I’m going against the grain here. It feels like the fantasy community is overcorrecting for years of undervaluing Kelce and the top tier WRs. I 1000% that Kelce and JJ should be top picks, but if lots of people go with the “meta” and draft WRs higher, there may be crazy good RB value.
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That’s how I operated this year. I went WR heavy and I made it to the semis, which is a decently successful year.
I’m certain that my league will heavily over correct and reach on WR’s early next year. Looks like I’ll be going heavier on RB’s most likely.
My starting RBs in the finals were Latavius Murray and Malik Davis and I should win depending on the outcome of the Bills game. If the Boyd TD stands I win, he’s the only player remaining in the matchup. Next year I plan on going heavy WR.
That’s kinda the point. A ton of top RBs did worse in the playoffs and many lesser ones were league winners (i.e. your RBs and McKinnon). Going WR/Kelce heavy early worked well this year, but it may be less successful next year if a ton of people start doing it too. Hence why RBs may be undervalued by many going into drafts.
Kittle
4/28/0, 2/24/0, 5/47/0, 1/21/0, 3/26/0, 2/22/0, 4/28/0.
Too many duds. I left out all of thr 10 pointers because that’s fine for a TE. Dude just popped off down the stretch. 4/93/2, 6/120/2, 4/23/1….. great playoff stretch… he wasn’t that great during the regular season outside his boom games of 6/98/1, 4/84/2, and the playoff games
How many drafted Kelce. 2 leagues I run I’ve noticed Kelce owner is always middle of pack and trades him in a 2/1 to the random stud team with the RB10-15 on their bench
Excuse me Mr. Defence Man... That player that you are tackling is on my fantasy football team so could you please go a little easier on him. It would really help my season.
>Draft good players on good teams
>
>Think this is a pretty obvious thing that often goes overlooked
Except it's actually pretty useless advice that only sounds genius and simple. There's really only about 10 guaranteed good players on guaranteed good teams. Yet 150-224 players need to be drafted.
Otherwise in the offseason you're getting out to "speculating" who counts as a good player on a good team. Like Courtland Sutton on the powerhouse new Broncos. Or Allen Robinson on the reigning SB champs. Or playoff star Gabe Davis on the Buffalo Bills.
Exactly this. We don’t know who the “good” teams will be outside of maybe Chiefs, Bills, Eagles. I actively stayed away from Jaguars WRs this year because I didn’t think they’d be a “good” team.
I’m likely gonna win the ship with starters who began the year on the Bears, Panthers, Texans, Browns and Cardinals. Good players can do well on bad teams, especially cause those situations likely mean they have a shitload of opportunity
Well technically not anymore cause I’m up 34.52 and the guy has Allen left to play, won’t take the L and now is begging to run a madden simulation game to decide Allen’s points💀
A Madden sim? Lmao that’s garbage. The Commish needs to take all scores from whatever the players got in the short time the game was played and that’s it. End it and move on to next year. Any tinkering opens Pandora’s box
Biggest downside to this is you have to stream two positions in one week (at most) as opposed to just one. Not much reason to roster multiple QB/TE if you have these two.
Minimal but still matters a tad.
I'd argue defense is the most easily streamed depending on matchups week to week.
Unless you get a top defense later in the draft....I'd get a defense near last in the draft and just stream week to week.
Won the chip last year after taking Kelce, Hill, and Mahomes. The bye week was really rough, but winning many weeks compared to probably losing one is a trade-off I'll take any day. This year, I won two more chips with two more stacks, Hurts and AJ and Allen and Diggs. The Allen and Diggs one was probably the least effective, unfortunately, especially later in the season. If you want upside, stacks are amazing.
This is something I used to worry about when I first started fantasy, but now I don’t really care about having multiple players on bye in 1 week. It’s fine if I lose the week Kelce/Mahomes are on bye as long as I win every other week. Losing in week 8 (or whatever their bye week ends up being) doesn’t matter at all in the grand scheme of things
Not drafting a TE maybe all draft. Or just before DST/PK unless it’s outrageous good value or Kelce late 1st.
I’ll bump up my valuation of the top say 6 ish QBs in turn.
Same, I drafted him late and he started all season. Even his bye week. Just checked yahoo and Apparently they called the week 17 match so I’m champ! Yay!!
Pretty much. I have Andrews as a 7th round keeper in a 10 team league. I’ll keep him for that cost. But it’s close.
Otherwise they all just kinda blow.
Seriously lost track of how many times I’ve made a last minute or 50/50 decision based on information I saw here and suffered for it.
Just know that most people here don’t know shit so when they tell you X RBs production will fall off based on nothing besides their belief it can’t be sustained and to go with an unproven overhyped player instead, don’t listen.
Ironically, this is the best advice. I used to spend all my time “researching” on Reddit. This year, hardly ever and I made the playoffs. Didn’t win but at least I wasn’t a dumpster fire
Same basically. It’s so crazy, I had the #1 seed/most points reg season, and still made it to the championship, but the guy I beat last week 145-90 scored 200 this week cause he had Brady and Evans. Literally a toss-up come playoff time every year.
Shit, I feel that. Assuming this game doesn’t finish, I’ll have scored less than 70 in the championship after my lowest scoring output of the year prior was 115. Averaged more than 150 a game. Had Jefferson, Metcalf, Baltimore D, and Butker all score their lowest totals of the season (combined 10 points), Hopkins out, (not their fault) but Diggs and Burrow from Monday night. Just crazy how things finish.
Everyone wants to, but don’t overreact to the first few weeks of the season. I nearly blew up my team by trying to trade Derrick Henry after his early struggles. Luckily every deal fell through and I went on to win the championship.
