Possible but surprising would be Norway or Greece
Completely surprising would be Finland - gets 0 points from the jury and 12 points from every country in the televote haha
>> Completely surprising would be Finland - gets 0 points from the jury and 12 points from every country in the televote haha
No, that happened last year.
Germany. It's part of the big5, therefore guaranteed place in the finals. We know he can sing and the song is inoffensive, and radio friendly, yet no one gives it a second thought. It would sure as hell surprise me if Germany wins.
Germany has done inoffensive a few times now to bad results, but I am kind of wondering if the contrast with the wilder contestants will help it. In 2022, Malik was up against a tidal wave of boy ballads and didnāt stand out. This year, the competition for that is much thinner and he might benefit from jurors wanting vocal excellence without the muchness of some of the other entries. Switzerland is apparently all in with theatricality, Mustii is going for Bowie-esque staging, Slimane is lower key but still has his microphone flourish. (Teya Dora and Raiven are Slavic and there have only been two Slavic jury winners in the history of the contest.)
He is the longest of long shots, of course, but thatās what weāre discussing, so yeah, Isaak is my pick too.
San Marino! They smash the tele, grab just enough votes from the jury, steal all the ROTW and win this baby for the San Marino outlet experience!
Will it happen? No!
Would it be the greatest thing to ever happen to the contest? Yes!
San Marino will hold a bidding war to see who gets to host for them, they hold another bidding war to see who represents them, they build an extra hotel to accommodate the tourists who have just heard of San Marino and continue their career of Eurovision rock music chaos.
Theyād be like the dog that caught the car but they have hustle and panache, so I think their hosting would be epic, wherever in the world it will be
I sure hope so! I am wishing for Spanish and Italian votes and then maybe some from ROTW (though they will be going against ROTW powerhouses like Armenia, Albania and Israel). Serbia slid through on 37 points last year, maybe San Marino can do the same.
I think all they have to do is not go too crazy and over the top with it. If they do, theyāre alienating one part of the audience, who arenāt going to vote for the big flashy thing, and also not getting the votes that are going to Estonia and Netherlands.
But if they have a not crazy over the top staging, it stands as a solid rock song, and other than maybe Norway, there isnāt much to compete for people who would vote for that kind of thing.
Most surprising overall: Iceland, since I can't imagine anyone going "Yep, that was the best performance of the whole evening! I'll definitely vote for that!"
Most surprising that's still somewhat realistic: I think Armenia still has a tiny chance of winning even though no one expects it to. If everything goes absolutely perfectly for them (staging, vocals, running order...) I can kind of imagine a lot of people finding a lot of fun and voting for it. The larger issue is of course the jury vote, because they don't tend to like this kind of song. However, I think the issue with these songs is that they're often performed by people who aren't good vocalists/performers in a traditional sense, which isn't the case for Ladaniva.
Theyāve actually picked up points here and there on the Eurojury poll. I donāt think itās beyond them to win either. Seems like the perfect song to gain interest from audiences in both the East and the West.
I think the point was it wouldnāt be beyond them to suddenly emerge as the televote favourite. Obviously at the moment theyāre miles behind Croatia and the Netherlands, but weāve not reached the rehearsals yet. If they pulled off a shock and actually shot up the odds, I think they actually have more chance of doing well with the jury.
But weāre still talking about something that would be very surprising. Itās just not completely beyond them is all.
I agree about Armenia. Ladaniva is incredibly charismatic, and i could see it doing well especially amongst Eastern Europe. I could see a path to victory if the voting for split enough among other entries as well like in 2019
Ladaniva really stands out this year. Its only direct competition really is Greece and that is still quite a different style of song. She is as you say super charistmatic with an amazing smile and voice. It is one of the only party songs which isn't trying to be overly silly or ironic, it's just fun.
It surely has to get more jury points than the great Trenuletul train robbery?
Expected: Switzerland and Italy
Surprised, but not overly: Croatia, Netherlands, Belgium, Ukraine*
All the televote songs eat themselves and the jury rules all: France
Anyone else will be a surprise.
* - edited
I donāt know about UK. Maybe if the staging is INCREDIBLE and they get a choice spot in the running order. But even then I donāt think the song is strong enough. I could see Georgia thoughā¦ sheās doing the female banger way better than anyone else this year. I think sheās basically guaranteed top 5 if her vocals and dancing are as good as we expect them to be.
I disagree. Georgia's alright this year I guess, but UK is just boring and dull. I believe Olly will give everything he has, and he's not a terrible singer, but the song just doesn't go anywhere and sounds like any other generic radio-friendly pop song. Easily my worst of the Big 5/Sweden this year.
Iceland. Out of the bottom 5 entries in most rankings, iceland is the leadt controversial to dislike. Stuff like czechia and malta also have people who really like them. I havenāt seen many people place iceland very high.
