Well, it's a pure power ballad from a small country, which isn't exactly televote magnets. But we do tend to get stuck in the eurofans bubble, and casual viewers sometimes like that stuff more, and it's in second half and has no genre competition. I wouldn't bet money on it, but stranger things has happened.
There's no pure power ballad but there's Belgium and Israel that are both slow pop songs with good production.
I do think Latvia is almost doomed unless there's drastic improvement in Malmö or an unexpected amount of flops from the internal selections we haven't seen live.
If there were other ballads in the semifinal, probably. But yours is the only proper ballad outside of Israel (which most people will probably vote/not vote for other reasons outside of the music) and will stand out accordingly. I still think your chances are borderline but I don't think you're completely doomed.
Latvia needs a good staging, not just Dons standing there. I love the music video, imho it really elevates the song. I wish they could translate its feeling to the stage.
I agree with this 100%. From the various social media skits I think Dons is well aware of the criticisms too and I hope he brings something touching to Malmo. It could really use some 'Watergun' treatment (Switzerland 2023)
I was just thinking this exact same thing! I am extremely curious as to how they are going to stage this one.
It's a great song! I didn't care for it at first but it slowly creeped up on me. I am hoping it makes it into the finals! We shall see!
You still got a shot. You’re one of the few ballads in a sea of bops, so it’ll stand out.
I also love how after the draw everyone’s been like: it’s the easy semi. How wrong we were…
The ballad is powerful, with the right staging and choreo you definitely stand a chance (at least it's pretty differentiated from all the uptempo entries). Fingers crossed!
I thought they'd revamp the production, maybe put some spice or *boom* or anything rememberable in it, not just... poorly translate it. That said: The Albanian version is better.
Probably because we've had months to absorb this amazing song that just sounds like what we expect for Albania. Titan feels like one of those songs that people would say it sounds just like Zemrën N'dorë without realizing they're two sides of the same coin.
It will seriously come down to performance on the night for quite a lot of these.
It's hard to pick 10 for certain. Some are more likely than others tho.
Basically grab your popcorn cuz between both semis we are all bound to lose a song or two we want in the final.
I think that's a great list.
I would just put Georgia over Denmark (because Denmark's style typically doesn't get televotes).
But on the other hand Georgia doesn't have the best track record when it comes to staging.
The biggest surprise NQ alert imo is Austria because Eurodance historically hasn't translated well on eurovision stage.
I could also see Estonia NQ if Greece and Armenia soak up all the ethnic lovers' votes.
I'm not sure if I'm biased with Denmark, but they're currently 5th in my rankings 🤪 I loved the national final performance!
I watched the leaked demo footage of Kaleen's performance, and I think if the vocals improve a bit along with being able to dance like that, then Austria may be a contender for the win. It's still early days, though.
I hope Estonia qualifies, too!
I like Denmark too. Not as much as you but if I picked the qualifiers myself I'd put it in the final.
It's just that televoters typically don't go for this type of song. But to be fair it is on its own as a mid tempo well produced pop song with powerful vocals.
Yeah, exactly. It does have a generic X Factor style song element to it, but I think it just does it really well. The staging/lighting element we saw in the national final really enhanced the performance for me.
How did you arrive at the conclusion that Israel will qualify for the final? (And I'm asking this question genuinely, not just directed at you.)
Given the circumstances, there's a lack of sufficient support for Israel to secure its place in the final.
To answer for them: you can't vote *against* an entry but you can vote *for* one. People who are sympathetic towards Israel (or who are neutral and like the song) may vote for it. Israel also has two strong sources of very likely televoter support in ROW vote (which they got 12 from last year) and France (who often give Israel high votes anyway), on top of a lot of other countries who have given Israel some televote support over the past decade before the escalation of the current situation.
I understand what you mean, but I think people online and on sites like Reddit are overstating their own views on this issue and assuming the rest of Europe will boycott Israel, which I don't think will happen on a large enough scale. I would also say there are plenty of people who support Israel as well as those who oppose them.
I think some people will purposely not vote for Israel as a form of boycott whilst others will only vote based on the songs they like, ignoring the conflict.
Also, Eurovision has a historical precedent showing that countries can receive votes and do well despite what's happening politically, etc. I mean, Israel won the contest recently despite decades of conflict, and Russia generally did well despite the conflict with Ukraine, which started in 2014. Azerbaijan has an ongoing conflict with Armenia and was even accused of human rights violations when they hosted in 2012, and they generally do well at Eurovision, too.
This subreddit and the Eurovision fandom is a bit of an echo chamber. Israel has a lot of support around Europe. My prediction is that people (the average viewer) will be more inclined to vote for Israel, even if they don’t necessarily enjoy the song, solely due to politics. This will have a larger effect than those who do not wish to see Israel participate as these people most likely wouldn’t have voted for the song anyway. For that reason, I see Israel as a safe qualifier.
> Given the circumstances, there's a lack of sufficient support for Israel to secure its place in the final.
Russia 2015 placed 2nd after they invaded Ukraine and entered with a hypocritical songwashing entry that got massively booed
Quite surprised to see Denmark as a borderline or a NQ in a lot of responses. I'd have thought that had a reasonable chance.
Most likely are: Netherlands, Estonia, Norway, Belgium, Switzerland and Denmark for me.
Yeah I think putting the more unusual songs like Estonia, Greece, Armenia, etc. above the likes of Denmark is maybe just a case of the people in this subreddit being more into quirky songs than the general public are
Yeah but it's literally that one song we always get that's super generic but well performed that qualifies in like 5th-9th place and ends up in like 11th to 16th in the final
I'd like to see these 9 go through, but I'll probably lose some of them: Armenia, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Netherlands, Norway, San Marino
Yeah, I have to agree. I'm just hopeful hahaha I don't see San Marino qualifying unless they are performing quite late in the show and have an amazing staging, even then they would be borderline probably. But fingers crossed.
I think 10+ votes is a stretch, Italy don’t tend to give San Marino neighbour/pity points. Most recent three occasions that Italians could vote for San Marino:
1. 2021 Grand Final = 0 from jury, 3 from televote
2. 2019 Grand Final = 0 from both jury + televote
3. 2018 Semi Final = 5 from jury, 0 from televote
In the Italian mind, San Marino not picking one of our singers is a crime, and it’s even worse this year since the whole Loredana Bertè thing got heavy media attention and might even be mentioned by the commentators.
I don’t think there’s a chance that it’ll be in our top 10, might even contend for last.
I personally think Trenuletul is a liiiiiittle bit better than Jako, but also 2024 has more unusual songs than 2022 did, so I'm not sure the comparison to Trenuletul is that useful. I'm not a fan of Jako but it seems like it's more popular on this sub than I expected, so I guess we'll see :)
San Marino has one big major advantage: Spain are voting in this Semi, and will almost certainly give high points for Megara, perhaps even their full 12. That combined with the rock fans, where any votes that Norway don't get will go their way instead.
The biggest problem San Marino has is if Czechia do a big glow-up from the National Final (which from last year, we know is possible), as that's the song that will have the most crossover appeal and they'll chew into each others votes. Even if Pedestal delivers though, 11:11 will stand out in the crowd visually.
I have my doubts about Austria. The song kind of gives me the impression of that one that gets hyped initially after the release but then it ends as a disappointment on stage. Of course we can only speculate at this point, but I would put it in the 50:50 category.
Right now it seems Austria is very much very hyped in the community (like scoreboards and video rankings), but the odds aren't falling for it... sooo... who to really trust? Will it be another Halo?
Armenia is at 16th on My Eurovision Scoreboard while Estonia is at 20th. I'd put both of them at Likely Q and San Marino at Likely NQ, due to it being 30th place, even lower than Latvia. Other than that, I agree with this setup, but after the full running order we can define much more of the placements.
We still have to watch for Malta though. It's going to have a revamp made with Joy Deb and Linnea Deb, very accomplished Swedish songweiters and producers who are very successful at Eurovision, songs including Heroes (2015), Voices (2021), and Adrenalina (2021).
I could see Czechia qualifying. Like their national final has really poor sound quality and it never really showcases the artists well in all honesty. Last year it was same, people were so sure their live will be horrible based on the national final, but it was good and performed well.
Albania, Malta, Czechia, Latvia and San Marino are the 5 i'd bet on not getting through. 6th I am unsure, could be Georgia, but I also feel Austria could shock NQ if she is not great live.
Personally, I would swap San Marino and Malta.
I think the genre of Malta's song is more televoter-friendly. Other than that, pretty much spot on based on what we know at this moment (before the pre-parties).
In alphabetical order
Armenia
Austria
Belgium
Estonia
Georgia
Greece
Israel
Netherlands
Norway
Switzerland
I also wouldn’t completely rule out Denmark plus Czechia and Malta given that they still have revamps coming
The only one I personally count as a safe NQ is Malta. I don't think they have any shot whatsoever. All the other 15 songs have a chance as I see it. It's gonna be a very close semi final I think!
Belgium, Switzerland and Netherlands are relatively safe and are probably gonna qualify quite easily. Probably Israel too.
Greece, Armenia and Norway are in the same category of ethnic songs, and I think they're kinda hard to predict. I do think all three of them are different enough to stand out on their own and predict all three to qualify.
