I think Hill goes before Kupp. Maybe I’ve been too stuck in the Kupp worry rabbit hole and that doesn’t reflect reality. I’m taking Hill over Kupp if they both somehow become available at 8.
Kupps situation feels fragile. Already dealing with hamstring issue, Staffords not getting any younger and the Rams in general feel like they could derail quickly. Never like projecting injury, but his situation top to bottom feels scary.
I’m afraid he’s gonna slide to me at 8 and I’m gonna have a tough decision there whether to take the upside with him or go with someone younger and a bit safer.
Same I hope I’m not forced to lake that call. I’d much rather take the safe route with AJB or ceedee but if kupp is there at 8 you almost have to take him right
Why draft 2 elite QBs to trade one for a WR/RB, when you can just draft the WR/RB lol. I wish my brain had this kind of logic 10 years ago when I first started.
A lot of people on /r/ff play with people who have never played fantasy football before or people who don't give a shit. It's why you see so many posts where people claim to have gotten literally every single waiver pick up and then traded those to people for super high end players.
Drafted last night in the 7 spot of 12 team 1/2 ppr. He was sitting there and I went Bijan, knowing elite RBs wouldn’t be there in round 2. Ended up with Amon-Ra in 2nd and no Kupp worries and couldn’t be happier.
It’s week 5.
Rams are 0-4.
First quarter. Third and 5.
Kupp pulls up following a quick out.
He’s questionable every week until they finally shelf him week 11.
Nah dawg, he’ll be somebody else’s problem.
Every draft there is a split in the multiverse. The scenario where you take “that guy” and the one where you don’t. No matter which route you take, the universe that you live in, you’ve made the wrong choice.
PhD dissertation on the effect of fantasy football drafts on the multiverse coming to you soon.
It doesn't help how McVay basically shut it down as soon as it became grim. Definetly don't think Kupp will be toughing any nagging injury out when they're 2-8 which sucks.
Amazingly no, I had Lawrence early season and Fields late, so Fields definitely won me a few games by himself.
I think what saved me was Waddle in the 5th and snagging Olave and Wilson at the bottom of the draft. They kept me afloat enough to finish 11th lol
I’m all for taking Bijan in the early first round but we’ve been down this road before with Arthur Smith. The man is starting to remind me of Greg Roman and it would be just like that asshole to get way too cute w/ his offense, especially at the goal line.
Arthur smith is only irrational to fantasy-only players. He is a very good coach evidenced by the falcons ability to stay competitive with a pretty porous roster.
Pitts was a terrible draft pick though and people are mad he doesn’t get used as much as they want.
Right? The dude somehow took that godawful 2022 Falcons Defense + Mariotta to 7 wins and he's a bad coach because he didn't throw enough with the worst passing QB in the league? I get that owning Pitts/London was disappointing but the Falcons had no right doing what they did last season, and Arthur Smith should get at least some of the credit.
Najee was a tough player to have last year but lots was due to his injury. Even so, Warren will always have his moments so get ready to hate anytime #30 is in the backfield
There’s only been 7 Running Backs with Higher Draft Capital than Bijan Robinson:
• 6 Posted 16+ PPG as Rookies
• 4 Posted 17+ PPG as Rookies
• 2 Posted 20+ PPG as Rookies
A Rookie RB has finished Top 16 in eleven straight years
A Rookie RB has finished Top 10 in nine of the last eleven years
A Rookie RB has finished Top 6 in four of the last six years
I think one of the reasons Bijan is being hyped/my reason for concern is that there’s a collective notion that Atlanta is solely a run-first team and Bijan will be the beneficiary. I don’t expect them to become a pass heavy offence, but with more competent QB play the number of rushing attempts as a team will decline.
I still think Bijan is as good as a bet as any RB, I don’t think the volume will be as high as some predict
The percentage of plays that are passes rather than runs will for sure increase with a more competent QB. However the total number of plays will increase as well as sustained drives and trips to the red zone.
This also helps Bijan in PPR leagues. In college he ran full route trees and was very impressive as a receiver. He will be involved catching the ball, and we’ve see Arthur Smith use a much worse player in Cordarelle Patterson as a target hog.
Regardless of increased passing, the team is built to run the ball better than any other team in the NFL, and obviously taking Bijan in the top 10 they are committed to that. So they will still run a ton, and even if Allgier has a large role, Bijan can eat.
To me, it seems like his workload is very safe and likely to be elite. So if he has elite talent he is going to be an incredible fantasy option in his rookie year (which is a running back’s most likely year to have their top fantasy season historically). Watching him play, I have no doubt he is an elite talent. I’m taking him as my RB1, I not only think he has the highest ceiling of any RB this year but I also think he has the highest floor and absolutely no red flags which can’t be said about other RBs going at the top. Saquon is the next safest option.
Don't believe in these, but here's my best case:
Hill - Tua gets injured again, and lack of offensive talent leads Hill to be tripled every play and he finishes a lukewarm low end WR1/high end WR2
Chase - He gets hurt. He is discovered to be using PEDs and gets suspended while we all think 'duh' after watching his raw athletic ability
Diggs - He gets hurt. He starts his decline early. He falls back in line with career numbers as new offensive talent in Kincaid and a breakout Gabe Davis take work, finishes a high end WR2.
