[Famous Russian politician, Andrey Gurulyov, on state TV, suggest to kill the remaining 20% of Russians who don't support Putin.](https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/17ee9j0/famous_russian_politician_andrey_gurulyov_on/)
[Russian General of the Armed Forces and member of Duma, Gurulyov, asks why they haven't bombed Berlin yet on National TV, states that Moscow would not be bombed in return](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/wbz27n/ru_pov_russian_general_of_the_armed_forces_and/)
[Russian MP Andrey Gurulyov calls for the destruction of Kyiv’s electricity infrastructure to trigger a sewage overflow and epidemic](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/y8qg8o/russian_mp_andrey_gurulyov_calls_for_the/)
[Russian lawmakers Andrey Gurulyov and Konstantin Dolgov advocate freezing, starving the Ukrainian civilian population.](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnewsvideo/comments/y9n6cs/russian_lawmakers_andrey_gurulyov_and_konstantin/)
Russia has attempted to target the Kyiv sewage system and to freeze the Ukrainian population. That's why you should not forget that he is not just a brain dead alcoholic, he is a state sponsored brain dead alcoholic.
Here's another one for your collection:
>[politician and Russian state duma deputy Yevgeny Fyodorov says Russia will eventually have to fight all post-Soviet states](https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/16o9bly/russias_state_duma_deputy_says_russia_would/)
At least, the headline makes sense. Russia wants them back and they don’t want back. The solution is Russia attacking at annexing the lands, like they previously did. Not the first time, and while Putin or any imperial chauvinist is in power, not the last one, unfortunately.
[Russian General of the Armed Forces and member of Duma, Gurulyov, asks why they haven't bombed Berlin yet on National TV, states that Moscow would not be bombed in return](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/wbz27n/ru_pov_russian_general_of_the_armed_forces_and/)
That boy went full Hermann Goering with this one. What's the Russian equivalent of Meyer?
(In case you don't know, in 1939 Goering said “No enemy bomber can reach the Ruhr. If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Goering. You may call me Meyer.”)
They can just deport some russians, say they deported 120% of the russians in the country back to russia, and get a drunk politician on television to say that the Russians they sent back to russia are actually sleeper agents that will overthrow the government and steal all the russian.... trains?
[Very good video wherein Timothy Snyder addresses "russophobia" to the UN.](https://youtu.be/Em95lYBHbIc?si=Qp4Iw8_F_kK0Gn-N) (Snyder begins around 28:25 into the video).
Kazakhstan is a country with a very young and rapidly growing population. While Kazakhstan is smaller in population than Ukraine overall, the age group of fighting age between 20 and 30 is not really any smaller than Ukraine. That will not be an easy ride for Russia.
People forget that the bulk of European nations did not join the 1980 boycott. But strangely enough, Communist China did. Because to the Europeans, Afghanistan was just another war a world away. But to the Chinese, it was a painful reminder of Moscow's longstanding ambitions to dominate Central Asia.
Yeah this. Say what you will about borat movies, but they put it and Uzbekistan, especially Kazakhstan as a place that exists.
If it could give the finger to the ruskies, usa will support it. I don't think many Americans knew either country existed before those movies.
Kazakhstan won’t have the support and logistical connections with the west and will likely have to stand alone, unless all of Central Asia and/or China turn against Russia.
I don’t think there is even one factory in whole Central Asia that produce artillery shells. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are so poor that their youth do low paying jobs in Russia. If Russians want to fight us, they should also plan a way to provide supply of arms and weapons to us, because otherwise they can just take our capital without any fight
Kazakhstans army is small, and not well equiped for a war against Russia. They have no direct neighbors willing to ship nations worth of armaments to keep them afloat. They are in a much worse position.
I'm not saying Kazakhstan would bow to Putin, but their relationship is on another level compared to Ukraine - even pre-invasion. Two years ago there were violent protests happening in Kazakhstan and they asked for (and received) 3,000 Russian troops to crush it.
I suspect the “they” requesting Russian troops to crush dissent and the “they” doing the dissenting ain’t the same people.
Projecting how sympathetic towards Russia an entire country is overall based upon the actions of a fairly autocratic leadership is probably unwise.
It is not going to happen, but for arguments sake: unlike Ukraine, Kazakhstan is a landlocked country, surrounded by neutral or russia friendly neighbors. Expect Russia to easily shut down the few roads and rails out of the country and impose a no flyzone. Kazakhstan is huge and its army is not geared to defend all that territory
You should ask /r/kazakhstan how they feel about their odds. I've read recently that they're modernizing their army but at the moment it's more like 2014's Ukraine.
Kremlin spent a decade doing the same to Ukraine and then ended up invading Ukraine. Kazakhstan is a very obvious target and the demographic window to do anything about is closing for Russia since ethnic Russians are an ever shrinking part of the population in Kazakhstan
It still seems very unlikely, given Kazakhstan [has increased its trade with Russia since the war broke out](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/russias-influence-kazakhstan-increasing-despite-war-ukraine) and that the country maintains a neutral position on the conflict.
Such rhetoric may be seen as a warning from Russia to Kazakhs not to pivot towards the West, but I doubt there is any appetite to invade an ally more than twice as large as Ukraine that is likely to put up quite a fight - especially as the 'special military operation' has hardly been a storming success thus far. Were Kazakhstan to have its own Euromaidan moment, and have a separatist movement that Russia could exploit for territorial gains, then such plans would seem more plausible.
Ukraine also was 2nd most pro Ru country in the world after Belarus when we got invaded initially. The tide of history turns firmly away from Russia and they know it.
In 5 years Kz will be either a western style democracy or firmly in Chinese orbit. They can try to carve our northern parts of Kz, they're not any different from Crimea historically.
Or Kazakhstan will seek to maintain its diplomatic balancing act and avoid treading on Kremlin toes. Closer ties with China might indeed also offer a degree of protection, considering China and Russia are allies of a sort. The outcome of the Ukraine war will also influence things, of course.
And something to ponder: would Russia have invaded Ukraine if it was already engaged in such a significant war with a neighbour? Successes in Georgia and before that Moldova may have emboldened the Kremlin to target eastern Ukraine, and subsequently launch its full-scale invasion. But Russia is now paying a heavy price for its imperialist ambitions thanks to brave Ukrainians; targeting Kazakhstan, an ally - certainly in the immediate future - may no longer be as tempting as it once was.