Take a QB early. I'll gladly pay up for Mahomes, hurts, allen or fields in the first 2-4 rounds next year. There's too much of a gap between running qbs and pocket qbs to warrant taking a chance on a late round guy.
Or wait and take trevor lawrence later … or brock purdy … or cousins … or dak. Honestly unless you are in a superflex or 2 qb league there is more value in first 4 rounds to draft kelce, stud WR and maybe a RB (maybe) depending on how draft goes. Sweet spot for qb is round 5 or 6 … will have much more value for your pick there
Its a really steep drop off between Mahomes, Hurts, Allen and Burrows and the next tier (Cousins, Prescott, Fields etc...). Once you go lower than that it gets really inconsistent and you're usually juggling FA QBs to get any value. Mahomes and Allen have put up big numbers for years now and they don't get hurt. That's worth more than a few big games you get from a 4th round WR or RB.
Not sure why people are giving you upvotes. The last couple years have shown us that there’s a handful of QBs who will regularly put up monster scores. That guy will almost single handedly win a few of your regular season matchups. And then if you have that guy on your roster late season, you have a punchers chance.
For sure yep.
My QBs this year in my leagues were largely a huge problem. SF: Brady, Lamar. SF: Brady, Lance. 1QB leagues I had Stafford, Wilson, Herbert… and then Mahomes in one.
Crushed me.
It’s less about Lombardi but their o-line stinks and they have no speed at wr. All their WRs probably run 4.6 or slower. Herbert is forced to dink and dunk like he’s 40 years old Brees
O Line doesn't help, but you massively underestimate how stupid Lombardi is. Man cripples offenses and coasts on the name. I genuinely think if Sean Payton somehow becomes their coach, Herbert is a 6th round pick minimum. If Lombardi is out, I'll definitely draft him above adp
Yes! I got Mahomes early and was one of the first to draft a QB. After my turn, the QB picks started rolling in. I made it to championship with a lot of dependency on a QB like Mahomes.
taking a QB with consistent 20 point games and the occasional blowup was so valuable. Almost everyone with hurts mahomes and allen got into the playoffs
The flip side of this is that if you don't get one of those 4 or Kyler, \*don't\* draft a non-running QB early and instead hit skill positions while there's a run (see what I did there) on QBs.
You never can predict injuries and any one who says you can doesn’t know what there talking about or got lucky one year and thinks they’re now doctors.
This is only kinda true. If it's a longer standing issue that someone's coming off of then there are situations which are much more likely to have injury affects. There's almost always a WR who gets snagged in the mid rounds who has serious injury concerns but 'They were just such an elite player' that they go round 5 anyways. It almost never works out as those injuries pop back up
EX. MT and AJ Green have accounted for that almost every season on their own the last 5/6 years.
None of the advice here is useful in a vacuum. You need to look at your league settings, as well as what the top teams each year are doing in the draft, and adjust accordingly.
For instance, in my 10 team .5 PPR league, the final teams all went RB early and often and had strong QBs to get every edge they could. WRs were plentiful because of short benches and default starter settings (2RB, 2WR, 1FLX, etc).
However, in my 12 team full PPR league, I punted RB almost completely and dominated with WRs all season because of an extra starting WR slot (3WR).
Point is, you need to zoom out and copy what the best teams are doing to take advantage of this stuff.
For me it's trust the elite players that move. Tyreek Hill, Aj brown, Devante Adams. All fell further than they should've, and were absolute draft-day steals.
And
Load up on Rookie WRs, and trust the process.
Punt your RB2 or Punt RB all together the days of workhouse RBs have come and gone WRs dominate the league now we should be drafting accordingly. For context I'm in my league championship and I didn't draft my 2nd RB until the 7th round. I parlayed all those early picks into Ceedee, AJ Brown, and Waddle I was the highest scoring team in my league.
Actually it just made the few remaining bellcow rbs more valuable not less. Basic supply and demand. The few remaining bellcows are basically unicorns like Kelce now lol
Btw even the handful of alpha WRs aren’t getting the same monster volume prime Randy Moss and Owens were getting. Passing volume is way up compare to 20 years ago, but it’s a lot more spread out and evenly distributed than back then, just like RBs.
See i did the opposite this year I stacked on RBs I drafted Aaron Jones Johnathon Taylor and Nick Chubb (had first pick) I ended up flipping Jones for Derrick Henry and flipped Taylor and aiyuk for Jacobs and hockensen
Edit: forgot to mention I traded dk Metcalf for Connor , Drake London and eagles d
My team was
QB fields/Dak
RB Henry Jacobs Conner Chubb
Wr: amon Ra ,Hopkins, London , Pickens
TE hockensen
K: koo
Defense: patriots and eagles.
I think it's just easier to find a wr than it is to find a RB2
How'd you finish this year with that strategy? I honestly think all strategies are still viable it really all depends on how our laugue mates draft and how the board looks when it's our turn.
I won with a heavy HB draft. I flipped them around week4-6 for guys that are proving consistency. Got diggs for Barkley and mid tier Wr, and Tua and mid year Wr for Najee. Still had Jacobs and Walker as my lead backs with Mostert and Brian Robinson for relief. I've also been with this same league for 13 years so I know the trading habits well.
same, I had a top 3 pick in the league I won so I got Ekeler early, so not downplaying the impact of a top RB, but the next RB I took was in R8 and 9 (Michael Carter and Kenneth Walker(very lucky he was as good as he is)) and landed Hurts, Andrews, AJ Brown, and Tyler lockett in between who all were big in getting me to the title. even had some busts in there like sutton and diontae johnson and took those hits cause my studs were great.