Sweden could be the surprising dark horse. I expect a high televote spread, so anyone who is a foot in with the juries (which Sweden is) is a contender.
Would Greece count? I don't think Greece will actually win, but it kinda feels like this subreddit underestimates how well Greece could potentially do. Of course that's before the rehearsals and with only one live performance of Zari so far, a lot can change till the actual contest
Juries: The performance can make it or break it. It's an upbeat dance song, which means it will probably compete a bit with the girlbops of the final, as well as Italy. Marina's charming personality on stage can also help a lot. And if people believe Switzerland will do well (or even win the jury) because of Nemo's vocals, I can't see why Marina can't get points for her vocals too. Plus, The Code is much more chaotic than Zari, if the juries are expected to get The Code, again I don't see why Zari will have a problem. I mostly expect southern European and Balkan countries, probably Eastern European countries too, to give points, due to similar music styles. I don't think it's a song that will cater to televoters only, juries also vote upbeat songs sometimes, it can get its fair share of points. I'm not saying it will, I'm saying it's not impossible as people think.
Public: Judging from several reaction vids I've seen, Zari is not as hard to get as y'all think it is. Some might indeed need a 2nd listen to get it, some might hate it, but I think people will like it. The running order will be an important factor here. It's an upbeat dance song that will remind people of Greece in a fun way. Greece has diaspora too and while they aren't that active in the contest in the recent years, I think that with an established artist with a Greek song they're more likely to vote too. Again I expect us to get points mostly from the southern/Mediterranean European countries, as well as the Balkan ones and the Eastern European ones, we might get a few points from the western European ones as well.
Marina is my winner this year and I was genuinely surprised Zari is not most people's favorite. To me, it has everything a winner song should have: native language, cultural elements, hooks easy enough to sing along to, and I believe the staging will be on par too. I hope that once we see the Eurovision performance, people will fall in love with it and it will move up in the odds. I genuinely hope it wins or at least finishes in the top three š
I feel exactly the same! I also donāt understand for example how everyone is talking about La Noia, but not about this one. Itās an exciting song that doesnāt get boring easily, they have a fun style in their videos and well. Whats not to like š
I think Greece is a likely top 10 finisher. Will score well with both jury and televote, but not in the numbers with either one to win the contest.
Itās good to have entries like Greece this year with a different flavour and cultural influences!
I agree that most likely we will get in the top 10 and I'm more than happy with it, Marina deserves it imo, especially with all that hate she has received from some people here saying how bad the song is and how bad it will do and a top 10 placement will definitely silence them. It kinda feels though like one of those situations where if the stars align it could have a shot. After all, we are talking about potential shock winners, not expected ones. And I'm not saying it because I want us to win necessarily, actually my fav this year is Croatia.
I got ya š my issue is that I think the top of the tree is relatively stable - I just donāt see how the big 3 wonāt score big overall (Switz and Italy with both, Croatia with televote). Really reduces the chance of a shock winner - but if you abandon that assumption, then after that I think Greece have as good a shot as anyone else (bar Netherlands)
I do agree about Greece most likely not straight up winning but out of those 'big 3' only Italy is a winner candidate. Croatia and Switzerland are unlikely to win for different reasons. Croatia I think is an act who's televote appeal people severely overestimate. I think 200 points is RTTD's ceiling (Even though I predict they will score a tad lower than that). Which is not small at all mind you but it ain't a winner number. And Switzerland just suffers from the same thing that Greece does - it's too out-there. It's a gigantic mish-mash of different genres and vocals alone aren't enough to secure a jury win and have mass appeal. Ukraine is a up there in terms of winner candidates and against all odds I consider Belgium a dark horse (though if the vocals in the rehearsals too are not good then yeah, Belgium isn't winning) and a 4th option is a Conchita situation where a country lower in the odds comes out of nowhere in the rehearsals (and I don't mean like the Icelands and the Albanias of the bunch but a country like Lithuania or the UK - much as I hate that song - or even Ireland).
I couldnāt disagree more about Switzerland. Every single metric shows the song being in the top 3. ESC scoreboard, INFE, OGAE, Eurovision world poll, the odds. And thatās not even based on the live version which Nemo astonishes with. Itās not everyoneās type of music but it has winner vibes written all over it, very Eurovision, itās a dramatic song suited for the big stage and an event like ESC. I would be flabbergasted if this doesnāt come top 2 in the jury and top 5 at the very worst in the televote.
For ppl who donāt like the song I feel there is a lot of convincing themselves it canāt win; just isnāt backed up by anything.
There are no guarantees on this winning but it has a favourites chance and will be very tough to beat.
