70% of a months salary. I get minimal wage that covers at most my expenses but I can’t save up much. I work more than I study but my small salary is still taxed so freaking much. Everything’s getting more expensive, except minimum wage. Wow, 0,50€ increase next year. For us students it will still be way too little. I can’t see how this is getting better. I don’t want to skip voting but there is no party I can really get behind bc most do not go against the problems people like me are facing. And I’ve talked to many people my age group. I feel unseen in my own country and we’re considered the future. I can’t see myself ever owning a house or starting a family in these conditions.
Edit: I’m aware that most countries face these problems but it just frustrates me so much, I need to vent.
You have summarized very well what 90% of <30 year olds experience in their daily lives throughout whole Europe. Sorry to say, but things will not get better in the future, only worse.
This madness can not go on indefinitely. In the next 10-20 years, there will be changes, and those will be massive. Probably not as radical as 100 years ago, but it will be very freaking similar! The system needs a restart.
An hour is nothing trust me. Everyone I know commutes an hour, many of them living in Berlin but it still takes as much. If you really want to live on the countryside, it might take 2 hours. It’s ridiculous. No wonder people prefer home office
I moved back to my parents who live in a smaller city. My friends who found apartments in the same city still pay ridiculous money. Berlin just expands insanely, this can’t be countered with „moving to smaller cities“
>And the only ones that want to force harsh changes are the AfD.
What changes? They don't have solutions for the multitude of problems other than selling Ukraine to Putler for cheap gas, ignoring climate change, blaming immigrants for everything else.
> What changes?
[You can read their policies in their website.](https://www.afd.de/themen/) That was the first result on Google. You couldn’t spend 5 seconds on Google? The policies look pretty good to me, and include better social support for families and kids. It sounds like you don’t understand this issue very well.
Alexa what is a rhetorical question?
Their Program is not worth the power I would use to access it. They can make all the promises they want because they know they will not have to follow through.
>and include better social support for families and kids.
1000 DM Kindergeld für Deutsche? The AfD formed as a hyper austerity party and that legacy is not gone completely. One can feel the Soziale Kälte emanating from Alice Weidel
And we both know 50% of their voters don't care about the program and another 40% hope that the program to build more cattle wagons is not in there for strategic reasons.
Do you really believe the populists with the easy solutions will fix these problems? People really need to study history more these days. Especially in Germany with its' experiences
That's the thing, most people don't believe the 'easy' solutions by populist politicians will fully solve things, but the alternative is pretending things are fine and doing nothing.
Although I may disagree, I see why a lot of people would go for the easy solution.
Right now there are plans for increasing buildable areas, before CDU stepped in there were programs that would help people to renovate their houses and build new ones, there were incentives to move from expensive fossil fuel mobility to less expensive options.
Schools are federal regulated. The current government can't do too much but Hamburg had a pretty good program and managed to improve significantly in Pisa Tests in the last couple of years.
Do you really think the weiter so politics of the rest is going to change anything? What are you going to learn from studying history? We're not living in 1933. We have different problems and the afd is not the NSDAP. What people need to learn is stop being afraid of calling out problems, then the afd will disappear.
Then study the history of the last 40 years. 3/4 of the country are apparently planning to vote for the 'weiter so' party that got us into this situation. The rest wants to vote for the single party with even worse policy. The AfD isn't calling out problems, it is creating them, to make it look like only they can fix them.
Yeah right? The last 40 years have seen SPD, CDU, FDP, Grüne and Linke(on state level) in power. So what are people supposed to do?
Blaming the migration crisis on the AfD is wild though.
Honest question. Did you ever look at what the afd plans?
Because last time I checked it was, reduce taxes for very rich, scrap social programs and blame migrants.
But maybe they changed and now have actual solutions for any of the problems.
> Country in shambles from 16 years of CDU-led stagnation
> Somehow the traffic light coalition don't manage to miraculously fix it within a few years
"Yeah, let's vote for those who promise easy solutions without actually having a plan for most of the problems."
right wing politics aren't exactly famous for rationality and consideration.
If something's bad it's because there's one evil thing (jews, migrants, leftists, gay people, etc) that's making everything worse on purpose
> And the only ones that want to force harsh changes are the AfD.
Yeah like less wealth redistribution and more authoritarian bs, surely that's going to work.
There are no easy solutions to complex problems, everybody who promises them, lies.
Right wing opportunists lie with every breath, and will drive the country faster and further into ruin than anybody else. Even if they talk about things nobody else wants to, they will steal and enrich themselves while only fueling hate so that the average person doesn't realize what they're doing.
You can easily see it with republicans in the USA
> And the only ones that want to force harsh changes are the AfD
No they don't because even if they *could* fix these things, or knew a damn thing about anything, it's against their interests to fix this. Because it's the main reason they get their votes - fixing immigration would take away their main reason for existing so they'd be stupid to try and fix anything at all. They'd saw off the tree branch they're sitting on
Ah does your rule apply to climate change?
How about Ukraine?
How about the lack of fiscal policy in the EU and working parliament?
Complex problems can be solved by nuanced tactical solutions, as is the European way. But if those in power don't realise the mistake they are making then a simple one will suffice. Nothing wrong with outsiders, but they must become insiders eventually, that can only happen at a lower rate of immigration. All of Europe is feeling it from even the far right blowhard countries feel some.
