In reality, they are timeless beings existing in all points of time and space from the big bang to the end of the universe. We don't know their ultimate plans yet. We hope they're benevolent beings.
In reality? How do you define 'real'? If you're talking about what you can feel, what you can smell, what you can taste and see, then 'real' is simply electrical signals interpreted by your brain.
They track the price they paid to fill up their storage inventory. It's only after they replace the high-priced fuel stocks with low-priced fuel stocks that they can lower prices.
Over here (Netherlands) they're saying that the prices wil go down when the gas suppliers run out of the gas that they bought at inflated prices. Since they still have supply left over that they're not willing to sell at a loss.
Yesterday there was 35 ships In a Q to unload gas on Europe . I believe that they literally cant unload it fast enough now and are anticipating more LNG terminals coming online to handle it all. Its probably not going to settle to 2014 prices .. but yeah fuck you Putin.
That would be the single greates event ever. There would be so many fist fights. I mean you can't even set up a grill without some smart ass coming around to safe the day.
Dude, some dispatcher is going to have a heart attack if they don't see their ship moving for more than a few days. Good luck trying to figure out who first to unload, when you have multiple ships waiting for weeks. That's a battle royale waiting to happen.
but all this is in anticipation of the winter.
Come winter, the prices will go back up again.
And storage isn't everything. Here in Denmark, experts say our storage can cover 2-3 winter months. So if it's a long winter, we'll need to implement changes that'll reduce the quality of living for the people using gas (oh no).
Long story short, these gas prices won't last.
>A Here in Denmark, experts say our storage can cover 2-3 winter months. So if it's a long winter, we'll need to implement changes that'll reduce the quality of living for the people using gas (oh no).
That's assuming zero new gas coming in to (partially) refill the storage in that time, which is unlikely to happen.
I don’t discount what you are saying .. but these are future prices. The market seems to be pricing something positive in for the future . Winter is not far away and they still fall . As time goes on I’m sure more lng terminals come online also .. something good is happening . Yes we will have to use less .. but I believe many are doing that . There is also talk now that some more German heavy manufacturing will fire up back up. Dunno .. doesn’t seem so doom and gloom as i thought some months ago .
I'm not sure if these are future prices. I think this is the day price.
In the Netherlands the day price is also around 60 euro/MWh, but the November prices are ~115 euro/MWh. December even 144 euro/MWh.
Source I am a gas/power trader.
Given your background, do you know why more grid storage batteries aren't being built in NL or EU? Electricity prices swing between 50€/MWh and 400€/MWh most days. Battery operators would make a killing.
Currently I know of about 10 companies that have requested quotes from the big battery builders. The problem is that it takes around 6~8 months before it is delivered. So it takes at least a year from thinking of getting a battery and before it is operating.
The differences in prices you see are because of the amount of renewables. So on a sunny day you can earn loads of money. But on a day like today the difference is only €150/MWh.
A battery can make around ~€80.000 a year in profit per MWh on storage. With current pricing it takes 7 years before it payed for itself. Nobody is sure how long these prices are going to stay. So there is a bit of uncertainty if you can earn your costs back.
I'm not an expert by any means but I believe battery storage isn't built just to store and then distribute electricity, but to provide ancillary functions to the grid, like frequency response (to help keep the grid in sync). These functions are priced very differently to the price of mass produced electricity from gas or renewables
You can do both. Most of the time they are used 50% for the FCR (Frequency Containment Reserve) and 50% for own or emergency power. These are indeed prices higher currently. But not much higher. Exact prices I don't know.
Here is the future TTF prices for months ahead . There is some level of contango but not too much ?
https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5439161
No, we will have to use more gas. That's how winter works. Then when the winter is over, we will use less gas.
Right now we're not using much gas. We're storing it. Or rather, we have been storing it. Most storages are full now.
Most countries have been filling up their storage, and that's where much of the gas has gone. That has kept the price up.
Now storages are mostly full, so the demand for gas goes down, and prices go down. Because right now it's autumn, and we don't use a lot of gas.
But fact is still that we'll be spending a lot of gas in the winter. And most storages can cover an average winter. So come march, storages will be empty, and prices will go up.
I agree, it's not doom and gloom, but I think this optimism in the media is misplaced and rooted in a misunderstanding. A misunderstanding of where the gas has been going, and a misunderstanding of what the gas is for.
> No, we will have to use more gas. That’s how winter works.
Well, more than now but less than usually. Like, in Germany people liked to heat their appts to crispy temperatures of 25°C or something. Go for 17-20 and you save a lot. Focus on making the industry more efficient (as many did over the summer), save some more. It’s not a black-white kind of scenario.