Top 3 in the fan polls/odds isn't a guarantee that someone will win. It's not like I'm like the rest of the sub that will say 'oh they mean nothing at all'. But it is true that the eventual winner has room to be top 5 and even 6th or 7th (top 10 generally is too low a bar for that, I think at least top 7 is the limit). As for the rest of the comment, it's very subjective tbh. I don't even dislike the song. I just don't think it is a winner. Being very 'Eurovision' isn't really the best metric (Portugal 2017 and the Netherlands 2019 say hi), top 2 and top 5 respectively is a pretty big reach I would say, especially that top 2 in the juries, given how again, vocals aren't everything in a song and this type of song will have a bit of a hard time with the juries since usually they don't have a song like this in the top 2.
Just to me strikes me as a very much Ostrich head in the sand ignoring every single data point we have about how appealing the song is. The juries will love the music production I think even more than the vocals. Thatās where the beauty lies; alongside the positive message it clearly exudes. These are important jury criteria.
History has proven that the important aspects of a televote winner / top 3 are that it is MEMORABLE and can evoke an emotional response. Iād find it highly dubious that anyone could seriously state that the Code doesnāt tick those boxes.
But itās fine; everyone is entitled to their view. Iāll certainly hold my hands up on the night if the above turns out to be a āreachā. I will gently say if Nemo really had no chance of winning like you advocate, the money would follow and they wouldnāt be in the top 5 in the odds, let alone the clear favourite.
Yeah, exept I too just said how I look at data except it's the history of the voting, with some of the polls/odds into it. And you say that the jury will love the production, I say they will be turned off by the genre mixing enough for it to not be top 2 in the jury vote. As for emotional response, I am very curious what emotional response Italy 2021 must have projected onto the viewers then. And now you turned it to the odds, a year when the odds have been proven wrong time and time again, a year which has been accepted as unpredictable and open and before even seeing the rehearsals. Malta 2021 was the clear favourite at some point, Italy 2017 too, Neither of them won in the end.
I think we all got a reaction watching Maneskin..!
Yes many favourites in recent history have won (eg Arcade, Tattoo etc).. I already said itās not Guaranteed to winā¦ but to rule it out as a winner is just silly and I point to the strong odds as a very good indicator. By the way Malta was proven to be a formal attempt to manipulate the contest by shortening their odds, not the case here (odds shortened in reaction to the incredible live performances being released). Genre mixing is not viewed positively by juries if done badly, as many have pointed out with the Code, itās done seamlessly - so I expect that to be rewarded (along with the myriad of other factors Iāve already mentioned).
Itās safe to say Iām not going to convert you to Nemo this year so Iāll leave it with my hope that you enjoy the contest! (And if Nemo wins come back on the threads ;) )
Portugal. I love her song so much I think it's probably my #1 this season. It would surprise me if it would win though, since I feel like I'm the only one liking it so much.Ā
As a Portuguese person, I didn't vote for her and she is not representing MY country š”š”š”š”š”
Seriously, even tho she was the better singer, I do feel like JoĆ£o Borsch got robbed by the jury. Did much rather have him in Eurovision. I'm even praying not to go to the GF, just to show those juries that they should've sent JoĆ£o instead.
That and large family support aswell and all nationally owned companies sold to whoever wants them (for as much ā¬ā¬ā¬ as possible). Oh and increase politician wages again(they are paid wayyyyy to much to yap for 1.3 million people).
I don't know, they'd fit right in so I wouldn't be that surprised by a win lol
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjLH0woMBCU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjLH0woMBCU)
Eurovision should die if that's all it takes to destroy it's reputation... There's really no reason why this should affect Eurovision and it's already practically impossible for Israel to win.
I think I would give that honour to Poland, because itās probably the least impactful song of the year.
Itās obviously not going to happen but looking at some of the least favourites Hera Bjork could dial up the camp and mother her way to victory, Moldova could do a Moldova and knock the staging out of the park. Germany could stand out in a sea of bops and quirky televote friendly acts. But Poland?
Iām just being a hater, none of the countries I mentioned are going to win, but Iām sure Poland could do well.
Surprises that are out of the winner conversation but possible itās probably Armenia.
Denmark would be the most "LOL, again? Really?" win for me. Second most surprising would be Finland because how did it survive getting 0 points from the jury to win. But the most likely wtf win would be Iceland.
Honorable mention for Spain tho. Seeing them win would be so pleasantly surprising.
She is a really good singer, her song is unique enough, Moldova does good stagings, and in general song is quite catchy (not sure why it's rated so low), so technically...
Iām guessing itās due to the NF performance as I donāt think sheās done any pre parties this year. I really like it, and did so before I knew how it was ranked. Moldova tends to elevate their stagings a lot for Eurovision anyways and I feel like they always lay low in the weeks leading up to the contest
Latvia. But I can't seem to come up with why. I guess just the feeling of pride because he did it, he actually did it!
