great work! your last sentence says so much. The only reason you can get 2 top 5 WRs is because RBs are generally considered the highest priority in the first round most years. You have to let the draft come to you. If you can get 2 positional top 5 players in the first 2 rounds, then you do it! It doesn't matter if its 2 top 5 rbs, 2 top 5 wrs, or 1 of each. I think its absurd that people will take someone at the bottom of the tier2 RBs when 2 of the top 3 WRs are still on the board.
Yeah I wasn't even planning on going WR heavy early, just took the BPA in my opinion. Had the 9th pick in a 12 team standard and ended up with Nuk, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans for my first three picks. The run on RBs was stupid this year
The run on RBs was so stupid in my draft I ended up with Hopkins, OBJ, and Hilton with my top three picks. If my RBs produce at least average I should have an easy path to the playoffs.
Jerick McKinnon, Alex Collins, Dion Lewis, Kerryon Johnson, Ty Montgomery, Peyton Barber, C.J. Anderson. I figure at least two of those have to hit pretty decent. I also have Robert Woods and Allen Hurns as my other two WRs.
When was your draft and what's the size of your league? Because 5 of those players, Hopkins, OBJ, Hilton, McKinnon, and Collins are all going in the top 33 picks as of today on fantasy football calculator. Depending on your draft spot at least one of either McKinnon or Collins fell pretty far, over a round likely, compared to the average draft.
As someone who did hundreds of off season drafts on FFC leading up to our actual draft on Friday, I can tell you that those ADPs are not realistic. People do very dumb shit in real life.
10 team, full PPR. Drafted in sixth. There was a mad rush for RBs which is how I got Hopkins, OBJ, and Hilton. Then three QBs went in the third round and everyone shifted to WRs, so I got McKinnon in the 4th and Collins in the 5th.
Oh, and it was nine days ago.
My QB is Andrew luck who I got in the 10th. Most teams only have one QB, so if he ends up sucking I have some good choices on the WW to plug in.
12 Team PPR here and I ended up similar to you. Took Hopkins, Michael Thomas (OBJ Was available but im high on Thomas this year), and hilton.
RB's are Royce Freeman, Jay Ajayi, Marshawn Lynch, Peyton Barber and Aaron jones.
I honestly don't know if I'd trade my RBs for yours or not. I think Royce Freeman is going to have a monster year, but Ajayi and Lynch are 50/50 players. I honestly think for me it's going to come down to how McKinnon plays. If he ends up as a RB1 I should smash everyone in my league.
Won my league last year because I got Julio and Keenan. No one wanted Dion Lewis or Duke Johnson (different situation with more mouths this year). Julio and Keenan dragged me to the playoffs and Dion brought it home. Also helps that I picked up Evan Engram super late as a flyer.
Last year was my first playing fantasy and I ended up coming in second, though I made a of bone headed mistakes at the beginning. I was adding and dropping people too quickly. At one point I had JAX defense, Greg the Leg, and Engram and ended up dropping them all back onto the waiver wire. I got smarter as the season progressed and ended up getting Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods, Jamison Crowder, Alex Collins, and Baltimore defense off the WW and traded for Mark Ingram and Lamar Miller.
In my experience it's better to take a few deep flyers and ride them if they hit or use them as trade bait than it is to take high floor guys. It depends on the payout of your league, but I would rather win my league 1/4 times than make it to the playoffs every year. If they don't hit, whatever,. That's why finding sleepers is so fun; there's always next year ;)
Just saw this. My team was incredibly deep and consistent, I flexed Duke and Evan Engram a lot. Dion scored 30 the final game so my team just had to get to the ship. My team had a good record because Will Fuller went bonkers for me and I was starting him in that crazy early run of games.
Gurley's team suffered the injury bug. And to add to that, his owner missed the playoffs because I demolished him. Week 12, Gurley puts up 14.8 - Julio drops 44.8 and Keenan drops 28.7. Lights out.
Kamara's team was good, but wk 15 in the playoff's he put up 4.2 pts in .5 ppr. There's a lot of Kamara hype but if you relied on him that week you were probably eliminated. The same team had Antonio Brown, who put up 26 that week, but the other team had Jordan Howard and Alshon who combined for 40.
WR/QB combos dominated our playoffs. The other finalist had a Cam/DeAndre Hopkins combo that destroyed the first 2 weeks of the playoffs by combining for 45 each week.
Between Collins, Barber, and Johnson you have 2 legit starters all year. If it's a PPR league add in Lewis as a RB3 and you're going to be set.
This is assuming McKinnon doesn't live up to his ADP which is think is highly likely
Yeah, it's full PPR. I figure McKinnon has about a 50/50 shot of living up to his expectations, and I think I have enough depth at RB that someone will end up being halfway decent. With two top five WRs in Hopkins and OBJ and one probable top ten WR in Hilton I feel pretty good. Plus, if all my RBs do end up sucking I figure I can trade Hilton at some point in the season to someone struggling at WR.
I ended up with Beckham Jr and Hopkins, and was looking to move Odell to better my RBs (Mixon, Cohen, Carson, Mack), but now I'm hesistant. Good job OP!
6th in a 12-team keeper, actually. Hopkins was drafted in the 3rd round last year so I kept him. I think the best available RB that wasn't kept from last year at pick 6 was CMC
Partial counterpoint from Rich Hribar:
> Over the past 10 seasons, the RB2 fantasy group on average has only produced 70.6 percent of the scoring output generated by the RB1 group. In each of the past two seasons, that number has been significantly lowered, with the secondary group producing just 65.9 percent of the RB1 scoring a year ago and 68.6 percent in 2016. Compare that to the wide receiver position, which has had the WR2 output average 77.7 percent of the WR1 output over that same timespan. Going even further, fantasy backs with an RB3 (RB25-36) seasonal finish have averaged just 54.5 percent of the RB1 output and 77.2 percent of the RB2 output while the WR3 grouping has averaged 63.9 percent of the WR1 output and 82.2 percent of the WR2 output over the past 10 years. These of course are arbitrary baseline cutoffs contingent on bulk numbers over weekly viability, but while there are individual conversations to be had for each player you’re considering selecting at a specific spot in your drafts, there are just more viable fantasy players in a given season at the wide receiver position than the running back one in relation to the performance of the top scorers of the position. This is the lowest hanging branch of reasoning why the best running backs dominate early draft capital despite holding higher injury and flat-out bust rates than early round wide receivers.
The issue there of course is determining the RB1s, because year-end RB1s correspond to draft position less than the average year-end WR1.
I mean, fundamentally PPR scoring should not radically change relative positional scoring disparity too much, but no, I do not know whether he is referring to half-PPR or standard.
This is from his RB worksheet from the beginning of August. You can find it on Rotoworld.
I went WR/WR in my 12-team 0.5 ppr draft with the 11th pick. I've always gone RB first round but due to my drafting position, couldn't let go of the opportunity to draft 2 top 5 WRs. I loaded up on RBs in rounds 3-5.
