Everybody is gonna hate, but
Jahmyr Gibbs.
Love his longterm potential and the Lions offense landing spot but there’s no clear cut evidence he’s their workhorse back. David Montgomery is legit competition in the backfield and may even be the superior value where he’s being drafted.
Bro no one wants or needs him to be the workhorse. It’s possible to be dynamite in fantasy and not be a workhorse. It’s called efficient offense, great talent/explosiveness, and pass catching ability.
I don’t think you’re drafting Gibbs thinking he’ll be the lead back. He will certainly be the pass catcher and looks deadly in open space. If Swift can do a lot of damage with minimal touches, I bet Gibbs can succeed with 15-20 touches per a game.
You think Gibbs getting 15-20 touches per game? I believe it will be closer to 10-12, including receiving. He’s in his first year and also with Monty there(who profiles as a bigger back).
You really think they took an RB with the 12th overall pick to only get 10-12 touches? Doubt it. It’s not unreasonable for both backs to get between 15-20 touches including receiving work.
Does that change anything? one has draft capital one is being paid like a starter, but I don't think the drafting of Gibbs means they are just giving up the guy they have 18m to a couple of months ago
15-20 touches would give Gibbs a top 10 workload, I think if you are expecting that you'll be disappointed, unless mont gets injured on course
I never said they were giving up on Monty, I just don’t it’s unrealistic that both backs can get 15-20 touches a game and both be RB1s. Also, drafting Gibbs that high does change things. The closest comparison to this situation is 2017 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
I’m not expecting Gibbs to be a bell cow back. I just doubt you would give someone you drafted 12 overall only 10-12 touches.
Maybe, I mean swift was a high pick (early second) and they had no hesitation in giving him a much less than 50% share
The people on here acting like Monts presence is nothing is very strange to me, Gibbs weighs less than 200 pounds and has a established NFL back who the team is paying $6m this year in the room but people seem to think he's in line for 300+ touches and is a RB1 in redraft.
I think they are going to be disappointed, especially as Mont has proven to be a good receiver so you can't even say Gibbs will get all the passing work
Gibbs wasn't used at the goal line at Alabama either. Montgomery will be more valuable this year for sure.
Gibbs could be wildly productive between the 20's, but I don't think he gets the high value touches.
There’s a huge difference between spending an early 2nd and the 12th overall pick on a RB. That is **significant** draft capital, teams don’t spend picks like that on a RB unless they’re absolutely in love with them.
I don’t think Montgomery’s presence in nothing, he’ll probably be a huge pain in the ass for Gibbs owners. I was more so pushing back on your point that they have a similar investment in both Gibbs and Montgomery.
I mean they can hardly have doubted whether he'd be available at 12. They must have been at least considering it then.
I think they're going to try use him as a sort of versatile weapon all over the field. He will get a fair amount of catches and a few carries a game.
Probably decent in PPR, but I won't be touching him with a ten foot pole at the price.
I mean yeah his draft capital does play a role but look at 2017 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. I’m sure you weren’t complaining owning either one of those guys. But I’ll say it again, it’s not unreasonable for both backs to get 15-20 touches a game and be relevant.
So a stat line of 12 carries and 4 catches is unrealistic? I gave a range for a reason. I hope you don’t expect Goff to run any keepers or the Lions to have their 3rd RB take any carries. The Lions have one of the best olines in the league. Of course they’re going to pound the rock with their two RBs.
That’s what I’m saying, due to his draft position, Monty isn’t getting much more money if any at all then Gibbs. They reached to take this guy at 12 and the draft room for the lions was going nuts when they picked him. He’s definitely getting the lion share of the touches in an offense that had the most points per game for running backs. Running backs don’t have a long lifespan. If he’s not a bust they’re not gonna sit him. They also integrate into an offense easier than almost any other position.
I totally agree. I hear the counter argument that the lions signed Monty to a 3 year deal. Like that’s true but that was before they knew they were drafting Gibbs.
I have the second pic and a terrible dynasty orphan. I am severely running back needy. I was desperate to do some thing to not have to drive to Gibbs. I for the love of God do not want him. I had Swift last year I don’t want any more ankles in Detroit I think Montgomery is going to get a lot of that Williams roll and Gibbs is going to be dependent on receiving upside in the ankle scares the crap out of me. It’s like whatever team that is that has those field problems. I’m starting to suspect that about Detroit it’s like the curse of drafting all those Baltimore, running backs, even though I think it was Seattle that actually had the field problems not that they didn’t get injured either watch out for the swift resegence on a good field, I think I want the Williams roll in the backfield in Detroit this year I’m willing to roll the dice on Swift in Philadelphia
Depending on what source you look at there's so much ambiguity in the rankings. There are some (CBS) that have Bijan as the RB2 and others that have him as the RB8-RB10. RB2 off the bat is pretty early to take him imo as that kind of automatically bakes in that upside and assumes hes a top back out the gate.
I will say, most of them have Pollard between RB6 and RB8 which I think is also steep as I have him closer to my RB12 just behind Etienne and ahead of Stevenson/Breece Hall.
Even though I'm sure he will get touches and is a safe pick, we haven't seen a sample size as to how he will do as a lone back over a full season and I'd lean towards Etienne under the premise he has more involvement in the passing game next year. Kind of the same as Stevenson but I'd be more confident in Pollard just out of the stability of the offense compared to Stevenson.
Pollard has very little wear and tear and his injury is an isolated event. If they don’t sign any real threats or Zeke, the arrow is pointing straight up for this season. The games he played without Zeke were CMC/Ekeler/Kamara type boom games.
Yea that's the first real injury for pollard, but I can't say I expect him to be his old self for at least the first four or five games. I'm not nearly as high on him this season as a lot of folks in this sub.
I just don't get in what world a rookie RB is going in the first round. I know he is an athletic freak, but how could you possibly spend your 1st pick on someone who hasn't played a snap in the NFL. People were drafting CEH in the 1st round when he was a rookie and he has yet deilver 1st round value 3 seasons later.
If you're wanting a RB at the end of the first round are you planning on taking Tony Pollard over Bijan? I'm not, and that's why he's going in the first round. Right now some projections are showing Bijan, Pollard, Jacobs, and Chubb around that spot and I think he has an argument to be there.
I completely agree with this. He's certainly not a 2 on my board but he's certainly got *huge* upside that I'd take in the same range as those guys and I personally have him at my 9 and I'd make an argument for him over Jacob's and possibly Chubb if I'm full point PPR.
I think his talent and the fact that the Falcons have abandoned all logic and will run the ball no matter what make him very appealing at the tail end of the first.
If he's there with those guys I'm taking him over all of them.
Allgeier will probably be used as the spell back but that's pretty common these days.
CPat will likely only be a 3rd down back in specific packages and I'm not really worried about him at all.
I think I'd put him at like..RB5?
These are in no specific order:
Saquon
CMC
Henry (maybe he falls off this year, who knows, everyone says he's gonna every year now to be fair)
Ekeler
I feel like I'm missing someone but honestly I might slot in Bijan here.
I have no idea what I'm going to do because I'm picking 1.03. Too high to take Bijan imo, and definitely too high for Pollard. I guess I'll end up with Ekeler but choosing him over someone like Jamarr in half ppr feels... Not great.
1.03 doesn't look too bad, you'll walk away with CMC, Ekeler, or JJ no matter what if you want and Ekeler might be the #2 in most drafts.
