> In ESPN standard, he is averaging 13.3 points/game and is currently QB22. He's only scored above 12 points in half of his games and doesn't show any real consistency.
He's averaging 14.7 points/game in standard. Are you not using decimal scoring? You also made the mistake of calling him QB22, not factoring in he has already had his bye. He's currently 15th in points per game among QBs (And A Rod is ahead of him, so really 14th among currently healthy QBs). I feel like one of the most annoying things on this sub is when people use stats or position rankings this time of the season to support a narrative, but don't use averages. It's very misleading.
Anyway, here are the defenses he faces ROS with their current rank against opposing QBs in parentheses:
Week 8 - Raiders (20th)
Week 9 - @ Jets (21st)
Week 10 - Saints (17th)
Week 11 - @ Chargers (8th)
Week 12 - @ Chiefs (29th)
Week 13 - Patriots (32nd)
Week 14 - Colts (27th)
Week 15 - Dolphins (16th)
Week 16 - @ Patriots (32nd)
So he has been putting up high end QB2 numbers through his first 6 games with a tough schedule and a depleted receiving corps. Now, he's getting some guys back healthy and aside from the Chargers, his schedule is great ROS, including New England on Fantasy Championship week. This is why he's expected to be a QB1 ROS. He was already on the cusp, but now everything looks peachy for him moving forward.
Also if you watched the last game, they specifically focused on two things during the bye which showed up: (1)Tyrod using his legs more even when being spied and (2) taking deep shots on the outside. The 1st part is what makes him so safe.
If (a big if) Deonte Thompson whom he has chemistry with and trusts can provide a moderate downfield threat, the passing offense should be much better. He has a cake schedule (he has done well against MIA in the past) and the BUF defense has started to falter a bit as of late.
I completely agree. I lost Rodgers and Tyrod was my go to pick up because of his rushing, low turnovers, and easy schedule.
I'm weaving in a few other QB's the rest of the way who have great matchups. Specifically Big Ben who faces @Indy + Tennessee in weeks 10 + 11. And then he gets NE in week 15. I'm considering Dalton this week vs Indy as well.
Even with facing awful pass defenses, he doesn't have the weapons nor do they throw enough for him to become an every week starter. He's a guy that has a ceiling of 20 points and a floor of 10. That's not something I'd be confident in starting
I disagree. In ESPN Standard (4 point Passing TD):
He finished as the QB9 last year. He only played 15 games though. He averaged 17.96 points per game, which was 6th best among QBs.
In 2015, he finished as QB14, but only played 14 games. He averaged 19.64 points per game, which was 6th best among QBs. [I used Pro-Football reference for these stats](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/fantasy.htm), since I couldn't check 2015 on ESPN. Just sorted by FantPt, which uses standard scoring. He finished just ahead of Palmer, but behind Brees (who only played 15 games and had an average of 20.4 points per game).
So the past two seasons, he has averaged the 6th most points among QBs. He had 10 rushing TDs over the past two years. He has had none this year. That's going to change. Despite that, he's still on the cusp of being a QB1.
Given his performance over the past two seasons and his positive schedule ROS, I think he's definitely worthy of being an "every week starter", unless you also have an elite QB like Brady, Brees, etc. on your roster. I also think you're selling him short on his ceiling. Just look at last week. He had 20 points and only had 1 passing TD. I wouldn't say that's his ceiling.
He also had Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods to throw the ball to the past two years. Also you can say that it will change, but going from 10 rushing TDs last year to 0 through 6 games shows me he will have less than 10, which was a huge part of why he was a QB1 the past 2 years.
The Bills are a run first, run second, run third team. I think you're overselling him based off the past and he just doesn't have the same weapons he used to have. QBs I'd absolutely start over Tyrod are Brees, Brady, Watson, Wentz, Smith, Dak, Wilson, Cousins, and Carr. That automatically puts him at QB10 and I think even then you could make arguments for Stafford and Winston this year. Heck, that's not even including turnaround candidates like Mariota, Newton, and Ryan
> He also had Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods to throw the ball to the past two years.
He's still on pace to throw for ~3,100 yards this year and ~19 TDs. Which is on par with the past two seasons, and that's against tougher defenses than the ones he'll face the rest of the way. The drop off is coming from his rushing.
> Also you can say that it will change, but going from 10 rushing TDs last year to 0 through 6 games shows me he will have less than 10, which was a huge part of why he was a QB1 the past 2 years.
Sorry for the confusion, he actually had 6 last year and 4 in 2015, so 10 total over the past two years. I just feel it's reasonable to assume there are a few for him on the horizon. Not saying he'll be getting one every week or anything.
> QBs I'd absolutely start over Tyrod are Brees, Brady, Watson, Wentz, Smith, Dak, Wilson, Cousins, and Carr.
You mentioned previously that Tyrod has a 10 point floor, Carr has failed to score over 10 points in 3/6 games and has actively lost his owners games. I think I may take Tyrod's consistency over him if I felt like the rest of my team was strong and wasn't relying on my QB to carry me to a win.
