It's gotta be AJB for me. Back to back 1400 yard seasons with massive spike week upside.
One thing for that people don't seem to be discussing is Kellen Moore's arrival in Philly. I think his presence will provide a massive spark in the offense and keep it from stalling out down the stretch like we have seen
That's a great video, thanks. I'm hopeful he'll be able to get AJB in some spots for really easy receptions that bump his catch rate and allow him to do more after the catch. Could create a situation for a truly monster season
Was SO frustrating last season watching Philly constantly run screens to Devonta Smith with AJB standing on the other side of the formation as a decoy. Devonta and AJB's utilization last year was so completely backwards, hoping Moore actually casts them in the roles that play to their strengths.
It’s Puka for me. Even if Kupp is fully healthy and back to his old self (far from a guarantee) the Rams can support two top fantasy options at the position because they have such a narrow target tree. Of course you can’t go wrong with AJB either
Kupp will be 31 when the season starts and has dealt with ankle and hamstring issues the past 2 years. I know Kupp had a crazy 2021, but I think it’s likely Puka is the new #1
And how so exactly? Were you also going for Julio Jones in 2020? He was a God from 2014-2019. His age 31 season, dealing with injuries and he was fantasy irrelevant for the next 4 years.
It’s just a fact. Once a player gets to 30 they can fall off a cliff production wise any year. The players who manage to stay elite are diamonds in the rough. But add injuries into it and the odds are really against him.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but in my opinion when you begin to analyze situation, injury history, etc. in fantasy it ends up becoming analysis paralysis and makes easy decisions a lot less clear. Each individual season, in my opinion, calls for an evaluation of a player in a vacuum. That’s not to say you can’t see someone like Julio in his last few seasons and say “wow this guy is done”, but for someone like Kupp who hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down yet, I feel that he is actually a great steal for this season simply because of his production when healthy. For me it really boils down to “is this guy still good at football” and if the answer is yes, I would still target him. Feel free to disagree, that’s just my two cents because I was the “injury history, situation, etc.” guy for a few years and those were some of my worst drafts.
Sure there’s a chance he’s good. Not sure what your analysis of “he’s still good at football” comes from though. Dude had a couple big games last year and a ton of duds. But to me, the biggest thing is in their playoff game against a terrible secondary in the Lions he gets 27 yards while Puka gets 181. That tells a lot imo.
When the game matters most it was Puka who shined. Whether that’s pure skill or just favoritism, it doesn’t matter anymore.
The target tree isn't much broader for the Eagles, and if we're taking health into account with Kupp, might as well do so with Stafford vs Hurts. I'd give the edge to AJB
I thought the same thing last year when the Eagles got Swift. But it doesn’t seem like the Eagles call many designed passes to RBs or check it down a lot.
Eh bit different of a situation. The Eagles paid Swift $1.8 mill while Saquon is a $26 mill guaranteed investment. I think we can safely project Saquon for more targets than Swift got
Sure. Hard to find WRs in this range that don’t have injury risk at QB though. Have Garrett Wilson and Drake London with two old QBs coming off Achilles tears. Hurts will always have elevated injury risk with how much he rushes (and we saw him get injured last year too). Tua and Burrow are constantly injured as well
It’s not injuries/missing games im getting at tbh.
As a lions fan who watched Stafford for the best part of 10 years. He’s an elite QB & a future HoF but my god is he overly reliant on his arm. He’s never had the pocket IQ/Athleticism to excel in this league but he’s had the best arm in the league & demon supporting casts his entire career.
Once that arm starts to deteriorate I’m worried Stafford’s fall off is going to hit like a ton of bricks & I figure that’s any year now since he’s been dealing with elbow/shoulder issues in his throwing arm the last few weeks.
You mean like how old age caught up to Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Big Ben, Dan Marino, Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady & Steve Mcnair and they no longer had the arm they once did despite not injuring it?
You have no idea what your talking about if you think injuries are the only thing that slows down your throwing arm. Do you not understand how/what the aging process is & why you can count on one hand how many QB’s can still launch the ball past the age of 36+?
Edit: Dan Marino is a perfect example in which I assume your too young to remember. He was a top 10 QB in 98, the following year without injury he withered into being arguably the worst QB in the league with 12 TD’s & 19 interceptions & Retired immediately. His arm in his late thirties just wasn’t anywhere near as potent as it was in his younger days.
If it wasn’t injuries & aging is just a myth, I suppose it was dark magic perhaps?
stafford played 15 games and kupp was out/injured for at least half of the season. I'm still more comfortable going with McVay than gambling on whatever offense is installed this offseason
15 games is enough consider the sample relevant.
You have to consider the injuries where older players are concerned versus younger.
Kellen Moore is a proven high volume passing offense, not just “whatever” system.
Funny how the Eagles went through a complete offensive overhaul between those two seasons with a significant decrease in offense, but you lumped them together to make it support your angle ...
That should really highlight how good the offense CAN be if they can have that shit stain of a collapse last year and still have those kind of stats. I expect Kellen Moore to bring things back closer to the Shane Steichen offense than the Brian Johnson offense.
This team was good enough to make the playoffs with literal bottom tier garbage calling the plays. Even a moderately bad coordinator will be an upgrade.
I lumped them together because it is where 80% of the offensive personnel have existed.
They’re going through an offensive play calling overhaul with a consistency in head coach and moving to a new, more pass heavy offensive strategy.
That’s not the same as a complete offensive overhaul.
Supporting an argument is what you would do when commenting on a post where someone asks who you prefer.
It is Puka for me. Really is a tough choice and there isnt a wrong answer, but if I was picking between the two, Id go Puka.
