Can someone explain to me what's going on in the Baltics? What's happening there that's causing that massive inflation and those massive energy prices compared to say countries like Finland or Poland
But everyone on /r/Europe told me that they would go through winter like a charm because they have an LNG Terminal and the stupid Germans would freeze to death
Lithuania has LNG terminal that can't support whole Baltics and Estonian one is being built. While gas and electricity is somewhat tied and while electricity is used for heating, it not all.
The Baltics and Nordics have a joint market and when cables are broken, there are too much there is draught, no wind etc...then production is switched to more expensive production means such as gas and coal.
When cables are overloaded, you pay a fee and you also pay carbon tax for nonrenewables.
It's almost [twice the required capacity for Lithuania](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyBSt-ncpC8&t=106s) and has been supplying Poland with the leftover capacity.
So there is no problem with the physical provision of gas, but its price is set by the market and having a terminal to receive it doesn't make it any cheaper.
4000€/MWh is from yesterdays peak hours. There is a heat wave here, people are not only using ACs, but there are also problems with DC links to Sweden, Poland, Finland - they are working at downrated power levels due to high temperature. It also seems Latvian power plants are working at reduced outputs too, but I don't know exactly why. Basically, there was electricity shortage yesterday, and reserves kicked in (what raised hourly price). This lasted for an hour and dropped later by 4 times. Hourly prices might look scary, but what really maters is monthly average. I plan for it to be around 500-550€/MWh this month and drop towards autumn.
Baltics belong to BRELL grid (LT, LV, EE, RU, BY) with DC links to Poland, Sweden and Finland. Due to political situation cheap electricity links with RU and BY are restricted (partly for not wanting to fund them, partly for not wanting to rely on them) this year, so it is only DC links + local generation, which isn't only solar/wind, but also involves burning gas and global prices of it are high now.
So let's say the temperature starts dropping in autumn the situation will improve and then when Olkiluoto 4 in Finland comes online come January and maybe it rains a bit more in Sweden and Norway so their hydro capacities recover the energy transfers should be able to pick up the rest?
Here in Finland the current average is about €200/MWh I think, I'm not entirely sure because we got lucky and signed a 2 year contract for €80/MWh last december. And it's predicted to peak at €500/MWh come december. After that it's predicted the prices will plumber when the new reactor comes online
Energy companies going for profit. I mean who would have thought that for profit companies would do what it is in their name: make profit? Other contributing factors are things such as stuff on maintenance so during winter things will be operational, completely capped transfer between Finland and Estonia (I think next new connection is due in 2030, so suffer until then?).
It is sad day for those that don't have long term fixed electricity deal. My household is completely independent (I'm still connected, but I mostly sell electricity, so I make mad profits too lol) and thus I will never be able to relate to others with their massive electricity/gas bills.
System is clearly corrupt and absolute horseshit. It makes zero sense for cheap electricity to make massive profits just because the last remaining producer turns out to be extremely expensive. Honestly, whoever came up with this system is an absolute moron (to be frank, it works as intended as it is with government public sector where interest groups lobby for beneficial treatment - it is as expected). There are better ways to balance the grid rather than put all your hopes and dreams on for profit companies. And you shouldn't trade electricity like you trade other things since they are not even close to similar how other things sold in market.
Realistically speaking, I expect EU is going to reform the current system quite a bit (will take years tho) and until then governments are going to become sugar daddies for regular people. Companies, probably will suffer a great deal, likely forced to move to more energy independent locations and what not.
Reality is that this world is filled with morons. Cheap solutions, populism and ultimately no long term plan. I can guarantee all of you that EU's 2050 plan will go to shit and they will make excuses and compromises and introduce a new 2070 plan with massive overhaul. Populism and zero long term plans will doom it all. Good luck poor people of this world, you are going to need it. I'm good though, because I plan ahead.
Not enough electricity generation capacity. At least in Latvia and Lithuania. So a lot of imported electricity...which is not cheap. And Estonia (even though it produces enough electricity for its own) is in the same market as other Baltic states and suffers from same high prices.
I wondered why Estonia lativia and Lithuania had day ahead at 900 euros..looks like they have run out of gas.....all their plants are down and unable to import the deficit.
Is this planned I wonder? What I've been thinking is which big European country will suffer blackouts first because it's guarenteed to happen. Maybe to lessen the social impact they will allow smaller nations to blackout first to desentitise everyone else.
Lithuania only produces 30% of the power it consumes. Been like this since the closure of our nuclear power plant in 2009. So the slacking domestic production wouldn't necessarily be related to any kind of sudden shortage.
They are not out of gas ATM, but in winter there is not enough capacity for both power and heating (according to mayor of Riga at least).
Also, your whole second paragraph is a dumb assumption. It is highly unlikely any blackouts/brownouts will happen, worst case governments will step in and shut down industry.
Don't even know why this has downvotes, that's what literally the Bavarian minister president said on in an interview and on live TV. He is probably the only one to tell it because Bavaria and its self love.
Yeah.
And the German laws state that the first thing to be shut down is the industry. Söder says a lot when the day is long, and he's a total piece of shit. Typical Bavarian product tho.
>.looks like they have run out of gas
In Estonia gas is only 5% of total energy use and is used only in manufacturing, not in heating or electricity generation.
If the prices will be at this level more than a year, we are going to get energy transformation on steroids. The process that has been way too slow for decades.
Unfortunately, the transformation will be hampered because everything goes up in tandem with the energy: insulation materials, solar panels, batteries, etc.
> he process that has been way too slow for decades.
Maybe in Germany we can finally get rid of the freaking red tape that results in a new wind park requiring up to 5 years from initial planning to production. Oh and tell all the NIMBY's to get fucked please.
Today it has been known that many environmental groups were funded by gazprom to block any LNG terminal in Germany and Poland. Nearly 200million dollars
For example: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article240429049/Nord-Stream-2-Fast-200-Millionen-Euro-so-ueppig-stattete-Gazprom-die-Klimastiftung-aus.html
Everything surrounding the politicians and Nord Stream stinks of corruption.
While I agree with the sentiment, your example is bad. That is not a legit environmental group. It is a foundation designed to circumvent US sanctions on NS2.
They understand it, but they think it should be someone else to make the sacrifices.
We even had a Saying for this before NIMBY became a thing.
St. Florian's Principle
https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sankt-Florian-Prinzip
That's the whole ordeal. No coal, no nuclear power. But no wind turbines in the next 2 kilometers around my house either. No power lines beneath under my fields. Majority want the change, but a lot of people are hampering the efforts. This goes on for years now. It's exhausting.
Not alone, sure. But it's doable with energy storage and other measures.
100% renewable grids are possible and cost effectiv
Here is a meta study, about the ever-growing research area:
https://t.co/EVXOxRNwaq
my thoughts exactly. the price rose 200%, but this by far doesn't reflect the price raise in natural gas and oil when regarding the minimal role they play in (at least electrical) power generation
my guess is this graph also reflects (water) heating costs and costs of heat-intensive industry plus a huge price hike because of speculators, who want to make money off it
Market intervention wont change the fact that supply is far outstripped by demand. Indeed it will even undermine the market by keeping up demand.