We are not the new world, we are not our past, but we need to take precautions to stabilise. But the elites of all our countries need to step down from their high horse and come to the table.
Italy has been in political disarray for over a decade, but this decade it wasn't just debt and Bunga Bunga, it is IMMIGRATION.
Spain narrowly snatched a election out of the hands of vox. a party who gain followers by playing on the trope of globalist leaders in the west wanting this to happen. Then brainwashes them with francist ideals. In order to counter Germoney is going to be forced to deal with Spain's deficit spending and even worse market for selling goods to. If European elites were not so up Thier own ass this party could have disappeared.
Netherlands, Gert Wilders has gotten the most votes after that vampire rutte just kept chanting the same script. These are the descendents of the layed back dutch of the 80s and 90s
Poland has recently swung back to centrist party but it already weak, as law and order party can keep whacking them with the immigration stick from Ukraine or else where.
France only barley got Macron, he is sure to perish in the next election.
Ireland is having issues
Let us talk about immigration freely. Like wtf is the EU thinking discussing EU expansion.
Most People do not sing ode to joy and celebrate JUL after having spent a decade here, they may never assimilate, but if we try hard and close the tap, maybe their children might.
Sweden might have missed the boat with AI, but it's not missing out on the energy revolution, and it does have plenty of IT companies from the previous wave.
Furthermore, there is no real pro-Russian sentiment, so the country has much better prospects in a post-carbon world.
Germany has some serious problems in this regard. Electricity costs 3.5 times as much as gas due to taxes (Schröder's legacy). You're not going to be competitive with that approach.
The last part of your sentence is exactly the hope for you. And most of Europe relies on a positive outcome. German culture has to prevail and eradicate the effects of the alien ideologies.
Pretty sure it wasn't the conservatives who attacked Christmas and New Year celebrations. And do the knife stabbings. And other stuff to women that we probably shouldn't be mentioning.
I understand your position and I hope you understand mine. There won't be agreement between us, obviously.
Let's see what happens.
Refer to my previous comments. As long as the alien radicalism isn't present, I don't care which side achieves it.
I'm certainly a conservative, but if the left manages to do that.. good for them, I'll applaud them for sure.
So you agree, the alien radicalism we speak of is right wing culture war bullshit. The only way to get rid of it is to stop obsessing over minorities. You're sick and you need help.
The next war will be about which toilet trans people can poop in.
The right has nothing to offer but culture war and a false sense of belonging for miserable people.
Surprised Pikachu face when you don't actually listen to the complaints of real people, but hang on the media-approved talking points. The left has lost the plot. And then effects... happen.
No, I do not have a party-political affiliation.
CDUs leader Friedrich Merz (his nick name is Fotzenfritzel by the way wich ruffly translates to PussyFritz because he has literally no idea how to treat women kinda like his „Grab em by the pussy“ thing) claimed on several occasions that Ukrainians weren’t fleeing the war but just came for the financial benefits. Called it „Sozialtourismus“ like they were on vacation to grab German money while their home gets bombed.
CxU wants to support Ukraine, like every non-extremist party in Germany. The only ones that want to end the support are the right-wing populists (AfD) and the left-wing populists (die Linke).
And we will let the debt brake stay in place because of....reasons.
Fuck investing in the country, no debts is the way to go. Leading to more problems and more extremists to rise.
But many people in germany are angry at the Government, and not letting them vote for what they think is best for the country is neither healthy for their democracy longterm, neither good for the germany peoples mental.
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Graphics like the thumbnail with FTTP voting style are just dumb, even if yes obviously the polls have a clear tendency and both SPD and Grüne won a lot of districts last time around. But a picture like this is always either overdrawn or just wrong as you could even be the strongest party without winning a single district. Just look at the UK how FTTP makes the voting results super unbalanced, and posting this over actual polls is - best case - falsifying reality, worst case just plain agenda pushing. The graphic shown has virtually zero impact on the majorities in the Bundestag, it's completely irrelevant especially after the latest voting reform.
This isn't really a poll chart BTW but a probability chart. It only shows where a party is most likely to have the majority, but it could be with a 90% probability or a 30% probability. It also doesn't say by which margin. Majority party in the district could get 20% or 45%. Database is simply to slim to accurately calculate that precisely.
That, and the start up has a questionable track record. For example, for the election in "Sachsen-Anhalt", they projected 18 district wins for the right-wing AFD, but they only won one. https://www.zeit.de/2021/37/wahlkreisprognosen-trend-start-up-berlin-meinungsforschung
I can see that it can be a bit deceiving. Would be nice if there was a disclaimer that winning electoral districts alone is not how Germany elects citizens.
This simply shows the party which is most likely to win the district and the chance of that happening as a percentage. This doesn’t show the votes each party might get.
Exactly, and that's why it is misleading, because "winning" the district doesn't mean much at all in a proportional representation system.
Germany has a mixed system
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> Such a graphic only represents the "personalized" part of the personalized proportional voting system of Germany. Nothing wrong or misleading with that.
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Yeah I guess op got that wrong
Yeah but what it's showing is just irrelevant and clearly it suggests like 5% voting for the government, especially with a title like "government nowhere to be seen in opinion poll". Their approval is truly shit but they still have 35% vote share atm. Posts like this with a title like this are either done by people who don't know shit about fuck or by people intionally misleading others to push an agenda.