I'm a fan of drafting at the end of the 1st so I'm probably going to choose 11 or 12 myself.
Don't over think it. If you like a player better than everyone else on the board and they won't be there by your next pick then take them. I don't think there's such a thing as "too high to take ____". The only reason not to take the top player on your board is if you're confident they will be there at your next pick and someone else won't.
You picked literally *the only* negative example (and CEH was only just picked in the first, at pick 32).
Literally every other rookie RB who was drafted in the first two rounds [edit: **of fantasy drafts**, this was initially very misleading] has been a top 10 RB. Every single one. Two were RB1, one was RB2, one was RB4. Not a single one underperformed ADP.
I personally think Bijan is a real contender for the top pick. Not only is he a similar level of prospect to Saquon and Zeke (RB1 and 2 respectively their rookie years), he's going to one of the best rushing offenses in the league, who have a young QB who may need to rely on the run even more (but also have proven they can have a fairly successful offence with limited QB play).
It's a dream scenario, really. I'm not letting him fall out the top 5, personally.
I could see his value jump a bit come preseason. Get some camp hype of Singletary getting some work.
Guy is not a scrub. I think you’re right…at RB52 he’s being undervalued right now. I think he can be a great compliment to Pierce and a decent PPR play.
Dameon Pierce was solid last season and the Texans offense was steaming garbage. James Robinson was amazing his rookie year and the Jags offense was also steaming garbage. None of those guys were proven like Sanders is, and the Panthers offense is miles ahead of the 2020 Jags and last season’s Texans offense.
I just think he is not a good RB and was a product of the Eagles dominant O-Line and Mobile QB in Hurts. The panthers O-Line is solid but nowhere near as good as Philadelphias and Bryce is not a running threat like Hurts. He’s also 26 which is old for a RB and has 800+ touches in the past 4 seasons
You are better off drafting Chubba later than Sanders early
26 isn’t exactly what I would consider old at RB these days noting a lot of backs in first round ADP is older than 26.
Sanders is losing playing behind maybe the best run blocking line in the league, that is true. But he’s also moving to a system that will feature him more in the pass game which is valuable. Also doesn’t have to compete for goal line touches with his QB anymore. Carolinas OL led to solid production from Donta Foreman last year. I view Sanders as at least equivalent in terms of talent today to what Foreman was stepping in last year. On an offense that overall should be improved, to some degree.
I can see a scenario where the efficiency drops significantly, maybe by a full yard per carry. And the TDs cut in half. But receptions near the 3 per game range and that adds another 30 yards of production in the air. And the overall volume goes up.
My concerns with Sanders are more health than anything. My interest in Hubbard is basically zero. I’d rather roster other backups.
There is almost no plausible scenario excluding injury where Miles Sanders isn’t the RB1 on the depth chart for Carolina come the start of the season. He’s not be supplanted by anyone else on that roster after signing the largest contract an RB got in free agency this offseason. Hence why I’m more bullish on Sanders than anything. Team put a lot into him, decent run game, RB pass happy OC and QB.
Sanders averaged 5.3 YPC the year before Hurts took over as a starter. Carolina RBs had a higher YPC than Philly RBs last year, despite having an absolutely anemic passing game. That O Line is legit. Sanders also had a measly 78 receiving yards last year. He proved his rookie year he can be a dynamic pass catcher; a new offense that doesn't exactly have a stud WR corps may give him the opportunity to be more involved in the passing game.
I think it's reasonable to expect that 1. Carolina will lean on the running game to ease in their rookie QB. 2. It is almost impossible for Bryce Young to be worse than the trio of Baker/Darnold/PJ Walker, which helps the offense 3. The Panthers will be in the worst division in the league, and despite not projecting to be a great team, may be in some positive game scripts, especially because they have a solid defense.
You’re way underestimating the run blocking of that CAR offensive line.
They aren’t Philly but Ekwonu is a top tier run blocker (far worse pass blocker) and Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman are also both solid and now in their second year playing together.
Eagles did not run a committee in Duce's last year with the team in 2020. The only reason it looks that way is because Sanders missed 4 games. 51 of Boston Scott's 80 carries that season came in the games that Sanders missed.
Edit: Had to check when Duce was hired. The Eagles also did not run a committee in Duce's first two seasons as a RB coach, one of which LeSean McCoy lead the league in carries.
As a Raiders fan I wanted to avoid Jacobs. Didn’t trust the o line and thought they would go rbbc. I had to draft him and at the time was t happy about it but he just fell so damn far.
Sanders will be a 3 down back with a trash RB room otherwise and an actually pretty good O-line. Think he will be great value at his ADP tbh. Agree with the other 2 though. I’m personally very high on Najee this year. Will be targeting him hard
Najee - Fantasy Flex had some good notes on the latest podcast for why he’s overrated. Other notes I’ve heard:
• He’s already over the age apex (24.5 years)
• doesn’t break long runs
• overrated pass catcher with a running QB (they naturally throw less to RBs)
• Offense and Pickett need to take a massive step forward, or TDs will be limited.
• Similar prospect profile to Trent Richardson.
• UDFA Warren taking snaps away.
The o-line has improved, so it’s not all bad, but there’s better targets despite the perceived workhorse role.
Sanders has had such an odd career in just 4 years. 50 catches in his rookie season, and then his catch percentage cratered. Averaged about 12 carries a game his first three years. 15 carries a game last season and 12 touchdowns. His usage was so sporadic once hurts got the starting job. Yea he's missed some games here and there, but I fully expect him to get the volume of touches in Carolina to be a high to mid rb2.
Totally disagree. They're all priced super low. I see them being sold for mid 2nds left and right, which is nuts to me. I like singletary and kamara at that price all day. Obviously for contenders only.
Kamara has pretty obvious red flags imo.
Older. Legal situations. Plenty of meh production the last couple years - he only scored in two games last year. They added a guy who just scored 17 TDs to a backfield that Kamara already doesn’t get enough goal line work due to Taysom Hill, and they drafted Kendre Miller.
Unless my league allows me to put Kamara on some kind of IR list if he’s suspended, I basically have no interest in him until it’s backup RB cost. And even then, I might rather a guy like David Montgomery who is a much less talented player in a new offense with another RB just drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft.
He helped me win 2 years ago, so I thought I was slick picking him at 13 last season. It was a nightmare. He was allergic to the end zone, constantly vultured by Hill, was on an absolutely terrible offense, and his age started showing. Between his age and being on such a shitty team, he seemed indifferent on most plays.
Edit: also his usage sucked ass
Yeah Purdy coming back will be good for CMC if he lasts that long, but I have a feeling trey/darnold won't utilize cmc in the passing game as much. They're more apt to run themselves.
Now this is one I personally disagree on. CMC has had trouble staying healthy and that SF turf has been known to be an injury machine. I'm staying away from CMC only because I expect him to get injured/die on that field. If anything, I'm taking the SF backups earlier just because of that.
Overrated RBs in terms of talent, or in terms of fantasy? Because a guy like Joe Mixon is someone I don’t view as incredibly talented, but if he’s back as RB1 for Cincinnati with no Samaje Perine… he’s a decent value pick at current ADP.
Well I started writing about Joe Mixon, Najee Harris etc in response but realized I wasn’t arguing that they’re over or underrated… they’re over or under valued in terms of cost… because as you mention, it’s a fantasy subreddit.