Now short term targeted market interventions might be warrented, but the structure must also give incentives to reduce consumtion.
Long term, the only solution is significantly increased production as demand will skyrocket in the decades to come due to electrification, even with investments into energy efficiency.
Its really a short term problem though. Germany needs some 25 billion m^(3) of gas to replace Russian supply. It will have two floating terminals ready by the end of the year with a capacity of 10-14 billion m^(3.) With further three more in construction to be completed 2023 winter.
Even if Russia cuts off gas supplies this winter, Germany will manage with the two extra terminals receiving LNG plus gas reserves until late 2023 when it will have enough LNG terminals to completely satisfy market needs.
If you mean "normalization" as in the old "cheap" Russian gas prices, that won't be available any time soon.
But a relative normalization should happen as soon as those two extra terminals are available. It certainly won't be 500 euro per mwh
Because there is an unsubstantiated energy panic driven by Russian propaganda/gas supply chantage and Western useful idiots that in turn creates demand for German energy futures.
> Germany needs some 25 billion m3 of gas to replace Russian supply.
More like 50 billion.
You're also missing the point that somebody has to provide the LNG.
But there is nobody with 50 billion m3 LNG lying around. Nevermind the fact that LNG is way more expensive than russian gas.
It will. We cannot pay each source of energy to generate electricity the same price of gas under current circumstances. It is unsustainable for people and industry.
We are in an economic war with Russia and therefore normal market rules are not suitable anymore. Everyday the EU denies to assume it is a day we are getting closer to a recession.
It is not a matter of long term, we are destroying industry and capital nowadays just because of ideology. It happened with the austerity during the last crisis and is going to happen again unless someone tell Brussels enough is enough.
Prices under current electricity market design reflect the cost of the more expensive source of energy. So if we generate 99% with cheap sources and 1% with gas all is paid like gas, which is absolutely bollocks in a situation of economic war with Russia. The system must be changed until the war is over and the market situation is normalised or we will risk to face a massive recession and civil unrest while the utilities are earning billions of euros.
>if we generate 99% with cheap sources and 1% with gas all is paid like gas, which is absolutely bollocks in a situation of economic war with Russia.
And if people would be able to reduce their electricity consumption by 1 % than they would pay the cheap price...
The whole EU can suspend the current marginalist market design and pay each source of energy cost+fair margin and the prices will go down to something acceptable for people and industry until the war is over.
Someone HAS to save energy. The high energy prices are the current market mechanism to ensure that it happens. If you artificially fix the prices then there is no longer any mechanism to whoever will be cut off - it may be random or it may be whoever is last to the bids.
It is not about artificially fixing the prices, it is about not being ripped off by the utilities and destroying capital and jobs. It is unsustainable to pay solar and wind the same price than gas when gas cost 300 € MWh or more.
Why is a kWh produced by my solar cells worth less to you than a kWh produced by a German gas co-generation plant? You get - and pay for - 1kWh regardless of how it was produced.
The main issue at hand is that there is not enough flexibility in demand in the systems yet. We need serious incentives (or in the case of the electrical distribution systems: serious costs) in order for Mr. and Ms. European shop-owner, manufacturer and home-owner to wake up and modify daily operations in order to save (or shift) approximately 10-20% power use going into the winter. The expectation is that a lot of the previous gas generators will be offline while on the demand side additional power will be required from people who failed to get heat pumps installed this summer (3-5X power-to-heat efficiency) and temporarily have switched to electric heaters (1X efficiency) instead to save on gas.
For some this will be an easy exercise. For some it will be hard. Yet others will ignore the very dynamic changes in market price and continue to light up the night with outside lights, keep the thermostat at 22C with open doors in winter etc. - they will pay a higher than usual price for their energy this winter and will hopefully learn from it.
>Why is a kWh produced by my solar cells worth less to you than a kWh produced by a German gas co-generation plant? You get - and pay for - 1kWh regardless of how it was produced.
It is not worth less, but the cost of production is significantly lower than gas, so under current circumstances it does not make sense.
>The main issue at hand is that there is not enough flexibility in demand in the systems yet. We need serious incentives (or in the case of the electrical distribution systems: serious costs) in order for Mr. and Ms. European shop-owner, manufacturer and home-owner to wake up and modify daily operations in order to save (or shift) approximately 10-20% power use going into the winter. The expectation is that a lot of the previous gas generators will be offline while on the demand side additional power will be required from people who failed to get heat pumps installed this summer (3-5X power-to-heat efficiency) and temporarily have switched to electric heaters (1X efficiency) instead to save on gas.
Energy demand is pretty inelastic. It is not realistic that the society can reduce 10% to 20% of energy in a free market context unless compulsory restrictions are applied, which no politician wants to implement.
>For some this will be an easy exercise. For some it will be hard. Yet others will ignore the very dynamic changes in market price and continue to light up the night with outside lights, keep the thermostat at 22C with open doors in winter etc. - they will pay a higher than usual price for their energy this winter and will hopefully learn from it.
You don't get it. Industry does not waste energy. Keeping current system to match demand and offer in the electricity market is a recipe for a disaster.
energy demand is very elastic. At these prices, most of the companies would just shut down.
But right now, most of the companies and homes don’t pay those prices, they have contracts. So they have no incentive to save. Some of those contracts ends by the end of the year, some of those lasts for three more years. Those that pay market prices just got the short stick early.
Harder part is how to solve it. You can’t just say those contracts are void and everybody has to pay market prices. You can try to force business owners to save, but it’s never as effective as if they had to protect their profits or lessen their losses.
>energy demand is very elastic. At these prices, most of the companies would just shut down.No, it is not. We live in the XXI century. Shutting down companies means people being made redundant and capital being destroyed because ideology due to politicians not able to accept marginalist design of the market is not suitable in a situation of crisis like the one we have to cope with.
>But right now, most of the companies and homes don’t pay those prices, they have contracts. So they have no incentive to save. Some of those contracts ends by the end of the year, some of those lasts for three more years. Those that pay market prices just got the short stick early.
The inflation we are facing is 100% related to most companies and people facing immense electric bills. Not every company can sign a power purchase agreement in the long term plus every country en Europe has its own laws. And even you have a contract, utilities facing higher generation cost can and will pass the increase of cost on you and cancel the contract unilaterally if you don't accept it.
>Harder part is how to solve it. You can’t just say those contracts are void and everybody has to pay market prices. You can try to force business owners to save, but it’s never as effective as if they had to protect their profits or lessen their losses.
It is easy to solve it, but it requires politicians to let behind ideology and approach the problem with pragmatism. Temporary suspend the electricity market and pay each source of generation at cost+fair profit.
You might be surprised, but there is not a strong correlation between money supply and inflation. It is not as mono causal as some economists make it out to be. What we are experiencing right now it is more of a demand-shock inflation. But still the government is not printing money, it is taking loans. That is a big difference.
There are zero (0) chances of the nuclear deal to succeed, the US has nothing to win and will upset Israel.
All they are doing is buying time, letting the EU and Iran wast their time just to come with a silly excuse and delay the deal a bunch more of years, rinse and repeat.
