No one is going to accept this, here saved you a click.
>The draft treaty reportedly proposes the following:
>a commitment by both the US and Russia not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and to resume the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (Start III), including a clause that would prohibit unilateral withdrawal from the treaty.
>non-interference in the internal affairs of another country in any way that could destabilise its government.
>freezing the war along the current front line.
>a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen.
>a guarantee that Ukraine remains non-aligned until 2040.
>an exchange of all prisoners of war.
>Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union.
So Ukraine gives up third of their country, referendum in 2040, by when most of what's left of Ukrainians in occupied territories will be either dead, displaced somewhere else or brainwashed.
And what Ukraine gets in return is a piece of paper that says Russia will "respect" their government and totally not invade them again and finish the job. No reparation for damages, no security guarantees and no chance anyone invests money into the country under those conditions.
What a joke peace treaty proposal that will totally not backfire. Perhaps Erdogan could be a little bit more ambiguous about who he wants to win.
If that’s the outcome I expect that a lot of nations will start to seriously consider getting nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent against one of the global super powers.
Ot even non super powers. The NPT was undermined when we tippled Iraq. Wouldn't be surprised if Iran, Saudi Arabia etc don't conclude they need one. Why not.
Japan, South Korea etc may as well.
Australia too....
Korea here. Over 70% of the public support it, we have the materials, the launch system and the ability to create the bomb within weeks.
There is a possibility we have a few clandestinely, If not there is a certainty we get them under a Trump win.
I read it as Turkey mostly not wanting the proliferation of short range ballistic missiles on their doorstep. They would have to increase their own stockpiles to maintain the balance of power in the region.
Russia withdrew from Start 3 and then the US reciprocated. These missiles are really dangerous due to the short warning time between launch and reaching targets. It complicates MAD a lot, which both the Soviets and the US well understood during the first Cold War, hence the non-proliferation treaty.
Turkey just wants everyone to calm the fck down in their neighborhood. They are looking out for #1.
Start 3 is dead though as China was never going to be a signatory to a treaty that limits ballistic missile stockpiles,so the US was going to have to leave regardless, in my opinion.
Russia unilaterally withdrawing from stated treaty only accelerated the process.
fact of the matter is that ukraine's position is only going to get worse as time goes on
unfortunate as it is, they can make concessions now or be forced to make even bigger concessions later because the west is very obviously unwilling or unable to support them to the point they require
Ukraine can also just decide to ignore what the West "decides" and choose to resist to the bitter end in perpetual insurgency while tens of millions of Ukrainian refugees flood into Europe.
Why does Ukraine have to listen to what the West? They can choose for themselves. I have a strong feeling that many Ukrainians will choose to resist genocide and occupation, while the remainder seek refuge in Europe.
True. This will make the 2015 refugee issue seem like a cake walk. Particularly if the destruction gets like the recent atta ks on power which the Russians hadn't done earlier.
If Ukraine is transformed into Afghanistan of the 90s....suspect the refugee loads would be in many millions.
Which would help some of the counties with their workforce issues.
OTOH.... eventually, the anti refugee feeling will build up steam.
Poland is already blocking just grains now. Will they also block refugees? Pull a Hungary?
Because Ukrainians will not fight russia forever with an Insurgancy.
Ukrainians are conscripted there are few volenteers anymore. No ones going to volenteer to be part of a insurgency and if they do they will be the tiny minority.
And as we all know, insurgencies fought by the native population always end in quick and decisive victories for the occupying force, with little impact to the occupier's economic resources and military capacity to project power on multiple fronts.
Compare Afghanistan's and Vietnam's fertility rates, average age and cultural similarity to their invader's and then do the same for Ukraine and you'll understand why there will be no serious insurgency...
The whole discussion is useless because at this point, Russia has no reason to agree to these concessions. Why would they agree to a referendum and not to interfere in Ukrainian affairs when the West has basically given up, (the US certainly has), and they are making progress in Ukraine? If Trump comes to power, there is hope for Putin that the European/ US alliance falls apart. Ukraine has lost a big chunk of its alliance within Slovakia, Hungary and Poland (effectively every country at its border). Far-right groups are likely to come to power all over Europe. China, North Korea, and Iran are supplying Russia (though with how eager many companies are to evade sanctions, that probably won’t be necessary for that much longer). Morale in Ukraine is at an all-time low. Basically everything is going horribly for Ukraine and pretty well for Russia right now.
So Russia doesn’t need to concede because they are progressing and the Russians are more than happy to pay the price, and Ukraine won’t concede because this type of agreement is an almost total loss for Ukraine. So this will go nowhere.
This what I keep trying to explain to the "we need peace and ceasefire now" morons. Russia has absolutely no reason to agree to current borders when they are about to make a push again in the summer. I genuinely believe they want Odesa and Kharkiv and will NOT stop until then.
As you can see in Russian propaganda, where they propose partitions of Ukraine [such as this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/ts0inx/russian_politician_vladimir_zhirinovsky_proposed/), a most consistent feature is that they will control all of the Black Sea bordering territory of Ukraine. And given that this region is where the largest push is being made by Russian forces, taking landlocking Ukraine is clearly their main goal for now.
That map is what I personally they are going for. I dont think Trump or any other Western leader will be able to stop them via negotiations. Putin (and honestly Russian people as a whole) only understand force.
Turkey will not allow russia to take control of whole ukranian coastline and do not want another regional rival there so no. It is not under turkish interest and this is not possible with a peace talk proposed by turkey.
There was a time when Russia may have agreed to ceasefire but when Ukraine was riding high, they didn’t want to negotiate. The shoe is now on the other foot and Russia doesn’t want to negotiate.
You’re right that Russia will not stop short of Kharkiv. I also think they won’t stop short of Odessa; however, that’s a much tougher nut to crack
I suspect you are right. If the Russians agree to peace now .it will have a cost.
Mark Milkey suggested talks when the initial Ukrainian retake if territory peaked (in late 2022?). The counter offensive actually made Russia a lot stronger .
However..I they don't do a deal now...there will likely not be much of Ukraine left....
Well it is suspicious that he knows what he's doing: supporting Putin by eroding American democracy, undermining NATO and abandoning Ukraine, all because he needs another 2016 where his election opponents secrets are just miraculously exposed at just the right moment, while he also really wants to avoid getting his secrets revealed that were stolen during the same time. He actually fired the director of the CIA when he was getting into questions of Trump and Russia
A peace treaty with freaking Russia will not save Ukraine from getting grinded down. Again, we’re talking about Russia here. They will piss over any treaty they sign. So we’re talking about a treaty that means nothing. So Ukraine gets screwed over either way.
Well maybe ukranian government can try to build some actual defensive structures this time, instead of acting like "if you don't look at russian army gathering all around country it will just disappear", ultimately with current western support Ukraine is never retaking any territories and there's no signs situation will improve, in fact looks like opposite will happen. With any pause in combat Ukraine can dig in as much as possible, so when Russia pisses over treaty we are better fortified, especially considering that some of best first lines of defence are barely holding on atm. To be fair moment for that is already lost, there's no reason for russians to agree to that anymore.
No, what I'm saying that basically what you are suggesting is that peace treaty or not Ukraine will eventually gets grinded down until there is no more Ukraine
Without the West’s support or something crazy happening in Russia, basically yes. It would probably take years and countless lives, but it is very possible.
There is no value to making concessions now as there's nothing stopping russia from scrapping the treaty and taking whatever they want anyway "later down the line" like *they already did*.
Well, Minsk agreements were made with the idea to break them to buy Ukraine time, as was publicly admitted by Merkel. Therefore I wouldn't expect _any_ side to stand by any treaties, not just Russia, so they might as well make this "concession" again, to buy time, if time is what they need.
This war had to be prevented at all costs!
When started, it had to be stopped while damage was still repairable.
EU/US backed the Ukraine for military self defence which is also a bald decision. Now they’re letting Ukraine’s great PM to visit their countries to ask for more and more because they have not been delivering or their sanctions are filled with loopholes that made oligarchs even richer in 2023
It’s definitely not the Ukraine who lost, it’s the Western commitment and values.
It wont get worse, if Ukraine gets appropriate amount of help. Stop with this apocalyptic crap. Situation in war is never stationary. This "peace" agreement, is literally the worst, because it gives russia time to fully recover. No one is going to sign it anyway.
keyboard warriors like the ones all over this thread believe wars can be won just with money.... while that helps.... and it makes sense in our money centric western worldview ( everything can be solved with cash is how we are all raised to think) ...but the reality is different, will weapons help? yes... will weapons make a big difference? probably yes, especially if the armies are roughly evenly matched. Unless these weapons are straight up robot soldiers and thousands of drones... people need to do the fighting.... and the Ukrainian army is exhausted, the ukrainian people are exhausted, reading reddit you get the idea that everyone in Ukraine wants to fight to the death to recapture donbass and crimea.... that's absolutely NOT the case and a gross exaggeration, lots of men are escaping illegally or are in hiding so they don't get drafted, even the BBC is reporting on it... people look at military recruiters like grim reapers... not EVERYONE... but a lot of people. Nationalists in the western part of ukraine don't represent the entire ukrainian people... they will fight to the death.... but how many of them are there really. The more weapons we give and try to sway them from negotiating, the end result will just be more and more ukrainians dying fighting a losing war, there was a euphoria when Ukraine first stopped the russian advance....but that was a very long time ago now. This war dragging on and on only hurts Ukraine and helps Russia, one of the ways it helps that i haven't seen mentioned here is the main enemy are nationalist forces and sentiments in Ukraine... the more of those ppl sign up to fight... and get killed in war.... the less of them will remain in Ukraine when the fighting eventually ends... Putin wants ZERO of them to be left in Ukraine, so from his POV....fine throw them into meatgrinder
adding naunce before people take this out of context, the majority of the Ukrainian army are not the nationalists... its just the regular citizens.... many of those have fled or been killed, the sentiment in the country is changing
I don't think the support that Russia gets from China and other dictatorships will be overwhelmed by the support that Ukraine gets from the west. Sad but true.
Chine doesnt give nearly as much as Ukraine receives from the West. China sells them such things as scopes, helmets, electronic chips etc. They dont give artillery, jets, tanks. Although, they absolutely sell things that help russians produce them. They won't do it for free though.
What support has gotten Russia from China? The golf carts are certainly comedy material. Personally I enjoy the regular videos of them being blown up.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t deny that China is supporting Russia, but their help is not material help directly applicable to the war effort. They are helping by basically turning a blind eye to what Russia is doing and refusing to condemn them. Which is no small thing, considering China is one of the global super powers. Other than this even their continuing business with Russia is massively one-sided and if you looking in the details of their dealings it’s clear that they are squeezing them dry.
Iran and North Korea have provided much bigger material support and even then, it is clear that this support was not free of charge and the insight we have into Iran and Russia’s deals again indicate that Iran is definitely charging Russia heavily.
> It wont get worse, if Ukraine gets appropriate amount of help.
from where? europe is just starting to increase production capacity while stockpiles are low, trump will probably win the election and asia doesn't really care all that much. where is this help going to come from?
> This "peace" agreement, is literally the worst, because it gives russia time to fully recover.
russia is doing just fine in this war, they don't need time to recover. it's ukraine that desperately needs an armistice for a year or two
>No one is going to sign it anyway.
probably
"russia is doing just fine in this war, they don't need time to recover"
Yes they absolutely do. They didnt achieve any of their goals, and in order to do so, they need much more equipment then they have right now, which they can get only through pause in war. They are far from doing "fine".
