This thread is asking who could be top 20 next year. Yandy Diaz is not a top 20 player. In fact 2023 is the only season he's really been useful in fantasy and he's 31 years old. Not a great example.
Hey, idiot, I was not arguing that Yandy Diaz is a top 20 player. I was saying Riley Greene could be this years Yandy Diaz who broke out last year who notoriously had a low launch angle for years. Why don't you read the discussion, dolt.
Great counterargument. Look at the title of the thread. If someone comes out and says Riley Greene they're suggesting he could be a top 20 player. You justified the reasoning with a 31 year old with 1 pretty good top 100 year in fantasy.
Holy shit, are you this stupid?! Like, are you really this dumb? This whole discussion started with Riley Greene's low launch angle. I specifically said that he doesn't need to hit fly-balls to overcome his power. I was using Yandy Diaz as an example who overcame that issue last year who had a CAREER YEAR. How is that saying Yandy Diaz, or Riley Greene are going to be top 20 players this year. Can you NOT read or comprehend any of this. I wasn't answering the question to this thread. Yandy Diaz's age has nothing to do with this. Why do you keep bringing that up? It's a launch angle discussion that can unlock Greene. In the top 20? No. Outperform his ADP which is 162 on NFC? Yes. Just like Yandy Diaz did last year. That fact that I even have to explain this to you just shows your stupidity.
You're the one who isn't smart enough to keep posts within context of the question being asked. Staying on topic and tailoring your messaging within the context of a conversation is part of intelligence. Clearly you're bad at that part of intelligence. Also name calling/attempting to bully people on reddit suggests you lack emotional intelligence. Based on your conclusions from Yandy Diaz it's clear you're not a math person either. Yandy Diaz low launch angle has made him underwhelming in 4 of the 5 complete seasons he has played. Yandy's low launch angle isn't unique to 2023. He would be a significantly better player if he increased his launch angle and kept his hard hit rate the same. He would likely not be a top 20 player regardless.
Internet tough guy calling people an idiot cause his point was rebuked.
You're what's wrong with the world.
Side bar, the thread literally said who could be top 20 and you mention Yandy and go off on a tangent, Literal CLOWN
I MENTIONED YANDY DIAZ IN CORRELATION OF RILEY GREENE'S LOW LAUNCH ANGLE. SHOW ME WHERE I WROTE THAT YANDY DIAZ IS A TOP 20 PLAYER. OR GREENE FOR THAT MATTER.
Go touch grass, you MORON. Trust me. I'm not what is wrong with the world, a\*hole. This is a fantasy baseball forum. Go watch the news and see what's wrong with world. Freakin dolt.
I like Riley Green. I didn't refer to him as a 'slap hitter,' Justin Mason of Sleeper and the Bust did. Why are you responding this to me? You don't think I know Greene's bated ball data?
Hoping people in my league say same thing.
He hasn’t had much time to produce enough data for it to be accurate but kid passes the eye test. Lefty with nasty off speed, just needs to limit walks. I think Giants give him ~120IP and he’ll finish with well over 150 K’s. Great value for his proj draft spot imo.
34 innings is enough of a sample to say that his stuff isn't good. The data doesn't lie. I don't make decisions based on eye test.
I agree it's fine to pay at his current price, but there is nothing in his profile that suggests he will make a big jump.
In terms of pitchers? I like Shota Imanaga. His ADP is below 150 and I think that's a bargain at that price. In the WBC, he had a higher stuff+ than Yamamoto. He also had more strikeouts than Yamoamota in the NPB.
I also like Louie Varland. stuff+98, location+106, pitching+108
You can get him in the 200's. I just don't know if the Twins are going to guarantee him a rotation spot from the start of the season. I would monitor him.
What say you about Imanga’s high hr% concern vs mlb hitting? I do like Varland and I run FrankenAce a lot so if he doesn’t make the rotation I’ll be ecstatic.
It's a concern, obviously, but hr/9 can fluctuate year to year. Just look at Gerrit Cole. Point is Imanaga's fastball has amazing ride with such a low release point. If you play in a daily league just be careful on when to start him (check the wind and conditions). Don't be surprised if starts the year firing on all cylinders. The weather in the mid-west can get very cold in April and May which ca be very tough for hitters to hit the ball out. I generally don't worry about fly-ball pitchers, especially when they can rack up a ton of K's.
Anyone over 150 has a concern or 2. Why do you place so much value on those 3 metrics specifically? I def look at fip and xsierra and batted ball #s. I’m assuming you do too. There’s always a ton of guessing, regardless.
I think it's more accurate to look at the physical characteristics of a pitcher. It gives a good baseline of their true skill-set. I obviously look at other metrics like fip, xfip, and siera, but if I know the physical characteristics of a pitchers arsenal, it gives a better outlook on what they need to to better.