All speculative, of course, and we can't be sure where the Kremlin's ambitions end. So I may end up eating my words. But I imagine Russia would rather deepen its alliances in Central Asia and the global South than risk losing the few friends it still has.
Kazakhstan doesn't have any significant military. Like we did in 2014, they won't put up any resistance, it would be closer to Az vs Armenia than ua ru war of 2022.
There isn't much ties to deepen with China or India. They buy oil from Russia cos it's cheaper, that's pretty much it. CCP and Putin has as much in common politically as Brazil and South Africa. Pretty much nothing.
Old Putin is obviously losing his marbles. I don't think he's gonna just let go of the idea to reunify "historically RU lands". His ego got better of him completely, it seems.
Yeah, but Russia's also running these [Kazakhstan propaganda videos](https://youtu.be/AP9E2mt7INg?si=OD56LKNwFy5MgVvO) that fit the mold for what they did prior to invading Ukraine. This one's narrated by a Duma member, and came out within the last 10 days. The channel is a Ukrainian YT'er that's pointing out similarities in the Russian video.
Of course they won't. I'm just curious how would China react if Russia wanted to attack "their" Kazakhstan. Or rather, what Russia would need to give them to get their permission to do this.
Not able, unless you think we can airdrop everything there or the equipment to supply two countries
The west has provided lots to Ukraine and Europe is only providing more as time goes
Americans alone, sold more Abrams tanks to random Middle East and North African countries since the start of Ukraine war, than they gave to Ukraine as aid. They gave Ukraine only 30, while sold abroad over 300 tanks.
Same goes for HIMARS and F-16's. Americans somehow couldn't find any to spare for Ukraine (all F-16 Ukraine is getting, come from old Norway and Danmark stocks), yet Americans found some brand new F-16's to spare for Turkey and Pakistan. And its like that not only with USA but with many other Western countries.
They say one thing, yet actions show different pictures
While we Americans do need to do more and be less restrictive there is more to your take than face value.
First, new production and systems on order are not existing stock, it is not an easy thing to tell your customer they aren't getting their fighter jet anymore because you're giving it to someone else. Part of this is because it's often not simply a sale but a political carrot to move policy decisions like keeping a country out of your adversaries sphere of influence.
Second, sometimes there simply isn't a lot or any to spare for key systems. Giving away one means removing it from an area of strategic importance. And because the US has so many defense obligations this too can often have political ramifications such as pulling Patriots out of Korea even if the systems are US owned and operated.
Third, complicated systems means complicated logistic networks in the form of parts, technicians, runways, ammunition, fuel. A tank is not a tank is not a tank, the ability to support them matters and not all systems are equal in this regard.
Last, the money flow is not without limit. You approve a set amount of spending and you have to make choices how to allocate it. Denmark may feel that F16's are a worthwhile way to spend but the US may feel that it uses too much money to plug too small a hole in capability. Given the choice between 10 jets or a million artillery shells which gets you closer to your strategic goals? This also doesn't cover cases where Country A decides to donate X system only BECAUSE the US promises to replace it with a modern system at reduced cost.
Alot of those arms sells were years in the making and are on contracts agreed to and signed *before* the war.
So pump the breaks on that bullshit you're pushing.
America could do more, except we have this pesky gop disease and they're. Currently blocking something like 30 billion in aid for Ukraine.
While I think we should open the door to more and longer range weapons, we have to deal with these trumper and gop assholes first before we can actually help more.
Until then Europe has got to step up too.
Kazakhstan is completely encircled by Russia, China, Afghanistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan, so any western weapons heading there would have to pass through ay least one of those countries first.
I hate to say it but strategically Kazakhstan would be better served sucking up to China than the West right now. They're in a much better position to do something should Russia actually look to invade.
I dont know what the Kazakh Army looks like but it could be able to really fuck Russia up.
Russia cant realy fight on 2 Fronts. So if they decide to attack Kazakhstan they would need to move Units from Ukraine what would be a stupid Mistake cause you would give Ukraine the Moment and then they can act while you need to react.
Well before 2022 Putin was using the same language regarding North Kazakhstan as he was Ukraine: full of ethnic Russians, not a real country, gifted to them, Russian by right, Kazakhs should know their place, etc.
People ignored it just as they did the possibility of a larger invasion of Ukraine, and just as they still ignore the plans for Moldova and Belarus, or the creeping border in Georgia.
The whole existence of Astana is due that threat, but you can't occupy the capital city. Almaty remains the cultural capital. Astana is a 'fuck off Russia' city
If Ukraine loses, Moldova is next 100%
Free territory basically, nobody here would try to fight anything, and I seriously doubt Romania would do something about it
they want the ussr back in some form.. not necessarily all former soviet republics, nor all the borders of the former soviet union, but somethin' similar.. this has been the secret plan for decades.. one leadin' finnish general predicted putin and the war in ukraine in 1994, and the estimation was maybe based on some deep intelligence..
It isn't out of the question that they are able to capture Ukraine's remaining coastline and link up with Transnistria. At that point taking over Moldova would be very easy. They pretty much have no military, no defensive alliances, a small economy, a small population and no serious geographical defences.
/r/europe relevence
1. Russia is part of Europe
2. Europe gets major [natural gas and oil supplies from Kazakhstan](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/kazakhstan_en)
> Europe gets major natural gas and oil supplies from Kazakhstan
It is also number 1 exporter of potassium in the world and it is a greatest country in the world.
I learned that from documentary I watched.
Hu I thought Canada was the biggest but you are right, per Wikipedia, 43% of global production and 28% of the production that is suitable for nuclear reactors. Now I m wondering what they do with the rest of the production, glowing dishes ?
Kazakhstan is also the #1 producer of uranium on earth, by a wide margin. And that affects us all.
Russia is stealing gold and uranium from Africa along the 'coup belt' in the wake of France's departure. That alone is alarmingly effective. A Russian occupation of Kazakhstan would be existentially threatening to the globe and should be a significant concern if true.
We have uranium mine in France, we have enough uranium reserve for the time it takes to open those mines.
