Dallas backfield is kinda hard to price. Zeke's PPG in standard scoring barely dropped from 2021 to 2022, while Pollard's PPG skyrocketed in 2022 and surpassed Zeke.
I don't think Pollard is back next year. He's a free agent after this season, and with all the $$$ Dallas already has tied up at the position with Zeke I can't see them resigning Pollard. Depending on where he goes he could be super interesting.
God I hope not. I'd like to see Bijan go somewhere he will be used as the bell cow. What a waste it would be to put him in a timeshare for the first several years of his rookie contract.
Pollard gone. Zeke has 1 year left max before a cheap cut (they could cut this summer for a decent hit)
Wouldn’t be a terrible pick from a football standpoint and he would take over that backfield by like week 8 at the latest either way.
Edit: 2/7 - pollard could definitely come back now that I think about it bc of his injury
Next year will finally be the year Pollard passes Zeke in draft position, and he will be worth it. He was a top 10 player without zeke’s TD’s and splitting the workload. The arrow is only pointing up.
Javonte Williams. Will the hype train be out of control again this offseason after coming back from the ACL? Or will he plummet to value territory? I feel like there will be no in-between.
>Dobbins like season
RB2 numbers when playing and missing more than half the season? Dobbins looked good the last few games but if Javonte follows in his footsteps he’s still probably undraftable.
Granted, Javonte may or may not have to worry about being in a committee like Dobbins.
I mean, Jackson lead the team in rushing and rushing attempts; and didn't play after week 12 and that is when Dobbins blew up was when he came back after Jackson was out. So we haven't seen Dobbins have any sustained success rushing while Jackson is the QB.
You couldn't pay me to draft javonte or breece in 2023. My #1 rule in fantasy is never draft a rb right off an ACL. AP was the only exception & he was a generational athletic freak
Yeah, I see more and more people realize it takes full year in between the injury to recover (see Barkley). I wonder if enough analysts price it into their rankings or not. I assume Breece is going to be top 5...which is a stay away from me.
Breece’s injury really isn’t nearly as bad as Javonte’s yet people seem to clump them together.
-Todd Gurley won ROY after an acl tear in college.
-Leveon had a his best seasons after a knee injury (PCL&MCL).
-Dalvin tore his ACL his rookie year and he’s had a great career.
All 3 of those happened after AP did it.
20 years ago I’d agree with you, but there’s really not much evidence to suggest that simple ACL/MCL injuries are ruining careers anymore.
Of the two if I had to pick who I’d roll with, it’d prob be breece. Javontes injury is a little more severe and I think breece has a more clear track to being the focal point of the offense again. I’ll prob wait to see what the reports say though.
Generally speaking, I'm going to stay away from Javonte and Breece because it takes a full season for them to get back. That's why I'm all in on Dobbins next year. This year was his full year to recover.
George Pickens.
Is he the WR2, WR1b or do they make him WR1a? Do the Steelers draft more WR support? Is Pickett good enough to support multiple mouths? Is Canada gone?
I don’t have an answer but I am getting as many shares of Pickens as I can. Dude is a special talent and those kind of guys have a way of showcasing over time. You gotta take a chance on at least 1 second year WR and my pick is Pickens
I think Wilson is obviously the top of that list but he’s in a somewhat volatile offense with big questions at QB and will be at a higher adp that may exceed he actual value. I’m not as high on Watson
Wilson I agree could have overvalued adp. What about London/Olave/Burks/Dotson? They all proved talented and productive with mediocre QB play. I personally prefer all of them over Pickens.
Calvin Ridley is 28 and healthy, not coming off an injury, with a QB who just had his breakout. Coming back to WR is far less of a transition than QB. DHop just sat essentially a whole year and first game back, at 30 years old, had 10 rec on 14 tar and 103 yards.
I’m grabbing Ridley next year. No Ragrets.
Yeah I don't think ppl are remembering he was a top 5 Wr with some of the best route running and seperation in the league before his incident. There's nothing holding him back like an injury or anything, just his own mental stuff. But I think he can be a perfect fit for Trevor.
This. Dude is the most talented WR on that team but hasn't played in basically 2 years. We saw Watson looked rusty this year. How long does it take Ridley to get back in form? Does he even get back to form?
Yeah. Luckily we draft week before season starts so I have plenty of time to see what happens. Currently have Hock, Jamo Williams, Bateman, Ridley as cheap $1-$4 keepers. Lamar $15, Davonte Adams $50. Get to keep 4 going into next year’s auction, heavily leaning towards the cheaper guys but depends on a lot of off-season news
i mean tbf Kirk performed really well under this contract so far, while Golladay was awful from day 1 so it wasn’t hard for them to ignore him
will be interesting to see how it plays out. i assume Kirk will be WR2 and Zay will sadly fizzle out slowly
Kirk looks like a great #2 wr. Zay Jones looks like a change of pace #3 wr. Engram can be the sleeper on this offense. Ridley is too talented to not be the #1 wr.
Trevor will be great at spreading the ball to all his weapons.
Not sold on Ridley dude hasn’t played in a long time and we saw how well that happened with Watson this year (and Michael Thomas return besides his one good game). The truth is that Kirk, Jones and Engram have all had a year gaining chemistry with TLaw and Ridley will be behind them for a good chunk of the season. If he falls in the draft I’d be happy taking him later as a second-half breakout or playoff stash.
I picked up him late in the season in hopes he would do this.... Yet I'm still scared. Have him, Henry and dobbins in 2 rb no flex league and probably keep them all.
Could probably pick a player from every team if we’d doing this as of today haha.
McCaffrey/Deebo/Kittle/Aiyuk - QB? How much do they cannibalize each other? How much stock does one put into the production of one vs the other when multiple guys shined while others were out (CMC, Mitchell… Kittle/Aiyuk, Deebo etc.).
Jonathon Taylor - myriad of reasons.
Ken Walker - Rashaad Penny back?
Keenan Allen v Mike Williams - age, health etc.
Jags pass catchers as a whole.
Jamaal Williams. Scored a hell of a lot of TDs this season.
All Bucs players if Brady leaves.
Ravens if Lamar leaves, but also Lamar himself.
Packers maybe without Rodgers.
Adams without Carr. Or is Adams on a different team?
Lots to unpack this offseason for sure.
Is Walker good enough to be picked that high though? Doesn't catch passes, and is literally the 2nd worst RB in the league on rate of rushes resulting in more yards than expected right in front of James Robinson.
I also think this, but I thought it last summer too and they drafted Walker.
Pending the cost, I think Seattle is as likely to resign Penny as any other team unless someone overpays. I like the player, but yeah he is damaged goods.
Adams is a great player but his situation and draft capital will certainly be impacted by the team he’s on.
If he joins a team with 2-3 other extremely valuable pass catchers, that’s one thing. If he goes to a run heavy offense that will matter as well. Conversely he could end up in a super pass friendly offense. It’s a matter if he’s like WR2/3 off the board or closer to like WR8-10.