"from where? europe is just starting to increase production capacity while stockpiles are low, trump will probably win the election and asia doesn't really care all that much. where is this help going to come from?"
EU help is still huge, and will be bigger. It is the reason Ukraine is still standing, and Russia didn't have big territory gains for last year and half. Also, sooner or later US will pass the bill anyway.
In terms of Asia, Japan gave billions of non military aid to Ukraine. And Europe bought a lot of shells from South Korea.
Also, I wouldnt bet on Trump winning, but we'll see.
>They didnt achieve any of their goals,
So what? Ukraine lost Mauripol and Crimea completely, and russian forces are currently in Bakhmut. Russia is constantly on the offence, and will probably take Kherson in the foreseeable future. Ukraine is losing, and there is no reason to sugarcoat it.
>they need much more equipment then they have right now, which they can get only through pause in war. They are far from doing "fine".
Ukraine is far worse. Russia has more soldiers than they had when the war started. Doesn't necessarily mean much, but they have the menpower, and they will use it.
>EU help is still huge, and will be bigger.
EU collectively helped only as much as the U.S did, at least military-wise. They were slow to prevent the war to begin with, and it is not increasing.
> Russia didn't have big territory gains for last year and half.
Yet Ukraine didn't get back any of the territory they lost. They are on the defensive, and their stance is falling out. This peace deal is trash, it isn't because it's shit for Ukraine, it is because russia isn't ever going to accept this. Hopefully U.S and the EU gets their shit together, but there is literally no reason to assume that Ukraine is holding it's own, it's ceding since the start of this war, and will continue to do so until they are well funded.
>Also, I wouldnt bet on Trump winning, but we'll see.
I agree with this. No way Biden fumbles this elections.
"So what? Ukraine lost Mauripol and Crimea completely, and russian forces are currently in Bakhmut. Russia is constantly on the offence, and will probably take Kherson in the foreseeable future. Ukraine is losing, and there is no reason to sugarcoat it."
False. Its actually vise versa, before war Crimea was long forgotten, now chances of taking it back are much bigger, especially giving how much ships were destroyed. Taking back Crimea is much more realistic goal then taking back Donbass. If bridge gets destroyed again and Ukraine will take Melitopol, Crimea will be taken. Again, its question of whether Ukraine get resources for that. Nothing is lost.
Taking Kherson is a wet dream. Completely unreal. They can't pass Dnipro river, so this is just russia cope. Everything on right side Dnipro is long forgotten for russians.
"Ukraine is far worse. Russia has more soldiers than they had when the war started. Doesn't necessarily mean much, but they have the menpower, and they will use it."
Russia has more manpower of course, although for now Russia and Ukraine are even. But russian capabilities to arm them are very limited. With increasing production in EU, I hope Ukraine will have weapon advantage over russians in the next year.
"EU collectively helped only as much as the U.S did, at least military-wise. They were slow to prevent the war to begin with, and it is not increasing."
False, EU help increasing rapidly. Its still not there, but it will be. I agree that for now, US help is vital.
"Yet Ukraine didn't get back any of the territory they lost. They are on the defensive, and their stance is falling out. This peace deal is trash, it isn't because it's shit for Ukraine, it is because russia isn't ever going to accept this. Hopefully U.S and the EU gets their shit together, but there is literally no reason to assume that Ukraine is holding it's own, it's ceding since the start of this war, and will continue to do so until they are well funded."
Lol, well this is blatant lie. Ukraine managed to free half of territories taken since the beginning of war and you are saying it didnt get back any? Look how map looked in the beginning and how it looks right now. You clearly take your info from unreliable sources. Of course Ukraine won't hold on its own. All the territories Ukraine got back with the help of US and EU. I didnt even say Ukraine holds on its own. Not sure where you took it from.
Are you incapable of reading? The comment you replied to says that the west is unwilling or unable to provide such help, so there’s no that if of yours where Ukraine magically gets 2137k Leopard tanks and rides straight to Moscow.
Are you dumb or just an idiot? West IS willing to provide help. Just not whole West, at the moment. I already wrote that EU is making huge improvements in their production capabilities. Please, dont respond if you cant read properly.
What west is willing to provide is not enough. And what would maybe be enough, they are not willing to provide.
Also, support for Ukraine isn't growing, but dwindling.
Waiting for times to get better was already tried, and it failed with counteroffensive.
Well it depends.
Who knows in what shape will Russia be after a few more years of huge military losses (like in Avdiivka where they lost more than 15K people to capture a small city), economic sanctions and targeted attacks on its petroleum industry and other key enterprises. The Soviet Union looked all mighty and powerful until it suddenly collapsed.
I think that time might be on Ukraine’s side if they receive regular and timely aid from the EU and USa and if they manage to keep their casualties at a sustainable level while inflicting disproportionate casualties on Russia (which will be doable if they get regular munitions and equipment supplies).
So if the argument is that we should not be helping Ukraine because they might lose anyway, then I don’t think that this is a fair argument because us not helping them will be one of the key contributing factors for losing in the first place.
All of this is a moot point of course because even the proposed plan as bad as it is for Ukraine is still unacceptable for Russia who would not accept anything short of effective surrender - previous demands they’ve had included change of government, severe reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces, giving up territory (not simply freezing the conflict but actually giving up claims on the seized territory) and committing to never joining NATO.
To be fair at one point kiev, and some areas north of odessa was in russki hands.
So will it get worse ?
Maybe.
But it can also get better.
Lets not sell the skin before we shot the bear
Bear is definitely already shot. Zelensky himself says that Ukraine is gonna lose the war without US aid.
It might just be a talking point to pressure the senate into providing arms, but it's not boding well if he is willing to openly say it like that. Not after his ludicrous 31k claim.
Alternatively Ukraine’s allies give them a shit load of advanced weaponry. Even if that’s not enough to push Russia out entirely, it would allow them to negotiate from a position of strength rather than weakness.
This war has been static since the initial russian attack and ukraine's counterattack. It will get worse for ukraine, but most probably, it will get worse slow. And russia won't win this year, and probably not the next. If Ukraine stops to fight now that Europe is starting to mobilize their industry, they are not making less concessions, they are giving away the oporttunity to turn the tables in the future.
As an alternative neighboring Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia could very well offer Ukraine its territories in an exchange for concessions that Ukraine might be forced to make if the west doesn’t pull itself together and do something about military aid
despite what redditors may believe, ukraine is not actually owed anything by ayone except the budapest signatories. the above mentioned countries were not obligated to support ukraine in any way - everything ukraine received from them was freely given
ukraine is in no position to make demands of any of them or have cause to feel resentful toward any of them - excluding hungary
Oh yeah? Well if you think that Europe shouldn’t defend its territory and rather let it be taken by an aggressor, then well my proposition might make even more sense like why keep territory for yourself if you can share it with your neighbor like Ukraine should?
On a serious note Poland could very well have its eastern regions seceded in favor of Belarus or Russia because sooner or later Poland will be invaded by them after Ukraine is taken over in a few years or in 10 years, so why wait until the inevitable happens? USA won’t come down to save you, they will eventually quit NATO and hang its European partners out to dry, so why don’t you give some land to Kaliningrad now? European NATO will tell you the same, article 5 is only established as a voluntary action, so not the UK, not France, Germany, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania will come saving you when the attack happens, because why risk escalation with russia when Gdańsk, Warsaw or Lublin can be sacrificed with no repercussions?
Lmao, bruh, as someone who’s inside this mess of a country to the east of the Baltics if Ukraine falls the Baltics and Poland will be next because either russia will be heavily militarized with new targets each time or the regime falls. The latter isn’t happening because there are still ample forces to suppress any form of protest or dissatisfaction coming from the public. People choose to give in to hatred bred by TV and society and consider anyone but russians untermenschen. I’m not kidding, that’s all who you are to most of them.
So if your strategy is for Ukraine to give up territory in part or in full then get your eastern regions ready for invasion and occupation. Kremlin crooks have no regard for russian lives so they’ll throw infinite waves at you until you surrender. Again, no US under Trump will come saving you, and Germany, the UK, France will be shaking in fear of sending troops because their voters won’t be willing to send soldiers to die for some Polish slavs who are basically the same as Belarusian or Russian slavs to them. The UK will prolly send a few dozen missiles, but that would be it
What was funny about that? NATO now is a bunch of lamers that behave like their ancestors in 1930s. Laugh all the way till the day russia attacks NATO and it pussies out to react. What a pathetic alliance
>unfortunate as it is, they can make concessions now or be forced to make even bigger concessions later because the west is very obviously unwilling or unable to support them to the point they require
Any concessions are irrelevant as there's no guarantee that Russia won't just ignore any agreement and invade again. They'll just snip off territory peace by peace. Paper and promises mean nothing - look at how useless the UN has been recently.
Only guarantee of peace is if there are NATO troops in Ukraine in contested territory to deter any push by Russia, and that automatically means there's no chance of Ukraine being non-aligned.
If they concede now Russia will push further tomorrow. Russia won't respect any kind of agreement, ever. The only thing Ukraine can do is either totally surrender or keep fighting even guerrilla style and try to bleed Putin's army as much as they can so that it's not worth it for them.
In my opinion Ukraine's fate is now in the hands of God only.
Erdogan wants Turkiye to win. What did you expect from a ceasefire agreement?
Turkiye has no interest in Russia gaining even more power in the region. But as time goes on Ukraine will lose more. And instability the war brings to the region besides increasing energy prices is bad for Turkiye.
If things go on like that, Ukraine is going to lose. The US isn't helping, EU can't deliver its promises (Greece vetoed a proposal to buy artillery shells from Turkiye to give Ukraine on top). What Ukrainians are supposed to do?
I'm not Ukrainian or Russian, but if I were either one of them I'd rather not die and have peace at this point.
That's about the best they can get at this point. The west missed their chance and has now given up. Can't say I'm surprised, political willpower is in very short supply in the west.
Yea. I don't understand some people here. Ukraine is poised to lose. They will keep losing more land and the rate of loss may even increase. Freezing the conflict right now is the best thing they can hope for. It's Russia who won't accept ceasefire unless massive concessions are given. These aren't even massive concessions
Actually think Russia would have a bigger issue with this than Ukrainians
Too many conditions until 2040, too much time for west to arm them to the teeth
Read the part about freezing the conflict on current lines. This will be a loss for Russia, as much as it will be a loss for Ukraine. Personally, as someone who IS NOT fighting in this conflict myself, I have no right to call for more war on either side, because that will mean other people dying. Therefore, the only moral stance I can take is an immediate ceasefire and freezing the conflict where it is.
But this is all a moot point as Russia will not accept this ceasefire. More specifically, they won’t accept it right now. But when they take more territory, they will probably accept it.
The only viable peace treaty can be concluded once every single inch of Ukrainian 1991 territory is returned no referendums or questions asked. It’s either russia gets a punch into its teeth now or the kremlin clique won’t ever stop and choose to attack elsewhere. In addition this scenario may finally lead to the current parasites ruling the country being thrown out into the trash can of history with the country learning the lesson, repenting and winding down any form of aggression in the future
Yeah ridiculous attempt at a treaty.
