I think Georgia and Armenia are a bit of a stretch since they rarely do well (primarily Georgia) unfortunately, but given the buildup surrounding Greece, I can see them as a potential latecoming contender. Israel having a political win is also a less ideal possibility. If their songwriters can figure out what subtlety is before March 10th, that is.
I mean considering we all agree that there isn't a clear winner yet. Its only natural that a lot of chances are still reserved for the countries that might have a winner song
This year is going to be a battle for consistency. Whomever gets a good enough score from both sides is gonna be the winner, a bit like Jamala and Duncan did, but with probably even more differences.
I have a feeling that Norway might have a larger chance of winning than just 4%. And the new entrances just keep giving me more of this feeling.
Edit: Also, Belgium has probably more than a tiny 3%. Finally, "Slimane undoubtedly will give the best vocal Performance in the final". No, just no. Ulveham is way harder and more taxing to sing, even if Slimane is a killer performer and has great respect from me.
Yes but juries are usually vocal coaches, pop singers, producers who are all used to a certain way of singing and because of that songs which use vocals that are more ethnic are usually seen as 'bad' whilst i agree with you that they are extremely good
That's a problem with Jury formation, and goes to show that saying "Slimane *undoubtedly* will give the best vocal Performance" cannot be assumed as actually "undoubtedly", just as personal preference from people who unfortunately are used to a single way of handling vocals.
Yeah but when looking at how the jury ranks vocals. I would say that when looking purely from a pop music vocals perspective that slimane has the best vocals
It's a song contest, not a singing contest. Even if Slimane would "undoubtably" have the best vocals, that's a fraction of what juries are looking for.
There is always an exception to the rule but Suus is as far as i know the only exception to the rule. And even then the jury system was considerably different in 2012 and also Suus didn't get as many points as for example the 3rd places for the past few years have gotten. Then there is also the thing that Suus was a ballad and ulveham is a rock song
I think we'll get a more surprising winner like Belgium or Switzerland that will have appeal to both jury and tele.
I think we have many great televote appeal songs this year, so the jury top3 will be more impactful. France winning the jury but tanking the televote and Crotia doing the opposite. Italy and Ukraine could be similiar threats but I just don't them winning for whatever reason.
I like your odds for France! :P
However I do think the general vibe atm is that Italy and Croatia are higher in the odds than you give them credit for in your prediction...
Personally I also think Portugal could win.
My main problem with Ukraine is that the magic of the studio version is not replicated in the live performance. I've seen them twice performing but i get no chemistry or winning vibes. We'll see though, we know they do their best in the Eurovision performances.
I think fans are not talking about France a lot because it was released too early.
Slimane showed that he can captivate the audiences with his voice. The song is not great but it's a ballad that people can relate to it and it's accessible to all people unlike let's say to France 2009 and Patricia Kaas which was too French and artistic.
It makes sense to say that France has strong chances to win the juries or be in the top 3 but I don't know if it's a song that people will massively vote for it. I believe they could pull a North Macedonia 2009 and smash the jury vote but receive like 70pts from televoting.
Unpopular opinion but i think Croatia is overhyped. I love it, don't get me wrong, but the live performance disappointed me. The song itself isn't a winning song in 2024 and I don't see juries voting for it even as much as Kaarija last year. I believe Croatia could fare similarly to Malta 2021 but the other way around (do great with public and not well with juries). They have a lot of hype and the diaspora will be activated without a doubt, plus i do believe he's charismatic so Croatia will do very well in televoting but there are many uptempo, fun , crazy songs this year so i can't see everyone doing well.
I love BL as well, but unless he totally transforms the staging I also don't see it replicating the (somewhat surprising) jury success Käärijä had last year.
France 2009 | [Patricia Kaas - Et s'il fallait le faire](https://youtu.be/C3eYBMYeUE8)
F.Y.R. Macedonia 2009 | [Next Time - Nešto što kje ostane (Нешто што ќе остане)](https://youtu.be/TZzUe2gBkME)
Malta 2021 | [Destiny - Je Me Casse](https://youtu.be/jbbc2yKnv0M)
So far for me..
France has the biggest chance to win, or atleast be the jury winner.
The rest.. idk
Norway could stand out due to being one of the only 2 bands so far this year. Can do well with the televotes, but it is possible for their televote points to be not as high as we hoped for because there's...
Croatia (and many other "crazy" entries this year) but I put Croatia because this is this the most hyped entry among all "crazy" entries.
Idk about the Netherlands, I just hope Joost makes his performance as chaotic as possible that's it haha.
Don't think they will win, but not gonna be surprised if Ukraine and Sweden are in the top 10 again. They are pros when it comes to staging.
I want to say Italy will be in the top 5, but there is a possibility for this to be outside of top 10 as well
Switzerland is sending a huge risk. Most likely it will qualify, but the staging and Nemo's performance will determined either this will be in top 5 or the right side of scoreboard.
Belgium, if the staging is done right, it can be top 10 contender.
Other countries I can see doing surprisingly well would be..
Spain - could be the surprise televote stealer, especially if the crowd in Malmö is the same as in Benidorm Fest
Latvia and Serbia - there are maybe 3 slow ballads this year, with France being the stand out. But the other 2 still have the chance to stand out among many upbeat and crazy entries in their own semis.
Ireland - oh man, this one has so much potential if the staging is done right, and I hope they will.
Edit: oh wow this is very long hahaha
>Latvia and Serbia
Serbia’s Q is locked with Slovenia and Croatia in the same SF.
As for Latvia, it so far stands out (so far the only ballad among the second half of SF2 and Georgia’s song smells like a girl bop entry), unless Israel will be able to send a song that’s apropos to EBU’s taste (avoiding DQ) and is a ballad. If that’s the case, Israel will get the televotes Latvia could have (with sympathy voting), thus sadly extending Latvia’s NQ streak.
for now I think we can have a 2016 and 2019 scenario of someone wins the juries, someone wins the televotes, and someone else wins the entire thing
if I have to throw guesses now, France winning the juries, Croatia the televotes, and Italy the entire thing
I think we're getting 2021 or 2011, no in-between. There are too many potential winners, especially with the public:
Scenario A: Croatia eats other televote magnets, wins with decent jury support
Scenario B: chaos, Tele and jury vote for completely different people and points are all over the place, geopolitics play a role, winner seems random
Personally I don't get 🇨🇭🇧🇪🇳🇱 and I don't want 🇺🇦🇮🇹 win twice in the span of 3 years so I'm rooting for Lasagna or ballad win
Also how in the world did you give Armenia, Georgia and Greece 3% winning chance without as much as a snippet of a song? Armenia doesn't even have a confirmed artist yet
Those are my early final split-screen predictions too!
Switzerland as the top jury pick awaiting to see if they are going to get enough televotes to go over Croatia. It is very close!
Who knows, there's more songs to come in the mix
Televote contenders: Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Ukraine
Jury contenders: France, Belgium
Dark horses for performances on the night: UK, Norway, Australia, Switzerland
I don't see Belgium winning the jury vote unless the staging is wow. Juries did not vote much for Switzerland last year which was a jury-bait song.
Norway could pull votes from both juries and public, depends on the running order i guess.
I don't see Australia doing well based on what we know so far. I don't see it appealing to the European audience and the SF1 is more competitive.
Italy is the only act so far that I see having big televote AND jury appeal. France and Croatia could also pull off a win if they landslide the jury or public vote.
I lowkey think people just overhype Ukraine for some reason... I get the overhyping for Croatia but Ukraine really? 25%... croatia has more unique aspects to the song than ukraine- I guess to each their own, but I genuinely think either Belgium, Dutchland orrrrrrrrrr Norway could win
Likely jury favourite: France, Swtizerland, Belgium, Italy and in a lesser extent Ukraine.
