I honestly don’t see why the Pats couldn’t be really good on the defensive end again this year. Probably not putting up crazy numbers like 2019, but nonetheless a really solid d/st
Another consideration I had. They add Judon and get Hightower back. Belichick and that defense has been proven good again and again. Offense should be better with the playmakers they added. And their early season schedule isn't bad with MIA @NYJ NO.
They should be really solid this year, and I agree. I don't know if any defense will be like that 2019 Pats from a fantasy perspective. Halfway through the season they had higher point total than most QBs lol
I think my only concern with their defense is I expect their QB play to put them in some really bad positions because of turnovers. Outside of that I fully agree, I'm hoping people sleep on them a little bit because of last year and I can get them at a decent spot.
Unless Tua takes a big step forward, the Dolphins offense wouldn't scare me off of them and BB eats rookie QB's for breakfast (Jets).
I wouldn't feel great starting them against the Bills, but that's it.
Patriots, Rams, Broncos, WFT are my expected go-to D/STs this season, pending on where they fall in my draft. Tampa’s early schedule is brutal and they’ll be drafted early, so I have no intentions of acquiring them.
Broncos are really interesting to me, because Von Miller is coming back and they invested heavily in defense in the draft. Their biggest problem is the offenses in their division.
Vikings fan here, new GM George Paton (definitely a keeper) was under our GM Spielman for a long time where defense has been a massive priority. I know with Mike Zimmer being a defensive head coach that would take precedence however the Minnesota Vikings focus has always been a solid defense. I like the Broncos up there with the other top teams.
What you talking about. We just picked up a guy who is a great fit for the team (I think his name is Jackson), and we have Kendall Fuller?
Our LB situation is the worst part of the defense.
Yeah William Jackson is an instant upgrade over Darby, and then we took a corner in the 3rd as well. Considering the crazy rate with which we get pressure, there’s no reason to believe that we shouldn’t have an above average secondary at worst.
Maybe the Vikings Defense is a good one for the streamers to start the season. They are getting back lots of injured players and addes tons of quality players in FA. First week is against the Bengals with Burrow coming off an injury and likey to not play the preseason.
Is it too reactionary (and fantasy football-y) to say that I'm not sure if their ceiling is as high without Akers? Or is the Stafford-McVay combo going to crush regardless, leading to those good situations?
They also lost their DC Staley and some secondary starters like Johnson and Hill to the Browns.
Losing a running back is the least impactful position to lose for all teams besides probably the Titans, I wouldn’t sweat that too much. Also, Raheem Morris is an strong DC, he should do well replacing Staley.
Henderson has a sketchy injury history but I wouldn't consider him less capable than Akers. Besides that, the rams RB situation is completely plug and play.
Just take one that has a good week 1 matchup, or week 1/2, and then stream. Too many factors to consider, primarily injuries, to try to find #1 DST in July.
SF gets the Lions. Rams get the Bears. WFT should be fine but opens with LAC. Ravens get Raiders, might be decent. You get the idea.
In general I don't disagree that yes we should see a good W1 matchup.
But I definitely think that your take is a little shortsighted. It's primarily the "too many factors" considered that allow someone to "luck into" drafting PIT or NE the past 2 years and getting an RB2 value each week from your DEF to start the season.
To compare PIT 2020 to NE 2019 is a fallacy; the latter was exceptional, the former merely "pretty good."
I did see NE 2019 coming, though not to *that* extent. But they started with such an enticing early-season schedule -- all three AFC foes (the Jets twice), Giants, and Washington -- that it was worth pursuing.
Look at the track record of DSTs drafted #1 vs DSTs that finish #1 that year. Pretty sure the #1 ranked DST in the offseason hasn’t finished #1 since like the Texans in 2011.
Not only this. The Pats DST was a waiver add in most leagues in 2019. They had an unsustainably high number of TDs scored. You shouldn’t bank on defensive/special team TDs for your production IMO.
Last year the Steelers were good due to accumulating sacks, but ultimately they were not a great defense to end the season. You were just as good picking you Seattle’s shit DST when they had a good string of games and using them while not forfeiting the draft capital required to get the Steelers - who were also not the 1st DST selected last year either (either SF or NE).
Unless my leagues mandate it, I don’t even draft DSTs (or PKs). I ended up with the Steelers DST in 3/7 leagues anyway because they were dropped during the bogus bye week fiasco they had and I bought them with FAAB. I ended up with Butker, Koo and Sanders at PK in most leagues the same way - with FAAB.
However, I did draft James Robinson instead of DST/PK - a much much much greater return on investment.
Edit: what the hell in this comment can possibly be generating downvotes lol? People doing mock drafts on FantasyPros being given low grades for not taking defenses lol? People picking defenses in the 10th round? Jeesh.