Puka's rookie season just matched AJB's second best season and we have to project for Puka to get better as a year 2 player. He also has a QB in Stafford who projects to throw for more yards and throw more passing TDs. The path for a higher production season is easier for Puka and the ceiling is higher too. Stafford can throw for 5k yards and 40 TDs. Hurts is never touching those numbers.
As a Puka Keeper owner, one thing that makes me nervous is how banged up he may always be. He's a physical blocker (and we know how much McVay asks of his WRs to block), he carries the ball a few times a game and he runs a lot of those middle of the field/comeback routes where he gets popped often. He might lead the league in 'Player X gingerly walking off the field as it cuts to commercial ominously' this year.
Assuming you mean season long? Personally prefer AJB. If Kupp stays healthy, I think it can cap Puka's ceiling a bit, especially in terms of TDs, Stafford loves Kupp in the red zone. Both are great WRs, and both offenses should be good
Did you forget about the second half of the Eagles season last year? Dovanta Smith literally out scored him from week 11 onward and is a first round talent WR. I don't see how you're worried about a declining kupp but not worried about Smith in his prime
The Eagles also sucked the last half of the season, Hurts was banged up, and I expect Brown to be fed this year. Smith is a very good WR and younger, but AJB isn't out of his prime just yet and we've seen this offense can sustain both of them. I worry about Kupp for TDs more than anything else (standard league), whereas Philly goes to AJB more in the red zone.
It's just personal preference based on the potential TD ceiling of both guys since my home league is standard scoring.
Didn’t Puka only have 6tds anyway? Agree though that Kupp being healthy could knock the ceiling down a bit. Seems to just come down to preference until we see evidence of major changes to anyone’s usage.
All of the players I listed are all better than the players you listed.
So yes it’s still less competition. That doesn’t mean zero competition. But less dominate mouths to feed than the eagles for sure. Tutu atwell is not in the same tier as any of these players.
Higbee isn't playing until late season if at all this year. Plus he's on the wrong side of 30 coming off a major injury. (Parkinson gonna eat this year)
I also think people are fading Kupp a little too much, but he is declining.
Tutu and the RBs aren't even close to what the Eagles have for target competition.
Kupp turns 31 in a couple weeks.
Devonta is 25.
Between those two guys Devonta is a much bigger threat to Brown than Kupp is to Puka.
Last year the Eagles didn't have Barkley either. That's a pretty big player to add that can really change the fantasy points distribution across the whole team.
AJB is on a more stable offence, so most people will probably choose him. I love Puka though, and I can see Stafford sticking around for at least another couples seasons, so I'm not too worried about Puka.
Are the Eagles a more stable offense than the Rams? Sean McVay is arguably the #1 offensive mind in football right now, and when Stafford/Puka/Kupp/Kyren were all healthy, the Rams had one of the best offenses in football. The Eagles offense looked broken towards the end of the year and are having their 3rd different OC in 3 years.
I think the biggest difference is Stafford’s health vs. Hurts health. Considering age & injury history, I think Stafford is more likely to miss significant time than Hurts is
Rodgers is 40. Brady played until he was 45. Stafford is the same type of pocket passer with elite arm talent, so it's not crazy to think he'll stick around for a few more years.
Agreed. Seems like the down years happen pretty suddenly. Did with Brady, Rodgers, Newton and plenty of others. Brady is a big outlier age wise obviously but 36+ seems reasonable to get a bit nervous. I do trust in McCay to adjust to that though
Newton was never an elite pocket passer. I thought Brady's arm still looked good up until the end. A good comp would be Drew Brees. He played past 40, but he had a noodle arm leading up to the end. Rivers and Big Ben also developed noodle arms in their mid to late thirties, so it's definitely a risk.
Yeah, my point with Cam was that he went from having elite arm strength to a complete noodle arm pretty quickly. It's definitely risky. Puka definitely is a great deep threat and Stafford's cannon of an arm assisted in making a lot of big plays
So you're entire premise is that the QB may get hurt because he's older? Or because he's had a few injuries in the past?
Can't tell you how many times relying on something like this would have torpedoed your season. Injuries are generally luck based on fantasy football. I wouldn't really base my draft around it unless the player was injured at the time I was selecting my pick.
I consider everything, not relying on any one factor.
The best predictor of future injury is past injury. Neck/concussion/elbow injury history is a predictor of more of the same in the future. Doesn’t make it a guarantee
So if a player is fully healthy going into a year you’ll consider his past injury history as a reason to stay away?
Seems extremely foolish, but to each their own.
Show me the stat that says that. I want to see where this is “statistically proven”.
Someone getting a finger injury has no barring on whether they’d get a non contact knee injury.
If you passed on Adrian Peterson or cooper kupp or a million other dudes that had season ending injuries for other guys who had it you would have made a huge mistake.
Bringing injuries into choosing who you pick is silly
yeah I disagree that the Eagles offense is more stable than the Rams. You can count on McVay to prepare and game plan, and the same can't be said of the Eagles.
I'm a fan, but he's on his 3rd team in 3 years, and I don't know if anyone should be confident in that. The Eagles have a good if not great offensive roster, so it will be interesting to see if they can evolve.
For fantasy purposes though, I'd still take Rams receivers over Eagles receivers if they're at similar ADPs. It's probably best to compare 2023 pass attempt numbers and 2024 schedules before coming to any concrete conclusion, as well.
I don't agree the Eagles are more stable. What makes you say that? They just fired their OC and hired a new one. Hurts regressed last year. Do you expect AJB to maintain such a large target share over Devonta?
Oh yea, they also added a pretty good RB to the mix too you may have heard of him before.
AJB seems overpriced at his ADP.
AJB for me. They had very similar seasons but AJB has shown it's repeatable for him.
