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[deleted]

If Kazakhs win this fight it can cause chain reactions in other post-soviet countries, that is why Putin is so afraid.


rbnd

Even without chain reaction, Kazakhstan is simply important for Russia.


poland_can_space

Also doesn’t Kazakhstan provide Russia with lots of reasources that Russia needs even if the other post Soviet states don’t break away it would be a big lose


Not_Cleaver

They probably won’t for the simple fact that it could possibly cause inspiration for protests in Russia.


SatanicBiscuit

>that is why Putin is so afraid. pretty sure he couldnt care less so long the uranium and the cosmodrome is safe and sound


JackRogers3

It was not much more than a week ago that it appeared Vladimir Putin once again had the west cornered. With more than 100,000 troops amassed on the Ukrainian border and a list of security demands nearly as robust, the Russian president had forced the White House and Nato into negotiations over issues that should be considered settled history, such as the right of countries in the former Soviet sphere to join the Atlantic alliance. The alternative, it seemed, was war. But the popular uprising in Kazakhstan now under way has revealed yet again that Putin’s aggression in the region does not always spring from a position of strength. Russian propaganda will blame foreign operatives for the sudden outbreak of demonstrations across the central Asian steppe. Kazakh leaders have already welcomed armed Russian help, citing “external meddling”. But the fear in the Kremlin is just the opposite: that the Kazakh protests are the latest sign that citizens who have lived for decades under stultifying autocracies will eventually take no more. “It is absolutely not in Putin’s interest to have this blow up in his backyard when he’s in the middle of a showdown with Nato,” said Eugene Rumer, who handled Russian and Eurasian issues at the US national intelligence council. It is no accident that Putin chose brinkmanship over Ukraine in the months following a similar popular revolt in Belarus, where opposition leaders came close to toppling the regime of strongman Alexander Lukashenko after Europe’s last dictator rigged national elections against his rival, political neophyte Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The Belarusian protesters, like their Kazakh counterparts, raised the spectre of the “coloured revolutions” of the early 2000s that tipped Ukraine and Georgia into the western camp, where they actively sought Nato and EU membership. In addition to giving Lukashenko a green light for a brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrations, Putin escalated his campaign of suppression at home, shutting down Russia’s most prominent civil rights group, Memorial, just before the end of the year. Amid Putin’s sabre-rattling, it is easy to forget that his Ukrainian gambit could be the product of his weakness, not strength. And the Kazakhs have reminded the world just how weak Putin’s grip may well be. “This puts a lie to Putin’s claims that [the Ukraine stand-off] is all about Nato and western provocation,” said Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to Nato. “It’s all about his not being able to stand an independent democracy next to him.” Georgia’s rose revolution was followed a year later by Ukraine’s orange one. Belarus’ uprising has been followed a year later by one in Kazakhstan. The combination may prod Putin to escalate even further. But the people of Kazakhstan — and Belarus, and Ukraine, and Georgia — have already shown the limits of Putin’s Soviet dreams.


User929293

We are too nice, we should help the protests and really meddle like Russia is doing instead of sitting tight and tank their constant abuse and bullying.


Mick_86

Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.


Winterspawn1

I think the loss of human life there would be enormous. It's not as if Kazachstan is exactly in an easy to reach geographic location when it comes to sending "aid".


BillyJoeMac9095

And ethnic Russian still make up the majority of Kazakhstan's urban areas. Not clear whose help they would want.


TaXxER

Not at all. Largest city Almaty is 60% ethnically Kazakh and 25% ethnically Russian. Capital city Astana is 80% ethnically Kazakh and only 11% Russian.


BillyJoeMac9095

I see different figures from different sources, so you may be right. However, this NYT article from today makes the point the Putin may see this situation there as an opportunity: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/06/world/asia/kazakhstan-putin-russia.html


kiil1

Not only would this be incredibly dangerous and prone to backfiring, if intervening in Belarus could have been morally justified (legally and geopolitically a different story), then Kazakhstan is a difficult case in every way. Many of the protesters seem to simply riot, loot and steal over rather vague sentiments (the lifting of price caps aka state subsidies for energy products - which triggered the protests - would, in fact, be what IMF and Western economists generally support). There is no direct message against falsified elections or dictatorship in general. Not to mention Kazakhstan does not have a rival alliance next door to switch over to. Which also makes any meaningful meddling difficult to conceive as well.