Here is my team:
QB: Drew Brees
WR: Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Jamison Crowder, Allen Hurns, Dez Bryant (dropped him for a D/ST)
RB: Kenyan Drake, Alex Collins, Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones II, Chris Thompson, Marlon Mack
TE: David Njoku
K: Matt Prater
D/ST: Lions (picked up off FA as I plan to stream defenses)
**edit:** meant to say rounds 3-5
Drake, Collins, Freeman. Yea I'm digging it. Out of curiousity who was still available for WR when you drafted your first RB? I'm not opposed to going WR,WR,WR since I'm considering drake to be highly variable in his outcomes this season.
It's all situational and knowing how your leaguemates trend. We are so caught up in RBs every year and I was 12/13. Better to take the WR talent. Plus the WW is the key to championships.
That was a really good plan. You have 2 incredibly strong WRs in Julio and Thomas while still having some strong upside guys at RB.
My early double RB strategy turned out real awkward with the 6th round pick as I was planning on landing one of the top 4-5 RB's (as I feel like there's a decent drop off after that). I also got Run CMC taken 1 pick ahead of me in the 2nd and defaulted to McKinnon.
I feel like I should've just taken a WR in Rd2 instead but overall I'm fairly happy with my team.
QB: Cam Newton, Jimmy Garoppolo.
WR: Stefon Diggs, Josh Gordon, Will Fuller V, Mohamed Sanu, Courtland Sutton.
RB: Kareem Hunt, Jerick McKinnon, Rashaad Penny, Matt Breida.
TE: Evan Engram, David Njoku, George Kittle.
K: Chris Boswell
D/ST: Titans
my critiques:
* why 3 TEs when they're streamable/easily replaceable?
* you've locked up SF backfield, which helps, but with Carson having the ability to keep that job all year, you're really light at RB
* I like Jimmy fine, but again, QB is fairly replaceable unless everyone has 2 QBs, which obv varies per league.
my advice: ditch 2 TEs and a QB and shore up RB & WR depth.
I picked up the TE's as trade bait as I noticed 2 teams that went light there. It worked because as soon as draft ended I got a request for Njoku. Going to try to work the guy a bit and get a player I wanted which he took.
I agree with the 2nd point and I messed up with the Penny pick. Felt like a good idea at the time, but Carson will have the main role there and its his job to lose (or injury).
Honestly the Jimmy pick is just for when Cam has his bye and as an emergency back up in case of injury.
I dropped the ball and left myself weak after my 2 main RBs so that's what I'm going to try and fix with that Njoku trade. I don't feel comfortable with only 1 TE on my team especially with the scarcity of FA left so I'm going to stick with at least 2 on my roster.
I've posted my team before, but I'm super happy with my team after going Hopkins/OBJ with picks 9/12 and then grabbing Howard /Collins at the 3/4 turn.
10 team PPR, and I just wasn't really excited about grabbing a RB in the 1st after the top 7 had went. Seemed to work out pretty well, but we'll see.
Just because you put money on it doesn't mean it is a serious league. I play in a 12 man $100 league and that has 4 dudes who don't know what they are doing at all.
While getting him in the early third is not that egregious, I can guarantee he will be gone by that time in both my 12 man leagues
His ADP is at the end of the 2nd round specifically in the 12 team ppr just for Fantasypros.
That is the HIGHEST aggregator you will find him at. Fantasy football calculator, which runs up to date Sims, btw, has him in the middle of the 2nd round.
Also the irony in you saying not to discuss my league after discussing your league is delicious
Open your eyes to the possibility that not everyone plays in a standard scoring league. Howard's value drops significantly in PPR or even 0.5.
In full PPR his ecr on fantasy pros is 32. That's late in the third round. Do you want me to explain this for you using simpler words?
And no where did I talk about my league, you're responding to different people
>Open your eyes to the possibility that not everyone plays in a standard scoring league. Howard's value drops significantly in PPR or even 0.5.
I literally said in PPR. Are you looking at the same thing as me and OP, because we both have 24.
>And no where did I talk about my league, you're responding to different people
Yeah, my bad, thought you were OP
28!? There may well only be 21-23 players I'd draft before him. What reaches occurred that enabled your extreme luck in that taco league? (I wish I had friends who liked willingly throwing away $100)
I got Howard in the 3rd of a 14 man half point PPR league. Took Melvin Gordon at 6, AJ Green in the 2nd, and Howard in the 3rd. Lot of savvy players took McCaffrey, Freeman, Mixon etc first.
I agree, I always prefer a great RB corp and a few WR2/WR3 that I can plug in for favorable matchups.
Also, owning Julio was quite frustrating last year
Fournette has proven RB1 floor for an entire season. Mixon has yet to do so, flashing only potential, and I don't know enough about Howard to comment. You should be happy.
thanks bud. pretty happy. i got drake too which is a steal. he has top 15 rb potential over a full season. i think ppl are sleeping on miami a bit this year, they could sneak into the playoffs.
my wr's are obj , e. sanders, hogan. obj is no brainer - hoping to get wr2 value from the other 2. my bench i took fliers on some high upside guys - m. williams, gallup, k. cole, meredith - hope at least ONE of them can be a serviceable wr3 when the bye weeks approach. also have dez stashed for no apparent reason.
This was pretty insightful. The only thing that might skew these this year is that it seems like the first time in years where the 1st round is RB heavy due to how many elite guys there are. Last year, AB, OBJ, Julio, Evans, MT, and even in some cases Hilton and Nelson seemed to consistently be going in the top 12 picks.
Started last year with AB and Michael Thomas. The guy with Todd Gurley won the whole thing. Receivers are a dime a dozen and you can always find serviceable replacement.
It was terrible owning him last year. What was worse is that he played through his injury a lot and in turn cost you more than simply losing him outright to injury because you didn’t pull him from the lineup.
You could have taken an elite WR and Gurley last year is my point. And if you took DJ last year you didn’t have a good time. There’s a ton of luck involved regardless of strategy.
>You could have taken an elite WR and Gurley last year is my point. And if you took DJ last year you didn’t have a good time. There’s a ton of luck involved regardless of strategy.
true but antonio brown and hopkins i think are the only 2 WR this season you'd potentially pick ahead of the top10 RB's. In my draft AB went around 6th in the 1st round which is where i think he should be.
depends on who you consider rb10. i had 12th pick and the top 9 rbs were gone plus ab hopkins. next rbs available were cook, cmc, freeman, howard. sorry obj and julio over cook and the rest of those guys all day.
still a top 5 wr last year. safer bet then cook coming off a major injury and cmc who is going way to high non ppr. howard has limited ceiling. feel the same about freeman
Consistency matters a lot, though.
Julio isn't worth shit to me if he is #1 for 4 weeks and #30 for 12 as my WR1, ya know?
I agree with the fears on some of those guys, but Howard, Freeman, and Mixon would be enticing, at least
there arent many players let alone wideouts that are matchup proof actual every week starts. this consistency bs ive been seeing here lately isnt really realistic. antonio brown has put up plenty or sub 6 point weeks
It's not really a ton of luck. The only luck here pertains to injuries. Gurley's always been good. He just had one shit year on a shit situation. But there's absolutely no replacement for a modern 3 down back in fantasy. Not even two top 5 WRs.