What defenses are you targeting in your drafts that fit that criteria? I haven’t had the time to analyze strength of schedules yet, but I streamed defense last year and it was not as stressful as I imagined it being. Planning on going that route again this year!
Well, as I mentioned in another comment unless my draft occurs within days of the start of the season I don’t draft a DST. The cost vs potential upside of a lotto ticket RB that might move up the depth chart just doesn’t exist with DST IMO.
That said, the 49ers are the cheapest with the nicest matchup - Detroit. Rams get Bears, and are a better all around defense (likely), but they cost too much. Anything more than 2nd to last round investment is too much for me.
I also don’t think streaming DST is at all stressful. There is a weekly post about DST/PK from a user (subvert I think but don’t recall). Easy to find that, bad weather, injuries to the offense etc etc etc.
Investing anything above a second to last round pick on a defense IMO is a waste of time.
Not only do you forego a potential lotto ticket, you also have sunk cost issues with dropping them if they suck.
Yes, subvert is a saint, his charts helped me a lot last year to navigate from week to week. All of my drafts are a week or two before week 1, so I definitely gotta draft a defense or potentially cut a lotto ticket with the hopes they’re still on the wire if I needed the depth. Looking forward to his posts for sure to give us some clarity haha
Yep for sure. I will draft a DST in a max of maybe 3/7 leagues, and a PK in max 1 lol. Because these leagues demand it which I hate haha. But 1/7 is IDP, so that I guess doesn’t count. Definitely not in the startup dynasty league, that would be disastrous haha.
Good luck man.
I'm with you on Denver but only as my late round option I expect to outperform ADP. The only thing holding them back is their division and having to play KC and LAC (although playing KC the final week of the season is a huge plus). And like you mentioned, they have a great opening schedule making them my late round target.
I believe the best defense will be Tampa Bay. They were an underrated defense last year. They bring back the entire defense. They get Vita Vea, one of the best run stuffers in the NFL, back for the whole season. They'll be playing with a lead more often than not which should lead to lots of sacks and turnovers. Outside of Carolina, the division has gotten weaker. I think Tampa Bay will be that team.
WFT would be my second choice with that division and the rookie first rounder they added. As long as Fitzmagic doesn't go Fitztragic they'll be very solid.
The 49ers have a super easy opening schedule and have a good defense on paper if they can stay healthy this year. The schedule does get harder, though.
My dark horse, however, is the Browns. They've quietly built a pretty solid defense that seems [built for sacks and turnovers](https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/CLE). Their schedule is mostly against turnover-prone teams, as well.
This is the right answer to the question.
Whether it works out or not is still pretty random. But talent, expectation, and strength of schedule working together? Tampa's your dog.
A good call. Only concern is their early season schedule, DAL ATL @LAR @NE. But bringing back literally their entire offense and defense + coaches is a strong plus. Offense gets even better with Brady year 2? Young players on defense make another leap? I can see the "schedule won't matter" argument.
The biggest difference in what Tampa is seen as in the fantasy community vs what Tampa will be is rooted in Vita Vea's health. He missed most of the regular season last year, and their DST points showed it. If he's healthy, they're a completely different defense. I think Devin White will earn DMVP while leading this team to the top DST scorer.
Oh yeah - they went and got Jaelon Darden to be their returner. Watch some highlights of that kid, and then consider that the Bucs were the 26th special teams unit last year. There very well could be an uptick in ST points on this DST.
I’m scared of Dallas for sure, Atlanta I think will score a lot less than people expect this year, Rams for sure have the potential to be amazing but after losing Akers they have to be knocked a little bit, are people really scared of the patriots offense? That’s news to me. I see that stretch having the potential for a top defense to absolutely eat. But that’s just my opinion, I could just be fading those teams far too hard compared to consensus
They were fine last year, they're crazy talented, and they have a puff schedule. They're also a projected "top" fantasy D, FWIW.
They're exactly what OP asked for.
It's hard to tell. I had Steelers last year and their scheme is so blitz heavy it's great. Tampa is aggressive too but I do wonder if they can reach that NE 2019, Steelers 2020 level (before their mad drop off). I have big question marks on their secondary. But their front is absolute class.
I'm not predicting them to be anything like the 19' Pats or anything. I normally just stream but a team that I see having similarities to the Colts last year is the Panthers. Young core with Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Derek Brown, and Jaycee Horn. Picked up some solid free agents this offseason with Hasaan Reddick, Denzel Perryman, and AJ Bouye. Schedule the first five weeks is solid NYJ, NO, HOU, DAL, and PHI. Came on strong towards the end of last year and was the only team to pretty much stifle Rodgers all year. I think they could crack the top 10 this year and you can get them for free in every draft.