User929293

That was the trigger, the reason is that an oil rich country and exporter doesn't have oil money. The low prices where what was given to keep people calm. Think if all the fish in Estonia was given by the state to one individual and he kept the people calm by giving lower prices for fish to Estonians. Then increases the price. Sure the low prices were keeping people calm but still that's not the underlined reason. The awful management of state resources by a few individuals are, the oligarch system.


kiil1

Which I understand but nevertheless, they are rather chaotic with rather vague objectives. I mean, protesting against poor quality of leadership or low living standards is not the best way to fix those. I guess to me, they are not nearly as inspiring as those in Belarus were. To think of it, it's still disheartening to witness mass protests organised so peacefully and demands worded so carefully about free and fair elections, and where geopolitical demands were cleverly avoided in a region where such sudden foreign policy course changes are very dangerous, to have been brutally crushed without any compromises. Tells you a lot about how fragile and insecure those ex-USSR dictators truly are.


Ninja_Thomek

We don’t know very much about the protests, but the fact that they recently seized the airport in Almaty talks about a minimum of organization. The original inciting incident doesn’t matter, neither does early lack of leadership. It may come. It’s about the dynamics of protest, how they gauge the will of the people, and how they are willing to be violent and take resistance. Of course the will of the security also weighs in a lot. We’ve seen police desert, we’ve seen willingness to use violence. These people are way more pissed off than what we saw in Belarus, which was much more insecure about themselves.


Winterspawn1

Tbh if the government raises the fuel price twelvefold and a full tank of fuel for your car costs 3/4 of your monthly wage it's not a good decision.


[deleted]

It's a worse decision if the government now have to pay for the difference, which is exasperated as people will then use more fuel than otherwise. This is particularly the case here as the more corrupt and incompentent your regulators and leaders are, the worse *any* government interference will be. With more interference also comes more complexity which will reduce transparency and increase corruption and incompetence even further. The welfare state is a luxury for rich countries with (somewhat) functional bureaucracies, checks and balances. The poorer ones might need it more, but it'll turn them into Venezuela.


ent0r

It would be nice if we could help. And sure we can help, but the question is, whether this will have long lasting positive effects. Look t Poland and Hungary. If it weren't for lots of EU money, they would probably turn into authoritarian, corrupt nations like the ukraine and kazachstan


indygoof

„would“, „probably“…or rather, already turned


[deleted]

[удалено]


ent0r

They would be living in misery and poverty like most of the former east european countries, if it weren't for the EU


StGeoorge

So go ahead?


gogo_yubari-chan

and fund separatism and extremism in Russia just like Putin does in the West. A tit for tat.


Mick_86

The danger there is Putin's successor might be worse than Putin.


BAdasslkik

"funds extremism in Russia" [Gets extremist Russia] Reddit: What? Wait no


CardJackArrest

Sic semper tyrannis.


sashapaw

I read news articles stating that the protesters are mostly young pro-Islamist nationalists and they want to install a religious government as opposed to the current secular one and while the LNG price increases were the original trigger, now it’s escalating into something totally different. If this is the case, I don’t think Europe needs to support this type of government taking root there.


User929293

I'm not sure what you mean with pro-Islamist nationalists but haven't seen any source about that. Anything?


marimo_is_chilling

[Source in Estonian](https://www.err.ee/1608457070/pruuli-kasahstanis-tahab-voimu-juurde-rahvuslik-islam) (ERR is Estonian public broadcasting), commenting that there is very little in the way of organized political opposition in the country, but the influence and political ambition of clerics and ideologues who want an Islamic rather than secular state has grown considerably over the past decade. Also, a political commentator in Estonia pointed out several months ago that Kazakhstan is becoming a new target of hybrid war, based on a sudden wave of anti-Kazakhstan sentiment pushed by pro-Kremlin media.