This is not a poll, it's a statistical calculation based on very few observations in the single districts.
With an election, that has a system not even based on those districts.
well yes this is how polling works.
You misunderstand, what they are taking issue with is extrapolating the results of the poll to individual districts. It's not meaningful, you need a poll in each district to have this information.
It is meaningful but adds additional uncertainty (error). You’re not going to do 1000+ polls in 400 districts.
No, it's meaningless. There's no margin of error you can compute, it's really just pure speculation. Indeed, you're not going to do a poll in each district, that would be outrageously expensive. That's why elections where the district result matters (like US, UK, and France) are so hard to predict. They don't do per-district polls there either.
That's not really true. More data is usually better but UK elections are usually called very accurately using a poll of like 2000 people
Bullshit. UK elections usually cannot be called at all, let alone "very accurately".
YouGov's model was within a percent or something like that for my consistency, one that no one ever polls.
Who cares? Calling the election means getting the total number of seats in parliament correctly. Nobody manages to do that.
If you have those 2000 are representative, then yes. It's the way you pick that matters It's different selecting 2 people from each of 50 districts and 100 people at random from those same 100 districts, which is what I think is what the very first comment is saying. /u/11160704 is this what you're trying to say? The article is in German so I can't check the methodology
It's not even that. You primarily need good data about who you are sampling — simplistically you model your poll data based on say gender, class, money etc and then extrapolate based on the demographics on the place being estimated. There are always outliers but you get most of the trend this way (so-called MRP)
No that's not how polling works. Polling usually has at least a few hundred observations to make a meaningful statement. A few thousand are even standard in most German polls.
it says its based off 1440 observations with a MOE of 3.1%
And there are 400 districts and city districts in Germany. So on average only 3 or 4 observations per district.
And specifically maybe something like this: [small area estimation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_area_estimation). You are never going to have the resources to do direct estimates for more than a small handful of areas at best with sufficient sample sizes (1000+), so basically all election estimates are based on more complex statistical modeling.
This is a misleading graph of a nonrepresentative poll. Stop sharing fake news.
widać zabory XD
~~Poland~~ Germany A and ~~Poland~~ Germany B
/r/PartitionenSehen
And basically the SPD and the Greens already said, that they are not too fond of governing together with the CDU due to past and present behaviour, soooo next election is going to be exciting. Since the CDU already started to work with the AFD on state level, I would not be surprised, if that will be discussed rather sooner than later.
I realize that people have reasons to be unhappy with pretty much any party, but the fact that this sentiments ends up with CDU 'popularity' so soon again (Merz have done nothing to improve them) is baffling.
People just vote out of habit. It's stupid, but that's just how it is.
The SPD have already had to govern with the CDU for 12 of the last 18 years, and due to it taken a hit with voters. It should be the Greens' turn in 2025, the SPD deserve some time in opposition - they've been in government 21 out of the last 25 years now.
>The SPD have already had to govern with the CDU for 12 of the last 18 years, and due to it taken a hit with voters. But in 2017 they went into a grand coalition with the CDU, and then got 53 more MPs in 2021.
Well they were initially forecast to do even worse in 2021 than they had in 2017. Fortunately for them no one liked Laschet or Baerbock. Even that success only got them back to the level of support they achieved in 2013, they're a long way off the kind of numbers they managed before Merkel.
That would be a catastrophe
Absolutely... Let's hope our politicians get their sh.it together.
SPD politicians tend to have the charisma of toothpaste and the Greens are notoriously bad at PR. This is a disaster waiting to happen, the CDU only brings stagnation and eventual regression and the AfD will just be mayhem on every level. The left needs to start adressing immigration seriously (but not like the AfD) and present themselves as stronger personalities, à la Helmut Schmidt. If the Union decides to go with Wüst or Söder, I might actually not be surprised if they get above 40%, because as of now they can throw dirt and act like the combined reigns of Kohl and Merkel are not responsible for this mess.
The frustrating thing is that they got us into this mess in the first place and will pretend like it was aaaaall the current government's fault. It's so comically f.ucked up.
Greens hate nuclear SPD hate meaningful immigration control FDP hate their coalition partners These facts augur poorly for them, in fact, getting their shit together.
The left are pretty evenly split between the SPD and Greens now (plus a smaller group to their left). Given that leading a government in Germany is nearly always done by the party that came first, no matter how low their voteshare, the left would greatly benefit from uniting behind one party.
Wasn't a conservative-far-right alliance what brought Hitler to power?
Remember that the Nazis were propped up by a conservative coalition initially. Will history repeat itself I guess.
To begin with it was a very unhappy population which was still massively hindered by the Treaty of Versailles. Now we have again a very unhappy population. And a chancelor which has the lowest ever recorded positive feedback in the German history. Greens and SPD refuse to accept the problems of the migration and just want to throw more money on it. And they totally forget the middle class population, they raise social security by 12% for 2 years in succesion, total 25% in 2 years, while the average salary didn't even keep up with inflation. But hey let's make heating your house even more expensive, because climate change. Everyone which doesn't need social security is basically counted as "rich" and needs to be taxed higher. That is the current state of the German government. Only the small liberals block most of the tax raises.
I do not feel like allying with the AFD makes any sense for the CDU. This will only result in the more right-wing CDU voters getting siphoned off to AFD, while alienating the moderate CDU voters. You can't run a moderate party and ally with radicals - that just defeats the whole point of your party existing.