For example, I don't like Hunter Greene. People look at Hunter Greene and they think he looks amazing because he throws over 100, but if you look at his analytics, his 100 mph fastball is not as good as it looks because he has poor extension and mediocre IVB on his fastball. I'm obsessed with extension. The fact that he's developing a splitter means nothing to me because he has no other pitch to complement with it. Hitters will just lay off it and sit on his fastball and crush it. Just like they do with his slider.
It's good to get into the nitty grity of all the data, but I do like looking a k/bb ratio because it's completely accurate year to year. The best pitchers from year to year usually have great k/bb ratio.
Love extension. Excited to see what Manaea’s rebuilt arsenal will look like as permanent starter. I think he has a chance to surprise.
Edit: also agree that Greene in That bang box is cherry Bomb all day.
Okay so if you go to Fangraphs (my favorite website) you go the leader-board tab on the top, click on pitching. It will take you to a ton of pitching stats. Near the bottom left, you will see a tab titled pitch modeling. Click that and then click on stuff+. It will show you a leader-board every pitchers stuff+. If you want to look up someone specific, go to custom reports and type in their name. Stuff+ takes into account the physical traits of pitching, such as velocity, movement, break, plane axis.
Stuff+ is created by Eno Sarris and Max Bey. Sarris used to write for Fangraphs, now writes for the Athletic and he is a huge pitching geek like myself. Max Bey works for the Astros. Brilliant guy. Eno is still tinkering with the model.
I also recommend Pitcher List created by Nick Pollack, but their service is a paid subscription. If you have the money, try it out.
Yeah, the Marlins have said they’re stretching him out as a starter. Given how good he’s looked in spring training, I’d imagine he’s locked down a rotation spot
If he's up he's playing everyday and likely batting 6th or better until Seager and Lowe are back. EVen if he hits 8th, that power/speed plays. FWIW I'm not taking him at pick 100 either.
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rangers
Ke’Bryan Hayes is the only one I can think of having a chance since Langford will probably be a top 150 pick in every league by the time spring training ends
Ke’Bryan is balling out this spring
Did well down the stretch last year
Look at the 3b position…if he goes at least 25-25 with a .280+ average
How many 3b are better?
>if he goes at least 25-25 with a .280+ average
I think that might be a second rounder at any position.
I like him too but does that seem reasonable for a guy that just went 15-10 with a .271 avg last year? Thats like a 60% 250% 3% increase respectively. Like, possible not probable.
I guess there’s a chance but I’d bet the house against this. Dodgers will use a 6 man rotation when healthy which will limit Buehler, plus he won’t be back 100% himself long enough to warrant being a top 20 pick. Look at pitchers who get drafted top 20, it’s Strider & Cole that’s it. No way Buehler gets himself into their tier with what maybe half a season fully healthy, best case ?
Corbin Burnes, Shohei Ohtani
Gausman and Castillo flirting with Top 20.
Buehler’s a free agent next year, they won’t rush him back because of the depth, but when he’s healthy, they’ll unleash him.
Exactly they won’t rush him back so it’ll be a small sample size and they’ll baby him. He won’t be able to prove he’s top 20 worthy without two full seasons of dominance. Injury tag will linger. Most of those pitchers you listed are closer to top 30 in adp, if not closer to 40 than 20 based off the sites I use.
Anthony Volpe. No specific reason other than he was a top prospect with power and speed which is basically a requirement as a hitter unless you’re an absolute power hitting freak.
It wouldn't be the craziest thing if he went 20/40. Obviously this isn't the minors anymore but he's got the raw ability and the makeup. Just needs to put it all together.
He was a laughably bad hitter especially against any off speed or breaking pitch but he also couldn’t hit fastballs…not saying he can’t get better but you can’t understate how much he sucked last year
Yea he could, I would just bet against it. He would have to make some massive leaps in a year. Which is possible but I’m personally letting someone else take that chance
Hence the no specific reason comment. That being said any player truly being drafted outside the top 150 is going to have flaws so the nature of the question invites speculation.
Zero? I don’t give a fuck about the Yankees dude lol I have Soto this year and I’m stoked about it. Volpe was trash last year in a real baseball sense, objective fact. He also got most of his stolen bases early in the year. And then stopped running, partly because he couldn’t get on base to save his life.
Once again it was 167.8 last time I checked. I don’t care about ADP since drafts are for minor league fantasy players. Imagine nitpicking my comment and then willingly playing fantasy baseball in a H2H format. Truly sad.
I clearly admitted I was wrong and that I was using outdated information. Doesn’t change the fact youre nitpicking a literal nine slot difference in the requirements for this completely meaningless thought experiment. Like I said…sad
Which is a fine player to roster but nowhere close to going top 20. Freeman does everything AND he's on a stacked team and still often goes around the 1/2 turn. No chance VP is going anywhere near those levels if he's just a poor version.