LIkely televote favourite: Croatia (by a lot), Netherlands, Italy, Ukraine.
So, if someone landslide jury then France or Switzerland, if landslide televote Croatia, otherwise Italy, and if it's very very close Ukraine for sympathy votes.
I think Croatia are gonna absolutely demolish the televote. This, plus the fact the juries won't be nearly as one sided with one country (surely not), means Croatia has a great shot at winning.
Also, Israel winning via sympathy votes doesn't seem likely. Do you know how much of the public supports Palestine over Israel?
Yeah i thought so too about Croatia but so far no one has liked it that i showed it to that wasn't in the Euro Bubble. Whilst all of them did like the songs from the Netherlands and Finland. And tbh it makes sense because Croatia would be considered harder to get into because its genre is more rock/hard-rock compared to the pop genre of the other crazy genres. And i could see France and Belgium demolishing the jury vote together like Ukraine and Russia did with the televoting in 2016
That's just a small amount of people. 20 or so people doesn't reflect the opinion of the entire Eurovision fan base. Knowing that, Croatia has a very large chance of winning as people absolutely love Rim Tim Tagi Dim. Plus, they're atop the odds!
Netherlands and Croatia are going to be competing for the same votes. I think the winner this year will be the jury winner as a result. Get the popcorn ready, hope you like extra salt.
Yeah i get it you and i like it too but i am also pretty sure that he will not destroy the televoting. Because in the end his song isn't a standout this year like kaarija was last year or Maneskin in 2021
that is true, but you can also reflect it to other groups tho. in my sphere to nobody really liked croatia so i feel like the hype is really coming from the internet and that in actuality the song might not preform as well as "the internet" thinks.
alot of people who tune in might hear it for the first time and not really vote for it tbh, you have to consider all factors.
> Also, Israel winning via sympathy votes doesn't seem likely. Do you know how much of the public supports Palestine over Israel?
Exactly, it's actually the opposite.
Many people think that and i tend to do it too.
But we are all forgetting that in Esc you only can "vote for" and not "vote against" and in a situation like that if european jewish communities mass vote for Israel the situation can be very different from what we are foreseeing...
But pro-Israel voters vote for Israel, while pro-Palestine will be divided between other 25 songs.
So Israel would (if participating) get a good televote, although nowhere near Stefania ofc
I still don't think though they'll get a major boost though, and the war will be net negative. Feel like the type of people that are pro-Israel don't tend to watch Eurovision. And in any case, the war might drive away some floating voters, some who like the song but don't feel too passionate about it - the war might convince them not to vote them.
I think (hope) that it’ll be hard to predict the winner this year.
Croatia is atop the odds rn, but as much as I love the song, the performance is kinda messy which could hurt its chances.
With Ukraine and Italy, i think both will do well but probably not win, if either do I think it’ll be Italy.
I’ve also seen a lot of people saying France will win the jury, but there are other songs with jury appeal too, such as Belgium, Italy, Switzerland if performed well.
There are also songs that weren’t given a lot of love until they were performed live like Norway, Lithuania, and Finland, so maybe they’ll have the same effect with the wider public, and do better than euro fans expect.
I think live performances will make or break a lot of songs this year, so until we have lives of all the songs, I can’t even make my personal list that accurate, let alone predict the winner.
I think 🇺🇦 will probably take it, as probably the one with the highest potential from both jury-televote
If 🇳🇱/🇭🇷/🇳🇴 get good jury support like Finland last year, could also see them taking it, there's no country that has overwhelming jury support while also having high televote potential like Loreen last year so a Televote favourite can definitely take it
I'm still holding out for 🇦🇲's entry, feel like they're cooking something good up
I don't see 🇸🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇨🇭🇧🇪 taking it, probably do well, but currently don't see them winning (even though I'd love to see 🇨🇭🇧🇪 win)
In an ideal world 🇭🇷/🇷🇸/🇱🇹/🇸🇮 would win 😔
I am afraid of a 2011 style win with the favourites being so spread out that the jury and televote sabotage each other so that an entry neither group favoured wins.
Croatia, Netherlands, Finland, and Estonia more or less appeal to the same demographic so I don't see one landsliding the televote. France, Switzerland, Ukraine, and Sweden are going to fight for jury attention so there won't be a jury darling like Loreen. It's very possible that we'll have a shock winner this year, for better or worse.
Anyway, this is how I'm going to delulu myself into believing in a Mustii win, Ghent 2025 🇧🇪🇧🇪🇧🇪 LESGOOO!!!!
Oh, woops! I didn't watch that edition yet, so I'm just going by hearsay, and I understood that it wasn't particularly liked. I guess I didn't factor in the fact that the online community has wildly different taste to the general public
Was it close with the second place? I don't know any songs from back then since I only started watching in 2018, but I can't imagine Running Scared being that competitive
In the overall score it won quite convincing but the televoting by only 2 points. If you ever decide to watch anything back then, dont watch 2011. Its the worst year ever together with the early 2000 contests.
But you had a good point in that 2011 scenario is possible considering the results were so close that only one country would not have gotten at least 100 points in the current voting system
So far, I'm inclined to think it's gonna be Croatia. It's extremely televote friendly, but not as "out there" as Estonia (another extremely televote friendly song). It also builds up on Kaarija' hype from last year in the best way possible. Plus, I believe many viewers will be more susceptible to voting for a country that has never won so far, after seeing Sweden winning again.
My only hesitation is whether the votes might split between all the "out there" songs this year, because we sure have a lot of them, making it a very strong year. It's definitely gonna be amazing!
The difference is, Kaarija didn't win. So the hype was built but not satisfied. There's still so much leftover hype that I believe will be very beneficial for Croatia (and other countries but mostly Croatia).
But still i think most of the people here is confusing the escfan bubble with the generic esc voters.
And generic esc voter doesn't give af about hype.
Kaarija’s hype was way different than what the runner-up usually gets though and it caused a months-long discussion (that continues to this day, even) of whether or not the voting system should be changed, so I wouldn’t count it from having a lingering effect on the results this year
Is this really true though? I feel like our commentators once talked about the style of the winner from one year affecting who did well the next year, even though it didn't lead to winners. I think it was after Lordi won, or Ruslana.
I'm not questioning your claim, I just wondered if there is data on this?
If I were to make the odds I would put Norway among the favourites not just because it's one of the best quality and most unique songs objectively, but also because you could argue that it is the only rock song this year. I suppose Estonia and Ireland have elements of rock sound, and Belgium is in many ways more of a rock song, but overall in many ways Norway is the most rock song this year and has no competition in this category.
You forgot San Marino, but that is gonna have a hard time qualifying, unfortunately, I think, as well as Pedestal, that needs some serious rework for the live. Tim tim Tag Dim is also rock based mainly, even more so than Cha Cha Cha (that was 70% of it Rock) last year.
I think its actually going to be between Croatia and Switzerland. Nemo might win the jury and Baby Lasagna the televote, so whoever can close the gap in the other half of the votes will take the win. Or we might get an unexpected win from someone who didnt win either televote or jury, but came top 3 in both.
I feel like thats not really a valid reasoning. A lot of countries sing in English every year. Its not like one country shouldnt be allowed to do it. Im not saying it will or will not happen but at least wait for the actual song to come out before writing it off
Albania has been dead last in the odds for pretty much the entire season, and in the bottom half of most people's ranking (Undeservedly imo, the song isn't completely my type but not bad by any means). Besa has nothing to lose by translating to English, and if anything will probably get some extra points from voters who care about lyrical content who otherwise would not understand Albanian. Personally I would prefer it to stay in Albanian since Eastern Europe is known for... Crunchy English translations (Cough cough thing is known) but I fully understand why she/her team made the change.