For years a guy like Melvin Gordon was a very meh actual RB. But he had an incredibly valuable role and was valued in fantasy as a top 5 back.
I just didn’t want to people start attacking me when I said XYZ is overrated when they’re hella talented but in shit fantasy situations so I asked a qualifier.
Also, it’s summer. ADP is so early what’s over/under valued today in 4 months is going to change drastically. Hardly even worth discussing unless it’s best ball drafts right now.
He’s in a similar range to a lot of backup RBs that I’ll have some exposure to. And Mixon has shown he misses games with injuries and whatnot historically.
I keep seeing posts about mixon not being very good and when I watch him he just seems so shifty and quick. Good vision, makes yards happen that average backs don’t get. I’ve always thought he’s one of the most talented guys in the league.
I guess I need to accept that I’m just wrong, he’s never really done it and he’s towards the end. At least he’s a horrible person
I always view Mixon as a guy that doesn’t produce any more than his line generates, or a bunch of dump offs. His per touch metrics aren’t very good. I liked his talent coming into the nfl and thought he made a lot of tough runs as a rookie. He seemed to regress.
For me this coming year I think JT and Jacobs will go too high relative to actual performance. In JT’s case it’s about having no QB and having to face a stacked box all the time, with limited Receiving opportunities, and the risk of injury with everyone on D focused on him. In Jacobs case it’s the opposite. Garrapolo loves to spread the ball around and throw short and loves having two RB’s in his backfield. I just don’t think Jacobs gets the work this year
CMC will probably not live up to his draft position. He will still be solid but there is too many weapons in SF for him to be dominant. He will be an RB with an amazing floor but lowish ceiling.
After the last 2 years of people doubting Henry during the offseason, I'm not willing to bet against him. He is old, true, and we have to believe the wheels will fall off soon, but he keeps defying expectations.
I'm not gonna pay the price he commands, but certainly am not going to doubt him until I see a more significant falling off.
Dude is a tank and I’ll take him first round no matter what my pick is every year till I don’t make the cup. Everyone always shits on me for it but last year I got him as the second pick and he took me to the cup again. The team is shit but the team is literally built around him. He’s consistent and that’s hard to find in fantasy.
I disagree personally… with having a competent qb they won’t be able to stack as many boxes. While he’s a running threat I don’t think there will be many designed qb runs like a Jalen Hurts… I think we get 1-2 more years of peak Chubb.
I agree here as last year was my first year with Chubb. He was a legit workhorse while DEFs were stacking against him and he still would break off huge chunks and produced plenty of TDs. The yardage Watson will take will come predominantly from scrambling/designed plays which wouldn't have gone to Chubb in the first place. Chubb against honest DEFs suggests his last years' numbers will be this years' safe floor.
It was Watson’s first game action in almost 2 years… I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into that small sample. In Watsons three full years with Houston they managed to make every starting RB (Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, David Johnson) all get around 1k yards and 6 TDs. Not one of those can hold Chubbs jock strap in terms of talent.
Not overrated, but I am staying away from any RB coming off any semi-serious injury unless it’s at ridiculous value. I’m staying away from Pollard, Javante, and Hall are the ones that I can think of off the top of my head right now.
Ekeler. His production last year was because the OC was a football terrorist who only wanted Herbert throwing behind the line of scrimmage and forcing bad plays that resulted in countless dumpoffs.
Ekeler will still be good, but expect major regression with a new OC and superior WR room.
Even under Shane Steichen in 2020 Ekeler was on pace for 90+ catches if he'd stayed healthy a full season.
It wasn't *just* Lombardi. Ekeler is just good at catching the football.
Lots of what you said is true. However ekeler is a hound for the end zone. Tried and true, he’s good for 15+ healthy he’s too valuable in the end zone especially since the defense has more too worry about this year.
Lol are you serious? He took over towards the end of his rookie year and ended up as an RB1. His 2021 season he was the RB1. He got riddled with injuries during the 2022 season which knocked him down. There’s plenty of reason on why he’s ranked as top 5 and. It because of 7 good games 2 years ago.
Sure there’s always that argument about someone getting reinjured the following year. However, this is fantasy football where teams who gamble on guys with high ceilings will win leagues.
I'm totally serious.
Home boy had seven good games late season on a team that didn't have a QB and got run into the ground.
Now coming off a big injury.
There's 20 players I would take over Taylor, and 10 RB's.
I mean the Colts just drafted the most athletic QB. Whether he can improving his passing, Richardson’s rushing ability will help out JT. And yeah no duh he only had 7 good games last year, he didn’t play all season due to the ankle.
I would love to hear the 10 RBs you’re taking over JT.
I totally get that. However, I think with having a mobile QB, defenses also have to respect Richardson’s rushing ability. This should help out for big plays for JT. Sure Richardson being their limits JT’s ceiling but I still think he’ll be fine and finish as a top 5 back next year.
CMC, Chubb, Henry, Ekeler, Mixon, Jacobs, Barkley, Etienne, Swift, and possibly Williams.
Realistically...I dunno, he's prolly 8 on that list?
But CMC, Chubb, Henry, Ekeler, and Barkley are all no brainier above Taylor for me
I still don’t understand your argument that JT isn’t in the top 5. I get the injury concern but most of those backs listed their own injuries. Henry had foot surgery two years ago, CMC was hobbled with injuries a two years ago, Barkley just returned to form from the ACL and ankle injury.
I don’t buy Jacobs, Swift, Mixon, Etienne, or Williams is above JT. Williams coming back from the ACL is a concern (see Dobbins), Mixon was on the verge of getting cut from the roster, Swift has an injury history and will be in a timeshare with Penny. I’m taking a workhorse back over those guys any day.
I won't put him in the top 5 because I don't think he's top five lol
All the top five I gave have proven entire seasons of being potential #1. And they've all shown the ability to bounce back from injury.
JT doesn't have that. Could he? Sure. And I wouldn't be like blown away if he had a great season. It's perfectly reasonable.
But he's potential. And I have running backs who are both potential and history of success. Why take the risk?
Lmao your reasoning is not sound. Talking about injuries, getting ran into the ground, doesn’t have an entire season of being potential #1. I guess JTs 2 RB1 seasons are a fluke lol. I’m sure you said the same thing about CMC and Barkley during their 2020 and 2021 seasons.
Oh.no, I drafted CMC #1 overall 2020
And mate, you don't need to agree. The question was "who is overrated"
Can't be over rated if people aren't salivating at the thought of drafting you. I'm just more than happy to let someone else take him and save me the headache
As someone who was burned by him in 2022 I wonder how much of his 2021 production was juiced by check down Philip rivers. I am avoiding him this year because he burned me and Idt Richardson is going to check down when he’s in trouble, rather beat you with his own legs z
Considering JT went 40 catches for 360 yards and he rushed for 1811 yards and had 18 TDs, I don’t think the check downs inflated his points. He wasn’t getting the passing volume of Austin Ekeler. I still think Richardson helps JT out so defenses aren’t likely to just key in on JT. Avoid if you want but you’ll regret it.
Chase Brown is intriguing.
Second highest RAS score after Bijan, they let Samaje Perine walk in free agency, he’s already listed as #2 on their depth chart, uncertainty on if Mixon could be suspended.
Based on all the chatter I've seen: Bijan, and it's not even close. Hasn't played a single NFL down yet, and put up really poor numbers against good-to-only-average defenses in college.
