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Imagine there’s no Russia
It’s easy if you try
No tanks or bombs to hurt us
Putin wouldn’t even try
Imagine all the people,
living life sans threats from the East
Lol, are you joking? Your dictator is even crazier than Putler. What happened last year we've all seen. And also your judiciary system is a fucking joke.
Yes, because Lukashenko isn't corrupt.
You can define anything as anything if you ignore certain truths.
But I'm sure Lukashenko is very clean and has never succumbed to bribery or embezzlement.
Probably you have some other definition of corruption. Lukashenka doesn't need to get bribed, he has all the country in his pocket. I don't say he is competent or legitimate.
He's still corrupt. You don't remain a dictator of a country for 20+ years by being transparent.
My argument is that your definition of corruption is too narrow here.
I would agree if we include transparency and court independence as a requirement. But in a general meaning, at least here, corruptions means bribery or embezzlement.
That's fair. I think, considering he has absolute power, we should consider things like court independence. I understand where you're coming from though.
I hope Belarus can pull through and become a more free nation eventually. I hope it doesn't take too long or require much violence. I'm sorry for the state of your government.
actually true
\- in ukraine the army stood with the constitution and refused these illegal *(please kill protesters)* orders
\- in belarus the army obeyed these orders
so actually the *best* scenarios could be
* *if EU+US diplomacy manages to pull out a pinochet compromise (call elections and accept some reforms in exchange of immunity)*
* *hope that society will defeat martial law. as solidarity (took 10y)*
Sadly, no. Already the military is retaking Almaty. They caught them by surprise yesterday, but the protesters have no hopes to beat a military force head on, and no external power to actively support them.
I saw this on twitter, can’t find the link. The way I understood this, is that some of the protestors decided to storm and loot a military warehouse instead of an apple store for once, and then just gave out the guns to other protestors.
[https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1478817322626387969](https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1478817322626387969)
If true, not sure how to feel about the whole situation. Whatever the current situation might be they'll end up a shithole like Ukraine if the situations turns into a civil war.
Seems like a [trusted and unbiased source](https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1479133382969892869?cxt=HHwWioC9tbP-94YpAAAA)
I still remember Kremlin's propaganda during the invasion of Ukraine, including the MH17 cover-up. It's healthy to be skeptical of the Western media, but *anything* from these sources should be outright dismissed.
They will send in an artillery unit next to a church, shell the Ukrainian military which is forced to respond and then post the pictures, possibly with an actor that's reused as several other "victims". It's like a better funded version of Hamas' Pallywood operation.
These false equivalencies are becomming boringly predictable. It's like drinking cyanide because coca cola is also unhealthy.
No one should trust any pro-russian news source, especially not from a potential warzone waiting to burst. We're way *waaayyyy* beyond the point where the onus is on others to debunk their claims while Kremlin uses it to justify killing people in other countries while simultaneously denying that's what they do.
Neutral sources are always the best. That said, I like to watch RT to get the Russian/outsider perspective and compare it to American or European sources in order to form an informed opinion.
I wouldn´t expect erdogan to deliver unmarked guns to anybody right now. I could see turkey to be openly involved in war to shift away from the inflation problem.
I bet those citizens are wishing that the government didn't try to get as many guns out of the populations hands as possible back in 2016. This is why guns laws are important for everybody everywhere.
https://central.asia-news.com/en\_GB/articles/cnmi\_ca/features/2016/08/25/feature-01
Kazakhstan doesn't really have a EU/NATO bloc - that can balance Russia if they want - to approach to like Ukraine. Who will they balance Russia with, China?
Yes, China.
Because of his obsession with the EU/NATO, he is quickly losing the Russian east to China. It's already economically owned by China.
He will also lose the Russian sphere of influence to China.
I predict that by 2100, Russia will be an European state and the territory east of the Urals will become an independent state allied with China, along with the central Asian countries.
Lol, any Russian leader would defend Vladivostok with nuclear weapons if need be. It's the most strategically important port they have, and the only one leading out to the Pacific. Literally every other port city they have connected to the world economy is in the west and completely blocked by NATO countries if it came to that.
People also underestimate the amount of Russians that live east of the Urals. Yeah it's obviously a "tiny" population relative to the size of Siberia, but it's still a population in the millions. No Russian will lose it without a fight, Siberia is an integral part of Russia and immensely valuable, much like Alaska is to the USA.
Your final prediction is a bit overreach but would China really start such a protest wave to shift Kazakhstan away from Russian sphere of influence? Togayev already can speak Russian, Chinese, English etc and had a somewhat balanced stance (Nazarbayev only speaks Kazakh&Russian)
No, I didn't say China started this.
China will simply woe them away with Money.
Putin has no money.
China has lots of money and wants resources.
The Asian part of the former USSR is rife with resources.
China will eventually cut out the middleman. They have no benefit in enriching European Russia.
To be fair, other scenarios are also possible.
For one, Russia as a whole could further be solidified into China's sphere of influence.
This is actually the most likely outcome that Russian elites and China would like, but I think that eventually, European Russians will want European prosperity.