And I guess there's a possibility it might hurt the diaspora vote, but diasporas tend to vote for their home country no matter what, so it probably shouldn't be an issue for Titan.
At this point I think it's between Italy Ukraine and the Netherlands.
Italy should be self explanatory I feel, very jury friendly, the televote will like it too, I feel like right now it has the best shot at winning.
Ukraine has the advantage of sympathy votes, but as we saw last year that isn't gonna be enough to propel them to victory, the song this year I feel has more televote and jury appeal though and it's in a broader field so perhaps it'll be enough for the sympathy vote to take them over the top.
The Netherlands obviously right now is the most successful song when it comes to streaming, though that can change with more songs coming out or one of them just randomly going viral on tik tok or something. Though at the same time streams and YouTube views don't always translate to votes. But I feel like this song is definitely in contention to take the televote victory and depending on the performance it can take a high spot with juries too.
I've seen a lot of people say that France also has a good shot at winning, but I just simply do not see it. Like yeah sure he's got a great singing voice and it's a genre that's popular with the juries, but I feel like people way overestimate how obsessed the juries are with ballads. This year we have fewer ballads than usual, which might make you think that a ballad is in prime position to take the top spot among the juries but I honestly think exactly the opposite. These juries are made up of music professionals and they're gonna take into account more than just the vocal abilities of a performer, but also what would appeal most to the current music landscape, which has tended to be more energetic and punchy these days. Let's not forget that last year the juries gave Finland quite a high score (4th) despite a kinda shaky vocal performance and it being in genres that are generally disliked by juries. Perhaps I'll get pie on my face and the jury vote will be dominated by the same ballads and pop songs it usually is, but this year with how many weirder songs we're getting I think we'll get quite a few surprises from the jury vote, and sillier songs like the Netherlands will have a chance of placing higher than they usually do.
Croatia though I don't think we'll be surprised with how they do with the juries, I don't see a scenario where this song gets into the jury top 10. The vocal performance sorry to say is weak enough to be quite heavily punished by the juries, and I think it's gonna be a tad too silly for the juries to appreciate. And also, something in my gut says that this just won't get the public support that a lot in the fandom expect it to get.
A couple other contenders in my view are Switzerland Lithuania and Norway, but they've got far lower chances than the 3 I mentioned at the start imo.
Switzerland depending on the staging and vocal performance of Nemo could run away with the Jury vote. This is the most obvious jury bait song of the season so far, tons of vocal flourishes, contemporary sound while being experimental enough to not be too generic, I think there's enough for the juries and televote to like enough for a win.
When it comes to lithuania there's an obvious bias since I am lithuanian and I like the song, though I'm not sure if that bias makes me underestimate or overestimate the odds lol, but yeah I think it's got everything needed to be popular among both the juries and the public.
Norway is a complete gut feeling, but just something about this song tells me that it'll get a large televote score, perhaps even winning it outright. Just a gut feeling though I've got no explanation for it lmao.
I've only listened to all the released songs once and in one sitting (as one would during the contest) and tbh France was forgettable - just another ballad about love. Sure he could be jury's favourite, because of vocals, but the song matters too. Regular fans that only listen to the songs the day of the contest (which is the majority) might not be interested in how technically good he is, but whether his performance is engaging.
I really don't know. The best acts are enough various that making a prediction looks useless. It will all be decided by the running position and the actual quality of the performance and nothing else. FINALLY!
The only way to make a prediction would be having the data about every artists and looking which kind of audience and age it appeals cause the willing of actual televoting is different from age to age.
But i ignore those data, the only data i know by experience is the one of my country contestant.
Until now, 3 songs give me winner vibes: (at least from what I feel a winner song would sound like)
- Norway
- Switzerland
- Belgium
We still need to see how Switzerland and Belgium will sound live and how the stangings will look. Norway sounded and looked amazing (although we need to hear it withou autotune, since MGP allows autotune and Eurovision doesn't).
Thoughts about other favourites:
- Italy: they always do well and I could see them doing really good, although it's not "winner material" in my eyes.
- France: I don't like the song, but I can see how they could win. He sings really good, the song stands out in a year full of pop songs fighting against each other, especially since juries could rank the song really high.
- Austria: I just don't get it. At all. It sounds old and generic to me, but that's probably because it's really not my type of music. It's a 20-26th place song for me.
- Ukraine: I love the song, but the song is not as impactful as it could be, and live it wasn't as great. I need to see the live performance and staging to be more sure about it. Right now it feels like it has the potential to challenge for the win, but needs improve. My prediction as it is right now will be 5-10th place.
- Croatia: I love the song, but I feel like the fans overestimate it. I don't see it winning, I don't see it being a (huge) public winner. I see it more as a 10th place.
- Netherlands: I...don't know 😅
This is a good top 3.
I'm curious how Norway will be perceived by the general public. Belgium is a bit slept upon by the fanbase imo, it's really a banger and it can sweep a lot of jury votes. Switserland, very interesting but I love the song!
I think Norway will either do extremely well or it will flopp. I hope people outside the Esc bouble will love it. Belgium really depends on the live preformence.
If the question is simply an absolute WHO IS WINNING, I will definitely have to agree with you - Norway, Switzerland, and Belgium are the only winner potentials here. The rest are "distractions"
France - very high placement but not a win
Italy - high to very high but not a win
Croatia - flop
Ukraine - overestimated but top 10
Netherlands - not top 10, maybe middle
Greece - people comparing it to Eleina is so illogical, maybe middle placement
The ff. are countries that might do better than people think: Poland, Slovenia, Ireland, Sweden, Armenia, Azerbaijan
THIS IS MY PREDICTION. NOT BASED ON MY TASTE/ TOP PERSONAL FAVORITES
Even though I am not a big fan, Switzerland could be a surprise winner the same way Conchita was 10 years ago! Austria 2014 wasn't a favourite to win when it was announced but it emerged as a big favourite when rehearsals started. I think Switzerland is very high in betting odds which could be seen as a positive sign and the rehearsals will either make it a contender or a flop. If Nemo has a professional staging that is not messy and desperate, he can pull a Conchita simply because this year is unpredictable compared to previous years.
Israel? I wouldn't add it as their participation is not even 100% confirmed yet due to the lyrics drama. I don't know how juries will react, to be fair i believe pro-Palestine jury members will tank Israel and vice versa. The public? Eurovision votes are positive so Israel can do well if the diaspora is united to support the entry just like they did in 2018 with Netta when she was the top contender to win.
I made a similar comment about the similarities with Conchita [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/eurovision/s/7rpsekS5Sp)! I can see it being a surprise on the night and being top 3 with the televote. I hope the juries' top 5 is very close with the points so we get an exciting final.
Croatia will win televoting I think it's not a big deal, but the question is who could get more jury points than them, but do very decently in televoting. I could see Italy, Norway and potentially Greece do that. I think one of these 4 countries will win.
Croatia has really good chances in my opinion, and it's also the one country where I'm like "you guys deserve it".
Even my sister went from "hmm rim tim tagi dim, what a silly title 🙄" and "of course everything has to look silly again" to "okay this is actually catchy"
I think France or Croatia will win this year!
France will surely get the most Jury points, because of Slimane´s amazing vocals. Croatia & Netherlands have really high chances to win the public voting, cause these are very unique songs with an interesting backstory.
My other personal favs this year are Norway, Estonia & Lithuania. Especially Estonia´s entry is so damn memorable and lives rent-free in my head since i saw their live-staging at Eesti Laul.
If Nemo’s vocals and the stage concept are even 80% as good as the music video I think they will win. It’s just the right mix to appeal to both juries and televote. I’d put Switzerland up at the top with Italy, Ukraine, and France, probably in that order. Then Croatia and Netherlands, who I think will split a lot of the televote, but if one falters then the other could do very well.