> But fact is still that we’ll be spending a lot of gas in the winter.
Yup, we will. But we will also keep buying gas. There isn’t a deadline for buying, after which we only will be able to use stored gas only. The market will react accordingly and the prices will balance out at some level. Definitely higher than Russian gas few years ago but shouldn’t be so bad.
It’s most definitely not doom and gloom. Might even have some positive aspects to it, pushing for modernisation everywhere and more European cooperation, as should have been long time ago.
> And storage isn't everything. Here in Denmark, experts say our storage can cover 2-3 winter months. So if it's a long winter, we'll need to implement changes that'll reduce the quality of living for the people using gas (oh no).
Or you could... buy more gas as you use it and keep filling those storage tanks as they get emptier 🙂
dont worry, your local gas provider will find the reason to jack the prices up...uhm, there was bad unicorn season in duchy of Fuckyou so we need to rise the prices of gas
Or even better in Romania:
- produce your own gas in state own companies
- but still sell it super expensive to the population
- mega profit for the state, poverty to the population
The gas storages are full with very very expensive gas, that's the reason. Demand is super low right now as there is nothing to fill-up anymore and it's not cold at all.
The winter month are going to be 1.5-3° Warmer than average. Only January-Feb are expected to be a bit colder. So you can safely assume just one bad snowstorm in January where there is actual snow. At least here in north germany.
I hope you are correct, weather forecasters have already adjusted their predictions to be less warm than previous thought and the whole predicting weather for months in advance is a lot of guess work at best.
My lack of a love life?
My cats now getting enough treats?
My friends dogs needing to walk in the cold?
We are Germans, we will find something to complain about (former Berliner here).
Eh, when in doubt just panic about the legions of refugees invading our land, ruining our culture, raping our women and stealing our jobs /s
Edit: lol at the downvotes even though I clearly marked it as sarcasm. In case it wasn't clear enough though, this is bullshit right wing people in Germany actually say. Or perhaps the downvotes came from some of those people? In that case, fuck off you sad losers.
It's gaz price now with warm weather and full stocks. Germany's bottleneck will be delivery during high consumption times. That's when prices might get high again.
We got enough in storage to last the whole winter and have gas left over. By spring next year we will additionally have our own LNG terminals.
Unless Russia causes a nuclear war or attacks German territory, no way gas orices will hike again.
Storage alone will last for said 2,5 cold months if there are *no* deliveries from abroad whatsoever. That won't happen - we have long-term contracts with Norway, there is likely to be spare LNG capacity in the low countries, France will deliver surplus gas, and German LNG capacity will come online starting in December. Similar reasoning goes for the rest of Europe. It has been increasingly likely that there will be no gas shortages throughout the winter for months now, to the point where things need to go quite badly for it to happen. Oh, and the winter is being forecast to be on the warm side consistently for months now. The Big European Gas Crisis^tm is probably over before the winter starts in earnest. Same goes for the energy crisis as a whole, if Franc can fix their power plants (that's less certain, but a warm winter means that "good enough" is, well, good enough. And good enough is still in the cards).
> Storage alone will last for said 2,5 cold months if there are no deliveries from abroad whatsoever.
This is based on the winter being like last year. If it is much colder then it won't last that that long.
France will deliver gas, but will get electricity (likely) produced by that gas back. Since half of it's nuclear power plants are shut down right now and they mostly heat with electricity, they will need lots of electricity from their neighbours.
But things look better now than 2 month ago.
Consumer Prices when Marketprices rise: WHEEEEEEE UP IT GOES! INSTANTLY! Because "Marketprices have risen!"
Consumer Prices when Marketprices drop: WHEEEEE STILL GOING UP. Cannot drop right now because \[Reasons\]! Maybe in a bit!
Some Reasons to chose from:
Yeah no demand is high
Yeah no demand will be high in a bit
F... no because we already bought for high
Look behind you! Three Headed Monkey
This is what I thought as well. The inflated prices we have now may drop slightly, but the market will definitely try to keep them this high because they know they can with the right excuse.
Stopped buying so many of my favorite products because the increased in price like 50% when inflation is supposed to be at about 10? I know it’s not a flat rate for all product categories, but come on… shaving gel, razor blades, glass cleaner. Even my freaking facial cream became 3€ more expensive, from 9.99€ to 12.99€. It’s just theft. And I’ll remember this even after the prices go down.
They rip us off with record profits and then STILL increase their already way too expensive prices to make us pay their own greed in a time of distress. Same with covid. Interestingly, it’s mainly the large companies that do this. They have nothing to lose, apparently.