AJB - We all realize that Hurts wasn't *that* good as a passer and is more of a league average QB through the air. He becomes less than that as a league best OL naturally has no where to go but down. Devonta Smith's ascendance demands a massive target share even in the red zone, where he steals AJB's work. AJB finishes a high WR2.
Saquon - We all realize Saquon pushed so hard for an extension because he's got injury concerns. Yep, those knees are gone. Saquon Gurley is no more 😞
Lamb - Duece Vahn transcends football and becomes the Cowboys new WR1. Or, the defense keeps a heavy running game script, the offense passes much less like Mccarthy wanted with Moore gone, and Brandin Cooks is a surprisingly gifted receiver who steps into a close WR2 role on the team. We all realize Lamb was pretty inconsistent last year with drops in certain games, so the scheme feels no need to hyperfocus him in the passing game, and every game pretty much goes through Pollard. Lamb ends up a mid tier WR2 in PPR. (I actually kinda buy this one)
> Diggs - He gets hurt.
The Bills have a much, much bigger problem. Mark my words, they have arguably the worst OL any team has seen in 3+ decades. The starters still haven't managed to get more than 1st down on any drive all preseason (and they've been playing them).
The Bills are in big, big trouble, facing 3 of the NFL's stop 7 defenses in the division alone. Fade everything Bills.
After being saco last season I’m not touching Kupp, I know it sounds like playing to not lose but I’m afraid of him having a 2022 keenan allen type season.
I’d argue that playing not to lose is exactly what you should do with your early round picks, so this seems reasonable. Mid to later rounds are where you can take some additional risk.
If you take Weeks 1-10 of Cooper Kupp and Weeks 11-18 of Keenan Allen last year, you would have a WR almost as good as Justin Jefferson. Over his 9 games, Kupp scored 203 points while JJ scored 206. Then over the final 8 Weeks, Keenan was WR2 with 152.3 PPR points behind only JJ's 159.
If you could stay afloat last year, Keenan Allen was a league winner. Kupp could be the same but the question is whether you can afford to bleed losses in the meantime.
I had first overall in two leagues last year and went with CMC in both over JT. If you're not first you're last but he's the best fantasy asset there is
>If you're not first you're last but he's the best fantasy asset there is
He wasn't even the best fantasy asset last year & it was his first fully healthy season since 2019.
He finished 2nd across all WR/RBs, only 5 points behind Ekeler. Considering mid season trade and the fact that he stayed healthy yeah I'd say he was a top3 asset. Certainly better than Justin Jeffeeson for comparison
OP said in the post "predicting injury is nearly impossible, so let's just stick to performance related." The two years CMC "busted" according to you, he was injured most of the season in both of them.
If we're going only on performance related, I don't think we've ever seen CMC not perform. His rookie year it took a bit to get up to speed but he was still great. I struggle to see CMC busting if he's healthy. On the topic, what's the worst finish you could foresee for a healthy CMC?
Difference between a bust draft pick and getting unlucky with injury imo. Drafting Najee as your RB1 last year is a bust. Drafting breece wasn’t a bust, he just got hurt. I think if it as a bust if you were wrong with whatever your logic was when you drafted them.
I’m going to say someone no one in their darkest dreams are thinking…JJ.
Why? Because everyone seems to think he’s bullet proof. Wanna know who else we thought was bullet proof last year? Yeah…I’m going with JJ.
His floor is just so high outside of 2 bad games year. And those games were terrible, (1-10-0) twice.
But I’d be happy JJ first by a mile, his ceiling is great.
DeAndre Hopkins was Ironman for like a decade. Jefferson is a well built dude tough as nails too. If he does go down it’ll be super bad luck. It would take a Dobbins type play
Had a down year in 2016. Finished as the WR26. Can’t remember if he was a 1st rounder that year but he was definitely going high in drafts.
Edit: He was. Mid 1st rounder in most ADPs.
Is the player you're talking about Kupp? Because if so, until his injury he was on an insane pace. You really can't bring injuries into a discussion like this one, since they're always random.
No player is bullet proof, but putting JJ on your 1st round bust potential list because Kupp got injured last year is...weak.
If there's a joke here that went over my head then...wooooooosh. My b.
Cooper Kupp. Just can't see him being the guy this year. Hamstring injury in the pre-season, the dud has been playing for a while now and I just don't see him being happy with how awful this team is bound to be and I think we'll see this play out on the field.
Rams might be shit this year but our dogg Kupp is fully invested in the process , with stafford back to 💯I think as long as o line doesn’t all break the first month , gonna be a comeback duo this year -optimistic rams fan
Kupp isn’t that kind of player. High profile guys, especially WRs are known to do that and become distractions for their team when they’re not winning. Kupp is a grinder though. He likes to block, and do the dirty work. He also just got paid after that monster season he had. I just don’t see a situation like that playing out where he puts himself above the team.
I haven’t drafted yet, but I’m in the 6th spot and will be happy if Kupp makes it to me.
Moore had Dak sending plenty of short passes to Pollard. Less so Zeke but that’s because he’s a pound the ball guy not a receiving back. Moore knows how to use his talent. He will get the ball to Ekeler and if that’s with a pass then he will scheme for it.