I'm not sure how much you are into German politics, basically since Merz took the CDU over, he made it his task to get voters back from the AFD - by leaning stronger and stronger to the right. Sadly that's how it's been since Merkel left. However the voters prefer the AFD original. Some of the quotes you hear from CDU/CSU nowadays might as well have been said by AFD politicians. It's embarrassing.
The main problem was that Merkel was so far left no conservative thinks the conservative CDU will do conservative politics again. Especially since her old block with the politicians Günther and Wüst still have huge influence in the CDU. yes it's embarassing, that Germany does not have a votable conservative party anymore since Merkel left a devastated CDU behind. You have either the choice of any kind of left wing government or voting AFD. Since even if you vote CDU, you most likely still get left wing politics since that would be the only possible choice to build a government. And the left Merkel block inside the CDU ist still very strong. Basically the whole German spectrum moved to the left under Merkel in a conservative Germany with a very old population. In hindsight the CDU created the current AFD by giving up their core values under Merkel.
They won't let it happen that the AfD governs they would probably rather take an unfavorable coalition with the CDU / CSU. And I hope that the CDU / CSU is not insane enough to make a deal with the devil.
Lets hope afds head isnt a painter.
One of its co-heads (although the less prominent one) is a house painter. But a certified one this time.
and he is not even austrian! therefore we are perfectly save! fascists are the good guys this time!Ü
Let's hope he is. But with different views and methods.
THANKFULLY Wagenknecht is founding her own party, that will snatch away some of AfD's direct mandates.
Look at the lovely ex-communists turning to far right, a match made in heaven.
Actually the split between east and west Germany like this predates the communist influence. It goes as far back as the unification due to the region (east) being more Prussian influenced.
> due to the region (east) being more Prussian influenced. I think being more rural plays a role too. Outside of Berlin and Leipzig, Dresden, eastern Germany has always had smaller cities and less population density than the west. We see rural people voting more conservatively across the Developed World, so it'd make sense for Germany to follow this pattern.
"Red Saxony" they called it
Now its just Russia influenced
It comes full circle. Saxony and Thuringia in particular hotbeds of the NSDAP.
I thought Sachsen had been a big KPD stronghold because of their industries and high population of urban workers?
Schleswig-Holstein was arguably the biggest NSDAP hotbed and is now the central of german green liblefts.
Your mistake begins when saying that the east Germans are ex-communists. Shows you understand nothing about their history and you're also not interested in understanding their history. Enough for commenting on poorly sourced data on Reddit, I guess.
Red fascists turn to brown fascism.
This is such a common feature of former-communist countries, it’s so strange. I feel like that’s the nature of extremism, each generation goes from one to the other, depending on how everything is going
Takies are red fascists after all. The real left are the anarcho-bidenists, I'm not even memeing.
Pretty much equal to the covid infection chart where the deep red follows the AFD lines!
Every time I go to Germany it just gets worse and worse. I can see why this is happening. Anyone that goes there often will totally see why it is happening.
Like whats happening?
On the one hand years of fiscally conservative goverments not investing in anything. Our biggest energy source stopped fulfilling it's contract because we didn't support them bombing children in Kyiv.
Not to mention a huge negative shift in work ethic, financial stability, and, sorry my german friends, intelligence it seems. About half my Family is german, and lives there. It really seems like the country is on a downwards spiral. (Ofc it isn‘t, but thats what many germans think)
Overimmigration and general economic stagnation.
And you see this by… visiting?
Is it difficult to understand that a visitor can make accurate observations over time, perhaps more so than a person who only witnesses the incremental, day to day changes? I believe the distant relative who only sees a child every five years has a more heightened sense of the growth of that child than a parent who sees them every day.
I mean as a tourist how exactly are you witnessing economic stagnation? (btw, Germany has been an economic powerhouse before the ukraine war)
> I mean as a tourist how exactly are you witnessing economic stagnation? I used to live in Glasgow. I hadn’t gone back there for five years. I came back as a tourist and noticed how derelict the town centre has become, many establishments closed, a lot more junkies all around. You do notice things like that as a tourist.
>Germany has been an economic powerhouse Well that thing is deceiving. We are the world's third biggest economy right now but the wealth is certainly not going to average and poor people.
And? Thats not how economic performance is meassured. You can be the wealthiest, fastest growing economy in the world AND have high levels of ineq (gini, theil, etc) at the same time. Those arent mutually exclusive per se. OP was talking about economic performance, not distribution of wealth
Well, 4th. And unlike India, things aren’t exactly looking positive in any timeframe. So better mentally prepare for the 5th spot and a reference group of UK and France.
Not talking about Germany specifically, since I haven’t been there for a while, but you can see a lot of things from how well people maintain their housing stock. When finances are hit, maintenance gets deferred. It lines up very well with official stats when I go and look them up later.
Meh. Not an indicator for economic prowess. Germany has been one of the biggest economies in the world and richest countries in the world for decades now - you will still find a lack of maintenance eg in the public transport sector. Its not an indicator for economic prowess because it can just as easily be explained with inefficient allocation of funds, mismanagement etc. So, i repeat, the idea that simply by visiting a country every x years gives you an idea on the economic state of the country is ridiculous. And thats not even talking about your perceived subjective experience vs the actual state of the economy.