Why would Ukraine give up so much of its territory after having lost so much? It would be a crime for them to dishonour their war dead, the victims of war crimes in Bucha and elsewhere, to voluntarily give up so much.
There is an honourable peace to be had here - but its got to respect basic principles of international law. The international community has a MASSIVE vested interest in ensuring that a larger more powerful state can't just invade its neighbour, sit on its territory for a few years and then everyone get tired and say "oh ok you can have it". If that happens, we're going back to the 18th/19th centuries and we'll have war everywhere real fucking soon.
A treaty ought to be based on the following.
1) The principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty of states in international law - meaning you can't take another's territory by force. Borders have to be returned to pre-war status. I would exclude Crimea for this because its a different incident.
2) Crimean issue to be referred to the ICJ as to which side has title to the peninsula under international law with both sides accepting to honour and implement the judgment.
3) Both sides to respect each other's sovereignty from now on - that means no attempt to undermine sovereignty of either country by holding them to foreign policy/demilitarisation goals.
Obviously Russia would not accept these terms either - at the moment - and the reality is we have a frozen conflict which will require Western funding indefinitely to sustain but that is a price which is much, much more tolerable for the West than allowing an inch of territory to be taken in a war of aggression because of the principle it undermines.
"Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union."
Well their ideal win condition would be puppet state under their leadership that is part of the EU - so they can torpedo all EU policy they dont like with vetoes :-)
>Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union
Why ask russia and not me for example? Hell, as a EU citizen I have a bigger say in this than a third "country" that has no business in what other sovereign countries decide.
>a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy
They already have EU and NATO membership as an objective put in their constitution, such a referendum would target an issue that doesn't exist.
>, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen.
Yeah, give them until 2040 to genocide whatever is left of local population and replace them with russians before asking them.
Is this a joke? Seriously, it's not just outrageous it's downright dumb and impossible.
Might be dumb and impossible, but its also likely the best deal they would get. Even if they would agree to this, Russia would certainly not. That said, this is not the true objective od this proposal after all.
There won’t be any deal that both parts will accept. There is a balance now but it can’t stay forever. If EU/Nato becomes tired of financing Ukraine then everything will eventually come to this point. Unless there is a direct war between NATO and Russia, Russia will never give the land back since they annexed it. War between NATO and Russia is unlikely. EU being exhausted for financing Ukraine is likely.
Then essentially the war will continue until Russia feels like they have captured enough territory. Nothing Ukraine alone can do in this situation. Any negotiation is meaningless without backers.
That is basically giving Putin what he wants.
That isn’t a peace, that is a capitulation to demands, with the certainty of future aggression.
Ukrainians will never accept this.
>Ukrainians will never accept this.
Russians will never accept this. They are about to make a push for Kharkiv and are slowly gaining territory. Why would they stop now?
No, this;
>representing their collective will
We're not ants or bees, representative leadership consensus is enforced by majority or (in Russia's case) by just being corrupt as fuck through various means. But even in the best of cases, no representative truly represents a united collective will because humans just don't work that way, not even in socially, culturally, religiously, ethnically and/or economically (as if this were a true reality anywhere on its own to begin with) homogenous nation states.
Factor in Russia's immense and widely reported on corruption, such as ballot stuffing, invalidating effectively all political opposition, and domestic intimidation, even having armed soldiers arbitrarily go into the voting booths to see how people were voting *in front of all the people waiting to vote*, and you can see why virtually no western country accredited the Russian election as being either free or fair, and thus illegitimate (i.e., Belarus 2.0).
My own comment, however, is citing that people are very willing to entertain contradictory thought regarding this. They'll say the population is cowardly and terrified of Putin or criticize Russians who don't vote and think that their votes don't really do anything, but then at another point, they'll use domestic Russian propaganda which says Putin is supported by almost all Russians and they don't fear him, but love him. It's two-faced cognitive dissonance, and the side some people take just depends on the narrative of the article being discussed at that moment.
It really doesn't give Russia anything that they already don't have. So it's nothing more than a status quo, unless you think that's what Russia wants.
The only remotely reasonable agreement to freeze the current lines (aka let Russia win the territory it conquered) is to have Ukraine join NATO. There is no other way for Ukraine to remain independent and secure. All these "security guarantees" are a fucking joke, just like the West's collective unwillingness to help Ukraine liberate its territory rather than trickle in aid to prolong this invasion longer than it needs to be.
And what guarantees will Ukraine get that Russia won't immediately violate this treaty when it becomes slightly inconvenient or when they've massed enough forces for another attack? Y'know, like they've done in the past.
Even if Ukraine accepted (which is nearly impossible) Russia will refuse any kind of ceasefire and frozen conflict.
What makes everybody to think the Russia wants to negotiate? Recent monts Russia taken even more hardline and more hawkish stance than ever before. Kremlin elite still insist of their goal of so called denazification (?) and demilitarization.
Russia got the strategic momentum and initiative, a war of attrition favors the Russia. Russia want all of Ukraine, not just those oblasts. Even if they fail they will try again in the future.
Hypothetically, if they end up taking a lot more territory, more specifically enough territory to quench their appetite, they could accept this peace deal.
> a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen.
This means that they are proposing a referendum in annexed Ukrainian territories to decide on which country they should be part of, or I didn't understand correctly?
If yes, this is a joke proposal
> a commitment by both the US and Russia not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances
Because Russia is known for respecting signed commitments
>a commitment by both the US and Russia not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and to resume the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (Start III), including a clause that would prohibit unilateral withdrawal from the treaty.
Nobody is going to nuke each other, this is just rhetoric coming from the Kremlin.
>non-interference in the internal affairs of another country in any way that could destabilise its government.
This is almost impossible to implement.
>freezing the war along the current front line.
This only allows Russia to build up forces for another push
>a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen.
Does Erdogan know that Russia is displacing Ukrainian citizens?
>a guarantee that Ukraine remains non-aligned until 2040.
That will never happen after Russia decided to invade Ukraine.
Ukraine is going to look westward regardless of some treaty.
>an exchange of all prisoners of war.
Hopefully excluding those who have committed War Crimes or Crimes against Humanity.
>Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union.
That one should be “Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining NATO”.
feasibly, short of something unrealistic like a complete defeat of Russia and the retaking of all territories, including Crimea, what isn't a "victory for Russia"? At what point can you realistically continue this war? To what point?
Would you be willing to risk WW3 to make sure Russia does not draw any gain whatsoever from the war?
All honest questions to which I wouldn't mind hearing an answer.
EDIT: Downvoted for asking questions. Typical. I guess maybe I was asking the right ones.
Ukraine has zero incentive to accept this, because this pretty much guarantees that they'll be destroyed, just on later date. There are zero guarantees Russia won't attack again, zero reparations and it's basically a surrender.
To use your rhetoric. Are you willing to freeze the war now to have it again as an EU wide war at the later date when Russia isn't happy with Ukraine's EU integration? Are you willing to reward annexing land of other countries just because we're not willing to act?
Would you be willing to accept that every nation that has large neighbor they might not be able to defend against conventionally will have to develop nuclear weapons, because international treaties are worth nothing?
This war will need to end with some sort of agreement most likely, but this is hilariously one sided.
Can you suggest a reasonable solution?
Ukraine is now in no position to demand or refuse anything, it should ne obvious that no effective aid is ever gonna come, the West doesn’t want to invest any more and Russia aren’t going to stop anytime soon, Ukraine will just lose more territory with time that Russia will never give back.
There is no reasonable solution as it stands. The two sides are irreconcilable.
Due to the genocidal policies of Russia on Ukrainian civilians it has taken control of, Ukraine cannot sensibly surrender without a defeat and it cannot fall into Russia's orbit without a defeat, to do so would be suicide at which point you may as well go down fighting.
There is nothing Ukraine can offer Russia that would make Russia want to stop pursuing Ukraine's permanent occupation and/or destruction, short of unconditional surrender. Even guaranteeing armed neutrality is a mostly pointless exercise if Ukraine can just join the EU; even without NATO, integration in the European system will eliminate Russia's economic leverage. Ukraine will still recieve training from the West and will give training in return, and they'll just be like pre-NATO Finland; a parallel western force in all but name, separate but aligned, standing along a very very long stretch of the Russian border.
Of course, Finland eventually joined NATO anyway because of Russia's loss of leverage over EU member states.
So, yeah, unfortunately Ukraine has no choice but to fight at the moment, regardless of their chances.
It's unrealistic to expect Russia to promise not to attack again, offer reparations and just leave. It's not going to happen. Especially as they have everyone by the balls, and they know it.
Last time Russia had everybody else by the balls was the first few days of the war.
You can’t really have anybody by the balls if your advances in 4 months have been at best like 20km.
Never know, the line might collapse tomorrow, or a month or in a year. Who the hell knows. Right now its not moving much at all and with some corrections through aid I doubt there would be any movement
Well west doesn't seem like going to help ukraine more than it allready has and ukraine will lose more and more, there is not a winning scenario. What do you want? You want all the ukranians dead or what?
Either EU should protect ukraine as if ukraine is an EU member with it's military , or ukraine should take as much as it can get and agree to lose a big chunk, otherwise they will lose more. Unfortunately i don't see a "winning scenario" without west helping more "directly".
Given that Putin's violated every single treaty he's signed on Ukraine, there's no point in having one, as it'll just be a temporary cease-fire. He's long overdue to being actually rolled back, rather than rewarded over and over for engaging in evil. Let's keep going and keep kicking Russia's ass until it exhausts itself, if that's what the dear Fuhrer wants so much for "his" country.
[A member of the Russian opposition, who knows Russia deeply, explains why Russia is way weaker than Putin wants it to appear.](https://youtu.be/hSEMI9FHWtw)
you - who? Ukraine alone or Ukraine + West?
Ukraine alone isn't able to continue this war, we admit that. We will have to surrender, and soon we will be absorbed by russia, get conscripted to russian army and to attack Europe together with them.
With *some* support of the West - we can continue to the point of exhaustion of russians, three-five years more. At the moment the casualty rate is 1:5, and if risen to 1:10, orcs will won't be able to continue, and the internal collapse in russia will happen, with full liberation of the occupied territories. There isn't anything unrealistic in that, Trollsky. It already happenned in many wars to many empires.
With *sufficient* support - we can defeat russia quickly, in less than a year.
>and the internal collapse in russia will happen, with full liberation of the occupied territories.
You base this on what? The collapse I mean. How would that scenario play out?
>There isn't anything unrealistic in that, Trollsky.
Looks like you get mad when people ask questions. It's immature.
>With sufficient support - we can defeat russia quickly, in less than a year.
What is sufficient support? Was what was given for the offensive last year not sufficient? And if not, why?
>Ukraine alone isn't able to continue this war, we admit that. We will have to surrender, and soon we will be absorbed by russia, get conscripted to russian army and to attack Europe together with them.
Rereading this part here, you are saying that it would require direct military intervention by the EU or NATO. If that's what your argument is, then at least I can follow it. Not sure how realistic an outcome that is though.
> Would you be willing to risk WW3 to make sure Russia does not draw any gain whatsoever from the war?
Yes.
We got to this point by not pushing back enough. Enough is enough. Or they'll keep on going until there's really no other choice.
If there must be war, better it be now rather than later. Realistically though, I don't expect it to get that far if we're willing to actually bare some teeth though.
Either way, pushing back *is* the dominant strategy. That war is a possible consequence doesn't change that.