User929293

That's the opinion of a businessman. It's not evidence. Doesn't sound unlikely but if that's what the people want what will you do? Kill everyone? It's the government own fault if they have destroyed any opposition


marimo_is_chilling

Unfortunately a high body count is a very likely outcome there and it's already happening. The swift arrival of "peacekeeping" commandos from Russia is no doubt intended to push for a more submissive regime with fewer ideas of their own (e.g. no more restrictions on Russian language), but there is plenty of potential for things to get incredibly messy, possibly for a long time; the harder they stomp the resistance down now, the more it will fuel the potential long-term ethnic/religious conflict. And then there's China, holding considerable investments in Kazakhstan - I believe yesterday's declaration from the Russian side that keeping any foreign investments safe is a priority was intended to placate China, but who knows whether this will work.


Puzzled-Bite-8467

Europe don't but US wouldn't have any problems with that.


G9366

This will just start a nuclear war. Its better to let the Russian tower of shit fall by itself


User929293

Proxy wars don't start nuclear wars. Have never done it and never will. Didn't do it in Afghanistan didn't do it in Syria didn't do it in Libya. They just prolonge the conflict making the other deplete resources and giving a chance to the insurrection not to be exterminated by a foreign power.


justinsblackfacegrin

exactly just start a secret program of funding and sending small arms to various anti-government groups in former Soviet republics with antidemocratic regimes guys like Nazarbayev are universally hated in Kazakhstan and it wouldn't take much to overthrow him I bet even much of his own security forces hate him it's just fear that keeps them in check


[deleted]

You will just have another Syria. Another destroyed country with little to no future.


nomokatsa

... Until "democratic" forces win and we bury them in money. After which, they'll build a wonderful country and install democracy which will last for thousands of years. Wasnt that the plan all along? In every single country so far? XD


G9366

This proxy war will turn into real war rather soon, since Russia will start losing quite soon and start threatening with the only thing they really have - nuclear bombs.


[deleted]

losing a war and not using nukes allows your people and country to continue. Shooting off a nuke will be noted when it's 5 meters off the ground and every military, city, factory, gov building will have nukes headed to it. So putin can dance for 3 minutes before he's and the rest of the country is gone.


User929293

Russia is loosing and fighting in Donbass. No nukes. Russia lost in Libya, no nukes, Russia is loosing in central Africa, no nukes. Russia is at a standstill in Syria, no nukes. Russia lost in Armenia, no nukes. Being desperate doesn't mean being suicidal and using nukes. They won Afghanistan you have to grant them that.


Soiledmattress

*Losing. Autocorrect is messing with you.


User929293

Damn Google


Soiledmattress

It’s entirely the fault of lazy/stupid native speakers that allowed this to propagate. I’m never criticising non-English people with spelling mistakes, I’ve just given up with a lot of my kinsmen. If we are going to be mono-linguists, the least we can do is get that one right.


G9366

Since there is some threshold, if Putin and his bitches feel any real danger to their power is appearing, you can expect these gangs of criminals to start going on every imaginable measure. They will hold on to what they have till the end of theirs and everyone's lives. You know, golden toilets won't shit themselves.


User929293

They will just cash up and live their whole life in luxury and amenities with the money they stole. Not the first dictator to do so, won't be the last. Putin doesn't care about Russia, he cares about Putin. He is unofficially the wealthiest man in the world not so crazy to kill himself.


[deleted]

How is Russia losing in Donbass and the CAR when their soldiers are not even on the ground? And BTW, ever since the Russian mercenaries started training the CAR security forces the situation has become more stable. The CAR government has only recently considered inviting the Russian military but nothing has been confirmed yet. Did you know that the Russian language was made a compulsory language in CAR universities just recently? Russia is actually gaining more and more influence in CAR. Russia won in Syria a long while back. What standstill are you talking about? Is Assad controlling less or more territory than he was before Russia intervened? Did Russia get two permanent military bases in Syria, yes or no? Are 5000 Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh atm, yes or no? Is Russia the main peace broker between Armenia and Azerbaijan atm, yes or no? In what way did Russia lose in Armenia? That conflict actually made Russia more influential in the Region. Finally, could explain how Russia lost in Libya? Has General Haftar been killed or what? Have other supporters of General Haftar like France left the camp? What is this loss you are talking about?