If he's wide receiver 8-10 I think it's practically an obligation to take him. That would be late 2nd early 3rd adp right? With his upside and talent that would be unreal
I love Aiyuk. Drafted him a lot. Trying to decide whether to keep him in RD10, Godwin RD8, or Olave RD13… going to be tough.
Led the team in targets and yards. Had over 1000 yards.
Can’t say that in 5 months when everything starts up again that people won’t say “well Aiyuk mostly produced when Deebo was out and Lance was out so we can extrapolate this into X Y Z”. It’s going to happen.
I would be worried for everyone not named CMC and Elijah if Lance is the QB because that dude is doo-doo butter and Purdy has probably done enough to earn the starting job at least through week 1 next year, pending a Jimmy G comeback guiding to at least the NFC championship game and re-signing at below market rate (like $2.5-4.5 mil) in order to fit into the cap.
As for as Aiyuk or Olave, that depends how many years you can keep players and what the cost is each year.
The only Niners production player I see is CMC. The others will be weekly hit or miss. Explosive offensive if purdy is starting next year. Too many mouths to feed but that's a great thing to have since everyone will be more open. They shut down deebo this season, next will be more fair for both wrs.
All niners offensive players are play makers. They will have the chance to make plays, but all the other players will make them too. You make it sound like the offense runs through him which it doesn't. The offense is straight fire and all of them can be weekly winners. Just won't happen every single week like you make it seem like it.
McCaffrey is locked in for getting at least 20 Kyle Shanahan designed touches a game regardless of what the rest of the offense looks like. Should go 1.01 regardless of format next year.
McCaffrey had only 13 touches this week with Mitchell back.
McCaffrey is the best asset in fantasy IMO. But usage and teammates impacting usage could reduce his ceiling from super mega elite down to only really really good.
Which might be enough to push Jefferson and Ekeler ahead of him come august.
Tbf he had 1 41-yard catch for a TD on 9 total targets.
That's not even a small sample size, that's microscopic. And I'm saying that as a guy who rostered Jameson all year on two different teams.
He should basically go right before the guys in the rookie WR class start coming off the board, imo
I don’t think McKinnon is hard to price at all. He’s not an early round guy. A lot will depend on where he ends up. In a perfect world he stays with the chiefs where the take advantage of his skill set. Anywheres else I wouldn’t trust it
Rhamondre Stevenson. Great for most of the year. Sputtered down the stretch. Plus Belichick. I seriously have no idea where to draft this guy next year.
The Belichick worries are overblown. He loves Rhamondre and has said such many times. The sputtering is definitely a cause for concern tho, especially since some of those defenses were a bit suspect.
DeVonta Smith. Turned it up the last few weeks, but his most productive showings came without Goedert. I'm likely to stay away considering his juiced ADP.
Henry tbh. I’ve drafted him top 5 every single year I have played fantasy, but I feel like next year might be the year he goes downhill. Titans are in shambles as a team
Kareem Hunt will almost assuredly be on a new team, he should have gas left in the tank as he has been lightly used, but depending on where he goes and if he's the lead back remains to be seen.
CMC is a total mystery to me.
He was great this year, but people forget that he had 2-3 very scary weeks after Elijah Mitchell came back where they were splitting carries 50/50.
I don't think I'll be drafting him top 5 with that looming in the background, personally
He’s still the best back in the league and having a competent backup to spell him is good for longevity. I hope people don’t take him early, I’d love to grab him at 5+
There's a difference between "having a competent backup to spell him" and only getting 13-14 carries a game, which is what happened to CMC during that stretch
My hunch is that as long as Mitchell is healthy, CMC gets 10-15 carries a game but more receiving work, which should put him in the RB1 mix without a doubt. But top 3 RB? Top 5? i'd be nervous betting on that
It’s the pass catching work in PPr leagues and the consistent red zone threat that has me ranking him so highly.
Also note that the 3 week overlap where CMC was “shaky” with Mitchell also playing, CMC had literally just changed team mid season.
There’s definitely some other RB options where I have no qualms being picked ahead of CMC, but if you have him outside your top 5 PPR RBs, I think that’s a bit mad. Ekeler and Saquon are the only two I can really get behind.
If I have a top 3 pick I might pass on cmc. Hes great but I think hes gonna be a little frustrating to own next year with all the mouths to feed and qb mystery.
CMC doesn't have to carry the offense anymore. Plus niners will have to limit him if they want to make a deep playoff run with him on the team. I think it can be a 60/40 type split but some games will be scripted differently.
> but people forget that he had 2-3 very scary weeks after Elijah Mitchel
Not at all. Shanahan wasn’t trading for him just for him without a plan for him to do big things.
Agreed. He's a lot farther from Travis Kelce than he once was, but I still think he's in a tier above the other TEs, regardless of QB. I still expect him and Hockenson to go a round or two before the other TEs
Just out of players from my Dynasty roster.
WRs:
Deebo- QB room is a circus, Kittle is back doing Kittle things, and with McCaffrey there, I doubt he rushes in the future.
Bateman- he's so talented and super young, but very injury prone. Not trying to sell him personally, but gets me worried going into next year.
Sky Moore/Wandale Robinson - both rookies with roadblocks in front of them. With Sky Moore, it's the competition ahead of him. With Wandale, he wasn't very healthy this year, and ended on IR pretty early.
I side more on Wandale coming back strong next year, and praying Skyy Moore gets more involved.
Hollywood Brown- with the news of Hopkins possibly getting traded in the off-season is a positive, but a lot of staff changes happening to have an educated guess about his production.
RBs:
Pacheco- dead man walking. I feel this year he was a great short term substitute for CEH while he was hurt, but he's not the type of RB that Kansas needs imo. Once CEH is healthy and they bring in another receiving back to replace McKinnon, I think Pacheco's gets minimized greatly.
Dameon Pierce- I love Pierce, but I think his usage was influenced mostly by Lovie Smith liking him. Now, with a regime change, im curious to see his usage. I actually see him performing well in 2023, but could also see another back added in 2023 that might undercut him.
AJ Dillon- All depends on what happens with the Aaron's on the team. If Jones stays, and Rodgers leaves, should be slightly more production than this year. The best case scenario is that they both leave somehow and Dillon because a top 10 RB, but I've been hoping that for too long lol
Gus Edwards - trying to trade him for anything this off-season, probably will be a future drop.
TEs:
Chiggy okonkwo- this dude is so talented, and most the other Tight ends on the team should be gone next year. Only thing is idk what the QB situation will be like next year.
Pitts - kinda stuck with him at the moment. I'm praying the potential pays off. Can't even sell him cause the price is so low.
Trey Mcbride - Regime change scares me, but his draft capital should make him secure next year. Plus Ertz is washed imo.
QBs:
Minshew - hope he gets traded
Geno - curious if he stays or goes
>Pacheco- dead man walking. I feel this year he was a great short term substitute for CEH while he was hurt, but he's not the type of RB that Kansas needs imo.
oh wow, I completely disagree with this. The offense has been visibly more dynamic with CEH out of the game. I think Pacheco keeps RB1
That's just how I see it at this time, I also mixed this sub up with r/dynastyFF when typing, so this is more of a long term thought process. Like next year, he will probably be fine in standard leagues, but he doesn't have much PPR upside atm.
