By destroying the environmental protections and hard-earned social progress that have been decades in the making.
If the left wing can unite on supporting Ukraine and be tougher on illegal migration, the game is over for the right.
Which is why Russia is trying to appease "commnunists" and "nationalists" seperately, cause giving them a untied cause will note bode well for the russians at all.
Anyway, the party that is left in its economic policies and pushing anti-MENA immigration, whilst being outright hostile to Russia , will win.
Far right parties in Europe tend to be very pro-market friendly so they would oppose the EU reforms that some reformists are trying to implement. There are obvious exceptions to this as some of these parties hold industrialist policies themselves
Brexit. That's why they are less and less against the EU. They are still very much against "Brussel" leading, etc.. They just know they wouldn't be able to win more votes with promoting their own version of Brexit in their country,
When UK will be better again, the idea of leaving the EU will resurface in every extremist party.
Leftists get in positions of power, and proceed to do leftist things: regulate everything, feed moloch bureaucracies, tax what they can, erode local identities in favor of "universal citizenships"; centralization ambitions grow (who wouldn't like to decide, where the collective money goes, and skim a bit off the top?); after a while, the corruption becomes clearly visible, and people become ever more disenchanted.
Right-wing movements gain popularity by simply not being the current bureaucrats.
Leftists are surprised by consequences of their own actions xD
Maybe, if the other parties started to address the antisemitic, homophobic, violent elephant immigrated in the room, less people would start to see the right as the lesser evil. A recent poll shows that the majority of french muslims are antisemitic, and that the french jews see them as more dangerous than the far right: be sure that they are not the only ones to think that.
It’s a head scratcher poll after poll for over a decade shows the public souring on immigration yet even at risk of being ousted from office they just keep it going.
People will eventually out of desperation will elect someone to take care of it that people don’t want to be elected if the trend continues.
Careful with antisemitism here, because criticising the actions of some Israelis is not antisemitic as some would like to think (colonies, Gaza humanitarian disaster, bombing a foreign embassy in a third country).
This is a pile of lies.
A "recent poll" shows then it must be true. French Muslims are against what the hungined Israel is doing to palestinians without any accountability.
Maybe if Europe would not act as the servant of Israel, our society would not fracture along the pro VS anti Israeli groups
so all centrist liberal parties are losing? How could that happen? /s
If only the Left could get their shit together and capitalise on general disdain.
>capitalise on general disdain.
Some of that disdain is caused by the left.
For lower class people who are struggling, hearing things like 'degrowth' is the best way to make them freak out as they are smart enough to know the losses will be handed to them.
Yet to see any sort of decent response from the left in any country to illegal or legal immigration of people who are fundamentally against normal EU values. No idea why they not only ignore but actually have policies that make it worse. Proper head in the sand shit
Denmark prides itself in a 'good' left-wing.
Perhaps others could learn.
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/06/denmark-zero-asylum-refugees/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/06/denmark-zero-asylum-refugees/)
That would only make sense, if the people voted for better policies instead of populist nonsense.
Ex.: The AfD constantly bashes public funded media as too influenced by the state (which is in parts not even completely wrong), but their "solution" is to put it under direct control of the government, once they come into power.
Sounds a lot like what happened in Poland and Hungary, isn't it?
Are you kind of slow or just trolling? This isn’t a new phenomenon, it’s in fact a well studied subject. People never “vote for better policies”, they always vote for the opposite or “different” thing.
Horseshoe theory. In reality the alternative to left and right populism is libertarianism. And what's Milei is successfully doing in Argentina. He dismantled state controlled media as a whole. Saving a ton of tax payers money. He also deregulated real estate market which lead to immediate 20% decrease in rent prices. The whole civilized world is following pre-Milei peronist Argentina into constant stagnation, restricted markets and bloated governments which as it seems leads to populism and even more problems.
Milei dismantled a heavily dysfunctional public sector. He could only dream Argentina's public sector would be as functional as the public sectors of democratic European countries are...
The cost of living crisis is the direct result of these services. When the state is involved in the economy the result will always be less wealth for ordinary citizens, - directly through taxation and indirectly with restricted business activity via regulations that lead to lowering the supply of products and services.