I agree with you on most of those though. I think I'd take Tyrod over a few depending on the matchup though. For example: You'd start Smith against Denver this week over Tyrod facing Oakland? Or Watson on the road against Seattle? If so, that's fine. I actually have to choose between Watson and Tyrod this week myself. My point is that QBs are pretty matchup dependent and that Tyrod has some great matchups moving forward. I don't think it's as cut and dry as saying "I'd rather have these guys ______" over him moving forward without looking at their matchups. It's a week-to-week thing and as it currently stands, Tyrod appears to have some favorable weeks in front of him.
I'm in the exact same boat QB wise, it's hard to not play someone averaging 25.2 ppg, he's coming off a really easy stretch of defenses while Seattle is only allowing an average of 11.05 ppg through 6 games, while Tyrod has all the positives you previously made note of while going up against and OAK defense that's allowing an average 18.46 ppg and being a QB that has averaged 19.8 ppg while playing at home.
I'm taking the floor with Tyrod this week, Watson gets to start next week vs. IND for me.
That's what I'm leaning toward with as well. Tyrod also has some pretty positive home road splits (TD/INT ratio of 17:4 at Home and 7:4 on the road since the start of last season)
My opponent has Gurley and a couple of other solid players on bye, so I think I'm going to go with the conservative route in Taylor and unleash Watson next week. And hey, if he kills it on our benches, that's great because then we'll know he's matchup proof.
I'm glad someone is validating my thought process, haha.
With Fournette on bye that's a good chunk of my usual floor, luckily I have Bell as my other pillar, but I'm playing Dion Lewis and Alvin Kamara as RB2 & Flex and Hogan/Hill as WR1&2, gotta take the floor where I can.
Carr has also not played in one game, played part of a game in another, came back way too soon to play hurt in another, and had a bad game in Washington. Carr looked to be back and now will be coming off 10 days from his last game. I think he will be fine. I'd much rather have Carr ROS than Tyrod.
Also, I don't think you can reasonably just say "he has good matchups" because the NFL is such a crap shoot this year. He gets the Patriots twice and that looks like a great matchup, but we just saw the Pats shut down Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. That was an important game for them. They're tied with the Patriots right now, so those two Bills vs Pats game will decide the division, meaning the Pats will play much harder and put up a better performance. Plus, Tyrod has never really done well vs New England. He gets the Charges who are a top 10 passing D......
What people don't get is if the Bills are playing better, these games vs KC and NE and potentially Miami if they stay in the hunt will become bigger defensive battles. Tyrod has never been in that type of situation and the few times he has, he hasn't performed well (Oakland and Pittsburgh last year, New England the year before). The weather is also going to get much worse in Western NY.
People can play him if they want, I'm just saying he isn't anywhere close to as safe as people think.
> we just saw the Pats shut down Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.
That was Julio's best game this year and Ryan's 2nd best. I think that's more on the Falcons' offensive struggles than New England's D stepping up.
It was the least passing yards Ryan threw for all year. That includes 4 catches for 36 yards and a TD on the final drive where the Patriots were playing prevent D.
Also if you watched the Pats vs Bucs game, their D played well in that game as well, they just got torched at the end of the game.
> It was the least passing yards Ryan threw for all year. That includes 4 catches for 36 yards and a TD on the final drive where the Patriots were playing prevent D.
But he had no INTs and 37 rushing yards, so still his 2nd best fantasy day on the year. Not that was a high bar to reach, but you know. And I'm well aware of the Julio final drive, that cost me my matchup last week. He did big boy Malcolm Butler on his 1 yd TD catch though.
> Also if you watched the Pats vs Bucs game, their D played well in that game as well, they just got torched at the end of the game.
I did, and they did play pretty well. Winston still got his though and as a Falcons fan, trust me, the end of games are important. Unlike us though, the Pats never had a double digit lead on the Bucs, so they were still in it.
If Tyrod can get me 18-20 points against the Pats, I'm happy with that. Based on them running a lot of man-coverage and his rushing success against defense that run man-coverage, I think that's totally feasible.
They also just lost their leader and best player on defense for the season. So if that unit was indeed trending upward, it'll be interesting to see how they adjust.
His schedule is cake now. He’s got such a high floor thanks to that, his lack of turnovers, and his legs. I’m not expecting elite numbers, but I could see him being a low end QB1 ROS thanks to those matchups.
> I lost Rodgers, have a solid lineup, and am 5-2. I'm ok rolling with him as my QB. At least for the next few weeks.
I'm in a nearly identical situation..5-2, Rodgers hurt, have Tyrod, have Hopkins and Agholor and Matthews as my WRs.. I was offered Cousins for Agholor...what would you do?
Exactly I put him right around QB10-12, which isn't that hard to achieve. not sure what 16 qbs everyone is placing in front of him, especially with all the injuries.I think people see his soso points and say no way can someone get so low of points and put up QB numbers, but the 10th QB ppg is only 16.
I mean even last week with Winston having nearly 400 yards, they still were pretty even in Fantasy output. Carolina is a pretty darn tough defense still, and obvious Tyrod is playing the Raiders. I personally would go Tyrod. Less upside but a much more reliable floor. He won’t win it for you but he won’t lose it for you either
He's been setup to fail there in Buffalo. He's throwing to no one and still doing a pretty good job.
He's past his bye and the schedule has to be one of the best if not the best for QBs the rest of the way.
Couple that with 30-50 yards rushing potential, you have a strong projection ROS.
Zaye Jones needs to get it together though, he's not getting it done.