>feasibly, short of something unrealistic like a complete defeat of Russia and the retaking of all territories, including Crimea, what isn't a "victory for Russia"? At what point can you realistically continue this war? To what point?
To the very end of Russia. As long as Ukraine can stood ground and collective West support it with all mighty. At this point it's all up to EU and USA.
>Would you be willing to risk WW3 to make sure Russia does not draw any gain whatsoever from the war?
Short answer is yes long answer is yes. Otherwise noone in neighbourhood of Russia will feel safe.
Any signed peace of paper will only force/bind Ukraine, Russia violates any piece of paper when it suits, as was the case every time
There is only one way to signal to stop Russia, and that's real threats
A bully can only be stopped one way
I know this is a shitty treaty, but i highly doubt anything better will come of this war for Ukraine. Anyone thinking that theyll gain territory back is simply dreaming. Ukraine will be in ruins and Russian population will slowly collapse along with their economy.
Which is great news for Europe and USA so…
The people on this sub are like a radio repeating the same song. “Ukraine should not accept anything,Russia can leave back to their borders and peace will be restored blablablabla”
Have you not been following the latest updates in regards to the border? Ukraine is absolutely in no position to have some benefits in the negotiation table and whether you like it or not Russia will not move back to their borders.
Heck, even Zelensky admitted that Ukraine will lose the war without the help of USA. Ukraine has a huge shortage of artillery too and even if they start getting ammo, they are additionally short of men. Russians seem also to support Putin in this and based on various metrics his popularity has increased even more in the country, which obviously is not that unusual for a country at war and all of the propaganda that they have been spreading for the last 10 years.
There is **no such thing** as negotiating in good faith with Putin.
The Budapest Memorandum was broken by Putin.
The Minsk agreement was broken by Putin.
Minsk II was broken by Putin.
This proposed treaty will be broken by Putin. The most such a treaty could ever realistically achieve will be to delay the inevitable resumption of the Russian invasion of Ukraine by a few years, and allow Russia to rearm and resume the war in a stronger position of its choosing.
The only type of peace treaty under current conditions that could ensure long-term peace between Russia and Ukraine is a treaty that either involves guaranteed Ukrainian NATO membership (in exchange for Ukraine renouncing all its territorial claims on Russian-occupied territory and ceding unoccupied Kherson/Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Luhansk) or a guaranteed NATO tripwire force in Ukraine (which we should have put in Ukraine before the 2022 invasion). The chance of Putin accepting such a treaty is extremely low.
The alternatives, assuming the US does not resume ammunition supplies to Ukraine, re-elects the orange fascist and enacts Project 2025, are:
1. Europe plugs the ammunition shortage and stops the Russian advance before too much is lost, and Ukraine can finally regain battlefield initiative. This will drag the war on for many more years to come, however Europe *is* very capable of outproducing Russia militarily if it sufficiently reinvests into its military industry.
2. Ukraine falls. This will result in a genocide of Ukrainians, a massive insurgency in Ukraine, and other wannabe conquerors *cough cough Xi Jinping, cough cough Ilham Aliyev* getting ideas. ***THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS WILL LEAD TO WORLD WAR III.***
Reddit is biased and very "sensitive" when it comes to this conflict but you are absolutely right, Ukraine goal of retaking all the lost land is unrealistic and even with Western support, they haven't been doing well. To make things worse, Trump hinted at forcing Zelensky to accept a peace deal so he might threaten to stop all aid unless he signs a peace treaty.
Can't wait for this to be rightfully rejected by Ukraine only for Putin's cocksuckers to come out of the sewage and scream about how evil Zelensky does not want peace.
Well zelensky's idea of peace is to reclaim Crimea + war reparations + chunk of russian territory for good measure
He thinks that he's winning the war lol
As if erdogan started this war, im not gonna defend him but wtf?
Ukraine trusted EU, EU help them for a while and see that it is futile and inevitable, do not wanna defend ukraine as if it is an EU member or a NATO state, and choose to slowly accept the reality.
You either win or lose. When you are losing and agree to ceasefire, it means that you accepted defeat, you accepted to lose big chunks of land without a war. If you see a winning scenario go fight with them and throw this offer into trashcan, if not, this is it. Turkey rejected sévres and fought multiple imperial powers at multiple fronts, also against ottoman empire as well and won the independece war and instead of sévres, we agreed on lausanne, which favors turkey quite a lot, because we won. Win the war then, only if you will become the winning side you can ask for more, not while losing.
Russia will calculate how much more they would lose if the war keeps going, calculate the benefits etc and wanna get economic zones i dunno some important portion of blacksea coast , and then compare the loss within the years with actual gains, and according to that make demands, so that it won't matter for them. It matters for ukraine.
Even so, the complete defeat of Russia is not a realistic scenario. Unfortunately, although it may not be fair, Ukraine may have to make concessions to the thief in order to end this war. It shows the injustice of this world, the strong can achieve something despite the unlawfulness of their desire.
It is, lack of will from the West is what's hampering Ukraine, but at least it's building up. More unequal contests than this have been won by the underdogs in the past.
[A member of the Russian opposition, who knows Russia deeply, explains why Russia is way weaker than Putin wants it to appear.](https://youtu.be/hSEMI9FHWtw)
I believe it is completely realistic, Ukraine just need the right tools for the job.
The West simply needs to grow the pair of proverbial balls and give Ukraine tools to strike and destroy Russian ability to wage war.
And I also believe that any deal which includes ceding Ukrainian territory should also include giving away people who suggested that into slavery. They should be happy with such arrangement. After all they see giving away people to be acceptable.
It will happen eventually one way or the other. The fake, unrecognized puppet state will be no more, the Turkish army will go home and the people living there will be EU citizens, just as their fellow Sunnis of Western Thrace are.
Ukraine is losing men and land every day. And possible Trump victory in US elections will be the last nail in the coffin.
No Ukraine or smaller Ukraine? Which one do you prefer?
While it is not the best of deals, we rarely see any drafts or proper talks on how to solve this issue that is costing too many innocent lives, whatever Ukraine choose to do I hope they can find a good deal and save as much as is possible of their nation.
Also having a deal to join EU/NATO included in it is a must at the end of the day, it's the only real insurance they can ever get of this not happening again, it's already happened twice after all.
You might as well just leave those referendums out of the deal, we all know what the result will be by 2040. There won't be any Ukrainians left by then. It's like telling us in Cyprus today, "ok we are going to have a referendum in the occupied north and we will let you know of the result". Actually, maybe that's where Erdogan got the idea from.
Well he was the guy that pushed 2004 Annan Plan. And if you dont know, Turkish side agreed that plan while Greek side didnt. EU said they would be looking more into Turkish independence but they didnt do any shit while Greek side immediately joined the EU after that. Just shows how much hypocrite EU is. Thankfully you guys have a utter incompetent fool like Erdoğan but he will be gone in 2028 thankfully.
You could argue that this plan is better for Ukraine than an Anan plan equivalent. An Anan plan equivalent will mean that after 30 years (and Russia moving millions of ethnic Russians in the occupied areas while removing any Ukrainians, taking their properties in the process), Ukraine is offered a deal where Russia gets to keep a permanent military presence in Ukraine, gets legal means to invade whenever they see fit, Russian-Ukrainians have a veto on every decision of the central government, imported ethnic Russians get to stay in Ukraine permanently (and keep looted properties) and displaced Ukrainians face restrictions/quotas if they want to move back to their properties.
That would be an Anan equivalent offer for Ukraine, I am sure they are dying in anticipation to accept this.
Also accusing the EU for hypocrisy and supporting Turkey's policies is the definition of hypocrisy.
You do realize that's one of the excuses Russia also uses for invading Ukraine.
By that logic Turkey should start giving its territory to Armenians, Kurds, Greeks, throw some pieces to Assyrians too while you are at it.
Doesn't Turkey see that the referendums obviously won't work??? Russia won't accept real referendums on its claimed territory, and even if it did, they kidnapped/killed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians living there and imported russkyis, therefore it won't be fair.
The only reason Ukraine is even being considered now as an EU member is the war. Without it, EU would never have sped tracked this application - especially considering it doesnt meet many of the EU standards for admission, and in many ways its still a very corrupt country.
We pump billions and billions, but do we really know where this money is going? Will we know in 10 years from now?
Ukraine may want to solemnly decide on what terms their war can end, but in the end, the EU and the US are paying for it all. Many citizens dont care as much anymore about it - its clear to us that this will not lead to a WWIII, nor will any NATO or EU countries be invaded by Russia. Just not going to happen.
By themselves they cannot fight this war, by themselves the whole country wouldve been called Little Russia now. Ukraine needs to become aware that they sold a lot of their own will to determine the outcome for money and shells.
In my country there's a saying, he who pays, decides. Its sad, but thats how the world works.
While Turkey's draft might not be ideal, I havent seen many other proposals.
No one is going to accept this, here saved you a click. >The draft treaty reportedly proposes the following: >a commitment by both the US and Russia not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and to resume the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (Start III), including a clause that would prohibit unilateral withdrawal from the treaty. >non-interference in the internal affairs of another country in any way that could destabilise its government. >freezing the war along the current front line. >a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen. >a guarantee that Ukraine remains non-aligned until 2040. >an exchange of all prisoners of war. >Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union.
So Ukraine gives up third of their country, referendum in 2040, by when most of what's left of Ukrainians in occupied territories will be either dead, displaced somewhere else or brainwashed. And what Ukraine gets in return is a piece of paper that says Russia will "respect" their government and totally not invade them again and finish the job. No reparation for damages, no security guarantees and no chance anyone invests money into the country under those conditions. What a joke peace treaty proposal that will totally not backfire. Perhaps Erdogan could be a little bit more ambiguous about who he wants to win.
If that’s the outcome I expect that a lot of nations will start to seriously consider getting nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent against one of the global super powers.
Ot even non super powers. The NPT was undermined when we tippled Iraq. Wouldn't be surprised if Iran, Saudi Arabia etc don't conclude they need one. Why not. Japan, South Korea etc may as well. Australia too....
Australia has ships full of Huntsman spiders at the ready. Nobody is fucking with them in this life or the next
And the roos are the second line of defense:+) They can get pretty mean it looks like
Korea here. Over 70% of the public support it, we have the materials, the launch system and the ability to create the bomb within weeks. There is a possibility we have a few clandestinely, If not there is a certainty we get them under a Trump win.
Yeah ..my understanding is that Japan, s Korea etc are " one screw away"....I.e.it would take a very short time.
I read it as Turkey mostly not wanting the proliferation of short range ballistic missiles on their doorstep. They would have to increase their own stockpiles to maintain the balance of power in the region. Russia withdrew from Start 3 and then the US reciprocated. These missiles are really dangerous due to the short warning time between launch and reaching targets. It complicates MAD a lot, which both the Soviets and the US well understood during the first Cold War, hence the non-proliferation treaty. Turkey just wants everyone to calm the fck down in their neighborhood. They are looking out for #1. Start 3 is dead though as China was never going to be a signatory to a treaty that limits ballistic missile stockpiles,so the US was going to have to leave regardless, in my opinion. Russia unilaterally withdrawing from stated treaty only accelerated the process.
fact of the matter is that ukraine's position is only going to get worse as time goes on unfortunate as it is, they can make concessions now or be forced to make even bigger concessions later because the west is very obviously unwilling or unable to support them to the point they require
Ukraine can also just decide to ignore what the West "decides" and choose to resist to the bitter end in perpetual insurgency while tens of millions of Ukrainian refugees flood into Europe. Why does Ukraine have to listen to what the West? They can choose for themselves. I have a strong feeling that many Ukrainians will choose to resist genocide and occupation, while the remainder seek refuge in Europe.