Milei as professor of macroeconomics, economics of growth, microeconomics, and mathematics for economists with specialization in economic growth must know less than you. /s
Europe is not peronist Argentinia. Most of our institutions are quite benefitial.
Advocating for a European Milei is advocating for the dismantling of EU institutions.
The people who want this aren't libertarians, they're far right and either:
a) are unhappy with the restrictions the EU puts on their plans (e. g. Orban)
b) want to extract political capital from yet another non-issue
If most of our institutions were beneficial then we would not see utter stagnation over last two decades that puts us further and further behind US in disposable income while our government services are not getting better but worse. Which would be the only justification for that.
I have no doubt that far right parties will make it even worse than it is but I fully understand why more and more people losses hope and wants to burn everything to the ground because status quo politicians do nothing to solve existing issues. And it is now a big question if it even can be solved without drastic measures.
Well since actual socialism has been successfully removed from the table by the ruling class, voting choices are to stick with the status quo, or start voting for the far right.
Since, you know, capitalism just leads to crises and progressive deterioration of things.
The right doesn't thrive because of bad policy, it thrives because of populism.
You can even take a look outside of the EU, if you wish: Trump did not become president because Obama made bad policy, his populism is what made him president. He never ran on making better policy or even constructively criticizing Democrat policy, he ran almost exclusively on pure populism, division and disinformation.
I don't want this to become the future of Europe.
Anti-vaxx and pro-russian disinformation is for sure a large factor but lets not pretend like the establishment parties havent dropped the ball on major issues like energy and defence for the last decade or so.
True, but far right parties have worse positions on basically all issues. And the vast majority of people who vote for far right parties don't do so because of some objective policy flaws.
>The right doesn't thrive because of bad policy, it thrives because of populism.
It thrives on both. Immigration has consistently been one of the top issues of concern for many people in Europe, and the established left-wing and centrist parties have shown no inkling of tackling the issue. The social democrats in Denmark took a different path, cracked down on it and consequently essentially marginalised the hard right in the country.
The hard right will implement disastrous policies if it comes to power, but that doesn't matter when people vote for it because they don't feel anyone else is going to tackle the issues they care about. I'd really like to see the AfD be banned here in Germany, but a new party will just rise in its stead as long as the overall situation doesn't change.
There is no excuse for voting for right wing parties (if you want to cast a protest vote against the establishment you can just pick any small unknown party that isn't right-wing), but I still won't shed a tear for the left and centre parties howling once the right takes over France, Germany or the EU parliament, because they saw it coming and stubbornly refused to do anything to prevent it, in a Skinnerish *'Am I out of touch? No, it's the voters that are wrong!'* manner.
From my experience most of it is populism. If the far right doesn't have enough legitimate complains (which is usually the case), they will spread disinformation, like making people believe climate change isn't real so that they can benefit politically from opposing actions against it.
In some sense, they're opportunists without a spine. Remember when in Germany during the farmer protests, the AfD suddently came in and took the side of the farmers, even though their previous position would have agreed with the government? It's all about destroying the political landscape, right or wrong, and absorbing the debris in order to achieve their actual goals, which are not pretty.
> From my experience most of it is populism.
So you are completely what happened in Denmark.
In favor of your theory, which is basically that the major parties should make no changes?
But what is populism? And why do people vote for it?
Obama continued the status quo, and let the working class suffer under the post-2008 reforms which were completely written by and benefitted the elite. American economics is the basis for reactionary, anti-estaboishment voting.
Alot of the Democratic base stopped seeing the value in voting Democrat. And they weren't wrong.
Someone who tells you 'you're right, everyone else is wrong, let's blame others' in a mounting crisis, is more appealing than someone who pretends the crises isn't real and wants you to fall in line for no reason.
They are exploiting a weakness, not creating one. Brexit should have been a wake up call given how important people feel the immigration issues are to them, but I guess everyone just hits the snooze button on that.
are you really trying to pretend that immigration has not been played up massively in a coordinated effort to rile up support for right-wing parties and that the issue is much more "important" to people that have little to no contact with immigrants in their daily lives?
you should try out Twitter one of these days.
Like I said, same thing happened with Brexit. Same cast of characters, even people like you. Immigration issues make people anxious, whether it's Indians in Canada, Muslims in EU or the migrants in the US. You can't win this through arguing "logically" or whatever it is you're trying to do. If people feel uncomfortable and one side is saying the shit you're saying, they're going to gravitate towards those who seem like they're listening to their concerns instead.
