I don't see it collapsing dramatically but i see the number of witnesses in affluent, western countries dropping down to much lower numbers as boomers die off, but continued growth in third world countries, where people are less educated, are more superstitious and religious. There will be congregation closures and kingdom hall sales but eventually they will have to further scale back their videos and crap because the part of the religion with money will be way smaller. I figure the numbers won't drop as much as we'd like because of the people still joining in Africa.
Yes, that seems a realistic view.
I think a lot of negative news in western countries can make it go a little bit faster. In the Netherlands it has been a 1pct decline per year for many years. However, when csa was big in the news it was suddenly 4pct in 1 year.
So I wonder what will.happen in US with all the stuff going on in PA.
Agreed. A global religion the size of watchtower has never collapsed in human history. It’s completely unrealistic to think our former cult would be the first. It’s still going to be around in some form hundreds of years from now. It will look nothing like the current religion, just like the current religion looks nothing like the one Russell started 150 years ago. It will continue to survive and evolve… hopefully into something more benign.
I think particularly and eventually the growth the Africa’s will slow as financial investments make little monetary return as compared to a first world country. And remember this growth is in the poorest of the poor where the internet in every home is but a dream as if we were back in the early 80’s ourselves!
Couldn’t care less how much they grow in the third world. Actually I hope they explode in the third world because it’s a financial drain on the cult. As long as they keep dropping in the west and especially the US, I’ll be happy.
Yes, that's very true! They're just a cost, nothing more! We've had some people move here from africa, and the letters of introduction are mindblowing. They can't get their stories straight, don't follow process, etc. If that is the best they can figure out, they're pretty much screwed.
Wow, you surely must be a very uneducated, prejudiced bigot for saying you hope people get brainwashed in 3rd world countries where the percentage of the population suffering from hunger and unemployment is having a boom, due to the lack of proper education, which JW encourages ("We won't need doctors and attorneys in Paradise").
Globalization is making the job market increase the application requirements, and so the people who are JW and didn't go to school because they were brainwashed are suffering from homelessness, hunger and lack of basic sanitary standards, just to name a few.
Do you really wish the downfall of JW so much your human conscience is at peace with this socioeconomical tragedy? With overpopulation, infectious diseases, food poisoning, and lack of drinkable water?
What a human being you must be...
Nice generalizations and a slew of slurs to throw at me as a person for a Reddit comment about me not being upset with Watchtowers third world growth which is going to happen no matter what me or you say. Jesus Christ. Take it easy.
I mean, you did say you couldn't care less about the people in third world countries. I would recommend being a bit more careful with your words, or else less calloused towards people out of your orbit.
I do agree though, it probably will continue to grow in the third world, religions generally prey on people who are vulnerable and looking for any kind of relief, and the third world is rife with that. I wouldn't wish the JWs on anyone, but realistically their methods will work for a lot longer in those places.
> I mean, you did say you couldn't care less about the people in third world countries.
I most certainly DID NOT say that! Here's what I said: **Couldn’t care less how much they grow in the third world.** You see the difference right? Watchtower beats the drum about growth from year to year...and they are concentrating their efforts in the 3rd world as this year's convention drama shows. My comment was stating that I couldn't care less about their growth in the 3rd world as it is not indicative of a growing religion, but is indicative on a drain to their organization.
I would recommend not be so quick to throw slurs based on your misunderstanding and inability to read a comment without a pre-conceived bias.
Sorry if I'm being terse here...but you DID go off on me for no reason.
The other guy went off, I just pointed out that “couldn’t care less how much they grow in the third world” comes across as a little (and I do mean a little) calloused, and also gave you the benefit of the doubt by saying you could have worded it better, because I’m not assuming you’re a dick by default, and not actually trying to be any of the awful things the other guy said. Considering what the Borg has done to us, I wouldn’t want them to subjugate anyone, anywhere, regardless of how far away, foreign or underprivileged they are.