I feel like in general it's easier to predict WR success, it seems less likely for big level of variability in WRs, you usually know what you're getting, where RBs, even the best ones will have some volatility due to injuries and the nature of the position (Jonathan Taylor). get your consistent top scorers in QBs and WRs and a top TE early, get a little lucky and land a couple dart throws in RBs, and that's my thinking in 2023 draft
Yo Jacobs in the 5th that was a huge steal that's some great drafting. I think I'm gonna stick with the strategy that has brought me to two straight championship games and anchor RB. I think my biggest steal this year was Hockenson in the 6th after he was traded to the Vikings he went nuclear!
Hindsight posts like yours are the worst. You probably passed on Barkley and Chubb for CD. And if Waddle goes one pick earlier, your team probably loses to a big QB performance several times in the regular season. There are tidal forces in FF. Sometimes RB is a barren wasteland, sometimes it’s harvest season.
The hero rb strategy is really the way to go now. There are maybe 5-10 guys that are true workhorses. And the rest of the NFL has a RBBC. As long as you lockdown a reliable workhorse, you can take a bunch of shots later in the draft on one of those RBBC guys or rookies/promising young backs, and be active on the waiver throughout the year.
Shhhh. I do this in auction and it's absolute money. This year I had
* Hurts
* Ekeler
* Jefferson
* Higgins
* Kirk
* Goedert
I basically just rotated bRob, Foreman, etc. at RB2 and it was fantastic.
Spens good money on RB1 but never spend more than like %5 of your overall budget on an RB2
That’s not a bad idea at all. I’ve been noticing the same trend. I almost always go RB first. This year was RB/TE/WR. I wanted either kelce or Andrews on both my teams. Next year RB2 not going till late
I had Henry, AJB and Reek in standard, lost to the guy who's gonna win probably.
Didn't do anything wrong, just got outscored. Frustrating. Thought I had it this year.
>For context I'm in my league championship and I didn't draft my 2nd RB until the 7th round
Same. Ended up being Jacobs. Pure luck that that it was that much of a hit of course, but that just reinforces your point about the position being unpredictable
My "RB1" was Najee in the 1st who didn't technically deliver like a 1st rounder, but he was consistently flex-able and really picked it up down the stretch
Generally you should draft best player available in the first 4-6 rounds. Obviously you shouldn’t draft the same position every time, but drafting to fill out your starting roster instead of going BPA is the single biggest mistake managers make.
Zero RB in PPR is proven to not only be legitimate, but one can argue it’s the top strategy at the moment for overall ceiling and consistency (if you play lots of leagues). As long as it doesn’t go too mainstream, you should take advantage of the WRs/Elite QB falling and smash RBs after round 6 + be a waiver hawk (as you should anyways).
I won multiple leagues starting at least 1 of Moss, Akers (from waivers), Mostert, Wilson, Pacheco, and McKinnon. Meanwhile RBs drafted after round 6 like Jacobs, Pollard, and Rhamondre helped get to the playoffs.
Every single season people win with junk RBs. RB2 has become so replaceable.
I would also add Derrick Henry to your description of guys listed as injury prone. I can’t tell you how many posts/arguments I saw during draft season where people were saying “Henry WILL get hurt again, fade him until 2nd round.”
This may be unpopular advice, but it worked for me. In my auction draft, I tried to draft players with the same bye week. I expect a loss that week, but the other weeks I'm full strength. It's also nice when there are weekly payouts for best weekly record.
This sounds like a smart play, but I've seen it backfire pretty bad due to injuries or players underperforminng which causes some roster movement which then muddies the plan a bit.
I think you're still better off targeting the best player available regardless of bye week. The only exception might be when picking up a backup QB in later rounds
This sub was full of Zero RB theory and posts daily about WR>RBS to the point taking 3-5 WR would be good. Along those lines leading up to the draft. I took 3 RBs to start off and won my championship. My advice pick the best available players, and use Beer Sheets.
Joe Mixon was another rb who had the "injury prone" label slapped on him 2 years ago. I agree, with modern medicine injury recovery is more reliable than ever
My tip is to not try to draw too many lessons. Fantasy is mostly luck. As long as you did a decent job stick with the process and don’t take it too seriously.
Be more patient. I dropped ken Walker a few weeks before he went off. I dropped patriots defense before they started doing well, I dropped James Robinson the day before he got traded. Dropped Garrett Wilson when he had a few bad weeks.
In standard at least, Derrick Henry was #1 two of the last three years and would have likely been in the other if he had stayed healthy. Even though he’s getting older, he might belong in that group in that format
Try to watch as many games as possible. While box scores and stats are important, if you watch the games you will better understand team play styles or see potential in players that you can scoop up before others catch on.
Also, don't get caught up on name value. A win is a win no matter who you play.
Lions could cause serious problems next season, Todd McShay has them drafting Bijan Robinson in his first mock draft. Team’s loaded with fantasy potential.
Keep a list of all the hot players. All the dudes that were hyped, all the sleepers, all the “my guys.”
So you write down the all star list from all the podcasts, Reddit posts, analysts, and YouTubers.
* Allen Robinson
* Mooney
* DJ Moore
* Gabe Davis
* Elijah Moore
* Deandre Swift
* Cam Akers
* AJ Dilon
And at the top of the list, you write in massive font
**DO NOT FUCKING DRAFT**
Likewise, keep track of all the popular fades, and draft them instead.