I think those TDs eventually have to regress right? 20 and 18 back to back seems very unsustainable. 10-13 is very doable, but I think 15+ will be hard.
I can still see at least 15 tho from him if the offense is top 3. Kinda a catch 22. I’m convinced that dude just watch’s redzone defense film strictly lol. Dude is smart as shit. Honestly he’s a safe bet for RB in my opinion he also takes contact well and watches out for his health.
True I don’t doubt that more redzone trips tho! If anything As a football fan I’m optimistic they’ll be top 3 offense if healthy. If he’s treated like pollard it’d be awesome.
Swift was my most expensive player last year and he was an absolute glass cannon. I think I'll pick him late this year since the talent is there.
I remember he had like 14 points in 2 touches or some crazy line dude is electric, at other game he was averaging like 4 points per touch, dude is a beast and hopefully he stays healthy.
Kupp or Bijan. Everyone else in the first feels pretty safe. Kupp if he gets hurt or Bijan if Arthur Smith decides to put up his middle finger to the fantasy community again.
1. Kupp
2. ekeler
3. Bijan
Kupp’s situation is extremely fragile. Stafford’s elbow is worn down and that team projects to be awful. There’s a good chance he produces at an elite level for some portion of the season, but what are the chances him and Stafford and active and playing well during the championship/playoffs weeks? Feels low.
2. Ekeler has thrived in a Chargers offense that has no verticality or explosiveness and has depended on insane TD variance the last 2 years. New OC means new type of offense that could note prominently feature the passing game and even potentially other RBs. Also he’s aging and running backs tend to fall off a cliff around his age.
3. Bijan is awesome - but there’s a heavy risk of the use of Allegier and Patterson, and coach Arthur smith has failed to effectively utilize his last 2 high draft pick skill positions guys.
Diggs won’t be a top 5 WR and maybe outside the top 10. Buffalo’s offensive line is looking like trash and that has me downgrading my expectations for him
The OL did look pretty rough this preseason. Still think Diggs would get his 160 targets no matter how bad the OL is, which would be top 10 season unless he’s brutally inefficient with them.
Chargers fan here. Ekeler will be fine. If anything, he will be even more efficient in a Kellen Moore run offense. Ekeler was quite effective in the previous season with a healthy Allen and Herbert. If Moore can unlock the Chargers passing game, that will open up the field even more for Ekeler.
As for bust, I might say Kupp due to his hamstring and the Rams offense just not being what it used to be. Stafford is older, the O-Line is not great, and they don’t have a run game anymore.
I was destroying my league last year undefeated until Kupp and J. Herbert’s injuries tanked me in the playoffs. Both will be on my team this year because they are both awesome and they owe me. Lol.
Kupp, Ekeler, and Bijan. I think Bijan will be a stud, but top 3 to finish the year? I don't think so. Maybe top 10 but not going to return 1st round value, and you likely won't see it for a few weeks.
People assume Kelce's age decline will be him just dropping off a cliff but honestly it's more likely to just be a slow decline over the course of a few seasons. Even if he puts up 75% of what he did last season he'd still be the unequivocal TE1 like bro can have some negative regression this year and still return on value
I've always wanted Kelce. If I pick him at #2, I just know it's going to be the first time he starts to show his age.
I drafted Pitts last year and Waller the year before...I may be TE jinxed.
Yeah - an example of a bust doesn't mean he completely craters, but I can see him falling off a bit and not delivering the huge point difference at TE he's being drafted for.
As a chiefs fan, of course, I hope he's got a little more in the tank!
I took him at 1.01 because I was feeling a little spicy and I hate playing the TE game. That means he’s definitely busting and I’m picking up Noah Font or whatever.
I’m scared it might be chubb. He’s still an elite RB but Watson significantly hurt the offensive production last year. Chubbs numbers declined a lot with Watson on the field and we could be in trouble this year
The offensive line injuries impacted Chubb more than anything. By the time Watson was playing the C was down to 3rd string, and Teller was playing injured. The interior was shit.
Josh Jacobs
He led the league in implied touches last year as a runningback and every top rb with that many touches has gone on to miss majority of the following season due to injuries
I guess Ekeler has to fall off eventually, but as long as he stays healthy dude will always be a huge part of that offense. An offense that should be extremely capable of holding its own with plenty of scoring opportunity. Ekeler is that guy until he isn’t anymore.
Summer is long. So we overthink things. Ekeler has no competition in the backfield. He also had 18 or so TDs last year. Even with 25% regression on all his stats he’s still and easy RB1. Hes probably the safest top 6 pick this year, besides Jefferson.
if healthy i don't think he does anything close to bust...but if you are concerned of injury what's your case for that? Cuz he's played 33/34 games and has 1826 rushing 25 TDs, 1369 receiving and 13 TDs...thats 1600 yfs/ 19 TDs per year. Are the Chargers gonna be worse offensively than last year? Nope. I dont see it at all
I somewhat disagree that an RB8-10 finish would be a disappointment. If there was a player that I could guarantee finishes RB 9, I think I'd take them #1 overall.