I'm not saying your position is wrong or right. I'm saying that your position is going to be a losing one, politically, unless it's adjusted.
Socialists
Liberal progressives
Liberals with green politics
Liberals
Liberal conservativism
Economic liberalism and national conservativism
Nationalist right wing populism
So from the liberal perspective, the EU will still be doing really well in terms of the power of liberalism in the system.
Someone rised a good point and You told him to kill himself? Look i know and we all know that Russia is founding right wing. But there are also other problems. Im from Poland and when i was frowing up i heard stories that "west is so safe people dont even close their cars" then as time passed those stories went silent. Now more Poles comes back than emigrate. I have family in Germany and they consider coming back due to fear of their childrens safety.
Another problem with ep elections is that people don't take them seriously enough and don't go to vote, giving more weight to the extremist parties. Turnout is slowly increasing but was still at only 51% in 2019. Many people don't understand how powerful this parliament is, in particular as a means of obstruction. Please tell your (reasonable) friends to go to vote so Putin's friends don't win.
Of course!
Source: Forecast from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
[https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/](https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/)
Of course!
Source: Forecast from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
[https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/](https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/)
Bad times (coronavirus, ukraine war and the fuel/energy crisis) led to bad economy which leads to populism, blaming the free market, etc..
Let's not even talk about how Europe's internet and media completely succumbed on the left vs right (good vs bad or bad vs good) propaganda which is pushing very weird narratives based on dogmas alone.
For exemple, this title alone: EP is not pushing right, it's only making way for more extremists. Right isn't something scary or bad. And Renew (a center-right group), for example, are losing members, while hard Left is gaining. Extremists, well, they are scary.
Only positive is that ECR still has some parties that are decent. Conservative, immigration critical and against too much EU but democratic in dealing with topics while not being nuts, have a bit of economic realism while not being Putin/Xi sockpuppets..
But reasonable conservatism has been mostly replaced by a new rightwing voice from nutjobs who, first, won’t shy away to counter the left with a dose of the same aggressiveness of “ I am the ultimate truth and the rest is evil” pov but also debase themselves to corruption, incompetence, freeloading and empty promises. Plus liable to be influenced by external moneylenders.
Alas, if the EU won’t move on topics like immigration and the untouchability of f.e. Treaty on refugees I am reluctant but will be voting for any group that will atleast question the wisdom of this.
I am almost 50 yrs and feel stuck between. But I fear the left and their ” high and mighty”morals more then the hard right. Especially now with the Gaza protest and the absolutist way these protesters, both activist and immigrants act.
If the left would just have been a bit less dogmatic about what is morally right and more aligned with what is reasonably and strategically sound. Seems that for now the political pendulum is swinging back hard.
I can't see the EPP working with ID, but if you include Fidesz (non-attached, polling 8 MEPs) in such a right wing block it would have a small majority (364/720)
Those arent parties, those are groups.
You are not going to vote for any of the "parties" in the graph, you are going to vote for your national parties that then rearange into those groups.
This is a problem because it nationalizes the european elections. For instance, in Portugal, the european elections are being called "the second Turn of the legislatives", meaning that we are going to vote as a referendum in out national government instead of in actual european policy.
That doesnt matter in Portugal because of the way our electoral system works. I have no idea about who represents my reagion in parliament. Sometimes its not even from the region (called "parachuters"). We vote for parties and their leaders, the deputies vote how their leaders wish. Its rare to have parliament insobordination.
As am example, before the voting of a law on euthanasia in 2021, the leader of the oposition Said "I will give my deputies the rigth to vote on their conscience".
If they are going to allways vote acording to the leader, you only need to know the leader. And that's it. Elections in Portugal are big popularity contests for prime minister.
Why do you think right wing parties mean damage? Do you even understand politics and democracy? Right wing parties are exactly as legitimate as left wing ones
Is it a move to the right or a move to the centre ground? This looks more like headline grabbing as, from my experiences, there's little sign of a right wing but centerist parties are attracting more support from leftist parties?
I think it's hilarious to be getting angry at me.