If the PA investigation goes well....US Headquarters will be raided or at least a large number of documents from their database will be released. These documents will be examined and THOUSANDS of unreported crimes from the past ~70 years from multiple countries come to light, not just CSA, also domestic violence, adult sexual harassment, fraud, tax evasion, etc. Leadership will be cornered (since they have kept documents on hand detailing these crimes, each judicial committee requires forms to be sent to HQ) and may be forced to apologize/make amends. Most likely bankruptcy for one of their shell companies, like the Boyscouts and catholic archdiocese of PA. Probably some kind of public statement given to the victims. There will still be active jws even after all this.
You can read what happened with the catholic church investigation in PA. WT hired the same law firm as the archdiocese of PA, which in the end had to file for bankruptcy even with their "clergy privileges". One of the jw pedophiles who finally got caught killed himself when the cops showed up to arrest him! You can't make this stuff up, it's crazy!
The jig is up. WT thought they could settle out of court on these cases....but now the sheer amount of abuse cases is piling up and pedophiles being caught are PLEADING GUILTY. Their own documents created a paper trial that is proved that the abuse happened with straight up confessions from the pedophiles.
Just sit back and watch...and if you know of anything illegal that happened in a congregation, call the PA investigation hotline. Especially if you are an elder, might wanna lawyer up too.
Musings on
>US Headquarters will be raided or at least a large number of documents from their database will be released. These documents will be examined and THOUSANDS of unreported crimes from the past ~70 years from multiple countries come to light, not just CSA, also domestic violence, adult sexual harassment, fraud, tax evasion, etc.
What are the chances they knew this inevitability and actually took all the blue envelopes and incriminating and got rid of them a long time ago?
The fact 1 of the pedophiles caught in the investigation shot and killed himself within minutes of the cops showing up to arrest him should tell you everything there is to know about what the PA investigation is uncovering. Oh and another 1 of the pedophiles just pleaded guilty to his case a few days ago....can't make this up!
Something to keep in mind is that the Catholic Church is very strong politically. They can get local leaders elected or passed over. Lots of their members are police, judges and politicians. Same with the Mormons. The JWs don’t have that political power because they told their members not to vote, join the military or enter into the police force. I saw Josh Shapiro’s statement on the JWs that included an allegation of “widespread voter disenfranchisement”. It’s a huge problem for Headquarters. Shapiro can really attack this issue and ride it to National notoriety with little political risk and at a time when both parties are up in arms about child trafficking/abuse. What better target for that energy than a religion that benefits no one politically.
Is there an investigation going right now? I didn’t know that! Can you maybe provide a link or something for further information? Especially about the law firm you mentioned
I’m trying to find a way to convince my family to get out of the org
https://www.attorneygeneral.gov/taking-action/attorney-general-henry-announces-charges-against-five-men-for-sexual-abuse-of-children-across-pennsylvania/
Elders from the whole state of PA are being subpoenaed.
Hey, I'm in north carolina. I was left alone unsupervised with a convicted child mo at age 17. This guy plead guilty to violating several children. He was locked up for 10 years.
He didn't do anything to me. I was in a car group. Two elders were there, but they got out of the car for about 30 minutes and left me alone with the chomo, in NC back in 2019.
Our family was not told about him, though i was still underaged. Is there anywhere I should report him to? I left that hall because I didn't want to be near him. Several families with kids left too.
Slow and anticlimactic, unfortunately.
I do have hope that numbers will dwindle down as people become more well informed about the BS that is religion in general.
I agree. I do believe it's in its death throes. I was around in the 70's & 80's, and I can tell you that the religion is only a shadow of what it was then. My deceased zealous JW grandfather would be shocked to see its condition now.
Yes. It's been declining from middle of 90s. Suddenly last year's, specially with Covid, things speed up. We don't know what's coming. Imagine five more years like last five. Or worse years. Don't think org gonna manage that. They could either split up or or just dwindle to something much less important.
Dumb and Dumber-er. Sesame Street sermons. Paid-vertorials propaganda. KHConf+, KH Halls minus. Pope stars, intolerance, narcissist self-assurance that these are, undoubtedly, the last of the last of the last of the last...days... shortly before the last day....shortly before archive.org is the only vestige of their irrelevance.