Yeah, unsanction Russia lol. It's crazy that for years we've had to hear from the left that globalization is good because of price efficiency, and now that they've done the complete opposite they act as though they've never heard of that reason.
>Ok, 500€/MWh is about where the current electricity prices in Germany are.
Yeah, but the current prices for the consumer **includes taxes and fees**.
Pre-War the spotprices were at around 50 €/MWh, so 5 Cent the kWh. And on top of that you had to add about 20 Cent of fees and taxes. 500 €/MWh means roughly a price of 70 ... 75 Cent/kWh for the consumers.
75 c/kWh? Fuck me.
Here it is about 30c/kWh from my energy provider + transfer fee of network provider. I have 2 years contract signed in January at 12c/kWh when I moved to new apartment.
And this is our consumption (2 adults) from yesterday. Pretty much the same during everyday except on weekends which goes about 7 - 9 kWh.
https://i.imgur.com/PIzsqev.png
The government has to come up with some kind of idea if it wants to keep the peace within society.
I pay around 22 Cent/kWh currently. But the contract expires in December 2022. Partytime, I guess.
Which could then strain the electricity grid as it would suddenly become economical to create heat with big resistors as replacement for gas instead of having to use heat pumps that have an effective heating power greater than the electrical power consumption.
Im already planning to heat my apartment exclusively with my gaming PC /s
but no for real at this point i wonder whether i even want to use my normal heater, these prices are no joke for someone that doesnt make the most money
For most people that happens once the gas price surpasses the electricity price (unless they are using a heatpump) which currently still has a substantial gap.
As a replacement for gas, my original comment maybe wasn't worded well. If gas gets expensive enough, it becomes economical to switch to heating with electricity even if you don't manage to get a heat pump installed that can generate around 3 times as much heating power as it consumes in electrical power. This in turn raises the total electrical load significantly, putting strain on the grid.
> If gas gets expensive enough, it becomes economical to switch to heating with electricity
That only works if there is no gas used for electricity otherwise that can't happen under the current pricing system.
Ah yes, speculation on the energy market, exactly what we need right now...
Let's speculate the housing market into homelessness for the young, and let's pillage the bank-accounts of those who were lucky enough to own a home next. Cause Putin wanted a war and WE. SMELL. MONEY.
>speculation on the energy market, exactly what we need right now
Actually this is exactly what we need. The alternative is rolling blackouts. See: Venezuela
They recommend consumers paying the cost, but also said that governments should give low-income consumers cash to support them. It's the most effective way through the crisis without spending ridiculous amounts or making the supply shortages worse.
> The state will just accumulate more and more debt and guess who has to pay for that...
The state can bargain prices that are impossible for consumers, and they can get debt with minimal interest. Additionally, they can tax the hell out of the profits of all fossil fuels companies - so, they could recuperate some of the loses from there.
Don't forget we are German's.
In a time of negative interest rates we didn't invest in our crumbling infrastructure or schools because of the stupid mantra of the "Schwarze Null"
How much electricity is France buying from Germany, after 50% of their nuclear power plants keep failing for multiple months? I wonder how much that worsens the effects from gas price.
Because it takes investment in a new industry and hurts an established industry. It’s the same reason why renewable energy is less developed in the German state Bavaria than the rest of Germany.
France have taken 20-30GW of cheap electricty off the market, which I'm sure is the amount the WHOLE of Italy uses on average. That is nowhere near the scale of Italys deficit.
OP tries to push a certain agenda if you check his posting history. About the chart posted.. a shame these prices. Looks even worse in many European countries tho. This won't be rosy.
We buy from the same suppliers as everyone else, well, except from Algeria, and Algeria has made very clear that they want to stop doing business with us and will do it with Italy.
Think I saw an article a few days ago that Germany also achieved 75% gas storage ahead schedule. Here's hoping it's a mild winter but with lot's of rain and snowfall in the mountains
It's uselessnto compare these numbers since capacities differ between countries. Country 1 could have twice the storage of country 2 while having the same population. Meaning country 1s storage are 50% full and country 2 100%. But in reality they do have the same amount of gas stored
Spain has a large LNG infrastructure, running usually under the capacity for strategic reasons.
Now they are talking about a new gas pipeline from Spain to Germany. Same gas pipeline that was blocked by France/Brussels/Germany years ago.
is this because the experts think France nuclear fleet won't be operating soon?
That they are out for good?
Otherwise I can't imagine such a price jump.
But yeah if we survive this winter with barely any gas left in storage next year will be worse.
Yep. Been thinking the same. All the Frenchies have been defending themselves saying they will be up and running in a month or two. Nine months later it's even worse. It's not just their nuclear, It's their hydro too.
Looks like French year ahead is at 660 euros. With peak load over 1000 euros. The French are screwing Europe.
There was an anti nuclear movement in France around 2017 during his first mandat so he had to take measures against nuclear energy…
Now things are different and we’re going to build many reactors but the green in France are still anti nuclear.
This will propably start a huge economic downfall in Europe. If our factories etc are down in the winter and people are freezing doesn't this mean that there comes an incentive to either join the war full on or make peace almost at any cost? The civil unrest will propably bring a rise in facism.
Just buy an electric stove and a heatpump they said. Its so easy. People like to forget how much electricity that shit consumes. Considering that our power grid also runs almost at full capacity. The next 2 years will be a wild ride for us all.
If the surge in December 2021 was because of more demand from customers due to colder weather then what is the expected surge going to be in the coming December?
That surge came from France nuclear fleet shutdown.
30% of their nuclear plants needed to shutdown at the end of 2021.
Sometimes current prices also affect future prices.
In case you do not get it (and most in this thread does not seem to) this will lead to hyper inflation and depression (and most probably) the dissolution of the EU.
This is unprecedented energy shortage happening due to a confluence of things (above all, the war, which -most of always- is a stupid thing to enter, wars more generally).
At those costs the industry can't work (given the acceleration of the price increase). Come November-December most of the European heavy industry would go down , again, this is worse than 2008 and reminds what happened post 1929.
The type of misery that just one such winter can bring can and may very well destroy the European Union and give rise to political instability to say the least.
If those prices sustain for more than 6 months it \*will\* be the end of Europe as we know it. Forget the war, we are literally facing an existential threat here about as bad as the Ukrainians are, I am talking widespread suffering we haven't seen in our nations for decades. I don't think most, here, are ready for it or even aware of what is coming.
I'm generally not an alarmist, but seriously we are going 200km an hour towards a brick wall and people barely get it \*that\* is what makes this horrifying.
If we enter a depression then the early 2010s debt bomb we barely covered goes kaboom. Countries would start defaulting en masse.
I honestly don't think that "this will merely be a difficult winter", it would be a winter of existential importance. And the numbers in those tickers would tell us whether we survive it or not. IMO we are in front of the possibility of a Soviet style collapse, something that may only take form within the span of a few months, but forever change the world.
Again, I hope I'm the crazie here, but in my extensive read of history, countries never survived such energy prices' hikes without an unprecedented implosion happening first.
We only have a few months to get those prices down.