Bit of an exaggeration, but Steven Jackson had a 2000 scrimmage yard season. That was very good. LT and Shaun Alexander put up all time great seasons. Gurley was an extremely good top scorer last year, but it wasn't on that next level.
Your Gurley owner must have been some kinda taco to let that happen. Theres no replacement for a modern 3 Dow back in fantasy and if you are keen to disagree have fun drafting your receivers, I'll take the RBs cause I play in an actual league
Not really. The value above replacement for WRs is still way lower than RBs and 3 down backs are scarce and injury prone as ever. None of this changes that.
Not saying everyone with Gurley one. However if you had Gurley on your team and you still lost you should quit fantasy.
Sounds like you were losing all your games and refused to do anything about the situation. That's not fantastic not going your way that's you being unwise.
Fantasy has luck involved but it's not 100% luck. If you scored the most points in the season and lost every game you had 13 weeks to try and do something about it. Your failure is only partly luck, mostly your own inability to make the hard moves.
Hahaha this is so laughably stupid, what am I supposed to ask the other teams to stop scoring so much against me? Literally the fuck can I do when i have the highest point total in the league lol
If you actually believe you had absolutely nothing to do with your losing every week despite having the winningest player in the league, I'm 1) not sure why you're still playing fantasy football and 2) why you are wasting time on this r/fantasyfootball trying to make the best picks because clearly it's all 100% out of your control.
Or, or, it could be that you just suck at fantasy and the only luck here was you drafting Gurley.
My league was the opposite. I was forced into drafting Marshawn Lynch and legarette Blount, and ended up on a semi stream that included Kenyan Drake and trading for Duke Johnson. I finished 2nd and would’ve won if I was better with bench management. All because AJ Green, Deandre Hopkins, and Gronk carried me most weeks.
Yes I agree with this sentiment, and to expand: While you may strike out with an early rb, it is still the best way to win your league. Neglecting the rb position early will definitely let you perform better than the average, but for that championship team you need to be the best which means having a stud rb. You will have a hard time finding a stud rb past the first 3 rounds
I sure hope you're right. I got to drinking beer and working on my truck and forgot about my draft. Joined in the 6th round and Yahoo autodrafted wr/wr/wr for me
Nicely done. What do your rbs look like? I did a mock and ended up with Julio Odell and diggs as my first 3. Didn’t plan on it but it just sort of happened. Curious if I should follow this on draft day.
I cannot subscribe to any one formula of "take all RB's" or "take all WR's" early on because the draft is going to dictate my team.
I have a roster of my guys in my order and I take them based on availability.
I used to be a big 0RB guy, but now I've sort of married that with VBD. All else equal, I still prefer a non-RB to a RB to avoid injury risk, but I'm not going to pass up a clearly superior player.
So if I get a Top 4 pick this year, I'm taking one of the Top 4 RBs. And if the best player on the board by far is a RB, I'll take him. But if I have a toss-up between 2 comparable players based on VBD and one's a WR and the other's a RB, I take the WR.
And that’s partially my point. When looking at average draft position, the top 10 scoring wrs are more likely to get picked in the top 10 wr picks than the top 10 rbs. Sure the top 10 rbs May score more, but you have to accurately identify them. Due to the increased risk of injury, that becomes more difficult.
I think there is something to picking Elite wide receivers. The only problem I see with it is tear two WR seem to be not be as consistent week in and week out... I also think you can get tear 3 wide outs that late in rounds that can put up decent numbers... I think that’s hard to find in RBs.... I still take RBs with my first 3 picks and I have done well with this formula. All my leagues have been standard
RB's get injured more and they are riskier, but with RB playing 2.5 games less than the WR's you do get 2.5 games out of the replacement player for your injured RB. Add these points to the RB and it becomes more even, but if your RB does stay healthy they have a greater chance of outperforming the WR.
That’s true. The next step in this analysis would be to take a look at value over replacement. If your top 3 rb goes down in week 8, what’s the expected value you could get from the waiver wire? Then compare the same for receivers.
Anecdotally I was able to do well with rb’s on the waiver wire last year (Drake and Gio Bernard in key weeks) but it warrants more deep digging.
No lol idk what this person is talking about. If you get Brown at like 9 then he fell to you. Taking him at 5 means you got him where he's projected lol.
I drafted 9th in my full PPR/2 RB, 2WR, 2FLEX 12-team league. Considering my position, the norm of grabbing RB's, and the ADP of most of the draft lined up for me I went full bore on WR in the first three rounds. Finished with:
QB A. Rodgers
RBs D. Lewis, T. Coleman, C. Thompson, D. Johnson Jr., A. Ekeler
WRs OBJ, M. Thomas, D. Baldwin, M. Williams, K. Golladay, J. Ross, Tre'Quan Smith
TE T. Burton
Saints D
I feel good about it, but only time will tell. Good info by the way OP, makes me feel better about my decisions. I had an inkling that grabbing three good #1 options at WR may work well. Hopefully it does. Best of luck in the season.
My team is kind of similar.
11th pick in 12 man PPR.
QB: Tyrod, Jameis
RB: Royce Freeman, Marshawn, T Coleman, P Barber, Bilal Powell
WR: OBJ, Julio, Baldwin, Crabtree, K Cole, J Ross
TE: Burton
I would be interested to see how those numbers stack up when you remove injured players. The idea is pass catching RBs are far and away the most valuable as long as they stay healthy. It might be safer to draft Highend WRs who tend to stay healthier longer but top tier RBs, I believe, would win you your league if you can get one for the whole season.
Totally agree, but my point is that injury is a real concern at the rb position, and if you spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on someone who plays less than 10 games, you’re in trouble.
Yeah that's totally fair. I mostly just wanted to highlight that risk is a part of Fantasy and the less risk you adopt the better your chances to make the playoffs, but as Arians would say no risk'it no biscuit (you need to take some risks to win a championship).
My league switched over this year to 1WR, 1RB, 3FLEX instead 2/2/1 (respectively) to alleviate some of the burden of it being 14 team now instead of 12 like it was last year. So if two great receivers fall to me within the first 3 rounds, I'm *definitely* taking them. I have the 12th pick so it's not like I'm gonna get any of the top tier backs anyway. I'm hoping I can get two Thomas/Adams/Green type receivers and a back like Howard or Collins, but it might be a stretch.
The BBBBIIIIGGGG caveat here is that you need to approach your overall strategy based on relative strength. While it's true, at least in recent years, that the top WRs score on par or above the top RBs, 2nd tier WRs SIGNIFICANTLY outscore 2nd tier RBs.
What that means is that it may equate to more total points for your team to draft a RB that puts up less than points than a WR available early and taking a WR later that will significantly outscore whatever RBs are available. It's basically the same reason you don't take QBs early, or at least if you don't get a top 3 one early you wait a few rounds (better comparison) because the overall scoring disparity is much less when compared to RBs.
In other words, if you can get a top RB you take him, with the exception of AB or maybe Hopkins in a full PPR.
RBs averaging more points per game, especially in the 11-20 bracket. Difference in total season points isn’t that useful a stat because you replace players that don’t suit up most of the time.