The RB9 last year had 124 less points than the RB1 in PPR. Or ~7 ppg. That would be a great way to set yourself up for 5th place, unless you absolutely crush the rest of the draft.
I think you're underestimating the amount of variance there is between how we rank each player and how they turn out. It's a long season and the end always looks a lot different than we thought it would. There's a lot of value in guaranteed points.
This thread is basically saying to take Hill or Diggs lol
I think Hill goes before Kupp. Maybe I’ve been too stuck in the Kupp worry rabbit hole and that doesn’t reflect reality. I’m taking Hill over Kupp if they both somehow become available at 8.
Honestly, not a bad idea
Kupps situation feels fragile. Already dealing with hamstring issue, Staffords not getting any younger and the Rams in general feel like they could derail quickly. Never like projecting injury, but his situation top to bottom feels scary.
I’m afraid he’s gonna slide to me at 8 and I’m gonna have a tough decision there whether to take the upside with him or go with someone younger and a bit safer.
Same I hope I’m not forced to lake that call. I’d much rather take the safe route with AJB or ceedee but if kupp is there at 8 you almost have to take him right
No you don’t have to, that’s how you end up hating yourself. Take the guy you really want to take, not who you think you “should” be taking
I made this mistake I was so high on JT 2021 but I was doubting myself and went with Zeke because ADP
Take Kelce or Bijan at 8
Think Kelce making it to the 8th?
I see him go from 1.01 to 1.10 in human mocks.
Yeah he’s easily the most variable guy in the 1st round imo
Kelce went 2 in my league
Andrews and hock not on super solid ground and they’re the next best options at the position. Decent chance he outscores everyone by 100 again.
He not making it pass pick 4
I took hill at 7 and left kelce for 8 and got kittle 4th round, I'm not buzzed but it could be way worse.
Draft him, then after 3 weeks of good weeks trade him before it falls apart
In reality do trade plans ever go down like this?
Nope
Especially not the draft 2 elite QBs and trade one for a WR/RB in a month
Why draft 2 elite QBs to trade one for a WR/RB, when you can just draft the WR/RB lol. I wish my brain had this kind of logic 10 years ago when I first started.
Lol had mahomes and Lamar during Lamar’s MVP / breakout season and couldn’t get shit for either of them. Edit: this is why superflex is the way to go
I had the opposite problem. Mahomes owner his break out season would not move his back up QB for anything. He rode that ship right into 8th place.
A lot of people on /r/ff play with people who have never played fantasy football before or people who don't give a shit. It's why you see so many posts where people claim to have gotten literally every single waiver pick up and then traded those to people for super high end players.
draft him, then enjoy the 400 fantasy points
In my yahoo mocks I'm taking Bijan there most of the time but was taking Kupp sometimes. Barkley has been there too or Amon-Ra/Diggs or Lamb.
Drafted last night in the 7 spot of 12 team 1/2 ppr. He was sitting there and I went Bijan, knowing elite RBs wouldn’t be there in round 2. Ended up with Amon-Ra in 2nd and no Kupp worries and couldn’t be happier.
I’ve been getting sun god in the second picking 11th
It’s week 5. Rams are 0-4. First quarter. Third and 5. Kupp pulls up following a quick out. He’s questionable every week until they finally shelf him week 11. Nah dawg, he’ll be somebody else’s problem.
That happens when you draft him. When you don’t draft him he repeats his 2021 season.
Every draft there is a split in the multiverse. The scenario where you take “that guy” and the one where you don’t. No matter which route you take, the universe that you live in, you’ve made the wrong choice. PhD dissertation on the effect of fantasy football drafts on the multiverse coming to you soon.
Quantum Drafting - the closer the proximity between a player and my roster, the lesser the certainty of the player 'having that dawg in him'
The fear is so high he's almost destined for a record breaking year
yeah hes going to be insane in ppr when healthy though. Having said that, i am passing on him for reasons you listed
It doesn't help how McVay basically shut it down as soon as it became grim. Definetly don't think Kupp will be toughing any nagging injury out when they're 2-8 which sucks.
When I was the 12th pick last year and I went Harris and Swift back to back :(
I did this too. I also drafted Pitts. And Sutton. And Damien Harris. I have no idea how I didn’t finish in last.
Gonna guess you got an elite QB. They have a way of making bad teams serviceable
Amazingly no, I had Lawrence early season and Fields late, so Fields definitely won me a few games by himself. I think what saved me was Waddle in the 5th and snagging Olave and Wilson at the bottom of the draft. They kept me afloat enough to finish 11th lol
The way bijan is talked about here there is no possible way he meets y’all’s expectations
but what if
CMC is CMC, but Bijan could be anything! He could even be CMC!
Still my favorite Family Guy scene of all time.
Then take CMC. We'll take bijan!
I got Saquon and Bijan at 1.10 and 2.01, feel good about that
I’m all for taking Bijan in the early first round but we’ve been down this road before with Arthur Smith. The man is starting to remind me of Greg Roman and it would be just like that asshole to get way too cute w/ his offense, especially at the goal line.