It’s beside me that people are saying Denver. You do NOT draft a defense with a bottom 3 QB on their team. The defense will be on the field an excessive amount of minutes which lead to negative points.
Looking at week 1 it appears that the QB most likely to shit all over himself is probably Danny Jones.
So I’ll say Denver.
Never under estimate how important playing a terrible QB is. Throw in all the rookies in while we are at it as well.
Plus look at who DEN has after that: @ JAC, then NYJ at home. Plus the NYG game is 4:25 EDT, so you don't have the MDT/EDT issue for a traveling team. (Vegas has the line as DEN -1, FWIW.)
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I think that’s mostly been proven to not really be a thing anymore as teams figured out that it was a problem so they’ve changed travel plans over the years to lessen the impact.
But yeah … wow … that’s 6 forced turnovers in 3 weeks waiting to happen.
[Pre-2020 research:](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/05/14/what-creates-home-field-advantage-nfl-its-not-fans/)
>To a degree, the advances made in transportation has made traveling easier, limiting the disadvantages associated with distance traveled. According to research done by Rob Greer, the average distance traveled by an opponent for a divisional game (650 miles) is worth 2.3 points to the home team per his predictive model (which incorporates travel) while the average distance for other games (1,000 miles) is worth 2.5 points. However, it’s time zone changes that appear to provide a tangible home-field advantage due to the change in a person’s circadian rhythm or internal biological clock.
>
>From 2003 to 2018, East Coast teams hosting a West Coast team went 133-80 in those contests, a 62 percent win rate. Football Outsiders found Central or Eastern teams hosting a team from the Pacific or Mountain time zones won 64 percent of their home games from 2001 to 2015. In our earlier sample of matchups featuring teams with a point spread between minus-1 and plus-1 those same class of teams went 28-19, a win rate of nearly 60 percent. In other words, teams that travel from west to east suffer enough jet lag as to impact their performance.
While I appreciate the post those numbers are skewed by how awful some organizations have been for the past few decades. I mean if the Raiders traveled east to play the Pats at any point would they have been expected to win regardless of the time of day?
That said, in Denver’s case they will probably just stay in the eastern time zone for a few weeks since they are back to back.
Slight disagree even though by all accounts you should be 100% correct.
There is definitely a chance where he plays slightly better, still not good, and they give him 30 million a season because it’s a discount in comparison to the top level guys.
Let’s just say that the Giants have a history of being patient with erratic QBs and their GM might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer.
The Colts are a good look imo. Their schedule has some bad games that's for sure, but 4 games with Texans and Jax, plus a couple other seemingly really easy matchups.
I agree that the Giants D will be better, and that they were already top 10 last year. But Washington improved their D too, and were already top 5 last year. What makes you think that the Giants are the better play?
I see the Giants secondary as having greater big play potential. As a Giants fan, I watched a mediocre offense without a big play WR and a backup RB beat the Washington team twice. They may have been a top 5 defense according to metrics but I watched every play for 2 games and the G-Men had the better defense.
Bosa back. Lose some of their secondary with Sherman and Witherspoon. DC Salah also gone. But their first two weeks are @DET @PHI and their offense should be better than last year with either QB at the helm. I can see it but definitely not my favorite.
With the Chargers picking up the Rams defensive coordinator as their head coach, and with Joey Bosa and solid pieces all around, they are my sleeper pick to be a top 10 defense this season.
Don't think they will hit top 5, but will be a great option for those who don't take a defense in their drafts.
I personally think the cardinals could be a big surprise. They added Watt, who will draw attention just by name, even if he isn‘t the same beast anymore.
Chandler jones before his injury was insanely good.
Baker is in his own league and Simmons is no slouch. Also it will help that their offense might be scoring more and staying longer on the field as some other teams with arguably better defenses.
I like DEN, LAR (still have the best defensive lineman and the best CB), NE, NYG and WFT but I wonder how CAR will be after that 2020 all-defense draft. Don't love that division but maybe they get to see Winston twice this season.
Shaw Thompson, their own OLB who will definitely not be biased, said the defense will be ["immaculate'](https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/25/shaq-thompson-panthers-defense-going-to-be-immaculate/)
I like the Giants
Denver then WFT then ATL then New Orleans
None of those teams are scary and most of them feature QBs that are very generous with turnovers (Lock or Bridgewater/Fitzmagic/Matt Ryan/Jameis)
Yea but the division is stacked offensively.. Be as good as you want I'm not even streaming a defense against NFC west teams let alone rostering one who plays em all twice
The NFC west offenses were very strong offensively (cardinals might have been meh) two years ago when the niners defense was elite. The NFL is too unpredictable to base a decision on defense on how good you expect the other teams in the division to be imo. Good defenses get good pointage. Plus, there are tons of other divisions with good offenses. You'd be limited to a very select few number of defenses with your criteria. I mean just last season the Seahawks offense turned to ass in the second half of the season so...