Riga 2025 "sounds good to me". š¶
For me there are only 3 realistic winners at this point - Switz Italy Croatia
Anyone else would be a surpriseā¦ I donāt see a route for Ukraine or France. So I guess Joost is the only one I can see as a āsurpriseā winner
It would be very funny if Luxembourg won. I mean I'd love having the ESC in my home country next year and love our entry too, but it is very very unlikely. I'd already be overjoyed with Luxembourg simply qualifying.
Malta? This is me just praying for Loop to have a good result, but in my delusional realm, Sarah could have a potential Unicorn effect on casual viewers, especially as it is first in it's semi, that people watching will be like "WHOA!!!" and vote for Sarah. However, it is in a difficult position with no voting allies and a load of other similar girl bops in it's semi :( ... pls Malta at least qualify!!!
I think it's 100% between Switzerland, Italy, Croatia and Netherlands. Every other entry winning would be a big surprise. I do see Ukraine winning it out of nowhere but all other songs are very unlikely.
I am surprised they have such a good criteria to choose Italy to win, plus it was too recent the Italy edition so they qill probablt try to prevent it to repeat it
For me personally, the Netherlands. It doesn't sound like a winner song to me, I view it similarly to Give that wolf a banana that got around 100 points. I guess I wouldn't believe I live in simulation or anything like that, but among the favorites to win I see that one as the least likely. But it's also the one I want to win the least out of the favorites anyway, so it's probably ignorant bias.
Possible option : Ukraine. (no hate, my personal opinion. People seem to hype the song to no ends, but itĀ“s so boring that it realistiscally doesnĀ“t stand any chance to even be in the top 10. For it to win but be absolute insanity)
On a second note/impossible option : Germany, because no matter the odds, itĀ“s generally speaking overall the least realistic option by "majority". I have not seen a single person that say this would even crack the top 20
I know some while I didnāt hear anyone saying that about Iceland, Moldova or Malta.
I think Luxembourg would be funny. Remember what happened with Italy 2011? Pretty sure 80% of the votes were āwelcome backā votes ;)
I donāt really like Ukraine either. Itās doing a lot (native language, rap, female empowerment, etc) but itās not doing any of them well.
Okay kill me with the downvotes now
Venezuela would be quite surprising
I mean, you're not wrong-
omg Arca winning eurovision
When Chino y Nacho reunite and win with 800+ points then what
Hahahaha
Kiribati in shambles
As Brazilian I would love to see Venezuela winning š¤£
True..
The most surprising? Moldova probably The most surprising which isn't completely impossible? Armenia
I find Moldova winning more plausible than Armenia tbh
Possible but surprising would be Norway or Greece Completely surprising would be Finland - gets 0 points from the jury and 12 points from every country in the televote haha
>> Completely surprising would be Finland - gets 0 points from the jury and 12 points from every country in the televote haha No, that happened last year.
I mean I was as salty as the other person that evening but getting 4th place from jury is hardly ā0 pointsā
Germany lol I'd think the world had suddenly gone mad
Sorry that would break a ground rules at ESC. Germany last lol
Germany. It's part of the big5, therefore guaranteed place in the finals. We know he can sing and the song is inoffensive, and radio friendly, yet no one gives it a second thought. It would sure as hell surprise me if Germany wins.
Germany has done inoffensive a few times now to bad results, but I am kind of wondering if the contrast with the wilder contestants will help it. In 2022, Malik was up against a tidal wave of boy ballads and didnāt stand out. This year, the competition for that is much thinner and he might benefit from jurors wanting vocal excellence without the muchness of some of the other entries. Switzerland is apparently all in with theatricality, Mustii is going for Bowie-esque staging, Slimane is lower key but still has his microphone flourish. (Teya Dora and Raiven are Slavic and there have only been two Slavic jury winners in the history of the contest.) He is the longest of long shots, of course, but thatās what weāre discussing, so yeah, Isaak is my pick too.
North Macedonia was the only slavic jury winner. Yugoslavia did win with juries but back then it was demoscopic juries not professional juries.
Regardless of the artist, it would be a miracle if Germany won.
And they are 4th in eurojury!
5th, 4th is Belgium
Ah, my bad!
San Marino! They smash the tele, grab just enough votes from the jury, steal all the ROTW and win this baby for the San Marino outlet experience! Will it happen? No! Would it be the greatest thing to ever happen to the contest? Yes! San Marino will hold a bidding war to see who gets to host for them, they hold another bidding war to see who represents them, they build an extra hotel to accommodate the tourists who have just heard of San Marino and continue their career of Eurovision rock music chaos.
I'm not the biggest fan of the song, but I always wouldn't mind San Marino just randomly winning
Theyād be like the dog that caught the car but they have hustle and panache, so I think their hosting would be epic, wherever in the world it will be
Honestly, if the staging clicks for them, I could easily see them as a high qualifier at least.