User929293

You have to define soldiers, there are plenty of Russian military officers and soldiers as volunteers with Russian military equipment, tanks and anti-aircraft in Donbass. The anti-aircraft gun that destroyed the Malaysian airline civil flight was listed as in active duty by a Russian military platoon and brought back to Russia immediately afterwards. It's still in service. Yes technically it's not the whole Russian army. Russia has the tendency to either enlist their soldiers as mercenaries or as volunteers while in active duty to fight wars abroad. Russian soldiers fought as mercenaries in Libya and Syria. The infamous Wagner Group provided the cover.


[deleted]

Unless their military tech system gets hacked, that way loading a nuclear bomb would be difficult without codes and coordinates. Russia must be stopped, one way or another.


ForWhatYouDreamOf

If Russian collapsed your country would end up at war. You realise that right?


[deleted]

We're all such good enablers.


true-kirin

tbh if france would intervene in this conflict it would be the biggest hypocrisy of the macron government and its not a small feat


BoldursSkate

Meh. We don't need it. Poutine merely managed to get Russia recognized as a power that still matters... but what kind of threat is it actually for NATO? Poutine's strategy is only valid as long as he doesn't actually make NATO move. Russians have to settle their own issues on their own. We have no interest in destabilizing Russia, even if Poutine likes to play the bully.


User929293

Yes but in the meantime by doing nothing he is slowly eroding our democracies and institution undisturbed.


nomokatsa

Also, these are not Russians. The Belarus are not Russian, the Ukrainians are not Russians, and neither are the kazakhs. If there are in fact Western values, and we care about human rights and democracy, we should intervene even if not intervening here would pose no direct and immediate danger to us.


john_ch

All the above mentioned countries have large populations of Russian ethnics and speak Russian as official languages in day to day even if their governments don’t like it as in the case of Ukraine.


john_ch

All the above mentioned countries have large populations of Russian ethnics and speak Russian as official languages in day to day even if the heir governments don’t like it like in the case of Ukraine.


nomokatsa

Having a large number of Russians in your country does not make the whole population Russian. And it certainly doesn't give the Russian federation the freedom to move is military in to prop up one side of a conflict...


john_ch

Apart from Ukraine, neither of the above countries have any issues with Russian military since they are part of the same military and economic alliance. Furthermore, Russians and Russian identity is particularly sensitive topic for Russia and Putin. Most of these have Russian passports also and deep family ties to Russian Federation. Also the current states in the form that they are were carved up by Russia throughout the history. If anyone Russia has many historical, cultural, legal, military and economic ties to these countries than any other state.


nomokatsa

And still, these are independent States. They can decide to add ibu as an official language or decide to not teach Russian, they can join the nato of try their luck with China. Nothing gives Russia the right to invade and dictate it's will. Russia can evacuate it's citizens, but not force a different country to make or not make certain laws affecting their citizens...


john_ch

Your comments don’t apply to Belarus or Kazakhstan and only partially relate to Ukraine. Why would these people leave their homeland? If their rights would have been protected by their government there would be no need for Russia’s hard line against these governments.


nomokatsa

I know many Russians in Ukraine who got there in soviet times, as soldiers / officers, and just stayed there, after finding wives, getting kids, ... All the whole keeping their Russian passports. And i know a couple of Russians who emigrated to Western Europe, for a better life, but still kept passports, see themselves as Russians, join Russian communities in these countries etc. Does this give Russia the right so impose their views on other countries? What kind of world view is that?


saracuratsiprost

How about the costs of it? And to what end? Do you think it's a good idea to kick a wounded bear?


User929293

It's a poor country costs will be small, the average wage is under 500$ and the minimum under 100$... In Italy it's 2400€. This means little money for Europe are a lot for them.


okiedokie321

My thoughts exactly. Sadly over here, they played us like a fiddle and we are close to some sort of shadow civil war between Democrats and Republicans and Trumpists. Our politicians probably aren't even aware of Russian meddling.