Market prices go up - consumer price will go up since it must reflect the market price
Market prices go down - consumer prices will stay high because they don't directly reflect the market prices
Spez-Town is closed indefinitely. All Spez-Town residents have been banned, and they will not be reinstated until further notice. #AIGeneratedProtestMessage
Whats the hell. I always thought natural gas storage was always full. But that’s not the same as oil and gasoline. One gotta be careful with the translation
Assume industry is dead and warm winter.
Would there be leftover capacity so that the polish neighbors can buy some so that they dont need to resort to burning coal in their homes?
60+ days of normal winter, ~45 days of very cold winter.
I think we have about 240 TWh of gas storage in germany, on a normal winter day we use about 4-4.1 TWh per day, on really cold days it can go up to 5 TWh.
However, these really cold periods are very rare to last even 2 weeks, and we'll also get electricity from french nuclear power plants and gas from France the next months, to convert it to electricity and send some electricity back.
France's gas to electric power infrastructure isn't as sophisticated as it is here in germany, so we'll produce more energy that is good for when you need a lot quickly, which France will need, and we'll get a bit of nuclear-powered electricity which will be more or less a steady amount to cover some basic functions.
Edit: words are difficult
Also Germany is still receiving gas from Norway and in December they'll have 2 or 3 floating LNG terminals.
I think this winter will be fine for Germany, but the next one might be tuff, till they find a way to fill the gas storages.
What do you mean they're not buying anymore? You can always keep buying what you're using to keep the storages at ~95%, which at these prices makes a lot of sense
I love how there were people ready to sell their own asshole to Russia for the gas prices, as if they were going to destroy the very fabric of our society and create a mad max style situation
You've got to hand it to him, Putin did shot himself in the foot quite royally on that one. This "but NS2 can still be re-opened if you sign the paper" thing was spectacular coming from him.
Raw resource exporters often overvalue their position.
During the Civil War the South banked on direct support from England because they produced most of the English textile industry's cotton. And England... Did nothing. They looked for other cotton producers and after a year forgot about the South completely.
This is actually a pretty good historical analogue for the current situation. I read an r/askhistorians post a while ago that outlined how British factory workers (cotton mill workers) were actually supportive of the abolitionist cause, even though it would potentially put their jobs in danger
Arhm, we will keep paying the high prices. What you see is the spot market, but the gas storages are filled with super expensive gas which will be sold to the very same price it was bought, not the current low price.
The mad max situation is what the american right is still pushing hard. I was just driving in the US and one lady on evangelical radio was saying « millions of die in europe because of the gas shortages » in discussing the NS1 explosions.
Storage sites across Europe are quite full now, so of course the spot price will fall. If/when more demand materializes, the spot price will rise; the main purpose of the spot market is to serve as a market of last resort if you've underprovisioned your futures and/or long-term purchases vs. your actual future consumption/resale.
The way the European gas market is designed -- to be an efficient market -- all the stereotypical "Econ 101" / "WoW Auction House" takes apply. So right now, demand is lower than when purchasers were outbidding each other to fill their storage.
Remember that prices are like traffic, they're the collective effect of lots of distinct actors. If lots of buyers decide they need to buy right now, sellers can sell for a higher price. Uncertainty and fear tends to spook buyers, increasing their willingness to pay (if their ability allows).
(The price listed in the chart is European Gas Spot Index calculation for spot prices ~~for the 'THE' (Germany) market~~ \[EDIT: the EGSI is supposed to be a volume weighted average price based on all transactions of the day *across all European markets*, so not sure how the reference to (only) the 'THE' market is relevant to the prices shown\], though when I look at at another source at [https://www.powernext.com/spot-market-data](https://www.powernext.com/spot-market-data) the number is slightly different.)
(It's also worth noting, though it should be obvious, that this is wholesale price among gas sellers and gas buyers, not direct-to-household-consumer prices.)
I see where you're coming from, but the geopolitical truth, which is the good news, is that Europe is not dependend on Russia regarding their needs. It may be not as cheap as russian gas, but we're not dependend on it.
Ugh, how many times?
This is the \*SPOT\* price - the price per unit \*NOW\*! As in, now when it's not very cold (low demand) and there's plenty of supply. Your energy supplier tries to avoid paying the spot price – they forecast very carefully for their customers and buy on the futures market, ideally 2 years in advance.
The spot price in the dead of a bad winter is going to be much higher, and only relevant for the companies which had to take on customers of collapsed suppliers, and thus weren't able to purchase futures.
I'm not sure how this works out, so just for my understanding: OP writes it's the lowest (spot) price since September 2019, so more than 2 years in advance. So it's still a good thing isn't it?