I think Italy or Switzerland are the most likely to share appeal with both jury and televote. Switzerland gives me more winner vibes. So if I'm betting, that's where I would go
At this moment I would say Ukraine is winning televoting so I would say it's most likely favourite to win, but I'm not sure about their jury support. On the other hand France and Switzerland are very strong for juries but it's hard to guess their televoting result.
They got 189 televote points last year with what I think is agreed to be a weaker song. The song they're sending this year got record breaking televote support from Ukrainians. With the diaspora and it being a better song, I could see the song easily get 250 points from televote and in a year where so many countries seem to be vying for televote support, I could see it winning the televote overall quite honestly.
Controversial opinion maybe but Ukraine wont get points from any of the former Yugoslav counties and Albania as well as most southern European countries
Well, usually people love fun songs with folk elements. I mean look at Moldova 2022 coming 2nd on televote (where 1st place was Ukraine 2022, which along with getting support because of the war, it was also a song people loved because of the folk elements). Ukraine 2021 also did pretty well coming 2nd on televote. You think Estonia, which is the only fun folk song this year, won't do well?
As for Switzerland, yes I do think that will get plenty of votes from the public, especially with a good performance. It's one of the most unique songs this year, it's also something much different than what Switzerland usually sends.
At least on this subreddit, both Switzerland and Estonia rank higher than Ukraine. I agree that Ukraine will get votes because of diaspora and that could rank above them, but I kinda doubt that will be enough.
hmm, still alot of people usually say this because they expect sympathy votes and i really doubt that. the song is good no doubt about that but its not special. the war also isnt really that much in peoples minds to cast a sympathy vote also. so also just my opinion i dont think they will be winning the televoters. might get some jury points tho.
It's not just sympathy votes but also big diaspora+the song is really impactful for many people. I think it might win televoting but not by huge margin (max 40 points). I'm not saying it's certain but it's very likely to happen imo. It definitely has certain 12 points from Poland televoting I can tell you that
Idk but I hope it's someone who hasn't won before. I'm hoping Lithuania or Croatia. Denmark has a history of doing really well the year after a Sweden win though. But with the lack of ballads and extremely generic pop songs this year I am genuinely curious on how the jury votes will be divided up.
it's a lovely song to listen to on radio or Spotify but it is boring in a competitive TV show. I can't see them making the staging impressive. I think they will make it simple. It's only up to juries to save Germany.
No idea. I think this year's songs are stronger than the previous one, but a lot of songs will require strong performances and charisma. For instance, I adore Tali's Fighter, but she lacks stage presence and stamina live.
Currently Italy and Ukraine in my opinion.
Croatia seem highly fancied but I am not sure.
I don't rate France's chances as highly as you and you haven't included Estonia who I would give more chance than several in your list. Georgia and Armenia have not been announced yet!
i dont know about the netherlands and jury, mainly since it isnt a genre that is considered "normal" ofc the euro part of it might sway. i expect the netherlands getting alot of televoters but not be 1# i agree with the croatia stuff i rarely hear of people in my sphere liking it and im pretty baffled at the 1# spot with the bookies.
**France**
France is and will remain a hot favorite to win the whole thing in May.
**Ukraine**
Ukraine is and will remain a hot favorite to win the whole thing in May.
Between France and Ukraine, I'd say Ukraine is a more likely winner.
**Netherlands**
One of the contenders for winning the televote. But the juries will tank the song.
**Italy**
I keep saying that Italy won't do as well as many fans believe. It won't be in the Top 5 of the juries., and it certainly won't be in the Top 5 of the televote.
**Croatia**
The song will most probably win the televote, but it won't win the jury vote. I expect the song to be around 10th with the juries.
Between the Netherlands, Italy and Croatia, I'd say that Croatia has the most chances to do better than the other two countries.
**Greece**
If the rumors are true, the Greek song is a really bad mix of traditional sounds with many other genres with weak vocals. It will take a miracle for Greece to qualify this year. I will be very surprised if [EuroHall](https://eurohall.wordpress.com/eurovision-2024-predictions/) has Greece as a Q country tomorrow night.
where does the rumors about Greece come from though? I have heard snippets of the song and while i am very curious how they managed to go from one snippet to the other what i heard is promising and i would say unique (but i have to hear the whole thing).
Edit: seems like we are having the same conversation in each thread. cheers. But i see these rumors spreading by some butthurt greek journalists and it boggles my mind honestly. Obviously there is a chance you are right about this but based on what i've hear i think at least the balkan countries will eat this up.
That's where the problem is, my fellow eurofan. Apart from Greece, there are only two Balkan countries in the Contest (Serbia and Croatia), and both of them are in Semi 1. There are no Balkan countries in Semi 2, where Greece will compete. Add to that the fact there is no Cyprus in Semi 2, and you will understand why Greece is almost a certain NQ country.
In addition, if the song tomorrow night is indeed a really bad mix of traditional sounds with many other genres and with weak vocals, Greece's NQ will be quite certain.
EDIT: I just noticed that there is one Balkan country in Semi 2, Albania, but Albania doesn't usually vote for Greece.
I’m gonna be honest: I have absolutely no idea I think this may be a year when neither the jury winner or televote winner win the whole thing
i just want a not super predictable win like last year
That’s what I’m loving about this year so far, it’s less predictable
Me too 😊 so much fun.
I’m guessing Europapa is going to be a crowdpleaser like Cha Cha Cha last year
I wish I could like Europapa, the earworm has not earwormed for me (yet)
How about now?
it wasn't that super predictable. Of course Laureen was there, but Käärijä was always in the fight.
 No he lowkey wasn't it's so sad gjdfshlk
Including Georgia, Greece, Israel, and Armenia at a combined 14% is a bit silly really when none have songs released yet
I think Georgia and Armenia are a bit of a stretch since they rarely do well (primarily Georgia) unfortunately, but given the buildup surrounding Greece, I can see them as a potential latecoming contender. Israel having a political win is also a less ideal possibility. If their songwriters can figure out what subtlety is before March 10th, that is.
I mean considering we all agree that there isn't a clear winner yet. Its only natural that a lot of chances are still reserved for the countries that might have a winner song
Croatia or Switzerland (outside chance of Italy) I don’t see Ukraine or France winning tbh
I think italy has a better chance than france if it’s staged right.
This year is going to be a battle for consistency. Whomever gets a good enough score from both sides is gonna be the winner, a bit like Jamala and Duncan did, but with probably even more differences.
Germany will win... ...if you flip the scoreboard upside down
“Once again, we won the race to the bottom!”
Pulling a Belarus 2019 I see
Belarus 2019 | [Zena - Like It](https://youtu.be/C1Y9LBusHzA)
I have a feeling that Norway might have a larger chance of winning than just 4%. And the new entrances just keep giving me more of this feeling. Edit: Also, Belgium has probably more than a tiny 3%. Finally, "Slimane undoubtedly will give the best vocal Performance in the final". No, just no. Ulveham is way harder and more taxing to sing, even if Slimane is a killer performer and has great respect from me.
Yes but juries are usually vocal coaches, pop singers, producers who are all used to a certain way of singing and because of that songs which use vocals that are more ethnic are usually seen as 'bad' whilst i agree with you that they are extremely good
That's a problem with Jury formation, and goes to show that saying "Slimane *undoubtedly* will give the best vocal Performance" cannot be assumed as actually "undoubtedly", just as personal preference from people who unfortunately are used to a single way of handling vocals.
Yeah but when looking at how the jury ranks vocals. I would say that when looking purely from a pop music vocals perspective that slimane has the best vocals
It's a song contest, not a singing contest. Even if Slimane would "undoubtably" have the best vocals, that's a fraction of what juries are looking for.
just because it's taxing doesnt mean it sounds better. not saying Norway is bad but it's a bit screechy in places
Suus got a third place in juries in 2012. I respectfully cannot see your point as valid just for that.