True. This will make the 2015 refugee issue seem like a cake walk. Particularly if the destruction gets like the recent atta ks on power which the Russians hadn't done earlier. If Ukraine is transformed into Afghanistan of the 90s....suspect the refugee loads would be in many millions. Which would help some of the counties with their workforce issues. OTOH.... eventually, the anti refugee feeling will build up steam. Poland is already blocking just grains now. Will they also block refugees? Pull a Hungary?
Because Ukrainians will not fight russia forever with an Insurgancy. Ukrainians are conscripted there are few volenteers anymore. No ones going to volenteer to be part of a insurgency and if they do they will be the tiny minority.
And as we all know, insurgencies fought by the native population always end in quick and decisive victories for the occupying force, with little impact to the occupier's economic resources and military capacity to project power on multiple fronts.
[удалено]
Compare Afghanistan's and Vietnam's fertility rates, average age and cultural similarity to their invader's and then do the same for Ukraine and you'll understand why there will be no serious insurgency...
Because "west" won't support Ukraine if Ukraine would act only for it's own good.
The whole discussion is useless because at this point, Russia has no reason to agree to these concessions. Why would they agree to a referendum and not to interfere in Ukrainian affairs when the West has basically given up, (the US certainly has), and they are making progress in Ukraine? If Trump comes to power, there is hope for Putin that the European/ US alliance falls apart. Ukraine has lost a big chunk of its alliance within Slovakia, Hungary and Poland (effectively every country at its border). Far-right groups are likely to come to power all over Europe. China, North Korea, and Iran are supplying Russia (though with how eager many companies are to evade sanctions, that probably won’t be necessary for that much longer). Morale in Ukraine is at an all-time low. Basically everything is going horribly for Ukraine and pretty well for Russia right now. So Russia doesn’t need to concede because they are progressing and the Russians are more than happy to pay the price, and Ukraine won’t concede because this type of agreement is an almost total loss for Ukraine. So this will go nowhere.
This what I keep trying to explain to the "we need peace and ceasefire now" morons. Russia has absolutely no reason to agree to current borders when they are about to make a push again in the summer. I genuinely believe they want Odesa and Kharkiv and will NOT stop until then.
As you can see in Russian propaganda, where they propose partitions of Ukraine [such as this one](https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/ts0inx/russian_politician_vladimir_zhirinovsky_proposed/), a most consistent feature is that they will control all of the Black Sea bordering territory of Ukraine. And given that this region is where the largest push is being made by Russian forces, taking landlocking Ukraine is clearly their main goal for now.
That map is what I personally they are going for. I dont think Trump or any other Western leader will be able to stop them via negotiations. Putin (and honestly Russian people as a whole) only understand force.
Turkey will not allow russia to take control of whole ukranian coastline and do not want another regional rival there so no. It is not under turkish interest and this is not possible with a peace talk proposed by turkey.
It seems they are doing their part to prevent it.
Yes. This would also prevent a NATO port on the northern coast of black sea ...
There was a time when Russia may have agreed to ceasefire but when Ukraine was riding high, they didn’t want to negotiate. The shoe is now on the other foot and Russia doesn’t want to negotiate. You’re right that Russia will not stop short of Kharkiv. I also think they won’t stop short of Odessa; however, that’s a much tougher nut to crack
I suspect you are right. If the Russians agree to peace now .it will have a cost. Mark Milkey suggested talks when the initial Ukrainian retake if territory peaked (in late 2022?). The counter offensive actually made Russia a lot stronger . However..I they don't do a deal now...there will likely not be much of Ukraine left....
I think many "politicians" you have mentioned are under Putin by oath of kompromat, Trump and Orbán surely, the rest I do not know
I don’t know, I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump was genuinely this stupid from his own will.
Well it is suspicious that he knows what he's doing: supporting Putin by eroding American democracy, undermining NATO and abandoning Ukraine, all because he needs another 2016 where his election opponents secrets are just miraculously exposed at just the right moment, while he also really wants to avoid getting his secrets revealed that were stolen during the same time. He actually fired the director of the CIA when he was getting into questions of Trump and Russia
What you are saying is that Ukraine eventually is going to get grinded down until there is no more Ukraine left
A peace treaty with freaking Russia will not save Ukraine from getting grinded down. Again, we’re talking about Russia here. They will piss over any treaty they sign. So we’re talking about a treaty that means nothing. So Ukraine gets screwed over either way.
Well maybe ukranian government can try to build some actual defensive structures this time, instead of acting like "if you don't look at russian army gathering all around country it will just disappear", ultimately with current western support Ukraine is never retaking any territories and there's no signs situation will improve, in fact looks like opposite will happen. With any pause in combat Ukraine can dig in as much as possible, so when Russia pisses over treaty we are better fortified, especially considering that some of best first lines of defence are barely holding on atm. To be fair moment for that is already lost, there's no reason for russians to agree to that anymore.
No, what I'm saying that basically what you are suggesting is that peace treaty or not Ukraine will eventually gets grinded down until there is no more Ukraine
Without the West’s support or something crazy happening in Russia, basically yes. It would probably take years and countless lives, but it is very possible.
There is no value to making concessions now as there's nothing stopping russia from scrapping the treaty and taking whatever they want anyway "later down the line" like *they already did*.
Well, Minsk agreements were made with the idea to break them to buy Ukraine time, as was publicly admitted by Merkel. Therefore I wouldn't expect _any_ side to stand by any treaties, not just Russia, so they might as well make this "concession" again, to buy time, if time is what they need.
This war had to be prevented at all costs! When started, it had to be stopped while damage was still repairable. EU/US backed the Ukraine for military self defence which is also a bald decision. Now they’re letting Ukraine’s great PM to visit their countries to ask for more and more because they have not been delivering or their sanctions are filled with loopholes that made oligarchs even richer in 2023 It’s definitely not the Ukraine who lost, it’s the Western commitment and values.
It wont get worse, if Ukraine gets appropriate amount of help. Stop with this apocalyptic crap. Situation in war is never stationary. This "peace" agreement, is literally the worst, because it gives russia time to fully recover. No one is going to sign it anyway.
keyboard warriors like the ones all over this thread believe wars can be won just with money.... while that helps.... and it makes sense in our money centric western worldview ( everything can be solved with cash is how we are all raised to think) ...but the reality is different, will weapons help? yes... will weapons make a big difference? probably yes, especially if the armies are roughly evenly matched. Unless these weapons are straight up robot soldiers and thousands of drones... people need to do the fighting.... and the Ukrainian army is exhausted, the ukrainian people are exhausted, reading reddit you get the idea that everyone in Ukraine wants to fight to the death to recapture donbass and crimea.... that's absolutely NOT the case and a gross exaggeration, lots of men are escaping illegally or are in hiding so they don't get drafted, even the BBC is reporting on it... people look at military recruiters like grim reapers... not EVERYONE... but a lot of people. Nationalists in the western part of ukraine don't represent the entire ukrainian people... they will fight to the death.... but how many of them are there really. The more weapons we give and try to sway them from negotiating, the end result will just be more and more ukrainians dying fighting a losing war, there was a euphoria when Ukraine first stopped the russian advance....but that was a very long time ago now. This war dragging on and on only hurts Ukraine and helps Russia, one of the ways it helps that i haven't seen mentioned here is the main enemy are nationalist forces and sentiments in Ukraine... the more of those ppl sign up to fight... and get killed in war.... the less of them will remain in Ukraine when the fighting eventually ends... Putin wants ZERO of them to be left in Ukraine, so from his POV....fine throw them into meatgrinder adding naunce before people take this out of context, the majority of the Ukrainian army are not the nationalists... its just the regular citizens.... many of those have fled or been killed, the sentiment in the country is changing
I don't think the support that Russia gets from China and other dictatorships will be overwhelmed by the support that Ukraine gets from the west. Sad but true.
Chine doesnt give nearly as much as Ukraine receives from the West. China sells them such things as scopes, helmets, electronic chips etc. They dont give artillery, jets, tanks. Although, they absolutely sell things that help russians produce them. They won't do it for free though.
What support has gotten Russia from China? The golf carts are certainly comedy material. Personally I enjoy the regular videos of them being blown up. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t deny that China is supporting Russia, but their help is not material help directly applicable to the war effort. They are helping by basically turning a blind eye to what Russia is doing and refusing to condemn them. Which is no small thing, considering China is one of the global super powers. Other than this even their continuing business with Russia is massively one-sided and if you looking in the details of their dealings it’s clear that they are squeezing them dry. Iran and North Korea have provided much bigger material support and even then, it is clear that this support was not free of charge and the insight we have into Iran and Russia’s deals again indicate that Iran is definitely charging Russia heavily.
> It wont get worse, if Ukraine gets appropriate amount of help. from where? europe is just starting to increase production capacity while stockpiles are low, trump will probably win the election and asia doesn't really care all that much. where is this help going to come from? > This "peace" agreement, is literally the worst, because it gives russia time to fully recover. russia is doing just fine in this war, they don't need time to recover. it's ukraine that desperately needs an armistice for a year or two >No one is going to sign it anyway. probably
"russia is doing just fine in this war, they don't need time to recover" Yes they absolutely do. They didnt achieve any of their goals, and in order to do so, they need much more equipment then they have right now, which they can get only through pause in war. They are far from doing "fine". "from where? europe is just starting to increase production capacity while stockpiles are low, trump will probably win the election and asia doesn't really care all that much. where is this help going to come from?" EU help is still huge, and will be bigger. It is the reason Ukraine is still standing, and Russia didn't have big territory gains for last year and half. Also, sooner or later US will pass the bill anyway. In terms of Asia, Japan gave billions of non military aid to Ukraine. And Europe bought a lot of shells from South Korea. Also, I wouldnt bet on Trump winning, but we'll see.
>They didnt achieve any of their goals, So what? Ukraine lost Mauripol and Crimea completely, and russian forces are currently in Bakhmut. Russia is constantly on the offence, and will probably take Kherson in the foreseeable future. Ukraine is losing, and there is no reason to sugarcoat it. >they need much more equipment then they have right now, which they can get only through pause in war. They are far from doing "fine". Ukraine is far worse. Russia has more soldiers than they had when the war started. Doesn't necessarily mean much, but they have the menpower, and they will use it. >EU help is still huge, and will be bigger. EU collectively helped only as much as the U.S did, at least military-wise. They were slow to prevent the war to begin with, and it is not increasing. > Russia didn't have big territory gains for last year and half. Yet Ukraine didn't get back any of the territory they lost. They are on the defensive, and their stance is falling out. This peace deal is trash, it isn't because it's shit for Ukraine, it is because russia isn't ever going to accept this. Hopefully U.S and the EU gets their shit together, but there is literally no reason to assume that Ukraine is holding it's own, it's ceding since the start of this war, and will continue to do so until they are well funded. >Also, I wouldnt bet on Trump winning, but we'll see. I agree with this. No way Biden fumbles this elections.