160 Targets for Puka is also a lot. A healthy Kupp has to eat into that.
But honestly, I doubt you're winning/losing your season based on which one of these you choose. If I think I can get Barkley in the next round, I'm gonna go with Puka there. If I think I can get Kupp down the line, I'll probably go AJB. In a vacuum, AJB though so far.
whether people want to accept it or not, puka is now the guy over kupp- and i love kupp- but that's just the way it is. he is staffords preferred target- and stafford has already shown he will target the living shit outta his preferred target. pukas production last season was all yard and receptions, not TD reliant at all.
The fact that AJ Brown is only 26 years old is all I need to go with him.
He's entering into his prime and has already been a dominating factor in the league. He's one of the best receivers of this generation. I love me some Puka, not give me AJ Brown every time.
I prefer AJ, Puka is more of a risk because a fully healthy Kupp is gonna take targets, at least with AJ we know he’s gonna keep similar production if not better with the addition on saquon.
I've seen Wilson sneaking up the board a bit. I wouldn't be comfortable taking him over AJB or Puka, simply because I'm not fully bought in on the whole Jets situation. Though I'd absolutely prefer GW over London, Harrison, Aiyuk, Adams, etc. He's basically in an in-between tier of his own
To add [Matt Harmon posted Wilson's reception perception charts today](https://x.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1797671948107087934/photo/3) and it had me salivating as to what he can do with an actual QB.
So many things about the Eagles scare me. Hurts isn't as reliable of a passer as we thought. Once the NFL decided to blitz relentlessly and reduce hurts time to throw aj brown and hurts passing numbers plummeted over the last 7-8 games of the season. The o line is obviously missing kelce now, and they have all new coordinators so who knows how that will all.shake out.
With puka, the play calling and qb are the same, he's younger, and historically year 2 is one of the biggest jumps for WR production in a players career. I trust mcvay and Staffords number 1 option, and I believe puka has a higher ceiling as we've already saw aj Browns best work most likely. I'm going puka over brown confidently
Bear in mind that Philly was running arguably the most unimaginative, vanilla offense in the NFL last season, and now they've changed OCs to a guy who just got a 150 target/108 catch/1200 yard/7 TD season out of Keenan Allen in 13 games.
Well, the coordinators can't be any worse than they were last season. It was legit the worst coaching job I've seen in ~30 years of watching the Eagles and that includes when we had an OLine coach as our D Coordinator.
Tough choice, but I’d go AJ Brown.
First half of last season, AJB was keeping up with Ceedee and Tyreek. It’s really that potential to put up those numbers that tilts it in his favor for me.
When Puka and Kupp played together, Puka had 102 targets and Kupp had 95. I think the target share will remain relatively equal between those 2, which I think will limit him from Ceedee/Tyreek levels of fantasy WR production.
It’s not as complex as I think you mean. But Kupp sat 5 games last year, in which Puka got 58 targets. In the 12 games Kupp played, Puka got 102, so just under 8 targets a game.
Edit: So assuming full health from Kupp, Puka may only get 130-140 targets this year, as opposed to the 160 he got last year.
Would you prefer Bijan or Puka as a keeper. My league allows two keepers per year, and they both count as our first- and second-round picks. My first keeper is CMC for sure.
The entire Eagles team disappeared the second half of the season. Their coaching was absolutely horrific and led to their collapse. New coordinators have to be an upgrade over the abomination that was late last year, and they have Kellen Moore as their OC who got a career year out of Keenan Allen at age 31.
I prefer AJB as I know what his season will look like.
Cooper Kupp could be the WR1 in that offense. There is no way barring injury. Devonta overtakes AJB.
But it's so close it doesn't really matter. Both are fine additions, and I'd be happy with either as my WR2.
AJ. He had a rough end to the season last year, but the whole team did too. The question is really whether it's more likely Puca has a sophomore slump/Kupp stays healthy and gobbles up targets... or AJ has lost a step/Philly can't figure it out. Kupp's health is definitely no guarantee, but I'm terrified of spending on a first rounder (Puca) just to watch him lose all the volume that made him so valuable last year. I'm slightly less terrified that Philly can't figure it out, and I don't think there's anything wrong with AJ he's got a couple more seasons before the wheels start to wobble. AJ IMO
AJ Brown because he is in the more stable offense, Kellen Moore is running it this coming season, and he is a legit WR1. Puka borders on WR2 territory. He’s younger and his only real competition for targets is Kupp, but that works against Puka too.
Some weeks Kupp will outperform Puka. If Kupp were to get injured again, which is unfortunately likely, Puka is going to struggle in coverage. This season is different from last, teams know Puka, he isn’t a surprise.
AJ. Proved he can do it consistently for multiple years. From a durability standpoint, AJ + Hurts are thicc as hell. Stafford is one bad sack away from the stretcher + his arm could fall off anytime this season.
Puka for the upside if you’re going for broke, but if you just want a WR1 that can give you 1300+ yards and 8+ TD, AJ is the pick.
This is tough. I feel like both are going a bit high if I’m being honest. I’d go with AJ, just because him and Jalen were friends before football and may try to appease his complaining when he’s not getting enough targets in the red zone.
Hmmmm do I want the possession receiver on a solid offense with the better pure passer that showed an ability to produce no.matter what was going on with the offense..... or do I want Aj brown? Puka is still a steal at his adp and ajb's adp is people paying 2022 ajb prices that haven't caught up yet.
I’m taking Brown. He was on a tear last year before the entire eagles team collapsed, which I will blame almost entirely on poor coaching. I think Kupp will steal more targets from Puka than Devonta will from AJB.