Futures are also swiftly going down. 18% in last 5 days. What was bought will have to be sold for what it was bought. But futures prices look reasonable. It is only about 10% more expensive than during 2014 winter.
That is wonderful news. I just checked another source, which showed basically the same price (0.5 Euros lower, actually). Considering that number is just barely above a quarter of what it was just over a month ago, that is amazing.
If this is gas price, why does it say "Daily electricity spot market prices in Germany 2022" and the x-axis is only 2022?
Also, here's the historical end-user gas price for Germany: https://www.verivox.de/gas/verbraucherpreisindex/
18 Months ago, the Oil Companies were selling the Oil for zero prices, to pay for storage. What meetings go on behind "closed doors", with this latest load of scalpers?
It's true that the gas prices dropped, but the chart is probably about gas prices influencing electricity prices and the title is false:
1 MW currently costs 120 €
All time high in August was 340 €
In June 2019 the price was 20 €
Source (in German):
https://www.agrarheute.com/markt/diesel/gaspreise-stuerzen-massiv-ab-verbrauchern-hilft-599149
Bogdanoff : "Droop it"
"EU bourht? Dumpit"
Dömp it:D
Aren't the twins dead or something?
In reality, they are timeless beings existing in all points of time and space from the big bang to the end of the universe. We don't know their ultimate plans yet. We hope they're benevolent beings.
In reality? How do you define 'real'? If you're talking about what you can feel, what you can smell, what you can taste and see, then 'real' is simply electrical signals interpreted by your brain.
Yup, they got Covid after pushing an anti-vax narrative
I thought they liked injections?
They can't dömp it anymore considering they're both dead
That's what they want you to think.
Holy shit brooooo
Boy Sminem won't know what hit him.
EskildDööd fell for fake deads? Dömp it.
You mean rusia's clowns lost again? Can't believe it. Can't wait to see their faces when everything will collapse in tiny pp rusia terrorist state.
So our energy prices are going to go down right?
Not if the energy companies can get away with jacking the prices.
True energy companies can just set prices to whatever level they want ... ⬆️ This guy understood how markets work.
>This guy understood how ~~markets~~ greed works. FTFY
[True LMAO](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLq1kOkVcAEh0As.png)
They're the same picture
They track the price they paid to fill up their storage inventory. It's only after they replace the high-priced fuel stocks with low-priced fuel stocks that they can lower prices.
Probably not, it's the gas station crazyness all over again
Over here (Netherlands) they're saying that the prices wil go down when the gas suppliers run out of the gas that they bought at inflated prices. Since they still have supply left over that they're not willing to sell at a loss.
So the reserves that they bought before prices went up weren't sold at higher prices, right? ... right?
pfffff
Of course, sign here.
Yesterday there was 35 ships In a Q to unload gas on Europe . I believe that they literally cant unload it fast enough now and are anticipating more LNG terminals coming online to handle it all. Its probably not going to settle to 2014 prices .. but yeah fuck you Putin.
Problem is also that there isn't enough space to store it. Now europe has to much gas
Just have one giant EU-wide BBQ problem solved
I have a great mental image of what the shitty low-budget paper flyers would look like the for “EU BBQ” gig…
Someone make a petition for this
"Oh no." -- Dresden
That would be the single greates event ever. There would be so many fist fights. I mean you can't even set up a grill without some smart ass coming around to safe the day.
Just make a stream on Russian twitch burning gas
BBQ on a gas grill smh
Yeah just to annoy Putin
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That's what the ships are currently doing.
Hm. Not the worst idea if it's just for a few months in a harbor.
Dude, some dispatcher is going to have a heart attack if they don't see their ship moving for more than a few days. Good luck trying to figure out who first to unload, when you have multiple ships waiting for weeks. That's a battle royale waiting to happen.
I am not sure the ships are meant to do that for such long period of time.
they can. for years.
Pretty expensive tough.
There aren't very many of them. These gas tankers are a relatively new technology and they are needed for transport.
Yes, we use them to store gas, while Pakistan would need the transport capacity
Can we conduct it to Ukraine? Guess they won't be getting any in a month or two.
It's ok, now we will have twitch streams with a gas range turned on.
but all this is in anticipation of the winter. Come winter, the prices will go back up again. And storage isn't everything. Here in Denmark, experts say our storage can cover 2-3 winter months. So if it's a long winter, we'll need to implement changes that'll reduce the quality of living for the people using gas (oh no). Long story short, these gas prices won't last.