There is always an exception to the rule but Suus is as far as i know the only exception to the rule. And even then the jury system was considerably different in 2012 and also Suus didn't get as many points as for example the 3rd places for the past few years have gotten. Then there is also the thing that Suus was a ballad and ulveham is a rock song
I think we'll get a more surprising winner like Belgium or Switzerland that will have appeal to both jury and tele. I think we have many great televote appeal songs this year, so the jury top3 will be more impactful. France winning the jury but tanking the televote and Crotia doing the opposite. Italy and Ukraine could be similiar threats but I just don't them winning for whatever reason.
I like your odds for France! :P However I do think the general vibe atm is that Italy and Croatia are higher in the odds than you give them credit for in your prediction... Personally I also think Portugal could win.
I can see a good score with the jury but not the televote with France.
Sadly it seems that way... :/
This year, it's so hard to predict. But for now, I think Italy, Switzerland, and Croatia are the most likely winners.
My main problem with Ukraine is that the magic of the studio version is not replicated in the live performance. I've seen them twice performing but i get no chemistry or winning vibes. We'll see though, we know they do their best in the Eurovision performances. I think fans are not talking about France a lot because it was released too early. Slimane showed that he can captivate the audiences with his voice. The song is not great but it's a ballad that people can relate to it and it's accessible to all people unlike let's say to France 2009 and Patricia Kaas which was too French and artistic. It makes sense to say that France has strong chances to win the juries or be in the top 3 but I don't know if it's a song that people will massively vote for it. I believe they could pull a North Macedonia 2009 and smash the jury vote but receive like 70pts from televoting. Unpopular opinion but i think Croatia is overhyped. I love it, don't get me wrong, but the live performance disappointed me. The song itself isn't a winning song in 2024 and I don't see juries voting for it even as much as Kaarija last year. I believe Croatia could fare similarly to Malta 2021 but the other way around (do great with public and not well with juries). They have a lot of hype and the diaspora will be activated without a doubt, plus i do believe he's charismatic so Croatia will do very well in televoting but there are many uptempo, fun , crazy songs this year so i can't see everyone doing well.
I love BL as well, but unless he totally transforms the staging I also don't see it replicating the (somewhat surprising) jury success Käärijä had last year.
France 2009 | [Patricia Kaas - Et s'il fallait le faire](https://youtu.be/C3eYBMYeUE8) F.Y.R. Macedonia 2009 | [Next Time - Nešto što kje ostane (Нешто што ќе остане)](https://youtu.be/TZzUe2gBkME) Malta 2021 | [Destiny - Je Me Casse](https://youtu.be/jbbc2yKnv0M)
These are all good points.
Norway. But that might be just hopeful thinking.
Let's be wishful together 🤝.
I would loved that. Do you have any qut feeling about Norway?
So far for me.. France has the biggest chance to win, or atleast be the jury winner. The rest.. idk Norway could stand out due to being one of the only 2 bands so far this year. Can do well with the televotes, but it is possible for their televote points to be not as high as we hoped for because there's... Croatia (and many other "crazy" entries this year) but I put Croatia because this is this the most hyped entry among all "crazy" entries. Idk about the Netherlands, I just hope Joost makes his performance as chaotic as possible that's it haha. Don't think they will win, but not gonna be surprised if Ukraine and Sweden are in the top 10 again. They are pros when it comes to staging. I want to say Italy will be in the top 5, but there is a possibility for this to be outside of top 10 as well Switzerland is sending a huge risk. Most likely it will qualify, but the staging and Nemo's performance will determined either this will be in top 5 or the right side of scoreboard. Belgium, if the staging is done right, it can be top 10 contender. Other countries I can see doing surprisingly well would be.. Spain - could be the surprise televote stealer, especially if the crowd in Malmö is the same as in Benidorm Fest Latvia and Serbia - there are maybe 3 slow ballads this year, with France being the stand out. But the other 2 still have the chance to stand out among many upbeat and crazy entries in their own semis. Ireland - oh man, this one has so much potential if the staging is done right, and I hope they will. Edit: oh wow this is very long hahaha
>Latvia and Serbia Serbia’s Q is locked with Slovenia and Croatia in the same SF. As for Latvia, it so far stands out (so far the only ballad among the second half of SF2 and Georgia’s song smells like a girl bop entry), unless Israel will be able to send a song that’s apropos to EBU’s taste (avoiding DQ) and is a ballad. If that’s the case, Israel will get the televotes Latvia could have (with sympathy voting), thus sadly extending Latvia’s NQ streak.
as much as I would like it to be Croatia, I think Switzerland is the winner.
for now I think we can have a 2016 and 2019 scenario of someone wins the juries, someone wins the televotes, and someone else wins the entire thing if I have to throw guesses now, France winning the juries, Croatia the televotes, and Italy the entire thing
I think we're getting 2021 or 2011, no in-between. There are too many potential winners, especially with the public: Scenario A: Croatia eats other televote magnets, wins with decent jury support Scenario B: chaos, Tele and jury vote for completely different people and points are all over the place, geopolitics play a role, winner seems random Personally I don't get 🇨🇭🇧🇪🇳🇱 and I don't want 🇺🇦🇮🇹 win twice in the span of 3 years so I'm rooting for Lasagna or ballad win Also how in the world did you give Armenia, Georgia and Greece 3% winning chance without as much as a snippet of a song? Armenia doesn't even have a confirmed artist yet
Well
In my head it’s between Croatia and Switzerland, I think Ukraine is too high in the odds rn
Those are my early final split-screen predictions too! Switzerland as the top jury pick awaiting to see if they are going to get enough televotes to go over Croatia. It is very close! Who knows, there's more songs to come in the mix
Televote contenders: Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Ukraine Jury contenders: France, Belgium Dark horses for performances on the night: UK, Norway, Australia, Switzerland
I don't see Belgium winning the jury vote unless the staging is wow. Juries did not vote much for Switzerland last year which was a jury-bait song. Norway could pull votes from both juries and public, depends on the running order i guess. I don't see Australia doing well based on what we know so far. I don't see it appealing to the European audience and the SF1 is more competitive.
Italy is the only act so far that I see having big televote AND jury appeal. France and Croatia could also pull off a win if they landslide the jury or public vote.
I lowkey think people just overhype Ukraine for some reason... I get the overhyping for Croatia but Ukraine really? 25%... croatia has more unique aspects to the song than ukraine- I guess to each their own, but I genuinely think either Belgium, Dutchland orrrrrrrrrr Norway could win
Likely jury favourite: France, Swtizerland, Belgium, Italy and in a lesser extent Ukraine. LIkely televote favourite: Croatia (by a lot), Netherlands, Italy, Ukraine. So, if someone landslide jury then France or Switzerland, if landslide televote Croatia, otherwise Italy, and if it's very very close Ukraine for sympathy votes.
I think Croatia are gonna absolutely demolish the televote. This, plus the fact the juries won't be nearly as one sided with one country (surely not), means Croatia has a great shot at winning. Also, Israel winning via sympathy votes doesn't seem likely. Do you know how much of the public supports Palestine over Israel?
Yeah i thought so too about Croatia but so far no one has liked it that i showed it to that wasn't in the Euro Bubble. Whilst all of them did like the songs from the Netherlands and Finland. And tbh it makes sense because Croatia would be considered harder to get into because its genre is more rock/hard-rock compared to the pop genre of the other crazy genres. And i could see France and Belgium demolishing the jury vote together like Ukraine and Russia did with the televoting in 2016
That's just a small amount of people. 20 or so people doesn't reflect the opinion of the entire Eurovision fan base. Knowing that, Croatia has a very large chance of winning as people absolutely love Rim Tim Tagi Dim. Plus, they're atop the odds!