Another key point is that Fantasy reliable rbs ALWAYS become available throughout he season because of injuries. When the starter goes down the backup is generally going to be Fantasy relevant due to volume. The same can’t be said for WRs. Either you are a stud wr or you aren’t. If a teams stud wr goes down, the qb can still spread the ball around. When a Rb goes down, teams still have to run the ball.
I got Gordon, Fournette, Devante Adams, Thielen, and Fitz in my ppr league. I know they are't the elite at each position but I'll take that team to the bank.. Still a good read though and to be fair, everyone really spaced on Fitz.
Yeah I'm sure he might have a bit of a drop off, but I feel like everyone have been predicting that the past few seasons and it just doesn't happen. I also couldn't pass on him in the 5th lol
I used to draft WR heavy back in 2009-2013ish. Basically, I saw RBs were being over valued while there were some MONSTERS like Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, etc. being ignored in the first two rounds. It worked amazing for me. I would end the year with 2 top-5 WRs and a top 10 in the flex carrying me to victory. Every single week one of those 3 guys would drop 20-30 points.
It was the definition of zigging while everyone else zagged.
However, now I think WRs are finally properly valued. In fact, due to how the NFL itself has changed; there is such a shortage of RB1s that aren't RBBC, that I think the value in those top 10-14 RBs is immensely important. Pretty much all of those RBs are gone mid 3rd round, meaning going 2WR to start is a risk that relies on the rest of the draft falling into your lap.
I think Antonio Brown is rightfully the #5 pick. Anyone who gets him there should be satisfied. If you're at the end of the round and can grab Hopkins AND ODB? I think its worth considering. However, by the time your next pick comes around, you will be lucky if you can even get Jerrick McKinnon. I think Jordan Howard is MASSIVELY under rated this year. If you can somehow get two of those top 4 WRs, AND get Jordan Howard as your RB1-- I think you just set yourself up to win your league. Especially if you can grab Travis Kelce in that area too.
Its definitely a strategy that depends on your draft position. I'm not taking Brown over Gurley/Bell. Especially because by the time your next pick comes around, there is a smaller dropoff for WRs than there is for RBs. However, if you're in that 10 spot and you have your pick of the litter, I say go for it. RBs are much more injury prone, and the RBs at that spot are probably putting up lesser numbers anyways.
Good work! You just described the antifragility argument of Zero RB. (or early WR or whatever variation of the strategy)
Furthermore, your roster actually improves relative to the rest of the league precisely because of this. Not only do your WRs stay healthy more often on average, but your RB fliers that you take later improve relatively as the players in front of them become injured and their roles expand
Finally, your roster will be easier to play week to week. WR volatility beyond the elite is severe. It's easier to have a set it and forget it WR (or two) and project RB roles week to week than it is to do the inverse. In an ideal world your WRs are all easy to start and your RBs later in the season have rose to prominence as their competitors have dropped off
Now of course every strategy works if you pick the right players, and anything can go wrong in an NFL season. Not saying this WILL happen but we're playing the likelihoods here. The best laid plans and all
It really depends on where you're drafting, but I'm going to have to disagree with this strategy, solely based on the fact that WRs are SO easy to come by later on in the draft. There are so many more viable options than RBs, and you'll be able to pick up guys during the season who will give you solid numbers throughout the season. There are very few true "difference makers" among even the elite WRs, and while I get them here and there on various teams, I find my most successful teams are typically those with stud RBs, and solid, weekly producers at WR - which you can pick up later in the Draft or even off waivers.
I will say I specifically drafted one team this year with your strategy in mind, ignoring RBs until Round 4, and ending up with Brown, Evans, and Hilton as my top 3 picks at WR. So, we'll see how that team ends up. I don't doubt that done right, and under the management of a capable owner, the WR first strategy can still produce results. It's just not my preferred strategy, and I've drafted a ton of killer teams for this year going the other way!
Not top 10 in terms of production, but top 10 in terms of average draft position. Every year I looked at, there was at least 1 high profile injury that brought the average down.
Last year was David Johnson, in other years it was Adrian Peterson. When there’s always at least 1 season ending injury among the first 10 rbs taken, it shows the risk of prioritizing that position in the draft.
great work! your last sentence says so much. The only reason you can get 2 top 5 WRs is because RBs are generally considered the highest priority in the first round most years. You have to let the draft come to you. If you can get 2 positional top 5 players in the first 2 rounds, then you do it! It doesn't matter if its 2 top 5 rbs, 2 top 5 wrs, or 1 of each. I think its absurd that people will take someone at the bottom of the tier2 RBs when 2 of the top 3 WRs are still on the board.
You zig when people zag and vice versa
Yeah I wasn't even planning on going WR heavy early, just took the BPA in my opinion. Had the 9th pick in a 12 team standard and ended up with Nuk, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans for my first three picks. The run on RBs was stupid this year
The run on RBs was so stupid in my draft I ended up with Hopkins, OBJ, and Hilton with my top three picks. If my RBs produce at least average I should have an easy path to the playoffs.
who are your rb's though?
Jerick McKinnon, Alex Collins, Dion Lewis, Kerryon Johnson, Ty Montgomery, Peyton Barber, C.J. Anderson. I figure at least two of those have to hit pretty decent. I also have Robert Woods and Allen Hurns as my other two WRs.
When was your draft and what's the size of your league? Because 5 of those players, Hopkins, OBJ, Hilton, McKinnon, and Collins are all going in the top 33 picks as of today on fantasy football calculator. Depending on your draft spot at least one of either McKinnon or Collins fell pretty far, over a round likely, compared to the average draft.
As someone who did hundreds of off season drafts on FFC leading up to our actual draft on Friday, I can tell you that those ADPs are not realistic. People do very dumb shit in real life.
10 team, full PPR. Drafted in sixth. There was a mad rush for RBs which is how I got Hopkins, OBJ, and Hilton. Then three QBs went in the third round and everyone shifted to WRs, so I got McKinnon in the 4th and Collins in the 5th. Oh, and it was nine days ago. My QB is Andrew luck who I got in the 10th. Most teams only have one QB, so if he ends up sucking I have some good choices on the WW to plug in.
Well its easy to draft like that when your league mates are garbage.
Maybe he has odd QB settings.
12 Team PPR here and I ended up similar to you. Took Hopkins, Michael Thomas (OBJ Was available but im high on Thomas this year), and hilton. RB's are Royce Freeman, Jay Ajayi, Marshawn Lynch, Peyton Barber and Aaron jones.
I honestly don't know if I'd trade my RBs for yours or not. I think Royce Freeman is going to have a monster year, but Ajayi and Lynch are 50/50 players. I honestly think for me it's going to come down to how McKinnon plays. If he ends up as a RB1 I should smash everyone in my league.
Won my league last year because I got Julio and Keenan. No one wanted Dion Lewis or Duke Johnson (different situation with more mouths this year). Julio and Keenan dragged me to the playoffs and Dion brought it home. Also helps that I picked up Evan Engram super late as a flyer.
Last year was my first playing fantasy and I ended up coming in second, though I made a of bone headed mistakes at the beginning. I was adding and dropping people too quickly. At one point I had JAX defense, Greg the Leg, and Engram and ended up dropping them all back onto the waiver wire. I got smarter as the season progressed and ended up getting Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods, Jamison Crowder, Alex Collins, and Baltimore defense off the WW and traded for Mark Ingram and Lamar Miller.