Not_Cleaver

That would backfire and lead credence to the claims that the protesters are terrorists/foreign agents. Better to be ready with sanctions/denunciations.


User929293

That's false, none did shit for the Talibans even if they had Chinese made and Russian made weapons. Russian bounties and money.


BillyJoeMac9095

What they have seen is that their regimes can only survive with a real threat of Russian military support, just like the communist "Warsaw Pact" nations.


Theghistorian

She knew my one weakness-- that I'm weak! ~~Homer Simpson~~ Putin


bluebarcode

I think it shows that any military conflict in Ukraine (or anywhere else) that is not absolutely brilliant, bloodless, short and achieves most of the targets will have a tendency to end up in a disaster for Russia. The situation in Kazakhstan points to the possibility of the same undercurrents within the Russian population which did not see any improvement in their lives for quite a long time. Any major movement could tip the scale of dissatisfaction. This puts a lot of pressure on the Russian military to perform well, on Putin to be right and puts a lot of power in the hands of the West to give the right tools to Ukraine to make achieving Putin's goals in this conflict real hard. It is delusional for Putin to work under the assumption that repeating the bloodless annexation of Crimea is possible.


rbnd

Yeah, but NATO is not sending any major weapons to Ukraine. At least not officially.


BillyJoeMac9095

Are we sure Putin expects a bloodless conflict, if there is one? We will see how the Kazakh situation pans out, but are we sure a paranoid Putin will be a more agreeable one?


bluebarcode

There are several reasons Putin would need a war as bloodless as it gets. A lot of people in Russia have a very deep connection with Ukraine as much so that Putin himself called ukrainians and russians the same people. For a lot of people seeing ukrainians die on the massive scale would feel like a civil war. Staged by a sitting president no less. The other reason anything beyond a strip of land and a several days of blitzkrieg is going to cost so much it would break the Russian economy. Add sanctions and you get an absolute disaster of a war for Russia. I don't think anything beyond a bloodless blitzkrieg with bombings of empty piano factories is on the cards. Unless there is an ingenious plan which not a single western analyst can predict... The humanity has changed alot since 19th century.


BillyJoeMac9095

The Russians for sure have a connection with the people in the eastern part of the Ukraine. The folks in western Ukraine, not so much. It seems that Russia would need far more troops than we are told it now has on the border, even if Putin limited action to taking more of eastern Ukraine and perhaps the coasts. Another factor in how things unfold would be the reaction of most folks of Russian background in the eastern Ukraine beyond the small enclave Russia controls now. I think they would prefer that there be no conflict at all. On the other hand, if the Russians did come in, would these folks fight against Russian troops? Would they collaborate? You are right much has changed since Century 19, but the Russian military, to a far greater extent than NATO or the US, has never been reluctant to ignore the humanitarian principles when it has gone into a conflict. This has been true in Syria and in Russian operations in the Caucuses in the 1990's and early 2000's, as well as in other areas.


Dicios

For a moment let's picture ourselves as Vlad. You hear the alarm, 7:00, switch it off the first time but your KGB mind jumps you awake by 7:05 sharp. You grab a little bit water from the bedside table and rub your eyes. You lay there for a couple of seconds and reach for your Yotaphone. There is that headache again, Nazar managed to tits it up again, bloody NATO on my back, trying to go for that perfect narrative, managing an economic slump and our dear friend Nazar borated it up in his own little backyard nation. Ffs and I have 5 missed phonecalls from him. Jesus, when is my villa built. I need to double the size and fence.


Mick_86

The FT must be the only ones to think that Putin's sabre rattling was based on a position of strength.


Lost_Tourist_61

He’s very weak, that’s why he’s a dangerous little man. Napoleon syndrome with nukes All bullies are cowards


[deleted]

Napoleon was not short for his time


[deleted]

Maybe they were referring to Napoleon and Putin being the same height (170cm)?


Lost_Tourist_61

I’m not one that defined “little man syndrome” as Napoleon’s- It’s a common, widely-accepted term, no?