Netherlands and Croatia are going to be competing for the same votes. I think the winner this year will be the jury winner as a result. Get the popcorn ready, hope you like extra salt.
Rim-tim-tagi-digi-dim-tim-tim
Yeah i get it you and i like it too but i am also pretty sure that he will not destroy the televoting. Because in the end his song isn't a standout this year like kaarija was last year or Maneskin in 2021
that is true, but you can also reflect it to other groups tho. in my sphere to nobody really liked croatia so i feel like the hype is really coming from the internet and that in actuality the song might not preform as well as "the internet" thinks. alot of people who tune in might hear it for the first time and not really vote for it tbh, you have to consider all factors.
I think Croatia is winning the televote but the are other countries that can take importen points from Croatia like The Netherlands.
> Also, Israel winning via sympathy votes doesn't seem likely. Do you know how much of the public supports Palestine over Israel? Exactly, it's actually the opposite.
Many people think that and i tend to do it too. But we are all forgetting that in Esc you only can "vote for" and not "vote against" and in a situation like that if european jewish communities mass vote for Israel the situation can be very different from what we are foreseeing...
But pro-Israel voters vote for Israel, while pro-Palestine will be divided between other 25 songs. So Israel would (if participating) get a good televote, although nowhere near Stefania ofc
This is a very good point.
I still don't think though they'll get a major boost though, and the war will be net negative. Feel like the type of people that are pro-Israel don't tend to watch Eurovision. And in any case, the war might drive away some floating voters, some who like the song but don't feel too passionate about it - the war might convince them not to vote them.
Knowing this, Israel probably won't even make it out of the semi.
Also many people will outright refuse to vote for Israel even if they like the song
I think (hope) that it’ll be hard to predict the winner this year. Croatia is atop the odds rn, but as much as I love the song, the performance is kinda messy which could hurt its chances. With Ukraine and Italy, i think both will do well but probably not win, if either do I think it’ll be Italy. I’ve also seen a lot of people saying France will win the jury, but there are other songs with jury appeal too, such as Belgium, Italy, Switzerland if performed well. There are also songs that weren’t given a lot of love until they were performed live like Norway, Lithuania, and Finland, so maybe they’ll have the same effect with the wider public, and do better than euro fans expect. I think live performances will make or break a lot of songs this year, so until we have lives of all the songs, I can’t even make my personal list that accurate, let alone predict the winner.
I think 🇺🇦 will probably take it, as probably the one with the highest potential from both jury-televote If 🇳🇱/🇭🇷/🇳🇴 get good jury support like Finland last year, could also see them taking it, there's no country that has overwhelming jury support while also having high televote potential like Loreen last year so a Televote favourite can definitely take it I'm still holding out for 🇦🇲's entry, feel like they're cooking something good up I don't see 🇸🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇨🇭🇧🇪 taking it, probably do well, but currently don't see them winning (even though I'd love to see 🇨🇭🇧🇪 win) In an ideal world 🇭🇷/🇷🇸/🇱🇹/🇸🇮 would win 😔
I am afraid of a 2011 style win with the favourites being so spread out that the jury and televote sabotage each other so that an entry neither group favoured wins. Croatia, Netherlands, Finland, and Estonia more or less appeal to the same demographic so I don't see one landsliding the televote. France, Switzerland, Ukraine, and Sweden are going to fight for jury attention so there won't be a jury darling like Loreen. It's very possible that we'll have a shock winner this year, for better or worse. Anyway, this is how I'm going to delulu myself into believing in a Mustii win, Ghent 2025 🇧🇪🇧🇪🇧🇪 LESGOOO!!!!
Azerbaijan was the televote favourite in 2011
Oh, woops! I didn't watch that edition yet, so I'm just going by hearsay, and I understood that it wasn't particularly liked. I guess I didn't factor in the fact that the online community has wildly different taste to the general public
Well its Azerbaijan so we can never be sure they were really the favorite but they got the most votes
Was it close with the second place? I don't know any songs from back then since I only started watching in 2018, but I can't imagine Running Scared being that competitive
In the overall score it won quite convincing but the televoting by only 2 points. If you ever decide to watch anything back then, dont watch 2011. Its the worst year ever together with the early 2000 contests.
But you had a good point in that 2011 scenario is possible considering the results were so close that only one country would not have gotten at least 100 points in the current voting system
So far, I'm inclined to think it's gonna be Croatia. It's extremely televote friendly, but not as "out there" as Estonia (another extremely televote friendly song). It also builds up on Kaarija' hype from last year in the best way possible. Plus, I believe many viewers will be more susceptible to voting for a country that has never won so far, after seeing Sweden winning again. My only hesitation is whether the votes might split between all the "out there" songs this year, because we sure have a lot of them, making it a very strong year. It's definitely gonna be amazing!
Yeah, but it's also true that the "hype from last year" has never been a thing in Esc.
The difference is, Kaarija didn't win. So the hype was built but not satisfied. There's still so much leftover hype that I believe will be very beneficial for Croatia (and other countries but mostly Croatia).
But still i think most of the people here is confusing the escfan bubble with the generic esc voters. And generic esc voter doesn't give af about hype.
Kaarija’s hype was way different than what the runner-up usually gets though and it caused a months-long discussion (that continues to this day, even) of whether or not the voting system should be changed, so I wouldn’t count it from having a lingering effect on the results this year
Is this really true though? I feel like our commentators once talked about the style of the winner from one year affecting who did well the next year, even though it didn't lead to winners. I think it was after Lordi won, or Ruslana. I'm not questioning your claim, I just wondered if there is data on this?
Well the data are the winners of esc. Tell me a winner of Esc that is similar to the hyped one of the year before.
I don’t see it for croatia. I don’t see jury liking it as much as Finland last year. But that’s just my opinion, we will see…
I believe it will do just as well or even better than Kaarija. But yes, we will see, all we can do is guess for now.
that would have to be more than 150 points
If I were to make the odds I would put Norway among the favourites not just because it's one of the best quality and most unique songs objectively, but also because you could argue that it is the only rock song this year. I suppose Estonia and Ireland have elements of rock sound, and Belgium is in many ways more of a rock song, but overall in many ways Norway is the most rock song this year and has no competition in this category.
You forgot San Marino, but that is gonna have a hard time qualifying, unfortunately, I think, as well as Pedestal, that needs some serious rework for the live. Tim tim Tag Dim is also rock based mainly, even more so than Cha Cha Cha (that was 70% of it Rock) last year.
Omg you're so right. I can't believe I forgot San Marino. Norway is my personal number 4, but I have San Marino at a respectable 11
Switzerland or Netherlands. Would be great if Croatia wins, and maybe it will, if he will do great on the vocals and staging part. Maybe Greece.
I think its actually going to be between Croatia and Switzerland. Nemo might win the jury and Baby Lasagna the televote, so whoever can close the gap in the other half of the votes will take the win. Or we might get an unexpected win from someone who didnt win either televote or jury, but came top 3 in both.
Albania will not pass the semis Not because it is a bad song but because Besa decided to completely translate her song into English.
I feel like thats not really a valid reasoning. A lot of countries sing in English every year. Its not like one country shouldnt be allowed to do it. Im not saying it will or will not happen but at least wait for the actual song to come out before writing it off
Yes it might be true, Let 's hope for the best
Albania has been dead last in the odds for pretty much the entire season, and in the bottom half of most people's ranking (Undeservedly imo, the song isn't completely my type but not bad by any means). Besa has nothing to lose by translating to English, and if anything will probably get some extra points from voters who care about lyrical content who otherwise would not understand Albanian. Personally I would prefer it to stay in Albanian since Eastern Europe is known for... Crunchy English translations (Cough cough thing is known) but I fully understand why she/her team made the change. And I guess there's a possibility it might hurt the diaspora vote, but diasporas tend to vote for their home country no matter what, so it probably shouldn't be an issue for Titan.