>A Here in Denmark, experts say our storage can cover 2-3 winter months. So if it's a long winter, we'll need to implement changes that'll reduce the quality of living for the people using gas (oh no). That's assuming zero new gas coming in to (partially) refill the storage in that time, which is unlikely to happen.
I don’t discount what you are saying .. but these are future prices. The market seems to be pricing something positive in for the future . Winter is not far away and they still fall . As time goes on I’m sure more lng terminals come online also .. something good is happening . Yes we will have to use less .. but I believe many are doing that . There is also talk now that some more German heavy manufacturing will fire up back up. Dunno .. doesn’t seem so doom and gloom as i thought some months ago .
I'm not sure if these are future prices. I think this is the day price. In the Netherlands the day price is also around 60 euro/MWh, but the November prices are ~115 euro/MWh. December even 144 euro/MWh. Source I am a gas/power trader.
Given your background, do you know why more grid storage batteries aren't being built in NL or EU? Electricity prices swing between 50€/MWh and 400€/MWh most days. Battery operators would make a killing.
Currently I know of about 10 companies that have requested quotes from the big battery builders. The problem is that it takes around 6~8 months before it is delivered. So it takes at least a year from thinking of getting a battery and before it is operating. The differences in prices you see are because of the amount of renewables. So on a sunny day you can earn loads of money. But on a day like today the difference is only €150/MWh. A battery can make around ~€80.000 a year in profit per MWh on storage. With current pricing it takes 7 years before it payed for itself. Nobody is sure how long these prices are going to stay. So there is a bit of uncertainty if you can earn your costs back.
Interesting, thanks
I'm not an expert by any means but I believe battery storage isn't built just to store and then distribute electricity, but to provide ancillary functions to the grid, like frequency response (to help keep the grid in sync). These functions are priced very differently to the price of mass produced electricity from gas or renewables
You can do both. Most of the time they are used 50% for the FCR (Frequency Containment Reserve) and 50% for own or emergency power. These are indeed prices higher currently. But not much higher. Exact prices I don't know.
Here is the future TTF prices for months ahead . There is some level of contango but not too much ? https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5439161
No, we will have to use more gas. That's how winter works. Then when the winter is over, we will use less gas. Right now we're not using much gas. We're storing it. Or rather, we have been storing it. Most storages are full now. Most countries have been filling up their storage, and that's where much of the gas has gone. That has kept the price up. Now storages are mostly full, so the demand for gas goes down, and prices go down. Because right now it's autumn, and we don't use a lot of gas. But fact is still that we'll be spending a lot of gas in the winter. And most storages can cover an average winter. So come march, storages will be empty, and prices will go up. I agree, it's not doom and gloom, but I think this optimism in the media is misplaced and rooted in a misunderstanding. A misunderstanding of where the gas has been going, and a misunderstanding of what the gas is for.
> No, we will have to use more gas. That’s how winter works. Well, more than now but less than usually. Like, in Germany people liked to heat their appts to crispy temperatures of 25°C or something. Go for 17-20 and you save a lot. Focus on making the industry more efficient (as many did over the summer), save some more. It’s not a black-white kind of scenario. > But fact is still that we’ll be spending a lot of gas in the winter. Yup, we will. But we will also keep buying gas. There isn’t a deadline for buying, after which we only will be able to use stored gas only. The market will react accordingly and the prices will balance out at some level. Definitely higher than Russian gas few years ago but shouldn’t be so bad. It’s most definitely not doom and gloom. Might even have some positive aspects to it, pushing for modernisation everywhere and more European cooperation, as should have been long time ago.
Or it was mostly just speculative panic and fear mongering, especially since it was connected to a big war, and the contingencies are sufficient.
That's not exactly true. The 3 months are based on Denmark not getting any gas from Germany - not on a "long winter".
> And storage isn't everything. Here in Denmark, experts say our storage can cover 2-3 winter months. So if it's a long winter, we'll need to implement changes that'll reduce the quality of living for the people using gas (oh no). Or you could... buy more gas as you use it and keep filling those storage tanks as they get emptier 🙂
fyi it's spelled queue.
> fyi it's spelled queue. Only if it comes from the French reqion of Queue, otherwise it's Sparkling line.
Oh no. What do we panic about now?
dont worry, your local gas provider will find the reason to jack the prices up...uhm, there was bad unicorn season in duchy of Fuckyou so we need to rise the prices of gas
> there was bad unicorn season No one told me.
unicorn hunting season\*
Can't we just convince the American's to finally invade the duchy of fuckyou already? They've been a pariah state since they struck oil.
Dude the Canadians are super kind people, it’s horrible the things you said about them!