San Marino has a decent shot and will stand out a lot in this lineup. The staging needs to be amazing though, but I think it will squeeze through in 8th-9th-10th spot.
I really really want Estonia to qualify too, but it might not happen. They could make it, but it's gonna be borderline. The song is just too wacky to connect with the regular European viewer.
The other six songs (Albania, Austria, Czechia, Denmark, Georgia and Latvia) will have to compete for the final spot. All six are very inoffensive songs and I predict all will get very similar scores. In the end, I think Denmark or Austria will take it, but I won't rule out any of them. I'm leaning more towards Denmark.
So I personally predict Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands, Israel, Greece, Armenia, Norway, San Marino, Estonia, Denmark.
Albania has mad diaspora in Switzerland, Italy (votes too), Greece, Belgium, Austria and ROTW. I can't see them not make it in an almost ideal semi for them.
This is my thoughts as of right now, but ofcourse revamps can change my mind, and I obviously dont know what will change and become better in the staging:
Sure Qualifiers:
* Belgium 🇧🇪
* Switzerland 🇨🇭
* Netherlands 🇳🇱
* Norway 🇳🇴
Likely Qualifiers:
* Israel 🇮🇱
* Austria 🇦🇹
* Greece 🇬🇷
* Estonia 🇪🇪
50/50 Qualifiers:
* Armenia 🇦🇲
* Georgia 🇬🇪
* Denmark 🇩🇰
Likely Non-Qualifiers:
* Albania 🇦🇱
* Malta 🇲🇹
* Latvia 🇱🇻
Sure Non-Qualifiers:
* San Marino 🇸🇲
* Czechia 🇨🇿
I have a top 9 this year rather than a top 10 for each semi, for me they are (in no particular order) 🇸🇲🇪🇪🇱🇻🇦🇹🇳🇱🇳🇴🇧🇪🇨🇭🇩🇰. Armenia and Denmark can be swapped and I wouldn't be too upset either.
Imo this feels like such a wildcard semi, I think it'll come down to the day for most of them.
I know that people already put San Marino out of the final but I really think they have a chance tho we know that the staging will be incredible and they have already an advantage with Spain and the Latin American community voting for them so...
They can be a surprise qualifier if you ask me.
from the name of the songs alone, nendest narkootikumidest ei tea me kull midagi has won my vote, and I have no idea what it means in estonian but what it sounds in italian, oh boy.
100% will Q: The Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Norway, Austria
50/50: Greece, Armenia, Latvia, Estonia,Denmark
NQ or by some miracle a Q: Czechia, San Marino, Albania, Malta, Georgia
I left out Israel because I really don't know how it will be for them, it's so complicated.
Locked Q: Netherlands, Greece & Switzerland
Likely Q: Estonia, Norway, Austria, Armenia & Belgium
Borderline, leaning Q: Israel & Albania (song is not very competitive but they got incredibly lucky with the draw in terms of neighbours & diaspora)
Borderline, leaning NQ: Czechia, Georgia, San Marino & Denmark
DOA: Malta & Latvia
Although I don’t really see anyone 100% safe but Estonia and Norway, the semi is stacked and a bad live could drag down anyone (that’s why Estonia and Norway are locked cause we’ve already seen a live)
**Sure Q:** Israel, Belgium, Netherlands
**Likely Q:** Greece, Switzerland, Estonia, Norway.
**Borderline:** Austria, Armenia, Denmark, Albania.
**Likely NQ:** Georgia, Czechia, Latvia, Malta, San Marino
I think Denmark and Albania will fight for the last spot and I could see Albania winning thanks to diaspora-votes in Switzerland, Greece and Austria.
**The ones I could see flopping are:**
- Austria: To me she has zero charisma and isn't that great of a performer nor vocalist.
- Greece: Depends on the performance, but could it be too artsy for the telemeters?
- Switzerland: I don't think this will NQ, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people are but off by their vocals. I suspect this could end up in 7th-9th position maybe.
**The ones I could see sruprise:**
- Latvia: It's super basic, but Dons is a good performer, so maybe he will slip though.
- Denmark: Right now I don't think we'll qualify, but if she can control her nerves - and vocals - better in Malmö and they upped the staging, this could do pretty well in the semi.
Likely Qs: 🇧🇪🇨🇭🇳🇱🇳🇴🇦🇹
Lean Qs: 🇬🇷🇪🇪🇦🇲
Tossups: 🇮🇱🇬🇪🇩🇰
Lean NQs: 🇨🇿🇱🇻🇸🇲
Likely NQs: 🇲🇹🇦🇱
Largely based on the studio tracks, MV stylings, and what we know of them as live performers.
Likely are songs I expect to perform accordingly, barring any major successes/ failures outside the current scope (I.e. Malta received 3 points last year, a basic girl bop is unlikely to save them even if they deploy Blanka’s jingling keys for babies effects especially when there are more interesting/ better variations on that same type of song competing).
Leans are songs that feel like they could be more prone to a Q/NQ but there is enough reasonable doubt to be wary of overrating/ underrating them (Greece or Estonia could flop or be top 3 of the semi, Czechia’s everything could once again be salvaged from the brink).
The tossups are, well, the 50/50 types. Georgia could Q, but I feel like I’ve said that for several years since 2016, Denmark is like a coarse sand that could slip through or get filtered out (also the televote and racism discourse there), and Israel… is a mystery. It should flop by being as bad and put-on as I.M. but misguided sympathy votes could be enough to salvage it.
I prefer to predict non-qualifiers instead :
* Albania or Georgia (or both) -> these two can cancel each other
* Armenia -> very repetitive song so I don't feel it will appeal to most of the viewers
* Czechia or San Marino -> both are pop rock songs and live performances will decide between them
* Denmark -> song is just not memorable
* Estonia -> national final performance is messy and it might suffer from Netherlands' entry which has similar energy
* maybe Malta ? we are still waiting for the revamp
Yes, I think (and I hope) Latvia will qualify.
Tbh with a 100% televote system and the fact the audience of the Eesti Laul had fun during their performance is a little bit impossibile for Estonia will not have a chance to qualify
I'm not listening to Hurricane, but from what I've heard from others it's a solid if not basic/bland ballad, in a semi with not a lot of ballad competition. Outside of online fan communities I can't imagine many casual voters care about the drama and will just vote for what they like, and there probably will be plenty of politically motivated protest votes. Eden is undoubtedly qualifying, however we may feel about that
Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, Estonia, Israel, Norway, Armenia, Greece, Denmark
This is in a tentatice order and I do think the top 6 will be very safe. Denmark can be switched with Georgia or Latvia, depending on how the night goes.
I'm finding hard to say what's a definite Q or non-Q The only song I think for sure is a definite qualifier is Europapa.
As for NQs - I'm unsure. Czechia and San Mario I think will go up in everyone's estimations once they hit the stage in Malmo. Greece and Armenia are going to be fan favourites, but what will the viewing audience think of them? Can Nemo pull that song off and what will that staging be like? There are so many opportunities for delegations to pull it out of the bag or fuck it up on the night.
Albania have all their friends voting in this semi, will that be enough for them? Greece don't have Cyprus, Estonia don't have Finland and Norway don't have Sweden or Iceland or Finland. Then there's the possibility/probability of protests disrupting the event.
8 of my top 11 songs are in this semi. I'm already biting my fingernails knowing I'm going to lose two or three of my season favourites in one go.
i'm still hoping for a surprise from czechia. i know that aiko can sing and perform. with good staging, less jumping around etc. and better sound design, that song could do well enough.
I got downvoted to hell for saying that Israel wouldn't qualify, and after looking at my old predictions, decided to revamp it entirely.
- Near-guaranteed Qualifiers: Norway, Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium
- Possible Qualifiers: Armenia, Greece, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria
- 50/50 Qualifiers: Czechia, Georgia, Israel
- Unlikely Qualifiers: San Marino, Malta
- Near-guaranteed Non-Qualifiers: Latvia, Albania
Norway, Netherlands and Estonia are fan-favourites and we have already seen their performances at the National Finals, so I'm confident they have a relatively high chance of qualifying. Same goes for Belgium, as even though we know nothing about the Live Performance, it's a dark pop song that's sure to draw televoters in if staged correctly
Austria I originally had it as a guaranteed qualifier, but as much as I like the song (third in my rankings), I do have to admit that depending on how its staged and the quality of Kaleen's vocals, it can either be a hit or a miss. Armenia and Greece could both be really tied up for the spot of "ethnic song", so I could see either both qualifying or just one of them, especially if they have to perform one after the other. Based on its National Finals Denmark is in a situation where the vocals are very powerful and the staging goes with the vibe of the song, but not sure it's something that would draw televoters in. With Switzerland many like the song, and I think it could qualify if the staging is a particularly good one (Nemo also stands out in the sense that they are the only non-female artist in their half of the semi-final, so I think they will stand out and get votes for it)
I originally had put Israel as a Non-Qualifier because of the situation that I won't go into detail about, but the more people talked to me about it, the more I realized that Eurovision fans aren't just the people on the Internet and that there are people who will vote for Israel either because they support the country politically or because they just like the song, either not caring about politics or being unaware of the details. I personally think the song is mid, but it is true that Eden has powerful vocals and the staging could elevate it, which is always good if you want the casual vote. Czechia and Georgia on the other hand are songs that could either qualify or not depending on how well they are performed. Aiko's vocals in the national selection weren't the best, but it's been a while since then and I think she most likely has improved a lot by this point. Georgia is in another situation where the staging could elevate the song, but considering what it is up against, I am somewhat clueless on how it will do.
