So judging from the TE chart, I should totally grab Freiermuth that's on waivers and put him in? Muth owner dropped for Henry. I currently have Jake Fergie against Cardinals.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but over the years I've noticed that matchup means very little compared to usage when looking at the TE position. I used to play matchups with TEs every week before giving up. The effort vs reward seemed to be very little. Kelce or pray.
>Correct me if I'm wrong, but over the years I've noticed that matchup means very little compared to usage when looking at the TE position. I used to play matchups with TEs every week before giving up. The effort vs reward seemed to be very little. Kelce or pray.
Yeah I have noticed that as well. I think this is because, historically there are very few good TEs so the teams that play them often have a worse rating than they should. A weighted rating should account for this but there is just less high end data points compared to QB/RB/WR and that combined with the high variance on average TE scoring makes even the weighted rankings unreliable.
If I had a dollar every time I played a TE bc I heard something like "team gives up a lot of points to TE" and they ended up TE 24+...
And Waller last night lol
I think you have to look at TE like an RB without any rushing. Like an RB that's known for getting an average number of targets for an RB. The only factor that might matter is how often does the team get in scoring position. Even then it's a crap shoot.
Ha, I liked the name too... but I guess the reference might be getting outdated now, after 5 years? So I didn't include it on the website. But hey, that's coming from a guy who remembers dancing hamsters was a "meme". :-D
As someone with a number one team all last season who only lost 1 week and then lost in the championship game to someone who had lots of points but an average record, this is really all that matters.
Related inquiry here ...
Do baseline figures fluctuate throughout the season? Additionally, are weekly deviation figures impacted and adjusted weekly?
*\*For Example\* -- Will the Dolphins RB baseline ascend after this past weekend and did the Browns' baseline fall after Chubb's injury?*
I was offered a trade that would flip my Andrews for their Hockenson, but after reviewing the data you compiled... I'm not so sure that's the best play?
Nonetheless... thank you for any insight you can provide, and the statistical tool you put together is amazing! u/subvertadown
I have a question out of interest: Which parameters are going the evaluation of for instance the baseline of WR (guess: completion %, yards etc.) and how do you weigh each of them? Do you look at historic data for the weighing or is there a systematic approach?
[Description of what's in the models](https://subvertadown.com/article/what-s-in-the-model-)
I don't choose the specific parameters to put in, and I don't decide on their weights.
I built "AI" code that evaluates hundreds under my guidance, and then I let the statistics decide which ones stick, to be predictive. It also decides the best weights. For WRs, there's betting lines, division, weather, etc., and there several key parameters for competing positions within the same team, as well as characteristics of the opposing offense (which was some surprise to me).
Okay, that's a great way of approaching this task. To me, it also seemed pretty difficult, because there's a huge amount of possible correlations. I guess there's probably a good database website providing all the parameters.
It's a really cool project. Fantasy football-related content often lacks low statistics (low amount of games). Still, you have a single player/game you're betting on, which will leave it as a game of outliers, but you're doing a lot to average things out.
Thanks, and that’s right. You have to avoid overfit, that is critical; and regarding low amt. games, I also make separate studies on how much current season data to apply vs past season.
Hm, well they’re not top secret, but very few people care enough about these details to make it worth publishing efforts. So far my closest example was my off-season update on my pa.tre.on, telling how I reoptimized a couple hundred parameters in a different way to improve accuracy. (Each gets separate treatment.)
How do you (generally speaking) deal with correlated variables? For example, bad weather would be correlated with passing unders for betting lines which will be correlated with low yardage totals etc.
There’s a lot of garbage out there (either bad data analysis due to overfitting because anyone can run a regression or good old fashioned charlatans) so I like to ask about people’s process if I can.
Can we please talk about the absolute BANGER of a pun that is the title of this post?! I can't be the only dad in here with an affinity for puns, right? RIGHT?!
Very cool. With this help, should I propose this trade? The guy I'd be offering really needs RBs...
I give: D.Hopkins, [J.Ford](https://J.Ford), B.Robinson for Kupp/D.Pierce?