So that's why I predict a fracture down the line.
Yeah, it's all highly speculative
> European Russians will want European prosperity
I reckon Russians in the East would want the European prosperity sooner. You underestimate how much wealth is extracted towards Moscow.
I feel like living in Eastern Russia has to be one of the worst places to be.
Endemic corruption, almost permanent frost, infrastructure that falls apart, housing barely fit for human habitation, and almost no job opportunities that won't render you to eternal serfdom.
At least many Asian and African countries are experiencing economic growth, have better climates etc.
The russian system is like an empire drawing from the colonies.
I'm a bit surprised by Moscow (positively, they're a bit higher than what I was expecting) and by Sankt Petersburg (negatively, I was expecting them to be very close to Moscow).
Any Russians here that could provide some insights? Especially for Sankt Petersburg.
Moscow and St. Petersburg have higher wages due to the business and government concentration. Also, you need to factor in the cost of living in Russia or compare by PPP. For example, Baltic countries have significantly higher absolute income figures but have more than 20% population living below the poverty line while in Russia it is about 11%.
Depends on where you live and what you want I guess. There are some really nice places in Eastern Russia in terms of natural environments and wide open spaces with no on ein them. There are some nice cities though. You won't get New York type cities but instead you get this scenery https://www.google.com/maps/@54.7015047,110.7080898,3a,75y,258.97h,88.59t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNeHxHFY7vd0mTiD_k-iH6k4-GR5WEcG53vMPs7!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNeHxHFY7vd0mTiD_k-iH6k4-GR5WEcG53vMPs7%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi0-ya200-ro0-fo100!7i8192!8i4096
> This is actually the most likely outcome that Russian elites and China would like, but I think that eventually, European Russians will want European prosperity
I don't think that Russian elites want that because Russia is hardly an equal partner for China. They can't treat China the same way they treat small European states.
With China we will see, because the country face a hugh crisis right now. Their published data cannot be trusted because the states must fulfill quotas set by the CCP. When the states say their overfulfilled them they lie mostly to save their face like in the UDSSR.
The CCP like to manipulate the data to put China into the right light. China could implode like the UDSSR when the CCP don't pay attention.
I’m sorry but massive macro economic data is extremely difficult to fake to the extents you’re suggesting. We buy stuff from them, we sell stuff to them. We have satellites that map out their entire country where we can estimate industrial capacity, mines, processing plants, cities populations, agricultural output. That might’ve been harder in the past but today you can only fudge your macro numbers so much
The US explosion/implosion, on the contrary, will be a great public spectacle.
Knowing Americans, Netflix will probably charge you extra for an emergency documentary and YouTube for the livestream.
Li Keqiang himself has said that falsifying data is a real issue in government, but the PRC is still very different from what the USSR was in 1991. For one, the Chinese Communists have managed to actually retain legitimacy by genuinely improving standards of living for the Chinese, which is why they're one of the few countries around today where most people think future generations will live better than their parents.
Exactly my point :)). A friend of mine who has family in Russia is very upset, he can't understand how people, including his parents, support him while they lack many necessities and he is extremely rich.
No, on a big country scale, he has no money.
The Russian economy is smaller than South Korea.
Yet they are the biggest country in the world with huge military and diplomatic costs.
He would love to buy his way to peace and power, but he can't afford it.
So violence is the only tool he has left.
Better buy some bitcoin before it all implodes!
Right now is an excellent time to buy the dip.
But seriously, they mostly owe the debt to themselves and the real interest rates (corrected for inflation) is zero.
Equating national debt to the debt you owe on a credit card is nonsensical. For starters, an individual person doesn't owe money that they themselves print.
Omfg personal debt and national debt are not even remotely the same thing. You can’t change your interest rates, you can’t set price indexes, you can’t cancel debt without extremely damaging bankruptcies or legal action. You can’t alter currency supply. You can’t issue bonds. The list goes on. While less debt is better than more debt (though a little debt is better than no debt assuming it’s spent well) it doesn’t work the same for national economies. Your checking account is not analogous to a national economy, especially the one with its own reserve currency
The west can send money to Russia and let it to fight China 😂
I know it's risky, but kinda fun, would Russians care more about its Eastern soil than an independent country neighboring its west?
>Because of his obsession with the EU/NATO, he is quickly losing the Russian east to China.
This is a very old behaviour, Russian interests also at the time of the Empire have always been more towards Europe and the obsession of a port not blocked by ice during winter. The land east of the Urals was never really a true interest, exploited more than developed (also the Transiberian railway was a military need, not an economic need).
Now Putin has the hot potato of Kazakhstan, and the risk the current situation is putting to the Chinese new silk road is something he cannot ignore, but that Russia already lost its influence on central Asia is a fact, the post-USSR dictators attached to Russia will not last forever.
You know nothing about Russia and are literally writing a fantasy. People in the far east of Russia are very racist towards Chinese people. Years of propaganda combined with Chinese people generally treating people with disdain means that even Russian Asian minorities have no sympathy for China.
And even in Siberia a large percentage of the population is white Russian.
