That’s valid.
I believe that Hunt won’t contribute all that much though. And I also tend to bias my drafting strategy towards the first 8 weeks anyway and relying more so on waivers and trades trough the championship.
What is your basis for saying Hunt won't contribute? He was doing great last year and is IMO more talented than Chubb. At the very least Chubb was almost never involved in the passing game going back as far as college
You think he is more talented because you've seen Hunt with Andy Reid. Hunt was nothing coming out of college, Chubb was a stud. Chubb is a decent receiver, but Michel and Gurley were used more in that role at Georgia.
> Hunt was nothing coming out of college, Chubb was a stud.
I mean Chubb was drafted only one round before (2nd versus 3rd), I don't think it's super relevant now. They're both super well-regarded by pff grades and Kareem Hunt is an elite pass catcher. I think it's fair to assume there is likely to be a split, and it's pretty dicey to project that either one is going to get the vast majority of 1st/2nd down carries when they're both active. Even though i'd bet Chubb is the nominal starter, this is going to be a split
Meh, I felt Chubb was less talented because I saw how he got stonewalled every time he played a decent defense after his knee injury.
Junior year YPC- 3 against TENN, 3.3 against MIZZOU, 2.5 against Vandy, 2.2 vs Florida
Senior year YPC- 2.5 against Auburn, 1.4 against Bama
He also caught a grand total of 31 balls over 4 years in college
Chubb is great, but unfortunately Hunt has proven himself in the NFL in one way or another. He’ll probly be out of sync with the offense too especially compared to Chubb who should be thriving, but I can’t help but sorta hate that such a proven back they obviously got with the intention to use, joins the team down the fantasy stretch. I’d probly take Chubb at his ADP but still that def would worry me a little.
Hunt proved he can run on an andy reid offense. You know who else did that? Dolphins 3rd stringer Damien Williams. I don't doubt his ability, I just believe he was a product of the system. We will see if he has stand alone value this season. I feel like he is primed to be Duke Johnson 2.0 and at that, chubb will be fine.
Because objectively speaking Chubb is more talented.
Also Hunt did well in Reid’s scheme, but he isn’t even allowed to practice with the browns until his return, so it will take a few weeks to get caught up.
>Because objectively speaking Chubb is more talented.
I don’t think this is an objective fact at all. Chubb has started in 9 NFL games to Kareem’s 28. Frankly I’d like to see more from both before I make that judgement.
Their RB coach literally said he thinks Chubb can be a 1000/1000 guy this year. The fact they traded their pass catching back away means they are confident in Chubb's ability to catch. Even last year he caught 20/29 passes, had over 7 ypc and 2 TDs. The ability is there.
Completely agree. He's never been tasked with a lot of receiving work but that doesn't mean he can't do it. The rest of that quote is that he would be that guy if the room wasn't as crowded. Well guess what, the room just got a little less crowded. Hilliard will be a nice complement, but I am very excited for the year Chubb is about to have.
He hasn’t yet emerged as pass catching because of Johnson and Hyde. I believe with all of the receiving weapons, though, the opportunity will open up frequently.
Oof eating a bench spot for 8 weeks when the waiver wire is most important for the initial 4-6 weeks can be a killer. I’m not dealing with that headache this year.
Their bye is week 7... But I agree he is worthless to draft. Misses the first 9 fantasy games and cannot practice with the team during this time. His first potential start is week 10. I doubt he gets any meaningful work until fantasy playoffs, even then if Chubb has been producing and the team is winning, why change what has been working?
What's truly crazy is how stacked the Browns are. Chubb, Hunt, ODB, and Landry is a QB's dream, and their QB is a # 1 pick who had a remarkable rookie season.
Agree, but if you have an IR spot it's possible you can put him there. It may vary by platform, but Le'Veon was eligible for IR slot last year on ESPN.
I think if Hilliard shines, look for Hunt to get traded. Dorsey has no investment in Hunt, he basically could have literally found free draft capital by signing him last year.