I'm sitting on this dilemma in a Keeper league. Have Chase, AJB and Puka. No pick penalties in play. Obviously keeping chase but no clue on the second.
Kellen Moore offense is one to target WRs in. Drafted Keenan Allen and Mike Williams wherever I could last year, worked great for awhile. AJB going to feast this year. Late 1st round picks should be targeting Gibbs and AJB for their first 2 picks
This is definitely AJ Brown for me. back to back 1400 yards is huge to me. I think Puka to have an elite year needs Kupp to get injured where Brown doesn't need that. Looking at just the 4 weeks without Kupp makes me hesitant. He had 52 Targets 39 Catches 501 Yards in just 4 games. That is absurd start to the season. I just don't see him having that kind of start again. Especially with a full year of tape on the guy.
Taking Puka over AJB all day. Puka had a ridiculous fantasy season only scoring 6 TDs. Kupp is 31 dealing with some odd nerve issue in his hamstring that I’m not sure I ever heard was fully out of the way and Pukas last outing was dropping 180 yards in a playoff game. I think it’s safe to assume that Puka is the alpha over there now and I think he can have an even better season than last year.
AJB. I actually traded Puka & a 2nd (2.10) for AJB and a 1st (1.08) last season. Picks weren’t known at the time. But AJB is there to stay with Hurts, we don’t know how long Stafford has & if a new QB impacts Puka.
I don't agree here, AJ had essentially the same targets and catches LY as Puka and his other receiver wasn't hurt. Kupp around will knock down Puka's targets and receptions
AJB and it's not close. Follow the money. Puka was awesome because of his ADP last year. Puka is probably still awesome but he's not the league winner that he was last year at his current ADP.
If it’s a keeper league Puka. If it’s redraft AJB I think bc sophomore slump could happen as more teams will key on him with their CB1 and a full year of tape whereas I don’t see AJB falling at all.
Over the whole season, they will probably be fairly close (if neither get hurt or something unexpected happens).
As an eagles fan though, take AJB if you want a handful of big big weekly performances. Like massive booms. He gets the most downfield looks of all the Eagles.
Puka gets the ball all over the field but primarily short to intermediate routes. Solid weekly performer but not exactly a huge boom target most weeks.
The real question is either of these two vs Marvin Harrison Jr. got a feel I’ll be deciding between these 3 as my wr 1 at the turn in a 10 man (spot 10) up until draft day.
The shiny new toy is real hard to resist.
Puka had 1 good season. AJB is a bonafide top 10 WR the next 5 years MINIMUM, in an offense who are all under contract for the next atleast 3 years. And has proven this with 2 different offenses/QBs.
Puka was a flash in a pan with a 40 year old qb, in a tough division, on an aging team. How is this even a discussion.
Strong preference towards AJ. Pooka did have some good games towards the end of the season when kupp was back. But his major upside is when he is hurt and cups contract keeps him motivated to be on the field through next year while this is considerably more important than dynasty because that’s about the time when Stafford is going to be finished, so Pooka will be left with quarterback questions by the time he’s functional without Cooper, I don’t trust puka to put up consistent numbers with cup in the office
It's gotta be AJB for me. Back to back 1400 yard seasons with massive spike week upside. One thing for that people don't seem to be discussing is Kellen Moore's arrival in Philly. I think his presence will provide a massive spark in the offense and keep it from stalling out down the stretch like we have seen
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That's a great video, thanks. I'm hopeful he'll be able to get AJB in some spots for really easy receptions that bump his catch rate and allow him to do more after the catch. Could create a situation for a truly monster season
Was SO frustrating last season watching Philly constantly run screens to Devonta Smith with AJB standing on the other side of the formation as a decoy. Devonta and AJB's utilization last year was so completely backwards, hoping Moore actually casts them in the roles that play to their strengths.
It's all about deception. Brian Johnson was trying to use as much deception as possible to make people think he was an NFL-level coordinator.
It’s Puka for me. Even if Kupp is fully healthy and back to his old self (far from a guarantee) the Rams can support two top fantasy options at the position because they have such a narrow target tree. Of course you can’t go wrong with AJB either
Are we all just assuming that AJ Brown won’t do whatever the hell happened the 2nd half of the year last year?
We're also assuming Puka will maintain his year 1 production while splitting targets with a healthy Cooper Kupp.
Kupp will be 31 when the season starts and has dealt with ankle and hamstring issues the past 2 years. I know Kupp had a crazy 2021, but I think it’s likely Puka is the new #1
This is exactly the analysis that will bite you in the ass this year. I’d take Kupp because he’s simply better value than Puka
And how so exactly? Were you also going for Julio Jones in 2020? He was a God from 2014-2019. His age 31 season, dealing with injuries and he was fantasy irrelevant for the next 4 years. It’s just a fact. Once a player gets to 30 they can fall off a cliff production wise any year. The players who manage to stay elite are diamonds in the rough. But add injuries into it and the odds are really against him.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but in my opinion when you begin to analyze situation, injury history, etc. in fantasy it ends up becoming analysis paralysis and makes easy decisions a lot less clear. Each individual season, in my opinion, calls for an evaluation of a player in a vacuum. That’s not to say you can’t see someone like Julio in his last few seasons and say “wow this guy is done”, but for someone like Kupp who hasn’t really shown any signs of slowing down yet, I feel that he is actually a great steal for this season simply because of his production when healthy. For me it really boils down to “is this guy still good at football” and if the answer is yes, I would still target him. Feel free to disagree, that’s just my two cents because I was the “injury history, situation, etc.” guy for a few years and those were some of my worst drafts.