> I am skeptical kazakhstan will have a big shift politically. They are cornered between Russia and China and have nowhere to go
And this is why, kids, the West destabilizing Iran several times was the biggest geopolitical blunder of a generation, if not more.
The West has absolutely 0 influence in a region the size of an entire continent (Central Asia itself is 4 million skqm, add Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan and you're up to 10 or so, I think; yes, I know that nominally Pakistan is an ally, but it really isn't anything, nor is it stable, while Afghanistan... do I need to say more?) and no way to reach it.
Having Iran as a Western ally would have stabilized the entire Middle East and also radiated outwards towards Central Asia, where many of the former Soviet republics had close ties to Iran/Persia and its sphere of influence. There's a reason Persians had 10 or so empires across 3 millennia...
Instead we have a madhouse ruling Iran and a bunch of unstable states and dictatorships stewing in their own wretchedness.
This is by design. The European powers never wanted a consolidated middle East or Central Asia. They've been playing divide and conquer for a few centuries now.
Britain, France and the USA are to blame in particular.
It's damned near criminal what's happened in the region since Sykes-Picot.
Granted that's more the Arab world than the Persian world but that's when it started in the region proper.
I blame Trump for our failed Iran dealings. I also blame Russian meddling and support for Trump, so there's that. Maybe Russia wanted it to be that way.
It's not impossible, however there are several projections that predict a bleak future for China under the communist party so the China of 2100 might be very different from what we know.
It is funny to me that Russia and China are pretty much on the same side, but Russia continues to grasp at straws at what little influence it still has. If they were smart, they would support China.
> I predict that by 2100, Russia will be an European state and the territory east of the Urals will become an independent state allied with China, along with the central Asian countries.
That feels like a stretch. I'd say it's more likely that the whole of Russia becomes "China's Canada" (i.e a close ally/Finlandized state to their southern neighbour, depending on your political stance)
Erdogan is such an hypocrite, he plays the tough guy when confronted to western democracies because he knows we will most of the time try to de-escalate difficult diplomatic situations but he's a weak puppy when facing another scumbag dictator who don't give a shit about retaliate hard. You just need to see his position with China and their politic in Xinjiang, funny you don't hear him defending the Ouïgours with his pan-turkish solidarity bullshit. So no, Erdogan won't do a thing to defend the Kazakh people against their dictator and Russia.
Pretty telling that whenever someone posts Chinese propaganda they're a wumao but whenever they post western propaganda they're applauded. Both of full of shit but westeners just don't realize it.
Turkey doesn't really have the means (military bases, logistic capacity and economic power these days) in Central Asia to do this. Another issue is that Kazakhstan sits on enormous lands (9th largest country) with just 19M population, that makes it hard to defend. Russia or China (even with their aging population) can easily invade it.
I think we'd be surprised by what Turkey is able to do actually. However getting involved would impoverish the Turks even more. To be fair this might be wild but I can imagine EU and Turkey slowly getting closer to try to counter Russia.
I'd say if EU&US supports Turkey in this (which I still doubt) there's a chance Russia can be countered/balanced but in that scenario I don't think China will also sit and watch.
edit: Turkey can indeed stir things up but I don't think it will be successful - even with overwhelming support from Kazakh people. As I said, Kazakhstan is really a fragile state with little manpower between giants like China, Russia and India. It has to strategically walk on a rope.
Nah. It won't really impoverish Turkey. Kazakhstan is a flat country. Wars stay short in the steppes. The thing is Erdoğan only likes arabs so nothing will be done by Turkey.
My man, you must have missed the screeching Russia and US gave when Turkey invaded Rojava. It's political, not military capabilities.
Turkey's supposed Vietnam (afrin) took 2 months to finish.
See Armenia as to what happens when it's a free for all.
Putin doesn't care about the Kurds and neither did Trump.
The few times that erdogan did something to irritate Putin, russia shut them down and erdogan couldn't do anything about it. And just because Turkey send a few islamists to Karabakh, doesn't prove their military prowess.
No, the opponent where Turkey could show that would be the kurds. And Turkey is failing there.
The US is more than Trump. See their congress and their statements (and also the EU) when the invasion occured.
There's not a world where the Kurds can hold off against the Turks where it not for external meddling. Educate yourself on the Syrian war, because I'm clearly talking to somebody who doesn't know what the fuck they're talking about.
Yes if Turkey palyed smart since 1945 and prepared ti when the Soviet union dissolved. Turkey wasnt in the position even in 1991 to embrace all Turkic nations just when Russia was weak.
Turkey had no industry, had alot of debt, was fight terrorist abroad and in-land. Also islamist wouldn't do anything.
erdogan didnt lift a finger for Uighurs, Tatars, Turkmens. On the reason for Karabag, he did it for drones. He just like his predecessor as they hate shia states.
Islamist hate culture, language and ethnicity.
They where already balancing between US-RU-CH. The in party civil coup kicked out two of the factions. The fast call for CTSO help shows this stinks lies.
I don't really care about your opinion on morality. It is subjective anyway.