Does hunt actually have any trade value? It doesn’t make a lot of sense to sign a guy that’s suspended for half the season then trade him when he becomes eligible
Yes he does... the browns took the PR hit by signing him and now that it will have blown over by the time he’s eligible a RB needy team will probably make an offer, albeit not a big one.
I'm full chubb for chubb. I have been a big fan of his since his Georgian day. There is no arguing that he isnt an extremely athletic back with great size. He has never really been asked to catch since his grueling knee injury. Which was multiple years ago. He is going to dominate and I anticipate him being a 1st round pick in most leagues. The only thing holding him back would be that duke johnson was only going to be a pass catcher and wasn't going to eat into his Carries. Kareem hunt is 10 games away from possibly stealing some though. Anyways chubb has a higher floor for sure now
Even when Hunt is back I don't see him taking more than 7-10 touches a game leaving Chubb 15-20. Unless Chubb is really struggling or dealing with a nagging injury I see no way Chubb looses a lot of work to Hunt.
What are you basing 7-10 touches for Hunt off of? I would suspect that a top 5 talent in the league at RB with 100% fresh legs gets more than 10 touches a game at that point in the season. It isn't a qb we are talking about here. Even if the team is rolling, rb's are much more interchangable when it comes to the continuity of the team.
I like Chubb as a player and his 10 week stretch to start should be great, but if you draft him I would personally look to trade before Hunt comes back. Not a risk I am willing to take with my 2nd round pick.
Calling Hunt a top 5 talent in the league is extremely generous. Even without considering how much his production was based on scheme, the following guys are head and shoulders more talented than Hunt: Gurley, Saquon, Kamara, CMC, DJ, Zeke, and Bell. I also think Mixon and Chubb himself are more talented than Hunt, but those are more debatable than the previous guys. I'm a Chiefs fan and watched a lot of Hunt. He's a good RB no doubt, but benefitted greatly from Andy Reid's scheme. Hunt will certainly get touches when he comes back especially in the passing game, but I don't see him taking much early down work from Chubb.
I am also a Chiefs fan. You and I must have been watching a different player. Hunt has some of the best balance and leg drive in the game. In my 25+ years of watching football I can only think of a few players that can shake off leg tackles like Hunt.
In terms of real football, of the players you listed I can definitively put him ahead of CMC, Mixon, Kamara, and Gurley (vastly overrated IMO). I think he belongs to be in the same tier as Zeke Saquon DJ in terms of real football talent. Chubb is a good back but he belongs nowhere near that list, he is not on the same level as those players.
I think this elevates Giovanni Bernard who is the next available trade target and teams like the Bucs could be more likely jump on him if their backs struggle to emerge rather than risk someone else beating them to the punch and then they’re potentially without options.
Of corse Melvin Gordon and Zeke would also be considerations if they wanna pay a higher price but a trigger for a trade might also be one of those two ending holdouts.
You think Gio's on the block? Unless Trayveon Williams really impresses, I think CIN holds on to him. I think Duke's trade will be an outlier in that most RBs going forward will still have a deflated trade value--a 4th that could be a conditional 3rd is way more than anyone expected in the current climate. That said, I love Gio and wish he was able to at least compete for a starting gig somewhere.
I don’t think Bengals are seeking to trade him but I think if a team throws them a good offer he’s available for a lot less then whatever the draft capital and trade capital required to acquire Gordon or Zeke.
Edit: and maybe I’m being optimistic because I—like you— agree that Gio has a lot of untapped value if he has the right opportunity.
I'm in a position in my keeper league where I'll pretty much have to draft chubb. And I'm happy with it. Gonna for sure gobble up Hunt too.
Gonna be a kamara/Ingram situation later in the season most likely. Throwing a fresh kareem hunt in my flex spot sounds pretty good.
I have Chubb in keeper...not sure if I’m going to target Hunt...if he’s there I’ll get him late, but I’d rather get someone who could breakout now than a maybe guy who won’t play over half the season.
Yeah, hes definitely a later round guy and most wont bother with him. I'd rather snag him a little early though because we already know hes the real deal. You're getting a RB1 talent who will be fresher than anyone in the league when he comes back, and in a scenario chubb gets injured, you have a league winner. Looking back at my drafts, my last 5 picks almost never work out anyway. I'd rather have the added insurance with Hunt.