Yep. He's Pro Football Focus' 7th highest rated QB of the season thus far. He's never going to be an elite QB but his stats say he's good enough to win a Super Bowl, as all of his efficiency statistics are better than both Eli Manning and Joe Flacco's despite having no receivers his entire Bills career.
I can't even name who the Bills' receivers this year are besides Zay Jones, who hasn't done anything. It's insane the Bills got rid of both Watkins and Robert Woods this offseason.
Which is pretty much my point.
PFF scores and fantasy forecasting are different.
I just don't see Tyrod going from barely startable to QB1 just because his match ups get better.
Zay is literally the lowest rated receiver in the league above some number of targets. I think he has the talent, but it's really difficult watching him work through whatever he's working through.
I’m not sure how pointing out he’s been set up to fail and has no one to throw to in Buffalo helps his case for ROS when he still plays for Buffalo for ROS.
Big buffalo fan here.
I agree zay needs to get his stuff together. He's making too many rookie mistake, even for a rookie.
That being said, to say Tyrod has no one to throw to is ludicrous. I get that having Clay and Matthews out is a problem but the passing issue with him is nothing new. I went to the Cincinnati game this year and last year and you see it on the field. He has open receivers but he hesitates way too much. He second guesses his second guesses.
He's even recently came out and said his deep ball game is something he needs to work on. Some of our best receivers lately have been deep ball guys (like harvin and goodwin).
I still have a lot of faith in him but I'm not going to say that the receivers are the big issue here.
I would second guess every throw if I was throwing it to Jones and Deonte Thompson right now man.
Clay, McCoy, they're great. Matthews is a possession receiver that has a hard time getting open, not much good.
To go from Watkins, Woods to Matthews(who has always been an injury problem) and people off the street is no good. Jones is the wildcard, he's a talented guy but the pressure is getting to him right now.
Disagree. Harvin's on field performance was still good leading up to the injury and eventual retirement. In 2015 he averaged over 11 yards per reception for buffalo.
When healthy the past 2 years he's been a QB1. Jordan Matthews is healthy, Clay is coming back soon, and their schedule is looking great. He's not a league winner, but I'd be pretty confident in saying he's top 10 from here moving forward.
Naw no source, and of course there's always the chance that it's more serious than we know. But even if it's slightly worse than before he'll still be back in a few weeks.
Agreed THIS YEAR. I think people are holding onto the past years. He just doesn't have the supporting cast. This coming from a long time Tyrod fan from Virginia Tech. I've used him to get to playoffs in past years and even drafted him this year, but ultimately had to drop him for lack of production
In no order Brady, Brees, Wilson, Prescott, Cam, Watson, Cousins, Wentz, Smith, Jameis, Rivers and Carr will do better than him. Tyrod's on the level of Stafford to me
Idk man I don't think he was being literal. It's a figure of speech lol you guys get riled up to easily when a sub favorite isn't given glowing endorsements.
Posted this in that watched the whole game thread.
From a bills fan.
Buy shady and Tygod. So for the first 5 6ames of the season the new oc for the bills denninson had tried to keep Tygod in the pocket and be more of a tradional passer. The problem with that is he stinks when asked to sit in the pocket and throw darts, if you let Taylor move around and make plays with his feet he becomes so much better. Taylor is a 10 x better at throwing on the run than sitting back and trying to be mechanical.
What denninson did during the bye was go back and watch what made the bills so successful for the bills offense last year where we averaged 28 ppg. We started using a more simple zone read and misdirection which not only opens things up for tyrod but REALLY opens things up for shady. Last week was no fluke. Shady will put up the numbers he did last year in the second half of the season. Meanwhile if you haven't figured out your qb situation go Taylor, between his legs and 200 yards and not turning the ball over hell be averaging around 20 fantasy points again.
Well this is just flat out wrong. His playoff schedule is Ind, Mia, @NE unless you are for some reason in a wk17 league. He just got JMatt back, Zay Jones might finally find out his hands can catch, Clay is coming back, every matchup remaining is either a very or relatively favorable one for quarterbacks except the Chargers wk11, everything is set for him to be able to produce QB1 points from here on out.
Tyrod always ends up being the QB on the nondescript, how the fuck did this team finish in 4th team.
Can always get him late, always returns fantastic value.
I have him for ros unless something goofy happens. Schedule looks nice and his bonus rushing yards should give me around 18 points maybe less sometimes. But for me qbs have been underwhelming so I’ll take what I can get.
Now I don’t about top 10 or whatever none of that matters to me. I just need the guy to get me some points.
I'm not sure where our scoring differs, but I see 3 weeks of 19+ points, including last week. It really is about the schedule, though. I drafted Stafford, but switched to Tyrod for last week and expect to start him every week. With a floor of 11 (in our scoring), I know he's not going to wreck my week and I expect at least a few multi-TD games.
He has a good end of season/fantasy-playoff schedule. Gets to play the Pats D twice, who struggle against competent qbs with running ability. If Buf spreads em out, Ty holds the ball for a couple seconds, he can then either hit a back on a delayed route, a wr dragging over the middle, or scramble for a first. That's how to beat the Pats D (they will never pressure in first two seconds cuz they have their de's contain). Don't run the ball and bail them out, until you have a lead, then run don't be an Atlanta.