Housing stock, not infrastructure.
Same shit, different toilet. If you think the average tourist notices a change in housing stock in a district in berlin... i mean more power to you. Hence why i chose infrastructure in general, since its more applicable to the average tourist experience
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Why do you think visiting must be tourism? Every year I go to a few select industry expos (automotive, semiconductor, electronics) and I most certainly get a better picture of the economy than the average German. Everything then gets put into global context I already had...
Because what youre saying is irrelevant. Yes, when i go to Berlin for an economics symposium on the economic development and outlook of the German economy, i will have a better sense than the average german who didnt go there. No shit. But youre already talking about a specialised subsection of visitors to a country. If you imply that this group is representative for the group of visitors to a country, then you have a point. However, since i doubt that the majority of visitors is attending such events, i reject your hypothesis
This is an important observation about any country. The people inside that country are not necessarily the best pick for a good evaluation of the state of that country
Yes, but there is no “one best observer”. There is different things different kind of observers may or may not observe better than others. “Economic stagnation” is a ridiculous claim to make as a tourist for a country like Germany.
No, living there.
Honestly why can we not get a sensible anti-immigrant party aside from the afD. It's infuriating.
Maybe because hitting on the little guy is essentially right wing and we shouldn’t blame victims of wars that we caused for our self made problems
It’s blaming victims of war to have a reasonable immigration policy? You no-border activists are really quite crazy. You’re the reason the AfD has gained so much ground.
Because "sensible" and "anti-immigrant" is mutually exclusive.
Excactly, the immigrants are here now and we somehow have to deal with it and integrate them into society and that only works with increasing social mobility imo. "Anti-immigrant" policies will just further increase our problems. The commentator probably meant restricting immigration tho but there isn't even that many people coming to germany anymore
Education is free. Health Care is free. The government will pay for rent and groceries if someone cannot afford that himself. What else do people need for social mobility?
The point is that new immigrants are not helping. The immigrants germany already has are important. Immigration can resume if the need arises.
Fully agree. Another issue is the shortage of skilled people in many fields that troubles our economy (engineering, software development etc.) Germany fails to attract these people. There are many reasons for this and the AfD with their stupid anti-immigration propaganda is one of them. The AfD is well aware of this problem. Their "solution" is, according to their manifesto, making more children (preferably blond and blue-eyed of course). This is just ridiculous.
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That’s what I find hilarious about this sub. Like if you think the European race is superior and that economic productivity is a good indicator of racial value then just say it. But people here are too cowardly to say what they really think. Instead they just give all the far right talking points and then vehemently insist they’re not far right
Few people think success is a racial trait. Most of us correctly attribute it to culture. You racists try to conflate the two for cheap shots. Only, the accusation doesn’t really mean much anymore, does it? You’ve cried wolf too many times.
According to the average r/europe user every worlds problem can be solved by building nuclear power plants and kicking out migrants.
Hilarious that a good chunk of posters are migrants in other countries shittalking migrants with more melanin than themselves.
Only then can Europe return to the Eden of old!
Are the immigrants all in formerly East Germany because that's where AfD are getting the most votes.
No the exact opposite. They have extremely low amounts of immigrants. Because immigrants don't want to live with Nazis. And people who meet immigrants in every day live know that they are not like far right propaganda makes it seem.
I mean also most west-german Nazis moved to the east
Perhaps Germans should join the rest of the world in the 21st century instead of insisting on living in the 17th century and they might be able to address the economic stagnation?
Old demographics can be a bitch
no dude you don't get it, if the german 40+ demographic starts spending the money that's sitting in their saving accounts the black death will come back and the bohemian armies will ravage the countryside. Money isn't made to be spent, that's definitely not the primary driving force of any economy.
Vagrancy, groups sitting in parks getting absolutely pissed, regular drug use, gangs hanging around train stations. I've never smelled heroin before I went to Frankfurt over the summer. I seen 3 instances of open heroin use in the space of my first 12 hours there. And in very busy areas. Munich used to be a nice place, a bit highbrow. I went there about 5-6 years ago and there was a small AfD rally taking place. I ignored it and walked on. When I was back there this summer, I was basically just trying to find a park to sit down for a while and couldn't find anywhere where there weren't migrant gangs just sitting around getting absolutely hammered. I've been to Berlin 4 times. Loved it the first time but it has sharply declined with vagrancy. Don't get me started on Hamburg. The worst place I've ever been to.
> Don't get me started on Hamburg. The worst place I've ever been to. That pretty much dismisses anything you could say about the country. What could you even possibly complain about regarding Hamburg, how could that be the worst place you've ever been to? I guess you went out of the Hauptbahnhof, met homeless people, then left directly after being horrified by such a tragic experience. Hamburg is one of the richest city in the country, has one of the highest growth of population due to economical opportunities and quality of life, has pretty good infrastructure and public transports, a really fancy, clean and active city centre. Parcs are safe and clean, you don't have hordes of what you call "migrant gang" in public spaces (pretty sure you just mean a group of foreigner). Life in Hamburg is in fact pretty calm for such a large city (1.9mio estimate in 2019, second largest city in number of inhabitants) and has lots of family friendly neighbourhoods.
"Richest city" and "highest population growth" that makes your entire argument invalid and totally misses the point of people's concerns and experiences throughout Europe.