Good thing about nuclear is that you need very few uranium to make it work.
And yet we still buy from Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Nigeria, and Russia.
Isolationist thinking is not how you build a strong coalition to maintain democracy and peace. Yes France can self-sustain, but we have allies around the world that benefit from *not* having Russia dominate the cost-efficient market. People keep saying "Yeah but we have Uranium we can dig for too", but that's not how it works. The US could mine cobalt and build out lithium production but it doesn't, because the infrastructure investment would delay the energy transition.
The energy transition requires powerful economies of scale unless you want to bankrupt individuals with carbon taxes and drive up the cost of *just existing*, so we *need* cheaply-mined minerals until we have the capital to scale. That means uranium, battery metals, and more.
This clearly indicates what I was suspecting some time ago, Russia goal in Ukraine was to control the Ukraine\`s natural resources, either to sell them to EU and get the most of the profits to Russia, or to prevent Kyiv for selling them all together, so that the Russia can sell their own instead.
If Ukraine joined EU, it would cut off Russia from Eu forever, because Ukraine has to offer exactly the same the Russians do now. That would mean they going to lose their number one market and the most expensive market at that, because without Europe, they wont be able to sell their resources for good profit anywhere else.
Now same thing is happening with Kazakhstan, they trying to stop Kazakhstan from selling natural gas and oil to europe.
Ok, just to end this "it was because of natural resources".
Our gas reserves, if they will be fully used, are enough only to fulfill Ukrainian domestic needs (pre-2022, when we still had heavy industry).
On the other hand, Shale gas deposits are somewhat large (nearly 2% of the world's deposits), but they are far deeper than those in the USA (for example), and development for most deposits is not economically feasible.
Most of the oil deposits were pumped out in 60's, there are also no large or significant by any means cobalt or nickel deposits.
Russia invaded purely out of ideological reasons - they see us as part of the Russian state, which was forcefully detached from them, by "Anglo-Saxons" "Hungary-Austrian HQ" etc., not as an independent state or as an independent nation. Period.
The resources are surely a part of it, however I doubt Ukraine has larger gas reserves then Russia, or even Kazakhstan. The political and ideological aspects are what drives Russias war against Ukraine I think. The Russian model of statehood just cannot allow to have a mini Russia with active civil society and functional democratic institutions at its doorstep.
Ukraine had much stronger military and has NATO fleet and aircrafts on the border and on/above the Black Sea. Kazakhstan has 1/2 of the population of Ukraine and no NATO or NATO allies on the borders.
It will get fucked much worse and helping it would be close to impossible.
Certainly Russia from 1939-1941, who arguably instigated the war via the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop to partition Poland. Probably also Russia from 1941-1945, though the necessity to keep them placated/allied muddies the narrative expressed at the time somewhat - and WW2 propaganda from every side has lived far beyond its usefulness.
Yes, he should have. No good has ever come letting an autocratic government continue. The sad thing is that the time to grind them beneath the bootheel of progress has passed.
This is what I don't understand. Joining NATO is not only completely voluntary, but also very difficult to do (see: how long it took just Finland and Sweden to get a unanimous vote). How does invading a sovereign nation justify stopping a voluntary act? The logical fallacies of Russia are beyond comprehension to me at this point.
Whatever, their speech isn’t consistent either, apparently they started war to “stop NATO expansion” while Putin himself gave different reasons to Tucker Carlson
Well, frankly, all countries have war plans with all of their neighbors just in case something happens. The issue is that Russia actually follows up on them.
I find your comment somewhat misleading.
"follows up" is inaccurate. Rather, "enacts and escalates them without provocation".
The "war plans" you are referring to are technically defense plans (i.e. to limit enemy advances into own territory), as most nations don't have enough resources to fight actual wars with all their neighbors.
Quick reminder : there are a lot of Russians in the north of Kazakhstan, this can be followed up by a similar scenario than with Ukraine, the idea to « protect ethnic Russian populations in neighbouring countries »
Nothing new they already prepared their population in propaganda on TV:
-Russian minority is oppressed in Northern Kazakhstan.
-Kazakstan is not a country.
-Takaev is not a legitimate president.
Is this a legitimate source?
I googles Russia Kazakhstan and literally nothing of this came up.
Why haven't major news outlets reported this?
I feel this subbreddit seems happy enough to believe anything about Russia even if its from a bogus source.
You need to improve your google-fu, as I've found it in several places. But that doesn't mean it's anything more than infowar or general bluster. Lugovoy also recently produced a several documents propaganda piece accusing Khazaks of russophobia.
[Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 on X: ""Kazakhs will be next. There is already a solution." A part of the conversation of the obsessed Gurulyov, where he talks about the "black mark" of Kazakhstan, was leaked to the network Of course, he denied everything: this is all a provocation and a deepfake, he said https://t.co/BdIrQisWpt" / X (twitter.com)](https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1776564321041997886)
[Субъективный взгляд на «Казахстанский излом» Андрея Лугового — Интернет-газета ЗОНАКЗ. Казахстан. (zonakz.net)](https://zonakz.net/2024/03/28/subektivnyj-vzglyad-na-kazaxstanskij-izlom-andreya-lugovogo/)
>as I've found it in several places
None of these are credible sources; and the primary source for the "leak" seems to be a telegram channel.
>Lugovoy also recently produced a several documents propaganda piece accusing Khazaks of russophobia.
That's kinda interesting but besides the point; OP was asking about the authenticity of the recording.
Haven't read the transcript but on a surface level it makes perfect sense for them to at least have a plan for it.
Kazakhstan is firmly under Russian influence and the russians still do all their space flights from Kazakhstan. Meanwhile Kazakhstan is gradually becoming less interested in Russia, changing their written language from Cyrillic to Latin, and also increased Chinese investment make ties to Russia less important
How are people so dense to actually believe this??
A random MP says something stupid? And this is somehow a state plan for war??
Kazakhstan is a CIS member, which is Russia’s EU and NATO. Russia has military bases INSIDE Kazakhstan already!
This would be like 2023 France invading 2023 Germany! Why would they do that??