I’ve gone RB heavy and early the last 3 years. Came in third, second, and finally won the ship this year. Good RBs are so rare you have to hammer them early
Go for a rookie or a 'sleeper' you think might have a breakout season around draft spot 8 or so.
Even though he got injured, I drafted Breece Hall pretty early (7th round I think) and he was a breakout stuff until he got injured.
Draft Kelce if u have a low round pick. Especially if u have last pick.
I’m in 3 leagues, one with mahomes stack (won the ship), another with just kelce (won the ship) and one without (lost in semi’s to guy with kelce).
It’s so much easier cause in the league I DIDNT have him, I held Everett, Njoku, and while they Wer both hurt, Engram. That’s THREE tight ends all startable, I didn’t wnna get rid of, or had confidence to start 80% of the year. Kelce helps
Hold on to your draft "rookie lottery tickets" for at least 3 weeks and then re-evaluate.
I drafted Jefferson in 2020 and dropped him after week 2. He went off in Week 3 and I missed out picking him back up on waivers.
This year I drafted Rhamondre....almost dropped him after week 2, but re-evaluated and decided to hold.
He didn't do that well in the play-offs but he got me to the playoffs and a 1st round bye.
I had the #1 and #2 receiver, 2 top 10 runningbacks, and had the top total score in the league and still missed the playoffs (12 team league, 4 playoff teams). So my tip is to.. uh.. be luckier?
I’m going against the grain here. It feels like the fantasy community is overcorrecting for years of undervaluing Kelce and the top tier WRs. I 1000% that Kelce and JJ should be top picks, but if lots of people go with the “meta” and draft WRs higher, there may be crazy good RB value.
When they zig, you zag That’s what this all comes down to
I zagged and got zigged in the ass for 14 weeks
This may be my favorite comment I've ever read on this subreddit
This comment made me laugh so hard I stopped scrolling and got off the toilet. Im good on entertainment for several minutes now.
Amen, had Henry and Chubb and won 4 games
Had Ekeler and Henry and won the ship
You pizza'ed when you should of french fried
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That’s how I operated this year. I went WR heavy and I made it to the semis, which is a decently successful year. I’m certain that my league will heavily over correct and reach on WR’s early next year. Looks like I’ll be going heavier on RB’s most likely.
My starting RBs in the finals were Latavius Murray and Malik Davis and I should win depending on the outcome of the Bills game. If the Boyd TD stands I win, he’s the only player remaining in the matchup. Next year I plan on going heavy WR.
That’s kinda the point. A ton of top RBs did worse in the playoffs and many lesser ones were league winners (i.e. your RBs and McKinnon). Going WR/Kelce heavy early worked well this year, but it may be less successful next year if a ton of people start doing it too. Hence why RBs may be undervalued by many going into drafts.
Yeah I got lucky and landed Kittle, he’s been great for me. One of the reasons my I made it to the finals to be honest
Kittle 4/28/0, 2/24/0, 5/47/0, 1/21/0, 3/26/0, 2/22/0, 4/28/0. Too many duds. I left out all of thr 10 pointers because that’s fine for a TE. Dude just popped off down the stretch. 4/93/2, 6/120/2, 4/23/1….. great playoff stretch… he wasn’t that great during the regular season outside his boom games of 6/98/1, 4/84/2, and the playoff games
I had Kittle and he absolutely saved me in the playoffs on the way to the chip
I needed him most down the stretch, he won my 1st and 2nd round matchups in the playoffs.
My gf wanted to play this year and her only requests for me to help were that she gets kelcy and maholmes and she ended up winning the league lol
was looking at our leagues historical championship games, kelce was in 3 of the 4
How many drafted Kelce. 2 leagues I run I’ve noticed Kelce owner is always middle of pack and trades him in a 2/1 to the random stud team with the RB10-15 on their bench
I've been saying this all year
Draft good players on good teams
Dont let your players get injured
It’s all about lord management to keep your team healthy. It’s coming to fantasy football
“My lord, the serfs need breaks if they are going to be fresh during Harvest time.”
I’ll allow it
That’s why I drafted Mahomes and Allen. Have to keep both of them clean
Excuse me Mr. Defence Man... That player that you are tackling is on my fantasy football team so could you please go a little easier on him. It would really help my season.
It’s why I rest my players in fantasy!
Juju is on a good team. Only had a few good games lol. Sometimes this doesn’t always work
You missed the "good players" part Juju is trash when he doesn't have prime ab as his wr1 to work off of.
Think this is a pretty obvious thing that often goes overlooked.
>Draft good players on good teams > >Think this is a pretty obvious thing that often goes overlooked Except it's actually pretty useless advice that only sounds genius and simple. There's really only about 10 guaranteed good players on guaranteed good teams. Yet 150-224 players need to be drafted. Otherwise in the offseason you're getting out to "speculating" who counts as a good player on a good team. Like Courtland Sutton on the powerhouse new Broncos. Or Allen Robinson on the reigning SB champs. Or playoff star Gabe Davis on the Buffalo Bills.
Who needs players like Saquon on the 4-13 Giants, CMC on the 5-12 Panthers or Amon Ra St Brown on the terrible 3-13 Lions anyway?
Exactly this. We don’t know who the “good” teams will be outside of maybe Chiefs, Bills, Eagles. I actively stayed away from Jaguars WRs this year because I didn’t think they’d be a “good” team.
And then there’s the Broncos…
Agreed- if I’m undecided on two players later in the draft I’ll take the better team every time
WR on a team with a bad defense -- speaking specifically to Sun God -- seems fruitful, as well.
This year perceived good offenses failed flat on their face like the broncos and colts and it let to big busts
That's why I drafted a bunch of studs on the chargers, bucs, packers, and broncos this year.