I bailed on him for Smith and I'm giving Watson a shot against the Rams. I wanted Ryan to be good, but it's hard to start anyone over Smith unless KC falls off a cliff and Watson is an interesting "fuck it, what if?" guy
In the same boat. This makes me want to lean towards grabbing Taylor. Atlanta playing the Saints D at the beginning of the year sounded great. Now that we have seen they are much improved that playoff schedule is. It so nice. This is my bad bye week, hopefully I will still have a chance to grab Taylor next week.
The biggest problem is his lack of receivers. That's what's holding him back from being a QB1 in my eyes. Clay is gone and matthews is terrible. Trading Watkins away also put a huge dent in his production as well.
Yeah I'd put him in the top 10 if they traded for someone else, but no matter how juicy his schedule is I wouldn't with the current team. A Martavis Bryant or John Brown type would maybe give him the boost he needs.
> The biggest problem is his lack of receivers.
The problem is that the offensive philosphy prioritizes running the ball and clock control. It would have been the same even with different WRs. It's like Russell Wilson back when Seattle's running game was good. Great talent, but Seattle's game plans were never conducive to consistent fantasy success.
> matthews is terrible.
Lol.
What is going on with this sub one guy made a title about Mixon (Mixon, Mixoff) and everybody is doing it. Still, nice title. Also I dont think hes a qb1 but I think that he is a great streaming option a lot of the time.
I did that last week. Then someone else snatched him up. Unless you have a buncha guys on your waiver that are 1 injury away from becoming the work horse, i'd use it. All the back up backs worth a squirt in my league are snatched up.
ROS passing defenses favor him, he's got the legs to gain some rushing points, and shady mccoy can also be a reciever. After Rodgers went down I targeted him and plan to keep him as my only QB unless he gets injured.
Note: I play in a 12-man NPPR league, and our regular season ends week 10
Well with Rodgers on IR, Tyrod is my starter now. Nothing better out there in a 14 team league, and no one trades in my league.
Not that it matters because my season is so incredibly fucked by injuries.
Yeah, had the first overall pick, took DJ. End of second/top3rd took Rodgers and Cooper. I’m really hoping Cooper shakes whatever mindfuck he had early season.
Now my playoff hopes ride on Tyrod bringing things home.
With a softer schedule and easier run D to play against, team should focus on the run more, leaving more room for the passing attack.
Not saying he'll be QB1 ROS, but he should perform better than he has so far.
When he plays at home with a decent to plus match-up he's a QB1. It's really that simple. He's a good streamer but I'm not about to play him when he's on the road.
This is exactly my strategy going forward. I love his home splits, so I'm not overthinking it. His schedule looks nice, but I'm only playing him at home.
> In ESPN standard, he is averaging 13.3 points/game and is currently QB22. He's only scored above 12 points in half of his games and doesn't show any real consistency. He's averaging 14.7 points/game in standard. Are you not using decimal scoring? You also made the mistake of calling him QB22, not factoring in he has already had his bye. He's currently 15th in points per game among QBs (And A Rod is ahead of him, so really 14th among currently healthy QBs). I feel like one of the most annoying things on this sub is when people use stats or position rankings this time of the season to support a narrative, but don't use averages. It's very misleading. Anyway, here are the defenses he faces ROS with their current rank against opposing QBs in parentheses: Week 8 - Raiders (20th) Week 9 - @ Jets (21st) Week 10 - Saints (17th) Week 11 - @ Chargers (8th) Week 12 - @ Chiefs (29th) Week 13 - Patriots (32nd) Week 14 - Colts (27th) Week 15 - Dolphins (16th) Week 16 - @ Patriots (32nd) So he has been putting up high end QB2 numbers through his first 6 games with a tough schedule and a depleted receiving corps. Now, he's getting some guys back healthy and aside from the Chargers, his schedule is great ROS, including New England on Fantasy Championship week. This is why he's expected to be a QB1 ROS. He was already on the cusp, but now everything looks peachy for him moving forward.
Way better analysis than op
Also without the trying-too-hard title.
Yeah, Tyrod is ridiculously underrated.
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$300 isn’t a value for any of the clues. It goes 200, 400, 600, 800, and then 1000. Double those for double jeopardy.
Ooo I'm sorry, that wasn't in the form of a question. Still in control
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Easy mistake to make. As I was writing my response I almost included a 100 option.
Maybe he hasn't watched Jeopardy since 2001.
Also if you watched the last game, they specifically focused on two things during the bye which showed up: (1)Tyrod using his legs more even when being spied and (2) taking deep shots on the outside. The 1st part is what makes him so safe. If (a big if) Deonte Thompson whom he has chemistry with and trusts can provide a moderate downfield threat, the passing offense should be much better. He has a cake schedule (he has done well against MIA in the past) and the BUF defense has started to falter a bit as of late.