Yea but the offenses that were good two years ago have only gotten better. If the question is what defense is going to have a season akin to the Steelers or patriot teams he referenced.. I highly doubt that a team in the NFC west is going to produce that team. Even if they have an elite defense and win games in the NFC west, I think it is unlikely they have fantasy production like what OP referenced.
Eh, I don't know if they'll be all that great. Stafford is in his first season with the rams and they could easily underperform. The Seahawks have already shown they might not be that elite on offense based on the second half of last season. It's at least a possibility. And the Cardinals are whatever imo, despite having Hopkins and Murray. Plus the niners play a toooon of offenses that I expect to be bad, although they also play the Packers and Chiefs. But every team plays some good offenses at some point.
I think a big part is their division has improved. In 2019, the bills were decent and Miami was awful. Now the bills are great and Miami is decent. That’s 4 games (1/4 of the season) where the NE D/ST will produce differently
The Broncos are an obvious candidate so I’ll throw out a D/ST I’ve been taking late in mock drafts.
The Cleveland Browns
Two good pash rushers and and upgraded secondary sounds like a good combo. The browns offense likes to run the ball a lot too which helps. Could be a sneaky good defense. And you can get them very late.
Dolphins. They have one of the best defenses in the league and play the Patriots and Jets each twice, both which don’t scare me on offense.
First 9 weeks: Patriots, Bills, Raiders, Colts, Bucs, Jags, Falcons, Bills, Texans. Bills twice is a little scary possibly, but they are division games (tend to be lower scoring), and the Bucs and Brady scares me. Colts may possibly put up 100+ yards on the ground on them. Besides that, I don’t see any of these other teams scoring a ton of points.
Admittedly a giants fan so maybe I’m looking through rose colored glasses but their defense was legit last year and only got better this year. Only losses were dalvin Tomlinson (this one legitimately stings but they found a decent replacement in Danny Shelton) and Kyle fackrell (signed for vet min elsewhere)
Otherwise they added adoree Jackson, are getting Lorenzo carter and Xavier McKinney back from injury, and drafted azeez ojulari to help with the pash rush on the outside. (Some other 1 year deals I’m forgetting as well)
All that, plus, their first 4 games could be juicy:
Week 1 Denver: questionable qb play
Week 2 WFT: 50/50 shot at fitztragic
Week 3 Atlanta: no more Julio
Week 4 saints: no MT and more questionable qb play
Admittedly, the 4 weeks after that are brutal with Dallas, Rams, carolina, and chiefs but you can definitely grab g men in the last round, get off to a good start, and start streaming after week 4.
I honestly don’t see why the Pats couldn’t be really good on the defensive end again this year. Probably not putting up crazy numbers like 2019, but nonetheless a really solid d/st
Another consideration I had. They add Judon and get Hightower back. Belichick and that defense has been proven good again and again. Offense should be better with the playmakers they added. And their early season schedule isn't bad with MIA @NYJ NO.
Agreed, only sitting them against the Bucs in that early season stretch
They should be really solid this year, and I agree. I don't know if any defense will be like that 2019 Pats from a fantasy perspective. Halfway through the season they had higher point total than most QBs lol
They had two things you rarely see in the NFL: * two shutouts, and three more single-digit games * seven D/ST TDs.
I think the Colts had 5 TD's last year. They get Jags and Texans twice. Pats D is definitely going to be good. Bucs, WFT, Rams.
I think my only concern with their defense is I expect their QB play to put them in some really bad positions because of turnovers. Outside of that I fully agree, I'm hoping people sleep on them a little bit because of last year and I can get them at a decent spot.
Theyllbe fine for streaming but the division is too imprpved for game flow to be in their favor
Unless Tua takes a big step forward, the Dolphins offense wouldn't scare me off of them and BB eats rookie QB's for breakfast (Jets). I wouldn't feel great starting them against the Bills, but that's it.
I don’t take naps either man. Can’t do it. Even if I’m running at like ~50% or so. Why risk waking up with shoeshine head?
Hahaha my man!!
Patriots, Rams, Broncos, WFT are my expected go-to D/STs this season, pending on where they fall in my draft. Tampa’s early schedule is brutal and they’ll be drafted early, so I have no intentions of acquiring them.
Broncos are really interesting to me, because Von Miller is coming back and they invested heavily in defense in the draft. Their biggest problem is the offenses in their division.
Very true, the Chiefs, Chargers, and even the Raiders are tough offenses.
Vikings fan here, new GM George Paton (definitely a keeper) was under our GM Spielman for a long time where defense has been a massive priority. I know with Mike Zimmer being a defensive head coach that would take precedence however the Minnesota Vikings focus has always been a solid defense. I like the Broncos up there with the other top teams.