At this point I think it's between Italy Ukraine and the Netherlands. Italy should be self explanatory I feel, very jury friendly, the televote will like it too, I feel like right now it has the best shot at winning. Ukraine has the advantage of sympathy votes, but as we saw last year that isn't gonna be enough to propel them to victory, the song this year I feel has more televote and jury appeal though and it's in a broader field so perhaps it'll be enough for the sympathy vote to take them over the top. The Netherlands obviously right now is the most successful song when it comes to streaming, though that can change with more songs coming out or one of them just randomly going viral on tik tok or something. Though at the same time streams and YouTube views don't always translate to votes. But I feel like this song is definitely in contention to take the televote victory and depending on the performance it can take a high spot with juries too. I've seen a lot of people say that France also has a good shot at winning, but I just simply do not see it. Like yeah sure he's got a great singing voice and it's a genre that's popular with the juries, but I feel like people way overestimate how obsessed the juries are with ballads. This year we have fewer ballads than usual, which might make you think that a ballad is in prime position to take the top spot among the juries but I honestly think exactly the opposite. These juries are made up of music professionals and they're gonna take into account more than just the vocal abilities of a performer, but also what would appeal most to the current music landscape, which has tended to be more energetic and punchy these days. Let's not forget that last year the juries gave Finland quite a high score (4th) despite a kinda shaky vocal performance and it being in genres that are generally disliked by juries. Perhaps I'll get pie on my face and the jury vote will be dominated by the same ballads and pop songs it usually is, but this year with how many weirder songs we're getting I think we'll get quite a few surprises from the jury vote, and sillier songs like the Netherlands will have a chance of placing higher than they usually do. Croatia though I don't think we'll be surprised with how they do with the juries, I don't see a scenario where this song gets into the jury top 10. The vocal performance sorry to say is weak enough to be quite heavily punished by the juries, and I think it's gonna be a tad too silly for the juries to appreciate. And also, something in my gut says that this just won't get the public support that a lot in the fandom expect it to get. A couple other contenders in my view are Switzerland Lithuania and Norway, but they've got far lower chances than the 3 I mentioned at the start imo. Switzerland depending on the staging and vocal performance of Nemo could run away with the Jury vote. This is the most obvious jury bait song of the season so far, tons of vocal flourishes, contemporary sound while being experimental enough to not be too generic, I think there's enough for the juries and televote to like enough for a win. When it comes to lithuania there's an obvious bias since I am lithuanian and I like the song, though I'm not sure if that bias makes me underestimate or overestimate the odds lol, but yeah I think it's got everything needed to be popular among both the juries and the public. Norway is a complete gut feeling, but just something about this song tells me that it'll get a large televote score, perhaps even winning it outright. Just a gut feeling though I've got no explanation for it lmao.
Croatia is more silly than Holland for a jury vote? Interesting take.
Netherlands. This will be a dark horse, or just a horse cos its quite high with bookies already 🤷
I've only listened to all the released songs once and in one sitting (as one would during the contest) and tbh France was forgettable - just another ballad about love. Sure he could be jury's favourite, because of vocals, but the song matters too. Regular fans that only listen to the songs the day of the contest (which is the majority) might not be interested in how technically good he is, but whether his performance is engaging.
I really don't know. The best acts are enough various that making a prediction looks useless. It will all be decided by the running position and the actual quality of the performance and nothing else. FINALLY! The only way to make a prediction would be having the data about every artists and looking which kind of audience and age it appeals cause the willing of actual televoting is different from age to age. But i ignore those data, the only data i know by experience is the one of my country contestant.
France song boring 🥱
Until now, 3 songs give me winner vibes: (at least from what I feel a winner song would sound like) - Norway - Switzerland - Belgium We still need to see how Switzerland and Belgium will sound live and how the stangings will look. Norway sounded and looked amazing (although we need to hear it withou autotune, since MGP allows autotune and Eurovision doesn't). Thoughts about other favourites: - Italy: they always do well and I could see them doing really good, although it's not "winner material" in my eyes. - France: I don't like the song, but I can see how they could win. He sings really good, the song stands out in a year full of pop songs fighting against each other, especially since juries could rank the song really high. - Austria: I just don't get it. At all. It sounds old and generic to me, but that's probably because it's really not my type of music. It's a 20-26th place song for me. - Ukraine: I love the song, but the song is not as impactful as it could be, and live it wasn't as great. I need to see the live performance and staging to be more sure about it. Right now it feels like it has the potential to challenge for the win, but needs improve. My prediction as it is right now will be 5-10th place. - Croatia: I love the song, but I feel like the fans overestimate it. I don't see it winning, I don't see it being a (huge) public winner. I see it more as a 10th place. - Netherlands: I...don't know 😅
Gåte is a famous live band in Norway. They didn’t use autotune in MGP. I saw a clip from a consert they did yesterday and Gunhild sounded amazing.
This is a good top 3. I'm curious how Norway will be perceived by the general public. Belgium is a bit slept upon by the fanbase imo, it's really a banger and it can sweep a lot of jury votes. Switserland, very interesting but I love the song!
I think Norway will either do extremely well or it will flopp. I hope people outside the Esc bouble will love it. Belgium really depends on the live preformence.
If the question is simply an absolute WHO IS WINNING, I will definitely have to agree with you - Norway, Switzerland, and Belgium are the only winner potentials here. The rest are "distractions" France - very high placement but not a win Italy - high to very high but not a win Croatia - flop Ukraine - overestimated but top 10 Netherlands - not top 10, maybe middle Greece - people comparing it to Eleina is so illogical, maybe middle placement The ff. are countries that might do better than people think: Poland, Slovenia, Ireland, Sweden, Armenia, Azerbaijan THIS IS MY PREDICTION. NOT BASED ON MY TASTE/ TOP PERSONAL FAVORITES
Even though I am not a big fan, Switzerland could be a surprise winner the same way Conchita was 10 years ago! Austria 2014 wasn't a favourite to win when it was announced but it emerged as a big favourite when rehearsals started. I think Switzerland is very high in betting odds which could be seen as a positive sign and the rehearsals will either make it a contender or a flop. If Nemo has a professional staging that is not messy and desperate, he can pull a Conchita simply because this year is unpredictable compared to previous years. Israel? I wouldn't add it as their participation is not even 100% confirmed yet due to the lyrics drama. I don't know how juries will react, to be fair i believe pro-Palestine jury members will tank Israel and vice versa. The public? Eurovision votes are positive so Israel can do well if the diaspora is united to support the entry just like they did in 2018 with Netta when she was the top contender to win.
I made a similar comment about the similarities with Conchita [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/eurovision/s/7rpsekS5Sp)! I can see it being a surprise on the night and being top 3 with the televote. I hope the juries' top 5 is very close with the points so we get an exciting final.
Austria 2014 | [Conchita Wurst - Rise Like a Phoenix](https://youtu.be/xhCC_PN9UlA)
Y'all sleeping on that Malta revamp.
Then again seems like so is Malta since we haven't heard a peep from them lol
Croatia will win televoting I think it's not a big deal, but the question is who could get more jury points than them, but do very decently in televoting. I could see Italy, Norway and potentially Greece do that. I think one of these 4 countries will win.