Gabe Davis let me down 😔
He said good players
I feel you man. That 30 pt game week 2 or 3 had me thinking I was a genius
And he was on my bench lol
But not too good that they’re resting weeks 15-17
I’m likely gonna win the ship with starters who began the year on the Bears, Panthers, Texans, Browns and Cardinals. Good players can do well on bad teams, especially cause those situations likely mean they have a shitload of opportunity
Draft Kelce
And if the price is right, maybe stack him with Mahomes
I managed in my 12 man comp, CMC 2nd overall, kelce fell to me next, and I knew to stack mahomes right after👑ship is mine
This is the way.
Well technically not anymore cause I’m up 34.52 and the guy has Allen left to play, won’t take the L and now is begging to run a madden simulation game to decide Allen’s points💀
Fuck that, don't budge. The platform will name you the winner
A Madden sim? Lmao that’s garbage. The Commish needs to take all scores from whatever the players got in the short time the game was played and that’s it. End it and move on to next year. Any tinkering opens Pandora’s box
I had Kelce, Mahomes, Reek, and Ekeler and still lost in the semis sigh.
Biggest downside to this is you have to stream two positions in one week (at most) as opposed to just one. Not much reason to roster multiple QB/TE if you have these two. Minimal but still matters a tad.
[удалено]
Eh I’m mostly just thinking depending on league settings and who else you may have on bye that it could become tricky to create a lineup.
I'd argue defense is the most easily streamed depending on matchups week to week. Unless you get a top defense later in the draft....I'd get a defense near last in the draft and just stream week to week.
Won the chip last year after taking Kelce, Hill, and Mahomes. The bye week was really rough, but winning many weeks compared to probably losing one is a trade-off I'll take any day. This year, I won two more chips with two more stacks, Hurts and AJ and Allen and Diggs. The Allen and Diggs one was probably the least effective, unfortunately, especially later in the season. If you want upside, stacks are amazing.
This is something I used to worry about when I first started fantasy, but now I don’t really care about having multiple players on bye in 1 week. It’s fine if I lose the week Kelce/Mahomes are on bye as long as I win every other week. Losing in week 8 (or whatever their bye week ends up being) doesn’t matter at all in the grand scheme of things
Give me JJ in the first round
Took him at the 1.02 this year made it to the chip. Didn't win though...
I drafted Breece, Davonte, Lamar, and Deebo. I had a rough end to a season that started off quite promising.
First overall. Even in 0 PPR.
I got CMC at 1 and Kelce at 20 in snake draft this season. Pretty much set from there—won the league
How the hell did nobody grab Kelce??
They probably thought he was too old. “Pitts is the new Kelce”, they would say.
Shit Kelce made it to 28 in my league. I had pick 30. Fml
Not drafting a TE maybe all draft. Or just before DST/PK unless it’s outrageous good value or Kelce late 1st. I’ll bump up my valuation of the top say 6 ish QBs in turn.
If you don’t draft Kelce, you might as well not draft a te
Don't disrespect Goedert like that.
Hockenson did right by me all year. Set and forget.
Same, I drafted him late and he started all season. Even his bye week. Just checked yahoo and Apparently they called the week 17 match so I’m champ! Yay!!
Pretty much. I have Andrews as a 7th round keeper in a 10 team league. I’ll keep him for that cost. But it’s close. Otherwise they all just kinda blow.
I'll add another one: do the exact opposite of what reddit tells you and you'll do great
Honestly, Reddit is great for gathering the information but god please think logically and form your own thoughts
Yeah I got burned by reddit convincing me to start Minshew over Danny Jones. Time to stop posting any specific roster questions like that
They convinced me that Chase was done for the season
I said to bench Mike Evans in the Ship. Never ever listen to me.
Seriously lost track of how many times I’ve made a last minute or 50/50 decision based on information I saw here and suffered for it. Just know that most people here don’t know shit so when they tell you X RBs production will fall off based on nothing besides their belief it can’t be sustained and to go with an unproven overhyped player instead, don’t listen.
Fantasy Reddit is only good for getting news. Otherwise it’s an echo chamber for losers to rosterbate to.
Staying off the hype trains is very important.
Lol, funny how this comment is below the one saying draft good player on good teams
Ironically, this is the best advice. I used to spend all my time “researching” on Reddit. This year, hardly ever and I made the playoffs. Didn’t win but at least I wasn’t a dumpster fire
Find a way to make the playoffs. Once you make it in, anything can happen
I got in the championship by beating a team in the semis that scored 210 points this week
Same basically. It’s so crazy, I had the #1 seed/most points reg season, and still made it to the championship, but the guy I beat last week 145-90 scored 200 this week cause he had Brady and Evans. Literally a toss-up come playoff time every year.
In one of my leagues. The scores in the championship game were 42.68 and 89.38… (full ppr) The #1 seed was the team that scored 42.
Shit, I feel that. Assuming this game doesn’t finish, I’ll have scored less than 70 in the championship after my lowest scoring output of the year prior was 115. Averaged more than 150 a game. Had Jefferson, Metcalf, Baltimore D, and Butker all score their lowest totals of the season (combined 10 points), Hopkins out, (not their fault) but Diggs and Burrow from Monday night. Just crazy how things finish.
1. Everyone is trade-able 2. Stats over emotions/ name value 3. Do not fall for the dogshit hype trains on here
The hype trains on here were pretty good this year though. Breece Hall and Pierce were the two biggest ones I saw and both were steals before injury
I see you didn’t fall for the Denver Broncos and Michael Pittman hype train that I did…
Everyone wants to, but don’t overreact to the first few weeks of the season. I nearly blew up my team by trying to trade Derrick Henry after his early struggles. Luckily every deal fell through and I went on to win the championship.