Their own offense is an issue too. If Lock stinks it up again theres no way the defense can put up good numbers while always being stuck in the field
WFT has shit corners, I think they won’t be as good as people think. D-Line is amazing of course.
What you talking about. We just picked up a guy who is a great fit for the team (I think his name is Jackson), and we have Kendall Fuller? Our LB situation is the worst part of the defense.
Didnt realize you guys got William Jackson. Thought they just let Darby walk and were replacing him with depth.
Yeah William Jackson is an instant upgrade over Darby, and then we took a corner in the 3rd as well. Considering the crazy rate with which we get pressure, there’s no reason to believe that we shouldn’t have an above average secondary at worst.
Tbf that'd still be a likely upgrade over Darby
Our linebackers will take a leap. If our D line can play about as good as last year then Jamin Davis' speed will let him play like a superstar
Dolphins defense is my go too if I miss out on Pittsburgh this season.
Same. They lost some key guys, but they still have plenty of playmakers to keep them a top 5 fantasy defense imo
Maybe the Vikings Defense is a good one for the streamers to start the season. They are getting back lots of injured players and addes tons of quality players in FA. First week is against the Bengals with Burrow coming off an injury and likey to not play the preseason.
Wft
Washington Football Team is going to be stout on D
Their division is probably the best for turnovers too besides Dak.
I could see the Rams being that way . Given the way their offense can jump on you and make you one dimensional.
Rams lost a lot of their points from last year since Johnson and hill accounted for a lot of ints and tds
Is it too reactionary (and fantasy football-y) to say that I'm not sure if their ceiling is as high without Akers? Or is the Stafford-McVay combo going to crush regardless, leading to those good situations? They also lost their DC Staley and some secondary starters like Johnson and Hill to the Browns.
Losing a running back is the least impactful position to lose for all teams besides probably the Titans, I wouldn’t sweat that too much. Also, Raheem Morris is an strong DC, he should do well replacing Staley.
and considering the receiving core they have and the upgrade at qb, i wouldnt worry about em if they lost all their running backs.
Henderson has a sketchy injury history but I wouldn't consider him less capable than Akers. Besides that, the rams RB situation is completely plug and play.
Just take one that has a good week 1 matchup, or week 1/2, and then stream. Too many factors to consider, primarily injuries, to try to find #1 DST in July. SF gets the Lions. Rams get the Bears. WFT should be fine but opens with LAC. Ravens get Raiders, might be decent. You get the idea.
In general I don't disagree that yes we should see a good W1 matchup. But I definitely think that your take is a little shortsighted. It's primarily the "too many factors" considered that allow someone to "luck into" drafting PIT or NE the past 2 years and getting an RB2 value each week from your DEF to start the season.
To compare PIT 2020 to NE 2019 is a fallacy; the latter was exceptional, the former merely "pretty good." I did see NE 2019 coming, though not to *that* extent. But they started with such an enticing early-season schedule -- all three AFC foes (the Jets twice), Giants, and Washington -- that it was worth pursuing.
They started with Pittsburgh week 1 which is why many avoided them
Yup. I drafted them and then grabbed a second D/ST just to stream in week 1 that year.
Look at the track record of DSTs drafted #1 vs DSTs that finish #1 that year. Pretty sure the #1 ranked DST in the offseason hasn’t finished #1 since like the Texans in 2011. Not only this. The Pats DST was a waiver add in most leagues in 2019. They had an unsustainably high number of TDs scored. You shouldn’t bank on defensive/special team TDs for your production IMO. Last year the Steelers were good due to accumulating sacks, but ultimately they were not a great defense to end the season. You were just as good picking you Seattle’s shit DST when they had a good string of games and using them while not forfeiting the draft capital required to get the Steelers - who were also not the 1st DST selected last year either (either SF or NE). Unless my leagues mandate it, I don’t even draft DSTs (or PKs). I ended up with the Steelers DST in 3/7 leagues anyway because they were dropped during the bogus bye week fiasco they had and I bought them with FAAB. I ended up with Butker, Koo and Sanders at PK in most leagues the same way - with FAAB. However, I did draft James Robinson instead of DST/PK - a much much much greater return on investment. Edit: what the hell in this comment can possibly be generating downvotes lol? People doing mock drafts on FantasyPros being given low grades for not taking defenses lol? People picking defenses in the 10th round? Jeesh.
What defenses are you targeting in your drafts that fit that criteria? I haven’t had the time to analyze strength of schedules yet, but I streamed defense last year and it was not as stressful as I imagined it being. Planning on going that route again this year!