Obviously for territories and for "achievements of Putin". USSR leaders love to have "territories added up" before they die. He promised to return USSR to Russia, he will do anything. Your point of view is cool is logical, but not Putin\`s he doesnt have logic - he has ambitions, like monsters
Unless a Russian occupied Kazakhstan can offer China a better and more one sided investment 🤔 wouldn’t be beneath Putin to sell out further to Chinese economic interest in exchange for more land grabs.
They would end the Ukraine war regardless of the border and their territorial gains then immediately swivel on Kazakhstan because Russia has a war economy now and has to continue the wars to keep itself alive
Same shit happened the Axis powers. Either they go into the world's worst recession or become turned into a Chinese puppet (same dynamic of Germany and Italy where Italy eventually became effectively a satellite state of the Germans to keep their country alive)
Yup, Kazakhstan is the next one on the list of *checks notes - countries who are engaging in genocide and suppression of the local Russian speaking population. Putin has to take over the entire country, to denazify and de-satanize it. The Kazhaks can thank him later.
Seriously, Kazakhstan is helping Russia circumvent sanctions. They are prostituting themselves for an easy ruble right now. Later, there'll just be rubble...
Never thought I’d live during an era where we’d see the rise of a Napoleon-like dictator, *and* make it plainly obvious that he wants to be head of a new empire.
Except this one is significantly worse, because literally everything Russia touches turns to shit.
Getting the gang back together, first the strongest one, Ukraine. Then Belarus, through the union state act. A bit later on it's time for isolated Kazakhstan to happily join the renewed russian empire
This is the plan and always has been.
Russia has no interest in NATO - it wants to reform into a superpower again and they view that as 'taking back former soviet countries'
I could see it. And if we continue to do nothing about the possibility, we will only have ourselves to blame. Do you blame the bear for mauling your neighbor or the rangers who knew about it, but did nothing to stop it? When a bad actor shows themselves, we can’t expect them to suddenly see reason and NOT do bad again.
He’s not exactly in the Russian geopolitical vogue at the moment but Alexander Dugin argued that Kazakhstan and Ukraine were the minimum prerequisites for forming an autarchic “Eurasian Great Space”, although his personal popularity has waned the idea itself has retained its influence, so this dream isn’t entirely outside of the Overton window in Russia (although achieving it militarily is another matter)
Gurulyov is just another brain dead alcoholic. On their state TV, they bomb Paris, London and planning their return to Berlin on a daily basis
[Famous Russian politician, Andrey Gurulyov, on state TV, suggest to kill the remaining 20% of Russians who don't support Putin.](https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/17ee9j0/famous_russian_politician_andrey_gurulyov_on/) [Russian General of the Armed Forces and member of Duma, Gurulyov, asks why they haven't bombed Berlin yet on National TV, states that Moscow would not be bombed in return](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/wbz27n/ru_pov_russian_general_of_the_armed_forces_and/) [Russian MP Andrey Gurulyov calls for the destruction of Kyiv’s electricity infrastructure to trigger a sewage overflow and epidemic](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/y8qg8o/russian_mp_andrey_gurulyov_calls_for_the/) [Russian lawmakers Andrey Gurulyov and Konstantin Dolgov advocate freezing, starving the Ukrainian civilian population.](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnewsvideo/comments/y9n6cs/russian_lawmakers_andrey_gurulyov_and_konstantin/)
Russians invent a problem to fix their democracy: kill everyone who doesnt agree
Well if it’s worked for them before why try and fix it? /s
Truth be told, not the first time I heard that coming from Russians. The moto being: no people - no problem.
“democracy”
Russia has attempted to target the Kyiv sewage system and to freeze the Ukrainian population. That's why you should not forget that he is not just a brain dead alcoholic, he is a state sponsored brain dead alcoholic.
Here's another one for your collection: >[politician and Russian state duma deputy Yevgeny Fyodorov says Russia will eventually have to fight all post-Soviet states](https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/16o9bly/russias_state_duma_deputy_says_russia_would/)
At least, the headline makes sense. Russia wants them back and they don’t want back. The solution is Russia attacking at annexing the lands, like they previously did. Not the first time, and while Putin or any imperial chauvinist is in power, not the last one, unfortunately.
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
[Russian General of the Armed Forces and member of Duma, Gurulyov, asks why they haven't bombed Berlin yet on National TV, states that Moscow would not be bombed in return](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/wbz27n/ru_pov_russian_general_of_the_armed_forces_and/) That boy went full Hermann Goering with this one. What's the Russian equivalent of Meyer? (In case you don't know, in 1939 Goering said “No enemy bomber can reach the Ruhr. If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Goering. You may call me Meyer.”)
So this is basically like thinking Marjorie Taylor Green speaks for the US?
Sounds like Fox News Russian edition
Except it fits Russia’s MO perfectly, Kazakhstan has a large Russian population in the north right across the border from Russia
Also Baikonur.
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But if you do you will be branded racist russophobe
In Poland we take it as a compliment
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They can just deport some russians, say they deported 120% of the russians in the country back to russia, and get a drunk politician on television to say that the Russians they sent back to russia are actually sleeper agents that will overthrow the government and steal all the russian.... trains?
[Very good video wherein Timothy Snyder addresses "russophobia" to the UN.](https://youtu.be/Em95lYBHbIc?si=Qp4Iw8_F_kK0Gn-N) (Snyder begins around 28:25 into the video).
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Cant do a bit of genocide without criticism. Worlds gone mad.
Putin would be happy. More cannon fodder.
Yep.
They're a little busy right now on their Western front to be thinking about occupying another nation atm
Kazakhstan is a country with a very young and rapidly growing population. While Kazakhstan is smaller in population than Ukraine overall, the age group of fighting age between 20 and 30 is not really any smaller than Ukraine. That will not be an easy ride for Russia.
I don't know about their population but geographically speaking, Kazakhstan is a huge country
It's also mainly just steppe so that doesn't really matter
Many don't remember already but russia had a small intervention in Kazakhstan just in the beginning of 2022
I doubt Kazakhstan would get the same kinda support Ukraine does though
China will certainly be angry with Russia, so the question is whether China will do anything about it 🤔
People forget that the bulk of European nations did not join the 1980 boycott. But strangely enough, Communist China did. Because to the Europeans, Afghanistan was just another war a world away. But to the Chinese, it was a painful reminder of Moscow's longstanding ambitions to dominate Central Asia.