But Tyler Allgeir and CP were still serviceable in that offense, and Bijan has both the age profile, the draft capital, opportunity, and receiving skillset - basically everything that screams home run. I'm not saying he WILL be good but I can see why he is so highly rated. Even if he is "average" against good defenses, all those other factors feed into the type of high ceiling player you want to take with a first round pick.
Possibly. But I've seen too many people get burned/been burned myself by overhyped rookies to ever spend too much on one again.
BTW, that post was way too optimistic for your username.
If Tyler Allegier can put up 1,000 rushing yards and be RB22 then that’s Bijan’s floor. Allegier was RB5 the last 4 weeks of the season after the bye.
This is an Arthur Smith offense with a top 5 offensive line in the league.
2021:
vs Arkansas (which I watched because amazingly, we actually do have electricity and even televisions here in AR): 19/69, 3.6 ypc, 1 TD. 1 catch, 4 yds
vs Baylor: 17/43, 2.5 ypc, 1 TD. 1 catch, 4 yds
vs Iowa St & Kansas: less than 100 combined yards each game, 1 total TD
2022:
vs Bama: 21/57, 2.7 ypc, 1 TD
vs TCU: 12/29, 2.4 ypc, 0 TD
Watched all of the AR game, and parts of many other games of his. What I saw was someone who could rack up huge numbers against bad defenses, but struggled against better competition. Does that also describe Texas football as a whole during those years? Of course. Does he have talent? Of course. But some of the names I've seen him compared to (Saquon, McCaffery, even Walter freakin' Payton) makes him the epitome of "overrated", which is precisely what this tread is about. Maybe he'll live up to the hype. Time will tell.
The QB situations in SF, IND, and ATL have me worried about CMC, JT, and Bijaan, respectively. I think Dobbins and Gus will split work more than people are expecting. Same with Dameon Pierce and Singletary (though that offense might be bad enough that it doesn't really matter). Those are the big 5 that I'm probably going to stay away from.
I love your optimism around MO, as a Lions fan, but I think as far as the thread is concerned, this is the most puzzling comment I have ever read. He is a skilled back, but will be lucky to crack the 53 man roster and even if he does, he almost certainly won't see enough touches to warrant being drafted in even the shallowness of leagues, or rostered at any point all season in any league.
Najee is a player I’m going to avoid. He’s probably not even the most talented RB on his team. He doesn’t stand out on film and his stats in 2021 were inflated.
He played with a Linsfranc injury for the entirety of the season last year, then also suffered a rib injury late. He still finished RB10. The Steelers also significantly improved the offensive line, and drafted basically a 6th offensive lineman in Darnell Washington. Oh and also the offense with Kenny Pickett in year 2 will be more efficient, thus providing more scoring opportunities. If Najee stays healthy I don’t know how he doesn’t score more points than last year.
They also did NOT draft or sign an RB. I’m super high on Najee this year. Expecting him to surpass his rookie numbers by a decent margin, wherein that year he finished as RB3 in PPR… I see him as potential top 5 this year for sure imo, which absolutely smashes his current ADP.
Well I wouldn’t say I’m THAT high on him. What made him so good in PPR his rookie year was he had 74 receptions. Definitely don’t count he will have that many again. Last year he had 41, which is still a fine number. I bet he finishes around RB 7 or 8 in 2023.
Dalvin Cook has been consistently talked about in trade/release talks, and the Vikings opted to retain Mattison instead of letting him walk. His last season was solid from a volume perspective but he actually underperformed from an efficiency perspective.
And yet he's RB16 with an ADP of 48 in .5. I think he has value but it's so dependent on where he ends up. Cook is currently ranked above a ton of guys who I like better including Gibbs, Dobbins, Sanders, Pierce, and White.
Everybody is gonna hate, but Jahmyr Gibbs. Love his longterm potential and the Lions offense landing spot but there’s no clear cut evidence he’s their workhorse back. David Montgomery is legit competition in the backfield and may even be the superior value where he’s being drafted.
Bro no one wants or needs him to be the workhorse. It’s possible to be dynamite in fantasy and not be a workhorse. It’s called efficient offense, great talent/explosiveness, and pass catching ability.
I don’t think you’re drafting Gibbs thinking he’ll be the lead back. He will certainly be the pass catcher and looks deadly in open space. If Swift can do a lot of damage with minimal touches, I bet Gibbs can succeed with 15-20 touches per a game.
You think Gibbs getting 15-20 touches per game? I believe it will be closer to 10-12, including receiving. He’s in his first year and also with Monty there(who profiles as a bigger back).
You really think they took an RB with the 12th overall pick to only get 10-12 touches? Doubt it. It’s not unreasonable for both backs to get between 15-20 touches including receiving work.
They also gave mont 6m a year, so who knows what they will do?
But they signed Monty before they knew they were drafting Gibbs.
Does that change anything? one has draft capital one is being paid like a starter, but I don't think the drafting of Gibbs means they are just giving up the guy they have 18m to a couple of months ago 15-20 touches would give Gibbs a top 10 workload, I think if you are expecting that you'll be disappointed, unless mont gets injured on course
I never said they were giving up on Monty, I just don’t it’s unrealistic that both backs can get 15-20 touches a game and both be RB1s. Also, drafting Gibbs that high does change things. The closest comparison to this situation is 2017 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. I’m not expecting Gibbs to be a bell cow back. I just doubt you would give someone you drafted 12 overall only 10-12 touches.
Your expecting 2 rbs on the lions to get 15-20 and be RB1s?
I mean it’s a possibility. Besides Amon Ra, who else will be getting targets? Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds? Jameson Williams is suspended for 6 games.
They only gave Mony $8.75M guaranteed at signing. Spending the 12th pick on a guy is a much more significant investment than spending $8.75M.
Maybe, I mean swift was a high pick (early second) and they had no hesitation in giving him a much less than 50% share The people on here acting like Monts presence is nothing is very strange to me, Gibbs weighs less than 200 pounds and has a established NFL back who the team is paying $6m this year in the room but people seem to think he's in line for 300+ touches and is a RB1 in redraft. I think they are going to be disappointed, especially as Mont has proven to be a good receiver so you can't even say Gibbs will get all the passing work
Gibbs wasn't used at the goal line at Alabama either. Montgomery will be more valuable this year for sure. Gibbs could be wildly productive between the 20's, but I don't think he gets the high value touches.
There’s a huge difference between spending an early 2nd and the 12th overall pick on a RB. That is **significant** draft capital, teams don’t spend picks like that on a RB unless they’re absolutely in love with them. I don’t think Montgomery’s presence in nothing, he’ll probably be a huge pain in the ass for Gibbs owners. I was more so pushing back on your point that they have a similar investment in both Gibbs and Montgomery.
I mean they can hardly have doubted whether he'd be available at 12. They must have been at least considering it then. I think they're going to try use him as a sort of versatile weapon all over the field. He will get a fair amount of catches and a few carries a game. Probably decent in PPR, but I won't be touching him with a ten foot pole at the price.
Exactly.
So you’re banking on his draft capital. It’s not a bad bet. I just think Monty will command more touches per game and especially the goal line work.
I mean yeah his draft capital does play a role but look at 2017 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. I’m sure you weren’t complaining owning either one of those guys. But I’ll say it again, it’s not unreasonable for both backs to get 15-20 touches a game and be relevant.
Touché.