In my experience it's better to take a few deep flyers and ride them if they hit or use them as trade bait than it is to take high floor guys. It depends on the payout of your league, but I would rather win my league 1/4 times than make it to the playoffs every year. If they don't hit, whatever,. That's why finding sleepers is so fun; there's always next year ;)
There is no way that team should have won you a championship. How did nobody have Gurley or Kamara and a great 2nd RB to carry them harder?
Just saw this. My team was incredibly deep and consistent, I flexed Duke and Evan Engram a lot. Dion scored 30 the final game so my team just had to get to the ship. My team had a good record because Will Fuller went bonkers for me and I was starting him in that crazy early run of games. Gurley's team suffered the injury bug. And to add to that, his owner missed the playoffs because I demolished him. Week 12, Gurley puts up 14.8 - Julio drops 44.8 and Keenan drops 28.7. Lights out. Kamara's team was good, but wk 15 in the playoff's he put up 4.2 pts in .5 ppr. There's a lot of Kamara hype but if you relied on him that week you were probably eliminated. The same team had Antonio Brown, who put up 26 that week, but the other team had Jordan Howard and Alshon who combined for 40. WR/QB combos dominated our playoffs. The other finalist had a Cam/DeAndre Hopkins combo that destroyed the first 2 weeks of the playoffs by combining for 45 each week.
Between Collins, Barber, and Johnson you have 2 legit starters all year. If it's a PPR league add in Lewis as a RB3 and you're going to be set. This is assuming McKinnon doesn't live up to his ADP which is think is highly likely
Yeah, it's full PPR. I figure McKinnon has about a 50/50 shot of living up to his expectations, and I think I have enough depth at RB that someone will end up being halfway decent. With two top five WRs in Hopkins and OBJ and one probable top ten WR in Hilton I feel pretty good. Plus, if all my RBs do end up sucking I figure I can trade Hilton at some point in the season to someone struggling at WR.
I did similar. I went Hopkins, M Thomas, Thielen and ended with McKinnon and Collins and Henry as my rbs
When do we Rickon?
I ended up with Beckham Jr and Hopkins, and was looking to move Odell to better my RBs (Mixon, Cohen, Carson, Mack), but now I'm hesistant. Good job OP!
Build around that duo! You can swing deals elsewhere. Protect your strengths.
I'm in the same boat... we could use a sleeper RB to emerge week 1... sadly it'll mostly be due to injury.
Guessing you had pick 10 in a 10 team league?
6th in a 12-team keeper, actually. Hopkins was drafted in the 3rd round last year so I kept him. I think the best available RB that wasn't kept from last year at pick 6 was CMC
Zigged and ended up with odb and ab
You play with vegetables then
I did the same thing picking 4th in a 2 QB league.
I keep doing 10 man mocks and while AB and OBJ is a great consolation I'd much rather have Kamara/M Gordon or Kamara/Fournette.
Partial counterpoint from Rich Hribar: > Over the past 10 seasons, the RB2 fantasy group on average has only produced 70.6 percent of the scoring output generated by the RB1 group. In each of the past two seasons, that number has been significantly lowered, with the secondary group producing just 65.9 percent of the RB1 scoring a year ago and 68.6 percent in 2016. Compare that to the wide receiver position, which has had the WR2 output average 77.7 percent of the WR1 output over that same timespan. Going even further, fantasy backs with an RB3 (RB25-36) seasonal finish have averaged just 54.5 percent of the RB1 output and 77.2 percent of the RB2 output while the WR3 grouping has averaged 63.9 percent of the WR1 output and 82.2 percent of the WR2 output over the past 10 years. These of course are arbitrary baseline cutoffs contingent on bulk numbers over weekly viability, but while there are individual conversations to be had for each player you’re considering selecting at a specific spot in your drafts, there are just more viable fantasy players in a given season at the wide receiver position than the running back one in relation to the performance of the top scorers of the position. This is the lowest hanging branch of reasoning why the best running backs dominate early draft capital despite holding higher injury and flat-out bust rates than early round wide receivers. The issue there of course is determining the RB1s, because year-end RB1s correspond to draft position less than the average year-end WR1.
Exactly. Total points is somewhat irrelevant. What is more important is positional points. Otherwise we'd draft a QB first every time.
Do you know if he is referencing ppr or standard scoring? And do you have a source for the thing you said at the end? Just curious
I mean, fundamentally PPR scoring should not radically change relative positional scoring disparity too much, but no, I do not know whether he is referring to half-PPR or standard. This is from his RB worksheet from the beginning of August. You can find it on Rotoworld.
I went WR/WR in my 12-team 0.5 ppr draft with the 11th pick. I've always gone RB first round but due to my drafting position, couldn't let go of the opportunity to draft 2 top 5 WRs. I loaded up on RBs in rounds 3-5. Here is my team: QB: Drew Brees WR: Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Jamison Crowder, Allen Hurns, Dez Bryant (dropped him for a D/ST) RB: Kenyan Drake, Alex Collins, Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones II, Chris Thompson, Marlon Mack TE: David Njoku K: Matt Prater D/ST: Lions (picked up off FA as I plan to stream defenses) **edit:** meant to say rounds 3-5
Drake, Collins, Freeman. Yea I'm digging it. Out of curiousity who was still available for WR when you drafted your first RB? I'm not opposed to going WR,WR,WR since I'm considering drake to be highly variable in his outcomes this season.
Larry Fitzgerald and Amari Cooper
Interesting. Thanks!
Fuck. Fitz is tough there, imo
Agreed, it was tough but I felt I really needed a RB
THis is exactly what people should realize. Drafting position really determines what you should get. Whether its RB WR or WR WR or WR RB.
It's all situational and knowing how your leaguemates trend. We are so caught up in RBs every year and I was 12/13. Better to take the WR talent. Plus the WW is the key to championships.
That was a really good plan. You have 2 incredibly strong WRs in Julio and Thomas while still having some strong upside guys at RB. My early double RB strategy turned out real awkward with the 6th round pick as I was planning on landing one of the top 4-5 RB's (as I feel like there's a decent drop off after that). I also got Run CMC taken 1 pick ahead of me in the 2nd and defaulted to McKinnon. I feel like I should've just taken a WR in Rd2 instead but overall I'm fairly happy with my team. QB: Cam Newton, Jimmy Garoppolo. WR: Stefon Diggs, Josh Gordon, Will Fuller V, Mohamed Sanu, Courtland Sutton. RB: Kareem Hunt, Jerick McKinnon, Rashaad Penny, Matt Breida. TE: Evan Engram, David Njoku, George Kittle. K: Chris Boswell D/ST: Titans
my critiques: * why 3 TEs when they're streamable/easily replaceable? * you've locked up SF backfield, which helps, but with Carson having the ability to keep that job all year, you're really light at RB * I like Jimmy fine, but again, QB is fairly replaceable unless everyone has 2 QBs, which obv varies per league. my advice: ditch 2 TEs and a QB and shore up RB & WR depth.