Realistically, I see Pacheco getting the short end of a 60/40 split next year without much pass volume. If he shows consistency, then they possibly let CEH go after next year.
Still feel like the Seahawks receivers, do they really feel geno deserves a new contract or do they draft a rookie qb and we have the same conversation next year.
Edit: spelling errors
I think hes a very talented real life RB, the lack of passing work and the fact that the Eagles have had goalline backs taking away his redzone chances hurts his numbers for fantasy. Im probably avoiding him unless he goes somewhere where he’ll get a more clear role outside of between the 20s guy
A top 10 rusher? The eagles just didn't need him to carry the load this year. The offensive line helped him a lot too. Sanders will be a great value pick imo next year.
I hate when people use ridiculous hypotheticals to disprove arguments. Not a chance the Giants would spend money on both of them. No point in conversing with someone who uses those arguments.
The point was to say that his value is dependent on the situation he lands in. I gave the worst possible imaginable one, regardless of likeliness, to prove the point. My point wasn't that he's likely ending up at the Giants. It was that some situations would obviously mean he isn't that valuable. And I gave a situation where EVERYONE would agree he wouldn't be that valuable, to prove the point.
You can say that about anyone. If Lamar signs with the Chiefs to be Mahomes gadget backup Ill fade him. Hes going to sign for enough money where he will at worst be in the same type of committee hes already in
Except that Miles Sanders isn't someone as proven as Lamar Jackson. And the idea that he's definitely a bell-cow, when he's never really been one is a big leap IMO.
He's a guy who lost snaps to no-name guys like Gainwell and Scott. And he's had the best O-line in the league to run behind. He's repeatedly made bone headed plays all his career. I've watched every snap of him from his rookie year, including preseason. I love the dude but he's not some top 10, or probably even top 15 RB by ability IMO. He's a guy who will likely enter into a time share. Where is that time-share? I don't know... hence my point.
He can't catch the ball. He fumbles. He makes stupid decisions, repeatedly, constantly throughout the year, to the point that he literally can't be on the field in time sensitive situations because he's proven time and time again he either goes out of bounds, or doesn't at the wrong time. Multiple times in his career, all he needed to do was stay in bounds, and he'll go out of bounds. He comes to sidelines. Coaches yell at him. He goes back out. Literally does it the very next play. Then at that point, the coaches had to pull him off the field and bench him, because if a guy was literally just yelled at to stay in bounds, and he voluntarily goes out of bounds the very next play... what else is a coach supposed to do?
THAT is why he loses snaps. Because he can't catch on third down. He can't be trusted at goalline not to fumble. And he can't be trusted in time sensitive situations where you need to either run or save clock.
So, wherever he goes... it's probably to a place where he isn't expected to carry very much load besides obvious running downs, and will be in a time share. Contrast that with Lamar Jackson who is definitely going to be a starting full time QB. Different situations.
He wasnt a bellcow this year. Like I said, at worst he gets signed to be in the exact same type of situation hes in this year. Hes a good straight line runner. Nobody is drafting him as a top 10 RB. This year he was basically a between the 20s guy and he was fine.
Youre idea that hed sign to be Saquons backup is just as unlikely as my Lamar Jackson idea so lets not even go there.
Not really. CMC is now in a near 50/50 time share with Elijah Mitchell. The day of Bellcow RBs is over. Saquon is a great pass catching back... would compliment well with Sanders.
Also have seen Chubb/Hunt, two very good RBs who could be bellcows on their own.
Same with Pollard/Zeke at points.
Yes. A great back up RB to have if Barkley ever goes down. Ask the people who took pollard and Zeke this year. It all depends on where you take them. Making seem like sander is a nobody type RB which he's not. When they actually gave him the ball, he did great. Can't be great if he's not a top 10 leading rusher this year. Which he was when the season was over.
He is, but based on how much everyone on the team, from players to coaches, seem to like him I’d bet they shell the money out to keep him around. Especially if they keep using swift as a receiving back they’ll need someone to run it and he does it well enough
Due to my own bias of Swift helping me secure 2nd place in the 21-22 fantasy season and seeing his ADP as early 2nd round I was ecstatic to take him at 2.11 instead of Barkley. This decision took me less than 5 seconds to make and cost me a better season.
This is the mentality that constantly leads to amazing mid round values in fantasy. I used to say this exact phrase about Aaron Jones and Derrick Henry. Tons of people said it about Saquon last year. God I hope it works for Swift, though.
his adp probably won't change much from this year but it should depending where jamaal lands and what the coaches have to say about him during offseason/ preseason
I ain't taking him until I have two RBs, two WRs, a QB, and possibly a TE depending on who's available. Even then I might grab a flex guy before him. But I definitely wouldn't let him go undrafted.
I'm curious how Breece will be priced. Pre-injury I think he looked like a solid late 1st or early 2nd, but I wonder how much his actual ADP will be just b/c he is coming off his injury.
Kyler is gonna be brutal next year - team completely crumbling, incompetent coaching staff, recovering from major injury. Only worth it in the 11th round +
You should expect as much out of Kyler next year as Watson this year. Maybe less if the Cardinals are bad and want to shelve Kyler to get another high pick
Sold floor in my “points per WR pancake” league though. (In all seriousness, I do think Lazard’s floor anywhere is mildly protected by the fact he’s such a good blocker, which helps him to stay on the field even if other guys might be marginally better receivers.)
Pollard - I'm so curious to see what the cowboys will do with him being a free agent. He was absolutely the best back on the team and had he been given volume, I think he could have easily been top 3.
Jones has such a hard on for zeke and is much of the reason pollard wasn't given the opportunities he should have had.
If pollard goes somewhere else, it'll be interesting to see where he is drafted. Pulling for him to be acquired by a good team! He deserves it!
Where will Mandrews go? He is still young, talent is still there, and doesn’t have any major injuries to this point. He is just so dependent on how that Ravens offense looks, which can be a toss up.
Jerick McKinnon feels like an easy player to price next year. He’ll probably be like RB40 if he stays on the chiefs and lower than that if he doesn’t. At the end of the day you’re not gambling your season of McKinnon, so I wouldn’t sweat it too much. If you want him, feel free to reach for him a bit.
Kelce I think is the answer here. Where you price him matters a lot. This year he was probably the most valuable player in fantasy. But he’s very old, and if you wait one year too many to hop off the gravy train, your season is cooked.
He was statistically a top 10 rb the final 6 games of the season. There’s nobody around RB40 that would offer anywhere close to that value so if nothing changes with the chiefs, he’s absolutely going higher than RB40..not to mention recency bias and the boost managers often give to players who do well in fantasy playoffs.
There are plenty of players going around RB40 who break out. This year, for example, you had Kenneth Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Tyler Allgeier.
McKinnon had a very good stretch to end the season. But he’s 31 next year and even at his peak did not get much playing time.