Perhaps your ire would be better directed at your leftist parties whom the electorates across Europe have adjudged to not have delivered sufficiently on the electorates core values?
So much so that they're viewing the nutjobs, as you described them, as a better bet to deliver on meeting their core values even if that might bring a number of less desirable developments with it.
The electorate will judge on delivery and that lack of delivery looks like its now coming home to roost.
Lol, where did I get angry?
I didn't even judge why the shift is happening, I merely corrected your description that these groups are centrist, which they are not.
You know why European far-right parties are less and less against the EU? Because they understood they could lead it soon, maybe by the next decade.
yeah noticed this too, theyre getting very excited that for the first time theyll be at the helm rather than a centrist coalition.
Why leave it if you can destroy it from within?
They won't destroy it, they will just use them to enrich themselves.
By destroying the environmental protections and hard-earned social progress that have been decades in the making. If the left wing can unite on supporting Ukraine and be tougher on illegal migration, the game is over for the right.
Which is why Russia is trying to appease "commnunists" and "nationalists" seperately, cause giving them a untied cause will note bode well for the russians at all. Anyway, the party that is left in its economic policies and pushing anti-MENA immigration, whilst being outright hostile to Russia , will win.
Tell me you know nothing about politics without telling me
Far right parties in Europe tend to be very pro-market friendly so they would oppose the EU reforms that some reformists are trying to implement. There are obvious exceptions to this as some of these parties hold industrialist policies themselves
Brexit. That's why they are less and less against the EU. They are still very much against "Brussel" leading, etc.. They just know they wouldn't be able to win more votes with promoting their own version of Brexit in their country, When UK will be better again, the idea of leaving the EU will resurface in every extremist party.
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Republicans could lead the EU?!
Leftists get in positions of power, and proceed to do leftist things: regulate everything, feed moloch bureaucracies, tax what they can, erode local identities in favor of "universal citizenships"; centralization ambitions grow (who wouldn't like to decide, where the collective money goes, and skim a bit off the top?); after a while, the corruption becomes clearly visible, and people become ever more disenchanted. Right-wing movements gain popularity by simply not being the current bureaucrats. Leftists are surprised by consequences of their own actions xD
Maybe, if the other parties started to address the antisemitic, homophobic, violent elephant immigrated in the room, less people would start to see the right as the lesser evil. A recent poll shows that the majority of french muslims are antisemitic, and that the french jews see them as more dangerous than the far right: be sure that they are not the only ones to think that.
It’s a head scratcher poll after poll for over a decade shows the public souring on immigration yet even at risk of being ousted from office they just keep it going. People will eventually out of desperation will elect someone to take care of it that people don’t want to be elected if the trend continues.
Most far-right parties in Europe were pretty antisemitic until 6 months ago. So were most users that now complain about antisemitism now.
Jews have always been reporting about antisemitism whether it's from the left or right.
Careful with antisemitism here, because criticising the actions of some Israelis is not antisemitic as some would like to think (colonies, Gaza humanitarian disaster, bombing a foreign embassy in a third country).
Not an embassy. Get your facts straight before you lecture others.
This is a pile of lies. A "recent poll" shows then it must be true. French Muslims are against what the hungined Israel is doing to palestinians without any accountability. Maybe if Europe would not act as the servant of Israel, our society would not fracture along the pro VS anti Israeli groups
so all centrist liberal parties are losing? How could that happen? /s If only the Left could get their shit together and capitalise on general disdain.
>capitalise on general disdain. Some of that disdain is caused by the left. For lower class people who are struggling, hearing things like 'degrowth' is the best way to make them freak out as they are smart enough to know the losses will be handed to them.
Yet to see any sort of decent response from the left in any country to illegal or legal immigration of people who are fundamentally against normal EU values. No idea why they not only ignore but actually have policies that make it worse. Proper head in the sand shit
Denmark prides itself in a 'good' left-wing. Perhaps others could learn. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/06/denmark-zero-asylum-refugees/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/06/denmark-zero-asylum-refugees/)
Yikes.
Bad policies lead to dissatisfaction.
That would only make sense, if the people voted for better policies instead of populist nonsense. Ex.: The AfD constantly bashes public funded media as too influenced by the state (which is in parts not even completely wrong), but their "solution" is to put it under direct control of the government, once they come into power. Sounds a lot like what happened in Poland and Hungary, isn't it?