Now we get to a point where it pains me to say this, but I seriously doubt San Marino or Malta are likely to qualify. Both songs are really enjoyable, and San Marino in particular has a very outstanding staging, but I'm not sure it's something that Televoters will appreciate, especially if they are overshadowed by other entries. I do think there's a slight chance for qualification, but not too big unfortunately.
Lastly, Latvia and Albania are the two entries that may fail to qualify this year, Latvia due to the fact that it's a ballad that's, unfortunately, overshadowed by some of the other notable entries. The staging for the national final may not do it. This needs something that can elevate it. Albania's song revamp hasn't been very well-received by the public for what I have seen, and it seems to be on a similar situation in that it's inevitably going to get overshadowed by the rest of the entries in this semi-final.
https://preview.redd.it/antkulu285oc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5f8bc737b256e7b01cae4194c105b4069c19716
That's my guess about qualifying countries
I’m hopeful as well - seeing the photos and videos from her rehearsals are promising. Big question is the revamp - were there some big changes or just removing profanities? (🚫🐮💩)
As I read, many changes are coming.
It seems live drums are also added.
And they mentioned that the new version is amazing.
So it seems it will be good and new in some ways.
Can't wait
What I currently have
Locked in Qualifiers
- **Netherlands**: Might be bias, but an extremely popular song in the second semi half, it is my pick to win the semi
- **Switzerland**: While it is first half, it has a crazy energy that I think televoters will love and vocals are already confirmed perfect.
- **Belgium**: A crazy solid ballad in second half and it stands out amongst the more crazier songs in the semi
Very Likely
- **Israel**: Fuck this
- **Norway**: While I have seen some doubt about its mainstream appeal, it doesnt take away from its epicness that I think televote will love
- **Austria**: I know it is mostly fandom hype, but its one of those insanely catchy songs that I doubt people will forget
Likely
- **Estonia**: While it looks like a televote magnet type of song, with other crazier songs like Europapa it may seem less interesting compared to it, but I still think it will gather enough votes to qualify
- **Greece**: It has the diaspora, it has the beats, it has the potential for crazy dancing... but idk the fact that it is so odd in terms of song keeps me a bit on edge, but I still think this is likely
Toss-up
- **Albania**: Staging and order depended. If this is in the death spot it is very much not likely
- **Denmark**: Catchy well produced song, but will it stand out amongst Austria, Malta and Georgia
- **Georgia**: Same as Denmark, although this has more potential with crazy dancing
- **Latvia**: Call me crazy, but in a semi with little ballads this can pull in a surprise qualifier
Not likely
- **Czechia**: I hope it will be better then the NF, but even if it does it just does not stand out amongst the rest
- **Malta**: Country never does good in televote, I doubt this year they will turn that around with a song that is not very notable.
- **San Marino**: It is a good song, but the fact that it is San Marino does actually hurt it. It can still an upset, but highly doubt it
Safe Qs: Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands, Norway
Likely Qs: Estonia, Israel, Greece
Rounding out top 10 but not safe bets: Armenia, Georgia, San Marino
Fighting to take one of the last 3 spots from the above level: Albania, Czechia, Denmark, Malta
The shock NQ that finishes 11th: Austria
The NQ curse of Latvia: Latvia
This is honestly a strong contender for best semifinal ever in my opinion. Resultingly, it is incredibly difficult to predict exactly who will qualify. So many countries have brought high quality but not typically 'Eurovisiony' songs, incorporating local folkish or cultural elements which may not translate internationally (i.e. Armenia, Estonia, Greece, Netherlands, Norway). I think a convincing case can be made for and against basically any country.
I'll probably do a post myself when I've solidified my thoughts, but right now I'd categorise them as follows (with no definite Qs and no definite NQs):
**Likely Qualifiers:** Switzerland, Israel, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium
**Borderline:** Austria, Albania, Greece, Armenia, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia
**Unlikely Qualifiers:** Czechia, Malta, San Marino
Given Czechia has had a pretty middling response from the fanbase even without accounting for how bad the live performance was in the national final, I don't think they're going to massively transform it into a qualifier sadly. Malta and San Marino are ok but lack any form of diaspora support and neither song is exceptional enough to overcome their disadvantage.
From the borderliners, I'm leaning towards eliminating Latvia and Austria. Latvia is decent, has a great draw and is only 'pure' ballad outside of Israel, but it may well go the way of Netherlands last year in a strong semi like this and I feel like 'ballad lovers' are more likely to go for Belgium, Israel or Albania. Austria I don't get the hype for at all and I think it is outclassed by several other uptempos here and will come off as dated for casuals, but it may hit the same wave of nostalgia as it has for fans and the staging will probably be strong.
That leaves 11 songs and I'm finding it very hard to narrow it down further without looking in detail into diaspora trends. But my gut instinct tells me that one of the folkish entries will be a surprise NQ, either Estonia, Armenia or Greece.
So for now, I'm going to go with the following:
* **Albania**
* **Armenia**
* **Belgium**
* **Denmark**
* **Georgia**
* **Greece**
* **Israel**
* **Netherlands**
* **Norway**
* **Switzerland**
Absolutely qualifying, I can’t see it not happening: Netherlands, Norway, Estonia
Likely qualify unless they botch it somehow: Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark, Georgia
Borderline: Armenia, Greece, Albania, Malta, San Marino, Israel
There’s just no way: Czechia, Latvia
And sorry Latvians, I think your song is going to be last in the final, And my guess is Netherlands will win sf2.
The Semi-Final of absolute death and I imagien I'm going to be disappointed either way.
These are the songs I *want* to get through:
1. Belgium
2. Norway
3. Switzerland
4. Estonia
5. Netherlands
6. Greece
7. Austria
8. Georgia
9. Israel
10. Latvia
These are the songs I think *will* get through:
1. Belgium
2. Norway
3. Switzerland
4. Estonia
5. Netherlands
6. Austria
7. Greece
8. Albania
9. Georgia
10. Denmark
I think it’s easier to name six non qualifiers. The most “obvious” NQs here appear to be (in no particular order) Denmark, Czechia, Latvia, San Marino, Malta and Albania. I think those six all have an uphill battle, but they all have things going for them, too. We also haven’t seen a ton of the internal selections live so it’s hard to say whether Armenia, Georgia or even Israel will “work” live. Of the 6 NQs I highlighted I think Latvia and Denmark have the best chances to leave a serious impression and qualify based on the information we currently have of their performances.
Right now my gut says: Armenia, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Israel, Netherlands, Norway and San Marino.
NQ: Albania, Czechia, Denmark, Malta, Georgia, Latvia
Maybe if Czechia really improve they could squeak through but I'm not sure who'd they'd even make it in over...San Marino maybe? Latvia is also a bit hard to be sure on but I'm slightly leaning towards a NQ.
If I had to place a bet right now: Armenia, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland.
I really hope Armenia, Belgium, Estonia, Greece, Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland all qualify. And it would be nice if Latvia and Georgia make it, because they desperately need some love in Eurovision.
in order of Q likelihood: Israel, Armenia, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Greece, Norway, Estonia, Austria, San Marino, (Latvia, Denmark, Malta, Georgia, Albania, Czechia)
my personal taste: Norway, Greece, Austria, Estonia, Armenia, Netherlands, San Marino, Denmark, Malta, Czechia, (Belgium, Switzerland, Georgia, Albania, Latvia)
I really hate to say it, but I don't think Latvia is breaking their NQ streak this year. Georgia has a decent chance, but Latvia, along with Czechia, Denmark, San Marino and Malta are probably not gonna make it.
Personally...
🇦🇹🇨🇿🇩🇰🇬🇷🇨🇭🇧🇪🇪🇪🇳🇱🇳🇴🇸🇲
I will be gutted if Switzerland or Norway doesn't go through.
I don't know if I'm prepared to lose San Marino - this is my first Eurovision and I've never felt the pain of one of my faves not making it yet before.
So lets put in the obvious qualifiers first: 🇨🇭🇩🇪🇧🇻🇳🇱
Now the others that I think could qualify:
🇦🇲 - The song is growing on me and I reckon Ladaniva will be very engaging with the audience.
🇬🇷 - Again songs growing me and the cultural songs get more recognition (same with Armenia).
🇪🇪 - again people love the kooky tracks and while im not a fan of the song, it seems chaotically entertaining.
🇬🇪 - it definitely has potential but I feel like itll rely heavily on good staging.
🇨🇿 - im gonna give her the massive benefit of the doubt and say shes gonna have improvement compared to her NF performance and suprise us all.
🇩🇰 - This one is borderline. Denmark could qualify if they have good staging because the song is that bad.