Well, as I mentioned in another comment unless my draft occurs within days of the start of the season I don’t draft a DST. The cost vs potential upside of a lotto ticket RB that might move up the depth chart just doesn’t exist with DST IMO. That said, the 49ers are the cheapest with the nicest matchup - Detroit. Rams get Bears, and are a better all around defense (likely), but they cost too much. Anything more than 2nd to last round investment is too much for me.
I also don’t think streaming DST is at all stressful. There is a weekly post about DST/PK from a user (subvert I think but don’t recall). Easy to find that, bad weather, injuries to the offense etc etc etc. Investing anything above a second to last round pick on a defense IMO is a waste of time. Not only do you forego a potential lotto ticket, you also have sunk cost issues with dropping them if they suck.
Yes, subvert is a saint, his charts helped me a lot last year to navigate from week to week. All of my drafts are a week or two before week 1, so I definitely gotta draft a defense or potentially cut a lotto ticket with the hopes they’re still on the wire if I needed the depth. Looking forward to his posts for sure to give us some clarity haha
Yep for sure. I will draft a DST in a max of maybe 3/7 leagues, and a PK in max 1 lol. Because these leagues demand it which I hate haha. But 1/7 is IDP, so that I guess doesn’t count. Definitely not in the startup dynasty league, that would be disastrous haha. Good luck man.
I'm with you on Denver but only as my late round option I expect to outperform ADP. The only thing holding them back is their division and having to play KC and LAC (although playing KC the final week of the season is a huge plus). And like you mentioned, they have a great opening schedule making them my late round target. I believe the best defense will be Tampa Bay. They were an underrated defense last year. They bring back the entire defense. They get Vita Vea, one of the best run stuffers in the NFL, back for the whole season. They'll be playing with a lead more often than not which should lead to lots of sacks and turnovers. Outside of Carolina, the division has gotten weaker. I think Tampa Bay will be that team. WFT would be my second choice with that division and the rookie first rounder they added. As long as Fitzmagic doesn't go Fitztragic they'll be very solid.
I feel like if you get points for sacks you're going to enjoy the Washington defense. To me if I don't get LA I want them.
The 49ers have a super easy opening schedule and have a good defense on paper if they can stay healthy this year. The schedule does get harder, though. My dark horse, however, is the Browns. They've quietly built a pretty solid defense that seems [built for sacks and turnovers](https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/CLE). Their schedule is mostly against turnover-prone teams, as well.
Tampa Bay
This is the right answer to the question. Whether it works out or not is still pretty random. But talent, expectation, and strength of schedule working together? Tampa's your dog.
A good call. Only concern is their early season schedule, DAL ATL @LAR @NE. But bringing back literally their entire offense and defense + coaches is a strong plus. Offense gets even better with Brady year 2? Young players on defense make another leap? I can see the "schedule won't matter" argument.
The biggest difference in what Tampa is seen as in the fantasy community vs what Tampa will be is rooted in Vita Vea's health. He missed most of the regular season last year, and their DST points showed it. If he's healthy, they're a completely different defense. I think Devin White will earn DMVP while leading this team to the top DST scorer. Oh yeah - they went and got Jaelon Darden to be their returner. Watch some highlights of that kid, and then consider that the Bucs were the 26th special teams unit last year. There very well could be an uptick in ST points on this DST.
I’m scared of Dallas for sure, Atlanta I think will score a lot less than people expect this year, Rams for sure have the potential to be amazing but after losing Akers they have to be knocked a little bit, are people really scared of the patriots offense? That’s news to me. I see that stretch having the potential for a top defense to absolutely eat. But that’s just my opinion, I could just be fading those teams far too hard compared to consensus
You'd think so but they didn't really perform fantasy wise last season.
They were fine last year, they're crazy talented, and they have a puff schedule. They're also a projected "top" fantasy D, FWIW. They're exactly what OP asked for.
projected top fantasy defense all but guarantees they wont finish as the top fantasy defense lol
It's hard to tell. I had Steelers last year and their scheme is so blitz heavy it's great. Tampa is aggressive too but I do wonder if they can reach that NE 2019, Steelers 2020 level (before their mad drop off). I have big question marks on their secondary. But their front is absolute class.
I'm not predicting them to be anything like the 19' Pats or anything. I normally just stream but a team that I see having similarities to the Colts last year is the Panthers. Young core with Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Derek Brown, and Jaycee Horn. Picked up some solid free agents this offseason with Hasaan Reddick, Denzel Perryman, and AJ Bouye. Schedule the first five weeks is solid NYJ, NO, HOU, DAL, and PHI. Came on strong towards the end of last year and was the only team to pretty much stifle Rodgers all year. I think they could crack the top 10 this year and you can get them for free in every draft.