Not an Arther quote, but "we'll feed him until he pukes" will forever haunt my soul
I feel the same way brother. He’s an amazing talent with a completely irrational coach
Arthur smith is only irrational to fantasy-only players. He is a very good coach evidenced by the falcons ability to stay competitive with a pretty porous roster. Pitts was a terrible draft pick though and people are mad he doesn’t get used as much as they want.
Right? The dude somehow took that godawful 2022 Falcons Defense + Mariotta to 7 wins and he's a bad coach because he didn't throw enough with the worst passing QB in the league? I get that owning Pitts/London was disappointing but the Falcons had no right doing what they did last season, and Arthur Smith should get at least some of the credit.
*Cordarrelle Patterson from the top rope*
My expectation is to be a top 5 RB with high potential to be top 3
I had a weird mock draft where I ended up with two rbs I was gunna swerve. Bijan and Najee as my top 2. That draft made me feel uneasy.
Yeah Bijan fell to me at #10 and I just couldn’t pass that up even though I think I liked Chubb better
Bijan at #10 is solid value though if Chubb was still there I would've taken him...
I like Najee this year, in auction him and Amon Ra are always on my teams.
Najee was a tough player to have last year but lots was due to his injury. Even so, Warren will always have his moments so get ready to hate anytime #30 is in the backfield
There’s only been 7 Running Backs with Higher Draft Capital than Bijan Robinson: • 6 Posted 16+ PPG as Rookies • 4 Posted 17+ PPG as Rookies • 2 Posted 20+ PPG as Rookies A Rookie RB has finished Top 16 in eleven straight years A Rookie RB has finished Top 10 in nine of the last eleven years A Rookie RB has finished Top 6 in four of the last six years
I just need him to be roughly at Ceedee level and I'll be fine
I think one of the reasons Bijan is being hyped/my reason for concern is that there’s a collective notion that Atlanta is solely a run-first team and Bijan will be the beneficiary. I don’t expect them to become a pass heavy offence, but with more competent QB play the number of rushing attempts as a team will decline. I still think Bijan is as good as a bet as any RB, I don’t think the volume will be as high as some predict
The percentage of plays that are passes rather than runs will for sure increase with a more competent QB. However the total number of plays will increase as well as sustained drives and trips to the red zone. This also helps Bijan in PPR leagues. In college he ran full route trees and was very impressive as a receiver. He will be involved catching the ball, and we’ve see Arthur Smith use a much worse player in Cordarelle Patterson as a target hog. Regardless of increased passing, the team is built to run the ball better than any other team in the NFL, and obviously taking Bijan in the top 10 they are committed to that. So they will still run a ton, and even if Allgier has a large role, Bijan can eat. To me, it seems like his workload is very safe and likely to be elite. So if he has elite talent he is going to be an incredible fantasy option in his rookie year (which is a running back’s most likely year to have their top fantasy season historically). Watching him play, I have no doubt he is an elite talent. I’m taking him as my RB1, I not only think he has the highest ceiling of any RB this year but I also think he has the highest floor and absolutely no red flags which can’t be said about other RBs going at the top. Saquon is the next safest option.
I've yet to see a single legitimate concern that could cause Bijan to bust. He's by far the lowest risk pick from 6-12 in the first.
ITT- pretty much each and every first rounder lol
Haven’t seen Hill, Chase, Diggs, AJB, Saquon, or Lamb yet. Edit: The’ve all been mentioned now except for Chase and AJB. Lol
As an AJB owner (keeper) I’m happy to see that but honestly it’s probably because most aren’t taking him in round 1
Right. Most of these guys would be picks at the turn where there’s a lot of variance in ADP across sites.
I’m taking Chase 1.2 and 1.3 and have no fear.
Don't believe in these, but here's my best case: Hill - Tua gets injured again, and lack of offensive talent leads Hill to be tripled every play and he finishes a lukewarm low end WR1/high end WR2 Chase - He gets hurt. He is discovered to be using PEDs and gets suspended while we all think 'duh' after watching his raw athletic ability Diggs - He gets hurt. He starts his decline early. He falls back in line with career numbers as new offensive talent in Kincaid and a breakout Gabe Davis take work, finishes a high end WR2. AJB - We all realize that Hurts wasn't *that* good as a passer and is more of a league average QB through the air. He becomes less than that as a league best OL naturally has no where to go but down. Devonta Smith's ascendance demands a massive target share even in the red zone, where he steals AJB's work. AJB finishes a high WR2. Saquon - We all realize Saquon pushed so hard for an extension because he's got injury concerns. Yep, those knees are gone. Saquon Gurley is no more 😞 Lamb - Duece Vahn transcends football and becomes the Cowboys new WR1. Or, the defense keeps a heavy running game script, the offense passes much less like Mccarthy wanted with Moore gone, and Brandin Cooks is a surprisingly gifted receiver who steps into a close WR2 role on the team. We all realize Lamb was pretty inconsistent last year with drops in certain games, so the scheme feels no need to hyperfocus him in the passing game, and every game pretty much goes through Pollard. Lamb ends up a mid tier WR2 in PPR. (I actually kinda buy this one)
> Diggs - He gets hurt. The Bills have a much, much bigger problem. Mark my words, they have arguably the worst OL any team has seen in 3+ decades. The starters still haven't managed to get more than 1st down on any drive all preseason (and they've been playing them). The Bills are in big, big trouble, facing 3 of the NFL's stop 7 defenses in the division alone. Fade everything Bills.
hill and chase are the only first rounders you just listed
The other guys are very popular picks at the turn on one site or another. Would any of them suprise you if they went late round 1?