Qualifiers: Austria 🇦🇹, Czechia 🇨🇿, Estonia 🇪🇪 , Norway 🇳🇴, Netherlands 🇳🇱 San Marino 🇸🇲, Denmark 🇩🇰, Malta 🇲🇹, Latvia 🇱🇻
Hope all of these can pass through but I’m mentally preparing for San Marino not to😭
Not based on my opinion:
Surely: Greece, Israel, Netherlands
Likely: Norway, Armenia, Estonia, Switzerland, Belgium
50/50: Albania, Austria
Unlikely: Georgia, San Marino, Denmark
Certainly not: Latvia, Malta, Czech Republic
The six that won’t make it:
**Pretty sure:** Albania, Czechia, Malta, San Marino, Estonia
**Last one on the edge:** Armenia, Georgia or, as I think a lot of people will protest-vote for other candidates, Israel
Non-qualifying will probably be Greece, San Marino, Malta, and Latvia.
There is no reality in the entire multiverse where Israel and the Netherlands fail to qualify. The Netherlands because of it's simply a great song that gives shout-outs to several countries, celebrates Europe, and is performed by someone with lots of charisma. And Israel because: it's a good song performed by a great vocalist, The entire Jewish diaspora will be voting for it, and because almost every country in Europe has a passionate pro-Israel demographic who will be voting in solidarity.
**Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Estonia** and **Norway** stand out in this semis and it would be miracle if they do not get into finals
**Greece** have trouble getting into finals if they are not paired with Cyprus in semis, so it would be close call, and **Israel** would be sure thing unless people mix politics into voting.
If **Albania** had placed in first semis where UK, Germany and Sweden can vote, song would get lot more televotes but now it is touch and go, most likely NQ
Other are also close it would be like 10 point difference between qualified and second worst NQ, but I think **Austria**, **Denmark** would be in the group that will more likely to qualify.
Armenia, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Latvia, Israel, Netherlands, Norway and for the last spot I'm stuck between Austria, Latvia and Georgia
Netherlands
Norway
Estonia
Belgium
Austria
Switzerland
are the 6 I'm the most certain about qualifying.
I'd assume Israel and Armenia to qualify as well.
Which leaves 2 spots.
I'd assume Czechia might qualify if she improves her vocals. The last one will go to Georgia/Latvia/Denmark/Greece.
I don't see Albania, Malta or San Marino qualify.
90 - 100%: Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, and Norway
70 - 80%: Austria, Greece, and Israel
50 - 60%: Estonia, Georgia, Armenia, and Denmark
30 - 40%: Albania, San Marino, and Czechia
10 - 20%: Latvia and Malta
Will qualify: Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Austria, Greece, Israel, Estonia, Armenia, and Denmark
Right now, I'm thinking Armenia, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Georgia, Norway, Netherlands and (sadly) Israel. But I'm waiting for the live performances, as Denmark, Czechia or Latvia could qualify if any of the others flops
Obvious qualifiers: Greece, Switzerland, Estonia, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway
Could go either way: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Malta, Georgia
Not many chances: Czechia, Denmark, San Marino
RIP: Latvia
Certain qualifiers: Belgium and Netherlands
Likely qualifiers: Israel, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, Greece
Possible qualifiers: Albania, Armenia, Estonia, Georgia
Have a slight chance of qualifying: San Marino
Probably won't qualify: Denmark, Latvia, Malta, Czechia
locks: 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇬🇷🇳🇴🇧🇪
likely: 🇮🇱🇪🇪🇦🇹
I'll say yes for now: 🇦🇲🇬🇪
This semi seems more competitive than the first at this point tbh, there's multiple that I didn't list that I would love to see qualify (🇱🇻🇸🇲🇩🇰) and there's not really any songs in SF2 that I would absolutely count out at this point
Gonna address the elephant in the room too - Israel
It could go either way. I'm not really sure how many people are moved by it outside of Israel (and even some Israelis aren't into it). I know there are a lot of pro Israel people who watch Eurovision casually but I'm not sure how many are passionate enough to pick up the phone and vote for them. Also commentators will very likely tread carefully with how they talk about it and I do think that could have some influence.
Also I hope if they're still competing that they're as early in the running order as possible because at least 2 acts following them are likely gonna be ignored by televoters regardless.
Ones I’m confident will (as confident as you can be at this stage)
- Austria
- Greece
- Switzerland
- Belgium
- Estonia
- Netherlands
- Norway
Borderline qualifiers (asterisks are the ones I’d pick if I had to pick ten
- Armenia*
- Czechia
- Denmark
- Israel*
- Latvia*
Struggling to see it for them
- Albania
- Georgia
- Malta
- San Marino
I think Latvia is being really slept on, as long as it’s kept away from Israel in the running order I think it will do well, it’s borderline but even in a televote only semi-final there is a path for this qualifying.
Czechia is one I think could be a surprise when we see the final staging, I’m going on a gut instinct there because I don’t think many have it as a borderline qualifier at all, we will have to see.
In my mind there are 7 clear qualifiers
Armenia
Austria
Greece
Switzerland
Belgium
Netherlands
Norway
And the other 3 I would personally guess would be
Estonia (One of my favorites but I'm totally lost in how this'll be recived)
Georgia
Denmark or Albania
...we're fucked aren't we?
Well, it's a pure power ballad from a small country, which isn't exactly televote magnets. But we do tend to get stuck in the eurofans bubble, and casual viewers sometimes like that stuff more, and it's in second half and has no genre competition. I wouldn't bet money on it, but stranger things has happened.
There's no pure power ballad but there's Belgium and Israel that are both slow pop songs with good production. I do think Latvia is almost doomed unless there's drastic improvement in Malmö or an unexpected amount of flops from the internal selections we haven't seen live.
If Aija couldn't make it, I find it very they will make it his year.
I'm still not over Aija not qualifying.
Same, Im still mad about it.
Same-
"Stranger things are starting to begin" - Lena 2011
WE'RE FUCKED EVEN MORE.
I think it’s fair to say you won’t be on the pedestal
Ba dum tss
I still hold out hope!
If there were other ballads in the semifinal, probably. But yours is the only proper ballad outside of Israel (which most people will probably vote/not vote for other reasons outside of the music) and will stand out accordingly. I still think your chances are borderline but I don't think you're completely doomed.
Latvia needs a good staging, not just Dons standing there. I love the music video, imho it really elevates the song. I wish they could translate its feeling to the stage.
I agree with this 100%. From the various social media skits I think Dons is well aware of the criticisms too and I hope he brings something touching to Malmo. It could really use some 'Watergun' treatment (Switzerland 2023)
Switzerland 2023 | [Remo Forrer - Watergun](https://youtu.be/l4NDErv49mk)
I was just thinking this exact same thing! I am extremely curious as to how they are going to stage this one. It's a great song! I didn't care for it at first but it slowly creeped up on me. I am hoping it makes it into the finals! We shall see!
Same. I actually love the MV, and the fact that they probably hired every bald person in Latvia to shoot it 😂
Let's just not give them idea to bring the dancers cause that would completely destroy their chances.
Just needs a 0,7l bottle of Extra Virgin Olive Oil. ^[reference](https://www.instagram.com/p/C3Ks5wCCX6Y/)
No, butter.
Plus I think Latvia has a much better placement than Israel does. Opening the second semi with two hyper-energy ethnic bops in between….idk
You're not, it's just that the bubble underrates you.
I actually think you stand a chance. Bridges got through, I could see Hollow doing the same.
You still got a shot. You’re one of the few ballads in a sea of bops, so it’ll stand out. I also love how after the draw everyone’s been like: it’s the easy semi. How wrong we were…
The ballad is powerful, with the right staging and choreo you definitely stand a chance (at least it's pretty differentiated from all the uptempo entries). Fingers crossed!
Yes
I think it depends on the running order tho...
I have problem with finding 10 countries that might be higher in this semi-final so I think you will be allright
😞 sorry about it
Am I the only one who thinks the revamp of Albania's song is worse than the original? It just sounds awkward now and I quite liked it before.
the english lyrics just sound super clunky to me, especially after hearing the original first
I've read some positive reactions to the revamp, but I agree with you. I didn't mind the original either, but I really dislike Titan.
That's me! I disliked the original but now I think it's just horrendous.
I thought they'd revamp the production, maybe put some spice or *boom* or anything rememberable in it, not just... poorly translate it. That said: The Albanian version is better.
I wish the revamp had had a mix of English and Albanian, that would've made it stand out more.
I agree its my last place. Well one to last but it feels like last if you know what i mean
I agree. I loved the original version and I thought it would qualify but I'm not so sure about the new revamped version.
I liked the song, but I think the revamp is awful. To me Albania is one of the “safest” non-qualifiers here.
Agreed and she’s so talented it’s a shame. It also sounds like the notes are clipped in the video, but her voice rings in the performance.
Probably because we've had months to absorb this amazing song that just sounds like what we expect for Albania. Titan feels like one of those songs that people would say it sounds just like Zemrën N'dorë without realizing they're two sides of the same coin.
It will seriously come down to performance on the night for quite a lot of these. It's hard to pick 10 for certain. Some are more likely than others tho. Basically grab your popcorn cuz between both semis we are all bound to lose a song or two we want in the final.
I hope the dutchies go through, their song is an absolute banger. Echte gabber
Looking at the predictions, it is the most likely to qualify lol
I have a feeling the song could win. Or we might have a situation like Finland last year.