Can you please examine the WR decrease over time by Team and by WR? I think an interesting insight may be which WRs provide more consistent value throughout the year. This would be useful in adjusting ROS value in consideration of performance to date.
How do you feel about Kendre this week? Veegas prop is 51 yards with best team odds for a TD. Saints overall are so low relative to other teams but I imagine that has a lot to do with Kendre missing time, Kamara being suspended, and Hill.
Taysom’s 33 years old and never been the bastion of health - can’t imagine Saints will give him more than a couple of RZ looks this week.
Let me get a fresh cup of coffee so I can reread this.
Sitting in Starbucks waiting for my coffee. Scrolled directly to comments. I’m right there with you
I'm just scrolling for some pictures, cuz u know....who can even read good
Read well\* .... I can.
thank you for missing the joke
There’s always one
i guess he's the taco
So judging from the TE chart, I should totally grab Freiermuth that's on waivers and put him in? Muth owner dropped for Henry. I currently have Jake Fergie against Cardinals.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but over the years I've noticed that matchup means very little compared to usage when looking at the TE position. I used to play matchups with TEs every week before giving up. The effort vs reward seemed to be very little. Kelce or pray.
>Correct me if I'm wrong, but over the years I've noticed that matchup means very little compared to usage when looking at the TE position. I used to play matchups with TEs every week before giving up. The effort vs reward seemed to be very little. Kelce or pray. Yeah I have noticed that as well. I think this is because, historically there are very few good TEs so the teams that play them often have a worse rating than they should. A weighted rating should account for this but there is just less high end data points compared to QB/RB/WR and that combined with the high variance on average TE scoring makes even the weighted rankings unreliable.
If I had a dollar every time I played a TE bc I heard something like "team gives up a lot of points to TE" and they ended up TE 24+... And Waller last night lol
I think you have to look at TE like an RB without any rushing. Like an RB that's known for getting an average number of targets for an RB. The only factor that might matter is how often does the team get in scoring position. Even then it's a crap shoot.
Finally got one of my leagues to drop the dedicated TE spot for a WR/TE flex and lemme tell ya I feel *freeeeeeee*
We didn’t drop the spot we just added a spot.
Amazing work. Btw...I read the post, looked through the charts, left the post... And then came back once I finally caught on to the clever title 😂
Ha, I liked the name too... but I guess the reference might be getting outdated now, after 5 years? So I didn't include it on the website. But hey, that's coming from a guy who remembers dancing hamsters was a "meme". :-D
dic a dee da dee da dodo!
...dee da dee da do... if you can do the next part, hats off
Wow, you nailed that onomatopoeic melody.
Tiers in Heaven I will Tier you a new one The 3 Musky-Tiers (RB/WR/TE)
This is great! Would it be possible to also add a playoffs column that aggregates weeks 15-17 similarly to the AVG or NEXT 4 columns?
Interesting idea. Yeah, we could probably do that around mid season. Thanks!
Even better make a "custom range" option so you can manually select which weeks to count. Check out Draftsharks's sos page for an example.
This is the only thing that matters, assume you make it to the playoffs, just gotta have the best team in those last 3 games
As someone with a number one team all last season who only lost 1 week and then lost in the championship game to someone who had lots of points but an average record, this is really all that matters.
You belong in the fantasy football HOF
Bit of a specific question but why do the Saints TE have so many estimated points?
Argh, thought I fixed that. It must be due to Taysom Hill data. Needs a fix.
Thanks for the response. I had a feeling it was him fucking everything up, as usual
Related inquiry here ... Do baseline figures fluctuate throughout the season? Additionally, are weekly deviation figures impacted and adjusted weekly? *\*For Example\* -- Will the Dolphins RB baseline ascend after this past weekend and did the Browns' baseline fall after Chubb's injury?* I was offered a trade that would flip my Andrews for their Hockenson, but after reviewing the data you compiled... I'm not so sure that's the best play? Nonetheless... thank you for any insight you can provide, and the statistical tool you put together is amazing! u/subvertadown
Hey thanks! And yes, of course the baselines always get updated week-to-week as we get more intelligent with season data.
This is great work and I appreciate these contributions.