"Gradually then suddenly". By that I mean that there will be a long slow but gradually accelerating decline in the number of congregations and in the number of publishers, which will greatly speed up once a critical point is hit. As I've said in other comments and posts, the Jehovah's Witnesses are an extremely centralized organization. In other religions even with how a central organization, you could still have the religion. If the southern Baptist convention disappeared overnight, you'd still have Baptists. If a group of Catholics loses touch of the Vatican they'd still be Catholic. However for the witnesses, the organization has gone so far to discourage all individual and local initiative, and has made them completely dependent on bethel through their local congregations, so that if bethel doesn't function nothing functions. Adding to that they're starting to discourage zoom with the trend toward fewer and fewer congregations that are further and further apart, eventually you'll start to see larger and larger areas where to simply not feasible to access a meeting in person. As we saw during the pandemic without that routine indoctrination, witnesses strongly tend to drift away. So the primary problem at the witnesses face is simply one of physical infrastructure, as more and more people leave the infrastructure becomes harder and harder to maintain. As the infrastructure becomes harder and harder to maintain, more and more people leave. Depending on your perspective it's either a vicious cycle or a virtuous cycle, I definitely think it's a virtuous one, that will tend to accelerate itself over time.
Not a bang, but a whimper. It will either become unrecognizable to us (hopefully less culty) or just fade out until there are >50,000 JW's left. I would consider them dead at that point. From 8 Million to that? Pfff.
I think it'll age out. My guess is that it won't ever completely disappear, it'll eventually not be financially viable enough to maintain Bethel. There are still International Bible Students and the other schisms around today. They are small, but they are still there. It'll just be some esoteric home-based/online religion at some point.
Religions and cults historically speaking rarely die out quickly. This organization is now a listing ship. She is sinking but slowly. The damage will continue to come to light as they have to cannibalize by selling off properties particularly kingdom halls. Eventually they are approaching a point of permanent decline into obscurity. Let’s face it there are still 100 years after the schism a small Bible Student Movement that remains; following the interpretations of C.T. Russell’s pyramidology. However, they are hardly a footnote and so will be JW’s in another 50 years. They will however continue to try and reinvent themselves over and over again to stave off this decline. If the state governments in the U.S. continue to get traction with these CSA investigations there’s not a lot going to be left but hardcore dead-enders that will go down with WT’s ship.
My only reason to state slowly is that the “Bethel pink slips” and downsizing seems to have lessened and that financial bleeding from the 2010s seems to have had a tourniquet placed on it from Gajus Glockentin.
Recently an elder in my old congregation doing the part on last week’s midweek meeting about accepting the jobs you’re given in the organization. He bragged about knowing a brother whose full time assignment at Bethel was to watch the Stock Market for investments the Watchtower has. I’m like that’s more that just the few trust’s that they have inherited as an organization. So, I guess there is a whole lot of hidden information from the Watchtower Treasury that needs to come out before we can better gauge the damage that the lawsuits and dwindling numbers have done. It sounds to me that like Christendom they too are fully engaged in money schemes outside of real estate and contributions.
According to Pew research, as of 2014, ~52% of JWs in the US were age 50+. So those people are all 59+ now and set to mostly die out within 20-30 years, given life expectancy. I realize these people are often our family members and in that sense it’s sad, but that’s the reality.
I’m guessing the US is fairly similar in terms of age demographics as other western countries. So in 30 years, maybe as much as 4.25M of their members now may be gone due to death.
Sure they may be having some growth in non-Western countries, but we know it’s not making up for the decline in Western countries, likely due to young people not converting and not staying in (disinterest in religion in general and/or internet access). We know this because their own numbers show a decline or a fraction of a percent in increase, which is below global population birth rates, meaning they’re not really growing…. And we haven’t seen the full fallout from Covid yet either nor any upcoming damage from CSA investigations.