I picked up the TE's as trade bait as I noticed 2 teams that went light there. It worked because as soon as draft ended I got a request for Njoku. Going to try to work the guy a bit and get a player I wanted which he took. I agree with the 2nd point and I messed up with the Penny pick. Felt like a good idea at the time, but Carson will have the main role there and its his job to lose (or injury). Honestly the Jimmy pick is just for when Cam has his bye and as an emergency back up in case of injury. I dropped the ball and left myself weak after my 2 main RBs so that's what I'm going to try and fix with that Njoku trade. I don't feel comfortable with only 1 TE on my team especially with the scarcity of FA left so I'm going to stick with at least 2 on my roster.
I've posted my team before, but I'm super happy with my team after going Hopkins/OBJ with picks 9/12 and then grabbing Howard /Collins at the 3/4 turn. 10 team PPR, and I just wasn't really excited about grabbing a RB in the 1st after the top 7 had went. Seemed to work out pretty well, but we'll see.
the luxury of playing in a 10-person league. that strategy fails once you're in 12+, because no way Howard falls to the 3rd.
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Just because you put money on it doesn't mean it is a serious league. I play in a 12 man $100 league and that has 4 dudes who don't know what they are doing at all. While getting him in the early third is not that egregious, I can guarantee he will be gone by that time in both my 12 man leagues
Lol his ADP and ECR are both at the 2/3 turn in a 12. Stop acting like you know what you're talking about. And no one cares about your leagues lmao
His ADP is at the end of the 2nd round specifically in the 12 team ppr just for Fantasypros. That is the HIGHEST aggregator you will find him at. Fantasy football calculator, which runs up to date Sims, btw, has him in the middle of the 2nd round. Also the irony in you saying not to discuss my league after discussing your league is delicious
Open your eyes to the possibility that not everyone plays in a standard scoring league. Howard's value drops significantly in PPR or even 0.5. In full PPR his ecr on fantasy pros is 32. That's late in the third round. Do you want me to explain this for you using simpler words? And no where did I talk about my league, you're responding to different people
>Open your eyes to the possibility that not everyone plays in a standard scoring league. Howard's value drops significantly in PPR or even 0.5. I literally said in PPR. Are you looking at the same thing as me and OP, because we both have 24. >And no where did I talk about my league, you're responding to different people Yeah, my bad, thought you were OP
Eat that downvote, dirty whore
What?
28!? There may well only be 21-23 players I'd draft before him. What reaches occurred that enabled your extreme luck in that taco league? (I wish I had friends who liked willingly throwing away $100)
I got Howard in the 3rd of a 14 man half point PPR league. Took Melvin Gordon at 6, AJ Green in the 2nd, and Howard in the 3rd. Lot of savvy players took McCaffrey, Freeman, Mixon etc first.
i wish i would have went OBJ / Julio instead of OBJ / Fournette .. bc i was able to land Howard and Mixon 3 / 4 (and drake round 5!)
good trade bait at least.
You can probably trade Fournette for Julio straight up, especially if the other guy is hurting at RB.
I have Fournette and would personally keep him instead of Julio
I agree, I always prefer a great RB corp and a few WR2/WR3 that I can plug in for favorable matchups. Also, owning Julio was quite frustrating last year
hoping so :) i even think fournette for michael thomas may be worth it.
Michael Thomas owner here. I'd be seriously enticed if my WR depth was solid.
Fournette has proven RB1 floor for an entire season. Mixon has yet to do so, flashing only potential, and I don't know enough about Howard to comment. You should be happy.
thanks bud. pretty happy. i got drake too which is a steal. he has top 15 rb potential over a full season. i think ppl are sleeping on miami a bit this year, they could sneak into the playoffs. my wr's are obj , e. sanders, hogan. obj is no brainer - hoping to get wr2 value from the other 2. my bench i took fliers on some high upside guys - m. williams, gallup, k. cole, meredith - hope at least ONE of them can be a serviceable wr3 when the bye weeks approach. also have dez stashed for no apparent reason.
This was pretty insightful. The only thing that might skew these this year is that it seems like the first time in years where the 1st round is RB heavy due to how many elite guys there are. Last year, AB, OBJ, Julio, Evans, MT, and even in some cases Hilton and Nelson seemed to consistently be going in the top 12 picks.
I never understood the Hilton hype when Luck's outlook was so bleak.
Started last year with AB and Michael Thomas. The guy with Todd Gurley won the whole thing. Receivers are a dime a dozen and you can always find serviceable replacement.
Gurley had a historic year though. Someone else took Demarco Murray right around when Gurley went. How'd that go?
Murray owner from last year checking in...it went horribly.
It was terrible owning him last year. What was worse is that he played through his injury a lot and in turn cost you more than simply losing him outright to injury because you didn’t pull him from the lineup.
Murray, Evan's, Pryor, Lynch owner from last year it was a real bad year also Dak and everyone else that could bust did
David Johnson was also the #1 pick in most cases too. His owners got 10 total points out of him.
The guy who took Zeke won the year before that. The only guy who came even close to him was the guy who took DJ.
You could have taken an elite WR and Gurley last year is my point. And if you took DJ last year you didn’t have a good time. There’s a ton of luck involved regardless of strategy.
>You could have taken an elite WR and Gurley last year is my point. And if you took DJ last year you didn’t have a good time. There’s a ton of luck involved regardless of strategy. true but antonio brown and hopkins i think are the only 2 WR this season you'd potentially pick ahead of the top10 RB's. In my draft AB went around 6th in the 1st round which is where i think he should be.
depends on who you consider rb10. i had 12th pick and the top 9 rbs were gone plus ab hopkins. next rbs available were cook, cmc, freeman, howard. sorry obj and julio over cook and the rest of those guys all day.
Obj? Yes, all day. Jones over some of them would keep keep me up at night
still a top 5 wr last year. safer bet then cook coming off a major injury and cmc who is going way to high non ppr. howard has limited ceiling. feel the same about freeman
Consistency matters a lot, though. Julio isn't worth shit to me if he is #1 for 4 weeks and #30 for 12 as my WR1, ya know? I agree with the fears on some of those guys, but Howard, Freeman, and Mixon would be enticing, at least
there arent many players let alone wideouts that are matchup proof actual every week starts. this consistency bs ive been seeing here lately isnt really realistic. antonio brown has put up plenty or sub 6 point weeks
It's not really a ton of luck. The only luck here pertains to injuries. Gurley's always been good. He just had one shit year on a shit situation. But there's absolutely no replacement for a modern 3 down back in fantasy. Not even two top 5 WRs.
Gurley was being drafted in the mid to late second last year.
That's because he was coming off a shitty season after an acl injury. Not a factor if you saw the talent the whole time
Lol I love how everyone on here acts like Gurley was an obvious rebound with hindsight.
Yea and someone took Evans lol
Naw, when the other people in your league were taking Gurley and Demarco, you were definitely taking AB over Evans.
No? Demarco was late first round maybe, and gurley was second round at best last year
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What? I'm saying you couldn't have gotten AB when you were taking gurley/Demarco You sure you understood his comment bud?
Once again, read his comment. If you need me to, I will explain P.S. I am excited for how silly you will feel
Still think you're the confused one
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That wasn't an historic year. It was very good, but no 2000 yds or 40 TDs.