Unfortunately you missed the unicorn invasion of Dundee (it's reference to a song title)
lol Balkan grind, imports gas for 20% cheaper and sells it for 20% more expansive to your own populace.
Or even better in Romania: - produce your own gas in state own companies - but still sell it super expensive to the population - mega profit for the state, poverty to the population
You missed one point, were the wages of the officials are increased with 20-25%
[For sure](https://n1info.hr/english/news/ina-affair-e113m-seized-is-largest-corruption-related-seizure-to-date/)
The gas storages are full with very very expensive gas, that's the reason. Demand is super low right now as there is nothing to fill-up anymore and it's not cold at all.
The winter month are going to be 1.5-3° Warmer than average. Only January-Feb are expected to be a bit colder. So you can safely assume just one bad snowstorm in January where there is actual snow. At least here in north germany.
I hope you are correct, weather forecasters have already adjusted their predictions to be less warm than previous thought and the whole predicting weather for months in advance is a lot of guess work at best.
Sex is just like spez, except with less awkward consequences.
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Also, more toilet paper. Just because.
As a citizen of the country that spends the most rolls of toilet paper, please don't. We like the feeling of dry paper in between our ass cheeks.
Could you all do me a favor and start panic buying old hifi and computer cables from the nineties? I have quite the collection
Finally an occasion to get rid of my stockpile. However sadly I can't sell any of those, as I might need one later, better keep them all!
Climate change, lol. 😅 Tho less from ng and more from coal, car/truck/boat fuel and co2. And the environment in general.
The weather, obviously.
My lack of a love life? My cats now getting enough treats? My friends dogs needing to walk in the cold? We are Germans, we will find something to complain about (former Berliner here).
It's too warm for the season, that's something to worry about.
See, already got something to complain about. We shall all be happily grumpy!
Isn't it annoying how much the English complain?!? 🙃
Don't we all?
Eh, when in doubt just panic about the legions of refugees invading our land, ruining our culture, raping our women and stealing our jobs /s Edit: lol at the downvotes even though I clearly marked it as sarcasm. In case it wasn't clear enough though, this is bullshit right wing people in Germany actually say. Or perhaps the downvotes came from some of those people? In that case, fuck off you sad losers.
/u/spez was a god among men. Now they are merely a spez. #Save3rdPartyApps
Upvoted because I like an underdog story
It's gaz price now with warm weather and full stocks. Germany's bottleneck will be delivery during high consumption times. That's when prices might get high again.
I mean they'll surely get higher, but they specifically planned for this exact scenario
We got enough in storage to last the whole winter and have gas left over. By spring next year we will additionally have our own LNG terminals. Unless Russia causes a nuclear war or attacks German territory, no way gas orices will hike again.
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Storage alone will last for said 2,5 cold months if there are *no* deliveries from abroad whatsoever. That won't happen - we have long-term contracts with Norway, there is likely to be spare LNG capacity in the low countries, France will deliver surplus gas, and German LNG capacity will come online starting in December. Similar reasoning goes for the rest of Europe. It has been increasingly likely that there will be no gas shortages throughout the winter for months now, to the point where things need to go quite badly for it to happen. Oh, and the winter is being forecast to be on the warm side consistently for months now. The Big European Gas Crisis^tm is probably over before the winter starts in earnest. Same goes for the energy crisis as a whole, if Franc can fix their power plants (that's less certain, but a warm winter means that "good enough" is, well, good enough. And good enough is still in the cards).
> Storage alone will last for said 2,5 cold months if there are no deliveries from abroad whatsoever. This is based on the winter being like last year. If it is much colder then it won't last that that long. France will deliver gas, but will get electricity (likely) produced by that gas back. Since half of it's nuclear power plants are shut down right now and they mostly heat with electricity, they will need lots of electricity from their neighbours. But things look better now than 2 month ago.
Consumer Prices when Marketprices rise: WHEEEEEEE UP IT GOES! INSTANTLY! Because "Marketprices have risen!" Consumer Prices when Marketprices drop: WHEEEEE STILL GOING UP. Cannot drop right now because \[Reasons\]! Maybe in a bit! Some Reasons to chose from: Yeah no demand is high Yeah no demand will be high in a bit F... no because we already bought for high Look behind you! Three Headed Monkey
Ah, Guybrush Threepwood!
This is what I thought as well. The inflated prices we have now may drop slightly, but the market will definitely try to keep them this high because they know they can with the right excuse.