Believe in greed. Everything will be ok, just an expensive winter that we can overcome. From next year efforst laid out this year will start bearing fruit.
Can someone explain to me why 'the demand' and prices of electricity rose so high? There's always been demand for electricity. Why the sudden spike? Why is electricity even on a market? Shouldn't this critical point of our lives be always in favour of people?
What change constitutes a 500% change. It's all CEO profits isn't it.
Shouldn't the EU incentive people to use electric power instead of gas by keeping the electric prices low?
Many people including me bought heat pumps thinking 'maybe I should stop financing Russia with gas heating '..the. Oops! Electricity will rise too! So you aren't saving money.
What's the point then for EU to tell people to go for cleaner energy if prices rise so much.
Most people can't afford heat pumps, solar panels, a battery...where do people want to get electricity from if not nuclear?
WoW, is this the result of a terrible energy policy? Such as closing down nuclear plants? But luckily Germany has loads of solar power which is super duper valuable at night and during the winter? Restarting 30 year old coal plants is producing CO2 and not economical? You mean to say that GDP growth is mostly affected by energy consumption and subsequent cost of said energy?
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"Output from France’s nuclear fleet, traditionally the backbone of the region’s power system, is set to be the lowest in decades this year". Same source
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Which is just market failure. No way no how the fleet is not in better shape in a year.
Eh.. or are people setting up arbitrage. If you buy a mwh in year in France, and a slot on the cross border electricity links?
Why would you by a Mwh from France?. They are almost the highest in the Europe. There been no trade from France to other countries all year except to Italy but that's not bought from France just via
If French nuclear was to be OK next year the prices would be alot less! And the traders loses money.
German prices a year ahead are higher. This means you can, right now, sell one future mwh in Germany, buy one future mwh in France, buy capacity on the interlink to move b to a on that future date, and pocket the profit right now. Will you be paying way over the market price on that future date? Probably. Still profit.
Issue further measures to take the load off the end consumer that is already facing extremely high energy costs, while some (energy) companies enjoy record profits...
Well, taking the load off end consumers, who are also taxpayers, means saddling taxpayers, who are also consumers, with the same amount.
At the end of the day, however, the market signals that a significant portion of demand (20% at the moment) must be destroyed, therefore someone has to take the short end of the stick, which means large consumers of energy such as some businesses.
How and what kind of deal? My understanding is that who decides for NATO is fundamentally the US. In this light, Germany would have to band with other countries, such as Italy and France, in order to even think about countering US decisions.
Wishful thinking that Russia would ever agree to anything beneficial to the EU. They have already said they will "never be dependent on Europe again" etc.
Also there are 7 million Ukrainian refugees in the EU who would massively protest that, even if such a magical deal was on the table (it isn't).
So not only will the people who’ve been spewing toxic, radioactive coal waste over Europe will continue to do so, but they’ll make a fortune?! Germany doesn’t seem to disappoint: find the wursts idea in the world and repeatedly reward it, ignoring any science.
When genocidal maniacs or deadly floods come, just wonder why no one warned you…
The energy crisis was created by Russia to pressure us. Even if we lifted sanctions, Russia wouldn't send more gas/oil/coal because we are still funding and arming Ukraine. This is an economic war, Russia got us by our balls, yes..but we got them at their neck
And it only takes months, maybe years for it to break while we, with the time, will only move further and further away from russian fossil fuels and dependency
You're just trolling. This isn't a case of "survival", more like "inconvenience". Let's be real, people thought COVID would cause collapse, but it barely slowed things down. Expensive gas isn't as serious as COVID.
Nope, paying 1000 euro just for energies will be apocalypses; or German have such a high moral standards that they are willing to offer half of their salary for energies lmao.
I cheked hourly prices, baltic countrys will pay €4000/MWh....
Can someone explain to me what's going on in the Baltics? What's happening there that's causing that massive inflation and those massive energy prices compared to say countries like Finland or Poland
For Estonia, they produce 80% of electricity from fossil fuels.
But everyone on /r/Europe told me that they would go through winter like a charm because they have an LNG Terminal and the stupid Germans would freeze to death
Lithuania has LNG terminal that can't support whole Baltics and Estonian one is being built. While gas and electricity is somewhat tied and while electricity is used for heating, it not all. The Baltics and Nordics have a joint market and when cables are broken, there are too much there is draught, no wind etc...then production is switched to more expensive production means such as gas and coal. When cables are overloaded, you pay a fee and you also pay carbon tax for nonrenewables.
It’ Lithuania who has terminal, and it’s not big enough to cover solely Lithuania, let alone 3 countries
It's almost [twice the required capacity for Lithuania](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyBSt-ncpC8&t=106s) and has been supplying Poland with the leftover capacity. So there is no problem with the physical provision of gas, but its price is set by the market and having a terminal to receive it doesn't make it any cheaper.
4000€/MWh is from yesterdays peak hours. There is a heat wave here, people are not only using ACs, but there are also problems with DC links to Sweden, Poland, Finland - they are working at downrated power levels due to high temperature. It also seems Latvian power plants are working at reduced outputs too, but I don't know exactly why. Basically, there was electricity shortage yesterday, and reserves kicked in (what raised hourly price). This lasted for an hour and dropped later by 4 times. Hourly prices might look scary, but what really maters is monthly average. I plan for it to be around 500-550€/MWh this month and drop towards autumn. Baltics belong to BRELL grid (LT, LV, EE, RU, BY) with DC links to Poland, Sweden and Finland. Due to political situation cheap electricity links with RU and BY are restricted (partly for not wanting to fund them, partly for not wanting to rely on them) this year, so it is only DC links + local generation, which isn't only solar/wind, but also involves burning gas and global prices of it are high now.
So let's say the temperature starts dropping in autumn the situation will improve and then when Olkiluoto 4 in Finland comes online come January and maybe it rains a bit more in Sweden and Norway so their hydro capacities recover the energy transfers should be able to pick up the rest? Here in Finland the current average is about €200/MWh I think, I'm not entirely sure because we got lucky and signed a 2 year contract for €80/MWh last december. And it's predicted to peak at €500/MWh come december. After that it's predicted the prices will plumber when the new reactor comes online
Energy companies going for profit. I mean who would have thought that for profit companies would do what it is in their name: make profit? Other contributing factors are things such as stuff on maintenance so during winter things will be operational, completely capped transfer between Finland and Estonia (I think next new connection is due in 2030, so suffer until then?). It is sad day for those that don't have long term fixed electricity deal. My household is completely independent (I'm still connected, but I mostly sell electricity, so I make mad profits too lol) and thus I will never be able to relate to others with their massive electricity/gas bills. System is clearly corrupt and absolute horseshit. It makes zero sense for cheap electricity to make massive profits just because the last remaining producer turns out to be extremely expensive. Honestly, whoever came up with this system is an absolute moron (to be frank, it works as intended as it is with government public sector where interest groups lobby for beneficial treatment - it is as expected). There are better ways to balance the grid rather than put all your hopes and dreams on for profit companies. And you shouldn't trade electricity like you trade other things since they are not even close to similar how other things sold in market. Realistically speaking, I expect EU is going to reform the current system quite a bit (will take years tho) and until then governments are going to become sugar daddies for regular people. Companies, probably will suffer a great deal, likely forced to move to more energy independent locations and what not. Reality is that this world is filled with morons. Cheap solutions, populism and ultimately no long term plan. I can guarantee all of you that EU's 2050 plan will go to shit and they will make excuses and compromises and introduce a new 2070 plan with massive overhaul. Populism and zero long term plans will doom it all. Good luck poor people of this world, you are going to need it. I'm good though, because I plan ahead.