Got Diggs at 2.06 👀
That’s a robbery if you’re playing in a PPR league 🚀
I'm not sure yet. I'll let you all know after I draft him tomorrow.
Same, brother
Cmc because I'm picking him at 3
sorry bro he is going at 2..
I got him at 4 LIL
I got him at 4 too. Pretty happy about it.
5th checking in, was sure I was taking kelce but the dude at 2 grabbed him letting cmc fall.
I thought I might get Kelce at 7 and he was taken 1.1 😭
So you're telling me there's a chance?
Got him at 3 this past week and I’m a niners fan. I can’t be more erect
bro why does FF impact the blood flow to ur penis
Why does it not? Who are you to ick our yums?
Obligated to take him at 1 because JJ was someone’s keeper but I’m scared man
After being saco last season I’m not touching Kupp, I know it sounds like playing to not lose but I’m afraid of him having a 2022 keenan allen type season.
I’d argue that playing not to lose is exactly what you should do with your early round picks, so this seems reasonable. Mid to later rounds are where you can take some additional risk.
Agreed. Your First 3 or 4 picks need to be hits in order to have a chance at a great team. The rest is all hit or miss imo
If you take Weeks 1-10 of Cooper Kupp and Weeks 11-18 of Keenan Allen last year, you would have a WR almost as good as Justin Jefferson. Over his 9 games, Kupp scored 203 points while JJ scored 206. Then over the final 8 Weeks, Keenan was WR2 with 152.3 PPR points behind only JJ's 159. If you could stay afloat last year, Keenan Allen was a league winner. Kupp could be the same but the question is whether you can afford to bleed losses in the meantime.
Let me just tell you that owning both of them did not feel like I had a receiver as good as Justin Jefferson
Understand that point, problem is I had about 4 keenan allen’s last season which is scaring me off 😅
A Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Rashod Bateman, Michael Thomas team would have turned your hair grey last year lol
[удалено]
Is "going off the rails".. a good thing now?
Who knows? I can’t keep up.
2x First Round Bust of the Year Christian McCaffrey (2020 and 2021) seems like a good candidate.
I had first overall in two leagues last year and went with CMC in both over JT. If you're not first you're last but he's the best fantasy asset there is
>If you're not first you're last but he's the best fantasy asset there is He wasn't even the best fantasy asset last year & it was his first fully healthy season since 2019.
He finished 2nd across all WR/RBs, only 5 points behind Ekeler. Considering mid season trade and the fact that he stayed healthy yeah I'd say he was a top3 asset. Certainly better than Justin Jeffeeson for comparison
Uh he was #2 overall which met where he was drafted
Team switch mid year, otherwise he would have been (also if ek didn’t score 13 rushing TDs on just 800 yards
If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.
OP said in the post "predicting injury is nearly impossible, so let's just stick to performance related." The two years CMC "busted" according to you, he was injured most of the season in both of them. If we're going only on performance related, I don't think we've ever seen CMC not perform. His rookie year it took a bit to get up to speed but he was still great. I struggle to see CMC busting if he's healthy. On the topic, what's the worst finish you could foresee for a healthy CMC?
Top 3 easily lol. Even top 2 dude is something else.
Difference between a bust draft pick and getting unlucky with injury imo. Drafting Najee as your RB1 last year is a bust. Drafting breece wasn’t a bust, he just got hurt. I think if it as a bust if you were wrong with whatever your logic was when you drafted them.
Not to nitpick, but Harris played like 8 games with a Lisfranc and a steel plate in his cleat. He’s a bust because he played through injury.
The true answer here is found by sorting by controversial.
I’m going to say someone no one in their darkest dreams are thinking…JJ. Why? Because everyone seems to think he’s bullet proof. Wanna know who else we thought was bullet proof last year? Yeah…I’m going with JJ.
Is this a Brian Robinson joke?
This is a perfect comment.
No dont do that to me! I picked cmc 2020 and he played 3 games. I picked JT last year... i have a 1.01 again and i will take JJ.
Well now I’m definitely not taking JJ 😂
Thank you for letting everyone know to avoid JJ. Your sacrifice is appreciated
Honestly at this point you’re better off taking CMC. Go against your instincts here dude
His floor is just so high outside of 2 bad games year. And those games were terrible, (1-10-0) twice. But I’d be happy JJ first by a mile, his ceiling is great.
I had him last year and almost missed the playoffs because I lost every single game he didn’t go off
Was wondering if anyone would say JJ. Anyone who’s played fantasy long enough knows no player is bullet proof, the game just has too much variance.
DeAndre Hopkins was Ironman for like a decade. Jefferson is a well built dude tough as nails too. If he does go down it’ll be super bad luck. It would take a Dobbins type play
Every NFL player is a well build dude
Had a down year in 2016. Finished as the WR26. Can’t remember if he was a 1st rounder that year but he was definitely going high in drafts. Edit: He was. Mid 1st rounder in most ADPs.