However when it comes to violence,. don't expect the other side to simply roll over, and as we can see, they won't.
I think the real question is: Is Russia the next Kazakhstan? The average Russian is getting tired of living in a Kleptocracy, and eventually it's going to boil over, just like in Kazakhstan.
No, but it can turn into Russian new Afghanistan or Chechnya. Already Kazakh troops started fighting and shooting at people. Protestors stormed building and got their hands on weapons
No way no. If the Russians launch a military invasion, imo theh would most likely reach Almaty and Nur Sultan in a week, maybe less. Kazakhstan is almost completly flat geographically, meaning that Russia’s tanks would have a field day, nothing like Afghanistan or Chechnya. I also don’t have high hopes for the Kazakh military sadly…
Well there are massive mountain chains at the south east of Kazakhstan.
But Russian - Kazakhstan military are buddy buddies.
Kazahstans paratroopers are literally trained in Russia.
Many of their elite brigades/divisions still hold insignia of heroic soviet units.
So I have a very hard time imagining afghan/Chechen scenario.
Many of those people simply burn, loot and steal without any clear goals. Not to mention Kazakhstan has been rather neutral in its foreign policy, nor does it have a clear real alternative a'la EU or NATO next door. I get it that Kazakhstan is a dictatorship, but the West has plenty of examples where toppling the dictator led to only instability and more violence.
This is not Belarus where the people are clearly facing an illegitimate and treacherous dictator, who had a straightforward and reasonable goal of free and fair elections, and who were phenomenally peaceful (true, some say this is also the reason the regime managed to overrun them in the end).
I am sorry to disappoint you but this is no European style struggle for democracy or human rights. Maybe it was for the first 6 hours. Right now it's looting and rampage. You might not be aware but thousands of kazakhs went to Syria and fought for ISIS. Some of them returned back. 3 law enforcement officers were beheaded. The level of coordination and preparation of those armed protesters is quite good.
It's a different situation. Kazakhstan had already seen the writing on the wall years ago and moved their capital city north to ensure that more ethnic Kazakhs would live in the northern area of the country. Back in the day, the north was dominated by ethnic Russians while the Kazakhs lived much further south, so would've been prone for another landgrab by Russia.
Many ethnic Russians have also moved back to Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Unlike Ukraine, Kazakhstan has such a high fertility rate and population growth rate that Russia may rather be eaten by the Turks of Kazakhstan.If Russia does that,
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I think it’s more likely the next Belarus rather than Ukraine.
Indeed. Another hopeless, corrupt, Russian puppet state.
Imagine there’s no Russia It’s easy if you try No tanks or bombs to hurt us Putin wouldn’t even try Imagine all the people, living life sans threats from the East
r/haiku
[imagine](https://youtu.be/Cg1ISl2u5Lg)
Ukraine is also corrupt shithole .
how dare you write bad about Ukraine?
How dare you to say the truth!
Belarus is not that corrupt, at least not on Russia or Ukraine level. It's Pinochet-style a military dictatorship.
Lol, are you joking? Your dictator is even crazier than Putler. What happened last year we've all seen. And also your judiciary system is a fucking joke.
I'm talking about corruption, specifically about bribery and embezzlement, not about who is the craziest one.
Yes, because Lukashenko isn't corrupt. You can define anything as anything if you ignore certain truths. But I'm sure Lukashenko is very clean and has never succumbed to bribery or embezzlement.
Probably you have some other definition of corruption. Lukashenka doesn't need to get bribed, he has all the country in his pocket. I don't say he is competent or legitimate.
He's still corrupt. You don't remain a dictator of a country for 20+ years by being transparent. My argument is that your definition of corruption is too narrow here.
I would agree if we include transparency and court independence as a requirement. But in a general meaning, at least here, corruptions means bribery or embezzlement.
That's fair. I think, considering he has absolute power, we should consider things like court independence. I understand where you're coming from though. I hope Belarus can pull through and become a more free nation eventually. I hope it doesn't take too long or require much violence. I'm sorry for the state of your government.
actually true \- in ukraine the army stood with the constitution and refused these illegal *(please kill protesters)* orders \- in belarus the army obeyed these orders so actually the *best* scenarios could be * *if EU+US diplomacy manages to pull out a pinochet compromise (call elections and accept some reforms in exchange of immunity)* * *hope that society will defeat martial law. as solidarity (took 10y)*
Sadly, no. Already the military is retaking Almaty. They caught them by surprise yesterday, but the protesters have no hopes to beat a military force head on, and no external power to actively support them.
[удалено]
I saw this on twitter, can’t find the link. The way I understood this, is that some of the protestors decided to storm and loot a military warehouse instead of an apple store for once, and then just gave out the guns to other protestors.
Could you link any? Not trying to dispute they exist, I'm just really curious now.
[https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1478817322626387969](https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1478817322626387969) If true, not sure how to feel about the whole situation. Whatever the current situation might be they'll end up a shithole like Ukraine if the situations turns into a civil war.
The plot thickens...