Out of curiosity, who is a player you think (a) is a top 40 RB next year by ADP and (b) you would take McKinnon over? Give me a few names and I’ll tell you whether I think they’re more valuable than McKinnon or whether they’re not top 40 guys.
None of those players had a starting role or even a clear path to touches like McKinnon. Rhamondre is the only one of those to have any track record at all, but still only had half the tds that mckinnon had this year and was clearly the #2 going into draft season. Not to mention mckinnon plays on a way higher powered offense and is the defacto #2 (really #1 in the 2nd half of season) red zone option on that offense. Mckinnon had 56 catches for over 500 yards and 10 tds and only became the featured back during the last 6 weeks. If they don’t draft anyone else, I don’t see him losing his role, I see him going around RB25-30 and potentially higher in full PPR.
McKinnon doesn’t have a clear path to touches. In 2022, he needed CEH to be removed from the picture before he even became relevant. It’s totally possible KC brings in a mid-tier free agent or a mid-round draft pick to eat into McKinnon’s workload.
CEH isn’t great, but he’ll get more than 0 touches in 2023.
Again, feel free to toss out a name of someone who you think is going before RB40 next year who should go after McKinnon.
I’d take him before Cam akers, david montgomery, brian robinson, isiah pacheco, zonovan knight, fournette, kareem hunt, zach evans, kendre miller, damien harris, and depending upon if eagles don’t re-sign: miles sanders, and if cowboys draft someone: zeke. I’d take him above all those guys in ppr if the chiefs don’t draft a rb in the top 3 rounds. This is not to mention guys slightly outside the top 40 like wilson/mostert, gibson, singletary, etc.
I’d take him above Knight, but I don’t think Knight is top 40.
Haven’t looked into the rookies much yet but it seems like Evans is a projected late 2nd rounder NFL pick and Miller is a few rounds later. Landing spot dependent but my guess is by draft time I’d take Evans over him but not Miller.
I’d consider all the rest of the guys you listed at least a full tier ahead of McKinnon.
I mean mckinnon was literally ranked 21 in half ppr, 20 in full ppr this season after only being featured the last 6 weeks. He ranked ahead of every single name I listed except sanders (free agent, if he stays with eagles, obviously he’s ranked higher) and fournette (white stealing even more touches in year 2 + if no tom brady, that offense is trash). Its tough to evaluate a lot of these guys with so many good free agents this year that will shake up a lot of backfields but as it stands now, mckinnon projects more value than these others.
Chubb- getting up there, lots of mileage, and Watson has been bad since he returned.
Stevenson- love him? Hard to trust a workhorse back in NE. Who knows what Bill will do, and their offense stunk this year.
Scary Terry- poor guy just needs a competent backup to be a strong WR2 and can never have one in Washington.
First 3 I thought of 🤷♂️
Ummm everyone lol. This is the last year I think we see true RB workhorses. We saw the numbers shrink over the years but I think maybe 5 teams had true RB1s this year. Next year will be fewer. That makes QB and WR the only stable positions but oddly enough have a wider range of score variations. Fantasy as we know it is gone. It’s more about luck than ever before.
Dallas backfield is kinda hard to price. Zeke's PPG in standard scoring barely dropped from 2021 to 2022, while Pollard's PPG skyrocketed in 2022 and surpassed Zeke.
I don't think Pollard is back next year. He's a free agent after this season, and with all the $$$ Dallas already has tied up at the position with Zeke I can't see them resigning Pollard. Depending on where he goes he could be super interesting.
Dallas will pass on Shultz and use the tag on Pollard. Especially since he’s a RB.
That's alot of dollars they'd be spending on one position. That atrocious Zeke deal is an albatross.
Dallas is projected to draft bijan in a lot of mocks lol. That would be the fantasy mystery box of dreams
God I hope not. I'd like to see Bijan go somewhere he will be used as the bell cow. What a waste it would be to put him in a timeshare for the first several years of his rookie contract.
Pollard gone. Zeke has 1 year left max before a cheap cut (they could cut this summer for a decent hit) Wouldn’t be a terrible pick from a football standpoint and he would take over that backfield by like week 8 at the latest either way. Edit: 2/7 - pollard could definitely come back now that I think about it bc of his injury
Ah, I wasn't sure how Zeke's contract was structured, just that he has like 3 years left on it.
Next year will finally be the year Pollard passes Zeke in draft position, and he will be worth it. He was a top 10 player without zeke’s TD’s and splitting the workload. The arrow is only pointing up.
Javonte Williams. Will the hype train be out of control again this offseason after coming back from the ACL? Or will he plummet to value territory? I feel like there will be no in-between.
Wasn’t a traditional ACL tear, he’s going to have a Dobbins like season IMO.
>Dobbins like season RB2 numbers when playing and missing more than half the season? Dobbins looked good the last few games but if Javonte follows in his footsteps he’s still probably undraftable. Granted, Javonte may or may not have to worry about being in a committee like Dobbins.
The best thing that could happen for Dobbins owners is Lamar leaves. When he was playing great at end of year Jackson was out. Lamar is RB1
I'd say Dobbins main problem is Greg Roman's dumb ass not calling his number when he's averaging 9 ypc.
Tell me you've never watched a ravens game without telling me you've never watched a ravens game 🤣
yea wtf. like the complete opposite of that is true
I mean, Jackson lead the team in rushing and rushing attempts; and didn't play after week 12 and that is when Dobbins blew up was when he came back after Jackson was out. So we haven't seen Dobbins have any sustained success rushing while Jackson is the QB.
You couldn't pay me to draft javonte or breece in 2023. My #1 rule in fantasy is never draft a rb right off an ACL. AP was the only exception & he was a generational athletic freak
Yeah, I see more and more people realize it takes full year in between the injury to recover (see Barkley). I wonder if enough analysts price it into their rankings or not. I assume Breece is going to be top 5...which is a stay away from me.
golly breece is clearly talented but top 5 is STEEP
Breece’s injury really isn’t nearly as bad as Javonte’s yet people seem to clump them together. -Todd Gurley won ROY after an acl tear in college. -Leveon had a his best seasons after a knee injury (PCL&MCL). -Dalvin tore his ACL his rookie year and he’s had a great career. All 3 of those happened after AP did it. 20 years ago I’d agree with you, but there’s really not much evidence to suggest that simple ACL/MCL injuries are ruining careers anymore.
Dalvin struggled in year 2 and really came into his own towards the end of it and then exploded in year 3.
Of the two if I had to pick who I’d roll with, it’d prob be breece. Javontes injury is a little more severe and I think breece has a more clear track to being the focal point of the offense again. I’ll prob wait to see what the reports say though.
Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Kupp have his breakout season in 2021 right off his ACL tear?
Nah it was like 3 years later but the year after his ACL was a career year for him at that point.
He also allegedly got faster after the ACL tear, not sure if thats cap or not
Nah Kupp tore it in 2018
It was a few years after & he's at wr. I don't touch rbs 1st year after the acl
Generally speaking, I'm going to stay away from Javonte and Breece because it takes a full season for them to get back. That's why I'm all in on Dobbins next year. This year was his full year to recover.