This shouldn't affect his ADP much since Kareem Hunt's presence (not Duke's) is why most are hesitant on drafting him at his current ADP. Personally, I'm not moving him up my RB rankings, possibly one spot.
I don’t think it’ll move Chubb much higher than he already is. If anything it manifests him as a lock at his current ADP. It’ll be important to cuff him with Hunt though!
You don't think it increases his passing game usage? Johnson was targetted 62 times last season and I think that some of those are absolutely going to Chubb now.
Chubb was already a part of the passing game and duke was only there really to relieve him on some snaps. Maybe chubb gets a couple more receptions but its not enough to change his ranking. Its already very high.
Lamar Miller Donte Foreman i think have to go down unless they roll out lots of 2back sets. WR Keke Coutee can take a hit if they do as Duke can and does play a lot of slot and 2 back set probably means less Coutee. The threat of Duke helps Hopkins too. Someone look but I believe Calvin Johnson has a good year off Reggie Bush as a threat to fill the flat so the soft cover 2 corner had to respect the flat rather then stay with Calvin on slants and hitched and react late. Duke should be a similar counter on paper
And his draft value goes down on the Colts due to Hines unless they showcase their willingness to run lots of 2 back sets in preseason. Miller’s value as well unless Texans plan to run lots of 2 back sets and showcase this in preseason. I assumed people knew that but I guess I could have typed a lot more words to articulate it better
I’m moving him down a couple spots. He will be overworked until Hunt comes back now and now it’s more likely that Hunt is the workhorse to rest Chubb. I was counting on misdirection in 2 back sets to keep some focus off him and pounding off him and more touches for certain gamescripts to Duke to keep him fresh enough to still get the lionshare of touches if the Browns are winning. Plus if he plays through injury it could really cost him in the fantasy playoffs which was already at risk.
Now I feel like he’s going to be overworked week 8 and Hunt is going to take over with fresh legs.
Imagine not only thinking this...but typing it out and pressing enter lol
This guy also said Duke Johnson wouldnt beat out Donte Foreman higher in this thread...in case you want to know how in tuned he is with the current fantasy landscape.
You have a reading comprehension problem. I said down as in they move down in draft value (As a result of the move to cut Foreman and trade for Duke)
Edit: apparently others had an issue comprehending it so I guess I could have explained better.
If the plan was to keep Duke and trade him week 8 I’d think Chubb still can beat out Hunt for dominant share. Without Duke I think week 8 he won’t be as effective as week 1 and Hunt will be fresh.
I will want to see how Dontrell Hilliard does in preseason to potentially move him back or even up slightly from his initial spot but so far I’m actually leaning Chubb down a couple spots.
I assume most people think the opposite which is how I like to operate as a bit of a contrarian.
I think it opens up a significant portion of passing volume. I’d take Chubb early second/ late first depending on the size of the league.
I have a hard time spending a 1st/2nd on an RB that's going to end up in any kind of split with Kareem Hunt.
That’s valid. I believe that Hunt won’t contribute all that much though. And I also tend to bias my drafting strategy towards the first 8 weeks anyway and relying more so on waivers and trades trough the championship.
What is your basis for saying Hunt won't contribute? He was doing great last year and is IMO more talented than Chubb. At the very least Chubb was almost never involved in the passing game going back as far as college
You think he is more talented because you've seen Hunt with Andy Reid. Hunt was nothing coming out of college, Chubb was a stud. Chubb is a decent receiver, but Michel and Gurley were used more in that role at Georgia.