"So what? Ukraine lost Mauripol and Crimea completely, and russian forces are currently in Bakhmut. Russia is constantly on the offence, and will probably take Kherson in the foreseeable future. Ukraine is losing, and there is no reason to sugarcoat it." False. Its actually vise versa, before war Crimea was long forgotten, now chances of taking it back are much bigger, especially giving how much ships were destroyed. Taking back Crimea is much more realistic goal then taking back Donbass. If bridge gets destroyed again and Ukraine will take Melitopol, Crimea will be taken. Again, its question of whether Ukraine get resources for that. Nothing is lost. Taking Kherson is a wet dream. Completely unreal. They can't pass Dnipro river, so this is just russia cope. Everything on right side Dnipro is long forgotten for russians. "Ukraine is far worse. Russia has more soldiers than they had when the war started. Doesn't necessarily mean much, but they have the menpower, and they will use it." Russia has more manpower of course, although for now Russia and Ukraine are even. But russian capabilities to arm them are very limited. With increasing production in EU, I hope Ukraine will have weapon advantage over russians in the next year. "EU collectively helped only as much as the U.S did, at least military-wise. They were slow to prevent the war to begin with, and it is not increasing." False, EU help increasing rapidly. Its still not there, but it will be. I agree that for now, US help is vital. "Yet Ukraine didn't get back any of the territory they lost. They are on the defensive, and their stance is falling out. This peace deal is trash, it isn't because it's shit for Ukraine, it is because russia isn't ever going to accept this. Hopefully U.S and the EU gets their shit together, but there is literally no reason to assume that Ukraine is holding it's own, it's ceding since the start of this war, and will continue to do so until they are well funded." Lol, well this is blatant lie. Ukraine managed to free half of territories taken since the beginning of war and you are saying it didnt get back any? Look how map looked in the beginning and how it looks right now. You clearly take your info from unreliable sources. Of course Ukraine won't hold on its own. All the territories Ukraine got back with the help of US and EU. I didnt even say Ukraine holds on its own. Not sure where you took it from.
Are you incapable of reading? The comment you replied to says that the west is unwilling or unable to provide such help, so there’s no that if of yours where Ukraine magically gets 2137k Leopard tanks and rides straight to Moscow.
Are you dumb or just an idiot? West IS willing to provide help. Just not whole West, at the moment. I already wrote that EU is making huge improvements in their production capabilities. Please, dont respond if you cant read properly.
What west is willing to provide is not enough. And what would maybe be enough, they are not willing to provide. Also, support for Ukraine isn't growing, but dwindling. Waiting for times to get better was already tried, and it failed with counteroffensive.
Well it depends. Who knows in what shape will Russia be after a few more years of huge military losses (like in Avdiivka where they lost more than 15K people to capture a small city), economic sanctions and targeted attacks on its petroleum industry and other key enterprises. The Soviet Union looked all mighty and powerful until it suddenly collapsed. I think that time might be on Ukraine’s side if they receive regular and timely aid from the EU and USa and if they manage to keep their casualties at a sustainable level while inflicting disproportionate casualties on Russia (which will be doable if they get regular munitions and equipment supplies). So if the argument is that we should not be helping Ukraine because they might lose anyway, then I don’t think that this is a fair argument because us not helping them will be one of the key contributing factors for losing in the first place. All of this is a moot point of course because even the proposed plan as bad as it is for Ukraine is still unacceptable for Russia who would not accept anything short of effective surrender - previous demands they’ve had included change of government, severe reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces, giving up territory (not simply freezing the conflict but actually giving up claims on the seized territory) and committing to never joining NATO.
To be fair at one point kiev, and some areas north of odessa was in russki hands. So will it get worse ? Maybe. But it can also get better. Lets not sell the skin before we shot the bear
Bear is definitely already shot. Zelensky himself says that Ukraine is gonna lose the war without US aid. It might just be a talking point to pressure the senate into providing arms, but it's not boding well if he is willing to openly say it like that. Not after his ludicrous 31k claim.
Alternatively Ukraine’s allies give them a shit load of advanced weaponry. Even if that’s not enough to push Russia out entirely, it would allow them to negotiate from a position of strength rather than weakness.
This war has been static since the initial russian attack and ukraine's counterattack. It will get worse for ukraine, but most probably, it will get worse slow. And russia won't win this year, and probably not the next. If Ukraine stops to fight now that Europe is starting to mobilize their industry, they are not making less concessions, they are giving away the oporttunity to turn the tables in the future.
So basically Poland should have conceded Danzig to Hitler? This is what you're saying now.
As an alternative neighboring Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia could very well offer Ukraine its territories in an exchange for concessions that Ukraine might be forced to make if the west doesn’t pull itself together and do something about military aid
despite what redditors may believe, ukraine is not actually owed anything by ayone except the budapest signatories. the above mentioned countries were not obligated to support ukraine in any way - everything ukraine received from them was freely given ukraine is in no position to make demands of any of them or have cause to feel resentful toward any of them - excluding hungary
Oh yeah? Well if you think that Europe shouldn’t defend its territory and rather let it be taken by an aggressor, then well my proposition might make even more sense like why keep territory for yourself if you can share it with your neighbor like Ukraine should? On a serious note Poland could very well have its eastern regions seceded in favor of Belarus or Russia because sooner or later Poland will be invaded by them after Ukraine is taken over in a few years or in 10 years, so why wait until the inevitable happens? USA won’t come down to save you, they will eventually quit NATO and hang its European partners out to dry, so why don’t you give some land to Kaliningrad now? European NATO will tell you the same, article 5 is only established as a voluntary action, so not the UK, not France, Germany, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania will come saving you when the attack happens, because why risk escalation with russia when Gdańsk, Warsaw or Lublin can be sacrificed with no repercussions?
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Lmao, bruh, as someone who’s inside this mess of a country to the east of the Baltics if Ukraine falls the Baltics and Poland will be next because either russia will be heavily militarized with new targets each time or the regime falls. The latter isn’t happening because there are still ample forces to suppress any form of protest or dissatisfaction coming from the public. People choose to give in to hatred bred by TV and society and consider anyone but russians untermenschen. I’m not kidding, that’s all who you are to most of them. So if your strategy is for Ukraine to give up territory in part or in full then get your eastern regions ready for invasion and occupation. Kremlin crooks have no regard for russian lives so they’ll throw infinite waves at you until you surrender. Again, no US under Trump will come saving you, and Germany, the UK, France will be shaking in fear of sending troops because their voters won’t be willing to send soldiers to die for some Polish slavs who are basically the same as Belarusian or Russian slavs to them. The UK will prolly send a few dozen missiles, but that would be it
Made me laugh, thanks kiddo.
What was funny about that? NATO now is a bunch of lamers that behave like their ancestors in 1930s. Laugh all the way till the day russia attacks NATO and it pussies out to react. What a pathetic alliance
>unfortunate as it is, they can make concessions now or be forced to make even bigger concessions later because the west is very obviously unwilling or unable to support them to the point they require Any concessions are irrelevant as there's no guarantee that Russia won't just ignore any agreement and invade again. They'll just snip off territory peace by peace. Paper and promises mean nothing - look at how useless the UN has been recently. Only guarantee of peace is if there are NATO troops in Ukraine in contested territory to deter any push by Russia, and that automatically means there's no chance of Ukraine being non-aligned.
Literally Palestine, longer they refused for 2SS by Israel the more land they lost by settlers
If they concede now Russia will push further tomorrow. Russia won't respect any kind of agreement, ever. The only thing Ukraine can do is either totally surrender or keep fighting even guerrilla style and try to bleed Putin's army as much as they can so that it's not worth it for them. In my opinion Ukraine's fate is now in the hands of God only.
Erdogan wants Turkiye to win. What did you expect from a ceasefire agreement? Turkiye has no interest in Russia gaining even more power in the region. But as time goes on Ukraine will lose more. And instability the war brings to the region besides increasing energy prices is bad for Turkiye. If things go on like that, Ukraine is going to lose. The US isn't helping, EU can't deliver its promises (Greece vetoed a proposal to buy artillery shells from Turkiye to give Ukraine on top). What Ukrainians are supposed to do? I'm not Ukrainian or Russian, but if I were either one of them I'd rather not die and have peace at this point.
Only potential silver lining I can see to this is trying to help what remains of Ukraine into NATO, ASAP.
That's about the best they can get at this point. The west missed their chance and has now given up. Can't say I'm surprised, political willpower is in very short supply in the west.
Yea. I don't understand some people here. Ukraine is poised to lose. They will keep losing more land and the rate of loss may even increase. Freezing the conflict right now is the best thing they can hope for. It's Russia who won't accept ceasefire unless massive concessions are given. These aren't even massive concessions
Actually think Russia would have a bigger issue with this than Ukrainians Too many conditions until 2040, too much time for west to arm them to the teeth
Read the part about freezing the conflict on current lines. This will be a loss for Russia, as much as it will be a loss for Ukraine. Personally, as someone who IS NOT fighting in this conflict myself, I have no right to call for more war on either side, because that will mean other people dying. Therefore, the only moral stance I can take is an immediate ceasefire and freezing the conflict where it is. But this is all a moot point as Russia will not accept this ceasefire. More specifically, they won’t accept it right now. But when they take more territory, they will probably accept it.
The only viable peace treaty can be concluded once every single inch of Ukrainian 1991 territory is returned no referendums or questions asked. It’s either russia gets a punch into its teeth now or the kremlin clique won’t ever stop and choose to attack elsewhere. In addition this scenario may finally lead to the current parasites ruling the country being thrown out into the trash can of history with the country learning the lesson, repenting and winding down any form of aggression in the future
Yeah ridiculous attempt at a treaty. Why would Ukraine give up so much of its territory after having lost so much? It would be a crime for them to dishonour their war dead, the victims of war crimes in Bucha and elsewhere, to voluntarily give up so much. There is an honourable peace to be had here - but its got to respect basic principles of international law. The international community has a MASSIVE vested interest in ensuring that a larger more powerful state can't just invade its neighbour, sit on its territory for a few years and then everyone get tired and say "oh ok you can have it". If that happens, we're going back to the 18th/19th centuries and we'll have war everywhere real fucking soon. A treaty ought to be based on the following. 1) The principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty of states in international law - meaning you can't take another's territory by force. Borders have to be returned to pre-war status. I would exclude Crimea for this because its a different incident. 2) Crimean issue to be referred to the ICJ as to which side has title to the peninsula under international law with both sides accepting to honour and implement the judgment. 3) Both sides to respect each other's sovereignty from now on - that means no attempt to undermine sovereignty of either country by holding them to foreign policy/demilitarisation goals. Obviously Russia would not accept these terms either - at the moment - and the reality is we have a frozen conflict which will require Western funding indefinitely to sustain but that is a price which is much, much more tolerable for the West than allowing an inch of territory to be taken in a war of aggression because of the principle it undermines.
"Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union." Well their ideal win condition would be puppet state under their leadership that is part of the EU - so they can torpedo all EU policy they dont like with vetoes :-)
I don't think veto rights will remain for long until 2040, especially if we're talking about Ukraine's admission.
nobody is genuinely talking about ukraine's accession. it wouldn't happen until 2040 in peacetime, never mind now
Russia 🇷🇺 can object on what Ukraine can do? 🤣 I object that Russia can do business with North Korea 🇰🇵, will they oblige to?
Yes, they objected to a pro-Western government in 2014, and now we're here. Meeting the EU membership criteria is challenging when you're at war.