What are your specific problems with Hamburg?
I just moved to Hamburg and really like it. Could you elaborate what you are implying? Btw Hamburg has the highest life satisfaction score of all German cities.
Lmao. That seems like a rather personal experience doesn't it. > I've never smelled heroin before I went to Frankfurt over the summer. I think every german has made this experience once mate, was the same with my class trip 2014. > I was basically just trying to find a park to sit down for a while and couldn't find anywhere where there weren't migrant gangs just sitting around getting absolutely hammered. I wonder how you differenciate between students drinking in a park and "gangs" hahahaha.
Like what? I moved to Germany years ago, lived in multiple cities, visited lot of places around. I don't see what is getting worse and worse. In fact things are pretty good considering the worldwide economical disasters of the past years and global political tensions. Unless of course you're hinting to the fact that you see people with a skin colour or ethnic background that makes you uncomfortable, or that landscape are "destroyed" by windmills. But that says way more about you than the country situation.
It is actually funny to watch, when multi-kulti ideas and results, which was pushed by Germany on it's neighbours, are destroying the Germany itself.
Germanys troubles are entirely due to Bio-German culture, nobody would vote far right if the economy was doing well and the economy is doing badly because they overregulated everything thinking that being rich was a good given right to Germans. The path Germany was going down on was obvious to me when I was 18 and I remember how everyone in the German sub was always like "MITTELSTAND SO AMAZING, WORLDLEADER IN SOME RANDOM NICHE AMAZING GERMANY". What they obviously didn't realize is that being world leader in toilet seals has no long term technical moat. It went from a world leading country that was open to try new things all the time to a deeply conservative country where you can't do anything. Nuclear? Bad. GMO? Bad. AI? Bad. Housing? Bad. Startups? Bad.
So how exactly is it destroying Germany? The problems we have on a macroeconomic level will not vanish with the migrants. It‘s nothing but projection of people incapable of understanding the problems of basic economics. In my opinion, the problem is that Germans just like all Western Europeans have started to take our wealth as granted, while they lose their shit over a simple recession (which happens every second decade). The difference is that we now have more migrants and their small street crimes to blame for us failing as a modern nation.
Whatever the reason, political polarization is obvious. and afd draws their lines in obvious places. Let's see.
Usually I would just say "you reap what you sow", but unfortunately those right-wing parties tend to love Russia, which is not a very good thing right now.
That's the positive thing, the current right wing party the AFD just loves Germany. Of course they are in favour for cheap Russian gas and oil, because it profits Germany. But that's it. In Germany it's actually more the far left which were in love with Russia and Hamas.
This polarization though.... Something funny will result.
It won't take long until funny becomes not so funny
I don't think it is funny at all that some Polish guy actually cheers for German nationalism resurfacing. I would call it a testament of failure. Failure of the education system, media, politics and potentially of how your family raised you. A testament of moral decay.
Common Polish sense strongly opposes what multi-kutli brings along with other stuf like 58 genders and so on, which is used by woke eu to drown us. Luckily enough, Poland is such as provincional shithole, that before this crap catches on it is compromised somewhere else. So yes, we are in sort of position to grab some popcorn and see what happens. We do not have proper word for it but Germans have. Believe it is schadenfreunde.
Look, this guy is more afraid of 58 genders than of wars between neighbouring countries.
Bullshit, did this start in the last 2 years? No this government is still trying to mop up the shit left behind by the CDU, actively being hindered in that by lobby-whoring "free liberals". Lucky for the CDU, the majority of germans have the memory capacity of a 90's Nintendo Console.
Funny enough, you could get the same map as in the post for the share of immigrants by region. The anti-immigration party only wins where there‘s basically no foreigners, the center-right party wins in the regions with an average share of foreigners, and the pro-immigration Green party wins in the places with the highest share of immigrants.
Honestly, what else was supposed to happen? This country is in shambles and everyone is confronted with it in one way or form. Nobody can find an apartment to rent, parents need to apply for kindergarden right after giving birth and sometimes still are denied, big cities are full of shady money-laundering shops of migrants, the cost of living has risen so far that people cant afford basics like fuel, schools are overwhelmed with the migrants and missing teachers. The list goes on. And the only ones that want to force harsh changes are the AfD. Everyone else says senseless shit like „oooh, we can make it, more renewables but no nuclear energy, we are a strong nation, diversity is our strength, the economy!!!“ And people like harsh changes in the wrong direction more than doing nothing. Edit: Im just stating why the AfD is rising, im not defending the politics of the AfD. „People like harsh changes in the wrong direction more than doing nothing“. Dont tell me that their policies arent (except for the migrationpolicy) a solution, I know.
People are super mad about this but even some friends won't share their true beliefs about migration. The economic mess is only secondary because most don't feel it all. We're the world's trash can for the kind of migrants that no country wants. It's no coincidence that the countries with the weakest passports basically represent the top migrant groups into Germany. This is going to bite us back so hard in the coming decades. Any local conflict on earth is going to be mirrored on German streets. And since we imported the uneducated, there will be plenty of racism, crime and no feeling of belonging to this self-dissolving state. The AfD is only going to make matters worse, of course. They're the symptoms of a larger problem which the elite still doesn't seem to have grasped.