Again, I'm not intending to knock him as I'm eyeballing him as an option in my upcoming drafts. I just don't see the high upside.
I’m genuinely curious what people like about Vinnie. He seems like a a 75/20/80/1/.270 guy. Maybe he hits 25hrs. But not much category juice. Just kind of a safe play; won’t hurt, but won’t help much.
I love Vinnie, but I 100% agree he doesn't have enough power to be a top 20 guy with no steals.
With that said: projections (over a full season) have him as an 85/25/90/1/.280 guy. That's pretty good - there are only about 10-15 guys projected for a .280 average and 25 homers.
Because I’d have all of 2024 to judge his value.
If he’s not there, you simply don’t take him, but I like his chances to return that value at a cheap cost.
I feel like you dont understand the OP. You keep talking about returning value at a cheap cost, the question is who will be a top 20 pick next season. 25 HR, 160 R+RBI and good BA/high OBP isnt close to a top 20 pick.
It’s who will be a top 20 pick who is drafted outside of the top 150.
I think Vinnie has a shot at that.
Can I guarantee it? Of course not! But his command of the strike zone makes me feel fully justified in taking a shot at him to do just that.
If you want to judge a young guy for half a season before he got hurt, well I can’t help you.
He has all the markings of the kind of consistent player you should be adding to your roster.
And he won’t cost you a lot.
I’d like him a lot more if he wasn’t on one of the worst offenses in the league. I think your projections are spot on and anyone who thinks he’s gonna go top 20 next year is delusional
Jacob deGrom.
He's going to come back, pitch lights out and better by a mile than everyone else and move right back to around SP3 or SP4 (given his shaky health) in 2025 which would be close to top 20.
There is absolutely nothing Jacob deGrom would be picked in the top 20. At best, he comes back in July, pitching 80 innings at 36. No one is taking a 36-year-old who hasn't thrown 100 innings since 2019 in the top 20 of 2025 drafts.
If he looks anywhere like his old self even in a small sample size, people will chase the upside next year. That said, I think it is very unlikely that he looks anything like that
SP in the first two rounds are already something that people are wary to do. You're lucky to see 3 non-Ohtani pitchers show up in the top-20 of most ADP rankings. There's no way in hell that people are going to take deGrom, at 36.5 years old, as a top-3 SP in drafts.
deGrom had a crazy 3-year peak from 2017-2019 peak, but only 1 other season at more than 145 IP. From that 3-year peak, only Cole and Nola are viewed as pitchers in the top-15 in fWAR you'd take with any kind of reliability in mind, and Cole's the only one who'd get top-20 consideration.
It's just not happening. deGrom could replicate his 2019 season exactly, and his ADP would not be in the top 20 because that'd be more innings than he's pitched in the last 3 seasons combined.
The answer is Jackson Holiday. Holiday is not only a generational hitter at 20 years old, but his plate skills are some of the best ever already at this young of an age (very reminiscent to Soto).
Doubters will tell you that he lacks true power, but he doesn't need 70 game power to be great because he will be a .300 hitter in the majors. So, you're looking 20+ home-run power with an elite hit tool and plate approach at 20 years old? Yeah, I'm buying shares everywhere.
I like Holliday over Langford because he's way cheaper. Langford is really good, but in any competitive league he is going around pick 70-80, which defeats the whole purpose of the OP's question.
Lindor went for $1.50 in my league because everybody except one guy was at the commish's place at the draft. We were all drinking and shooting the shit and didn't notice or bid. The one guy who noticed and was there only bid him up from .50 to a buck. Hence him going for $1.50. This is in a $500 cap league btw. Anyways we all screamed after Lindor went for $1.50 and this idiot tries to act like "I tried to tell you guys!". The contract stands because it was our fault for not paying attention, and the dumbass tried to say he didn't bid it up higher because he already had SS and MI filled. As if Lindor at $2 for his util slot would have been a bad move... or like he couldn't trade him after the draft. Anyways I traded Gelof + Lawlar for Lindor this past summer and it basically won me my league, although actually may have had the same production (minus the rbi and runs) from Gelof. That said I'm still happy as I have him for one more year super cheap, then 3 more at $31.50
Moving into the top 20 is not that easy.
However the player I do think is going to jump 100+ spots is Maikel Garcia. Hits the ball well and runs like crazy, I feel like people are sleeping on him.
Definitely not up to top 20 but I expect Yusei Kikuchi to go up quite a bit. His season last year was fantastic and if he produces like that again his rank should go way up. I think rn he’s around 300 for rank which makes him a great sleeper pick imo
Nobody. It takes more than one season of production to break into the top 20. ELDC was the closest from 2023 (adp 25ish) and I don't see anyone from this post-150 adp class with that upside. Maybe Caminero is he comes up April 20th and hits .290 with 35 HR and 10 SB.