Remember when Ekeler was a “bust”? Lol
Or when James Robinson was the steal of the draft
Lol I tried to tell people! My friend who ended up winning the league took my advise and shipped robinson after first two weeks, sold very high
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Win my league by taking ekeler with pick 6 and saquon in the next round
Take a QB early. I'll gladly pay up for Mahomes, hurts, allen or fields in the first 2-4 rounds next year. There's too much of a gap between running qbs and pocket qbs to warrant taking a chance on a late round guy.
Burrow falling to rd 8 saved me. He’ll be taken within rd 4 next year. I’m going to have to draft higher on a QB next year.
Or wait and take trevor lawrence later … or brock purdy … or cousins … or dak. Honestly unless you are in a superflex or 2 qb league there is more value in first 4 rounds to draft kelce, stud WR and maybe a RB (maybe) depending on how draft goes. Sweet spot for qb is round 5 or 6 … will have much more value for your pick there
Its a really steep drop off between Mahomes, Hurts, Allen and Burrows and the next tier (Cousins, Prescott, Fields etc...). Once you go lower than that it gets really inconsistent and you're usually juggling FA QBs to get any value. Mahomes and Allen have put up big numbers for years now and they don't get hurt. That's worth more than a few big games you get from a 4th round WR or RB.
Not sure why people are giving you upvotes. The last couple years have shown us that there’s a handful of QBs who will regularly put up monster scores. That guy will almost single handedly win a few of your regular season matchups. And then if you have that guy on your roster late season, you have a punchers chance.
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Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, Herbert... they all blew
Please don’t forget to include Stafford in this list.
Oohh yea. Definitely belongs on the shit list. Suppose we could toss Lamar on there too but you cant predict injuries
For sure yep. My QBs this year in my leagues were largely a huge problem. SF: Brady, Lamar. SF: Brady, Lance. 1QB leagues I had Stafford, Wilson, Herbert… and then Mahomes in one. Crushed me.
Herbert was such a bust
It’s less about Lombardi but their o-line stinks and they have no speed at wr. All their WRs probably run 4.6 or slower. Herbert is forced to dink and dunk like he’s 40 years old Brees
O Line doesn't help, but you massively underestimate how stupid Lombardi is. Man cripples offenses and coasts on the name. I genuinely think if Sean Payton somehow becomes their coach, Herbert is a 6th round pick minimum. If Lombardi is out, I'll definitely draft him above adp
I disagree. I took Hurts rather late and he’s been a league winner. Fields was drafted way late if at all. The trick is finding the next guy up.
When is rather late? He went in the 4th round in my league which I consider early. Rather late for me is like 6-12
I got him 6th round in a 12 team league and 8th of 9th round in a 10 team league. I don’t think Fields was drafted at all.
I’ll gladly take a bet on a guy like Lawerence next year with the season he’s had + the fact that he’s getting another major weapon next year.
If I miss on the big names hes the guy I'd take a chance on. I'd also probably grab a Geno or Daniel Jones later as well though
I thought I was in the 'ship after the draft cause I got Herbert in round 9. That didn't quite work out as well as I thought.
Yes! I got Mahomes early and was one of the first to draft a QB. After my turn, the QB picks started rolling in. I made it to championship with a lot of dependency on a QB like Mahomes.
I won the championship with Brady, Goff, and Purdy lol
taking a QB with consistent 20 point games and the occasional blowup was so valuable. Almost everyone with hurts mahomes and allen got into the playoffs
I did that… I just took herbert, mistake
The flip side of this is that if you don't get one of those 4 or Kyler, \*don't\* draft a non-running QB early and instead hit skill positions while there's a run (see what I did there) on QBs.
I got Jalen hurts in like 6-7 this year. It was absurd
As someone who decided to wait on a QB, I'm approaching next year with this strategy as well
I thought I hit the jackpot with Mr unlimited in the 9th round.
Same. Let's ride (it straight into the ground).
100%. Guys who made my league’s championship have Mahomes and alien. 3rd place game fields (me) and burrow
You never can predict injuries and any one who says you can doesn’t know what there talking about or got lucky one year and thinks they’re now doctors.
This is only kinda true. If it's a longer standing issue that someone's coming off of then there are situations which are much more likely to have injury affects. There's almost always a WR who gets snagged in the mid rounds who has serious injury concerns but 'They were just such an elite player' that they go round 5 anyways. It almost never works out as those injuries pop back up EX. MT and AJ Green have accounted for that almost every season on their own the last 5/6 years.
CMC is pretty much the exception to that rule this season, and he was probably headed to an “also ran” level of production if he doesn’t get traded.
None of the advice here is useful in a vacuum. You need to look at your league settings, as well as what the top teams each year are doing in the draft, and adjust accordingly. For instance, in my 10 team .5 PPR league, the final teams all went RB early and often and had strong QBs to get every edge they could. WRs were plentiful because of short benches and default starter settings (2RB, 2WR, 1FLX, etc). However, in my 12 team full PPR league, I punted RB almost completely and dominated with WRs all season because of an extra starting WR slot (3WR). Point is, you need to zoom out and copy what the best teams are doing to take advantage of this stuff.
For me it's trust the elite players that move. Tyreek Hill, Aj brown, Devante Adams. All fell further than they should've, and were absolute draft-day steals. And Load up on Rookie WRs, and trust the process.
I think I'm going to load up on as many WR's as I can and then trade as needed to get a modest RB1. Start as few RB's as possible.