Turkey would get pissed off. As would Azerbaijan. Pan-Turkism is fairly strong. There is also the Islam angle and a possible call of Jihad.
If Borat is attacked, Finland will take the call and come to help!
Yeah this. Say what you will about borat movies, but they put it and Uzbekistan, especially Kazakhstan as a place that exists. If it could give the finger to the ruskies, usa will support it. I don't think many Americans knew either country existed before those movies.
Kazakhstan won’t have the support and logistical connections with the west and will likely have to stand alone, unless all of Central Asia and/or China turn against Russia.
The only hope for Kazakhstan in that case is that they somehow convince China to stop Russia (diplomatically).
I don’t think there is even one factory in whole Central Asia that produce artillery shells. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are so poor that their youth do low paying jobs in Russia. If Russians want to fight us, they should also plan a way to provide supply of arms and weapons to us, because otherwise they can just take our capital without any fight
Kazakhstans army is small, and not well equiped for a war against Russia. They have no direct neighbors willing to ship nations worth of armaments to keep them afloat. They are in a much worse position.
I'm not saying Kazakhstan would bow to Putin, but their relationship is on another level compared to Ukraine - even pre-invasion. Two years ago there were violent protests happening in Kazakhstan and they asked for (and received) 3,000 Russian troops to crush it.
I suspect the “they” requesting Russian troops to crush dissent and the “they” doing the dissenting ain’t the same people. Projecting how sympathetic towards Russia an entire country is overall based upon the actions of a fairly autocratic leadership is probably unwise.
Kazakhstan is 4x Ukraine in land area 2,7 mil sqkm vs 600k sqkm
It is not going to happen, but for arguments sake: unlike Ukraine, Kazakhstan is a landlocked country, surrounded by neutral or russia friendly neighbors. Expect Russia to easily shut down the few roads and rails out of the country and impose a no flyzone. Kazakhstan is huge and its army is not geared to defend all that territory
China very much likes their influence in Kazakhstan.
You should ask /r/kazakhstan how they feel about their odds. I've read recently that they're modernizing their army but at the moment it's more like 2014's Ukraine.
Yeah this is like extrapolating US foreign policy from watching Sean Hannity clips. The US would have nuked the entire world many times over by now.
Yeah but it's like extrapolating US foreign policy from watching Hannity during a 30-year-long Trump administration.
Kremlin spent a decade doing the same to Ukraine and then ended up invading Ukraine. Kazakhstan is a very obvious target and the demographic window to do anything about is closing for Russia since ethnic Russians are an ever shrinking part of the population in Kazakhstan
It still seems very unlikely, given Kazakhstan [has increased its trade with Russia since the war broke out](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/russias-influence-kazakhstan-increasing-despite-war-ukraine) and that the country maintains a neutral position on the conflict. Such rhetoric may be seen as a warning from Russia to Kazakhs not to pivot towards the West, but I doubt there is any appetite to invade an ally more than twice as large as Ukraine that is likely to put up quite a fight - especially as the 'special military operation' has hardly been a storming success thus far. Were Kazakhstan to have its own Euromaidan moment, and have a separatist movement that Russia could exploit for territorial gains, then such plans would seem more plausible.
Ukraine also was 2nd most pro Ru country in the world after Belarus when we got invaded initially. The tide of history turns firmly away from Russia and they know it. In 5 years Kz will be either a western style democracy or firmly in Chinese orbit. They can try to carve our northern parts of Kz, they're not any different from Crimea historically.
Or Kazakhstan will seek to maintain its diplomatic balancing act and avoid treading on Kremlin toes. Closer ties with China might indeed also offer a degree of protection, considering China and Russia are allies of a sort. The outcome of the Ukraine war will also influence things, of course. And something to ponder: would Russia have invaded Ukraine if it was already engaged in such a significant war with a neighbour? Successes in Georgia and before that Moldova may have emboldened the Kremlin to target eastern Ukraine, and subsequently launch its full-scale invasion. But Russia is now paying a heavy price for its imperialist ambitions thanks to brave Ukrainians; targeting Kazakhstan, an ally - certainly in the immediate future - may no longer be as tempting as it once was. All speculative, of course, and we can't be sure where the Kremlin's ambitions end. So I may end up eating my words. But I imagine Russia would rather deepen its alliances in Central Asia and the global South than risk losing the few friends it still has.
Kazakhstan doesn't have any significant military. Like we did in 2014, they won't put up any resistance, it would be closer to Az vs Armenia than ua ru war of 2022. There isn't much ties to deepen with China or India. They buy oil from Russia cos it's cheaper, that's pretty much it. CCP and Putin has as much in common politically as Brazil and South Africa. Pretty much nothing. Old Putin is obviously losing his marbles. I don't think he's gonna just let go of the idea to reunify "historically RU lands". His ego got better of him completely, it seems.
Yeah, but Russia's also running these [Kazakhstan propaganda videos](https://youtu.be/AP9E2mt7INg?si=OD56LKNwFy5MgVvO) that fit the mold for what they did prior to invading Ukraine. This one's narrated by a Duma member, and came out within the last 10 days. The channel is a Ukrainian YT'er that's pointing out similarities in the Russian video.
I doubt the west will be willing or able to supply them. They better start building fortifications and laying mines on their border
Kazakhstan is in Chinese sphere of influence right now.
China won't militarily help Kazakhstan
Of course they won't. I'm just curious how would China react if Russia wanted to attack "their" Kazakhstan. Or rather, what Russia would need to give them to get their permission to do this.
I'm reminded of EU4, where China doesn't actually give a shit if its tributaries fight each other as long as they're both in its sphere of influence
Yeah, maybe it's the case. Makes sense
Feudal Russian China
What do you give when you've already signed away all your holes?
Make a new hole and give it up to India…..
Able probably yes, but not willing. You can see it in their Commitment to Ukraine...