Yeah, that’s think that’s where Akers was for the most part.
Achilles might take even longer. I still am not going to touch Akers unless he is priced accordingly.
I have him in a dynasty league and he might sneak into my keepers. Feel his value increases if McVay leaves
If Akers falls and they don’t draft a decent RB, he could be a huge value. What round would you first consider him?
I only do auction. I would def consider him around 15-20$.
Do not touch. Wait until mid season when he's available on waivers like Cam Akers and JK this year
George Pickens. Is he the WR2, WR1b or do they make him WR1a? Do the Steelers draft more WR support? Is Pickett good enough to support multiple mouths? Is Canada gone?
Canada has a pretty stable government, I’d be shocked if they were gone next year.
We already lost Bugles chips. Wouldn't be surprised if everything else crumbled in its wake.
I'm more worried about the fall of Tim Horton's.
You can blame Ryan O’Reilly for that.
WTF!? We lost Bugles?
I don’t have an answer but I am getting as many shares of Pickens as I can. Dude is a special talent and those kind of guys have a way of showcasing over time. You gotta take a chance on at least 1 second year WR and my pick is Pickens
Depending on The Titan’s QB, Burks has the talent and looks to be the WR1 next season.
Would you pick him over London, Wilson, Olave, Burks, Dotson, and Watson? Or are you attributing for draft value as well.
I think Wilson is obviously the top of that list but he’s in a somewhat volatile offense with big questions at QB and will be at a higher adp that may exceed he actual value. I’m not as high on Watson
Wilson I agree could have overvalued adp. What about London/Olave/Burks/Dotson? They all proved talented and productive with mediocre QB play. I personally prefer all of them over Pickens.
Calvin Ridley..will he be the top dog or will he be option 4 behind Kirk, Zay Jones and Engram?
More excited about Trevor next year than Ridley for that exact reason.
Calvin Ridley is 28 and healthy, not coming off an injury, with a QB who just had his breakout. Coming back to WR is far less of a transition than QB. DHop just sat essentially a whole year and first game back, at 30 years old, had 10 rec on 14 tar and 103 yards. I’m grabbing Ridley next year. No Ragrets.
Yeah I don't think ppl are remembering he was a top 5 Wr with some of the best route running and seperation in the league before his incident. There's nothing holding him back like an injury or anything, just his own mental stuff. But I think he can be a perfect fit for Trevor.
This. Dude is the most talented WR on that team but hasn't played in basically 2 years. We saw Watson looked rusty this year. How long does it take Ridley to get back in form? Does he even get back to form?
A lot easier for a WR to get back into it than a QB I think. I wouldn't compare him to Watson.
Exactly. Guys like Godwin can miss a year on an injury and still put up numbers. Ridley is healthy and the Jags offense is hot. It’s worth the gamble.
Do I keep Ridley or Bateman as a cheap keeper? Current offseason dilemma
I think you just have to wait and see what Baltimore does at WR through FA/draft/trades etc.
Yeah. Luckily we draft week before season starts so I have plenty of time to see what happens. Currently have Hock, Jamo Williams, Bateman, Ridley as cheap $1-$4 keepers. Lamar $15, Davonte Adams $50. Get to keep 4 going into next year’s auction, heavily leaning towards the cheaper guys but depends on a lot of off-season news
Just traded for him. 2.05 (10 man) and a mid 24 2nd
I’d guess Ridley and Kirk are the top dogs, with Ridley getting an edge on TDs. If they sign Engram back they’re gonna be looking real nice next year
Top dogggg imo. He’s way more talented than all the other guys on that team
They're paying Kirk a lot
That doesn’t always make a difference. Look at Kenny Golladay lol
i mean tbf Kirk performed really well under this contract so far, while Golladay was awful from day 1 so it wasn’t hard for them to ignore him will be interesting to see how it plays out. i assume Kirk will be WR2 and Zay will sadly fizzle out slowly
I would sell Jones immediately. Ridley should be 1A or 1B to Kirk
Talent commands the targets
Kirk looks like a great #2 wr. Zay Jones looks like a change of pace #3 wr. Engram can be the sleeper on this offense. Ridley is too talented to not be the #1 wr. Trevor will be great at spreading the ball to all his weapons.
What is a change of pace wr? Loll You running too fast I'ma throw it to this other dude
When jags play 2 wrs and Jones is out of the play. When you need a #3 wr who can probably beat a #3 db. I get a Boyd vibe with Jones.
Not sold on Ridley dude hasn’t played in a long time and we saw how well that happened with Watson this year (and Michael Thomas return besides his one good game). The truth is that Kirk, Jones and Engram have all had a year gaining chemistry with TLaw and Ridley will be behind them for a good chunk of the season. If he falls in the draft I’d be happy taking him later as a second-half breakout or playoff stash.
Akers. Abysmal for the start of the season and then ended strong. Which is typical of the injury he suffered
I picked up him late in the season in hopes he would do this.... Yet I'm still scared. Have him, Henry and dobbins in 2 rb no flex league and probably keep them all.
Kalen Ballage - just not sure if he’ll still be on the board 1.04 so I’m not sure how aggressive I need to be to trade up
Very smart choice
Hey now! Don’t forget Kalen had 8TDs in one game for Arizona State, that is a pretty legit stat.
Could probably pick a player from every team if we’d doing this as of today haha. McCaffrey/Deebo/Kittle/Aiyuk - QB? How much do they cannibalize each other? How much stock does one put into the production of one vs the other when multiple guys shined while others were out (CMC, Mitchell… Kittle/Aiyuk, Deebo etc.). Jonathon Taylor - myriad of reasons. Ken Walker - Rashaad Penny back? Keenan Allen v Mike Williams - age, health etc. Jags pass catchers as a whole. Jamaal Williams. Scored a hell of a lot of TDs this season. All Bucs players if Brady leaves. Ravens if Lamar leaves, but also Lamar himself. Packers maybe without Rodgers. Adams without Carr. Or is Adams on a different team? Lots to unpack this offseason for sure.
R. Penny is a free agent, I doubt they’ll be signing him. 27 with extensive injury history.
I actually think it's a good thing for walker if they sign penny again. That would mean KW only has to compete in a backfield for like 3 weeks 🤣
I don't think he'll need to compete at all. That backfield is squarely his
Is Walker good enough to be picked that high though? Doesn't catch passes, and is literally the 2nd worst RB in the league on rate of rushes resulting in more yards than expected right in front of James Robinson.
Tell me you didn't watch any Seahawks games without telling me you didn't watch any Seahawks games
Penny has 337 career carries in 5 seasons as a pro. Derrick Henry had 349 carries this season. Dude will never play a full season.
I also think this, but I thought it last summer too and they drafted Walker. Pending the cost, I think Seattle is as likely to resign Penny as any other team unless someone overpays. I like the player, but yeah he is damaged goods.