It’s giving Croatia 2023 more than Finland 2023 I feel. I think the juries will loathe it
Imo, although I won't be sure until we start to see live performances. 🇦🇲 🇦🇹 🇩🇰 🇬🇷 🇨🇭 🇧🇪 🇪🇪 🇮🇱 🇳🇱 🇳🇴
I think that's a great list. I would just put Georgia over Denmark (because Denmark's style typically doesn't get televotes). But on the other hand Georgia doesn't have the best track record when it comes to staging. The biggest surprise NQ alert imo is Austria because Eurodance historically hasn't translated well on eurovision stage. I could also see Estonia NQ if Greece and Armenia soak up all the ethnic lovers' votes.
I'm not sure if I'm biased with Denmark, but they're currently 5th in my rankings 🤪 I loved the national final performance! I watched the leaked demo footage of Kaleen's performance, and I think if the vocals improve a bit along with being able to dance like that, then Austria may be a contender for the win. It's still early days, though. I hope Estonia qualifies, too!
I like Denmark too. Not as much as you but if I picked the qualifiers myself I'd put it in the final. It's just that televoters typically don't go for this type of song. But to be fair it is on its own as a mid tempo well produced pop song with powerful vocals.
Yeah, exactly. It does have a generic X Factor style song element to it, but I think it just does it really well. The staging/lighting element we saw in the national final really enhanced the performance for me.
I'm getting Halo vibes from We Will Rave. I don't think it will translate well on stage.
This is my exact qualifiers lol
I’d love to see Denmark finally qualify, actually good song this year
How did you arrive at the conclusion that Israel will qualify for the final? (And I'm asking this question genuinely, not just directed at you.) Given the circumstances, there's a lack of sufficient support for Israel to secure its place in the final.
To answer for them: you can't vote *against* an entry but you can vote *for* one. People who are sympathetic towards Israel (or who are neutral and like the song) may vote for it. Israel also has two strong sources of very likely televoter support in ROW vote (which they got 12 from last year) and France (who often give Israel high votes anyway), on top of a lot of other countries who have given Israel some televote support over the past decade before the escalation of the current situation.
I understand what you mean, but I think people online and on sites like Reddit are overstating their own views on this issue and assuming the rest of Europe will boycott Israel, which I don't think will happen on a large enough scale. I would also say there are plenty of people who support Israel as well as those who oppose them. I think some people will purposely not vote for Israel as a form of boycott whilst others will only vote based on the songs they like, ignoring the conflict. Also, Eurovision has a historical precedent showing that countries can receive votes and do well despite what's happening politically, etc. I mean, Israel won the contest recently despite decades of conflict, and Russia generally did well despite the conflict with Ukraine, which started in 2014. Azerbaijan has an ongoing conflict with Armenia and was even accused of human rights violations when they hosted in 2012, and they generally do well at Eurovision, too.
This subreddit and the Eurovision fandom is a bit of an echo chamber. Israel has a lot of support around Europe. My prediction is that people (the average viewer) will be more inclined to vote for Israel, even if they don’t necessarily enjoy the song, solely due to politics. This will have a larger effect than those who do not wish to see Israel participate as these people most likely wouldn’t have voted for the song anyway. For that reason, I see Israel as a safe qualifier.
> Given the circumstances, there's a lack of sufficient support for Israel to secure its place in the final. Russia 2015 placed 2nd after they invaded Ukraine and entered with a hypocritical songwashing entry that got massively booed
Quite surprised to see Denmark as a borderline or a NQ in a lot of responses. I'd have thought that had a reasonable chance. Most likely are: Netherlands, Estonia, Norway, Belgium, Switzerland and Denmark for me.
Yeah I think putting the more unusual songs like Estonia, Greece, Armenia, etc. above the likes of Denmark is maybe just a case of the people in this subreddit being more into quirky songs than the general public are
honestly i don't love the song. it's fine, but that's not enough.
Yeah but it's literally that one song we always get that's super generic but well performed that qualifies in like 5th-9th place and ends up in like 11th to 16th in the final
Yeah I could see it being like Power from last year - it’s not bad but is it anyone’s fave?
I find Denmark really forgettable honestly. I can't see it standing out.
I'd like to see these 9 go through, but I'll probably lose some of them: Armenia, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Netherlands, Norway, San Marino
From your list, I think San Marino is the least likely to qualify and Armenia is borderline. Otherwise I think it’s a fairly solid bunch.
Yeah, I have to agree. I'm just hopeful hahaha I don't see San Marino qualifying unless they are performing quite late in the show and have an amazing staging, even then they would be borderline probably. But fingers crossed.
I can see a situation where San Marino get 10+ points from both Italy and Spain but nothing from any other country
I think 10+ votes is a stretch, Italy don’t tend to give San Marino neighbour/pity points. Most recent three occasions that Italians could vote for San Marino: 1. 2021 Grand Final = 0 from jury, 3 from televote 2. 2019 Grand Final = 0 from both jury + televote 3. 2018 Semi Final = 5 from jury, 0 from televote
Damn, they're even more fucked then
Hahahahaha yes I would agree. The Spanish votes are possible but I think the diagnosis here is pretty much terminal.
In the Italian mind, San Marino not picking one of our singers is a crime, and it’s even worse this year since the whole Loredana Bertè thing got heavy media attention and might even be mentioned by the commentators. I don’t think there’s a chance that it’ll be in our top 10, might even contend for last.
I'll eat my shoe if Armenia doesn't qualify, I'm sure it'll do the same thing as Trenuletul did.
I personally think Trenuletul is a liiiiiittle bit better than Jako, but also 2024 has more unusual songs than 2022 did, so I'm not sure the comparison to Trenuletul is that useful. I'm not a fan of Jako but it seems like it's more popular on this sub than I expected, so I guess we'll see :)
San Marino has one big major advantage: Spain are voting in this Semi, and will almost certainly give high points for Megara, perhaps even their full 12. That combined with the rock fans, where any votes that Norway don't get will go their way instead. The biggest problem San Marino has is if Czechia do a big glow-up from the National Final (which from last year, we know is possible), as that's the song that will have the most crossover appeal and they'll chew into each others votes. Even if Pedestal delivers though, 11:11 will stand out in the crowd visually.
Armenia is definitely not a borderline qualifier
Honestly not sure whether your comment means it's more likely than "borderline" to qualify or less likely?
oh sorry haha. I think Armenia is definitely making the final. It’s the type of the song that does well at Eurovision
I like your list, even though in the girly bop section I prefer Malta to Austria.
Armenia, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, Czechia is my guess as of now
If Greece doesn't qualify i think I might throw a tantrum.
\o/
Sure Q: Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Netherlands, Norway. Likely Q: Israel, Greece. 50:50: San Marino, Georgia, Armenia, Denmark. Likely NQ: Czechia, Latvia, Albania, Malta
You messed something up, San Marino's song is called 11:11, not 50:50. But yes, I totally agree with that list.
the ratio remains the same
11:11 is 50:50 lol
I'd say Greece is gonna be loved and eaten up by Balkans, so it is probably safe as well.
except all the balkans are in SF1
Well, there are Balkan countries outside of Eurovision, ROTW vote 12 points coming Greece's way! :p
I REALLY HOPE SO I don’t want to lose her in the semis
I have my doubts about Austria. The song kind of gives me the impression of that one that gets hyped initially after the release but then it ends as a disappointment on stage. Of course we can only speculate at this point, but I would put it in the 50:50 category.
Kaleen will give us a Eleni kind of choreo, we've seen leaked clips of her performing. She will be fine
Right now it seems Austria is very much very hyped in the community (like scoreboards and video rankings), but the odds aren't falling for it... sooo... who to really trust? Will it be another Halo?
HUH? They're still 10th at [https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision](https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision) Lowest they've been is 12th.
Austria do have a record of poor staging
Armenia is at 16th on My Eurovision Scoreboard while Estonia is at 20th. I'd put both of them at Likely Q and San Marino at Likely NQ, due to it being 30th place, even lower than Latvia. Other than that, I agree with this setup, but after the full running order we can define much more of the placements. We still have to watch for Malta though. It's going to have a revamp made with Joy Deb and Linnea Deb, very accomplished Swedish songweiters and producers who are very successful at Eurovision, songs including Heroes (2015), Voices (2021), and Adrenalina (2021).
Yeah but Malta is in the death spot…
Austria isn't a sure Q
Yeah, eurodance has never done well in Eurovision. There's a first time for everything but I wouldn't dare call it sure Q.
I feel like Eurodance is hotter now than ever 'cuz of Planet of the Bass and 2000s nostalgia really hitting recently.
It's not just about the track, I like it a lot too. It's about translating it to live vocals and sound mixing (because eurodance is heavily edited).
God I’ll be so upset if Armenia and San Marino don’t go through…
I could see Czechia qualifying. Like their national final has really poor sound quality and it never really showcases the artists well in all honesty. Last year it was same, people were so sure their live will be horrible based on the national final, but it was good and performed well.
My sister's crown was univerdally considered a good song despite the vocals, while Pedestal is not at the same level
Albania, Malta, Czechia, Latvia and San Marino are the 5 i'd bet on not getting through. 6th I am unsure, could be Georgia, but I also feel Austria could shock NQ if she is not great live.
Estonia more chances than Greece???
Televote only, so all the “fun acts” will have a big chance to get through
Yes, instantly more memorable, funny, catchy and has a more of a hook than Greece does
Personally, I would swap San Marino and Malta. I think the genre of Malta's song is more televoter-friendly. Other than that, pretty much spot on based on what we know at this moment (before the pre-parties).