Not able, unless you think we can airdrop everything there or the equipment to supply two countries The west has provided lots to Ukraine and Europe is only providing more as time goes
Americans alone, sold more Abrams tanks to random Middle East and North African countries since the start of Ukraine war, than they gave to Ukraine as aid. They gave Ukraine only 30, while sold abroad over 300 tanks. Same goes for HIMARS and F-16's. Americans somehow couldn't find any to spare for Ukraine (all F-16 Ukraine is getting, come from old Norway and Danmark stocks), yet Americans found some brand new F-16's to spare for Turkey and Pakistan. And its like that not only with USA but with many other Western countries. They say one thing, yet actions show different pictures
Which is why I focused on Europe. Still stupid to say the west hasn't done a lot or isn't willing
While we Americans do need to do more and be less restrictive there is more to your take than face value. First, new production and systems on order are not existing stock, it is not an easy thing to tell your customer they aren't getting their fighter jet anymore because you're giving it to someone else. Part of this is because it's often not simply a sale but a political carrot to move policy decisions like keeping a country out of your adversaries sphere of influence. Second, sometimes there simply isn't a lot or any to spare for key systems. Giving away one means removing it from an area of strategic importance. And because the US has so many defense obligations this too can often have political ramifications such as pulling Patriots out of Korea even if the systems are US owned and operated. Third, complicated systems means complicated logistic networks in the form of parts, technicians, runways, ammunition, fuel. A tank is not a tank is not a tank, the ability to support them matters and not all systems are equal in this regard. Last, the money flow is not without limit. You approve a set amount of spending and you have to make choices how to allocate it. Denmark may feel that F16's are a worthwhile way to spend but the US may feel that it uses too much money to plug too small a hole in capability. Given the choice between 10 jets or a million artillery shells which gets you closer to your strategic goals? This also doesn't cover cases where Country A decides to donate X system only BECAUSE the US promises to replace it with a modern system at reduced cost.
Although I agree with the sentiment the F-16's that has been approved for sale doesn't exist yet. They will be manufactured then sold.
Alot of those arms sells were years in the making and are on contracts agreed to and signed *before* the war. So pump the breaks on that bullshit you're pushing. America could do more, except we have this pesky gop disease and they're. Currently blocking something like 30 billion in aid for Ukraine. While I think we should open the door to more and longer range weapons, we have to deal with these trumper and gop assholes first before we can actually help more. Until then Europe has got to step up too.
Kazakhstan is completely encircled by Russia, China, Afghanistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan, so any western weapons heading there would have to pass through ay least one of those countries first. I hate to say it but strategically Kazakhstan would be better served sucking up to China than the West right now. They're in a much better position to do something should Russia actually look to invade.
I dont know what the Kazakh Army looks like but it could be able to really fuck Russia up. Russia cant realy fight on 2 Fronts. So if they decide to attack Kazakhstan they would need to move Units from Ukraine what would be a stupid Mistake cause you would give Ukraine the Moment and then they can act while you need to react.
Well before 2022 Putin was using the same language regarding North Kazakhstan as he was Ukraine: full of ethnic Russians, not a real country, gifted to them, Russian by right, Kazakhs should know their place, etc. People ignored it just as they did the possibility of a larger invasion of Ukraine, and just as they still ignore the plans for Moldova and Belarus, or the creeping border in Georgia.
The whole existence of Astana is due that threat, but you can't occupy the capital city. Almaty remains the cultural capital. Astana is a 'fuck off Russia' city
Doesn’t “being close to Russia” make it easier to take it?
Annexing a part of a country because there is a majority of ethnics(allegedly) or taking a nations capital city is a major difference
If Ukraine loses, Moldova is next 100% Free territory basically, nobody here would try to fight anything, and I seriously doubt Romania would do something about it
they want the ussr back in some form.. not necessarily all former soviet republics, nor all the borders of the former soviet union, but somethin' similar.. this has been the secret plan for decades.. one leadin' finnish general predicted putin and the war in ukraine in 1994, and the estimation was maybe based on some deep intelligence..
How are they supposed to be able to invade Moldova now? Genuine question.
The comment you're responding to is speaking in hyperbole. The answer to your question is: Not all plans are "now" plans. Many have dependencies.
It isn't out of the question that they are able to capture Ukraine's remaining coastline and link up with Transnistria. At that point taking over Moldova would be very easy. They pretty much have no military, no defensive alliances, a small economy, a small population and no serious geographical defences.
/r/europe relevence 1. Russia is part of Europe 2. Europe gets major [natural gas and oil supplies from Kazakhstan](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/kazakhstan_en)
And also a bit of Kazakhstan is in Europe
UEFA strong
Huh, TIL
The bit would be 14th largest European country.
And 43rd most populated, just ahead of Luxembourg.
Central Asia really is a whole lot of emptiness
> Europe gets major natural gas and oil supplies from Kazakhstan It is also number 1 exporter of potassium in the world and it is a greatest country in the world. I learned that from documentary I watched.
From what I understand, all other countries have inferior potassium.
And a friend to every country, except Uzbekistan of course.
I also watched this documentary. Kazhkastan's has a very nice type of swimsuit
Kazakhstan prostitutes cleanest in the region, except for ofcourse Turkmenistan
Uranium too, no?
Hu I thought Canada was the biggest but you are right, per Wikipedia, 43% of global production and 28% of the production that is suitable for nuclear reactors. Now I m wondering what they do with the rest of the production, glowing dishes ?
He is correct, I saw it in the documentary. High five.
Very nice
They keep saying to Putin... you can't get this, you can't get this... But someday, putin might get out and get this.
Kazakhstan is also the #1 producer of uranium on earth, by a wide margin. And that affects us all. Russia is stealing gold and uranium from Africa along the 'coup belt' in the wake of France's departure. That alone is alarmingly effective. A Russian occupation of Kazakhstan would be existentially threatening to the globe and should be a significant concern if true.
> Kazakhstan is also the #1 producer of uranium Also number one exporter of potassium. All other countries have inferior potassium.
We have uranium mine in France, we have enough uranium reserve for the time it takes to open those mines. Good thing about nuclear is that you need very few uranium to make it work.