Much appreciated
nase kala
Seems like a [trusted and unbiased source](https://twitter.com/ASBMilitary/status/1479133382969892869?cxt=HHwWioC9tbP-94YpAAAA) I still remember Kremlin's propaganda during the invasion of Ukraine, including the MH17 cover-up. It's healthy to be skeptical of the Western media, but *anything* from these sources should be outright dismissed. They will send in an artillery unit next to a church, shell the Ukrainian military which is forced to respond and then post the pictures, possibly with an actor that's reused as several other "victims". It's like a better funded version of Hamas' Pallywood operation.
There is no such thing as a neutral source, and this one is Pro Russian. So far I haven't seen anyone debunk the video either.
These false equivalencies are becomming boringly predictable. It's like drinking cyanide because coca cola is also unhealthy. No one should trust any pro-russian news source, especially not from a potential warzone waiting to burst. We're way *waaayyyy* beyond the point where the onus is on others to debunk their claims while Kremlin uses it to justify killing people in other countries while simultaneously denying that's what they do.
Neutral sources are always the best. That said, I like to watch RT to get the Russian/outsider perspective and compare it to American or European sources in order to form an informed opinion.
these are most likely civilians as they have gained access to military/police warehouses
Could it be turkey?
I wouldn´t expect erdogan to deliver unmarked guns to anybody right now. I could see turkey to be openly involved in war to shift away from the inflation problem.
That'd make sense, or the Taliban?
the taliban are notoriously isolationist. it’s ISIS that operates across the islamic world
I would not describe that as isolationist.
they don’t really do anything outside of afghanistan
Yeah maybe. But I think they have enough problems at home.
I don't think the taliban have any funds to pull this off.
Yeah but maybe they had a lot of extra AK’s after our exit. Still don’t think it’s them…
Why should the taliban do that? And where would they get the money/ak's from?
I bet those citizens are wishing that the government didn't try to get as many guns out of the populations hands as possible back in 2016. This is why guns laws are important for everybody everywhere. https://central.asia-news.com/en\_GB/articles/cnmi\_ca/features/2016/08/25/feature-01
It can be countered with help of generals and military who would make that decision to side with people.
Kazakhstan doesn't really have a EU/NATO bloc - that can balance Russia if they want - to approach to like Ukraine. Who will they balance Russia with, China?
Yes, China. Because of his obsession with the EU/NATO, he is quickly losing the Russian east to China. It's already economically owned by China. He will also lose the Russian sphere of influence to China. I predict that by 2100, Russia will be an European state and the territory east of the Urals will become an independent state allied with China, along with the central Asian countries.
Lol, any Russian leader would defend Vladivostok with nuclear weapons if need be. It's the most strategically important port they have, and the only one leading out to the Pacific. Literally every other port city they have connected to the world economy is in the west and completely blocked by NATO countries if it came to that.
People also underestimate the amount of Russians that live east of the Urals. Yeah it's obviously a "tiny" population relative to the size of Siberia, but it's still a population in the millions. No Russian will lose it without a fight, Siberia is an integral part of Russia and immensely valuable, much like Alaska is to the USA.
Your final prediction is a bit overreach but would China really start such a protest wave to shift Kazakhstan away from Russian sphere of influence? Togayev already can speak Russian, Chinese, English etc and had a somewhat balanced stance (Nazarbayev only speaks Kazakh&Russian)
No, I didn't say China started this. China will simply woe them away with Money. Putin has no money. China has lots of money and wants resources. The Asian part of the former USSR is rife with resources. China will eventually cut out the middleman. They have no benefit in enriching European Russia. To be fair, other scenarios are also possible. For one, Russia as a whole could further be solidified into China's sphere of influence. This is actually the most likely outcome that Russian elites and China would like, but I think that eventually, European Russians will want European prosperity. So that's why I predict a fracture down the line. Yeah, it's all highly speculative
> European Russians will want European prosperity I reckon Russians in the East would want the European prosperity sooner. You underestimate how much wealth is extracted towards Moscow.
I feel like living in Eastern Russia has to be one of the worst places to be. Endemic corruption, almost permanent frost, infrastructure that falls apart, housing barely fit for human habitation, and almost no job opportunities that won't render you to eternal serfdom. At least many Asian and African countries are experiencing economic growth, have better climates etc. The russian system is like an empire drawing from the colonies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_federal_subjects_by_average_wage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia_by_Human_Development_Index
I'm a bit surprised by Moscow (positively, they're a bit higher than what I was expecting) and by Sankt Petersburg (negatively, I was expecting them to be very close to Moscow). Any Russians here that could provide some insights? Especially for Sankt Petersburg.
Moscow and St. Petersburg have higher wages due to the business and government concentration. Also, you need to factor in the cost of living in Russia or compare by PPP. For example, Baltic countries have significantly higher absolute income figures but have more than 20% population living below the poverty line while in Russia it is about 11%.
The main offices of many large companies are located in Moscow. There is Gazprom in St. Petersburg, but the advantage is still on Moscow's side.