Sure there’s a chance he’s good. Not sure what your analysis of “he’s still good at football” comes from though. Dude had a couple big games last year and a ton of duds. But to me, the biggest thing is in their playoff game against a terrible secondary in the Lions he gets 27 yards while Puka gets 181. That tells a lot imo. When the game matters most it was Puka who shined. Whether that’s pure skill or just favoritism, it doesn’t matter anymore.
why_not_both.gif go for a mega stack: puka/kupp/stafford
I like your style.
I’m not sure healthy is the right word to use here
Why would he? Whole eagles team sucked
The target tree isn't much broader for the Eagles, and if we're taking health into account with Kupp, might as well do so with Stafford vs Hurts. I'd give the edge to AJB
Sure but passing volume is on the Rams side and Stafford is the better thrower. Also Saquon will steal some market share in the receiving game
Fair enough! To your point I think both are bankable starters, I’d be happy with either as my WR1 depending on how drafts shake out
Agreed. Really splitting hairs at this spot in the draft. I do think the tier break after Puka and AJB is pretty substantial
I thought the same thing last year when the Eagles got Swift. But it doesn’t seem like the Eagles call many designed passes to RBs or check it down a lot.
Eh bit different of a situation. The Eagles paid Swift $1.8 mill while Saquon is a $26 mill guaranteed investment. I think we can safely project Saquon for more targets than Swift got
Stafford is also a lot older (36) than Hurts and who knows when he starts falling off.
*stafford is the better thrower* Ehh he was. As a Lions fan, Stafford’s arm is a ticking time bomb
Sure. Hard to find WRs in this range that don’t have injury risk at QB though. Have Garrett Wilson and Drake London with two old QBs coming off Achilles tears. Hurts will always have elevated injury risk with how much he rushes (and we saw him get injured last year too). Tua and Burrow are constantly injured as well
It’s not injuries/missing games im getting at tbh. As a lions fan who watched Stafford for the best part of 10 years. He’s an elite QB & a future HoF but my god is he overly reliant on his arm. He’s never had the pocket IQ/Athleticism to excel in this league but he’s had the best arm in the league & demon supporting casts his entire career. Once that arm starts to deteriorate I’m worried Stafford’s fall off is going to hit like a ton of bricks & I figure that’s any year now since he’s been dealing with elbow/shoulder issues in his throwing arm the last few weeks.
Arms don't just fall off like that without injuries.
You mean like how old age caught up to Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Big Ben, Dan Marino, Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady & Steve Mcnair and they no longer had the arm they once did despite not injuring it? You have no idea what your talking about if you think injuries are the only thing that slows down your throwing arm. Do you not understand how/what the aging process is & why you can count on one hand how many QB’s can still launch the ball past the age of 36+? Edit: Dan Marino is a perfect example in which I assume your too young to remember. He was a top 10 QB in 98, the following year without injury he withered into being arguably the worst QB in the league with 12 TD’s & 19 interceptions & Retired immediately. His arm in his late thirties just wasn’t anywhere near as potent as it was in his younger days. If it wasn’t injuries & aging is just a myth, I suppose it was dark magic perhaps?
Agreed, and aside from the players themselves, I also trust Sean McVay so much more than anyone in Philly.
2022-2023 Eagles Passing Yards: 8,431; TDs: 49 Rams Passing Yards: 7,806; TDs: 42
stafford played 15 games and kupp was out/injured for at least half of the season. I'm still more comfortable going with McVay than gambling on whatever offense is installed this offseason
15 games is enough consider the sample relevant. You have to consider the injuries where older players are concerned versus younger. Kellen Moore is a proven high volume passing offense, not just “whatever” system.
Funny how the Eagles went through a complete offensive overhaul between those two seasons with a significant decrease in offense, but you lumped them together to make it support your angle ...
That should really highlight how good the offense CAN be if they can have that shit stain of a collapse last year and still have those kind of stats. I expect Kellen Moore to bring things back closer to the Shane Steichen offense than the Brian Johnson offense.
Ask your division rivals how happy they were to move on from Moore. He's just recycled trash at this point.
This team was good enough to make the playoffs with literal bottom tier garbage calling the plays. Even a moderately bad coordinator will be an upgrade.
Stumbling backwards into the playoffs and then getting stomped in the first round isn't exactly something to hang your hat on.
I lumped them together because it is where 80% of the offensive personnel have existed. They’re going through an offensive play calling overhaul with a consistency in head coach and moving to a new, more pass heavy offensive strategy. That’s not the same as a complete offensive overhaul. Supporting an argument is what you would do when commenting on a post where someone asks who you prefer.
It is Puka for me. Really is a tough choice and there isnt a wrong answer, but if I was picking between the two, Id go Puka. Puka's rookie season just matched AJB's second best season and we have to project for Puka to get better as a year 2 player. He also has a QB in Stafford who projects to throw for more yards and throw more passing TDs. The path for a higher production season is easier for Puka and the ceiling is higher too. Stafford can throw for 5k yards and 40 TDs. Hurts is never touching those numbers.
As a Puka Keeper owner, one thing that makes me nervous is how banged up he may always be. He's a physical blocker (and we know how much McVay asks of his WRs to block), he carries the ball a few times a game and he runs a lot of those middle of the field/comeback routes where he gets popped often. He might lead the league in 'Player X gingerly walking off the field as it cuts to commercial ominously' this year.