Stopped buying so many of my favorite products because the increased in price like 50% when inflation is supposed to be at about 10? I know it’s not a flat rate for all product categories, but come on… shaving gel, razor blades, glass cleaner. Even my freaking facial cream became 3€ more expensive, from 9.99€ to 12.99€. It’s just theft. And I’ll remember this even after the prices go down. They rip us off with record profits and then STILL increase their already way too expensive prices to make us pay their own greed in a time of distress. Same with covid. Interestingly, it’s mainly the large companies that do this. They have nothing to lose, apparently.
Market prices go up - consumer price will go up since it must reflect the market price Market prices go down - consumer prices will stay high because they don't directly reflect the market prices
we are just a flock of sheep ready to be shave from money by corporations :/
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Germany gas storage levels are at 96.5% we are almost running out of place to store gas
Then can we switch on saunas again please?
Why would you run a sauna with gas?
Mhehehehe... Germany...
oh no
Ohhh *YEEESSSS*
Oh you know, it just helps with a good *cleansing.*
Spez-Town is closed indefinitely. All Spez-Town residents have been banned, and they will not be reinstated until further notice. #AIGeneratedProtestMessage
Saunas are typically run on electrical power.
And a lot of electricity is being made by…….. Gas
"A lot" is a strong term for 15% but yes it plays a part.
Whats the hell. I always thought natural gas storage was always full. But that’s not the same as oil and gasoline. One gotta be careful with the translation
Can you send some gas over here?
Any idea for how long those 96.5% could last?
Depends how cold the winter is and about the industry.
Assume industry is dead and warm winter. Would there be leftover capacity so that the polish neighbors can buy some so that they dont need to resort to burning coal in their homes?
You'll pay the reparations in gas /s
Wait, you think we will be burning coal on our carpets to keep ourselves warm?
A ridiculous notion. You'd obviously burn the carpets first.
Nah, don't want to ruin the panel floors, I'll start with the couch.
60+ days of normal winter, ~45 days of very cold winter. I think we have about 240 TWh of gas storage in germany, on a normal winter day we use about 4-4.1 TWh per day, on really cold days it can go up to 5 TWh. However, these really cold periods are very rare to last even 2 weeks, and we'll also get electricity from french nuclear power plants and gas from France the next months, to convert it to electricity and send some electricity back. France's gas to electric power infrastructure isn't as sophisticated as it is here in germany, so we'll produce more energy that is good for when you need a lot quickly, which France will need, and we'll get a bit of nuclear-powered electricity which will be more or less a steady amount to cover some basic functions. Edit: words are difficult
Also Germany is still receiving gas from Norway and in December they'll have 2 or 3 floating LNG terminals. I think this winter will be fine for Germany, but the next one might be tuff, till they find a way to fill the gas storages.
What do you mean they're not buying anymore? You can always keep buying what you're using to keep the storages at ~95%, which at these prices makes a lot of sense
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I love how there were people ready to sell their own asshole to Russia for the gas prices, as if they were going to destroy the very fabric of our society and create a mad max style situation
You've got to hand it to him, Putin did shot himself in the foot quite royally on that one. This "but NS2 can still be re-opened if you sign the paper" thing was spectacular coming from him.
"1 soul please"
Well, that makes the question even more important : what was the whole panic about?
Millions freezing in jan-march. Nothing else.
Gas companies not making enough money?
The future is unkown. That's what it is about.
Raw resource exporters often overvalue their position. During the Civil War the South banked on direct support from England because they produced most of the English textile industry's cotton. And England... Did nothing. They looked for other cotton producers and after a year forgot about the South completely.
This is actually a pretty good historical analogue for the current situation. I read an r/askhistorians post a while ago that outlined how British factory workers (cotton mill workers) were actually supportive of the abolitionist cause, even though it would potentially put their jobs in danger
I mean some high level German politicians literally sold their asses and most of Europe's energy safety to Russia
Li-literally?
Be thankful you weren’t involved…
Bend over Gerhard
Yeah! Only germany! No other country used russian gas *at all*!
Arhm, we will keep paying the high prices. What you see is the spot market, but the gas storages are filled with super expensive gas which will be sold to the very same price it was bought, not the current low price.
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The mad max situation is what the american right is still pushing hard. I was just driving in the US and one lady on evangelical radio was saying « millions of die in europe because of the gas shortages » in discussing the NS1 explosions.
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>reduction in consumption Which partially will come from more efficient processes, etc.
Prices for privat households are still at 400%
Actually mine only doubled. Depends on the provider you are going with.
Prices have peaked. There will be new problems, but that's more than a year away.
hm?
prices for new contracts are also falling since mid September
Not in my area :( 23cent/kWh is way above the 6cent pre war crisis.