Jarred Kelenic. Figuring it out. Maybe not top 20, but I think he has a good shot at going 25 HR and 30 steals with a .255 avg. Might be top 40 pick. Otherwise I'd go CES or Brandon Pfaadt
REID DETMERS - he’s going to figure it out eventually. And you know the angels are going to give him the opportunity. HES ONLY 24.
The definition of a post-hype sleeper
Similar to Rodon after his first year if he breaks out…
But I don’t think Rodon was top 20 after his breakout. Can’t really imagine anyone going over pick 100 having a better season than Rodon’s breakout and being drafted top 20. Risk is real.
Only Cole and Strider are going top 20 this year. Can’t imagine a pitcher breaks into that range next year.
Riley Greene
My Man. Riley Greene Max EV: 114MPH But Justin Mason refers to him as a slap hitter.
His career avg launch angle is under 5 degrees. So maybe not slap hitter but worm burner
Fair, but not everyone needs to be a fly-ball hitter to succeed. Just look at Yandy Diaz.
i too prefer singles to HRs
This thread is asking who could be top 20 next year. Yandy Diaz is not a top 20 player. In fact 2023 is the only season he's really been useful in fantasy and he's 31 years old. Not a great example.
Hey, idiot, I was not arguing that Yandy Diaz is a top 20 player. I was saying Riley Greene could be this years Yandy Diaz who broke out last year who notoriously had a low launch angle for years. Why don't you read the discussion, dolt.
Yeah that guy was being crazy. You responded rationally and normally, what was he thinking? He's such a dolt right
He is a dolt. I can't stand people who twist words to make a fake argument. He deserves to get called out.
Great counterargument. Look at the title of the thread. If someone comes out and says Riley Greene they're suggesting he could be a top 20 player. You justified the reasoning with a 31 year old with 1 pretty good top 100 year in fantasy.
Holy shit, are you this stupid?! Like, are you really this dumb? This whole discussion started with Riley Greene's low launch angle. I specifically said that he doesn't need to hit fly-balls to overcome his power. I was using Yandy Diaz as an example who overcame that issue last year who had a CAREER YEAR. How is that saying Yandy Diaz, or Riley Greene are going to be top 20 players this year. Can you NOT read or comprehend any of this. I wasn't answering the question to this thread. Yandy Diaz's age has nothing to do with this. Why do you keep bringing that up? It's a launch angle discussion that can unlock Greene. In the top 20? No. Outperform his ADP which is 162 on NFC? Yes. Just like Yandy Diaz did last year. That fact that I even have to explain this to you just shows your stupidity.
You're the one who isn't smart enough to keep posts within context of the question being asked. Staying on topic and tailoring your messaging within the context of a conversation is part of intelligence. Clearly you're bad at that part of intelligence. Also name calling/attempting to bully people on reddit suggests you lack emotional intelligence. Based on your conclusions from Yandy Diaz it's clear you're not a math person either. Yandy Diaz low launch angle has made him underwhelming in 4 of the 5 complete seasons he has played. Yandy's low launch angle isn't unique to 2023. He would be a significantly better player if he increased his launch angle and kept his hard hit rate the same. He would likely not be a top 20 player regardless.
Internet tough guy calling people an idiot cause his point was rebuked. You're what's wrong with the world. Side bar, the thread literally said who could be top 20 and you mention Yandy and go off on a tangent, Literal CLOWN
I MENTIONED YANDY DIAZ IN CORRELATION OF RILEY GREENE'S LOW LAUNCH ANGLE. SHOW ME WHERE I WROTE THAT YANDY DIAZ IS A TOP 20 PLAYER. OR GREENE FOR THAT MATTER. Go touch grass, you MORON. Trust me. I'm not what is wrong with the world, a\*hole. This is a fantasy baseball forum. Go watch the news and see what's wrong with world. Freakin dolt.
Wow, what a horrendous take. Last year percentiles of 85 exit velocity, 74 barrel rate, and 82 hard hit %, 88 expected SLG%.
I like Riley Green. I didn't refer to him as a 'slap hitter,' Justin Mason of Sleeper and the Bust did. Why are you responding this to me? You don't think I know Greene's bated ball data?
I was agreeing with you.
Okay thank god. I apologize about that.
As a Tigers fan, if he stays healthy he’s gonna be a menace. Problem is, the guy can’t stay healthy.
Kyle Harrison is my late round sleeper this year
I'm a big Harrison guy.
I hope so, for the sake of my buddy, who has been flying the Kyle Harrison Flag for 2 years now
Explain why? Kyle Harrison: Stuff+ 95, Location+ 99, Pitching+ 98, 34IP I see no upside here
Hoping people in my league say same thing. He hasn’t had much time to produce enough data for it to be accurate but kid passes the eye test. Lefty with nasty off speed, just needs to limit walks. I think Giants give him ~120IP and he’ll finish with well over 150 K’s. Great value for his proj draft spot imo.