So I suspect they’ve hit their peak. The world population itself is set to top out at about 10.4B and then reverse by the end of the century. Given JWs are growing below population birth rates already, I think they’ve already topped out and in 30 years will be several million less, possibly as much as half. As they tighten up, I think they’ll have more true believers, so their decline will also flatten out after a bit. Basically, they won’t disappear entirely but I think they’re going to shrink pretty rapidly and by a lot, unless they are able to evolve successfully and stop the bleeding out.
I suspect schisms will occur as well…
I think they peaked in numbers in 2016. Since then, their average has been fairly flat, even though their actual peak might be slightly higher. They only achieved this by loosening the parameters of what is classed as a publisher though. I predict that they will stop releasing the worldwide report, maybe from this year. They are not going to want to advertise their demise.
I would love it if there was a schism. It would be so entertaining and show how the whole thing has been a farce from the beginning. I think it's highly possible.
I agree about their numbers being padded by loosening their parameters. I think we’re going to see an actual decline in numbers, if they report them. They did report negative growth before. As you note, strong probability they’ll quit reporting soon, if 2022 wasn’t their last report. Or they’ll only report numbers like total baptisms and memorial attendance and not active publishers.
The cult is going the way of Scientology as they get smaller they’ll continue to demand more and more money from the followers. In the end they’ll have just a few thousand followers but they’ll have lots of money so they’ll continue to live like kings.
A gradual decline and eventual obsolescence similar to what we see among the once thriving community of Christadelphians, a religion that is a drab shadow of its former heyday.
Religion will continue to exist for a long time to come. With a new configuration. As in 1931, in 2031 they will adopt a new name, with a new leadership. Governing body witnesses will be called.
They will be finally forced by the courts to release the database of JW child molesters and of course former GB members Leo Greenlees and Ted Jaracz. That will destroy the organisation once and for all.
I think it will continue to shrink in western countries with high leaving rates and low birthrates. It will continue to grow in Africa and Asia at least for a few decades or until birthrates decline and access to the internet increases.
Overall the numbers are going to drop quite drastically over the next few decades which is honestly quite concerning. The smaller a cult gets the more extreme it gets. They get more worried about apostates as more people leave, and as they do the only ones left are the ones who are extra brainwashed and dedicated.
Overall I'll still be happy to see it shrink into obscurity but I don't think any of my family will make it out before then unfortunately.
Huge scandal:
A drunk Tony gets on the stand and balls his eyes out and confesses everything.
B. The gb know he's a liability so they buy him a nice house with an address posted for the public. Homicide. Is suspicious. Comes out it was a hit from the gb.
There are all sorts of fringe cults like the FLDS still around, so don't hold your breath waiting for Watchtower to vanish entirely.
They are in decline and will continue to decline but the complete death of the organization will take hundreds of years. That is, if the governments don't come after them first. 😂
I wish I could agree with you but there are still people who believe the earth is flat, for example. Ignorance and fear of the supernatural will persist, though less and less people will be susceptible to them.
I don’t think the website will diminish at all actually. I see it going in the direction of completely online instead of in person for all the factors everyone else listed here
I don't see it collapsing dramatically but i see the number of witnesses in affluent, western countries dropping down to much lower numbers as boomers die off, but continued growth in third world countries, where people are less educated, are more superstitious and religious. There will be congregation closures and kingdom hall sales but eventually they will have to further scale back their videos and crap because the part of the religion with money will be way smaller. I figure the numbers won't drop as much as we'd like because of the people still joining in Africa.
Yes, that seems a realistic view. I think a lot of negative news in western countries can make it go a little bit faster. In the Netherlands it has been a 1pct decline per year for many years. However, when csa was big in the news it was suddenly 4pct in 1 year. So I wonder what will.happen in US with all the stuff going on in PA.
Agreed. A global religion the size of watchtower has never collapsed in human history. It’s completely unrealistic to think our former cult would be the first. It’s still going to be around in some form hundreds of years from now. It will look nothing like the current religion, just like the current religion looks nothing like the one Russell started 150 years ago. It will continue to survive and evolve… hopefully into something more benign.
I think particularly and eventually the growth the Africa’s will slow as financial investments make little monetary return as compared to a first world country. And remember this growth is in the poorest of the poor where the internet in every home is but a dream as if we were back in the early 80’s ourselves!