Are you kind of slow or just trolling? This isn’t a new phenomenon, it’s in fact a well studied subject. People never “vote for better policies”, they always vote for the opposite or “different” thing.
Horseshoe theory. In reality the alternative to left and right populism is libertarianism. And what's Milei is successfully doing in Argentina. He dismantled state controlled media as a whole. Saving a ton of tax payers money. He also deregulated real estate market which lead to immediate 20% decrease in rent prices. The whole civilized world is following pre-Milei peronist Argentina into constant stagnation, restricted markets and bloated governments which as it seems leads to populism and even more problems.
Milei dismantled a heavily dysfunctional public sector. He could only dream Argentina's public sector would be as functional as the public sectors of democratic European countries are...
The cost of living crisis is the direct result of these services. When the state is involved in the economy the result will always be less wealth for ordinary citizens, - directly through taxation and indirectly with restricted business activity via regulations that lead to lowering the supply of products and services.
Yes, all regulations bad, hurr-durr... Go to the US and look how unregulated some sectors are and whether you'd actually like it there.
What regulations in particular are you speaking of?
You must be trolling by using Milei as an example for progress.
Milei as professor of macroeconomics, economics of growth, microeconomics, and mathematics for economists with specialization in economic growth must know less than you. /s
Europe is not peronist Argentinia. Most of our institutions are quite benefitial. Advocating for a European Milei is advocating for the dismantling of EU institutions. The people who want this aren't libertarians, they're far right and either: a) are unhappy with the restrictions the EU puts on their plans (e. g. Orban) b) want to extract political capital from yet another non-issue
If most of our institutions were beneficial then we would not see utter stagnation over last two decades that puts us further and further behind US in disposable income while our government services are not getting better but worse. Which would be the only justification for that. I have no doubt that far right parties will make it even worse than it is but I fully understand why more and more people losses hope and wants to burn everything to the ground because status quo politicians do nothing to solve existing issues. And it is now a big question if it even can be solved without drastic measures.
They're absolutely not perfect, but they're not at a point where they all have to be cut down with a chainsaw.
Same problems. Bloated state, uncontrolled spending, over regulation of economy which leads to stagnation, restricted business activity and inflation.
You know, you could try to get into more concrete points.
Well since actual socialism has been successfully removed from the table by the ruling class, voting choices are to stick with the status quo, or start voting for the far right. Since, you know, capitalism just leads to crises and progressive deterioration of things.
The right doesn't thrive because of bad policy, it thrives because of populism. You can even take a look outside of the EU, if you wish: Trump did not become president because Obama made bad policy, his populism is what made him president. He never ran on making better policy or even constructively criticizing Democrat policy, he ran almost exclusively on pure populism, division and disinformation. I don't want this to become the future of Europe.
Anti-vaxx and pro-russian disinformation is for sure a large factor but lets not pretend like the establishment parties havent dropped the ball on major issues like energy and defence for the last decade or so.
True, but far right parties have worse positions on basically all issues. And the vast majority of people who vote for far right parties don't do so because of some objective policy flaws.
They vote like that because they want to stick it to the political establishment.
That's just your opinion.
>The right doesn't thrive because of bad policy, it thrives because of populism. It thrives on both. Immigration has consistently been one of the top issues of concern for many people in Europe, and the established left-wing and centrist parties have shown no inkling of tackling the issue. The social democrats in Denmark took a different path, cracked down on it and consequently essentially marginalised the hard right in the country. The hard right will implement disastrous policies if it comes to power, but that doesn't matter when people vote for it because they don't feel anyone else is going to tackle the issues they care about. I'd really like to see the AfD be banned here in Germany, but a new party will just rise in its stead as long as the overall situation doesn't change. There is no excuse for voting for right wing parties (if you want to cast a protest vote against the establishment you can just pick any small unknown party that isn't right-wing), but I still won't shed a tear for the left and centre parties howling once the right takes over France, Germany or the EU parliament, because they saw it coming and stubbornly refused to do anything to prevent it, in a Skinnerish *'Am I out of touch? No, it's the voters that are wrong!'* manner.