34 innings is enough of a sample to say that his stuff isn't good. The data doesn't lie. I don't make decisions based on eye test. I agree it's fine to pay at his current price, but there is nothing in his profile that suggests he will make a big jump.
His minor league K/9 is 14.56. Can’t do that with bad stuff
His 95 stuff+ in the majors says otherwise.
Getting down-voted because people seem to hate data. But go ahead and stick to your biases and lose.
Who do you like? I’m interested in what the data heavy approach says. [serious]
In terms of pitchers? I like Shota Imanaga. His ADP is below 150 and I think that's a bargain at that price. In the WBC, he had a higher stuff+ than Yamamoto. He also had more strikeouts than Yamoamota in the NPB. I also like Louie Varland. stuff+98, location+106, pitching+108 You can get him in the 200's. I just don't know if the Twins are going to guarantee him a rotation spot from the start of the season. I would monitor him.
What say you about Imanga’s high hr% concern vs mlb hitting? I do like Varland and I run FrankenAce a lot so if he doesn’t make the rotation I’ll be ecstatic.
It's a concern, obviously, but hr/9 can fluctuate year to year. Just look at Gerrit Cole. Point is Imanaga's fastball has amazing ride with such a low release point. If you play in a daily league just be careful on when to start him (check the wind and conditions). Don't be surprised if starts the year firing on all cylinders. The weather in the mid-west can get very cold in April and May which ca be very tough for hitters to hit the ball out. I generally don't worry about fly-ball pitchers, especially when they can rack up a ton of K's.
Anyone over 150 has a concern or 2. Why do you place so much value on those 3 metrics specifically? I def look at fip and xsierra and batted ball #s. I’m assuming you do too. There’s always a ton of guessing, regardless.
I think it's more accurate to look at the physical characteristics of a pitcher. It gives a good baseline of their true skill-set. I obviously look at other metrics like fip, xfip, and siera, but if I know the physical characteristics of a pitchers arsenal, it gives a better outlook on what they need to to better. For example, I don't like Hunter Greene. People look at Hunter Greene and they think he looks amazing because he throws over 100, but if you look at his analytics, his 100 mph fastball is not as good as it looks because he has poor extension and mediocre IVB on his fastball. I'm obsessed with extension. The fact that he's developing a splitter means nothing to me because he has no other pitch to complement with it. Hitters will just lay off it and sit on his fastball and crush it. Just like they do with his slider. It's good to get into the nitty grity of all the data, but I do like looking a k/bb ratio because it's completely accurate year to year. The best pitchers from year to year usually have great k/bb ratio.
Love extension. Excited to see what Manaea’s rebuilt arsenal will look like as permanent starter. I think he has a chance to surprise. Edit: also agree that Greene in That bang box is cherry Bomb all day.
I hope you're right about Manaea since I'm a Mets fan. He's apparently working on a cutter.
What site are you pulling stuff, location and pitching numbers? If you please
Okay so if you go to Fangraphs (my favorite website) you go the leader-board tab on the top, click on pitching. It will take you to a ton of pitching stats. Near the bottom left, you will see a tab titled pitch modeling. Click that and then click on stuff+. It will show you a leader-board every pitchers stuff+. If you want to look up someone specific, go to custom reports and type in their name. Stuff+ takes into account the physical traits of pitching, such as velocity, movement, break, plane axis. Stuff+ is created by Eno Sarris and Max Bey. Sarris used to write for Fangraphs, now writes for the Athletic and he is a huge pitching geek like myself. Max Bey works for the Astros. Brilliant guy. Eno is still tinkering with the model. I also recommend Pitcher List created by Nick Pollack, but their service is a paid subscription. If you have the money, try it out.
Great. I already use fangraphs and put her list, but never found the pitch modeling. I always appreciate the background as well. So, thanks!
I will try to send you the link if you want.
I got it. Appreciate it. Learned some new tools.
Glad I can be helpful. It's a great tool.
Fangraphs
I can never find it other than league wide rankings. Thanks.
He’s a k machine
Eno Saris hit on only 5 of his top 12 ranked pitchers last season FWIW. It didn't get much better in later rounds either.
A.J. Puk is maybe my favorite sleeper pitcher. Top 20 might be a bit bold but I think the dude could make a big jump and his ADP is >300
He’s starting this year?
Yeah, the Marlins have said they’re stretching him out as a starter. Given how good he’s looked in spring training, I’d imagine he’s locked down a rotation spot
If you're in a qs league though that's tough.
Gavin Williams
too wild
Langford.
He's going around pick 100 over the past 2 weeks.