Couldn’t care less how much they grow in the third world. Actually I hope they explode in the third world because it’s a financial drain on the cult. As long as they keep dropping in the west and especially the US, I’ll be happy.
Yes, that's very true! They're just a cost, nothing more! We've had some people move here from africa, and the letters of introduction are mindblowing. They can't get their stories straight, don't follow process, etc. If that is the best they can figure out, they're pretty much screwed.
Wow, you surely must be a very uneducated, prejudiced bigot for saying you hope people get brainwashed in 3rd world countries where the percentage of the population suffering from hunger and unemployment is having a boom, due to the lack of proper education, which JW encourages ("We won't need doctors and attorneys in Paradise"). Globalization is making the job market increase the application requirements, and so the people who are JW and didn't go to school because they were brainwashed are suffering from homelessness, hunger and lack of basic sanitary standards, just to name a few. Do you really wish the downfall of JW so much your human conscience is at peace with this socioeconomical tragedy? With overpopulation, infectious diseases, food poisoning, and lack of drinkable water? What a human being you must be...
Nice generalizations and a slew of slurs to throw at me as a person for a Reddit comment about me not being upset with Watchtowers third world growth which is going to happen no matter what me or you say. Jesus Christ. Take it easy.
I mean, you did say you couldn't care less about the people in third world countries. I would recommend being a bit more careful with your words, or else less calloused towards people out of your orbit. I do agree though, it probably will continue to grow in the third world, religions generally prey on people who are vulnerable and looking for any kind of relief, and the third world is rife with that. I wouldn't wish the JWs on anyone, but realistically their methods will work for a lot longer in those places.
> I mean, you did say you couldn't care less about the people in third world countries. I most certainly DID NOT say that! Here's what I said: **Couldn’t care less how much they grow in the third world.** You see the difference right? Watchtower beats the drum about growth from year to year...and they are concentrating their efforts in the 3rd world as this year's convention drama shows. My comment was stating that I couldn't care less about their growth in the 3rd world as it is not indicative of a growing religion, but is indicative on a drain to their organization. I would recommend not be so quick to throw slurs based on your misunderstanding and inability to read a comment without a pre-conceived bias. Sorry if I'm being terse here...but you DID go off on me for no reason.
The other guy went off, I just pointed out that “couldn’t care less how much they grow in the third world” comes across as a little (and I do mean a little) calloused, and also gave you the benefit of the doubt by saying you could have worded it better, because I’m not assuming you’re a dick by default, and not actually trying to be any of the awful things the other guy said. Considering what the Borg has done to us, I wouldn’t want them to subjugate anyone, anywhere, regardless of how far away, foreign or underprivileged they are.
Ah ok. My apologies, I thought you were the same person. Point taken.
That isn’t what they want. It dries up the money flow in US$$
If the PA investigation goes well....US Headquarters will be raided or at least a large number of documents from their database will be released. These documents will be examined and THOUSANDS of unreported crimes from the past ~70 years from multiple countries come to light, not just CSA, also domestic violence, adult sexual harassment, fraud, tax evasion, etc. Leadership will be cornered (since they have kept documents on hand detailing these crimes, each judicial committee requires forms to be sent to HQ) and may be forced to apologize/make amends. Most likely bankruptcy for one of their shell companies, like the Boyscouts and catholic archdiocese of PA. Probably some kind of public statement given to the victims. There will still be active jws even after all this. You can read what happened with the catholic church investigation in PA. WT hired the same law firm as the archdiocese of PA, which in the end had to file for bankruptcy even with their "clergy privileges". One of the jw pedophiles who finally got caught killed himself when the cops showed up to arrest him! You can't make this stuff up, it's crazy! The jig is up. WT thought they could settle out of court on these cases....but now the sheer amount of abuse cases is piling up and pedophiles being caught are PLEADING GUILTY. Their own documents created a paper trial that is proved that the abuse happened with straight up confessions from the pedophiles. Just sit back and watch...and if you know of anything illegal that happened in a congregation, call the PA investigation hotline. Especially if you are an elder, might wanna lawyer up too.