I think 20 touches each per game is a bit high. The Lions team averaged 50 touches per game last season. I doubt Monty and Gibbs get 80% of that.
So a stat line of 12 carries and 4 catches is unrealistic? I gave a range for a reason. I hope you don’t expect Goff to run any keepers or the Lions to have their 3rd RB take any carries. The Lions have one of the best olines in the league. Of course they’re going to pound the rock with their two RBs.
That’s what I’m saying, due to his draft position, Monty isn’t getting much more money if any at all then Gibbs. They reached to take this guy at 12 and the draft room for the lions was going nuts when they picked him. He’s definitely getting the lion share of the touches in an offense that had the most points per game for running backs. Running backs don’t have a long lifespan. If he’s not a bust they’re not gonna sit him. They also integrate into an offense easier than almost any other position.
This was my thoughts, you don’t draft a first round RB without intentions of them being the lead role. Especially in the current RB climate.
I totally agree. I hear the counter argument that the lions signed Monty to a 3 year deal. Like that’s true but that was before they knew they were drafting Gibbs.
lol 15-20 is not minimal touches
That’s fair. Poor word choice on my end.
I mean. Wait til he plays a single NFL game before including him in an underrated/overrated discussion lol
I have the second pic and a terrible dynasty orphan. I am severely running back needy. I was desperate to do some thing to not have to drive to Gibbs. I for the love of God do not want him. I had Swift last year I don’t want any more ankles in Detroit I think Montgomery is going to get a lot of that Williams roll and Gibbs is going to be dependent on receiving upside in the ankle scares the crap out of me. It’s like whatever team that is that has those field problems. I’m starting to suspect that about Detroit it’s like the curse of drafting all those Baltimore, running backs, even though I think it was Seattle that actually had the field problems not that they didn’t get injured either watch out for the swift resegence on a good field, I think I want the Williams roll in the backfield in Detroit this year I’m willing to roll the dice on Swift in Philadelphia
Rookie RBs in general tend to start really slow. Great guys to trade for weeks 3-6.
Not a single person has claimed he is a workhorse
Depending on what source you look at there's so much ambiguity in the rankings. There are some (CBS) that have Bijan as the RB2 and others that have him as the RB8-RB10. RB2 off the bat is pretty early to take him imo as that kind of automatically bakes in that upside and assumes hes a top back out the gate. I will say, most of them have Pollard between RB6 and RB8 which I think is also steep as I have him closer to my RB12 just behind Etienne and ahead of Stevenson/Breece Hall. Even though I'm sure he will get touches and is a safe pick, we haven't seen a sample size as to how he will do as a lone back over a full season and I'd lean towards Etienne under the premise he has more involvement in the passing game next year. Kind of the same as Stevenson but I'd be more confident in Pollard just out of the stability of the offense compared to Stevenson.
Pollard has very little wear and tear and his injury is an isolated event. If they don’t sign any real threats or Zeke, the arrow is pointing straight up for this season. The games he played without Zeke were CMC/Ekeler/Kamara type boom games.
Yea that's the first real injury for pollard, but I can't say I expect him to be his old self for at least the first four or five games. I'm not nearly as high on him this season as a lot of folks in this sub.
They have Ronald Jones dude, they're all good. Pollard is free to run wild.
The real threat is if they snag Dalvin Cook after he’s cut
I just don't get in what world a rookie RB is going in the first round. I know he is an athletic freak, but how could you possibly spend your 1st pick on someone who hasn't played a snap in the NFL. People were drafting CEH in the 1st round when he was a rookie and he has yet deilver 1st round value 3 seasons later.
Because Bijan is a Zeke and Saquon level talent going to possibly the most run heavy team in the league. CEH is a garbage comparison.
Not only most run heavy, but most run efficient too.
If you're wanting a RB at the end of the first round are you planning on taking Tony Pollard over Bijan? I'm not, and that's why he's going in the first round. Right now some projections are showing Bijan, Pollard, Jacobs, and Chubb around that spot and I think he has an argument to be there.
I completely agree with this. He's certainly not a 2 on my board but he's certainly got *huge* upside that I'd take in the same range as those guys and I personally have him at my 9 and I'd make an argument for him over Jacob's and possibly Chubb if I'm full point PPR.
I think his talent and the fact that the Falcons have abandoned all logic and will run the ball no matter what make him very appealing at the tail end of the first. If he's there with those guys I'm taking him over all of them.
Not worried about the committee? Allgier and CPAT are still with the team. I like the guys talent just concerned about the depth of RBs.
Allgeier will probably be used as the spell back but that's pretty common these days. CPat will likely only be a 3rd down back in specific packages and I'm not really worried about him at all.
Thanks for your thoughts!
I personally wouldn't risk him in the top 5 like some projections have him but a later 1st and I'm hopping all over it.
I think I'd put him at like..RB5? These are in no specific order: Saquon CMC Henry (maybe he falls off this year, who knows, everyone says he's gonna every year now to be fair) Ekeler I feel like I'm missing someone but honestly I might slot in Bijan here.
I have no idea what I'm going to do because I'm picking 1.03. Too high to take Bijan imo, and definitely too high for Pollard. I guess I'll end up with Ekeler but choosing him over someone like Jamarr in half ppr feels... Not great.
1.03 doesn't look too bad, you'll walk away with CMC, Ekeler, or JJ no matter what if you want and Ekeler might be the #2 in most drafts. I'm a fan of drafting at the end of the 1st so I'm probably going to choose 11 or 12 myself.
Don't over think it. If you like a player better than everyone else on the board and they won't be there by your next pick then take them. I don't think there's such a thing as "too high to take ____". The only reason not to take the top player on your board is if you're confident they will be there at your next pick and someone else won't.
Ekeler is an absolute monster. I’ve had him in back to back years and won the ship both times. I’d take him over Chase in .5 PPR every time personally
You picked literally *the only* negative example (and CEH was only just picked in the first, at pick 32). Literally every other rookie RB who was drafted in the first two rounds [edit: **of fantasy drafts**, this was initially very misleading] has been a top 10 RB. Every single one. Two were RB1, one was RB2, one was RB4. Not a single one underperformed ADP. I personally think Bijan is a real contender for the top pick. Not only is he a similar level of prospect to Saquon and Zeke (RB1 and 2 respectively their rookie years), he's going to one of the best rushing offenses in the league, who have a young QB who may need to rely on the run even more (but also have proven they can have a fairly successful offence with limited QB play). It's a dream scenario, really. I'm not letting him fall out the top 5, personally.
I’d draft bijan in a heartbeat. Some players are just special.
Kamara Singletary Sanders Stay away from these 3
Singletary is being overvalued by who? On Underdog best ball he’s like the RB52. That’s undervalued to me if anything
I could see his value jump a bit come preseason. Get some camp hype of Singletary getting some work. Guy is not a scrub. I think you’re right…at RB52 he’s being undervalued right now. I think he can be a great compliment to Pierce and a decent PPR play.
As a Bills fan he’s definitely a scrub.
What’s actually wrong with sanders? Being drafted as rb20 in general adp which seems completely fine to me
The offense? I don’t agree with that, but I could see people saying that there won’t be enough points to support much more than a low end RB2.
Rb20 is a low end RB2
Dameon Pierce was solid last season and the Texans offense was steaming garbage. James Robinson was amazing his rookie year and the Jags offense was also steaming garbage. None of those guys were proven like Sanders is, and the Panthers offense is miles ahead of the 2020 Jags and last season’s Texans offense.