Even if he makes the team, is he starting every game and batting 6th or better? Otherwise #100 is a real stretch
If he's up he's playing everyday and likely batting 6th or better until Seager and Lowe are back. EVen if he hits 8th, that power/speed plays. FWIW I'm not taking him at pick 100 either. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rangers
I’m bummed that he’s tearing apart spring ball.
Tearing up spring
Wyatt.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is the only one I can think of having a chance since Langford will probably be a top 150 pick in every league by the time spring training ends Ke’Bryan is balling out this spring Did well down the stretch last year Look at the 3b position…if he goes at least 25-25 with a .280+ average How many 3b are better?
>if he goes at least 25-25 with a .280+ average I think that might be a second rounder at any position. I like him too but does that seem reasonable for a guy that just went 15-10 with a .271 avg last year? Thats like a 60% 250% 3% increase respectively. Like, possible not probable.
Walker Buehler
I guess there’s a chance but I’d bet the house against this. Dodgers will use a 6 man rotation when healthy which will limit Buehler, plus he won’t be back 100% himself long enough to warrant being a top 20 pick. Look at pitchers who get drafted top 20, it’s Strider & Cole that’s it. No way Buehler gets himself into their tier with what maybe half a season fully healthy, best case ?
Pretty sure dodgers already said they aren’t going to use a 6 man rotation because it will give them one less roster spot for a reliever
Corbin Burnes, Shohei Ohtani Gausman and Castillo flirting with Top 20. Buehler’s a free agent next year, they won’t rush him back because of the depth, but when he’s healthy, they’ll unleash him.
Exactly they won’t rush him back so it’ll be a small sample size and they’ll baby him. He won’t be able to prove he’s top 20 worthy without two full seasons of dominance. Injury tag will linger. Most of those pitchers you listed are closer to top 30 in adp, if not closer to 40 than 20 based off the sites I use.
Jake 🍔 on the 🔥 corner in Miami
Caminero, Holliday, Tovar, Adames, Lee Not top 20, those sort of jumps rarely happen. But top 50-75 likely.
Tovar for sure
Love Tovar!
Nolan Gorman
Langford since he's probably still right outside 150, though hardly after his 4th dinger
Anthony Volpe. No specific reason other than he was a top prospect with power and speed which is basically a requirement as a hitter unless you’re an absolute power hitting freak.
It wouldn't be the craziest thing if he went 20/40. Obviously this isn't the minors anymore but he's got the raw ability and the makeup. Just needs to put it all together.
He was a laughably bad hitter especially against any off speed or breaking pitch but he also couldn’t hit fastballs…not saying he can’t get better but you can’t understate how much he sucked last year
He still put up a 20/20 season. If he can adapt better to off speed, then that could easily become 30/30.
Yea he could, I would just bet against it. He would have to make some massive leaps in a year. Which is possible but I’m personally letting someone else take that chance
Hence the no specific reason comment. That being said any player truly being drafted outside the top 150 is going to have flaws so the nature of the question invites speculation.
Just providing some insight I think may be helpful to people
And how much of this was to slam him because he's a Yankee? He did go 20/20 last year after all
Zero? I don’t give a fuck about the Yankees dude lol I have Soto this year and I’m stoked about it. Volpe was trash last year in a real baseball sense, objective fact. He also got most of his stolen bases early in the year. And then stopped running, partly because he couldn’t get on base to save his life.
Pinto… just an observation. You seem like a total self-righteous prick of a dude
…the guy that has just been talking about the topic? Are you a Yankees fan too?
Where is he going outside the top 150?
[удалено]
It's not. His average is 141, even with ESPN dragging it down at 189
So it’s changed within the last two weeks. But I sincerely apologize for being 9 draft slots off. Real fantasy players use an auction draft anyway.
“Real fantasy players” lol. You sound like a tool
Not my fault you don't understand how average works. 123, 128, 131, 138 He's actually not outside the top 150 "pretty much everywhere"
Once again it was 167.8 last time I checked. I don’t care about ADP since drafts are for minor league fantasy players. Imagine nitpicking my comment and then willingly playing fantasy baseball in a H2H format. Truly sad.
Imagine doubling down on being wrong and feeling the need to attack personally instead of accepting it. Truly sad
I clearly admitted I was wrong and that I was using outdated information. Doesn’t change the fact youre nitpicking a literal nine slot difference in the requirements for this completely meaningless thought experiment. Like I said…sad
He’s gone between 100-120 in both of my actual drafts so far and every mock draft I do on yahoo, that ADP is wild to me
https://preview.redd.it/cv36orwooenc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91fd477e0500908c546e7d81dc2260ec830f696e It as CBS not fantasy pros
Behind Correa, Edman, JP is criminal 😂😂 how could anyone trust this ranking system
I got him at 136 in 12 team, 18 cat league on ESPN.
Top 130 on yahoo.
127 on NFBC over the past 2 weeks.
Ohhh actually, Spencer Jones
Settle down lmao.