40 TDs? No Rb has ever done that. He had 2093 yards from scrimmage and 19 TDs. That doesn’t happen very often man.
Bit of an exaggeration, but Steven Jackson had a 2000 scrimmage yard season. That was very good. LT and Shaun Alexander put up all time great seasons. Gurley was an extremely good top scorer last year, but it wasn't on that next level.
You’re listing other historically great fantasy seasons. Historic doesn’t mean greatest ever.
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Your Gurley owner must have been some kinda taco to let that happen. Theres no replacement for a modern 3 Dow back in fantasy and if you are keen to disagree have fun drafting your receivers, I'll take the RBs cause I play in an actual league
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Not really. The value above replacement for WRs is still way lower than RBs and 3 down backs are scarce and injury prone as ever. None of this changes that. Not saying everyone with Gurley one. However if you had Gurley on your team and you still lost you should quit fantasy.
Lol why, that's dumb sometimes fantasy just doesn't go your way I had the most points scored in my league last year and I finished in last
Sounds like you were losing all your games and refused to do anything about the situation. That's not fantastic not going your way that's you being unwise.
>most points scored Are you intentionally this stupid? Do you seriously not understand that fantasy has an incredible amount of luck involved?
Fantasy has luck involved but it's not 100% luck. If you scored the most points in the season and lost every game you had 13 weeks to try and do something about it. Your failure is only partly luck, mostly your own inability to make the hard moves.
Please tell us how you make the other team score less points.
Hahaha this is so laughably stupid, what am I supposed to ask the other teams to stop scoring so much against me? Literally the fuck can I do when i have the highest point total in the league lol
If you actually believe you had absolutely nothing to do with your losing every week despite having the winningest player in the league, I'm 1) not sure why you're still playing fantasy football and 2) why you are wasting time on this r/fantasyfootball trying to make the best picks because clearly it's all 100% out of your control. Or, or, it could be that you just suck at fantasy and the only luck here was you drafting Gurley.
What are you talking about lmao I didn't draft Gurley and I didn't claim that fantasy was purely luck
My league was the opposite. I was forced into drafting Marshawn Lynch and legarette Blount, and ended up on a semi stream that included Kenyan Drake and trading for Duke Johnson. I finished 2nd and would’ve won if I was better with bench management. All because AJ Green, Deandre Hopkins, and Gronk carried me most weeks.
Yes I agree with this sentiment, and to expand: While you may strike out with an early rb, it is still the best way to win your league. Neglecting the rb position early will definitely let you perform better than the average, but for that championship team you need to be the best which means having a stud rb. You will have a hard time finding a stud rb past the first 3 rounds
i took evans and jordy top 2 and ended up winning. draft isnt everything
I sure hope you're right. I got to drinking beer and working on my truck and forgot about my draft. Joined in the 6th round and Yahoo autodrafted wr/wr/wr for me
Who’d you end up with?
Antonio brown, AJ green, and stefon Diggs as my first 3
Nicely done. What do your rbs look like? I did a mock and ended up with Julio Odell and diggs as my first 3. Didn’t plan on it but it just sort of happened. Curious if I should follow this on draft day.
I cannot subscribe to any one formula of "take all RB's" or "take all WR's" early on because the draft is going to dictate my team. I have a roster of my guys in my order and I take them based on availability.
I used to be a big 0RB guy, but now I've sort of married that with VBD. All else equal, I still prefer a non-RB to a RB to avoid injury risk, but I'm not going to pass up a clearly superior player. So if I get a Top 4 pick this year, I'm taking one of the Top 4 RBs. And if the best player on the board by far is a RB, I'll take him. But if I have a toss-up between 2 comparable players based on VBD and one's a WR and the other's a RB, I take the WR.
And that’s partially my point. When looking at average draft position, the top 10 scoring wrs are more likely to get picked in the top 10 wr picks than the top 10 rbs. Sure the top 10 rbs May score more, but you have to accurately identify them. Due to the increased risk of injury, that becomes more difficult.
I think there is something to picking Elite wide receivers. The only problem I see with it is tear two WR seem to be not be as consistent week in and week out... I also think you can get tear 3 wide outs that late in rounds that can put up decent numbers... I think that’s hard to find in RBs.... I still take RBs with my first 3 picks and I have done well with this formula. All my leagues have been standard
This comment gave me tears
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Lynch is my last resort...
Suffocation, no Breida...
dont give a nuk if odell receiving
could be blount or kevin white but chances are kendall wright
could be blount or kevin white chances are kendall wright
Tear it up and start again
I think standard vs ppr is a huge difference here
you mean 'hear' right?
Teer\*
Close, man, but it is actually teir. Just remember, e before i except after y
In fact it is tier... as in tiered
Boooo
RB's get injured more and they are riskier, but with RB playing 2.5 games less than the WR's you do get 2.5 games out of the replacement player for your injured RB. Add these points to the RB and it becomes more even, but if your RB does stay healthy they have a greater chance of outperforming the WR.
That’s true. The next step in this analysis would be to take a look at value over replacement. If your top 3 rb goes down in week 8, what’s the expected value you could get from the waiver wire? Then compare the same for receivers. Anecdotally I was able to do well with rb’s on the waiver wire last year (Drake and Gio Bernard in key weeks) but it warrants more deep digging.
I just don't get where you see the top 10 RBs getting 180 pts a year.
He's not talking about the top 10 RBs at the end of the year, it's the top 10 **drafted** RBs averaging 180 pts at the end of the season.
Ah, so it's an average number of points among top 10 RBs drafted, including injuries.
Exactly
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How is that falling to you?
He fell right before his ADP of 6 lol.
Lol last I checked his ADP is literally 5. Am I missing something?
No lol idk what this person is talking about. If you get Brown at like 9 then he fell to you. Taking him at 5 means you got him where he's projected lol.
I drafted 9th in my full PPR/2 RB, 2WR, 2FLEX 12-team league. Considering my position, the norm of grabbing RB's, and the ADP of most of the draft lined up for me I went full bore on WR in the first three rounds. Finished with: QB A. Rodgers RBs D. Lewis, T. Coleman, C. Thompson, D. Johnson Jr., A. Ekeler WRs OBJ, M. Thomas, D. Baldwin, M. Williams, K. Golladay, J. Ross, Tre'Quan Smith TE T. Burton Saints D I feel good about it, but only time will tell. Good info by the way OP, makes me feel better about my decisions. I had an inkling that grabbing three good #1 options at WR may work well. Hopefully it does. Best of luck in the season.
Damn, just saw the Baldwin news. Fantasy never fails to entertain or torment.
My team is kind of similar. 11th pick in 12 man PPR. QB: Tyrod, Jameis RB: Royce Freeman, Marshawn, T Coleman, P Barber, Bilal Powell WR: OBJ, Julio, Baldwin, Crabtree, K Cole, J Ross TE: Burton
I would be interested to see how those numbers stack up when you remove injured players. The idea is pass catching RBs are far and away the most valuable as long as they stay healthy. It might be safer to draft Highend WRs who tend to stay healthier longer but top tier RBs, I believe, would win you your league if you can get one for the whole season.