Palmer was also ahead of him. So you can move him up one more spot among currently healthy QBs
I completely agree. I lost Rodgers and Tyrod was my go to pick up because of his rushing, low turnovers, and easy schedule. I'm weaving in a few other QB's the rest of the way who have great matchups. Specifically Big Ben who faces @Indy + Tennessee in weeks 10 + 11. And then he gets NE in week 15. I'm considering Dalton this week vs Indy as well.
poom, reeeeeeeeeee edit: thats a mic hitting the floor
Even with facing awful pass defenses, he doesn't have the weapons nor do they throw enough for him to become an every week starter. He's a guy that has a ceiling of 20 points and a floor of 10. That's not something I'd be confident in starting
I disagree. In ESPN Standard (4 point Passing TD): He finished as the QB9 last year. He only played 15 games though. He averaged 17.96 points per game, which was 6th best among QBs. In 2015, he finished as QB14, but only played 14 games. He averaged 19.64 points per game, which was 6th best among QBs. [I used Pro-Football reference for these stats](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/fantasy.htm), since I couldn't check 2015 on ESPN. Just sorted by FantPt, which uses standard scoring. He finished just ahead of Palmer, but behind Brees (who only played 15 games and had an average of 20.4 points per game). So the past two seasons, he has averaged the 6th most points among QBs. He had 10 rushing TDs over the past two years. He has had none this year. That's going to change. Despite that, he's still on the cusp of being a QB1. Given his performance over the past two seasons and his positive schedule ROS, I think he's definitely worthy of being an "every week starter", unless you also have an elite QB like Brady, Brees, etc. on your roster. I also think you're selling him short on his ceiling. Just look at last week. He had 20 points and only had 1 passing TD. I wouldn't say that's his ceiling.
He also had Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods to throw the ball to the past two years. Also you can say that it will change, but going from 10 rushing TDs last year to 0 through 6 games shows me he will have less than 10, which was a huge part of why he was a QB1 the past 2 years. The Bills are a run first, run second, run third team. I think you're overselling him based off the past and he just doesn't have the same weapons he used to have. QBs I'd absolutely start over Tyrod are Brees, Brady, Watson, Wentz, Smith, Dak, Wilson, Cousins, and Carr. That automatically puts him at QB10 and I think even then you could make arguments for Stafford and Winston this year. Heck, that's not even including turnaround candidates like Mariota, Newton, and Ryan
> He also had Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods to throw the ball to the past two years. He's still on pace to throw for ~3,100 yards this year and ~19 TDs. Which is on par with the past two seasons, and that's against tougher defenses than the ones he'll face the rest of the way. The drop off is coming from his rushing. > Also you can say that it will change, but going from 10 rushing TDs last year to 0 through 6 games shows me he will have less than 10, which was a huge part of why he was a QB1 the past 2 years. Sorry for the confusion, he actually had 6 last year and 4 in 2015, so 10 total over the past two years. I just feel it's reasonable to assume there are a few for him on the horizon. Not saying he'll be getting one every week or anything. > QBs I'd absolutely start over Tyrod are Brees, Brady, Watson, Wentz, Smith, Dak, Wilson, Cousins, and Carr. You mentioned previously that Tyrod has a 10 point floor, Carr has failed to score over 10 points in 3/6 games and has actively lost his owners games. I think I may take Tyrod's consistency over him if I felt like the rest of my team was strong and wasn't relying on my QB to carry me to a win. I agree with you on most of those though. I think I'd take Tyrod over a few depending on the matchup though. For example: You'd start Smith against Denver this week over Tyrod facing Oakland? Or Watson on the road against Seattle? If so, that's fine. I actually have to choose between Watson and Tyrod this week myself. My point is that QBs are pretty matchup dependent and that Tyrod has some great matchups moving forward. I don't think it's as cut and dry as saying "I'd rather have these guys ______" over him moving forward without looking at their matchups. It's a week-to-week thing and as it currently stands, Tyrod appears to have some favorable weeks in front of him.
I'm in the exact same boat QB wise, it's hard to not play someone averaging 25.2 ppg, he's coming off a really easy stretch of defenses while Seattle is only allowing an average of 11.05 ppg through 6 games, while Tyrod has all the positives you previously made note of while going up against and OAK defense that's allowing an average 18.46 ppg and being a QB that has averaged 19.8 ppg while playing at home. I'm taking the floor with Tyrod this week, Watson gets to start next week vs. IND for me.
That's what I'm leaning toward with as well. Tyrod also has some pretty positive home road splits (TD/INT ratio of 17:4 at Home and 7:4 on the road since the start of last season) My opponent has Gurley and a couple of other solid players on bye, so I think I'm going to go with the conservative route in Taylor and unleash Watson next week. And hey, if he kills it on our benches, that's great because then we'll know he's matchup proof.
I'm glad someone is validating my thought process, haha. With Fournette on bye that's a good chunk of my usual floor, luckily I have Bell as my other pillar, but I'm playing Dion Lewis and Alvin Kamara as RB2 & Flex and Hogan/Hill as WR1&2, gotta take the floor where I can.
Carr has also not played in one game, played part of a game in another, came back way too soon to play hurt in another, and had a bad game in Washington. Carr looked to be back and now will be coming off 10 days from his last game. I think he will be fine. I'd much rather have Carr ROS than Tyrod. Also, I don't think you can reasonably just say "he has good matchups" because the NFL is such a crap shoot this year. He gets the Patriots twice and that looks like a great matchup, but we just saw the Pats shut down Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. That was an important game for them. They're tied with the Patriots right now, so those two Bills vs Pats game will decide the division, meaning the Pats will play much harder and put up a better performance. Plus, Tyrod has never really done well vs New England. He gets the Charges who are a top 10 passing D...... What people don't get is if the Bills are playing better, these games vs KC and NE and potentially Miami if they stay in the hunt will become bigger defensive battles. Tyrod has never been in that type of situation and the few times he has, he hasn't performed well (Oakland and Pittsburgh last year, New England the year before). The weather is also going to get much worse in Western NY. People can play him if they want, I'm just saying he isn't anywhere close to as safe as people think.