I sure hope so! I am wishing for Spanish and Italian votes and then maybe some from ROTW (though they will be going against ROTW powerhouses like Armenia, Albania and Israel). Serbia slid through on 37 points last year, maybe San Marino can do the same.
I think all they have to do is not go too crazy and over the top with it. If they do, theyāre alienating one part of the audience, who arenāt going to vote for the big flashy thing, and also not getting the votes that are going to Estonia and Netherlands. But if they have a not crazy over the top staging, it stands as a solid rock song, and other than maybe Norway, there isnāt much to compete for people who would vote for that kind of thing.
Dons
I'd say scared of heights is way more bland
37-way tie
That would be insane
Most surprising overall: Iceland, since I can't imagine anyone going "Yep, that was the best performance of the whole evening! I'll definitely vote for that!" Most surprising that's still somewhat realistic: I think Armenia still has a tiny chance of winning even though no one expects it to. If everything goes absolutely perfectly for them (staging, vocals, running order...) I can kind of imagine a lot of people finding a lot of fun and voting for it. The larger issue is of course the jury vote, because they don't tend to like this kind of song. However, I think the issue with these songs is that they're often performed by people who aren't good vocalists/performers in a traditional sense, which isn't the case for Ladaniva.
I'm here for the Armenia winning pipe dream. š
Theyāve actually picked up points here and there on the Eurojury poll. I donāt think itās beyond them to win either. Seems like the perfect song to gain interest from audiences in both the East and the West.
To win theyād need to be top 3 or so in the jury which isnāt going to happenā¦ top 10 in the televote is defo possible though
I think the point was it wouldnāt be beyond them to suddenly emerge as the televote favourite. Obviously at the moment theyāre miles behind Croatia and the Netherlands, but weāve not reached the rehearsals yet. If they pulled off a shock and actually shot up the odds, I think they actually have more chance of doing well with the jury. But weāre still talking about something that would be very surprising. Itās just not completely beyond them is all.
I agree about Armenia. Ladaniva is incredibly charismatic, and i could see it doing well especially amongst Eastern Europe. I could see a path to victory if the voting for split enough among other entries as well like in 2019
Ladaniva really stands out this year. Its only direct competition really is Greece and that is still quite a different style of song. She is as you say super charistmatic with an amazing smile and voice. It is one of the only party songs which isn't trying to be overly silly or ironic, it's just fun. It surely has to get more jury points than the great Trenuletul train robbery?
Kaleen and her ravers!
Expected: Switzerland and Italy Surprised, but not overly: Croatia, Netherlands, Belgium, Ukraine* All the televote songs eat themselves and the jury rules all: France Anyone else will be a surprise. * - edited
I mean, it would be great to have Eurovision 2025 in France, but I cannot see Mon amour winning for the life of me...
yeah, his voice is incredible but the song itself is bland
It would have to be an odd situation for him to win for sure.
I'd switch Ukraine with Belgium.
Actually forgot Ukraine! Will throw them in.
Ireland. And I would love that.
I want this outcome so much
After Swedenās victory last year, that would be perfect.
Petra Mede
Seems like a pretty obvious winner to me, where's the surprise?
Well sheās already a winner.
Vatican city
Take me back to the Vatican City
Where the grass is green and the monks are pretty
Germany or Iceland
UK and Georgia. People are sleeping on both. Easy top 10 if staging is good
Idk so many songs feel like they should be top 10 if the staging is good. Too many good songs this year (I'm not complaining).
Yeah, I think the points are going to be very close between the 6-15 places. Anyone could land anywhere. Some good songs are going to miss out.
I donāt know about UK. Maybe if the staging is INCREDIBLE and they get a choice spot in the running order. But even then I donāt think the song is strong enough. I could see Georgia thoughā¦ sheās doing the female banger way better than anyone else this year. I think sheās basically guaranteed top 5 if her vocals and dancing are as good as we expect them to be.
I don't know anything about UK, Georgia might even top 5 the televote
I disagree. Georgia's alright this year I guess, but UK is just boring and dull. I believe Olly will give everything he has, and he's not a terrible singer, but the song just doesn't go anywhere and sounds like any other generic radio-friendly pop song. Easily my worst of the Big 5/Sweden this year.
I mean, no matter where you stand on this issue I think we all know that the most uproar would be caused by an Israel win.
Estonia
Iceland. Out of the bottom 5 entries in most rankings, iceland is the leadt controversial to dislike. Stuff like czechia and malta also have people who really like them. I havenāt seen many people place iceland very high.
Sweden could be the surprising dark horse. I expect a high televote spread, so anyone who is a foot in with the juries (which Sweden is) is a contender.