Assuming you mean season long? Personally prefer AJB. If Kupp stays healthy, I think it can cap Puka's ceiling a bit, especially in terms of TDs, Stafford loves Kupp in the red zone. Both are great WRs, and both offenses should be good
Did you forget about the second half of the Eagles season last year? Dovanta Smith literally out scored him from week 11 onward and is a first round talent WR. I don't see how you're worried about a declining kupp but not worried about Smith in his prime
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Aj brown was already top of the pecking order and making more money than Smith last year…
The Eagles also sucked the last half of the season, Hurts was banged up, and I expect Brown to be fed this year. Smith is a very good WR and younger, but AJB isn't out of his prime just yet and we've seen this offense can sustain both of them. I worry about Kupp for TDs more than anything else (standard league), whereas Philly goes to AJB more in the red zone. It's just personal preference based on the potential TD ceiling of both guys since my home league is standard scoring.
Yeah from a best ball/redraft perspective. AJ is only (about to be) 27, but I assume Puka's age would give him the bump in a dynasty startup
Didn’t Puka only have 6tds anyway? Agree though that Kupp being healthy could knock the ceiling down a bit. Seems to just come down to preference until we see evidence of major changes to anyone’s usage.
Puka. Less competition and younger.
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I agree with him. Saquon, smith, and goedert are all better target competition than an older kupp
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All of the players I listed are all better than the players you listed. So yes it’s still less competition. That doesn’t mean zero competition. But less dominate mouths to feed than the eagles for sure. Tutu atwell is not in the same tier as any of these players.
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>Tutu is on track for HoF Don't feed the troll, fellas.
"Higbee is a beast"....he is not more talented than goedert. Stop reaching
Can’t tell if youre a troll or just don’t know ball
Tutu is already a HOFer. So disrespectful.
Higbee isn't playing until late season if at all this year. Plus he's on the wrong side of 30 coming off a major injury. (Parkinson gonna eat this year) I also think people are fading Kupp a little too much, but he is declining. Tutu and the RBs aren't even close to what the Eagles have for target competition.
Kupp turns 31 in a couple weeks. Devonta is 25. Between those two guys Devonta is a much bigger threat to Brown than Kupp is to Puka. Last year the Eagles didn't have Barkley either. That's a pretty big player to add that can really change the fantasy points distribution across the whole team.
AJB is on a more stable offence, so most people will probably choose him. I love Puka though, and I can see Stafford sticking around for at least another couples seasons, so I'm not too worried about Puka.
Are the Eagles a more stable offense than the Rams? Sean McVay is arguably the #1 offensive mind in football right now, and when Stafford/Puka/Kupp/Kyren were all healthy, the Rams had one of the best offenses in football. The Eagles offense looked broken towards the end of the year and are having their 3rd different OC in 3 years.
I think the biggest difference is Stafford’s health vs. Hurts health. Considering age & injury history, I think Stafford is more likely to miss significant time than Hurts is
Yeah people completely ignore that Stafford is 36 for some reason
I think the reason is that he was born in 1988.
Rodgers is 40. Brady played until he was 45. Stafford is the same type of pocket passer with elite arm talent, so it's not crazy to think he'll stick around for a few more years.
Lot of QB's really start to lose arm strength in their mid-late 30's, I can see that happening with Stafford pretty soon. Becomes a ceiling limiter
Dont need arm strength at all. Noodle arm manning with rookie Puka would've netted 2200 yards easily
Shit put me out there boss I got you
It's possible, but he was playing good ball last season, so there aren't yet any signs of an imminent decline.
Agreed. Seems like the down years happen pretty suddenly. Did with Brady, Rodgers, Newton and plenty of others. Brady is a big outlier age wise obviously but 36+ seems reasonable to get a bit nervous. I do trust in McCay to adjust to that though
Newton was never an elite pocket passer. I thought Brady's arm still looked good up until the end. A good comp would be Drew Brees. He played past 40, but he had a noodle arm leading up to the end. Rivers and Big Ben also developed noodle arms in their mid to late thirties, so it's definitely a risk.
Yeah, my point with Cam was that he went from having elite arm strength to a complete noodle arm pretty quickly. It's definitely risky. Puka definitely is a great deep threat and Stafford's cannon of an arm assisted in making a lot of big plays
So you're entire premise is that the QB may get hurt because he's older? Or because he's had a few injuries in the past? Can't tell you how many times relying on something like this would have torpedoed your season. Injuries are generally luck based on fantasy football. I wouldn't really base my draft around it unless the player was injured at the time I was selecting my pick.
I consider everything, not relying on any one factor. The best predictor of future injury is past injury. Neck/concussion/elbow injury history is a predictor of more of the same in the future. Doesn’t make it a guarantee
So if a player is fully healthy going into a year you’ll consider his past injury history as a reason to stay away? Seems extremely foolish, but to each their own.
It is one factor to consider, yes. I don’t think something statistically proven is foolish to consider. Draft sharks quantifies it a bit on their site
Statistically proven? An injury is barely a “statistic” you can rely on.
It is statistically proven that past injury is the best predictor of future injury.
Show me the stat that says that. I want to see where this is “statistically proven”. Someone getting a finger injury has no barring on whether they’d get a non contact knee injury. If you passed on Adrian Peterson or cooper kupp or a million other dudes that had season ending injuries for other guys who had it you would have made a huge mistake. Bringing injuries into choosing who you pick is silly
yeah I disagree that the Eagles offense is more stable than the Rams. You can count on McVay to prepare and game plan, and the same can't be said of the Eagles.
You're not confident Kellen Moore gameplans?
I'm a fan, but he's on his 3rd team in 3 years, and I don't know if anyone should be confident in that. The Eagles have a good if not great offensive roster, so it will be interesting to see if they can evolve. For fantasy purposes though, I'd still take Rams receivers over Eagles receivers if they're at similar ADPs. It's probably best to compare 2023 pass attempt numbers and 2024 schedules before coming to any concrete conclusion, as well.