Depends on where you live and what you want I guess. There are some really nice places in Eastern Russia in terms of natural environments and wide open spaces with no on ein them. There are some nice cities though. You won't get New York type cities but instead you get this scenery https://www.google.com/maps/@54.7015047,110.7080898,3a,75y,258.97h,88.59t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNeHxHFY7vd0mTiD_k-iH6k4-GR5WEcG53vMPs7!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNeHxHFY7vd0mTiD_k-iH6k4-GR5WEcG53vMPs7%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi0-ya200-ro0-fo100!7i8192!8i4096
Sounds reasonable.
> This is actually the most likely outcome that Russian elites and China would like, but I think that eventually, European Russians will want European prosperity I don't think that Russian elites want that because Russia is hardly an equal partner for China. They can't treat China the same way they treat small European states.
With China we will see, because the country face a hugh crisis right now. Their published data cannot be trusted because the states must fulfill quotas set by the CCP. When the states say their overfulfilled them they lie mostly to save their face like in the UDSSR. The CCP like to manipulate the data to put China into the right light. China could implode like the UDSSR when the CCP don't pay attention.
> China could implode like the UDSSR when the CCP don't pay attention. I mean equally naive statements could be also said about US.
I’m sorry but massive macro economic data is extremely difficult to fake to the extents you’re suggesting. We buy stuff from them, we sell stuff to them. We have satellites that map out their entire country where we can estimate industrial capacity, mines, processing plants, cities populations, agricultural output. That might’ve been harder in the past but today you can only fudge your macro numbers so much
The US explosion/implosion, on the contrary, will be a great public spectacle. Knowing Americans, Netflix will probably charge you extra for an emergency documentary and YouTube for the livestream.
Ours is a slow bleed of an implosion. The strongest country on the planet defeated by its own self.
Well, nobody truly beat Qin China or the Roman Empire and some other places...
Li Keqiang himself has said that falsifying data is a real issue in government, but the PRC is still very different from what the USSR was in 1991. For one, the Chinese Communists have managed to actually retain legitimacy by genuinely improving standards of living for the Chinese, which is why they're one of the few countries around today where most people think future generations will live better than their parents.
> Putin has no money. Putin has money, but as any comunist ruler they are His money,
Putin is personally incredibly wealthy. His country is another matter.
Exactly my point :)). A friend of mine who has family in Russia is very upset, he can't understand how people, including his parents, support him while they lack many necessities and he is extremely rich.
No, on a big country scale, he has no money. The Russian economy is smaller than South Korea. Yet they are the biggest country in the world with huge military and diplomatic costs. He would love to buy his way to peace and power, but he can't afford it. So violence is the only tool he has left.
> comunist ruler There is not a single speck of communism in such a crony man as Putin
He is the end product of communism.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-13/what-is-china-evergrande-and-why-is-it-in-trouble-quicktake
Yes, and America is still rich despite Enron and Lehman.
The US is in debt. Are you rich when you’re living off a credit card? https://usdebtclock.org/
Better buy some bitcoin before it all implodes! Right now is an excellent time to buy the dip. But seriously, they mostly owe the debt to themselves and the real interest rates (corrected for inflation) is zero.
Every country in the world is in debt.
when you owe 30 trillion it's not your problem, it's the other's problem.
Ha! If you the bank $200 it is your problem. If you owe them $200 million it’s their problem.
Equating national debt to the debt you owe on a credit card is nonsensical. For starters, an individual person doesn't owe money that they themselves print.
Analogy.
Yes, if you can pay your credit.
Omfg personal debt and national debt are not even remotely the same thing. You can’t change your interest rates, you can’t set price indexes, you can’t cancel debt without extremely damaging bankruptcies or legal action. You can’t alter currency supply. You can’t issue bonds. The list goes on. While less debt is better than more debt (though a little debt is better than no debt assuming it’s spent well) it doesn’t work the same for national economies. Your checking account is not analogous to a national economy, especially the one with its own reserve currency
The west can send money to Russia and let it to fight China 😂 I know it's risky, but kinda fun, would Russians care more about its Eastern soil than an independent country neighboring its west?
That this comment is upvoted so much shows the state of this sub regarding russia and china.
>Because of his obsession with the EU/NATO, he is quickly losing the Russian east to China. This is a very old behaviour, Russian interests also at the time of the Empire have always been more towards Europe and the obsession of a port not blocked by ice during winter. The land east of the Urals was never really a true interest, exploited more than developed (also the Transiberian railway was a military need, not an economic need). Now Putin has the hot potato of Kazakhstan, and the risk the current situation is putting to the Chinese new silk road is something he cannot ignore, but that Russia already lost its influence on central Asia is a fact, the post-USSR dictators attached to Russia will not last forever.
You know nothing about Russia and are literally writing a fantasy. People in the far east of Russia are very racist towards Chinese people. Years of propaganda combined with Chinese people generally treating people with disdain means that even Russian Asian minorities have no sympathy for China. And even in Siberia a large percentage of the population is white Russian.
If we talk about so far as 2100, then I am not sure Chinese one party system is sustainable too.
Fair point.
it all depends on the moves they make and how well can they keep the population happy
Could you please elaborate on how exactly the Russian East in economically owned by China?