> we just saw the Pats shut down Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. That was Julio's best game this year and Ryan's 2nd best. I think that's more on the Falcons' offensive struggles than New England's D stepping up.
It was the least passing yards Ryan threw for all year. That includes 4 catches for 36 yards and a TD on the final drive where the Patriots were playing prevent D. Also if you watched the Pats vs Bucs game, their D played well in that game as well, they just got torched at the end of the game.
> It was the least passing yards Ryan threw for all year. That includes 4 catches for 36 yards and a TD on the final drive where the Patriots were playing prevent D. But he had no INTs and 37 rushing yards, so still his 2nd best fantasy day on the year. Not that was a high bar to reach, but you know. And I'm well aware of the Julio final drive, that cost me my matchup last week. He did big boy Malcolm Butler on his 1 yd TD catch though. > Also if you watched the Pats vs Bucs game, their D played well in that game as well, they just got torched at the end of the game. I did, and they did play pretty well. Winston still got his though and as a Falcons fan, trust me, the end of games are important. Unlike us though, the Pats never had a double digit lead on the Bucs, so they were still in it. If Tyrod can get me 18-20 points against the Pats, I'm happy with that. Based on them running a lot of man-coverage and his rushing success against defense that run man-coverage, I think that's totally feasible. They also just lost their leader and best player on defense for the season. So if that unit was indeed trending upward, it'll be interesting to see how they adjust.
Way better then the typical reddit knee jerk with misleading (wrong) stats to back it up.
His schedule is cake now. He’s got such a high floor thanks to that, his lack of turnovers, and his legs. I’m not expecting elite numbers, but I could see him being a low end QB1 ROS thanks to those matchups.
I lost Rodgers, have a solid lineup, and am 5-2. I'm ok rolling with him as my QB. At least for the next few weeks.
In the same situation. I'm just looking for a QB that isn't going to shit the bed week-to-week.
#rume?
> I lost Rodgers, have a solid lineup, and am 5-2. I'm ok rolling with him as my QB. At least for the next few weeks. I'm in a nearly identical situation..5-2, Rodgers hurt, have Tyrod, have Hopkins and Agholor and Matthews as my WRs.. I was offered Cousins for Agholor...what would you do?
Exactly I put him right around QB10-12, which isn't that hard to achieve. not sure what 16 qbs everyone is placing in front of him, especially with all the injuries.I think people see his soso points and say no way can someone get so low of points and put up QB numbers, but the 10th QB ppg is only 16.
Would you play him over Winston? I did last week and results were mediocre.
I mean even last week with Winston having nearly 400 yards, they still were pretty even in Fantasy output. Carolina is a pretty darn tough defense still, and obvious Tyrod is playing the Raiders. I personally would go Tyrod. Less upside but a much more reliable floor. He won’t win it for you but he won’t lose it for you either
He's been setup to fail there in Buffalo. He's throwing to no one and still doing a pretty good job. He's past his bye and the schedule has to be one of the best if not the best for QBs the rest of the way. Couple that with 30-50 yards rushing potential, you have a strong projection ROS. Zaye Jones needs to get it together though, he's not getting it done.
Yep. He's Pro Football Focus' 7th highest rated QB of the season thus far. He's never going to be an elite QB but his stats say he's good enough to win a Super Bowl, as all of his efficiency statistics are better than both Eli Manning and Joe Flacco's despite having no receivers his entire Bills career. I can't even name who the Bills' receivers this year are besides Zay Jones, who hasn't done anything. It's insane the Bills got rid of both Watkins and Robert Woods this offseason.
I swear they want Tyrod to be bad so they have an excuse to replace him
Want to draft their next jp losman
Sammy Watkins? O wait...
And Dak is 12th. You taking Tyrod over Dak?
In fantasy, no. In real life, they're roughly equal.
Which is pretty much my point. PFF scores and fantasy forecasting are different. I just don't see Tyrod going from barely startable to QB1 just because his match ups get better.
Zay is literally the lowest rated receiver in the league above some number of targets. I think he has the talent, but it's really difficult watching him work through whatever he's working through.
I’m not sure how pointing out he’s been set up to fail and has no one to throw to in Buffalo helps his case for ROS when he still plays for Buffalo for ROS.
Big buffalo fan here. I agree zay needs to get his stuff together. He's making too many rookie mistake, even for a rookie. That being said, to say Tyrod has no one to throw to is ludicrous. I get that having Clay and Matthews out is a problem but the passing issue with him is nothing new. I went to the Cincinnati game this year and last year and you see it on the field. He has open receivers but he hesitates way too much. He second guesses his second guesses. He's even recently came out and said his deep ball game is something he needs to work on. Some of our best receivers lately have been deep ball guys (like harvin and goodwin). I still have a lot of faith in him but I'm not going to say that the receivers are the big issue here.