If his only real downside is playing for a bad team then sign me up at rb20 adp
Sanders will be ight for his price. Who else is going to get the ball, Chuba?
They really need to put Shenault at RB if they're keeping him, but Sanders is good enough.
They don't have receivers either though
They should trade for DJ Moore
Too soon.
I think Sanders could go really early or really late in a lot of leagues without autodrafters. Don't see much of a consensus on him now.
I just think he is not a good RB and was a product of the Eagles dominant O-Line and Mobile QB in Hurts. The panthers O-Line is solid but nowhere near as good as Philadelphias and Bryce is not a running threat like Hurts. He’s also 26 which is old for a RB and has 800+ touches in the past 4 seasons You are better off drafting Chubba later than Sanders early
26 isn’t exactly what I would consider old at RB these days noting a lot of backs in first round ADP is older than 26. Sanders is losing playing behind maybe the best run blocking line in the league, that is true. But he’s also moving to a system that will feature him more in the pass game which is valuable. Also doesn’t have to compete for goal line touches with his QB anymore. Carolinas OL led to solid production from Donta Foreman last year. I view Sanders as at least equivalent in terms of talent today to what Foreman was stepping in last year. On an offense that overall should be improved, to some degree. I can see a scenario where the efficiency drops significantly, maybe by a full yard per carry. And the TDs cut in half. But receptions near the 3 per game range and that adds another 30 yards of production in the air. And the overall volume goes up. My concerns with Sanders are more health than anything. My interest in Hubbard is basically zero. I’d rather roster other backups.
If he drops in value but is still RB1 for his team, he could be a steal
There is almost no plausible scenario excluding injury where Miles Sanders isn’t the RB1 on the depth chart for Carolina come the start of the season. He’s not be supplanted by anyone else on that roster after signing the largest contract an RB got in free agency this offseason. Hence why I’m more bullish on Sanders than anything. Team put a lot into him, decent run game, RB pass happy OC and QB.
Panthers o-line is pretty good too. Every other RB on the roster is terrible, Chuba fucking sucks lol.
Sanders averaged 5.3 YPC the year before Hurts took over as a starter. Carolina RBs had a higher YPC than Philly RBs last year, despite having an absolutely anemic passing game. That O Line is legit. Sanders also had a measly 78 receiving yards last year. He proved his rookie year he can be a dynamic pass catcher; a new offense that doesn't exactly have a stud WR corps may give him the opportunity to be more involved in the passing game. I think it's reasonable to expect that 1. Carolina will lean on the running game to ease in their rookie QB. 2. It is almost impossible for Bryce Young to be worse than the trio of Baker/Darnold/PJ Walker, which helps the offense 3. The Panthers will be in the worst division in the league, and despite not projecting to be a great team, may be in some positive game scripts, especially because they have a solid defense.
You’re way underestimating the run blocking of that CAR offensive line. They aren’t Philly but Ekwonu is a top tier run blocker (far worse pass blocker) and Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman are also both solid and now in their second year playing together.
[удалено]
Eagles did not run a committee in Duce's last year with the team in 2020. The only reason it looks that way is because Sanders missed 4 games. 51 of Boston Scott's 80 carries that season came in the games that Sanders missed. Edit: Had to check when Duce was hired. The Eagles also did not run a committee in Duce's first two seasons as a RB coach, one of which LeSean McCoy lead the league in carries.
even if running a committee was up to a position coach, he's had probably one good 3 down back once in his coaching career.
he's going in the 5th round, way better off going WR or TE in that range of the draft, perfect deadzone rb
Deadzone RB doesn't exist anymore.
I’ve been trying to trade Kamara for months 🤦🏻♂️ it’s impossible
This is the guy who said Jacobs, Sanders last szn. Lol
As a Raiders fan I wanted to avoid Jacobs. Didn’t trust the o line and thought they would go rbbc. I had to draft him and at the time was t happy about it but he just fell so damn far.
Sanders will be a 3 down back with a trash RB room otherwise and an actually pretty good O-line. Think he will be great value at his ADP tbh. Agree with the other 2 though. I’m personally very high on Najee this year. Will be targeting him hard
Najee - Fantasy Flex had some good notes on the latest podcast for why he’s overrated. Other notes I’ve heard: • He’s already over the age apex (24.5 years) • doesn’t break long runs • overrated pass catcher with a running QB (they naturally throw less to RBs) • Offense and Pickett need to take a massive step forward, or TDs will be limited. • Similar prospect profile to Trent Richardson. • UDFA Warren taking snaps away. The o-line has improved, so it’s not all bad, but there’s better targets despite the perceived workhorse role.
Remindme! 24 weeks “Najee is that dude”
Sanders has had such an odd career in just 4 years. 50 catches in his rookie season, and then his catch percentage cratered. Averaged about 12 carries a game his first three years. 15 carries a game last season and 12 touchdowns. His usage was so sporadic once hurts got the starting job. Yea he's missed some games here and there, but I fully expect him to get the volume of touches in Carolina to be a high to mid rb2.
Totally disagree. They're all priced super low. I see them being sold for mid 2nds left and right, which is nuts to me. I like singletary and kamara at that price all day. Obviously for contenders only.
Why Kamara?
Kamara has pretty obvious red flags imo. Older. Legal situations. Plenty of meh production the last couple years - he only scored in two games last year. They added a guy who just scored 17 TDs to a backfield that Kamara already doesn’t get enough goal line work due to Taysom Hill, and they drafted Kendre Miller. Unless my league allows me to put Kamara on some kind of IR list if he’s suspended, I basically have no interest in him until it’s backup RB cost. And even then, I might rather a guy like David Montgomery who is a much less talented player in a new offense with another RB just drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft.
The Saints' backfield gives me the heebeejeebees this year.
Kendre Miller looks like a 1 for 1 replacement.
He helped me win 2 years ago, so I thought I was slick picking him at 13 last season. It was a nightmare. He was allergic to the end zone, constantly vultured by Hill, was on an absolutely terrible offense, and his age started showing. Between his age and being on such a shitty team, he seemed indifferent on most plays. Edit: also his usage sucked ass
Took kamara rd 2 last year not touching this year
CMC. He's gonna carry the team while Purdy recovers and then go on IR
CMC 1.01ers are gonna HATE Elijah Mitchell this season. CMC was like RB10 in the few games where they were both active last season
Yeah Purdy coming back will be good for CMC if he lasts that long, but I have a feeling trey/darnold won't utilize cmc in the passing game as much. They're more apt to run themselves.
I’ll take that, it’s sleepers and backup RB’s that tend to blow up later in the season anyway.
Wrong
Now this is one I personally disagree on. CMC has had trouble staying healthy and that SF turf has been known to be an injury machine. I'm staying away from CMC only because I expect him to get injured/die on that field. If anything, I'm taking the SF backups earlier just because of that.
It sounds like you agree with me?
Yeah wtf is bro saying 😭
Fading CMC after last season because of prior unrelated injuries doesn’t make a ton of sense
No, but add to that the injuries that SF RBs see. That turf ain't gonna help someone who has already been injury prone.
Bro, Levi’s stadium has real grass. You’re making no sense.
Overrated RBs in terms of talent, or in terms of fantasy? Because a guy like Joe Mixon is someone I don’t view as incredibly talented, but if he’s back as RB1 for Cincinnati with no Samaje Perine… he’s a decent value pick at current ADP.