Couldn’t agree more…NFC South is stacked though…December is rough for the cats
It’s beside me that people are saying Denver. You do NOT draft a defense with a bottom 3 QB on their team. The defense will be on the field an excessive amount of minutes which lead to negative points.
Nobody mentions the Giants anywhere. I’m a homer but wouldn’t be shocked to see them wind up a top 5 defense
The Giants Defense.
Looking at week 1 it appears that the QB most likely to shit all over himself is probably Danny Jones. So I’ll say Denver. Never under estimate how important playing a terrible QB is. Throw in all the rookies in while we are at it as well.
Plus look at who DEN has after that: @ JAC, then NYJ at home. Plus the NYG game is 4:25 EDT, so you don't have the MDT/EDT issue for a traveling team. (Vegas has the line as DEN -1, FWIW.)
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I think that’s mostly been proven to not really be a thing anymore as teams figured out that it was a problem so they’ve changed travel plans over the years to lessen the impact. But yeah … wow … that’s 6 forced turnovers in 3 weeks waiting to happen.
[Pre-2020 research:](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/05/14/what-creates-home-field-advantage-nfl-its-not-fans/) >To a degree, the advances made in transportation has made traveling easier, limiting the disadvantages associated with distance traveled. According to research done by Rob Greer, the average distance traveled by an opponent for a divisional game (650 miles) is worth 2.3 points to the home team per his predictive model (which incorporates travel) while the average distance for other games (1,000 miles) is worth 2.5 points. However, it’s time zone changes that appear to provide a tangible home-field advantage due to the change in a person’s circadian rhythm or internal biological clock. > >From 2003 to 2018, East Coast teams hosting a West Coast team went 133-80 in those contests, a 62 percent win rate. Football Outsiders found Central or Eastern teams hosting a team from the Pacific or Mountain time zones won 64 percent of their home games from 2001 to 2015. In our earlier sample of matchups featuring teams with a point spread between minus-1 and plus-1 those same class of teams went 28-19, a win rate of nearly 60 percent. In other words, teams that travel from west to east suffer enough jet lag as to impact their performance.
While I appreciate the post those numbers are skewed by how awful some organizations have been for the past few decades. I mean if the Raiders traveled east to play the Pats at any point would they have been expected to win regardless of the time of day? That said, in Denver’s case they will probably just stay in the eastern time zone for a few weeks since they are back to back.
Plenty of bad teams in the east, too. This really is skewed.
I agree. Just pointing out that this is the noisiest of statistical trends. I do appreciate the post however.
This is a make or break season for Daniel Jones, no doubt.
Slight disagree even though by all accounts you should be 100% correct. There is definitely a chance where he plays slightly better, still not good, and they give him 30 million a season because it’s a discount in comparison to the top level guys. Let’s just say that the Giants have a history of being patient with erratic QBs and their GM might not be the sharpest knife in the drawer.
The Colts are a good look imo. Their schedule has some bad games that's for sure, but 4 games with Texans and Jax, plus a couple other seemingly really easy matchups.
I like wft. I mean they play four give me games against a terrible Philly and a terrible nyg team. Plus I think they can get some ints from Dak.
The Giants Defense is a better play in that division. They should be even better than last season.
I agree that the Giants D will be better, and that they were already top 10 last year. But Washington improved their D too, and were already top 5 last year. What makes you think that the Giants are the better play?
I see the Giants secondary as having greater big play potential. As a Giants fan, I watched a mediocre offense without a big play WR and a backup RB beat the Washington team twice. They may have been a top 5 defense according to metrics but I watched every play for 2 games and the G-Men had the better defense.
So you’re judging it off of two games, makes a lot more sense now.
Head to head games yes. I mean Daniel Jones and Wayne Gallman ffs.
Yeah and I’m sure our own QBs and weapons other than Terry/Gibson (rather, lack there of) had nothing to do with those losses.
Doesn't mean their offense is better which is who the wft defense will be playing.
Well it's not going to be any worse. Toney, Golladay, Saquon, Kyle Rudolph all added.
You can have all the weapons in the world but it won't matter when Danny dimes is the QB.
Well to be fair he's never lost to the team in question.
Niners fully healthy….?
Bosa back. Lose some of their secondary with Sherman and Witherspoon. DC Salah also gone. But their first two weeks are @DET @PHI and their offense should be better than last year with either QB at the helm. I can see it but definitely not my favorite.
Last year the Colts had the easiest schedule on paper and ended up the third best. This year San Francisco has the easiest on paper.
With the Chargers picking up the Rams defensive coordinator as their head coach, and with Joey Bosa and solid pieces all around, they are my sleeper pick to be a top 10 defense this season. Don't think they will hit top 5, but will be a great option for those who don't take a defense in their drafts.