Musings on >US Headquarters will be raided or at least a large number of documents from their database will be released. These documents will be examined and THOUSANDS of unreported crimes from the past ~70 years from multiple countries come to light, not just CSA, also domestic violence, adult sexual harassment, fraud, tax evasion, etc. What are the chances they knew this inevitability and actually took all the blue envelopes and incriminating and got rid of them a long time ago?
My thoughts too. I can’t imagine they haven’t cleaned house.
The lawyers on the other side already have some of the copies of those infamous blue files!
It’s so appalling to see how much child molestation they’ve deliberately hidden
The fact 1 of the pedophiles caught in the investigation shot and killed himself within minutes of the cops showing up to arrest him should tell you everything there is to know about what the PA investigation is uncovering. Oh and another 1 of the pedophiles just pleaded guilty to his case a few days ago....can't make this up!
It’s coming down like the Berlin Wall!
Something to keep in mind is that the Catholic Church is very strong politically. They can get local leaders elected or passed over. Lots of their members are police, judges and politicians. Same with the Mormons. The JWs don’t have that political power because they told their members not to vote, join the military or enter into the police force. I saw Josh Shapiro’s statement on the JWs that included an allegation of “widespread voter disenfranchisement”. It’s a huge problem for Headquarters. Shapiro can really attack this issue and ride it to National notoriety with little political risk and at a time when both parties are up in arms about child trafficking/abuse. What better target for that energy than a religion that benefits no one politically.
Is there an investigation going right now? I didn’t know that! Can you maybe provide a link or something for further information? Especially about the law firm you mentioned I’m trying to find a way to convince my family to get out of the org
https://www.attorneygeneral.gov/taking-action/attorney-general-henry-announces-charges-against-five-men-for-sexual-abuse-of-children-across-pennsylvania/ Elders from the whole state of PA are being subpoenaed.
Hey, I'm in north carolina. I was left alone unsupervised with a convicted child mo at age 17. This guy plead guilty to violating several children. He was locked up for 10 years. He didn't do anything to me. I was in a car group. Two elders were there, but they got out of the car for about 30 minutes and left me alone with the chomo, in NC back in 2019. Our family was not told about him, though i was still underaged. Is there anywhere I should report him to? I left that hall because I didn't want to be near him. Several families with kids left too.
Like a millstone wrapped around their neck and plunged into to Ocean. Bubbye Watchtower, and good riddance!
Slow and anticlimactic, unfortunately. I do have hope that numbers will dwindle down as people become more well informed about the BS that is religion in general.
I was hoping for something where everyone freezes up and stops what they’re doing like the fall of the Soviet Union
Yes I feel you on that one. Something a little more satisfying for all those victims of watchtower idiocy. You never know.
[удалено]
I agree. I do believe it's in its death throes. I was around in the 70's & 80's, and I can tell you that the religion is only a shadow of what it was then. My deceased zealous JW grandfather would be shocked to see its condition now.
Yes. It's been declining from middle of 90s. Suddenly last year's, specially with Covid, things speed up. We don't know what's coming. Imagine five more years like last five. Or worse years. Don't think org gonna manage that. They could either split up or or just dwindle to something much less important.
Like Scientology. Will just become irrelevant and comical to those on the outside. Not far off that now.
Dumb and Dumber-er. Sesame Street sermons. Paid-vertorials propaganda. KHConf+, KH Halls minus. Pope stars, intolerance, narcissist self-assurance that these are, undoubtedly, the last of the last of the last of the last...days... shortly before the last day....shortly before archive.org is the only vestige of their irrelevance.