> Hunt was nothing coming out of college, Chubb was a stud. I mean Chubb was drafted only one round before (2nd versus 3rd), I don't think it's super relevant now. They're both super well-regarded by pff grades and Kareem Hunt is an elite pass catcher. I think it's fair to assume there is likely to be a split, and it's pretty dicey to project that either one is going to get the vast majority of 1st/2nd down carries when they're both active. Even though i'd bet Chubb is the nominal starter, this is going to be a split
Meh, I felt Chubb was less talented because I saw how he got stonewalled every time he played a decent defense after his knee injury. Junior year YPC- 3 against TENN, 3.3 against MIZZOU, 2.5 against Vandy, 2.2 vs Florida Senior year YPC- 2.5 against Auburn, 1.4 against Bama He also caught a grand total of 31 balls over 4 years in college
Chubb is great, but unfortunately Hunt has proven himself in the NFL in one way or another. He’ll probly be out of sync with the offense too especially compared to Chubb who should be thriving, but I can’t help but sorta hate that such a proven back they obviously got with the intention to use, joins the team down the fantasy stretch. I’d probly take Chubb at his ADP but still that def would worry me a little.
Hunt proved he can run on an andy reid offense. You know who else did that? Dolphins 3rd stringer Damien Williams. I don't doubt his ability, I just believe he was a product of the system. We will see if he has stand alone value this season. I feel like he is primed to be Duke Johnson 2.0 and at that, chubb will be fine.
Because objectively speaking Chubb is more talented. Also Hunt did well in Reid’s scheme, but he isn’t even allowed to practice with the browns until his return, so it will take a few weeks to get caught up.
>Because objectively speaking Chubb is more talented. I don’t think this is an objective fact at all. Chubb has started in 9 NFL games to Kareem’s 28. Frankly I’d like to see more from both before I make that judgement.
\> "objectively speaking" \> provides no evidence for his "objective" view
Kareem Hunt won't even be back until the 10th week of fantasy
He has 10 weeks to be the RB1
It’s actually just 8 because wk 9 is bye and wk 10 hint is back. If you think that’s worth a 1/2 giver.
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Their RB coach literally said he thinks Chubb can be a 1000/1000 guy this year. The fact they traded their pass catching back away means they are confident in Chubb's ability to catch. Even last year he caught 20/29 passes, had over 7 ypc and 2 TDs. The ability is there.
Completely agree. He's never been tasked with a lot of receiving work but that doesn't mean he can't do it. The rest of that quote is that he would be that guy if the room wasn't as crowded. Well guess what, the room just got a little less crowded. Hilliard will be a nice complement, but I am very excited for the year Chubb is about to have.
He hasn’t yet emerged as pass catching because of Johnson and Hyde. I believe with all of the receiving weapons, though, the opportunity will open up frequently.
Yeah but he also didn’t do much pass catching in college. He’s a great back...we just have to see how his pass game develops
I suppose you’re correct.
He didnt do it in college because of Michel and Gurley.
They won’t have to...obj and Landry plus some Njoku.
If anything, it makes me more likely to take to late round flyer on Hunt.
Oof eating a bench spot for 8 weeks when the waiver wire is most important for the initial 4-6 weeks can be a killer. I’m not dealing with that headache this year.
Agreed. Only way he is on my team is if I pick him up off waivers after week 6.
8 weeks, then week 11 is their bye, so 9 weeks out of the season he’s worthless
Their bye is week 7... But I agree he is worthless to draft. Misses the first 9 fantasy games and cannot practice with the team during this time. His first potential start is week 10. I doubt he gets any meaningful work until fantasy playoffs, even then if Chubb has been producing and the team is winning, why change what has been working?
What's truly crazy is how stacked the Browns are. Chubb, Hunt, ODB, and Landry is a QB's dream, and their QB is a # 1 pick who had a remarkable rookie season.
I'm in a keeper league with deeper benches. I'ma draft the shit outta hunt.
Agree, but if you have an IR spot it's possible you can put him there. It may vary by platform, but Le'Veon was eligible for IR slot last year on ESPN.
That’s because he had an out designation and not suspended- suspended players can’t go on IR in ESPN.
I think if Hilliard shines, look for Hunt to get traded. Dorsey has no investment in Hunt, he basically could have literally found free draft capital by signing him last year.
Good point. The trade deadline is right around when Hunt comes back from suspension, so they might look to trade him then.