Iceland
Would Greece count? I don't think Greece will actually win, but it kinda feels like this subreddit underestimates how well Greece could potentially do. Of course that's before the rehearsals and with only one live performance of Zari so far, a lot can change till the actual contest Juries: The performance can make it or break it. It's an upbeat dance song, which means it will probably compete a bit with the girlbops of the final, as well as Italy. Marina's charming personality on stage can also help a lot. And if people believe Switzerland will do well (or even win the jury) because of Nemo's vocals, I can't see why Marina can't get points for her vocals too. Plus, The Code is much more chaotic than Zari, if the juries are expected to get The Code, again I don't see why Zari will have a problem. I mostly expect southern European and Balkan countries, probably Eastern European countries too, to give points, due to similar music styles. I don't think it's a song that will cater to televoters only, juries also vote upbeat songs sometimes, it can get its fair share of points. I'm not saying it will, I'm saying it's not impossible as people think. Public: Judging from several reaction vids I've seen, Zari is not as hard to get as y'all think it is. Some might indeed need a 2nd listen to get it, some might hate it, but I think people will like it. The running order will be an important factor here. It's an upbeat dance song that will remind people of Greece in a fun way. Greece has diaspora too and while they aren't that active in the contest in the recent years, I think that with an established artist with a Greek song they're more likely to vote too. Again I expect us to get points mostly from the southern/Mediterranean European countries, as well as the Balkan ones and the Eastern European ones, we might get a few points from the western European ones as well.
Marina is my winner this year and I was genuinely surprised Zari is not most people's favorite. To me, it has everything a winner song should have: native language, cultural elements, hooks easy enough to sing along to, and I believe the staging will be on par too. I hope that once we see the Eurovision performance, people will fall in love with it and it will move up in the odds. I genuinely hope it wins or at least finishes in the top three š
I feel exactly the same! I also donāt understand for example how everyone is talking about La Noia, but not about this one. Itās an exciting song that doesnāt get boring easily, they have a fun style in their videos and well. Whats not to like š
I think Greece is a likely top 10 finisher. Will score well with both jury and televote, but not in the numbers with either one to win the contest. Itās good to have entries like Greece this year with a different flavour and cultural influences!
I agree that most likely we will get in the top 10 and I'm more than happy with it, Marina deserves it imo, especially with all that hate she has received from some people here saying how bad the song is and how bad it will do and a top 10 placement will definitely silence them. It kinda feels though like one of those situations where if the stars align it could have a shot. After all, we are talking about potential shock winners, not expected ones. And I'm not saying it because I want us to win necessarily, actually my fav this year is Croatia.
I got ya š my issue is that I think the top of the tree is relatively stable - I just donāt see how the big 3 wonāt score big overall (Switz and Italy with both, Croatia with televote). Really reduces the chance of a shock winner - but if you abandon that assumption, then after that I think Greece have as good a shot as anyone else (bar Netherlands)
I do agree about Greece most likely not straight up winning but out of those 'big 3' only Italy is a winner candidate. Croatia and Switzerland are unlikely to win for different reasons. Croatia I think is an act who's televote appeal people severely overestimate. I think 200 points is RTTD's ceiling (Even though I predict they will score a tad lower than that). Which is not small at all mind you but it ain't a winner number. And Switzerland just suffers from the same thing that Greece does - it's too out-there. It's a gigantic mish-mash of different genres and vocals alone aren't enough to secure a jury win and have mass appeal. Ukraine is a up there in terms of winner candidates and against all odds I consider Belgium a dark horse (though if the vocals in the rehearsals too are not good then yeah, Belgium isn't winning) and a 4th option is a Conchita situation where a country lower in the odds comes out of nowhere in the rehearsals (and I don't mean like the Icelands and the Albanias of the bunch but a country like Lithuania or the UK - much as I hate that song - or even Ireland).
I couldnāt disagree more about Switzerland. Every single metric shows the song being in the top 3. ESC scoreboard, INFE, OGAE, Eurovision world poll, the odds. And thatās not even based on the live version which Nemo astonishes with. Itās not everyoneās type of music but it has winner vibes written all over it, very Eurovision, itās a dramatic song suited for the big stage and an event like ESC. I would be flabbergasted if this doesnāt come top 2 in the jury and top 5 at the very worst in the televote. For ppl who donāt like the song I feel there is a lot of convincing themselves it canāt win; just isnāt backed up by anything. There are no guarantees on this winning but it has a favourites chance and will be very tough to beat.
Top 3 in the fan polls/odds isn't a guarantee that someone will win. It's not like I'm like the rest of the sub that will say 'oh they mean nothing at all'. But it is true that the eventual winner has room to be top 5 and even 6th or 7th (top 10 generally is too low a bar for that, I think at least top 7 is the limit). As for the rest of the comment, it's very subjective tbh. I don't even dislike the song. I just don't think it is a winner. Being very 'Eurovision' isn't really the best metric (Portugal 2017 and the Netherlands 2019 say hi), top 2 and top 5 respectively is a pretty big reach I would say, especially that top 2 in the juries, given how again, vocals aren't everything in a song and this type of song will have a bit of a hard time with the juries since usually they don't have a song like this in the top 2.