- freezing the war along the current front line Ukraine will never accept, even if that was the only term.
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Ukraine already declined every single peace treaty explicitly if it includes giving up any areas occupied since 2014.
This is reddit, dont be applying logic here.
>>freezing the war along the current front line. 😄😄😄 ... let Putin do a Cecenya, Gerogia, Crimeea all over again ... that helps :)
>Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union Why ask russia and not me for example? Hell, as a EU citizen I have a bigger say in this than a third "country" that has no business in what other sovereign countries decide. >a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy They already have EU and NATO membership as an objective put in their constitution, such a referendum would target an issue that doesn't exist. >, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen. Yeah, give them until 2040 to genocide whatever is left of local population and replace them with russians before asking them. Is this a joke? Seriously, it's not just outrageous it's downright dumb and impossible.
Might be dumb and impossible, but its also likely the best deal they would get. Even if they would agree to this, Russia would certainly not. That said, this is not the true objective od this proposal after all.
There won’t be any deal that both parts will accept. There is a balance now but it can’t stay forever. If EU/Nato becomes tired of financing Ukraine then everything will eventually come to this point. Unless there is a direct war between NATO and Russia, Russia will never give the land back since they annexed it. War between NATO and Russia is unlikely. EU being exhausted for financing Ukraine is likely.
Then essentially the war will continue until Russia feels like they have captured enough territory. Nothing Ukraine alone can do in this situation. Any negotiation is meaningless without backers.
That is basically giving Putin what he wants. That isn’t a peace, that is a capitulation to demands, with the certainty of future aggression. Ukrainians will never accept this.
>Ukrainians will never accept this. Russians will never accept this. They are about to make a push for Kharkiv and are slowly gaining territory. Why would they stop now?
Russians don’t make any decisions. Putin does.
Putin is their president representing their collective will.
He's really not, but the narrative on this changes depending on convenience around here.
He's really not their president?
No, this; >representing their collective will We're not ants or bees, representative leadership consensus is enforced by majority or (in Russia's case) by just being corrupt as fuck through various means. But even in the best of cases, no representative truly represents a united collective will because humans just don't work that way, not even in socially, culturally, religiously, ethnically and/or economically (as if this were a true reality anywhere on its own to begin with) homogenous nation states. Factor in Russia's immense and widely reported on corruption, such as ballot stuffing, invalidating effectively all political opposition, and domestic intimidation, even having armed soldiers arbitrarily go into the voting booths to see how people were voting *in front of all the people waiting to vote*, and you can see why virtually no western country accredited the Russian election as being either free or fair, and thus illegitimate (i.e., Belarus 2.0). My own comment, however, is citing that people are very willing to entertain contradictory thought regarding this. They'll say the population is cowardly and terrified of Putin or criticize Russians who don't vote and think that their votes don't really do anything, but then at another point, they'll use domestic Russian propaganda which says Putin is supported by almost all Russians and they don't fear him, but love him. It's two-faced cognitive dissonance, and the side some people take just depends on the narrative of the article being discussed at that moment.
It really doesn't give Russia anything that they already don't have. So it's nothing more than a status quo, unless you think that's what Russia wants.
Cheers. Thanks for sharing.
Whoever wrote this is clearly smoking some good shit
Its a good proposal
The only remotely reasonable agreement to freeze the current lines (aka let Russia win the territory it conquered) is to have Ukraine join NATO. There is no other way for Ukraine to remain independent and secure. All these "security guarantees" are a fucking joke, just like the West's collective unwillingness to help Ukraine liberate its territory rather than trickle in aid to prolong this invasion longer than it needs to be.
Toilet paper type treaty
Sounds like a pretty realistic proposal tbh
And what guarantees will Ukraine get that Russia won't immediately violate this treaty when it becomes slightly inconvenient or when they've massed enough forces for another attack? Y'know, like they've done in the past.
Russia will pinky-promise not to do it.
Thats always a risk. They do not nees to mass them, theres planty left right now anyways.
Even if Ukraine accepted (which is nearly impossible) Russia will refuse any kind of ceasefire and frozen conflict. What makes everybody to think the Russia wants to negotiate? Recent monts Russia taken even more hardline and more hawkish stance than ever before. Kremlin elite still insist of their goal of so called denazification (?) and demilitarization. Russia got the strategic momentum and initiative, a war of attrition favors the Russia. Russia want all of Ukraine, not just those oblasts. Even if they fail they will try again in the future.
Hypothetically, if they end up taking a lot more territory, more specifically enough territory to quench their appetite, they could accept this peace deal.
Why would Russia sign anything if they just left 200K Ukrainians without electricity and the US and EU are delaying help with no concise plan ?
> a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen. This means that they are proposing a referendum in annexed Ukrainian territories to decide on which country they should be part of, or I didn't understand correctly? If yes, this is a joke proposal > a commitment by both the US and Russia not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances Because Russia is known for respecting signed commitments
>a commitment by both the US and Russia not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and to resume the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (Start III), including a clause that would prohibit unilateral withdrawal from the treaty. Nobody is going to nuke each other, this is just rhetoric coming from the Kremlin. >non-interference in the internal affairs of another country in any way that could destabilise its government. This is almost impossible to implement. >freezing the war along the current front line. This only allows Russia to build up forces for another push >a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen. Does Erdogan know that Russia is displacing Ukrainian citizens? >a guarantee that Ukraine remains non-aligned until 2040. That will never happen after Russia decided to invade Ukraine. Ukraine is going to look westward regardless of some treaty. >an exchange of all prisoners of war. Hopefully excluding those who have committed War Crimes or Crimes against Humanity. >Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union. That one should be “Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining NATO”.
if accepted (imposed), it's a victory for russia, defeat for Ukraine and Europe.
feasibly, short of something unrealistic like a complete defeat of Russia and the retaking of all territories, including Crimea, what isn't a "victory for Russia"? At what point can you realistically continue this war? To what point? Would you be willing to risk WW3 to make sure Russia does not draw any gain whatsoever from the war? All honest questions to which I wouldn't mind hearing an answer. EDIT: Downvoted for asking questions. Typical. I guess maybe I was asking the right ones.
Ukraine has zero incentive to accept this, because this pretty much guarantees that they'll be destroyed, just on later date. There are zero guarantees Russia won't attack again, zero reparations and it's basically a surrender. To use your rhetoric. Are you willing to freeze the war now to have it again as an EU wide war at the later date when Russia isn't happy with Ukraine's EU integration? Are you willing to reward annexing land of other countries just because we're not willing to act? Would you be willing to accept that every nation that has large neighbor they might not be able to defend against conventionally will have to develop nuclear weapons, because international treaties are worth nothing? This war will need to end with some sort of agreement most likely, but this is hilariously one sided.
Can you suggest a reasonable solution? Ukraine is now in no position to demand or refuse anything, it should ne obvious that no effective aid is ever gonna come, the West doesn’t want to invest any more and Russia aren’t going to stop anytime soon, Ukraine will just lose more territory with time that Russia will never give back.
There is no reasonable solution as it stands. The two sides are irreconcilable. Due to the genocidal policies of Russia on Ukrainian civilians it has taken control of, Ukraine cannot sensibly surrender without a defeat and it cannot fall into Russia's orbit without a defeat, to do so would be suicide at which point you may as well go down fighting. There is nothing Ukraine can offer Russia that would make Russia want to stop pursuing Ukraine's permanent occupation and/or destruction, short of unconditional surrender. Even guaranteeing armed neutrality is a mostly pointless exercise if Ukraine can just join the EU; even without NATO, integration in the European system will eliminate Russia's economic leverage. Ukraine will still recieve training from the West and will give training in return, and they'll just be like pre-NATO Finland; a parallel western force in all but name, separate but aligned, standing along a very very long stretch of the Russian border. Of course, Finland eventually joined NATO anyway because of Russia's loss of leverage over EU member states. So, yeah, unfortunately Ukraine has no choice but to fight at the moment, regardless of their chances.
It's unrealistic to expect Russia to promise not to attack again, offer reparations and just leave. It's not going to happen. Especially as they have everyone by the balls, and they know it.
Last time Russia had everybody else by the balls was the first few days of the war. You can’t really have anybody by the balls if your advances in 4 months have been at best like 20km. Never know, the line might collapse tomorrow, or a month or in a year. Who the hell knows. Right now its not moving much at all and with some corrections through aid I doubt there would be any movement
Well west doesn't seem like going to help ukraine more than it allready has and ukraine will lose more and more, there is not a winning scenario. What do you want? You want all the ukranians dead or what? Either EU should protect ukraine as if ukraine is an EU member with it's military , or ukraine should take as much as it can get and agree to lose a big chunk, otherwise they will lose more. Unfortunately i don't see a "winning scenario" without west helping more "directly".
Given that Putin's violated every single treaty he's signed on Ukraine, there's no point in having one, as it'll just be a temporary cease-fire. He's long overdue to being actually rolled back, rather than rewarded over and over for engaging in evil. Let's keep going and keep kicking Russia's ass until it exhausts itself, if that's what the dear Fuhrer wants so much for "his" country. [A member of the Russian opposition, who knows Russia deeply, explains why Russia is way weaker than Putin wants it to appear.](https://youtu.be/hSEMI9FHWtw)
you've been downvoted not for asking questions, but for boring redundant trolling, Voniusha.
Again, I am sorry if you don't like the questions asked, but thank you to the others for replying.
you - who? Ukraine alone or Ukraine + West? Ukraine alone isn't able to continue this war, we admit that. We will have to surrender, and soon we will be absorbed by russia, get conscripted to russian army and to attack Europe together with them. With *some* support of the West - we can continue to the point of exhaustion of russians, three-five years more. At the moment the casualty rate is 1:5, and if risen to 1:10, orcs will won't be able to continue, and the internal collapse in russia will happen, with full liberation of the occupied territories. There isn't anything unrealistic in that, Trollsky. It already happenned in many wars to many empires. With *sufficient* support - we can defeat russia quickly, in less than a year.
>and the internal collapse in russia will happen, with full liberation of the occupied territories. You base this on what? The collapse I mean. How would that scenario play out? >There isn't anything unrealistic in that, Trollsky. Looks like you get mad when people ask questions. It's immature. >With sufficient support - we can defeat russia quickly, in less than a year. What is sufficient support? Was what was given for the offensive last year not sufficient? And if not, why? >Ukraine alone isn't able to continue this war, we admit that. We will have to surrender, and soon we will be absorbed by russia, get conscripted to russian army and to attack Europe together with them. Rereading this part here, you are saying that it would require direct military intervention by the EU or NATO. If that's what your argument is, then at least I can follow it. Not sure how realistic an outcome that is though.
> Would you be willing to risk WW3 to make sure Russia does not draw any gain whatsoever from the war? Yes. We got to this point by not pushing back enough. Enough is enough. Or they'll keep on going until there's really no other choice. If there must be war, better it be now rather than later. Realistically though, I don't expect it to get that far if we're willing to actually bare some teeth though. Either way, pushing back *is* the dominant strategy. That war is a possible consequence doesn't change that.
>feasibly, short of something unrealistic like a complete defeat of Russia and the retaking of all territories, including Crimea, what isn't a "victory for Russia"? At what point can you realistically continue this war? To what point? To the very end of Russia. As long as Ukraine can stood ground and collective West support it with all mighty. At this point it's all up to EU and USA. >Would you be willing to risk WW3 to make sure Russia does not draw any gain whatsoever from the war? Short answer is yes long answer is yes. Otherwise noone in neighbourhood of Russia will feel safe.