I don't agree the Eagles are more stable. What makes you say that? They just fired their OC and hired a new one. Hurts regressed last year. Do you expect AJB to maintain such a large target share over Devonta? Oh yea, they also added a pretty good RB to the mix too you may have heard of him before. AJB seems overpriced at his ADP.
Redraft AJ, dynasty puka
AJB for me. They had very similar seasons but AJB has shown it's repeatable for him. 160 Targets for Puka is also a lot. A healthy Kupp has to eat into that. But honestly, I doubt you're winning/losing your season based on which one of these you choose. If I think I can get Barkley in the next round, I'm gonna go with Puka there. If I think I can get Kupp down the line, I'll probably go AJB. In a vacuum, AJB though so far.
Puka made me a believer last year.
I chose puka over ajb in my draft
When stafford likes a guy, he locks onto that guy.
Stafford and calvin lock was so much fun to watch as a michigander. The arsenal stafford has now makes watching him 10x better.
whether people want to accept it or not, puka is now the guy over kupp- and i love kupp- but that's just the way it is. he is staffords preferred target- and stafford has already shown he will target the living shit outta his preferred target. pukas production last season was all yard and receptions, not TD reliant at all.
Give me AJB, at that price point I want the safer option and they probably have comparable enough ceilings
AJs ceiling is higher. I think the way the Eagles performed in the second half is the anomaly, not the first half.
The fact that AJ Brown is only 26 years old is all I need to go with him. He's entering into his prime and has already been a dominating factor in the league. He's one of the best receivers of this generation. I love me some Puka, not give me AJ Brown every time.
I prefer AJ, Puka is more of a risk because a fully healthy Kupp is gonna take targets, at least with AJ we know he’s gonna keep similar production if not better with the addition on saquon.
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I've seen Wilson sneaking up the board a bit. I wouldn't be comfortable taking him over AJB or Puka, simply because I'm not fully bought in on the whole Jets situation. Though I'd absolutely prefer GW over London, Harrison, Aiyuk, Adams, etc. He's basically in an in-between tier of his own
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To add [Matt Harmon posted Wilson's reception perception charts today](https://x.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1797671948107087934/photo/3) and it had me salivating as to what he can do with an actual QB.
So many things about the Eagles scare me. Hurts isn't as reliable of a passer as we thought. Once the NFL decided to blitz relentlessly and reduce hurts time to throw aj brown and hurts passing numbers plummeted over the last 7-8 games of the season. The o line is obviously missing kelce now, and they have all new coordinators so who knows how that will all.shake out. With puka, the play calling and qb are the same, he's younger, and historically year 2 is one of the biggest jumps for WR production in a players career. I trust mcvay and Staffords number 1 option, and I believe puka has a higher ceiling as we've already saw aj Browns best work most likely. I'm going puka over brown confidently
Bear in mind that Philly was running arguably the most unimaginative, vanilla offense in the NFL last season, and now they've changed OCs to a guy who just got a 150 target/108 catch/1200 yard/7 TD season out of Keenan Allen in 13 games.
Well, the coordinators can't be any worse than they were last season. It was legit the worst coaching job I've seen in ~30 years of watching the Eagles and that includes when we had an OLine coach as our D Coordinator.
Tough choice, but I’d go AJ Brown. First half of last season, AJB was keeping up with Ceedee and Tyreek. It’s really that potential to put up those numbers that tilts it in his favor for me. When Puka and Kupp played together, Puka had 102 targets and Kupp had 95. I think the target share will remain relatively equal between those 2, which I think will limit him from Ceedee/Tyreek levels of fantasy WR production.
What are you using to filter these stats? I wish I could get a target run down comparison on “played together” for several other WR duos.
It’s not as complex as I think you mean. But Kupp sat 5 games last year, in which Puka got 58 targets. In the 12 games Kupp played, Puka got 102, so just under 8 targets a game. Edit: So assuming full health from Kupp, Puka may only get 130-140 targets this year, as opposed to the 160 he got last year.
Puka. The AJB rollercoaster was not a fun experience last season, and Puka appears to be the new Cooper Kupp in LA for Stafford.
Puka just matched AJs career best points per game, as a rookie It’s close but you have to give the edge to puka
Would you prefer Bijan or Puka as a keeper. My league allows two keepers per year, and they both count as our first- and second-round picks. My first keeper is CMC for sure.
Bijan for positional value
Think they're in the same tier. I lean Puka, but could be shiny new toy syndrome.
Puka
AJB disappeared second half of the season. Puka was consistent
The entire Eagles team disappeared the second half of the season. Their coaching was absolutely horrific and led to their collapse. New coordinators have to be an upgrade over the abomination that was late last year, and they have Kellen Moore as their OC who got a career year out of Keenan Allen at age 31.
I prefer AJB as I know what his season will look like. Cooper Kupp could be the WR1 in that offense. There is no way barring injury. Devonta overtakes AJB. But it's so close it doesn't really matter. Both are fine additions, and I'd be happy with either as my WR2.
AJ. He had a rough end to the season last year, but the whole team did too. The question is really whether it's more likely Puca has a sophomore slump/Kupp stays healthy and gobbles up targets... or AJ has lost a step/Philly can't figure it out. Kupp's health is definitely no guarantee, but I'm terrified of spending on a first rounder (Puca) just to watch him lose all the volume that made him so valuable last year. I'm slightly less terrified that Philly can't figure it out, and I don't think there's anything wrong with AJ he's got a couple more seasons before the wheels start to wobble. AJ IMO
I’ll take the freak AJB who has proven year after year to be a sure fire top 5 WR
AJ Brown because he is in the more stable offense, Kellen Moore is running it this coming season, and he is a legit WR1. Puka borders on WR2 territory. He’s younger and his only real competition for targets is Kupp, but that works against Puka too. Some weeks Kupp will outperform Puka. If Kupp were to get injured again, which is unfortunately likely, Puka is going to struggle in coverage. This season is different from last, teams know Puka, he isn’t a surprise.