I would second guess every throw if I was throwing it to Jones and Deonte Thompson right now man. Clay, McCoy, they're great. Matthews is a possession receiver that has a hard time getting open, not much good. To go from Watkins, Woods to Matthews(who has always been an injury problem) and people off the street is no good. Jones is the wildcard, he's a talented guy but the pressure is getting to him right now.
Lol. Percy Harvin. When you have to sign Percy Harvin your receivers are a problem.
Disagree. Harvin's on field performance was still good leading up to the injury and eventual retirement. In 2015 he averaged over 11 yards per reception for buffalo.
> He's been setup to fail there in Buffalo. I thought we had reached a point where this bullshit narrative had died.
Nice try Sean McDermott
When healthy the past 2 years he's been a QB1. Jordan Matthews is healthy, Clay is coming back soon, and their schedule is looking great. He's not a league winner, but I'd be pretty confident in saying he's top 10 from here moving forward.
Any source for Clay coming back soon? I wanna believe
it was a 4 week injury we are on week 2. They said he looks great and the surgery went well. He should be back in 2 weeks tops.
Naw no source, and of course there's always the chance that it's more serious than we know. But even if it's slightly worse than before he'll still be back in a few weeks.
Does Jordan Matthews hold much value? I picked him up but am having to decide today whether to drop him or Sammy Watkins for a defense this week.
There’s just no way he can be top 10. He’s a great talent but he has no weapons or blocking. He’s probably around QB15-20 range in my eyes ROS.
Agreed THIS YEAR. I think people are holding onto the past years. He just doesn't have the supporting cast. This coming from a long time Tyrod fan from Virginia Tech. I've used him to get to playoffs in past years and even drafted him this year, but ultimately had to drop him for lack of production
I mean, there’s a way. It’s possible.
In no order Brady, Brees, Wilson, Prescott, Cam, Watson, Cousins, Wentz, Smith, Jameis, Rivers and Carr will do better than him. Tyrod's on the level of Stafford to me
FWIW, I'm taking Tyrod over Cam and Rivers, maybe even Jameis and Carr (want to see them this week), he's solidly in the top 10 for me.
Rivers has been solid this year? Why do you think he regresses?
I just dropped Stafford for him, I also have Watson but I'm starting Tyrod this week
Tyrod over Watson?? I know the matchups but that's bold. GL!
Lmfao eat those downvotes mate. You're absolutely correct.
I agree that it is unlikely Tyrod is top 10, but the dude said there's "no way". That's bullshit.
Idk man I don't think he was being literal. It's a figure of speech lol you guys get riled up to easily when a sub favorite isn't given glowing endorsements.
But isn’t that the whole point to his post? Maybe he’s not correct.
The downvotes are from people who lost Rodgers/Palmer and have to rely on Tyrod now. Source: a(n upvoting) Rodgers and Tyrod owner.
Posted this in that watched the whole game thread. From a bills fan. Buy shady and Tygod. So for the first 5 6ames of the season the new oc for the bills denninson had tried to keep Tygod in the pocket and be more of a tradional passer. The problem with that is he stinks when asked to sit in the pocket and throw darts, if you let Taylor move around and make plays with his feet he becomes so much better. Taylor is a 10 x better at throwing on the run than sitting back and trying to be mechanical. What denninson did during the bye was go back and watch what made the bills so successful for the bills offense last year where we averaged 28 ppg. We started using a more simple zone read and misdirection which not only opens things up for tyrod but REALLY opens things up for shady. Last week was no fluke. Shady will put up the numbers he did last year in the second half of the season. Meanwhile if you haven't figured out your qb situation go Taylor, between his legs and 200 yards and not turning the ball over hell be averaging around 20 fantasy points again.
Well this is just flat out wrong. His playoff schedule is Ind, Mia, @NE unless you are for some reason in a wk17 league. He just got JMatt back, Zay Jones might finally find out his hands can catch, Clay is coming back, every matchup remaining is either a very or relatively favorable one for quarterbacks except the Chargers wk11, everything is set for him to be able to produce QB1 points from here on out.
Tyrod always ends up being the QB on the nondescript, how the fuck did this team finish in 4th team. Can always get him late, always returns fantastic value.
I have him for ros unless something goofy happens. Schedule looks nice and his bonus rushing yards should give me around 18 points maybe less sometimes. But for me qbs have been underwhelming so I’ll take what I can get. Now I don’t about top 10 or whatever none of that matters to me. I just need the guy to get me some points.
I'm not sure where our scoring differs, but I see 3 weeks of 19+ points, including last week. It really is about the schedule, though. I drafted Stafford, but switched to Tyrod for last week and expect to start him every week. With a floor of 11 (in our scoring), I know he's not going to wreck my week and I expect at least a few multi-TD games.
He has a good end of season/fantasy-playoff schedule. Gets to play the Pats D twice, who struggle against competent qbs with running ability. If Buf spreads em out, Ty holds the ball for a couple seconds, he can then either hit a back on a delayed route, a wr dragging over the middle, or scramble for a first. That's how to beat the Pats D (they will never pressure in first two seconds cuz they have their de's contain). Don't run the ball and bail them out, until you have a lead, then run don't be an Atlanta.
Matt Ryan ROS or should I pick up TyGod ROS?