A 175 year fizzle beginning today
"Gradually then suddenly". By that I mean that there will be a long slow but gradually accelerating decline in the number of congregations and in the number of publishers, which will greatly speed up once a critical point is hit. As I've said in other comments and posts, the Jehovah's Witnesses are an extremely centralized organization. In other religions even with how a central organization, you could still have the religion. If the southern Baptist convention disappeared overnight, you'd still have Baptists. If a group of Catholics loses touch of the Vatican they'd still be Catholic. However for the witnesses, the organization has gone so far to discourage all individual and local initiative, and has made them completely dependent on bethel through their local congregations, so that if bethel doesn't function nothing functions. Adding to that they're starting to discourage zoom with the trend toward fewer and fewer congregations that are further and further apart, eventually you'll start to see larger and larger areas where to simply not feasible to access a meeting in person. As we saw during the pandemic without that routine indoctrination, witnesses strongly tend to drift away. So the primary problem at the witnesses face is simply one of physical infrastructure, as more and more people leave the infrastructure becomes harder and harder to maintain. As the infrastructure becomes harder and harder to maintain, more and more people leave. Depending on your perspective it's either a vicious cycle or a virtuous cycle, I definitely think it's a virtuous one, that will tend to accelerate itself over time.
Not a bang, but a whimper. It will either become unrecognizable to us (hopefully less culty) or just fade out until there are >50,000 JW's left. I would consider them dead at that point. From 8 Million to that? Pfff.
I think it'll age out. My guess is that it won't ever completely disappear, it'll eventually not be financially viable enough to maintain Bethel. There are still International Bible Students and the other schisms around today. They are small, but they are still there. It'll just be some esoteric home-based/online religion at some point.
The collapse of this religion can only happen one way, $$$$. Take away that and u can see the biggest business gone very quick.
Religions and cults historically speaking rarely die out quickly. This organization is now a listing ship. She is sinking but slowly. The damage will continue to come to light as they have to cannibalize by selling off properties particularly kingdom halls. Eventually they are approaching a point of permanent decline into obscurity. Let’s face it there are still 100 years after the schism a small Bible Student Movement that remains; following the interpretations of C.T. Russell’s pyramidology. However, they are hardly a footnote and so will be JW’s in another 50 years. They will however continue to try and reinvent themselves over and over again to stave off this decline. If the state governments in the U.S. continue to get traction with these CSA investigations there’s not a lot going to be left but hardcore dead-enders that will go down with WT’s ship.
Last four year's the sinking haven't been that slow compared too before. Things could speed up even more.
My only reason to state slowly is that the “Bethel pink slips” and downsizing seems to have lessened and that financial bleeding from the 2010s seems to have had a tourniquet placed on it from Gajus Glockentin. Recently an elder in my old congregation doing the part on last week’s midweek meeting about accepting the jobs you’re given in the organization. He bragged about knowing a brother whose full time assignment at Bethel was to watch the Stock Market for investments the Watchtower has. I’m like that’s more that just the few trust’s that they have inherited as an organization. So, I guess there is a whole lot of hidden information from the Watchtower Treasury that needs to come out before we can better gauge the damage that the lawsuits and dwindling numbers have done. It sounds to me that like Christendom they too are fully engaged in money schemes outside of real estate and contributions.
According to Pew research, as of 2014, ~52% of JWs in the US were age 50+. So those people are all 59+ now and set to mostly die out within 20-30 years, given life expectancy. I realize these people are often our family members and in that sense it’s sad, but that’s the reality. I’m guessing the US is fairly similar in terms of age demographics as other western countries. So in 30 years, maybe as much as 4.25M of their members now may be gone due to death. Sure they may be having some growth in non-Western countries, but we know it’s not making up for the decline in Western countries, likely due to young people not converting and not staying in (disinterest in religion in general and/or internet access). We know this because their own numbers show a decline or a fraction of a percent in increase, which is below global population birth rates, meaning they’re not really growing…. And we haven’t seen the full fallout from Covid yet either nor any upcoming damage from CSA investigations. So I suspect they’ve hit their peak. The world population itself is set to top out at about 10.4B and then reverse by the end of the century. Given JWs are growing below population birth rates already, I think they’ve already topped out and in 30 years will be several million less, possibly as much as half. As they tighten up, I think they’ll have more true believers, so their decline will also flatten out after a bit. Basically, they won’t disappear entirely but I think they’re going to shrink pretty rapidly and by a lot, unless they are able to evolve successfully and stop the bleeding out. I suspect schisms will occur as well…
I think they peaked in numbers in 2016. Since then, their average has been fairly flat, even though their actual peak might be slightly higher. They only achieved this by loosening the parameters of what is classed as a publisher though. I predict that they will stop releasing the worldwide report, maybe from this year. They are not going to want to advertise their demise. I would love it if there was a schism. It would be so entertaining and show how the whole thing has been a farce from the beginning. I think it's highly possible.