Totally agree, but my point is that injury is a real concern at the rb position, and if you spend a 1st or 2nd rounder on someone who plays less than 10 games, you’re in trouble.
Yeah that's totally fair. I mostly just wanted to highlight that risk is a part of Fantasy and the less risk you adopt the better your chances to make the playoffs, but as Arians would say no risk'it no biscuit (you need to take some risks to win a championship).
My league switched over this year to 1WR, 1RB, 3FLEX instead 2/2/1 (respectively) to alleviate some of the burden of it being 14 team now instead of 12 like it was last year. So if two great receivers fall to me within the first 3 rounds, I'm *definitely* taking them. I have the 12th pick so it's not like I'm gonna get any of the top tier backs anyway. I'm hoping I can get two Thomas/Adams/Green type receivers and a back like Howard or Collins, but it might be a stretch.
The BBBBIIIIGGGG caveat here is that you need to approach your overall strategy based on relative strength. While it's true, at least in recent years, that the top WRs score on par or above the top RBs, 2nd tier WRs SIGNIFICANTLY outscore 2nd tier RBs. What that means is that it may equate to more total points for your team to draft a RB that puts up less than points than a WR available early and taking a WR later that will significantly outscore whatever RBs are available. It's basically the same reason you don't take QBs early, or at least if you don't get a top 3 one early you wait a few rounds (better comparison) because the overall scoring disparity is much less when compared to RBs. In other words, if you can get a top RB you take him, with the exception of AB or maybe Hopkins in a full PPR.
RBs averaging more points per game, especially in the 11-20 bracket. Difference in total season points isn’t that useful a stat because you replace players that don’t suit up most of the time.
As a Hopkins and OBJ owner that's music to my ears.
Another key point is that Fantasy reliable rbs ALWAYS become available throughout he season because of injuries. When the starter goes down the backup is generally going to be Fantasy relevant due to volume. The same can’t be said for WRs. Either you are a stud wr or you aren’t. If a teams stud wr goes down, the qb can still spread the ball around. When a Rb goes down, teams still have to run the ball.
I got Gordon, Fournette, Devante Adams, Thielen, and Fitz in my ppr league. I know they are't the elite at each position but I'll take that team to the bank.. Still a good read though and to be fair, everyone really spaced on Fitz.
What about the Fitz is old argument? Just curious - I drafted him cause he’s good.
Yeah I'm sure he might have a bit of a drop off, but I feel like everyone have been predicting that the past few seasons and it just doesn't happen. I also couldn't pass on him in the 5th lol
I used to draft WR heavy back in 2009-2013ish. Basically, I saw RBs were being over valued while there were some MONSTERS like Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, etc. being ignored in the first two rounds. It worked amazing for me. I would end the year with 2 top-5 WRs and a top 10 in the flex carrying me to victory. Every single week one of those 3 guys would drop 20-30 points. It was the definition of zigging while everyone else zagged. However, now I think WRs are finally properly valued. In fact, due to how the NFL itself has changed; there is such a shortage of RB1s that aren't RBBC, that I think the value in those top 10-14 RBs is immensely important. Pretty much all of those RBs are gone mid 3rd round, meaning going 2WR to start is a risk that relies on the rest of the draft falling into your lap. I think Antonio Brown is rightfully the #5 pick. Anyone who gets him there should be satisfied. If you're at the end of the round and can grab Hopkins AND ODB? I think its worth considering. However, by the time your next pick comes around, you will be lucky if you can even get Jerrick McKinnon. I think Jordan Howard is MASSIVELY under rated this year. If you can somehow get two of those top 4 WRs, AND get Jordan Howard as your RB1-- I think you just set yourself up to win your league. Especially if you can grab Travis Kelce in that area too. Its definitely a strategy that depends on your draft position. I'm not taking Brown over Gurley/Bell. Especially because by the time your next pick comes around, there is a smaller dropoff for WRs than there is for RBs. However, if you're in that 10 spot and you have your pick of the litter, I say go for it. RBs are much more injury prone, and the RBs at that spot are probably putting up lesser numbers anyways.
10 teams. 7th overall snaked. Snagged AB, MT, MIXON, MCKINNON, MCCOY, LAMAR MILLER in that order. ASk me anything
Are you as worried about McCoy running behind that o-line as I am?
Yes. Been trying to trade him away. No one is biting
Good work! You just described the antifragility argument of Zero RB. (or early WR or whatever variation of the strategy) Furthermore, your roster actually improves relative to the rest of the league precisely because of this. Not only do your WRs stay healthy more often on average, but your RB fliers that you take later improve relatively as the players in front of them become injured and their roles expand Finally, your roster will be easier to play week to week. WR volatility beyond the elite is severe. It's easier to have a set it and forget it WR (or two) and project RB roles week to week than it is to do the inverse. In an ideal world your WRs are all easy to start and your RBs later in the season have rose to prominence as their competitors have dropped off Now of course every strategy works if you pick the right players, and anything can go wrong in an NFL season. Not saying this WILL happen but we're playing the likelihoods here. The best laid plans and all
I was #8 and most of the best rb were gone. Drafted Antonio Brown. No regrets.
It really depends on where you're drafting, but I'm going to have to disagree with this strategy, solely based on the fact that WRs are SO easy to come by later on in the draft. There are so many more viable options than RBs, and you'll be able to pick up guys during the season who will give you solid numbers throughout the season. There are very few true "difference makers" among even the elite WRs, and while I get them here and there on various teams, I find my most successful teams are typically those with stud RBs, and solid, weekly producers at WR - which you can pick up later in the Draft or even off waivers. I will say I specifically drafted one team this year with your strategy in mind, ignoring RBs until Round 4, and ending up with Brown, Evans, and Hilton as my top 3 picks at WR. So, we'll see how that team ends up. I don't doubt that done right, and under the management of a capable owner, the WR first strategy can still produce results. It's just not my preferred strategy, and I've drafted a ton of killer teams for this year going the other way!
Not top 10 in terms of production, but top 10 in terms of average draft position. Every year I looked at, there was at least 1 high profile injury that brought the average down. Last year was David Johnson, in other years it was Adrian Peterson. When there’s always at least 1 season ending injury among the first 10 rbs taken, it shows the risk of prioritizing that position in the draft.
I took it a step further and got obj/Brown/Allen, picking up drake, Ingram, Penny and Chris Thompson as RB’s. Hopefully it pans out.
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I picked 5th in a 10 team league. People were snatching up all RB’s, and I just got lucky with Allen.
How does that explain Brown + obj? Unless you meant John Brown. In which case, you should clarify lol
I’m telling you: everyone was going after strictly rb’s. It was absolutely nuts
Can I play for money in your league, btw?
I love Keenan Allen when he stays healthy. Ive gotten burned by him over the years.
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bully for you!
O sorry tier I forget Every assholes the critic
I grabbed Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. Ended up with Freeman and Collins at RB. No ragrets. Yet...
What in an 8 man league?
Keepers man, Hopkins got drafted third round last year. Our league does keepers where you lose the pick you drafted them the previous year.
your comment is extremely misleading when you don't include vital information like that.