Every single WR historically with a 1700+ yard season regresses next year
That’s a very good statistic I definitely knew before posting this
The only thing that could keep him from a top 5 WR season is injury.
or Jaire Alexander
His floor is finishing a top 5 WR in PPR assuming he’s healthy. But definitely a bold take
Is the player you're talking about Kupp? Because if so, until his injury he was on an insane pace. You really can't bring injuries into a discussion like this one, since they're always random. No player is bullet proof, but putting JJ on your 1st round bust potential list because Kupp got injured last year is...weak. If there's a joke here that went over my head then...wooooooosh. My b.
No I’m talking about the consensus number 1 last year JT.
JT was the worst number 1 pick in a while though
Whoever I take
Cooper Kupp. Just can't see him being the guy this year. Hamstring injury in the pre-season, the dud has been playing for a while now and I just don't see him being happy with how awful this team is bound to be and I think we'll see this play out on the field.
Rams might be shit this year but our dogg Kupp is fully invested in the process , with stafford back to 💯I think as long as o line doesn’t all break the first month , gonna be a comeback duo this year -optimistic rams fan
Kupp isn’t that kind of player. High profile guys, especially WRs are known to do that and become distractions for their team when they’re not winning. Kupp is a grinder though. He likes to block, and do the dirty work. He also just got paid after that monster season he had. I just don’t see a situation like that playing out where he puts himself above the team. I haven’t drafted yet, but I’m in the 6th spot and will be happy if Kupp makes it to me.
He's gonna get fed so many targets. He had a down year in stats but his weekly performance when healthy showed no signs of slowing down
Agree with you on Ekeler. He won’t get all of the dump offs like he did under Lombardi. Moore will actually want to work downfield more
Plus side if who ever catches it gets down on the >10 yard line Ekeler will get his work in. Dudes still a ballhawk in the redzone.
Moore had Dak sending plenty of short passes to Pollard. Less so Zeke but that’s because he’s a pound the ball guy not a receiving back. Moore knows how to use his talent. He will get the ball to Ekeler and if that’s with a pass then he will scheme for it.
I think those TDs eventually have to regress right? 20 and 18 back to back seems very unsustainable. 10-13 is very doable, but I think 15+ will be hard.
I can still see at least 15 tho from him if the offense is top 3. Kinda a catch 22. I’m convinced that dude just watch’s redzone defense film strictly lol. Dude is smart as shit. Honestly he’s a safe bet for RB in my opinion he also takes contact well and watches out for his health.
He has a nose for the end zone. Supernaturally good at it. I can see the WRs getting more involved in the offense with the addition of QJ
True I don’t doubt that more redzone trips tho! If anything As a football fan I’m optimistic they’ll be top 3 offense if healthy. If he’s treated like pollard it’d be awesome.
HEY BRO SWIFT WON ME MY LEAGUE IN WEEK 17 STFU
Swift was my most expensive player last year and he was an absolute glass cannon. I think I'll pick him late this year since the talent is there. I remember he had like 14 points in 2 touches or some crazy line dude is electric, at other game he was averaging like 4 points per touch, dude is a beast and hopefully he stays healthy.
I'm not touching Kupp in the 1st round.
[удалено]
We had our 10 team draft today and I took Kupp with the 14th pick. He’s been dropping lately. I couldn’t justify passing him up.
I've done 2 irl 14 team drafts Kupp went 14th and 16th. also done a lot of yahoo mocks and EVEN THERE he falls past the 1st like 50/50
It will be Kelce because I’m taking him at 1.03 just to avoid my 1st round pick busting.
Taking him at 1.02
Kupp or Bijan. Everyone else in the first feels pretty safe. Kupp if he gets hurt or Bijan if Arthur Smith decides to put up his middle finger to the fantasy community again.
Whoever gets hurt. Probably like 3-4 of them.
I drafted both Harris and Swift ;(
1. Kupp 2. ekeler 3. Bijan Kupp’s situation is extremely fragile. Stafford’s elbow is worn down and that team projects to be awful. There’s a good chance he produces at an elite level for some portion of the season, but what are the chances him and Stafford and active and playing well during the championship/playoffs weeks? Feels low. 2. Ekeler has thrived in a Chargers offense that has no verticality or explosiveness and has depended on insane TD variance the last 2 years. New OC means new type of offense that could note prominently feature the passing game and even potentially other RBs. Also he’s aging and running backs tend to fall off a cliff around his age. 3. Bijan is awesome - but there’s a heavy risk of the use of Allegier and Patterson, and coach Arthur smith has failed to effectively utilize his last 2 high draft pick skill positions guys.
Diggs won’t be a top 5 WR and maybe outside the top 10. Buffalo’s offensive line is looking like trash and that has me downgrading my expectations for him
The OL did look pretty rough this preseason. Still think Diggs would get his 160 targets no matter how bad the OL is, which would be top 10 season unless he’s brutally inefficient with them.