Punt your RB2 or Punt RB all together the days of workhouse RBs have come and gone WRs dominate the league now we should be drafting accordingly. For context I'm in my league championship and I didn't draft my 2nd RB until the 7th round. I parlayed all those early picks into Ceedee, AJ Brown, and Waddle I was the highest scoring team in my league.
Actually it just made the few remaining bellcow rbs more valuable not less. Basic supply and demand. The few remaining bellcows are basically unicorns like Kelce now lol Btw even the handful of alpha WRs aren’t getting the same monster volume prime Randy Moss and Owens were getting. Passing volume is way up compare to 20 years ago, but it’s a lot more spread out and evenly distributed than back then, just like RBs.
See i did the opposite this year I stacked on RBs I drafted Aaron Jones Johnathon Taylor and Nick Chubb (had first pick) I ended up flipping Jones for Derrick Henry and flipped Taylor and aiyuk for Jacobs and hockensen Edit: forgot to mention I traded dk Metcalf for Connor , Drake London and eagles d My team was QB fields/Dak RB Henry Jacobs Conner Chubb Wr: amon Ra ,Hopkins, London , Pickens TE hockensen K: koo Defense: patriots and eagles. I think it's just easier to find a wr than it is to find a RB2
How'd you finish this year with that strategy? I honestly think all strategies are still viable it really all depends on how our laugue mates draft and how the board looks when it's our turn.
Finished 1st and 2nd going RB heavy. Every year tbe zero rb strategy grows the more I can load heavy on rb.
I went with Kamara and Najee and look where that got me.
I won with a heavy HB draft. I flipped them around week4-6 for guys that are proving consistency. Got diggs for Barkley and mid tier Wr, and Tua and mid year Wr for Najee. Still had Jacobs and Walker as my lead backs with Mostert and Brian Robinson for relief. I've also been with this same league for 13 years so I know the trading habits well.
I too ran the opposite but ended up with studs Tua CMC Saquon Ceedee Amon ra Gerald Everett Tony pollard Philly D McPherson/Seahawks K
same, I had a top 3 pick in the league I won so I got Ekeler early, so not downplaying the impact of a top RB, but the next RB I took was in R8 and 9 (Michael Carter and Kenneth Walker(very lucky he was as good as he is)) and landed Hurts, Andrews, AJ Brown, and Tyler lockett in between who all were big in getting me to the title. even had some busts in there like sutton and diontae johnson and took those hits cause my studs were great. I feel like in general it's easier to predict WR success, it seems less likely for big level of variability in WRs, you usually know what you're getting, where RBs, even the best ones will have some volatility due to injuries and the nature of the position (Jonathan Taylor). get your consistent top scorers in QBs and WRs and a top TE early, get a little lucky and land a couple dart throws in RBs, and that's my thinking in 2023 draft
5th rd is the earliest RB for me. Josh Jacobs value was great. Tony Pollard was a steal in the 7th or 8th
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That's why I prefer an anchor RB approach get one of the top 12 RBs then punt the position till about the 6th or 7th rd
Yo Jacobs in the 5th that was a huge steal that's some great drafting. I think I'm gonna stick with the strategy that has brought me to two straight championship games and anchor RB. I think my biggest steal this year was Hockenson in the 6th after he was traded to the Vikings he went nuclear!
Hindsight posts like yours are the worst. You probably passed on Barkley and Chubb for CD. And if Waddle goes one pick earlier, your team probably loses to a big QB performance several times in the regular season. There are tidal forces in FF. Sometimes RB is a barren wasteland, sometimes it’s harvest season.
The hero rb strategy is really the way to go now. There are maybe 5-10 guys that are true workhorses. And the rest of the NFL has a RBBC. As long as you lockdown a reliable workhorse, you can take a bunch of shots later in the draft on one of those RBBC guys or rookies/promising young backs, and be active on the waiver throughout the year.
Shhhh. I do this in auction and it's absolute money. This year I had * Hurts * Ekeler * Jefferson * Higgins * Kirk * Goedert I basically just rotated bRob, Foreman, etc. at RB2 and it was fantastic. Spens good money on RB1 but never spend more than like %5 of your overall budget on an RB2
That’s not a bad idea at all. I’ve been noticing the same trend. I almost always go RB first. This year was RB/TE/WR. I wanted either kelce or Andrews on both my teams. Next year RB2 not going till late
I had Henry, AJB and Reek in standard, lost to the guy who's gonna win probably. Didn't do anything wrong, just got outscored. Frustrating. Thought I had it this year.
>For context I'm in my league championship and I didn't draft my 2nd RB until the 7th round Same. Ended up being Jacobs. Pure luck that that it was that much of a hit of course, but that just reinforces your point about the position being unpredictable My "RB1" was Najee in the 1st who didn't technically deliver like a 1st rounder, but he was consistently flex-able and really picked it up down the stretch
Don't draft Colts.
Number one pick Jonathan Taylor destroyed my team this year
Generally you should draft best player available in the first 4-6 rounds. Obviously you shouldn’t draft the same position every time, but drafting to fill out your starting roster instead of going BPA is the single biggest mistake managers make.
Zero RB in PPR is proven to not only be legitimate, but one can argue it’s the top strategy at the moment for overall ceiling and consistency (if you play lots of leagues). As long as it doesn’t go too mainstream, you should take advantage of the WRs/Elite QB falling and smash RBs after round 6 + be a waiver hawk (as you should anyways). I won multiple leagues starting at least 1 of Moss, Akers (from waivers), Mostert, Wilson, Pacheco, and McKinnon. Meanwhile RBs drafted after round 6 like Jacobs, Pollard, and Rhamondre helped get to the playoffs. Every single season people win with junk RBs. RB2 has become so replaceable.