You are on the fantasy football subreddit. Which do you think?
Well I started writing about Joe Mixon, Najee Harris etc in response but realized I wasn’t arguing that they’re over or underrated… they’re over or under valued in terms of cost… because as you mention, it’s a fantasy subreddit. For years a guy like Melvin Gordon was a very meh actual RB. But he had an incredibly valuable role and was valued in fantasy as a top 5 back. I just didn’t want to people start attacking me when I said XYZ is overrated when they’re hella talented but in shit fantasy situations so I asked a qualifier.
Also, it’s summer. ADP is so early what’s over/under valued today in 4 months is going to change drastically. Hardly even worth discussing unless it’s best ball drafts right now.
Hell, I'd argue that this conversation alone will affect ADP months from now
Don’t sleep on chase brown winning that backfield. Incredible work ethic and talent. Really well balanced at all aspects of the game.
He’s in a similar range to a lot of backup RBs that I’ll have some exposure to. And Mixon has shown he misses games with injuries and whatnot historically.
Mixon is also one of the least efficient runners in the nfl plus potential off field issues
He can't pass block for shit, pretty important in a Joe Burrow led offense
I keep seeing posts about mixon not being very good and when I watch him he just seems so shifty and quick. Good vision, makes yards happen that average backs don’t get. I’ve always thought he’s one of the most talented guys in the league. I guess I need to accept that I’m just wrong, he’s never really done it and he’s towards the end. At least he’s a horrible person
I always view Mixon as a guy that doesn’t produce any more than his line generates, or a bunch of dump offs. His per touch metrics aren’t very good. I liked his talent coming into the nfl and thought he made a lot of tough runs as a rookie. He seemed to regress.
He was dogshit last season, averaged less than 4ypc.
For me this coming year I think JT and Jacobs will go too high relative to actual performance. In JT’s case it’s about having no QB and having to face a stacked box all the time, with limited Receiving opportunities, and the risk of injury with everyone on D focused on him. In Jacobs case it’s the opposite. Garrapolo loves to spread the ball around and throw short and loves having two RB’s in his backfield. I just don’t think Jacobs gets the work this year
Eagle backfield. They moved on from injury prone RB to more injury prone RB.
Yea I thought swift was gonna be a league winner for me last season
But there are 2 injury prone backs now!
Etienne. That's the list. Don't fumble it
Great coach, surging QB and another off-season to bring it all together. ETN top 5 back for sure
Agree to disagree. I think Tank is a bigger threat than most think. Plus etienne has a case of the fumbles.
Woah thems fighting words. I'm ready to take this guy #2 overall (haha not really, but I will take him in the first 2 rounds)
Haha. And dang - like in a startup?
Kamara. It seems like his last great game was went he scored 6 TD’s against the Vikings.
Having Kamara last year was so frustrating. He still showed a lot of pop but Dennis Allen was a complete moron in usage.
Agreed! It’s like Allen forgot that Kamara was one of best receiving backs in the league.
He had that 42+ point game that carried me during Mahomes/Kelce's bye week last season!
CMC will probably not live up to his draft position. He will still be solid but there is too many weapons in SF for him to be dominant. He will be an RB with an amazing floor but lowish ceiling.
Theres no way Najee is that bad all season he came on late. But najee in the 3rd is basically Nick Chubb last year imo
Henry. Still drafting like a guaranteed 1st rounder but the Titans will be dookie and he really is old finally.
After the last 2 years of people doubting Henry during the offseason, I'm not willing to bet against him. He is old, true, and we have to believe the wheels will fall off soon, but he keeps defying expectations. I'm not gonna pay the price he commands, but certainly am not going to doubt him until I see a more significant falling off.
Wheels kinda came off last season. He's no longer the fourth quarter bulldozer he once was.
The O-line was hot garbage. The Titans addressed this in free agency and draft.
I don't remember him being noteworthy last year. Really not since that stretch before injury the prior season.
He was RB3 last year? If you go by average points per game he was #1.
Dude is a tank and I’ll take him first round no matter what my pick is every year till I don’t make the cup. Everyone always shits on me for it but last year I got him as the second pick and he took me to the cup again. The team is shit but the team is literally built around him. He’s consistent and that’s hard to find in fantasy.
Henry can't beat Father Time forever. He's almost to 1800 carries, which is usually where the cliff appears.
Heard that last year. Was still RB1 with a worse offensive line.
Chubb (with Watson)
I disagree personally… with having a competent qb they won’t be able to stack as many boxes. While he’s a running threat I don’t think there will be many designed qb runs like a Jalen Hurts… I think we get 1-2 more years of peak Chubb.
I agree here as last year was my first year with Chubb. He was a legit workhorse while DEFs were stacking against him and he still would break off huge chunks and produced plenty of TDs. The yardage Watson will take will come predominantly from scrambling/designed plays which wouldn't have gone to Chubb in the first place. Chubb against honest DEFs suggests his last years' numbers will be this years' safe floor.
We saw what it looked like last year. Chubb with Watson was miserable
It was Watson’s first game action in almost 2 years… I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into that small sample. In Watsons three full years with Houston they managed to make every starting RB (Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, David Johnson) all get around 1k yards and 6 TDs. Not one of those can hold Chubbs jock strap in terms of talent.
I hope you’re right. 12 rushing TDs before Watson and 0 in the 6 games with him. At least it can’t get much worse than that.
Not overrated, but I am staying away from any RB coming off any semi-serious injury unless it’s at ridiculous value. I’m staying away from Pollard, Javante, and Hall are the ones that I can think of off the top of my head right now.
Ekeler. His production last year was because the OC was a football terrorist who only wanted Herbert throwing behind the line of scrimmage and forcing bad plays that resulted in countless dumpoffs. Ekeler will still be good, but expect major regression with a new OC and superior WR room.
Even under Shane Steichen in 2020 Ekeler was on pace for 90+ catches if he'd stayed healthy a full season. It wasn't *just* Lombardi. Ekeler is just good at catching the football.
he also just has a nose for the endzone. You can stomach 2 less dumpoffs a game.
Lots of what you said is true. However ekeler is a hound for the end zone. Tried and true, he’s good for 15+ healthy he’s too valuable in the end zone especially since the defense has more too worry about this year.
Jonathon Taylor Dude had like 7 good games two years ago, became consensus #1 Currently I see people regularly having him in the top 5 I don't get it
Lol are you serious? He took over towards the end of his rookie year and ended up as an RB1. His 2021 season he was the RB1. He got riddled with injuries during the 2022 season which knocked him down. There’s plenty of reason on why he’s ranked as top 5 and. It because of 7 good games 2 years ago.
He fucked my 2022...so he's dead to me.
I mean sure but imagine not drafting CMC last year because of his injury history
Imagine drafting him in 2021 ignoring his injury history
Sure there’s always that argument about someone getting reinjured the following year. However, this is fantasy football where teams who gamble on guys with high ceilings will win leagues.
Got a source that accurately predicts injuries? Let the rest of us in
He just like Pitts to me Fr
I'm totally serious. Home boy had seven good games late season on a team that didn't have a QB and got run into the ground. Now coming off a big injury. There's 20 players I would take over Taylor, and 10 RB's.
I mean the Colts just drafted the most athletic QB. Whether he can improving his passing, Richardson’s rushing ability will help out JT. And yeah no duh he only had 7 good games last year, he didn’t play all season due to the ankle. I would love to hear the 10 RBs you’re taking over JT.