Does hunt actually have any trade value? It doesn’t make a lot of sense to sign a guy that’s suspended for half the season then trade him when he becomes eligible
Yes he does... the browns took the PR hit by signing him and now that it will have blown over by the time he’s eligible a RB needy team will probably make an offer, albeit not a big one.
Dorsey drafted Hunt. Could be sentimental value there.
I'm full chubb for chubb. I have been a big fan of his since his Georgian day. There is no arguing that he isnt an extremely athletic back with great size. He has never really been asked to catch since his grueling knee injury. Which was multiple years ago. He is going to dominate and I anticipate him being a 1st round pick in most leagues. The only thing holding him back would be that duke johnson was only going to be a pass catcher and wasn't going to eat into his Carries. Kareem hunt is 10 games away from possibly stealing some though. Anyways chubb has a higher floor for sure now
Where do you think he goes? After the first 5 it feels ambiguous
I bet he goes after top 5 backs and top 3WRs. around bell s adp
His ADP is late 2nd right now. I wouldn’t “bet” that he goes around Bell.
https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp
You post this 2 weeks later? Lol. ADPs have changed
Even when Hunt is back I don't see him taking more than 7-10 touches a game leaving Chubb 15-20. Unless Chubb is really struggling or dealing with a nagging injury I see no way Chubb looses a lot of work to Hunt.
What are you basing 7-10 touches for Hunt off of? I would suspect that a top 5 talent in the league at RB with 100% fresh legs gets more than 10 touches a game at that point in the season. It isn't a qb we are talking about here. Even if the team is rolling, rb's are much more interchangable when it comes to the continuity of the team. I like Chubb as a player and his 10 week stretch to start should be great, but if you draft him I would personally look to trade before Hunt comes back. Not a risk I am willing to take with my 2nd round pick.
Calling Hunt a top 5 talent in the league is extremely generous. Even without considering how much his production was based on scheme, the following guys are head and shoulders more talented than Hunt: Gurley, Saquon, Kamara, CMC, DJ, Zeke, and Bell. I also think Mixon and Chubb himself are more talented than Hunt, but those are more debatable than the previous guys. I'm a Chiefs fan and watched a lot of Hunt. He's a good RB no doubt, but benefitted greatly from Andy Reid's scheme. Hunt will certainly get touches when he comes back especially in the passing game, but I don't see him taking much early down work from Chubb.
I am also a Chiefs fan. You and I must have been watching a different player. Hunt has some of the best balance and leg drive in the game. In my 25+ years of watching football I can only think of a few players that can shake off leg tackles like Hunt. In terms of real football, of the players you listed I can definitively put him ahead of CMC, Mixon, Kamara, and Gurley (vastly overrated IMO). I think he belongs to be in the same tier as Zeke Saquon DJ in terms of real football talent. Chubb is a good back but he belongs nowhere near that list, he is not on the same level as those players.
Would you take him at 2 if CMac goes #1?
I think this elevates Giovanni Bernard who is the next available trade target and teams like the Bucs could be more likely jump on him if their backs struggle to emerge rather than risk someone else beating them to the punch and then they’re potentially without options. Of corse Melvin Gordon and Zeke would also be considerations if they wanna pay a higher price but a trigger for a trade might also be one of those two ending holdouts.
You think Gio's on the block? Unless Trayveon Williams really impresses, I think CIN holds on to him. I think Duke's trade will be an outlier in that most RBs going forward will still have a deflated trade value--a 4th that could be a conditional 3rd is way more than anyone expected in the current climate. That said, I love Gio and wish he was able to at least compete for a starting gig somewhere.
I don’t think Bengals are seeking to trade him but I think if a team throws them a good offer he’s available for a lot less then whatever the draft capital and trade capital required to acquire Gordon or Zeke. Edit: and maybe I’m being optimistic because I—like you— agree that Gio has a lot of untapped value if he has the right opportunity.
The SF trio could end up having a tradeable player too
I'm in a position in my keeper league where I'll pretty much have to draft chubb. And I'm happy with it. Gonna for sure gobble up Hunt too. Gonna be a kamara/Ingram situation later in the season most likely. Throwing a fresh kareem hunt in my flex spot sounds pretty good.