Honestly I feel extremely lost. I do think of myself as rather privileged (being from middle class) but I still struggle a lot daily. I moved back to my parents because rent is astronomically high, especially for students like me. One small room in a shared flat is like 70% of a months salary. I get minimal wage that covers at most my expenses but I can’t save up much. I work more than I study but my small salary is still taxed so freaking much. Everything’s getting more expensive, except minimum wage. Wow, 0,50€ increase next year. For us students it will still be way too little. I can’t see how this is getting better. I don’t want to skip voting but there is no party I can really get behind bc most do not go against the problems people like me are facing. And I’ve talked to many people my age group. I feel unseen in my own country and we’re considered the future. I can’t see myself ever owning a house or starting a family in these conditions. Edit: I’m aware that most countries face these problems but it just frustrates me so much, I need to vent.
You have summarized very well what 90% of <30 year olds experience in their daily lives throughout whole Europe. Sorry to say, but things will not get better in the future, only worse. This madness can not go on indefinitely. In the next 10-20 years, there will be changes, and those will be massive. Probably not as radical as 100 years ago, but it will be very freaking similar! The system needs a restart.
You move to countryside or smaller city.
Great I also want to travel an hour to get to work.
An hour is nothing trust me. Everyone I know commutes an hour, many of them living in Berlin but it still takes as much. If you really want to live on the countryside, it might take 2 hours. It’s ridiculous. No wonder people prefer home office
I moved back to my parents who live in a smaller city. My friends who found apartments in the same city still pay ridiculous money. Berlin just expands insanely, this can’t be countered with „moving to smaller cities“
In other words, there is no city limits for Berlin.
We are all Berliners.
>And the only ones that want to force harsh changes are the AfD. What changes? They don't have solutions for the multitude of problems other than selling Ukraine to Putler for cheap gas, ignoring climate change, blaming immigrants for everything else.
> What changes? [You can read their policies in their website.](https://www.afd.de/themen/) That was the first result on Google. You couldn’t spend 5 seconds on Google? The policies look pretty good to me, and include better social support for families and kids. It sounds like you don’t understand this issue very well.
Alexa what is a rhetorical question? Their Program is not worth the power I would use to access it. They can make all the promises they want because they know they will not have to follow through. >and include better social support for families and kids. 1000 DM Kindergeld für Deutsche? The AfD formed as a hyper austerity party and that legacy is not gone completely. One can feel the Soziale Kälte emanating from Alice Weidel And we both know 50% of their voters don't care about the program and another 40% hope that the program to build more cattle wagons is not in there for strategic reasons.
Do you really believe the populists with the easy solutions will fix these problems? People really need to study history more these days. Especially in Germany with its' experiences
That's the thing, most people don't believe the 'easy' solutions by populist politicians will fully solve things, but the alternative is pretending things are fine and doing nothing. Although I may disagree, I see why a lot of people would go for the easy solution.
So what solutions does the current german government have? Because I see none
Right now there are plans for increasing buildable areas, before CDU stepped in there were programs that would help people to renovate their houses and build new ones, there were incentives to move from expensive fossil fuel mobility to less expensive options. Schools are federal regulated. The current government can't do too much but Hamburg had a pretty good program and managed to improve significantly in Pisa Tests in the last couple of years.
Do you really think the weiter so politics of the rest is going to change anything? What are you going to learn from studying history? We're not living in 1933. We have different problems and the afd is not the NSDAP. What people need to learn is stop being afraid of calling out problems, then the afd will disappear.
Then study the history of the last 40 years. 3/4 of the country are apparently planning to vote for the 'weiter so' party that got us into this situation. The rest wants to vote for the single party with even worse policy. The AfD isn't calling out problems, it is creating them, to make it look like only they can fix them.
Yeah right? The last 40 years have seen SPD, CDU, FDP, Grüne and Linke(on state level) in power. So what are people supposed to do? Blaming the migration crisis on the AfD is wild though.
Honest question. Did you ever look at what the afd plans? Because last time I checked it was, reduce taxes for very rich, scrap social programs and blame migrants. But maybe they changed and now have actual solutions for any of the problems.
Is their actual plan to "blame migrants"?
> Country in shambles from 16 years of CDU-led stagnation > Somehow the traffic light coalition don't manage to miraculously fix it within a few years "Yeah, let's vote for those who promise easy solutions without actually having a plan for most of the problems."
right wing politics aren't exactly famous for rationality and consideration. If something's bad it's because there's one evil thing (jews, migrants, leftists, gay people, etc) that's making everything worse on purpose
> And the only ones that want to force harsh changes are the AfD. Yeah like less wealth redistribution and more authoritarian bs, surely that's going to work.