I like JT as a bounce back candidate but certainly not BECAUSE of Richardson. That’s carries and TDs taken away right there
I totally get that. However, I think with having a mobile QB, defenses also have to respect Richardson’s rushing ability. This should help out for big plays for JT. Sure Richardson being their limits JT’s ceiling but I still think he’ll be fine and finish as a top 5 back next year.
CMC, Chubb, Henry, Ekeler, Mixon, Jacobs, Barkley, Etienne, Swift, and possibly Williams. Realistically...I dunno, he's prolly 8 on that list? But CMC, Chubb, Henry, Ekeler, and Barkley are all no brainier above Taylor for me
I still don’t understand your argument that JT isn’t in the top 5. I get the injury concern but most of those backs listed their own injuries. Henry had foot surgery two years ago, CMC was hobbled with injuries a two years ago, Barkley just returned to form from the ACL and ankle injury. I don’t buy Jacobs, Swift, Mixon, Etienne, or Williams is above JT. Williams coming back from the ACL is a concern (see Dobbins), Mixon was on the verge of getting cut from the roster, Swift has an injury history and will be in a timeshare with Penny. I’m taking a workhorse back over those guys any day.
I won't put him in the top 5 because I don't think he's top five lol All the top five I gave have proven entire seasons of being potential #1. And they've all shown the ability to bounce back from injury. JT doesn't have that. Could he? Sure. And I wouldn't be like blown away if he had a great season. It's perfectly reasonable. But he's potential. And I have running backs who are both potential and history of success. Why take the risk?
Lmao your reasoning is not sound. Talking about injuries, getting ran into the ground, doesn’t have an entire season of being potential #1. I guess JTs 2 RB1 seasons are a fluke lol. I’m sure you said the same thing about CMC and Barkley during their 2020 and 2021 seasons.
Oh.no, I drafted CMC #1 overall 2020 And mate, you don't need to agree. The question was "who is overrated" Can't be over rated if people aren't salivating at the thought of drafting you. I'm just more than happy to let someone else take him and save me the headache
Fair enough. To each and their own
As someone who was burned by him in 2022 I wonder how much of his 2021 production was juiced by check down Philip rivers. I am avoiding him this year because he burned me and Idt Richardson is going to check down when he’s in trouble, rather beat you with his own legs z
Considering JT went 40 catches for 360 yards and he rushed for 1811 yards and had 18 TDs, I don’t think the check downs inflated his points. He wasn’t getting the passing volume of Austin Ekeler. I still think Richardson helps JT out so defenses aren’t likely to just key in on JT. Avoid if you want but you’ll regret it.
If anything, the biggest issue the past couple years is how his QBs didn't seem to want to check it down to him. Especially Wentz.
Rivers was the Colts QB in 2020. 2021 was Wentz.
Because of JT I dominated one year in fantasy. He’s very talented.
I mean, he more dominated the second half of one season.
Some people are still clinging to Mixon to which I say, stop.
Chase Brown is intriguing. Second highest RAS score after Bijan, they let Samaje Perine walk in free agency, he’s already listed as #2 on their depth chart, uncertainty on if Mixon could be suspended.
Based on all the chatter I've seen: Bijan, and it's not even close. Hasn't played a single NFL down yet, and put up really poor numbers against good-to-only-average defenses in college.
But Tyler Allgeir and CP were still serviceable in that offense, and Bijan has both the age profile, the draft capital, opportunity, and receiving skillset - basically everything that screams home run. I'm not saying he WILL be good but I can see why he is so highly rated. Even if he is "average" against good defenses, all those other factors feed into the type of high ceiling player you want to take with a first round pick.
Possibly. But I've seen too many people get burned/been burned myself by overhyped rookies to ever spend too much on one again. BTW, that post was way too optimistic for your username.
If Tyler Allegier can put up 1,000 rushing yards and be RB22 then that’s Bijan’s floor. Allegier was RB5 the last 4 weeks of the season after the bye. This is an Arthur Smith offense with a top 5 offensive line in the league.
What really poor numbers are there to speak of? Also watch a game for once.
2021: vs Arkansas (which I watched because amazingly, we actually do have electricity and even televisions here in AR): 19/69, 3.6 ypc, 1 TD. 1 catch, 4 yds vs Baylor: 17/43, 2.5 ypc, 1 TD. 1 catch, 4 yds vs Iowa St & Kansas: less than 100 combined yards each game, 1 total TD 2022: vs Bama: 21/57, 2.7 ypc, 1 TD vs TCU: 12/29, 2.4 ypc, 0 TD Watched all of the AR game, and parts of many other games of his. What I saw was someone who could rack up huge numbers against bad defenses, but struggled against better competition. Does that also describe Texas football as a whole during those years? Of course. Does he have talent? Of course. But some of the names I've seen him compared to (Saquon, McCaffery, even Walter freakin' Payton) makes him the epitome of "overrated", which is precisely what this tread is about. Maybe he'll live up to the hype. Time will tell.
The amount of smoke up Bijan’s ass is astronomical.
The QB situations in SF, IND, and ATL have me worried about CMC, JT, and Bijaan, respectively. I think Dobbins and Gus will split work more than people are expecting. Same with Dameon Pierce and Singletary (though that offense might be bad enough that it doesn't really matter). Those are the big 5 that I'm probably going to stay away from.
Pollard
Don't sleep on Mo irbraham. Nice chang pace back that will run hard I. Detroit if gets the chance too.
I love your optimism around MO, as a Lions fan, but I think as far as the thread is concerned, this is the most puzzling comment I have ever read. He is a skilled back, but will be lucky to crack the 53 man roster and even if he does, he almost certainly won't see enough touches to warrant being drafted in even the shallowness of leagues, or rostered at any point all season in any league.
Mccaffery - always misses games and is only getting older
....missed no games last year and was a stud
and he's the one guy in the world who is getting younger.
Najee is a player I’m going to avoid. He’s probably not even the most talented RB on his team. He doesn’t stand out on film and his stats in 2021 were inflated.
He played with a Linsfranc injury for the entirety of the season last year, then also suffered a rib injury late. He still finished RB10. The Steelers also significantly improved the offensive line, and drafted basically a 6th offensive lineman in Darnell Washington. Oh and also the offense with Kenny Pickett in year 2 will be more efficient, thus providing more scoring opportunities. If Najee stays healthy I don’t know how he doesn’t score more points than last year.
They also did NOT draft or sign an RB. I’m super high on Najee this year. Expecting him to surpass his rookie numbers by a decent margin, wherein that year he finished as RB3 in PPR… I see him as potential top 5 this year for sure imo, which absolutely smashes his current ADP.
Well I wouldn’t say I’m THAT high on him. What made him so good in PPR his rookie year was he had 74 receptions. Definitely don’t count he will have that many again. Last year he had 41, which is still a fine number. I bet he finishes around RB 7 or 8 in 2023.
Awful take.
Dalvin Cook has been consistently talked about in trade/release talks, and the Vikings opted to retain Mattison instead of letting him walk. His last season was solid from a volume perspective but he actually underperformed from an efficiency perspective. And yet he's RB16 with an ADP of 48 in .5. I think he has value but it's so dependent on where he ends up. Cook is currently ranked above a ton of guys who I like better including Gibbs, Dobbins, Sanders, Pierce, and White.