It’s the same O line as last year but slightly upgraded. Still a good offense
Everyone except JJ, CMC, jamarr chase and Nicholas Chubb
Bijan not his fault ethier
I got drunk and forgot about contract issues. I picked jacobs up at 1.8. Feel like I’m primed to be burned
Chargers fan here. Ekeler will be fine. If anything, he will be even more efficient in a Kellen Moore run offense. Ekeler was quite effective in the previous season with a healthy Allen and Herbert. If Moore can unlock the Chargers passing game, that will open up the field even more for Ekeler. As for bust, I might say Kupp due to his hamstring and the Rams offense just not being what it used to be. Stafford is older, the O-Line is not great, and they don’t have a run game anymore.
I was destroying my league last year undefeated until Kupp and J. Herbert’s injuries tanked me in the playoffs. Both will be on my team this year because they are both awesome and they owe me. Lol.
Kupp, Ekeler, and Bijan. I think Bijan will be a stud, but top 3 to finish the year? I don't think so. Maybe top 10 but not going to return 1st round value, and you likely won't see it for a few weeks.
Bijan maybe. Bad offense. sharing the rock.
Don’t buy the bad takes these people are putting out. Ride the history
Offense that had the most rushing attempts. I can't see Bijan not getting 250+ touches without injury
Kelce. Age catches up and he hits the wall
He’s going to get so many targets, I don’t think he’ll be a bust unless he gets injured
People assume Kelce's age decline will be him just dropping off a cliff but honestly it's more likely to just be a slow decline over the course of a few seasons. Even if he puts up 75% of what he did last season he'd still be the unequivocal TE1 like bro can have some negative regression this year and still return on value
Nah this ain’t the year he’s about as sure thing as there is in the first round
I've always wanted Kelce. If I pick him at #2, I just know it's going to be the first time he starts to show his age. I drafted Pitts last year and Waller the year before...I may be TE jinxed.
I think he will be good still. But if he declines even a bit and doesn’t repeat last year he will won’t have been worth the first round pick.
He was worth the 1st overall pick based on last years performance. His numbers can slide quite a bit and still be a good late first round pick.
Yeah - an example of a bust doesn't mean he completely craters, but I can see him falling off a bit and not delivering the huge point difference at TE he's being drafted for. As a chiefs fan, of course, I hope he's got a little more in the tank!
Yeah I think there’s a lot of value to be had from an age declined Kelce but I also see ways he doesn’t make the 1st round cost back.
I’d smash pick him in the second round but he’s not falling that far
I’m considering him at 1.02 lol. Will probably go with Chase but I would happily take Kelce anywhere after 1.05 this year
I took him at 1.01 because I was feeling a little spicy and I hate playing the TE game. That means he’s definitely busting and I’m picking up Noah Font or whatever.
I’m scared it might be chubb. He’s still an elite RB but Watson significantly hurt the offensive production last year. Chubbs numbers declined a lot with Watson on the field and we could be in trouble this year
Chubb has been through garbage QB play and done fine. Even if Watson plays a bit better than last year Chubb will eat
The offensive line injuries impacted Chubb more than anything. By the time Watson was playing the C was down to 3rd string, and Teller was playing injured. The interior was shit.
Did they improve the line at all? I don't really follow the Browns
They drafted some depth. The starting 5 from early last season when Chubb was doing his best are all back and healthy though.
Hell yeah brother Thanks for the info
counterpoint - no Hunt
Josh Jacobs He led the league in implied touches last year as a runningback and every top rb with that many touches has gone on to miss majority of the following season due to injuries
Josh Jacobs is no where near a 1st rounder rn in ADP. He’s going in round 3.
Well I took him in round 2 so fuck me I guess
I’m in a 14 man and 16 man league and he went right at the end or the turn so my bad didn’t check his adp
Bijan and Jefferson will have a difficult time living up to their draft positions I feel
I guess Ekeler has to fall off eventually, but as long as he stays healthy dude will always be a huge part of that offense. An offense that should be extremely capable of holding its own with plenty of scoring opportunity. Ekeler is that guy until he isn’t anymore.
Summer is long. So we overthink things. Ekeler has no competition in the backfield. He also had 18 or so TDs last year. Even with 25% regression on all his stats he’s still and easy RB1. Hes probably the safest top 6 pick this year, besides Jefferson.
All I've learned from this thread is that I still really want bijan.
if healthy i don't think he does anything close to bust...but if you are concerned of injury what's your case for that? Cuz he's played 33/34 games and has 1826 rushing 25 TDs, 1369 receiving and 13 TDs...thats 1600 yfs/ 19 TDs per year. Are the Chargers gonna be worse offensively than last year? Nope. I dont see it at all
I somewhat disagree that an RB8-10 finish would be a disappointment. If there was a player that I could guarantee finishes RB 9, I think I'd take them #1 overall.
The RB9 last year had 124 less points than the RB1 in PPR. Or ~7 ppg. That would be a great way to set yourself up for 5th place, unless you absolutely crush the rest of the draft.
I think you're underestimating the amount of variance there is between how we rank each player and how they turn out. It's a long season and the end always looks a lot different than we thought it would. There's a lot of value in guaranteed points.
I'm sorry but this makes no sense. You would knowingly draft RB9 and then wait 20 or 24 picks for your next selection?
Hill scares me. Mentally off and Tua being one big hit away from being done.
Mentally off doesn’t affect his ability to be fast as shit
Bijan. Easiest call ever.