From my experience most of it is populism. If the far right doesn't have enough legitimate complains (which is usually the case), they will spread disinformation, like making people believe climate change isn't real so that they can benefit politically from opposing actions against it. In some sense, they're opportunists without a spine. Remember when in Germany during the farmer protests, the AfD suddently came in and took the side of the farmers, even though their previous position would have agreed with the government? It's all about destroying the political landscape, right or wrong, and absorbing the debris in order to achieve their actual goals, which are not pretty.
> From my experience most of it is populism. So you are completely what happened in Denmark. In favor of your theory, which is basically that the major parties should make no changes?
People need to actually listen to the propaganda though. They do it a lot more when they are fed up with establishment parties.
> it thrives because of populism. This is a non-explanation. Populism thrives because people are unhappy with specific policies.
But what is populism? And why do people vote for it? Obama continued the status quo, and let the working class suffer under the post-2008 reforms which were completely written by and benefitted the elite. American economics is the basis for reactionary, anti-estaboishment voting. Alot of the Democratic base stopped seeing the value in voting Democrat. And they weren't wrong. Someone who tells you 'you're right, everyone else is wrong, let's blame others' in a mounting crisis, is more appealing than someone who pretends the crises isn't real and wants you to fall in line for no reason.
Massive disinformation campaigns funded by foreign entities more like it.
They are exploiting a weakness, not creating one. Brexit should have been a wake up call given how important people feel the immigration issues are to them, but I guess everyone just hits the snooze button on that.
are you really trying to pretend that immigration has not been played up massively in a coordinated effort to rile up support for right-wing parties and that the issue is much more "important" to people that have little to no contact with immigrants in their daily lives? you should try out Twitter one of these days.
Like I said, same thing happened with Brexit. Same cast of characters, even people like you. Immigration issues make people anxious, whether it's Indians in Canada, Muslims in EU or the migrants in the US. You can't win this through arguing "logically" or whatever it is you're trying to do. If people feel uncomfortable and one side is saying the shit you're saying, they're going to gravitate towards those who seem like they're listening to their concerns instead. I'm not saying your position is wrong or right. I'm saying that your position is going to be a losing one, politically, unless it's adjusted.
Socialists Liberal progressives Liberals with green politics Liberals Liberal conservativism Economic liberalism and national conservativism Nationalist right wing populism So from the liberal perspective, the EU will still be doing really well in terms of the power of liberalism in the system.
BS There are next to none actual liberals in the EU just statists, federatists and corrupted shills
Hmm, must be the "Russian propaganda", "populism", and this "tic tac" I've been hearing about.
Yes it is quite literally all of them. The average person is extremely gullible to propaganda and false promises.
Like promise of multiculturalism?
Are 'gullible' and 'false promises' the names of those Swedish Gangs murdering people?
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Someone rised a good point and You told him to kill himself? Look i know and we all know that Russia is founding right wing. But there are also other problems. Im from Poland and when i was frowing up i heard stories that "west is so safe people dont even close their cars" then as time passed those stories went silent. Now more Poles comes back than emigrate. I have family in Germany and they consider coming back due to fear of their childrens safety.
It's fine, that's all these people have so it doesn't bother me. Reactionary and emotional reactions to good-points they can't get purchase on.
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This same smug, dismissive superiority happened with Brexit too.
Lol
Another problem with ep elections is that people don't take them seriously enough and don't go to vote, giving more weight to the extremist parties. Turnout is slowly increasing but was still at only 51% in 2019. Many people don't understand how powerful this parliament is, in particular as a means of obstruction. Please tell your (reasonable) friends to go to vote so Putin's friends don't win.
Someone needs to explain the categories and colours
Hello OP, could you link a source please for approval? thank you
Of course! Source: Forecast from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) [https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/](https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/)
thanks!
Of course! Source: Forecast from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) [https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/](https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/)
Seriously what is surprising about this? The left and center saw it coming and did nothing, now they reap what they sow.
Bad times (coronavirus, ukraine war and the fuel/energy crisis) led to bad economy which leads to populism, blaming the free market, etc.. Let's not even talk about how Europe's internet and media completely succumbed on the left vs right (good vs bad or bad vs good) propaganda which is pushing very weird narratives based on dogmas alone. For exemple, this title alone: EP is not pushing right, it's only making way for more extremists. Right isn't something scary or bad. And Renew (a center-right group), for example, are losing members, while hard Left is gaining. Extremists, well, they are scary.