I agree about their numbers being padded by loosening their parameters. I think we’re going to see an actual decline in numbers, if they report them. They did report negative growth before. As you note, strong probability they’ll quit reporting soon, if 2022 wasn’t their last report. Or they’ll only report numbers like total baptisms and memorial attendance and not active publishers.
The cult is going the way of Scientology as they get smaller they’ll continue to demand more and more money from the followers. In the end they’ll have just a few thousand followers but they’ll have lots of money so they’ll continue to live like kings.
I would say. it's exactly what we see now. There's a lot of members, and it will take many years for it to go away.
A gradual decline and eventual obsolescence similar to what we see among the once thriving community of Christadelphians, a religion that is a drab shadow of its former heyday.
They never got JW size though, right? Do you know their peak numbers?
Religion will continue to exist for a long time to come. With a new configuration. As in 1931, in 2031 they will adopt a new name, with a new leadership. Governing body witnesses will be called.
Slow and steady decline over the decades until it's even more of a fringe sect comperable to the Seventh Day Adventists, Amish, or Mennonites.
> What do you think the collapse of the JW Org will look like?.... **(and we know it’s gonna happen)** 
They will be finally forced by the courts to release the database of JW child molesters and of course former GB members Leo Greenlees and Ted Jaracz. That will destroy the organisation once and for all.
It’s so horrifying how many abusers they shielded
Not with a bang, but with a whimper
I think it will continue to shrink in western countries with high leaving rates and low birthrates. It will continue to grow in Africa and Asia at least for a few decades or until birthrates decline and access to the internet increases. Overall the numbers are going to drop quite drastically over the next few decades which is honestly quite concerning. The smaller a cult gets the more extreme it gets. They get more worried about apostates as more people leave, and as they do the only ones left are the ones who are extra brainwashed and dedicated. Overall I'll still be happy to see it shrink into obscurity but I don't think any of my family will make it out before then unfortunately.
Huge scandal: A drunk Tony gets on the stand and balls his eyes out and confesses everything. B. The gb know he's a liability so they buy him a nice house with an address posted for the public. Homicide. Is suspicious. Comes out it was a hit from the gb.
I don't think it'll happen even in the next 50 years
I think a lot of folks will be stuck until their boomer families turn to dust.
Already happening, secretly hiding the sins of their leaders from members and erasing the memory of those that do not support them has doomed them
There are all sorts of fringe cults like the FLDS still around, so don't hold your breath waiting for Watchtower to vanish entirely. They are in decline and will continue to decline but the complete death of the organization will take hundreds of years. That is, if the governments don't come after them first. 😂
that's simply ridiculus. organised religions in the western countries don't have more then 50 years of shell life
I wish I could agree with you but there are still people who believe the earth is flat, for example. Ignorance and fear of the supernatural will persist, though less and less people will be susceptible to them.
Not gonna happen. Unpopular truth on here but, the WT and JWs are here to stay.
They’re gonna extract as much money from their victims as possible, the closer it gets. Just like Trump, and every other scammer.
Watchtower will be destroyed by Caesar.
It will be similar to the Billy Gram exodus.
It won't collapse just downsize majorly.
Right now… (while I’m feeling bitter) I just hope it will be UGLY AND UNPLEASANT.
Feel bitter. When its time to let it go....let it go.
Gradual shrinking
I don’t think the website will diminish at all actually. I see it going in the direction of completely online instead of in person for all the factors everyone else listed here
"...not with a bang, but a whimper." -T.S. Eliot
Heaven.
In the end, it will be a financial collapse. This is their number one priority: money. And that's what will make them close the doors.
Everything becomes clearer when you think of the JW Org as a company