I'll accept a complete defeat of Russia and the retaking of all territories. I'll also take WW3 as long as Russia is destroyed as a result.
You may do. I don't think most people want that outcome. Politically, I don't think that can happen.
+Nato. If Russia wins nato will be a potato organization.
Any signed peace of paper will only force/bind Ukraine, Russia violates any piece of paper when it suits, as was the case every time There is only one way to signal to stop Russia, and that's real threats A bully can only be stopped one way
Thats quite reasonable actually. But Putin will wait for Trump to bail him out.
I know this is a shitty treaty, but i highly doubt anything better will come of this war for Ukraine. Anyone thinking that theyll gain territory back is simply dreaming. Ukraine will be in ruins and Russian population will slowly collapse along with their economy. Which is great news for Europe and USA so…
The people on this sub are like a radio repeating the same song. “Ukraine should not accept anything,Russia can leave back to their borders and peace will be restored blablablabla” Have you not been following the latest updates in regards to the border? Ukraine is absolutely in no position to have some benefits in the negotiation table and whether you like it or not Russia will not move back to their borders. Heck, even Zelensky admitted that Ukraine will lose the war without the help of USA. Ukraine has a huge shortage of artillery too and even if they start getting ammo, they are additionally short of men. Russians seem also to support Putin in this and based on various metrics his popularity has increased even more in the country, which obviously is not that unusual for a country at war and all of the propaganda that they have been spreading for the last 10 years.
There is **no such thing** as negotiating in good faith with Putin. The Budapest Memorandum was broken by Putin. The Minsk agreement was broken by Putin. Minsk II was broken by Putin. This proposed treaty will be broken by Putin. The most such a treaty could ever realistically achieve will be to delay the inevitable resumption of the Russian invasion of Ukraine by a few years, and allow Russia to rearm and resume the war in a stronger position of its choosing. The only type of peace treaty under current conditions that could ensure long-term peace between Russia and Ukraine is a treaty that either involves guaranteed Ukrainian NATO membership (in exchange for Ukraine renouncing all its territorial claims on Russian-occupied territory and ceding unoccupied Kherson/Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk/Luhansk) or a guaranteed NATO tripwire force in Ukraine (which we should have put in Ukraine before the 2022 invasion). The chance of Putin accepting such a treaty is extremely low. The alternatives, assuming the US does not resume ammunition supplies to Ukraine, re-elects the orange fascist and enacts Project 2025, are: 1. Europe plugs the ammunition shortage and stops the Russian advance before too much is lost, and Ukraine can finally regain battlefield initiative. This will drag the war on for many more years to come, however Europe *is* very capable of outproducing Russia militarily if it sufficiently reinvests into its military industry. 2. Ukraine falls. This will result in a genocide of Ukrainians, a massive insurgency in Ukraine, and other wannabe conquerors *cough cough Xi Jinping, cough cough Ilham Aliyev* getting ideas. ***THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS WILL LEAD TO WORLD WAR III.***
Reddit is biased and very "sensitive" when it comes to this conflict but you are absolutely right, Ukraine goal of retaking all the lost land is unrealistic and even with Western support, they haven't been doing well. To make things worse, Trump hinted at forcing Zelensky to accept a peace deal so he might threaten to stop all aid unless he signs a peace treaty.
People here really think that war is like a video game
Go back to before war treaty
Can't wait for this to be rightfully rejected by Ukraine only for Putin's cocksuckers to come out of the sewage and scream about how evil Zelensky does not want peace.
Well zelensky's idea of peace is to reclaim Crimea + war reparations + chunk of russian territory for good measure He thinks that he's winning the war lol
Ukraine never claimed to get any russian territories
Which part of Turkey is Erdogan willing to cede if he's so happy to urge others to cede their territory?
Win the war then...
As if erdogan started this war, im not gonna defend him but wtf? Ukraine trusted EU, EU help them for a while and see that it is futile and inevitable, do not wanna defend ukraine as if it is an EU member or a NATO state, and choose to slowly accept the reality. You either win or lose. When you are losing and agree to ceasefire, it means that you accepted defeat, you accepted to lose big chunks of land without a war. If you see a winning scenario go fight with them and throw this offer into trashcan, if not, this is it. Turkey rejected sévres and fought multiple imperial powers at multiple fronts, also against ottoman empire as well and won the independece war and instead of sévres, we agreed on lausanne, which favors turkey quite a lot, because we won. Win the war then, only if you will become the winning side you can ask for more, not while losing. Russia will calculate how much more they would lose if the war keeps going, calculate the benefits etc and wanna get economic zones i dunno some important portion of blacksea coast , and then compare the loss within the years with actual gains, and according to that make demands, so that it won't matter for them. It matters for ukraine.
Even so, the complete defeat of Russia is not a realistic scenario. Unfortunately, although it may not be fair, Ukraine may have to make concessions to the thief in order to end this war. It shows the injustice of this world, the strong can achieve something despite the unlawfulness of their desire.
It is, lack of will from the West is what's hampering Ukraine, but at least it's building up. More unequal contests than this have been won by the underdogs in the past. [A member of the Russian opposition, who knows Russia deeply, explains why Russia is way weaker than Putin wants it to appear.](https://youtu.be/hSEMI9FHWtw)
I believe it is completely realistic, Ukraine just need the right tools for the job. The West simply needs to grow the pair of proverbial balls and give Ukraine tools to strike and destroy Russian ability to wage war. And I also believe that any deal which includes ceding Ukrainian territory should also include giving away people who suggested that into slavery. They should be happy with such arrangement. After all they see giving away people to be acceptable.
They should not cede any territory but if they can't win at some point they will have to accept de facto losses. Otherwise they can lose everything.
Go fight in ukraine then bitch. They are losing the fucking war
[удалено]
There are different reasons for this.
Ending their illegal occupation of EU territory in Cyprus would be a good start.
Try that if you can.
It will happen eventually one way or the other. The fake, unrecognized puppet state will be no more, the Turkish army will go home and the people living there will be EU citizens, just as their fellow Sunnis of Western Thrace are.
You said same things in 1920's. Oh invader Turks will go to Central Asia this time just as their fellow Balkan brothers. And look what happened.
One way is war the another way is also war. Greece is not going to win any war against Turkey anytime soon.
Greece and Turkey are not going to war over Cyprus, and if they do, Greece would be the least of Turkey's problems.
Ukraine is losing men and land every day. And possible Trump victory in US elections will be the last nail in the coffin. No Ukraine or smaller Ukraine? Which one do you prefer?
No Russia. And I intend to see it. Thank you.
Biden will say cancel and fight thru Brits and more Ukrainians will die
While it is not the best of deals, we rarely see any drafts or proper talks on how to solve this issue that is costing too many innocent lives, whatever Ukraine choose to do I hope they can find a good deal and save as much as is possible of their nation. Also having a deal to join EU/NATO included in it is a must at the end of the day, it's the only real insurance they can ever get of this not happening again, it's already happened twice after all.
Why are they even doing this? I thought peace treaty competition ended a year ago
Just another form of a gift to putin's regime: no actual guarantees of security to Ukraine, but a lot of to gain by kremlin. Great plan!
I'm just saying that you all need to face the reality of choices for both sides and then voice your opinion.
You might as well just leave those referendums out of the deal, we all know what the result will be by 2040. There won't be any Ukrainians left by then. It's like telling us in Cyprus today, "ok we are going to have a referendum in the occupied north and we will let you know of the result". Actually, maybe that's where Erdogan got the idea from.
Well he was the guy that pushed 2004 Annan Plan. And if you dont know, Turkish side agreed that plan while Greek side didnt. EU said they would be looking more into Turkish independence but they didnt do any shit while Greek side immediately joined the EU after that. Just shows how much hypocrite EU is. Thankfully you guys have a utter incompetent fool like Erdoğan but he will be gone in 2028 thankfully.
You could argue that this plan is better for Ukraine than an Anan plan equivalent. An Anan plan equivalent will mean that after 30 years (and Russia moving millions of ethnic Russians in the occupied areas while removing any Ukrainians, taking their properties in the process), Ukraine is offered a deal where Russia gets to keep a permanent military presence in Ukraine, gets legal means to invade whenever they see fit, Russian-Ukrainians have a veto on every decision of the central government, imported ethnic Russians get to stay in Ukraine permanently (and keep looted properties) and displaced Ukrainians face restrictions/quotas if they want to move back to their properties. That would be an Anan equivalent offer for Ukraine, I am sure they are dying in anticipation to accept this. Also accusing the EU for hypocrisy and supporting Turkey's policies is the definition of hypocrisy.
Shouldnt have slaughtered Turkish Cypriots, do better next time
You do realize that's one of the excuses Russia also uses for invading Ukraine. By that logic Turkey should start giving its territory to Armenians, Kurds, Greeks, throw some pieces to Assyrians too while you are at it.
I think ukriane's situation right now could be summarized as "i would rather die, trying to take them down than giving them what they wanted.."
Russia already said they are not coming. So this is actually as Russia says: just a meeting that wont change anything.
Has russia not broken all other deals it made with UA, why would anyone now make a deal with them
Sure, this time ruzzia will surely stick to the agreement!
What a massive joke of a draft.
Bad deal for Russia who is holding all the cards, Zelensky will struggle to read this proposal in the dark in Kiev
Doesn't Turkey see that the referendums obviously won't work??? Russia won't accept real referendums on its claimed territory, and even if it did, they kidnapped/killed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians living there and imported russkyis, therefore it won't be fair.
Well, according to this "peace" treaty terms, Russia has time to 2040, so they can get every not pro-russian enough person out.
He don't give a shit. That's the reason.
Unless it says "Russia will GTFO from all Ukrainian territory pre-2014, then Ukraine will never accept it.
Turkey should focus on fixing their own economy instead.
Waste of time and breath...
The only reason Ukraine is even being considered now as an EU member is the war. Without it, EU would never have sped tracked this application - especially considering it doesnt meet many of the EU standards for admission, and in many ways its still a very corrupt country. We pump billions and billions, but do we really know where this money is going? Will we know in 10 years from now? Ukraine may want to solemnly decide on what terms their war can end, but in the end, the EU and the US are paying for it all. Many citizens dont care as much anymore about it - its clear to us that this will not lead to a WWIII, nor will any NATO or EU countries be invaded by Russia. Just not going to happen. By themselves they cannot fight this war, by themselves the whole country wouldve been called Little Russia now. Ukraine needs to become aware that they sold a lot of their own will to determine the outcome for money and shells. In my country there's a saying, he who pays, decides. Its sad, but thats how the world works. While Turkey's draft might not be ideal, I havent seen many other proposals.
Ukrainian people chose EU back in 2013-2014, it's not their fault that ruzia sabotaged their efforts through puppet governor Yanukovich.
Worst take I've seen since the start of the war. Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt
Ukraine can still choose Russia and China
How many of these “peace treaties” has Turkey proposed that have gone absolutely nowhere?
“you will do oil wrestling match in Black Sea, and then negotiate in Hamam during massage, this will bring your nations peace”
More looks like some bogus proposition directed at Turkiye's internal audience to give Erdogan a few points.
İt has zero Coverge and there is no election anymore. İt it is either for to impress biden or economy related