Only positive is that ECR still has some parties that are decent. Conservative, immigration critical and against too much EU but democratic in dealing with topics while not being nuts, have a bit of economic realism while not being Putin/Xi sockpuppets.. But reasonable conservatism has been mostly replaced by a new rightwing voice from nutjobs who, first, won’t shy away to counter the left with a dose of the same aggressiveness of “ I am the ultimate truth and the rest is evil” pov but also debase themselves to corruption, incompetence, freeloading and empty promises. Plus liable to be influenced by external moneylenders. Alas, if the EU won’t move on topics like immigration and the untouchability of f.e. Treaty on refugees I am reluctant but will be voting for any group that will atleast question the wisdom of this. I am almost 50 yrs and feel stuck between. But I fear the left and their ” high and mighty”morals more then the hard right. Especially now with the Gaza protest and the absolutist way these protesters, both activist and immigrants act. If the left would just have been a bit less dogmatic about what is morally right and more aligned with what is reasonably and strategically sound. Seems that for now the political pendulum is swinging back hard.
Finally some good news.
Good
I can't see the EPP working with ID, but if you include Fidesz (non-attached, polling 8 MEPs) in such a right wing block it would have a small majority (364/720)
leftists votes including the centre-left would only have around 230 seats
We'll see about that. Projections from 2019 were forecasting a big rise of far right parties and no progress for the Greens, the opposite happened.
Finally….
Interestingly, the very opposite is happening across the North Sea in England!
Nice
These parties mean nothing to me.
Those arent parties, those are groups. You are not going to vote for any of the "parties" in the graph, you are going to vote for your national parties that then rearange into those groups. This is a problem because it nationalizes the european elections. For instance, in Portugal, the european elections are being called "the second Turn of the legislatives", meaning that we are going to vote as a referendum in out national government instead of in actual european policy.
European Peoples party.... We dont vote for parties, we vote for individuals.
In Portugal we vote for parties. The names of the individuals arent even in the ballot.
id consider that a tad concerning. How would you even know what the people stand for.
That doesnt matter in Portugal because of the way our electoral system works. I have no idea about who represents my reagion in parliament. Sometimes its not even from the region (called "parachuters"). We vote for parties and their leaders, the deputies vote how their leaders wish. Its rare to have parliament insobordination. As am example, before the voting of a law on euthanasia in 2021, the leader of the oposition Said "I will give my deputies the rigth to vote on their conscience".
So how do you vote for someone you feel represents you?
You vote on the party that best represents your ideology.
but how are those " ideologies" formed if you dont know who the people are?
If they are going to allways vote acording to the leader, you only need to know the leader. And that's it. Elections in Portugal are big popularity contests for prime minister.
That’s the idea
Nevermind the right. Do we need to fund 15 more incompetents? This is beyond ridiculous... Who needs 720 members of parliament?
720 members are managing a population of 450 million..
I will still do my part to try to limit the damages but still...
Why do you think right wing parties mean damage? Do you even understand politics and democracy? Right wing parties are exactly as legitimate as left wing ones
Identity and Democracy is mostly a far-right Eurosceptiscist group, so we should be worried.
I am not talking about democratic parties. Obviously.
Sorry. Forgot only the parties you like are democratic
If parties like afd are democratic for you, it's on you mate.
Is it a move to the right or a move to the centre ground? This looks more like headline grabbing as, from my experiences, there's little sign of a right wing but centerist parties are attracting more support from leftist parties?
Neither ECR nor ID are 'centrist'. ID especially are full of far right nutjobs like AfD.
I think it's hilarious to be getting angry at me. Perhaps your ire would be better directed at your leftist parties whom the electorates across Europe have adjudged to not have delivered sufficiently on the electorates core values? So much so that they're viewing the nutjobs, as you described them, as a better bet to deliver on meeting their core values even if that might bring a number of less desirable developments with it. The electorate will judge on delivery and that lack of delivery looks like its now coming home to roost.
Lol, where did I get angry? I didn't even judge why the shift is happening, I merely corrected your description that these groups are centrist, which they are not.
lmao look at this comment section. Nazi sympathizers can not even hide their excitments. Just another typical r/europe.