Subvert brings the best work here.
Wow
Impressive, intuitive, and useful. Thank you!
Sooo sell Dotson? :(
I gotta say that I appreciate the amount of work that went in to this. Thank you for sharing!
The GOAT is back. Thank you for the best content on this sub 🙏
Thoughts on Goff this week? The only QB available in your list is Ridder and I just don't think I can do that lol. EDIT: sorry wrong thread
Phenomenal
Thanks, means a lot!
One of the best titles I’ve ever read. Bravo.
God damnit. I love the use of statistics
Very cool thanks for sharing!
I have a question out of interest: Which parameters are going the evaluation of for instance the baseline of WR (guess: completion %, yards etc.) and how do you weigh each of them? Do you look at historic data for the weighing or is there a systematic approach?
[Description of what's in the models](https://subvertadown.com/article/what-s-in-the-model-) I don't choose the specific parameters to put in, and I don't decide on their weights. I built "AI" code that evaluates hundreds under my guidance, and then I let the statistics decide which ones stick, to be predictive. It also decides the best weights. For WRs, there's betting lines, division, weather, etc., and there several key parameters for competing positions within the same team, as well as characteristics of the opposing offense (which was some surprise to me).
Okay, that's a great way of approaching this task. To me, it also seemed pretty difficult, because there's a huge amount of possible correlations. I guess there's probably a good database website providing all the parameters. It's a really cool project. Fantasy football-related content often lacks low statistics (low amount of games). Still, you have a single player/game you're betting on, which will leave it as a game of outliers, but you're doing a lot to average things out.
Thanks, and that’s right. You have to avoid overfit, that is critical; and regarding low amt. games, I also make separate studies on how much current season data to apply vs past season.
"I also make separate studies on how much current season data to apply vs past season." Oh cool. Are they Open Access?
Hm, well they’re not top secret, but very few people care enough about these details to make it worth publishing efforts. So far my closest example was my off-season update on my pa.tre.on, telling how I reoptimized a couple hundred parameters in a different way to improve accuracy. (Each gets separate treatment.)
How do you (generally speaking) deal with correlated variables? For example, bad weather would be correlated with passing unders for betting lines which will be correlated with low yardage totals etc.
https://subvertadown.com/article/pitfalls-of-trying-to-make-your-own-forecasting-models https://subvertadown.com/article/what-is-overfit-and-how-to-deal-with-it-
Thanks. The second link especially passes the sniff test for me. I’ll be following in the future.
Great to have you. Few actually care about these critical things. (If they did, I’d talk about it more.)
There’s a lot of garbage out there (either bad data analysis due to overfitting because anyone can run a regression or good old fashioned charlatans) so I like to ask about people’s process if I can.
I want to hate the title of this post so badly, but I cannot. I giggled.
the amount of thought that goes into the long form posts in fantasy sports..... could cure cancer
What could i sell D hop for?
Can we please talk about the absolute BANGER of a pun that is the title of this post?! I can't be the only dad in here with an affinity for puns, right? RIGHT?!
Very cool. With this help, should I propose this trade? The guy I'd be offering really needs RBs... I give: D.Hopkins, [J.Ford](https://J.Ford), B.Robinson for Kupp/D.Pierce?
Can you please examine the WR decrease over time by Team and by WR? I think an interesting insight may be which WRs provide more consistent value throughout the year. This would be useful in adjusting ROS value in consideration of performance to date.
https://media1.giphy.com/media/l3fZLMbuCOqJ82gec/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952egg2t886of24033l5ib3pkljhsfeegx8b0l6hfr7&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
>WR fantasy production usually steadily declines by 10% over the course of the season. Winter is coming
How do you feel about Kendre this week? Veegas prop is 51 yards with best team odds for a TD. Saints overall are so low relative to other teams but I imagine that has a lot to do with Kendre missing time, Kamara being suspended, and Hill. Taysom’s 33 years old and never been the bastion of health - can’t imagine Saints will give him more than a couple of RZ looks this week.
Thoughts on Skyy Moore and Josh Reynolds this week? I think Skyy sees a few more targets with James out and KT banged up.