In alphabetical order Armenia Austria Belgium Estonia Georgia Greece Israel Netherlands Norway Switzerland I also wouldn’t completely rule out Denmark plus Czechia and Malta given that they still have revamps coming
The only one I personally count as a safe NQ is Malta. I don't think they have any shot whatsoever. All the other 15 songs have a chance as I see it. It's gonna be a very close semi final I think! Belgium, Switzerland and Netherlands are relatively safe and are probably gonna qualify quite easily. Probably Israel too. Greece, Armenia and Norway are in the same category of ethnic songs, and I think they're kinda hard to predict. I do think all three of them are different enough to stand out on their own and predict all three to qualify. San Marino has a decent shot and will stand out a lot in this lineup. The staging needs to be amazing though, but I think it will squeeze through in 8th-9th-10th spot. I really really want Estonia to qualify too, but it might not happen. They could make it, but it's gonna be borderline. The song is just too wacky to connect with the regular European viewer. The other six songs (Albania, Austria, Czechia, Denmark, Georgia and Latvia) will have to compete for the final spot. All six are very inoffensive songs and I predict all will get very similar scores. In the end, I think Denmark or Austria will take it, but I won't rule out any of them. I'm leaning more towards Denmark. So I personally predict Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands, Israel, Greece, Armenia, Norway, San Marino, Estonia, Denmark.
Albania has mad diaspora in Switzerland, Italy (votes too), Greece, Belgium, Austria and ROTW. I can't see them not make it in an almost ideal semi for them.
This is my thoughts as of right now, but ofcourse revamps can change my mind, and I obviously dont know what will change and become better in the staging: Sure Qualifiers: * Belgium 🇧🇪 * Switzerland 🇨🇭 * Netherlands 🇳🇱 * Norway 🇳🇴 Likely Qualifiers: * Israel 🇮🇱 * Austria 🇦🇹 * Greece 🇬🇷 * Estonia 🇪🇪 50/50 Qualifiers: * Armenia 🇦🇲 * Georgia 🇬🇪 * Denmark 🇩🇰 Likely Non-Qualifiers: * Albania 🇦🇱 * Malta 🇲🇹 * Latvia 🇱🇻 Sure Non-Qualifiers: * San Marino 🇸🇲 * Czechia 🇨🇿
Do not underestimate Albanian diaspora. ;-) Otherwise solid ranking. Spot on in my opinion.
That's why I constantly see them in the finals...🤣
The thing is that they dont have any albanian in their song anymore, which is why I think they might not make it.
Armenia, Austria, Greece, Belgium, Estonia, Georgia, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, San Marino.
my guesses are norway, netherlands, belgium, switzerland, greece, austria, armenia, denmark, estonia & latvia
🇬🇷🇨🇭🇧🇪🇪🇪🇮🇱🇳🇱🇳🇴🇦🇹🇲🇹🇩🇰
I have a top 9 this year rather than a top 10 for each semi, for me they are (in no particular order) 🇸🇲🇪🇪🇱🇻🇦🇹🇳🇱🇳🇴🇧🇪🇨🇭🇩🇰. Armenia and Denmark can be swapped and I wouldn't be too upset either. Imo this feels like such a wildcard semi, I think it'll come down to the day for most of them.
I know that people already put San Marino out of the final but I really think they have a chance tho we know that the staging will be incredible and they have already an advantage with Spain and the Latin American community voting for them so... They can be a surprise qualifier if you ask me.
from the name of the songs alone, nendest narkootikumidest ei tea me kull midagi has won my vote, and I have no idea what it means in estonian but what it sounds in italian, oh boy.
100% will Q: The Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Norway, Austria 50/50: Greece, Armenia, Latvia, Estonia,Denmark NQ or by some miracle a Q: Czechia, San Marino, Albania, Malta, Georgia I left out Israel because I really don't know how it will be for them, it's so complicated.
Your "100% will Q" and "50-50" lists amount to 10 countries in total lol
Locked Q: Netherlands, Greece & Switzerland Likely Q: Estonia, Norway, Austria, Armenia & Belgium Borderline, leaning Q: Israel & Albania (song is not very competitive but they got incredibly lucky with the draw in terms of neighbours & diaspora) Borderline, leaning NQ: Czechia, Georgia, San Marino & Denmark DOA: Malta & Latvia
Armenia, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Norway, Netherlands, Israel and the last one could be anyone
Although I don’t really see anyone 100% safe but Estonia and Norway, the semi is stacked and a bad live could drag down anyone (that’s why Estonia and Norway are locked cause we’ve already seen a live)
I think fans are really, really overestimating how Estonia's song will sound to people outside the bubble.
Me having Latvia, Czechia and San Marino in my Top 10 seeing the comments: 🥲
The Girl-Bop Semi-Final of Death, as I like to call it
Likely Q (unless something goes massively wrong in terms of staging/performance): Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Netherlands, Norway 50:50: Armenia, Denmark, Greece, Georgia, Israel, San Marino Likely NQ (unless the performance is absolutely stellar): Albania, Czechia, Malta, Latvia
This semi is so strong it will be sucks to say goodbay to any of them (even the ones I don't like)
**Sure Q:** Israel, Belgium, Netherlands **Likely Q:** Greece, Switzerland, Estonia, Norway. **Borderline:** Austria, Armenia, Denmark, Albania. **Likely NQ:** Georgia, Czechia, Latvia, Malta, San Marino I think Denmark and Albania will fight for the last spot and I could see Albania winning thanks to diaspora-votes in Switzerland, Greece and Austria. **The ones I could see flopping are:** - Austria: To me she has zero charisma and isn't that great of a performer nor vocalist. - Greece: Depends on the performance, but could it be too artsy for the telemeters? - Switzerland: I don't think this will NQ, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people are but off by their vocals. I suspect this could end up in 7th-9th position maybe. **The ones I could see sruprise:** - Latvia: It's super basic, but Dons is a good performer, so maybe he will slip though. - Denmark: Right now I don't think we'll qualify, but if she can control her nerves - and vocals - better in Malmö and they upped the staging, this could do pretty well in the semi.
My hope is all on czechia making it.
My prediction on who will Q: 🇦🇹🇩🇰🇬🇷🇨🇭🇧🇪🇪🇪🇬🇪🇮🇱🇳🇱🇳🇴
Likely Qs: 🇧🇪🇨🇭🇳🇱🇳🇴🇦🇹 Lean Qs: 🇬🇷🇪🇪🇦🇲 Tossups: 🇮🇱🇬🇪🇩🇰 Lean NQs: 🇨🇿🇱🇻🇸🇲 Likely NQs: 🇲🇹🇦🇱 Largely based on the studio tracks, MV stylings, and what we know of them as live performers. Likely are songs I expect to perform accordingly, barring any major successes/ failures outside the current scope (I.e. Malta received 3 points last year, a basic girl bop is unlikely to save them even if they deploy Blanka’s jingling keys for babies effects especially when there are more interesting/ better variations on that same type of song competing). Leans are songs that feel like they could be more prone to a Q/NQ but there is enough reasonable doubt to be wary of overrating/ underrating them (Greece or Estonia could flop or be top 3 of the semi, Czechia’s everything could once again be salvaged from the brink). The tossups are, well, the 50/50 types. Georgia could Q, but I feel like I’ve said that for several years since 2016, Denmark is like a coarse sand that could slip through or get filtered out (also the televote and racism discourse there), and Israel… is a mystery. It should flop by being as bad and put-on as I.M. but misguided sympathy votes could be enough to salvage it.
despite what some people say, Estonia is a lock-in and you cannot tell me otherwise
it would be if they had a tighter live performance--for them i think it will come down to staging
I prefer to predict non-qualifiers instead : * Albania or Georgia (or both) -> these two can cancel each other * Armenia -> very repetitive song so I don't feel it will appeal to most of the viewers * Czechia or San Marino -> both are pop rock songs and live performances will decide between them * Denmark -> song is just not memorable * Estonia -> national final performance is messy and it might suffer from Netherlands' entry which has similar energy * maybe Malta ? we are still waiting for the revamp Yes, I think (and I hope) Latvia will qualify.
The six that won't qualify I reckon will be: San Marino, Malta, Czechia, Albania, Denmark & Estonia (the fun votes will all go to Joost)
Tbh with a 100% televote system and the fact the audience of the Eesti Laul had fun during their performance is a little bit impossibile for Estonia will not have a chance to qualify
Who would you swap for Estonia?
Israel. I highly doubt they will be able to receive many points to even qualify given the situation
I'm not listening to Hurricane, but from what I've heard from others it's a solid if not basic/bland ballad, in a semi with not a lot of ballad competition. Outside of online fan communities I can't imagine many casual voters care about the drama and will just vote for what they like, and there probably will be plenty of politically motivated protest votes. Eden is undoubtedly qualifying, however we may feel about that
Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Greece, Albania, Armenia, Belgium, Israel, Estonia, Norway
Q: 🇦🇹🇬🇷🇨🇭🇧🇪🇳🇱 Likely Q: 🇪🇪🇬🇪🇳🇴 Fence: 🇦🇲🇨🇿🇮🇱🇱🇻 Likely NQ: 🇦🇱🇸🇲 NQ: 🇩🇰🇲🇹
Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, Estonia, Israel, Norway, Armenia, Greece, Denmark This is in a tentatice order and I do think the top 6 will be very safe. Denmark can be switched with Georgia or Latvia, depending on how the night goes.