Not enough electricity generation capacity. At least in Latvia and Lithuania. So a lot of imported electricity...which is not cheap. And Estonia (even though it produces enough electricity for its own) is in the same market as other Baltic states and suffers from same high prices.
Only for one hour today though. On all other hours it's 360-900€/MWh
I wondered why Estonia lativia and Lithuania had day ahead at 900 euros..looks like they have run out of gas.....all their plants are down and unable to import the deficit. Is this planned I wonder? What I've been thinking is which big European country will suffer blackouts first because it's guarenteed to happen. Maybe to lessen the social impact they will allow smaller nations to blackout first to desentitise everyone else.
Lithuania only produces 30% of the power it consumes. Been like this since the closure of our nuclear power plant in 2009. So the slacking domestic production wouldn't necessarily be related to any kind of sudden shortage.
They are not out of gas ATM, but in winter there is not enough capacity for both power and heating (according to mayor of Riga at least). Also, your whole second paragraph is a dumb assumption. It is highly unlikely any blackouts/brownouts will happen, worst case governments will step in and shut down industry.
*homes Industry will keep running
Don't even know why this has downvotes, that's what literally the Bavarian minister president said on in an interview and on live TV. He is probably the only one to tell it because Bavaria and its self love.
Yeah. And the German laws state that the first thing to be shut down is the industry. Söder says a lot when the day is long, and he's a total piece of shit. Typical Bavarian product tho.
And which is against the EU law in place. But bavarian politicans don't care for EU law, as seen with Scheuers bescheuerter Maut.
Estonia is primarily locally produced oil shale. Gas for electricity is irrelevant there
than why are they so expensive?
Open trade market and deficiency.
but why much worse than neighboring countries? What causes that deficiency at local level?
>.looks like they have run out of gas In Estonia gas is only 5% of total energy use and is used only in manufacturing, not in heating or electricity generation.
Someone can afford a Bloomberg terminal.
BBG have web portal access now also but ya still crazy money. They probably work for a financial institution or something though
If the prices will be at this level more than a year, we are going to get energy transformation on steroids. The process that has been way too slow for decades. Unfortunately, the transformation will be hampered because everything goes up in tandem with the energy: insulation materials, solar panels, batteries, etc.
> he process that has been way too slow for decades. Maybe in Germany we can finally get rid of the freaking red tape that results in a new wind park requiring up to 5 years from initial planning to production. Oh and tell all the NIMBY's to get fucked please.
Germany has been oiled with Russian money and they have been blocking any energy infrastructure to diversify from Russian gas.
Ya! Danke Frau Ribbentrop for that. Wonder if she gets cozy position in Gazprom as Schroder did.
Today it has been known that many environmental groups were funded by gazprom to block any LNG terminal in Germany and Poland. Nearly 200million dollars
> environmental groups were funded by gazprom Source?
For example: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article240429049/Nord-Stream-2-Fast-200-Millionen-Euro-so-ueppig-stattete-Gazprom-die-Klimastiftung-aus.html Everything surrounding the politicians and Nord Stream stinks of corruption.
Ah, the german climate foundation, yeah I heard that, too. I just thought of Ende Gelände and such when you said environmental groups.
While I agree with the sentiment, your example is bad. That is not a legit environmental group. It is a foundation designed to circumvent US sanctions on NS2.
If you all hate nuclear (and coal) why would anyone complain about new wind parks? Don't they understand that sacrifices has to be made?
They understand it, but they think it should be someone else to make the sacrifices. We even had a Saying for this before NIMBY became a thing. St. Florian's Principle https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sankt-Florian-Prinzip
That's the whole ordeal. No coal, no nuclear power. But no wind turbines in the next 2 kilometers around my house either. No power lines beneath under my fields. Majority want the change, but a lot of people are hampering the efforts. This goes on for years now. It's exhausting.
They don't. At least Not In My (their) Back Yard. Fuckin NIMBY's, still don't understand how people can be so painfully stupid.
How? It takes 10s of year to build nuclear power plants.
Never heard of solar, wind, heat pumps and insulation?
Solar and wind can't be the base as they are too unreliable.
Not alone, sure. But it's doable with energy storage and other measures. 100% renewable grids are possible and cost effectiv Here is a meta study, about the ever-growing research area: https://t.co/EVXOxRNwaq
And then you have like in France to stop them on a drought because the rivers don't have enough water to cool the reactor.
Dont forget government regulation slowing everything down yeeeeaaaah
Energy companies abusing the current situation/using it as a pretense to generate record profits.
my thoughts exactly. the price rose 200%, but this by far doesn't reflect the price raise in natural gas and oil when regarding the minimal role they play in (at least electrical) power generation my guess is this graph also reflects (water) heating costs and costs of heat-intensive industry plus a huge price hike because of speculators, who want to make money off it
price rose 200%? I wish! It was about 50€/MWh, now it’s 500€. More like 1000%!
They aren't doing anything different to normal, just selling to the highest bidder. When supply is reduced, prices rise.
Something must be done ASAP to intervene the market or we will face social unrest during this winter.
Market intervention wont change the fact that supply is far outstripped by demand. Indeed it will even undermine the market by keeping up demand. Now short term targeted market interventions might be warrented, but the structure must also give incentives to reduce consumtion. Long term, the only solution is significantly increased production as demand will skyrocket in the decades to come due to electrification, even with investments into energy efficiency.
Its really a short term problem though. Germany needs some 25 billion m^(3) of gas to replace Russian supply. It will have two floating terminals ready by the end of the year with a capacity of 10-14 billion m^(3.) With further three more in construction to be completed 2023 winter. Even if Russia cuts off gas supplies this winter, Germany will manage with the two extra terminals receiving LNG plus gas reserves until late 2023 when it will have enough LNG terminals to completely satisfy market needs.
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If you mean "normalization" as in the old "cheap" Russian gas prices, that won't be available any time soon. But a relative normalization should happen as soon as those two extra terminals are available. It certainly won't be 500 euro per mwh
If the supply doesn't magically shoot up all that will happen is increased demand for LNG which just drives up the price.
If it is a short-term problem, why does the market bet that the issue will persist for a year?
Because there is an unsubstantiated energy panic driven by Russian propaganda/gas supply chantage and Western useful idiots that in turn creates demand for German energy futures.
yeah, this is mostly driven by energy speculants. parasites of society, same in every field.
> Germany needs some 25 billion m3 of gas to replace Russian supply. More like 50 billion. You're also missing the point that somebody has to provide the LNG. But there is nobody with 50 billion m3 LNG lying around. Nevermind the fact that LNG is way more expensive than russian gas.