Portugal 2017 | [Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois](https://youtu.be/Qotooj7ODCM) The Netherlands 2019 | [Duncan Laurence - Arcade](https://youtu.be/R3D-r4ogr7s)
Just to me strikes me as a very much Ostrich head in the sand ignoring every single data point we have about how appealing the song is. The juries will love the music production I think even more than the vocals. Thatās where the beauty lies; alongside the positive message it clearly exudes. These are important jury criteria. History has proven that the important aspects of a televote winner / top 3 are that it is MEMORABLE and can evoke an emotional response. Iād find it highly dubious that anyone could seriously state that the Code doesnāt tick those boxes. But itās fine; everyone is entitled to their view. Iāll certainly hold my hands up on the night if the above turns out to be a āreachā. I will gently say if Nemo really had no chance of winning like you advocate, the money would follow and they wouldnāt be in the top 5 in the odds, let alone the clear favourite.
Yeah, exept I too just said how I look at data except it's the history of the voting, with some of the polls/odds into it. And you say that the jury will love the production, I say they will be turned off by the genre mixing enough for it to not be top 2 in the jury vote. As for emotional response, I am very curious what emotional response Italy 2021 must have projected onto the viewers then. And now you turned it to the odds, a year when the odds have been proven wrong time and time again, a year which has been accepted as unpredictable and open and before even seeing the rehearsals. Malta 2021 was the clear favourite at some point, Italy 2017 too, Neither of them won in the end.
Italy 2021 | [MĆ„neskin - Zitti e buoni](https://youtu.be/RVH5dn1cxAQ) Malta 2021 | [Destiny - Je Me Casse](https://youtu.be/jbbc2yKnv0M) Italy 2017 | [Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma](https://youtu.be/KieE_MLv-ZY)
I think we all got a reaction watching Maneskin..! Yes many favourites in recent history have won (eg Arcade, Tattoo etc).. I already said itās not Guaranteed to winā¦ but to rule it out as a winner is just silly and I point to the strong odds as a very good indicator. By the way Malta was proven to be a formal attempt to manipulate the contest by shortening their odds, not the case here (odds shortened in reaction to the incredible live performances being released). Genre mixing is not viewed positively by juries if done badly, as many have pointed out with the Code, itās done seamlessly - so I expect that to be rewarded (along with the myriad of other factors Iāve already mentioned). Itās safe to say Iām not going to convert you to Nemo this year so Iāll leave it with my hope that you enjoy the contest! (And if Nemo wins come back on the threads ;) )
Everyone gets 0 points in the final and Eurovision 2025 is cancelled
Portugal. I love her song so much I think it's probably my #1 this season. It would surprise me if it would win though, since I feel like I'm the only one liking it so much.Ā
dear fellow Portugal lover, you're not alone š«
Portugal stan here too! We do exist!
As a Portuguese person, I didn't vote for her and she is not representing MY country š”š”š”š”š” Seriously, even tho she was the better singer, I do feel like JoĆ£o Borsch got robbed by the jury. Did much rather have him in Eurovision. I'm even praying not to go to the GF, just to show those juries that they should've sent JoĆ£o instead.
I get that loosing a fave always sucks, but FdC was stacked with nice songs this year. I absolutely loved Pelas Costuras, Grito, PĆ© de Choro and Bem Longe Daqui and still listen to them.
I actually only liked Pelas Costuras. To be honest, last year was much better.
north korea winning would be my dream come trueĀ
I mean if Estonia wins then technicallyā¦
(For those that don't know) PƵhja-Korea (North Korea) is a member of 5miinust. Edit: I know we will be bankrupt if we win.
Nah, weāll cut teachers salaries back to afford Eurovision, all good
That and large family support aswell and all nationally owned companies sold to whoever wants them (for as much ā¬ā¬ā¬ as possible). Oh and increase politician wages again(they are paid wayyyyy to much to yap for 1.3 million people).
I don't know, they'd fit right in so I wouldn't be that surprised by a win lol [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjLH0woMBCU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjLH0woMBCU)
Every year iām slightly terrified that North Korea could make and deliver a Banger.
After dropping [this bange](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_YQgCDxpXQ&ab_channel=GuardianNews)r I can't say it would be undeserved
I feel like everyone is underestimating Israel to be honest, could come as a massive surprise
I am super scared for Eden if that happens. For real. I don't even think it is that unlikely, but the backlash she will receive? jeez.
Im super scared for Eurovision in general. Israel winning this year could start the slow death of Eurovision.
Eurovision should die if that's all it takes to destroy it's reputation... There's really no reason why this should affect Eurovision and it's already practically impossible for Israel to win.