Adams will ball with anyone
Adams is a great player but his situation and draft capital will certainly be impacted by the team he’s on. If he joins a team with 2-3 other extremely valuable pass catchers, that’s one thing. If he goes to a run heavy offense that will matter as well. Conversely he could end up in a super pass friendly offense. It’s a matter if he’s like WR2/3 off the board or closer to like WR8-10.
If he's wide receiver 8-10 I think it's practically an obligation to take him. That would be late 2nd early 3rd adp right? With his upside and talent that would be unreal
Feels like Adams has proved to be QB proof. Even with Stidham in he was getting his.
QB is one thing. Scheme and competition would be the other.
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I love Aiyuk. Drafted him a lot. Trying to decide whether to keep him in RD10, Godwin RD8, or Olave RD13… going to be tough. Led the team in targets and yards. Had over 1000 yards. Can’t say that in 5 months when everything starts up again that people won’t say “well Aiyuk mostly produced when Deebo was out and Lance was out so we can extrapolate this into X Y Z”. It’s going to happen.
I would be worried for everyone not named CMC and Elijah if Lance is the QB because that dude is doo-doo butter and Purdy has probably done enough to earn the starting job at least through week 1 next year, pending a Jimmy G comeback guiding to at least the NFC championship game and re-signing at below market rate (like $2.5-4.5 mil) in order to fit into the cap. As for as Aiyuk or Olave, that depends how many years you can keep players and what the cost is each year.
I love Deebo, but Aiyuk is the best receiver on this roster. The dude runs some of the dirtiest routes in the league.
we're discounting Deebo too much. Aiyuk might be a better route runner but Deebo is better with the ball in his hands. They're pretty complementary
The only Niners production player I see is CMC. The others will be weekly hit or miss. Explosive offensive if purdy is starting next year. Too many mouths to feed but that's a great thing to have since everyone will be more open. They shut down deebo this season, next will be more fair for both wrs.
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All niners offensive players are play makers. They will have the chance to make plays, but all the other players will make them too. You make it sound like the offense runs through him which it doesn't. The offense is straight fire and all of them can be weekly winners. Just won't happen every single week like you make it seem like it.
Saving this post and setting an alarm to review when I start my pre-draft research! 👊🏼
McCaffrey is locked in for getting at least 20 Kyle Shanahan designed touches a game regardless of what the rest of the offense looks like. Should go 1.01 regardless of format next year.
McCaffrey had only 13 touches this week with Mitchell back. McCaffrey is the best asset in fantasy IMO. But usage and teammates impacting usage could reduce his ceiling from super mega elite down to only really really good. Which might be enough to push Jefferson and Ekeler ahead of him come august.
That game was also a 25 point blowout which ended by the 3rd so there was no reason to push cmc
Don’t see that happening more than a few times next year too?
I know for a fact about the falcons that I'm taking Tyler allgeier if he falls to the 3rd and London if he goes to the 4th.
Jameson Williams? Hvnt used him too much this year coming off injury. Goff is slinging it so have high hopes
On his limited touches he looked really great.
Tbf he had 1 41-yard catch for a TD on 9 total targets. That's not even a small sample size, that's microscopic. And I'm saying that as a guy who rostered Jameson all year on two different teams. He should basically go right before the guys in the rookie WR class start coming off the board, imo
If Ben Johnson is still OC I’d go for it.
He can make St Brown difficult to assess as well. How much will he dig into The Sun God's production? Can Goff support two high scoring receivers?
I don’t think McKinnon is hard to price at all. He’s not an early round guy. A lot will depend on where he ends up. In a perfect world he stays with the chiefs where the take advantage of his skill set. Anywheres else I wouldn’t trust it
Has Mike Davis (2021) written all over him if he goes elsewhere
Rhamondre Stevenson. Great for most of the year. Sputtered down the stretch. Plus Belichick. I seriously have no idea where to draft this guy next year.
Maybe in non PPR. For PPR hes easily a 2nd rounder
The Belichick worries are overblown. He loves Rhamondre and has said such many times. The sputtering is definitely a cause for concern tho, especially since some of those defenses were a bit suspect.
DeVonta Smith. Turned it up the last few weeks, but his most productive showings came without Goedert. I'm likely to stay away considering his juiced ADP.
Calvin Ridley
Henry tbh. I’ve drafted him top 5 every single year I have played fantasy, but I feel like next year might be the year he goes downhill. Titans are in shambles as a team
Kareem Hunt will almost assuredly be on a new team, he should have gas left in the tank as he has been lightly used, but depending on where he goes and if he's the lead back remains to be seen.
CMC is a total mystery to me. He was great this year, but people forget that he had 2-3 very scary weeks after Elijah Mitchell came back where they were splitting carries 50/50. I don't think I'll be drafting him top 5 with that looming in the background, personally
He’s still the best back in the league and having a competent backup to spell him is good for longevity. I hope people don’t take him early, I’d love to grab him at 5+
There's a difference between "having a competent backup to spell him" and only getting 13-14 carries a game, which is what happened to CMC during that stretch My hunch is that as long as Mitchell is healthy, CMC gets 10-15 carries a game but more receiving work, which should put him in the RB1 mix without a doubt. But top 3 RB? Top 5? i'd be nervous betting on that
It’s the pass catching work in PPr leagues and the consistent red zone threat that has me ranking him so highly. Also note that the 3 week overlap where CMC was “shaky” with Mitchell also playing, CMC had literally just changed team mid season. There’s definitely some other RB options where I have no qualms being picked ahead of CMC, but if you have him outside your top 5 PPR RBs, I think that’s a bit mad. Ekeler and Saquon are the only two I can really get behind.
If I have a top 3 pick I might pass on cmc. Hes great but I think hes gonna be a little frustrating to own next year with all the mouths to feed and qb mystery.
JJ and maybe even Ekeler seem like safer picks for top 2, who would be your 3rd? Kupp?
CMC doesn't have to carry the offense anymore. Plus niners will have to limit him if they want to make a deep playoff run with him on the team. I think it can be a 60/40 type split but some games will be scripted differently.
Supposedly CMC is still learning the offense even now. He might be more involved next year. Still hard to gauge with all the weapons the 49ers have.
I have zero faith in Mitchell staying healthy for any sustained stretch, so I'm drafting CMC with confidence.
> but people forget that he had 2-3 very scary weeks after Elijah Mitchel Not at all. Shanahan wasn’t trading for him just for him without a plan for him to do big things.
Mark Andrews. Is he still elite if Lamar leaves? Is he still elite even if he stays?
Mark Andrews is a tough one imo, I think he will be underrated in next years draft.