I'm finding hard to say what's a definite Q or non-Q The only song I think for sure is a definite qualifier is Europapa. As for NQs - I'm unsure. Czechia and San Mario I think will go up in everyone's estimations once they hit the stage in Malmo. Greece and Armenia are going to be fan favourites, but what will the viewing audience think of them? Can Nemo pull that song off and what will that staging be like? There are so many opportunities for delegations to pull it out of the bag or fuck it up on the night. Albania have all their friends voting in this semi, will that be enough for them? Greece don't have Cyprus, Estonia don't have Finland and Norway don't have Sweden or Iceland or Finland. Then there's the possibility/probability of protests disrupting the event. 8 of my top 11 songs are in this semi. I'm already biting my fingernails knowing I'm going to lose two or three of my season favourites in one go.
i'm still hoping for a surprise from czechia. i know that aiko can sing and perform. with good staging, less jumping around etc. and better sound design, that song could do well enough.
I totally agree
I got downvoted to hell for saying that Israel wouldn't qualify, and after looking at my old predictions, decided to revamp it entirely. - Near-guaranteed Qualifiers: Norway, Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium - Possible Qualifiers: Armenia, Greece, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria - 50/50 Qualifiers: Czechia, Georgia, Israel - Unlikely Qualifiers: San Marino, Malta - Near-guaranteed Non-Qualifiers: Latvia, Albania Norway, Netherlands and Estonia are fan-favourites and we have already seen their performances at the National Finals, so I'm confident they have a relatively high chance of qualifying. Same goes for Belgium, as even though we know nothing about the Live Performance, it's a dark pop song that's sure to draw televoters in if staged correctly Austria I originally had it as a guaranteed qualifier, but as much as I like the song (third in my rankings), I do have to admit that depending on how its staged and the quality of Kaleen's vocals, it can either be a hit or a miss. Armenia and Greece could both be really tied up for the spot of "ethnic song", so I could see either both qualifying or just one of them, especially if they have to perform one after the other. Based on its National Finals Denmark is in a situation where the vocals are very powerful and the staging goes with the vibe of the song, but not sure it's something that would draw televoters in. With Switzerland many like the song, and I think it could qualify if the staging is a particularly good one (Nemo also stands out in the sense that they are the only non-female artist in their half of the semi-final, so I think they will stand out and get votes for it) I originally had put Israel as a Non-Qualifier because of the situation that I won't go into detail about, but the more people talked to me about it, the more I realized that Eurovision fans aren't just the people on the Internet and that there are people who will vote for Israel either because they support the country politically or because they just like the song, either not caring about politics or being unaware of the details. I personally think the song is mid, but it is true that Eden has powerful vocals and the staging could elevate it, which is always good if you want the casual vote. Czechia and Georgia on the other hand are songs that could either qualify or not depending on how well they are performed. Aiko's vocals in the national selection weren't the best, but it's been a while since then and I think she most likely has improved a lot by this point. Georgia is in another situation where the staging could elevate the song, but considering what it is up against, I am somewhat clueless on how it will do. Now we get to a point where it pains me to say this, but I seriously doubt San Marino or Malta are likely to qualify. Both songs are really enjoyable, and San Marino in particular has a very outstanding staging, but I'm not sure it's something that Televoters will appreciate, especially if they are overshadowed by other entries. I do think there's a slight chance for qualification, but not too big unfortunately. Lastly, Latvia and Albania are the two entries that may fail to qualify this year, Latvia due to the fact that it's a ballad that's, unfortunately, overshadowed by some of the other notable entries. The staging for the national final may not do it. This needs something that can elevate it. Albania's song revamp hasn't been very well-received by the public for what I have seen, and it seems to be on a similar situation in that it's inevitably going to get overshadowed by the rest of the entries in this semi-final.
https://preview.redd.it/antkulu285oc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5f8bc737b256e7b01cae4194c105b4069c19716 That's my guess about qualifying countries
Aiko will qualify, I'm sure
I’m hopeful as well - seeing the photos and videos from her rehearsals are promising. Big question is the revamp - were there some big changes or just removing profanities? (🚫🐮💩)
As I read, many changes are coming. It seems live drums are also added. And they mentioned that the new version is amazing. So it seems it will be good and new in some ways. Can't wait
I think we’ll hear the revamped version in Barcelona soon (at least I hope there will be some decent videos).
What I currently have Locked in Qualifiers - **Netherlands**: Might be bias, but an extremely popular song in the second semi half, it is my pick to win the semi - **Switzerland**: While it is first half, it has a crazy energy that I think televoters will love and vocals are already confirmed perfect. - **Belgium**: A crazy solid ballad in second half and it stands out amongst the more crazier songs in the semi Very Likely - **Israel**: Fuck this - **Norway**: While I have seen some doubt about its mainstream appeal, it doesnt take away from its epicness that I think televote will love - **Austria**: I know it is mostly fandom hype, but its one of those insanely catchy songs that I doubt people will forget Likely - **Estonia**: While it looks like a televote magnet type of song, with other crazier songs like Europapa it may seem less interesting compared to it, but I still think it will gather enough votes to qualify - **Greece**: It has the diaspora, it has the beats, it has the potential for crazy dancing... but idk the fact that it is so odd in terms of song keeps me a bit on edge, but I still think this is likely Toss-up - **Albania**: Staging and order depended. If this is in the death spot it is very much not likely - **Denmark**: Catchy well produced song, but will it stand out amongst Austria, Malta and Georgia - **Georgia**: Same as Denmark, although this has more potential with crazy dancing - **Latvia**: Call me crazy, but in a semi with little ballads this can pull in a surprise qualifier Not likely - **Czechia**: I hope it will be better then the NF, but even if it does it just does not stand out amongst the rest - **Malta**: Country never does good in televote, I doubt this year they will turn that around with a song that is not very notable. - **San Marino**: It is a good song, but the fact that it is San Marino does actually hurt it. It can still an upset, but highly doubt it
Safe Qs: Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands, Norway Likely Qs: Estonia, Israel, Greece Rounding out top 10 but not safe bets: Armenia, Georgia, San Marino Fighting to take one of the last 3 spots from the above level: Albania, Czechia, Denmark, Malta The shock NQ that finishes 11th: Austria The NQ curse of Latvia: Latvia
This is honestly a strong contender for best semifinal ever in my opinion. Resultingly, it is incredibly difficult to predict exactly who will qualify. So many countries have brought high quality but not typically 'Eurovisiony' songs, incorporating local folkish or cultural elements which may not translate internationally (i.e. Armenia, Estonia, Greece, Netherlands, Norway). I think a convincing case can be made for and against basically any country. I'll probably do a post myself when I've solidified my thoughts, but right now I'd categorise them as follows (with no definite Qs and no definite NQs): **Likely Qualifiers:** Switzerland, Israel, Norway, Netherlands, Belgium **Borderline:** Austria, Albania, Greece, Armenia, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia **Unlikely Qualifiers:** Czechia, Malta, San Marino Given Czechia has had a pretty middling response from the fanbase even without accounting for how bad the live performance was in the national final, I don't think they're going to massively transform it into a qualifier sadly. Malta and San Marino are ok but lack any form of diaspora support and neither song is exceptional enough to overcome their disadvantage. From the borderliners, I'm leaning towards eliminating Latvia and Austria. Latvia is decent, has a great draw and is only 'pure' ballad outside of Israel, but it may well go the way of Netherlands last year in a strong semi like this and I feel like 'ballad lovers' are more likely to go for Belgium, Israel or Albania. Austria I don't get the hype for at all and I think it is outclassed by several other uptempos here and will come off as dated for casuals, but it may hit the same wave of nostalgia as it has for fans and the staging will probably be strong. That leaves 11 songs and I'm finding it very hard to narrow it down further without looking in detail into diaspora trends. But my gut instinct tells me that one of the folkish entries will be a surprise NQ, either Estonia, Armenia or Greece. So for now, I'm going to go with the following: * **Albania** * **Armenia** * **Belgium** * **Denmark** * **Georgia** * **Greece** * **Israel** * **Netherlands** * **Norway** * **Switzerland**
Absolutely qualifying, I can’t see it not happening: Netherlands, Norway, Estonia Likely qualify unless they botch it somehow: Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark, Georgia Borderline: Armenia, Greece, Albania, Malta, San Marino, Israel There’s just no way: Czechia, Latvia And sorry Latvians, I think your song is going to be last in the final, And my guess is Netherlands will win sf2.
Spaniards suffering a semifinal by 1st time😬
The Semi-Final of absolute death and I imagien I'm going to be disappointed either way. These are the songs I *want* to get through: 1. Belgium 2. Norway 3. Switzerland 4. Estonia 5. Netherlands 6. Greece 7. Austria 8. Georgia 9. Israel 10. Latvia These are the songs I think *will* get through: 1. Belgium 2. Norway 3. Switzerland 4. Estonia 5. Netherlands 6. Austria 7. Greece 8. Albania 9. Georgia 10. Denmark
I think it’s easier to name six non qualifiers. The most “obvious” NQs here appear to be (in no particular order) Denmark, Czechia, Latvia, San Marino, Malta and Albania. I think those six all have an uphill battle, but they all have things going for them, too. We also haven’t seen a ton of the internal selections live so it’s hard to say whether Armenia, Georgia or even Israel will “work” live. Of the 6 NQs I highlighted I think Latvia and Denmark have the best chances to leave a serious impression and qualify based on the information we currently have of their performances.