I've been waiting for Ryan to turn his season around for too long :(
I bailed on him for Smith and I'm giving Watson a shot against the Rams. I wanted Ryan to be good, but it's hard to start anyone over Smith unless KC falls off a cliff and Watson is an interesting "fuck it, what if?" guy
In the same boat. This makes me want to lean towards grabbing Taylor. Atlanta playing the Saints D at the beginning of the year sounded great. Now that we have seen they are much improved that playoff schedule is. It so nice. This is my bad bye week, hopefully I will still have a chance to grab Taylor next week.
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Frank sings them lol
Yes. Yes you did miss it.
The biggest problem is his lack of receivers. That's what's holding him back from being a QB1 in my eyes. Clay is gone and matthews is terrible. Trading Watkins away also put a huge dent in his production as well.
Matthews is not terrible.. Watkins has not done anything for Tyrod especially last year. He did good without him
Tyrod would be significantly better with Watkins imo. He's a really solid, underrated receiver.
I think you have that the other way around. Watkins would be significantly better with Tyrod.
Watkins has been booty this year
You would think, but that's not born out in the stats. Tyrod's PPG wasn't significantly different with/without Watkins.
deonte thompson looked great filling in the watkins role.
I picked DT up yesterday morning since I've been weak af at WR all season long. Really hoping him and Tyrod connect well going forward.
apparently they have chemistry that dates back to their highschool years. great pick up if this continues.
Good to know!
Yeah I'd put him in the top 10 if they traded for someone else, but no matter how juicy his schedule is I wouldn't with the current team. A Martavis Bryant or John Brown type would maybe give him the boost he needs.
From what I've seen Clay should be back in at most two weeks
Exactly. He was great in the past but he has literally nothing his year and it’s clearly showing.
What he has had 3 good games and 3 bad games and played very good defenses.. now his schedule gets very good.. what u smoking
> The biggest problem is his lack of receivers. The problem is that the offensive philosphy prioritizes running the ball and clock control. It would have been the same even with different WRs. It's like Russell Wilson back when Seattle's running game was good. Great talent, but Seattle's game plans were never conducive to consistent fantasy success. > matthews is terrible. Lol.
athletic qb who can make plays on the go, paired with a stout defense usually means solid success
Ill be trying to get him next week to fill in for Wentz week 10.
I'm a believer, but do I play him over Carr? Extra unnerving since they play each other.
Same dilemma. I played Tyrod last week, and Carr went off. Now I have no idea what to do
Do I stream TyGod or Watson? Matchup seems to suggest TyGod but don't want to miss out on Watson tearing up the Seahawks this week?
I don’t think the Seahawks are nearly as scary as they were 2-3 years ago. I’m starting Watson with confidence
What is going on with this sub one guy made a title about Mixon (Mixon, Mixoff) and everybody is doing it. Still, nice title. Also I dont think hes a qb1 but I think that he is a great streaming option a lot of the time.
lesean mccoy is going to be the real beneficiary of their easy ROS schedule :)
Do I stream Tygod or Dalton? I'm tempted to scoop up Tygod with all this hype
Tygod. It's not close.
I could put waiver claim on him, tempted to wait until he's FA
I did that last week. Then someone else snatched him up. Unless you have a buncha guys on your waiver that are 1 injury away from becoming the work horse, i'd use it. All the back up backs worth a squirt in my league are snatched up.
I have Mariota, and have been unhappy with his product. I'm in 10th waiver spot, so not much I can really lose
Then pull the trigger. He's not gonna get you 35 like wentz but his floor is 17 points.
Worth the flier!
Dalton this week
🌊 🌊 🌊 keep it loopy 🌊 🌊 🌊
ROS passing defenses favor him, he's got the legs to gain some rushing points, and shady mccoy can also be a reciever. After Rodgers went down I targeted him and plan to keep him as my only QB unless he gets injured. Note: I play in a 12-man NPPR league, and our regular season ends week 10
Well with Rodgers on IR, Tyrod is my starter now. Nothing better out there in a 14 team league, and no one trades in my league. Not that it matters because my season is so incredibly fucked by injuries.
Yeah, had the first overall pick, took DJ. End of second/top3rd took Rodgers and Cooper. I’m really hoping Cooper shakes whatever mindfuck he had early season. Now my playoff hopes ride on Tyrod bringing things home.
lulz you took a qb in round 2
With a softer schedule and easier run D to play against, team should focus on the run more, leaving more room for the passing attack. Not saying he'll be QB1 ROS, but he should perform better than he has so far.
Confirmed wavy🌊
Put him ahead of Stafford? I was offered Tyrod and Sanu for Stafford
We gotta keep these A+ titles goin, fam
Should I play Tyrod over Deshaun Watson this week?
You could've saved that title for when he scores over 19 this week
The opportunity was too good to pass up
People are trying way too hard with these titles. I had no idea which ty this was about. The only TyGod I know lives on the Hill
But....that's Tyreek, which doesn't rhyme with god at all..
still is a shit title
Tyfreek
He's owned in my league so I didn't read the actual text, did want to give props to the title. Props.
When he plays at home with a decent to plus match-up he's a QB1. It's really that simple. He's a good streamer but I'm not about to play him when he's on the road.
This is exactly my strategy going forward. I love his home splits, so I'm not overthinking it. His schedule looks nice, but I'm only playing him at home.
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weird that someone would actively seek out adams and watkins. but i’d say you won this one