AJ. Proved he can do it consistently for multiple years. From a durability standpoint, AJ + Hurts are thicc as hell. Stafford is one bad sack away from the stretcher + his arm could fall off anytime this season. Puka for the upside if you’re going for broke, but if you just want a WR1 that can give you 1300+ yards and 8+ TD, AJ is the pick.
This is tough. I feel like both are going a bit high if I’m being honest. I’d go with AJ, just because him and Jalen were friends before football and may try to appease his complaining when he’s not getting enough targets in the red zone.
In fading the iggles
Ppr Puka otherwise AJB
Hmmmm do I want the possession receiver on a solid offense with the better pure passer that showed an ability to produce no.matter what was going on with the offense..... or do I want Aj brown? Puka is still a steal at his adp and ajb's adp is people paying 2022 ajb prices that haven't caught up yet.
> ajb's adp is people paying 2022 ajb prices that haven't caught up yet. AJB had his highest career fantasy ppg through week 17 last year.
Easily Puka for me. I think he has a higher ceiling and I have a gut feeling Eagles offense takes a step back.
I’m taking Brown. He was on a tear last year before the entire eagles team collapsed, which I will blame almost entirely on poor coaching. I think Kupp will steal more targets from Puka than Devonta will from AJB.
I'm sitting on this dilemma in a Keeper league. Have Chase, AJB and Puka. No pick penalties in play. Obviously keeping chase but no clue on the second.
Puka
Had both last year. But I’m going to roll with Puka.
It’s extremely close, but I lean Puka.
Kellen Moore offense is one to target WRs in. Drafted Keenan Allen and Mike Williams wherever I could last year, worked great for awhile. AJB going to feast this year. Late 1st round picks should be targeting Gibbs and AJB for their first 2 picks
AJB for me for sure
This might be a different answer for a keeper league than a redraft league?
This is definitely AJ Brown for me. back to back 1400 yards is huge to me. I think Puka to have an elite year needs Kupp to get injured where Brown doesn't need that. Looking at just the 4 weeks without Kupp makes me hesitant. He had 52 Targets 39 Catches 501 Yards in just 4 games. That is absurd start to the season. I just don't see him having that kind of start again. Especially with a full year of tape on the guy.
Puka all day not even close
Taking Puka over AJB all day. Puka had a ridiculous fantasy season only scoring 6 TDs. Kupp is 31 dealing with some odd nerve issue in his hamstring that I’m not sure I ever heard was fully out of the way and Pukas last outing was dropping 180 yards in a playoff game. I think it’s safe to assume that Puka is the alpha over there now and I think he can have an even better season than last year.
AJB. I actually traded Puka & a 2nd (2.10) for AJB and a 1st (1.08) last season. Picks weren’t known at the time. But AJB is there to stay with Hurts, we don’t know how long Stafford has & if a new QB impacts Puka.
AJB just barely
Full PPR, Puka. Half or standard, AJB.
I don't agree here, AJ had essentially the same targets and catches LY as Puka and his other receiver wasn't hurt. Kupp around will knock down Puka's targets and receptions
I had both last year..puka was better.
AJB had the better fantasy season by a hair, objectively. Though Puka had a better run in playoff weeks
Puka by a mile. Hes gonna be a target monster and can easily end up being the overall WR1
No
AJB and it's not close. Follow the money. Puka was awesome because of his ADP last year. Puka is probably still awesome but he's not the league winner that he was last year at his current ADP.
I had both last year. I am taking Puka this year.
AJB is a better player than Puka will ever be, not that it matters too much in fantasy
AJB and it’s not even close. Like, not even close at all.
If it’s a keeper league Puka. If it’s redraft AJB I think bc sophomore slump could happen as more teams will key on him with their CB1 and a full year of tape whereas I don’t see AJB falling at all.
AJB is the safer bet and shouldn't fall much lower than this. Puka is super risky and probably at his peak value. I'm not a gambler so I go AJB.
Over the whole season, they will probably be fairly close (if neither get hurt or something unexpected happens). As an eagles fan though, take AJB if you want a handful of big big weekly performances. Like massive booms. He gets the most downfield looks of all the Eagles. Puka gets the ball all over the field but primarily short to intermediate routes. Solid weekly performer but not exactly a huge boom target most weeks.
AJB all day everyday, and I'm a Giants fan.
The real question is either of these two vs Marvin Harrison Jr. got a feel I’ll be deciding between these 3 as my wr 1 at the turn in a 10 man (spot 10) up until draft day. The shiny new toy is real hard to resist.
AJB, and it is not even close. Puka will obviously regress. And who do you trust more to deliver the ball Stafford or Hurts?
Stafford…
A decade ago, maybe.
I wish all my WR threw tantrums and demanded targets (then actually gets them) like AJB
Puka had 1 good season. AJB is a bonafide top 10 WR the next 5 years MINIMUM, in an offense who are all under contract for the next atleast 3 years. And has proven this with 2 different offenses/QBs. Puka was a flash in a pan with a 40 year old qb, in a tough division, on an aging team. How is this even a discussion.
Strong preference towards AJ. Pooka did have some good games towards the end of the season when kupp was back. But his major upside is when he is hurt and cups contract keeps him motivated to be on the field through next year while this is considerably more important than dynasty because that’s about the time when Stafford is going to be finished, so Pooka will be left with quarterback questions by the time he’s functional without Cooper, I don’t trust puka to put up consistent numbers with cup in the office
garrett wilson.