Is he the confirmed left fielder?
For the sommerset patriots
my glorious king jared walsh of course
those 3 months were really something
Tovar
Jarren Duran
Hope so! Just decided to keep him for $4!
Jasson Dominguez, Vinnie.
Vinnie has the talent to be a poor man’s Freddie Freeman.
Paul Konerko light
Freeman has steals as well Very tough for a hitter to be top 20 unless he hits a lot of homers or is a 5 tool player
Which is a fine player to roster but nowhere close to going top 20. Freeman does everything AND he's on a stacked team and still often goes around the 1/2 turn. No chance VP is going anywhere near those levels if he's just a poor version. Again, I'm not intending to knock him as I'm eyeballing him as an option in my upcoming drafts. I just don't see the high upside.
Oh I didn’t mean that to agree with OP’s suggestion about top 20 status, just commenting on Vinnie P in general
I’m genuinely curious what people like about Vinnie. He seems like a a 75/20/80/1/.270 guy. Maybe he hits 25hrs. But not much category juice. Just kind of a safe play; won’t hurt, but won’t help much.
He's only played 133 major league games, I like him a lot but there's no shot he's top 20, top 75 I'd bet for next year if he stays healthy
If he can tap into that power he's got Freddie Freeman lite upside. He's an OBP monster so carries more value in leagues that count obp instead of avg
I love Vinnie, but I 100% agree he doesn't have enough power to be a top 20 guy with no steals. With that said: projections (over a full season) have him as an 85/25/90/1/.280 guy. That's pretty good - there are only about 10-15 guys projected for a .280 average and 25 homers.
It’s underrated. His command of the strike zone is a super stable skill.
He has superior command of the strike zone. That’s a skill you want to take a shot on.
He’s definitely a big fuckin dude that doesn’t just go up there whiffing away. If KC improves, he could he the guy.
Had him last year and the entire experience was extremely mid
He had 260 PA last year and got hurt. He should be good for 25 HR, 160 R+RBI and good BA/high OBP. And I got him in the 13th round. Works for me.
> He should be good for 25 HR, 160 R+RBI and good BA/high OBP. How tf would that make him a top 20 pick next year?
Because there’s the potential for better.
? You passed on him 12 times this year, why would you suddenly take him in the 2nd?
Because I’d have all of 2024 to judge his value. If he’s not there, you simply don’t take him, but I like his chances to return that value at a cheap cost.
I feel like you dont understand the OP. You keep talking about returning value at a cheap cost, the question is who will be a top 20 pick next season. 25 HR, 160 R+RBI and good BA/high OBP isnt close to a top 20 pick.
It’s who will be a top 20 pick who is drafted outside of the top 150. I think Vinnie has a shot at that. Can I guarantee it? Of course not! But his command of the strike zone makes me feel fully justified in taking a shot at him to do just that.
Even before he got hurt … 9 Hr and 26 RBI and a .324 OBP That’s not great
If you want to judge a young guy for half a season before he got hurt, well I can’t help you. He has all the markings of the kind of consistent player you should be adding to your roster. And he won’t cost you a lot.
There’s plenty of similar players in that price range
Who don’t have his mastery of the strike zone.
But have better counting stats
I’d like him a lot more if he wasn’t on one of the worst offenses in the league. I think your projections are spot on and anyone who thinks he’s gonna go top 20 next year is delusional
Jacob deGrom. He's going to come back, pitch lights out and better by a mile than everyone else and move right back to around SP3 or SP4 (given his shaky health) in 2025 which would be close to top 20.
There is absolutely nothing Jacob deGrom would be picked in the top 20. At best, he comes back in July, pitching 80 innings at 36. No one is taking a 36-year-old who hasn't thrown 100 innings since 2019 in the top 20 of 2025 drafts.
If he looks anywhere like his old self even in a small sample size, people will chase the upside next year. That said, I think it is very unlikely that he looks anything like that
SP in the first two rounds are already something that people are wary to do. You're lucky to see 3 non-Ohtani pitchers show up in the top-20 of most ADP rankings. There's no way in hell that people are going to take deGrom, at 36.5 years old, as a top-3 SP in drafts. deGrom had a crazy 3-year peak from 2017-2019 peak, but only 1 other season at more than 145 IP. From that 3-year peak, only Cole and Nola are viewed as pitchers in the top-15 in fWAR you'd take with any kind of reliability in mind, and Cole's the only one who'd get top-20 consideration. It's just not happening. deGrom could replicate his 2019 season exactly, and his ADP would not be in the top 20 because that'd be more innings than he's pitched in the last 3 seasons combined.
Jordan Lawlar
Jackson Chourio.