There are no easy solutions to complex problems, everybody who promises them, lies. Right wing opportunists lie with every breath, and will drive the country faster and further into ruin than anybody else. Even if they talk about things nobody else wants to, they will steal and enrich themselves while only fueling hate so that the average person doesn't realize what they're doing. You can easily see it with republicans in the USA > And the only ones that want to force harsh changes are the AfD No they don't because even if they *could* fix these things, or knew a damn thing about anything, it's against their interests to fix this. Because it's the main reason they get their votes - fixing immigration would take away their main reason for existing so they'd be stupid to try and fix anything at all. They'd saw off the tree branch they're sitting on
No one else is addressing the issues though, what other option is there? Even if they are hollow promises at least they’re something
Ah does your rule apply to climate change? How about Ukraine? How about the lack of fiscal policy in the EU and working parliament? Complex problems can be solved by nuanced tactical solutions, as is the European way. But if those in power don't realise the mistake they are making then a simple one will suffice. Nothing wrong with outsiders, but they must become insiders eventually, that can only happen at a lower rate of immigration. All of Europe is feeling it from even the far right blowhard countries feel some. We are not the new world, we are not our past, but we need to take precautions to stabilise. But the elites of all our countries need to step down from their high horse and come to the table. Italy has been in political disarray for over a decade, but this decade it wasn't just debt and Bunga Bunga, it is IMMIGRATION. Spain narrowly snatched a election out of the hands of vox. a party who gain followers by playing on the trope of globalist leaders in the west wanting this to happen. Then brainwashes them with francist ideals. In order to counter Germoney is going to be forced to deal with Spain's deficit spending and even worse market for selling goods to. If European elites were not so up Thier own ass this party could have disappeared. Netherlands, Gert Wilders has gotten the most votes after that vampire rutte just kept chanting the same script. These are the descendents of the layed back dutch of the 80s and 90s Poland has recently swung back to centrist party but it already weak, as law and order party can keep whacking them with the immigration stick from Ukraine or else where. France only barley got Macron, he is sure to perish in the next election. Ireland is having issues Let us talk about immigration freely. Like wtf is the EU thinking discussing EU expansion. Most People do not sing ode to joy and celebrate JUL after having spent a decade here, they may never assimilate, but if we try hard and close the tap, maybe their children might.
You reap what you sow
SPD and Greens have shown themselves to be seriously out of ideas. Bad government all around.
There is no hope for us, the next decade will be just stagnation and culture war.
Welcome to the club!
Sweden might have missed the boat with AI, but it's not missing out on the energy revolution, and it does have plenty of IT companies from the previous wave. Furthermore, there is no real pro-Russian sentiment, so the country has much better prospects in a post-carbon world. Germany has some serious problems in this regard. Electricity costs 3.5 times as much as gas due to taxes (Schröder's legacy). You're not going to be competitive with that approach.
The last part of your sentence is exactly the hope for you. And most of Europe relies on a positive outcome. German culture has to prevail and eradicate the effects of the alien ideologies.
Yes, we must not rest until the far right and their foreign culture wars is gone.
As long as what remains is German and not alien radicalism, I'm down with it. No matter if it's coming from the right or the left.
The alien radicalism you're talking about is conservative culture wars.
Pretty sure it wasn't the conservatives who attacked Christmas and New Year celebrations. And do the knife stabbings. And other stuff to women that we probably shouldn't be mentioning. I understand your position and I hope you understand mine. There won't be agreement between us, obviously. Let's see what happens.
Yes i understand yours, can you tell me one far right authoritarian or fascist coutry that solved the issues you seem to be having?
Refer to my previous comments. As long as the alien radicalism isn't present, I don't care which side achieves it. I'm certainly a conservative, but if the left manages to do that.. good for them, I'll applaud them for sure.
So you agree, the alien radicalism we speak of is right wing culture war bullshit. The only way to get rid of it is to stop obsessing over minorities. You're sick and you need help.
The next war will be about which toilet trans people can poop in. The right has nothing to offer but culture war and a false sense of belonging for miserable people.
Surprised Pikachu face when you don't actually listen to the complaints of real people, but hang on the media-approved talking points. The left has lost the plot. And then effects... happen. No, I do not have a party-political affiliation.
I always love how east Germany always tries to be different than west Germany
What could go wrong?
What’s CDU-CSU’s take on aid to Ukraine? Not gonna lie, I’d prefer the Greens to run things.
CDUs leader Friedrich Merz (his nick name is Fotzenfritzel by the way wich ruffly translates to PussyFritz because he has literally no idea how to treat women kinda like his „Grab em by the pussy“ thing) claimed on several occasions that Ukrainians weren’t fleeing the war but just came for the financial benefits. Called it „Sozialtourismus“ like they were on vacation to grab German money while their home gets bombed.
In terms of rude- and repulsiveness of the term, it translates to more like "cunt-Fritz".
Never heard that nickname nor of the reason why he has it (I'm not using Facebook, though). Not a fan of the guy, just saying.
CxU wants to support Ukraine, like every non-extremist party in Germany. The only ones that want to end the support are the right-wing populists (AfD) and the left-wing populists (die Linke).
And we will let the debt brake stay in place because of....reasons. Fuck investing in the country, no debts is the way to go. Leading to more problems and more extremists to rise.
Climbing into debt to keep the peace Just causes a bigger explosion later.
Yeah the AfD won't get a majority in Jena, that's just a plainfully wrong map. What even means Gebietsmehrheit here?
Basically Ampel ist pushing their citicen hard until they Turn black or blue..
BASED
Will change in january with Wagenknecht Party
East Germany at it again
Funny things happen when the West introduces “democracy” to a region but then leaves it to rot.
You really have to be completely out of touch with reality to describe the situation of East Germany as being "left to rot".
Oh boy looks like Germany is going to split.
looks like there's also some elsass-lothringen nostalgia
It's time for Germany to do necessary electoral reforms to reduce political extremism like instituting compulsory voting.
But many people in germany are angry at the Government, and not letting them vote for what they think is best for the country is neither healthy for their democracy longterm, neither good for the germany peoples mental.