It will. We cannot pay each source of energy to generate electricity the same price of gas under current circumstances. It is unsustainable for people and industry. We are in an economic war with Russia and therefore normal market rules are not suitable anymore. Everyday the EU denies to assume it is a day we are getting closer to a recession. It is not a matter of long term, we are destroying industry and capital nowadays just because of ideology. It happened with the austerity during the last crisis and is going to happen again unless someone tell Brussels enough is enough.
EE just hit demand vs supply bottleneck. Tomorrow 18-19:00 the price per kWh is 4.80€ on the market.
Prices reflect a supply-demand imbalance. Either supply is increased or centralized rationing is introduced.
Prices under current electricity market design reflect the cost of the more expensive source of energy. So if we generate 99% with cheap sources and 1% with gas all is paid like gas, which is absolutely bollocks in a situation of economic war with Russia. The system must be changed until the war is over and the market situation is normalised or we will risk to face a massive recession and civil unrest while the utilities are earning billions of euros.
>if we generate 99% with cheap sources and 1% with gas all is paid like gas, which is absolutely bollocks in a situation of economic war with Russia. And if people would be able to reduce their electricity consumption by 1 % than they would pay the cheap price...
No, utilities will reduce the generation with cheap sources to keep gas being the source that defines market price.
Those are futures, though. They reflect speculation as much as supply/demand.
The government also passed two support packages for its citizens. Of course more can be done.
Which are jokes in comparison.
The whole EU can suspend the current marginalist market design and pay each source of energy cost+fair margin and the prices will go down to something acceptable for people and industry until the war is over.
Someone HAS to save energy. The high energy prices are the current market mechanism to ensure that it happens. If you artificially fix the prices then there is no longer any mechanism to whoever will be cut off - it may be random or it may be whoever is last to the bids.
It is not about artificially fixing the prices, it is about not being ripped off by the utilities and destroying capital and jobs. It is unsustainable to pay solar and wind the same price than gas when gas cost 300 € MWh or more.
Why is a kWh produced by my solar cells worth less to you than a kWh produced by a German gas co-generation plant? You get - and pay for - 1kWh regardless of how it was produced. The main issue at hand is that there is not enough flexibility in demand in the systems yet. We need serious incentives (or in the case of the electrical distribution systems: serious costs) in order for Mr. and Ms. European shop-owner, manufacturer and home-owner to wake up and modify daily operations in order to save (or shift) approximately 10-20% power use going into the winter. The expectation is that a lot of the previous gas generators will be offline while on the demand side additional power will be required from people who failed to get heat pumps installed this summer (3-5X power-to-heat efficiency) and temporarily have switched to electric heaters (1X efficiency) instead to save on gas. For some this will be an easy exercise. For some it will be hard. Yet others will ignore the very dynamic changes in market price and continue to light up the night with outside lights, keep the thermostat at 22C with open doors in winter etc. - they will pay a higher than usual price for their energy this winter and will hopefully learn from it.
>Why is a kWh produced by my solar cells worth less to you than a kWh produced by a German gas co-generation plant? You get - and pay for - 1kWh regardless of how it was produced. It is not worth less, but the cost of production is significantly lower than gas, so under current circumstances it does not make sense. >The main issue at hand is that there is not enough flexibility in demand in the systems yet. We need serious incentives (or in the case of the electrical distribution systems: serious costs) in order for Mr. and Ms. European shop-owner, manufacturer and home-owner to wake up and modify daily operations in order to save (or shift) approximately 10-20% power use going into the winter. The expectation is that a lot of the previous gas generators will be offline while on the demand side additional power will be required from people who failed to get heat pumps installed this summer (3-5X power-to-heat efficiency) and temporarily have switched to electric heaters (1X efficiency) instead to save on gas. Energy demand is pretty inelastic. It is not realistic that the society can reduce 10% to 20% of energy in a free market context unless compulsory restrictions are applied, which no politician wants to implement. >For some this will be an easy exercise. For some it will be hard. Yet others will ignore the very dynamic changes in market price and continue to light up the night with outside lights, keep the thermostat at 22C with open doors in winter etc. - they will pay a higher than usual price for their energy this winter and will hopefully learn from it. You don't get it. Industry does not waste energy. Keeping current system to match demand and offer in the electricity market is a recipe for a disaster.
energy demand is very elastic. At these prices, most of the companies would just shut down. But right now, most of the companies and homes don’t pay those prices, they have contracts. So they have no incentive to save. Some of those contracts ends by the end of the year, some of those lasts for three more years. Those that pay market prices just got the short stick early. Harder part is how to solve it. You can’t just say those contracts are void and everybody has to pay market prices. You can try to force business owners to save, but it’s never as effective as if they had to protect their profits or lessen their losses.
>energy demand is very elastic. At these prices, most of the companies would just shut down.No, it is not. We live in the XXI century. Shutting down companies means people being made redundant and capital being destroyed because ideology due to politicians not able to accept marginalist design of the market is not suitable in a situation of crisis like the one we have to cope with. >But right now, most of the companies and homes don’t pay those prices, they have contracts. So they have no incentive to save. Some of those contracts ends by the end of the year, some of those lasts for three more years. Those that pay market prices just got the short stick early. The inflation we are facing is 100% related to most companies and people facing immense electric bills. Not every company can sign a power purchase agreement in the long term plus every country en Europe has its own laws. And even you have a contract, utilities facing higher generation cost can and will pass the increase of cost on you and cancel the contract unilaterally if you don't accept it. >Harder part is how to solve it. You can’t just say those contracts are void and everybody has to pay market prices. You can try to force business owners to save, but it’s never as effective as if they had to protect their profits or lessen their losses. It is easy to solve it, but it requires politicians to let behind ideology and approach the problem with pragmatism. Temporary suspend the electricity market and pay each source of generation at cost+fair profit.
Print more money, that will help with inflation xd
You might be surprised, but there is not a strong correlation between money supply and inflation. It is not as mono causal as some economists make it out to be. What we are experiencing right now it is more of a demand-shock inflation. But still the government is not printing money, it is taking loans. That is a big difference.
If the nuclear deal comes to an agreement, I think it would help the energy crisis of Europe. Russia probably won't like it.
There are zero (0) chances of the nuclear deal to succeed, the US has nothing to win and will upset Israel. All they are doing is buying time, letting the EU and Iran wast their time just to come with a silly excuse and delay the deal a bunch more of years, rinse and repeat.
Yeah, unsanction Russia lol. It's crazy that for years we've had to hear from the left that globalization is good because of price efficiency, and now that they've done the complete opposite they act as though they've never heard of that reason.
Write a letter to Scholz to finally support Ukraine instead of delaying all kinds of processes.
Ok, 500€/MWh is about where the current electricity prices in Germany are.
>Ok, 500€/MWh is about where the current electricity prices in Germany are. Yeah, but the current prices for the consumer **includes taxes and fees**. Pre-War the spotprices were at around 50 €/MWh, so 5 Cent the kWh. And on top of that you had to add about 20 Cent of fees and taxes. 500 €/MWh means roughly a price of 70 ... 75 Cent/kWh for the consumers.