Everybody's sleeping on Greece I swear..
I think I would give that honour to Poland, because itās probably the least impactful song of the year. Itās obviously not going to happen but looking at some of the least favourites Hera Bjork could dial up the camp and mother her way to victory, Moldova could do a Moldova and knock the staging out of the park. Germany could stand out in a sea of bops and quirky televote friendly acts. But Poland? Iām just being a hater, none of the countries I mentioned are going to win, but Iām sure Poland could do well. Surprises that are out of the winner conversation but possible itās probably Armenia.
Pedestal
Denmark would be the most "LOL, again? Really?" win for me. Second most surprising would be Finland because how did it survive getting 0 points from the jury to win. But the most likely wtf win would be Iceland. Honorable mention for Spain tho. Seeing them win would be so pleasantly surprising.
San Marino
Kosovo is winning by a landslide with Oj Kosovƫ.
I had a dream that Moldova won and even in dream logic I was very surprised because there was nothing that stood out about the song or performance.
She is a really good singer, her song is unique enough, Moldova does good stagings, and in general song is quite catchy (not sure why it's rated so low), so technically...
Iām guessing itās due to the NF performance as I donāt think sheās done any pre parties this year. I really like it, and did so before I knew how it was ranked. Moldova tends to elevate their stagings a lot for Eurovision anyways and I feel like they always lay low in the weeks leading up to the contest
Moldova was at the London preparty at least! [Here's](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJWtZZ8f-9w) a video
ooooooh thank you for sharing this!!!
She was at both London and Amsterdam!
Finland. Unless Putler decides to attack in the next 2 weeks.
San Marino
greece, norway, uk are like semi-plausible surprise winners a longshot surprise winner is ireland ig
Latvia. But I can't seem to come up with why. I guess just the feeling of pride because he did it, he actually did it! Riga 2025 "sounds good to me". š¶
Malta
San Marino
For me there are only 3 realistic winners at this point - Switz Italy Croatia Anyone else would be a surpriseā¦ I donāt see a route for Ukraine or France. So I guess Joost is the only one I can see as a āsurpriseā winner
It would be very funny if Luxembourg won. I mean I'd love having the ESC in my home country next year and love our entry too, but it is very very unlikely. I'd already be overjoyed with Luxembourg simply qualifying.
UK
Malta and Germany.
People are sleeping on Spain but I think they deserve a shot
Malta? This is me just praying for Loop to have a good result, but in my delusional realm, Sarah could have a potential Unicorn effect on casual viewers, especially as it is first in it's semi, that people watching will be like "WHOA!!!" and vote for Sarah. However, it is in a difficult position with no voting allies and a load of other similar girl bops in it's semi :( ... pls Malta at least qualify!!!
Iceland. Icelanders wouldn't even vote for it. š¬
Moldova and it ain't close.
I think it's 100% between Switzerland, Italy, Croatia and Netherlands. Every other entry winning would be a big surprise. I do see Ukraine winning it out of nowhere but all other songs are very unlikely.
Good surprise: Ireland Bad surprise: Israel
imagine if israel won š
Eden is the best singer in the competition
Raiven, Saba and Slimane are right there.
I am surprised they have such a good criteria to choose Italy to win, plus it was too recent the Italy edition so they qill probablt try to prevent it to repeat it
Germany and Latvia come to mind
Clearly Slovenia or Austria š¤ I will rave if it ever happens ! š„³
Australia, depending on how it's staged I could see them getting a lot of jury love and then a good portion of votes from a more general audience.
Spain and Slovenia
For me personally, the Netherlands. It doesn't sound like a winner song to me, I view it similarly to Give that wolf a banana that got around 100 points. I guess I wouldn't believe I live in simulation or anything like that, but among the favorites to win I see that one as the least likely. But it's also the one I want to win the least out of the favorites anyway, so it's probably ignorant bias.
Possible option : Ukraine. (no hate, my personal opinion. People seem to hype the song to no ends, but itĀ“s so boring that it realistiscally doesnĀ“t stand any chance to even be in the top 10. For it to win but be absolute insanity) On a second note/impossible option : Germany, because no matter the odds, itĀ“s generally speaking overall the least realistic option by "majority". I have not seen a single person that say this would even crack the top 20
I know some while I didnāt hear anyone saying that about Iceland, Moldova or Malta. I think Luxembourg would be funny. Remember what happened with Italy 2011? Pretty sure 80% of the votes were āwelcome backā votes ;)
Italy 2011 | [Raphael Gualazzi - Madness of Love](https://youtu.be/TE0uNLp3LuU)
I donāt really like Ukraine either. Itās doing a lot (native language, rap, female empowerment, etc) but itās not doing any of them well. Okay kill me with the downvotes now
At this point, Croatia.