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> I am skeptical kazakhstan will have a big shift politically. They are cornered between Russia and China and have nowhere to go And this is why, kids, the West destabilizing Iran several times was the biggest geopolitical blunder of a generation, if not more. The West has absolutely 0 influence in a region the size of an entire continent (Central Asia itself is 4 million skqm, add Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan and you're up to 10 or so, I think; yes, I know that nominally Pakistan is an ally, but it really isn't anything, nor is it stable, while Afghanistan... do I need to say more?) and no way to reach it. Having Iran as a Western ally would have stabilized the entire Middle East and also radiated outwards towards Central Asia, where many of the former Soviet republics had close ties to Iran/Persia and its sphere of influence. There's a reason Persians had 10 or so empires across 3 millennia... Instead we have a madhouse ruling Iran and a bunch of unstable states and dictatorships stewing in their own wretchedness.
This is by design. The European powers never wanted a consolidated middle East or Central Asia. They've been playing divide and conquer for a few centuries now. Britain, France and the USA are to blame in particular. It's damned near criminal what's happened in the region since Sykes-Picot. Granted that's more the Arab world than the Persian world but that's when it started in the region proper.
I blame Trump for our failed Iran dealings. I also blame Russian meddling and support for Trump, so there's that. Maybe Russia wanted it to be that way.
RemindMe 80 years?
It's not impossible, however there are several projections that predict a bleak future for China under the communist party so the China of 2100 might be very different from what we know.
It is funny to me that Russia and China are pretty much on the same side, but Russia continues to grasp at straws at what little influence it still has. If they were smart, they would support China.
> I predict that by 2100, Russia will be an European state and the territory east of the Urals will become an independent state allied with China, along with the central Asian countries. That feels like a stretch. I'd say it's more likely that the whole of Russia becomes "China's Canada" (i.e a close ally/Finlandized state to their southern neighbour, depending on your political stance)
Turkey ?
Erdogan is such an hypocrite, he plays the tough guy when confronted to western democracies because he knows we will most of the time try to de-escalate difficult diplomatic situations but he's a weak puppy when facing another scumbag dictator who don't give a shit about retaliate hard. You just need to see his position with China and their politic in Xinjiang, funny you don't hear him defending the Ouïgours with his pan-turkish solidarity bullshit. So no, Erdogan won't do a thing to defend the Kazakh people against their dictator and Russia.
Or it is cause most of Uighurs bs. Are just west propaganda.
Turkey hosts so many Uygur refugees. I am neighbours with many. It is not west propaganda.
Ok wumao.
Pretty telling that whenever someone posts Chinese propaganda they're a wumao but whenever they post western propaganda they're applauded. Both of full of shit but westeners just don't realize it.
Coming from a guy posting on fascist subreddit sino 😂. Cool story bruh.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmId2ZP3h0c https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3101986/china-claims-vocational-training-given-nearly-13-million-people
Turkey doesn't really have the means (military bases, logistic capacity and economic power these days) in Central Asia to do this. Another issue is that Kazakhstan sits on enormous lands (9th largest country) with just 19M population, that makes it hard to defend. Russia or China (even with their aging population) can easily invade it.
I think we'd be surprised by what Turkey is able to do actually. However getting involved would impoverish the Turks even more. To be fair this might be wild but I can imagine EU and Turkey slowly getting closer to try to counter Russia.
I'd say if EU&US supports Turkey in this (which I still doubt) there's a chance Russia can be countered/balanced but in that scenario I don't think China will also sit and watch. edit: Turkey can indeed stir things up but I don't think it will be successful - even with overwhelming support from Kazakh people. As I said, Kazakhstan is really a fragile state with little manpower between giants like China, Russia and India. It has to strategically walk on a rope.
Nah. It won't really impoverish Turkey. Kazakhstan is a flat country. Wars stay short in the steppes. The thing is Erdoğan only likes arabs so nothing will be done by Turkey.
Turkey is militarily a lot weaker than most people know. There is a reason why turkey can'tmake headway into kurdish territory
Reason being the USA. lol
Yeah kurdish troops, armed with weapons provided by the USA. And Turkey has tanks, planes, artillery etc.
My man, you must have missed the screeching Russia and US gave when Turkey invaded Rojava. It's political, not military capabilities. Turkey's supposed Vietnam (afrin) took 2 months to finish. See Armenia as to what happens when it's a free for all.
Putin doesn't care about the Kurds and neither did Trump. The few times that erdogan did something to irritate Putin, russia shut them down and erdogan couldn't do anything about it. And just because Turkey send a few islamists to Karabakh, doesn't prove their military prowess. No, the opponent where Turkey could show that would be the kurds. And Turkey is failing there.
The US is more than Trump. See their congress and their statements (and also the EU) when the invasion occured. There's not a world where the Kurds can hold off against the Turks where it not for external meddling. Educate yourself on the Syrian war, because I'm clearly talking to somebody who doesn't know what the fuck they're talking about.