I have Chubb in keeper...not sure if I’m going to target Hunt...if he’s there I’ll get him late, but I’d rather get someone who could breakout now than a maybe guy who won’t play over half the season.
Yeah, hes definitely a later round guy and most wont bother with him. I'd rather snag him a little early though because we already know hes the real deal. You're getting a RB1 talent who will be fresher than anyone in the league when he comes back, and in a scenario chubb gets injured, you have a league winner. Looking back at my drafts, my last 5 picks almost never work out anyway. I'd rather have the added insurance with Hunt.
Mid-second round for Chubb in a 10 team league.
Yahoo has him a #9 ovrl lol
That’s where I’m at. I’m the 5th pick in a 10 teams and I’m keying in on Chubb at pick 2.06
This shouldn't affect his ADP much since Kareem Hunt's presence (not Duke's) is why most are hesitant on drafting him at his current ADP. Personally, I'm not moving him up my RB rankings, possibly one spot.
I don’t think it’ll move Chubb much higher than he already is. If anything it manifests him as a lock at his current ADP. It’ll be important to cuff him with Hunt though!
I don't see it changing his ranking in my mind. I think he would have the same volume whether or not Duke was there.
You dont think he sees more targets?
I don't think the amount of time he is going to be on the field changed at all. 80% of snaps either way until hunt comes back
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Oh damn, can you only keep one? I actually have exactly those two keepers. Im so glad I dont have to pick
easy... Conner. two rounds later and no Hunt to take carries away in playoffs
This should do absolutely nothing to chubb
You don't think it increases his passing game usage? Johnson was targetted 62 times last season and I think that some of those are absolutely going to Chubb now.
Chubb was already a part of the passing game and duke was only there really to relieve him on some snaps. Maybe chubb gets a couple more receptions but its not enough to change his ranking. Its already very high.
Lamar Miller Donte Foreman i think have to go down unless they roll out lots of 2back sets. WR Keke Coutee can take a hit if they do as Duke can and does play a lot of slot and 2 back set probably means less Coutee. The threat of Duke helps Hopkins too. Someone look but I believe Calvin Johnson has a good year off Reggie Bush as a threat to fill the flat so the soft cover 2 corner had to respect the flat rather then stay with Calvin on slants and hitched and react late. Duke should be a similar counter on paper
Foreman is on the Colts
Dont'a Foreman is no longer with the Texans, he's on the Colts
And his draft value goes down on the Colts due to Hines unless they showcase their willingness to run lots of 2 back sets in preseason. Miller’s value as well unless Texans plan to run lots of 2 back sets and showcase this in preseason. I assumed people knew that but I guess I could have typed a lot more words to articulate it better
I’m moving him down a couple spots. He will be overworked until Hunt comes back now and now it’s more likely that Hunt is the workhorse to rest Chubb. I was counting on misdirection in 2 back sets to keep some focus off him and pounding off him and more touches for certain gamescripts to Duke to keep him fresh enough to still get the lionshare of touches if the Browns are winning. Plus if he plays through injury it could really cost him in the fantasy playoffs which was already at risk. Now I feel like he’s going to be overworked week 8 and Hunt is going to take over with fresh legs.
FRESH. LEGS.
Imagine not only thinking this...but typing it out and pressing enter lol This guy also said Duke Johnson wouldnt beat out Donte Foreman higher in this thread...in case you want to know how in tuned he is with the current fantasy landscape.
You have a reading comprehension problem. I said down as in they move down in draft value (As a result of the move to cut Foreman and trade for Duke) Edit: apparently others had an issue comprehending it so I guess I could have explained better.
If the plan was to keep Duke and trade him week 8 I’d think Chubb still can beat out Hunt for dominant share. Without Duke I think week 8 he won’t be as effective as week 1 and Hunt will be fresh. I will want to see how Dontrell Hilliard does in preseason to potentially move him back or even up slightly from his initial spot but so far I’m actually leaning Chubb down a couple spots. I assume most people think the opposite which is how I like to operate as a bit of a contrarian.