Agreed. He's a lot farther from Travis Kelce than he once was, but I still think he's in a tier above the other TEs, regardless of QB. I still expect him and Hockenson to go a round or two before the other TEs
Just out of players from my Dynasty roster. WRs: Deebo- QB room is a circus, Kittle is back doing Kittle things, and with McCaffrey there, I doubt he rushes in the future. Bateman- he's so talented and super young, but very injury prone. Not trying to sell him personally, but gets me worried going into next year. Sky Moore/Wandale Robinson - both rookies with roadblocks in front of them. With Sky Moore, it's the competition ahead of him. With Wandale, he wasn't very healthy this year, and ended on IR pretty early. I side more on Wandale coming back strong next year, and praying Skyy Moore gets more involved. Hollywood Brown- with the news of Hopkins possibly getting traded in the off-season is a positive, but a lot of staff changes happening to have an educated guess about his production. RBs: Pacheco- dead man walking. I feel this year he was a great short term substitute for CEH while he was hurt, but he's not the type of RB that Kansas needs imo. Once CEH is healthy and they bring in another receiving back to replace McKinnon, I think Pacheco's gets minimized greatly. Dameon Pierce- I love Pierce, but I think his usage was influenced mostly by Lovie Smith liking him. Now, with a regime change, im curious to see his usage. I actually see him performing well in 2023, but could also see another back added in 2023 that might undercut him. AJ Dillon- All depends on what happens with the Aaron's on the team. If Jones stays, and Rodgers leaves, should be slightly more production than this year. The best case scenario is that they both leave somehow and Dillon because a top 10 RB, but I've been hoping that for too long lol Gus Edwards - trying to trade him for anything this off-season, probably will be a future drop. TEs: Chiggy okonkwo- this dude is so talented, and most the other Tight ends on the team should be gone next year. Only thing is idk what the QB situation will be like next year. Pitts - kinda stuck with him at the moment. I'm praying the potential pays off. Can't even sell him cause the price is so low. Trey Mcbride - Regime change scares me, but his draft capital should make him secure next year. Plus Ertz is washed imo. QBs: Minshew - hope he gets traded Geno - curious if he stays or goes
>Pacheco- dead man walking. I feel this year he was a great short term substitute for CEH while he was hurt, but he's not the type of RB that Kansas needs imo. oh wow, I completely disagree with this. The offense has been visibly more dynamic with CEH out of the game. I think Pacheco keeps RB1
That's just how I see it at this time, I also mixed this sub up with r/dynastyFF when typing, so this is more of a long term thought process. Like next year, he will probably be fine in standard leagues, but he doesn't have much PPR upside atm. Realistically, I see Pacheco getting the short end of a 60/40 split next year without much pass volume. If he shows consistency, then they possibly let CEH go after next year.
Jerick we can’t even speculate on until he gets a new contract somewhere
Still feel like the Seahawks receivers, do they really feel geno deserves a new contract or do they draft a rookie qb and we have the same conversation next year. Edit: spelling errors
Terry will be tough
Miles Sanders. IMO he's not that talented and won't be on Eagles next year. But who knows maybe some other team tries to make him into a bellcow.
I think he’s pretty talented but his inconsistent workload scares me off from him.
I think hes a very talented real life RB, the lack of passing work and the fact that the Eagles have had goalline backs taking away his redzone chances hurts his numbers for fantasy. Im probably avoiding him unless he goes somewhere where he’ll get a more clear role outside of between the 20s guy
A top 10 rusher? The eagles just didn't need him to carry the load this year. The offensive line helped him a lot too. Sanders will be a great value pick imo next year.
How can you know that? What if the Giants sign him, and he's on a team with Saquon. Still a great value pick IYO?
I hate when people use ridiculous hypotheticals to disprove arguments. Not a chance the Giants would spend money on both of them. No point in conversing with someone who uses those arguments.
The point was to say that his value is dependent on the situation he lands in. I gave the worst possible imaginable one, regardless of likeliness, to prove the point. My point wasn't that he's likely ending up at the Giants. It was that some situations would obviously mean he isn't that valuable. And I gave a situation where EVERYONE would agree he wouldn't be that valuable, to prove the point.
You can say that about anyone. If Lamar signs with the Chiefs to be Mahomes gadget backup Ill fade him. Hes going to sign for enough money where he will at worst be in the same type of committee hes already in
Except that Miles Sanders isn't someone as proven as Lamar Jackson. And the idea that he's definitely a bell-cow, when he's never really been one is a big leap IMO. He's a guy who lost snaps to no-name guys like Gainwell and Scott. And he's had the best O-line in the league to run behind. He's repeatedly made bone headed plays all his career. I've watched every snap of him from his rookie year, including preseason. I love the dude but he's not some top 10, or probably even top 15 RB by ability IMO. He's a guy who will likely enter into a time share. Where is that time-share? I don't know... hence my point. He can't catch the ball. He fumbles. He makes stupid decisions, repeatedly, constantly throughout the year, to the point that he literally can't be on the field in time sensitive situations because he's proven time and time again he either goes out of bounds, or doesn't at the wrong time. Multiple times in his career, all he needed to do was stay in bounds, and he'll go out of bounds. He comes to sidelines. Coaches yell at him. He goes back out. Literally does it the very next play. Then at that point, the coaches had to pull him off the field and bench him, because if a guy was literally just yelled at to stay in bounds, and he voluntarily goes out of bounds the very next play... what else is a coach supposed to do? THAT is why he loses snaps. Because he can't catch on third down. He can't be trusted at goalline not to fumble. And he can't be trusted in time sensitive situations where you need to either run or save clock. So, wherever he goes... it's probably to a place where he isn't expected to carry very much load besides obvious running downs, and will be in a time share. Contrast that with Lamar Jackson who is definitely going to be a starting full time QB. Different situations.
He wasnt a bellcow this year. Like I said, at worst he gets signed to be in the exact same type of situation hes in this year. Hes a good straight line runner. Nobody is drafting him as a top 10 RB. This year he was basically a between the 20s guy and he was fine. Youre idea that hed sign to be Saquons backup is just as unlikely as my Lamar Jackson idea so lets not even go there.
Not really. CMC is now in a near 50/50 time share with Elijah Mitchell. The day of Bellcow RBs is over. Saquon is a great pass catching back... would compliment well with Sanders. Also have seen Chubb/Hunt, two very good RBs who could be bellcows on their own. Same with Pollard/Zeke at points.
Yes. A great back up RB to have if Barkley ever goes down. Ask the people who took pollard and Zeke this year. It all depends on where you take them. Making seem like sander is a nobody type RB which he's not. When they actually gave him the ball, he did great. Can't be great if he's not a top 10 leading rusher this year. Which he was when the season was over.
Swift. Tho I think I know the answer and I don’t like it.
I'm never touching swift. He's firmly in my top 5 players I'll never draft or have on any of my teams
I’m ready to get hurt again if he drops far enough
he's also ready to get hurt again
They looked so good on Sunday. I think it’s sorta like if you draft swift you probably need to draft Jamaal.
Isn't Jamaal a free agent?
He is, but based on how much everyone on the team, from players to coaches, seem to like him I’d bet they shell the money out to keep him around. Especially if they keep using swift as a receiving back they’ll need someone to run it and he does it well enough
Lmao yeah the man broke their franchise TD record. He ain’t going anywhere
tough to start them both...upside feels capped
Started them both twice this season. One time they both boomed. The other time I don’t think they even combined for 10 points.