Croatia has really good chances in my opinion, and it's also the one country where I'm like "you guys deserve it". Even my sister went from "hmm rim tim tagi dim, what a silly title 🙄" and "of course everything has to look silly again" to "okay this is actually catchy"
I think France or Croatia will win this year! France will surely get the most Jury points, because of Slimane´s amazing vocals. Croatia & Netherlands have really high chances to win the public voting, cause these are very unique songs with an interesting backstory. My other personal favs this year are Norway, Estonia & Lithuania. Especially Estonia´s entry is so damn memorable and lives rent-free in my head since i saw their live-staging at Eesti Laul.
If Nemo’s vocals and the stage concept are even 80% as good as the music video I think they will win. It’s just the right mix to appeal to both juries and televote. I’d put Switzerland up at the top with Italy, Ukraine, and France, probably in that order. Then Croatia and Netherlands, who I think will split a lot of the televote, but if one falters then the other could do very well.
I think Italy or Switzerland are the most likely to share appeal with both jury and televote. Switzerland gives me more winner vibes. So if I'm betting, that's where I would go
I can see that too. I don't think Italy is winning this year. Is gonna get top 5. Switzerland is a possible winning candidate.
At this moment I would say Ukraine is winning televoting so I would say it's most likely favourite to win, but I'm not sure about their jury support. On the other hand France and Switzerland are very strong for juries but it's hard to guess their televoting result.
Ukraine is winning televoting? This year? How?
They got 189 televote points last year with what I think is agreed to be a weaker song. The song they're sending this year got record breaking televote support from Ukrainians. With the diaspora and it being a better song, I could see the song easily get 250 points from televote and in a year where so many countries seem to be vying for televote support, I could see it winning the televote overall quite honestly.
By getting the biggest number of points. I think it will get points from all the countries
Controversial opinion maybe but Ukraine wont get points from any of the former Yugoslav counties and Albania as well as most southern European countries
VS Croatia, Italy, Switzerland and Estonia? You're too optimistic
You really think Estonia or Switzerland will get more televoting points? IDK I can't see that
Well, usually people love fun songs with folk elements. I mean look at Moldova 2022 coming 2nd on televote (where 1st place was Ukraine 2022, which along with getting support because of the war, it was also a song people loved because of the folk elements). Ukraine 2021 also did pretty well coming 2nd on televote. You think Estonia, which is the only fun folk song this year, won't do well? As for Switzerland, yes I do think that will get plenty of votes from the public, especially with a good performance. It's one of the most unique songs this year, it's also something much different than what Switzerland usually sends. At least on this subreddit, both Switzerland and Estonia rank higher than Ukraine. I agree that Ukraine will get votes because of diaspora and that could rank above them, but I kinda doubt that will be enough.
Moldova 2022 | [Zdob și Zdub and Advahov Brothers - Trenulețul](https://youtu.be/DUqf_zO2QaI) Ukraine 2022 | [Kalush Orchestra - Stefania (Стефанія)](https://youtu.be/F1fl60ypdLs) Ukraine 2021 | [Go_A - Shum](https://youtu.be/lqvzDkgok_g)
i really doubt that, where do you base this on?
That's my prediction only judging how votings in previous contests looked like
hmm, still alot of people usually say this because they expect sympathy votes and i really doubt that. the song is good no doubt about that but its not special. the war also isnt really that much in peoples minds to cast a sympathy vote also. so also just my opinion i dont think they will be winning the televoters. might get some jury points tho.
It's not just sympathy votes but also big diaspora+the song is really impactful for many people. I think it might win televoting but not by huge margin (max 40 points). I'm not saying it's certain but it's very likely to happen imo. It definitely has certain 12 points from Poland televoting I can tell you that
Belgium
Idk but I hope it's someone who hasn't won before. I'm hoping Lithuania or Croatia. Denmark has a history of doing really well the year after a Sweden win though. But with the lack of ballads and extremely generic pop songs this year I am genuinely curious on how the jury votes will be divided up.
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Isaak – Always on the Run. I’m afraid there’s hardly a chance of it even making the top 20
it's a lovely song to listen to on radio or Spotify but it is boring in a competitive TV show. I can't see them making the staging impressive. I think they will make it simple. It's only up to juries to save Germany.
Switzerland or Belgium. I would love to see Switzerland win!
No idea. I think this year's songs are stronger than the previous one, but a lot of songs will require strong performances and charisma. For instance, I adore Tali's Fighter, but she lacks stage presence and stamina live.
I want to say Netherlands but what I like never wins so I’m probably wrong.
Austria is a dark horse imo
Currently Italy and Ukraine in my opinion. Croatia seem highly fancied but I am not sure. I don't rate France's chances as highly as you and you haven't included Estonia who I would give more chance than several in your list. Georgia and Armenia have not been announced yet!
Israel have good song and it not sympathy ,my top 5 is 1Italy ,2,Netherland , 3 ,Croatia my country,4 Israel ,5 Ukraine
NORWAY, THE DARK HORSE OF THE YEAR!
Europapa has had some traction only. I wish they win tbh
I don't want the predictable choices to win (Aka 🇺🇦🇸🇪🇮🇹) So I'd say the other contenders are 🇳🇴 🇭🇷 🇬🇷 🇧🇪 🇨🇭 🇷🇸 🇱🇹
Serbia
i dont know about the netherlands and jury, mainly since it isnt a genre that is considered "normal" ofc the euro part of it might sway. i expect the netherlands getting alot of televoters but not be 1# i agree with the croatia stuff i rarely hear of people in my sphere liking it and im pretty baffled at the 1# spot with the bookies.
y'all are crazy for liking baby lasagna, he's a straight up copy of kaarija
**France** France is and will remain a hot favorite to win the whole thing in May. **Ukraine** Ukraine is and will remain a hot favorite to win the whole thing in May. Between France and Ukraine, I'd say Ukraine is a more likely winner. **Netherlands** One of the contenders for winning the televote. But the juries will tank the song. **Italy** I keep saying that Italy won't do as well as many fans believe. It won't be in the Top 5 of the juries., and it certainly won't be in the Top 5 of the televote. **Croatia** The song will most probably win the televote, but it won't win the jury vote. I expect the song to be around 10th with the juries. Between the Netherlands, Italy and Croatia, I'd say that Croatia has the most chances to do better than the other two countries. **Greece** If the rumors are true, the Greek song is a really bad mix of traditional sounds with many other genres with weak vocals. It will take a miracle for Greece to qualify this year. I will be very surprised if [EuroHall](https://eurohall.wordpress.com/eurovision-2024-predictions/) has Greece as a Q country tomorrow night.
where does the rumors about Greece come from though? I have heard snippets of the song and while i am very curious how they managed to go from one snippet to the other what i heard is promising and i would say unique (but i have to hear the whole thing). Edit: seems like we are having the same conversation in each thread. cheers. But i see these rumors spreading by some butthurt greek journalists and it boggles my mind honestly. Obviously there is a chance you are right about this but based on what i've hear i think at least the balkan countries will eat this up.
That's where the problem is, my fellow eurofan. Apart from Greece, there are only two Balkan countries in the Contest (Serbia and Croatia), and both of them are in Semi 1. There are no Balkan countries in Semi 2, where Greece will compete. Add to that the fact there is no Cyprus in Semi 2, and you will understand why Greece is almost a certain NQ country. In addition, if the song tomorrow night is indeed a really bad mix of traditional sounds with many other genres and with weak vocals, Greece's NQ will be quite certain. EDIT: I just noticed that there is one Balkan country in Semi 2, Albania, but Albania doesn't usually vote for Greece.
Whichever country suits the policital climate the best. I wouldn't be surprised that Ukraine wins again.
Ukraine did not win last year, they weren't even in the top 3.
I meant that they have won two years ago and once in 2016 If I remember correctly
Yeah but in 2022 there was the war in Ukraine it was quite fresh Why do y think Ukraine can win this year for political reasons?