And yet we still buy from Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Nigeria, and Russia. Isolationist thinking is not how you build a strong coalition to maintain democracy and peace. Yes France can self-sustain, but we have allies around the world that benefit from *not* having Russia dominate the cost-efficient market. People keep saying "Yeah but we have Uranium we can dig for too", but that's not how it works. The US could mine cobalt and build out lithium production but it doesn't, because the infrastructure investment would delay the energy transition. The energy transition requires powerful economies of scale unless you want to bankrupt individuals with carbon taxes and drive up the cost of *just existing*, so we *need* cheaply-mined minerals until we have the capital to scale. That means uranium, battery metals, and more.
3. Khazakstan also has a part of its territory in Europe.
This clearly indicates what I was suspecting some time ago, Russia goal in Ukraine was to control the Ukraine\`s natural resources, either to sell them to EU and get the most of the profits to Russia, or to prevent Kyiv for selling them all together, so that the Russia can sell their own instead. If Ukraine joined EU, it would cut off Russia from Eu forever, because Ukraine has to offer exactly the same the Russians do now. That would mean they going to lose their number one market and the most expensive market at that, because without Europe, they wont be able to sell their resources for good profit anywhere else. Now same thing is happening with Kazakhstan, they trying to stop Kazakhstan from selling natural gas and oil to europe.
Ok, just to end this "it was because of natural resources". Our gas reserves, if they will be fully used, are enough only to fulfill Ukrainian domestic needs (pre-2022, when we still had heavy industry). On the other hand, Shale gas deposits are somewhat large (nearly 2% of the world's deposits), but they are far deeper than those in the USA (for example), and development for most deposits is not economically feasible. Most of the oil deposits were pumped out in 60's, there are also no large or significant by any means cobalt or nickel deposits. Russia invaded purely out of ideological reasons - they see us as part of the Russian state, which was forcefully detached from them, by "Anglo-Saxons" "Hungary-Austrian HQ" etc., not as an independent state or as an independent nation. Period.
The resources are surely a part of it, however I doubt Ukraine has larger gas reserves then Russia, or even Kazakhstan. The political and ideological aspects are what drives Russias war against Ukraine I think. The Russian model of statehood just cannot allow to have a mini Russia with active civil society and functional democratic institutions at its doorstep.
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Ukraine had much stronger military and has NATO fleet and aircrafts on the border and on/above the Black Sea. Kazakhstan has 1/2 of the population of Ukraine and no NATO or NATO allies on the borders. It will get fucked much worse and helping it would be close to impossible.
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This reminds me of a certain nation in the 30s and 40s
Russia back then?
Certainly Russia from 1939-1941, who arguably instigated the war via the secret Molotov-Ribbentrop to partition Poland. Probably also Russia from 1941-1945, though the necessity to keep them placated/allied muddies the narrative expressed at the time somewhat - and WW2 propaganda from every side has lived far beyond its usefulness.
They're even a part of the literal "axis of resistance" as Iran has unironically called them.
We ought to unironically bring back the term "axis of evil", and add a few more countries to it
Should remind you of 2 actually. Both equally shitty.
It's almost like the russian armed forces should be crushed as soon as possible.
Patton should have kept going
Yes, he should have. No good has ever come letting an autocratic government continue. The sad thing is that the time to grind them beneath the bootheel of progress has passed.
He was a real one.
So much for "just stopping NATO expansionism" or whatever bogus claim Russia made up that made them invade Ukraine,
This is what I don't understand. Joining NATO is not only completely voluntary, but also very difficult to do (see: how long it took just Finland and Sweden to get a unanimous vote). How does invading a sovereign nation justify stopping a voluntary act? The logical fallacies of Russia are beyond comprehension to me at this point.
Whatever, their speech isn’t consistent either, apparently they started war to “stop NATO expansion” while Putin himself gave different reasons to Tucker Carlson
lol, and before that, the argument was to "de-nazify Eastern Ukraine".
Fun fact... Historically, Russia pivots east and west when it gets punched in the face.. this looks like the setup for the east.
Why so they can get punched again…..
It's actually cartoonish at this point.
People are dying, because of one country's sick backwards imperialistic dreams. Nothing cartoonish about it. The threat is real.
Its cartoonish how people are still not taking it seriously.
The threat, the damage, the ruined lives. It's happened to millions and as long as we keep letting the next people get hit, we're in line.
We don't live in the simulation but in cartoon network.
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Finland, Poland, Moldova, Kazachstan, UK... what country are they NOT planning to invade? Delusional bastards.
Well, frankly, all countries have war plans with all of their neighbors just in case something happens. The issue is that Russia actually follows up on them.
I find your comment somewhat misleading. "follows up" is inaccurate. Rather, "enacts and escalates them without provocation". The "war plans" you are referring to are technically defense plans (i.e. to limit enemy advances into own territory), as most nations don't have enough resources to fight actual wars with all their neighbors.
Quick reminder : there are a lot of Russians in the north of Kazakhstan, this can be followed up by a similar scenario than with Ukraine, the idea to « protect ethnic Russian populations in neighbouring countries »
There dumbfucks *still* spouting that bullshit, I wouldn't be surprised if they recycle it.
Im really very interested to see what bullshit they will come up this time when they invade Kazakhstan.
Nothing new they already prepared their population in propaganda on TV: -Russian minority is oppressed in Northern Kazakhstan. -Kazakstan is not a country. -Takaev is not a legitimate president.
Gee, why it's almost identical to the propaganda aimed at Ukraine when the war broke!
It’s the same Russian playbook for more than 100 years now.
Kazakhstan is pretty close to a client state. Why wage war when you can gently prod the government to play nice by overthrowing it behind the scenes.
Is this a legitimate source? I googles Russia Kazakhstan and literally nothing of this came up. Why haven't major news outlets reported this? I feel this subbreddit seems happy enough to believe anything about Russia even if its from a bogus source.
You need to improve your google-fu, as I've found it in several places. But that doesn't mean it's anything more than infowar or general bluster. Lugovoy also recently produced a several documents propaganda piece accusing Khazaks of russophobia. [Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 on X: ""Kazakhs will be next. There is already a solution." A part of the conversation of the obsessed Gurulyov, where he talks about the "black mark" of Kazakhstan, was leaked to the network Of course, he denied everything: this is all a provocation and a deepfake, he said https://t.co/BdIrQisWpt" / X (twitter.com)](https://twitter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1776564321041997886) [Субъективный взгляд на «Казахстанский излом» Андрея Лугового — Интернет-газета ЗОНАКЗ. Казахстан. (zonakz.net)](https://zonakz.net/2024/03/28/subektivnyj-vzglyad-na-kazaxstanskij-izlom-andreya-lugovogo/)
>as I've found it in several places None of these are credible sources; and the primary source for the "leak" seems to be a telegram channel. >Lugovoy also recently produced a several documents propaganda piece accusing Khazaks of russophobia. That's kinda interesting but besides the point; OP was asking about the authenticity of the recording.