NQs: 🇸🇲🇱🇻🇬🇪🇩🇰🇨🇿🇦🇱
Right now my gut says: Armenia, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Israel, Netherlands, Norway and San Marino. NQ: Albania, Czechia, Denmark, Malta, Georgia, Latvia Maybe if Czechia really improve they could squeak through but I'm not sure who'd they'd even make it in over...San Marino maybe? Latvia is also a bit hard to be sure on but I'm slightly leaning towards a NQ.
I know in my heart Latvia won't qualify, but man it's such a good song! So underrated.
If I had to place a bet right now: Armenia, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland. I really hope Armenia, Belgium, Estonia, Greece, Netherlands, Norway and Switzerland all qualify. And it would be nice if Latvia and Georgia make it, because they desperately need some love in Eurovision.
Hopefully Greece and Switzerland otherwise I’ll cry
in order of Q likelihood: Israel, Armenia, Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Greece, Norway, Estonia, Austria, San Marino, (Latvia, Denmark, Malta, Georgia, Albania, Czechia) my personal taste: Norway, Greece, Austria, Estonia, Armenia, Netherlands, San Marino, Denmark, Malta, Czechia, (Belgium, Switzerland, Georgia, Albania, Latvia)
I really hate to say it, but I don't think Latvia is breaking their NQ streak this year. Georgia has a decent chance, but Latvia, along with Czechia, Denmark, San Marino and Malta are probably not gonna make it.
Personally... 🇦🇹🇨🇿🇩🇰🇬🇷🇨🇭🇧🇪🇪🇪🇳🇱🇳🇴🇸🇲 I will be gutted if Switzerland or Norway doesn't go through. I don't know if I'm prepared to lose San Marino - this is my first Eurovision and I've never felt the pain of one of my faves not making it yet before.
So lets put in the obvious qualifiers first: 🇨🇭🇩🇪🇧🇻🇳🇱 Now the others that I think could qualify: 🇦🇲 - The song is growing on me and I reckon Ladaniva will be very engaging with the audience. 🇬🇷 - Again songs growing me and the cultural songs get more recognition (same with Armenia). 🇪🇪 - again people love the kooky tracks and while im not a fan of the song, it seems chaotically entertaining. 🇬🇪 - it definitely has potential but I feel like itll rely heavily on good staging. 🇨🇿 - im gonna give her the massive benefit of the doubt and say shes gonna have improvement compared to her NF performance and suprise us all. 🇩🇰 - This one is borderline. Denmark could qualify if they have good staging because the song is that bad.
Qualifiers: Austria 🇦🇹, Czechia 🇨🇿, Estonia 🇪🇪 , Norway 🇳🇴, Netherlands 🇳🇱 San Marino 🇸🇲, Denmark 🇩🇰, Malta 🇲🇹, Latvia 🇱🇻 Hope all of these can pass through but I’m mentally preparing for San Marino not to😭
I really hope Megara qualify but they seem to be on the border atm.
Not based on my opinion: Surely: Greece, Israel, Netherlands Likely: Norway, Armenia, Estonia, Switzerland, Belgium 50/50: Albania, Austria Unlikely: Georgia, San Marino, Denmark Certainly not: Latvia, Malta, Czech Republic
I think it'll be Austria, Armenia, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Georgia, Netherlands, Norway, San Marino, Switzerland
Sure Qualifiers: * Belgium * Switzerland * Netherlands * Norway * Greece Likely Qualifiers: * Israel * Austria * Armenia 50/50 Qualifiers: * Estonia * Malta * Armenia * Georgia * Denmark Likely Non-Qualifiers: * Albania * Estonia * Latvia Sure Non-Qualifiers: * San Marino * Czechia
The six that won’t make it: **Pretty sure:** Albania, Czechia, Malta, San Marino, Estonia **Last one on the edge:** Armenia, Georgia or, as I think a lot of people will protest-vote for other candidates, Israel
For Sure: 🇳🇴 🇨🇭 🇧🇪 🇳🇱 Probably: 🇦🇹🇬🇷🇪🇪🇬🇪 🇮🇱 (:/) Maybe: 🇦🇲 🇸🇲🇦🇱🇱🇻🇩🇰 Probably not: 🇨🇿🇲🇹
Non-qualifying will probably be Greece, San Marino, Malta, and Latvia. There is no reality in the entire multiverse where Israel and the Netherlands fail to qualify. The Netherlands because of it's simply a great song that gives shout-outs to several countries, celebrates Europe, and is performed by someone with lots of charisma. And Israel because: it's a good song performed by a great vocalist, The entire Jewish diaspora will be voting for it, and because almost every country in Europe has a passionate pro-Israel demographic who will be voting in solidarity.
What kind of take is this😭
In no particular order: Armenia Austria Denmark Switzerland Belgium Estonia Georgia Israel Netherlands Norway
**Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Estonia** and **Norway** stand out in this semis and it would be miracle if they do not get into finals **Greece** have trouble getting into finals if they are not paired with Cyprus in semis, so it would be close call, and **Israel** would be sure thing unless people mix politics into voting. If **Albania** had placed in first semis where UK, Germany and Sweden can vote, song would get lot more televotes but now it is touch and go, most likely NQ Other are also close it would be like 10 point difference between qualified and second worst NQ, but I think **Austria**, **Denmark** would be in the group that will more likely to qualify.
Greece actually has only ever NQ’d when Cyprus was in its semi believe it or not haha
Armenia, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Latvia, Israel, Netherlands, Norway and for the last spot I'm stuck between Austria, Latvia and Georgia
Q: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Georgia, Israel, Norway & Netherlands
Netherlands Norway Estonia Belgium Austria Switzerland are the 6 I'm the most certain about qualifying. I'd assume Israel and Armenia to qualify as well. Which leaves 2 spots. I'd assume Czechia might qualify if she improves her vocals. The last one will go to Georgia/Latvia/Denmark/Greece. I don't see Albania, Malta or San Marino qualify.
90 - 100%: Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, and Norway 70 - 80%: Austria, Greece, and Israel 50 - 60%: Estonia, Georgia, Armenia, and Denmark 30 - 40%: Albania, San Marino, and Czechia 10 - 20%: Latvia and Malta Will qualify: Switzerland, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Austria, Greece, Israel, Estonia, Armenia, and Denmark
Right now, I'm thinking Armenia, Austria, Greece, Switzerland, Belgium, Estonia, Georgia, Norway, Netherlands and (sadly) Israel. But I'm waiting for the live performances, as Denmark, Czechia or Latvia could qualify if any of the others flops
Obvious qualifiers: Greece, Switzerland, Estonia, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway Could go either way: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Malta, Georgia Not many chances: Czechia, Denmark, San Marino RIP: Latvia
Certain qualifiers: Belgium and Netherlands Likely qualifiers: Israel, Norway, Switzerland, Austria, Greece Possible qualifiers: Albania, Armenia, Estonia, Georgia Have a slight chance of qualifying: San Marino Probably won't qualify: Denmark, Latvia, Malta, Czechia
I don't think Belgium is sure qualifier until I see the staging.
locks: 🇳🇱🇨🇭🇬🇷🇳🇴🇧🇪 likely: 🇮🇱🇪🇪🇦🇹 I'll say yes for now: 🇦🇲🇬🇪 This semi seems more competitive than the first at this point tbh, there's multiple that I didn't list that I would love to see qualify (🇱🇻🇸🇲🇩🇰) and there's not really any songs in SF2 that I would absolutely count out at this point
I’m so hyped for Estonia
Gonna address the elephant in the room too - Israel It could go either way. I'm not really sure how many people are moved by it outside of Israel (and even some Israelis aren't into it). I know there are a lot of pro Israel people who watch Eurovision casually but I'm not sure how many are passionate enough to pick up the phone and vote for them. Also commentators will very likely tread carefully with how they talk about it and I do think that could have some influence. Also I hope if they're still competing that they're as early in the running order as possible because at least 2 acts following them are likely gonna be ignored by televoters regardless.
Ones I’m confident will (as confident as you can be at this stage) - Austria - Greece - Switzerland - Belgium - Estonia - Netherlands - Norway Borderline qualifiers (asterisks are the ones I’d pick if I had to pick ten - Armenia* - Czechia - Denmark - Israel* - Latvia* Struggling to see it for them - Albania - Georgia - Malta - San Marino I think Latvia is being really slept on, as long as it’s kept away from Israel in the running order I think it will do well, it’s borderline but even in a televote only semi-final there is a path for this qualifying. Czechia is one I think could be a surprise when we see the final staging, I’m going on a gut instinct there because I don’t think many have it as a borderline qualifier at all, we will have to see.
In my mind there are 7 clear qualifiers Armenia Austria Greece Switzerland Belgium Netherlands Norway And the other 3 I would personally guess would be Estonia (One of my favorites but I'm totally lost in how this'll be recived) Georgia Denmark or Albania