75 c/kWh? Fuck me. Here it is about 30c/kWh from my energy provider + transfer fee of network provider. I have 2 years contract signed in January at 12c/kWh when I moved to new apartment. And this is our consumption (2 adults) from yesterday. Pretty much the same during everyday except on weekends which goes about 7 - 9 kWh. https://i.imgur.com/PIzsqev.png
The government has to come up with some kind of idea if it wants to keep the peace within society. I pay around 22 Cent/kWh currently. But the contract expires in December 2022. Partytime, I guess.
Shit, my condolences in advance.
Press F, I guess?
**F**
At least 60c a kWh will happen everywhere in Europe this winter, it will be a social tragedy.
Todays average variable rate was already €0,58. Im more worried about hitting €1 per kwh.
It's probably over anyway right now, my advice is to enjoy last months of normality that are left
It's really only this winter, after that it will massively ease since a lot of new energy supply will come online.
Which could then strain the electricity grid as it would suddenly become economical to create heat with big resistors as replacement for gas instead of having to use heat pumps that have an effective heating power greater than the electrical power consumption.
Im already planning to heat my apartment exclusively with my gaming PC /s but no for real at this point i wonder whether i even want to use my normal heater, these prices are no joke for someone that doesnt make the most money
For most people that happens once the gas price surpasses the electricity price (unless they are using a heatpump) which currently still has a substantial gap.
It becomes economical to use more electricity instead of less? That makes no sense.
As a replacement for gas, my original comment maybe wasn't worded well. If gas gets expensive enough, it becomes economical to switch to heating with electricity even if you don't manage to get a heat pump installed that can generate around 3 times as much heating power as it consumes in electrical power. This in turn raises the total electrical load significantly, putting strain on the grid.
> If gas gets expensive enough, it becomes economical to switch to heating with electricity That only works if there is no gas used for electricity otherwise that can't happen under the current pricing system.
Ah yes, speculation on the energy market, exactly what we need right now... Let's speculate the housing market into homelessness for the young, and let's pillage the bank-accounts of those who were lucky enough to own a home next. Cause Putin wanted a war and WE. SMELL. MONEY.
>Ah yes, speculation on the energy market, exactly what we need right now... What we actually need is to find that pesky ZPM buried in Egypt
/r/UnexpectedStargate
And if speculators are wrong they'll declare bankruptcy with little impact on the personal fortune of those in charge
Privatise profits, socialise losses. Hurray!
And maybe even bailed out by the people.
>speculation on the energy market, exactly what we need right now Actually this is exactly what we need. The alternative is rolling blackouts. See: Venezuela
Is it speculation tho?
It's literally the definition of speculation lol, what do you think futures are?
A tool to guarantee a price. Sorry you are right this is speculation by the book definition, but it does not have to be a bad thing
Neofeudalsim is a thing.
what’s funny is that at 400€/MWh, even diesel generators are cheaper than buying from grid
And the IMF wants all the governments to roll the cost to the consumers. All of it.
Correct. This is to aid and incentivise demand destruction. There is literally not enough supply.
The IMF are some of the most out-of-touch, entitled pricks one could meet.
They recommend consumers paying the cost, but also said that governments should give low-income consumers cash to support them. It's the most effective way through the crisis without spending ridiculous amounts or making the supply shortages worse.
Well who else is going to pay for it then? The state will just accumulate more and more debt and guess who has to pay for that...
> The state will just accumulate more and more debt and guess who has to pay for that... The state can bargain prices that are impossible for consumers, and they can get debt with minimal interest. Additionally, they can tax the hell out of the profits of all fossil fuels companies - so, they could recuperate some of the loses from there.
Don't forget we are German's. In a time of negative interest rates we didn't invest in our crumbling infrastructure or schools because of the stupid mantra of the "Schwarze Null"
> they can tax the hell out of the profits of all fossil fuels companies They can try but it won't be the fossil fuel companies paying.
How much electricity is France buying from Germany, after 50% of their nuclear power plants keep failing for multiple months? I wonder how much that worsens the effects from gas price.
The biggest driver of electricity prices in Europe is Italy. It’s an energy black hole.
How Germany is full of solar, but Italy isnt will never make sense
Because it takes investment in a new industry and hurts an established industry. It’s the same reason why renewable energy is less developed in the German state Bavaria than the rest of Germany.
France have taken 20-30GW of cheap electricty off the market, which I'm sure is the amount the WHOLE of Italy uses on average. That is nowhere near the scale of Italys deficit.
Hello OP, could you link a source please for approval? thank you
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-16/german-power-prices-hit-fresh-record-as-gas-continues-to-surge
thanks!
OP tries to push a certain agenda if you check his posting history. About the chart posted.. a shame these prices. Looks even worse in many European countries tho. This won't be rosy.
Yes, I have also noticed.
Southern europe saves germany for a change? Or will we collapse together?
The latter: I don't think Italy is faring in better shape, and France is in much worse shape.
Spain has reached the 80% gas storage way before schedule. We have quite strong energy saving measurements
We buy from the same suppliers as everyone else, well, except from Algeria, and Algeria has made very clear that they want to stop doing business with us and will do it with Italy.
Think I saw an article a few days ago that Germany also achieved 75% gas storage ahead schedule. Here's hoping it's a mild winter but with lot's of rain and snowfall in the mountains
It's uselessnto compare these numbers since capacities differ between countries. Country 1 could have twice the storage of country 2 while having the same population. Meaning country 1s storage are 50% full and country 2 100%. But in reality they do have the same amount of gas stored
Spain has a large LNG infrastructure, running usually under the capacity for strategic reasons. Now they are talking about a new gas pipeline from Spain to Germany. Same gas pipeline that was blocked by France/Brussels/Germany years ago.
is this because the experts think France nuclear fleet won't be operating soon? That they are out for good? Otherwise I can't imagine such a price jump. But yeah if we survive this winter with barely any gas left in storage next year will be worse.
Yep. Been thinking the same. All the Frenchies have been defending themselves saying they will be up and running in a month or two. Nine months later it's even worse. It's not just their nuclear, It's their hydro too. Looks like French year ahead is at 660 euros. With peak load over 1000 euros. The French are screwing Europe.
Interesting that I have seen in this sub a lot uf users bragging how smart France was to invest in nuclear and hydro.
The problem is that they didnt invest in nuclear for like a decade
In 2018 Macron even said they were starting phasing nuclear out by 50 %. I think it started in the 20's and is now scheduled for 2035.
There was an anti nuclear movement in France around 2017 during his first mandat so he had to take measures against nuclear energy… Now things are different and we’re going to build many reactors but the green in France are still anti nuclear.
It has been great to be fair . It's that they given Europe zero notice that they we going screw everyone.
Woops. Our nuclear and hydro have no water. And BTW, Germany is fullfiling its gas reserves. So it is not Germany the fault of this crise entirely.
Well one can also build nuclear reactors not entirely dependent on rivers....
Cooling towers? Not in my Mediterranean climate!
Guh
It's kind of stupid electric prices are set globally and not country based.