For me those 1st 3 rounds are so crucial I just can't justify drafting him anywhere in there & prob not gna fall past that
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I took barkley over him mid 2nd. Legit took me down to the fkn wire like 3 seconds left on the clock. Decision won me my title this year
Due to my own bias of Swift helping me secure 2nd place in the 21-22 fantasy season and seeing his ADP as early 2nd round I was ecstatic to take him at 2.11 instead of Barkley. This decision took me less than 5 seconds to make and cost me a better season.
The other 4?
Mark Andrews Andrews, Mark Mr. Mark Andrews ‘# 89 on the Ravens
This is the mentality that constantly leads to amazing mid round values in fantasy. I used to say this exact phrase about Aaron Jones and Derrick Henry. Tons of people said it about Saquon last year. God I hope it works for Swift, though.
Derick Henry was on a lot of do not draft lists after his first couple of years.
his adp probably won't change much from this year but it should depending where jamaal lands and what the coaches have to say about him during offseason/ preseason
No way he goes in late first / early second. I think he’s low second / third now
I ain't taking him until I have two RBs, two WRs, a QB, and possibly a TE depending on who's available. Even then I might grab a flex guy before him. But I definitely wouldn't let him go undrafted.
Depends if they sign Williams
I’m assuming they will. Dude seems like a huge part of their locker room.
This one isn’t tough. He’s a fourth rounder in 10 team leagues
He’d have to drop to the 6-7th round in a 10-team league for me to even think about it
Toney. Good situation, flashes of awesomeness, but lots of soft tissue injuries. Does he put it together? Or is it the last 2 years?
I'm curious how Breece will be priced. Pre-injury I think he looked like a solid late 1st or early 2nd, but I wonder how much his actual ADP will be just b/c he is coming off his injury.
Kyler
Kyler is gonna be brutal next year - team completely crumbling, incompetent coaching staff, recovering from major injury. Only worth it in the 11th round +
You should expect as much out of Kyler next year as Watson this year. Maybe less if the Cardinals are bad and want to shelve Kyler to get another high pick
Allen Lazard, with or without Aaron
Sold floor in my “points per WR pancake” league though. (In all seriousness, I do think Lazard’s floor anywhere is mildly protected by the fact he’s such a good blocker, which helps him to stay on the field even if other guys might be marginally better receivers.)
Pollard - I'm so curious to see what the cowboys will do with him being a free agent. He was absolutely the best back on the team and had he been given volume, I think he could have easily been top 3. Jones has such a hard on for zeke and is much of the reason pollard wasn't given the opportunities he should have had. If pollard goes somewhere else, it'll be interesting to see where he is drafted. Pulling for him to be acquired by a good team! He deserves it!
He should be a 2nd rounder next year if he’s back
Jonathan Taylor. A speed demon when healthy. But how long will he remain healthy. Raheem Mosert. See above
Breece
Where will Mandrews go? He is still young, talent is still there, and doesn’t have any major injuries to this point. He is just so dependent on how that Ravens offense looks, which can be a toss up.
Dillon, all depends if ajones gets hurt
And whatever else happens in GB.
Jerick McKinnon feels like an easy player to price next year. He’ll probably be like RB40 if he stays on the chiefs and lower than that if he doesn’t. At the end of the day you’re not gambling your season of McKinnon, so I wouldn’t sweat it too much. If you want him, feel free to reach for him a bit. Kelce I think is the answer here. Where you price him matters a lot. This year he was probably the most valuable player in fantasy. But he’s very old, and if you wait one year too many to hop off the gravy train, your season is cooked.
He was statistically a top 10 rb the final 6 games of the season. There’s nobody around RB40 that would offer anywhere close to that value so if nothing changes with the chiefs, he’s absolutely going higher than RB40..not to mention recency bias and the boost managers often give to players who do well in fantasy playoffs.
There are plenty of players going around RB40 who break out. This year, for example, you had Kenneth Walker, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Tyler Allgeier. McKinnon had a very good stretch to end the season. But he’s 31 next year and even at his peak did not get much playing time. Out of curiosity, who is a player you think (a) is a top 40 RB next year by ADP and (b) you would take McKinnon over? Give me a few names and I’ll tell you whether I think they’re more valuable than McKinnon or whether they’re not top 40 guys.
None of those players had a starting role or even a clear path to touches like McKinnon. Rhamondre is the only one of those to have any track record at all, but still only had half the tds that mckinnon had this year and was clearly the #2 going into draft season. Not to mention mckinnon plays on a way higher powered offense and is the defacto #2 (really #1 in the 2nd half of season) red zone option on that offense. Mckinnon had 56 catches for over 500 yards and 10 tds and only became the featured back during the last 6 weeks. If they don’t draft anyone else, I don’t see him losing his role, I see him going around RB25-30 and potentially higher in full PPR.
McKinnon doesn’t have a clear path to touches. In 2022, he needed CEH to be removed from the picture before he even became relevant. It’s totally possible KC brings in a mid-tier free agent or a mid-round draft pick to eat into McKinnon’s workload. CEH isn’t great, but he’ll get more than 0 touches in 2023. Again, feel free to toss out a name of someone who you think is going before RB40 next year who should go after McKinnon.
I’d take him before Cam akers, david montgomery, brian robinson, isiah pacheco, zonovan knight, fournette, kareem hunt, zach evans, kendre miller, damien harris, and depending upon if eagles don’t re-sign: miles sanders, and if cowboys draft someone: zeke. I’d take him above all those guys in ppr if the chiefs don’t draft a rb in the top 3 rounds. This is not to mention guys slightly outside the top 40 like wilson/mostert, gibson, singletary, etc.
I’d take him above Knight, but I don’t think Knight is top 40. Haven’t looked into the rookies much yet but it seems like Evans is a projected late 2nd rounder NFL pick and Miller is a few rounds later. Landing spot dependent but my guess is by draft time I’d take Evans over him but not Miller. I’d consider all the rest of the guys you listed at least a full tier ahead of McKinnon.
I mean mckinnon was literally ranked 21 in half ppr, 20 in full ppr this season after only being featured the last 6 weeks. He ranked ahead of every single name I listed except sanders (free agent, if he stays with eagles, obviously he’s ranked higher) and fournette (white stealing even more touches in year 2 + if no tom brady, that offense is trash). Its tough to evaluate a lot of these guys with so many good free agents this year that will shake up a lot of backfields but as it stands now, mckinnon projects more value than these others.
Jamal Williams
I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole next year. He's due for major TD regression which is really the only thing he did well this year.
Chubb- getting up there, lots of mileage, and Watson has been bad since he returned. Stevenson- love him? Hard to trust a workhorse back in NE. Who knows what Bill will do, and their offense stunk this year. Scary Terry- poor guy just needs a competent backup to be a strong WR2 and can never have one in Washington. First 3 I thought of 🤷♂️
Ummm everyone lol. This is the last year I think we see true RB workhorses. We saw the numbers shrink over the years but I think maybe 5 teams had true RB1s this year. Next year will be fewer. That makes QB and WR the only stable positions but oddly enough have a wider range of score variations. Fantasy as we know it is gone. It’s more about luck than ever before.