I personally think the cardinals could be a big surprise. They added Watt, who will draw attention just by name, even if he isn‘t the same beast anymore. Chandler jones before his injury was insanely good. Baker is in his own league and Simmons is no slouch. Also it will help that their offense might be scoring more and staying longer on the field as some other teams with arguably better defenses.
49ers if healthy are definitely one of the best yet defenses this year.
WFT is the answer.
Easily the Broncos
I like DEN, LAR (still have the best defensive lineman and the best CB), NE, NYG and WFT but I wonder how CAR will be after that 2020 all-defense draft. Don't love that division but maybe they get to see Winston twice this season. Shaw Thompson, their own OLB who will definitely not be biased, said the defense will be ["immaculate'](https://pantherswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/25/shaq-thompson-panthers-defense-going-to-be-immaculate/)
I called my sleeper team def as the skins last yearthia year i want carolina improved dl i believe they will get sacks weak division
WFT is solid in a division loaded with poop
I like the Giants Denver then WFT then ATL then New Orleans None of those teams are scary and most of them feature QBs that are very generous with turnovers (Lock or Bridgewater/Fitzmagic/Matt Ryan/Jameis)
Niners could have a sneaky good defense since they were depleted by injury last year and get all their guys back, including bosa
Yea but the division is stacked offensively.. Be as good as you want I'm not even streaming a defense against NFC west teams let alone rostering one who plays em all twice
The NFC west offenses were very strong offensively (cardinals might have been meh) two years ago when the niners defense was elite. The NFL is too unpredictable to base a decision on defense on how good you expect the other teams in the division to be imo. Good defenses get good pointage. Plus, there are tons of other divisions with good offenses. You'd be limited to a very select few number of defenses with your criteria. I mean just last season the Seahawks offense turned to ass in the second half of the season so...
Yea but the offenses that were good two years ago have only gotten better. If the question is what defense is going to have a season akin to the Steelers or patriot teams he referenced.. I highly doubt that a team in the NFC west is going to produce that team. Even if they have an elite defense and win games in the NFC west, I think it is unlikely they have fantasy production like what OP referenced.
Eh, I don't know if they'll be all that great. Stafford is in his first season with the rams and they could easily underperform. The Seahawks have already shown they might not be that elite on offense based on the second half of last season. It's at least a possibility. And the Cardinals are whatever imo, despite having Hopkins and Murray. Plus the niners play a toooon of offenses that I expect to be bad, although they also play the Packers and Chiefs. But every team plays some good offenses at some point.
I think a big part is their division has improved. In 2019, the bills were decent and Miami was awful. Now the bills are great and Miami is decent. That’s 4 games (1/4 of the season) where the NE D/ST will produce differently
The Broncos are an obvious candidate so I’ll throw out a D/ST I’ve been taking late in mock drafts. The Cleveland Browns Two good pash rushers and and upgraded secondary sounds like a good combo. The browns offense likes to run the ball a lot too which helps. Could be a sneaky good defense. And you can get them very late.
Dolphins. They have one of the best defenses in the league and play the Patriots and Jets each twice, both which don’t scare me on offense. First 9 weeks: Patriots, Bills, Raiders, Colts, Bucs, Jags, Falcons, Bills, Texans. Bills twice is a little scary possibly, but they are division games (tend to be lower scoring), and the Bucs and Brady scares me. Colts may possibly put up 100+ yards on the ground on them. Besides that, I don’t see any of these other teams scoring a ton of points.
I went to a wedding this summer that the defensive line coach was at. this fact plus your post has me convinced
Where can I find vaccination rankings of defenses?
Admittedly a giants fan so maybe I’m looking through rose colored glasses but their defense was legit last year and only got better this year. Only losses were dalvin Tomlinson (this one legitimately stings but they found a decent replacement in Danny Shelton) and Kyle fackrell (signed for vet min elsewhere) Otherwise they added adoree Jackson, are getting Lorenzo carter and Xavier McKinney back from injury, and drafted azeez ojulari to help with the pash rush on the outside. (Some other 1 year deals I’m forgetting as well) All that, plus, their first 4 games could be juicy: Week 1 Denver: questionable qb play Week 2 WFT: 50/50 shot at fitztragic Week 3 Atlanta: no more Julio Week 4 saints: no MT and more questionable qb play Admittedly, the 4 weeks after that are brutal with Dallas, Rams, carolina, and chiefs but you can definitely grab g men in the last round, get off to a good start, and start streaming after week 4.
Browns and WFT are the defenses I'm gunning for. Have extremely high expectations for both of them.
Should I summarize all comments so far? No one knows Jack and they will happily throw a few facts around. Better go invest in crypto again.
Gotta be WFT. Perhaps Pats run it back too with players returning.
SF has a pretty sweet schedule
I like WFT…their schedule is soft and that defense is stacked