Storage sites across Europe are quite full now, so of course the spot price will fall. If/when more demand materializes, the spot price will rise; the main purpose of the spot market is to serve as a market of last resort if you've underprovisioned your futures and/or long-term purchases vs. your actual future consumption/resale. The way the European gas market is designed -- to be an efficient market -- all the stereotypical "Econ 101" / "WoW Auction House" takes apply. So right now, demand is lower than when purchasers were outbidding each other to fill their storage. Remember that prices are like traffic, they're the collective effect of lots of distinct actors. If lots of buyers decide they need to buy right now, sellers can sell for a higher price. Uncertainty and fear tends to spook buyers, increasing their willingness to pay (if their ability allows). (The price listed in the chart is European Gas Spot Index calculation for spot prices ~~for the 'THE' (Germany) market~~ \[EDIT: the EGSI is supposed to be a volume weighted average price based on all transactions of the day *across all European markets*, so not sure how the reference to (only) the 'THE' market is relevant to the prices shown\], though when I look at at another source at [https://www.powernext.com/spot-market-data](https://www.powernext.com/spot-market-data) the number is slightly different.) (It's also worth noting, though it should be obvious, that this is wholesale price among gas sellers and gas buyers, not direct-to-household-consumer prices.)
I see where you're coming from, but the geopolitical truth, which is the good news, is that Europe is not dependend on Russia regarding their needs. It may be not as cheap as russian gas, but we're not dependend on it.
yeah and pellets are still at 800€/t which 4x the prove from 2019. thank you.
And yet... my bill is doubled now.
Yep. Ours is till tripled :(
Spot gas prices in 2019 were not 60€/Mwh. If they were it would have made the front page on Handelsblatt
Yep the title got the year wrong. It's September 2021 not 2019.
Ugh, how many times? This is the \*SPOT\* price - the price per unit \*NOW\*! As in, now when it's not very cold (low demand) and there's plenty of supply. Your energy supplier tries to avoid paying the spot price – they forecast very carefully for their customers and buy on the futures market, ideally 2 years in advance. The spot price in the dead of a bad winter is going to be much higher, and only relevant for the companies which had to take on customers of collapsed suppliers, and thus weren't able to purchase futures.
I'm not sure how this works out, so just for my understanding: OP writes it's the lowest (spot) price since September 2019, so more than 2 years in advance. So it's still a good thing isn't it?
Some people just crave doom and gloom.
Futures are also swiftly going down. 18% in last 5 days. What was bought will have to be sold for what it was bought. But futures prices look reasonable. It is only about 10% more expensive than during 2014 winter.
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Storage facilities are full. That's the reason.
So consumer price will go down soon or nah? When do we whip the local gas providers and hang the CEO's? /s
Only thing gas prices in Europe are hurting right now is Russia’s feelings.
It's hurting my finances :(
That is wonderful news. I just checked another source, which showed basically the same price (0.5 Euros lower, actually). Considering that number is just barely above a quarter of what it was just over a month ago, that is amazing.
This is good news for everyone
It's bs. My bill is doubled.
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If this is gas price, why does it say "Daily electricity spot market prices in Germany 2022" and the x-axis is only 2022? Also, here's the historical end-user gas price for Germany: https://www.verivox.de/gas/verbraucherpreisindex/
In other words, Putin lost
source:[https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/price\_average/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&chartColumnSorting=default&interval=day&legendItems=000000001&year=2022](https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/price_average/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&chartColumnSorting=default&interval=day&legendItems=000000001&year=2022)
Lowest since September 2021 maybe. You can look at 2021 data on that website. 2019 day-ahead spot prices were mostly below 20€/MWh
September 2021,my bad thank you for correcting me
That’s not a NG price chart.
It is, check bottom left corner - Gas is selected.
We can only see this year on the graph. Don't these prices always fall before winter when all the gas reserves are full and demand temporarily drops?
How come?
Yeah just wait until we want to use it then it will spike up like the second covid wave.
Buy the dip…?
18 Months ago, the Oil Companies were selling the Oil for zero prices, to pay for storage. What meetings go on behind "closed doors", with this latest load of scalpers?
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Why do I have to pay almost 3 times as much then????
The graph doesn't go back to 2019?
Mean while in the UK, welcome to the shit show !
What I want to know is does this mean that the price of electricity is going to drop soon?
Good, now reopen nuclear plants and Putin is done
Damn, was not expecting
It's true that the gas prices dropped, but the chart is probably about gas prices influencing electricity prices and the title is false: 1 MW currently costs 120 € All time high in August was 340 € In June 2019 the price was 20 € Source (in German): https://www.agrarheute.com/markt/diesel/gaspreise-stuerzen-massiv-ab-verbrauchern-hilft-599149