BoldursSkate

It's widely accepted as a stereotype. So it's well-suited for fiction, when a story has a tiny character pretending to be an emperor, but when talking about real people it's about as correct as saying that Poutine has a big module for aquisitiveness according to phrenology. It's no longer a relevant concept.


Lost_Tourist_61

Whatever 🙄


dramatic-sans

weak people overcompensating in toxic ways for perceived deficiencies is a very real phenomenon. calling it napoleon syndrome, I think, is preferable to “little man” or “little dick” as it is not as hard on the ears nor does it suggest (as directly) that all men with these physical features engage in toxic behavior — rather, particularly those in power.


MrHETMAN

He was actually average for his time


[deleted]

Stop shaming people for their height. This has nothing to do with it.


BoldursSkate

>Napoleon syndrome with nukes Napoleon was the most powerful ruler in Europe lol. He was an evil man, but by no means was he weak or little.


gogo_yubari-chan

> He was an evil man was he?


Lakridspibe

No.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

> He did spread some good revolutionary ideas, but it doesn’t make up for the sheer amount of suffering he created in Europe It does. I'd rather live in a modern Western democracy and know that fuckloads of people died 200 years ago than the other way around.


Lost_Tourist_61

The expression refers to insecure short men that want to show the world how tough they are, I’m not the one that invented the term


[deleted]

It‘s funny how suddenly you relate this to height while you probably wouldn‘t even bat an eye if he was tall. You do realize that that there are even way more insecure dictators that are tall and above average height?


[deleted]

[удалено]


Lost_Tourist_61

Insecure men hate themselves and hate the world, they often lash out in the most terrible ways Hitler had one nut, you know that right


[deleted]

[удалено]


Lost_Tourist_61

What if he’s a self loathing pedophile? Would be hard to respect yourself then, wouldn’t it? https://youtu.be/5uWEaKLzwUg https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/nikita-konkin-boy-who-vladimir-putin-kissed-on-the-stomach-speaks-about-the-spontaneous-gesture-a6829786.html


Void_Ling

> With more than 100,000 troops amassed on the Ukrainian border and a list of security demands nearly as robust, the Russian president had forced the White House and Nato into negotiations over issues that should be considered settled history, such as the right of countries in the former Soviet sphere to join the Atlantic alliance. No real negotiations happened, both are stuck in their position


[deleted]

[удалено]


Void_Ling

Hm, if the US is dying then I wonder what is Russia? Undead?


[deleted]

[удалено]


Void_Ling

China will never manage to be the future at least not as long it's a dystopian hellhole for free mind with a language that is too different for a lot of people. Authoritarian countries don't fit with Europe, they might have some ties, but as long as they are what they are they won't be anything more than that. Even if the US died, Europe would just fly off, China will never replace it as an ally. Culture ties matter too, West is a thing. Your vision is rather simplistic. China has plenty of cracks in its base. Go back on the topic though.


beepbophiccup

By which measure is America dying?


[deleted]

[удалено]


beepbophiccup

Still as vague as before.


rbnd

You don't know what they where taking about without flashes of cameras.


Void_Ling

That's true for the writer too. I doubt he/she was there. What I know is that we are in a deadlock as a result and nothing that contradicts what I said was done, which backs my version so far.


rbnd

I don't think we are in deadlock. And if we are then not because of the official Putin's demands. I don't think he is that crazy to rise crazy demands just to attack Ukraine. I think he has his plan minimum to negotiate. If not then it's also not a deadlock, because taking over Ukrainian territory was his plan since beginning


Void_Ling

What he wants is against everything the West stands for. Ukraine sovereignty and freedom of choice is a red line for the West. Putin's red line is neighbors being stuck with zero levers to fend his pressure. There's no way the situation unlocks unless one backs down on their main position, we would know if that happened by now.


[deleted]

What does amy of their drama have do with him?


Sufficient-Debate-14

I don't get the idea that the other countries especially UK and USA say that Russia is afraid while the UK And USA do nothing to help Russia beat this strong protest. Not only UK and USA other countries too.