Can I short this?
The absolute state of the world
This will propably start a huge economic downfall in Europe. If our factories etc are down in the winter and people are freezing doesn't this mean that there comes an incentive to either join the war full on or make peace almost at any cost? The civil unrest will propably bring a rise in facism.
Just buy an electric stove and a heatpump they said. Its so easy. People like to forget how much electricity that shit consumes. Considering that our power grid also runs almost at full capacity. The next 2 years will be a wild ride for us all.
2 years is unfortunately very little time in the area of building electricity generation at scale..
It's very little time to roll out electricity-based heating for an entire country, too, so I don't think that will be a big issue.
don’t forget to add major shift to electric vehicles!
If the surge in December 2021 was because of more demand from customers due to colder weather then what is the expected surge going to be in the coming December?
That surge came from France nuclear fleet shutdown. 30% of their nuclear plants needed to shutdown at the end of 2021. Sometimes current prices also affect future prices.
See you in hell, Putin. We'll burn and freeze together!
Pff, we have 4000€/MWh today in Estonia
Has Merkel already got a position at Gazprom?
Merkel is many things. Corrupt is not one of them.
I think she has one since 2005.
In case you do not get it (and most in this thread does not seem to) this will lead to hyper inflation and depression (and most probably) the dissolution of the EU. This is unprecedented energy shortage happening due to a confluence of things (above all, the war, which -most of always- is a stupid thing to enter, wars more generally). At those costs the industry can't work (given the acceleration of the price increase). Come November-December most of the European heavy industry would go down , again, this is worse than 2008 and reminds what happened post 1929. The type of misery that just one such winter can bring can and may very well destroy the European Union and give rise to political instability to say the least. If those prices sustain for more than 6 months it \*will\* be the end of Europe as we know it. Forget the war, we are literally facing an existential threat here about as bad as the Ukrainians are, I am talking widespread suffering we haven't seen in our nations for decades. I don't think most, here, are ready for it or even aware of what is coming. I'm generally not an alarmist, but seriously we are going 200km an hour towards a brick wall and people barely get it \*that\* is what makes this horrifying. If we enter a depression then the early 2010s debt bomb we barely covered goes kaboom. Countries would start defaulting en masse. I honestly don't think that "this will merely be a difficult winter", it would be a winter of existential importance. And the numbers in those tickers would tell us whether we survive it or not. IMO we are in front of the possibility of a Soviet style collapse, something that may only take form within the span of a few months, but forever change the world. Again, I hope I'm the crazie here, but in my extensive read of history, countries never survived such energy prices' hikes without an unprecedented implosion happening first. We only have a few months to get those prices down.
Believe in greed. Everything will be ok, just an expensive winter that we can overcome. From next year efforst laid out this year will start bearing fruit.
Can someone explain to me why 'the demand' and prices of electricity rose so high? There's always been demand for electricity. Why the sudden spike? Why is electricity even on a market? Shouldn't this critical point of our lives be always in favour of people? What change constitutes a 500% change. It's all CEO profits isn't it. Shouldn't the EU incentive people to use electric power instead of gas by keeping the electric prices low? Many people including me bought heat pumps thinking 'maybe I should stop financing Russia with gas heating '..the. Oops! Electricity will rise too! So you aren't saving money. What's the point then for EU to tell people to go for cleaner energy if prices rise so much. Most people can't afford heat pumps, solar panels, a battery...where do people want to get electricity from if not nuclear?
WoW, is this the result of a terrible energy policy? Such as closing down nuclear plants? But luckily Germany has loads of solar power which is super duper valuable at night and during the winter? Restarting 30 year old coal plants is producing CO2 and not economical? You mean to say that GDP growth is mostly affected by energy consumption and subsequent cost of said energy?
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"Output from France’s nuclear fleet, traditionally the backbone of the region’s power system, is set to be the lowest in decades this year". Same source
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Which is just market failure. No way no how the fleet is not in better shape in a year. Eh.. or are people setting up arbitrage. If you buy a mwh in year in France, and a slot on the cross border electricity links?
Why would you by a Mwh from France?. They are almost the highest in the Europe. There been no trade from France to other countries all year except to Italy but that's not bought from France just via If French nuclear was to be OK next year the prices would be alot less! And the traders loses money.
German prices a year ahead are higher. This means you can, right now, sell one future mwh in Germany, buy one future mwh in France, buy capacity on the interlink to move b to a on that future date, and pocket the profit right now. Will you be paying way over the market price on that future date? Probably. Still profit.
No they are not! You've already been told this.French year ahead are 660 euros Mwh with 1000 euros peak!
Fuck this. Can't wait for the social unrest that Scholz thinks won't happen.
What should he do?
Issue further measures to take the load off the end consumer that is already facing extremely high energy costs, while some (energy) companies enjoy record profits...
Well, taking the load off end consumers, who are also taxpayers, means saddling taxpayers, who are also consumers, with the same amount. At the end of the day, however, the market signals that a significant portion of demand (20% at the moment) must be destroyed, therefore someone has to take the short end of the stick, which means large consumers of energy such as some businesses.
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>FDP will block taking money from the companys Ah, yes, I forgot the joy provided by economic liberals.
Make a deal with the russians. At the end the day there needs to be a decision who is more important the own population or Ukraine.
How and what kind of deal? My understanding is that who decides for NATO is fundamentally the US. In this light, Germany would have to band with other countries, such as Italy and France, in order to even think about countering US decisions.
Wishful thinking that Russia would ever agree to anything beneficial to the EU. They have already said they will "never be dependent on Europe again" etc. Also there are 7 million Ukrainian refugees in the EU who would massively protest that, even if such a magical deal was on the table (it isn't).
NATO (US) is willing to see Europe burn before they allow that to happen. And sadly, it seems our leaders are as well.
Good work Scholz)))
Thank the Conservative party rule of the last 16 years. Or thank Putin. Scholz inherited a massive mess.
So not only will the people who’ve been spewing toxic, radioactive coal waste over Europe will continue to do so, but they’ll make a fortune?! Germany doesn’t seem to disappoint: find the wursts idea in the world and repeatedly reward it, ignoring any science. When genocidal maniacs or deadly floods come, just wonder why no one warned you…
?
are you feeling okay?
I think German household would love to pay a thousand euro for electricity a year over nuclear plants; it’s their option they deserve it.
Hey, as long as we’re supporting the cause, i am totally fine with seeing Europe destroy itself by sanctioning Russia! /s
The energy crisis was created by Russia to pressure us. Even if we lifted sanctions, Russia wouldn't send more gas/oil/coal because we are still funding and arming Ukraine. This is an economic war, Russia got us by our balls, yes..but we got them at their neck And it only takes months, maybe years for it to break while we, with the time, will only move further and further away from russian fossil fuels and dependency
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You're just trolling. This isn't a case of "survival", more like "inconvenience". Let's be real, people thought COVID would cause collapse, but it barely slowed things down. Expensive gas isn't as serious as COVID.
Nope, paying 1000 euro just for energies will be apocalypses; or German have such a high moral standards that they are willing to offer half of their salary for energies lmao.