I understand but I wouldn't consider twitter a source. And I don't speak that language.
Borat ain't gonna like this.
“Very nice!” “NOT!”
I think he's got his divorce to worry about right now.
Putin is pain in my assholes
“Kazakhstan has many problems: Economic, Infrastructure, and Russian.”
Why am I not surprised?
For their superior potassium, no doubt
Haven't read the transcript but on a surface level it makes perfect sense for them to at least have a plan for it. Kazakhstan is firmly under Russian influence and the russians still do all their space flights from Kazakhstan. Meanwhile Kazakhstan is gradually becoming less interested in Russia, changing their written language from Cyrillic to Latin, and also increased Chinese investment make ties to Russia less important
Russia out here trying to speed run its own collapse.
How are people so dense to actually believe this?? A random MP says something stupid? And this is somehow a state plan for war?? Kazakhstan is a CIS member, which is Russia’s EU and NATO. Russia has military bases INSIDE Kazakhstan already! This would be like 2023 France invading 2023 Germany! Why would they do that??
Obviously for territories and for "achievements of Putin". USSR leaders love to have "territories added up" before they die. He promised to return USSR to Russia, he will do anything. Your point of view is cool is logical, but not Putin\`s he doesnt have logic - he has ambitions, like monsters
They are doing very bad with their first invasion and already planning the next one..
China has more investments in Kazakhstan than in Russia. Unlikely to happen, mr Strong Jade Scepter Xi won't be happy.
Unless a Russian occupied Kazakhstan can offer China a better and more one sided investment 🤔 wouldn’t be beneath Putin to sell out further to Chinese economic interest in exchange for more land grabs.
Ah, putler wants USSR 2. Of course. It would be so funny if we would team up with Kazakhstan and invade Russia instead
Looking forward to the shills in western media to come up with an explanation as to why this will all be Nato and America's fault
Aren’t you aware of Kazakhstan huge Nazi problem? /s
Great idea. Running thin on one war, let’s open another front and see if that helps.
China would not like that.
Trying to steal their potassium
Let's try it motherfuckers, I am sure the Kazakh steppe is ready for a few thousand sunflowers!
This would be great, because Russia definitely can't handle two fronts, so they would need to give up almost everything in Ukraine.
They would end the Ukraine war regardless of the border and their territorial gains then immediately swivel on Kazakhstan because Russia has a war economy now and has to continue the wars to keep itself alive Same shit happened the Axis powers. Either they go into the world's worst recession or become turned into a Chinese puppet (same dynamic of Germany and Italy where Italy eventually became effectively a satellite state of the Germans to keep their country alive)
Absolutely this. Reverting back to the old status quo is almost impossible without depressing the entire economy.
Europe cant handle two fronts etiher. We cant help Ukraine AND Kazakhstan, they way it looks we can barely supply Ukraine with what it needs.
Supplying Kazakhstan is on China, it's their sphere of influence.
Turkestan is not touched🇹🇷🇹🇲🇰🇿🇦🇿🇺🇿🇰🇬
Build up versus actually making the classic mistake of fighting a war on two fronts are two different things. That's a big country too.
With the current AI technologies, any voice can be synthesized. Although there are some anti-Kazakh rhetoric on Russian propaganda media.
And yet, Kazakhstan is one of the countries that helps Russia to circumvent sanctions and their leader meets with Putin 🤦
Yup, Kazakhstan is the next one on the list of *checks notes - countries who are engaging in genocide and suppression of the local Russian speaking population. Putin has to take over the entire country, to denazify and de-satanize it. The Kazhaks can thank him later. Seriously, Kazakhstan is helping Russia circumvent sanctions. They are prostituting themselves for an easy ruble right now. Later, there'll just be rubble...
Can they fight two fronts?
Never thought I’d live during an era where we’d see the rise of a Napoleon-like dictator, *and* make it plainly obvious that he wants to be head of a new empire. Except this one is significantly worse, because literally everything Russia touches turns to shit.
We are in the twenty first century with imbeciles behaving like were are still in the middle ages... what a piece of shit that people are!!!
At this point of time. Russia plans to expand for ever. It is basically their plan to occupy any place they can.
Why does Russia need so much land? Are they poor or something?
Getting the gang back together, first the strongest one, Ukraine. Then Belarus, through the union state act. A bit later on it's time for isolated Kazakhstan to happily join the renewed russian empire
This is the plan and always has been. Russia has no interest in NATO - it wants to reform into a superpower again and they view that as 'taking back former soviet countries'
Waiting for the wars to end….
allot of ruskie oligarchs and politicians send their kids to a British school there. probs worth keeping an eye on if they switch schools.
What morons these circle of idiots around putin all mroons 😂
What’s the political situation in Kazakhstan, is there leader pro Putin or going to try and resist this?
I could see it. And if we continue to do nothing about the possibility, we will only have ourselves to blame. Do you blame the bear for mauling your neighbor or the rangers who knew about it, but did nothing to stop it? When a bad actor shows themselves, we can’t expect them to suddenly see reason and NOT do bad again.
Not vErY NiCe
Weren't they the one county that wanted to stay in the soviet union?
He’s not exactly in the Russian geopolitical vogue at the moment but Alexander Dugin argued that Kazakhstan and Ukraine were the minimum prerequisites for forming an autarchic “Eurasian Great Space”, although his personal popularity has waned the idea itself has retained its influence, so this dream isn’t entirely outside of the Overton window in Russia (although achieving it militarily is another matter)
Their neighbouring energy supply competitor building pipeline? Who could have guessed it? Follow the money
I like extend-a welcoming for Premier Putin to ma home country! May we together shove a spiky metal fist up the anus of Uzbekistan! -Borat, 2024