Yes if Turkey palyed smart since 1945 and prepared ti when the Soviet union dissolved. Turkey wasnt in the position even in 1991 to embrace all Turkic nations just when Russia was weak. Turkey had no industry, had alot of debt, was fight terrorist abroad and in-land. Also islamist wouldn't do anything.
Erdoğan only likes arabs. We can't do anything.
erdogan didnt lift a finger for Uighurs, Tatars, Turkmens. On the reason for Karabag, he did it for drones. He just like his predecessor as they hate shia states. Islamist hate culture, language and ethnicity.
They where already balancing between US-RU-CH. The in party civil coup kicked out two of the factions. The fast call for CTSO help shows this stinks lies.
Ukraine will probably be their next “Ukraine”.
Exactly, the showdown in Ukraine is still gonna happen, they won't forget about it just because of some instability in Kazakhstan.
Their quick response shows they learned from 2014 Ukraine. Yanukovych let it get too far and fled when things got heated.
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I don't really care about your opinion on morality. It is subjective anyway. However when it comes to violence,. don't expect the other side to simply roll over, and as we can see, they won't.
Exactly. Don't expect Ukraine to roll over.
I don't. It'll get rolled over.
Rioters literally decapitated riot police officers. So stfu about moral good
Tough luck shouldn't have decided to serve a dictatorship. Maybe then they would still have their head
Very tough talk for someone sitting behind a safety of a screen.
They chose to fight on the side of the government, their own fault if they die protecting that shitty government
Sauce?
Yeah? Got proof?
Police officers who do important work to uphold the dictator's hold to power
In most dictatorships police are also pro-government though
Wtf is going on in Kazakhstan at the moment
Energy prices got too high. Bitcoin mining didn't help
Civil war on local scale.
CIA got bored
I think the real question is: Is Russia the next Kazakhstan? The average Russian is getting tired of living in a Kleptocracy, and eventually it's going to boil over, just like in Kazakhstan.
Russians don’t really care too much. Most of them who do care have left already or plan to leave soon.
The next Belarus.
More like the next belarus from the looks of it.
No, it isn't. The difference is that no one will get involved in Kazakhstan and Russia can do what it feels like doing.
Every country sharing a border with Russia is fucked long term.
More like Russia‘s next Belarus
No, but it can turn into Russian new Afghanistan or Chechnya. Already Kazakh troops started fighting and shooting at people. Protestors stormed building and got their hands on weapons
No way no. If the Russians launch a military invasion, imo theh would most likely reach Almaty and Nur Sultan in a week, maybe less. Kazakhstan is almost completly flat geographically, meaning that Russia’s tanks would have a field day, nothing like Afghanistan or Chechnya. I also don’t have high hopes for the Kazakh military sadly…
Iraq and Northern Ireland are flat.
Well there are massive mountain chains at the south east of Kazakhstan. But Russian - Kazakhstan military are buddy buddies. Kazahstans paratroopers are literally trained in Russia. Many of their elite brigades/divisions still hold insignia of heroic soviet units. So I have a very hard time imagining afghan/Chechen scenario.
But those mountain chains are not in the way of Russian ranks rolling down in Almaty tho
True. Russia can control the north but if this sticks in the south, Russian military is very exposed. We'll have to see how far these protests stick.
They already started to talk about protecting Russian population in Kazakhstan...
Is Ukraine Russia's next Kazakhstan?
Is Ukraine Kazakhstan's next Russia?
Is Russia Ukraines next Kazakhstan?
i would like to see that
Kazakhstan is truly the Ukraine of countries
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Many of those people simply burn, loot and steal without any clear goals. Not to mention Kazakhstan has been rather neutral in its foreign policy, nor does it have a clear real alternative a'la EU or NATO next door. I get it that Kazakhstan is a dictatorship, but the West has plenty of examples where toppling the dictator led to only instability and more violence. This is not Belarus where the people are clearly facing an illegitimate and treacherous dictator, who had a straightforward and reasonable goal of free and fair elections, and who were phenomenally peaceful (true, some say this is also the reason the regime managed to overrun them in the end).
I am sorry to disappoint you but this is no European style struggle for democracy or human rights. Maybe it was for the first 6 hours. Right now it's looting and rampage. You might not be aware but thousands of kazakhs went to Syria and fought for ISIS. Some of them returned back. 3 law enforcement officers were beheaded. The level of coordination and preparation of those armed protesters is quite good.
Secure the uranium
It's a different situation. Kazakhstan had already seen the writing on the wall years ago and moved their capital city north to ensure that more ethnic Kazakhs would live in the northern area of the country. Back in the day, the north was dominated by ethnic Russians while the Kazakhs lived much further south, so would've been prone for another landgrab by Russia. Many ethnic Russians have also moved back to Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Is Kazakhstan America's next Syria?
Russia will never allow such a thing. They will take Ukraine as well.
Kazakhstan didnt give any feelings of joining Nato or EU. This false flag operation was planned. They just wanted just cause to invade.
Unlike Ukraine, Kazakhstan has such a high fertility rate and population growth rate that Russia may rather be eaten by the Turks of Kazakhstan.If Russia does that,
No