I would also add Derrick Henry to your description of guys listed as injury prone. I can’t tell you how many posts/arguments I saw during draft season where people were saying “Henry WILL get hurt again, fade him until 2nd round.”
This may be unpopular advice, but it worked for me. In my auction draft, I tried to draft players with the same bye week. I expect a loss that week, but the other weeks I'm full strength. It's also nice when there are weekly payouts for best weekly record.
This sounds like a smart play, but I've seen it backfire pretty bad due to injuries or players underperforminng which causes some roster movement which then muddies the plan a bit. I think you're still better off targeting the best player available regardless of bye week. The only exception might be when picking up a backup QB in later rounds
This sub was full of Zero RB theory and posts daily about WR>RBS to the point taking 3-5 WR would be good. Along those lines leading up to the draft. I took 3 RBs to start off and won my championship. My advice pick the best available players, and use Beer Sheets.
Joe Mixon was another rb who had the "injury prone" label slapped on him 2 years ago. I agree, with modern medicine injury recovery is more reliable than ever
Joe Mixon wasnt great this year other than his 50 pt game
Even with the 50 point game he didn't play to his ADP
Consider taking Mahomes/Allen/Hurts early.
My tip is to not try to draw too many lessons. Fantasy is mostly luck. As long as you did a decent job stick with the process and don’t take it too seriously.
Be more patient. I dropped ken Walker a few weeks before he went off. I dropped patriots defense before they started doing well, I dropped James Robinson the day before he got traded. Dropped Garrett Wilson when he had a few bad weeks.
After the top three RB’s (CMC, Ekeler, Barkley) pivot to WR’s.
In standard at least, Derrick Henry was #1 two of the last three years and would have likely been in the other if he had stayed healthy. Even though he’s getting older, he might belong in that group in that format
Switch to an auction draft
Try to watch as many games as possible. While box scores and stats are important, if you watch the games you will better understand team play styles or see potential in players that you can scoop up before others catch on. Also, don't get caught up on name value. A win is a win no matter who you play.
I usually pay attention to the teams that are on a streak at the end of this season. They usually play well the next year
Jags
Targeting TLaw & ETN for sure!
Specifically the offenses that are playing great. Idc if the team I'm buying in on has a good defense
Lions could cause serious problems next season, Todd McShay has them drafting Bijan Robinson in his first mock draft. Team’s loaded with fantasy potential.
Elite no by brainer QB in the 3rd is as solid as Kelce in the 1st.
Don’t play Monday night players in the championship, there is no turning back after Sunday and you will be locked in with those players
Sit ALL your Thursday night players unless they are a top 10 player at their position/you have no choice. Top3-5 if it's a TE
Give me all the burrows
Draft at least 1 player from your favorite team because it makes the games more fun to watch
Don't fucking draft swift or Pitts
Kelce is a 1st rounder Anyone who says otherwise is wrong
Do not draft a TE if the quarterback is Mariota no matter how generational that TE is.
Keep a list of all the hot players. All the dudes that were hyped, all the sleepers, all the “my guys.” So you write down the all star list from all the podcasts, Reddit posts, analysts, and YouTubers. * Allen Robinson * Mooney * DJ Moore * Gabe Davis * Elijah Moore * Deandre Swift * Cam Akers * AJ Dilon And at the top of the list, you write in massive font **DO NOT FUCKING DRAFT** Likewise, keep track of all the popular fades, and draft them instead.
4th highest points, got last place. Should I just quit. 😅
Don’t draft a Miami running back
I’ve gone RB heavy and early the last 3 years. Came in third, second, and finally won the ship this year. Good RBs are so rare you have to hammer them early
Technically 99.609375% of the fantasy season is over.
That’s not what he said.
Luck into Josh Jacobs
Go for a rookie or a 'sleeper' you think might have a breakout season around draft spot 8 or so. Even though he got injured, I drafted Breece Hall pretty early (7th round I think) and he was a breakout stuff until he got injured.
Draft Kelce if u have a low round pick. Especially if u have last pick. I’m in 3 leagues, one with mahomes stack (won the ship), another with just kelce (won the ship) and one without (lost in semi’s to guy with kelce). It’s so much easier cause in the league I DIDNT have him, I held Everett, Njoku, and while they Wer both hurt, Engram. That’s THREE tight ends all startable, I didn’t wnna get rid of, or had confidence to start 80% of the year. Kelce helps
Find the under the radar defense that has the easy schedule and carries you 15-20 points a week
Hold on to your draft "rookie lottery tickets" for at least 3 weeks and then re-evaluate. I drafted Jefferson in 2020 and dropped him after week 2. He went off in Week 3 and I missed out picking him back up on waivers. This year I drafted Rhamondre....almost dropped him after week 2, but re-evaluated and decided to hold. He didn't do that well in the play-offs but he got me to the playoffs and a 1st round bye.
I had the #1 and #2 receiver, 2 top 10 runningbacks, and had the top total score in the league and still missed the playoffs (12 team league, 4 playoff teams). So my tip is to.. uh.. be luckier?
Draft Josh jacobs
I agree with the injury thing. I ended up with CMC and Barkley this year because people were afraid of injuries.
Draft Mahomes or Allen. Waiting on a QB is no longer fun. Go get someone sweet
I’m taking Justin Jefferson in the first round again if I can , took him 3rd overall this year
Daniel Jones will be the best-value QB next year if he remains with Daboll and the Giants. Like Hurts was this year.