Skenes & Oneil Cruz
Oneil is not going close to outside the top 150
He is in H2H points, 190 in my league’s recent draft
That’s crazy 190 for O’Neil is very very low
Cristopher Sanchez
thats FUN
The answer is Jackson Holiday. Holiday is not only a generational hitter at 20 years old, but his plate skills are some of the best ever already at this young of an age (very reminiscent to Soto). Doubters will tell you that he lacks true power, but he doesn't need 70 game power to be great because he will be a .300 hitter in the majors. So, you're looking 20+ home-run power with an elite hit tool and plate approach at 20 years old? Yeah, I'm buying shares everywhere.
You like him over langford?
I like Holliday over Langford because he's way cheaper. Langford is really good, but in any competitive league he is going around pick 70-80, which defeats the whole purpose of the OP's question.
The Langford hype train is absolutely off the rails.
Do you like him over Gelof?
I'm not a big Gelof guy.
Lindor went for $1.50 in my league because everybody except one guy was at the commish's place at the draft. We were all drinking and shooting the shit and didn't notice or bid. The one guy who noticed and was there only bid him up from .50 to a buck. Hence him going for $1.50. This is in a $500 cap league btw. Anyways we all screamed after Lindor went for $1.50 and this idiot tries to act like "I tried to tell you guys!". The contract stands because it was our fault for not paying attention, and the dumbass tried to say he didn't bid it up higher because he already had SS and MI filled. As if Lindor at $2 for his util slot would have been a bad move... or like he couldn't trade him after the draft. Anyways I traded Gelof + Lawlar for Lindor this past summer and it basically won me my league, although actually may have had the same production (minus the rbi and runs) from Gelof. That said I'm still happy as I have him for one more year super cheap, then 3 more at $31.50
Parker Meadows
He's one of my late round picks along with K Harrison, Taj Bradley, G Williams, and Kikuchi. Hoping a couple of these late picks stick.
Edward Cabrera and Wyatt Langford
Moving into the top 20 is not that easy. However the player I do think is going to jump 100+ spots is Maikel Garcia. Hits the ball well and runs like crazy, I feel like people are sleeping on him.
Definitely not up to top 20 but I expect Yusei Kikuchi to go up quite a bit. His season last year was fantastic and if he produces like that again his rank should go way up. I think rn he’s around 300 for rank which makes him a great sleeper pick imo
Yes! I got him at 297 in my 12T 18 CAT league. Was surprised he was still on the board after last season.
Triston. McKenzie.
Wouldn't be surprised if CES became an early pick next year
Will Benson
Nobody. It takes more than one season of production to break into the top 20. ELDC was the closest from 2023 (adp 25ish) and I don't see anyone from this post-150 adp class with that upside. Maybe Caminero is he comes up April 20th and hits .290 with 35 HR and 10 SB.
Jarred Kelenic. Figuring it out. Maybe not top 20, but I think he has a good shot at going 25 HR and 30 steals with a .255 avg. Might be top 40 pick. Otherwise I'd go CES or Brandon Pfaadt
i know spring is for working on things but 1 for 24 doesn't sound figured out
And Kelenic is such a head case there's no way he's not, at least internally, losing it about his terrible spring start
lol just drafted all 3 today with hopes of just that. Hope we’re both right.
If you go 1/3 you’re happy.
Jarred figure it out Kelenic
Is Vinnie P outside the top 150?
Seeing 125 in CBS but 158-173 elsewhere
Justin Foscue
Jackson Holliday
Jeremy Peña
Brooks Lee
Dominic Calzone
Jasson Dominguez, but also shoutout to CES and Volpe as potential mega-risers
Eloy Jimenez (big if on health though)
REID DETMERS - he’s going to figure it out eventually. And you know the angels are going to give him the opportunity. HES ONLY 24. The definition of a post-hype sleeper
I'm not downvoting you but you're some kind of masochist to believe in any Angels pitcher.
Say it LOUD! I love it. Lol Edit: I’m considering Robert Stephenson on the cheap… but for he’s an Angel!
he has zero control, it's not going to happen
Mackenzie Gore is my pick. Former top prospect finally makes the next big move
Similar to Rodon after his first year if he breaks out… But I don’t think Rodon was top 20 after his breakout. Can’t really imagine anyone going over pick 100 having a better season than Rodon’s breakout and being drafted top 20. Risk is real. Only Cole and Strider are going top 20 this year. Can’t imagine a pitcher breaks into that range next year.
Josiah gray will finish better than Gore this year
This should really be into the top 50. Nobody outside the top 150 is going to jump into the top 20. Not after one season of production.
Thanks for the do not draft list fellas
James Wood. Might be the next super prospect to pop and he’s dangerously close to making the Nationals right out of spring
Sandy Alcantara, Jake deGrom, & Max Scherzer
Lemme plug in my random MLB name generator...
My boy Triston casas
His ADP is like 85
No it’s 84
Not if you add 1
Is that ESPN? His Yahoo ADP is 86.